From Bloomberg:
Home Value Highest Since ’07 as U.S. Houses Make Cash
More American homeowners will be able to use their properties as cash machines again after real estate equity jumped last year by the most in 65 years.
Property owners recaptured $1.6 trillion as home values climbed to the highest levels since 2007. The amount by which the value of the houses exceeds their underlying mortgages rose to $8.2 trillion last year, a gain of 25 percent, according to Federal Reserve data.
An expanding group of homeowners is able to get cash from their properties as banks show more willingness to make home equity loans with the market’s recovery. Originations for so- called junior, or second, mortgages should rise 10 percent to almost $83 billion this year, from about $75 billion in 2012, said Shaun Richardson, a vice president at Icon Advisory Group, a mortgage analytics firm in Greensboro, North Carolina. About 6 percent of lenders eased equity-mortgage standards at the end of 2012, the most in 18 months, according to the Fed.
“Lenders are starting to come back into the marketplace,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate Inc. “We’re not going back to the wild, Wild West we saw during the real estate boom, but we are going to see more people spending their equity.”
Americans went on a spending spree in the five years before the 2006 peak of the real estate market, tapping about $800 billion of their rising equity to spend on everything from cars and televisions to debt consolidation and college tuition.
…
“Owners who have been sitting in their homes and watching their equity go up will be more likely to borrow and to spend, and more likely to take risks like looking for another house,” said Craig Focardi, senior research director at CEB TowerGroup. “Having home equity is a financial cushion to the average consumer’s personal balance sheet.”
From Forbes:
The Housing Bubble Is Back
Wage growth, per se, shouldn’t drive housing prices. What we might expect is that wage growth drives rents and rents drive housing prices.
The wage-rent relationship, however, is not an iron law.
Matt Yglesias and Ryan Avent are famous for pointing out that rents – and hence housing prices – could be much lower in coastal cities if residents would abandon restrictive zoning laws. For example, Dallas and Philadelphia have roughly the same median household income, but home prices in Philly are much higher than in Dallas.
In general, if a fundamental driver – regulation, technology, preference – causes rents to eat up a higher portion of folks pay checks then rents and home prices will be higher.
To some extent the national rise in home prices is due to both technology and preferences driving more people to want to live in high rent areas like the Northeast Corridor.
Those same forces are leading some people to want to live in Houston, Austin and Raleigh-Durham, but because of looser regulation that simply translates into booming housing supply and a booming population rather than higher prices.
In addition, the relationship between rent and housing prices depends on interest rates – both the real portion and expected inflation. A house is like a utility company. Instead of providing power services, it provides shelter services and keeps you from having to pay rent.
…
If housing prices merely stabilized into a sustainable equilibrium with rents then the future probably wouldn’t be too dramatic. We would see a rapid shoot-up in home prices now, followed by a long period of little to no price growth as the Fed raised interest rates.
Rents would still be going up and monthly mortgage payments would rise with them to maintain equilbrium. However, mortgages payments would be rising because interest rates were rising, not because home prices were rising.
Eventually, the Fed would stop raising rates and home prices would start to drift higher and eventually home price growth would converge to rent growth.
It’s great that housing is on the rise, but something tells me it will still be a few years until we are back up to a level where sellers can profit from any improvements they have made. Now we are probably at break-even.
From Business Insider:
THE FUTURE OF HOUSING: Why Your House Won’t Get Back To Its Peak Value Until 2025
#3, hmmm…1985….2005……2025……seems about right
50-100 years in the wilderness.
No magic bullets, no recovery. All we’re seeing now is what happens when you transfuse a cadaver and hit it with 1,000,000 watts of electro-stim.
The garbage is still festering in the can. Until the bad debt is ratcheted out and written down, there will be no recovery.
Wait until our gubmint steals your money out of savings and checking accounts.
It will happen.
Wait until our gubmint steals your money out of savings and checking accounts.
What, you mean like through inflation?
grim (6)-
Why go to the trouble of creating inflation when you can just take shit from people?
Yep, they really stuck it to those rich Russians.
From Reuters:
“While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.
No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus’ banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis – Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus – have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia’s Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks’ largest depositors.
So while one could not withdraw from Bank of Cyprus or Laiki, one could withdraw without limitations from subsidiary and OpCo banks, and other affiliates?
Just brilliant.
And if there was any doubt that the entire process of destroying one entire nation was simply to punish Cyprus, it can be completely cleared away now:
ECB officials contacted Latvia, another EU country that has received large Russian deposits, to warn authorities against taking in Russian money fleeing Cyprus, two sources familiar with the contacts said.
“It was made clear to our Latvian friends that if they want to join the euro, they should not provide a haven for Russian money exiting Cyprus,” a euro zone central banker said.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus
7 – Because that’s the way it works when you are a sovereign nation with control over it’s own currency. It’s when you are not in control of the currency (e.g. EuroZone) that you have to resort to other means (begging, pleading, the creation and hiding of debt in esoteric investment vehicles, stealing, etc)
It’s the perfect crime really. Everyone can sit around patting each others backs (or circle jerk, your pick) over the fact that we’ve effectively slain the dragon of deflation. Well done gentlemen, disaster averted! The people rejoice (well, everyone but the savers, but who cares about them.)
Good Morning New Jersey
LPS showing NJ home prices up 2% year over year in January. Jan 2013 prices are sitting at 24.1% below peak. NY Metro up 5.2% year over year, and sitting at 16.5% below peak.
LPS Home Price Index Report: January Transactions
http://ochousingnews.com/news/will-the-deflating-bond-bubble-cause-housing-to-crash-again
13 – C’mon now, Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates and treasuries, they control the overnight/fed funds rates. Saying that they can directly control the treasury and mortgage markets is giving them way too much credit. They can influence it, sure, but they don’t control it.
All you need to look to is the geopolitical risk in the Eurozone and it’s no longer a wonder why US rates are low. Every time there is an external economic shock, money again rushes into US treasuries pushing down rates. Even internal shocks, and folks increasing their own savings rates pushes down treasuries.
Just look a Cyprus, another gift for homeowners looking to refinance or buyers looking to purchase. 10 year yields dropped a whole 15 basis points after the Cyprus concerns came to a head.
As long as the Eurozone conducts economic policy like a bunch of children, the US will continue to remain the beneficiary of that uncertainty.
NJ Revel casino files for bankruptcy.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-03-26/nj-revel-casino-files-for-bankruptcy
How to work the system 101
Alameda County supervisors have really taken to heart the adage that government should run like a business — rewarding County Administrator Susan Muranishi with the Wall Street-like wage of $423,664 a year.
For the rest of her life.
According to county pay records, in addition to her $301,000 base salary, Muranishi receives:
– $24,000, plus change, in “equity pay’’ to guarantee that she makes at least 10 percent more than anyone else in the county.
– About $54,000 a year in “longevity” pay for having stayed with the county for more than 30 years.
– An annual performance bonus of $24,000.
– And another $9,000 a year for serving on the county’s three-member Surplus Property Authority, an ad hoc committee of the Board of Supervisors that oversees the sale of excess land.
Like other county executives, Muranishi also gets an $8,292-a-year car allowance.
Muranishi has been with the county for 38 years, and she’s 63. When retirement day comes, she’ll be getting a lot more than a gold watch.
That’s because, according to the county auditor’s office, Muranishi’s annual pension will be equal to the dollar total of her entire yearly package — $413,000. She also has a separate executive private pension plan, for which the county chips in $46,500 a year.
Wage growth, per se, shouldn’t drive housing prices.
Very true for those who only want access to houses, but don’t intend to pay for them.
From MarketWatch:
Shadow inventory drops 18%, CoreLogic says
The so-called shadow inventory of potential housing supply was 2.2 million in January, down 18% from the same period of 2012 and down 28% from its peak, CoreLogic said Tuesday. Shadow inventory is defined by CoreLogic as the number of properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure and held as real estate owned by mortgage servicers, but not currently listed on multiple listing services. At the end of February, there were 1.94 million existing homes available for sale, according to separate data from the National Association of Realtors. “At this point in the recovery, we are seeing healthy reductions across much of the nation,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic, in a statement. “As we move forward in 2013, we need to see more progress in Florida, New York, California, Illinois and New Jersey which now account for almost half of the country’s remaining shadow inventory.”
It’s the perfect crime really. Everyone can sit around patting each others backs (or circle jerk, your pick)
Multi-taskers can do both.
Grim yeah deflation is dead, f*cking savers and the poor with low interest rates and 6 dollar gallons of milk. Glad I’m lactose intolerant, but with two toddlers at home we a blowing through it at a record rate. Probably would be cheaper to have my own cow.
Regarding the “shadow”, foreclosures in Essex County are still almost completely frozen. At least Passaic, Bergen, Morris are showing some activity. Go over to Essex and you see 50 scheduled, and only 1 actually makes it to the courthouse steps.
Huge volumes of properties being adjourned on a weekly basis, huge volumes being outright cancelled. And…I’ll say the most recent trend seems to be an uptick in adjournments due to Bankruptcy. “Settlement” seems to be popping up pretty frequently as well, maybe something worth tracking.
New legislation regarding accelerated foreclosures on abandoned properties becomes active on April 1st (ha ha), so we’ll see what kind of impact that has on the foreclosure velocity in the state.
Way back before we failed at financial innovation, we used to fail at regular innovation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GM_2300_engine
RE 12- Useless information. Backs out every low sales price. It is a realtor tool.
The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.
These streets have had the most foreclosure deeds recorded in the past 30 days across the United States.
Fontainebleau Blvd Miami, FL
Collins Ave Miami Beach, FL
Blue Heron Pl Carlsbad, CA
Nw 7th St Miami, FL
Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL
N 53rd St Milwaukee, WI
S Ocean Dr Hollywood, FL
N Sheridan Rd Chicago, IL
Sunrise Lakes Blvd Sunrise, FL
Ne 191st St Miami, FL
23 – If you think distressed sales are dragging down the numbers, remember that the Corelogic HPI reports both Including and Excluding Distressed figures for comparison:
Jan 2013 – NJ
Excluding Distressed was a 1.7% increase year over year
Including Distressed was a 1.5% increase year over year.
There have been occasions in the last 12 months when the “Including Distressed” stat was actually higher than the “Excluding Distressed” stat.
In fact, in January 2013 – The NY Metro area actually showed a higher YOY change in home prices when you included distressed sales:
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ MSA
Up 11.2% including distressed
Up 11.1% excluding distressed
From MarketWatch:
U.S. home prices rise; annual growth at 6-yr high
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index nudged up 0.1% to take the year-on-year gain to 8.1%, according to data released Tuesday. The level is the highest since Sept. 2010, and the growth rate is the strongest since June 2006. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by 1% in January, S&P added. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. On a monthly basis, the results were more varied, with nine cities seeing gains, Dallas remaining flat, and ten cities slipping. Las Vegas led the way with a 1.6% improvement, while Chicago and Detroit prices both dropped by 0.9%.
Pay your fair share…..
Scrapple Cannon says:
March 26, 2013 at 6:59 am
grim (6)- Why go to the trouble of creating inflation when you can just take shit from people?
Good, a real number. I find it funny that folks think home equity increases will lead to larger borrowing. That is no longer a mind set. Article WSJ yesterday saying that a unusually large amount of folks approved for SBA loans turned them down. Most like me say we dont want more debt. To quote WSJ I dont want Uncle Sam putting his hand in my pocket each month to pay off a loan and I dont want to take any loan that is a lien on my house.
SBA loans over 14k they put a lien on your house. Most folks said been there done that in RE boom. No more liens loans against house. I rather have house unfixed and own it rather fixed with a lien on it.
HELOCs to me are very expensive too. I bought my furnance and my wifes car both on zero percent loans and both cases only collateralized by object I purchased.
In the end I buying my beach condo mainly cash. 200K down and 100K no fee 1.99% HELOC vs. primary which adjusts after two years. Plan on paying HELOC off in at most three years and be done with it.
Even at todays rates who wants a 30 year loan that if you miss a few payments they sieze your house. That is so 1990s
grim says:
March 26, 2013 at 8:56 am
23 – If you think distressed sales are dragging down the numbers, remember that the Corelogic HPI reports both Including and Excluding Distressed figures for comparison:
Jan 2013 – NJ
Excluding Distressed was a 1.7% increase year over year
Including Distressed was a 1.5% increase year over year.
There have been occasions in the last 12 months when the “Including Distressed” stat was actually higher than the “Excluding Distressed” stat.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
20-city, SA – M/M 0.9 % 1.0 % 0.6 % to 1.3 % 1.0 %
20-city, NSA – M/M 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr 6.8 % 8.2 % 7.1 % to 8.9 % 8.1 %
Market Consensus before announcement
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) was up a very strong 0.9 percent for December’s 20-city. This rate was the best since last year’s second quarter when monthly gains averaged a recovery best 1.0 percent. The adjusted year-on-year rate for December was plus 6.9 percent which is the highest since the giant housing bubble back in 2006. Given last week’s gain in FHFA home prices of 0.6 percent, Case-Shiller is likely to post a notable gain also.
NY Metro Tiered Index
Low Tier (Under $258k)
January 2013 – Down 3.04% YOY
Mid Tier ($258k-$425k)
January 2013 – Up 1.04% YOY
High Tier (Over $425k)
January 2013 – Up 1.42% YOY
Aggregate
January 2013 – Up 0.61% YOY
S&P CS Condo Index – NY Metro
January 2013 – Up 10.2% YOY (this number seems crazy, but it would include Manhattan, so maybe)
I had a friend who lived there….must be west, away from the lake…..
JJ says:
March 26, 2013 at 8:53 am
These streets have had the most foreclosure deeds recorded in the past 30 days across the United States.
N Sheridan Rd Chicago, IL
Ex pat when I think of crappy GM engines nothing jumps to the forefront like the iron duke, the fact that they put it in a Camaro was akin to criminal behavior. for the 2300 saving 8 bucks on machining an engine while killing its longevity is so typically American Auto companies. Another favorite is the Olds 350 diesel which effectively turned an entire populace against a specific engine type.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GM_Iron_Duke_engine
http://www.sub5zero.com/great-moments-crappy-engine-history-oldsmobile-350-diesel-w-video/
High end condos had huge appreciation from December 1992 to December 2002. A boat load of owners sold in 4Q to avoid new cap gains rate. Prices artificially fell towards end of 2012 and then many buyers who sold for tax purposes rebought
So January 2012 selling was done by more buyers. Hence price increase. .
S&P CS Condo Index – NY Metro
January 2013 – Up 10.2% YOY (this number seems crazy, but it would include Manhattan, so maybe)
S&P CS is a 3 month snapshot, so the January print is based on activity that occurred in November, December, and January.
From Bloomberg:
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Climb by Most Since June 2006
Residential real estate prices increased in January by the most since June 2006, indicating the U.S. housing market strengthened at the start of the year.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities climbed 8.1 percent in January from the same month in 2012 after rising 6.8 percent in the year ended in December, the group said today in New York. The increase exceeded the 7.9 percent median forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Improving home values will lure more buyers into the real estate market by inducing current owners to put their properties up for sale and prompting builders to begin work on new dwellings. Historically low lending rates and a stronger labor market have helped fueled the rebound in housing, which is a source of strength for the economy.
“The housing market is looking pretty positive,” David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. Sloan was the best forecaster of homebuilding in the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Recently the pickup in demand has been so strong that it’s gone ahead of supply, and that’s made prices firm. People see house prices rising and think it might be a good time to buy.”
Junk Bonds paying low rate reserved for high rate borrowers
It doesn’t seem to have hurt CenturyLink. In mid-March, just a month after the company’s debt was downgraded by credit ratings agencies Moody’s and Fitch, CenturyLink sold $1 billion in new debt. And the rate on that debt, 5.625%, is one historically reserved for higher-rated borrowers.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/25/corporate-america-junk-ratings/?iid=Lead
Doom (5):
“Wait until our gubmint steals your money out of savings and checking accounts.”
They will also take money ro your 401k and your brokerage account. Not to mention how they will tax you based upon the value of your house. Of course it is for the greater good. Just ask the people of Cyprus.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/everyone-shocked-what-just-happened-and-why-just-beginning
The Gubmmint needs money and needs it bad. It will be very evident once the money printing stops.
Seems silly. Why would they want to do things the hard way. It’s proably easier for governments to increase revenue by increasing economic activity. It would be simpler just to implememt pro growth policies.
38.All Hype – Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:
March 26, 2013 at 9:52 am
Doom (5):
“Wait until our gubmint steals your money out of savings and checking accounts.”
They will also take money ro your 401k and your brokerage account. Not to mention how they will tax you based upon the value of your house. Of course it is for the greater good. Just ask the people of Cyprus.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/everyone-shocked-what-just-happened-and-why-just-beginning
The Gubmmint needs money and needs it bad. It will be very evident once the money printing stops.
Someone is shocked that equity and bond holders are wiped out in the case of a bank failure? Someone is shocked that depositors with deposits in excess of the guaranteed limits are lost when banks fail?
Folks, during the most recent banking crisis, depositors in the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA with savings accounts above the FDIC guaranteed limits LOST THEIR MONEY WHEN THE BANKS FAILED.
And you are shocked about an “investment bank” out on some godforsaken island, staffed by ex. Fisherman and Sheep Herders playing investment banker and currency trader? The shit I’m hearing that went on at Laiki makes Iceland look like a bunch of seasoned pros.
The resolution is essentially no different from how the FDIC disposed of the dozens of Georgia “banks” with assets far below deposits.
Bank ceased to exist, assets were transferred to a “good bank”, debt and equity was wiped out, and if you had accounts in excess of the FDIC guarantees, sorry Charlie.
Is CDARS the best way to spread a multi million dollar account to FDIC 100k limit?
“It would be simpler just to implememt pro growth policies.”
You realize Obama is our president. What pro-growth policies do you think will be proposed?
So then what are they waiting for? They have decades to do the right thing.
39.Brian says:
March 26, 2013 at 9:58 am
Seems silly. Why would they want to do things the hard way. It’s proably easier for governments to increase revenue by increasing economic activity. It would be simpler just to implememt pro growth policies.
have = had
From the OC Register, 2009 – You can easily re-write this to say “Depositors with accounts in excess of $100k were forced to pay a 50% tax on excess deposits as a result of the bank failure.
http://mortgage.ocregister.com/2009/03/20/depositor-losses-final-at-indymac/8077/
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said late Thursday it will not pay any more money to people who had deposits with IndyMac Bank above the FDIC insurance limits in effect when the bank was seized last year.
For money above insurance limits, the FDIC paid 50 cents on the dollar.
The FDIC sold all remaining deposits and branches as well as most assets of IndyMac to newly formed OneWest Bank in Pasadena. The regulator expects to lose $10.7 billion related to IndyMac.
Fran Quittel is one of the IndyMac depositors who had money above the insurance limits. The Emeryville resident had $133,000 in two business accounts with IndyMac. She previously lived in Pasadena, where IndyMac was based.
Quittel, who lost more than $15,000, is upset with the FDIC for several reasons. First she was under the impression that standard insurance was $100,000 per account, not per person, at each bank. (The standard limit has since been raised to $250,000). She said FDIC limits should be clearer and more prominent.
Limits are listed and explained on the FDIC’s Web site. FDIC Spokesman David Barr told me in an e-mail, “The FDIC dollar amount is on our sticker, which is on the front door of every bank we insure and at every teller station in America. The limit has been $100,000 since 1980.”
Krugmann now stumping for currency controls.
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/03/25/controls-controls-controls/
grim,
You are correct on all points. Though, the last I read certain bondholders (ECB) were given some sort of special protection and their priority is being placed above depositors. It is my understanding that bondholders are supposed to come after even uninsured depositors. I’ll post the link in a moment..
re: FDIC and Georgia Banks – Could be worse you could of had your money with Corzine. I know someone that lost quite a bit of money. JP Morgan just returned some of it.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34227_162-57575388/mf-global-trustee-jpmorgan-reach-agreement/
Is that why Corzine left Hoboken? Too easy for a good sniper in Manhattan to get the headshot over the Hudson? Wouldn’t even need to get on the path.
If you invested in Madoff’s fund you got the majority of your money back, if you bought Citigroup stock, you lost nearly everything. Who is the bigger villain?
Not if you doubled down when it hit a buck a share
Richard says:
March 26, 2013 at 10:25 am
If you invested in Madoff’s fund you got the majority of your money back, if you bought Citigroup stock, you lost nearly everything. Who is the bigger villain?
46 is a conflict on what I thought i knew about CDARS
First she was under the impression that standard insurance was $100,000 per account, not per person
The Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service (CDARS), is a private, patented, for-profit service that breaks up large deposits (from individuals, companies, nonprofits, public funds, etc.) and places them across a network of more than 3000 banks and savings associations around the United States. This allows depositors to deal with a single bank that participates in CDARS but avoid having funds above the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)deposit
insurance limits in any one bank.[1]The service can place multiple millions in deposits per customer and make all of it qualify for FDIC insurance coverage.[2] A customer can achieve a similar result, as far as FDIC insurance is concerned, by going to a traditional deposit broker or opening accounts directly at multiple banks (although depending on the amount this could require a lot more paperwork). With the CDARS service, the customer’s local bank sets the interest rate that will be paid on the entire deposit amount, and the customer gets one consolidated statement from that bank.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certificate_of_Deposit_Account_Registry_Service
By the way, to put things in perspective, Laiki Bank (Popular Bank of Cyprus) wasn’t all that much bigger than IndyMac when it collapsed.
My Banco Popular TRUPs are still paying me 11%, god bless Puerto Rico the best banking system in the land.
The make enough never to default but dont make enough to call their high coupon paying bonds.
grim says:
March 26, 2013 at 10:40 am
By the way, to put things in perspective, Laiki Bank (Popular Bank of Cyprus) wasn’t all that much bigger than IndyMac when it collapsed.
FDIC coverage is $250,000
How much insurance coverage does the FDIC provide?
The standard deposit insurance amount is $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category.
The FDIC insures deposits that a person holds in one insured bank separately from any deposits that the person owns in another separately chartered insured bank. For example, if a person has a certificate of deposit at Bank A and has a certificate of deposit at Bank B, the accounts would each be insured separately up to $250,000. Funds deposited in separate branches of the same insured bank are not separately insured.
The FDIC provides separate insurance coverage for funds depositors may have in different categories of legal ownership. The FDIC refers to these different categories as “ownership categories.” This means that a bank customer who has multiple accounts may qualify for more than $250,000 in insurance coverage if the customer’s funds are deposited in different ownership categories and the requirements for each ownership category are met.
http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/insured/basics.html
Buffett converting GS warrants to common stocks
He must be seing GS stocks soaring
re # 50- Grim right after the blow up at MF he was spotted at the Gym and according to someone I know they were getting the tar and feathers ready.
It’s not all inflation as there is wage deflation. Living expenses have gone up but wages have not increased which translates to a mild deflation and we don’t know if living expenses are up due to inflation or demand. What we have here is a form of gradual concealed AUSTERITY, implemented in a variety of ways. Savers get a haircut like in Cyprus and effective purchasing power diminishes while social programs/infrastructure deteriorates. Imagine if we were not able to profit from the European policies. Inflation or deflation is irrelevant at this point and we are all greek in denial.
Housing is cheap compare to europe–people with a salary can easily afford a house. New York is a different matter that’s why there was a minimal uptick on housing (except manhattan). I believe again that this uptick is not sustainable unless inventory decreases further. Inventory is back to 2001.
Does anyone know where i can find existing home inventory historical data for NJ??
re # 57 – That is why I have money all over the place. If you go back to the week in Sept 08 where I posted before the blow up I was busy moving everything around.
As I said before you should move your money at least once a year. This year I am dumping my main bank after I close on my house and they sell my mortgage to Fannie or Freddie. They will have made too much money on me and might get crazy again with liar loans.
6 worst home fixes for the money
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/6-worst-home-fixes-for-the-money-1.aspx
The back-up generator made #2.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/cohen-buys-picasso-from-wynn-for-155-million-post-says.html
The back-up generator is throwing money down the toliet. Sure it is great for personal use if you dont want to suffer through another black out.
For a buyer it is a huge red flag. Also areas that actually could use back-up generators you will notice no one has them. Not a single person near me would have one or want one. They are stupid.
What is more valuable is a outdoor outlet that plugs in a portable generator that connects to water heater and a few key outlets like fridge etc.
A back up generator requires maint, is expensive takes up space and is stupid. Only time I would need it is if we had another Sandy, well if I had a unit on the ground it would be under six feet of salt water and would be useless. And guess what renting a generator I can put in to FEMA. A generator outside of house is not covered by flood insurance or home owners insurance.
Sump Pumps, dehumidfiers, generators are all red flags.
I would say it is like selling a car with cans of starter fluid, fix a flat, jumper cables and cans of brake fluid in trunk. One just thinks the worst.
My house looks great. No generator, no obvious sump pump etc. Why would I point out FLOOD DAMAGE. In fact I am putting off my renovations not related to flood till 2014/2015 as any work I do now will reek of I got flooded!!!! I need to redo a second bathroom, and I need to paint main floor and fix huge leak in garage and porch, leak fixed by walls look like a war zone. Doing it now screams Sandy. By 2014.2015 I will make it all nice.
What do you have your money invested in now?
Juice Box says:
March 26, 2013 at 11:15 am
re # 57 – That is why I have money all over the place. If you go back to the week in Sept 08 where I posted before the blow up I was busy moving everything around.
As I said before you should move your money at least once a year. This year I am dumping my main bank after I close on my house and they sell my mortgage to Fannie or Freddie. They will have made too much money on me and might get crazy again with liar loans.
The great senior sell-off could cause the next housing crisis
Someday they’ll say no one could have seen it coming.
It has not materialized into an inventory increase yet. When is it supposed to start??
—
The great senior sell-off could cause the next housing crisis
Someday they’ll say no one could have seen it coming.
JJ – I wouldn’t worry about hiding subtle tells of a flood prone area such as sump pumps or backup generator. The debris piles look like they will be there a while. I think this is your hood.
http://longisland.news12.com/features/sandy/home-renovated-by-hgtv-s-spontaneous-construction-revealed-to-long-beach-family-1.4880476?firstfree=yes
re#66 – JJ – depends on which way the wind blows.
Whe seniors begin to sell, they will need housing to replace the one they are selling. They will not sell unless they have another home that they can buy. Even if one spouse passed away, the other will still need housing. Unless they all die at the same time.
I dont think this theory is right. When that time comes there will be enough in the population to fill the void.
Didn’t any of the seinors have kids or grandkids? Where are they living?
The idea is that seniors downsize to lower upkeep dwellings and/or move to lower tax areas. So the premise of this theory is correct–it should affect suburbs as NNJ and Westchester.
71. We aren’t planning on selling our N.J. home for a long time but we do plan to retire in a few years. The grand plan is to travel and/or rent an out of state townhome for a few months of the year. Our budget allows us to keep our N.J. home, which isn’t too small or too big. It’s “just right”. Family and friends and good food will keep us here for a long time. Years ago, our neighbors, most of whom still live on my street, were saying that when the kids were all grown up they would downsize and move south. But the reality is that so far, none of them have done so. We just cannot seem to leave!
You talking about the whole house permanently installed or the portable generators?
65.JJ says:
March 26, 2013 at 11:45 am
The back-up generator is throwing money down the toliet. Sure it is great for personal use if you dont want to suffer through another black out.
Not true. It is only how your house looks. My house looks great, much better than pre-sandy. My flood insurance is $390 a year and my policy states my home has never had a flood claim since records begin in 1977. I filed no permits for any repairs. This is a once in a one hundred year event. I think the key is to show no signs of damage,
I was driving around Long Beach this weekend, and the ICI money is coming in and I see the bull dozers taking down bungalows. Cumo is going to give like up to 100K to rebuild. All the junky houses are being torn down. One guy in paper bought ten. I drove by Atlantic Beach and saw beach clubs and boardwalk almost done, point lookout already is looking good. As long as we make it through this huricane season by summer of 2014 home prices will be above pre-sandy prices.
Even now I think come 4th of July the shore and Long Beach will look pretty good to untrained eye.
nwnj says:
March 26, 2013 at 12:14 pm
JJ – I wouldn’t worry about hiding subtle tells of a flood prone area such as sump pumps or backup generator. The debris piles look like they will be there a while. I think this is your hood.
http://longisland.news12.com/features/sandy/home-renovated-by-hgtv-s-spontaneous-construction-revealed-to-long-beach-family-1.4880476?firstfree=yes
#74, that seems to be a realistic and growing possibility. Perhaps some can’t afford to move, others maybe doesn’t make sense. Now that house is paid off, my “rent” i.e, property tax is $700 a month, and that is deductible. Obviously other costs but my MIL is renting a 1 bedroom apt in Ridgewood for $1,600 a month, so it seems my “deal” is better. Of course, trying to time the pension bomb in NJ is an issue!
They listed bathroom addition. I disagree with that. If you are going from one bathroom to two…..Good. Once you add the 3rd and fourth…..bad.
63.Libtard in Union says:
March 26, 2013 at 11:34 am
6 worst home fixes for the money
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/6-worst-home-fixes-for-the-money-1.aspx
The back-up generator made #2.
74 Just move already :) I know I have a friend same situation but did move to a condo nearby.
77. Another reason we don’t want to move is the gnawing possibility that we may get bored and want to work part-time. If we leave N.J. we leave all our contacts and networking gets tough. It’s too risky. I could work anywhere as my job is in healthcare, but my spouse would have it tougher. We don’t want to give up any options. Same here, mortgage paid off and even with property maintenance cost and property taxes we don’t save a bundle by selling.
Who was on the threads a couple of weekends ago lecturing me that I had my head up my a%%. Not that you are wrong, but here is some more information supporting my secondhand parroting……
Shale gas lures global manufacturers to US industrial revival
* Some U.S. companies bring back jobs
By Maria Sheahan and Georgina Prodhan
FRANKFURT/VIENNA, March 26 (Reuters) – When Wolfgang Eder and his team started looking around for a site for a new plant for Voestalpine, the Austrian steelmaker he heads, they had 17 sites in eight countries on their list.
This month, after more than a year of looking, they settled on the U.S. state of Texas, after a boom in the production of natural gas from shale extraction brought gas prices down to just a quarter of what companies paid in Europe.
“In the USA, re-industrialisation is being promoted very consistently, ambitiously and with great conviction,” Eder told Reuters. “Low energy prices gave us the final – and not insignificant – push.”
With cheap shale gas making the United States a magnet for industrial companies like Voestalpine, many economists are positing a return to industrialisation for the world’s biggest economy after more than a decade of consumption-led growth.
“America is currently seeing a renaissance of production,” said Felix Schuler, a partner at Boston Consulting Group (BCG) based in Germany who specialises in the industrial goods sector.
U.S. natural gas prices are $4 per million British thermal units – having touched a decade low of $2 last year – well below its 10-year average of about $5.70 and prices of around $14 in Britain and almost $17 in Asia.
Voestalpine will use natural gas at its new plant, its biggest investment to date at 550 million euros ($712 million), to turn iron ore into sponge iron, which will later be used to make crude steel.
Cheap natural gas not only cuts costs for companies that use it as a raw material or feedstock for other products such as chemicals, it also means lower power prices as utilities use more gas to generate electricity.
Industrial companies pay about $40 per megawatt-hour of electricity on the U.S. East Coast, where prices have dropped sharply since mid-2008. That compares with about 45 euros ($58) in Germany, 60 euros in Austria and more than 65 pounds ($98) in Britain, creating incentives for energy-hungry firms in the steel and chemicals sectors to invest in new plants and expand existing facilities in the United States.
“The idea that energy costs in North America would always be more expensive no longer holds true. The new reality is that natural gas has turned that equation on its head,” Peter Loescher, the chief of executive of German engineering conglomerate Siemens, said in Detroit last month.
SHALE REVOLUTION
The National Association of Manufacturers in the United States estimates the shale boom will add 1 million manufacturing jobs in the country by 2025 as long as natural gas price increases remain moderate and industry regulation is favourable.
“I’ve spoken to several manufacturers from Europe and Asia who are interested in the shale revolution,” said Chad Moutray, the association’s chief economist.
Austrian fireproof materials maker RHI is also mulling a new U.S. plant, while it cuts production capacity in Europe due to lower levels of growth.
Tough targets designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Europe can also act as a push from the old continent.
RHI’s chief executive told journalists this month that the idea the company could cut its energy use by 5 percent a year to meet EU targets was “in the realm of fairy tales”.
“We set ourselves these challenges, but at some point one must realise that European industry employs many people and helps economic growth. What is the alternative? Shall we turn Europe into a financial centre?” asked Franz Struzl.
U.S. manufacturing output was at its highest level since mid-2008 in February, fuelled by a pickup in demand for cars and homes as well as cheap energy. Manufacturers’ new orders – an indicator for future revenues – rose 3 percent in 2012.
U.S. companies including General Electric and Boeing are also starting to bring back home some of the jobs they had moved abroad to cut costs, helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. Apple said late last year it planned to move some production of Macintosh computers to the United States from China this year.
“Two years ago, it was uncertain whether the pick-up in the United States was just a catch-up effect. But by now there is significant confidence in the sector that this is not a flash in the pan,” said Ulrich Ackermann, head of German engineering association VDMA’s Foreign Trade department.
CHEAPER FEEDSTOCK
Lower energy and feedstock prices help narrow the production cost gap with countries such as China to make exports more competitive.
According to research and analysis firm IHS, a number of large chemicals companies have announced plans to spend a total of about $95 billion to build or expand facilities in North America for exports, lured by cheap feedstock.
They are mainly in the production of ethylene, a basic hydrocarbon used to make solvents, plastics and detergents.
South African petrochemicals group Sasol is considering spending up to $7 billion on an ethane cracker complex in the United States, Egypt’s Orascom Construction Industries is building a $1.4 billion fertiliser plant in Iowa, and Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics has expanded plans for a new ethylene plant in Texas.
Japanese oil refiner Idemitsu Kosan and trading house Mitsui & Co are looking into running a petrochemical plant in the United States, which would export 30 percent of its production to Asia and Europe.
Austria’s Voestalpine aims to send half the annual output of its new plant in Texas back to its mills in Austria and use the rest as a strategic reserve.
U.S. President Barack Obama last month laid out a plan in his State of the Union address to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, including a network of institutes that would teach new industrial skills.
In last year’s address, he praised Germany’s Siemens for job training efforts at its gas turbine plant in Charlotte, North Carolina, opened in 2011.
The investment by Siemens, which has a total U.S. workforce of about 60,000, is tapping booming demand for gas turbines as the U.S. power industry switches to natural gas from coal.
German speciality chemicals company Wacker Chemie has also cited government incentives such as infrastructure grants and tax credits as key reasons for its decision to invest $2 billion in a new polysilicon plant in Cleveland, Tennessee.
Voestalpine’s Eder said a secure energy supply, ease of logistics and the availability of trained workers were important in the company’s investment decision, but the fact that his company was “welcomed with open arms” played a major role.
“We miss comparable efforts for industrial activities in Europe,” Eder said.
78 At least one bathroom at each level. At least two total.
This house looks good but I wouldn’t buy it. If it’s in a flood zone, it’s stigmatized.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/09/18/ike.last.house.standing/art.gilchrist.house.irpt.jpg
JJ says:
March 26, 2013 at 1:09 pm
Not true. It is only how your house looks. My house looks great, much better than pre-sandy. My flood insurance is $390 a year and my policy states my home has never had a flood claim since records begin in 1977. I filed no permits for any repairs. This is a once in a one hundred year event. I think the key is to show no signs of damage,
Earthquakes turn water into gold
http://news.yahoo.com/earthquakes-turn-water-gold-180356174.html
Article in WSJ yesterday about Howard Beach. Had highest concentration of homes that received maximum FEMA pay out. Article stated it was all interior flooding. Tons of damage inside homes but from outside homes appeared normal. All the homes are being invisibly rebuilt as repairs are mainly inside. Meanwhile no real mention in papers about Howard Beach. All NJ Shore SI and Long Beach news. Folks will buy in areas and not even realize they are flood zones. Many parts of Howard Beach require no flood insurance.
nwnj says:
March 26, 2013 at 1:29 pm
This house looks good but I wouldn’t buy it. If it’s in a flood zone, it’s stigmatized.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/09/18/ike.last.house.standing/art.gilchrist.house.irpt.jpg
JJ says:
March 26, 2013 at 1:09 pm
Not true. It is only how your house looks. My house looks great, much better than pre-sandy. My flood insurance is $390 a year and my policy states my home has never had a flood claim since records begin in 1977. I filed no permits for any repairs. This is a once in a one hundred year event. I think the key is to show no signs of damage,
re #81 – Chi -because they have no gas in Europe? Other than perhaps Norway’s offshore fields there is little natural gas and it is expensive. If they expliot franking here so be it once the wells run down they will have to keep poking holes in the ground to find more. I heard there is a Natural Gas filed in Greenwich. Why not start there.
A couple of issues to comment:
My wife talked me out of getting a whole-house generator. Instead, we agreed to buy a large portable, 12.5/15kw unit on wheels. I am finishing the details – natural gas line is to be piped under the deck where the quick disconnect will exist (I am buying a NG conversion kit). The electrical quick disconnect box will also be underneath the deck. Out of sight and out of mind. That much amperage, 50@220vac, coming out of the generator is actually more than my next door neighbors whole-house unit that is 15 years old and still working fine. That powers his 5100 sqft house.
Total investment: about $3k. It pays to be handy and have your own threading kits, wiring knowledge, etc…
Now, that article about home projects w/no payback: I finished my basement, about 12 years ago. About 1700 sqft finished space. I did this all myself except sheetrock, suspended ceilings and carpet. My total cost was in the mid thirties. I figure it would have cost abut $80-90k if I contracted it out. But that’s not the point. The point is that the basement provided immense entertainment value and actual piece of mind. My kids growing up slept, ate and drank there. I don’t care about payback. I got mine in other ways.
1978 [77];
I just bought but have thought about my exit strategy. My youngest is 14 years from turning 18. Whether it’s starting college, joining the military, or whatever, I hope I have the resolve to do what my sellers did: list it in Mar, accept a market price offer with a closing in late June after the kid graduates HS. Seller’s wife didn’t even show to the closing, she was already enjoying their Boca condo.
One problem, if you believe in 7-year cycles, 14 years puts me in another trough. Then there’s always that Armageddon thing that might happen, too.
Juice because it is hard to get the y connector from an intellectuals mouth and a$$. ; )
JJ thinks that by him hiding the flood damage, he will actually reap great benefits. To wit: My wife, well, fiancee at the time and I looked at a house in Berkeley Heights 30 years ago. 5 br split for $114k. OK shape, typical tract build quality. Offer was accepted. We found out 2 days later it was in some kind of flood zone. Actually, it was some brook 500 ft away. My wife grew up in an area in Union County which flooded often. She didn’t care if the house was dry. She ran and ran far.
To Dan, grim, et al: Here are some photos of my deck:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8864751@N02/sets/72157633094078325/
New Home sales still slipping.
In the Northeast the monthly change was -13.3 percent and sales were down on an annual basis by 10.3 percent.
JJ [65];
I am putting off my renovations not related to flood till 2014/2015 as any work I do now will reek of I got flooded!!!!
Do you plan to encase a current newspaper in clear acrylic in the floor, like some sort of proof of life hostage photo?
Cannon has been busy . . .
http://www.wealthwire.com/news/economy/4469
Seniors have the option of not down sizing to get their equity into use.They can stay put and go for a reverse mortgage.They dont have to necessarily have to put their home for sale and find a home to live in.Exceptions will be the seniors looking to move.
I dont see a big glut of homes in the future for sale because seniors are retiring.
If you look at my home today you would not know it had a drop of water. Just saving it is better to have no flood claims and a house that looks normal than a house with flood claims and lots of flood mitigation things.
For instance Flood cars that did not have insurance sell for a prem over identical cars that had insurance. If an owner directly sells you a flooded car that did have insurance you can fix it up and sell it with clean title. A flood car sold at auction will always have that stinky salavage flood title. If one keeps clean title and restores either the house or car back to original the flood wont effect the price.
xolepa says:
March 26, 2013 at 2:42 pm
JJ thinks that by him hiding the flood damage, he will actually reap great benefits. To wit: My wife, well, fiancee at the time and I looked at a house in Berkeley Heights 30 years ago. 5 br split for $114k. OK shape, typical tract build quality. Offer was accepted. We found out 2 days later it was in some kind of flood zone. Actually, it was some brook 500 ft away. My wife grew up in an area in Union County which flooded often. She didn’t care if the house was dry. She ran and ran far.
Receipts. Fresh paint in 2015 looks better than fresh paint in 2013. Plus right now folks are jacking up prices. Too many insurance jobs. Plus home inspectors are now back on their feet looking for bribes. I finished my project before they were back on their feet. Come 2015 the contractors once again will be hard up for work and home inspectors will be done collecting their bribes.
Anon E. Moose says:
March 26, 2013 at 3:59 pm
JJ [65];
I am putting off my renovations not related to flood till 2014/2015 as any work I do now will reek of I got flooded!!!!
Do you plan to encase a current newspaper in clear acrylic in the floor, like some sort of proof of life hostage photo?
Chi -because they have no gas in Europe? Other than perhaps Norway’s offshore fields there is little natural gas and it is expensive. If they expliot franking here so be it once the wells run down they will have to keep poking holes in the ground to find more.
Fracking is currently a very hot topic in Poland, who appears to have extensive shale gas fields. Initial estimates (which may have been a bit too optimistic) put Poland’s shale reserves at about 1/3rd the Marcellus field (about 900x Poland’s annual usage of natural gas.) The hope is that Europe can get off of Russia’s gas teat, well, theoretically anyway.
JJ
Didn’t you say flood is above ground level.It was in the first level of your house.If your neighbor had water damage how can you say your house did not have it?
Wait 20 years, everyone will just forget.
Did you guys see some of the average prices in that list?
Home Office Renovation – $28,888 – Huh? Does this include 3 computers, servers, firewalls, 30″ Mac monitors, custom walnut cabinetry, 2 iPads, a backup generator? This is not an addition, this is “renovation”.
Backup Generator – $14,718?!?!? You’d need to be an idiot to pay this. A permanent generator costs $5k, additional wiring, plumbing, concrete pad, etc adds an additional $2k. Installation time? 2 Days. $7,000 profit to the contractor? Idiocy.
Sunroom – $75,224????? Who is paying these prices, this is insanity.
Upscale Master Suite – $232,062? I could renovate an entire 3000 square foot house for this much money. Does this price include a brand new F150 for the contractor?
Bathroom Addition – $40,000???
Two car garage addition – $90,053? F*Ck you, I’ll take a Porsche 911 instead and put a cover on it in the driveway.
Hahaha, okay buddy, whatever you say.
JJ says:
March 26, 2013 at 4:20 pm
For instance Flood cars that did not have insurance sell for a prem over identical cars that had insurance. If an owner directly sells you a flooded car that did have insurance you can fix it up and sell it with clean title. A flood car sold at auction will always have that stinky salavage flood title. If one keeps clean title and restores either the house or car back to original the flood wont effect the price.
Flood is not determined by whether or not you actually flooded, or took a claim, it’s based on the FEMA maps.
If the FEMA map changed and put you in flood, when you were not in flood before, damage is entirely irrelevant, you are going to take the hit in value.
Buyer’s mortgage company is going to require a flood search to be submitted as part of underwriting. The search will be done at least twice, once by your attorney, second by the mortgage company, and potentially a third time (the first time) by your real estate agent.
Crawl space, Den, Laundry Room, Porch, Garage filled up then it overflowed to living room, dining room kitchen. I replaced entire lower level floor to ceiling, it was the second level I saved.
All my neighbors ripped out sheetrock, floors kitchen on main floor. I really should have but I dont have flood insurance. Since I was home we were going like crazy trying to keep water off cabinets best we could. Water was fairly high in living room kitchen as every cabinet, tv stand, wall unit lower shelves were full of water. SBA guy said 60 years of dirt and paint and fact water was not up that long in main level might save me.
In the end. I brought in three super high powerfull dehumidifiers, a large fan. Took off all lower trim. Punched holes in sheetrock under trim with screw drivers sprayed like crazy with mold spray then attacked mold from behind walls. Removed lower garage wall on one side of living room, removed den wall behind other side of living room and the two other sides had windows and siding.
In the end 99% of floor unwarped over three months. I replaced trim, I got new oven, I fixed dishwasher and I cleaned best I could under kickplates and I replaced a blown outlet.
So my main level looks exactly like it did before. Go to my neighbors houses it looks like they got tons of water in main level.
Before I sell, I want to sand floors on main level and paint the walls. You can see from where I yanked all the lower trim and stuff if you look close. Also my front screen door is rusty.
I used over $200 dollars in chemicals, a bleach sprayer and $300 dollar in rental equipment and $400 dollar in supplies to clean it out without demoing.
Well worth it. What a pain in the butt. I has 40 people in my house on Saturday at a party and not one person could believe I had one drop of water in house. My sister and cousin who never saw house since flood kept saying no way you had more than a few inches of water. When they see the water lines I penciled five feet up in spots they are all amazed.
I am saying from a Flood Insurance perspective/Building Permit perspective I had zero water in my house.
My house is still listed as never being flooded. My house was never tagged as flooded. I filed no permits. Therefore I dont have a flood house. As long as it is fixed 100% it is good to go.
I did not do my porch area or garage yet. I need to plywood up the wall behind den as no instlation or nothing between living room and garage. My table saw was under six feet of water in my outdoor shed.
People hire realtors nowdays so when I sell what you see is what you get. Also my house is a great house. Only problem is now every hurricane you have to remove all furniture and stuff from lower level of house and drag it upstairs. And move all cars. That is only annoyance.
yome says:
March 26, 2013 at 4:29 pm
JJ
Didn’t you say flood is above ground level.It was in the first level of your house.If your neighbor had water damage how can you say your house did not have it?
104 – Was your house in a flood zone prior to Sandy? Do you have a mortgage? I assume if the answer to the first was yes, the answer to the second would be no, otherwise you’d have been required to have flood.
If you are not in a flood zone, have you looked at the updated FEMA maps to know if your property is being moved into flood?
Looks like as of 2009, the entire town of Long Beach is flood. Looks like new buyers, if they need a mortgage, will need to pay the flood insurance rates based on those maps.
yo [95];
Reverse mortgages are rip-offs. Fees are outrageous, credit lines are pathetic relative to value. Its like getting a title pawn on your car or a payday loan. People who can’t afford their house in retirement are much better off just selling.
But even if you are right, reverse mortgages just kick the can down the road. The baby boom was not a permanent shift in population trend, just a pig working its way through the snake. When the mortgagee leaves the house, it has to be sold to pay off the note. Who’s going to buy it then, and for how much? What about all the neglected maintenance in the meanwhile?
Reverse mortgages are the new affinity fraud helocs.
Alex Trebek or the guy that used to pitch Quaker Oatmeal show up at the church social and pitch Grandma over decaf Sanka and Crumb Cake. “Oh Alex, have another piece of Entennmans and tell me again about how I can now take the around the world cruise.”
Moose,
If the house in reverse mortgage is more than the amount paid to you plus interest by the bank,the person can sell the house and keep remaining equity after paying the bank.
http://homeguides.sfgate.com/can-sell-house-after-doing-reverse-mortgage-3220.html
My wifes relative took a reverse mortgage on her home in Florida.She did this before the housing market busted.She got paid more than the value of the home.Today, she needs expensive care and need to be in a nursing home.She got rid of all her cash and the bank owns her house,she qualifies for medicaid.She will die sucking tax payers dollar but that is how the system is set
I believe the number of young families needing homes will cover the void the seniors will leave upon the couples death
Deck looks great Jill.
I believe the number of young families needing homes will cover the void the seniors will leave upon the couples death
Perhaps we should consider the geographic distribution of retirees in comparison to the geographic distribution of potential homebuyers?
There seems to be a broadly shared assumption that the retiree population is evenly dispersed geographically, which isn’t exactly the case.
The worst possible case for home prices would be in areas that have a significantly higher percentage of retirees than potential homebuyers, as the population of homebuyers is less than sufficient to consume the supply of homes.
Top 10 states with a percent of resident population 65 and over (As of 2005)
1. Florida 16.83%
2. West Virginia 15.32%
3. Pennsylvania 15.23%
4. North Dakota 14.71%
5. Iowa 14.67%
6. Maine 14.58%
7. South Dakota 14.24%
8. Rhode Island 12.92%
9. Arkansas 13.83%
10. Montana 13.77%
…
24. New Jersey 12.95%
Certain specific counties would be at greatest risk from this trend:
1. Charlotte FL 34.7
2. McIntosh ND 34.2
3. Highlands FL 33.0
4. Citrus FL 32.2
5. Kalawao HI 32.0
6. Sarasota FL 31.5
7. Hernando FL 30.9
8. Llano TX 30.7
9. McPherson SD 29.6
10. Divide ND 29.5

Who knows what will become of retirement communities once the boomers are gone, it’s likely that those communities will take the brunt of the inventory-driven price declines.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7fHT-_K-LY
grim says:
March 26, 2013 at 4:28 pm
Chi -because they have no gas in Europe? Other than perhaps Norway’s offshore fields there is little natural gas and it is expensive. If they expliot franking here so be it once the wells run down they will have to keep poking holes in the ground to find more.
Fracking is currently a very hot topic in Poland, who appears to have extensive shale gas fields. Initial estimates (which may have been a bit too optimistic) put Poland’s shale reserves at about 1/3rd the Marcellus field (about 900x Poland’s annual usage of natural gas.) The hope is that Europe can get off of Russia’s gas teat, well, theoretically anyway.
RE 16
the us taxpayer needs to hire a team of assassins.
Documentation for loans still suck and only by fax? What freaking century are we in? I now yearn for the days where fogging a mirror got you a loan. You would think borrowing 1/2 mil would be easier.
EOM <—— Old school for the days when every bit counted.
So questions for the peanut gallery. Answer if you feel like sharing.
If appraisal comes in within 5% I am locked per our new contract.
Should I ask for closing costs?
I could pull the Grim reaper and have my shylock include a 2% clause from the realtors to close as Grim suggested. Anyone ever successful?
I can stomach the difference perhaps I should just drink more…
Juice,
Speaking of closing costs: I happen to be a member of this credit union so I get email offers frequently (unfortunately not everyone can qualify for membership).
I haven’t analyzed this offer for that long, but if I was in the market to buy I’d be tempted.
https://www.penfed.org/mortgage-rates-all/
I’m referring to the 2.5% ARM 5/5 offer in which they cover all closing costs, make your first payment (all PITI), free rate lock, no escrow required, and 50,000 credit card points if you have one of their cards.
I’m not sure how much of the purchase price you are financing … that could be a deal-breaker (assuming you want this, assuming you can join) cause they require higher LTV ratios compared to others.
grim (14)-
They damn well do control the market when they’re buying 40 billion a month in MBS.
“C’mon now, Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates and treasuries, they control the overnight/fed funds rates. Saying that they can directly control the treasury and mortgage markets is giving them way too much credit. They can influence it, sure, but they don’t control it.”
•Closing costs offer available for purchases or external refinances only¹
•We’ll cover your first payment (available for purchases or external refinances only)²
•Guaranteed closing date or $1,000 (available for purchases only)³
•Receive 10% of first mortgage loan amount in PenFed credit card rewards points (available for purchases or external refinances only)⁴
•For home purchases or external refinancing up to $4 million
•Offers not available on investment properties or refinances of existing PenFed mortgages
•See below for loan to value and combined loan to value limits for conforming, jumbo, super jumbo mortgages, and condos
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•See additional details below
¹5/5 Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) Closing Cost Promotion: Offer available for purchases or external refinances only. PenFed will pay your closing costs including but not limited to: appraisal fee, tax service fee, CLO access fee, title fees, transfer tax fees, credit report fee, flood cert fee, recording fee, survey if required and work verification fee. This does not include: escrow, interest, homeowner’s insurance or owner’s title insurance, or the cost for a structural engineering or similar report, should the appraiser request one, or points to buy a rate down or applied to a loan. Points are the responsibility of the borrower and not covered in promotions. Existing PenFed mortgage borrowers are not eligible for the closing cost credit. Promotion is not available for investment properties. Other restrictions also apply. You must use one of our preferred title companies to get the closing cost credits. For New York properties, borrowers are required to pay title insurance premiums and may use any title company to obtain the closing cost credit. Closing costs, first payment, and guaranteed closing date offers are only available for owner occupied primary residence and second homes*. Offers available for purchases or external refinances only. Offer applies only to applications received on or after February 21, 2013. For Limited Cash Out refinances, limitations on the amount of cash back at closing may require that all or a portion of the credits be applied toward principal reduction. Note the reimbursement of closing costs below.
Reimbursement of Closing Costs: If you pay this loan off and close the account earlier than the 36-month anniversary date of the loan closing, you will be obligated to pay PenFed a prorated amount of the closing cost credit received from PenFed. This amount will be added to any loan payoff amount requested prior to the 36 month anniversary date. The reimbursement amount will be prorated in equal amounts on a monthly basis. Closing cost credits to be reimbursed include all the closing costs credits, including credit for the first payment and, if applicable, the $1,000 credit provided if PenFed failed to meet the purchase closing date, even when resulting in principal reduction credits for limited cash out refinances.
²1st Payment Promotion: Offer available for purchase or external refinances only. PenFed will provide a credit to you at closing in the amount of your first payment, to include principal, interest, taxes and homeowners insurance as applicable. You will be responsible for making all payments, including your first payment, pursuant to the repayment terms in your mortgage and promissory note. PenFed will not make any actual payments on your behalf. For Limited Cash Out refinances, limitations on the amount of cash back at closing may require that all or a portion of the credits be applied toward principal reduction.
³Guaranteed Closing Date Promotion: Offer available for purchases only. If PenFed is responsible for delaying your settlement date due to a delay in underwriting caused by PenFed error, PenFed will pay you $1,000 at closing pursuant to the following terms and conditions: (i) settlement date must be set 30 days after our receipt of the ratified purchase contract; (ii) promotion is only applicable to Purchase transactions; (iii) PenFed is not responsible for delays caused by the borrower or by third parties, including but not limited to, title, appraisal, or seller issues.
⁴5/5 Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) PenFed Credit Card Reward Points Promotion: Borrower will receive PenFed credit card reward points equivalent to 10% of the 5/5 ARM mortgage loan amount. Maximum points reward of 100,000 points. Reward points will be applied to a qualifying PenFed rewards credit card within thirty (30) business days of the loan’s funding date, subject to terms and conditions. The mortgage must be for a primary residence or second home. Does not apply to refinances of existing PenFed loans or investment properties. Borrower must have an active qualifying PenFed rewards credit card (PenFed Premium Travel Rewards American Express or PenFed Platinum Rewards Visa) prior to submission of the mortgage loan application or within 90 days of the settlement date. Borrower’s mortgage and credit card must be active and not have been in default. All credit card reward points will be added to only one qualifying PenFed rewards credit card. This promotion is only available to the primary borrower and co-borrowers will not be eligible. PenFed credit card reward points are subject to PenFed credit card reward points terms and conditions. Offer applies only to applications received on or after February 21, 2013.
Conforming Mortgages: For loan amounts from $25,000 to $417,000. The maximum combined loan- to-value (CLTV) is 90%; 80% LTV and above are subject to private mortgage insurance (PMI). The maximum LTV and CLTV for condominiums is 80% in DC, MD & VA; 70% in all other states.
Jumbo Mortgages: For loan amounts above $417,000 to $750,000. The maximum loan-to-value (LTV) is 80% and the maximum combined loan-to-value (CLTV) is 90%. The maximum LTV and CLTV for condominiums is 80% in DC, MD & VA; 70% in all other states.
Super Jumbo Mortgages: For loan amounts above $750,000. The maximum loan-to-value (LTV) and combined loan-to-value (CLTV) is 80%. The maximum LTV and CLTV for condominiums is 70%.
5/5 ARMs – Offers available for purchases or external refinances only, except for the guaranteed purchase date offer which is only available on purchase applications. The initial rate can change every 5 years by no more than 2 percentage points up or down, never to exceed 5 percentage points above the initial rate. When the rate adjusts, your new rate will be the then current index plus margin, which is currently set to 2.00 for the new products, as long as it does not exceed the 2% adjustment cap.
All Mortgage Programs: The application of discount points will be determined by the loan-to- value (LTV) ratio combined with certain representative credit scores. Points also apply to certain cash-out refinance transactions, certain condominium transactions, and some transactions with subordinate financing.
All loans carry a 1% origination fee except the 5/5 Adjustable Rate Mortgage.
*** For purchase transaction, the rate cannot be locked until a purchase agreement has been ratified.
The applicant is responsible for the following fees and costs at the time of closing (except 5/5 ARM): Origination fee (waived for 5/5 ARM loan program), appraisal fee, tax service fee, CLO access fee, title fees, transfer tax fees, credit report fee, flood cert fee, recording fee, survey if required and work verification fee, escrow reserves and interest due until first payment, other cost may be included due to program specific circumstances. This is not intended to be an all-inclusive list.
Escrows will only be waived if LTV is 80% or less in CA, OR, DC, VT & NY; 75% in all other states.
Borrowers are required to have sufficient reserve assets available to cover 6 months full payments including principal, interest, homeowner’s insurance, property taxes and homeowner associated dues and/or mortgage insurance, if applicable. For non-primary residences, we require 12 months of reserve assets.
You are nuts if you refi into an arm.
Scrapple check yourself 40 billion is only the beginning of the circle jerk.
I’ll repeat 2.25% rates until it explodes Japan Style which is coming +- 5 years.
114
you need to look at the distribution of boomers not retirees>65. Also the states with high percentage of retirees will be replaced with retiring boomers not younger generations and therefore prices will go up there. It’s no secret that the american population is getting older although not like Japan. Moreover, younger generations will not have the income to sustain higher prices although the fed solution is to carry higher debt.
Thanks Joyce Credit Unions scoff at guys like me. My left side of the brain wants to nail them to the wall, but Grim latest (last few years) has softened my appeal and approach.
I owe Grim dues but I have not decided it it will be ducats or whatever potatoes people drink in Poland.
120 – grim, a distinction between “influence” and “control” is a bit difficult to discern, but have it your way, even though i consider the distinction intellectually dishonest.
ION, here’s Mr. Quinn’s latest analysis. not a rosy picture.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=48749
how’s this for some wealth gap analysis?
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/03/26/income-growth-for-bottom-90-in-america-since-1966-is-59-dollars/
bears (127)-
I like Quinn, but I think he’s holding back. :)
129 – I can only imagine what someone of your wit, intellect and will could pen :)
It would be epic.
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