From Reuters:
Location crucial for the U.S. housing recovery
By one measure, the U.S. housing market turned a significant corner early this year: Prices are on the rise everywhere.
For the first time since the bottom fell out of residential real estate beginning in the summer of 2006, all the 20 major cities tracked by the closely watched S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index rose on a year-over-year basis in January, data released on Tuesday showed.
That is a significant milestone for a property market recovery that has been characterized by inconsistent momentum and spotty regional performances. On average, U.S. homes lost more than a third of their value in the recession, according to Case Shiller data, but some areas lost more than half their value, while others barely registered double-digit declines.
After marking what turned out to be two false bottoms in early 2009 and 2011, the market turned the corner in early 2012, and a host of data, from increasing new and existing home sales volumes to a pickup in housing starts, suggest the recovery is strengthening.
“Definitely we’re seeing more evidence of a rebirth of the housing market,” index co-creater and Yale economics professor Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider. “The housing market is very different from the stock market. (Prices) have momentum and when they start going up, they generally keep going up for a year or even more.”
But the fact that it has taken nearly seven years for all 20 metropolitan areas to show improvement at once belies the fragmented nature of the comeback. For instance, Phoenix has outperformed whereas Chicago remains a laggard.
While it is a positive sign that the gains are widespread, “The housing recovery does remain a bit uneven,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.
“These appreciation rates we’re seeing are certainly not sustainable and I think are not good for the market in the long-term. We’re going to see a period of volatility in home price appreciation until we clear out the negative equity and until mortgage rates get back to more normal rates.”
For JJ, from LI.com:
LI Housing Market: Sale Prices on the Rise in Nassau and Suffolk
And here on Long Island, statistics clearly show a rise in the numbers of homes being sold, along with the sale prices of those homes. According to data compiled by the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island, Inc., the pending sales median price for residential single/multi-family homes in Suffolk County was $327,500 in February, up from $311,000 for the previous February; and pending sales counts were 760, up from 694 in Feb. 2012.
In Nassau County, the median price for residential homes was $399,500 in February, up from $387,000 last February; and pending sales counts were 717, up from 636 in Feb 2012.
Good Morning New Jersey
Good stuff from Jonathan Miller:
Three Cents Worth: A Dozen Manhattan Housing Market Stages
2002 Recovery: Post 9/11 Fed drops rate to floor, pulling economy out of recession. Bidding wars begin 5 weeks later. From bottom up.
2003 Hiccup: By late 2002, activity began to cool as uncertainty fell over the market as the Iraq War build-up began. Activity began to spike on day after beginning of war as uncertainty (good or bad) was removed and spring as inventory plunged.
2004 Boom: Housing prices were rising at more than 20 percent annualized as housing frenzy began.
2005 Fog-a-Mirror: Affordability fell as prices squeezed many out of the market. Lending standards dissolved to the point where credit was chasing bodies and you needed nothing to get a mortgage.
2006 Bubble: Housing bubble formed as prices continued to rise but sales slowed and inventory spiked. Concern over future rise in mortgage rates clouded the market.
2007 Boom II: The development boom kicked in and overshadowed the re-sale market. National housing market prices were already falling and the credit crunch began in the summer.
2008 Zombie: Greater fool theory firmly in place as sales continued to fall while prices and inventory rose. Lehman collapse in September enunciated the credit crunch we live with today.
2009 Bust: Housing prices fell 30 percent in one year and initial contract activity was 50 percent to 75 percent below historic norms as interest rates plunged. Stock market rise gave housing participants more confidence to jump back in.
2010 Arm & Leg: Credit conditions remained irrationally tight, kept inventory from entering the market as many would-be sellers had low or negative equity and couldn’t buy so they couldn’t list. Shadow inventory remained bloated.
2011 Safety: Moving sideways—not much changed other than inventory declining which helped firm up the market. Shadow inventory began to be absorbed.
2012 Pre-covery: Lower supply gave rise to an era of more optimistic housing stats both locally and nationally.
2013 Pre-Insanity?: Chronically low supply causing national and regional market to see rising prices despite tight credit, flat income, and high unemployment. I like to say that when you choke off housing supply and you release pent-up demand, “crazy things happen.”
Congrats to Morris, from the Star Ledger:
Hearing on Morris County budget Wednesday, no tax increase proposed
Morris residents will have their chance Wednesday to speak about the county’s proposed budget — the first without a tax increase in 15 years.
Morning Mike.
“Pant-up demand”, could not resist!
Hi all.
From the Star Ledger:
New Jersey formally adopts federal advisory flood elevation maps for rebuilding after Sandy
New Jersey formally adopted controversial flood elevation standards this week, even though state and federal officials admit the regulations will likely change when final maps are released later this year.
…
“We know that rebuilding to the former standards is not an option because the maps and elevation requirements will change,” said Michael Drewniak, a spokesman for Gov. Chris Christie. “So, even as we attempt to expedite the refinement of FEMA maps we believe are too aggressive, we had to ensure there were standards in place for people who are rebuilding now to build stronger and safer. ”
…
Mary Margaret Walker, a FEMA spokeswoman, said “it is anticipated that there will be changes in the maps.” While homes in the “V” zone could move back to the “A” zone, she said the opposite will not happen.
Though that leaves certain homeowners in limbo, Walker said the state’s adoption of the maps benefits “households that clearly want to go ahead and move ahead with rebuilding.”
…
“We want people to be able to rebuild with a high level of certainty,” said Larry Hajna, a DEP spokesman. By adopting the advisory maps as the standard for rebuilding, he said, “we’re providing residents with clear direction for beginning this work. If they want to wait for the FEMA process to be completed, or to move further along, that’s certainly their prerogative.”
Flood zones are a b*tch.
FEMA Head: Federal Flood Insurance to Cost More
The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency says people who buy federal flood insurance need to plan for big rate hikes. FEMA director Craig Fugate says some people now paying hundreds of dollars a year could wind up paying thousands because Congress says the program must at least pay for itself.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/fema-head-federal-flood-insurance-cost-18818668
It looks I just might time this market right after….it’s a town for losers–i’m pullin outta here to wiiiin!
Clot – Regarding Fed MBS purchases having a significant impact on mortgage rates:
http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q2a1.pdf
Ref 122 from yesterday. Thinking about an ARM with enough cash reserve to buy it out if things go bad. Bad idea?
Forget Facebook; investors like real estate.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-facebook-investors-like-real-estate-2013-03-26
Yesterday someone mentioned not everyone can join the Penfed Credit Union. That’s not true. We joined free since my father-in-law is retired Navy, however all it takes is a one time donation of $15 or $20 to one of two charities. And you have the option to do that right on the membership form (it says you’re buying a 1 year membership for that 15-20 bucks, but everything I’ve read seems to indicate that you never have to pay it again–maybe call Penfed to verify).
They have great mortgage rates, though they seem to charge a 1% origination fee on top of any points, at least on the fixed rates, so that bumps the APR closer or above what you can get from a good mortgage broker. I’ve never used them for a mortgage.
However, I would highly, highly recommend their Platinum Cash Rewards Visa. 5% cash back off any and every gas brand. You only get 1/4% back on all other purchases (it used to be 1%) but that’s why you have other cards. If you spend $300 a month in gas, you will make the $15 donation back in one month’s gas purchases.
Most folks raising houses are plain stupid unless it is destroyed. I was told by my FEMA guy Hurricane season is usually just August through November. Better solution is just pay off mortgage and do the insurance only during hurricane months.
My flood is $390 a year. If they moved me to full blown zone AE I was told it would be 3k a year. If they did that I would have insurance only during August through November each year. Five months a year. Raising house the payback is like 100 years.
How she bought a house at 21, and why she regrets it
http://homes.yahoo.com/blogs/spaces/she-bought-house-21-why-she-regrets-081343992.html
Grim 4 that is wonderful but we got our town expedintures in the mail the otehr day and nearly 70% went into the school system. I wonder how much of that was used to indoctrinate actual students and not feather nests. high school just put in 2 astroturf fields and an army grade obstacle course (WTF!). Even with kids and the amount of taxes we send in to the state for education that seems ridiculous, but it is for the children after all.
CNBC: You have to sit through a 30 second commercial, then the entire video is misleadingly captioned reflecting the content of the first 60 seconds. The initial take appears that the analyst is dressed for a c-cltail party and is a consultant for the NAR. All of that said, she said a great deal of telling stuff and is credible. If you are willl to wade through all the nonsense, you have 4 minutes of truth.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000156988
first of all, buyers looking for bargains. they’re worried about interest rates going up, and they want to get into the market while prices are still cheap. sellers don’t want to release homes into the market because they think they can still get a higher price, which is decreasing inventory and increasing prices. and we have investors buying like crazy, eating up inventory.
If she stayed living at home and dollar cost averaged into stocks between 2005 and 2013 she would be loaded, if she even just rolled five year cds she be better off and funniest, if she just went crazy and spent every nickle she made partying from 21 to today she would be better off as she would not have negative equity.
Think I learned is my friend same age as me got married young, bought a house in Levitown at peak in late 1988. Meanwhile I partied like a drunken sailor spending every nickle I every made and bought a RTC place for peanuts in late 1991 and a used Mercedes in 1992 during recession. Come 1993 he goes this is BS, I got married young, two incomes, bought a house right away. I am bringing lunch to work, scrapping by as I got a big mortgage and I am underwater on house driving my car from college, meanwhile you have a place, a mercedes, hampton house, go skiing, I should be rich and you should be poor. I told him if you think that is bad, dont forget I am also better looking, have a bigger schlong and shag tons of girls.
I always say you make 100% of you money on real estate the day you buy it.
WickedOrange says:
March 27, 2013 at 8:51 am
How she bought a house at 21, and why she regrets it
http://homes.yahoo.com/blogs/spaces/she-bought-house-21-why-she-regrets-081343992.html
Peanut gallery.
Should I stipulate the seller pays all closing costs?
Juice we tried but had no luck but she had multiplpe bids on the house thanks to the expiring 8000 tax credit. So we walked back on it. Can’t hurt to try determine how desperate they are, anything you can claw back is a good thing.
Re: Retired Boomers will make home prices come down
If retired boomers are forced to stay put and will not want to sell their paid off or high equity homes at a price not to their liking,they can not buy homes in the high retired concentrated area.No?
Remember,they dont have to sell,they have other options
maybe buyer says:
March 26, 2013 at 10:43 pm
114
you need to look at the distribution of boomers not retirees>65. Also the states with high percentage of retirees will be replaced with retiring boomers not younger generations and therefore prices will go up there. It’s no secret that the american population is getting older although not like Japan. Moreover, younger generations will not have the income to sustain higher prices although the fed solution is to carry higher debt.
My lawyer told me on Long Island sellers never paying closing Maybe in NJ they do. Doesnt it make more sense to just knock money off house.
My two biggest closing costs My lawyer said are title insurance and his fee. What else is there? I am not at that phase yet and I cant remember what I paid in Feb 2000 at my last closing.
Juice Box says:
March 27, 2013 at 9:37 am
Peanut gallery.
Should I stipulate the seller pays all closing costs?
18 – Juice – I’d suggest your appraisal contingency be inserted by your attorney once you are in attorney review (contract gets cancelled, he drafts a rider). No sense playing that card so early in the negotiation, especially since your attorney intends to do exactly the same thing.
re # 16 – Many will be carried out feet first. I scouted the neighborhood we are buying in fortunately it is mostly young families so there will be few decrepit run down homes to drag down the neighborhood.
The street my mother lives on in Bergen County is loaded with seniors. The only recent sales were during the bubble and those people way overpaid and will never move or even improve their home. Most of the seniors citizens I have talked to that live there are not giving away their home bla, bla bla. Even though it is officially in POS condition in haughty Bergen County.
Fark Bergen County..
Should I stipulate the seller pays all closing costs?
Good luck, it’ll be stricken on the first counter. Generally this works if the buyer is willing to overpay, and the seller knows it, and that seller funded closing is the only way the buyer is able to close.
Essentially, you are not negotiating a discount, you are adding the closing costs to the sale price in exchange for the seller providing that cash back at closing. Why? Basically you are rolling the closing costs into the loan, especially helpful if you are trying to buy a house with as little cash out of pocket as possible.
Downside to this is you financing your closing costs over 30 years, not exactly a great idea.
JJ
I did not use a lawyer when I close on my 2nd home in a new development in SJ.My biggest expense was title insurance and recording fees.I did not carry escrow.They dont require you buy insurance when you pay cash ,though I did.My property tax was pro rated months later
23. We aren’t that fixated on what our home is worth right now. And, we bought so many years ago that i wouldn’t put up a stink if we didn’t get what we could have at the peak of the market. It’s more a matter of practicality, where are we going to move TO? It’s simply easier to stay put, especially since our house is paid for and we can easily deal with the taxes. I am not saying we like to pay the taxes, but it’s not a budget buster either. The devil we know (our present house and street) is better than the devil we don’t know.
After marking what turned out to be two false bottoms in early 2009 and 2011, the market turned the corner in early 2012, and a host of data, from increasing new and existing home sales volumes to a pickup in housing starts, suggest the recovery is strengthening.
Ok great! Two questions: 1) Why are interest rates still at distorted lows and 2) When do we see inventory?
Grim [24];
Downside to this is you financing your closing costs over 30 years, not exactly a great idea.
Depends on what the inflation outlook is. If the note is in the low-mid 3’s, after-tax cost of borrowing in the mid 2’s — that’s free money from my point of view. My student loans are in the mid 2’s — also deductible — and I won’t be paying that off any time soon. Besides, student loans are forgiven on death.
“Remember, you’re only president… for life.“
NJ Population by age, 2011, split in 19 year groups:
10-29 years 25.83%
30-49 years 27.97% (Roughly the Gen X Segment)
50-69 years 24.20% (Roughly the Boomer Segment)
70+ years 9.57% (Retirees)
What I’m saying is that from a current population standpoint, the boomers aren’t representing the largest subgroup in NJ.
re #18 – Grim – thanks for the sanity check. From all of the nonsense I have read about appraisals and closing costs I am sure I could squeeze another 2% out of the seller, they won’t be insulted I gave them what they wanted so far.
Eddie the home-builders aren’t building in the northeast YOY it’s down 10%. Most of what they are adding is Condos or Million + homes, which you aren’t in the market for.
Inventory will be constrained forever. The feet first crowd, the POS inventory that doesn’t move, shadow foreclosure inventory and those that are underwater forever who cannot sell and the Big $$ Funds now buying up anything not nailed down and rehabbing it for rentals will keep inventory that way.
I tossed in my towel for now and I am buying in a solid desirable neighborhood. Bernake will make me rich once inflation kicks in. My useless dollars sitting in a 0% account will be hard at work finally.
Juice [31];
I tossed in my towel for now and I am buying in a solid desirable neighborhood. Bernake will make me rich once inflation kicks in. My useless dollars sitting in a 0% account will be hard at work finally.
+1
Did you use that online title company? I heard I could save a few bucks and buy the title insurance direct. It is called entitledirect
http://www.entitledirect.com/
yome says:
March 27, 2013 at 10:00 am
JJ
I did not use a lawyer when I close on my 2nd home in a new development in SJ.My biggest expense was title insurance and recording fees.I did not carry escrow.They dont require you buy insurance when you pay cash ,though I did.My property tax was pro rated months later
745160QA2
PUERTO RICO COMWLTH AQUEDUCT & SWR AUTH 06.00000% 07/01/2038REV REV BDS SERIES A
CHifi you should jump in. Downgrade has muni investment grade bonds selling, bonds are going at par with a 6% tax free coupon.
34 Somebody just paid 104 for them about ten minutes ago 03/27/2013 : 12:04 PM 03/28/2013 104 5.121 15,000 Customer bought
No…..only TruPS and Floaters…..
JJ says: March 27, 2013 at 11:41 am
745160QA2
PUERTO RICO COMWLTH AQUEDUCT & SWR AUTH 06.00000% 07/01/2038REV REV BDS SERIES A
CHifi you should jump in. Downgrade has muni investment grade bonds selling, bonds are going at par with a 6% tax free coupon.
Otto,
Yes. The Penfed cc is commonly held among the frugal set. I’m grandfathered in on the Amex Blue cash 5% back at Gas Stations/Grocery Stores/Pharmacies, so I never bothered to get it.
Are you a Priest or a Christmas Tree?
Unless your balls are only for decoration you need to man up and start doing some real trading.
chicagofinance says:
March 27, 2013 at 12:21 pm
No…..only TruPS and Floaters…..
JJ says: March 27, 2013 at 11:41 am
745160QA2
PUERTO RICO COMWLTH AQUEDUCT & SWR AUTH 06.00000% 07/01/2038REV REV BDS SERIES A
CHifi you should jump in. Downgrade has muni investment grade bonds selling, bonds are going at par with a 6% tax free coupon.
Home sales down -2.5 % month to month in the Northeast? How can this be? This is on the CNBC site. Yun is beside himself trying to explain it. NJ Re kool aid blog.
Pending home sales in the Northeast are up 6.8% year over year (SA), and 3.0% year over year (NSA), and higher locally.
Looking at pending sales on a month to month basis? Way too volatile, even looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers. The chart tracks like an EKG. Besides, I don’t care for the NAR’s seasonal adjustment methodology.
I rarely, if ever, discuss statistics in terms of month over month changes, it’s just way too noisy.
If I was playing the koolaid card, I’d focus on the 21.4% month over month increase in pending contracts in the Northeast (NSA).
grim 29
These numbers would make more sense if you could give us the national percentages as well although I would not expect a significant deviation. Do you know the distribution of ownership by age? More relevant I think.
Age of Home Buyers in NJ/US (2011)
New Jersey U.S.
18 to 24 years 1% 4%
25 to 34 years 25 27
35 to 44 years 26 19 <- Probably the most interesting difference 45 to 54 years 15 19 55 to 64 years 17 19 65 to 74 years 13 10 75 years or older 3 3 Median age (years) 44 45
Why not lock in historic low interest rates with a 30-year fixed? Then reduce the principal by sending in extra money each month. I’d never choose an ARM.
“Thinking about an ARM with enough cash reserve to buy it out if things go bad. Bad idea?”
Could not find the ownership percentages for US but here is the householders (a good approximation). Can we find the distribution of householders in NJ by age??
Census 2010
15 to 24 years old 5
25 to 29 years old 8
30 to 34 years old 8
35 to 44 years old 18
45 to 54 years old 21
55 to 64 years old 17
65 to 74 years old 11
75 years + 10
HouseWhineWine 26
that’s great as it shows there is life in Nj after retirement. May I ask how much your taxes are? and/or the county you are in?
43
I will even go with a 15 year or less fixed, if I have cash on the sideline. At least I know bulk of my monthly payments is going to principal not interest.
From ACS 2011:
Left column is US Aggregate – Right is NJ
Under 5 years – 6.4% – 6.1%
5 to 9 years – 6.5% – 6.3%
10 to 14 years – 6.7% – 6.6%
15 to 19 years – 7.0% – 6.7%
20 to 24 years – 7.1% – 6.2%
25 to 29 years – 6.8% – 6.3%
30 to 34 years – 6.6% – 6.4%
35 to 39 years – 6.3% – 6.4%
40 to 44 years – 6.8% – 7.4%
45 to 49 years – 7.1% – 7.8%
50 to 54 years – 7.2% – 7.7%
55 to 59 years – 6.5% – 6.6%
60 to 64 years – 5.7% – 5.7%
65 to 69 years – 4.1% – 4.1%
70 to 74 years – 3.1% – 3.0%
75 to 79 years – 2.4% – 2.4%
80 to 84 years – 1.9% – 2.1%
85 years and over – 1.8% – 2.1%
I would say March 2009 was a slam dunk to borrow as much as possible, March 2013 not as much
It was a slam dunk borrowing as much as possible in March 2009 so your cash could stay in the market and catch a 120% run up in stocks.
March 2013 due to RE sell off and massive bond and stock rally most folks asset allocation is out of wack.
Time travel to March 2006 RE was most likely largest asset for folks.
Now in March 2013 after 7 year sell off in RE and a seven year bull market in bonds and a huge four year bull market in stocks RE is no longer a big asset allocation.
Lots of folks like in late 1999 and early 2000 are buying cash or putting down large payments as it is similar to late 1999 and early 2000 when stocks were last fully valued while RE was cheap.
I recall my friend in Feb 2000 hitting sell button at etrade and buying a house for 650K cash. Now in 2013 folks like me once again just want to hit sell button and buy RE.
Locking in a 30 year yield sounds great but does nothing for my asset allocation. Plus folks have cash rolling in they want to park it.
Reason buyers are out is folks who need a home made a boatload in stocks and bonds last few years. Folks who bought at peak are still underwater and missed out on bull market.
Statler Waldorf says:
March 27, 2013 at 1:21 pm
Why not lock in historic low interest rates with a 30-year fixed? Then reduce the principal by sending in extra money each month. I’d never choose an ARM.
“Thinking about an ARM with enough cash reserve to buy it out if things go bad. Bad idea?”
If you pre-pay a 30-year fixed at the 15-year payment level, the difference in interest paid is small. And, if you lose your job, or have a medical emergency, you’ll have more breathing room with a 30-year fixed mortgage.
That would be same logic as paying cash. Or just putting a bigger down payment so 15 year is same as 30 year.
Statler Waldorf says:
March 27, 2013 at 1:40 pm
If you pre-pay a 30-year fixed at the 15-year payment level, the difference in interest paid is small. And, if you lose your job, or have a medical emergency, you’ll have more breathing room with a 30-year fixed mortgage.
And the estimated 85% of the population who, today, owns 2% of the financial paper assets in the country. Yup, another spot on comment.
48.JJ says:
March 27, 2013 at 1:39 pm
Now in March 2013 after 7 year sell off in RE and a seven year bull market in bonds and a huge four year bull market in stocks RE is no longer a big asset allocation.
grim 47
ok here is a glimpse of boomer problem at a national scale (see the decrease of ownership in younger ages) –can’t find the NJ mumbers
US Homeownership by Age Group (Decennial Census)
1980 1990 2000 2010
15 to 24 years 22.1% 17.1% 17.9% 16.1%
25 to 34 years 51.6% 45.3% 45.6% 42.0%
35 to 44 years 71.2% 66.2% 66.2% 62.3%
45 to 54 years 77.0% 75.3% 74.9% 71.5%
55 to 64 years 77.6% 79.7% 79.8% 77.3%
65 years and over 70.1% 75.2% 78.1% 77.5%
Total 64.4% 64.2% 66.2% 65.1%
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/lawler-census-2010-homeownership-rates.html#Z1dwuCS7f5UJr7M4.99
Pending home sales in the Northeast are up 6.8% year over year (SA), and 3.0% year over year (NSA), and higher locally.
With 30 yr. rates in the 3.x range and prices down 27% from peak, one would think it would be a lot higher. So, if a 1000 houses sold this time last year, we sold 1068 this year. Meh. Gee, it takes a lot of koolaid and media rah-rah just to move the meter. I guess if you throw enough lines in the water, you’re bound to hook something.
You mean like this? I can’t tell you what is going on in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, etc…
(Source GSMLS, except Bergen- NJMLS) – Updated with 2011 Data
February Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
——————————-
Bergen County
February 2011 – 490
February 2012 – 564
February 2013 – 682 (Up 20.9% YOY, Up 39.2% Two Year)
Essex County
February 2011 – 221
February 2012 – 313
February 2013 – 364 (Up 16.3% YOY, Up 64.7% Two Year)
Hunterdon County
February 2011 – 90
February 2012 – 92
February 2013 – 126 (Up 40.0% YOY, Up 40.0% Two Year)
Morris County
February 2011 – 264
February 2012 – 320
February 2013 – 403 (Up 25.9% YOY, Up 52.7% Two Year)
Passaic County
February 2011 – 138
February 2012 – 153
February 2013 – 215 (Up 40.5% YOY, Up 55.8% Two Year)
Somerset County
February 2011 – 176
February 2012 – 201
February 2013 – 270 (Up 34.3% YOY, Up 53.4% Two Year)
Sussex County
February 2011 – 68
February 2012 – 106
February 2013 – 125 (Up 18.0% YOY, Up 83.8% Two Year)
Union County
February 2011 – 204
February 2012 – 273
February 2013 – 292 (Up 7.0% YOY, Up 43.1% Two Year)
Warren County
February 2011 – 59
February 2012 – 69
February 2013 – 92 (Up 33.3% YOY, Up 55.9% Two Year)
“At least I know bulk of my monthly payments is going to principal not interest.”
Do the math. How much would your money be making in the market than in the banks coffers? I could have bought our second house in cash. But then I would have missed the 18% gain in the DOW. Who cares if you are paying 3 or 4% in interest when you are obtaining 8 or 9% interest in an ETF indexed to the S&P 500. I’m not an indexer and have managed closer to 13% a year for the past two years. Sure there’s some risk. But there’s risk in owning a home as well. Look at JJ’s home. For a few moments there, it looked like a lifeguard perch.
It is spot on as the amount of home buyers and REITs and Pension funds paying cash is huge.
It is the need for yield and foreigners looking for safe places to park cash that drives a lot of sales now.
Bigger issue is folks have new cash to invest, bonds being called, bonds maturing and dividends that pile up month after month. Buy a home is a good place to park cash if you can rent it out and think homes are appreciating.
My place if I pay cash, I can clear enough to break even each year on a winter rental. Allowing me a summer place at the beach every summer forever. Hopefully, the property appreciates and I have something to leave the kids in my will one day. In other words never pay cap gains tax as I am never selling.
Same concept as buying a condo in NYC> Folks are either parking cash or large investors are doing buy to rent.
Broke dick couples showing up at door steps with 10% down whining if they can get a mortgage, if parents help with downpayment and owner pays closing costs are not home buyers. Home buyers are folks with checkbooks.
joyce says:
March 27, 2013 at 1:53 pm
And the estimated 85% of the population who, today, owns 2% of the financial paper assets in the country. Yup, another spot on comment.
48.JJ says:
March 27, 2013 at 1:39 pm
Now in March 2013 after 7 year sell off in RE and a seven year bull market in bonds and a huge four year bull market in stocks RE is no longer a big asset allocation.
ok here is a glimpse of boomer problem at a national scale (see the decrease of ownership in younger ages) –can’t find the NJ numbers
Of course homeownership levels will decrease as age decreases, it’s not that they won’t own homes, it’s that they don’t own homes today. The extreme case of that is while the ownership rate of 15-24 year olds is only 16%, that says more about homeownership of that age bracket, and not the long term homeownership for that cohort (as they age).
If you look up above and see that the median age for homebuyers in 2011 was approximately 45 years old, the homeownership rates you cite make start to make more sense.
13% a year!!!!! From March 2008 till today I have been averaging 18.13% a year. In the 1990s I once racked up 40% a year for a six year run.
were in a bank cd or money market or something that all you earned is 13%
BTW I am joking part of reason I am paying mainly cash is I am so far ahead I like to take chips off the table. Last time I made a big downpayment on a house was Feb 2000 and that worked out well.
I started that account above as a trade up house account January 2008 and due to balls and luck I average over 18% a year for five years which is only reason I have so much to put down. Money grows fairly quick at 18% compounded yield. So much so that purchase price of house is only 18 months of compounding and capital gains. I love the value of compound interest and reinvested dividends, housing can never grow as quick as month you shovel money in. Think about this if one on January 2008 if someone bought a 30 year JJ treasury and reinvested the interest every January and July in a low cost S&P fund vs same amount in a house the difference would be astronomical.
YTD † 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year
+8.45% +39.37% +10.01% +18.13%
Libtard in the City says:
March 27, 2013 at 2:05 pm
“At least I know bulk of my monthly payments is going to principal not interest.”
Do the math. How much would your money be making in the market than in the banks coffers? I could have bought our second house in cash. But then I would have missed the 18% gain in the DOW. Who cares if you are paying 3 or 4% in interest when you are obtaining 8 or 9% interest in an ETF indexed to the S&P 500. I’m not an indexer and have managed closer to 13% a year for the past two years. Sure there’s some risk. But there’s risk in owning a home as well. Look at JJ’s home. For a few moments there, it looked like a lifeguard perch.
So, the number of contracts are growing astronomically yet the inventory is dwindling(As he stares at the wall cross-eyed). Once again, the back room deal takes place or the transfer of deed takes place or somebody’s dog house got sold or whatever constitutes a sale these days. A sale is sale but I’ll be d.arned if plebs like me are privy to the source.
That would assume one has “a bigger down payment,” which most people do not. Oh how people forget we’re just a few years away from 80/20 loans (100% financing), interest only loans, and Russian roulette ARMs.
A down payment greater than 20% also ties up your money in a house, which if the house loses 50% of it’s value, makes strategic default impossible for most. Paying cash in full also shares this problem.
We’re at historic low interest rates, take the 30-year fixed gift and enjoy a low-risk life.
“That would be same logic as paying cash. Or just putting a bigger down payment so 15 year is same as 30 year.”
JJ,
People would laugh at you less often if you stopped referring to everyone being a part of your fantasy land in your rantings.
97 Bergen County SFH went into ARIP since Monday of this week:
ALNDL 975000 COL 202 HILLSIDE AVE
BGFD 169000 RANCH 81 LEVITT AVE
BGFD 199000 COL 42 S DEMAREST AVE
BGFD 249000 COL 25 HARING ST
BGFD 299000 S/L 165 NEW BRIDGE RD
BGFD 365000 S/L 214 WOODS AVE
BGTA 227000 COL 63 CHESTNUT AVE
BGTA 345000 COL 221 SUMMIT AVE
CLFPK 369000 C/C 61 KNOX AVE
CLOS 369000 B/L 31 MAYCOCK CT
CRSKL 389000 COL 194 9TH ST
CRSKL 399900 C/C 72 GRANT AVE
CRSKL 425000 C/C 6 S CREST DR
DMRST 559900 RANCH 15 RUTH LN
DMRST 1049000 CONTP 5 ERIC PL
DMNT 225000 COL 32 CRESSKILL AVE
DMNT 235000 C/C 64 HICKORY ST
DMNT 239000 COL 54 HILLCREST DR
DMNT 310000 S/L 80 WHITE BEECHES DR
DMNT 329000 B/L 100 BERKLEY PL
DMNT 350000 B/L 8 COLE CT
DMNT 359000 COL 196 DUMONT AVE
ELMPK 299900 COL 34 ELMWOOD TER
ELMPK 325000 B/L 42 LINWOOD AVE
ELMPK 379000 COL 154 BIRCHWOOD DR
EMRSN 454000 S/L 305 SPRUCE AVE
ENGCL 950000 S/L 654 SUMMIT ST
FRLWN 290000 C/C 11-06 UNDERWOOD PL
FRLWN 357000 COL 7-20 CAMPBELL RD
FRLWN 389000 COL 3 BEDFORD PL
FRLWN 439900 COL 19 MARGARET CT
FRLWN 539900 S/L 32-09 HILLSIDE TER
FRVW 299000 C/C 374 ROOSEVELT ST
FRKLK 587500 B/L 224 FOREST ST
FRKLK 888000 COL 260 OLDWOODS RD
FRKLK 950000 COL 795 SUNSET TER
FRKLK 1199900 COL 742 SUMMIT AVE
FRKLK 1429000 COL 767 BUTTERNUT DR
GRFLD 189900 C/C 21 PERSHING ST
GLNRK 299900 COL 28 BERGEN ST
GLNRK 625000 COL 72 VAN ALLEN RD
HWRTH 519000 COL 222 VALLEY CT
HILDL 420000 C/C 567 HILLSDALE AVE
HILDL 448900 RANCH 21 OVERBROOK PL
LODI 324900 C/C 64 SHERMAN AVE
MAHWH 519000 COL 7 MALCOLM PL
MAHWH 679000 COL 45 FRANKLIN ST
MAHWH 750000 COL 5 OLD OAK DR
MAHWH 799000 COL 5 BOLAND CT
MIDPK 530000 RANCH 96 PARK AVE
MNTVL 539900 S/L 23 HILLSIDE TER
MNTVL 625000 COL 354 W GRAND AVE
MNACH 519000 COL 24 ALBERT ST
NWMIL 149900 COL 173 NEW BRIDGE RD
NWMIL 259900 COL 81 SUMMIT AVE
NWMIL 399000 S/L 776 BEECH PL
NARL 214900 COL 38 CHESTNUT ST
OKLND 297000 B/L 79 TRUMAN BLVD
OKLND 307500 RANCH 80 LAKESHORE DR
OKLND 484800 RANCH 128 IROQUOIS AVE
ORADL 479000 S/L 95 WANAMAKER AVE
PRMS 489000 C/C 225 EHRET ST
PRMS 539900 B/L 385 WAGNER CT
PKRDG 440000 COL 144 RIDGE AVE
RMSY 385000 COL 27 SHUART LN
RMSY 419000 RANCH 270 S FRANKLIN TPKE
RMSY 499000 S/L 274 NORMAN DR
RDGPK 170000 COL 39 TEANECK RD
RDGPK 370000 COL 106 RIDGEFIELD AVE
RDGWD 659000 S/L 701 HOWARD RD
RDGWD 799000 COL 198 ORCHARD PL
RDGWD 869000 COL 147 S VAN DIEN AVE
RVEDG 204500 COL 454 KINDERKAMACK RD
RVEDG 347000 RANCH 185 S BEECH DR
RVEDG 389900 C/C 228 MADISON AVE
RVEDG 534900 B/L 801 7TH AVE
RIVVL 679000 CONTP 39 JOHN SHINE CT
ROCHP 385000 B/L 10 DOROTHY AVE
RUTH 377000 COL 405 UNION AVE
RUTH 639000 COL 202 ORIENT WAY
SDLBK 364900 C/C 127 DANNA WAY
SDLRV 893900 C/C 36 OLD WOODS RD
TEANK 285000 C/C 154 TEANECK RD
TEANK 289000 COL 376 ROCKLEDGE PL
TEANK 410000 S/L 891 GREENWOOD RD
TNFLY 1275000 COL 79 DEPEYSTER AVE
TNFLY 1499000 S/L 212 CHURCHILL RD
TNFLY 2199000 CONTP 130 TEKENING DR
WSHTP 419000 C/C 855 RIDGEWOOD BLVD EAST
WSHTP 438777 S/L 483 OXFORD PL
WSHTP 499000 S/L 728 EASTVIEW TER
WSHTP 499900 S/L 754 WHITE BIRCH RD
WSTWD 439000 COL 481 KINDERKAMACK RD
WDCLK 449000 RANCH 1 KINDERKAMACK RD
WDCLK 949000 CONTP 5 CLAIRE CIR
WYK 729000 COL 752 HICKORY HILL RD
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Buying a house as a place to park cash putting large down payments down does not help. Plus I think rates are high. I would say a 3.5% loan is loan sharking.
Why when I made loans many years ago we charged two percent greater than our costs. So if we could borrow for 30 years at 6% we loaned it out at 8%
Today banks can access cash at near zero. 30 year mortgages should really be around 2.5%.
Nobody disputes the number of transactions that are happening. What’s in question is who gets the see them and who doesn’t.
What is funny is that I told folks to buy Ford Bonds at 40%, GMAC bonds at 27% and Citigroup bonds at 16% and the S&P from December 2008 till today. I told folks to beg borrow and steal to invest.
Only reason you do not have a boat load of money is when I grabbed you my neck and shook you for months at a time telling you about the greatest buying opportunity in your life time you despite my water boarding techniques insisted on remaining poor.
joyce says:
March 27, 2013 at 2:29 pm
JJ,
People would laugh at you less often if you stopped referring to everyone being a part of your fantasy land in your rantings.
“Buying a house as a place to park cash putting large down payments down does not help.”
Agreed, which is exactly what I’ve just stated.
What interest rates “should be” is not very relevant, what they are, is relevant. And they’re at historic lows.
What was the hammer price on 45 Franklin in Mahwah?
You are missing the point. Unless it is a case where mortgage interest rate are super low and other rates are high it is a zero sum game.
For example January 2011 you could have got a 30 year mortgage at 4% and A rated Munis at 6% due to whitney taking out a large mortgage was a slam dunk.
Today with low mortgage rates and low rates everywhere else it is a wash.
Statler Waldorf says:
March 27, 2013 at 2:36 pm
“Buying a house as a place to park cash putting large down payments down does not help.”
Agreed, which is exactly what I’ve just stated.
What interest rates “should be” is not very relevant, what they are, is relevant. And they’re at historic lows.
What was the hammer price on 45 Franklin in Mahwah?
Not closing until June, we won’t know until it closes.
You called me rich the other day (and referred to yourself as poor). You call me poor today and say you have boat loads of money.
Which is it?
FYI, not once have I said what I’ve personally done … but keep making your (wrong) assumptions and generalizations; continue on your path of ignorance.
65.JJ says:
March 27, 2013 at 2:34 pm
What is funny is that I told folks to buy Ford Bonds at 40%, GMAC bonds at 27% and Citigroup bonds at 16% and the S&P from December 2008 till today. I told folks to beg borrow and steal to invest.
Only reason you do not have a boat load of money is when I grabbed you my neck and shook you for months at a time telling you about the greatest buying opportunity in your life time you despite my water boarding techniques insisted on remaining poor.
joyce says:
March 27, 2013 at 2:29 pm
JJ,
People would laugh at you less often if you stopped referring to everyone being a part of your fantasy land in your rantings
You said you are short, own a restaurant and dont trust stocks or junk bonds.
Since food costs are way up and we lived through a big recession I doubt you had globs of cash to put in market in 2009.
I like short girls. I can fit more in trunk of my car. Just kidding.
Actually the poorest people in USA are folks in the bottom of the top 1% of earners.
Grim,
Maybe so.. but town that I am looking in had less sales in Feb 2013 than Feb 2012 though inventory dropped 30%. I think real estate cheerleaders are expecting low inventory to drive competition and sales thus prices. This -2.5 % drop indicates it will be rocky at best. I am not buying last years unsellable garbage at a premium just because low inventory. People may rush in early but no new inventory means no sales later. I am not sure how you can see it otherwise.
Let me help you out, retard.
I am not Jill.
We all know you can’t spell. Forgive me if I thought you could read, a little.
Bystander,
I am not buying last years unsellable garbage at a premium just because low inventory.
I believe that’s been my sentiment all along. I’m being told the flaming t.urd is all that’s available so you better buy it and do so at a premium. Let the masses digest it, I have no appetite for that stew.
What Joyce said.
grim 57
I meant decrease of ownership in younger ages compare to 1980 not to older age brackets . It is dramatic
if the percentage of younger homeowners decrease and assuming that number of houses and population of older homeowners increased then older homeowners must not own only a larger percentage of homes than 30 years ago but a much larger number of homes as well.
this is not an argument for buying or not but it has an effect on relative return: I believe buying with cash is not a good move.
Jill Joyce what’s the difference. To quote the great Andrew Dice Clay
joyce says:
March 27, 2013 at 2:57 pm
Let me help you out, retard.
I am not Jill.
We all know you can’t spell. Forgive me if I thought you could read, a little.
I meant decrease of ownership in younger ages compare to 1980 not to older age brackets . It is dramatic
Looks like a rabbit making it’s way through a snake, at least it would be easier to visualize graphically anyway.
US Homeownership by Age Group (Decennial Census)
25 to 34 years
1980 51.6% (Boomers were 17-35 in 1980, they owned this segment)
1990 45.3% (Boomers became a smaller part of this segment in 1990, 27-45)
2000 45.6% (By 2000, there were no more boomers here, firmly Gen X, 21-36)
2010 42.0% (Boomers now 47-65, long gone, GenX leaving this group, 31-46)
The problem I have with this is that this isn’t the proportional share of all homes owned by age group, this is the rate of homeownership within the age group. It would be much more telling if it was the latter. Why? Doesn’t take into account the size of the age group.
We know that Gen Y, the echo boomers, are now a larger cohort than the boomers were at their age, which means there is another rabbit making its way through the snake. The poor Gen X’ers are the gap between the rabbits.
I agree and disagree, I am trying to see how much off in final negotiations I can get if I buy cash. We are getting to summer rental time. Home prices rise the most in summer places in Late March till Early May than fall like a brick. Why cause anyone getting a mortgage knows process can get 2-3 months and if you put a bid in that is accepted in June you wont get to enjoy property that summer and will be stuck sitting on it till next summer.
This weekend is a dead weekend to do open houses and house tours do to Easter. If my deal falls apart in contract in next few days owner has to restart process in April, unless he gets a buyer in next few weeks his spring season is over and he is stuck with house for winter.
I just want 5k off for cash. Considering unit is empty cash gets me whole summer in place. Saves me like 8K up front and gives me chance to get the little renovation it needs done by June.
The realtor in the middle is messing things up. She is fixated on getting owner to fix all issues in house and hold house an extra two months empty so she can get an extra $250 bucks and end up costing owner and me money. Costing owner money as he will end up carrying home an extra two months costing me money as I am paying more. I just wish I could pay her the $250 bucks
If realtor did not exist I could buy place 15K cheaper, owner would get more and we could close this week.
maybe buyer says:
March 27, 2013 at 3:32 pm
this is not an argument for buying or not but it has an effect on relative return: I believe buying with cash is not a good move.
JJ, if making money is so easy and risk-free, why live in a split-level, when you’ve stated numerous times you want to live in a manse on the North Shore?
A 1 or 2 million dollar house shouldn’t be that much of a financial consideration when making wheelbarrows of money is so easy and predictable.
Although I have never been laid or or gone on disability in my life. I have seen so many people leverage themselves up only to get sick or laid off and lose it all. I could not sleep at night with a large mortgage.
I backed out of a 500K short sale down there that needed 100K work that was a 750k house when done. Realtor thought I was insane, I needed to show proof of funds and I had the cash.
Just shelling out that much cash at once, losing that much income stream, then a house that size all done had 10K taxes and 3k insurance and it was a lot to handle.
Originally, I missed out on a 700 square foot bungalow for 320K in very good condition, all mechanicals in the attic, no basement, that was raise up. Did not even need flood insurance and 4k in taxes. Realtor thought it was insane I wanted little house. You know what I wanted to write check, get small, easy to fix thing cheap I never had to worry about renting. My neighbor owns a small bungalow and told me unless he gets a winter tenant he just closes it for winter. Something folks cant do with a large house.
Also dont want something big, in bad shape or with a big mortgage in case I drop dead. My dad bought a fixer upper with a mortgage and promptly dropped dead.
What I am buying, I most likely will pay cash if I get a little off or take a small HELOC vs primary I can pay off in 2-3 years. Condo needs at most 5k worth of work, for that price I can paint whole thing and do all minor repairs. Then no matter what happens I have no stress. Even better maint includes flood insurance, and no snow shoveling or lawn mowing.
I know logically the large house you can blow out, expand rent for big bucks. Much better money maker. But I just wanted a place under 320K that was easy to manage with low taxes right near beach. It is not about the money.
I once ran a share house that was six bedrooms, tennis court with an inground pool on an acre in the hamptons. OMG I spent like 6 hours every weekend going through maids bills, lawn bills, pool service stuff, etc. It was a second job. I missed my first bungalow with no lawn or no ac, no work. If I want a big monster thing on the beach I will go on vacation.
Statler Waldorf says:
March 27, 2013 at 4:22 pm
JJ, if making money is so easy and risk-free, why live in a split-level, when you’ve stated numerous times you want to live in a manse on the North Shore?
A 1 or 2 million dollar house shouldn’t be that much of a financial consideration when making wheelbarrows of money is so easy and predictable.
Paying cash or taking a 15 year term depends where you are in life. If you are 10 years away from retirement, you try to minimize risk and put in my case 25 percent exposure to stocks. Having a paid home lessens the worry of being able to afford a mortgage later. You can always stay put not worrying about the value of the home or selling to touch equity.it is like paying cash for a car. Itbtakes you where you want to go in this case a roof over your head not , iworrying if you loose the job if you can afford the monthly payments. Yes you are right, in my younger days I will have taken chances for higher yield.
Looking forward to the jokes made re: #84
Scrapple, you have mail.
Went to meet builder and see lots today. The lots he showed me I didn’t like, but he is building spec nearby and I liked the floorplan. Cost isn’t much more than a lot of what I’m seeing for used houses that I could get for 100k less but would have to put in 120k of work.
At least he serves it up at the beginning so you don’t have to wade through the whole post…….
joyce says:
March 27, 2013 at 5:02 pm
Looking forward to the jokes made re: #84
Clipping coupons dumbass…..
JJ says:
March 27, 2013 at 12:42 pm
Are you a Priest or a Christmas Tree?
Unless your balls are only for decoration you need to man up and start doing some real trading.
Can We Predict When People Will Abandon the Jersey Shore?
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2013/03/20/can-we-predict-when-people-will-abandon-the-jersey-shore/
Although I have never been laid or or gone on disability in my life.
I guess all JJ’s female stories were fake after all.
This is a guy who can’t sleep at night if he has a mortgage but sleeps like a baby knowing a small rainstorm can wash away his whole neighborhood.
Marc Faber:
“When you print money, the money does not flow evenly into the economic system. It stays essentially in the financial service industry and among people that have access to these funds, mostly well-to-do people. It does not go to the worker. I just mentioned that it doesn’t flow evenly into the system. Now from time to time it will lift the NASDAQ like between 1997 and March 2000. Then it lifted home prices in the U.S. until 2007. Then it lifted the commodity prices in 2008 until July 2008 when the global economy was already in recession. More recently it has lifted selected emerging economies, stock markets in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, up four times from 2009 lows and now the U.S. So we are creating bubbles and bubbles and bubbles. This bubble will come to an end. My concern is that we are going to have a systemic crisis where it is going to be very difficult to hide. Even in gold, it will be difficult to hide.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/marc-faber-i-am-sure-governments-will-one-day-take-away-20-30-my-wealth
93. JJ is a dying breed. A man’s man. A complex amalgam of testosterone and chutzpah. I try to live by these standards myself and somehow come up short. Nut not JJ. JJ wins. America loves a winner. Me? I do two IPOs during the salad days and come up snake-eyes. JJ, never loses.
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