From HousingWire, a pawn of the real-estate-industrial-complex:
Borrower spends on lingerie … should they get a loan mod?
During the course of foreclosures when parties are discussing or attempting loss mitigation, borrowers submit financial records for lenders and servicers to review.
Sometimes, these records show a borrower’s financial condition to be unhealthy – not due to hardship like loss of job, reduction in income, divorce, medical bills, or funeral expenses – but due to uncontrolled, undisciplined, and/or unnecessary personal discretionary spending.
Review of some financial records have shown significant funds being spent on fast food, food deliveries, music downloads, lingerie, vacations, gambling at casinos and online, and even psychic advice instead of on existing financial obligations.
Then, after all of this money is spent on these non-essential items, borrowers want their lenders/servicers to modify their mortgages – the terms of which they previously agreed to in writing – to get them out of their financial rut. They want lenders/servicers to take the hit for their financial irresponsibility.
This should be no surprise to lenders/servicers as mainstream media, government officials at all levels, and many in the court system believe that mortgagors can do no wrong and are victims of a banking system that is coined as “the evil empire,” “predatory,” and “greedy.”
It seems that mortgagors have become a de facto protected class. It appears to be taboo or politically incorrect to discuss borrowers’ excessive personal discretionary spending at court proceedings including mediations. If such topic is broached, the response is likely met with comments like: “the bank is beating up on the homeowner.”
With mainstream media, government officials, and others repeatedly referring to borrowers as victims, the victim syndrome has become ingrained in our collective social consciousness. This card cannot be played indefinitely.
From the Record:
Rebound expected in N.J. home prices
After a six-year slide, New Jersey’s housing market appears to be at a turning point, with prices expected to rise this year.
As the market enters the traditionally lively spring selling season, a constellation of factors — more affordable prices, low mortgage rates and a recovering job market — is drawing more buyers. Inventories are tightening as sellers hang back, pointing to a rise in home prices for the first time since 2006.
This reversal was underscored Thursday by East Brunswick appraiser Jeffrey Otteau, who tracks real estate statewide. He predicted that an increase in buyer demand and a shrinking supply of homes will work together to push up prices 3 percent this year in New Jersey.
“But it would not surprise me to see a 5 or 6 percent rise,” said Otteau, whose reports are closely followed by the industry. He was speaking in East Hanover at a seminar for real estate agents.
…
Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with CohnReznick in Roseland, sees New Jersey home prices rising 5 percent this year. And Marlyn Friedberg of Friedberg Properties in Tenafly reported that prices are being pushed up as buyers again bid against one anotherfor homes.
Nonetheless, home values are back only to the levels of late 2003, and still about 25 percent below their peaks of mid-2006, during the housing boom. Values won’t reach those heights again until 2019, Otteau predicted.
…
One question mark is the effect of a large backlog of distressed properties that piled up in New Jersey as the mortgage industry dealt with questions about its handling of foreclosure paperwork. Those properties have begun moving onto the market, but Otteau said that outside of urban areas, they’re not pulling down prices as much as expected, in part because of buyers’ heightened demand for homes.
…
Overall, inventories statewide are at their lowest levels in seven years, Otteau said. While a brightening job picture is drawing buyers back into the housing market, many homeowners remain wary about selling.
According to a Fannie Mae survey in February, only 25 percent of people said it’s a good time to sell, while half of those polled said prices are likely to rise over the next 12 months.
…
Others are reluctant to accept prices that are still so far below their recent peaks.
“Even those who have equity [in the home] may not be willing to go on the market because they’re not satisfied they would get what they think the property is worth,” O’Keefe said.
Friedberg, however, predicted that more sellers will return to the market this spring, after years of holding back.
“People are beginning to say, ‘I’ve got to get on with my life,’” she said.
From the WSJ:
Homeowners, Name Your Price
If someone offered you $1 million for your home, would you sell?
Real-estate listings company Zillow wanted to find out. In 2006, the company created a feature called “Make Me Move,” which lets homeowners name their “dream price” that would compel them to move.
Here’s how it works: A homeowner enters his street address to find it in the Zillow database. While the website indicates that the home isn’t for sale, the owner can add details, such as the number of bedrooms, bathrooms and upgrades, along with his dream price. Via email, any potential buyer can contact the owner, whose name isn’t disclosed, and make an offer.
Make Me Move is a way for people to dip their toe in the market before officially listing their home, says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. “People can say, ‘It’s not for sale right now, but here’s a listing price that I would entertain if offered,’ ” he adds.
More than 149,199 Make Me Move homes are currently listed on Zillow, up 12.3% since 2008, two years after the feature launched. The company broke down Make Me Move sales by region: 37% of the homes sold were in the West; 25% were in the Midwest; 21% in the South; and 17% in the Northeast.
Still, the success rate is relatively low, Mr. Humphries says. Roughly 2% of homes listed on Make Me Move last year actually sold—527 total. This is partly because some homeowners pull their homes off Make Me Move and officially list them, so their sales aren’t reflected as a Make Me Move transaction, he says.
But those that do sell come fairly close to the owners’ dream price. Last year, Make Me Move homes typically sold for 7% less than the homeowner’s asking price. In official listings, homes sell for an average 4% below the last asking price.
Sounds like my SIL. Always money for luxuries, never for basics. Still waiting for the cash I lent them to pay their 2007 tax bill. Now SIL want my wife to sign over her share of inheritance. I told her sure, as long as they put in writing that we have no finincial responsibility for them when they p*ss away the houses, parents savings, and hock the RE to where the bank repossesses all their property. Now I’m in the dog house for being mean. Wife’s family a microcosm of US.
reinvestor101 says:
March 25, 2013 at 7:20 am
And another thing…did you see Indiana give those dirtbags from Temple a beatdown yesterday? The Hoosiers will not be denied this year.
Syracuse 61 – Indiana 50
Good Morning New Jersey
[4] orange,
You really enjoyed that, didn’t you?
Very much so.
From Zero Hedge.
The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as ‘parabolic’ so we decided to go in search of this mystical anecdotal surge that is so often heard on the airwaves of the preachers. It turns out, the recovery (if that’s what you want to call it) is not so much. Just as in Europe, it seems if we repeat the same lie (or hope) often enough, it may just come true. So it is in the US. Headlines crow of YoY gains and ad hoc surges (Vegas and Silicon Valley) but if you dig down just an inch or two into the real data, the housing ‘recovery’ is the little train that isn’t. As Bloomberg notes, regional home prices have recovered to only 2004 levels and while the REO-to-Rent model remains for the late-to-the-gamers, it is inevitably a self-destroying bubble if there is no organic growth and one glance at the rate of mortgage applications (‘real’ buyers) says all we need to know about the housing ‘recovery’.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/spot-housing-recovery
The number of homes overall in foreclosure or bank-owned rose by 9 percent to 1.5 million properties nationally in the first quarter of 2013 compared to a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.Another 10.9 million homeowners nationwide remain at risk because they owe more than their property is worth, according to company vice president Daren Blomquist.Blomquist said the number of zombie properties could be higher than represented in the RealtyTrac report, which used a conservative methodology.
This may not have hit NJ as hard as it has in other states, but we are not exempt.
There is a difference between “recovery/recovering” and “recovered”, we want the former, but it’s simply too soon to see anything approaching the latter. I doubt there is much consensus around what “recovered” even means, is it “recovered” as defined by long term trendlines? Is it “recovered” as defined by peak bubble prices? Is it “recovered” by returning to typical/normal trends and patterns?
The market is “recovering” it is not “recovered”, we should not expect pricing to even remotely approach bubble levels for many, many years.
When I talk recovery, I’m talking about recovery from the buyer’s perspective, always. Not the sellers, not the flippers, not the wishers, not the dreamers.
Likewise, when I talk about markets returning to “normal”, I’m talking about returning to trends and levels seen well before the peak, late 90s, and very early 00s. Normal is the antithesis of what we saw during the bubble years.
From a buyer’s perspective, “recovered” in terms of peak pricing would be very bad news. We don’t want a “recovered” market. We want “recovery” in the sense that pricing has bottomed and the risk of future declines is minimized (I did not say eliminated). It is in this environment that the new buyer can consider a purchase transaction with many of the associated datapoints and variables at a level that makes much more sense than it did 7 years ago.
The bubble didn’t burst simultaneously, we pondered that for about 2 years straight on this blog, so it’s silly to think that the recovery would somehow be orchestrated in that kind of fashion.
How many people really NEED to buy a house? I mean NEED in terms of being homeless if they don’t buy a house. It is mostly about want-what people want. I am guilty of that too. I want a nicer yard, I want a family room with a fireplace, I want my own ensuite, I want new furniture, but that doesn’t mean I am going to just go out and buy it. The buyers who bought at the peak should have had the common sense to realize that there was no way that the value of their house would continue on an upward track. It is and should be their problem if they can’t afford the house anymore-never actually could afford the house in the first place.
Grim [10];
That deserves to be on the front page.
People need “shelter” – You’ll either rent it, buy it, or sleep in your parents basement. There is a fourth option, but most people I know would like a roof over their head.
Renting, currently, is not the slam dunk case it was 7 years ago. Rents are substantially higher, and if you thought inventory was thin on the purchase side, really spend some time looking for a rental. Most folks that just blindly spit out the “just rent something” response probably haven’t spent any time at all in the last 5 years looking at rentals.
Have 3 kids and are looking for a good school system? Good luck finding a rental that doesn’t make you double take at the price, because it will absolutely be on-par with a mortgage and property taxes. If you are willing to pay that, and are lucky, maybe you’ll find something that doesn’t disgust you too. I suppose a good argument against this is that you don’t really need 3 kids either.
I will guarantee you that your mortgage and property taxes are HALF of what it would cost you to rent the equivalent house. I can show you a 3/2 off of Valley just up the road that is asking $2,700/mo (and its not even nice). That’s $35k+ out of pocket to rent a 3 bedroom in a town in the bottom third HS rankings. Easily add another thousand a month to that to get into the top third.
have to admit that never been to a Wal-Mart, but the question is why are they doing this? is this a political action to keep unemployment high? they could easily hire thousands of people.
most people here are proud Wal-Mart shoppers. wonder what u think
Customers Flee Wal-Mart Empty Shelves for Target, Costco
By Renee Dudley – Mar 26, 2013
Margaret Hancock has long considered the local Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) superstore her one- stop shopping destination. No longer.
During recent visits, the retired accountant from Newark, Delaware, says she failed to find more than a dozen basic items, including certain types of face cream, cold medicine, bandages, mouthwash, hangers, lamps and fabrics.
The cosmetics section “looked like someone raided it,” said Hancock, 63.
Wal-Mart’s loss was a gain for Kohl’s Corp. (KSS), Safeway Inc. (SWY), Target Corp. (TGT) and Walgreen Co. (WAG) — the chains Hancock hit for the items she couldn’t find at Wal-Mart.
“If it’s not on the shelf, I can’t buy it,” she said. “You hate to see a company self-destruct, but there are other places to go.”
It’s not as though the merchandise isn’t there. It’s piling up in aisles and in the back of stores because Wal-Mart doesn’t have enough bodies to restock the shelves, according to interviews with store workers. In the past five years, the world’s largest retailer added 455 U.S. Wal-Mart stores, a 13 percent increase, according to filings and the company’s website. In the same period, its total U.S. workforce, which includes Sam’s Club employees, dropped by about 20,000, or 1.4 percent. Wal-Mart employs about 1.4 million U.S. workers.
Disorganized Stores
A thinly spread workforce has other consequences: Longer check-out lines, less help with electronics and jewelry and more disorganized stores, according to Hancock, other shoppers and store workers. Last month, Wal-Mart placed last among department and discount stores in the American Customer Satisfaction Index, the sixth year in a row the company had either tied or taken the last spot. The dwindling level of customer service comes as Wal- Mart (WMT) has touted its in-store experience to lure shoppers and counter rival Amazon.com Inc.
Wal-Mart (WMT) traded at a 1.4 percent discount to Target last week on a price-to-earnings basis after averaging a 5.9 percent premium to its smaller rival in the past two years. Wal-Mart traded as high as a 22 percent premium to Target in January 2012. Wal-Mart fell 0.1 percent to $74.77 at the close in New York.
“Our in stock levels are up significantly in the last few years, so the premise of this story, which is based on the comments of a handful of people, is inaccurate and not representative of what is happening in our stores across the country,” Brooke Buchanan, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement. “Two-thirds of Americans shop in our stores each month because they know they can find the products they are looking for at low prices.”
‘Getting Worse’
Last month, Bloomberg News reported that Wal-Mart was “getting worse” at stocking shelves, according to minutes of an officers’ meeting. An executive vice president had been appointed to work on the restocking issue, according to the document.
At the supercenter across the street from Wal-Mart’s Bentonville, Arkansas, home office, salespeople on March 14 handed out samples of Chobani yogurt and Clif Bars. Thirteen of 20 registers were manned — with no lines — and the shelves were fully stocked.
Three days earlier, about 10 people waited in a customer service line at a Wal-Mart in Secaucus, New Jersey, across the Hudson River from New York, the nation’s largest city. Twelve of 30 registers were open and the lines were about five deep. There were empty spaces on shelves large enough for a grown man to lie down, and a woman wandered around vainly seeking a frying pan.
Wal-Mart’s restocking challenge coincides with slowing sales growth. Same-store sales in the U.S. for the 13 weeks ending April 26 will be little changed, Bill Simon, the company’s U.S. chief executive officer, said in a Feb. 21 earnings call.
Target Premium
“When times were good and people were still shopping, the lack of excellence was OK,” said Zeynep Ton, a retail researcher and associate professor of operations management at the MIT Sloan School of Management in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “Their view has been that they have the lowest prices so customers keep coming anyway. You don’t see that so much anymore.”
Shoppers are “so sick of this,” said Ton, whose research, published in Harvard Business Review, examines how retailers benefit from offering good wages and benefits to all employees. “They’re mad about the way they were treated or how much time they wasted looking for items that aren’t there.”
grim, if 14 is too long, cut it in half.
Who is working today? The train was surprisingly light.
Stu, I was on the train as well and surprised how empty it was.
The commute was nice. I actually got an aisle seat with no one squished into the middle seat. When that parking garage in Bloomfield Center opens, it’s gonna be like The Darjeeling Limited.
The market are not going to return to normal functioning until prices approach previous peak levels. The vast majority of people cannot fathom anything, but a rationalization that they played the game correctly. Nominal pricing is all that matters.
grim says:
March 29, 2013 at 8:15 am
Likewise, when I talk about markets returning to “normal”, I’m talking about returning to trends and levels seen well before the peak, late 90s, and very early 00s. Normal is the antithesis of what we saw during the bubble years.
The market is not going to return to normal functioning until prices approach previous peak levels. The vast majority of people cannot fathom anything but a rationalization that they played the game correctly. Nominal pricing is all that matters.
sorry, had to do that….
Lib +1 orient express
What is worse being a jet fan, met fan? Santanna done for the year. Rangers suck. I think I’m going to learn a language over the summer lord knows I won’t have baseball to waste time with.
The Mets absolutely ruined Santanna when they kept him in for the no hitter. Dumbest decision ever. One record broken in exchange for two seasons (maybe more) down the drain. Wilpon (a close friend of my fathers) is a sh1t for brains. It’s no surprise he got caught up in the Madoff Scandal. Fred played ball with my dad in high school. Another very good player (who didn’t pitch at the time) also played on that team.
The “market” is a rig-up. All will proceed in a zombiefied state until it all collapses.
Guns, gold, hard perimeter.
All else is noise.
Libtard
How do you find train commuting to the city? How reliable is it? Delays? Weekends? Walk or drive to station? Satisfied? Are some stations better than others?
Maybe…I’m running into a meeting, but when I return, I’ll give you the deets.
#13 grim
On rents I think it is a more yes and no answer. I don’t think lack of inventory drives up prices that much. It will allow some price premium but not much. I think it is more a case in that it drags up the lower tiers to where you have the $350K Cape at $2200 against the $450K ranch at $2600, $600K McMansion at $3,500K. In some towns that ranch can go higher, but the McMansion tops out.
You also have the micromarkets like Hoboken that is mostly rentals; high price for a crpshack. Or how about Paterson; low rent as the market will not support higher.
My lease has been up for a few months and I haven’t heard from my landlord in a year. I keep sending the checks and the company keeps cashing them. So long may that continue. This place is an outlier as the rent is half the amount of the PITI. After property taxes, the landlord is getting about 0.5% return on his purchase price.
That reminds be that I still have a thank you gift here for you, for the lease negotiations and the walkthrough for the lease was the last time I saw you.
27 – Did you ever do anything with the place in mp? I liked that place.
#22 Lib
That just accelerated a known problem. Every scout said that his arm could not sustain his throwing action.
#28 grim
Cut it loose very cheap. Took a big loss which was fine and the buyer got the deal of the century. But with all I had on I didn’t need the hassle of being a landlord. Heard they lost power for 5 weeks in Sandy.
#27..are utilities billed separately on these house rentals?
it is one of the biggest Christian holidays and these guys are surprised about the light commute.
re# 20 – Chi why are you still renting?
Lib being a mets fan is like being a battered wife without the apologies afterwards.
“cannot fathom anything but a rationalization that they played the game correctly”
In America winning is all that matters.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/26/us/nike-tiger-woods
Rental prices in #27 are on the light side.
350K Cape at $2200 against the $450K ranch at $2600, $600K McMansion at $3,500K.
Just looking back over the past few weeks.
3/1.5 Ranch, Oakland, $2,600
3/2 Col, Teaneck, $2,600
3/1.5 Col, RE, $2,700
4/2 Cape, Closter, $2,700
4/2 Cape, Wyk, $2,700
3/2 Cape, Paramus, $2,725
3/2 Ranch, Paramus, $2,750
3/2 Bi, Ft Lee, $2,800
4/2 Bi, Paramus, $2,800
3/2 Ranch, Cresskill, $2,850
4/2 Split Level, Harrington Park , $2,900
3/1.5 Split, Ridgewood, $2,900
4/1 Vic, Westwood, $2,900
4/2 Split, Paramus, $2,950
3/1.5 Split, Tenafly, $2,950
4/2 Col, Ridgewood, $2,995
3/2 Col, Fairlawn, $2,995
4/2 Col, Paramus, $3,000
3/2 Split, USR, $3,100
4/2 Col, Paramus, $3,100
3/2 Bi, Ridgewood, $3,100
3/3 Bi, USR, $3,150
4/3 Bi, Ridgewood, $3,200
4/2 Split, Paramus, $3,200
3/1.5 Split, HoHo, $3,200
3/2 Split, Ridgewood, $3,250
5/2 Cape, Ridgewood, $3,300
3/2 Split, Demarest, $3,300
4/2 Split, Demarest $3,350
3/2 Split, Glen Rock, $3,400
(these are still not “fancy” or “mcmansion” by far)
4/2 Split, Oradell, $3,400
3/2 Contemp, Ridgewood, $3,550
4/2 Col, Ridgewood, $3,600
3/3 Ranch, Demarest, $3,700
3/2 Split, Wyckoff, $3,800
4/3 Col, Paramus, $3,900
4/3 Col, Closter, $3,900
4/3 Contemp, Franklin Lakes, $3,900
4/2 Col, Ho Ho, $4,350 (nice looking joint)
4/3 Contemp, USR, $4,350 (rented for over asking)
5/4 Col, Franklin, $4,500 (this is McMansion territory)
4/3 Col, SR, $4,500
4/4 McMansion, Norwood, $4,950
4/3 Col, Tenafly, $4,950 (McMansionesque, not huge)
4/3 Contemp, Cliffs, $5,200
4/3 Col, Englewood, $5,900
4/4 McMansion, Fly, $6,250
5/4 McMansion, FtLee, $6,500
5/5 McMansion, Closter, $6,650
5/3 Col, USR, $6,800
5/7 McMansion, Franklin Lakes, $7,000
5/5 McMansion, Norwood, $10,000
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/03/nj_man_was_speeding_and_high_w.html
N.J. man convicted of being high and driving 95 mph with 6 grandchildren in car
An Essex County man has been convicted of driving 95 miles per hour on a Virginia highway with six unrestrained kids while high on heroin.
…
The youngsters, as it turned out, were Isaiah Hall’s grandchildren, ages 4, 6, 9, 12, 13 and 15. The family, which included Hall’s adult daughter, was returning to East Orange, N.J., after attending a funeral in North Carolina.
“No one had on a seat belt and there were two children who should have had been restrained in booster seats by Virginia law,” said Hopewell prosecutor Elisabeth Custalow.
Tons of second floor apartments in 2 family houses in the $1,700-$2,200 range. Wallington, East Rutherford, Saddle Brook, Elmwood Park, Hackensack, Lodi, Bergenfield, Palisades Park, Ridgefield Park…
About commuting by train to NYC
Pros:
Cheaper than driving and much cheaper if you have to pay to park in NYC.
Quicker than driving and if commuting during rush hour, quicker than the bus.
You can sleep (if you get on far enough up the line to get a seat).
Relatively on time.
Lot’s of interesting seemingly impossible human feats occur on the train (may be a con to some).
Cons:
Not nearly as cheap as it should be and getting parking at stations closer to NYC may be impossible.
If you get on closer to the city, you have the choice of either standing or sitting in between two fat guys, one of whom may not have showered or just smells that way.
When the train is late it can be infuriatingly late. Rarely are delays ten minutes. It’s either on time or 60 minutes behind.
You are beholden to a limited schedule, especially after 7:30pm. If you work late frequently, the bus is a better option as it runs much more frequently and is a quicker option than the train outside of rush hour.
Though still quickest option during rush hour, it is still infuriating that train takes 35 minutes to go a total of 11 miles.
Penn Station is dreary and you question your career decision every morning and evening.
We are still working off a deal we signed in February 2009. The big negotiation is going to happen in March 2014. We are locked-in here until March 2015, but the rent is TBD.
To be clear, the purchasing market right now is really screwed up….do you think?
BearsFan has been looking in my local area……I use him as one of my local benchmarks. It sounds like a waste of time to me…..he has been on the front lines, ask him…..
Juice Box says:
March 29, 2013 at 11:29 am
re# 20 – Chi why are you still renting?
All of our neighbors and my son’s classmates’ parents are exceedingly unhappy. The only ones who aren’t bought in 2009-2010…..also, we have been here since 2009 and still no transactions on our cul-de-sac. Still two frozen houses and then two rentals. I saw two other houses on the market, but I have no idea whether they went under contract. I don’t follow and don’t care. If they were reasonable, I’m sure BearsFan would have mentioned them. I know one was listed at $999,999 and had no business being over $800,000 or so. The other is a pit inside, although nice grounds.
Chi – Bear might be a bull now. Let’s see if he will chime in.
As far as “the purchasing market right now is really screwed up”
Not for long JJ called it before I did Bull market, he is buying and I am buying. Heck even a Bear like you said Siemens and other manufacturers are going to create millions of Jobs here, drill baby drill. Even Tiger Woods is drilling again.
Was easier to buy when I bought in 2011, there were many more homes and the pricing really isn’t all that far off from where we are today. Hell, there might have been better priced properties on the market back then.
Hmm, actually almost identical, S&P Case Shiller, High Tier, Seasonally Adjusted.
March 2011 – 158.78 (Went ARIP)
January 2013 – 158.19 (Now)
41 – chi, the two I’ve seen recently are the ones right around the corner from you, east around the reservoir. The RimWood house (saltbox) caught a bid already from what I heard and is in review. We kicked around putting in an offer. The other house we are making a run at. We are, by my estimates, willing to overpay “a little”, but not much.
In hindsight, if I would have known 2 years ago or even thought their might be a chance rates would have dipped below 4% towards 3.5, I would have bought 12-18 months ago and attempted to refi (maybe a 4.6 to a 3.5), and wouldn’t have been as cautious on a house we liked but stalled out in the 500’s, 20k apart. Then again, we’ve squirreled away a lot of cash the last 2 years for a DP.
I think there are definitely things to see, and it’s not a complete waste of time, but it’s definitely effort. Nothing is priced correctly. Everything hits the market too high (for various reasons) and price discovery is painful. I’ve not seen one get bid up in any significant manner. Most seem to settle in the 5-8% range below ask (expected). Some have closed 150K below initial ask within 6 months. So how do u know? You don’t until you walk into the place. But it sucks when something “out of your range” closes within your range, but you never saw it cause it was initially priced way too high. Work.
I’m not bullish by any means. I still think this “bounce, recovery, fav word here” is a dead cat. There is def fatigue, and a strong urge to get on with our life, that may cause us to stretch a little more, but not much. In the end, my wife has said she don’t care, we’re not spending 600K+ on a 3/2 (2600 sqft) with no finished basement. Someone else can buy that, we’ll wait out the demographics and inflationary effects. But we are willing to pay if the value is there.
I’m with you Grim.
No one can nail the bottom (except for JJ) without a crystal ball. When we bought, we felt it was smarter to get in before the potential impending rise of either home prices or interest rates (or both). We also knew that inventory would become an issue once there was even the slightest inkling that housing might make any sort of a come back. There was and definitely still is pant up demand for sellers to try to claw back some of their unrealized housing losses through a sale at any price better than the lowest price. I know we cant trust the Zillows and the Trulias for accurate pricing, but I think one can have some muted faith in their trend lines. In the history books, the true bottom for Northern NJ will probably have been in early Spring of 2012. If that’s the case, we probably bought one year too early. Still, not sure we would have found the deal we found at any point in 2012. Just glad as hell noone accepted our earlier offers.
By the way, we are getting numbers for building a plain no frills wooden deck off our rear. How does 16*27 for $8,700 strike you? Keep in mind, we have to lay cement to secure it to the house as there is no wood to attach it too. Price is all in including cement pad at bottom of stairs as well as lattice and standard rails including on steps.
Lintard thanks for the commuting summary and fair enough.
#44
3/11 High tier close here too, I feel like I’m in good company.
$1,700-$2,200 in Lodi, ‘Sack or Garfield? Only if speak English, or are talking your own book.
My landlord is literally begging me to continue to rent her 2B/1.5BA northern Edgewater waterfront co-op for way less than even the lower bounds of that range!
Sometimes fence-sitters just get lucky.
Zieba,
I get $2,200 + heat for my 2nd floor 3 BR 1.5 BA in Montclair. That rental range seems appropriate. Mine includes parking for two cars, one in the garage too.
Word if the day is “bail-in”
Seems some feathers in Canada and Europe are being rusted about the possibility of a Bail-in in case of a Bank failure.
chifi – i really was never inclined to post actual properties on here for feedback. I’m one of those people that has some self-awareness left and doesn’t assume people give a sh*t about what I have to say, so I don’t post much.
If your using me as a gauge (i’m smiling), I will def post on here all details if I do get something, and don’t use me as a guide for anything over 700K. 5,6’s for us. If u do decide to look, don’t hesitate to ask if I’ve been in a particular house if its in that range.
But as Juice Box alluded to, I wouldn’t say I’m where he is yet, which is, if you find something you love, just give them what they want and get on with it. Even though if I used that approach 18 months ago, I’d prob be in a spot I’d be happy with. I still believe this is a credit story, and caving now seems irresponsible after seeing things through this far. I believe in my “thesis”, lol. But, I do agree with JB that I’d be willing to overpay if and only if, we found something we absolutely loved. I can’t see inventory getting any worse than the last 8 months. But WTFDIK. I’m flexible, I can be convinced otherwise if shown why.
I am not shitting you, the level of idiocy in the rental market is amazing. Stupid buyers? No no no, stupid renters.
I’m not posting addresses because it’s not fair to the renters, but here are some closed gems.
3/1.1 Elmwood Park – 1st floor of a 2 family – $2,000
3/2 Cape, Hackensack – $1,995
3/2 Condo, Hackensack – Newer – $2,400
2/2 Apartment in a divided Vic, Hackensack, $2,000
2/1 Condo, Lodi, $2,000 – Newer
3/1 Cape, Saddle Brook – $2,200
2/2 Apartment, Newer building, ‘Sack, $2,025 – rented for above asking
2/2 Condo, ‘Sack , Shitty, $1,850
3/1.1 half a duplex in Lodi, $1,700
2/1 1st floor of a 2 family in Lodi, $1,700 – tiny
4/3, on a main street, Garfield, $2,200 – ?????
Those prices are fine with me, so long as I’m not paying them.
You’re probably right on account of having your finger on the pulse, so to speak, but what really jumped out at me was the inclusion of Garfield in that list. If you’re speaking English to broker a place in Garfield, you’re going about it all wrong.
I have a friend in Clifton in a multi. He just rented his upstairs three compartment time capsule for $1,500. If I had to live with blue carpeting and pink bathrooms, I think I’d turn into Clot right quick.
Rental quality/price is largely situational. If you are in a position to pick through inventory, your outcome is usually better. Sometimes though, you just have to sign on the dotted line.
“mortgagors can do no wrong and are victims of a banking system that is coined as “the evil empire,” “predatory,” and “greedy.”
— Who gave the deadbeats mortgages in the first place? If only there were government regulations to protect helpless banks from conniving and shady home buyers.
11. Natasha: “How many people really NEED to buy a house? ”
In 2001, George Bush famously announced that every American should be a homeowner. And then proceeded to kick the government’s real raison d’etre into hyper drive: rigging the markets to enable banks to take advantage of stupid people doing what they do best: being stupid.
Ottoman, President Clinton in 1994 created: The National Homeownership Strategy, Partners in the American Dream.
“This past year, I directed HUD Secretary Henry G. Cisneros to work with leaders in the housing industry, with nonprofit organizations, and with leaders at every level of government to develop a plan to boost homeownership in America to an all-time high by the end of this century. The National Homeownership Strategy: Partners in the American Dream outlines a substantive, detailed plan to reach this goal.”
…
Action 35: Home Mortgage Loan-to-Value Flexibility
Action 36: Subsidies to Reduce Downpayment and Mortgage Costs
Action 37: IRAs and 401(k)s for Homeownership Downpayments
Action 44: Flexible Mortgage Underwriting Criteria
http://confoundedinterest.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/nhsdream2.pdf
I love the idiocy in the rental market…all the way to the bank. In just 11 years, without any home value appreciation or rental increases, I’ll make up my downpayment and everything I’ve made in improvements. Of course, that is if the Montclair tax man doesn’t keep raising the taxes so much that I can’t pass the increases on to my tenants.
I didn’t say it started with Bush, I said rigging the system was kicked into hyperdrive in with Bush. System rigging has been going on for a very, very long time.
George W. Bush, October 15, 2002:
More and more people own their homes in America today. Two-thirds of all Americans own their homes, yet we have a problem here in America because a few than half of the Hispanics and half the African Americans own the home. That’s a homeownership gap. It’s a — it’s a gap that we’ve got to work together to close for the good of our country, for the sake of a more hopeful future. We’ve got to work to knock down the barriers that have created a homeownership gap.
I set an ambitious goal. It’s one that I believe we can achieve. It’s a clear goal, that by the end of this decade we’ll increase the number of minority homeowners by at least 5.5 million families. (Applause.)
Some may think that’s a stretch. I don’t think it is. I think it is realistic. I know we’re going to have to work together to achieve it. But when we do our communities will be stronger and so will our economy. Achieving the goal is going to require some good policies out of Washington. And it’s going to require a strong commitment from those of you involved in the housing industry.
http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021015-7.html
Housing bubble was not partisan. Both sides want the IB lobby dollars. Only the sheep see it otherwise.
BearsFan – I am not overpaying, I am buying a totally updated house with 400k worth of improvements for a steal in my opinion. I am not the only bidder just the one with the biggest balls and if the appraisal does not come back within my reserve I can still walk. That is about as good as it gets for you see I am a winner. I won. I will be the hero of the neighborhood, all of the women will want me, the dogs won’t bark at me and the neighborhood kids will thank my kids for having such and awesome Dad.
It’s ok JB. You can simplify justify it the way the rest of us did. What’s an extra 50 to 100 K financed over 30 years at 3ish percent. That’s like a cup of coffee a day. Sh1t, you could sponsor some poor Sri Lanken for nearly the same amount.
Tard – Justify? You guys crack me up. I won. Me and Tiger Woods are gonna go out and hit the clubs and afterwards the strip. I am going to go out and get a dog too just like Michael Vick and then write a book. The title will be Rich Dad Cool Dad.
Clinton didn’t have a problem signing Gramm-Leach.
OMG I forgot how batsh!t crazy that Dubya speech was. I just don’t know which is my favorite quote:
“To open up the doors of homeownership there are some barriers,… First, down payments. A lot of folks can’t make a down payment. They may be qualified. They may desire to buy a home, but they don’t have the money to make a down payment. I think if you were to talk to a lot of families that are desirous to have a home, they would tell you that the down payment is the hurdle that they can’t cross. And one way to address that is to have the federal government participate.”
“All of us here in America should believe, and I think we do, that we should be, as I mentioned, a nation of owners. Owning something is freedom, as far as I’m concerned. It’s part of a free society. ”
Maybe this one: “Freddie Mac recently began 25 initiatives around the country to dismantle barriers and create greater opportunities for homeownership. One of the programs is designed to help deserving families who have bad credit histories to qualify for homeownership loans.”
lulz
Any if anyone wants and awesome 2 Br, 2Bath uptown Hudson St unit in Hoboken with parking and a large 10 x 20 outdoor deck drop me a line and I will hook you up with my landlord. This is NOT a hire-rise and only Winners need apply.
JB – I didn’t say you were overpaying… from what I recall glancing at the property that night, it seemed well worth it. I was just commenting on your overall statement you made to me, summed up “as I took it”, as, if you like it, just grab it.
Been reading here for a few months. Thought I recognized JJ (My wife was ‘back office’ working for your ‘big boss’ a few years ago- not a bad guy…for an Irishman).
BTW – (if it’s you – and your wife) ‘dem crabs and beers that night….whoa. Yeah, it was cheating but….
BearsFan – correct just find a house and steal it.
Ottoman, once again, you choose to paint your own reality. Read the 1994 report I’ve posted above, which mentions the same exact things (in policy not just words) but 8 years earlier.
Re:58
Lib, The only drawback is when you sell, the Government becomes your partner…it is called capital gains. I sold two buildings one in 2005, and one in 2006 . Writing checks out for $60,000 to the Fed and a smaller one to the state made me want to cry.
I have 18 units left and plan to sell them after I retire, there is plenty of pain to bear, not all roses. The write offs are great now, but the piper gets paid!
Jim
lol Statler. You’re showing your insecurities, perhaps you’re ashamed of being a Republican? I can imagine why. All I did was present an example.
Your policy doc is no more or less valid than the speech I posted. Both outline the administrations goals. However, I do wonder why Bush didn’t learn from Clinton. That’s certainly a poser —
January 2004 – “As part of President Bush’s ongoing effort to help American families achieve the dream of homeownership, Federal Housing Commissioner John C. Weicher today announced that HUD is proposing to offer a “zero down payment” mortgage, the most significant initiative by the Federal Housing Administration in over a decade. This action would help remove the greatest barrier facing first-time homebuyers – the lack of funds for a down payment on a mortgage.”
http://archives.hud.gov/news/2004/pr04-006.cfm
So the first two of 23 cartons of teddybears at various degrees of collectibility have arrived at my house, with the rest arriving in 2 weeks. I had to rent a storage unit to hold it all. Mom was quite the collector. Anyone know any teddybear collectors?
#36 grim
Here is an interesting view of that data. Ridgewood and Paramus have in interesting band for their market. It would be nice to build this data up and I think you will see the price bands in a town and a definite sweet spot in the price range.
3/2 Split, Demarest, $3,300
4/2 Split, Demarest $3,350
3/3 Ranch, Demarest, $3,700
4/2 Cape, Closter, $2,700
5/5 McMansion, Closter, $6,650
4/3 Col, Closter, $3,900
3/2 Cape, Paramus, $2,725
3/2 Ranch, Paramus, $2,750
4/2 Bi, Paramus, $2,800
4/2 Split, Paramus, $2,950
4/2 Col, Paramus, $3,000
4/2 Col, Paramus, $3,100
4/2 Split, Paramus, $3,200
4/3 Col, Paramus, $3,900
3/1.5 Split, Tenafly, $2,950
4/3 Col, Tenafly, $4,950 (McMansionesque, not huge)
4/4 McMansion, Fly, $6,250
3/2 Split, USR, $3,100
3/3 Bi, USR, $3,150
4/3 Contemp, USR, $4,350 (rented for over asking)
5/3 Col, USR, $6,800
4/2 Cape, Wyk, $2,700
3/2 Split, Wyckoff, $3,800
3/1.5 Split, Ridgewood, $2,900
4/2 Col, Ridgewood, $2,995
3/2 Bi, Ridgewood, $3,100
4/3 Bi, Ridgewood, $3,200
3/2 Split, Ridgewood, $3,250
5/2 Cape, Ridgewood, $3,300
3/2 Contemp, Ridgewood, $3,550
4/2 Col, Ridgewood, $3,600
3/1.5 Split, HoHo, $3,200
4/2 Col, Ho Ho, $4,350 (nice looking joint)
4/3 Contemp, Franklin Lakes, $3,900
5/4 Col, Franklin, $4,500 (this is McMansion territory)
5/7 McMansion, Franklin Lakes, $7,000
Here is a little NPR on the 14 million on disability.
“That’s a kind of ugly secret of the American labor market,” David Autor, an economist at MIT, told me. “Part of the reason our unemployment rates have been low, until recently, is that a lot of people who would have trouble finding jobs are on a different program.”
http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/
“The personal savings rate was just 2.6% and note that the BEA’s definition of “savings” includes debt repayment! As a consequence when the personal savings rate is under 5% or so it is virtually certain that people are in fact spending more than they make, and are operating in deficit. This rate is dangerously low and signals severe personal economic stress, especially when coupled with rising transfer payments.”
– ergh.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219242
75 – look, I had a lot of tequila, but that makes no sense to me.
If savings rate included debt repayment, how could it only be 2.6%? How could it have been hovering near zero? Nonsense. If we spent only 2.6% of disposable income on debt service that would be fantastic news.
Maybe the author doesnt realize that Mortgage payments are included in the PCE through imputed rent, just like in the CPI, and thus aren’t reflected as outright debt payments.
Likewise, personal interest payments is the code word for debt repayment, also not included in savings rate.
I can down a half a bottle of don Julio and still run Econ circles around those idiots.
Boo yah sir:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=aMZ
I suggest grim switch over to Ocho or Fortaleza.
Jill (#72)
Got Antique Toys? Call Bertoia Auctions. South Jersey.
greetings all:
have not visited much: I have been dealing with the current anti-gun legislation in Trenton (up to 73 bills and climbing). Last batch of bills will be before NJ senate in April. Senate President is not too happy with these bills and seems to understand the needs of gun owners.
Anyhow, could someone please tell me how much prices for lower tier homes in Northern NJ (morris county) declined in 2012. I am willing to bet between 3-5%. How far off am I?
Realtors have been hovering over us like vultures since we took our house off the market. They are dying to list our house for us. We get a call every day. The realtor who called yesterday told us point blank that the reason we were not able to find a suitable home is because the realtors are hoarding the good listings. When a good listing comes in they sell it without posting it. So lo and behold the cat is out of the bag and what we suspected all along is in fact true. All these transactions are happening but we are not privy to them.
Gotta pay the piper, even if it is decades later.
http://news.yahoo.com/argentina-offers-pay-debts-cash-bonds-040817493–finance.html
Morph [81];
Lobbying Trenton? I thought you did IP?
Wow you must be an even worse neighbor than me!!!
chicagofinance says:
March 29, 2013 at 12:27 pm
All of our neighbors and my son’s classmates’ parents are exceedingly unhappy.
I dont think I nailed the bottom in Real Estate. It is kinda bouncing around the bottom right now. Could stay here a few years more for all I know inflation adjusted.
My kids are perfect age to enjoy a little beach place, prices have fallen enough and I got six years for first kids starts school, so now I have lots of cash flow. Soon as I start that 12 years of college it will suck up cash with three kids.
Plus at around 300K, I just put down 200K, do a HELOC vs primary I can pay off 2-4 years it is not much. I was going to buy a bigger place and put down 200K and take a 400K mortgage for 30 years. But then I got change to buy a cheaper smaller place. I thought If I put down same 200K, take a HELOC that is fixed for first few years. I just pay it off before it adjusts. HELOC is 1.99% with no closing costs and I am only doing 100K as that is most I can take and deduct on taxes.
So place with flood insurance, property tax, home owners insurance maint, HELOC all in will be 1k a month. Plus loss of use of funds on 200K. Loss of use of funds is not as painful now that DOW nad Bonds fully valued. Big deal. It rents for 18K fo summer, 16K for winter or $2,400 year round.
Absolute worse case. It sits empty in winter and I use it all summer. Even if that happens. Beach Clubs are 8K to join, house is 12K and I suck up 4k.
I doubt that with divorces alone I should easily find a tenant for winter.
moose:
Nah…just e-mails and phone calls. not really lobbying–more like a concerned voter who is really pissed off!
Speaking of Rents. On of the units in my building just went for 20% over what I am paying now and was only one day on the market. My unit is nicer and I have large outside deck which is rare in my part of Hoboken being only steps to the ferry. Any renters that are planning on staying renters here are going to get nailed with increases, the school taxes alone are supposed to go up 4% this year even with declining enrollments.
Happy Easter.
“It appears, given news from Italy today, that European depositors are increasingly coming to the realization that deposits in their local bank are not ‘safe’ places to put their spare cash, but are in fact loans to extremely leveraged businesses. In a somewhat wishy-washy, ‘hide-the-truth’-like statement on Monte dei Paschi’s website, the CEO admits to, “the withdrawal of several billion in deposits.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-30/whos-next-italys-monte-paschi-admits-billions-deposit-outflows
Morph [81];
Not sure about MoCo last year specifically. There is one house in my neighborhood that is very comparable to mine that I like to use as a barometer. Sold in ’02, again in bubbly ’06 at +28%, now valuing below the ’02 price. That’s nominal, not real dollars. The ’06 buyers just rented it out, and it went quickly, at about what my PITI is. Best guess from public mortgage docs, they’ve got reasonable equity, but dayum.
90: moose:
I am getting confused. Looked over grim’s post for 3/26 7 3/27. If he is right, it looks like mid tier NJ is up 1.7 to 2.0% from last year. I bought in Dec. 2011. I am finding it hard to believe that my house has gone up in value. impossible!
Now, replacing 29 windows with low E, argon gas filled, energy efficient windows might have increased the value by $10K. At least it has made the house much warmer and I can walk around barefoot with out freezing.
76 – grim, sounds like u answered your own question, but maybe im still missing it.
I saw that the BEA stat of 2.6% savings rate, and read their definition (DPI less personal outlays). They defined personal outlays as PCE + personal interest payments.
So I think what Denninger was saying is that, yes, debt repayments are used to determine this rate, which is what you then said by saying mortgage debt is part of PCE. I’m not sure i’m seeing it, maybe need more sangria. :)
You should go to his site and ask him….:(
note that the BEA’s definition of “savings” includes debt repayment
This statement is incorrect.
I don’t have tiered pricing indices by County, we only have Case Shiller for the entire NY Metro.
Prices for Mid and High Tier have basically been flat since 2011. The only real declines in the past 2 years have been the low tier.
Low Tier (Below $258k)
January 2011 – 183.28
January 2012 – 174.45
January 2013 – 169.15 (Down 7.7% in 2 years)
Mid Tier ($258k-$425k)
January 2011 – 167.52
January 2012 – 162.43
January 2013 – 164.11 (Down 2% in 2 years)
High Tier ($425k+)
January 2011 – 158.21
January 2012 – 154.00
January 2013 – 156.19 (Down 1.3% in 2 years)
I want to know if morpheus will buy some assault weapons from me.
Geim go on CNBC using the stage name Don Julio that
Would be priceless.
grim: thanks for confirming my gut feeling. strange that I did not lose money.
Clot: what do you got? just remember to send it thru a FFL dealer and we are golden.
BTW assemblyman Cryan is introducing a bill: instead of an semi auto rifle with 2 “evil features” being banned, he now wants 1 “evil feature”. This would practically outlaw just about every semi auto rifle out there.
welcome to the people’s republic of New Jersey.
strange that when I was starting to look for homes almost 6 years ago, the “middle Tier” was considered the “lower tier”
The tiering reflects the decline in prices.
99: I figured as much. Thanks.
btw to all: got the quote to install the wood stove: $1500.00. They are able to install the stove into the fire place space so that only an inch or so of the stove extends out. I will assume that will make it easier for the town to approve it.
You talking insert?
Typically what’s done to convert a masonry fireplace to wood burning stove is to install a properly sized woodburning (or pellet) insert and then a chimney liner from the stove to the top of the chimney. Last time I checked it was a $3-$3.5k job all in. The insert isn’t cheap nor is the stainless liner.
101: no..we acquired a old, free standing, cast iron wood stove for free. I tested it: no leaks. For $1500.00, the installer will install it into the fireplace, install the steel liner and install a “fire shield”(forgive me, I don’t have the invoice in front of me). stove will barely fit into the fireplace.
#80: Not toys, just teddybears and other critters — Steiff, Boyd’s (which aren’t worth much), some artist bears from Maine, some German and English bears. 21 moving cartons worth.
[95] scrapple,
Morpheus can’t. The PRNJ forbids them, always has.
I, OTOH, can buy whatever you’re selling.
Don’t say that to my landlord. He bought out his siblings in 2005 at roughly $750K for a 4/2, and ploughed about $200K into it……he will be really upset if he couldn’t get a 6-handle on this place…..
BearsFan says:
March 29, 2013 at 1:27 pm
I’m not bullish by any means. I still think this “bounce, recovery, fav word here” is a dead cat. There is def fatigue, and a strong urge to get on with our life, that may cause us to stretch a little more, but not much. In the end, my wife has said she don’t care, we’re not spending 600K+ on a 3/2 (2600 sqft) with no finished basement. Someone else can buy that, we’ll wait out the demographics and inflationary effects. But we are willing to pay if the value is there.
chi – I think(know) your street is a different animal than what I’m looking at. If you want, I’ll email u what im looking at and share some info, only if your remotely interested. if so, holla.
Had clot ghost-written David Stockman’s NYT article today?
morpheus (91)
Care to share any additional details on your windows? Our whole house needs new and our trusted contractor told us he would install for us at $275 per window. Not Andersen or Pella or Marvin of course, a no-name brand he feels are good enough that he put them in his own house. He said they are not 50-year windows though, maybe 30. But he also thought most of the big box brand windows are crap anyway. Anyway, I am trying to figure out if its worth calling a few other installers to see what they would charge and clearly I am too lazy to research.