From the NYT:
Why Home Prices Change (or Don’t)
WHAT prices will today’s home buyers get if they sell a decade from now?
Most people live in their home for many years. They don’t need to view it as an investment at all, but if they do, they surely need a long forecasting horizon.
The problem is that modern economics has a poor understanding of past movements in home prices. And that makes the task of predicting the state of the market in 2023 challenging, at the very least. Still, we can learn something by analyzing the factors that affect home prices in general.
There has been some good news lately: home prices have risen over the last year, and with those gains there has been a renewed sense of optimism. But do these price increases mean that homes are now good investments for the long haul?
Unfortunately, no. We do know one thing from economic research: one-year home price increases, after correcting for inflation, have had almost no statistical relationship to increases 10 years down the road. Thus, the upturn last year is irrelevant to long-run forecasting. Booms are typically followed by busts, usually in far less than 10 years. In a decade, an entire housing boom, if there is one in inflation-corrected terms, is likely to have been reversed and completely washed away.
Inflation has a major impact on long-term home prices. So do the costs of construction. We’ll examine these factors now, and turn to other important influences like speculative pressures and cultural and demographic trends in subsequent columns.
Home prices look remarkably stable when corrected for inflation. Over the 100 years ending in 1990 — before the recent housing boom — real home prices rose only 0.2 percent a year, on average. The smallness of that increase seems best explained by rising productivity in construction, which offset increasing costs of land and labor.
Of course, home prices are likely to be much higher in 2023 when measured in nominal dollars — those that aren’t inflation-adjusted. Inflation is the deliberate policy of the Federal Reserve, with a target rate now of 2 percent a year as measured by the personal consumption expenditure deflator, or about 2.4 percent on the Consumer Price Index. At those rates, nominal prices will be roughly 25 percent higher, over all, in a decade.
Good Morning New Jersey
first
no
And some interesting commentary from Calculated Risk on this piece:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/shiller-and-upward-slope-of-real-house.html
I guess you are correct if you exclude the auto industry……
cobbler says:
April 14, 2013 at 10:43 pm
chi: I don’t want to get in a silly argument about patriotic (Germany/Japan) and unpatriotic businesses – but what Walmart had been doing was an open-eyed destruction of the American jobs to boost EPS faster than the natural rate of growth. Historically, major U.S. retailers treated their suppliers as partners – which implied understanding that profits are accrued and should be taken on every step of the chain. Walmart was the principal destroyer of this relationship model and change to “supplier shall be screwed” approach.
I could care less what it will be worth 10 yrs from now. I just want to view one house that is not a crapbox today.
The reason to shop local vs Walmart isn’t because the local business somehow deserves patronage simply because it’s local. It should be because the local store competes with Walmart on quality, selection and service. A lot of the people who’ve been put away by Walmart should have been, as they never really chose to do the hard work of competing.
It can be done. Anyone who’s been to Flemington Department Store (directly across the street from a Walmart) knows that they kick the Walmart’s ass on a daily basis.
BTW, housing is dead money for the next 50-100 years.
The only car makers to make inroads into the EU auto market are the Japenese. Germans buy German, Italians buy Italian, French buy French etc. Seems everyone is willing to buy Japanese though. EU politics play a role but a German once explained to me it was also because the Japanese put more standard equipment on a car than the Europans do. Compared to German models, the French are practically giving away small cars with 0% financing in Germany but still have trouble finding takers. Polish horse meat scandal is having the effect of making more people demand local products. Lots of resentment for EU open borders from the UK to the Med.
It should be because the local store competes with Walmart on quality, selection and service.
No, they don’t. You’ve chosen to leave out the one single factor that the local store has no chance at competing with, and that’s price. There is no way a local merchant can compete with the buying power of WM.
I’ve personally taken part in “negotiations” with WM procurement and sourcing, and I’ll say outright, there is no negotiation. They set the price, they set the terms, take it or leave it. The minute they find a better deal elsewhere, legal will simply break the contract that they’ve written dozens of loopholes into, leaving the supplier holding the bag.
would. many who say that would buy an American car do buy Japanese.
In honor of today being tax day, I thought I’d point out a new property tax, this from the state of Maryland, and one that is no doubt coming to a state near you.
It’s called the “Rain Tax”. The theory behind it is, rain that isn’t being absorbed into the ground leads to runoff, and that is bad for the environment. Things that prevent water absorption include roofs and driveways. So, the bigger the roof the larger the driveway, the higher the tax. GPS and satellite imaging will be used to determine the area of impermeability.
Residents can expect to pay an additional $50 to $200 on their property taxes.
30yr – the million dollar Paramus house
Shiny getting slaughtered.
[12] jason,
Not a new issue. Colo used to ban rain barrels for same reason.
before the recent housing boom — real home prices rose only 0.2 percent a year, on average
Nice almost double chase checking at 0.1 percent a year
Clot [7];
Anyone who’s been to Flemington Department Store….
What about all the Central American gang bangers you’ve been warning us about in Flemington?
All seriousness, that doomed Alexanders from my POV. My mother grew up near Kings Plaza and used to love shopping at the place, even after moving to SI, but stopped because she got to be afraid of walking through the parking garage.
#15
Different reasons, the runoff concentrates pollutants in waterways rather than them being absorbed into the ground and being filtered naturally.
And without the natural absorption, flash floods are a lot more likely. It’s part of the reason this state is so flood prone, so much of the ground has been developed(mcmansions).
Rain barrels are illegal out west because of water shortages.
pretty soon GLD and TIPS are getting to a point where you can buy protection cheap. Protection from inflation last two years were way too expensive so not worth buying. But we are getting near point where putting 5% into GLD or TIPS might be a prudent move
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
April 15, 2013 at 8:20 am
Shiny getting slaughtered.
Friend just got back from Hamptons and summer rents are up almost 30% since last year
Fine way of explaining, and nice paragraph to get facts regarding my presentation topic, which i am going to convey in school.
FWIW: Walmart will eventually be pounded to dust by Amazon.com…..but I guess you’d rather complain about social injustice than live in reality. At the end of the day, computerization of logistics, global source and supply and the internet has created a vast chasm between the useless and the value-adders…..in cold pragmatic terms, the middle class in the U.S. have to earn their middle class status. Most people are content to coast their entire lives, and ultimately, there is a price to be paid for that lack of vision. I apologize if it sounds terse and nasty, but the world is…..
chicagofinance says:
April 15, 2013 at 7:10 am
I guess you are correct if you exclude the auto industry……
cobbler says:
April 14, 2013 at 10:43 pm
chi: I don’t want to get in a silly argument about patriotic (Germany/Japan) and unpatriotic businesses – but what Walmart had been doing was an open-eyed destruction of the American jobs to boost EPS faster than the natural rate of growth. Historically, major U.S. retailers treated their suppliers as partners – which implied understanding that profits are accrued and should be taken on every step of the chain. Walmart was the principal destroyer of this relationship model and change to “supplier shall be screwed” approach.
I just got back from Whole Foods……I just found a jar of Organic Almond Butter……I figured some outlandish price would be $7 or $8………no joke … $23….. basically for a “jar of Skippy”…..there are definitely two different Amerikas right now…..
raging bull jj says:
April 15, 2013 at 9:23 am
Friend just got back from Hamptons and summer rents are up almost 30% since last year
Walmart’s eCommerce strategy has been largely a disappointment, primarily since they’ve been a laggard/follower from a technology perspective, but secondly, because they’ve bet that their same brick and mortar strategies would help them gain market share, and they haven’t. What you are left with is perhaps one of the most fragmented and confusing eCommerce experiences yet, which I think is driven by a kind of “me too!” approach towards functionality and user experience. No surprise here that they are attempting to mimic Amazon very closely, and are not doing a good job at it.
Chili,
Soon the criminals will start jacking up Whole Foods trucks.
Americans want a 12 pound jar of Vlasic Pickles for $2.79
Amazon gained a strong foothold due to the absence of tax collection. That is coming to an end. For savvy shoppers this will level the playing field.
22 Chifi
That will be the end of the middle class. The wealthy have no need for them. Middle class wants things like medical bennies, etc. It won’t be long before the lower upper classes eg. Doctors, start feeling the heat also. Meat has been right all along.
I remember the tax scam B&H used to always run for tourists and out of staters. You would go into the store and shop, but you wouldn’t take the goods home with you. Instead, they would process the transaction as phone/remote, and ship you the items. If you are talking high-end camera gear, the tax savings always eclipsed the cost of shipping. Always seemed shady to me, but I always did it.
DL,
I could care less what it will be worth 10 yrs from now. I just want to view one house that is not a crapbox today.
Amen! But, you won’t get to see those houses because they’re already sold just before it’s listed to the ‘public’. That transaction goes to the few realtors with ‘connections’ who give their clients the first shot.
It’s not about getting the highest price, it’s about getting the transaction closed. Two closings is better than one. You make money by volume and the more ‘exclusive’ listings one has, the better. There are a few realtors that make money and the other 95% struggle for two years and then drop out.
If you don’t know someone who knows someone, then the majority of us are fed the cold french fries and being asked to pay the prime rib price.
Claussens are better.
26.grim says:
April 15, 2013 at 9:51 am
Americans want a 12 pound jar of Vlasic Pickles for $2.79
Grim, sleep well at night. America is all about trying to get away with anything you can without getting caught. Contractors cheat, along with students , bankers, building inspectors, corporations, plumbers, accountants, cops——the list goes on forever. The older I get the more I realize rules REALLY are meant for suckers.
Eddie, stop speaking the truth. You Rae hurting the ears of my unicorns and they are screaming in pain. And yes, they can read too.
in honor of tax day
no one on here ever saw this coming
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324050304578412932073225110.html#printMode
god i hate that jack off in the white house
To Phoenix #28:
Actually doctors are already feeling it. They are now where dentist were 15 yrs ago; go to a dentist now and you’ll see -either cash & no insurance or an dentist/insurance mill.
I’m in healthcare, and you would not believe the amount of critical care medicine fellows that are finishing their program and can’t find job opportunities unless they go the boonies or take the worse places. These kids usually have a lot of student debt, unless they are foreigners (which usually means a family with assets paying the way).
Where 5-10 yrs ago they had a picking of group partnership practices – those are gone. The present model is what the company that bought out Christ, Bayonne, and Hoboken hospitals has done. Not only they run the hospitals, but they have created all types of primary and specialty groups owned by them. Physicians that work there are employees on production based commission. The old physicians that use to practice in those hospitals before the for-profit conversion have not been thrown out, but they are to feel unwelcome, unless they “partner up” and drink the kool-aid.
Hackensack and many NYC hospitals have done this with having their own staff intensivists and hospitalitist, but the for-profit companies are basically moving it a few notch upwards to Wall Mart competition style, either with us or out of here. In this area this is new, but outside this area – generally for-profit hospitals have operated this way for the last few years. Think total control of the market via Medicare Part A (hospital bases services) & Medicare Part B (outpatient, and physician services).
Now be Bernanke’s soon to graduate kid with close to $400,000 im student debt. Now you see why Bernanke is printing money away.
Phoenix,
Visit India if you want to witness cheating on rules.
Grim,
Lot’s of places did the tax loophole. About the only thing these places have in common is the religion of the owners (tribesman). When we bought our appliances for the GR kitchen, we paid for them in person in East Orange store (for the 3.5% sales tax) although we bought them in Fairfield (Karl’s). I wouldn’t buy from them again though. They lied about rebates which is why they sold the stuff to me so cheaply. They then wouldn’t honor the rebates. Still, I did well enough.
All,
Forget Whole Foods/Wegman’s for decent produce. Go to Route 46 Farmers market. Quality is excellent, prices are as cheap (or cheaper) than Corrado’s. Filled the cart with produce, final bill was $17. My racist barber recommended it. Heard there is a decent Mexican market (with veggies too) somewhere in Paterson.
Honestly, as much as I don’t appreciate O-man, it’s not so much what he does (he is a politican and the same as all the others), but rather the huge gap between how many perceive him versus what he is.
That said, I don’t have a problem with this 401(k) issue that is being overblown.
401(k)’s are for tax-deferral to retirement years. They were not intended as a multi-generational estate planning tool. Over the last 10 years these accounts have morphed into a weed-like state that barely resembles their foundations. These steps represent some pruning back. Only the most egregious offenders are going to affected by these changes.
Painhrtz – Doc Daneeka says:
April 15, 2013 at 10:18 am
in honor of tax day
no one on here ever saw this coming
god i hate that jack off in the white house
You saw that? I know correlation does not imply causation, but damn is that interesting…..
A lurker with a 2cnet opinion says:
April 15, 2013 at 10:31 am
Now be Bernanke’s soon to graduate kid with close to $400,000 im student debt. Now you see why Bernanke is printing money away.
Lib: I appreciate your el cheapo approach in general, but do so with food at your own peril. You should review lists of produce that should be eaten organic versus not. I am not advocating being a dumbass about money, but there is definitely certain things that need focus to protect your liver, kidneys, endocrine system and effectively your brains…..at minimum you owe it to your kids until they can make their own decisions on the matter. To be clear….fcuk the planet and fcuk fair trade and the whole agenda behind “organic”. I am merely focused on defending your health and your kids’……
Libtard in the City says:
April 15, 2013 at 10:51 am
Forget Whole Foods/Wegman’s for decent produce. Go to Route 46 Farmers market. Quality is excellent, prices are as cheap (or cheaper) than Corrado’s. Filled the cart with produce, final bill was $17. My racist barber recommended it. Heard there is a decent Mexican market (with veggies too) somewhere in Paterson.
I have a 529 question: What happens if you don’t use it all or none at all and want to withdraw? Do you pay a penality? Is it all considered capital gains or just the growth portion?
Grim [29];
Not a scam. State sales tax imposed on interstate commerce is unconstitutional. Even if you were to carry it out the door with you the distinction would be legit, but the tax authority can make the store ship it as evidence the goods went out of state.
Now the buyer is typically responsible to declare the goods on their tax return, and pay the tax — its a sales & use tax — to their home state (unless home state has no sales tax). NY recently put a ‘default’ $25 line item on their state returns as a way to pay tax on any out of state and/or internet purchases. The filer can zero that line out, or put in what they represent at the correct amount ($25 in sales/use tax is about $300 in purchases). But then they would be representing that they made no/less such purchases, the baggage that comes along with a possible misrepresentation and proving the number you picked. Paying the $25 shakedown was protection from audit on that issue if it ever came up.
Several years ago, I really got fatigued by BC Bob’s maniacal and frankly overbearing attitude about his gold investments. However, I hope wherever he is that he is doing alright through all of this period and possibly the next few weeks.
raging bull jj says:
April 15, 2013 at 9:13 am
pretty soon GLD and TIPS are getting to a point where you can buy protection cheap. Protection from inflation last two years were way too expensive so not worth buying. But we are getting near point where putting 5% into GLD or TIPS might be a prudent move
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
April 15, 2013 at 8:20 am
Shiny getting slaughtered.
Penalty applied to capital gain portion. All original contributions can come out without tax and penalty. That said…..unless you NEED the money, you may as well leave it in there for someone to use. The beneficiary designation is revocable…..you could even use it for yourself in retirement…..but save it for the kids grad school, kid of that kid (grandkid) or really anyone else……give the money to some realtor so they can get an associates degree…..
Fast Eddie says:
April 15, 2013 at 11:04 am
I have a 529 question: What happens if you don’t use it all or none at all and want to withdraw? Do you pay a penality? Is it all considered capital gains or just the growth portion?
ChiFi…We do organic when it’s necessary. Certain fruits and veggies hardly benefit (thick skins). Heavily sprayed or fertilized stuff does. Sadly, probably about 1/3rd of all produce (I’ve read in some literature that it’s more) is grown organically, but the farmers don’t want to pay for the cert. In many cases the organic farmers actually ship the same produce but label some organic and some not. I plan to get the organic garden growing again (used to have an awesome one at the multi). Talk about cheap produce. Especially when I went from seed in cardboard egg cartons.
ChiFi,
Thank you!
Chi [43];
In many cases the organic farmers actually ship the same produce but label some organic and some not.
I saw this in electronics manufacturing. The hot ‘green’ cert is RoHS (Reduction of Hazardous Substances — pronounced rōsh). It basically means mercury- and lead- free.
So one mfr I know sells both certified RoHS-compliant and not for the same parts — the cert. costs extra. What do you suppose the likelihood is that they went to the trouble of setting up two separate production lines and processes?
Redux [46];
SB — Lib [44]
Amen! But, you won’t get to see those houses because they’re already sold just before it’s listed to the ‘public’. That transaction goes to the few realtors with ‘connections’ who give their clients the first shot.
So I pulled a data dump, NJMLS, Bergen, 4/1-4/14, SFH
181 Closed Sales
145 of them were different buyer and seller agencies
36 of them were one agency (20%)
Of the 36 where buyer and seller used the same agency, 3 of them were only on for a week, 6 of them had a Days on Market of under 2 weeks (3.3%). 13 of them had a DOM of one month or less (7.2%). Average DOM for same agency sales is 100 days.
Today I mailed in estimated taxes for the first quarter only. The sum was more than the total income I earned in my first two years working full time. I’m happy and angry at the same time.
re: Walmart
51% of their in sales in Grocery. I doubt Amazon is going to beat them in that space, especially when Walmart has a point of presence everywhere except NYC and will let you order online and pickup in store with no credit card etc. Amazon has been testing grocery for over 5 years now, and haven’t done much in Grocery outside of Seattle. They most likely cannot make it work with their typical sub-2 percent profits with perishables.
AHH I remember those days. However, Leona Hemsley recommended me her CPA so I no longer have to pay taxes.
Ragnar says:
April 15, 2013 at 12:05 pm
Today I mailed in estimated taxes for the first quarter only. The sum was more than the total income I earned in my first two years working full time. I’m happy and angry at the same time.
Chinese manufacturing is highly overrepresented in the imaginations of most Americans. Most manufactured goods bought in the US are made in the US. I forget my source, but I think less than 20% comes from China. And it’s mostly low margin stuff – toys and shoes and cheap furniture. Even Walmart mostly sells US-manufactured stuff. People forget how much chips and coke and ice cream they consume – hey that’s manufactured. Chinese haven’t really cracked auto manufacturing for export, except to third-world countries. Not that strong yet in the highly engineered capital goods segment either, where they compete there is on the low end.
The way to make the US an even better manufacturing powerhouse would be to reduce taxes and regulations while easing immigration restrictions. That would win a lot of manufacturing jobs.
re: Bernanke
Bernanke is in the final year of his second term as chairman. They may bring in Summers or Yellen. Summers has a thicker skin for criticism and will do what is needed to spur the inflation that is desired namely $100 Trillion in new credit by the end of this decade, a doubling of the world wide credit supply.
Also chairman’s salary is about $200,000 + stipends so I gather so Bernake may be a bit underwater on his homes in NJ and DC, kids college loans etc and will need to shore up his finances and get his payday on the speaker circuit etc.
All conjecture of-course there will be allot more coming as we get closer to the end of this year unless Obama comes out early in support of a third term.
The U.S. Content of “Made in China”
By Galina Hale and Bart Hobijn
Goods and services from China accounted for only 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption expenditures in 2010, of which less than half reflected the actual costs of Chinese imports. The rest went to U.S. businesses and workers transporting, selling, and marketing goods carrying the “Made in China” label. Although the fraction is higher when the imported content of goods made in the United States is considered, Chinese imports still make up only a small share of total U.S. consumer spending. This suggests that Chinese inflation will have little direct effect on U.S. consumer prices.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-25.html
My estimated taxes were less than my two week paycheck. Today! What am I doing wrong? Besides shopping for produce?
Learn how to fix robots and manufacturing equipment if you want a job.
3 Misconceptions That Need to Die
By Morgan Housel |
October 25, 2011
Even when looking at physical goods alone, Chinese imports still account for just a small fraction of U.S. spending. Just 6.4% of nondurable goods — things like food, clothing and toys — purchased in the U.S. are made in China; 76.2% are made in America. For durable goods — things like cars and furniture — 12% are made in China; 66.6% are made in America.
Another way to grasp the value of Chinese-made goods is to look at imports. The U.S. is on track to import $340 billion worth of goods from China this year, which is 2.3% of our $14.5 trillion economy. Is that a lot? Yes. Is it most of what we spend our money on? Not by a long shot.
Part of the misconception is likely driven by the notion that America’s manufacturing base has been in steep decline. The truth, surprising to many, is that real manufacturing output today is near an all-time high. What’s dropped precipitously in recent decades is manufacturing employment. Technology and automation has allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewer workers than in the past. One good example: In 1950, a U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) plant in Gary, Ind., produced 6 million tons of steel with 30,000 workers. Today, it produces 7.5 million tons with 5,000 workers. Output has gone up; employment has dropped like a rock.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/10/25/3-misconceptions-that-need-to-die.aspx
A bunch of the outdoor plastic toys my kids play with were made by this company:
http://www.americanplastictoys.com/products.htm
They are dirt cheap and who cares if they break them. Probably all made by machines in the USA.
http://www.walmart.com/ip/16474788?wmlspartner=wlpa&adid=22222222227000791028&wl0=&wl1=g&wl2=&wl3=13693117630&wl4=&wl5=pla&veh=sem
A couple who each earned the average wage during their careers and retired in 1990 would have paid $316,000 in Social Security taxes, but collected $436,000 in benefits, according to data crunched by Eugene Steuerle, an economist at the Urban Institute.
Had that couple turned 65 in 2010, however, they would have paid $600,000 in taxes, but could expect to collect just $579,000. This is the first time in the program’s history that taxes outweighed benefits for this group, a couple with average earnings.
The imbalance will get more pronounced for future generations of retirees. Couples now in their early 40s will have forked over $808,000 in Social Security taxes by the time they retire, but get back only $703,000 in benefits.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/14/news/economy/social-security-benefits/index.html?iid=Lead
Oh, you mean there are no free lunches? Can’t be
This gave me a chuckle today. We used to rent this very house back in 1998, on the Cambridge/Somerville line. All the houses on one side are in Cambridge, all the houses on the other side are in Somerville. This 1100 square foot single family house is on the Somerville side of Line Street:
“Adorable free standing 1+ bedroom single family on the Camb line between Kirkland Village and Inman Sq. Walk to Harvard Sq. This incredibly charming home is a superb condo alternative. Featuring hardwood floors throughout. First floor includes open kitchen, dining room, living room and full bathroom. 2nd floor includes cathedral beamed ceilings,master bedroom with fantastic wall of closets, spacious den that can be used as a walk thru 2nd Br, full ba, rear deck. yard, tandem pkg. ”
05/10/2007 Sold $435,000
07/20/2012 Sold $500,000
The madness is back. We used to rent this house for $1200/month in ’98. It’s cute, but it is 550 sf downstairs, 550 sf upstairs with a dirt floor basement below.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/78-Line-St-Somerville-MA-02143/56332240_zpid/
Reason high earners in their retirement hate SS
“If you file jointly and your combined income is $32,000 to $44,000, up to 50% of your Social Security may be taxable. With combined income over $44,000, up to 85% of Social Security could be taxable.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-security-and-your-income-tax-2013-04-04?pagenumber=2
Had that couple turned 65 in 2010, however, they would have paid $600,000 in taxes, but could expect to collect just $579,000. This is the first time in the program’s history that taxes outweighed benefits for this group, a couple with average earnings.
The imbalance will get more pronounced for future generations of retirees. Couples now in their early 40s will have forked over $808,000 in Social Security taxes by the time they retire, but get back only $703,000 in benefits.
04/28/1994 Sold $44,000 — $39 Public Record
re 59, that one bed room house sold for 44k 20 years ago
Deck/Patio furniture.
Anyone know a place to get this stuff at a reasonable price. Aluminum is fine.
62 – Craigslist
Buying patio furniture in-season? You’ll find few big discounts in-season, and I realize waiting until September isn’t going to help you.
Aluminum, what is this the 1970s? How about a nice teak set?
Probably a lot of good stuff at the bottom of Barnegat bay.
if homes rise 0.2 percent a year, on average doesnt that tell us how much homes will appreciate in ten years. .
All of a sudden it’s unreasonable to have to pay taxes for at least the 2nd time on your own money?
yome says:
April 15, 2013 at 1:04 pm
Reason high earners in their retirement hate SS
“If you file jointly and your combined income is $32,000 to $44,000, up to 50% of your Social Security may be taxable. With combined income over $44,000, up to 85% of Social Security could be taxable.”
I know the timing sucks. I was really close to purchasing a set last September, but wasn’t certain I would build the deck. Now it’s built and I can’t believe retail.
I have a retractable awning (manual of course), so maybe for this year I’ll just go with the Walmart portable table and resin chairs and will save the thousand and will wait for fall to purchase the good set.
Teak is nice, but I question the long term durability of it and the annual maintenance. Powdered aluminum will last longer, is lighter and requires little more than a spray waxing each season. Much easier to move the aluminum stuff into the garage during the cold months too. I love the look and durability of the cast iron, but it too needs to be hand waxed every year to avoid rust and it’s simply too heavy. Welds break on them too.
Has anyone here purchased any of that newer recycled plastic table or chairs. I think it’s called Plastique or something like that. It looks like wood (sort of).
“6.4% of nondurable goods — things like food, clothing and toys — purchased in the U.S. are made in China”
This percentage does not reflect reality to anyone walking down the aisles of stores in the US; when doing so, one quickly gets the sense “everything” is made in China.
“One good example: In 1950, a U.S. Steel plant in Gary, Ind., produced 6 million tons of steel with 30,000 workers. Today, it produces 7.5 million tons with 5,000 workers.”
The US population has doubled since 1950. The US also imported 30 tons of steel in 2012.
Less middle class US jobs, more imports. What was the argument again?
Teak patio furniture will last a handful of years at best, despite the claims of those selling the stuff. Aluminum furniture covered with powder-coat epoxy paint will last 50 years.
Try here, look for sales: http://www.fortunoffbys.com
Brian nice suggest Lib get diving equipment ; ) i’ll second craigslist.
Lib could also go el cheapo and try to get a few years out of it then take advantage of the endof season sales.
Thanks Statler. I agree, the powder-coat.
Rags: I know you queried the board several days ago about targets for expending your current year excess compensation. After thinking a bit about it and seeing your post today (not the content, just your handle)…..I advise to bank the fcuking money…the reason? Way too often in the last 5-6 years, I see someone who finally feels flush after a long period of the nose to the grindstone, and some SOB with the ability to do so cuts their legs out from under them. I know where you work, and it is an elite shop, but I assume you have young kids. Honestly, I am so jaded at this point. You are in the 40-45 area? Until you go 55 plus and bank that money for 10 years…..these bastards will come out of the woodwork to shoot you down. The only sane answer to is run your own business. I don’t care how great your management is……it could be as simple as they sell out the shop to a large fish who guts the staff…or merely the pressure in the secular decline of asset management…..again, I know where you are…..I am just giving the benefit of my wide breadth of case loads and people who are exactly in your shoes + 10 years. It is assenine really….always have a Plan B in your back pocket.
Ragnar says:
April 15, 2013 at 12:05 pm
Today I mailed in estimated taxes for the first quarter only. The sum was more than the total income I earned in my first two years working full time. I’m happy and angry at the same time.
Financial Planning 101:
If you feel compelled to shop at Costco and them carfully scrutinize your receipt, by definition you fail you IQ test when you are seen driving said wheels…..
http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/model/class-GL/model-GL63
to be stupid, middle aged and Italian-American in NJ……
you = your …. doh :(
Yep, if the market falls 70%, suddenly my income and investment assets fall together.
That whole question was really a joke, and a frustration at how savings and personal responsibility is punished, and bad behavior rewarded.
Lib,
Produce at asian markets is generally better quality, more interesting, and lower price.
Pain…that’s the plan.
I’ll probably get this one from Sears and the real one in the Fall. Will sell this one on Craigslist at the end of the Summer or next Spring for $300.
http://www.sears.com/ty-pennington-style-kesey-7-piece-dining-set/p-07125780000P
So basically you are saying be the SOB who cuts the legs off.
chicagofinance says:
April 15, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Rags: I know you queried the board several days ago about targets for expending your current year excess compensation. After thinking a bit about it and seeing your post today (not the content, just your handle)…..I advise to bank the fcuking money…the reason? Way too often in the last 5-6 years, I see someone who finally feels flush after a long period of the nose to the grindstone, and some SOB with the ability to do so cuts their legs out from under them. I know where you work, and it is an elite shop, but I assume you have young kids. Honestly, I am so jaded at this point. You are in the 40-45 area? Until you go 55 plus and bank that money for 10 years…..these bastards will come out of the woodwork to shoot you down. The only sane answer to is run your own business. I don’t care how great your management is……it could be as simple as they sell out the shop to a large fish who guts the staff…or merely the pressure in the secular decline of asset management…..again, I know where you are…..I am just giving the benefit of my wide breadth of case loads and people who are exactly in your shoes + 10 years. It is assenine really….always have a Plan B in your back pocket.
Why are you guys buying Patio sets I cant think of a bigger waste of money. It is something women trick men into buying first few years of marriage.
I already got my lead on my Patio Set for my new beach place. Realtor told me she sees rich folk all the time putting good sets to curb on furniture pick up day near my place. Next time she sees a good one out as she drives around she is going to text me, I am going to shoot over there with my truck. If too big for me to move her husband is going to come help me.
That is how it is done men. As an old boss said to me once only rich folk can afford to buy new stuff. He made twelve million a year, but he liked to refer to rich folk alot. My wife used to say isnt a 500K bi-weekly paycheck rich. I would say from his Kohls clothes and minivan I would say no
Shouldn’t you be hedged? 2008-2010 and 2000-2003 were my best trading years. I love the smell of fear in the morning.
Ragnar says:
April 15, 2013 at 2:40 pm
Yep, if the market falls 70%, suddenly my income and investment assets fall together.
Hey I suggested Barnegat bay. Ah who am I kidding, most people near me have plastic furniture in their dining room.
Probably made in China too.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Two explosions rocked the finish line of the Boston Marathon a few hours after the winners completed the world-famous competition, according to media reports. The Associated Press reported that the explosions resulted in injuries, and injured spectators were taken to a medical tent set up for runners.A
Meh woudln’t be surprised if it is some idiot with an IED, if it was i’m shocked it took this long. maybe it was a chubby dude with a thing against distance runners.
Pics on twitter from Boston Marathon shows pretty powerful explosion.
Lots of blood, don’t open the pics if you are squeamish.
twitpic.com/cjme70
twitpic.com/cjme6m
NYPD is on heightened alert and stepping up patrols in NYC as a precautionary measure. Anticipate a larger police presence on your commute home.
On phone with Dad who was at Fenway. Said another device found. Now news says two found. Ironically bomb squad was at Fenway today. Dads wife was at finish line and left 30 mi
Dad said he saw middle eastern looking kids, probably students, talking about bond going off and laughing.
Android awful will update l8r
[88] redux,
Bond s/b bomb.
Dads wife left area 30 min prior.
CNN confirming what he, a retired cop, told me about 3rd device. He said police water bombed it. Cnn hasnt confirmed that yet.
Area on lockdown beforehand. He had to use his badge just to be able to drive out of area.
Actually, federal tax was not applied on ss payroll tax during contribution.Contribution is before tax
joyce says:
April 15, 2013 at 1:49 pm
All of a sudden it’s unreasonable to have to pay taxes for at least the 2nd time on your own money?
“Sources” suggesting homegrown terrorists based on explosive used. I expected this. My guess is that they were keying on 4/15 or the fact that this is Patriots Day in Mass. But degree of sophistication suggests very concerted or capable effort.
Nom, it is a truly F’d up situation. Unfortunately it will be used to further erode our civil liberties.
» Authorities ID suspect as Saudi national in marathon bombings, under guard at Boston hospital
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/two_explosions_at_boston_marathon_iMR0LCkcwASg0RQfVsH1yI
A twitter poster said he was in the area where the explosions occurred last night and that the viewing area where the bombs went off was locked down very tight, perhaps the bomber(s) walked through the crowd with explosive backpacks?
I wonder if this terrorist act was originally planned for NY Marathon. Amazingly, WBZ is still carrying a live feed from the finish line:
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013-boston-marathon-finish-line/#at_pco=cfd-1.0
My daughters were selling lemonade in front of our place today to Marathon watchers. My wife told them if the police come over and ask for their permit, make sure to offer them a free cup. Luckily we live at mile 22.
Is the nypost site down?
Other news sites saying the posts story is false.
Juice Box says:
April 15, 2013 at 5:00 pm
» Authorities ID suspect as Saudi national in marathon bombings, under guard at Boston hospital
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/two_explosions_at_boston_marathon_iMR0LCkcwASg0RQfVsH1yI
If they have a suspect they prolly have him in a “private” waterboarding session.
Ragnar [49];
happy and angry
http://taxfoundation.org/blog/west-wing-wisdom-paying-fair-share-taxes
Brian – they have a Saudi in custody. Doesn’t mean much more than that at this point.
However most retailers shut down their stores all over Boston area and sent everyone home. City is locked down pretty tight.
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/04/15/several-hurt-in-explosions-at-boston-marathon-finish-line/
Boston is a pretty rough place for a minority group to pull this shite…..I feel bad for anyone who is Middle Eastern looking in the city…….I assume all the Sephardic Jews are going to make sure to wear their kippahs for the next few weeks. The Sikhs are in trouble too….
UPDATE: Boston police have stated that no suspect is in custody. The Post’s source appears to be inaccurate.
http://www.policymic.com/mobile/articles/35347/boston-marathon-suspect-id-saudi-national-being-guarded-at-boston-hospital
Counterterrorism officials found what they believe to be five additional, undetonated explosive devices around the Boston area, according to two people briefed on the rapidly moving investigation.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578424950102614148.html
Story not over yet of “foreigner”
Law enforcement is investigating a foreign national in connection with Monday’s powerful twin bombings at the Boston Marathon, POLITICO has learned.
The foreigner, who was badly burned, was in the United States on a student visa and is considered a person of interest and possible suspect in the case but has not been formally charged or arrested.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/white-house-dc-nyc-boost-security-boston-90085.html#ixzz2QaFmAhOJ
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/white-house-dc-nyc-boost-security-boston-90085.html?hp=t1
These instances of suspects in custody within a few hundred minutes are sometimes tough to digest. Am I wrong for feelin’ just a bit uneasy in general?
(106)
Not at all.
brian [54, etc]
Probably everyone went to bed… but the logic re. unimportance of China’s goods trade is quite tortured. U.S. imports 400B worth of goods from China (that is at a wholesale level) which would translate into something like 800B retail. Total goods sales in the U.S. are 3.6T, and ex-food and fuel about 2.5T. If you subtract cars (400B or so), we are talking close to 40% (800B out of 2.1T) of the end sales for China merchandise. Maybe I overshot a bit (we are importing some foodstuffs from China that are part of the 400B goods imports, but not a lot yet; and maybe my assumption of 100% wholesale+retail margin is too high), but not by much…
Time and CNN beating the drum for domestic right wing terror because of date. Ex pet that today isn’t actual Patriots Day. And some fcuk congressman from mass talked about how Patriots Day was to celebrate the start of the revplution in 1776. Putz. It was 1775.