Increasing expectations for continued growth in home prices

From the WSJ:

Fannie: Over 50% of Americans Expect Home Prices to Climb, First Time in Survey’s History

More than half of Americans now expect the country’s home prices to climb within the next year, illustrating a growing optimism toward the health of the housing industry, according to new data by mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae (FNMA).

“For the first time in the survey’s three-year history, the majority of Americans surveyed now expect home prices to increase,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Crossing the 50% threshold marks a significant milestone as most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly occurring throughout the country.”

The share of respondents polled in Fannie’s April housing survey who expect home prices to go up rose three percentage points in April to 51%. At the same time last year, only 32% expected an increase in home prices.

The share of respondents who say now is a good time to sell climbed four percentage points in April to 30% compared with 15% at the same time last year.

According to the survey’s results, the average 12-month home-price-change expectation held steady at 2.7%. The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up fell three percentage points to 43%, while those who say they will go down increased slightly to 7%.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

91 Responses to Increasing expectations for continued growth in home prices

  1. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Here’s What Is Really Behind Home Price Gains

    The numbers just keep going up. Home prices are defying gravity and expectations, which has some asking exactly how real they are and what is driving them. The answers lie, again, in the numbers, which vary depending on what particular report you choose.

    Home prices nationally, including sales of distressed properties, rose 10.5 percent in March from a year ago, according to a new report from CoreLogic.

    That report is based on repeat sales of homes over time. Another widely-watched report, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows home prices were up 9.3 percent in February in the top twenty markets.

    “Market observers shouldn’t be fooled by the large headline numbers,” warned Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, a data provider. “Last year was a turning point for the market where the year started with prices at virtually their lowest point and saw a very strong correction through the year. Much of the gains we see right now in the yearly trends are a reflection of the market lows in 2012, rather than a function of recent short-term momentum.”

    Villacorta expects these big gains to subside as the market stabilizes and more supply comes up for sale. He sees the recovery of housing itself, not some broader economic resurgence, as housing’s main driver.

    “Moderate improvements in the broader economic landscape likely haven’t offered potential homebuyers strong reason to jump back in at the start of the season. We do expect to see more buyers and sellers ready to take action over the next several months as rising prices continue to free up some underwater mortgages,” he offered.

    “If house prices and incomes continued rising at their current rate, the house price-to-income ratio wouldn’t return to its long-run average until 2017,” said Paul Diggle, a property economist at Capital Economics.

    What is really driving home prices is a return of consumer confidence. Twice as many Americans now think it’s a good time to sell, according to a new Fannie Mae survey, largely because the majority believe prices will continue to rise.

    Again, the recovery is feeding on itself. A lack of supply, coupled with new demand, is creating more competition and consequently higher offers. As that confidence grows, so too will supply, which of course would then ease the price gains as some have suggested.

    “As inventory continues to decline, motivated buyers are turning their attention toward traditional listings,” said Eric Locher president of the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association. “Sellers are responding and showing more confidence as new listings were up a welcomed 12 percent in April. We believe this activity will continue. These are the signs of a healthy market.”

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Zillow survey: 5% home value growth expected in 2013

    With more than 100 forecasters predicting Zillow’s Home Value Index could end the year up an average of 5.4% from last year, fears of a market bubble resurfaced.

    According to the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, the median U.S. home value is expected to rise to $165,280, on average by the end of 2013.

    At the end of 2012, the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index stood at $156,800.

    In the latest survey, conducted in late February, respondents reported they expected average home value growth of just 4.6% in 2013. In 2014, respondents predicted average home value appreciation of 4.4%, up from prior expectations of 4.2%.

    While panelists were more skeptical on near-term value appreciation this year and into 2014, their expectations for nationwide home value growth in 2015, 2016 and 2017 were slightly more pessimistic than in prior surveys.

    Panelists said on average they expect annual home value growth between 3.5% and 3.7% from 2015 through 2017. This is a modest drop from previously expressed expectations in the 3.6% to 3.8% range.

    Cumulatively, respondents anticipate home values to rise 22.3% through 2017, on average.

    “The panel’s expectations of near-term home value appreciation remaining above historic norms are consistent with a market struggling to satisfy strong demand from buyers attracted by rock-bottom interest rates and improving economic conditions,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.

    Humphries added, “But looking further out, that appreciation will have to moderate as interest rates rise, or else homes that seem affordable today – despite rapidly rising values – are going to look very expensive relative to people’s incomes as it gets more costly to finance a home. How the Federal Reserve handles the eventual winding down of its policy of quantitative easing will be critical in determining if the current period of rapid appreciation is a benign bounce off the bottom, or a more dangerous bubble being re-inflated.”

    The more optimistic quartile of panelists predicted, on average, a 6.6% rise in home values in 2013. However, the pessimistic bunch expects an average increase of only 4.2%.

  3. Juice Box says:

    Principal writedowns for fannie and feddie will require loss for somebody holding those bonds, the FED does not hold them all. So who takes the hit grandma’s pension or perhaps the Russian or Chinese investors? Surley not the TBTF, we can’t let that happen.

  4. Juice Box says:

    Flash fllod warning on my phone. Perhaps I will just stay home.

  5. grim says:

    4 – Principal write downs will likely be managed through refinancing into new GSE held debt. In this case, the GSEs will outlay the cash to current bondholders. Risk faced by current bondholders will simply be prepayment risk, and given the recent refinancing spree, this should not be anything unexpected.

    Any new model that will include payback provisions, for example, shared appreciation, or perhaps penalties associated with a sale in some fixed number of years, will require a new loan anyway.

    The Cyprus model you mention would never be agreed upon, and would likely be impossible to implement and manage, short of handing out checks to underwater owners and asking them to pay down their mortgage.

  6. Brian says:

    Hertz moving HQ from New Jersey to Florida

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/05/07/hertz-headquarters-relocate-lee-county/2140561/

    “It was a quality-of-life issue, he said: Getting talented Dollar Thrifty workers to relocate to New Jersey would have been a tough pitch. As many as 120 Tulsa employees may move here, and possibly some from European operations in locations such as Dublin, Ireland.”

    So he is saying that people who now live in Tulsa, Oklahoma would have a reduced quality of life if they moved to NJ? Freedom loving people moving from the heartland to an overcrowded, overregulated, overpriced, overtaxed nanny state with brutal weather….

  7. grim says:

    From HuffPo:

    Late-payment rate on mortgages tumbled in 1Q

    A resurgent housing market, rising home values and steady job gains are helping more U.S. homeowners stay on top of their mortgage payments.

    The percentage of mortgage holders at least two months behind on their payments fell by 21 percent in the first three months of this year versus the same period in 2012, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Wednesday.

    The sharp annual decline in the mortgage delinquency rate represents the biggest quarterly drop on record for TransUnion, whose data go back to 1992.

    “We certainly expected improvement this quarter, as the housing sector is in recovery, but the magnitude of the improvement was unexpected,” Tim Martin, TransUnion’s group vice president of U.S. housing, said in a statement.

    All told, the mortgage delinquency rate was 4.56 percent in the first quarter. That’s down from 5.78 percent in the prior-year quarter, TransUnion said.

    The first-quarter rate also fell 12 percent compared with the last three months of 2012, when it was 5.19 percent, a four-year low.

    Even so, the mortgage delinquency rate is still above the 1 percent to 2 percent average historical range, an indication that many homeowners still are struggling to make their payments.

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    Twice as many Americans now think it’s a good time to sell…

    When you’re underwater, you can’t sell.

  9. It’s a good time to stockpile .223.

  10. JJ says:

    Underwater on a single asset class. Most people I encounter are not really underwater. For instance the condo I bought guy was like I dont want to lose money, I had to beat him down a bit. Finally as we are doing title search I find guy bought it cash. He ment being underwater as the price he paid + Plus improvements – real estate commission is what he wanted as to now “lose money”

    When I bought my place Chase wanted 20% down. Every year further we get from the bubble years as loans are paid down it is hard to imagine any underwater people left by 2020 from the Spring 2003- Spring 2008 bubble era

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 8, 2013 at 8:21 am

    Twice as many Americans now think it’s a good time to sell…

    When you’re underwater, you can’t sell.

  11. DL says:

    Re 7: And they can’t bring their guns.

  12. Juice Box says:

    Re: 7 – There is no marina in Park Ridge.

  13. DL says:

    “More than half of Americans now expect the country’s home prices to climb within the next year.”

    And that’s the half that refuses to put their house on the market.

  14. JJ says:

    But they dont say if it is “inflation adjusted” or not

    DL says:
    May 8, 2013 at 8:43 am

    “More than half of Americans now expect the country’s home prices to climb within the next year.”

    And that’s the half that refuses to put their house on the market.

  15. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    The funny thing is if they moved to south jersey the quality of life would have been similar. not every job needs to be in spitting distance of NYC. the thing is if your going to move why not move to a no income tax state with better winters. Plus they can pay a good deal less to new employees.

  16. JJ says:

    If you are single, fresh out of school you are insane not to take a job in Manhattan if your parents live commuting distance to city.
    Jobs in Manhattan pay a lot more as housing costs are huge, but you live at home so you have no housing costs so you make out.
    Then you get 26 sick of mom and Dad get a room mate or two and move into an existing rent stablized unit and once again clean up as you are getting paid for high housing costs meanwhile you are only paying 1/3 of the rent of a below market unit.

    Then you get to 33 and get married you have been in city for 12 years, have a career, high paying job and new wife to be who wants you to buy a place of your own in the city or close to City the free ride ends. You think maybe I will get a job out in burbs or out of state so I can buy a cheaper home. Then you realize you have to take a 100K pay cut so you can save 36K a year in housing costs. So you are stuck.

    Painhrtz – Doc Daneeka says:
    May 8, 2013 at 8:55 am

    The funny thing is if they moved to south jersey the quality of life would have been similar. not every job needs to be in spitting distance of NYC. the thing is if your going to move why not move to a no income tax state with better winters. Plus they can pay a good deal less to new employees.

  17. JJ says:

    Hertz is like a girl marrying the guy who was cheating on his wife and then gets surprised when he cheats on her.

    Hertz had its headquarters in Garden City Long Island for many many years. Then Park Ridge NJ stole the company away by offering tax breaks and all types of deals. Guess what Hertz is moving again. Jersey stole Hertz from LI so big deal if they lose what they stole

    Brian says:
    May 8, 2013 at 9:00 am

    Lt Gov: NJ had no chance to keep Hertz in Park Ridge

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/206502551_LT_Gov__NJ_had_no_chance_to_keep_Hertz.html

  18. Any questions?

    “Key among them, said Broome, was the fact that New Jersey was too expensive for the Tulsa employees, who would find Florida more affordable.”

  19. NJ slowly transforming into Argentina. A barbell, featuring the ultra-rich on one end, and the abject poor on the other.

    Can’t wait until some of the rich have private militias and broken glass-encrusted walls around their properties.

  20. DL says:

    You’re giving too much credit to the average seller’s economic IQ.

    JJ says:
    May 8, 2013 at 8:54 am
    But they dont say if it is “inflation adjusted” or not

  21. DL says:

    Re 22: Boutique Apartheid.

  22. HouseWhineWine says:

    If you can find yourself a niche, specialized job that caters to the wealthy in N.J. you will not have a problem making a living. I speak from personal experience. But I will say I am probably more fortunate than most.

  23. Brian says:

    I imagine that the culture and politics are also vastly different. NJ is much more restrictive. Management also has to think about employee morale.

    21.Scrapple n’Ricin says:
    May 8, 2013 at 9:18 am
    Any questions?

    “Key among them, said Broome, was the fact that New Jersey was too expensive for the Tulsa employees, who would find Florida more affordable.”

  24. Brian says:

    Don’t you worry. There’s no need to hide those 529 contributions……

    Colleges Soak Poor U.S. Students While Funneling Aid to Rich
    By John Hechinger & Janet Lorin – May 8, 2013 12:01 AM ET .

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/colleges-soak-poor-u-s-students-while-funneling-aid-to-rich.html

  25. JJ says:

    We got a junk bond 4 handle, first time in history my folks!!!

    Junk-Bond Yields Fall Below 5%
    05/08/2013| 09:15am US/Eastern

    High-yield bonds may need a new name.

    Yields on the Barclays US High Yield Index reached 4.97% Tuesday night, a record low and the first time the index has dipped below 5% in its 30-year history.

  26. Anon E. Moose says:

    Brian [7];

    So he is saying that people who now live in Tulsa, Oklahoma would have a reduced quality of life if they moved to NJ? Freedom loving people moving from the heartland to an overcrowded, overregulated, overpriced, overtaxed nanny state with brutal weather….

    Whenever you hear a business talk about the problems they have finding, recruiting, keeping, etc. – a competent workforce, you must ALWAYS insert the unsaid coda: “… at the wages we are willing to pay.” This usually applies to the immigration debate, but it is equally applicable here as well. They could get the lions’ share of their Tulsa workforce to move, IF they paid them enough money to replicate their lifestyle on NJ scale. Since that’s a non-starter… off to Ft. Myers.

  27. JJ says:

    But on other hand my buddy’s large bank on Long Island runs the firm in a way that keeps labor costs down. Each Head of department is between 35 and 55 and is highly qualified. His 40 person department consists of single folk under 30 who live at home, folks over 55 kids grown just happy to land a job to ride out end of career and the occasional housewife looking for extra income whose husband is the breadwinner.

    Everyone in his department has a college degree, many have certifications and some advanced degrees.

    The bank really cant afford to hire Men between 35 and 55 with stay at home wives, mortgages and kids to support because quite frankly costs are so high on Long Island the bank does not want them and the Men in that category wont take what bank is willing to pay. Each Department can only afford a job for one man or women head of household breadwinner in that category.

    However, it makes it very hard to find a job when you are between 35 and 55 with a mortgage 3 kids and a stay at home wife. You need around 250K a year salary to make it work. And apparently the joke is you want to make all the jobs disappear on Monster, just enter your zip code, within 25 miles and jobs paying 250K or more.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    May 8, 2013 at 10:03 am

    Brian [7];

    So he is saying that people who now live in Tulsa, Oklahoma would have a reduced quality of life if they moved to NJ? Freedom loving people moving from the heartland to an overcrowded, overregulated, overpriced, overtaxed nanny state with brutal weather….

    Whenever you hear a business talk about the problems they have finding, recruiting, keeping, etc. – a competent workforce, you must ALWAYS insert the unsaid coda: “… at the wages we are willing to pay.” This usually applies to the immigration debate, but it is equally applicable here as well. They could get the lions’ share of their Tulsa workforce to move, IF they paid them enough money to replicate their lifestyle on NJ scale. Since that’s a non-starter… off to Ft. Myers.

  28. chicagofinance says:

    I had my mini-screed on Whole Foods over the weekend….here is the prima facie evidence…..

    Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) -NasdaqGS
    102.29 +9.49(+10.23%) 10:23AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price

  29. JJ says:

    chifi are you saying you owned mini options calls on whole foods and they popped like a pimple on a fry cooks face?

  30. JJ says:

    Between 2008 and 2012 high yield returned 22%, compared to 21.3% for investment grade corporate bonds and 3.4% for Treasurys

    I guess my put some junk in your trunk rants in 2008/2009 were right. I should have bought more trunks to put junk in.

    Chifi I hope you did not put any clients into treasuries, if you did dont show them this stat

  31. Comrade Nom Deplume, Channeling Scrapple Cannon says:

    [10] scrapple

    A good time to do that was a few years ago. Glad I did.

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    The U.S. central bank is currently buying $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $40 billion in Treasurys per month. Ask Tony Montana what happens when you start doing your own product.

  33. JJ says:

    The MBS is way less of a problem than the Treasuries.

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 8, 2013 at 11:00 am

    The U.S. central bank is currently buying $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $40 billion in Treasurys per month. Ask Tony Montana what happens when you start doing your own product.

  34. chicagofinance says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 8, 2013 at 11:00 am
    The U.S. central bank is currently buying $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $40 billion in Treasurys per month. Ask Tony Montana what happens when you start doing your own product.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJUt_x0gwug

  35. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    So he is saying that people who now live in Tulsa, Oklahoma would have a reduced quality of life if they moved to NJ? Freedom loving people moving from the heartland to an overcrowded, overregulated, overpriced, overtaxed nanny state with brutal weather…

    Hertz was being nice. My guess is that nobody from Tulsa would move to NJ. Why go to a ultra-liberal gun hating state when you can go to sunny and warm gun-friendly Florida.

  36. grim says:

    Nobody is going to relocate back-office into NJ, it is idiocy from a business perspective. No existing employees would take the deal without a sizable increase in pay.

    Tulsa -> Bergen County? Hertz would probably need to double salaries.

  37. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [39];

    On the flip side, I had family involved when Altria gave the middle finger to Nanny Bloomers following his last offensive in the war on smokers and decamped their HQ out of Manhattan for Richmond, VA (2008). My relative spent some time working for the company in Richmond previously, and advised most of his colleagues to take the relo package — as he did. Admin and mail room types had a tougher choice, however. They were well paid even by NYC standards; not nearly as generous relo. The company made it a wash for them financially, but they still had to pick up and move.

  38. FirstTimer says:

    Hi All,
    Would appreciate some opinions on how bad this roof looks. Am trying to negotiate repairs with the seller post inspection and the inspector said that the roof is nearing EOL, but no leaks yet.
    I am trying to get credit for 1/2 the cost of a new roof, the seller has offered $1500.

    http://imgur.com/MFto6jQ

  39. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    NJ slowly transforming into Argentina. A barbell, featuring the ultra-rich on one end, and the abject poor on the other.

    Scapple: I have seen that in Lima Peru. The nice neighborhoods have police officers at every bank with SWAT officers guarding the most expensive streets. The rest of the city, especially in the hills are shanty towns. I cannot wait for this to occur in Montklair.

  40. Ragnar says:

    The only reason to relocate from most states to NJ is if you want most of your people to leave voluntarily. Offer them the same pay and they will soon learn that they got a big effective pay cut. If they do arrive and are good, they will probably find a company willing to pay them more than the Tulsa salary.

  41. Juice Box says:

    Hertz move still does not add up. I don’t know how many of you folks have been to Estero, Fla but it is a retirement community surrounded by golf courses with a median age of 62. Most of that part of southwest Florida is old gheezers. Perhaps our resident Florida expert can chime in as to why the CEO picked that location other than his early retirement.

    Then there is this, perhaps the squid is pumping for the dump?

    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/06/hertzs-private-equity-backers-selling-rest-of-stake-in-1-24-billion-deal/?mod=yahoo_hs

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    I’d rather be dead on the corner of 145th Street and Amsterdam Avenue than alive anywhere in Florida.

  43. Libtard in the City says:

    My sister moved from Northern Jersey to Cincinnati to pursue an excellent career with Standard Textile. She managed to maintain her high J&J salary. A few years ago Standard Textile laid her off in a downsizing. It took her forever to find another job and at quite a lower salary. Her house is twice the size of mine and her mortgage payment is 1/4th. No one is moving back office to NJ.

  44. relo says:

    44: Juice,

    South of Tampa, it’s all old gheezers. If you are asking relative to the rest of FL, I can’t really speak to it. Lee County (Estero) relative to Collier (Naples) will have the, ahem, workforce.

    Gary, if you’re dead why does the location matter?

  45. JJ says:

    No husband or kids?

    Libtard in the City says:
    May 8, 2013 at 2:14 pm

    My sister moved from Northern Jersey to Cincinnati to pursue an excellent career with Standard Textile. She managed to maintain her high J&J salary. A few years ago Standard Textile laid her off in a downsizing. It took her forever to find another job and at quite a lower salary. Her house is twice the size of mine and her mortgage payment is 1/4th. No one is moving back office to NJ

  46. Phoenix says:

    Does anybody on here enjoy the negotiations of a home sale? Also, if a house has mold listed but has been “resolved”, would not knowing who did the repair/remediation be a dealbreaker?

  47. Phoenix says:

    38 All hype
    The salary from Tulsa, OK in NJ would insure a reduced quality of life in NJ, perhaps no life at all.

  48. Libtard in the City says:

    JJ,

    Now on 2nd husband. One kid of her own and acquired one from 2nd husband. Funny thing, second husband has same last name as my stepfather. Crazy!

  49. Libtard in the City says:

    ChiFi,

    Whole foods has a $10 off of $75 if you use your Amex Blue card. We have a couple of $10 off of $75 coupons at home too. At $75 for $55 plus 5% cash back, we can almost shop there.

  50. Brian says:

    when was it installed?

    41.FirstTimer says:
    May 8, 2013 at 1:22 pm
    Hi All,
    Would appreciate some opinions on how bad this roof looks. Am trying to negotiate repairs with the seller post inspection and the inspector said that the roof is nearing EOL, but no leaks yet.
    I am trying to get credit for 1/2 the cost of a new roof, the seller has offered $1500.

    http://imgur.com/MFto6jQ

  51. JJ says:

    Bigger issue is it one layer or two layers. If only one layer $1,500 is not shabby.

    If two layers, you got to strip whole thing, which leads to new gutters and maybe some issues with wood underneath $1,500 is shabby

  52. relo says:

    Maybe the CEO got used to not mingling with the hoi polloi while resideing in Saddle River. In Naples, he doesn’t want to bump into the mailroom guy at Publix.

    Sean, if you want to be neighbors, here’s an idea of what it will set you back.

    http://www.naplesarea.com/home-search-results.asp?rsid=1376

  53. JJ says:

    http://imgur.com/gallery/VmvmAH9

    is this your inspector telling you about roof

  54. FirstTimer says:

    Brian (53) –

    The seller disclosed it was installed 12 years ago, the inspector estimates it to be 15 – 19 years old. My attorney says that I cannot get out of the contract unless there is damage to the roof or it is leaking.

  55. JJ says:

    How big is roof, just looks like a flat roof to me. Is it the entire roof or just a section of it.

    FirstTimer says:
    May 8, 2013 at 2:56 pm

    Brian (53) –

    The seller disclosed it was installed 12 years ago, the inspector estimates it to be 15 – 19 years old. My attorney says that I cannot get out of the contract unless there is damage to the roof or it is leaking.

  56. Libtard in the City says:

    First Timer: You did NOT use the Uberinspektor. Now you pay dearly for your indiscretion.

  57. FirstTimer says:

    JJ (58),

    This is a ranch with a gable style roof. The house itself is 2000 sf . Unfortunately, it has 2 layers. Can I even ask for a credit towards a new roof if it is not leaking? I am basing my argument on the discrepancy between the disclosed age and the inspector’s opinion and the signs of wear.

  58. FirstTimer says:

    Libtard (59),

    Actually, I did :) . Been a long time lurker here. Here are his comments,

    The roof surface is older and in advance stages of wear, (granular loss, widened keyways) and prone to leakage. It is nearing the end of its designed life expectancy. Future replacement should be budgeted and anticipated.

    Several courses of damaged roof shingles at lower rear valley area. A qualified roofing contractor should replace all damaged shingles.

  59. Libtard in the City says:

    I would take the 1,500 and actually patch replace the damaged shingles to avoid leakage. It looks funny, but it should get you another 5 years or so before you have to replace the whole roof.

  60. JJ says:

    Also the stars must align to get a leak with two roofs.

    I have a second roof where stuff blew off in Irene and Sandy. I had roof guy take a look at it and said you are good dont even patch it and charged me nothing.

    Why because roof underneath it has no holes. I need a new roof in around 2-3 years and at that point I will scrap up whole thing. But unless you get a double hole (which at platos retreat would be a plus) I would not worry. Or just patch the dam thing. If it is a ranch just climb up there with a few cold buds some patching stuff and fix it

  61. grim says:

    Do you have a picture of the roof?

    The photo you show appears to be damage associated with something rubbing on the roof, branch or something possibly, was this near where a tree is or was?

    That really doesn’t look like typical wear.

    If that’s the only issue, you can repair that for considerably less than $1500.

  62. FirstTimer says:

    Thanks for all the responses and advice, fellas. Much appreciated.

    Grim(64),
    Here are the 2 pictures that the inspector included in the report.
    http://imgur.com/Yc2sCOF

    Any recommendations on a roofing contractor?

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume, Channeling Scrapple Cannon says:

    [7] brian,

    That’s just the public face on the relo issue. Other considerations were taxation in real terms, wages, cost of benefits in NJ versus FL (there is a difference), cost to expand/improve Park Ridge, and the very real possibility that Christie won’t always be around to keep the (democratic) wolves from the door in the future.

    Then there’s the CEO who doesn’t want to be tagged with NJ (and periodically NYC) taxation. That’s real money at his level.

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume, Channeling Scrapple Cannon says:

    I don’t know where you are but don’t use Powell in the brig. They proposed a rate for a small job that seemed fishy, so I bid it out. Competitor did the work for about half.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, Channeling Scrapple Cannon says:

    [65]firstimer

    [67] was for you.

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume, Channeling Scrapple Cannon says:

    [63] JJ

    ” But unless you get a double hole (which at platos retreat would be a plus) I would not worry.”

    Only JJ could get sex and roofing into the same thread.

  67. Libtard in the City says:

    Roof actually looks OK from my perch. A few nails and you are good to go. Hardly any stains either.

  68. grim says:

    Here’s the thing with really good inspectors.. They will find a dozen problems with every house.

    However, if you think you’ll find a house with no problems, you are going to be spending alot of money on inspectors and lawyers before your wallet starts to realize this.

    There is another inspector I use, who I’ll call ‘the ringer’. Why? Because he will provide an inspection that paints the property in the worst possible light. If the buyer didn’t expect this going in, he’s surely run away screaming when he got through the first page. It’s not that he’s lying or making things up, it’s that he’s pointing out every single thing, no matter how minor.

    Every house has issues, if the inspector didn’t find ’em, he didn’t do a good job. The question is whether or not you can live with the specific set of issues found, or if you’ll try again somewhere else.

  69. grim says:

    Oh, and new houses have issues too, they just haven’t had enough time to happen yet…

  70. Fast Eddie says:

    relo [47],

    Being dead in New York City is more alive than the majority of many places! ;)

  71. In the end, we’re all dead.

    The dead in my area seem to remain upright and moving.

  72. Young Buck says:

    Care to share The Ringer’s info?

  73. grim says:

    Montclair out of control again? This is f$cking NUTS.

    *All* Closed Sales 5/1 – 5/8
    50 Pine – Ask $295k – Sold $300k – 8 Days on Market
    163 Claremont – Ask $299k – Sold $340k – 33 Days
    51 Greenwood – Ask $369k – Sold $380k – 26 Days
    530 Valley – Ask $419k – Sold $425k – 45 Days
    106 Wildwood – Ask $579k – Sold $565k – 35 Days
    197 Montclair – Ask $689k – Sold $710k – 14 Days
    121 Summit – Ask $699k – Sold $749k – 11 Days
    220 Fernwood – Ask $715k – Sold $777k – 18 Days
    11 Mendl – Ask $729k – Sold $775k – 11 Days
    120 Christopher – Ask $749k – Sold $819k – 14 Days
    360 N Fullerton – Ask $750k – Sold $790k – 14 Days

    Only 1 property sold under asking, 10 sold over asking.

  74. grim says:

    Two weeks earlier were these gems:

    46 Lloyd Road – Ask $775k – Sold $900k ($125k over ask)
    132 Inwood – Ask $749k – Sold $850k ($101k over ask)
    9 Prospect – Ask $600k – Sold $720k ($120k over ask)

  75. Brian says:

    They did a crappy job around that vent stack.

    FirstTimer says:
    May 8, 2013 at 3:37 pm
    Thanks for all the responses and advice, fellas. Much appreciated.

    Grim(64),
    Here are the 2 pictures that the inspector included in the report.
    http://imgur.com/Yc2sCOF

    Any recommendations on a roofing contractor?

  76. Montklair is going to be a wrenching, slow-motion train wreck once it all starts going the wrong way.

  77. grim says:

    I’m looking at a split level in Summit that just closed at $1.2 million, 6 days on market.

    It needs new bathrooms.

  78. Brian says:

    I hate when people layer shingles like that. My dad made me and my brother go up on his roof and do that with him for years. We had like 3 layers. Went for decades without a new roof. I was so happy when he finally broke down and paid somebody to do it. The pros make it look easy too. I think they did the whole thing in 2 days.

  79. Essex says:

    The area around Brookdale Park in Montclair seems nice.

  80. njescapee says:

    I just read that one of the Big 4 firms is moving their IT from North Jersey to the Sun Belt and not Florida. There goes a lot of high paying jobs. drip drip drip

  81. WickedOrange says:

    Should You Invest in Stocks or Housing for the Long Term? It Depends.
    http://www.pewresearch.org/2013/05/08/should-you-invest-in-stocks-or-housing-for-the-long-term-it-depends/

  82. chicagofinance says:

    Panic for the kids-in-school set……possible top out for 2013 in June closings?

    grim says:
    May 8, 2013 at 6:22 pm
    Montclair out of control again? This is f$cking NUTS.

    *All* Closed Sales 5/1 – 5/8
    50 Pine – Ask $295k – Sold $300k – 8 Days on Market
    163 Claremont – Ask $299k – Sold $340k – 33 Days
    51 Greenwood – Ask $369k – Sold $380k – 26 Days
    530 Valley – Ask $419k – Sold $425k – 45 Days
    106 Wildwood – Ask $579k – Sold $565k – 35 Days
    197 Montclair – Ask $689k – Sold $710k – 14 Days
    121 Summit – Ask $699k – Sold $749k – 11 Days
    220 Fernwood – Ask $715k – Sold $777k – 18 Days
    11 Mendl – Ask $729k – Sold $775k – 11 Days
    120 Christopher – Ask $749k – Sold $819k – 14 Days
    360 N Fullerton – Ask $750k – Sold $790k – 14 Days

    Only 1 property sold under asking, 10 sold over asking.

  83. All this bubblicity can be traced to the actions of one little Bernank, spinning his presses, talking out of both sides of his mouth and creating a big circle jerk signifying nothing while simultaneously causing a boom in little green pieces of paper.

    When the little green pieces of paper are exposed as no better than asswipe, the gnashing of teeth will begin.

  84. There will be gnashing of teeth.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:
  86. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    So much for a slowdown after the FATCA diaspora. At 679, this is, I believe, the largest exodus ever reported in one quarter.

    https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2013/05/08/2013-10852/quarterly-publication-of-individuals-who-have-chosen-to-expatriate

  87. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    Interestingly, the report is dated April 19th. Someone wasn’t thinking–they could have released it in the noise of the marathon bombing and it might have gone unnoticed by Fox.

  88. Interesting topic! Thanks for sharing this information! You put a nice twist to it. I appreciate you sharing this with the rest of us grim.

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