From HousingWire:
Conditions are ripe for household formation
A sharply positive turn in U.S. household formation has caused a rising demand for all types of housing over the last two years, including multifamily and single-family rental and ownership, according to data from a number of analysts.
“We believe steady, if unremarkable, monthly job growth is creating a similar household formation environment for 2013 which should support our positive housing outlook,” the analysts said in a report on housing demand.
“You’re just seeing a lot more people getting reengaged,” said Sterne Agee analyst Jay McCanless. “Housing demand, whether its rental or ownership, is a positive indicator,” he added.
The research note claims conditions are ripe for household formations — children moving out of their parents’ home or a college graduate renting their first apartment. They added that job growth is the primary driver for household formation and that the steady job growth of the past three years has created a fertile backdrop for new household formation.
Additionally, they noted that household formation has rebounded since it bottomed in 2009 and 2010. In these two years, household formation dipped to the mid-to-high 300k range compared to a 65-year average of 1.2 million.
With annual household growth of 1.1 million and 2.4 million in 2011 and 2012, respectively, we believe there will be a consequential increase in the level of housing demand.
…
The analysts note that they expect this trend to shift as the cycle progress, but it has not happened quite yet.For the past three years, job growth, especially in the private sector, has been chugging along.
“That’s a very important point that tends to get lost in the shuffle — private employers have continued to hire and grow their businesses,” said McCanless.
…
Secondly, the analysts monitor the progress of monthly nonfarm private job creation. “Both indicators have been trending positively since 2010, and as a result, we believe future growth in household formations and housing demand are likely,” the report said.
@RBReich: No sign of inflation anywhere. Globe is awash in liquidity. Real problem is lack of sufficient demand as global productivity surges.
Subprime Borrowers With Best Credit Score Denied Help
By Kathleen M. Howley – Jul 16, 2013 12:00 AM ET .
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-16/subprime-borrowers-with-best-credit-score-denied-help.html
@pourmecoffee: U-S-A! U-S-A! “Americans have stockpiled almost half of the privately owned firearms in the world.” http://t.co/sBx8DvHpPn
HARP is arguably the single most successful bailout program of the 237,512 bailouts attempted. If you are pro housing bailout, you’ll probably agree that expanding HARP to the non-GSE loans (HARP 3.o) is the single biggest missed opportunity of the entire housing recovery. Why? Because there is little question it would have expanded HARP’s unquestionable positive benefits across a much broader swath of homeowners, saving mortgage payers billions of dollars, with little of the smoke and mirrors that were behind the 237,511 other attempts. While there is still benefit to be had for pushing HARP 3 forward, the fact is that the door has already started to close and the overall efficacy of the program will be lower than if they’d opened the door to allowing these refis where mortgage rates were in the 3s.
4 – I think there’s little hope at this point that HARP 3.0 for non-GSE loans will ever happen. What were the reasons, in your oppinion, that it never came to pass?
From MarketWatch:
Refinance program could expand by more than 900,000 with changes, NY Fed says
A change to a federal home refinance program could see an additional 530,000 eligible borrowers if the cutoff date was lifted, and the eligibility could grow even more if borrowers were able to use the program more than once, according to an estimate published by the New York Fed on Monday.
A blog by Joshua Abel, a former research associate at the New York Fed, and Joseph Tracy, an executive vice president at the regional bank, said the government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) would see additional eligibility if the cutoff date was not just on mortgages purchased by June 1, 2009. That number swells to 916,000 if borrowers were able to use the program more than once. Currently, 1.5 million borrowers are eligible.
HARP can only be used on mortgages obtained by federally controlled mortgage buyers Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
The authors concede that if the changes they suggest were made, the additional borrowers wouldn’t get the same benefit, as the average payment reduction would be $244 per month, down from a current $279 average.
“However, an extra $200 per month could make a significant difference for many individual homeowners and for the macroeconomy, when aggregated. Although heightened refinancing activity will lower returns for investors in agency mortgage-backed securities, the macro effects of additional money in homeowners’ pockets more than offset those losses, meaning that refinancing is not simply a zero-sum transfer from investors to borrowers,” they say.
Backlash against expansion of GSE activity
Fear of taxpayer loss on new guarantees
I thought it was more complicated than that.
If you have a great credit score and been making payments all along and only thing stopping you from refinancing is you dont have equity why does govt need to get involved.
A) we have had rising stock values, one can easily borrow 50K per spouse from 401k and pay down some mortgage to get equity, or borrow Mom and Dad, sell your fancy truck or SUV etc. Or skip some vacations etc. and start prepaying mortgage. Combined with housing rising almost 6% a year you should reach equity quick.
B) Which is outright theft, it is a wealth transfer, Non-GSE means private folk own the bonds. It is not the govts money to give away. Widows and orphans who bought non GSE MBS for income stream back in 2003-2008 got burnt bad when tons of folks defaulted and their MBS dropped almost 80% in value by Spring 2009. The non-gse MBS is slowly recovering. The only value of those are high coupon performing mortgages. If you let them all Harp them you destroy the MBS and kill their income stream. What right does Uncle Sam have to do this. You might as well have the folks who own the MBS send checks directly to the folks.
This is BS> If I lose $200 a month interest and someone gets an extra $200 a month how does that increase the economy. Sure it helps the needy homeowner. But it hurts the bond holder. On a macro level what is point.
“However, an extra $200 per month could make a significant difference for many individual homeowners and for the macroeconomy, when aggregated. Although heightened refinancing activity will lower returns for investors in agency mortgage-backed securities, the macro effects of additional money in homeowners’ pockets more than offset those losses, meaning that refinancing is not simply a zero-sum transfer from investors to borrowers,” they say.
BTW some good Long Island Housing info today in Newsday.
In a nutshell.
Homes 300k to 400K starter homes are selling like hotcakes.
Homes over 1 million to 1.5 million selling quickly.
Homes over 1.5 million selling slow
Homes between 700K and one million selling slow.
I can see why. In spite of Sandy in my town the starter homes between 300K and 400K sell really quick. Any newlwed couple can easily afford them. 80K down and a 320K mortgage at 4%. Most folks have greived taxes since bust and most houses are in pretty good shape due to renovations done in boom of 2003-2007 combined with recent Sandy renovations. The 400K house in 2002 compared to the 400K house in 2013 is night and day. People earn more, rates are lower and homes are in better shape.
Trouble is folks are unsure of housing recovery and kids have student loans. They aint getting in debt to their eyeballs. They dont want the 700K to one million homes as only difference between that and a 400K home near me. Is one extra bedroom, one extra bath, one extra garage and ten feet more property. A newlwed couple with no kids aint spending double for more space they may never need or may not need for like 15 years.
(from last night)
I couldn’t agree more … that it’s supposed to work that way. However in my limited experience, it usually never does.
chicagofinance says:
July 15, 2013 at 11:45 pm
Bottom line in our court system…it errs on the side of letting a guilty man go free versus the tradegy of incarcerating an innocent…..that is just the structure of things…..
Of course we could say that about all the bail-outs (and much much more regarding our govt/economy)… but then that would hurt you if no more TBTF. Cry me a river
JJ says:
July 16, 2013 at 8:38 am
Which is outright theft, it is a wealth transfer. It is not the govts money to give away.
We were discussing Bacon-flavored Astroglide a few weeks ago….I wonder if this will be offered in bacon-flavor?
The oy of sex! Kosher lube a blessing for religious Jews
By REUVEN FENTON and BRUCE GOLDING
Who says kosher sex has to be as dry as matzo?
A West Coast manufacturer of personal lubricants says it’s become the first company to have its slippery stuff blessed for use by religious Jews.
Trigg Laboratories announced yesterday that the Rabbinical Council of California had certified 95 percent of its “Wet”-brand products as kosher after an intensive, two-year review.
As part of the process, the company said it submitted its entire 52,000-square-foot plant in Valencia, Calif., to strict “kosherization” procedures.
Approved “Wet” lubes will now be stamped with a “K” to show they meet the standards of Jewish dietary law, known as “kashrut,” which prohibits the consumption of certain animals and requires the ritual slaughter of those deemed edible.
In touting the certification, company founder Michael Trigg lifted a line from an old Hebrew National commercial for its kosher hot dogs.
“We’ve always maintained the highest standards of production and quality control for our entire line of premium products,” Trigg said. “The ‘K’ imprint on our packages says that we maintain the highest standards of purity and answer to a higher authority.”
The Rabbinical Council of California didn’t return a call for comment, but Trigg spokesman Dean Draznin said its review included checking the company’s manufacturing methods and suppliers of raw materials.
He said the certification ensures that none of Trigg’s products contain ingredients derived from pigs or shellfish, and that any other animals used to create the joy gels were treated humanely.
Draznin also said Trigg sought the certification because it plans to start selling its “Wet” products in Israel, where “its a given that if it’s sold, it needs to meet kosher laws.”
According to the Web site of the Orthodox Union, which calls itself “the world leader in kosher certification,” only three lubricants are currently certified kosher. But all three are industrial products for greasing hydraulics and machinery used in food preparation.
Rabbi Shmuley Boteach, author of the best-selling book “Kosher Sex,” hailed yesterday’s announcement.
“It’s nice to see that rabbis are not shying away from addressing sexual aid, which will facilitate great excitement in the bedroom,” he said. “People misunderstand Orthodox Jews, in that they believe that they have sex through a sheet with a hole in the middle, that Orthodoxy is profoundly prudish. Nothing can be further from the truth.
“Orthodoxy is profoundly passionate. Orthodox couples have great sex lives, they’re encouraged to. . . . Anyone who portrays Orthodoxy in a different light and . . . believes that Orthodoxy encourages sexual repression really knows nothing about the Jewish religion.”
An Orthodox rabbi who works as a kosher supervisor — but who didn’t want be identified due to the subject matter — said the newly kosher lube should glide off the shelves.
“There’s probably a market for it,” he said. “I’m sure for some people it’s better to have something that’s kosher than something that isn’t.”
Comrade,
Admittedly, I just read the summary at the top … but that case is the town being sued/held liable, not the officer. If I’m wrong, let me know but that was my take.
Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:
July 15, 2013 at 9:15 pm
[51] Joyce
Irwin v. Town of Ware, 392 Mass 745 (1984).
[15] Joyce,
It was the town but that is the deep pocket and is a necessary party in employee tort cases. But it does to the point that actions in an official capacity are not immune. Further, it was close on the facts which is why it came to mind.
[3] anon,
Well then I counsel being on your best behavior.
Wow. As one who has practiced in this area, words fail me.
http://o.dailycaller.com/thedailycaller/#!/entry/irs-official-lerner-speedily-approved-exemption-for-obama-brothers-charity,51954f6bda27f5d9d0c69a95/1
I would have taken the Fifth too.
[14]. Chifi
That’s my morning laugh, thx. Now, are you trying to out-JJ JJ?
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1243409/thumbs/o-NYDN-570.jpg?7
Aww c’mon now you’re splitting hairs. I anxiously await your apology.
:P
15.joyce says:
July 16, 2013 at 9:09 am
Comrade,
Admittedly, I just read the summary at the top … but that case is the town being sued/held liable, not the officer. If I’m wrong, let me know but that was my take.
Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:
July 15, 2013 at 9:15 pm
[51] Joyce
Irwin v. Town of Ware, 392 Mass 745 (1984).
It’s still safer for a black man to walk through a white neighborhood than it is for a white man to walk through a black neighborhood.
Most of my TBTF money was from folks losing money not the govt. Most of the big financial institutions if they went BK would have wiped out shareholders and perf shareholders and bond holders would have had recoveries in the 50-90 ranges as they had lots of assets. It really was the retail folks panicking and selling that caused the pricing issues. If one panics and sells at the bottom like folks at least they made the decision.
One bond I did not have the balls to buy and kicking myself. I saw a retail investor sell a 250K Ford 30 year non-callable bond with a 8% coupon at 15 cents on the dollar. Ouch. He took a over 200K loss and lost around 2k a month interest income for next 30 years. But he sold in a panic which is different that Uncle Sam stealing the GM Bond Holders money and giving it to the unions.
Giving stocks are up 130% almost in last four years it is hard to imagine anyone has trouble buying a house. How hard is it to save for an asset rising 1-3% a year when your mutual fund is rising 20% a year.
joyce says:
July 16, 2013 at 9:03 am
Of course we could say that about all the bail-outs (and much much more regarding our govt/economy)… but then that would hurt you if no more TBTF. Cry me a river
[22] libtard,
Not for me. I have no problem walking through black hoods. For one thing, they see a professional looking, large, fit white guy and they think “Feds.” Furthermore, if I am in PA, I am not alone. Messrs Smith and Wesson are with me.
(16)
Yes, the facts were fairly similar I did notice that. Again, I didn’t read it in depth, but what else struck me is that ‘officer discretion’ wasn’t the end of it… that b.s. line actually did not work to get the officer/town off the hook.
(21)
I know you weren’t trying to argue and neither am I. I’m not splitting hairs and here’s why: The fact that the officer (or any govt agent) is hardly ever held PERSONALLY accountable (meaning jail time and/or personal fines) results in, you guessed it, no accountibility. If the town (a.k.a. taxpayer) is the entity held liable for individuals’ personal mistakes, torts, and criminal acts … what incentive is for those individuals to reform?
More on this Obama charity story from WaPo:
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-05-16/politics/39310148_1_tax-exempt-status-foundation-application
Interestingly, the facts in the story contain two glaring errors (one of which is glaring to anyone who can read, the other more esoteric so maybe not so glaring), that really soft pedal this story beyond the soft pedal it already gets from WaPo. For fun and prizes, who wants to hazard a guess what they were?
Not true. I bought a Jeep once in Harlem, great deal from an estate sale, it was around 1992 when city was at its worst.It was in a long term storage place somewhere on first avenue.
I took 4 train after work got off around Lex and started walking over, was winter so already getting dark. Half way there I realized there is a gigantic welfare project between 1st and 3rd and I see like 40 gang members and one or two guys doing drug deals ahead and for a split second I paused and thought if I turn around I aint making that long block back to subway and even if I did unless train was there I am dead.
So since it was 1991 I had my suit on and trench coat put my hand in my pocket like I had a piece and marched straight ahead, stared down the mothers and they scrambled like roaches as I marched through.
So I get to storage facility and spanish guy I am buying car off tells me you took the train, good, no cab would come up here anyhow. I forgot to tell you about that project. My neighbor in Harlem is a rare white Irish guy like you who looks like a cop. 99% of White Irish guys in suits walking through here are cops or detectives or they are pretending to be a wall street guy looking for drugs so the dealers run off. Me a five foot nine inch middle aged puerto rician in a sweat shirt they know, they would stick me in a second. You, aint worth the chance when they know 90% chance you are a cop.
I found it funny when he told me the safest guy in Harlem is a white six foot tall 29 year old Irish guy in a trenchcoat. No one is messing with him.
Libtard in Union (emulating JJ) says:
July 16, 2013 at 9:30 am
It’s still safer for a black man to walk through a white neighborhood than it is for a white man to walk through a black neighborhood.
what incentive is _that_ for those individuals to reform?
never had a problem walking in a hood they either thought I was there for dr*gs or looking to bust them for it. trick is always to walk around like you own the place. joys of growing up in a decaying urban neighborhood next to passaic and paterson
You and me are Starsky and Hutch, the Huggy Bears dont scare us
Painhrtz – Disobey! says:
July 16, 2013 at 10:07 am
never had a problem walking in a hood they either thought I was there for dr*gs or looking to bust them for it. trick is always to walk around like you own the place. joys of growing up in a decaying urban neighborhood next to passaic and paterson
Anon [1];
When that pigmy Reich opens his trap to say that, I can see Krugman’s palm.
F that. Last year, when the GSP was backed up terribly, I took my typical shortcut through the hoods of Irvington, Vailsburg (Newark) and East Orange. I saw a car going about 60 mph through a red light and then swerved to avoid getting side swiped by the legal traffic. The car went up on two wheels and stayed that way until it smacked into a telephone pole about 10 yards from old reliable. The five kids inside (couldn’t have been a single kid over 14) jumped out and ran. You can be as tough as you want. It’s still way more dangerous for the white guy in the hood then it is for the black guy in the burbs. I’m not racist either. These are just facts.
The Huggy Bears? Haven’t heard of them in ages. What’s next JJ, Cabbage Patch Kids?
Con’t [31];
No sign of inflation anywhere. Globe is awash in liquidity.
Liquid green paper sloshing all over the globe, just looking for a place to go, but no inflation problem? Way to contradict himself in successive sentences.
testing
Grim [4];
What about the lenders? Behind the Wall Street behemoth investment fund and PIMCO is Ma and Pa kettle’s pension check. Gov’t can bail out the agency borrowers, because they also guarantee to make the lender whole. What happens to the non-agency lenders? At best, they get paid off early (acceleration risk) and have to reinvest in a 0% rate environment.
[30] JJ
Huggy Bear was an informer. Why would he scare anyone?
[32] libtard
That’s statistical. It’s more dangerous for everyone in the hood. My point, and JJs, is if you are a large white guy in a suit in the hood, you won’t get messed with because they will think you’re a narc.
36 – What about the lenders?
The lenders make money, they are compensated based on pipeline, not lifetime value.
What about the investors?
Why exactly aren’t they responsible for their own shortsightedness with regards to prepayment risk and regulatory risk?
GSE backed loans are by far the lions share of the market, and prepayments have skyrocketed, but not due to HARP, they’ve skyrocketed due to the drop in interest rates. Overall prepayments related to HARP 2, and potentially HARP 3, are small in comparison to the broad market.
Just about every homeowner, with reasonable credit, and some equity, has already refinanced. Every one of those a prepayment. Housing activity all throughout the bubble represented prepayment risk, every mortgaged home sale resulted in a loan closed early.
Between the real estate bubble and the refi bubble, we’ve just gone through the greatest prepayment rotation in the history of modern mortgages.
Any investor that makes so much as a peep about mortgage prepayment risk now is full of shit. The prepayment ship has long since sailed.
Lib don’t disagree with you on that suburb statement. Out here in the sticks of Randolph cops profiel folks tryuing to come over from Dover all the time.
JJ huggy bears one of the summer hockey leagues I played had a team called the huggy bears was filled with small skilled russian jews
[1] anon (and for good reason)
“No sign of inflation anywhere.” Reich doesn’t buy his own groceries, does he?
“Real problem is lack of sufficient demand as global productivity surges.” Yup, and all of the liberal solutions fail to take into account that pesky elasticity and substitution problem. Said it before, will say it again, we cannot grow domestic demand through forced redistribution unless we cut off international supply (which would obviate the need for forced redistribution). You want a trade war, you’re just to chickenshiite to come out and say it.
As of late last year, LPS was reporting that prepayments were running about 25% of the overall outstanding mortgage portfolio on an annual basis, 1 in 4 mortgages. This is huge, we’re talking about one quarter of the entire US mortgage portfolio disappearing, and being replaced with new loans, presumably at lower rates, every year. At this rate, in 4 years, the entire mortgage portfolio has rotated.
I’d love to see some data on the age of the average GSE backed mortgage. I’ve never seen it, but I’ll wager a guess at it being somewhere around 5-6 years, max.
I’m pretty sure I played against that team as well about a month ago up at Floyd Hall. I wish I remembered their name(s). They only beat us by one, but they outplayed us convincingly. They were also fifteen years younger than us on average.
Nom [26];
If Abon’go Malik Obama and his charity got retroactive TE status, were they absolved for the discrepancy and/or failure to file during the time they were not TE?
Was that the obvious error, the esoteric one, or neither?
Grim [39];
I’m with JJ’s logic [10] on this one. If someone owes me at 8%, and the gov’t refis him out at 4% when he otherwise would not have been able to, the gov’t just picked my pocket. Now its no surprise that Barry has no reluctance to “Spread [other people’s] wealth around.” I’d still think that there is a 5th amendment takings claim there. This administration still likes the 5th amendment, don’t they?
MBS bonds have a whole “seasoning” process where PhDs calculate out the prepayment risk.
Now Govt is distorting it. For instance, in the last year Chase has been calling up homeowners do get them to do Hamp and Harp type things who would never refinance. One lady near me in debt to eyeballs who would never think she could refinance Chase twice came to her house after 8pm to get it done. Why cause Chase just services loan. They get lots of fees for refinancing and still get servicing rights.
Only person hurt is who ever owns mortgages. It also throws out 50 years worth of historical data due to distortions caused by govt programs.
For instance when I buy callable Junk Bonds with a high coupon I look for companies that wont go BK but on other hand dont have enough case to refinance. Genworth, GMAC, Bank of America, Rite Aid, Realogy from Spring 2009 to Spring 2013 fit the bill. Now if Uncle Sam just gave them money at 3% and told them to call my 8% bonds that would be BS> that is what Harp/Hamp is doing.
You give Anon way too much credit. I don’t think he understood any of what you just posted.
41.Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:
July 16, 2013 at 10:53 am
[1] anon (and for good reason)
“No sign of inflation anywhere.” Reich doesn’t buy his own groceries, does he?
“Real problem is lack of sufficient demand as global productivity surges.” Yup, and all of the liberal solutions fail to take into account that pesky elasticity and substitution problem. Said it before, will say it again, we cannot grow domestic demand through forced redistribution unless we cut off international supply (which would obviate the need for forced redistribution). You want a trade war, you’re just to chickenshiite to come out and say it.
http://outfront.blogs.cnn.com/2013/07/12/who-is-zimmerman-defense-teams-mystery-intern/?hpt=hp_tvbx
46
Banks win due to Govt intervention…. and this is surprising due to the fact that the lobbyists wrote all the legislation & regulations?
Lib wouldn’t be surprised if they are still kicking around but this was back in 98-99. they would have to be our “age” by now as they were only a few years younger than me back then. they moved the puck around like they were all psychic. Their goalie was hasidic if I remember correctly.
in other news the ice rink up by me has an over 35 league in the spring so I may be back on razor blades for the first time in about 10 years come 2014. Looked reasonable 200 bucks for an individual player.
[48] Brian
I would call this a BS story but for the fact that we considered this ourselves for an invol manslaughter trial. It involved a traffic accident on a brutally stormy night and a decedent who pulled a coat over her head and tried to run across a major state highway. She also had pneumonia in both lungs, which likely didn’t help. Ordinarily, this wouldn’t have raised an eyebrow but the decedent was a Haitian immigrant and the driver white. Even the prosecutor admitted that they were only prosecuting in order to avoid looking racist and to get the family some money. The defense attorney was good but we actively discussed whether to add a black face to the defense table in case we got a black judge.
The case settled when the defendant pled responsible in exchange for a continued without finding. A year later, it was dismissed and the record expunged. There were two insurance policies, 10k and 25k, that plaintiffs could have reached. They settled on the 10k and because they signed a general release, never went after the 25k, and promptly left for Haiti.
on 46 — I agree with Joyce. You can’t have it both ways and complain about prepayment risk due to govt intervention (which, let’s think about this, is being done in the case of HARP so that people who are under water aren’t stuck paying double the interest rate they should be paying given the current interest rate environment, and presumably those people will use the savings from refi to avoid foreclosure and/or spend more money — i.e., less foreclosures and more consumer spending is good for the US as a whole on a macro level and thus in the government’s/everyone’s interest) and then turn around and say it’s ok to use taxpayer money to bail out big private banks who over levered and took undue risk which single handedly almost brought down the American financial system (because incentives at these banks, pay structures and the like, were/are completely warped — huge moral hazard problem).
If we are going to bail out Wall St. (b/c arguably it needed to be done given where we were — and I agree with that rationale by the way, bailout absolutely had to happen or we’d all be like Will Smith in I am Legend right now) we should also be ok with the prospect of the govt coming up with a program that helps people avoid foreclosures and/or puts a little extra money in their pocket (which is ok in my book, rates dropped, why shouldn’t they get the benefit of that like people who are above water in their homes — somewhat of an arbitrary distinction especially considering the origins of the housing bubble) which ends up having a positive effect on the economy (via expected increase in consumer spending and avoiding foreclosures). Oh and on the PHD point and their models, they should have gotten some better PHDs to do those models…if so, they would have accounted for the possibility of increased prepayment due to govt intervention given the overall level of govt/Fed intervention in recent history.
Like I said, can’t have it both ways.
[45] moose
Not the Takings Clause. Government, and the left in particular, hates the Takings Clause, and DOJ has a division that tries to limit its application.
I got my first rental!!! I am officially a servant to the folks who will occupy my beach place.
Then again, the weather and the stock market last two weeks have been good for shore and beach houses looking for last minute people.
I also have a second person ready to sign. Lots of nickle and diming kills you with all the trips to ace and home depot. Plus the time and gas.
The winter tenant should be most interesting.
I see why folks with multiple units due this for a living, having one ate up the last month.
But no matter how good or bad a landlord you are or what rates you charge it boils down to your carrying costs. If you own the place, it is low maint and the taxes are not too high any schmuck can make a living at it.
It amazes me folks who bought beaches places between Spring 2003 and 2008 who took out mortgages still are holding on trying to rent them out till market recovered. How do they make money?
I saw folks near me buy houses for 300K cash in last few months, Where folks five years earlier paid 500K and took out a 400K mortgage and both are competing for rentals. I have seen flippers buy beach places, for 150K do a 50K quick renovation, cheap furniture and go them rented for 14K for July and August. They are next to folks who paid 500K for same home and next to folks who paid 50K 30 years ago all renting. Crazy concept. A business where your cost has no bearing on what you charge.
52
ccb223,
I agree we have a moral hazard problem. It started long before 07/08. I believe it started before, yet was probably most apparent in recent times with the Greenspan Put.
That being said, I disagree with everything else you wrote for the most part.
Re 52 Wall Street did not get bailed out, they got loaned money at a high interest rate and they paid it back.
If that is a bail out I will bail anyone out.
In certain towns the broke dicks clinging on should have been foreclosed on long ago. it would be better for the town.
Biggest Moral hazzard in house is the mortgage interest deduction.
joyce says:
July 16, 2013 at 1:11 pm
52
ccb223,
I agree we have a moral hazard problem. It started long before 07/08. I believe it started before, yet was probably most apparent in recent times with the Greenspan Put.
That being said, I disagree with everything else you wrote for the most part.
So, I guess the FED didn’t do anything the last 5-6 (or 100) years did they, moron?
JJ says:
July 16, 2013 at 1:15 pm
Re 52 Wall Street did not get bailed out, they got loaned money at a high interest rate and they paid it back.
If that is a bail out I will bail anyone out.
In certain towns the broke dicks clinging on should have been foreclosed on long ago. it would be better for the town.
All I know as a large JP Morgan Stockholder, TARP got jammed down my throat and I had to take money I did not want and pay a ton of interest to Uncle Sam and get stupid new regulations. Then I buy Bear to help out folks and then they try to blame us for Bear stuff.
Nearly all bonds I bought was after melt down. I was not a bond holder or shareholder in the TBTF crowd pre 1998. Chase was only big bank I owned a lot of stock in. Funny I did own a wamu bond and they were ok with letting that and Lehman which chifi owned go down but saved Bear and Countrywide. Lots of folks go killed.
Citi today is 50 but remember it had a ten to one reverse split. Folks who owned it Spring 2007 are still screwed big time same as folks at gm.
GM, Ford and Chrysler with all their suppliers and vendors etc as well as dealership network employ millions of people That bail out was more helpfull to the middle aged folk with HS degrees than any other people. The stock holders and bond holders basically got killed. Not all bailouts were for wall street
joyce says:
July 16, 2013 at 1:18 pm
So, I guess the FED didn’t do anything the last 5-6 (or 100) years did they, moron?
JJ says:
July 16, 2013 at 1:15 pm
Re 52 Wall Street did not get bailed out, they got loaned money at a high interest rate and they paid it back.
If that is a bail out I will bail anyone out.
In certain towns the broke dicks clinging on should have been foreclosed on long ago. it would be better for the town.
JJ – Herb Allison who ran TARP for Obama died today. He did not go to his grave telling everyone JPM was fine in Sept of 2008.
http://www.americanbanker.com/syndication/herbert-allison-merrill-president-who-ran-tarp-dies-at-69-1060615-1.html?pg=1
“Re 52 Wall Street did not get bailed out, they got loaned money at a high interest rate and they paid it back.”
Hmmm. When the implosion of Lehman and Bear were occurring, the other IBs were pooping bricks. Especially Morgan Stanley if I recall correctly. Yet it was these firms that devised the CDOs, had the rating agencies lie about the risk and profited handsomely from it. At least until the turds which these CDOs really were came to light.
So the IBs created the mess that almost bankrupted themselves not to mention that their lobbyists through Phil Gramm removed the checks that were put into place to keep this from happening in the first place. So when MS was sh1tting bricks and the government knew that if only select IBs would take the money, the shorts would destroy only those select IBs. And JJ is saying that it was such a hardship for the healthy IBs, who knew they would get all of the recently shuttered IB’s businesses, to take a few high interest loans (even though they essentially print their own money the way the laws are setup in their favor) to hide the good from the bad. Typical pompous WS attitude is on display here. And the new rules the remaining IB had to swallow are absolutely pathetic. The craft queen of Nutley serves jail time as the real criminals get off scott free (Corzine/Mozillo, etc.).
what does No Group rentals mean in New Jersey?
Just asking. Had a women from NJ want to rent my place and tells me two couples and a baby.
Normally I dont care. But town is only single family occupancy and I cant get beach passes for two couples in one house. I know one couple is married. But I dont know if second couple is married and if not that makes 3 sets of people.
At Jersey shore homes that say no group rentals what does that mean. What is a group in Jersey shore lingo.
Board opinion: will this event be interesting or sixteen coffee affair?
http://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/events/showEvent?eventId=4702
Is there an open bar or food?
chicagofinance says:
July 16, 2013 at 5:23 pm
Board opinion: will this event be interesting or sixteen coffee affair?
http://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/events/showEvent?eventId=4702
I’m not sure. Usually the open bar and food is when they host it a Pulse in Rock Center.
JJ says:
July 16, 2013 at 5:28 pm
Is there an open bar or food?
at Pulse
What’s with the Heroin bubble?
Grim – There are now tighter controls of prescription drugs like Oxy (lots of Docs and pharmacists went to jail to make that happen) and the hard stuff coming in from Columbia apparently is very pure. A deadly combination for the junkies. I have read that they can’t get Oxy which they are addicted to so they quickly and turn to heroin to get rid of the “withdrawl” symptoms. This is not anything these kids would be doing if they could go back, they took the pure opiate pills with little side effects besides addiction and then switched to the hard street stuff when they could not get anymore pills. I don’t know the answer other than history Rhymes there will be a spike in deaths including celebs.
As Clot says nobody will be spared.
grim #68 in mod
No swingers.
JJ says:
July 16, 2013 at 4:07 pm
what does No Group rentals mean in New Jersey?
Just asking. Had a women from NJ want to rent my place and tells me two couples and a baby.
Normally I dont care. But town is only single family occupancy and I cant get beach passes for two couples in one house. I know one couple is married. But I dont know if second couple is married and if not that makes 3 sets of people.
At Jersey shore homes that say no group rentals what does that mean. What is a group in Jersey shore lingo.
So many high school kids are into it. It’s crazy. My brother discovered a kid OD’ing in the parking lot in the Vernon condos near mountain creek last year in his parking lot. Fkucked up.
grim says:
July 16, 2013 at 6:09 pm
What’s with the Heroin bubble?
[47]brian,
I recently penned this for a Facebook thread but it reminded me of anon so I repost it here.
” In Kenny’s defense, he is not a lawyer and has no background in law, politics or economics that I can discern, and if he will forgive me this one crude assumption, leads something of a sheltered existence in that his positions reflect a reality with which I am unfamiliar. Whether he took the red pill or I did remains to be determined.”
I took Oxy when recovering from my achilles tendon rupture surgery. I didn’t like the high at all, though the pain relief was amazing. Unfortunately it also kept me from sh1tting for like a week. How do people get hooked on this stuff. I got a better high from hash.
brain (5)-
Real mortgage banksters (as opposed to gubmint egghead apparatchiks) understand that you can’t refinance negative equity without disastrous consequences.
“I think there’s little hope at this point that HARP 3.0 for non-GSE loans will ever happen. What were the reasons, in your oppinion, that it never came to pass?”
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