From Bloomberg:
Existing-Home Sales Probably Declined
Purchases of previously-owned homes probably fell in August as mortgage rates at a two-year high began to slow the progress in U.S. residential real estate, economists said before a report this week.
Contract closings fell 2.6 percent to a 5.25 million annualized rate from the highest level since November 2009, according to the median forecast of 62 economists in a Bloomberg survey ahead of National Association of Realtors data due on Sept. 19. Another report is projected to show home construction starts rose in August, reflecting orders in the months preceding the run-up in interest rates.
Rising borrowing costs may temper the pace of the housing rebound that’s been a mainstay of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers meeting this week will decide whether the expansion and labor market have improved enough to warrant scaling back purchases of government and mortgage securities.
“The recent jump in mortgage costs will moderate the pace of the housing recovery but not derail it,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “The Fed is likely to go ahead with tapering. Borrowing costs could ease a bit between now and year-end as the market digests the idea that the Fed’s decision is not a tremendously negative event.”
From the Record:
NJ may have turned economic corner as state’s household incomes rose last year
For the first time since the 2007-09 recession, New Jersey’s household income rose last year, ticking up 1.2 percent to a median $69,667 — suggesting that the worst is over for the state’s economy, though it has not come close to regaining the ground it lost.
And the figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Wednesday reveal a more disturbing reality for the state’s poorest residents, whose economic situation continued to deteriorate in 2012. The number of people in poverty rose from 897,400 to 934,900 — almost one in nine New Jerseyans.
“The income hemorrhage was finally stanched in 2012,” said Rutgers economist James Hughes. But he added that the poor “are lagging way behind in the economy.”
Bergen and Passaic counties show the divide between haves and have-nots in the state. Bergen County’s median household income rose 2.2 percent, accounting for inflation, to $82,729, after falling every year since 2007. Passaic’s inflation-adjusted median rose by 10.4 percent after dropping 6 percent the previous year — suggesting a statistical quirk — but was still only $59,050.
Whether the improvement is continuing in 2013 remains to be seen. While one measure of the economy — the state’s jobless rate — dropped from 9.2 percent at the end of last year to 8.6 percent in July, New Jersey has added only about 27,000 jobs so far this year compared with 66,400 in all of 2012. The state’s August job numbers are due out today.
New Jersey remains one of the best-off states in the nation, with a median household income second only to Maryland’s and more than $18,000 above the national median of $51,371. And while the state’s poverty level rose to 10.8 percent in 2012, from 10.4 percent a year earlier, it remained well below the national rate of 15.9 percent in 2012.
From the Star Ledger:
It’s still cheaper to buy than rent in New Jersey, but the gap is narrowing
The gap between renting and owning a home is shrinking, according to a study by the real estate firm Trulia.
Last year, it was 43 percent cheaper to rent in Newark than to buy a home in the city. Now it’s about 35 percent less expensive.
Newark was the only New Jersey city cited in the data, but the story is similar for most other municipalities as interest rates and home values rise faster than rents.
According to Trulia, Newark home prices rose 2.6 percent between last month and August 2012, while rents climbed 2.4 percent. At the same time, mortgage rates have gone up more than a full percentage point.
Trulia calculated the average rents and for-sale prices of similar homes in the same neighborhood. It also tallied monthly costs such as insurance and taxes vs. maintenance fees, along with other factors. It assumed a 4.8 percent mortgage and a 20 percent down payment for home buyers.
The rent-versus-buy math depends on local factors such as property tax rates and market prices.
Yesterday was capitulation. I had money on the sideline in 401(k) and put in buy orders before 4m to join the party. Screw it, if the policies are to benefit the rich via the stock market…….Who cares it gas goes to $4 a gallon and our imports rise in price by 20% by devaluing the dollar? We gotta keep that stock market high and keep the financial engineers happy in the housing world.
@ianbremmer: Median US Household Income
Asian – $68,500
White – $57,000
Hispanic – $39,000
Black – $33,000
Whew. No way your buying anything on the median income.
yep, those figures would be lower if it weren’t for Bernake
THESE figures would be lower if it weren’t for Bernanke
http://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/list/
I thought we were in solid recovery (cough…) from the great recession? Why is the QE pipeline open indefinitely?
Believe in hope and change…
8.Fast Eddie says:
September 19, 2013 at 9:53 am
I thought we were in solid recovery (cough…) from the great recession? Why is the QE pipeline open indefinitely?
Existing home sales come in up 1.7% to 5.48m saar, above estimates.
Median home price up a whopping 14.7% yoy
Philly Fed comes in at a very strong 22.3, jobless claims were very good as well, mortgage rates tick down to 4.5, leading indicators above consensus, it’s a good day.
8. So we can pay bankers’ bonuses.
Goes to show asian men are smarter than asian women.
anon (the good one) says:
September 19, 2013 at 8:54 am
@ianbremmer: Median US Household Income
Asian – $68,500
White – $57,000
Hispanic – $39,000
Black – $33,000
We have been in a buying opportunity for four years now you join the party?
Honestly I am like 99% in the market and depresed I dont have balls to go 100% in or use margin.
dan in debt says:
September 19, 2013 at 8:47 am
Yesterday was capitulation. I had money on the sideline in 401(k) and put in buy orders before 4m to join the party. Screw it, if the policies are to benefit the rich via the stock market…….Who cares it gas goes to $4 a gallon and our imports rise in price by 20% by devaluing the dollar? We gotta keep that stock market high and keep the financial engineers happy in the housing world.
iOS 7 is astonishingly beautiful
terrible photos from English estate agents. Grim new idea for fun with the MLS?
http://tinyurl.com/nkhe644
wheww getting past the bot nannies is getting difficult
JJ, so you say your 99% in, only the balls out? What’s new?
Can’t cut off the QE…ever. It would be like cutting off life support to a brain-dead person who’s in a persistent vegetative state.
Now this is what I call leadership!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/18/new-york-times-obama-syria_n_3949419.html?ir=Media
The next step in the worldwide financial nightmare will be heralded by the beginning of full-on sovereign collapses.
All the banksters’ bad debt has bled up to the sovereign level. Doom is nigh.
No one could’ve seen it coming…
hype (20)-
In the new Amerika, you have to have the media lined up with your political and military agenda so that you have a unified message going to the sheeple that the butt-banging they’re getting is actually good for them.
If loose and easy money caused the problem, loose and easy money must be the answer too. That’s the way it always works, right? The cause and the solution are always the same.
If you buy a house in Newark and are shot to death in less than 6 months is buying still cheaper than renting?
ExPat [26];
“To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems.” -Homer Simpson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdFoAr5QdwA
http://freakonomics.com/2013/08/29/who-are-the-most-successful-immigrants-in-the-world/
According to this Freakonomics podcast I listened to yesterday, Lebanese-Americans have PhDs 3:1 ratio over the general American population and the group also has a median household income of $68K. They story anecdotally states in the 70’s and 80’s Lebanese immigrant boys were only given two choices of study by their parents, Engineering or Medicine. Something like the 1 out of the 30 richest people in every developed country is Lebanese. Interesting listen.
Median US Household Income
Asian – $68,500
White – $57,000
Hispanic – $39,000
Black – $33,000
Back in 2009 I was usually on average 70-100K in margin on t0p of 100% in.
I only feel confident enough to go 99% in.
Carlito says:
September 19, 2013 at 11:18 am
JJ, so you say your 99% in, only the balls out? What’s new?
23 Scrapple n’Ricin
Don’t forget the media’s role in manipulating the economic agenda as well. For several years, they’ve been touting the notion that the Fed is going to be more transparent and predictable in order to provide market stability. The past several weeks had lots of coverage anticipating tapering…and then…SURPRISE! Taps will remain open, even though the media helped get tapering priced into the market.
I guess the Fed was just kidding about all that transparency and stability mumbo jumbo.
Retail investing at this juncture is like being the mark in a forced game of three-card monte.
JJ…I dunno…this budget/debt talk got me nervous…I am ~25% YTD, I think I’ll pull out until is settled
Prices of everything would be lower.
6.anon (the good one) says:
September 19, 2013 at 9:05 am
yep, those figures would be lower if it weren’t for Bernake
That’s for damn sure.
7.Carlito says:
September 1, 2013 at 9:43 am
THESE figures would be lower if it weren’t for Bernanke
http://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/list/
Funny add them up and you only get $197,500 which is about what you need in income to buy a home in Bergen County
But this is what they make in the rest of the county. After Sandy when I was trying to get stuff paid for by FEMA inspector and neighbors getting quotes from out of state insurance adjustors and out of state contractors for the longest time they were denying aid or jacking prices.
LI and Bergen County salaries of folks in 1,600 square foot house were shocking. Middle class folks were applying for aid to Red Cross/Catholic Charities/FEMA as hardship cases on 200K income.
It was completely shocking to home inspectors making 45k a year
Median US Household Income
Asian – $68,500
White – $57,000
Hispanic – $39,000
Black – $33,000
When rates rise and banks stop lending lets do loansharking!!
Carlito says:
September 19, 2013 at 1:08 pm
JJ…I dunno…this budget/debt talk got me nervous…I am ~25% YTD, I think I’ll pull out until is settled
These threads are a blog…it is not fcuking Twitter…you can post more than 140 characters….
Scrapple n’Ricin says:
September 19, 2013 at 12:17 pm
hype (20)- In the new Amerika, you have to have the media lined up with your political and military agenda so that you have a unified message going to the sheeple that the butt-banging they’re getting is actually good for them.
OK just curious how much do you think would deny someone aid.
So I had the NYS Sandy folks do a full inspection of my house yesterday. Three hours.
Supposedly they are authorized to pay for base level repairs to my house. All that was done and all to be done minus FEMA grant.
Supposedly it is not income based but discretion wise folks over a certain amount of income get haircuts on pay out. No hard formula, individual case workers decide. Of course you can appeal.
So lets say you were the case manager. Joe Blow walks in with 100k worth of damage, 30K FEMA and requests a documented 70K grant.
Now if it is a poor widow if you dont pay loses home and goes to shelter I imagine 100%
What about Dad making 100K with four kids and a stay at home wife. I most likely would go, he should have saved more, but what the heck 100%
A Dad with 300k and a big mortgage, heloc and three kids in college and some medical bills or a sick kid, sure why not.
But at what point do you say I am giving you a haircut?
400K, 800K? I dont know. Oddly program comes from folks taxes.
The guy making 400K looking for 70K paid 160K in taxes in 2012 and widow paid zero taxes. So even if I give guy making 400K the grant he still paid 90K.
Red Cross gave out small amounts but none was income based. They believe you don’t discriminate in a disaster. What only masks and water bottles for low income folks let the rest die.
Sandy and govt aid is a very interesting thing.
Did you buy your tree huggin clown car yet?
chicagofinance says:
September 19, 2013 at 1:40 pm
These threads are a blog…it is not fcuking Twitter…you can post more than 140 characters….
I can’t form coherent thoughts of more than 140 characters.
…call it the haiku of idiocy.
What You Need to Know Before Buying a House
Yes, the market is looking up. But don’t let the euphoria obscure the flashing yellow lights.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323906804579036763834997586.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth
The housing market is a simulacrum of a sham of a farce. When the entire financial system collapses, there will be nothing but wailing and the gnashing of teeth, whether you live in a train town or in a cardboard box.
The best thing about my life is that I got myself away from dealing with a bunch of rictus-faced, lying, sack-of-shit RE agents every day.
Naturally, I exclude grim from my previous comment.
Apologies if this has already been posted…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wait-but-why/generation-y-unhappy_b_3930620.html
Thanks Gator….
What the overwhelming vast majority of people in NJ need to hear…..
“2) Stop thinking that you’re special. The fact is, right now, you’re not special. You’re another completely inexperienced young person who doesn’t have all that much to offer yet. You can become special by working really hard for a long time.”
overwhelmingly
This is one psycho individual, and his family, too.
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2013/09/shiquan_bellamy_guilty_on_all_counts_in_jersey_city_double_homicide_punches_table_and_shouts_as_verd.html
Great careers take years of blood, sweat and tears to build — even the ones with no flowers or unicorns on them — and even the most successful people are rarely doing anything that great in their early or mid-20s.
F.ucking priceless.
VIX at its lowest ever
Fast Eddie, but when your taught your entire life how special and unique you are, why shouldn’t someone hand 100K a year for your degree in artisanal basket manufacture or male sublimination through feminist archetypes.
I’m glad huffpo is blocked at work. I’m sure the comments would make me cry like Iron Eyes Cody at the amount of stupidity contained therein.
What makes NJ so special, is that everyone who lives here thinks they are special. Don’t ever change NJ.
Pain – try this link instead…
http://www.waitbutwhy.com/2013/09/why-generation-y-yuppies-are-unhappy.html
[52] gator
That is fcuking hilarious. And so true.
Is NJ “Exceptionalism” similar to American “exceptionalism”? Was American “exceptionalism” really a result of favorable demographics after a world war which destroyed Europe’s manufacturing base and before the “emerging” markets were anywhere developed? Or are we indeed “special”?
55. God Bless America. And Apple. I luv my new OS…😛
Fast Eddie.
I knew the visions of rainbow-spraying unicorns prancing on the grassy hill of Lucy’s career expectations would thrill you.
What’s so great about the new iOS. Does it remind you every minute to stop screwing around on your phone and get back to work? Later this year my company will replace my Blackberry Bold with either a new Blackberry, a new Iphone, or a Galaxy S4. My wife and kid both have personal Iphones. I have a personal 7″ Kindle HD. My main interest is reading work emails and accessing work functionality. Which should I choose?
Interest rates double at the mention of taper. QE once started cannot and will not end. Abenomics for the world.
Putin is a real leader. The best we can offer is puff the magic Kenyan.
Brian – We all think we are special…In Lil Gator’s PreK-2 primary school, pages of the parent handbook had to be dedicated to the difference between “bright” and “gifted”. All of our coddled little snowflakes are special.
Nom 53 – Yes. I was so happy the day I got out of having to manage those kids.
60. You can have Putin’s style of leadership.
Kids are always products of their environment. With a precious few rising to senior management.
Gator thank you that made my night
Pain 64 – We aim to please. Home you got to check out the HuffPo comments from home :)
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