From HousingWire:
5 brilliant insights in the CoreLogic April MarketPulse
1) Rise of short-terms
In 2006, 86.2% of all refinance originations were 30-year terms. In 2013, the share of refinance originations with a new 30-year term dropped to 60.1%.
Because of this trend, the share of shorter-term mortgages has been rising. In 2013, 15-year loan terms accounted for 27.3% of all refinance mortgage originations, up from 26.7% in 2012 and boosted from 8.8% in 2007.
…
2) Return of the HELOCsAs borrowers regain their equity and interest rates continue to increase over the next few ?years, the incentive to stay in one’s existing home and finance home improvements though home equity lines of credit will likely increase relative to purchasing a new home or refinancing with cash out. This is good news for the home improvement industry and mortgage lenders who focus on home equity lending, as both will benefit from the resurgent consumer demand.
3) Short sales down
Although home price appreciation and other factors have contributed to the decline in short sales, the expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act could be having an impact. Since the act expired on Dec. 31, 2013, CoreLogic data shows that borrowers are likely thinking twice about pursuing a short sale without the tax exemption.
4) No, it was not the cold (mostly)
…
Although colder weather is a substantiated factor, clearly, the monthly change in housing starts is not entirely attributable to the colder-than-average temperatures.Past severe winters that have affected housing starts negatively were followed by a rebound after temperatures began to rise again. This analysis indicates there should be a rebound again this spring, but it will not be sufficient to counteract the current weakness in the market, which can’t be blamed on the weather.
5) Construction employment
According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released in early March, nationwide construction employment increased 2.6% year over year in February and has been increasing on a year-over-year basis since June 2011. Although these year-over-year increases look tepid, they are strong when compared to the period of double-digit decreases in construction employment from January 2009 to March 2010.
Whose your daddy
I’m your daddy.
SOSDD
I’m better armed than both of you. That makes me your daddy.
I’m also anon’s daddy. Now where is that kid? It’s time for his spanking.
would not be so sure grim
whoops nom brain in a different state today damn toddler nightmares
Looking through the February CoreLogic report – again very strong for the area…
NY-JC-WP, NY-NJ MSA (NY Metro Area)
Distressed sales share down to 9.1% from 10.1% a year ago
Home price index up 9.5%, up 9.9% excluding distressed
Now only down 7.2% from peak
NJ Statewide
Distressed share down to 13.1% from 14.4%
HPI up 7.3% YOY, excluding distressed up 7.4%
Currently 20.7% down from peak
Statewide approximately 9.5% of homes in negative equity (14.3% of mortgage holders, which represent approximately 66% of homes), with the large majority of these being in the typical distressed areas. Suspect that if the foreclosure pipeline picks up significantly, this number will fall relatively quickly. Compared to other states we’re in pretty good shape here. If we look at only the NY Metro MSA, this number falls to almost half.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101575849
So the local RE market is 7.2% from being what is universally recognized as an irrational market bubble high?
Fast Eddie, go get your check book! Trade up now, or be priced out forever.
Read your comments yesterday, but to late in the day to reply and expect a response.
So is the advice I’m getting really to strategically default? I don’t think I will do that but I agree it’s probably the right financial move. I have a house I can live in for a long time, two cars that I can keep for long enough so my need for major loans and a great credit score is probably not a priority for the next few years. Probably could use a construction loan to expand my place at some point but not essential. We can live here happily without that.
Just to clarify I’m BC lurker because I live in BC now but the condo we’ve been discussing is in Hoboken, Hudson county. Not sure if that changes the foreclosure process or comments.
With regards to lib’s comments I’m not quite sure what he would have me do. Obviously it was a bad decision to buy that place and if I could go back and not purchase it in the first place I clearly would. But since that’s not possible, I’m not sure why he’s on me. I started following this blog after the times article on it. I already purchased the place by then.
Also I’ve been a landlord for 6 years now, I think I have some experience on what it takes. Your not the only guy renting out a place in the world.
I think I’ve done the best I’ve could after making a poor decision to purchase back in 2005. For the three years I rented a bigger place in Hoboken while renting my place out, I only paid 300-500$ (Depending on the year) a month more for a place twice as big, in a better spot and with a backyard, so I was looking at my situation from the perspective as if I was still living there and paying my mortgage but instead for 300 bucks extra I got to live in a much better spot.
Also at that time my place was probably worth 80-100k less than what I paid for it. I was stuck. I’ve held on to it, lost a bit of money but nothing major and I’m at the point where it’s probably worth 20-30k less than I paid for it and I think I can get out without writing a check (still not totally sure about the tax implications).
Back to the strategic default. Can I really collect 24000 in rent per year and when it finally forecloses not be forced to pay that money to them? My mortgage is through Wells Fargo and I believe they were one of the big banks with question all practices. I formed an LLC to manage this property two years ago. Does that affect what we’ve been talking about?
I do appreciate the chatter and comments about this topic
[7] pain
Its April 16th. My brain is always in a different place today.
BC Lurker,
If it was me, I wouldn’t want to go the default route. If I was dishing out money every month, I would just sell the f.ucking place for whatever it’ll go for and move on.
Now only down 7.2% from peak
Tack another $20,000 on the sale price of my house. Sorry, house buyers. Can’t afford it? Don’t have 20% to put down? F.uck you, pay me. Or, move to Indiana.
Is there any other way to interpret the “Number of Sales” chart than to declare the Boston Spring RE market DOA (even though sale prices are 10% higher than the 2005-06 peak)?
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Boston-Massachusetts/market-trends/
Also when you strategically default on a condo you also have issue of condo maint. If you stop paying that, sometimes boards are ineffective and they let it slide for years and then bankruptcy wipes it out. But sometimes boards are more tough. They go after tenant, sue you personally. People in my building on board are little old ladies literally and are afraid of folks. People go years without paying maint. Some buildings foreclose on unit after 90 days.
While we are on condos I have a maint question. My building we charge every unit $500 a month maint. Units range from 1090 to 1230 square feet. All units are two bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Building does not provide heat, AC, water or electric to units and units are responsible for own windows and balconies and taxes. Larger units do not cost us more to keep.
Common charge is same $500 maint all units. I ask because for instance my unit is 1,200 square feet with a double balcony and a 600 square foot unfinished attic space above unit to store some junk (called common space and I cant use it other than storage. The lower unit below me is one level around 1,100 square feet and no storage space and has a large shared patio with next unit.
Resale value wise upper units go for around 60K more than lower units. Sounds like a lot, but remember it is a flood zone. So part of it is paying for safety
Also how does real estate taxes work in a condo? Oddly the assessor appears to value the building as a whole than assigns a cost per square feet to tax. And common areas disappear. So my two balcony’s and my attic storage disappear and the fact I am in the back of the building facing a lawn vs a few units that are facing a parking lot disappears. I am only paying like $75 dollar more a year in taxes than the lower below me and same maint.
I did pay like 60K extra for upper. But still is this common? Do most condos that provide no utilities to units where units are close in size charge all the same maint?
The unit I turned down sold for 55K less and rent is only around $100 a month less. But wife could not get over it only had a one 5×8 patio and faced the parking lot and dumpster. I have two 7×10 patios, one covered on lower level and one above it off master and unit faces a lawn and is a little bigger. Once again it bugger her not the 55k more but fact other unit has same maint and almost same taxes. Plus she rationalized no one will want to use it as a summer rental facing a parking lot and it could only be year round rental.
9 – Grim, are HELOCs accounted in those underwater estimates?
#12..I was in similar situation after purchasing my 1987 condo for $140k, rented it from 1993-1999…sold for $92k brought $10k to closing…..strategic default maybe an option but I wanted a clean legal break that would not come back to haunt me ever again……I feel your pain!
#16
For every 2.6 homes listed 1 is sold ending April 2 ’14. What is the norm? The graph looks scary just looking at it but the numbers are not.
[17] JJ = In Boston condo maintenance is usually scaled to square footage. Where I live there are 52 units, most are 2BR around 900 square, but a couple are over 1000 square feet. There are also just a few 1BR units that are a little smaller and there are also a couple 1 BR that are just as big as 2BR units. There are also 2 basement apartments that are worth at least $100K less than any other unit, but that doesn’t matter, everyone’s maintenance (and voting power) is calculated by their “beneficial interest” which is simply the square footage of your unit divided by the total square footage of all units. Common space doesn’t enter into the calculation. So everyone is about 2% of the whole, but they carry it to two decimal places, so ours is something like 1.92%. They also use those percentages to determine if we have a quorum for voting at owners meetings. Interestingly, 48 units have fireplaces, but all 52 units have to foot the bill when we re-lined the chimneys because the fireboxes and chimneys are considered common areas. Thee were a few owners who didn’t like that news, especially since the individual assessments were about $7K per unit. Heat and Hot water is included in our maintenance, so a family of 4 or an old lady who never bathes, it doesn’t matter, still the same maintenance charge based on square footage.
Thanks The Original NJ ExPat
But difference is your building has heat and hot water included. Which does cost more per square foot. My condo is really odd. As on top of providing no heat or hot water we have exterior windows, doors and balconies as owners responsibility. Oddity as my decks is classified as a common area for my exclusive use but owner has to pay to repair it buy my parking spot is classified as a common area for my exclusive use but building pays to shovel it and black top it.
Every time a new tenant move in or a current owner rents it out they call the managing agent for problems and quickly realize even though HVAC is outside and Water heater in basement and your window is broken and the deck rail needs painting it is all owners responsibility.
yo – You did notice that it’s a logarithmic chart, not a linear chart, right? Total sales nearly an order of magnitude lower than any other time this century doesn’t look so good to me. We’ll see in a month or two, I’m seeing a lot of inventory coming onto the market the last two weeks at all-time high prices. I don’t see that turning out well.
#16
For every 2.6 homes listed 1 is sold ending April 2 ’14. What is the norm? The graph looks scary just looking at it but the numbers are not.
Remember the good old days when grim used to post articles like this?
http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/29669-heres-proof-the-housing-bubble-is-about-to-burst
For many months we have privately and publicly stated that the current housing “recovery” is an illusion – a false recovery built upon a sandy foundation above a slippery slope.
But the truth is, things are even worse.
In a recent article published by the Daily Real Estate News, (February 12, 2014 – “Rising Prices Chip Away at Housing Affordability”), evidence seems to suggest there are signs of a new housing bubble.
In the aforementioned piece it was stated that according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report, “strong year-over-year price gains are starting to take a bite into housing affordability.” It also noted that the median single-family home price rose in 119 out of 164 metro areas in the fourth quarter of 2013, which is 73%, with 26% of those metros posting double-digit increases.
That sounds like good news on the surface of it, but when one takes into consideration that incomes for the middle class in America have not come close to keeping pace with the rise in home prices, and that interest rates are expected to rise noticeably into 2015, you see that housing affordability is being negatively impacted.
This will impact prices.
Without housing affordability there cannot be a rise in first-time buyer participation. Without the entrance of first-time buyers, those wishing (or hoping) to move up to a larger home or relocate into other neighborhoods will not be able to so, at least not readily. This can produce a cascade effect on housing prices, starting to drive them downward to reflect a decrease in demand.
of stock brokers and onions this one is for you JJ
http://news.yahoo.com/ga-judge-asked-stop-vidalia-onion-rule-151041970.html;_ylt=A0LEV11zo05TTzEAC25XNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTB0ZGViNms2BHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDM4NV8x
BC Lurker…don’t fret about my opinion. It’s about as valuable as a banana peal. Hoboken is an expensive place to buy and from my perch it appears you probably should have just rented. Time and time again I see houses turn over in less than ten years. Often in under three. Unless the housing market gets bubbly after you buy (historically this only happens for very short periods and incredibly infrequently with real estate) you must live in the property for a minimum of seven to ten years for it to have made sense to purchase it since the amortization schedule on mortgages are so interest heavy during the first 1/4 of the term of the loan.
Most people get this idea of paying oneself rather than a landlord as a really smart move. They do mental calculation to justify the purchase and the longer the term the dumber the renting option appears. Then they buy a property and move three years later due to divorce, job migration, etc. They look at how much of the mortgage they paid down and between hazard insurance, taxes and maintenance, they actually didn’t spent three times more than had they rented and put the additional money into a savings account. As someone who has refinanced from a 30 to a 20 to a 15-year mortgage on two different properties, I know how little of my principle that I’ve actually paid off. On the bright side, I’m done refinancing and I’ll get my delayed gratification in 2028 rather than in 2041 as originally planned.
As to the strategic default, you simply have to do the math and see if it makes enough cents for you to pursue that option. I would have done it in a minute if the math worked for me. For me, it’s not about ethics at all. Though in your case, it looks like selling and getting the hell out of dodge would make the most sense.
Pardon my lack of proofreading. The baby wrecked me last night as did all of the losers who committed to play hockey with me last night and then didn’t show up. My legs are still burning.
10- “Is this an attempt to sour people on pensions and turn fools toward 401k’s where Wall Street grabs most of your gains?
This article assumes pensions will only gain 4% per year for 30 years! Ridiculous! Even counting The Depression, pension funds have never gained anything close to so little over such a long period.
And this same b.s. article is being re-run again and again! The FACT is that you need 1/2 the total contributions to a defined benefits pension to achieve the same payout as a 401k (Source: http://www.nirsonline.org/index.php?o...
These articles assume pensions will only get a 4% avg. annual return, then write articles about 401k’s getting 7.5% returns or better when, in fact, it’s the other way around. The professional pension fund managers do much better than the high-fee-paying uninformed workers choosing 401k funds on an annual basis.”
from business insider
“Every year, thousands of Chinese women pay for an operation to restore their hymens shortly before their wedding so that husbands can see blood on the sheets on their honeymoon night. Brides-to-be who cannot afford the 4,400 yuan operation (about $700) can walk into one of China’s 200,000 sex shops or go online to buy a cheap artificial hymen that seeps artificial blood when punctured. Although the percentage of Chinese women who engage in premarital sex has skyrocketed in urban areas from 15 percent in 1990 to more than 50 percent in 2010, conservative attitudes toward sex, even in big cities like Shanghai, remain largely intact. To most Chinese people, virginity matters, and husbands look forward to their wedding night when they can deflower their young virgin brides. For some husbands, the absence of blood on the sheets can be grounds for divorce.”
Question for Nom, or anyone else knowledgeable in this matter: I am evicting a tenant after going through court formalities. Tenant was slapped with a 2 day notice to vacate before officer and I lock up the joint. I get a phone call from county court yesterday stating tenant filed Orderly Removal request, but later rescinded it after stopping at Legal services. I would have locked them out today but postponed it thinking they would get the removal request signed today. Haven’t heard anything yet. Does anyone know why the tenant would rescind the Removal request?
[24] Expat
I’m with you there. But to his credit, Grim has always said, “Where you sit is where you stand.”
Now…back to the task of helping to reinflate this bubble! It is our patriotic duty to help provide all the liquidity the sellers need in order to liberate themselves from the yokes of their bad decisions.
2. Boeing
From 2008 to 2013, while Boeing made over $26.4 billion in U.S. profits, it received a total tax refund of $401 million from the IRS. Boeing’s effective U.S. corporate income tax rate over this six-year period was -2 percent.
5. Citigroup
Citigroup made more than $4 billion in profits in 2010, but paid no federal income taxes. Citigroup received a $2.5 trillion bailout from the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury during the financial crisis.
Citigroup has established 427 subsidiaries incorporated in offshore tax havens.
@SenSanders: You can read Sen. Sanders’ list of the top 10 tax avoiders here: http://t.co/5uVZ4SjrIa #taxes
anon (the good one) [32],
I have Boeing stock, that’s awesome! They have been giving me a solid return for years now. I just keep reinvesting the gains and letting it compound.
Actually article is correct for most part. Today outside of cops and firement Pensions are defined pension plans. You cannot get out more than is put in. In a defined pension plan your employer puts in 100% of contributions and can only be invested in GICs, annuities, treasuries etc. Nothing risky.
I actually have two defined pension plans, one from my wife’s old company and one from the big four firm I used to work for. Back in 2000-2009 when stocks were shake these things were great. I was getting 5-6% risk free.
But since majority of GICS and Treasuries are between 30 day paper and ten year bonds and sweet spot if 3-5 years in their income producing portfolio my guaranteed anuual rate is down to 3-4% percent which is actually they minimun.
When rates do and if they head back up guess what it will be a 3-5 year lag. All those gics and treasuries have to mature and roll over.
Granted one of these my wife left work for good January 2001 and the other I quit that job June 2006 so for most part we enjoyed a lot of high rates.
Most firms dont offer pensions at all anymore. And these defined type pensions plans that IBM and Chase introduced for employees 20-25 years ago have fallen out of favor as to be a pension plan employeer has to contribute 100% to plan. Also most have at least five year vesting and folks dont stick around that long and finally since they only invested in interest bearing investment grade securiites the rates are very low.
Chase only offers the defined pension plan now to employees making under 100K a year and the 401K part above a certain income there is no employer match.
The cops and firemen type pensions where employees dont chip in and are guaranted pensions for life are ticking time bombs.
Unisys almsot went bankrupt as a predessor company offered pensions with COLAs back in the 1940 to 1960s. My old neigbhor growing up retired from there in 1950 and died in 1996. Her pension was 4x her last salary!!!
28.Michael says:
April 16, 2014 at 11:50 am
10- “Is this an attempt to sour people on pensions and turn fools toward 401k’s where Wall Street grabs most of your gains?
This article assumes pensions will only gain 4% per year for 30 years! Ridiculous! Even counting The Depression, pension funds have never gained anything close to so little over such a long period.
And this same b.s. article is being re-run again and again! The FACT is that you need 1/2 the total contributions to a defined benefits pension to achieve the same payout as a 401k (Source: http://www.nirsonline.org/index.php?o…
These articles assume pensions will only get a 4% avg. annual return, then write articles about 401k’s getting 7.5% returns or better when, in fact, it’s the other way around. The professional pension fund managers do much better than the high-fee-paying uninformed workers choosing 401k funds on an annual basis.”
Ain’t your daddys real estate market | New Jersey Real Estate Report
kmownhwwmy http://www.g10q79hnc96t460l12te7l42hhj4k3yjs.org/
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“We might have already seen the peak of the recovery,” says The Daily Ticker’s Aaron Task. “Unless overall economic activity picks up and wages pick up we may be plateauing in the housing market.”
And there’s more data to support that thesis. Mortgage lending is at a 14-year low, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging about 4.6% vs. 3.6% a year ago and the homebuilder confidence index last measured 47 (below the key 50 level) indicating more pessimism than optimism about the market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/a-not-so-sunny-spring-for-housing-140453522.html
And you pay tax on the dividends and on the gain if you sell stock. Count that in and boeing pays a lot of tax
34.Fast Eddie says:
April 16, 2014 at 12:44 pm
anon (the good one) [32],
I have Boeing stock, that’s awesome! They have been giving me a solid return for years now. I just keep reinvesting the gains and letting it compound.
JJ,
If I pay tax on a stock sale, how is Boeing paying a lot of tax? What am I missing here?
The tax paid on sale of boeing stock at a profit is related to boeing being profitable which having a low tax rate help it be profitable.
Ahh… got it! To a liberals mind, the idea of a company experiencing profit growth is ev1l because it means less control over the muppets who are needed to advance their flawed ideology.
24- interesting comments from that article….I think there are small bubbles forming but it’s not in nj or anywhere that matters. Places like Arizona, Vegas, parts of Texas, and Atlanta are places that I would be worried about. California and fl are questionable, based on so many foreigners in those markets, I think those markets are fine. Cali and some parts fl have nice land, ESP Cali, which drives up the price. What the hell does Arizona, Vegas, Texas, and atl have to offer?
A major problem is the individual investors, including hedge funds, involving themselves into the housing market in such a big way. They are making it so much more difficult for people who simply want a home to live in which they own. These active investors must be the progency of the greedy fat cats who involved themselves in the housing market in the seventies and eighties – converitng apartments into cooperatives and condominiums. (“Hey, son, I told you how I made my money right before you were born; now I want to tell you how you can do the same thing: look at where people are living, let’s buy their buildings and houses, figure out a way to get them out, raise the rents/prices, etc.” ) This is going on now, esp. in NYC according to a recent article in The Nation that discuses how investors make lousy landlords, etc.
• Reply•Share ›
JJS • a day ago
You need real data to back-up your investor story. I agree that hedge funds purchased properties, etc… but how much and how significant was this? Problem is… there is no good data to make a convincing argument. Only theory and conjecture.
• Reply•Share ›
JustanOguy • a day ago
Depends where you are… A much better indicator than making predictions by throwing darts blindfolded is Buy vs. Rent calculations.
Does it make any sense for somebody to walk away from a mortgage if their mortgage payment is equal to renting a similar property?
Exactly why I cashed in and sold everything off back in 2005 and was completely out in 2006. Started buying again in 2011 – Where I am concentrated, you can still buy $200,000 homes where the mortgage payment on a FHA loan is still comparable to rent.
“Many of these hedge funds or individual investors paid higher than listing prices in order to secure these properties.”
Does that matter when the Cash on Cash returns for the final sales price are still 7%+?
Nope… I paid more than list price on several purchases when homes were being practically given away but my cash on cash returns are all above 8%.
You have burble bursting with real estate slowdown confused…
• Reply•Share ›
Dryheaves Daily JustanOguy • a day ago
Issue is that the 7% returns private equity companies who bought thousands upon thousands of these home spent approx 25,000 to fix up each unit and they entered into “as is” agreements with unknowing tenenats and the tenants arent fixing the leaky faucets or the broken garage doors etc. The returns aren’t as much as thought and in places like Phoenix where every third house is a rental no one rents for more than a year and there are so many properties that you cant jack up prices and so many of these homes house multiple families and Illegal aliens, etc. What will happen if these private equite firms decide to get out because the returns aren’t there. BUBBLE BURSTS.. APpraiser friend of moine is already expecting it to happen and is ready. He call the whole property boom in the phoenix area a joke perpetuated by the gvt of course.
35- jj, thanks for the background info on that article. It was very helpful in understanding it.
Michael…I’ll really ruffle your feathers.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/pat-garofalo/2013/11/13/boeing-blackmails-washington-state-into-the-largest-corporate-tax-break-ever
Now look up how much the executives at Boeing gave to their local and federal representatives.
Yup…Best government money can buy. Baa.
[44] Libturd
Boeing is a smart company. They intentionally source parts and site businesses in different states so as to maximize their negotiating leverage in Congress (you burn us, we’ll kill jobs in your district, and you’ll be out of office).
Also, from a security perspective, it behooves the USG to have a commercial aircraft company domeciled domestically. Boeing is TBTF.
As JJ says, don’t hate the playa, hate the game.
What’s this?
http://littlesis.org/org/43297/Boeing_Company_Political_Action_Committee%2C_the
16 – Original NJ Expat: switch that chart viewing to “year”…looks like drop comes mainly from April (last data point)…i.e. partial month data
I don’t think 4% is ridiculous…seems low but not ridiculous in this era of financial repression/low interest rates. A year like 2008 when the S&P is down about 40% will go a long way towards making that 4% a more viable target return.
#31,
Grim bought a home. That is the difference. He knows where his biscuits are buttered now. Surprised he is not advising BC lurker to buy a third home in Wayne.
Eric Holder stirred up a hornet’s nest the other day, whining to a mostly black crowd about the ill treatment he received from a Congressional Committee. Holder seemed to imply that he and President Obama have come in for rough treatment because they are black.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-promotes-society-helpless-victims-093000311.html
[49] Bystander
Yes, I know…I was going to facetiously advise BC Lurker to do what all the other underwater ‘homeowners’ are doing: add 20% to whatever price he paid and hold his ground no matter what.
Why won’t my post go through?
because your a dick and have been banned
Wrote is several different ways and still won’t go through?
or you just hit the ubiquitous filter that bans arbitrary words with no rhyme or reason
Bystander/clotluva:
add 20% to whatever price he paid and hold his ground no matter what.
Sounds logical to me. It only takes one
suckabuyer to close thescamdeal. Right?As of right now, grim did not make a mistake buying in 2011, the only mistake has been made by some of the holdouts like you, who are still renting, waiting for a day that may never come. You now have no inventory with higher prices, and slightly higher rates. Keep waiting, as your rent gets flushed down the toilet.
Bystander says:
April 16, 2014 at 1:56 pm
#31,
Grim bought a home. That is the difference. He knows where his biscuits are buttered now. Surprised he is not advising BC lurker to buy a third home in Wayne.
I bought in 2004 and 2011. Real sorry I bought in 2004.
44- lib- I tried responding like 10 times but it won’t go through. There is nothing offensive in my post, no idea why it won’t go through.
Sold 9 years ago for $780,000; currently asking for $769,000. Multiple this by a few thousand more f.ucked bag holders and you’ll begin to see the wretched picture unfolding before your very eyes:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3135689520-220-Donny-Brook-Dr-Allendale-NJ-07401
Sometimes the moderation filter will flag silly things. Such as Mickey D’s full name.
60- fast Eddie this is the way I see it, please correct me.
If prices dip 50%, and that house is now around 380,000, doesn’t that mean we are screwed? That means that everybody that has money, poor people don’t own houses, will have just lost 50% of what they are worth in re. You go through these types of drops once in a lifetime. We went through it already in 2008, where people lost a lot. What makes you think this will happen twice in a decade? If it happens again, houses will be bought with food, because the economy is gone. Our economy can not absorb another 50% drop in real estate, and live to see another day.
Even if it drops 50% and the economy doesn’t crash, it won’t stay at that price level for more than a week. If that house is now at 380,000, investors will swoop in and elevate the price. You see that house is not a 380,000 house…why? If they changed the price tonight from 769,000 to 380,000, you would see people bid the price up to at least 650,000. If they put that house on the open market it could not be had for 50% off, because there are numerous buyers at price points way above that. Waiting for the market to crash, at the moment, seems to be be a waste of time.
Mike,
Never said Grim made a mistake. There were great deals in 2011, but personally I had no reason to buy as single guy. Believe me- my money was better spent renting in NYC and sowing my oats again after my divorce. My issue is the narrative that we are back to normal market. It is still f-ed and bubble traps abound now. Fast and I just enjoy popping the nitrous infused balloon heads. There are tons of houses by me..many at 2003 levels. Another narrative..
@GQMagazine: Use “reply-all” responsibly.
Michael…you see housing very strangely. It’s not a good investment. It’s shelter. If my house went from 600K to 300K, it makes no difference to me. I will still live there. If my house goes from 600K to 1200K it makes no difference to me. I will still live there. If I try to sell it at 300K or 1200K, I will still need shelter and the new house I purchase will have gone through the same increase or decrease in value. Unless you are willing to sell at the peaks, rent, and buy in the valleys, the value of your home means nothing. It’s even more paper value than stocks and bonds because it’s less liquid (impossible to sell or buy at full value) and has substantial carry costs to boot. The fact that just about everyone under 60 years old doesn’t even fully own their homes (mortgaged to the bank) makes your argument even more nonsensical. Never think of a home as an investment. At best, consider it a long-term forced savings account.
Stu: Everyone knows that houses should be considered an ATM. Never leave any built up equity in a home. Always use refi’s to cash out or else put a HELOC in place. Once you have the proceeds, you give the money to me so I can buy annuities for you that have guaranteed income…….don’t steer everyone wrong…..
Libturd in the City says:
April 16, 2014 at 4:01 pm
Michael…you see housing very strangely. It’s not a good investment. It’s shelter. If my house went from 600K to 300K, it makes no difference to me. I will still live there. If my house goes from 600K to 1200K it makes no difference to me. I will still live there. If I try to sell it at 300K or 1200K, I will still need shelter and the new house I purchase will have gone through the same increase or decrease in value. Unless you are willing to sell at the peaks, rent, and buy in the valleys, the value of your home means nothing. It’s even more paper value than stocks and bonds because it’s less liquid (impossible to sell or buy at full value) and has substantial carry costs to boot. The fact that just about everyone under 60 years old doesn’t even fully own their homes (mortgaged to the bank) makes your argument even more nonsensical. Never think of a home as an investment. At best, consider it a long-term forced savings account.
Ok, that makes sense.
I agree, it’s definitely not a normal market. Real estate is more localized than ever before. I stated in an earlier post what markets I wouldn’t touch. North jersey, I believe is a different animal. The saying “buy land-they ain’t making anymore” really applies to this area. I think it’s one of the safest real estate bets in the U.S.
Somewhere in the past 10 years, America changed. They no longer loved “sprawl”. This has had a profound impact on RE. It’s why I think every piece of land inside the boarder of 287 is gold. This is a special location and we are witnessing it turn into one giant wealth belt. The coast has led the charge. It will spread to 287 in the next 50 years. You see, the change started in Manhattan and has since spread across the river to the coast of jersey. It is changing drastically as we speak. More and more areas of poor are being taken over and replaced. It’s really quite amazing. I wonder what the end result will look like. One thing for sure, the price of real estate in this area will rise drastically in the next 50 years, as the human population becomes more urbanized.
Bc- don’t sell the Hoboken condo….hold long and enjoy the fruits of your purchase. In the future Hoboken will only be for rich people, just like most of nyc today. Just think of it like this, you own a condo in the Chelsea section and it’s 1989, you are losing money short term because you overpaid, but think long term, like 2014, your property has now made you a lot of money.
Bystander says:
April 16, 2014 at 3:37 pm
Mike,
Never said Grim made a mistake. There were great deals in 2011, but personally I had no reason to buy as single guy. Believe me- my money was better spent renting in NYC and sowing my oats again after my divorce. My issue is the narrative that we are back to normal market. It is still f-ed and bubble traps abound now. Fast and I just enjoy popping the nitrous infused balloon heads. There are tons of houses by me..many at 2003 levels. Another narrative..
I’ve gotten two postcards from realtors fishing for houses to sell. The latest card invites you to a huge estate open house and then on the bottom of the card reads “please disregard if your home is currently listed. This is not an attempt to solicit the offerings of another real estate broker.”
Interesting. The inventory is so low in Monmouth County for decent mid range houses that realtors are resorting to this. Plenty of million+ and shotgun shacks with not much in between. The housing market is still awful and I see no signs of it improving. If you buy now like we did and don’t have a fortune, you will have to settle for less.
Movoto Real Estate released a report today naming the top 10 places for retirees in New Jersey. They looked at any town with at least 10,000 residents and then ranked each spot based on its cost of living — the higher the better, they said, assuming you’re rolling in dough once retirement comes — crime rate, amenities and weather including the average summer temps and air quality.
The criteria for each town was ranked on a scale of one to 110 and then the average was used for the final ranking.
Here’s what they came up with:
10. Ridgefield, Bergen County
9. Princeton Borough, Mercer County
8. Hasbrouck Heights, Bergen County
7. Madison, Morris County
6. Florham Park, Morris County
5. Haddonfield, Camden County
4. Glen Rock, Bergen County
3. Westwood, Bergen County
2. Tenafly, Bergen County
1. Ridgewood, Bergen County
I guess taxes weer not one of their criteria
Well said.
The thing is, whether or not it’s an investment or your shelter, the value still is real and important to economic participants. A 50% hit to the housing market right now will knock out this economy for good. A new economy will have to be formed. My wife’s company, Vornado, will go up in smoke, along with banks, and every other financial player.
Libturd in the City says:
April 16, 2014 at 4:01 pm
Michael…you see housing very strangely. It’s not a good investment. It’s shelter. If my house went from 600K to 300K, it makes no difference to me. I will still live there. If my house goes from 600K to 1200K it makes no difference to me. I will still live there. If I try to sell it at 300K or 1200K, I will still need shelter and the new house I purchase will have gone through the same increase or decrease in value. Unless you are willing to sell at the peaks, rent, and buy in the valleys, the value of your home means nothing. It’s even more paper value than stocks and bonds because it’s less liquid (impossible to sell or buy at full value) and has substantial carry costs to boot. The fact that just about everyone under 60 years old doesn’t even fully own their homes (mortgaged to the bank) makes your argument even more nonsensical. Never think of a home as an investment. At best, consider it a long-term forced savings account.
BREAKING: New Jersey wins back the top spot!!!
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20140415/ECONOMY/140419915/new-york-no-longer-worst-state-to-do-business#
[60] Fast Eddie
Sold in 2007 for $560K, listed in 2014 for $685K. Unexpanded cape with half-hearted updates. 141 DOM. tick, tick, tick…Won’t somebody PLEASE release these poor sellers from their yoke? I’m sure they are really nice people…
http://www.trulia.com/property/3134913994-62-Shunpike-Rd-Madison-NJ-07940
House is an investment. There are winners and losers. Location is everything, after that, a bunch of tangibles play into price. If you have the insight to realize that a ghetto street will become a wealthy street, you only need to buy one piece of land to pay for your retirement. Meaning, you can buy one house, the one you will live in till retirement, that will pay for your retirement. On the other hand, you could have bought your only house in a nice neighborhood that went downhill, and now your house cost you your retirement.
It’s as easy as that, to understand that a house is an investment. It’s like stocks, if you day trade, one day you will get killed. Hold long, and think long, and you can win. Flip houses and you will eat it sooner or later. Think long term with real estate, and don’t concern yourself with today, and you should win, even if you bought in a high market. It’s all about making sure the long term value where you bought is going up, rather than down, imo.
The End Is Nigh (Wu Tang Edition):
Wu-Tang Clan-associated rapper cuts off pen!s, jumps off building in suicide try: report
Andre Johnson, who’s also known as Christ Bearer, was found in critical condition outside a North Hollywood, Calif., apartment building early Wednesday after taking a potentially fatal plunge, TMZ reported.
Rapper Andre Johnson, also known as Christ Bearer or Andre Roxx, allegedly attempted suicide after cutting off his own pen!s at a North Hollywood apartment early Wedneday morning.
Andre Johnson, who’s also known as Christ Bearer, was found in critical condition outside a North Hollywood, Calif., apartment building just before 1 a.m. Wednesday, TMZ reported.
Police confirmed to the Daily News that the victim was found with self inflicted injuries. They initially confirmed they were to his test!cles and pen!s before retracting that confirmation.
The artist’s neighbors, who were allegedly there when Johnson jumped, told TMZ that they were not on “any hard drugs that would cause him to do such a thing.”
Incredibly once he hit the pavement they said he got back up on his feet and began running around, albeit incoherently.
The Killa Beez, a Wu-Tang Clan associated performer, was rushed to Cedars-Sinai Medical Center.
It wasn’t immediately known if doctors were attempting to reattach his pen!s.
#74 “House is an investment.” or, a home. Location, Location, Location applies to both (Home or Investment).
If #1 – Despite the best research, there’s also alot of luck (though few will admit that) involved. BTW – For the most part, the preceding sentence does not apply to rental properties (there are though, unpredictable variables – though not as severe there, too).
My next house (soon purchasing) will be my ‘home’ until my body gives up the ghost.
Money isn’t everything, all the time. FYI – Don’t have any plans or knowledge of checking out anytime soon.
Made a boat load of bucks during the boom (buying and selling houses 1996-2003).
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
As far as getting into the landlord business… be handy/skilled in renovations and repairs or don’t even think about it. Multi-Family stuff in need of ‘light’ remodeling/restoration is still a good deal IF you have the balls (mostly ‘managing’ tenants) and some cash (not much) to take it on. Wish I had some more money right now.
chi (75)-
That has PCP written all over it.
Brother prolly had a big ass tax bill, too.
I was thinking it was dust too, maybe with a little bit of meth, just to take the edge off.
Clot – need to chat with you, let me know your availability
[75] chifi
When I saw that story today, I thought of you. But I was going to title it the Un-JJ Edition.
@NewYorkRedBulls: 57′ GOAL #RBNY! Alexander rolls it down the line to Miller, who cuts it into the box to Henry and the Frenchman puts it past MacMath! 1-0 NY
Wow, there are listings popping up like crazy. This is going to be an interesting couple of months.
@NewYorkRedBulls: 67′ GOAL #RBNY! Alexander gets to the endline and chips it in and @MrLloydSam is there to head it home! 2-0 NY! #NYvPHI
Fast Eddie, can’t say this is overpriced.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14-Vista-Trl-Wayne-NJ-07470/39797940_zpid/
That house is way overpriced.
Actually, it’s in Vizcaya on the mountain so maybe not terrible – totally lacking on the updates though, I’ve still seen better pricing, even with stellar views.
grim (80)-
Can talk late afternoon or early evening tomorrow. Out of town after that and back on Monday, if that’s better for you.
If anon is a fan, I hate the Dead Bulls even more now.
michael (85)-
Nice mid-’80s funeral home decor. Too bad people actually have to live in it.
Nothing says “welcome home” like beige tiles in the entryway.
Big plus to beige tiles is that vomit blends in well.
I’m not saying that it doesn’t need updates. It certainly does. Since no one really pays full price in nj, if you get this for 650,000 and put 100,000 into it, it will be worth 750,000, if you decide to sell. It’s a nice neighborhood, imo.
Housing recovery officially dead.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-16/housing-recovery-complete-bank-america-mortgage-originations-tumble-record-low
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