From the WSJ:
Lost Generation Casts Shadow Over Housing Market
President Barack Obama’s executive order Monday expanding student-debt relief is the latest sign policy makers recognize the serious economic burdens young adults face. But the modest change is unlikely to move the needle in ways that matter to investors.
The financial crisis exacted a heavy toll on the generation of Americans now entering their 30s. Facing difficult job prospects, little-to-no income growth and a historically unprecedented level of student loans, their finances are in a more precarious state than those of prior generations. That has cut into their ability to buy a first home, and is a major reason the housing recovery continues to disappoint.
Nor is the situation likely to improve. The possible results: Banks will see tepid demand for mortgages. Home sales and single-family home construction will be stuck below historic norms. Demand for goods like furniture and appliances, as well as services such as home repairs, will grow only slowly. And housing will continue to add less to the economy than in the past.
Start with the balance sheet of people in their 20s. Thanks to the expansion of the number of students attending college, and its rising cost, the share of 25-year-old Americans with student debt has grown to more than 44.7% last year from 25% in 2003, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The average amount of that debt expanded by 69.2% over that period.
Meanwhile, the drag from that debt on the ability of younger Americans to get a home loan has been growing. Before the crisis, the average credit score for people in their 20s and early 30s with student loans exceeded peers without such debt.
…
Together, these numbers mean it is more difficult for Americans to get a mortgage and make their initial home purchases. Ten years ago, 32% of those aged 27 to 30 years old had home loans. By last year, that had fallen to 21%. Homeownership rates for 25- to 34-year-olds have fallen from 49% in 2003 to 41.6% last year, according to the Commerce Department, steeper than the drop for older groups of Americans.What’s more, the median income for Americans aged 25 to 34 has advanced more slowly than incomes overall, and has fallen over the past decade, adjusting for inflation. As a result, the recent rise in home prices has made homes less affordable for them relative to other Americans, despite mortgage rates that are still low by historical standards.
Their travails could have knock-on effects. Since the housing ladder’s bottom rung is in bad repair, demand for homes—as well as mortgages, furniture and appliances—may remain depressed for some time. Current homeowners may have a tougher time selling in the future.
Got Demand?
Bystander,
Here are the ones I have no sympathy for:
-bagholders who HELOC’ed into oblivion and spent money on trips or putting a chef’s kitchen into a crummy ranch.
-old fools asking a bubble price while the grim reaper waits in their foyer.
-greedy kids whose parents are still warm in ground, asking top dollar for the rotting crypt.
-flippers who slapped paint on a home bought last year and now want 200k profit
I couldn’t have said it better and it deserves repeating! This is 99.9% of what I’ve seen in the last 2 years.
Anyone else see a few tie-ins between the student loan debt issue and the minimum wage issue?
The planets are aligning and there are tax planning opportunities here for business owners, especially those with kids.
And I see an entirely new level of employment class emerging from this.
Again, opportunities abound. At least until the Feds slap a band-aid on the bleeding.
@MMFlint: One of the good guys in Northern Michigan won’t wait to 2018, raises minimum wage now: http://t.co/B0pVRtcko8
[4] anon
What? You’re endorsing a free market, capitalistic decision?
Gary, I believe part of your issue with finding a home is that you are already happy where you are. Even though you would like to live in a larger home in a more desirable community there is nothing driving you to make that change.
My home search is being driven by the fact that my out of state landlord is not maintaining the house to my satisfaction. Two of my college age children are now living with me full time and small bedrooms, tiny closets and one bathroom are no longer sufficient.
Clearly need trumps desire when it comes to making such a significant life decision! Buyers feel they are over paying. Sellers feel they are giving away their home. It is an old established dance.
#3
I see a tie in between student loan debt and more wall st bailouts.
Yup. Want to fix the student debt / college tuition bubble?… make the debt dischargeable in bankruptcy like all other forms of debt. Poof, problem solved.
nwnj says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:08 am
#3
I see a tie in between student loan debt and more wall st bailouts.
What happens when demand for workers exceeds supply. No government intervention necessary.
http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2012_09_01_archive.html
anon (the good one) says:
June 10, 2014 at 7:18 am
@MMFlint: One of the good guys in Northern Michigan won’t wait to 2018, raises minimum wage now: http://t.co/B0pVRtcko8
Bystander – Let me guess, they bought a house in NC? Without actually having lived there for any appreciable amount of time?
You don’t have to answer, because I know they did.
New construction too, bet they got a sweet deal from the builder. If not new construction, than a nearly brand new house, previous occupants having been there no longer than 2-3 years.
Don’t bother letting me know they are miserable in 2 years, because they bought based on the house, and didn’t realize they aren’t in the right neighborhood, and their kids aren’t going to go to the right schools. This is the #1 complaint I hear, and I hear it very often. Folks are starstruck by new homes, buy the big 3000-4000sq foot home, but then realize they aren’t where their peers, colleagues, friends are. So then they sell that house, take a hit, and end up with a much more expensive, smaller house, in the “right” neighborhood. Most agents in this area can spot the sucker from the Northeast in a second, and sell them on the bling even quicker than that.
I’ve heard this story more than a dozen times from close acquaintances. Same story every time, first purchase was based on the house, second purchase was about being in the right place. Second purchase is always the painful one, just like here it’s a big jump because they want the nicer house *and* the nicer neighborhood, so they pay twice.
Desirable neighborhoods located near good schools and jobs in NC demand very high prices, very similar to this area. Cue Gary on the tax differential, but the truth of the matter is these areas have already “gentrified” and many of them didn’t see massive home price declines. So from a timing perspective, they’ve missed the boat and area again paying prime prices, don’t play this as if it were some sort of “sure thing”. In reality you are talking about going from the $750k house in the NY metro to the $500k house in the good suburbs of RD.
There is no student loan issue, only a stupid kid issue.
For instance last night talking to a guy who is middle management on wall street. He teaches parttime at fordham which is a good school.
His kid graduating HS wants to major in engineering, which Fordham does not have and instead is going to a private engineering college that will cost 60K a year and is taking out tons of loans. Meanwhile he could have gone to Fordham for free
Kid is an idiot as wtf does a 17 year old even know what he wants to do with life. Go to Fordham pick a major that pays well, get a free degree and a high paying job and if he does not like it go to gradshool at night for Engineering. Instead he racks up tons of debt for a degree he could have got for free and picks a major engineering which in the New York City area hardly any jobs.
He is saddled with debt and a lower income for next 20 years over this choice he made in his pimple popping HS days.
I agree it’s stupid to pass up the opportunity for a free ride to that school. However, if the young adult wants to pursue something else… it’s his choice/mistake. That said, if it wasn’t for the govt granting special privileges to student debt… the loans he’s going to get wouldn’t be available and the cost of college would be much less across the board.
Wealth effect
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101743657
A 17 year boy is like a decade away from being an young adult.
Plus good luck getting laid at an engneering school which is a sausuge fest and to boot all asians.
Guys dad works on wall street, got a free ride to a good business school, turning down being 25 and working a six figure job in Manhattan with no student loans for a five figure engneering job with six figure student loans.
Guess this is why the asians get ahead, no asian would be dumb enough to pass up a free ride at a good school
12.joyce says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:43 am
I agree it’s stupid to pass up the opportunity for a free ride to that school. However, if the young adult wants to pursue something else… it’s his choice/mistake. That said, if it wasn’t for the govt granting special privileges to student debt… the loans he’s going to get wouldn’t be available and the cost of college would be much less across the board.
To 30 yr realtor:
You are now synched with how Japanese parents feel with their herbivore males and parasite singles females.
In your honor:
http://youtu.be/gEmJ-VWPDM4
30 yr
I might be case and point. I’ve been on this site for 7 or 8 yrs while I’ve been renting, waiting, and looking for that perfect home. My landlord just informed me that he sold the house we’re in to someone who is going to occupy it. His ARM was going to reset this year so he had to unload the house. I will most certainly be compromising more than I wanted to, but it’s time.
As usual, JJ is right. If I were Dad, I’d tell Jr, if you want to go to Costa Plente U., it’ll cost you, not me.
#10 Grim
One of the thing many people don’t realize is, that the Giuliani/Bloomberg years acted as a massive sprinkler in spreading around the criminal/borderline criminal element that had resided in the 5 boroughs, not only to the suburbs/exoburbs, but also to other states up and down the east coast.
In NC, VA, & SC is thought by many that crime has gone up, because you got a lot of New Yorkers hiding from the law down there, as the locals don’t have the resources to pursue and keep track of them.
This is a big issue, that is also aggravated by the lack of economic growth nationwide, that affects a lot of areas outside of the metro-NY cocoon. Which in sad way helps promote all the pro-gun nuttery.
Assuming you’d stay on topic was of course too much to ask. So I’ll go to a new topic and well.
The job in Manhattan probably wouldn’t exist either without the govt… and if it did, it wouldn’t be very high paying.
JJ says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:51 am
… and working a six figure job in Manhattan
and well = as well
From the shell of a story we have to work with, that is exactly what is happening. Hence the taking out of loans.
“If I were Dad, I’d tell Jr, if you want to go to Costa Plente U., it’ll cost you, not me.”
30 year realtor [6],
You are right. If one isn’t being forced, then there’s no urgency. But at the same time, this is not a normal market and the effects of the bubble/crash have not been resolved in the least. There is no advancement and movement, no normalcy and nothing to indicate things are getting better. It’s a very ill housing market based on zero fundamentals. The FED needs to step out of the way and allow the weak to be consumed.
Detonate the bomb, clear the debris and start over. The inventory is nothing more than rotting sh1t or undesirable garbage. It’s not even so much the price. One should be able to see 3 or 4 decent, desirable houses to make a choice. I see some of these “sold” houses and wonder where the f.uck they came from and then I realize they were never made public. It was an exclusive listing privy to friends and relatives.
NJWeedman (Edward Forchion), running for congress in NJ’s 3rd congressional district, is emerging as a 3rd party candidate who might shake things up in that district. Democrats have filed a challenge to his candidacy yesterday, a move that would seem to show they are worried he would steal votes from the Democratic candidate.
http://nj1015.com/nj-weedman-discusses-his-nj-candidacy-audio/
Well, that’s a cheery thought . . .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101728464
re # 10 – “didn’t realize they aren’t in the right neighborhood”
Same holds true here in New Jersey in many towns. What might seem like a great deal on a new home, well it is in less desirable school district. My realtor told me he made a 40 + year career out of moving people from one side of the “train tracks” down here in Monmouth county to the other. That line is invisible, and not well documented. It zigs and zags through a few different neighborhoods. I have friends two miles away from me who are over the line, their kids will go to the less desirable high school if they don’t drive them to other more favorable school themselves. They had no idea when buying either, it pays to make a call to the school district like we did for each and every listing we were interested in. Meanwhile I am just over a mile from the desirable schools. Just over the 1 mile line is required to get busing. Each morning parents wait at the edge of our development as the school buses arrive, meanwhile a few blocks over parents have to drive their kids because there is no way little Ethan and Madison are going to walk or bike ride.
Funny when I was a kids in the boogie down we used to walk to to St. Ann’s on Bainbridge Avenue. No bus, no parents we all went to together as a neighborhood across Jerome ave. Biggest problem was the rival kids from Knox Place. They even called themselves a gang in the 1st grade.
Nom [24];
I like the graph caption: “The New Normal? Jobless Recovery”
Than can’t even phathom the possibility that the discrepancy is because their guy currently in the Oval is an abject failure.
8. Joyce,
Half of colleges would vaporize overnight if govt. money was not available for students to borrow. Govt money is a gift to these college corporations.
They are aware this money is going to be harder to get in the future. The tap is being turned off.
Where is this tumor going to get its next blood supply? It has been enjoying it’s meal, not going to give up easy…
Wait, there is an answer—charter schools. Direct pipeline to tax money.
Water always seeks it’s level.
Actually my job would be much high paying if it were not for the govt imposing rules and regulations on everyone that cost money.
Since they took away the three martini lunch, cocaine and handguns at work it has not has been as fun.
19.joyce says:
June 10, 2014 at 9:05 am
Assuming you’d stay on topic was of course too much to ask. So I’ll go to a new topic and well.
The job in Manhattan probably wouldn’t exist either without the govt… and if it did, it wouldn’t be very high paying.
JJ says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:51 am
… and working a six figure job in Manhattan
Our future robot overlords may not be polite as the Terminator was. Funny story about the IBM Watson computer. The story goes they had uploaded the urban dictionary to Watson and one time it responded to a query by saying bullshit and it also used other vulgar responses, so they had to purge it. If these machines are getting smarter it only is a matter of time before they start emulating the average person’s vocabulary which is only about 10,000 or so words.
Are hipsters Racist?
http://raniakhalek.com/2013/02/17/the-best-take-down-of-hipster-racism-you-will-ever-see/
10 yrs or so ago Wired magazine published an article by the guy who invented Linux or something big like that. it’s a classic with no BS or politics, outlines a couple of long term scenarios. gonna look for it and re-read it.
Juice Box says:
June 10, 2014 at 9:53 am
Our future robot overlords may not be polite as the Terminator was.
28
Name them…?
Would you like to repeal this onerous piece of legislation?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Act
One of the characteristics of teenagers and young adults is that their emotions are strong relative to their knowledge of the world, because many have problems deferring gratification or making hard choices with money. So it’s a really bad time in their life to be offered access to large amounts of debt. And the Return on Investment calculation can be quite difficult, given how variable the earning outcomes after college can be.
What the kid needs to do is a 20 year spreadsheet looking at all the alternatives. Free school, different career. Public (cheaper) school + engineering career. Private (expensive) school + engineering career with some guess about what career advantage one school would provide over the other. Then the kid can look at how much money he will have saved/owe in 10 years, and start tying that to questions like “could I afford to marry, have a reliable car, with the difference in the money I’d have?”
At least an engineering job typically pays decent right off the bat. The problem is that there tends to be a ceiling, and with a constant inflow of younger engineers, potential middle-age/late year decline. But at least it’s a career that has some shot at being able to service/surpass the loans.
My undergrad I took the low cost route because my family didn’t have money to send me to some expensive college, and I didn’t even know how to get into debt besides a few thousand in credit cards. So I lived at home, commuted to community college for 2 years, then 2 years of the closest state school to graduate. Being an introverted nerd with high standards, I didn’t have girlfriends to distract/cost money. So I spent more time studying. I wished that I was living on campus at Harvard, debating philosophy with pretty smart girls, but that would have been totally wasted on me, and possibly would have ruined my life.
SOX/AML/OFAC/SEC/CFTC/Fed/FINRA/OSHA it goes on and on. I dont need no stinkin rules
32.joyce says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:16 am
28
Name them…?
All I’m saying is that the writing was on the wall. It was his choice to buy. He should have rented. My advice now is to stop renting and buy. Find the best realtor in the location you are interested in and have some patience. You will find a deal. We are not in a bubble, prices will be stagnant before they start making their inevitable climb. Problem is, everyone is going to start jumping in when the inevitable climb comes. By then, it’s almost too late to buy. It’s not that people are stupid, it’s just that they will all be getting raises at the same time. When they all have extra cash, they all will be looking to buy. This is why real estate runs on cycles. Not the only reason, but the main reason.
Your friend is doing the opposite. He buys high, and sells low. No one wonder he is screwed. In order to make winners, there have to be losers. Losers, buy high, sell low. Winners buy high, sell low. They win because someone is losing like your friend. Every tem someone got a “great deal”, someone on the other end of the transaction got a “bad deal”.
Bystander says:
June 9, 2014 at 8:28 pm
Mike,
Says the real estate “investor” whose granny gave him instant equity. He was not greedy. Some people don’t have family members to help them out. They try to do right for their own family at the time it is needed..but I’ll let him know that he should have waited until 2012 to purchase. Any other investing wisdom now that the crash is over? Let me me guess, he should have gone all in on Apple in 2002.
35. Ragnar,
You hit the nail on the head. You should write a book on the subject.
Right on point, charter schools will be their new life line.
Phoenix says:
June 10, 2014 at 9:52 am
8. Joyce,
Half of colleges would vaporize overnight if govt. money was not available for students to borrow. Govt money is a gift to these college corporations.
They are aware this money is going to be harder to get in the future. The tap is being turned off.
Where is this tumor going to get its next blood supply? It has been enjoying it’s meal, not going to give up easy…
Wait, there is an answer—charter schools. Direct pipeline to tax money.
Water always seeks it’s level.
31 are you talking about Dennis Ritchie…the inventor of Unix?
30 year, well said. You describe it perfectly. The good ol’ “established dance”. People like fast Eddie complain about prices no matter what the market is. He has been complaining about the haughty towns he has been looking in for years. If he bought in one of those towns a couple years back, when he claimed they were overpriced, he could have sold already for a profit (including costs). He claims we are in an overpriced market, when we are not. We are not in a bubble. A bubble characteristic is a bunch of people flipping houses month to month. Clearly that’s not the case.
“Clearly need trumps desire when it comes to making such a significant life decision! Buyers feel they are over paying. Sellers feel they are giving away their home. It is an old established dance.”
So on point. You are the man!
grim says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:19 am
Bystander – Let me guess, they bought a house in NC? Without actually having lived there for any appreciable amount of time?
You don’t have to answer, because I know they did.
New construction too, bet they got a sweet deal from the builder. If not new construction, than a nearly brand new house, previous occupants having been there no longer than 2-3 years.
Don’t bother letting me know they are miserable in 2 years, because they bought based on the house, and didn’t realize they aren’t in the right neighborhood, and their kids aren’t going to go to the right schools. This is the #1 complaint I hear, and I hear it very often. Folks are starstruck by new homes, buy the big 3000-4000sq foot home, but then realize they aren’t where their peers, colleagues, friends are. So then they sell that house, take a hit, and end up with a much more expensive, smaller house, in the “right” neighborhood. Most agents in this area can spot the sucker from the Northeast in a second, and sell them on the bling even quicker than that.
I’ve heard this story more than a dozen times from close acquaintances. Same story every time, first purchase was based on the house, second purchase was about being in the right place. Second purchase is always the painful one, just like here it’s a big jump because they want the nicer house *and* the nicer neighborhood, so they pay twice.
Desirable neighborhoods located near good schools and jobs in NC demand very high prices, very similar to this area. Cue Gary on the tax differential, but the truth of the matter is these areas have already “gentrified” and many of them didn’t see massive home price declines. So from a timing perspective, they’ve missed the boat and area again paying prime prices, don’t play this as if it were some sort of “sure thing”. In reality you are talking about going from the $750k house in the NY metro to the $500k house in the good suburbs of RD.
old adults, in turn, got to put an end to the myth of meritocracy so that young adults can think hard as to how to go about it
Ragnar says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:21 am
One of the characteristics of teenagers and young adults is that their emotions are strong relative to their knowledge of the world
Well said!
Ragnar says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:21 am
One of the characteristics of teenagers and young adults is that their emotions are strong relative to their knowledge of the world, because many have problems deferring gratification or making hard choices with money. So it’s a really bad time in their life to be offered access to large amounts of debt. And the Return on Investment calculation can be quite difficult, given how variable the earning outcomes after college can be.
What the kid needs to do is a 20 year spreadsheet looking at all the alternatives. Free school, different career. Public (cheaper) school + engineering career. Private (expensive) school + engineering career with some guess about what career advantage one school would provide over the other. Then the kid can look at how much money he will have saved/owe in 10 years, and start tying that to questions like “could I afford to marry, have a reliable car, with the difference in the money I’d have?”
At least an engineering job typically pays decent right off the bat. The problem is that there tends to be a ceiling, and with a constant inflow of younger engineers, potential middle-age/late year decline. But at least it’s a career that has some shot at being able to service/surpass the loans.
My undergrad I took the low cost route because my family didn’t have money to send me to some expensive college, and I didn’t even know how to get into debt besides a few thousand in credit cards. So I lived at home, commuted to community college for 2 years, then 2 years of the closest state school to graduate. Being an introverted nerd with high standards, I didn’t have girlfriends to distract/cost money. So I spent more time studying. I wished that I was living on campus at Harvard, debating philosophy with pretty smart girls, but that would have been totally wasted on me, and possibly would have ruined my life.
no, it is actually Bill Joy, sun Microsystems
Street Justice says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:37 am
31 are you talking about Dennis Ritchie…the inventor of Unix?
Grim,
Generally I agree that they may be 20 years late in getting into an affordable, desirable area of Raleigh but they are feet on ground type. They are not building a new home. I am not privy to all details but I know thet are very specific to one school/neighborhood in Apex. I think her parents live in GA too. They have 3 kids, single income and want to travel around with kids. Obviously a decent home in Fairfield county was not achievable given these goals. We’ll see if they are miserable or not. His commute will be much better.
What’s interesting is how government distorts investment in both physical and human capital. Politicians are constantly talking about “investing in infrastructure” but because it’s government doing it, all they do is spend, rarely thinking about ROI. Thus we get expensive bridges to nowhere in some places, and no spending/investment in clearing key transport bottlenecks elsewhere, and always at a cost excess of what private investors would have demanded. Except in modern private railroads, and some toll roads, where there is clear calculation and prioritization of return on investment projects, guiding investment to its highest use, while trying to avoid wasted spending. “Investment” is a term that should be reserved for spending on useful assets. Spending money on unproductive assets should be considered consumption of the wasteful sort.
Similarly, with the government excessively involved in the building of human capital (i.e. education), it again focuses on politicized spending rather than achieving its highest return on investment. The government also thus creates “bridges to nowhere” in education. The government has helped parents and students forget what the purpose of education is in the first place: an investment in human capital that enables the young to become self-sustaining productive adults that can deal with reality. Instead, government has turned “education” into a consumption rather than investment item, divorced from its purpose. Would someone rationally judging whether an investment could be paid back by value created really spend $200k on a degree in Ethnic Studies or Art History or hundreds of other BS degrees? (I accept that for some rare individuals specialty degrees can make sense, but rarely on a mass-scale). These are “bridges to nowhere” that flourish with government support and distortions. For most pursuing such studies this “investment” is actually consumption, akin to a vacation from hard choices required to promote their life longer term. Afterwards, those who borrowed to finance these educational bridges to nowhere often seek government bailouts or government subsidies, and suffer from knowing that they wasted or misdirected some key years of their life as well as significant capital.
Regulators wreck Uber innovation: Column
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/06/09/uber-lyft-taxi-transportation-regulators-column/10198131/
Consumers typically pay very little attention to taxi and limo regulations while the regulated industries, unsurprisingly, pay very close attention. They express their gratitude in a variety of ways, some legal, and the regulators in turn look after the interests of the regulated. Consumer well-being is a far less significant concern.
In the world of Administrative Law, this phenomenon is known as “regulatory capture.” Set up a government agency to regulate an industry, and in short order it will wind up regulating on behalf of that industry. (One example is the District of Columbia Taxicab Commission, which has been doing its best to block ride-sharing services.) Look at almost any established regulatory regime, and the regulatory environment will tend to favor entrenched companies over new entrants. This is no accident.
And when new competition shows up? That’s when the regulators ride to the rescue. Austin, Texas, is impounding cars of drivers for ride-sharing services. The DMV of Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s Virginia is also trying to ban Uber and Lyft.
Regulators — and the industries they protect — will try to tell you that all this regulation is in service of consumer protection. Why, if you use an unlicensed, unregulated car service, you might be robbed, raped or overcharged! As if those kinds of things never happen in ordinary cabs or limos. (Actually, I think services like Uber and Lyft are actually safer, since they keep a clear record of when, where, and by whom riders are picked up, and track the cars involved.)
Michael,
It’s almost on a daily basis that I have to explain this to you and I’m beginning to think that you have a learning capacity problem. One more time: I’m not spending 600K plus on someone’s dank, p1ss-smelling, dirty f.ucking house just because they came up with a price that they desire. Show me the pocket listings, the exclusives and the private deals. I refuse to compete with the puppet masses for someone’s sh1thole. Let them compromise and fall for the bullsh1t sales pitch, I am not doing it. Do you get it yet?
“@MMFlint: One of the good guys in Northern Michigan won’t wait to 2018, raises minimum wage now: http://t.co/B0pVRtcko8”
Shorts is very successful and expanding. It’s a good thing the craft beer industry can support it. I only hope that the fast food industry doesn’t lay that many people off to replace them with Kiosks as the profit margin most likely does not support it.
All hail market manipulation!!! Krugman would be so proud of you.
The first time a Dahmer type gets behind the wheel of an Uber vehicle and that business model will be finished. It will be back to the black market.
Grim,
Your NC theory sounds a lot like the Poconos stories I’ve witnessed and heard. People are enamored by the space, low taxes, low costs and buy homes there virtually sight unseen. Heck, the builders even push for loan defaults as they can get more suckers in there sooner. Everyone I know who moved their has moved back. Most say it is like moving to Staten Island from Jersey. Complete ghetto neighbors, high crime, tons of traffic and terrible schools. Plus hicks!
Lot’s of people I work with made the move after the tech bubble burst. None still live there. And to think they would survive that commute. Funny, most said the train to Penn would be running soon. I laughed my ass off.
“the loans he’s going to get wouldn’t be available and the cost of college would be much less across the board.”
All hail market manipulation!
Hmmm…
http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30215-christopher-whalen-are-us-home-prices-falling
[51] stu
Yeah, I don’t know a single sane person who thought that the Pennsy train would ever happen.
Eddie,
I found that houses generally started looking more attractive over the $900k price line. Also generally slower-moving, as they are generally less mass-market. Bankrate says you only need household income of $180k/yr with a 30 yr, 4% mortgage to afford a house of $900k.
Lets examine today’s “dance”:
-I save up for several months to buy a ticket..but town govt decides to give away tickets for free, at last minute to get more yocals.
-The town also decides to limit female attendance so a few get all the attention
-I had my sights set up Emmy Lou, the pretty girl alone in the corner..but now every “free ticketed” Cletus is after her.
-Bessie Mae and her 12 siste the buck-toothed, town trolop now feels as pretty as Emmy Lou b/c men are getting desperate for a dance.
I ain’t dancin with Bessie Mae until the Cletuses
Oops..until the Cletuses have left the barn and Bessie Mae asks me Sadie Hawkins style. If the buck-teeth can be fixed and her troloping days are over then a weddin’ may be had.
As a former S.I’er..I enjoy the broad generalizations that I get to read each day here! LOL!
Half of those regulations create HUGE amounts of work for other parts of the financial industry while having zero real risk of consequences for compliance failure (hello Sarbanes Oxley!)… the SEC protects the financial industry from any real justice (it’s only civil)… and the FED showers money to it’s members.
child
JJ says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:28 am
SOX/AML/OFAC/SEC/CFTC/Fed/FINRA/OSHA it goes on and on
Condo,
My wife is from SI. Every day she asks when are going to replace our front lawn with pavers?
And most of the stated property taxes don’t include the school portion. It’s a seperate (and large) bill.
Libturd in Union says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:22 am
Re: Poconos and property taxes
On neighborhoods…
One year I was at the local polling place on election day, and in walk a couple to vote, who were unsure of district # as new residents. The volunteer tried to help, asking the name of their neighborhood. They had no answer, they didn’t even know the the name of their neighborhood (the price of one neighborhood to the next varies in price to well over $100K).
The largest investment of their lives, and they had no idea what they just purchased.
“600K plus on someone’s dank, p1ss-smelling, dirty f.ucking house”
These are the best houses. That’s the smell of money. Some cleanup, some paint, some light renovation work, and you have an $800K house.
Our GR house smelled of roasted broccoli.
#60..really? From where? Eltingville here….
re: # 63 – It’s been a year and I have finally stopped finding lumps of dog hair in strange places. A full year of cleaning, painted the whole interior including my attached two car garage, and some light renovation work like new baseboard and fixing a few rough spots and no more smells or hair from FIDO.
@CNBC: 2 big myths about the value of financial advisors: http://t.co/TiBVzNXaof (via @ricedelman) #xfinance
“That’s because you don’t need an advisor for either reason. Thanks to innovative technologies, decades of economic research and a society that is far more complex than those experienced by prior generations, the old value propositions offered by financial advisors simply no longer have any value.”
She’ll probably just respond here. That is, once she is done gelling her updoo while listening to the Wu-Tang on her Beats.
Lib, Condo;
I’m sensing a SI-refugee meetup brewing…
I long for roasted broccoli. I get a Yankee candle trying to mask moldy stank in the troll cavern labelled as a “finished basement”
The End Is Nigh (JJ AAA Roadside Assistance Edition):
Plan for three-way s3x in car goes awry after handbrake is accidentally released and vehicle hits tree.
Two nak3d women had to be cut out of the car and were seriously injured in the accident in Wenzhou, China. The man escaped unharmed.
This wasn’t the ride they were looking for.
Two nak3d women and one half-dressed man were about to embark on a passionate threesome in a car last week in Wenzhou, China, when one of the them accidentally released the handbrake and sent the vehicle rolling down a hill into a tree.
The nearly-nak3d man escaped unharmed, but the women were not so fortunate. They needed to be cut from the car by firemen and suffered serious injuries, according to reports. One of the women suffered two broken legs.
Gator was pretty young when her family followed in the perfunctory act of so many other SI Jewish families which requires settlement into Central Jersey. Marlboro is where she ended up, but lots of others ended up in Freehold, Manalapan, and East Brunswick. The lesser known Chinese takeout joint migration shortly followed. I heard of one family that took the wrong exit off the parkway and accidentally settled in South River. No one heard anything from them.
anone: Interesting that you didn’t volunteer this part…..
And on the investment topic, even Vanguard admits that advisors are worthwhile. It released a study earlier this year showing that financial advisors can increase their client’s net investment returns by 3 percent (not necessarily each year, as some opportunities are intermittent, such as market fluctuation). This is not achieved by picking good stocks, but by keeping nervous clients invested during periods of volatility. They do this by not selling low (something no Web-based algorithm can accomplish); creating effective asset-allocation models (just like websites do); steering clients away from expensive investments; and by helping their clients liquidate their accounts tax-efficiently during retirement.
Now think about all the other aspects of your life that involve money. Your advisor should be giving you advice about your mortgage, employee benefits, credit and debt, taxes, insurance and estate planning. Your advisor should handle all of your investment record-keeping and tax-reporting chores so you don’t have to.
anon (the good one) says:
June 10, 2014 at 12:34 pm
@CNBC: 2 big myths about the value of financial advisors: http://t.co/TiBVzNXaof (via @ricedelman) #xfinance
“That’s because you don’t need an advisor for either reason. Thanks to innovative technologies, decades of economic research and a society that is far more complex than those experienced by prior generations, the old value propositions offered by financial advisors simply no longer have any value.”
ChiFi…you are evil. Accept it. It’s better to live your life financially illiterate and expect the government will bail you out when you plead ignorance. Maybe Anon will try to sue Twitter?
[72] chifi
Why would anon need a financial advisor?
And if he gets his way, no one else will need one either.
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/06/chris_christie_should_blame_the_neo-luddites_for_the_mess_njs_in_mulshine.html#incart_river_default
So what’s the way out? The Trenton crowd has no idea.
The taxpayers do. It’s called Interstate 95 South.
My exes family lived in Bullshead. I spent 6 years going out to SI for Sunday dinner. I now have neck monitor set to explode if it detects that I have gone over Goethels again.
#65 1987 Condo – Great Kills! East Figurea between Armstrong and Cortelyou….went to PS 32 with Alyssa Milano and Ricky Schroeder….until Ricky hit it big in The Champ, moved to Connecticut and got all uppity about his SI roots.
My dad said we had to leave SI when everyone’s last name started ending in a vowel.
Lib 64 – Don’t forget the curry and the stale baguettes.
We used to drive out to Lynbrook from East Brunswick at least once per month when I was a kid. This drew us to the Outerbridge Crossing. Growing up, I thought Staten Island was pretty much the landfill for New York City. I remember when they called the landfill there Mount Koch.
“My dad said we had to leave SI when everyone’s last name started ending in a vowel.”
I could see him saying that.
We left when I was in third grade. By the time I was in seventh grade, half of my nursery school play group had joined us in the “country”. That’s what my folks used to call Monmouth County.
These are the best houses. That’s the smell of money. Some cleanup, some paint, some light renovation work, and you have an $800K house.
You forgot the f.ucked up layout, one 9×8 bedroom, one new bathroom (need to live with the 2nd one), the new kitchen, walnut paneling, a new roof, a new hot water heater and the Parkway running through your backyard. Some cleanup and light renovation… (cough).
You are not a serious buyer. You go to open houses to bitch. If you were a serious buyer, you would have got the best agent in the area you are looking for. This is for networking purposes. It will lead to the pocket listings. Do you actually put in any real offers, or do you drop unrealistic offers on the regular, hoping to find a sucker, like you claim these owners do with their asking price. You are doing the same thing, but on the buyers side, instead of seller’s side. I can’t imagine how difficult it would be to purchase a property from you. You would have to pay 10% more than asking, and throw in your first born to complete the deal. Your mindset is keeping you from purchasing real estate.
Fast Eddie says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:01 am
Michael,
It’s almost on a daily basis that I have to explain this to you and I’m beginning to think that you have a learning capacity problem. One more time: I’m not spending 600K plus on someone’s dank, p1ss-smelling, dirty f.ucking house just because they came up with a price that they desire. Show me the pocket listings, the exclusives and the private deals. I refuse to compete with the puppet masses for someone’s sh1thole. Let them compromise and fall for the bullsh1t sales pitch, I am not doing it. Do you get it yet?
Lol when my cousin moved to brick in 1988, there was nothing there. He was the only house. Now brick looks like clifton.
NJGator says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:16 pm
We left when I was in third grade. By the time I was in seventh grade, half of my nursery school play group had joined us in the “country”. That’s what my folks used to call Monmouth County.
Same old canard — environmental protection inhibits economic growth. Many studies have shown this to be false trade-off. Quality of life is a major factor for employers and employees in site selection. To follow Mr. Mulshine’s logic, let’s just keep chipping away at every green space because it can accommodate another facility or, more likely, home. Once that resource is gone, it’s gone forever. Yet to see a mall replaced by a farm. Not sure that future is economically desirable. I would hope for a more thoughtful analysis than rehashing simplistic pro-business rhetoric.
Street Justice says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:05 pm
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/06/chris_christie_should_blame_the_neo-luddites_for_the_mess_njs_in_mulshine.html#incart_river_default
So what’s the way out? The Trenton crowd has no idea.
The taxpayers do. It’s called Interstate 95 South.
Michael,
lol! I love the entertainment you provide!
Michael,
..and Rosie O’Donnell is selling her honeypot for $1 million. Using your logic, we are just not virile enough..
I love this line: “It will lead to the pocket listings.” LOL!
87- this is what our state’s millionaires should do. They should come together and invest their money. They should secretly buy up all of Newark real estate (if they do it secretly, should be able to get it cheap) and build a business super hub. That would help the state and at the same time, make a ton of money. Why not? There is no need to build on undeveloped land in nj. A bunch of land going to waste in prime locations in our urban settings.
The feeling is mutual. Lol
Fast Eddie says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:11 pm
Michael,
lol! I love the entertainment you provide!
How else are you going to get the pocket listings? You know family and friends in the location that you are looking?
Fast Eddie says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:15 pm
I love this line: “It will lead to the pocket listings.” LOL!
It’s funny. Montclair is trying to dig itself out of a giant debt hole by developing more high rises. They even chose the same developer who messed up royally on the mold trap named the Sienna to build two more phases. Less parking, a new hotel, more retail. Sounds like the beginning of the Hobokenization of Montclair. We’ll see what the $50-$70,000 per year property tax payers up on the hill think when their city views are blocked by a Marriott.
How about…stop growing government?
I see we’re back to copy/pasting random comments from other websites.
Michael says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:08 pm
Same old canard — environmental protection inhibits economic growth. Many studies have shown this to be false trade-off. Quality of life is a major factor for employers and employees in site selection. To follow Mr. Mulshine’s logic, let’s just keep chipping away at every green space because it can accommodate another facility or, more likely, home. Once that resource is gone, it’s gone forever. Yet to see a mall replaced by a farm. Not sure that future is economically desirable. I would hope for a more thoughtful analysis than rehashing simplistic pro-business rhetoric.
You think investors higher real estate agents for their knowledge or networking ability? You think those agents on those bravo shows about real estate in la and NYC got there on skill? They come from wealthy families, hence why they get to sell 20 million dollar properties. It’s networking. The agency picks them up because they know this kid’s grandmother is a millionaire, and this kid will get all the listings from his grandmother’s friends. This is how it works. Real estate is a networking game. Always has, always will be.
It’s a comment from the same article, sorry forgot the quotes. Lol you actually google all my posts to make sure they are my own?
joyce says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:21 pm
I see we’re back to copy/pasting random comments from other websites.
Michael says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:08 pm
Same old canard — environmental protection inhibits economic growth. Many studies have shown this to be false trade-off. Quality of life is a major factor for employers and employees in site selection. To follow Mr. Mulshine’s logic, let’s just keep chipping away at every green space because it can accommodate another facility or, more likely, home. Once that resource is gone, it’s gone forever. Yet to see a mall replaced by a farm. Not sure that future is economically desirable. I would hope for a more thoughtful analysis than rehashing simplistic pro-business rhetoric.
96- * hirer
How long before this is used at the shore?
http://www.wfla.com/story/25709314/alcohol-sensor-to-hit-tampa-bay-beaches#at_pco=smlwn-1.0&at_si=53920f1c6e8f9613&at_ab=per-3&at_pos=0&at_tot=1
There is new technology on the Bay area beaches that makes it easy for police to nab you if you sneak alcohol onto the beach. A tiny alcohol sensor with one swipe over your drink can pick up if you put a little extra kick in your cup.
“You can see that came up positive for alcohol and it beeps,” said Holmes Beach Police Chief Bill Tokajer.
Thanks to a “Click It or Ticket” grant, Holmes Beach Police now have detectors that electronically sniff out alcohol.
“We can go up top anything when you add the alcohol to the youth it doesn’t give you a more intelligent human being,” said Tokajer.
(well, when you give someone a costume, badge, and gun… it all but guarantees a more sadistic human being)
“It’s funny. Montclair is trying to dig itself out of a giant debt hole by developing more high rises. They even chose the same developer who messed up royally on the mold trap named the Sienna to build two more phases..”
Come on Lib, it’s not a mold trap, that water that percolates down the internal walls of the Sienna into the underground parking lot is a cascading and serene waterfall meant to give the residents a feeling of peacefullness and exclusivity ones expects from living over a coffee shop, gym, hair cutting place, cell phone store and a spa.
Yes, I do. Or I just read the article that Brian posted. I know crazy huh
Michael says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:24 pm
It’s a comment from the same article, sorry forgot the quotes. Lol you actually google all my posts to make sure they are my own?
[99] Joyce
And that flashlight the cop is holding as he scans inside your car and asks you questions, it’s a sensor too. These have been in use for years.
Michael,
How else are you going to get the pocket listings? You know family and friends in the location that you are looking?
The house I live in now for close to 14 years was a private transaction through friends of the family. Even in 2000, there were lines to get into open houses and you had to make an offer at that time because the house was sold that day. Houses were being sold sight unseen as well. No, I don’t have any friends or family in the places I’m looking. All the good stuff is already accounted for and the turd shit is presented to the masses. My only option is to send letters to homeowners.
I didn’t know, thanks. Whenever I get pulled over, which isn’t often, I barely crack the window. Hope that helps.
If that sensor picks up, or didn’t pickup, any reading … is that info disclosed during discovery?
Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:33 pm
[99] Joyce
And that flashlight the cop is holding as he scans inside your car and asks you questions, it’s a sensor too. These have been in use for years.
You just proved my point. Family and friends huh?
Fast Eddie says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:33 pm
Michael,
How else are you going to get the pocket listings? You know family and friends in the location that you are looking?
The house I live in now for close to 14 years was a private transaction through friends of the family. Even in 2000, there were lines to get into open houses and you had to make an offer at that time because the house was sold that day. Houses were being sold sight unseen as well. No, I don’t have any friends or family in the places I’m looking. All the good stuff is already accounted for and the turd shit is presented to the masses. My only option is to send letters to homeowners.
105- just do yourself a favor, and hire the best agent. Please don’t give them hell, or it won’t work. Don’t expect miracles overnight. That top agent will know every house before it is listed
Michael Dude,
Don’t you think if I had an inside track and knew somebody I would’ve have reached out to them by now? Proved your point? Why the f.uck do you think I told you it was friends of the family in the first place? And no, I didn’t get any discounts. And hire the best agent? Please, spare me that sh1t.
Learn how to play the game
Fast Eddie says:
June 10, 2014 at 3:04 pm
Michael Dude,
Don’t you think if I had an inside track and knew somebody I would’ve have reached out to them by now? Proved your point? Why the f.uck do you think I told you it was friends of the family in the first place? And no, I didn’t get any discounts. And hire the best agent? Please, spare me that sh1t.
107- you think good properties are just going to fall into your lap because the economy says so? You have to win the race, that means get there first by whatever means.
LOL! You are a scream!
Maybe I should “think outside the box” and “man up” too! lol!!
My grandmother had 6 kids. Each with grand children. Why was I so special? I wasn’t. I just knew I needed to put my money to work at a very young age. My friends all laughed when I was buying my first house. Saying that it’s annoying being a landlord, stocks are much better (remember late 90’s stock run). Glad I listened to myself, and wanted a rock hard income generating asset as my first large investment. Who is laughing now. Most of those people in stocks got taken out in 2001 or 2008. They sold in fear, and didn’t get the bounce back.
Rue McClanahan<Abe Vigoda
REdux [112];
Oops… old news.
@sfiegerman:
There have been 74 school shootings in the U.S. since Newtown.
Here’s a map of all of them: http://t.co/kh4kgg8PEX http://t.co/ZnPWsuKU6O
Bob Welch, Pitcher< Abe Vigoda
Fear Fears Me
111.Michael says:
June 10, 2014 at 3:13 pm
My grandmother had 6 kids. Each with grand children. Why was I so special? I wasn’t. I just knew I needed to put my money to work at a very young age. My friends all laughed when I was buying my first house. Saying that it’s annoying being a landlord, stocks are much better (remember late 90′s stock run). Glad I listened to myself, and wanted a rock hard income generating asset as my first large investment. Who is laughing now. Most of those people in stocks got taken out in 2001 or 2008. They sold in fear, and didn’t get the bounce back.
bye bye, cantor
Michael, you were special! Your Nana realized that you were the lone grandkid who was not only not going to college, you were not graduating HS either! She gave you her house figuring maybe you could fix leaky toilets and sinks and provide you your best shot of not living under a bridge. Apparently you’ve done well enough to even have internet access and a computer. We’re all proud. Good for you, Michael!
Michael says:
June 10, 2014 at 3:13 pm
My grandmother had 6 kids. Each with grand children. Why was I so special? I wasn’t. I just knew I needed to put my money to work at a very young age. My friends all laughed when I was buying my first house. Saying that it’s annoying being a landlord, stocks are much better (remember late 90′s stock run). Glad I listened to myself, and wanted a rock hard income generating asset as my first large investment. Who is laughing now. Most of those people in stocks got taken out in 2001 or 2008. They sold in fear, and didn’t get the bounce back.
NJ Weedman for clowngress!
Me likey the crunk juice.
bystander (56)-
On behalf of every Cletus in the world, I register my disappointment with your comments.
Some of my best cousins are named Cletus.
South gonna rise again, boy.
Can’t wait to see how fast Michael disappears from here once things start getting all 2007 again.
Which they will.
Eric Cantor is a piece of shit. Good riddance.
Turn out all the incumbents, then hang them in the public square.
“Turn out all the incumbents, then hang them in the public square.”
Turn out all the incumbents, then make them converse with Michael.