Firming up, or temporary blip?

From HousingWire:

FNC Residential Price Index shows home prices are firming up

Home prices are beginning to stabilize despite weaker-than-expected home sales in the recent months, according to FNC.

The FNC Residential Price Index, which does not include distressed properties, recorded a growth of 0.6% from March to April. According to FNC’s report, the index’s year-over-year change has moderated for a second consecutive month since February. FNC suggests that this is a sign that the annual rate of home price appreciation has peaked.

“Low interest rates and continued declines in home foreclosures contribute to the price gain amid weak housing activity and modest economic growth,” FNC’s report says.

FNC’s RPI is the mortgage industry’s first hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes. As a gauge of underlying home values, the RPI excludes final sales of REO and foreclosed homes, which are frequently sold with large price discounts, likely reflecting poor property conditions.

FNC’s RPI reports that May’s average asking price rose 2.3% from April and the month’s asking-price discount was 2.2%, down from April’s 2.4%.

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55 Responses to Firming up, or temporary blip?

  1. grim says:

    April 2014 – NY MSA

    MOM – 0.1%
    YOY – 5.7%
    Cumulative Recovery – 6.4%

  2. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’ve never really paid attention to the World Cup before, but after watching Germany-Portugal and US-Ghana, I’m all in.

    Tech note: Besides your usual WC media outlets, Univision is broadcasting all 1st and 2nd round games and their iPad app (Univision Deportes) is ridiculously great! The funny think is I was going to show my wife some clips late last night but the app turns into a wall of Coca-Cola themed soccer videos at a certain time at night. This morning it’s back to normal. I think I might be fluent in Spanish in a couple weeks.

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    there you go. who said you can’t teach an old dog new tricks?

  4. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Ever since I read the article the other day by the 22 year old girl who proclaimed baby boomers will never sell their homes because they love them so much, I’m thinking housingwire.com is just mainstream malarkey.

  5. Grim says:

    Didn’t she just rewrite a Fannie Mae press release? I doubt that was her own opinion.

  6. Street Justice says:

    Charles C. Johnson ‏@ChuckCJohnson
    America’s success at soccer seems to correlate with growing acceptance of homosexuality. Coincidence? I think not. #USAvGHA

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    FNC’s RPI is the mortgage industry’s first hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes.

    It’s all bullsh1t. It’s the “flavor” the industry chooses to offer just like the garbage on the MLS sites. Lotsa f.ucked mortgage holders on bad financial decisions and no answers on how to squeeze the muppet sows for more money.

    I receive listings daily and it’s the same dated bullsh1t at peak price. Have you seen your cable and cell phone bills lately? Have you noticed all these surcharges and fees and other nip and tuck financial shenanigans? It’s designed so you don’t take notice. What? There’s a lawn care expense? How much is the car registration? Didn’t we just pay the water/sewer bill? Oh yeah, I forgot about that credit card charge. D.amn! How much is that car repair? But, I’m still making payments on the thing! Oh, did you notice the water around the water heater last night?

    Look at real salary increase and that will give you the actual barometer on the health of the economy and your ability to absorb the hits.

    Again, I have friends in the recruiting industry for corporate managers and high end roles and they tell me the pay scale is the same now as in the late 90s. Believe otherwise and I have a bike lane to sell you.

  8. Ragnar says:

    I think boomers paying 25% of their retirement income for property taxes will find a reason to sell their NJ homes and move to more hospitable climates.
    They will also eventually die, so maybe I can buy my retirement home from a cash-poor heir of a boomer.
    What years should be the peak of boomers buying retirement homes? Has it already passed?

  9. Michael says:

    moose- this one is for you. Describes the locust generation to a T.

    Life has been good for you. You’re a baby boomer. You were born between 1946 and the early 1960’s. You had Woodstock and the Stones in the ’60s, discos and coke in the ’70s, Wall Street in the ’80s, Bill Clinton in the ’90s and now you’re retiring to Arizona and Florida on the backs of your stressed-out kids whose own children stay at home with them into their 20s because they have no jobs. Tom Brokaw once wrote a book about the greatest generation, those brave people who survived the depression and fought in World War II. Unfortunately that great generation spawned a generation of narcissists: the baby boomers.

    http://www.phillymag.com/news/2013/12/13/baby-boomers-worst-generation/

  10. Michael says:

    9- A big thank you!!

    “We’re scrambling to fix the environment because of their excesses. For years, and despite warnings, the boomers refused to recycle and ran companies that spewed ozone-destroying chemicals into the air. There are countless plots of land that are unusable because of chemicals and pesticides dumped by this generation. I’m no environmentalist, but even I have to shake my head at the destruction laid upon the planet over the past 40 years alone: decimated forests, extinct species, smog filled skies, islands of plastic floating in the ocean. Only recently are steps being taken by younger generations to attempt to reverse this trend.

    The good news is that the baby boomer generation is quickly getting older. Ten thousand boomers are retiring each day. We can’t ship them all off to an island, unfortunately. But I’m optimistic that the next generation of leaders will not make the same mistakes. Governments will take care of people who are truly needy — not just because they turned 65 and have a car payment — and this will help fix our deficit problems. Racism will continue to decline as the world becomes smaller and more social. Our environment will improve because kids in elementary school are being taught to care about the planet. Ultimately, these generations will fix the problems that the boomers created. And we can soon bid farewell to that horrible generation.”

  11. chicagofinance says:

    from Stephens WSJ
    “Mr. Obama’s method is to ignore a crisis for as long as possible, give a speech, impose a sanction, and switch the subject to climate change or income inequality.”

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    chicagofinance [11],

    You forgot to mention “suggesting diversity training” to the two sides fighting a civil war in Iraq.

  13. All Hype says:

    Gary (12):

    Obama is good at the following:
    1. Campaigning
    2. Bullying Rebuplicans
    3. Getting a crappy healthcare bill passed with zero republican support
    4. Tackling climate change to the disamy of the coal industry.
    5. Opening his mouth and give de facto approval for an invasion from central america

    The worst part of it is Putin knows he is totally incompetent president so all he needs to do is sit back and watch Obama make blunder after blunder.

    Disclaimer: I am politically moderate

  14. Painhrtz - from Sabbatical says:

    Street why address the problem, obviously it is just a Howell issue.

  15. phoenix says:

    For Michael

    I listened to Christie on 101.5 yesterday’s “Ask the Governor” show. An old retired guy called, he was in his early 60’s. His Q to the gov was about the pension plan. Gov told him don’t worry, you will die before your check does not cash. He also told him he was getting MASSIVELY MORE BENNIES then he put in, and that he should be grateful for getting more than he paid in. Basically the younger people will take the brunt of the hit as the fund is not being filled, but the rate of draw down will accelerate. The older generation will complain about their property tax, Medicare copays, etc even though they are receiving way more than the younger folk will receive. Then they sit in IHOP for the discounted pancakes and complain about the younger ones texting. By the way how much do we spend on Silver Alerts anyway?

  16. Michael says:

    Well said. You hit this older generation to a T. They seriously just love complaining. I love when they start attacking the younger generation as lazy and useless, maybe they should look in the mirror.

    The best is when they complain about property taxes. Their answer to lowering taxes, cut schools. Typical, self preservation plight. F everyone else, I don’t use it, so I don’t want to pay for it. Meanwhile cut school funding, let these kids turn into criminals, and then watch the senior citizens complain as they get robbed in the street. They will request more police be hired to help protect them from droves of uneducated youth. The result will be, same taxes, yet society is now fuc!ked. These old timers need to shut the f up. You can’t afford taxes, then sell your house and rent. Just shut up please.

    phoenix says:
    June 17, 2014 at 12:33 pm
    For Michael

    I listened to Christie on 101.5 yesterday’s “Ask the Governor” show. An old retired guy called, he was in his early 60′s. His Q to the gov was about the pension plan. Gov told him don’t worry, you will die before your check does not cash. He also told him he was getting MASSIVELY MORE BENNIES then he put in, and that he should be grateful for getting more than he paid in. Basically the younger people will take the brunt of the hit as the fund is not being filled, but the rate of draw down will accelerate. The older generation will complain about their property tax, Medicare copays, etc even though they are receiving way more than the younger folk will receive. Then they sit in IHOP for the discounted pancakes and complain about the younger ones texting. By the way how much do we spend on Silver Alerts anyway?

  17. Street Justice says:

    Not that anyone listening in the Legislature cared….but…..

    http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2014/06/republican_state_senator_slams_jersey_city_on_tax_abatements.html#incart_river_default

    One of the state Senate’s most conservative members slammed Jersey City’s tax abatement process during yesterday’s confirmation hearing for Chief Justice Stuart Rabner, according to a report in the Star-Ledger.
    Sen. Michael Doherty, R-Washington, told Rabner he should have more “intellectual curiosity” when it comes to school financing, referring to the Abbott v. Burke cases that have diverted billions to the state’s neediest students.

    Doherty said the decisions in those cases have left the state’s finances in disrepair.

    Doherty cited the millions Jersey City has lost in tax revenue by awarding long-term tax breaks while its school district accepts state school funding, this year to the tune of $418 million.

    “That’s $130 million that Jersey City could be collecting for local schools that they decided to forgo,” Doherty said, according to the Star-Ledger’s report.

    “What I’m saying, Mr. Chief Justice, is that this has got to stop,” Doherty added. “It’s the Wild West out there. There’s no control.”

    Mayor Steve Fulop, a Democrat, has argued that the city’s new tax abatement policy encourages development in underdeveloped portions of the city. Just last week, the City Council gave initial OK to a 20-year tax break for a Hyatt House planned for the city’s Waterfront.

    Doherty criticized Fulop last year when Fulop said he would sue the Port Authority for causing “undue economic harm” by not paying taxes on many of the properties it owns in Jersey City. Fulop seeks $400 million in the suit.

    “Jersey City wants everyone other than its own residents to pay the city’s bills,” Doherty told The Jersey Journal in November.

    Fulop in turn criticized Doherty for having “a track record of defending this bloated government agency.”

  18. nwnj says:

    I really like this Doherty guy, he hammered Christie over his supreme court nominees too. It’s nice that someone is continuing the fight against machine politics now that Christie has acquiesced.

  19. Painhrtz - from Sabbatical says:

    NW unfortunately Doherty is a voice in the wilderness

  20. Statler Waldorf says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/15/realestate/the-money-pit-movie-mansion-for-sale.html

    The Long Island mansion used for “The Money Pit,” the 1986 comedy starring Tom Hanks and Shelley Long about the ultimate fixer-upper fiasco, is poised to go on the market for $12.5 million. The annual property taxes on the home are $65,992.

    The eight-bedroom 1898 house in Lattingtown, N.Y., has been totally redone, meticulously designed and decorated with a Versace-esque flair. The three-story white clapboard home has a center hall and is reached through a gated entrance and down a quarter-mile-long rhododendron-lined drive to a white-pebble motor court. “It’s now the anti-‘Money Pit,’ ” said Shawn Elliott of Shawn Elliott Luxury Homes & Estates, the listing broker. “The home was restored at the highest quality.”

  21. Michael says:

    “I teach. I have done so for over 35 years. Frankly, I have seen all the know-it-all politicians, textbook publishers and educational reformers come and go. (…and most of them have benefited in being critical of a system that is not that flawed) Very few adults in our society who are not educators ever spend much time in a school, so I find it curious that there is such a strong public opinion that the public education system needs such dramatic overhaul….at great expense to the taxpayers, I might add. Other than for a photo op, when was last time our Governor actually witnessed a lesson being taught? How many textbook authors have actually been in a classroom of students? The entire situation is beyond ridiculous

    In ten years, there will be a staggering shortage of quality teachers in our state, as potential candidates will avoid the profession in droves. Only then will people wake up as the system truly DOES crumble around them.”

    http://www.nj.com/education/2014/06/nj_raises_standards_on_teacher_prep_programs_and_certification_requirements.html#incart_m-rpt-1

  22. Michael says:

    22- I’m trying to comment on this, but this filter sucks. I don’t even know what is triggering it. It’s all common words, that I have used before.

  23. Anon E. Moose says:

    Price Index for Meats, Poultry, Fish & Eggs Rockets to All-Time High

    I suppose its a good thing none of this gets counted as “inflation”, right?

  24. Theo says:

    Just eat pasta and lentils.

  25. Pay your taxes boomer b!tches says:

    Wealthy Clintons Use Trusts to Limit Estate Tax They Back
    By Richard Rubin Jun 17, 2014 12:00 AM ET

    June 17 (Bloomberg) — Bill and Hillary Clinton have long supported an estate tax to prevent the U.S. from being dominated by inherited wealth. That doesn’t mean they want to pay it. Bloomberg’s Richard Rubin and Al Hunt speak on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Bill and Hillary Clinton have long supported an estate tax to prevent the U.S. from being dominated by inherited wealth. That doesn’t mean they want to pay it.

    To reduce the tax pinch, the Clintons are using financial planning strategies befitting the top 1 percent of U.S. households in wealth. These moves, common among multimillionaires, will help shield some of their estate from the tax that now tops out at 40 percent of assets upon death.

    The Clintons created residence trusts in 2010 and shifted ownership of their New York house into them in 2011, according to federal financial disclosures and local property records.

    Among the tax advantages of such trusts is that any appreciation in the house’s value can happen outside their taxable estate. The move could save the Clintons hundreds of thousands of dollars in estate taxes, said David Scott Sloan, a partner at Holland & Knight LLP in Boston.

    “The goal is really be thoughtful and try to build up the nontaxable estate, and that’s really what this is,” Sloan said. “You’re creating things that are going to be on the nontaxable side of the balance sheet when they die.”

    The Clintons’ finances are receiving attention as Hillary Clinton tours the country promoting her book, “Hard Choices.” She said in an interview on ABC television that the couple was “dead broke” and in debt when they left the White House in early 2001. After being criticized for her comments, she told ABC’s “Good Morning America” that she understood the financial struggles of Americans.

    Having lost the Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton is now deciding whether to run again in 2016.

    In her last campaign, Clinton supported making wealthier people pay more estate tax by capping the per-person exemption at $3.5 million and setting the top rate at 45 percent, a policy Obama still supports. Congress decided to go in the other direction and Obama went along as part of a broader compromise. The per-person exemption is now $5.34 million.

    “The estate tax has been historically part of our very fundamental belief that we should have a meritocracy,” Hillary Clinton said at a December 2007 appearance with billionaire investor Warren Buffett, who supports estate taxes and is using charitable donations to reduce his eventual bill.

    Without the estate tax, Hillary Clinton said, the country could become “dominated by inherited wealth.”

    Nick Merrill, a spokesman for Hillary Clinton, said in an e-mail that the couple’s finances are an “open book.” He didn’t answer additional questions about their finances or her current views on the estate tax.

    Two estate-planning advisers are listed on the Westchester County documents, Linda Hirschson of Greenberg Traurig LLP in New York and Rorrie Gregorio of Marcum LLP in New York. Both specialize in estate and tax planning for high net-worth families; neither returned a call for comment.

    The Clintons have consistently supported higher taxes on the income and estates of the wealthiest Americans, even as their paid speeches and book royalties moved them into the echelons of the nation’s top earners over the past decade.

    At the end of 2012, the Clintons were worth $5.2 million to $25.5 million, according to financial disclosures that Hillary Clinton filed in 2013 as she was leaving her position as secretary of state.

    That total excludes the value of their homes in Washington and in Chappaqua, New York, any savings since 2012 and gifts already made to their daughter, Chelsea, who is expecting their first grandchild later this year.

    Under federal disclosure rules for administration officials, the Clintons provided their net worth in a broad range. Most of the assets reported were in a single cash account at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) that held between $5 million and $25 million. As of 2010, they had two JPMorgan accounts, indicating a net worth of as much as $50 million.

    Since she left the government last year, Hillary Clinton, 66, has been giving speeches for hundreds of thousands of dollars each. Bill Clinton, 67, also makes paid speeches and appearances, receiving $200,000 each in October 2012 from Vanguard Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, according to Hillary Clinton’s disclosures.

    As president in 2000, Bill Clinton vetoed a proposal to repeal the estate tax, though he backed less significant changes to cushion family-owned businesses and farms against the potential effects of the tax.

    “If you’re serious about wanting to deal with the problems that estate tax presents, let’s get after it and solve them,” he said on Aug. 31, 2000. “But we have to proceed on grounds of fiscal responsibility and fairness.”

    His successor, George W. Bush, signed a law that narrowed the estate tax and eliminated it for 2010 only. That law was set to expire on Dec. 31, 2010. Unless Congress acted, the rate was scheduled to rise and the exemption was scheduled to drop.

    At the end of 2010, Congress set the lifetime exemption from the gift tax for each individual at $5 million, up from $1 million. Lawmakers also unified that exemption with the estate tax, so that gifts made while alive counted toward the estate-tax exemption at death.

    Those rules were scheduled to expire at the end of 2012, offering what looked like a one-time chance to use up the exemption with gifts — even if tax policy later swung in the other direction.
    Into Trusts

    In 2011 and 2012, many high-net-worth families moved money out of estates and into trusts to take advantage of the more favorable rules.

    U.S. taxpayers reported making $122 billion in nontaxable gifts on the returns they filed in 2012, more than four times the amount in each of the two previous years, according to the Internal Revenue Service.

    In January 2013, Congress removed the expiration date from the higher exemption and kept indexing it for inflation. It is now $5.34 million per person and $10.68 million per married couple. Just 3,700 estates will owe estate taxes this year, equaling 0.14 percent of people who will die, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington.

    By making gifts during their lifetime, people take advantage of their estate-tax exemptions in an orderly way, using techniques to stuff as many assets as possible into the nontaxable portion of the estate.

    That appears to be what the Clintons did, Sloan said, using a structure known as a qualified personal residence trust that allows them to discount the value of their house for estate tax purposes.

    ‘Reduce’ Value

    “You try to do things that can reduce the value of what you’ve given,” he said.

    According to county property records, the Clintons split their ownership of the house into separate 50 percent shares, and then placed those shares into trusts.

    That maneuver has multiple potential benefits, starting with the fact that any appreciation in the house’s value will now happen outside the estate.

    Additionally, using IRS interest rates, they can assume a discounted value for the house. Splitting the property into 50 percent shares also allows a valuation discount, because a partial interest in an indivisible house isn’t worth as much as a complete interest.
    Tax Returns

    It’s impossible to know what value the Clintons claimed for the house without seeing their gift-tax return. They last released tax returns during Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

    They bought the house for $1.7 million in 1999. Its estimated value for local property tax purposes is $1.8 million. Their house in Washington is valued at $5 million for local tax purposes.

    Residence trusts have a set term after which the property is transferred to a beneficiary. Following that, the Clintons could pay rent to the new owner to continue living in the house, which is another way to move assets outside of the estate.

    For the asset to move completely outside the estate, the Clintons would have to outlive the term of the trust. Such trusts typically last for 10 to 15 years to maximize the discount applied to the property’s value.

    Creating two separate trusts allows the Clintons to spread risk. They can set different lengths for each trust and if one of them dies, the other’s trust wouldn’t be affected.

    Also in 2010, the Clintons created a life insurance trust. That can help defray the cost of estate taxes, Sloan said. They have had a separate life insurance trust since 1996, according to the disclosure records.

    These moves are “pretty standard” planning for people who know they will be subject to the estate tax, said Ken Brier, an estate tax lawyer in Needham, Massachusetts.

    “If you’re the Clintons and you live in a fishbowl,” he said, “you’re not going to push the envelope in doing cutting-edge planning.”

  26. Michael says:

    lol I agree. I don’t know why you guys laugh at me when I state that wage inflation is coming. Are you expecting deflation? How else do you expect consumers to keep paying more? It eventually hits a road block, where you either have to lower prices or pay the workers more. The govt’s biggest war is against deflation, so I do not expect it to come. I think the odds are much more in favor of wage inflation.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    June 17, 2014 at 2:28 pm
    Price Index for Meats, Poultry, Fish & Eggs Rockets to All-Time High

    I suppose its a good thing none of this gets counted as “inflation”, right?

  27. Michael says:

    26- This is what everyone does. They know that taxes support our society, but nobody wants to pay. Imagine if everyone just payed what they are supposed to. We wouldn’t have a problem. Ask greece about people trying to avoid taxes and not pay them. It ends well.

  28. Anon E. Moose says:

    Michael [27];

    Wage inflation cannot happen so long as efforts to globalize the labor market continue apace — either through continued off-shoring of work, or importing of semi-slave laborers. The net effect will be to drive down standards of living with wages. Inflation is solely a function of government monetary policy, not a market function.

  29. Anon E. Moose says:

    This must be why we haven’t heard from Nom yet today; too busy with his work.

    Record Numbers of Americans Are Renouncing Their U.S. Citizenship

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Michael,

    I don’t know why you guys laugh at me when I state that wage inflation is coming.

    Sorry, it isn’t going to happen anytime soon. You’ll see a revolution and uprising before substantial wage increases occur. I’ll tell you again: wage scales are the same now as they were in the late 90s.

  31. Painhrtz - from Sabbatical says:

    I would do bad things to SE Cupp as long as we agreed that she did not talk.

  32. Michael says:

    How can prices rise keep rising if wages can’t keep up. You get either deflation on the price of goods, or wage inflation to keep up with the inflationary rise in the price of goods. Right? How can prices continue to rise with no wage inflation?

    Fast Eddie, the true value of wages have not increased, but wage inflation has indeed happened since the 90’s. Min wage was 3 something going into the 90’s. 50,000 a year was huge going into 1990. That 50,000 a year job is now 6 figures. There is no way there has not been wage inflation since the 90’s. Problem is, inflation has been higher than wage inflation. So now you need 100,000 to maintain the same lifestyle as 50,000 provided in 1990. This is why old timers flip when they see someone making 70,000 or 80,000. In their minds that is a lot of money.

  33. grim says:

    Right? How can prices continue to rise with no wage inflation?

    They can, and the end result is a lower standard of living.

  34. joyce says:

    22-23

    “and most of them have benefited in being critical of a system that is not that flawed”

    In ten years … as the system truly DOES crumble around them.”

  35. joyce says:

    Yup, a Govt/FED/banking policy

    Anon E. Moose says:
    June 17, 2014 at 2:44 pm
    Michael [27];

    Wage inflation cannot happen so long as efforts to globalize the labor market continue apace — either through continued off-shoring of work, or importing of semi-slave laborers. The net effect will be to drive down standards of living with wages. Inflation is solely a function of government monetary policy, not a market function.

  36. joyce says:

    They can, they will… and they have been doing EXACTLY that for a decade plus

    grim says:
    June 17, 2014 at 4:22 pm
    Right? How can prices continue to rise with no wage inflation?

    They can, and the end result is a lower standard of living.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    Michael,

    There is no way there has not been wage inflation since the 90′s.

    I’ll say it again: I have friends and family who recruit mid and high level managers and they have told me wages are at the same level (NOT INFLATION ADJUSTED) as the late 90s.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [31] moose

    Old news. NJRER readers knew this weeks ago.

  39. Michael says:

    How low can the standard of living go before people riot or resort to crime? Honestly, this scares the hell out of me. Another decade of rising prices with no increase in the buyers revenue stream has to mean FUBAR for our economy. Am I missing something?

    grim says:
    June 17, 2014 at 4:22 pm
    Right? How can prices continue to rise with no wage inflation?

    They can, and the end result is a lower standard of living.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [31] moose

    I remember asking Shulman about the voluntary disclosure program and it’s shortfalls. He was irked by the question because it was off topic. He did tell us that a new program was forthcoming. Then he abruptly closed questions.

    The new program was no better and didn’t address the aspect I asked about.

    I hope they find something, anything in Lerners hard drive to indict that putz.

  41. phoenix says:

    33. Pain

    Is S.E. Cupp the same as C cup?
    I would do bad things to SE Cupp as long as we agreed that she did not talk.

  42. 5gGCDc Thank you ever so for you blog.Much thanks again. Awesome.

  43. Michael says:

    “While low inflation (or even deflation, or falling prices) can be great in the right circumstances (since it can increase living standards and real purchasing power) in a heavily indebted society like ours it’s dangerous. That’s because consistent and steady inflation helps reduce the real burdens of debt. Your fixed principal mortgage will steadily erode away over time as the general price level and your wages rise.”

    “Inflationary pressures are also coming from higher rents and higher medical costs.

    The wild card is what happens with wages. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has consistently repeated her belief that the job market is weaker than many believe, based on measures such as long-term unemployment. And thus, she believes that wage inflation — which would truly unleash inflationary pressures across the economy — is not forthcoming.

    But new research suggests this belief could be mistaken. Research by economists including Robert Gordon of Northwestern University and Mark Watson of Princeton find that the short-term unemployment rate could be a much better predictor of the amount of slack in the job market. When it’s low, as it is now, then wage pressures can quickly follow.

    The rationale is that the long-term unemployed are increasingly discriminated against in the labor market. So employers view then as essentially being out of the available work force, reducing the supply of labor and creating competition for skilled workers.

    Overall, Robert Gordon estimates that if the Fed should try to push the unemployment rate, which stands at 6.7 percent, towards 5.0 percent over the next five years it will push inflation to as high as 3.8 percent. Instead, Gordon recommends that Fed should continue pulling back on the stimulus to keep inflation under control.

    So there you have it. After a long slumber inflation is coming back to life.

    And that’s a good thing, in that it indicates some reacceleration in the economy, reflects the potential for some increase in wages, and keeps the debt-deflation scenario at bay.

    But if the Fed pushes too hard, and causes prices to rise so much that it starts damaging the economy, we could face a painful future of higher prices, higher interest rates, and a slowing economy amid a stock market suffering from stimulus withdrawals. No one said managing the economy was easy. ”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-up-with-inflation/

  44. Michael says:

    45- article answered my question. I’m going to stand by my belief that wage inflation is coming. Deflation is not an option based on our enormous debt. If deflation occurs, our govt will fall over from the debt. It will not be able to service it. Same with all the citizens in debt, deflation would slaughter them. The debt will be impossible to pay back. With inflation, no debt is too big to take down. This is why I stated last year to take out as large of a loan that you could get. As long as the govt insists on having a large debt, they will push inflation. That mortgage I took out will eventually become a joke after inflation is through with it.

  45. Michael says:

    46- remember, every percentage point of wage inflation is a percentage point off your fixed loan. 4% wage inflation for 10 years, will take out 40% of the pain in your monthly payment in 10 years.

  46. Street Justice says:

    For anon:

    Vegas cop killers took part in “left wing” occupy movement marches

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/06/confirmed-las-vegas-cop-killers-were-members-of-far-left-occupy-movement/

  47. michael (41)-

    A cerebral cortex.

    “Am I missing something?”

  48. Quit feeding Michael the troll.

  49. Michael says:

    If you want me to shut the f up, destroy my arguments. If your way of thinking is so right, enlighten me. If you make such a credible argument, why would I go against it? I will adopt it. Obviously, it’s easier to hide your lack of ability to debate by calling me a troll. Keep on proving the extent of your intellectual capability by calling me a troll. I’ll tell you what, you would have done great on that show, “Are you smarter than a 5th grader”. Should have signed up.

    Transfuse the Cadaver says:
    June 17, 2014 at 9:28 pm
    Quit feeding Michael the troll.

  50. chicagofinance says:

    clot is by far the most erudite and articulate person on these threads…..case closed

    Michael says:
    June 17, 2014 at 9:50 pm
    If you want me to shut the f up, destroy my arguments. If your way of thinking is so right, enlighten me. If you make such a credible argument, why would I go against it? I will adopt it. Obviously, it’s easier to hide your lack of ability to debate by calling me a troll. Keep on proving the extent of your intellectual capability by calling me a troll. I’ll tell you what, you would have done great on that show, “Are you smarter than a 5th grader”. Should have signed up.

    Transfuse the Cadaver says:
    June 17, 2014 at 9:28 pm
    Quit feeding Michael the troll.

  51. chicagofinance says:

    clot…..heading up to the People’s Republic of Ithaca tomorrow…..

  52. Ragnar says:

    I used to wonder if it was possible for someone to be so ignorant and addle – brained that despite this deficiency, they could be perfectly satisfied living with their mental handicaps, oblivious to reality. Then I encountered the troll named Michael and observed that it is possible, and he’s living that dream.

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