From the Star Ledger:
Foreclosures spiking in N.J., paced by Atlantic City
Foreclosure activity in New Jersey jumped in August, a new report shows, leaving the state with one of the highest foreclosure rates nationwide.
New Jersey has the nation’s fourth-highest foreclosure rate, according to housing data released today by RealtyTrac, with foreclosure filings on one in every 553 homes in the state. Only Florida, Nevada and Maryland had higher foreclosure rates. Housing and real estate experts attributed the steep increase to a backlog of foreclosures that are now moving through the system.
Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac, said the foreclosure process in New Jersey had become dysfunctional over the last years and now he said, “it’s slowly but surely returning to a functional” process.
The foreclosure process started on nearly 4,500 homes in New Jersey last month, an increase of 115 percent from August 2013. Scheduled foreclosure auctions saw a 71 percent increase during the same time frame, to the highest level since July 2010.
Of the five counties in New Jersey with the highest foreclosure rates, four are in the southern half of the state. Atlantic County leads the pack followed by Cumberland, Sussex, Salem and Camden counties.
…
In Atlantic City, where casinos have been shuttering, foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the 28th time in the last 30 months.According to RealtyTrac, the city’s foreclosure rate ranked the second highest for a metropolitan area nationwide. One in every 292 housing units in the city had a foreclosure filing in August. That’s nearly four times the national average, the report said.
“New Jersey has a judicial foreclosure process, which takes much longer to carry out and has caused backlogs in courts around the state,” said Jarrod Grasso, CEO of the New Jersey Association of Realtors. “We know that many homeowners have faced foreclosure in the last few years, so it makes sense that the cases are now starting to be processed.”
…
Daniel Boddy, a real estate agent at Century 21 Frick Realtors in Galloway, said he’s noticed a jump in foreclosure activity throughout the area recently.“Not necessarily just in Atlantic City, but in our area in general they are up a lot higher than they were last year,” he said.
Boddy also attributed the increase in foreclosures to an easing of a logjam of cases, in part caused by a freeze on foreclosures by major mortgage firms, and the state’s lengthy foreclosure process.
“It’s not something that is just starting to happen because of casino closings,” Boddy said. But, he said, “those aren’t going to help.”
August Foreclosures
Hudson – 1 in 1046
Cape May – 1 in 1005
Somerset – 1 in 914
Bergen – 1 in 836
Hunterdon – 1 in 800
Monmouth – 1 in 739
Middlesex – 1 in 731
Union – 1 in 694
Morris – 1 in 657
NEW JERSEY – 1 in 553
Essex – 1 in 537
Passaic – 1 in 471
Mercer – 1 in 467
Gloucester – 1 in 462
Ocean – 1 in 451
Warren – 1 in 450
Burlington – 1 in 364
Camden – 1 in 360
Salem – 1 in 327
Cumberland – 1 in 307
Atlantic – 1 in 292
From the Washington Post:
The millennials-vs.-olds culture war has been greatly exaggerated
Pew Research published a fascinating study Wednesday on young Americans and media use that found, among other things, that people aged 16 to 29 — a.k.a., millennials (hiss) — read lots of books, socialize regularly with friends and family, and understand that much of the world’s wealth of wisdom/knowledge is not available online.
What the study also found, if not quite so literally: Millennials and older adults aren’t all that different in the way they approach technology. In other words, the whole culture war between “youngs” and “olds” — defined, in our estimation, as the people who “get” technology and the people who vaguely hate it – has been a little overblown. And, to the dismay of a thousand baby-boomer trend-piece writers, the generational differences between young people and their elders may be smaller than we think, as well.
[2] grim
Doesn’t matter. I’m still sticking the millennials with the tab.
Only until they are the voting majority…
[4] ^^^ I agree. They can read about it in one of their books some day.
btw, agreeing with Nom.
[4] grim – They won’t be voting unless their parents drive them to the polls.
I’d be interested to know what the breakdown is between millennials that have boomer parents and those that have gen x parents and if there is a diversion of traits and values.
I’m sure there are millennials with millennial parents, but I’m highly confident that those apples fall right close to the trunk of the tree;-)
When I was young California was an educational leader, now a grade F. NJ gets an A, go to link for Map of US states and their grade
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-schools-get-low-marks-from-chamber-of-commerce-1410449189
U.S. Schools Get Low Marks from Chamber of Commerce
Business Group Says Not Enough Progress Is Being Made in Preparing Students for Workforce
By Caroline Porter
Updated Sept. 11, 2014 5:57 p.m. ET
K-12 education systems are improving nationwide, but states aren’t doing enough to keep the U.S. competitive on the global stage, according to a new report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation.
The “Leaders & Laggards” report grades each state’s education performance and policies based on 11 business-oriented criteria, ranging from the availability of school options, such as charters, to the state’s pension-funding situation.
The report found that 12 states didn’t receive any A’s, while eight states earned at least 4 F’s. On the bright side, more than a dozen states didn’t receive any F’s, while eight states earned at least four A’s or A-minuses.
“We’re making progress but not enough progress…people ought to be outraged,” said Cheryl Oldham, vice president of the foundation’s Center for Education and Workforce. “Hopefully this is a wake-up call.”
In terms of academic performance, measured by students’ scores on a national test, all states improved since 2007, when the Chamber last issued a report on K-12 educational effectiveness. The gains were uneven, however.
South Carolina, Michigan and South Dakota saw bumps of less than 2 percentage points, while Hawaii, Maryland and the District of Columbia scored at least 10-point gains. Other factors considered in the report—compiled with the help of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank—included the state’s return on investment, international competitiveness and academic achievement.
Massachusetts earned the highest number of A’s, with six total.
“I am proud that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has recognized Massachusetts’ strong academic performance, including our high standards and international competitiveness,” Mitchell D. Chester, the state commissioner of elementary and secondary education, said in a statement. The state’s biggest challenge is the dearth of technology in schools, he said. Massachusetts received an F on the technology measure.
Alabama, by contrast, received nine F’s. Alabama State Department of Education spokesman Michael Sibley said the scores reflect old standards and noted his state fully implemented new math and English standards last school year. “We own our faults and we recognize our shortcomings in the way we have been preparing our students,” he said. “The goal is that our students are college and career ready. We’re beginning to see change already.”
The report found that the U.S. has a lot of work to do to keep up with the rest of the world’s educational gains, an idea supported by other recent findings. The U.S. remains a global leader in the proportion of adults with post-high-school education, but many nations are closing the gap, according to a global education survey released earlier this week by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The U.S. ranked 18 out of 27 countries in its percentage of today’s young people expected to finish a university education in their lifetime.
With an average math score of 514 for 15-year-old students, Massachusetts beat the average score of 494 for the OECD’s 34 member countries in 2012, according to a state report released this year. Still, the state ranked lower than countries such as Japan and Switzerland.
Some experts say the education system can’t do the job alone.
“While our education system needs to do better, it would not be able to do so unless the business community plays a stronger role both in setting standards for what young people should be learning [at a more specialized level] but also in creating the opportunity for them to get on-the-job experiences,” said Andy Van Kleunen, executive director of the National Skills Coalition, a nonprofit focused on workforce issues. “Local business still has to be a player in shaping education at the local level.”
Check out this whiney millennial, “Wah, wah, wah! I have private college debt and I want some inflation.”
http://time.com/money/3006715/millennials-higher-inflation-baby-boomers/
I’m more interested in the Millennials that are immigrants or first generation born in the US, you know, the ones that don’t squander opportunity. Looking at the stats, they will make up a significant portion of this demographic.
Morris County Sheriff Sale Outcomes, 9/11/2014
Sales Scheduled: 42
Sold to Plaintiff (REO): 6
Sold to Third Party: 0
Adjourned per Plaintiff to later date: 21
Adjourned to later date, Bankruptcy: 7
Adjourned to later date per Court Order: 1
Adjourned to later date per Sheriff: 3
Cancelled: 3
Open: 1
From the Record:
Storm clouds loom over NJ real estate
The recovery of New Jersey’s commercial real estate market could be derailed by a glut of multifamily development, the state’s fiscal woes and local governments’ resistance to change, executives said at a conference Thursday.
Real estate officials offered a bullish report on most sectors of the real estate market — industrial, office and multifamily — at the 13th annual RealShare New Jersey forum, attended by about 400 people at the Hyatt Regency.
However, industry veterans also warned that there are issues looming over the progress that the state’s real estate market has made since it was battered in the recession. During a session focusing on economic growth, forum participants questioned whether the state’s “white-hot” multifamily market’s bubble is about to burst.
“For multifamily developers, there are some potential dark clouds on the horizon,” said Carl Goldberg, co-president of Mack-Cali Realty Corp.’s Roseland unit. “Is there a point in time when the multifamily market in this geography becomes overbuilt?”
That market has been very strong, with major projects announced practically every day in Fort Lee, Jersey City, West New York and Weehawken, Goldberg said. But the preference for luxury rentals could end, he told the audience.
“Of the five counties in New Jersey with the highest foreclosure rates, four are in the southern half of the state. Atlantic County leads the pack followed by Cumberland, Sussex, Salem and Camden counties.
…
In Atlantic City, where casinos have been shuttering, foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the 28th time in the last 30 months.”
I am reminded of a convo I overheard between two Penn students, one from NJ and one from PA. The PA student was trashing NJ; the NJ student retorted that they have the Shore. To which the PA student replied “you mean the PA beaches and the swamp you cross to get to them.” The NJ student, who was clearly from Northern NJ, shrugged his shoulders and said nothing.
SoJo really is the Arkansas of the tri-state area.
“Of the five counties in New Jersey with the highest foreclosure rates, four are in the southern half of the state. Atlantic County leads the pack followed by Cumberland, Sussex, Salem and Camden counties.
…
In Atlantic City, where casin0s have been shuttering, foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the 28th time in the last 30 months.”
I am reminded of a convo I overheard between two Penn students, one from NJ and one from PA. The PA student was tr@shing NJ; the NJ student retorted that they have the Shore. To which the PA student replied “you mean the PA beaches and the swamp you cross to get to them.” The NJ student, who was clearly from Northern NJ, shrugged his shoulders and said nothing.
SoJo really is the Arkansas of the tri-state area.
Morris County YTD completed Sheriff Sales:
Sold to Plaintiff (REO): 116
Sold to Third Party: 25
Morris County owner-occupied with a mortgage or a loan houses and condos in 2010: 100,161
There are some commercial properties included in the foreclosures, so it’s more like 1 in 1,000 homes with a mortgage in Morris County have been actually foreclosed on YTD. Over 8+ months that’s more like 1 in 8000 per month of actual *completed* foreclosures. I believe that 1 in 657 homes in Morris might have had foreclosure proceedings initiated in August, but I’ve been watching this for years and years and they just are not coming out the other end of the pipeline…yet, …or maybe never?
Nom – I think you just insulted Arkansas.
SoJo really is the Arkansas of the tri-state area.
If you said Kentucky – cum se cum sa
Yeah it’s been a long-standing criticism of the RealtyTrac data, they count every step in the process, and in some cases they count the same property more than once. For a long time many assumed that their number of Foreclosures was a count of REO/Auctions, but it’s not, not even close.
[18] grim – I’ve also noticed that they just drop properties off after several years, maybe assuming foreclosure has completed. I know properties in MC that have been in foreclosure for 6-8 years that don’t show up anymore on RealtyTrac.
The more interesting number would be the % of initial notices of default or lis pendens that get sold at auction. Everyone seems focused on the lis pendens numbers and from what I see, ending up at auction isn’t the most common outcome anymore (depends on area).
I doubt there is any consistent way that mortgage modifications and workouts are being reported in the public record, which is probably driving this. I would guess, more often than not, these are being reported as adjournments, or initial notices without any further activity (which RealtyTrac would track as a “Pending Foreclosure” for whatever time period they desire to).
The data is from public record, it’s dirty, it’s inconsistent, and tracking services are making numerous assumptions. This data isn’t based on numbers provided from mortgage servicers in real time.
30yr should probably chime in.
I hear more and more stories of people in the tri-state area who haven’t paid their mortgage in years and are not being forclosed on. Any reasonable guess on what percentage of homes this might be?
Grim [4];
Only until they are the voting majority…
I look forward to being the generation “in charge” when the locust baby boomers are old and fraile.
I was looking at the “for sale” fliers in the window of a realty yesterday. Lots of apartments for sale in Hoboken, JC, Weehawken, Edgewater, etc. I giggle at the price tags, especially knowing that you can’t send your kids to the schools. There was this co-op for sale on Boulevard East; 2 bedrooms, 2 baths listed at $499,000.
Not too bad, I thought, considering the theft prices that prevail. Then, I saw the monthly maintenance fee: $1850 per month. Let me repeat it: $1850 per month. They didn’t list what the taxes and other fees are but after you put 20% down and after you pay the PITI, they expect another $1850 per month.
I’ll repeat what I said months and months ago: It will get to the point where you will be given the place to live and you’ll be responsible for the fees, maintenance costs, taxes and every other blood-letting cost the con men can invent. Your ability to pay will be the difference between living in Detroit or living at 72nd street and 5th Avenue in Manhattan.
[22] Juice – There was a guy here from Rockaway Township several months ago who said it was widespread in his neighborhood. I’m wondering who, how, and if the taxes are paid when this occurs. I think that banks can’t foreclose in a lot of areas without completely tanking the market in that area, particularly the 2nd tier bedroom community towns. Since the banks can’t take the properties back, they seem fine to have the defaulters serving as groundskeepers in lieu of rent rather than cutting out all the copper pipes and abandoning the properties. Also, by removing these properties from the normal market, the small inventory fits the small number of buyers better thereby supporting prices. I think they can only keep so many plates spinning so long though.
I hear more and more stories of people in the tri-state area who haven’t paid their mortgage in years and are not being forclosed on. Any reasonable guess on what percentage of homes this might be?
Where’s the metric for the people paying their mortgage every month on a house that’s currently worth 20% less than when they bought it? I’m still waiting for someone to post it.
I wonder if this Einstein is aware of the fact that inflation is the cause of his large amount of student debt. Even I would admit inflation is terrific if I get to choose where is does and doesn’t manifest itself.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 7:27 am
Check out this whiney millennial, “Wah, wah, wah! I have private college debt and I want some inflation.”
http://time.com/money/3006715/millennials-higher-inflation-baby-boomers/
Juice – from last November:
The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
November 29, 2013 at 3:42 pm
[67] Street J – I think this is becoming the case in Morris County, particularly places like Rockaway Township. Having grown up there, I know the neighborhoods and the houses very well. If you go by Zillow’s estimates, everything there is still declining with homes very much lie the ones in grim’s new neighborhood( mid 1960s Ranches, CH Colonials, Bi-Levels) going for $300K, down from $450K at the peak with no uptick at all. The troubling thing there, and I think it shows in the prices, are that just about nothing goes through to foreclosure. I’ve been following houses there that went LPF 4 and 5 years ago, but they never make it to auction, with lots of neighbors are just hanging out rent free and letting maintenance lapse. Rockaway Township has good schools and good neighborhoods but the housing market looks like the low point is still years away.
The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
November 29, 2013 at 4:00 pm
[81] And when I say $300K buys a nice house now it RT, I’m talking about an updated CH Colonial, 1800-2000 square feet, 4BR, 2.5 Baths on a 1/4 Acre lots and $9K tax bill. Smaller 3 BR, 2 Bath homes on smaller lots can be had for $250K.
Former Rockaway Resident says:
November 30, 2013 at 7:43 am
#81 – Right on the money! Lived in Rockaway Twp. all my life. Left two years ago. Got 300K for our house. At peak it was around 495K. MINT and TOTALLY updated large ranch with all the extras on a 1 acre level lot NOT in a flood zone (and not in White Meadow Lake) backing up to a large WMA (Wildlife Management Area).
Begged my wife to sell in back in 2005-2006. She wouldn’t.
My only about moving is not keeping a rental prop. or two, there.
The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:
November 30, 2013 at 8:07 am
[103] FRR – Thanks for confirming what I’ve been watching from afar in Rockaway Township. Had you noticed any outward signs of financial distress in the neighborhoods before you left?
Former Rockaway Resident says:
November 30, 2013 at 8:30 am
#104 [ExPat]
Many foreclosed upon empty houses spread around the Township. Personally know two couples who have not made a mortage payment in over 4 years yet they are still living in their homes (one is banking the money instead).
Several long time neighbors left (some sold – those early on, some walked away – those after 3008) between 2005-2011.
How can one live in a town where the property taxes keep increasing but the house value goes down?
I like to fish two trout streams there so I visit a few times a year.
The only section of the township where people look to be doing well is Greenpond (Lake).
Wow, would have thought this guy would have been gunned down, but he was calmly talked to.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/state/dash-cam-video-of-incident-in-kalamazoo-highlights-debate-over-michigans-open-carry-gun-laws
Grim,
Are all loan modifications due to a workout with the servicer listed in public records? How would that type “modification” look any different from a refi?
I’ll guess that the $1850 includes the property tax?
’87C – I would guess not. Typically it is Maintenance of the common area and grounds, Insurance on the building and, varying widely, some or all utilities and services. Our heat and hot water, for example, are included in our $600 condo fee.
I’ll guess that the $1850 includes the property tax?
[32] Oh and funding the reserve fund for future repairs, of course.
No, the $1850 does not include the property tax. The property tax was not listed. You’re witnessing the transfer of private wealth to public coffers. A private transaction will cease to exist as taxes, fees, surcharges and any other conjured cost will be funded at your expense. It’s no different than paying the black hand for protection in the guise of legal enforcement.
You all are probably right, however, I know that Co-Ops in NY generally include their property tax into the maintenance and report what percentage of the maintenance is tax deductible…
Pretty high on regular mortgages as they require 20% down. Even 10% down mortgage you are talking only homes bought Spring 2003 to Spring 2008 and they are already well into principal portion.
Homes down by 20% who refinanced in a cash out or took out large HELOCS are defaulting big time.
The Helocs and the cash outs were the killers. Makes it also hard to modify loan or short sale when multiple folks are knocking on your front door.
Fast Eddie says:
September 12, 2014 at 9:23 am
Where’s the metric for the people paying their mortgage every month on a house that’s currently worth 20% less than when they bought it? I’m still waiting for someone to post it.
I always find it amusing folks talk about condo and coop maint. It is often a night and day number.
My condo pays $500 a month maint and an identical coop walking distance away pays $1,000 maint. Lets say both units sell for same exact price. Which would you buy?
Further research and that coop has heat, water, gas and property tax included in maint and a pool. My condo you pay your own heat, water, gas and property tax. Plus no pool.
On top of that my condo you are responsible for your own windows, doors, deck, HVAC and hot water heater. This stuff can break and cost a lot. The coop it is association problem.
The only huge difference is I can rent it out and sell to whoever I want. Great for an investor. However, why old folks love condos I dont get, they are going out feet first so renting or selling is not an issue. My condo we get folks who go to Florida for winter and they have all sorts of issues with heat, water, etc. They have to pay handimen or costs to fix. Big headache. A coop give super the key.
Stop the damn lies. You are comparing apples to oranges. If you only counted the asians and whites in your education statistics, you would think the u.s. is blowing away the competition. But throw in every single kid in america into those stats, and they destroy them. Would love to see these other countries count homeless kids and special ed kids in their stats like the u.s. does.
“K-12 education systems are improving nationwide, but states aren’t doing enough to keep the U.S. competitive on the global stage, according to a new report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation.”
38- They are creating fear on bs stats. That’s all they are doing. Our education system is not broken.
Damn, this article sounds like me to a T. Bring on the inflation!!! Tired of this generation getting crapped on from the old timers.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 7:27 am
Check out this whiney millennial, “Wah, wah, wah! I have private college debt and I want some inflation.”
http://time.com/money/3006715/millennials-higher-inflation-baby-boomers/
Where’s the metric for the people paying their mortgage every month on a house that’s currently worth 20% less than when they bought it? I’m still waiting for someone to post it.
Pretty high actually. But what are you implying? That just because someone is 20% under water they’d stop paying? Walk away?
I suspect there are plenty of folks that are 20% under, but still employed, still paying the mortgage, no worse for wear…
Ok, so let’s play a game.
2005 buyer, $500,000, 10% down – Mortgage $450,000. DP $50,000.
So now the house is under by 20%, down to $400k. It’s also 9 years later, and the outstanding mortgage balance is likely $385k.
From the buyer perspective? Maybe some remorse, but they aren’t in dire straits.
The initial PI would have been about $2900 a month. If they refinance into a new 30yr today, they’ll lower that to about $2200 a month, a savings of $700 a month, HUGE. We’re talking $8,400 a year less in PI.
(41) And that’s why they are not as willing to sell the house – thus keeping inventory levels low.
But what are you implying?
No, I don’t expect them to stop paying. I would continue to make my payments. What I’m implying is that they not only want the price they paid but probably higher. Sorry, it doesn’t work that way. It’s not my fault that they f.ucked up. The price is now 400K.
The initial PI would have been about $2900 a month. If they refinance into a new 30yr today, they’ll lower that to about $2200 a month.
Wrong, the property taxes have increased substantially in that 9 year period wiping out any advantage on a refinance.
And that’s why they are not as willing to sell the house – thus keeping inventory levels low.
They can’t sell, they’re not qualified.
That’s what I thought. I even said to myself, “This is exactly what Passion Fruit would sound like if he had an education.”
Damn, this article sounds like me to a T. Bring on the inflation!!! Tired of this generation getting crapped on from the old timers.
Wrong, the property taxes have increased substantially in that 9 year period wiping out any advantage on a refinance.
You sure you are remembering correctly? Are you saying the taxes on a house purchased for $500,000 in 2005 have gone up by $8,400 a year?
Where? In reality it’s a quarter of this.
No, I’m saying the taxes in the last 9 years have risen to the point that practically wipes out the refinance. Mine alone have increased 72% and I’m on a little POS property. Factor in food, fuel and a myriad of other expenses and it’s a moot point. The owner is in even worse shape now financially than when they got scammed during the bubble years. And that refinance can only occur IF you’re qualified.
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“You’re witnessing the transfer of private wealth to public coffers”
Gary, very well said.
How is it being transferred to public coffers? I’m missing something
All Hype,
I’m not your average muppet; I only play one for the amusement of the board members. ;)
Ok lets play this again with real data.
House in Morris County, I’ll be vague since I just went through a few records to find this one and don’t want to dump someones private information all over.
Purchased Mid July 2005 – Purchase Price $560k, mortgage $475k, 15% down. Taxes at time of purchase were $7,300. Mortgage rates would have been about 5.8%. Keeping things simple, homeowners ins at $1000.00. Piti would be $3478 a month. INCLUDING PROPERTY TAXES.
Same situation, except this guy is savvy, like Stu, and refinances at 3.75% last year, so 8 years of paydown. So now the mortgage balance is down to $405,000. Property taxes are up to $10,100. Ins the same at $1,000.
PITI is now down to $2,800.61 – INCLUDING THE GOD DAMN PROPERTY TAXES.
So now this guy is now paying $678 a month less, a total of $8,136 less a year. Which is just about equivalent to only needing to make 9 mortgage payments a year. A lot of coin.
Ok, so his $560k house is only worth $448k. So What? He’s going to stop paying his mortgage now? Go default because he lost his down payment? Doubt that, he’s sitting like a pig in shit because he can lease a brand new Mercedes for what he is saving on his mortgage now.
So he’s got the same house he had in 2005, a brand new mercedes in the driveway, and his financial situation isn’t any worse for wear.
Maybe he’ll sell and go rent? That would cost him more money than staying, both in transaction costs, and in the fact that renting the same exact house would easily cost closer to $3,500 a month. He’s going to take his $2,800 a month PITI payment and trade that for a $3,500 a month rental? Not only is he paying more, but losing the MID and Property Tax write offs as well, making it cost even more.
Why is this such a shock? Calling these owners Zombies is being a little too creative, more like hammock swingers. Is he an idiot for buying in 2005? Shit yes, but that’s not what we’re debating here. Yes, I understand he is casting his 20 year remainder loan into a new 30 year loan, and paying more interest, but we’re not debating whether or not the strategy is ideal, only that the situation isn’t nearly as bad as some make it to be.
[53] except for being out $83K with no way to get it back, he’s doing the same.
So, he went from a 5.8% interest rate to 3.75% interest rate. What great timing! ;) Was that at the same time you could witness the sun setting down the center of 34th street? Was the moon in the seventh house while Jupiter aligned with Mars? ;) And after all that effort to save, he goes and leases a Mercedes. Another financial f.uckup. For argument’s sake, let’s say the dude timed everything perfectly. His house is now worth 448K, not 560K. That’s my point.
So now that we’ve established the financials, what do you propose he do?
Cry?
Sure, he’ll bitch, he’ll cry. Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda listened to grim is the song he’ll sing.
But you really think he’s going to stop paying his mortgage in this situation? Would you? I don’t think you would.
Is he going to sell? No, probably not. I think he’d probably take that $8k and remodel the bathroom to make his wife happy she isn’t getting a bigger house, maybe next year redo the deck.
Ok, so no cherry pick, let’s say he waits until today, right now to refinance, that’s an extra year of payments and a 4 1/8th. So his PITI is $2835, a whole $35 more than if he’d caught the bottom.
No, he’s not going to stop making payments and neither would I. But, if he decides to sell, he better come to the table with a check or be prepared to sell for less than what he paid. Now, for those that HELOC’d the p1ss out of the place and had a 102% LTV? That’s a whole other ocean of discussion.
54 – Expat
So it’s been established that selling is a poor if not impossible task, the only option is to wait. Which could also mean prices inflate to a point minimizing that initial loss.
You are never out anything in real estate until you cash out.
Nom [14];
Surely you’ve heard this but “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.” – J. Carville
Grim [53];
I take your point and generally agree with you here. The one thing I will say is that refi-ing from a 30 into another 30 at year 7, even with the rate drop, is a balance sheet disaster. Its basically building your own interest-only mortgage that will never get paid off. The apples-to-apples comparison would be to match the loan term. This offsets the savings to be gained, but I acknowledge that rate decrease is the dominant cost driver.
As an uneducated individual would say….stop being a HATER! I have 3 degrees. My family income is over 200k as a millennial, but I’m an idiot? Why, because I don’t think the end of the world is coming? Because I think wage inflation is inevitable?
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 11:12 am
That’s what I thought. I even said to myself, “This is exactly what Passion Fruit would sound like if he had an education.”
Damn, this article sounds like me to a T. Bring on the inflation!!! Tired of this generation getting crapped on from the old timers.
Because you’re an idiot
It is not Asians and Whites. It is Whites and Asians.
Michael says:
September 12, 2014 at 10:46 am
Stop the damn lies. You are comparing apples to oranges. If you only counted the asians and whites in your education statistics, you would think the u.s. is blowing away the competition. But throw in every single kid in america into those stats, and they destroy them. Would love to see these other countries count homeless kids and special ed kids in their stats like the u.s. does.
“K-12 education systems are improving nationwide, but states aren’t doing enough to keep the U.S. competitive on the global stage, according to a new report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation.”
Well said. That’s the bottom line. It’s no different then stocks. Some people have trouble understanding this.
A Home Buyer says:
September 12, 2014 at 12:26 pm
54 – Expat
So it’s been established that selling is a poor if not impossible task, the only option is to wait. Which could also mean prices inflate to a point minimizing that initial loss.
You are never out anything in real estate until you cash out.
Only me and Chifi would read this article. And like it.
Kicker Bond Prices Surge, Increasing Their Risk
by Hillary Flynn
SEP 12, 2014 12:38pm ET
Increasing popular kicker bonds may seem like a sure bet for investors, but analysts warn the growing demand for the bonds is increasing their risk.
The End Is Nigh (JJ Eldercare Edition):
Cops called to neighborhood over reports of screaming — it’s a loud p0rn film
The police were shocked to find that it was a hard-of-hearing resident watching a hardcore p0rn movie so loud it terrified the neighbors.
BY Lee Moran
Worried locals in a quiet Spanish town called cops Tuesday after hearing loud screams penetrating their usually sedate neighborhood.
But when officers arrived to investigate, they were stunned to find the source of the hysterical shrieks was, in fact, the soundtrack of a hardcore p0rn movie.
The X-rated flick was being played at full volume by a hard-of-hearing home owner.
The sounds from the p0rn movie at full volume frightened the neighbors.
He also had his windows fully open.
An apartment building in Rubí, Catalonia, where a hard-of-hearing senior citizen played a p0rn movie at full volume.
Police in Rubí, Catalonia, ordered the man, who has not been named, to turn the sound on his television set down, reports La Vanguardia.
And they also asked him to “behave with more consideration for his community in the future.”
Alright, I’ll play. Define idiot and explain how the characteristics apply to me.
joyce says:
September 12, 2014 at 12:44 pm
Because you’re an idiot
Sorry, Lucky Eddie. Your arguments don’t fly. Not in many cases, anyway. Example 1 – the property tax on my residence has gone up by 2-3% total in 7 years. Several years in a row it actually went down. No appeals involved. This is due to baby boomers staying put after kids finish public schooling. Less kids in the school system.
Example 2 – Friend buys house in 2000 getting a 6% rate. Refinances it to 3.75. Why should he move or sell as it is cheaper to pay PITI on the 4br colonial than it is to rent a modern 2 bedroom apt.
Eddie, these examples are choking your inventory. Michael is right. You will lose in the long run. It seems Asians now are abandoning Edison area to move into the more modern and spacious homes in Somerset county. They have extended families living under one roof, but find the total package is cheaper when living in one big box. That is what is driving home sales this part of the state. Soon they will come to my neck of the woods. No denying. Just a matter of time.
And they will push guys like you, who can’t see what’s ahead in the road, out to the curb.
May as well move to Louisiana.
[59] Not true – Maintenance and Taxes don’t come back to you. 5 years ago you’re paying $9K a year to wait until next year in taxes alone. This year you’re paying $15K a year to wait until next year in taxes along. 5 more years from now you’re paying $20k a year in taxes? With that kind of model at some point houses become like cars and are worth less every year instead of more.
You are never out anything in real estate until you cash out.
Yeah, but they are all 144 placements….there is no way to get your meat hooks into them…..
jj says:
September 12, 2014 at 12:47 pm
Only me and Chifi would read this article. And like it.
Kicker Bond Prices Surge, Increasing Their Risk
by Hillary Flynn
SEP 12, 2014 12:38pm ET
Increasing popular kicker bonds may seem like a sure bet for investors, but analysts warn the growing demand for the bonds is increasing their risk.
Idiot
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An idiot, dolt, or dullard is an intellectually disabled person, or someone who acts in a self-defeating or significantly counterproductive way. Archaically the word mome has also been used. The similar terms moron, imbecile, and cretin have all gained specialized meanings in modern times. An idiot is said to be idiotic, and to suffer from idiocy. A dunce is an idiot who is specifically incapable of learning. An idiot differs from a fool (who is unwise) and an ignoramus (who is uneducated/an ignorant), neither of which refers to someone with low intelligence. In modern English usage, the terms “idiot” and “idiocy” describe an extreme folly or stupidity, and its symptoms (foolish or stupid utterance or deed). In psychology, it is a historical term for the state or condition now called profound intellectual disability.
“Wealth – any income that is at least $100 more a year than the income of one’s wife’s sister’s husband.”
H.L. Mencken
There is a lot of truth in Michael’s words if you just read between the lines:
Michael says:
September 12, 2014 at 12:43 pm
As an uneducated individual would say….stop being a HATER! I have 3 degrees. My family income is over 200k as a millennial, butI’m an idiot? Why, because I don’t think the end of the world is coming? Because I think wage inflation is inevitable?It’s been explained repeatedly; you’re too stupid to understand.
Yes, this is who I would have loved to see in the White House
http://news.yahoo.com/palin-family-allegedly-involved-brawl-190208427.html
A majority of the Palin family — Sarah, Todd, Bristol, and Track — was allegedly involved in a booze-filled brawl over the weekend in which the former vice presidential candidate reportedly screamed, “Don’t you know who I am?”
No. In stocks professional investors know money management is the most important thing, not holding on ’till zero.
Pros know:
1. Don’t let a winner turn into a loser, you get rich by letting your winners run, but most wins will be singles, not home runs. Don’t let them turn into outs. Once I gain 4%, I will never take a loss.
2. Don’t let a small loss turn into a big loss. My very favorite trades are the ones where I had the discipline to take the small loss, I won’t lose more than 7% on a position.
Well said. That’s the bottom line. It’s no different then stocks. Some people have trouble understanding this.
Wrong. Living in some kind of housing, whether you rent or own, leaves you paying these taxes. So throw your argument out the window, it’s useless. It’s the cost of living, it is unavoidable, unless you want to live with mommy and daddy. Even then, they are paying your share.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 1:17 pm
[59] Not true – Maintenance and Taxes don’t come back to you. 5 years ago you’re paying $9K a year to wait until next year in taxes alone. This year you’re paying $15K a year to wait until next year in taxes along. 5 more years from now you’re paying $20k a year in taxes? With that kind of model at some point houses become like cars and are worth less every year instead of more.
You are never out anything in real estate until you cash out.
@ Grim 53
The scenario you laid out makes sense and I wouldn’t consider that to be any issue but what if your property is worth $400k today?
Not saying you should stop paying your mortgage but that’s a sh%$y position to be in knowing you started back at year 1 on a 30 year loan.
70 – Expat
Never claimed that. You changed your argument which I believe was originally just about lost housing value.
For the record, my taxes have not increased 100% over 5 years as your example claims, however maintenance is a pain.
FKA [76];
Baaah! Baaah!
How quickly they forget the Carter family, esp. peanut farmer Billy.
Moose,
Look in the mirror recently?
Obama’s speech on ISIS, in Plain English
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/obamas-speech-on-isis-in-plain-english/380021/
No kidding. I was generalizing. Meaning, if the market crashes like it did in 2008, don’t panic and sell. HOLD and BUY more. Same strategy applies to real estate. That’s why people are holding. You would be an idiot to sell right now.
Also, take apple for example, in the 90’s it was worthless, but if you held you probably became rich off it.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 1:35 pm
No. In stocks professional investors know money management is the most important thing, not holding on ’till zero.
Pros know:
1. Don’t let a winner turn into a loser, you get rich by letting your winners run, but most wins will be singles, not home runs. Don’t let them turn into outs. Once I gain 4%, I will never take a loss.
2. Don’t let a small loss turn into a big loss. My very favorite trades are the ones where I had the discipline to take the small loss, I won’t lose more than 7% on a position.
High Property taxes are also a result of folks not agressively managing their properties. I grieve my taxes every year. Nearly every year I win, when I dont win I am willing to appeal it at the court level.
Assessor knows I will keep appealing and as such they give me just enough each year to get me to sign off where I lose the right to appeal. But over course of 5-10 years theose little wins each year really helps.
Same goes with mortages, you can refinance or thow in extra payments and same goes for homeowners insurance you can shop around every few years.
This year I won my grievance on both properties and I have two more grievances pending on both places and come Jan I will file again on both places win or lose.
Most people dont grieve their taxes, shop around their homeowners insurance or attempt to prepay or refinance mortgage yet they whine about their mortgage payment.
Plus the rental market if very strong even on single family homes. If I were to sell my primary and did not get a somewhat decent price I would just rent it out. A tenant is easier to get them a buyer. Plus as long as two out of last five years it is your primary most likely I could grab 1-4 years rent and relist it between tenants.
Michael says:
September 12, 2014 at 1:51 pm
No kidding. I was generalizing. Meaning, if the market crashes like it did in 2008, don’t panic and sell. HOLD and BUY more. Same strategy applies to real estate. That’s why people are holding. You would be an idiot to sell right now.
Also, take apple for example, in the 90′s it was worthless, but if you held you probably became rich off it.
Concerns Voiced about LIPA’s Expanding Debt Load
by Robert Slavin
SEP 12, 2014 1:21pm ET
Despite a significant restructuring of operations and finances in the wake of its poor performance after Hurricane Sandy, the Long Island Power Authority’s debt load is rising.
Not so much they are borrowing buy amazing that such a huge amount of people want to lend to them.
@81 Anon
Carter is even worst because that clown actually got into office. Then we followed up with electing an actor battling Alzheimer’s.
You’re having trouble thinking outside of gradma’s box again. Market forces determine rents and prices, they are not determined by taxes. Landlords frequently get caught renting at negative or reduced cash flow due to tax increases. Not every investor got the Nana discount, you know?
Wrong. Living in some kind of housing, whether you rent or own, leaves you paying these taxes. So throw your argument out the window, it’s useless. It’s the cost of living, it is unavoidable, unless you want to live with mommy and daddy. Even then, they are paying your share.
There is a huge difference between being on the precipice of foreclosure and having sour grapes you bought at the top – this is the point I’m making.
There are plenty of idiots who purchased at the top who made bad decisions, and will be paying for the mistake for a long time, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are in dire straits or one step away from walking away.
I now firmly believe the long-term repercussions of the bubble aren’t going to be seen in homeownership rates, or demographics, but in length of ownership.
Not only has the bubble kept people in houses longer, the massively low interest rates will keep them there longer yet.
Who is going to sell a house with a 3.75% mortgage if the new property is going to have a 6% loan? Very few, and only when forced. Lower or higher prices are short to mid term trends, so we see prices change over 5 years. The length trend will have low inventory as status quo for over a decade. Going to be like when we were kids, or our parents were kids, and people stayed in the same house for 20+ years.
Xolepa [69],
Sorry, you don’t get to cherry pick and toss in pure anecdotal stuff. Touting 1 case while the other 9 are fighting to stay afloat doesn’t fly. Bought in 2000? So did I, just before the sh1t storm hit. Taxes went down? Not anyone I know, including myself. Way too much lipstick to champion the cause. Hordes buying in Somerset county under one roof? Are their names Jethro and Ellie Mae Clampert? Yeah, that will do wonders to hold the value of the neighborhood.
grim – I think you mean:
I now firmly believe the long-term repercussions of the bubble aren’t going to be seen in homeownership rates, or demographics, but in length of
ownershipoccupation.#90…that scenario, where folks stay in homes longer and reduce inventory thus inflating prices is similar to what the WSJ reported recently regarding munis…though rates are low, you’d expect more issuances, but municipalities and residents don’t want to borrow any more, so issuances are low, prices go higher and rates stay low….
Yes and No. Lower cost of ownership makes it easy to hold on or charge less rent for a good tennant.
Think of it this way. A car with a expensive lease payment you will go on lease trader .com and pay folks to take lease over and susidize payment.
A car you own outright if you think you are getting lowballed and is not depreciating you can sit and wait.
Housing is like that. If I think Grandmas house is hard to sell right now and I have to take less, but Grandma has no mortgage and low taxes I might just rent it.
If grandma is leverage to max or has high taxes and rent wont cover costs you sell even at a loss.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 2:07 pm
You’re having trouble thinking outside of gradma’s box again. Market forces determine rents and prices, they are not determined by taxes. Landlords frequently get caught renting at negative or reduced cash flow due to tax increases. Not every investor got the Nana discount, you know?
Wrong. Living in some kind of housing, whether you rent or own, leaves you paying these taxes. So throw your argument out the window, it’s useless. It’s the cost of living, it is unavoidable, unless you want to live with mommy and daddy. Even then, they are paying your share.
There are plenty of idiots who purchased at the top who made bad decisions, and will be paying for the mistake for a long time, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are in dire straits or one step away from walking away.
Agree, 100%. But don’t expect a bailout nor have the audacity to expect a profit when/if it comes time to sell.
And “home occupation” isn’t just a quip as there are families not paying their mortgage and staying, people perpetually behind on their mortgage and staying, people paying on time, even underwater, and staying. All of these camps pretty much eradicate the traditional move-up market. Qualified buyers will no longer be stretching for bigger houses and bigger tax bills and qualified sellers may still run on this market and drive prices down. It won’t be pretty no matter what.
I wonder if there’s a date when we hit “peak empty nesting”? I have a friend with twin 14 year olds (fraternal twins) and he claims he’s selling his house and downsizing during their first semester of college so they don’t have a room to come back to.
Com – you go to (or live in) Ocean City Maryland and have the audacity to talk sh*t about southern jersey? Ever been to LBI bud? Guessing it’s a little out of your price range…
You are so annoying.
Somebody is having way too much fun with the strikethrough text recently….
Look at the latest Zillow negative equity report (Q2 2014).
Of mortgaged properties, 5% of them are underwater in Hillsdale, NJ.
In 07112 Newark, 51% of them are underwater.
4% of mortgaged properties are underwater in Wyckoff, 47% in Paterson.
Realizing that approximately 1/3rd of single family homes are owned outright in NJ, the percentage of all homes is under 3% for Wyck. Probably less than that since I’d wager a guess that more than 1/3rd of homes are owned outright.
All I am saying, is that people who bough peak and can weather the storm, prices will rise again. If they sell now, they sell at a loss. If they can hold on, prices will eventually come back, and then this whole period of low housing prices won’t even matter. It only matters if you sell.
That’s what I have been trying to say on this board, but I get called an idiot. Whether you realize it or not, housing prices are cheap right now compared to what they will be in 2024. If you buy now, you will certainly make money if you hold for 10 years and decide to sell in 2024. Too bad I get blasted and called an idiot for understanding this. I’m sorry you guys can’t understand this, and decide to call me an idiot because I don’t believe housing prices will be down 10 years from now. It will be a whole new economy in 10 years. You have been in the bad zone of the economy, hence, your negative outlooks. Just open your mind, and realize it is not going to be bad forever.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 2:07 pm
You’re having trouble thinking outside of gradma’s box again. Market forces determine rents and prices, they are not determined by taxes. Landlords frequently get caught renting at negative or reduced cash flow due to tax increases. Not every investor got the Nana discount, you know?
102- It’s like stocks, if you believe in a company as a growth investment, should you bother looking at the stock price everyday? NO. Same thing with housing. Who cares about your house being underwater right now if you dont have to sell. If you are holding long term, ignore the noise. It does not matter, unless you sell.
Eddie, you still don’t get it. Example 1 applies to my entire town and most of the county. The politicians here are frequently sued by employees because they make life miserable for them. They keep expenses down to the bone, unlike your part of the state. Example 2 – most people of my years and slightly younger moved up last in the mid 90s and early part of the next decade, before the boom started. If they still have mortgages, they have refinanced them to historically low levels. The typical 4br 3000 sq ft new construction colonial in late 90s ran in the high $300ks, from Hunterdon to Randolph and beyond. The P and I part is now less than $900 a month. Who in their right minds would want to sell? Dagnabit, monthly SS benefits would pay that alone. You are set for life.
And most of them did not buy in the up-run. We knew things were out of control then. And that Hillbilly part, try again. Just took a drive during lunch hour to a farmer who sells firewood on the side. We start talking. Turns out, he tells me he has 4 properties in town, totaling $48k in annual property taxes. Also has some places down south along the gulf. Has a nice new tractor, nice pickup, yaddeeya. Where does all this money come from? They have it around here. They just don’t want to show it.
Same thing with those Asians coming our way. What do you think they spend their money on?
[99] 223
“You are so annoying.”
Thank you!
When I am annoying cobbler, ottoman, anon or you, I am doing something right.
Rumors iPhone 6 pre-sales are breaking all previous records.
Guess a lot more people refinanced than I thought.
Where the fcuk do you come off saying sh!t such as this? You may be correct, but to state it as a certainty is plain hubris……
Michael says:
September 12, 2014 at 2:46 pm
Whether you realize it or not, housing prices are cheap right now compared to what they will be in 2024. If you buy now, you will certainly make money if you hold for 10 years and decide to sell in 2024.
Over the really long term no one makes money on housing as it generally just keeps up with inflation.
Jersey surburbs are even worse. Unless you were buying in Hipster Williamsburg or Gramercy Park these last 30 years you did not make a killing
chicagofinance says:
September 12, 2014 at 3:42 pm
Where the fcuk do you come off saying sh!t such as this? You may be correct, but to state it as a certainty is plain hubris……
Michael says:
September 12, 2014 at 2:46 pm
Whether you realize it or not, housing prices are cheap right now compared to what they will be in 2024. If you buy now, you will certainly make money if you hold for 10 years and decide to sell in 2024.
From the Record:
Notice of possible closure goes to 3K Trump Taj Mahal workers
The owner of the Trump Taj Mahal casino has sent notices to more than 3,100 employees warning it could be shut down in November.
Trump Entertainment Resorts told The Associated Press it filed the notices earlier this week, saying it could close Nov. 13.
The company filed for bankruptcy on Tuesday and threatened to close the Taj Majal if it doesn’t get concessions from its unions.
Local 54 of the Unite-HERE union says Trump Entertainment wants Taj Mahal workers to give up their health insurance and pension plans in return for keeping the company open. But union president Bob McDevitt said that even if the union agreed to those conditions — which it won’t — the savings would amount to $11 million a year, which won’t help a company drowning under more than $285 million worth of debt.
In its bankruptcy filing in Delaware, Trump Entertainment listed assets of no more than $50,000, and liabilities of between $100 million to $500 million.
The company missed its quarterly tax payment due last month, and says it doesn’t have the cash to make an interest payment to lenders due at the end of the month. It also says both its Internet gambling partners have taken steps to end their contracts with Trump Entertainment.
Xolepa,
You remind me of a realtor that told me that town “A” was bleeding wealth. That was just before the 2008 crash. For every one of these so-called people that have this vast storage of cash, there are two more that are trying to keep up appearances. Of course there are people with money. But I can tell you this: the ones that are trying to push a $600,000 sh1t box are definitely not the ones with the money. And it’ll be a cold f.ucking day in he11 where someone convinces me that buying the sh1t box at that price is the new normal.
Michael,
Whether you realize it or not, housing prices are cheap right now compared to what they will be in 2024. If you buy now, you will certainly make money if you hold for 10 years and decide to sell in 2024.
What if I bought in 2006 and sell in 2016? Will I certainly make money?
JJ,
Over the really long term no one makes money on housing as it generally just keeps up with inflation.
THIS! This is why I was ready to get off the fence by 2011. Continuing to sit on the sideline in cash was diminishing returns once the “L” bottom was in. I was able to get a better house than I was renting, and buy inflation protection. Rent for a similar house in my neighborhood (and I’m surprised at the number of rentals available near me given the relative prices) is right around my PITI.
BTW, watch your back… http://news.yahoo.com/fema-wants-least-5-8m-sandy-aid-repaid-060103482.html
Looking out for you, brother.
chifi – He’s the Oracle of Passaic County.
Where the fcuk do you come off saying sh!t such as this? You may be correct, but to state it as a certainty is plain hubris……
My “other” condo, actually Townhome, bought in 1984 in Robbinsville (Foxmoor), for $92,000 and sold in 1999 for $92,000. We know I got hosed on my 1987 Condo, and I spent $195k on my current house in 1993 and put in $200k and it is worth about $400k..so I have owned and been landlord in this state since 1984 and have not “made” a penny in real estate.
[99] 223
Also, who considers LBI south jersey? Seriously. Who does that?
Finally, I can easily afford it but for a bunch of reasons (namely kids and friends), I go to OCMD. You think I’d drive down there if I didn’t have a reason?
Extend the 7 to Secaucus.
Sounds like JJ’s code for scamming B&T chicks in NYC at some seedy bar on Bleecker Street in the 1980’s…..
grim says:
September 12, 2014 at 5:09 pm
Extend the 7 to Secaucus.
Headline of the year:
Man dies at sp3rm bank after 4th donation in 10 days
Foreclosure constipation.
Aurora in NJ?
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 88
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 12 2309 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2014 Sep 12 2302 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 – Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
grim – You’re giving chifi a chubby.
Extend the 7 to Secaucus.
7 Train Latina Cuckh0lding – could be a commercially successful p0rn series.
The Human 7 Train
The Taking of Pelham 1, 2, 7
Debbie Does the 7 Train
I like you condo, but this makes no sense. First, condos and townhouses are the crap of real estate. Nothing more than money makers for developers. You really don’t own land, and pay for it like you do.
Second, you are telling me that you bought a single family home in 93 and didn’t make a dollar? Where did you buy? I’m having trouble understanding this? You bought at a great time, so it is not making sense to me. You put 200,000 into your home with nothing to show for it? That’s more than the house cost you to buy. Really lost me right here.
1987 Condo says:
September 12, 2014 at 4:21 pm
My “other” condo, actually Townhome, bought in 1984 in Robbinsville (Foxmoor), for $92,000 and sold in 1999 for $92,000. We know I got hosed on my 1987 Condo, and I spent $195k on my current house in 1993 and put in $200k and it is worth about $400k..so I have owned and been landlord in this state since 1984 and have not “made” a penny in real estate.
When an asset keeps up with inflation, IMO, that means you are making money. The other alternative is losing money. Yes, long term, houses never really gain true value. But you are telling me that buying a property in Ridgewood in 1970 for 70,000 and then selling the property in 2005 for 1.5 million isn’t great, then I don’t know what is. That’s your retirement right there.
Sure when you look at housing prices long term and adjust them for inflation, you will not really see a gain in true value, but that is deceiving. If you played the cycles of the real estate right, meaning buy low/sell high, you will indeed make a crap load off real estate. If you bought a home from 2011- to present, you indeed did buy low. Now you just have to patiently wait for the market to get hot again to sell.
Chi, sure there are no guarantees. Anything can happen. But this is as damn close to a guarantee that you are going to get. This is 90’s pricing right now. We prob won’t see the enormous bubble of the early 2000’s, but you def will see something like the 80’s market in 10 years.
jj says:
September 12, 2014 at 3:45 pm
Over the really long term no one makes money on housing as it generally just keeps up with inflation.
Jersey surburbs are even worse. Unless you were buying in Hipster Williamsburg or Gramercy Park these last 30 years you did not make a killing
chicagofinance says:
September 12, 2014 at 3:42 pm
Where the fcuk do you come off saying sh!t such as this? You may be correct, but to state it as a certainty is plain hubris……
Lol…I like that. It’s much better than passion fruit or idiot.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 4:14 pm
chifi – He’s the Oracle of Passaic County.
Where the fcuk do you come off saying sh!t such as this? You may be correct, but to state it as a certainty is plain hubris……
Come on Eddie, that’s a terrible example. You are comparing buying low (now), to buying at the height of the biggest bubble in the past 100 years. You can’t expect to have an increase in price 10 years after purchasing in a giant bubble. You can def expect to be buying low when you purchase a property 10 years after a bubble. You def expect for prices to increase 10 years later, or 20 years after the last bubble ended. It’s all about the cycle. Buying at the right time maximizes profit. Buying at the wrong time kills profit, but if you hold the property long enough, you will get your money back and some.
Fast Eddie says:
September 12, 2014 at 4:09 pm
Michael,
Whether you realize it or not, housing prices are cheap right now compared to what they will be in 2024. If you buy now, you will certainly make money if you hold for 10 years and decide to sell in 2024.
What if I bought in 2006 and sell in 2016? Will I certainly make money?
130- why? Inflation says so. You think all those wealthy foreigners buying on both coasts are idiots? You think they are buying because they think prices will be lower in 10 years? You think these investment firms buying dirt cheap real estate from 2011-2013 don’t know what they are doing? They are making money. They are investing.
I maxed out on how much money I could borrow in 2011 to buy a house. I knew long term it’s a great move to have a super low 30 year mortgage. By year 15, I will laugh at that mortgage payment. I plan on living in the home long term. So I will never ever pay a single dollar more to pay that loan off early. Money is better off in the stock market than paying off a low cost mortgage. Or better off saving that money and purchasing another income property. I just feel the stock market will be on an historic run the next decade. It will correct, but in 10 years it will be a lot more than it is now. It’s always good to invest after an economy has been down for so long. Have to take advantage of the situation.
Oh, Passion Fruit. You’re not allowed to like, drive a car, or go out unsupervised, right?
When an asset keeps up with inflation, IMO, that means you are making money.
You left out the next line, which brings meaning to that sentence. In the next sentence I stated that it’s better than losing money on an asset. If you aren’t losing money, you are making money.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 12, 2014 at 9:36 pm
Oh, Passion Fruit. You’re not allowed to like, drive a car, or go out unsupervised, right?
When an asset keeps up with inflation, IMO, that means you are making money.
It’s like this. A guy that didn’t lose a thousand dollars a year for thirty years to inflation is now thirty-thousand dollars richer.
Also, my main reason for buying as opposed to renting. Renting, you get your ass kicked by inflation. Unless, you are in rent control. That’s basically robbing the landlord.
3 week wait for the new iphone? This is crazy.
No, he’s the fcuking village idiot.
“He’s the Oracle of Passaic County.”
Someone please explain to the resident fcuktard that you haven’t made or lost money on RE until you market the asset.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/duff-mckagan-guns-n-capital-09292011.html#r=rss
You always have something nice to say. I take it as a compliment. You know how many people in history have been called idiots and with time, turned out to be right. They called me an idiot in 2003, when this 23 year old was telling anyone he knew that was buying a house not to do it. They didn’t take a 23 year old serious. Said I’m too young to know anything about real estate. Now I have changed my position on real estate to a buy, and I’m being called an idiot again.
Nothing for nothing, some of you are obsessed with negativity. It blinds you from seeing the positive. You so want the economy to crash, but it’s not happening. Even if it crashes, life goes on. People of Argentina are still living, and their economy has been a joke for decades. Hell, they placed second in the World Cup. Life goes on. Stop concentrating on the negatives. Realize what comes up, goes down. What goes down, comes back up. If the market didn’t crash in 2008, it’s not crashing anytime soon. The conditions were terrible back then, but we survived it. Now be smart, take advantage of the situation, and make that money make money. Has been a great time to be an investor, esp in the stock market the past 5 years.
What’s funny. Some people have been so negative about the stock market and economy the past 5 years, they totally missed out on the stock market run. Now they are doing the same thing with real estate. The window of opportunity for buying cheap real estate with low rates will soon be gone. Only when the window closes will you realize it. Yes, the inventory is tight. But that should tell you it’s a good time to buy. You have investors out there like hawks buying up the properties before they hit the market. Fast Eddie, you need to be the hawk if you want find something. Right now, you are a vulture expecting a home to fall in your lap. You need to work hard to find real estate. It doesn’t fall in your lap around northern jersey. Too many people, not enough properties. Very safe place to own real estate. It’s always tight inventory. That’s why we didn’t get killed in the bubble like other parts of the country. Didn’t rise as much and didn’t decrease as much. If you take the ghettos out of the northern nj stats, you will see that the house prices have been pretty stable in the towns that you are looking in.
Uzis for Tykes says:
September 12, 2014 at 10:35 pm
No, he’s the fcuking village idiot.
“He’s the Oracle of Passaic County.”