From CNBC:
Millennials start leaving Mom and Dad’s nest
As the U.S. economy improves and adds jobs, younger Americans—millennials—are slowly starting to move out from their parents’ basements, where a record number of them have been living for the past few years. They’re not buying homes as much as they are renting them, but how much and where is crucial to know in order to understand where the housing recovery is headed.
Over the past year, all the growth in net household formations has been among renters, according to the U.S. Census. For those 35 years old and younger, their home ownership rate has fallen from 44 percent to 36 percent over the past decade, which is why construction of multi-family apartments is at the highest level in a quarter-century this year.
But back to that migration from the basement. How big is it? Millennials will spend $1.6 trillion on home purchases and $600 billion on rent over the next five years, more per person than any other generation with more of them opting for more affordable rents versus paying the big price tags to buy homes, according to a new report from The Demand Institute, a non-profit think tank operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen. Millennials will form just over eight million new households, albeit most of them rental households.
The report found the millennials do aspire to home ownership, just as previous generations did, and they will be important drivers of the housing market. The difference between them and other generations, however, is that their time horizon for home ownership will be shorter, and their aspirations have been altered somewhat simply by the fact that they came of age in the Great Recession.
Frist!
Yesterday’s lead concerning the aging boomers and the lack of modified housing to accommodate them piqued my interest. I’m going to see if there’s a geriatric motif assembled yet.
Nom – The problem is that accessibility is in direct competition with development density and all the follow-on economic factors associated with that. For example, garages. Easy – put all the garages on the ground floor, and put all the “first floors” on the second. Now we’ve accommodated parking without losing a square inch of land, and the unit sizes are the same. The challenge is this pretty much makes every one of these units handicap inaccessible. Having to build an accessory parking structure, or including living area on the first floor, will blow the economic models out of the water, especially on the coasts.
This design usually results in a 3 level structure, bedrooms on the 3rd, which is fantastic for density and has ideal economics. This is why just about 95% of all townhouse developments use this approach now. When you do see it collapsed to two levels, the cost generally rises significantly, and the design of the town home begins to shift a bit to something that resembles chained single families, and less row house.
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has filed a BP Oil spill claim for sick pelicans. I guess they watched 60 minutes and found out that they’ll pay anybody.
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/09/16/minn-dnr-requests-compensation-from-bp-gulf-oil-spill/
“The chemical dispersant Corexit is one of the main weapons used in the cleanup. It was poured into the gulf to help break up the oil slicks.
But not only did the spill leave pelicans and other water birds covered in oil, but the chemicals used to disperse the crude is now turning up in the pelicans’ blood, beaks and egg shells.”
Shorter?
The report found the millennials do aspire to home ownership, just as previous generations did, and they will be important drivers of the housing market. The difference between them and other generations, however, is that their time horizon for home ownership will be shorter
5 – You want a laugh? The metric is called “Homeowner Survival Rate” in the new homes business.
I think this one is very good, wish it was updated:
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=194717&channelID=311
[6] grim – expat scratches head more So is the the “shorter home ownership horizon” a shorter time until they make a home purchase, or a shorter amount of time in the home once it is purchased?
[7] OK, I get it now. Thanks.
And by 2020 they will be looking to move into a home like I have always said, creating the next upward cycle in real estate.
“But back to that migration from the basement. How big is it? Millennials will spend $1.6 trillion on home purchases and $600 billion on rent over the next five years, more per person than any other generation with more of them opting for more affordable rents versus paying the big price tags to buy homes, according to a new report from The Demand Institute, a non-profit think tank operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen. Millennials will form just over eight million new households, albeit most of them rental households.”
Well if a home occupier’s average stay was 13 years through 2007, It has to be somewhere around 20 years now. The best part is you don’t have to pay your mortgage for the last 7;-)
based on a long-run calculation that averaged the available data over the years 1985 through 2007
The Passion of the Fruit is back on his mobius strip.
And by 2020 they will be looking to move into a home like I have always said, creating the next upward cycle in real estate.
Yesterday I received a call on a real estate sign I have in front of a house in Montville. Caller was Joe Guidice.
while back ya’ll got very angry that a FedEx person was making more than minimum wage.
UPS is hiring additional 90k people this year, which is 40,000 more than last yr
Another Fun Day on Wall Street!!!!
Occupy Wall Street will be marking their third anniversary with a series of protests as noted below. Expect a heavy police presence with access to the area will be compromised by police actions to control the crowds.
As a reminder, these events can quickly escalate to violent and confrontational situations.
OWS, Zuccotti Park: Breakfast/Kick Off 3rd Anniversary of OWS.
OWS, Meet at Zuccotti Park then MARCH to Big Red Cube/Financial District. March on Wall Street.
OWS, Federal Hall (26 Wall Street) Speak-Out at Federal Hall.
OWS Wall Street Bull. Take the Bull Rally and Action.
So is the the “shorter home ownership horizon” a shorter time until they make a home purchase, or a shorter amount of time in the home once it is purchased?
I thought the latter, because the first part of the statement would make no sense at all for anybody but a pom pom waving cheerleader to say.
Main article, here is the source of some of the stats:
http://www.demandinstitute.org/sites/default/files/blog-uploads/millennials-and-their-homes-final.pdf
Grim – What’s your take on the “Demand Institute”? They seem a little NARry/Schilly to me. For example, when they say:
“Millennials will spend $1.6 trillion on home purchases and $600 billion on rent over the next five years”
that sounds like Millenials (ages 18-29 in 2013, per the report) will be spending almost 3-to-1 more money on buying versus renting, but I suspect that the $1.6 trillion number is a leveraged number based on purchase price which is not an out of pocket number like rent. If that’s the case it would be apples to oranges, right?
[14] irrelevant and inaccurate,
The only time I would ever feel angry that someone was paid too much would be if I discovered you were employed by the feds or PA government, or by a company in which I held stock.
My wife and I were at Boston Latin’s curriculum night last night and boy do they have their sh1t together when it comes to keeping kids on the rails. All 7th graders (sixies, as they’re called because they are in their first of 6 years there) are divided into 3 clusters, each cluster has it’s own common core of teachers so across 5 main subject areas all the kids have the same 5 teachers and they get together to discuss each kid’s overall progress. Each teacher has their own web site, they all use Google classroom, Google drive, something called Aspen for grade reporting, before, after school, and study hall extra help available in all subjects, etc. If a kid really starts to slip they have “Saturday Success School” where they can come in Saturdays for even more help. All courses require separate 1.5″ 3 ring binders divided into a set number of sections and they get graded on their notebook organization as well.
I particularly like this rule that applies only to Pre-Algebra:
1. Complete every homework assignment – Get 2% added to your quarterly average.
2. Miss 1-2 homework assignments – No effect on quarterly average.
3. Miss 3+ homework assignments – each one lowers your quarterly average by 1%
[15] JJ,
You have all the fun. I wish they held a protest in downtown West Chester and blocked traffic. Then I could pistol-whip a couple of them for fun.
[19] expat,
I went to UCF’s night last week and it sounded very similar. So now my 6th grader has to do her work on google docs and upload to google drive. Class structure is similar as is grading and work organization. They use the Soc. Studies class to teach note-taking and research skills. Note-taking was never taught in my day and I so wish it had been.
Sign of the times: I have to call her IT person and find out what she is accessing so I can replicate it in the home set up.
[19] expat,
UCF doesn’t have the Saturday sessions though. I wish they did.
In fact, this year is the first year they are keeping the middle school library open after hours but it was done largely to accommodate the students who stay late for clubs and sports and who take the late “Activities” buses home. I pushed to get them to permit kids to meet with tutors during the library after-hours but got the Heisman.
Rolling Jubilee has raised money to buy portfolios of medical debt on the secondary market for pennies on the dollar—and then has forgiven it rather than collect from its debtors. The project went viral back in November 2012, and to date has erased almost $15 million in medical debt.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/education/shame-outrage-group-takes-action-against-student-debt-crisis-n204926
I looked at some other Demand institute article, about how real estate is widening the wealth divide, because rich people live in expensive areas, and poor people live in cheap houses. Fundamentally, the Demand Institute has a problem distinguishing cause and effect. I suspect this is just the Conference Board trying to widen its net of subscribers, so that anyone “selling stuff” will support them to get “insights” on future demand for their stuff.
23 – That’s an awesome idea.
As a Parent sounds great. Do kids today really have to do all that work to get ahead in life. This is a serious question. I am asking only cause most of folks my level went to average colleges and average high schools and had ok grades. Meanwhile I do notice as we interview junior folk we are much more demanding on their GPA, class activities, where they went to school blah blah blah.
When do kids be kids anymore. Do you know how long it takes to master PacMan and Pin Ball and become a good four shooter. I mean real skills. Do you know my friend could drive a stick shift, while drinking a beer and rolling a joint all at same time. These are important skills you learn in HS.
Heck I recall some “brainiac was suprised when he lost the key to his car at the beach and my brother and I hotwired car we were like seriously, why is it school is so demanding today.
As a kid this all sounds horrible. I rather slack off and party till 30 them marry a rich girl. My plan B was to marry rich. But my amazing good looks and being hung like a donkey far overshadowed academics and caused many a firm to shower me in money.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 17, 2014 at 9:27 am
My wife and I were at Boston Latin’s curriculum night last night and boy do they have their sh1t together when it comes to keeping kids on the rails. All 7th graders (sixies, as they’re called because they are in their first of 6 years there) are divided into 3 clusters, each cluster has it’s own common core of teachers so across 5 main subject areas all the kids have the same 5 teachers and they get together to discuss each kid’s overall progress. Each teacher has their own web site, they all use Google classroom, Google drive, something called Aspen for grade reporting, before, after school, and study hall extra help available in all subjects, etc. If a kid really starts to slip they have “Saturday Success School” where they can come in Saturdays for even more help. All courses require separate 1.5″ 3 ring binders divided into a set number of sections and they get graded on their notebook organization as well.
I particularly like this rule that applies only to Pre-Algebra:
1. Complete every homework assignment – Get 2% added to your quarterly average.
2. Miss 1-2 homework assignments – No effect on quarterly average.
3. Miss 3+ homework assignments – each one lowers your quarterly average by 1%
re: Headline story of Millennials buying houses.
Check out this “lice chauffeur” he is about ready to plunk down $100k large on a $500k Cape in Massapequa.
http://diehipster.wordpress.com/2014/09/16/the-king-of-infinite-leisure-time/
I totally agree. For such an advanced society, we have taken the fun out of life. It’s a joke. Every school is so demanding it’s insane….and for what? There’s not enough good jobs, so why not let a good portion of kids actually get to be kids. We want ghetto kids to go to college, for what? They won’t get the job even if they do graduate from college.
It’s criminal to take away a childhood when you only get one chance to be a kid and have fun. Now every hs student is forced into AP classes and is basically doing the equivalent of college level work in the 80s. I ask once again, why? What purpose does this serve? If we lower the standard of living due to lower education, who gives a fuc!. So they won’t have all this material bs, does it really matter? People lost focus on what life is about. If you are constantly working, what is the purpose of life? You are always miserable and hardly have any fun. These students become zombies as adults that do not know how to have fun, only know how to work and make money. This world is bs. We are the dominant species, so wtf do we have to work so hard for? Compete against ourselves? It doesn’t make sense. As long as you have food and shelter, who gives a crap about money. Life is one big trap now. Work your whole life to just die. Mine as well have fun before you die instead of being stressed out for no reason whatsoever but to accumulate massive wealth that you can’t take with you and most likely don’t even need. I mean how many people die leaving so much money behind. It’s insane. That’s years of work for what? To give to uncle sam when you die? What a bunch of dumba$$es we are.
jj says:
September 17, 2014 at 10:03 am
As a Parent sounds great. Do kids today really have to do all that work to get ahead in life. This is a serious question. I am asking only cause most of folks my level went to average colleges and average high schools and had ok grades. Meanwhile I do notice as we interview junior folk we are much more demanding on their GPA, class activities, where they went to school blah blah blah.
When do kids be kids anymore. Do you know how long it takes to master PacMan and Pin Ball and become a good four shooter. I mean real skills. Do you know my friend could drive a stick shift, while drinking a beer and rolling a joint all at same time. These are important skills you learn in HS.
Heck I recall some “brainiac was suprised when he lost the key to his car at the beach and my brother and I hotwired car we were like seriously, why is it school is so demanding today.
As a kid this all sounds horrible. I rather slack off and party till 30 them marry a rich girl. My plan B was to marry rich. But my amazing good looks and being hung like a donkey far overshadowed academics and caused many a firm to shower me in money.
28- Let the geniuses take care of scholarly learning. The entire population doesn’t have to be made up of scholars, which is what society is striving for. Talk about a utopia. Last time education had it right was in the 80s. When an AP class was really filled with gifted kids. Now everyone is gifted. What a joke.
Pretty much fun in School at college level peaked in the 1970s. From 1980 on it has been a downward trend.
Aids and Herpes, raising the drinking age to 21, additional work load and more demanding classes slowly killed it over time. Dont get me wrong the early 1980s was party time still but by end of 1980s college was no longer what it was initally ment to be. Add in the asian and indians overwelming colleges in the 1990s and college is now basically a sucky place.
Michael says:
September 17, 2014 at 10:29 am
28- Let the geniuses take care of scholarly learning. The entire population doesn’t have to be made up of scholars, which is what society is striving for. Talk about a utopia. Last time education had it right was in the 80s. When an AP class was really filled with gifted kids. Now everyone is gifted. What a joke.
Grim [7];
That is an interesting chart. The thing is, I don’t see that supporting the industry line that most people own a home for seven years (thus one should take an ARM, not a FRM). The pitch is that circumstances or just restlessness set in at that time, and many people pick up and move, if circumstances haven’t forced their hand sooner. To support that argument, you’d expect to see a spike at year 7 (or whatever the year happens to be).
Rather, that chart simply tells me that a cumulative histogram catches up with 50% at a given year, so we can say that “most” people move within XX years of buying. Ho hum.
What is interesting to me is the distinction between first time and move-up. Hhaving sat out much of the bubble, I really consider that I’ve just skipped the starter home, and what I’ve bought — my first ownership — to be my move-up home. Most people parlay equity + appreciation in their starter home to finance the downpayment on the move-up; in my case it was made possible by the bubble collapse in lieu of start home appreciation.
are teachers overpaid at boston Latin ?
Well said!! Couldn’t agree more.
jj says:
September 17, 2014 at 10:35 am
Pretty much fun in School at college level peaked in the 1970s. From 1980 on it has been a downward trend.
Aids and Herpes, raising the drinking age to 21, additional work load and more demanding classes slowly killed it over time. Dont get me wrong the early 1980s was party time still but by end of 1980s college was no longer what it was initally ment to be. Add in the asian and indians overwelming colleges in the 1990s and college is now basically a sucky place.
[32] irrelevant,
I have some insight into that and I would say no, they aren’t overpaid.
Yours, on the other hand . . .
JJ is certainly right about college. I was watching the movie Animal House on TV the other day, probably the umpteenth time. What amazes me is how indicative and parallel to my actual fraternity years the scenes were. Our frat was considered an ‘Animal’ house on campus, along with one other. This was way before the movie came out. The things I saw or heard about would make front page headlines these days.
But in the long run, we produced doctors, lawyers, engineers, politicians and businessman. Hardly a bad apple rolled out.
Interesting development:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-minnesota-insurer-leaves-obamacare-185046511.html
Insurers don’t, and are not supposed to, take on too much from any one cohort, so my first inclination was that their product was so popular, it threatened to unbalance their risk profile. Not so. Rather, they found the cohort simply sucked too much of the available resources, kind of like the 80/20 rule. So you either raise costs or cut them off.
And speaking of cut off, its off to the mines. . .
“Peter Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal, will pay each of the 24 winners of his Thiel Fellowship $100,000 not to attend college for two years and to develop business ideas instead.”
[35] xolepa
Same here. We even had a version of D Day who rode his motorcycle in the house. Guy was from my hometown too.
Moose,
Exactly why the article is bunk. Millenials have no ownership, no equity, no decent jobs and high student loan debt. Their barrier to home ownership is huge bc of high prices that never truly allowed to fall to sane levels. This is article will be written again in 20 years and it will be about nearing middle age millenials who never helped the housing market..they are generallly f-ed
(38) The other ‘Animal’ house on campus had a few memorable events, like soaking their pledges who had to be lying down on the first floor, with syrup and corn flakes thrown from the top floor. The pledges had to wash it off by swimming across the Raritan. This house also had a motorcyclist gun it up the staircase and every April, that pledge class had to truck in sand to cover their wraparound brick veranda 4 inches deep with sand. Then the entire frat partied for 3 days straight – it was called the Sunova Beach weekend.
Well said!! Couldn’t agree more. Just think, this current generation will never have these kind of memories of their college days or high school days. All they will remember is how much work they did. Really feel bad for them.
It’s like you stated, everyone turned out okay. So why do we keep increasing the rigor? For what purpose? How many jobs really require this kind of rigor? Feel bad for any kid growing up today, should dub them the “no fun generation”. Soon, they won’t even know how to have fun, just like their parents.
jj says:
September 17, 2014 at 10:35 am
Pretty much fun in School at college level peaked in the 1970s. From 1980 on it has been a downward trend.
Aids and Herpes, raising the drinking age to 21, additional work load and more demanding classes slowly killed it over time. Dont get me wrong the early 1980s was party time still but by end of 1980s college was no longer what it was initally ment to be. Add in the asian and indians overwelming colleges in the 1990s and college is now basically a sucky place.
Rutgers is full of communists. No wonder the twitter bot can’t think he went to an indoctrination mill.
I did the same thing. My current home is basically a move up. I just skipped the starter home thanks to the bubble bursting and providing me with an environment in late 2011 that had low rates and not much competition from other buyers. Beautiful thing for this millennial. I plan on staying in my home for a long long time. That was our ( my wife and I) plan from day one. Save costs big time long term. We have a 30 year mortgage. In 16 years when I’m 50, that mortgage payment will feel almost like nothing.
“What is interesting to me is the distinction between first time and move-up. Hhaving sat out much of the bubble, I really consider that I’ve just skipped the starter home, and what I’ve bought — my first ownership — to be my move-up home. Most people parlay equity + appreciation in their starter home to finance the downpayment on the move-up; in my case it was made possible by the bubble collapse in lieu of start home appreciation”
And Dumb things you did you learned. One dumb thing we did was we were attempting to study for finals but I have the attention span of a small fly with ADA so anyhow we go up to fifth floor which was faculity only TA areas that someone left door open. We find a full size fridge that apparantly was in hallway wating to be removed.
Well fire staircase is five flights down and that gray cement on the bottom. We figure if we get it straight in it might not hit any stairrails and fll the full five flights and hit the concrete.
Well we pushed it over, the full five flights and a full size fridge made the loudest boom I ever heard and I was five flights up. The library was dead quiet and man of man we took off we get back to dorm and buddy goes you know it was like a 2-3 second drop what if someone came through door on bottom right after we pushed it. Wellllll that actually bothered me and I learned my lesson and never pushed a fridge off a five story building again!!
Speaking of communists, this whole nfl bs is a joke. Since when is it the employee’s problem to get involved with domestic situations. Since when is it the communities job to tell people how to act with their wife or kids. If she is still married to a man that punched her in the face, that is her problem. Peterson wants to set his kid straight, I applaud him. At least his kids won’t be growing up as some spoiled rich punk like p diddy’s kid.
Juice Box says:
September 17, 2014 at 11:19 am
Rutgers is full of communists. No wonder the twitter bot can’t think he went to an indoctrination mill.
Re: CEQ [Collegiate Entertainment Quotient]
You could afford to F*** off a little (or a lot) when the whole 4-year shebang cost about as much as a new car (or less at a state school). Now that students are being saddled with mortgage payments to finance their [ahem] education, you have to be a special kind of stupid to not seriously look at the costs and make sure they get serious bang for their buck.
BTW, follow the money. Billions of dollars — private and government — funneling into (what are predominantly) leftist and tax-exempt institutions.
Rutgers back then was called the Berkeley of the East. It had a minority group of progressives who were very active and even more vocal. But, no one bothered or cared about them unless they got in our face. At that point, they were chewed up and spit out. The majority of campus was neutral. However, the majority of the frats, save the ‘Jewish’ ones, were very, very conservative. And half the matriculating students belonged to frats in that time.
Every September, post Labor Day period, I am reminded of my college years. It must be the smell in the air.
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Mike,
You are on the older end of millenial gen, plus you had Granny providing instant equity. Your case is not same as millenials 5-10 years younger who had no such start in young adulthood. Open your eyes.
re: # 45- “Peterson wants to set his kid straight, I applaud him.”
I think you need more of a whuppin than his kids.
“In 16 years when I’m 50, that mortgage payment will feel almost like nothing.”
Don’t be so sure about that P-Fruit.
My mortgage payment on the multi, which started in 2004, feels just as large and over-sized as it ever did. If it wasn’t for the ultra progs willing to spend an extra $1,000 a month to live near a farmers market, train station and two hipster bakeries, I might really be struggling to keep up with the tax increases which mostly go to make sure that the teachers can compete with those at Boston Latin even if the results are much closer to the likes of Dickinson.
I remember visiting (getting babysat) by one of my 6 siblings up at Rutgers in the early 80s and seeing 8 pledges jogging up Easton Avenue completely naked. I also witnessed the ZBT house destroy the roof of the porch of the CROW house with what was essentially a pipe bomb made of gunpowder reclaimed from a handfull of cherry bombs.
The NFL is a tax exempt organization, therefore we have a say in how it’s run as our taxes make up the money that they’re not paying on their profits. Same thing with Walmart really, since we fund the welfare that their employees need to eat and pay the rent because idiots like those that frequent this blog think free markets are great and corporations are benevolent.
Michael says:
September 17, 2014 at 11:28 am
Speaking of communists, this whole nfl bs is a joke. Since when is it the employee’s problem to get involved with domestic situations. Since when is it the communities job to tell people how to act with their wife or kids.
NO inflation for you Michael, your mortgage payment will continue to feel like a rock around your neck.
“The last time the U.S. economy experienced a damaging wage-price spiral was the late 1970s. That’s two generations ago”
http://fortune.com/2014/09/17/janet-yellen-vs-the-inflation-zombies/
1) the NFL team owners pay taxes, so what’s the problem?
2) If this blog is full of idiots, why do you feel the need to hang around?
Ottoman says:
September 17, 2014 at 12:14 pm
The NFL is a tax exempt organization, therefore we have a say in how it’s run as our taxes make up the money that they’re not paying on their profits. Same thing with Walmart really, since we fund the welfare that their employees need to eat and pay the rent because idiots like those that frequent this blog think free markets are great and corporations are benevolent.
Otto [53];
Same thing with Walmart really, since we fund the welfare that their employees need to eat and pay the rent because idiots like those that frequent this blog think free markets are great and corporations are benevolent.
Seems to me that people who really believe in free markets also believe in scaling back the welfare state, which — if implemented — would undermine your argument for meddling in WalMart’s or any other business’s decisions. So why is it people like yourself won’t agree letting all sorts of entities (like GM, or AIG, or the person too lazy to work for their living or make themselves more valuable than an arbitrary labor price floor) rise or fall of their own accord?
Is it because you’re just too addicted to running other people’s lives for them?
If someone says, X Y Z program is (another) form a corporate welfare such as the ones just mentioned. They are correct. However, they refuse to say “let’s end that program(s).” which makes them stupid, hypocritical, or both.
#55 – what do you call a blog full of liberals?
“#55 – what do you call a blog full of liberals?”
Social Security?
The best way to stop the student loan debt crisis is to stop offering students loans.
Saw unleaded with a 2 handle on Morris Avenue in Union this morning. Time to bring back the Hummer.
Can you copy and paste the entire article? I’m having trouble accessing it.
Juice Box says:
September 17, 2014 at 12:15 pm
NO inflation for you Michael, your mortgage payment will continue to feel like a rock around your neck.
“The last time the U.S. economy experienced a damaging wage-price spiral was the late 1970s. That’s two generations ago”
http://fortune.com/2014/09/17/janet-yellen-vs-the-inflation-zombies/
Lots of Gun rights folks are whipping up the crowds behind the scenes….
There’s a lady named Shaneen Allen who is being charged by the same Prosecutor in Atlantic county and not offered PTI. People on the Gun Rights forums have been yelling about how Ray Rice was offered PTI after committing a violent crime but Shaneen was offered a plea deal where she would spend 3 years in jail.
They are hoping that public pressure brought on by both cases will force a zealously anti-gun prosecutor to resign.
They’ve been complaining about the Ray Rice incident way before the video came out.
Carrying a gun way worse than beating your wife: Column
Glenn Harlan Reynolds 8:02 p.m. EDT August 10, 2014
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/08/10/ray-rice-shaneen-allen-gun-column/13862831/
Michael says:
September 17, 2014 at 11:28 am
Speaking of communists, this whole nfl bs is a joke. Since when is it the employee’s problem to get involved with domestic situations. Since when is it the communities job to tell people how to act with their wife or kids. If she is still married to a man that punched her in the face, that is her problem. Peterson wants to set his kid straight, I applaud him. At least his kids won’t be growing up as some spoiled rich punk like p diddy’s kid.
There is no right or wrong in this debate. If you believe kids shouldn’t be spanked, that’s your philosophy. If someone believes their kids should be spanked, that is their philosophy. Either option is better than letting your kid do whatever he/she wants. Just my two cents. I doubt adrian peterson is some child abuser like they are making him out to be.
Juice Box says:
September 17, 2014 at 11:50 am
re: # 45- “Peterson wants to set his kid straight, I applaud him.”
I think you need more of a whuppin than his kids.
Anti-gun douche Bryan Miller says she deserves what she gets and the prosecutor, James McClain should make an example of her.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/story/opinion/columnists/2014/08/09/commentary-keep-state-guns-nj/13834245/
“The good news is that, by working to promote attention to this case, pro-gun zealots, such as Allen’s lawyer, have inadvertently done an important public education service, as the case’s notoriety may make it less likely Pennsylvanians holding permits to carry concealed and loaded handguns in public will bring them across Delaware River bridges, thereby making themselves and New Jersey safer from gun violence.”
Lib,
Exactly. Get out of the f-ing racket entirely. Problem is the politicians and connected businessman all have their fingers in Sallie Mae’s pie..err so to speak.
Anytime I believe that something needs to change with the govt., I think of that scene in Shawshank where Andy tells warden that everything changes, everything stops and warden replies that nothing changes, nothing stops or your @ss will feel like it was f-ed by a train. Any change, where a politicians pocketbook gets hit, will be squashed immediately. True change only occurs violently.
The NFL BS is just that, BS. Roger Goodell’s # 1 job responsibility is to keep the NFL a money maker and he answers to the owners…no one else. Their intention from the beginning is to bury these stories so the NFL’s image is not tarnished. Peterson is most unlucky in that his story broke when everyone is oversensitive to the issue.
“Retailers are betting it will be a merry Christmas this year, as seasonal hiring is expected to significantly outpace that seen in 2013.
According to a report released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, retailers could add more than 800,000 seasonal workers in the last three months of the year. The last time that happened was in 1999.”
@CNBC: Merry Christmas! Hiring may hit dot-com boom level
30 Year (13)-
Do you have a jail as one of your listings?
re # 64 – Spank?
The good people of Montgomery County Texas indicted him on felony charges. Surely you don’t think those God fearing conservatives deep in the heart of Texas do know the difference between spanking and whuppin?
I’m a millennial. I might be the oldest, but I still am a millennial. My granny didn’t provide instant equity. I busted my butt to save for a down payment. Why are you taking away credit for something I created. Does my grandma not have other grandchildren? Sorry that I’m a go-getter that bought an investment at a very young age that made a lot of money. Dont’ take that away from me.
Bystander says:
September 17, 2014 at 11:37 am
Mike,
You are on the older end of millenial gen, plus you had Granny providing instant equity. Your case is not same as millenials 5-10 years younger who had no such start in young adulthood. Open your eyes.
But inflation can’t happen, just like they say jobs can’t be created.
Juice still waiting for you to copy and paste that article. I have no doubts in my mind that inflation will come to wages.
anon (the good one) says:
September 17, 2014 at 1:59 pm
“Retailers are betting it will be a merry Christmas this year, as seasonal hiring is expected to significantly outpace that seen in 2013.
According to a report released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, retailers could add more than 800,000 seasonal workers in the last three months of the year. The last time that happened was in 1999.”
@CNBC: Merry Christmas! Hiring may hit dot-com boom level
72- Don’t care if it’s a seasonal job, it’s a job that is being created for the need to conduct more business. It’s a sign of things improving.
re# 68 – Communists don’t celebrate Christmas.
Unleaded? Was a couple of years ago I pulled up and had a brain freeze and said “fill it up, regular, unleaded…”!
Mikhail – no need to link.
From the Fed Chairistan herself today. “Inflation is running below the 2% objective, but the Fed expects the inflation rate to move gradually back on course, she says.”
Also another key Fed takeaway: “The bank’s forecast for US growth slowing to 2.3%-2.5% in 2017 evidence it expects raising rates to restrain economy.”
Lost decade will be nothing. There is now nothing to recover.
Funny. I think I always still say that! Not as bad as the people who still refer to ATMs as MAC machines.
Also Yellen says pay no attention to the unemployment stats “there are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them,” she says. And too many are working part-time but would prefer a full-time job. And many aren’t even looking for work, but would if the economy were stronger.”
Good luck getting those hipsters to Pony up a $100k Deposit for your POS.
73.
It is temporary worthless work that creates no value in society and increases the trade deficit, it is just to sell foreign made trinkets during the holidays.
America is trinketville. Of course now the trinkets are more entertaining and more complicated, yet they still end up in the garbage in less than 5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZYY0U3pALk
#77
ha, I still call them MAC machines. This is even after my trip to Block Island back in 2003 when I asked a local where I could find a MAC machine and he had absolutely no clue what I was referring to. I never used the term ATM up to that point, so I was “You know, that bank machine which gives you money…”
Gradually means it will at some point get out of control. They will have to raise the rates high to reign in the inflation.
Juice Box says:
September 17, 2014 at 2:40 pm
Mikhail – no need to link.
From the Fed Chairistan herself today. “Inflation is running below the 2% objective, but the Fed expects the inflation rate to move gradually back on course, she says.”
Also another key Fed takeaway: “The bank’s forecast for US growth slowing to 2.3%-2.5% in 2017 evidence it expects raising rates to restrain economy.”
Lost decade will be nothing. There is now nothing to recover.
Can’t make it any simpler than this explanation.
“A new investor wrote to ask me a great question: Why, with all of the money the government is printing, haven’t we seen inflation? I thought I would share the answer with you to help you understand what’s going on with your pocket book right now.
The Short Answer: The amount of money the government has printed has not yet exceeded the money that was created by banks during periods of record low interest rates.
In other words, when you deposit money into a bank, they are allowed to keep only a fraction of that on reserve. They can lend far more money out than the amount you deposit. Here’s a gross oversimplification: If reserve requirements are low (set by the Federal Reserve), and you deposit $100,000 into your bank, the bank may only need to keep $10,000 on hand. They can then lend $90,000 out to someone, who goes and deposits it another bank. This bank can then use the money to lend out $89,000. This cycle repeats until your original $100,000 is much, much more “money” in the system. In our case alone, your deposit plus two business loans resulted in $279,000!
The government, economists, and financiers track the amount of money in the system by the type. These are often called M1, M2, or M3 money supplies. They way, they can see how much of the “money” in a nation comes from paper dollars, how much comes from bank credit, etc.
So much “money” was created when interest rates fell and consumers borrowed record amounts that when the banks shut off the lending to try and rebuild their balance sheet, that money was sucked out of the economy. Had the Federal Reserve not printed money, we would have gone into a Great Depression deflation – your house and assets would have lost value but your mortgage would have stayed the same. In other words, if you had any debt at all, you would have been totally and completely screwed.
The government turned on the printing presses to attempt to replace the bank created money, with the hope that they could take it out of the system over the next 5 to 10 years slowly, a little at a time.
This was a perfectly rational and wise response. The problem is that many people wonder whether or not Congress can control its spending. The moment the printed money starts to exceed our old money supply (printed money + bank created money), inflation begins. With the current projected deficit of $9+ trillion over the coming 10 years, that would happen and that is why people said inflation may be coming.
If Congress stops spending 1-2 years from now, inflation won’t happen despite the money we’ve printed because of the factors I’ve already described. If, however, Congress continues to spend money, inflation could destroy the value of the dollar. As I’ve posted earlier and elsewhere, if you know how to take advantage of this situation, that can be good for you, just as it will be for companies such as Coca-Cola, General Electric, or Johnson & Johnson, which make a lot of their money overseas in non-dollar countries.
Put simply, the problem isn’t the money the government has printed over the past two years. It’s the money that most investors think the government is going to print over the coming ten years that is the problem. As you can see from the chart below, actual paper money is a tiny, tiny percentage of the total “money” a nation has created at any given time. As a result of credit getting cut off, the government couldn’t print money fast enough to replace the M2 and M3 money supplies (this chart shows you up until 2005, how M2 and M3 were getting to be a larger and larger percentage of the total “money”).”
http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/inflationrate/a/why-arent-we-seeing-inflation.htm
The economy has forgot about those people a long time ago.
Juice Box says:
September 17, 2014 at 2:41 pm
Also Yellen says pay no attention to the unemployment stats “there are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them,” she says. And too many are working part-time but would prefer a full-time job. And many aren’t even looking for work, but would if the economy were stronger.”
Good luck getting those hipsters to Pony up a $100k Deposit for your PO
Mike,
Perhaps you will come realization that you were more fortunate than smart. Fine, you worked for a down payment…on a heavily discounted price that no normal buyer gets. Thanks for the lay-up, Nana..I now know exactly how the world works. You might be honest but providing that tidbit kind of discredits your bravado as ” the young savant risk taker who hit it in big real estate”
Mike you remind me of many over-privileged kids I see that were born on third base but honestly believe they hit a triple. Your circumstances provided you with an off-market below value home to purchase with no competition. Good for you but stop congratulating yourself for being such an amazing real estate seer. You were handed a very fortunate situation. Say thank you and stay humble. That is why people hate you.
Michael also skipped tax payments from all of those tips he got servicing Ridgewood MILFs, that should have made his deposit suspect. What bank gave you the old fog the mirror loan Michael?
Cumon folks Michael earned his deposit by servicing Ridgewood mommies, tax free I might add. How else does a 19 year old come up with a five figure deposit.
30-yr [13];
Why would that guy leave his real name?
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PF,
I am seriously frugal (some might call it cheap). Somehow I(we to not piss off Gator) bought my first home, in a private sale I must add, and it’s barely back to the price I paid for it. Plus, I sank about 25% of the sale price into it as improvements to keep the high rents coming in. This was October of 2004. I seriously feared I would have been priced out and renting was getting expensive and I was sick of throwing away my money. Few do as much research as I do about purchases, let alone a huge one with a $100,000 downpayment. Plus, I wanted a garden. Our proximity to the train station was pretty much our saving grace. One year into the house, it had increased in value to $650,000. At that pace, it would have been worth a million in another 18 months. I remember telling Gator this and she saying that something was horribly wrong with the picture, which is what prompted my SRS (Double-leveraged short real estate RTF) investment. Believe me, when I landed my home with its prime location in a private sale, I was the smartest guy around. Four years later, I wished first, I hadn’t bought the place. And second, I hadn’t put so much down. Would have gladly wrecked my credit to mail in the keys to start anew. And the timing would have been perfect. Instead, I had to double down (dollar cost average) into real estate. So far, my timing looks brilliant. But I know that it’s only a paper gain. Who knows if I will be proven a super idiot when housing crashes again under the weight of property taxes in the most over regulated (perhaps cause we are so blue) state in the nation.
#63 Toxic
So to defend the 2nd the TN lawyer wants to throw the 10th under the bus. It’s always fun to see gun activists cheery pick the constitution like this.
Here is an interesting one. Must be something in the Philly water. http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/09/no-daddy-no-philly-dad-catches-daughters-boyfriend-in-bedroom-shoots-him-in-head/.
re:Michael
Hey, I bought my first investment property 30 years ago at a price about 21% under market value. So, the seller can be considered the sucker. Well, if Michael bought his units at a similar discount, the sucker would have been the estate. To me, its a totally impersonal thing and commend the guy for it, not deriding him with fits of jealousy.
Listen, if he did not buy the property he would have considered himself an idiot for the rest of his life. And that property might have been sold off to a savvy RE guy who would have laughed all the way to the bank. I can mention several examples of myself being a sucker because I did not buy certain properties in the past. Could of, should of, you know. 10 years from now, we will see how many on this forum would be saying those words themselves.
[90] fabian,
Ironic on so many levels, and misleading to boot. Want some free legal advice? Don’t ever try to represent yourself.
Fabu [90];
In you zeal to protect the 10th, you would have no problem then with a state-based prohibition on free speech? Why should the 1st be any more ‘superior’ to the 10th than the 2nd in your scenario?
How about state-based racial bars if the 10th trumps the 14th? Though I would have thought that was settled law, but I guess some forget.
Holy crap! This is big brotheresque crazy. I just logged onto this “Aspen” thing at Boston Latin and you can see your kid’s grade as of right now and drill down into all the components. Like JJ said, it’s great for parents but JM&J the kids are under the gun right from the get go. My daughter’s lowest performing class is Writing where she is currently only performing at only 89.06%, which is fully supported because look at what a fcuk-up she is:
Homework (25%) : 100
Participation/Classwork(37.5%): 87.5
Quizzes(37.5%): 83.33
Gradebook average: 89.06
My wife and I don’t sweat the small stuff and , truth be known, the first two years at Latin are a free ride because colleges only care from grade 9 on. I’m sure there are some parents who are freaking out.
I’m a millennial. I might be the oldest, but I still am a millennial. My granny didn’t provide instant equity. I busted my butt to save for a down payment. Why are you taking away credit for something I created. Does my grandma not have other grandchildren? Sorry that I’m a go-getter that bought an investment at a very young age that made a lot of money. Dont’ take that away from me.
I’m a millennial too. Your patting yourself on the back for seeing something the other grandchildren didn’t? Most people sit around and wait for the grandparents to pass away. The grandchildren then split what is left to them. Instead, you scooped everyone. Kudos to you. But seriously, when you get to buy something at a 100k discount, don’t act like you are a genius. No one else around has the option of buying something for 100k less than market value. If my grandmother was willing to sell me her 500k house for 400k, I would buy it. That wouldn’t make me smart…just fortunate.
Inflation? What Inflation?
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/new-record-pound-ground-beef-tops-4-first-time
Just five years ago, in August 2009, the average price for a pound of ground beef was $2.134, according to the BLS. The price has since climbed by $1.879 per pound—or 88.1 percent.
As Professor Instapundit says, “Inflation is basically nonexistent, though, so long as you don’t eat, drive, or heat and cool your home.”
#96…well overall…food costs are pretty stable, driving is cheaper, heating is cheaper and cooling is cheaper…..
[97] But most importantly….p0rn is free.
I could see that as a big savings….doesn’t quite cover the real inflations of healthcare and College tuition!
ExPat [98];
Turns out that so few women pay for online porn that a female name on the purchasing credit card instantly triggers a fraud alert. They say it usually ends up being disputed by a disgruntled wife or mom.
ExPat [98];
It turns out that so few women actually pay for online p0rn that a female name on the purchasing credit card instant triggers a fraud alert. They find most often the charge gets disputed by a disgruntled wife or mom who had their card lifted.
I feel the tide turning on college tuition. Just like the eventual realization of people who bought too far out into the exurbs (“Wait a minute, I’m losing money out here.”) the mass consciousness is now starting to rethink the “My kids need to go to college!” mantra. At $7 million dollars per semester, it’s obvious that college is a worthless drain on capital. At 50 cents per semester it’s a no-brainer to go to college. The masses are just stupid for a very, very, long time figuring out where the line is that says, “Go back, GO BACK!!! Diminishing Returns AHEAD!!!!”
That explains it! I’ll now scour the hills and vales for a new girlfriend named Frank. Please don’t tell my wife.
It turns out that so few women actually pay for online p0rn that a female name on the purchasing credit card instant triggers a fraud alert. They find most often the charge gets disputed by a disgruntled wife or mom who had their card lifted.
Passion of the Fruit – Yes, and debt free will feel like a constant poke in the eye to me. Good luck with your SFH turned rooming house.
“In 16 years when I’m 50, that mortgage payment will feel almost like nothing.”
87 – Moose, I wasn’t taking the call seriously because the house isn’t on the market currently due to a environmental clean up. Caller says, can you email me when it is back on the market? His email had his name as a part of it.
His voice sounded like someone trying to sound like a stereotype of a NJ Italian.
Tonight it is dinner with my good friend and celebrity real estate agent who was the subject of much publicity for using a seller’s home as his love nest.
To many brushes with celebrity this week.
Garbage field has some stones. 1500 a day permit fee to film Snooki’s wedding.
http://www.nj.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2014/09/snooki_wedding_garfield_mtv.html#incart_river
theo (80)-
Don’t use the term “ATM” on Fire Island.
Just saying.
Must be that dump the Venetian. Nice view of a used car dealership and the hobos living on the Passaic river. I don’t miss my home town juice not one bit.
30 year (105)-
I woulda tapped that byotch, too. Props to your friend. Might as well put an unsellable listing to some good purpose…
When I was a realtor in NJ I used to carry by book and lockbox key and use all of the empty listings as gratis hotel rooms. I thought it was a perk of the job. Only got caught once, but it didn’t amount to anything.
I’m def fortunate for buying at the right time, but come on, I was a 19 year old in a position to buy a house. Give me some credit. How many 19 year olds were doing that in the past 40 years? I have not taken a dollar from my parents since 14 years old. I have consistently had, at the minumum, one job for the past 20 years. I payed my own college. Came out of college pretty much debt free from busting my ass. My grandmother didn’t give me a 100,000 dollar break. She gave me 25,000-50,000 off. I have not inherited anything. How many people out there inherit a big chunk of change and piss it away? You guys are def not being fair to me. In 1999, if it was such a good deal, how come my parents and everyone I talked to didn’t want me to buy the house. Everyone said go with the stock market, real estate is nothing more than a headache and you won’t make much money for the work you put into it. So give me a break already. Acknowledge that I’m not an idiot. That was a brilliant investment move. The returns on my investment say so. I don’t know many people that have pulled that off at that age.
You guys are doing the same thing that everyone did to me in 1999. Real estate is not good right now, but you are dead wrong. Trust me, the past few years have been a great time to buy. If you really think real estate will be cheaper in 10 years, I have a bridge to nowhere to sell you. It’s a freaking great time to buy. Don’t be so blind. When there is blood in the street, you buy. From 2005-2010, real estate was shot. It has since stabilized. It’s not going lower. Don’t tell me taxes or rates will make it go down, that is pure bs. Taxes have stabilized. It sucks paying them, but it’s part of the gig. They are not rising out of control. If you compare taxes from 1990 to 2014, it’s not really that bad. From 2000 to 2010 they rose quickly, but you can thank the idiots for jumping the house values up. Did you think taxes wouldn’t rise by 10 % when home values were going up 50% in a year? Open your eyes.
Ben says:
September 17, 2014 at 5:15 pm
I’m a millennial. I might be the oldest, but I still am a millennial. My granny didn’t provide instant equity. I busted my butt to save for a down payment. Why are you taking away credit for something I created. Does my grandma not have other grandchildren? Sorry that I’m a go-getter that bought an investment at a very young age that made a lot of money. Dont’ take that away from me.
I’m a millennial too. Your patting yourself on the back for seeing something the other grandchildren didn’t? Most people sit around and wait for the grandparents to pass away. The grandchildren then split what is left to them. Instead, you scooped everyone. Kudos to you. But seriously, when you get to buy something at a 100k discount, don’t act like you are a genius. No one else around has the option of buying something for 100k less than market value. If my grandmother was willing to sell me her 500k house for 400k, I would buy it. That wouldn’t make me smart…just fortunate.
Thank you.
Xolepa says:
September 17, 2014 at 4:23 pm
re:Michael
Hey, I bought my first investment property 30 years ago at a price about 21% under market value. So, the seller can be considered the sucker. Well, if Michael bought his units at a similar discount, the sucker would have been the estate. To me, its a totally impersonal thing and commend the guy for it, not deriding him with fits of jealousy.
Listen, if he did not buy the property he would have considered himself an idiot for the rest of his life. And that property might have been sold off to a savvy RE guy who would have laughed all the way to the bank. I can mention several examples of myself being a sucker because I did not buy certain properties in the past. Could of, should of, you know. 10 years from now, we will see how many on this forum would be saying those words themselves.
112- Spoken like a true investor. Thank you again for the respect.
You know the saying, it’s nothing personal, just business.
You are def a smart guy and I respect you. Your analysis of real estate is negative because you were unlucky with your timing. Timing is everything with any investment. That’s the luck part. Right place, right time. Simple as that.
Libturd in Union says:
September 17, 2014 at 3:54 pm
PF,
I am seriously frugal (some might call it cheap). Somehow I(we to not piss off Gator) bought my first home, in a private sale I must add, and it’s barely back to the price I paid for it. Plus, I sank about 25% of the sale price into it as improvements to keep the high rents coming in. This was October of 2004. I seriously feared I would have been priced out and renting was getting expensive and I was sick of throwing away my money. Few do as much research as I do about purchases, let alone a huge one with a $100,000 downpayment. Plus, I wanted a garden. Our proximity to the train station was pretty much our saving grace. One year into the house, it had increased in value to $650,000. At that pace, it would have been worth a million in another 18 months. I remember telling Gator this and she saying that something was horribly wrong with the picture, which is what prompted my SRS (Double-leveraged short real estate RTF) investment. Believe me, when I landed my home with its prime location in a private sale, I was the smartest guy around. Four years later, I wished first, I hadn’t bought the place. And second, I hadn’t put so much down. Would have gladly wrecked my credit to mail in the keys to start anew. And the timing would have been perfect. Instead, I had to double down (dollar cost average) into real estate. So far, my timing looks brilliant. But I know that it’s only a paper gain. Who knows if I will be proven a super idiot when housing crashes again under the weight of property taxes in the most over regulated (perhaps cause we are so blue) state in the nation.
From my post #82. Not sure if you guys read it, but I thought it was a great share for understanding the fed. The people on this forum that blast the fed for printing the money and for following a policy of inflation are looking at the issue a little naively. You really wanted the economy to crash instead of the fed printing up money? Do you guys understand how bad deflation is? It’s almost impossible to get out of and it destroys all businesses and participants in the economy that carry debt. I would cry if deflation hit. Why is it so hard to realize that wage inflation is inevitable at this point in time based on the fundamentals. We can’t have deflation, and the consumer needs to afford the products to keep the economy going. So how in the world do you not see wage inflation in the future? Just put your damn thinking cap on and take advantage of the situation, like I have, by getting a big loan to buy an asset that is an inflation hedge? I don’t even know why I waste my time sharing this info with you, when you will reject it and call me an idiot.
“So much “money” was created when interest rates fell and consumers borrowed record amounts that when the banks shut off the lending to try and rebuild their balance sheet, that money was sucked out of the economy. Had the Federal Reserve not printed money, we would have gone into a Great Depression deflation – your house and assets would have lost value but your mortgage would have stayed the same. In other words, if you had any debt at all, you would have been totally and completely screwed.
The government turned on the printing presses to attempt to replace the bank created money, with the hope that they could take it out of the system over the next 5 to 10 years slowly, a little at a time.”
From yesterday. I was right. You pay for high end vodka to avoid a really bad hangover. Cheap vodka will kill you the next day.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/07/health/07real.html?_r=0
I’m glad an article from 8 years ago proves you right… and the personal recent stories of others on here mean nothing.
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