From HousingWire:
Housing losing momentum? Not if but when
Moderation in the housing market is now in its 11th straight month, according to the latest home data index from Clear Capital.
National home price gains fell to 6.7% year-over-year and 1.0% quarter-over-quarter.
Meanwhile Distressed Saturation fell to just 16.8% suggesting the shortage of lower priced inventory is the catalyst for stalling gains. National trends were echoed at the regional level, with the West seeing the strongest moderation across the country. In fact, for the first time since the start of the recovery three years ago, the West’s yearly rates of growth fell below 10%, a sure sign of more moderation to come over the next several months for the nation.
“Performing-only sale trends are a bellwether for what’s to come in 2015 ” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “Think of home price growth since the housing collapse as a bouncing ball, where each successive bounce causes some energy to be lost and eventually movement stalls. We see this on a few different levels. First, we see the delta between performing-only and all sales, including distressed sales, merging. This confirms markets are no longer driven as much by investor demand for discounted distressed assets.”
…
They also warn that improvements in the broader economic landscape have not instilled confidence in traditional homebuyers (first-time, move-up, second home owners). The general lack of demand in the performing-only segment, coupled with a dwindling supply of distressed inventory, leaves the future of home prices squarely in the hands of traditional homebuyers, who have yet to show any signs of re-engaging.
…
Reduced reliance on distressed sales and diminishing gains in the performing-only sale segment could be too much for the recovery to overcome as we enter winter. The recovery is at a tipping point. Markets need non investor demand to ramp up, and homebuyer confidence restored. Should this turn into a negative feedback loop, the likelihood for quarterly price declines at the national level could turn into yearly price declines by the end of 2015.
Truer words were never spoken. Oh, and frist!
I’ll 2nd that.
“Think of home price growth since the housing collapse as a bouncing ball, where each successive bounce causes some energy to be lost and eventually movement stalls.”
Any questions?
He left out the 50-100 years wandering in the wilderness, gnashing of teeth and Chinese water torture, but you get the picture…
Chinese Water Torture?
Is that when America ships ocean freight containers full of dollars to China to satisfy it’s addiction to cheap consumer crap, shipped back over the water? No better example of this than Christmas. Water torture indeed.
This blog is, hands down, the best cyber Monday deal. The fact that I’ve never sent a spam email should be reason enough to donate double. Click the button, well, because I just got the bill for 2015 web hosting.
I’m on the train and can’t write but golly fcuking gee, what a revelation! (Sarcasm off)
[5] grim,
I think I can plausibly deduct it as a professional expense. Any number of deduction catergories can fit: Professional publication, market research, business development, and for the sheer value of getting to see anon, Otto, and fabian get abused, and partake myself from from time to time, entertainment expense.
Though, like the 3 martini lunch, the latter is a habit I am trying to dump.
[6] eddie,
Yes, I think we have seen that the Pant-Up Demand has shot its wad.
@SportsCenter:
St. Louis Police Officers Association calls for Rams players to be disciplined after show of support for Ferguson.
The President, Attorney General, and the Head of Homeland security are all African American….Still, they can’t get justice? Really?
This one is for Joyce. Try not to spit coffee all over your keyboard, Joyce . . .
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/30/us/cleveland-police-lawsuit/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
CNN won’t say, but after decades of deciphering the code used in reporting, there are two things easily deduced:
1. Perps were black,
2. This was retribution for Ferguson.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/30/us/st-louis-man-dead-hammers/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1
Are those Rams players white? If so, they must be racist. Plus Anon, aren’t all football players criminals and the sport should be banned?
…welcome to the new ab-normal…
[14] essex,
as long as the new “ab-normal” stays “over there.”
Yes, anon, I know, it’s rac1st. Isn’t everything?
“protesters” assault an elderly man with an oxygen tank and carjack him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBCwgBYc_8I
What is a good amount to donate? Anything at all? $100?
grim says:
December 1, 2014 at 7:39 am
This blog is, hands down, the best cyber Monday deal. The fact that I’ve never sent a spam email should be reason enough to donate double. Click the button, well, because I just got the bill for 2015 web hosting.
15…knocking on fresh 52 week highs…..hang on baby….60 more days…..Cha-Ching.
Witnesses reported an elderly man was run over after two people stole his car on the parking lot Faraci pizzeria on South Florissant.
Jaye Perry, 52, of Ferguson, said she had been talking to the man and he had told her, “Only in America do you see stuff like this.” The man then went back to his car to get a new oxygen tank, which he had been using to help him breathe.
But then two men approached him and took his car, she said. The man held on to his steering wheel and tried to hold on, but was run over as they sped away. He didn’t appear to be seriously hurt, and continued to yell for his oxygen tank. An ambulance took him away.
“Think of home price growth since the housing collapse as a bouncing ball, where each successive bounce causes some energy to be lost and eventually movement stalls.”
AKA as the dead cat bounce.
Kids football
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/high-school-football-hits-alter-brains-even-without-concussions.html
[3] clot – great analogy, but I’d offer up that the weight of taxes stagnant wages incline the plane such that there will be continued movement…down.
“Think of home price growth since the housing collapse as a bouncing ball, where each successive bounce causes some energy to be lost and eventually movement stalls.”
The recovery is at a tipping point. Markets need non investor demand to ramp up, and homebuyer confidence restored.
There never was a recovery. Underwater muppets are f.ucked and the investor vultures have left nothing but pock-marked bones. How long do they keep the cadaver on life support?
The recovery is at a tipping point. Markets need non investor demand to ramp up, and homebuyer confidence restored. Should this turn into a negative feedback loop, the likelihood for quarterly price declines at the national level could turn into yearly price declines by the end of 2015.
Any questions?
“Oathkeepers” guarding Ferguson businesses from rooftops.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2855736/Ferguson-police-shut-armed-Oath-Keeper-vigilantes-guarding-rooftops.html
(25) Fast Eddie
Yes. What percentage of folks in the tri-state area will be swimming naked if the tide is allowed to recede?
Any questions?
Interesting read from Mish on the Hipsters.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/11/fed-mystified-why-millennials-stay-at.html
Interesting read on the Hipsters from Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/11/fed-mystified-why-millennials-stay-at.html
double post oops my bad.
Yes. What percentage of folks in the tri-state area will be swimming naked if the tide is allowed to recede?
Define “naked” in the context of your question.
31…
Negative equity.
I think the donation is a great idea. For my content I am accepting Hustler Club or Hooters gift certificates
chicagofinance says:
December 1, 2014 at 9:19 am
What is a good amount to donate? Anything at all? $100?
grim says:
December 1, 2014 at 7:39 am
This blog is, hands down, the best cyber Monday deal. The fact that I’ve never sent a spam email should be reason enough to donate double. Click the button, well, because I just got the bill for 2015 web hosting.
It’s a confusing metaphor in this context because water receding implies “no longer under water”, but I think clotluva meant it as Warren Buffet used it, finding out who is over-leveraged beyond their ability to service their debt.
Yes. What percentage of folks in the tri-state area will be swimming naked if the tide is allowed to recede?
[26] toxic
I saw that. I also saw a report that the Police Chief there ordered Oathkeepers volunteers to pack up and ship out, invoking a law regulating private security companies. According to the report, Oathkeepers was the only volunteer group ordered to disband in Ferguson.
My guess would be that it is because SPLC lists it as a hate group. Of course, SPLC would list the RNC as a hate group if they thought it wouldn’t render them a joke. I remember an interview with Potok and he was asked if, based on a definition he just gave for what constitutes a hate group, the Boy Scouts were a hate group. He ducked the question.
[33] JJ
I thought those places comped you so that you would lend your manly air to their establishments?
The most romantic thing any woman ever said to JJ after sex: “This one’s on the house.”
[12] “the four suspects yelled at him and hit him with the hammers, the station reported, adding that he was struck on the head, face, mouth and abdomen. He died at a hospital of his injuries”
Can we please hear more about how black parents are so afraid for their precious angel teenagers walking down the street that they need to have “The Talk” with them about the dangers of evil of white people?
Wake up, people.
How many transactions occurred in the tri-sate area from approximately 2004 through 2008? Take that number and multiply by .99 and that’s the number of units suffering from negative equity. Whether one chooses to endure the loss is another story.
Just imagine if it was reversed.
Happy Renter says:
December 1, 2014 at 11:17 am
[12] “the four suspects yelled at him and hit him with the hammers, the station reported, adding that he was struck on the head, face, mouth and abdomen. He died at a hospital of his injuries”
Can we please hear more about how black parents are so afraid for their precious angel teenagers walking down the street that they need to have “The Talk” with them about the dangers of evil of white people?
Wake up, people.
Of course they used hammers, what did you expect, they are only 15 or 16. Where is a 15 year old supposed to get a gun these days? Burn this bitch down.
When is Obama scheduled to make a statement?
[39] pumpkin
I fully expect to have a version of “the talk” with my girls.
And it will be followed with an equally extensive talk on why they must never disclose the fact that they had “the talk”.
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#5,
I took a break from buying some Chinese or Taiwanese stuff that I hope won’t be crap (an Asus Transformer Tablet/laptop), and donated $100 to NJrerepot, assuming my credit card doesn’t block the transaction as suspicious.
I would have enjoyed it more if you were a non-profit like the Ayn Rand Institute, and got a tax deduction. Why aren’t you an educational institution?
[43] ragnar,
Fair point. But it would be hard for Grim to get a determination letter, recognizing it as a public charity. Without that, no deduction for you!
[12] redux, [19] toxic
And if further proof was needed that the crimes referenced were retribution crimes, neither of them are discussed on MSNBC.
http://nypost.com/2014/12/01/teens-savagely-beat-man-with-hammers-in-random-attack/
“A group of teenagers used hammers to savagely beat a man to death in a random attack on a St. Louis street Sunday, according to police.”
It’s RANDOM — see? Completely and utterly RANDOM.
“There is no indication that the gentleman last night was targeted because he was Bosnian,” he said. “There’s no indication that they knew each other.”
Ah, such precision in the language used to sweep this hate crime under the rug. Of course these thugs did not target this guy because he was “Bosnian” — they have no concept of what “Bosnian” even means. They do, however, understand “white” well enough.
[46] renter,
Exactly, that’s part of the code. Its been in use so long, it is ridiculously transparent.
Grim [5];
Done. Not much, but I’ll be sure to buy your booze, too. :-D
And here’s your future, New Jersey. . . .
“Amazon.com has installed more than 15,000 robots across 10 U.S. warehouses, a move that promises to cut operating costs by one-fifth and get packages out the door more quickly in the run-up to Christmas.
The orange 320-pound (145 kg) robots, which scoot around the floor on wheels, show how Amazon has adopted technology developed by Kiva Systems, a robotics company it bought for $775 million in 2012. Amazon showcased to media on Sunday ahead of Cyber Monday, the biggest online shopping day of the year. . . . .
Amazon deployed the robots this summer, ahead of the key holiday quarter, when the company typically books about one-third of its annual revenue. The updated warehouses are in five states—California, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington.”
That’s 1,500 robots per center, 3,000 robots per state, on average. I wonder if Amazon got tax breaks for building these centers that employ robots, not community college dropouts and GED holders?
Actually the weirdest one was one who stayed over on a 1NS when I lived in Queens. Finally after morning wood was taken care of I am starving and she is still there. I was dying for an egg sandwich, but she stayed. So I go lets go to Diner for breakfast, she goes no problem let me go to bathroom. She takes a shower and has a change underware, toothbrush, make-up, hairbrush and birth control pills all in her bag. Even stranger was she was pretty damm hot. So after breakfast back to my place and suprisingly enough a pot of coffee and pound of bacon and her freshly made up what the heck round three. And then I pass out for a bit, next thing I know she says anything good on TV, now I dont have cable, so she goes is that a blockbuster next door, so out we go get a movie and Pizza since it is next door and back we go for Pizza and a movie. Which ends up in you guessed it round four and I fall asleep again and wake up like 7pm hungry. While she is in bathroom she yells out is it ok if I run across the street and get chinese at this point I am spent I go sure, fall asleep for another 15 minutes she brings chinese food and at this point she was almost headed towards bedroom again, so I go look I got work tommmorow I should take you home. So I drive her out to Long Island. I am like you live at home, she goes yep, I go did you tell your Mom where you were you are gone 24 hours. She goes nope, then says walk me in. I am like trying to say no but after all that went on was lightheaded. So her Dad is sitting in living room and says hi to her and hi to me like nothing going on. She goes follow me upstairs, We get to her bedroom, I pass her sister in hallway and she goes do you want to stay over, and starts kissing me. I swear first time in my life I ran out the door.
I went out with her a few more times but I would say it was a draining experience. The only hot blonde in the world who had trouble keep guys as they could not keep up with her.
Comrade Nom Deplume, armed and dangerous says:
December 1, 2014 at 10:35 am
[33] JJ
I thought those places comped you so that you would lend your manly air to their establishments?
The most romantic thing any woman ever said to JJ after sex: “This one’s on the house.”
@FinancialTimes:
Opinion: Only the ignorant fear hyperinflation
@tomfollett:
“Only the ignorant live in fear of hyperinflation… There is a case for state creating money directly”- @martinwolf_
Good move. It’s sad that it has come to this.
Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:
December 1, 2014 at 11:43 am
[39] pumpkin
I fully expect to have a version of “the talk” with my girls.
And it will be followed with an equally extensive talk on why they must never disclose the fact that they had “the talk”.
11 people were shot in Newark in the past four days, I’m sure the protest planning is underway as we speak.
Very much appreciate the donations guys, thanks!
Precision indeed. Talk about biased journalism.
Happy Renter says:
December 1, 2014 at 12:07 pm
http://nypost.com/2014/12/01/teens-savagely-beat-man-with-hammers-in-random-attack/
“A group of teenagers used hammers to savagely beat a man to death in a random attack on a St. Louis street Sunday, according to police.”
It’s RANDOM — see? Completely and utterly RANDOM.
“There is no indication that the gentleman last night was targeted because he was Bosnian,” he said. “There’s no indication that they knew each other.”
Ah, such precision in the language used to sweep this hate crime under the rug. Of course these thugs did not target this guy because he was “Bosnian” — they have no concept of what “Bosnian” even means. They do, however, understand “white” well enough.
Last time I was out in a big distribution center in the midwest most all of the forklifts were semi-automatic. Once you were nearing entry to an aisle of racking, you dialed the position and the forklift drove down to the correct position and lifted to the correct height. The aisles were so narrow, it would be impossible for a forklift driver to get down one without the drive-by-wire or whatever it was. That was years back. It was pretty clear they were getting to the point of near driverless systems.
Last time I checked, there weren’t many 15 year old carpenters in St. Louis, which means this was premeditated.
Grim,
Saw the same thing in use at Revlon in Dayton when I was a teenager temping to pay for college. This is not new technology. Fork lifts were unique in that they did not turn. They had two sets of wheels set perpendicular to each other. Robots followed a white line painted on the floor. Skids were all half skids though. Technology was premature as they were constantly being serviced.
Wasn’t the advent of machines supposed to help humans have more leisure time? I guess whoever thought this, thought that money would fall from the sky to help humans survive. Technology def helps future generations, but it def screws the generation of workers that have to adjust to it.
Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:
December 1, 2014 at 12:17 pm
And here’s your future, New Jersey. . . .
“Amazon.com has installed more than 15,000 robots across 10 U.S. warehouses, a move that promises to cut operating costs by one-fifth and get packages out the door more quickly in the run-up to Christmas.
The orange 320-pound (145 kg) robots, which scoot around the floor on wheels, show how Amazon has adopted technology developed by Kiva Systems, a robotics company it bought for $775 million in 2012. Amazon showcased to media on Sunday ahead of Cyber Monday, the biggest online shopping day of the year. . . . .
Amazon deployed the robots this summer, ahead of the key holiday quarter, when the company typically books about one-third of its annual revenue. The updated warehouses are in five states—California, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington.”
That’s 1,500 robots per center, 3,000 robots per state, on average. I wonder if Amazon got tax breaks for building these centers that employ robots, not community college dropouts and GED holders?
Cheers, Grim – glad to chip in a donation to keep this peanut gallery up and running.
Funny thought, looking back, even that far back, you already saw a kind of “who needs who” in logistics and fulfillment. Did the people need the machines, or did the machines need the people? I think even 10 years ago, it was the latter.
I remember when we installed a pick to light system in that place, it was the perfect example of the machine needing the person. When an order was ready to pick, a pick sheet printed out, it was put in a little plastic tote. The picker ran down an aisle picking a product out of every area where a little light came on. When they finally filled the order (bin), they threw it on a conveyor belt and a reader checked the barcode, distributed it to the right packing station, along with the appropriate carton. The packer filled the box, confirmed the contents, sealed it, put it back on the conveyer with the little label where the appropriate shipping label was applied, and it was shot down a slide into the back of a waiting Fedex or USPS truck.
Really, back then, the people were only needed to do the tasks that were not physically possible for the robots to do.
Damn it, now we are going to have to have a license to own a hammer. Can’t blame guns here, so we will blame the hammers. Funny part, when they start using hammers, because guns have been outlawed, people will be begging for the return of guns. You know, in the name of humane killings as opposed to the torture of being beat to death with a hammer.
grim says:
December 1, 2014 at 1:40 pm
Last time I checked, there weren’t many 15 year old carpenters in St. Louis, which means this was premeditated.
Housing news: $15,000 can buy both!
Patterson & Irvington…
Investors wanted?
grim: tossed you some coin….thanks for being a gracious host….
Captain Cheapo cyber Monday deal of the day. Restaurant dot com is running 70% off today with promo code CYBER. Upromise gives you 7% back towards college. Use a 2% refund credit card and you are virtually eating for free. Don’t forget, the tip is locked in at 18% too. So you might save a couple percentage points off there. There are some really good restaurants in there. This is not Living Social or Groupon or Amazon Local. Coupons never expire and can easily be traded to another restaurant if there is some kind of issue like the restaurant closes.
Lib [65];
Only one certificate per check/table? I ask because largest denom for the only place I’d want to eat at is $15, selling for $6. While $9 discount is nice, $15 isn’t going very far at any place where we’d leave the kids home — speaking of which $9 wouldn’t even cover the sitter.
Con’t [66];
Only one (1) Restaurant- Specific Certificate may be redeemed per party, per month, per Issuer (even if the party is seated at separate tables and/or receives more than one check.).
Meh.
Sorry. Gotta go for the $25 off $50s.
53,
“11 people were shot in Newark in the past four days, I’m sure the protest planning is underway as we speak.”
As you know, killing is not worth protesting unless it involves white males.
Otherwise, what are they going to protest? Failed value systems?
Inspirational cutting edge ornithology (clot Edition):
http://nypost.com/2014/12/01/talibans-latest-weapon-a-bird-fitted-with-a-bomb-vest/
Was the shooter a white cop?
A melee outside a Brooklyn baby shower ended with four people shot Sunday night, police said.
The skirmish occurred outside Remsen Hall in East Flatbush at 8:30 p.m. when about 20 shots were fired, prompting passers-by to dart into the catering hall to escape the gunfire, according to police and witnesses.
One man was struck in the chest, another in the leg, a third in the shoulder, and a woman was hit in the arm, according to police. They were all taken to Kings County Hospital and listed in stable condition.
The four victims had been inside the catering hall before the bullets started flying, cops said.
clot Family Entertainment Just in time for the Christmas Holiday….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5WQZzDRVtw
Politics Explained, behold:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/politics-explained
Where do I join Oathkeepers?
chi (72)-
That Babadook is some straight up crazy shit.
All I want for Christmas are some hammers and a badass street crew.
Housing to moderate as investors pull back and home buyers sidelined | New Jersey Real Estate Report
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