From the Record:
Job surge skipping New Jersey so far
In the biggest surge in almost three years, employers nationwide added 321,000 jobs in November — a leap forward that threatens to leave New Jersey further behind.
Friday’s strong Labor Department report shows national job growth accelerating and that it now is above 2 percent year to date, outdistancing New Jersey’s lukewarm pace of 0.73 percent so far in 2014, as the state grapples with the lingering effects of Superstorm Sandy and the downsizing of key industries such as pharmaceuticals and telecom.
The report also raises questions about when job gains will start to translate into bigger paychecks for Americans, whose incomes have stagnated as the nation slowly recovers from the Great Recession.
The unemployment rate was unchanged in November at 5.8 percent. Professional and business services, retail, and education and health services led job gains. The government also said 44,000 more jobs than originally estimated were added in September and October. So far this year, the nation has gained about 2.65 million jobs.
It was the 10th straight month employers created more than 200,000 jobs, the longest such stretch since the mid-1990s.
…
But in terms of employment, the picture has been less hopeful in New Jersey, where November job numbers are to be released Dec. 18.In October, the state shed 4,500 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 6.5 percent; it has been higher than the national rate most of the time since 2011.
So far this year, the state has gained about 22,900 jobs, putting it on pace to beat last year’s lackluster total of 18,800 jobs. This year’s rate is well below the pace of 2012, when New Jersey added almost 44,000 jobs. And New Jersey has recovered only about 46 percent of the nearly 260,000 jobs it lost during the 2007-09 recession.
…
Joseph Seneca, a Rutgers University economist, said that in the next couple of months, New Jersey may get “a sizable echo effect from the very strong job gains in the U.S. labor market this year.”“However, the lingering effects of Sandy, the large loss of casino jobs, the lack of a bounce back of manufacturing jobs and the absence of energy-related job growth [seen in other states] have all worked against the state this year,” he said.
From the NY Fed:
Debt, Jobs, or Housing: What’s Keeping Millennials at Home?
From HousingWire:
AEI study: Share of first-time buyers higher than estimated
A new index from the American Enterprise Institute suggests the share of mortgages going to first-time buyers is actually much higher than estimated by National Association of Realtors.
Stephen Oliner and Edward Pinto, co-directors of the AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk, put out their inaugural release of the First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share Index, a new measure of the share of mortgages going to first-time buyers.
…
The Agency FBMSI averaged 52% over the 12 months ending October 2014. The Combined FBMSI averaged an estimated 46% over the 12 months ending October 2014.
“Discussions about homeownership and credit availability are hampered when not grounded in good measurements of loan availability and risk,” said Pinto. “We developed these new tools to provide accurate information to help inform the conversation.”
The FBMSI is the first time the national first-time buyer share has been calculated using a nearly complete dataset with minimal opportunity for sample error.
AEI is throwing down the gauntlet on NAR, saying that their new index is in contrast to the 2014 survey conducted by the NAR, which was based on responses constituting 0.2% of all purchase loans originated during the 12 month survey period and was voluntary, with responses received from only 9% of those mailed the 127-question survey.
For the July 2013-June 2014 period covered by the NAR’s survey, the center’s combined FBMSI had an average value of 45%, substantially higher than the NAR’s survey finding that first-time homebuyers constituted 36% of purchase loans used to buy a primary residence.
“It is not surprising that the NAR results, which are based on a small and non-random sample, provide an inaccurate picture of the importance of first-time home buyers,” said Oliner. “The FBMSI is as comprehensive as currently possible and will hopefully allow a discussion of the facts on this important issue.”
And New Jersey has recovered only about 46 percent of the nearly 260,000 jobs it lost during the 2007-09 recession.
Sell? Sell to whom?
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Sold for 382K in 2010; asking 649K.
I can only imagine the delights this one holds:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3169586247-425-Abbott-Rd-Paramus-NJ-07652#photo-1
Sold in 2002 for 1.062K,
then sold for 1.525K in 2005;
currently asking 1.425K.
Read those figures a few times over so that you can experience the groan for yourself. That’s a $500,000 heist in a three year period. Do you realize how many people are truly f.ucked and how much damage the RE syndicate inflicted? C’mon, where are the pom pom wavers! I suspect this one will finally sell for about 1.200K, if they’re lucky:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3169411029-141-Cumberland-Ct-Paramus-NJ-07652
Oh, and the taxes are a mere $22,000 per year. Thank G0d we’re all prestigious.
Sold for 425K in 2000; asking 875K. I have no idea how these stup1d b.astards come up with some arbitrary figure. The list price on this one should be in the mid/upper 600s:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3172488708-74-Lilac-Ln-Paramus-NJ-07652#photo-1
$1m in 2002 on a 3% trend line is $1.425m
How overpriced is it?
Omg, what is this thing? What is that huge, cavernous room? Is that the vomitorium?
http://www.trulia.com/property/3172549190-264-Gorden-Dr-Paramus-NJ-07652#photo-9
How overpriced is it?
It’s not. They need to all follow the 3% trend line but they can’t, because the majority of sellers are not qualified.
Dead money for 50-100 years. All the activity we see will end in nothing more than new muppet bagholders being chained to their houses forever.
Big day at the Bergen sheriff sale yesterday. About 20 properties sold.
Grim, the completed foreclosure figures you cited yesterday were from what quarter?
Not your momma’s double wide. So where is the legislation to ban them?
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/nj_would_encourage_building_of_tiny_houses_for_the_poor_and_homeless_under_nj_bill.html#incart_river
Morristown, folks. No one is spared. A sea of destruction. This one sold for 1.060K back in 2003, currently asking 930K. An ocean of muppets nary a lifeboat:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3160156549-23-Homewood-Dr-Morristown-NJ-07960
From trulia q2 2014
Gary, any house in Morristown should have six years of Delbarton or Beard tuition tacked onto the price. Can’t send Alistair or Scout to the penitentiary aka Morristown HS.
Magpies shove it up Mourinho’s arse, 2-1. So much for Chelsea’s ‘Invincibles’.
What town zoning provisions in NJ allow for trailer parks?
Wow, wage inflation talks are heating up. I called this 3 years ago when no one gave it a chance in hell.
Nj will be back. It is only lacking because our state industries were hit hard during the Great Recession. With the economy heating up, new companies will move in. Nj has a great location, and quite frankly, a lot going for it. Don’t doubt jersey, it will come roaring back. Too many intelligent people with lots of money living here for it not to.
Grim, the completed foreclosure activity in NJ has been picking up steam since late in the third quarter. Right now I am going through the list of about 230 properties scheduled for sale on 1/9/15 in Bergen County. Yesterday was the last sale in Bergen for 2014.
Optimistic about a property I picked up at yesterday’s sale in Bergen. House in Ramsey on about an acre and a half with over 4,000 square feet of living space. Home was built in 1990.
Any questions fast Eddie? What’s so crazy about that increase? You invest in stocks, so you understand compounding.
Wait till you see the price of homes 10 years from now. People get a string of 4.5-5% raises for 5 years and you bet your ass housing prices today will indeed look very cheap, esp factoring in the cheap pretty much free loans.
grim says:
December 6, 2014 at 8:29 am
$1m in 2002 on a 3% trend line is $1.425m
How overpriced is it?
Fast Eddie, you do realize that 2002 is going to be almost 13 years ago. That’s a long time. Housing and wages can’t stay down forever.
Pumpkin,
You need to be a little more creative with your satire, it’s getting weak.
I love it when turdblossom goes into full denial mode.
Michael,
see link for today’s front page of the Wall Street Journal.
What’s that mention of “….since 1999”
@WSJ:
Check out the stories selected for today’s front page: http://t.co/wVOJqlXWmo
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 6, 2014 at 10:25 am
Wow, wage inflation talks are heating up. I called this 3 years ago when no one gave it a chance in hell.
Nj will be back. It is only lacking because our state industries were hit hard during the Great Recession. With the economy heating up, new companies will move in. Nj has a great location, and quite frankly, a lot going for it. Don’t doubt jersey, it will come roaring back. Too many intelligent people with lots of money living here for it not to.
Economy on Track to Record Strongest Year of Job Creation in 15 Years
“U.S. businesses ramped up hiring across the board in November, putting 2014 on pace to be the best year for job growth since 1999.
Nonfarm employers added a seasonally adjusted 321,000 jobs in November, the most in one month since January 2012, the Labor Department said Friday. Payroll gains in October and September were revised higher as well. The unemployment rate stood at 5.8%, unchanged from October but down from 7% in November 2013.
Friday’s report also showed nascent signs that wage growth, which has been slow during the recovery, is accelerating. If sustained, that could lift incomes and bolster consumer spending during the holidays.
“This is another sign that says we’re taking off,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.
[25] eddie
“You need to be a little more creative with your satire, it’s getting weak.”
Getting?
Luge,
Even with a lot of help from FIFA, Chelski and the Gooners couldn’t get it done. 6.5 min of stoppage time and a questionable 2nd yellow couldn’t help Mourinho get a win at SJP, and Stoke was denied a 4th on a call so questionable, the commentators kept harping on it for 15 minutes.
Since you enjoy it so, I will let you rub it in Fabian’s face.
[19] clot
Invincibles?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sByxTCQU8Rc
Economy on Track to Record Strongest Year of Job Creation in 15 Years
And you think that’s a good sign? We went through 2 major bubbles in those 15 years.
this can only help my girl Hillary.
today’s front page Barron’s:
“In recent months, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 repeatedly hit new highs, and the Nasdaq finally looks poised to vault past its all-time high of 5049, fears have been raised about the possibility of yet another market collapse.
While we agree that some overvalued, money-losing companies like Twitter (ticker: TWTR), Workday (WDAY), and Splunk (SPLK) do recall the dot-com mania of 15 years ago, the situation today is fundamentally different.
We say this knowing that the most dangerous words on Wall Street are “This time it’s different.”
Finally, the wholesome family story that clot has waited years to hit the newswires…..
EASTON, Pa. (AP) — Necrophilia motivated a man to fatally shoot his stepdaughter last month, according to a Pennsylvania prosecutor.
Gregory Graf recorded himself sexually abusing the body of Jessica Padgett, Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli said Friday. The video was discovered a day earlier on Graf’s computer, the prosecutor said.
Padgett, 33, was last seen alive on Nov. 21, when she left work at a day care center. Graf was arrested five days later after police found her body buried behind a shed on the property where he lives with Padgett’s mother.
Graf, 53, is being held without bail on a homicide charge. The fencing company owner confessed to killing Padgett, a recently married mother of three, according to Morganelli.
The victim’s family said in a statement last month that Padgett “was a beautiful, vibrant young woman who was beloved by her family and friends. The world shines less bright today.”
Graf applied for a public defender, saying in court Friday that he didn’t want to burden his family financially. A judge turned him down, ruling he had enough money to pay for his own defense.
Morganelli said Graf will be charged with abuse of a corpse.
chi (34)-
Thanks for kicking off my holiday season with a heartwarming tale.
Hard to believe “necrophilia” doesn’t trigger grim’s filter.
Magpies beat Chelsea, Gooners lose and a family necrophilia story.
Red letter day!
They made an Ebola Christmas song!?!?
[37] clot
Gooners didn’t just lose, they were humiliated. Score was a lot closer than the game.
Dare I dream? Odds aren’t good but oh, to dream.
In Louisiana run off, anon’s side is getting crushed.
Lol…thanks. You were witness to the abuse I received for calling for wage inflation. No one gave it a damn chance, no one. I stood my ground and played the part of the village idiot. So pardon me if it feels damn good to be right. Can’t wait to be right about housing too.
anon (the good one) says:
December 6, 2014 at 12:17 pm
Michael,
see link for today’s front page of the Wall Street Journal.
What’s that mention of “….since 1999″
@WSJ:
Check out the stories selected for today’s front page: http://t.co/wVOJqlXWmo
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 6, 2014 at 10:25 am
Wow, wage inflation talks are heating up. I called this 3 years ago when no one gave it a chance in hell.
Nj will be back. It is only lacking because our state industries were hit hard during the Great Recession. With the economy heating up, new companies will move in. Nj has a great location, and quite frankly, a lot going for it. Don’t doubt jersey, it will come roaring back. Too many intelligent people with lots of money living here for it not to.
ill try my best.
Fast Eddie says:
December 6, 2014 at 11:41 am
Pumpkin,
You need to be a little more creative with your satire, it’s getting weak.
Bubbles are inevitable. Trick is to learn how to play them.
Ben says:
December 6, 2014 at 1:07 pm
Economy on Track to Record Strongest Year of Job Creation in 15 Years
And you think that’s a good sign? We went through 2 major bubbles in those 15 years.
Is the number in the second column (November) higher or lower than that in the first (October)?
Those are the actual numbers reported from the household survey.
The economy “added” 321,000 jobs in November? No, the BLS added about 600,000 jobs to the number actually reported by households!
If you’re willing to simply “report” whatever is on the headline of a data release without bothering to read the ****ing thing first you’re not a journalist, you’re a shill or worse, a paid spammer.
If you’re willing to believe this sort of **** without reading the report first then you’re a low-information voter and deserve what you get when your view of the economy and the world around you turns out to be 180 degrees from reality.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229639
The headlines are not lying. I’ve witnessed these improvements with my own eyes. The job market and economy are improving dramatically, whether you want to believe it or not.
joyce says:
December 6, 2014 at 11:07 pm
Is the number in the second column (November) higher or lower than that in the first (October)?
Those are the actual numbers reported from the household survey.
The economy “added” 321,000 jobs in November? No, the BLS added about 600,000 jobs to the number actually reported by households!
If you’re willing to simply “report” whatever is on the headline of a data release without bothering to read the ****ing thing first you’re not a journalist, you’re a shill or worse, a paid spammer.
If you’re willing to believe this sort of **** without reading the report first then you’re a low-information voter and deserve what you get when your view of the economy and the world around you turns out to be 180 degrees from reality.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229639
Paid 860K almost four years ago; current ask is 850K. Financial wizards like these muppets not only take themselves out of the game but they knock qualified buyers out as well. This one will sell for the upper 700s:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3031159872-66-Hampshire-Hill-Rd-Upper-Saddle-River-NJ-07458
During their ownership they did a new roof, new central AC, and new septic – so probably $40k in.
47 – So, it’s gonna be even a bigger hit. Probably 770K sale price when all said and done minus another 40K. So, somewhere around 730K to 740K in actual terms. They did that work and apparently have to bail for whatever reason.
For Joyce – not sure if this has been noted previously:
http://gawker.com/what-ive-learned-from-two-years-collecting-data-on-poli-1625472836
http://www.fatalencounters.org
The fester and rot continue.
ExPat’s Science Sunday: Prince Rupert’s Drop:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-f4gokRBs
#sciencingwhilewhite
expat, hitting the vaporizer early today…
8AM we’re at my kids’ cold 5K race this morning after a post tree lighting dinner party last night. I’m ahead at least 5 hours to destination blackout today.
#21 -Pumpkin
“Too many intelligent people with lots of money living here for it not to.”
Yeah, people are flooding in! Rajib & Meena, Jose & Consuela but they are not buying homes and have no plans to.
Had my wife not insisted on staying in NJ I’d have left six years ago. At least I’m as far west as one can get (the Delaware is four blocks away – NO CHANCE of flooding at this location).
Big lawns.
Why do people want them? When selling my previous residence 90% of the lookers would ask “what’s behind that fence?”.
Swampy woods (wanted to include a lot of bears too but didn’t, of course) I told them.
“Can the lawn be expanded down there?” they’d always ask.
No, it’s wetlands, can’t, I’d always say. A few left right then without looking at anything else and this was a recently, TOTALLY renovated brick ranch with a huge walk out finished basement and tons of extras!
The property was almost two acres with about a 1/4 acre behind the backyard stockade style (bear proof) fence.
So the blind squirrels found a nut. Let me guess? Champions League this year.
Talking about the Invincibles, see you next week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n275iW54o68
Long time no write! I used to post in these threads years ago. I still see a lot of familiar sounding names. Glad this blog is still here. So here’s what’s up. I have a kid now and I still have the same job I did at Chubb. Everything’s looking pretty secure so I’ll be looking to sell and buy next year. I have a ton of research to do before I do anything so I’ll be spending the next few weeks catching up on the njrereport archives in addition to the usual trolling of trulia.
Syncmaster,
Welcome back. A lot of people changed handles, maybe grim can send you a “Who are they now?” mail.
You did put up one of my all time favorite posts.
“I feel like a child in the backseat of a car hurtling towards “the bottom”, and every few minutes I just have to ask — are we there yet?”
Aww, how naive of me. I would never ask that today because I now know nothing actually makes sense. There are brand new two-bedroom condos on sale (and flying off the shelves) down the street in the mid-300s while the three-bedroom (and 2o years old) townhomes (with garages and basements) in my development sit on the market for months before selling for 100k LESS.
So I know believe there is no top, there is no bottom, there is only here and it sucks here.
ETA: I do know the difference between now and know and no, my earlier post notwithstanding.
[56] Fabian
Looking forward to it.
When I explain to Geordies why the Toon, I tell them why. And when they ask why I despise the Gooners, I tell them about you.
aargh…anti-Gooner rant moderated.
gluteus (56)-
We’re gonna do your side next week and get your manager sacked. You and your finger sandwich-eating Gooner toadies better start thinking about how you can put out 11 players who can somehow not get themselves beat down by one of the worst clubs in all of England.
Speaking of sacks, no one on your current collection of has-beens can hold a candle to Bergkamp.
And Bergkamp was too much of a p#ssy to get in an airplane to even play CL matches.
We will make CL this year, and next year, we’ll piss out the back door of the plane if need be.
dead bankster list moderated.
Hillary?
I’m convinced Hillary has some Mongol blood in her. If her face gets any wider we will all need 60 inch tv’s to see her talk. Stay away from the creme puffs Hillary. There is a tensile strength to duct tape an it’s not strong enough to keep her ass cheeks from chafing her heels.
Hillary’s got a big face, is that the latest gem out of the right-wing random sound-bite generator?
Because I gotta tell ya, I’ve heard better.