From HousingWire:
5 predictions for NYC real estate in 2015
David Behin is the co-founder of CityFunders and MNS Real Estate, one of the ten largest full service brokerages in New York City.
He’s had a hand in more than $3 billion in real estate transactions within the New York tri-state area, and here are his five predictions for New York City real estate in 2015.
Predictions:
1) Manhattan office migration
As Manhattan office rates continue to soar, look for businesses to move their headquarters to Long Island City, the BK Tech Triangle, and Sunset Park.
2) The condo dichotomy
With a saturation of the high-end condo market in Manhattan, look for prices to rise slower than in recent years. Brooklyn, on the other hand, will see condo prices and sales hit record numbers.
3) Building bills
All aspects of development (hard costs and professional services) will experience rising costs – contributing to an eventual slowdown in construction.
4) Capital market
Hedge funds and wealth managers in search of asset retention will increase the flow of investment capital into NYC real estate, which will be perceived as a safe haven within their portfolios.
5) The growth of “Pod”casting
In an effort to appeal to younger renters in search of affordable living arrangements, the fastest growing sector will be micro and pod apartments. (These are the apartment version of “tiny houses.”)
From MarketWatch:
Rents rise at hottest pace in six years
Landlords have ramped up rents by the fastest pace in six years, with national vacancy rates the lowest in two decades, according to government data.
Annual rent inflation hit 3.5% in November — the hottest growth since November 2008 — up from 3.3% in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Rents blew past total annual consumer inflation, which rose just 1.3% in November, hit by dropping gas prices.
“Rental vacancy rates have fallen to 20-year lows,” Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note.
The share of rentals that are vacant fell to 7.4% in the third quarter, the narrowest proportion since early 1995, according to separate data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Interesting map from Zillow last week, must have missed it. Minimum wage needed to rent the median rental.
http://www.zillow.com/research/minimum-wage-rent-affordability-8484/
NY Metro – $23.43 dual earner, $46.86 for single earner.
Problem I have with this is the liberal usage of the words “minimum wage” all over this piece, seems like an attempt at politicizing the issue. Nobody earning the minimum anything is renting anything that’s median priced. Should the minimum wage be increased to make the median affordable, the median will quickly become unaffordable again.
New casino in the Catskills, AC is dead.
Board Backs Casinos in the Catskills, Near Albany and in Central New York
One of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s signature initiatives, the expansion of gambling in New York, took a major step forward on Wednesday, when a state board recommended the approval of Las Vegas-style resort casinos in the Catskills, near Albany and on the northern end of the Finger Lakes.
The resorts, which would include boutique hotels, spas, luxury restaurants, golf resorts and other amenities, are expected to provide thousands of jobs in distressed parts of the state and, according to one estimate, generate over $300 million in new tax revenues.
…
For advocates, the announcement on Wednesday was a cause for celebration, after years of intense lobbying for full-scale gambling as a salve for economic woes in the long-faded Catskills.
“For 50 years, the Sullivan County Catskills have sought gaming as a way to grow our tourism-based economy,” said State Senator John J. Bonacic, a Republican whose district includes much of the Catskills. “And now that moment is here.”
…
The winners include a $630 million resort next to the old Concord Resort near Monticello, once the heart of the borscht belt. The casino, which would be built by Empire Resorts — tied to the Genting Group, a Malaysian conglomerate — would include a 391-room hotel, a golf course, restaurants and entertainment rooms, and sit next to a site where EPR Properties plans to build the Adelaar resort, with an indoor water park, an entertainment village, hiking trails and zip lines.
…
Genting will have both the largest casino in New York and the one closest to New York City.
[2]Minor discount here in Boston:
Boston Metro – $21.35 dual earner, $42.70 for single earner.
BTW, the metro areas for both Boston and NY are grotesquely gigantic. I wonder what the close in costs are (take away Stroudsburg, Ocean County, Trenton, etc.)
NY Metro – $23.43 dual earner, $46.86 for single earner.
Chi yesterday
“shale oil = Republican money”
Well, that shows a deep misunderstanding of issue.
Here’s a guy from Cornell that may enlighten you.
http://www.sustainablecampus.cornell.edu/blogs/news/posts/fracking-experts-debate-economic-environmental-impact
[3] I wonder if they sell pot in the Indian casinos in CO.
America. The only safe haven right now. Stocks remain strong.
Essex moves to Morris.
The End.
6 – Will you be changing your handle?
@ozchrisrock:
Obama.
Ends 2 wars.
Gas prices $2.
Makes peace with Cuba.
Gets people health insurance.
Unemployment lowest in yrs.
Get him on Mt Rushmore!
Gotta love the airport. Bunch of Hasidm praying like there is no tommorow next to a woman doing Tai chi or Falun Gong .
3- They really want to make those surrounding areas of upstate new york poorer than they already are. How about creating a business that doesn’t suck out the crumbs in the pockets of the poor. Casinos should only be allowed in vegas and ac. This whole movement in the past 20 years of putting casinos everywhere is a joke. Nothing more than politicians looking for a quick buck at the expense of the people they represent.
3- They really want to make those surrounding areas of upstate new york poorer than they already are. How about creating a business that doesn’t suck out the crumbs in the pockets of the poor. Cas!nos should only be allowed in vegas and ac. This whole movement in the past 20 years of putting casinos everywhere is a joke. Nothing more than politicians looking for a quick buck at the expense of the people they represent.
3- They really want to make those surrounding areas of upstate new york poorer than they already are. How about creating a business that doesn’t suck out the crumbs in the pockets of the poor. Ca$!n0s should only be allowed in vegas and ac. This whole movement in the past 20 years of putting casinos everywhere is a joke. Nothing more than politicians looking for a quick buck at the expense of the people they represent.
@TheTweetOfGod: Seriously though, Kim Jong-un really should be assassinated.
3- They really want to make those surrounding areas of upstate new york poorer than they already are. How about creating a business that doesn’t suck out the crumbs in the pockets of the poor. Ca__n__s should only be allowed in vega$ and a-c. This whole movement in the past 20 years of putting casinos everywhere is a joke. Nothing more than politicians looking for a quick buck at the expense of the people they represent.
What do you think Chicagofinance? Should the Pilgrim Pipeline be built?
Christie mum on N.J. pipeline opposed by state GOP as he pitches XL pipeline with eye on 2016
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/as_christie_pushes_pipelines_new_jersey_republicans_push_back.html#incart_related_stories
TRENTON — Gov. Chris Christie can’t say enough good things about the Keystone XL pipeline lately, making passionate and public pitches for it to be built as quickly as possible while on recent trade missions to Canada and Mexico.
But the governor won’t disclose how he feels about the planned $1 billion Pilgrim Pipeline that would stretch through seven counties in New Jersey — and is facing growing opposition from local and state officials, including the Legislature’s top Republicans.
“I’m not going to comment on that,” Christie, a Republican, responded when asked on Wednesday if he would support the Pilgrim pipeline. His spokesman, Kevin Roberts, later said the administration has no official view on the pipeline because Pilgrim hasn’t filed all its permit applications yet.
Over the past few days, Republican legislative leaders in the state Assembly and the Senate have yielded to a rising chorus of protest from mayors — many of them Republican — coming out against the Pilgrim’s progress
@CNBCnow:
BREAKING:
US weekly jobless claims total 289,000 vs. 295,000 expected.
If Obama had balls, he’d ask Sony to personally screen “The Interview” in the White house. And invite Dennis Rodman to watch it with him.
Your comment makes no sense. The guy is a climate change drone. His opinions are driven less by issues with fracking and more about using alternatives such as wind and solar. Once he leads with his general philosophical thrust, the rest of it is jury rigged arguments to fill up the void between his agenda and fitting it into a debate on fracking in NYS.
Fabius Maximus says:
December 18, 2014 at 7:44 am
Chi yesterday
“shale oil = Republican money”
Well, that shows a deep misunderstanding of issue.
Here’s a guy from Cornell that may enlighten you.
http://www.sustainablecampus.cornell.edu/blogs/news/posts/fracking-experts-debate-economic-environmental-impact
The Sony “hack” was most likely an inside job…..a disgruntled employee or ex-employee….
Re: NY Casinos;
Meh. From Morris County I can be at Mt. Airy (dump); Sands (priced above its worth); or Mohegan Sun/Pocono Downs in less time than it takes me to get to AC. Parx is just as far as AC. If I’m thinking about driving to AC, I’m also thinking about going to CT; or maybe even Turning Stone near Syracuse; or Niagara Falls if I’m going to Western NY.
The genie is out of the bottle on gambling. Driving across Louisiana/Mississippi about a decade ago: their casino boom led to the average casino being a dozen slot machines in a room next to the Kwik-Mart at every truck stop.
In moderation; the usual speeling adjustments only seem to make it worse.
Actually is a sure bet that all of those casin0s are kaputs.
Not noticed, is the ruling by the US Justice Dept late last friday that allows US Govt recognize Indian tribes to: grow, cultivate, and sell on their property Maryjane.
So all the boomer geezers, are going to be going to Foxwood to light up and spend their SS monies.
Moose, totally agree. Hate this whole movement.
New Jersey’s public employee pension plans ranked among the least generous of top public pension plans in the country, according to a report released today.
The study shows New Jersey’s pensions are more modest than 94 of the country’s 100 largest plans.
Gordon MacInnes, president of New Jersey Policy Perspective, a left-leaning think tank, said the results push back against the myth that New Jersey’s public workers enjoy lucrative pensions.
“It’s crucial that we not be misguided by… inflammatory statements that depict New Jersey’s benefits in a light that is inaccurate,” he said today.
The study considered whether pension plans protect retirees from rising inflation, how benefits are calculated and how much employees contribute to their plans.
New Jersey fell in the bottom half in all three fields, which Stephen Herzenberg, the Executive Director of the Keystone Research Center, who authored the report, called the three most important dimensions of generosity.
“New Jersey public employees face a triple-whammy that gives them among the worst pensions in the country,” he said today. “They contribute heavily to their own pensions, receive only modest pension increases with each additional year of service and get no inflation protection at all in their benefits.”
Workers kick in 6.93 percent of their pay — and that number is rising — while employees contribute less in more than half of the other systems, according to the findings.
New Jersey’s retirees do not receive yearly cost-of-living adjustments to offset inflation, unlike 69 other plans included in the study that offer some protection from inflation. Retirees are suing to restore the cost-of-living increases that Gov. Chris Christie suspended as part of a 2011 pension reform package.
The state’s formula for calculating pension payments also uses a low multiplier — 1.67 percent — that lands it in the bottom quarter of plans.
The report notes that Garden State workers also receive some of the lowest pension benefits, but those were not factored into the rankings.
On average, pension benefits are $26,000 a year. Local government employees receive less on average, $16,000, while teachers receive more, $40,000. State employees collect $25,000.
Because police and fire retirees do not participate in Social Security and receive higher payouts their plans were not considered.
“In addition to being some of the least generous pensions in the country, New Jersey’s pensions are modest in dollar amounts, even though the Garden State remains one of the highest-cost states in which to live,” according to the report.
The policy group argued public workers shouldn’t be saddled with blame for the state’s strapped pension system.
New Jersey has roughly $82.8 billion in unfunded pension liabilities (that figure more than doubled under new accounting rules). And the two largest pension plans, Public Employees Retirement System and the Teachers Pension and Annuity Fund, could run out of money by the end of 2024 and 2027, respectively, according to the Christie administration.
The pension system has been underfunded since 1996, with governors regularly deferring or skipping legally required payments in order to plug gaps in the state budget.
Gov. Chris Christie is on that list of governors. In June, he broke a promise to increase payments into the system in return for a reform package that raised the retirement age from 62 to 65, eliminated those cost-of-living increases and required workers to contribute more toward their pensions and health benefits.
Prior to those changes made in 2011, New Jersey’s generosity may have ranked in the middle of the heap, Herzenberg said.
“Employees’ sacrifices made in 2011 were huge,” he said. “In a situation where lots of states were walking backward in terms of the generosity of pensions, New Jersey walked a long way back.”
Christie has warned that overhaul wasn’t enough and additional changes are necessary to prevent the pension problem from crippling New Jersey’s finances.
Most observers expect a committee Christie commissioned to find solutions the pension crisis will recommend slashing health care benefits, which add another $53 billion to the unfunded liabilities.
A spokesman for Christie did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/nj_public_worker_pensions_not_so_generous_after_all_study_says.html#incart_most-read
Thanks, Michael.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 18, 2014 at 10:40 am
New Jersey’s public employee pension plans ranked among the least generous of top public pension plans in the country, according to a report released today.
This has been my firm belief since the public workers in our state started getting attacked by Christie. I laugh when people think govt workers are rich. It’s really rather comical. The avg govt worker makes nothing. When people give examples of how govt workers are getting rich off the system, they forgot that is the few. Who are the few, the politically connected politicians. If these people were not in govt, their connections would still do well in the private industry. Makes no difference, they are connected, and that is the bottom line. It doesn’t matter if you have connections with big dogs in govt or big dogs in the private industry. The only difference between the two, is that private nepotism pays a lot more than public nepotism ( public salaries and monetary payments are public….private is private…impossible to find out how someone is taking advantage, so obviously they will take advantage even more). You will never ever be able to eliminate nepotism. It’s not a govt thing, it’s a human condition. So wailing on some govt employee making 50,000 a year in a high cost state is wrong. Stealing their pension is just straight up evil.
anon (the good one) says:
December 18, 2014 at 12:49 pm
Thanks, Michael.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 18, 2014 at 10:40 am
New Jersey’s public employee pension plans ranked among the least generous of top public pension plans in the country, according to a report released today.
On avg, they receive 26,000 a year. Talk about stealing from the poor. Too bad people will use police and firemen salaries and pensions and apply it to all govt workers. Teachers avg 40,000. Better than the avg govt worker, but not some get rich scheme that people portray the pension system as.
So go after all the 6 figure pensioners. Those are the people that are taking advantage of the tax payers. Don’t attack the regular worker.
“On average, pension benefits are $26,000 a year. Local government employees receive less on average, $16,000, while teachers receive more, $40,000. State employees collect $25,000.
Because police and fire retirees do not participate in Social Security and receive higher payouts their plans were not considered”
23 – Government workers should be on the phone everyday screaming at their (Democratic) representatives in the State legislature to cut wasteful and entitlement spending and to stop borrowing money so that their pensions can be properly funded.
I go away for a week and come back to Anon and Passion Fruit in a circle jerk over an article written by a lefty progressive who worked at the US department of labor. Some things never change.
Baa Baa.
Passion Fruit. Go look up any Essex County firefighter or cop in a blue ribbony town. Find me one with less than ten years of experience making under six figures. It’s like looking for a needle in the haystack. And when you and me retire, we’ll be lucky to collect a third of what they do after they worked only 25 years.
I am approaching 16 years at my current employ. I have contributed between 5 and 15% of my salary since day one. Probably averaged about 8% contributions over the years (maybe higher). My 401K is at a whopping 280K. And I’ve managed to avoid the bubble busts better than nearly any fund manager out there. In another 9 years, if I am lucky, I’ll have 700K. Blow it out your arse.
As for the Chris Rock tweet, one gets in trouble paying homage to crackheads.
Obama.
Ends 2 wars. (which wars were they?) Last I checked ISIS is taking over and is twice as scary as as Al Queda.
Gas prices $2. What exactly did Obama have to do with this? Saudi Arabia is trying to kill the fracking industry and the US’ self dependance on it. Obama is helping the arabs by stopping key LNG pipelines.
Makes peace with Cuba. Really? Last I looked he couldn’t even close our prison there. Free Cigars for everyone. Maybe he could use one on Michelle like Clinton did on the intern.
Gets people health insurance. Yup, he sure did. My family plan went up $700 this year to pay for it.
Unemployment lowest in yrs. Where are the real full time jobs? And it had no place to go but down. He essentially started the game of monopoly with Boardwalk and Park Place.
Get him on Mt Rushmore! There’s not enough granite in those hills to fit a head that has gotten that big.
And to the realists here, I can say, I’ve missed you.
Lib, what’s wrong with the author. Nothing in his resume tells me that I shouldn’t trust a report written by this man. A small stint with the govt doesn’t make him a biased source on the issue.
Stephen Herzenberg has been the Executive Director of the Keystone Research Center since the organization began operating in 1996. He holds a PhD in Economics from MIT. Before joining Keystone, Steve taught at Rutgers University and worked at the U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). At USDOL, he served as assistant to the chief negotiator of the labor side agreement to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
BTW, Herzenberg is a Man U fan. Enough said.
He is a pro labor twit. Dig deeper.
Did you do what I asked you too?
What town do you live in Passion Fruit? Let me look up what a cop makes there. Or a fireman? Or your school super?
Lib, I’m not talking about the cops or firemen. You know better than me that those jobs do not represent the govt worker I’m talking about. Police and firemen are pretty much politicians, most are connected to some political figure in the town that they work. I specifically stated that in the post. Here’s the post. You did exactly what I stated people do, use cops and firemen salaries and apply it to all govt workers.
“On avg, they receive 26,000 a year. Talk about stealing from the poor. Too bad people will use police and firemen salaries, their pensions, and apply it to all govt workers. Teachers avg 40,000. Better than the avg govt worker, but not some get rich scheme that people portray the pension system as.”
[22] punk’in
” The avg govt worker makes nothing.”
You got that right. That’s why they’re paid commensurately.
[32] punk’in
And as for teachers, even in the Brig, they drove nicer cars than the parents.
When the help makes more than the people they work for, something is amiss.
Lib [26];
In another 9 years, if I am lucky, I’ll have 700K.
No you won’t. The next [more] radical leftist that is elected president will seize it all — “For the common good”, of course.
LMAO!
http://radaronline.com/exclusives/2014/12/teresa-giudice-joe-giudice-home-raided-fraud-case-rhonj/
“Because it’s different here.”
Holy Dow WTF?
Michael [32];
You know better than me that those jobs do not represent the govt worker I’m talking about.
You’re cherry picking. You can’t ignore the big ticket items and then say “gov’t workers make peanuts”. Look where the money is going; its going to six-figure cops and six-figure school administrators, and $80k teachers who get platinum health benefits which should be converted to dollars if we’re going to compare apples to apples with private sector.
Don’t just tell me the township file clerks make $30k and call that representative. And when you talk about teachers (rank and file), lets not forget that they are paid what they are paid for 10 months of work a year. Even if they are only getting paid $40k (a number I don’t believe), that annualizes to $48k a year.
Grim [37];
Run, BABY, RUN!
Damn it! Websites got to stop sliding things around under my cursor just before I click.
That’s right, you want some loser teaching your kid. That’s what you will get when you pay a teacher a top salary of 50,000 a year to teach. No one in their right mind would do it. Go to college to make 50,000. Would you be happy if your son or daughter went this route? You know, paying their college tuition so they could top out at 50,000. I’m sure you would be really happy. Now when I apply the salary to your own life, do you see how rediculous you sound.
Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:
December 18, 2014 at 4:21 pm
[32] punk’in
And as for teachers, even in the Brig, they drove nicer cars than the parents.
When the help makes more than the people they work for, something is amiss.
How’d that work out?
At USDOL, he served as assistant to the chief negotiator of the labor side agreement to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Go back to my past posts. I stated that the stock market rally is just getting started. Stated that any correction or pull back will quickly recover and pull ahead some more. Exactly what is happening.
grim says:
December 18, 2014 at 4:26 pm
Holy Dow WTF?
Once again, I don’t think 80,000 is too much for a teacher to top out at. I’m a firm believer in “you get what you pay for”. If you complain about teacher quality at current pay levels, do you think the quality will improve if they top out at 50,000?
Anon E. Moose says:
December 18, 2014 at 4:28 pm
Michael [32];
You know better than me that those jobs do not represent the govt worker I’m talking about.
You’re cherry picking. You can’t ignore the big ticket items and then say “gov’t workers make peanuts”. Look where the money is going; its going to six-figure cops and six-figure school administrators, and $80k teachers who get platinum health benefits which should be converted to dollars if we’re going to compare apples to apples with private sector.
Don’t just tell me the township file clerks make $30k and call that representative. And when you talk about teachers (rank and file), lets not forget that they are paid what they are paid for 10 months of work a year. Even if they are only getting paid $40k (a number I don’t believe), that annualizes to $48k a year.
Pum’kin [44];
I don’t think 80,000 is too much for a teacher to top out at. I’m a firm believer in “you get what you pay for”.
Easy for you to say that when you’re spending my money.
Maybe they should make that at Pingry or Delbarton. And if those parents want to pay the freight, go for it.
If you complain about teacher quality at current pay levels, do you think the quality will improve if they top out at 50,000?
Teacher and school quality will improve to the extent that the apparatus is responsive to those paying the freight. If they continue to union up, protect the incompetent, and vote themselves a negotiating partner who is beholden to them, then nothing will improve with the public school system.
Your money?…Did you ever receive a public education? I bet you did.
If you want to get rid of a public education, just make sure you reimburse the current generation for your free education.
And what are you going to do with all your money when you have a group of uneducated citizens knocking on your door with a machete. It’s a proven fact that uneducated people do not follow society’s rules…..they don’t have the ability to understand it.
Here’s your average $80k public union teachers at work:
http://news.yahoo.com/misspelled-sign-paterson-nj-school-principal-141949588.html
And I went to parochial school, the only people I have to thank for that are my parents, which I have done and continue to do. They never got reimbursed for my unused seat at the public school.
Con’t [48];
I know I’ve said this before, but Paterson must be so glad they ran Joe Clark out of town 25 years ago.
34: There are #’d spots in one of the lots in our town’s HS, in close proximity to the visitor’s spots. I had to quickly run something in to my daughter the other day and apparently had taken a teacher’s spot. Upon returning to my car, you would have thought I physically assaulted her the way she reacted to making her wait.
Is it too soon to predict the extinction of the human race?
I predict The Interview will premiere before April 1, 2015.
guess nobody wants to talk about new jersey real estate today…
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[47] punkin
“And what are you going to do with all your money when you have a group of uneducated citizens knocking on your door with a machete. It’s a proven fact that uneducated people do not follow society’s rules”
One rule is never bring a knife, even a very large knife, to a gunfight.
[41] punkin,
If the geniuses won’t do the job for 50K, then it doesn’t matter how smart they are. They won’t do any more than the “loser” who doesn’t know how to spell four syllable words.
I want to pay less because I am going to use that money to hire tutors. I spend the same but I get more. And getting more for your money doesn’t sound “rediculous” to me.
I would just be happy if I could slug turdblossom in the face. Once.
#53 ccb223
“guess nobody wants to talk about new jersey real estate today…”
Ab0ut 3/4 done renovating/restoring the main bath in my Victorian. Holy Sheet it’s been more work than I thought and I’ve done bathrooms before, many times. The plaster does now look like sheetrock, though (yeah, that smooth).
Craigslist and Ebay made it easy to find almost mint hardware and accessories ect. Just need a small stream radiator…eh, I’ll find one (for what I want to pay). Plenty out there.
Once it’s done, I’ll never have to do it again (A plus for period homes).
Not looking forward to putting in a new tin ceiling in the kitchen…but…
Ya know, that’s a big advantage to owning a desirable ‘period’ house…no need for updates as the decades roll by. Sure, they are a ‘niche’ market but priced right (as usual) and fully restored in a good location, they sell in DAYS. Sometimes with a little bidding war! (seen it here).
Had to wait two years for this diamond in the rough. Well worth it. Paid cash so…when the kids are grown and out on their own (not many years from now) the wife and I could be GONE, QUICK, if we want to.
Yeah, yeah, towns change and as the saying goes “Demographics is destiny”. Don’t see much being different for at least two decades, here (look at the kids in a town’s schools and you’ll see the future).
If demographics is destiny, we’re about to be overrun by Hispanics.
This year, it will require $435K in income to be in the 1%. Jury is out on whether we make it this year.
I’ll take the bait (unusual for me but I’ve had a few beers).
There’s not much for Jose and Margarita, here (work or quarters). Other ‘urban’ areas in Warren Co. accommodate them (Hackettstown, Washington and Pburg.).
Where you live is definitely different than were I do.
.
I dunno.
Duh.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102255780
#14 Chi
And your comments are driven by, what exactly?
Gas at any cost as long as it drives overall prices down. Doesn’t matter the local impact, its all macro, riaght?