From the WSJ:
U.S. Home Sales Falter to Start Year
Sales of previously owned homes slowed in January, a reflection of the rising prices and tight supplies that could constrain the housing market this year.
Existing-home sales fell 4.9% last month from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million, the National Association of Realtors said on Monday, the slowest pace in nine months.
Weather didn’t appear to be a big factor in the report, which showed sales falling across all regions of the country. While New England was buffeted by blizzard conditions, January overall was warm and dry in the contiguous U.S., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The median sale price for a previously owned home, meanwhile, rose 6.2% from a year earlier to $199,600. Year over year, prices have climbed for 35 straight months.
“One of the big problems is the supply of homes,” Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, said in a note to clients. “Basically, buyers have limited options as the inventory is hovering near some of the lowest levels we have seen in the last fifteen years.”
At the current sales pace, it would take around 4.7 months to exhaust the supply of homes on the market, the NAR said.
Construction of more homes could help ease the situation, but home building also has remained subdued.
…
Housing has been a missing piece of the recovery, making only a small contribution to overall economic growth last year. Many economists expect sales to accelerate this year amid steady hiring, still-low interest rates and the formation of new households, though the year is off to a bumpy start.
First?
First
Wait it is a 946 tie and the tie breaker goes to FKA
9:46 is late…this is the first time I’m first in the 9+ years I’ve been visiting the site.
I’d give the decision to JJ for assertiveness over FKA’s tentative question.
–Damn right I’m first, pilgrim… — The Duke
What could go wrong with this business? I could see college kids going back and forth to school probably taking them up on their offer.
————
Would you courier strangers’ stuff on your flight for $500?
Launching today, Carry is selling itself as an Airbnb of the courier sphere. Travelers simply enter their start point, end point, dates, the size of package they’re willing/able to carry, and how much money they’re willing to carry it for. It’s essentially a peer-to-peer platform that connects shippers with travelers.
http://venturebeat.com/2014/12/10/would-you-courier-strangers-stuff-on-your-flight-for-500-this-startup-certainly-hopes-so/
Yeah post was stuck in drafts, for some reason it didn’t get posted around 6ish.
Montklair School System descending into chaos. Superintendent quit, budget deficit over over $10M announced last night. Teacher contract with MEA to be negotiated this year. Healthcare costs projected to increase by somewhere around $5M for next year.
Even if Montklair raises school taxes by 7.3% (the full amount of their banked cap) they will still apparently need to make staffing cuts.
No surprise to me, who knows the garbage better than who created it.
————–
Wall Street Refugees Running Freddie Mac
Way up in a Manhattan skyscraper, a band of Wall Street refugees is quietly staking billions of dollars on the American mortgage machine. Their pedigrees are A-list: Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Credit Suisse Group AG. Their job is to prowl for an edge in the $6 trillion market for home-loan securities, a place where, just seven years ago, greed and hubris collided in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. It might sound like some high-flying hedge fund, but it’s not. It’s Freddie Mac, the taxpayer-backed mortgage giant that collapsed in 2008, along with its larger cousin, Fannie Mae. Today, after multibillion-dollar bailouts, both effectively are still wards of the state. Which is why what’s happening inside Freddie Mac might come as a surprise. With little fanfare, the company has recruited traders from major banks and empowered some to place new wagers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/meet-the-wall-street-refugees-running-freddie-mac-s-bond-trades
Oh and increased teacher doctor visits for this year are being blamed by the angry public on the PARCC exam.
Read ’em an’ weep muppets!
http://money.cnn.com/calculator/pf/income-rank/
Dog ate my homework? Shut up!
grim says:
February 24, 2015 at 10:07 am
Yeah post was stuck in drafts, for some reason it didn’t get posted around 6ish.
NJGator,
What do you mean by “banked cap”?
“Banked cap” is Montklairese for “we’re fcuked”.
Looks like the children of the PRM are doomed to the fate of Third World child soldiers.
Oh, the humanity…
Just give ’em all machetes and an AK, then close up shop.
“Basically, buyers have limited options as the inventory is hovering near some of the lowest levels we have seen in the last fifteen years.”
I just tacked another $5000 on the asking price of my house. Supply and demand. F.uck you, pay me.
Lending is dirt cheap yet there’s nothing for sale, nothing to buy. An ocean of underwater muppets with no option but to pay the
rentmortgage.Joyce (13) – Under Fat Man’s property tax caps, any years you don’t actually raise taxes to the max, you can “bank” the difference….and save that tax hike for a future year.
Montclair didn’t increase the school tax levy significantly for the last few years because they were spending down the windfall of the last Super’s fund balance (he padded his budgets). This year the fund balance is gone and since they spent the one time funds on recurring revenues, they have a huge budget gap to fill. If they choose they can raise the school tax levy this year by over 7% and it will all be within Christie’s limits.
That may be an oversimplified explanation, but I think it sums it all up.
I was aware of loopholes in the “cap” … so wide you could drive a tractor trailer through them. But didn’t know of that. Pathetic.
21 – The incentive becomes one of – spend to the cap every year, since you won’t receive credit or praise for coming in below your cap anyway.
On the flip side – banking your cap and then whacking your population with a 7% increase in one lump is sure to get noticed.
Better to choose the slow unnoticed bleed of your constituents as opposed to beheading them.
If Healthcare is going up by 5 million, you need to be on the back of Horizon. Pretty soon they’ll argue health insurance is 40k per person.
Joyce (21) – it’s supposed to be an “incentive” for towns not to raise taxes each year to the max – to discourage a spend now or it’s too mate mentality. But yes, pathetic.
They have a school tax cap of 2% in NY.
Higher taxed towns who like to spend spend spend figured out quickly.
Lets say school budget is 100 million. You need 10 million for a big project plus usually max 1.5% increase.
Town will issue 10 million of munis at 2 percent interest. Put the $200,000 interest in budget no the 10 million Now they have 2% of 100 million max they can raise their budget which is 2 million minus 1.79999 million and be under the 2% cap.
However, school districts in last two years are piling up long term debt. Guess what today’s 50 year old Dad with three kids in the district gets all new things for his kids. And by time bond comes due in 30 years he will be in Florida and new homeowner gets bill.
“However, school districts in last two years are piling up long term debt. Guess what today’s 50 year old Dad with three kids in the district gets all new things for his kids. And by time bond comes due in 30 years he will be in Florida and new homeowner gets bill.”
This is the Montclair MO. They have something close to 200 million in recently refinanced long-term debt. Of course the credit rating is high as short-term costs are now lower. Financial alchemy at the local level.
I can only go by my experience but I just ran the numbers. I saw 17 homes in Fairfield between beginning of October and end of Dec. Right now, 12 have sold or under contract. I personally was outbid 3 times and two ended up selling at 99% of current ask. One of them sold for 3% more than ask. The common demoninator is proper pricing. Most of 12 that sold went through 10-15% price reductions. The five sitting (or removed) have serious size or condition issues. All have been on market for 8-10 mos. some with only 3% reductions or in 3 cases, no price reductions. Clear that we have a pricing problem, not inventory problem. Sellers and realwhores are not realistic most of the time.
Some Czech shot up a restaurant over there, killing 8.
Twitless busy searching for a tweet, blaming the NRA for it.
climate change
@NWSEastern:
40 new record lows across the East today and 27 record lows yesterday. Several broke 100+ year old records.
@BloombergFed:
“I think we are just beginning to understand how the millennials are behaving”—Yellen
Humm Gov Christie is trying to get out in front of the pension debacle.
However NJEA says no deal, who is lying?
http://m.njea.org/news/2015-02-24/njea-no-agreement-on-pensions
Get rid of all local government and regionalize at the county level. Use the massive windfall to pay the pensions in full and then convert all new and current government employees to a 401K system. Use the leftover savings, and there will be a ton of it, to lower everyone’s taxes.
There you go. The perfect solution. Will never happen. We are all ill-informed sheep.
Amen. I wish we could just eliminate insurance. There has to be a better way.
When insurance is forced by law, it now has become a tax and scam. Simple as that.
Ben says:
February 24, 2015 at 11:37 am
If Healthcare is going up by 5 million, you need to be on the back of Horizon. Pretty soon they’ll argue health insurance is 40k per person.
Will never happen because the politicians will never give away their atm machine, aka the pension funds. Those funds helped lower taxes for a long long time. Also, having a 401k means that the govt will actually contribute to the funds instead of raiding them. Meaning, no chance in hell.
Libturd in Union says:
February 24, 2015 at 1:17 pm
Get rid of all local government and regionalize at the county level. Use the massive windfall to pay the pensions in full and then convert all new and current government employees to a 401K system. Use the leftover savings, and there will be a ton of it, to lower everyone’s taxes.
There you go. The perfect solution. Will never happen. We are all ill-informed sheep.
Lib – That’s the nature of 4 cylinder engines. My 2011 Mazda 6 luckily has factory remote start, but it shuts off after 10 minutes. On days like today I start it twice, for a grand total of 20 minutes, before I drive it away.
I could have used some global warming in my car this morning. Damn heat didn’t come on until mile 144 on the GSP. Damn that tiny engine in my Mazda 6.
How much has the state contributed to the pension funds in the past 20 years? How much would the state have contributed if this was a 401k? That’s the problem. The state has not been contributing anything. So changing it to a 401k will hurt the state even more, now they will actually have to make full contributions. All you need to know here is that the worker will be shafted. They will take all the blame for having a “pension”, meanwhile they will never see this “pension” due to corrupt politicians. Don’t kick the worker, they don’t have it as good as the politicans like fat man make you think. They will show a 1% getting rich off the pension system by triple dipping and get the public to believe that all govt employees are doing this. Wrong in every way possible.
Clear that we have a pricing problem, not inventory problem. Sellers and realwhores are not realistic most of the time.
I’m having more and more trouble finding anything worthwhile and the stuff I do see is at an asking price apparently pulled from a hat. The only house I saw this past two weeks was an open house in Park Ridge that was taking offers on the dining room table while we were there and priced in the low 500s. It was a split and needed nothing, it was all done. The only problem was very little yard and the square footage wasn’t much more than what I have now. If I could find that house with another 750 to 1000 sq. feet of living space, I’d be packing.
Another short sale. That’s the majority of everything I see now. People are beginning to run out of gas:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1505767
Eddie: if your search is set for low $ in desirable areas, short sales is what you’ll get.
Fast Eddie,
With interest rates low, sellers want to sell their houses not on price but on monthly payment affordability. And there are some takers on that proposition.
Stuff happens, sorry.
Similarly, some people buy stocks because they think a 2% current dividend yield beats a 0.25% yield. Well, if prices fall they may be sorry.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rent-affordability-will-deteriorate-over-next-two-years–zillow-ceo-143648411.html
Ragnar,
Similarly, some people buy stocks because they think a 2% current dividend yield beats a 0.25% yield.
That’s an excellent illustration. This is what I’m dealing with and why I refuse to play with these f.ucking m0rons.
Eddie: if your search is set for low $ in desirable areas, short sales is what you’ll get.
Wanna make a bet?
Expat, need a laugh?
When I saw “East Boston”, my first thought was, okay, which country is this yabo from?
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/02/24/massdot-releases-video-dramatic-crash/aMS3reqyNxwGtDMCT53aWP/story.html
No idea, but I am guessing Asian.
[44] redux,
By way of explanation, no one is “from” East Boston. Everyone there is from somewhere else, and that somewhere else typically isn’t one of our 50 states.
[34]
“Also, having a 401k means that the govt will actually contribute to the funds instead of raiding them.”
If it was OK for the govt. to not contribute to the pension fund, why wouldn’t it be OK to reneg on the 401K contribution also? Same game, different name.
Who said the state is contributing? Healthcare for life for worker and spouse is enough.
Not every employer that has setup a 401(k) plan for the employees provides matching contributions.
Eddie, no need, really. The three shorts in Wykoff are at 419,597, and 635 k$, all in the low end of the price scale for that town.
DaBomb,
Sure. Now, let’s add the number of late payments and those underwater. What’s that total figure? How long before they turn into a short sale? I mean, since you have a pulse on the issue.
Why, why in the name of Beelzebub I wrote to you. Have a nice day
Banks probed by US regulators over price-rigging precious metals
http://news.yahoo.com/banks-probed-us-regulators-over-172000804.html
A number of top-tier global investment banks are under investigation by U.S. regulators over possible price-fixing of precious metals such as gold and silver, according to The Wall Street Journal, who cited people close to the investigation.At least 10 banks are reportedly facing scrutiny by both the US Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Justice Department is investing the price-setting process by banks in London, while the CFTC has opened a civil investigation.
Banks named in the WSJ report include HSBC Holdings (HKSE: 0005.HK – news) , Bank of Nova Scotia , Barclays (Hanover: BCY.HA – news) , Credit Suisse Group , Deutsche Bank (LSE: 0H7D.L – news) , Goldman Sachs Group , JP Morgan Chase , Société Générale , Standard Bank Group and UBS .
The investigation marks another dramatic turn in price manipulation allegations in the global banking sector after fines and settlements for some high-profile banks over the past two years following news that Libor and foreign exchange markets were rigged.
There’s 22 houses at $600,000 and above currently in pre foreclosure in prestigious Wyckoff. Anecdotally, I’ll introduce you to three guys I know who regret buying at the peak and have no way out. One of the guys lost his job in Lower Manahattan in 2008 and is now driving a limo and selling jewelry from his buddies home office setup in a basement in Hawthorne. Another guy lost his job in the city but landed another at 70% of his last base. His wife is working full time in a day care. The numbers are staggering. Ask yourself why there’s no inventory? Most of you guys don’t know sh1t. You have no idea what’s going on behind the scenes, you just tout the latest “data” as g0spel. Gimme a f.ucking break.
#50..why go to short sale? They don’t have to pay the mortgage, just the property tax. Guy up the block from me has not made a mortgage payment since 2009. Nobody is kicking anyone out of the house, as long as tax is lower than rent I do not see these houses clearing for 10-30 years
[50] Fast Eddie
If it’s a short sale, then the owner at least is admitting they can’t continue to pay for their house. I wonder how many people are in that situation?
Maybe this is an opportunity to find your dream home in a different way. Put together a nice letter stating that you would be interested in purchasing their house. Granted you wouldn’t know what the property looks like inside but from the outside, if they match what you are looking at…give them a flyer. You have nothing to lose.
[55],
I have a letter drawn up and have made one or two stops. I will need to turn up the search using this method.
[54] 1987 Condo
Not paying their mortgage, their credit is going to sh$% making it hard to get a nice rental. When they eventually get foreclosed on, then what? What’s the end game?
Is there such a thing as sub-prime rental? If you have bad credit, can you still rent a decent place? Offer $200 more than what they are asking for?
Why, why in the name of Beelzebub I wrote to you. Have a nice day.
C’mon, don’t bail now! Tell us how these people are bleeding wealth! That’s what a house tour guide told me!
[56] Fast Eddie
Just make sure your letter includes any terms used on this site like bagholder, POS ranch…lol
#57…if people thought through to the “end game” there would be much different behavior in general…..
I did not say people are bleeding wealth. You have a funny way of dialogue. First you wanted to bet on where $-wise the shorts are, then you tell me of your buddy peddling shinny off his basement. OK. Let’s look at the data you provided. 22 houses in “pre-foreclosure” is about 0.5% of the housing stock of that town. What’s your point?
Money talks, bullsh1t walks. If you don’t have at least 20% to put down and then that same amount stashed away, then take a f.ucking seat. And retirement accounts don’t count; I’m talking about liquid cash on top of the down payment.
Move along, nothing to see here….
————-
The disappeared: Chicago police detain Americans at abuse-laden ‘black site’
The Chicago police department operates an off-the-books interrogation compound, rendering Americans unable to be found by family or attorneys while locked inside what lawyers say is the domestic equivalent of a CIA black site.
The facility, a nondescript warehouse on Chicago’s west side known as Homan Square, has long been the scene of secretive work by special police units. Interviews with local attorneys and one protester who spent the better part of a day shackled in Homan Square describe operations that deny access to basic constitutional rights.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/feb/24/chicago-police-detain-americans-black-site?CMP=share_btn_tw
Ahh, spirited discursions taking place here today. That’s what I like. Eddie, I sometimes like your home listing. The Wyckoff short being a good example, it’s actually not that bad if you could take a bit off the price. I also like how you carefully worked in a pink bathroom from that listing to tie-in with the discussions from last week. well done!
I personally dont know a single person who lost their job in recession and I assume everyone has a corner office and plenty of money. No one is struggling.
Think about it. For folks in high paying banking or brokerage jobs when folks are fired it is like witness protection. They disappear on a Friday night after five pm usually pay day or are escorted stright to HR when they arrive at work.
Most firms do not allow current employees to give references to ex-employees and we dont talk about ex-employees, no goodbye parties, no long emails, they are just gone. And remember we are all Alpha Tiger Males who assume it can never happen to us.
Dow, S&P 500 end at record highs; Nasdaq extends win streak to 10
I need a DOW 20K hat soon!!
Price adjusted of the top 21 brands for Reliability – Buick, Kia, Hyundai and Chevy seem like good bargains considering how cheap some of their cars are.
Mercedes Benz is a disgrace considering cost and sad that Caddie got beat by Chevy.
Impressive the Chevy Impala and Buick Regal both beat similar size BMWs and Mercedes by a wide margin at around 1/2 the cost.
2015 Consumer Reports Magazine’s Brand Rankings
(1) Lexus
(2) Mazda
(3) Toyota
(4) Audi
(5) Subaru
(6) Porsche
(7) Buick
(8) Honda
(9) Kia
(10) BMW
(11) Acura
(12) Volvo
(13) Hyundai
(14) GMC
(15) Volkswagen
(16) Lincoln
(17) Infiniti
(18) Nissan
(19) Chevrolet
(20) Cadillac
(21) Mercedes-Benz
Mazda baby!
I just bought two of them.
#57
“Not paying their mortgage, their credit is going to sh$% making it hard to get a nice rental. When they eventually get foreclosed on, then what? What’s the end game?”.
Saving up enough money to buy their next house cash.
I know one person and one couple doing this or should I say have the discipline to attempt it. The couple already has enough (after 5 years+ of not paying) but want to save for new cars, too. The single guy just started 3 years ago but is more than halfway there.
Both are staying and not paying until they meet their goal or are under threat of being physically removed by the Sherriff.
I also know several people that are far underwater that stopped paying years ago and use the money that went towards the mortgage for fun and toys.
I don’t know anyone in NJ that was or is under serious threat of being evicted from their property for failure to pay the mortgage. My loser brother-in-law managed 5 years in Florida and just got kicked out on Friday. Where’s he going? To live with relatives. Like most he saved little and was unemployed for half the time he didn’t pay.
chi channeling JJ:
What do you call an abortion in Prague?
A cancelled Czech….
Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:
February 24, 2015 at 12:53 pm
Some Czech shot up a restaurant over there, killing 8.
Twitless busy searching for a tweet, blaming the NRA for it.
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Must be nice….
Revel buyer to get casino at lower price after striking new deal
The winning bidder of the troubled Revel Casino Hotel will be buying the structure for a price that’s 14 percent lower than the original deal.
Revel AC, the parent company of Revel Entertainment Group, has entered into an amended and restated asset purchase agreement with Glenn Straub’s Polo North Country Club. This comes days after a bankruptcy judge said she would terminate the previous deal.
The new purchase price is $82 million with a closing date of March 31. The price is 14 percent lower than the original agreed-upon price of $95.4 million.
http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2015/02/24/revel-buyer-to-get-casino-at-lower-price-after.html
Nom – It was all over the news this morning from 6AM on. You couldn’t go 5 minutes on any channel without seeing it from all angles again. They mentioned this morning that he’s had other surchargeable accidents and speeding violations too. Him and his family looked Phillipino or something of that ilk when they showed them arriving home on the news this morning.
Expat, need a laugh?
When I saw “East Boston”, my first thought was, okay, which country is this yabo from?
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/02/24/massdot-releases-video-dramatic-crash/aMS3reqyNxwGtDMCT53aWP/story.html
No idea, but I am guessing Asian.
Re: My post #69:
All three of those homeowners/’bagholders’ I described above bought houses they just ‘had to have’ during the bubble. All three lost their jobs during the crash with two regaining almost the same paying employment within a year or two.
Yeah, they let their emotions get the best of them and made a bad decision (Titanic – pardon the pun – if you ask me) buying those boat anchors. Two though are doing what they can to make the best of it and are trying to turn things around ie: ‘Bouncing back’ and they won’t make the same mistake twice (My brother-in-law probably will).
So, they were not ‘strategic defaults’ rather, an acceptance of reality.
Back in 2007 I got slammed with an extraordinary medical bill (not for me – long story) while between gigs. Didn’t stop paying the mortgage (dragged out taxes and other things as long as I could, though) knowing that, usually, after three months, you’re never going to catch up. Escaped in 2012 with enough equity, assets and savings to start over in another place.
Remember, most of us here are one big medical bill away from bankruptcy unless you have millions (I don’t) or some unique skill to trade (I know someone that did that…master bamboo flyrod maker – ‘Entry level’ rods start at $5000).
Back to the ‘Bagholders’. I have two close friends that also bought bubble (didn’t tell me they were thinking about it until they did because they knew what I’d tell them).
Both couples while now ‘underwater’ by about $200,000 have no problem paying the bills and intend to stay in the houses until they die (or property taxes drive them out – they don’t want to hear it).
The current no-eviction situation is allowing some to recover but most are not taking advantage of it.
I’ve noticed (in my area – Warren County) all of a sudden, banks are unloading abandoned (foolish on the part of those that occupied them) properties that have been sitting for years. Unfortunately, now, most need so much work…they are not worth it. I’m leveraged out at the moment but if I wasn’t there are a FEW deals to be had (IF you’re handy and/or have contractor friends).
Eddie/Rag
“Money talks, bullsh1t walks. If you don’t have at least 20% to put down and then that same amount stashed away, then take a f.ucking seat. And retirement accounts don’t count; I’m talking about liquid cash on top of the down payment”
The trend is your friend.
And while you are right from every financial, social, accountability and other perspective the Fed Gov is teeing up a monster response for the majority.
Every ‘bagholder’, every ‘underwater’ occupant is the trend.
Which policy do you think FedGovCo is going to implement? The socially accountable one followed by a slim minority, or the one that takes care of the millions of bagholders?
I know the answer. You are right, but you will lose.
JJ #65
Been on both sides of that, once. Done working for Orgs. like them. If I never set foot in Manhattan again that’s fine with me (Nope, won’t even go for the tree at Christmas).
Yep- Phony, Fraudy, FHA sausage grinder getting primed for more mayhem. And once again, the extruder will be the US taxpayer’s sph!ncter.
Moral hazard is so 2008. Now, just call it the Amerikan Way.
grim eats too much kielbasa and tries to sneak in a little quiet rip…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LuGUBPl5z8
Feel the power of methane.
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