From the Washington Post:
Are you not feeling the economic recovery? This could be why.
William Gibson’s observation about the future was a reference to the idea that people have different access to new technology based on wealth and location. That visionary quote kept coming to mind as I have been traveling around the United States to meet with clients this past year. My itinerary gave me a good perspective on the U.S. economic recovery.
Like the future, it, too, is not evenly distributed.
Why is that? The economy is, in a word, “lumpy.” It is strong in some regions, anemic in others. Strength by economic sector varies widely. There are myriad reasons for this: Some parts of the country were much harder hit by the real estate collapse; some sectors naturally rebound more quickly; some innovations lend themselves to more rapid growth.
The kind of recovery that you personally are experiencing is highly dependent upon many factors, but today I want to focus on three: education, market sector and geography. The data suggest these elements matter a great deal. Look closely, and you can see how your personal economic recovery is doing — and why.
Let’s take a closer look at what matters most:
• Education: If there is a single lesson you need to learn from this crash and recovery, it is that education matters a lot. The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes clear the direct correlation between increased education and lower unemployment rates and higher wages.
We have a full year’s worth of data for 2014. Across all workers (over age 25 and working full time), the unemployment rate was 5 percent. For workers who had a high school degree or some college, the unemployment rate was a little higher than average (6 percent); with an associate’s degree, it was a little lower (4.5 percent). Schooling is where we really see a difference: Workers without a high school diploma had an unemployment rate of last year of 9 percent, double the average of workers with an associate’s degree.
Have a bachelor’s degree? Great, your peer group had an unemployment rate of only 3.5 percent. Master’s degree holders saw that fall to 2.8 percent, while doctoral graduates were at only 2.1 percent unemployment. Professional degree holders’ unemployment rate was the lowest at 1.9 percent.
Anyone who believes school doesn’t matter should recognize that enormous unemployment range of 1.9 to 9.0 percent.
If that does not convince, then look at compensation. Weekly wages are very similar in their distribution to unemployment: the average was $839 per week for all workers, but only $488 for those without a high school diploma. Those who held a professional degree averaged more than triple that amount at $1,639 per week. Bachelor’s degree holders averaged more than double at $1,101 per week.
…
New York: Following a huge collapse, there is nothing like a trillion-dollar bailout to jump-start your economic recovery. In the face of an AWOL Congress whose fiscal stimulus was marginal by historical crisis standards, the Federal Reserve became the only game in town. Between TARP, ZIRP and QE, the Big Apple has been the recipient of much taxpayer largesse. Even Fed money that was destined for the rest of the country still passed through NYC. That worked to the advantage of the owner of the corner deli and the Porsche dealer alike.The actions of the Fed not only cushioned the blow from the collapse but set the stage for the next round of expansion. In particular, finance and real estate sectors have been on fire in New York. Note that this is a theme in every city experiencing a boom. There always seem to be at least two hot sectors: (1) real estate and (2) something else. One drives the other.
Frist!
“Anyone who believes school doesn’t matter should recognize that enormous unemployment range of 1.9 to 9.0 percent.”
And when one considers that professionals and Advanced degree holders make far more then the average earlier and certainly a great deal more then low income earners, this is a clear indication of why we have such a high income disparity.
Let’s hope anon retweets something pithy on the need to redistribute degrees.
Earlier=earner. You aren’t paying me to proofread
So what you are saying is that high school dropouts are as much to blame for income equality as greedy CEOs? One controls the top number, and the other controls the bottom? Ergo, the gap?
fifth
Re: Expats renouncing US Citizenship
2) Upon filing for renunciation the IRS will take half of your wealth
If you have a net worth less than $2 million and don’t meet the IRS income test after giving up US citizenship, you automatically owe no exit tax. If your net worth is over $2 million, you are what the IRS calls a “covered expatriate,” meaning you MAY have to pay exit tax. But you also may not, even if your net worth is $200 million or $2 billion.
So how can you tell what you would owe, if anything? You pay exit tax on unrealized gains as of the day before you give up your passport. In other words, it’s as if you sold all your assets the day before you expatriated and paid whatever applicable tax would have been owed (long-term capital gains, ordinary income, etc.). If you own illiquid assets when you expatriate such as private companies or real estate, you’ll need to get a fair market valuation done to determine what, if any, gains you would have had IF they had been sold. Here’s a critical caveat in the calculation: You get a free pass, called the “exclusion amount,” on the first $626,000 in gains. If you’re married and your spouse expatriates with you, the exclusion amount doubles to $1.252 million. For example, you and your spouse could expatriate with a stock portfolio showing $1.2 million in gains and not owe exit tax on it. Even if the portfolio tripled in value shortly after expatriating, you could sell it any time and owe no taxes.
To recap, if upon giving up US citizenship you own assets with unrealized gains of less than $626,000, you will not owe exit tax, no matter how wealthy you are. If you are required to pay tax it’s less tax than you would have paid if you’d stayed in the U.S. and sold the assets. Plus, if any asset you pay exit tax on continues to rise in value post-renunication, all those additional gains are yours.
4) Upon giving up US citizenship you lose your pension, Social Security and Medicare
This is not true. You’re still entitled to these after you expatriate. With Medicare you obviously have to be in the U.S., so this would be limited to visits there.
http://www.expatinfodesk.com/expat-guide/relinquishing-citizenship/renunciating-your-us-passport/misconceptions-about-renunciation-of-a-us-passport/
[2] In this millennium we’ve groomed the population to fully accept the perpetual expense, not costs, of both data and debt, probably to our ultimate detriment. In my mind it’s irresponsible to discuss the advantages of education without discussing the cost of same, especially debt incurred and wages lost while pursuing. Also, the general buckets of “some college”, Associates Degree, Masters Degree, etc. are terrible and misleading aggregates. I’m in full agreement that education is the biggest leg up you’ll ever get in life, but field of study and cost of completion will matter way more in the long than anything else, even trumping choice of school. It’s like agreeing on some maxim, like “Over the course of your life driving a Mercedes-Benz is 40% better than driving a Chevrolet.” If you just blindly agree with that statement and set out to drive nothing but Mercedes automobiles, there are still lots and lots of ways to fail, economically and otherwise. Similarly, you could drive a Chevy all your life and ultimately have a better experience and outcome.
The devil is in the
detailsgeneralizations.that guy, your friend, Jose (?)
he’ll be happy you are sticking around
Marilyn says:
May 16, 2015 at 3:13 pm
Update, Im stuck in NJ. Both parents on both sides literally flipped out when we told them we want to move and put house on market. Well got to wait parents are old, one is 90 and the other 84. Just a few more years. Thanks for all the advise!! Stuck in NJ and retired!!
Back from Europe. Economy is on fire. BOOOOO YAAAAA. Totally different from my trips in 2009-2012. My trips in 2013 and 2014 it was already picking up. But now expense accounts are for spending. Me Like A lot. 2015 Europe is rocking. I drank like a fish and spent like a drunken sailor.
[9] JJ
“I . . . spent like a drunken sailor.”
No doubt, you injected a good deal of spunk into the Amsterdam economy.
[4] grim,
I had a pithy reply but the computer or whatever didn’t let it post. Just disappeared into the ether. Well, I haven’t the time or energy to replicate it. Sorry.
I need my own personal IT guy. I have all kinds of networking issues, from home entertainment to Wifi to home network for computing. And I’m not so tech savvy that I can quickly attend to this. Besides, I am getting buried with paying work (sucks, I know).
If anyone has used a regional or national service that hasn’t sucked, I am interested in hearing more.
I don’t get it, it seems that the phrasing of the “exit tax” is mostly disingenuous.
You need to pay capital gains taxes on your capital gains, just as you otherwise always would have, the only difference is you are paying it when you leave, not when you sell. If you didn’t pay it before you left, there would be no real recourse to collect it when you sell (you aren’t a citizen living here).
Isn’t this the case? I see this same mistake being made all the time with NJ home sellers, poising this as some kind of extra special additional tax, which it ain’t.
[12] I actually *know* how to do all that stuff and still take measures to minimize any time actually doing it at home. The best thing I’ve done is take away all the PC’s from the wife and kids and replace them with Macs and iPads a couple years ago. Home entertainment – My wife and kids don’t even know about streaming to TV or anything like that. On the TV, they can watch it or use the DVR, that’s it. On their devices and iStuff they can watch Netflix, use network apps, I don’t care so long as it doesn’t involve me. Actually, my 11-year old and 13-year old are 1st and 2nd tier support for my wife.
I need my own personal IT guy. I have all kinds of networking issues, from home entertainment to Wifi to home network for computing. And I’m not so tech savvy that I can quickly attend to this. Besides, I am getting buried with paying work (sucks, I know).
I see a future of sky-high taxes and very tall ceilings. Of a chicken in every pot and a pot plant in every planter.
Fat cats would be incarcerated en masse for the criminal possession of money. And thugs who shoot, maim and steal would be reclassified as victims of wage inequality, in need of high-paying jobs, welfare benefits, affordable housing, therapy, hugs or deep-tissue massages.
Cops would replace their badges and aggressive blue uniforms with soothing earth-tone windbreakers and espadrilles, and trade in their guns for thick-skinned yellow fruit.
Bananas don’t kill people. People kill people.
And with burger-flippers taking home a minimum hourly wage of $125, McDonald’s would go out of business. Young people who rely on minimum-wage jobs for a toehold in the workforce would be flung into unemployment lines and onto the streets. No worries. In the new world order, drug-selling would be decriminalized, registered as taxable small businesses in a society in which alarm clocks would cease to be manufactured.
These fantasies are closer to reality than one might think. This could be a rough sketch of the United States of Amerika under the notoriously oversleeping President Bill de Blasio and his hands-on first lady and co-president, Chirlane McCray.
The vice president? Al Sharpton.
The attorney general? Rachel Noerdlinger, McCray’s former chief- of-staff, who bashed the media — which would be outlawed as propaganda is fed directly from the government to the public — for daring to report that she lives with a cop-bashing felon boyfriend and that her teen son was busted for trespassing in a known drug-buying location.
The mayor whose mayoralty’s greatest hit was punishing possessors of small amounts of marijuana not with arrests but summonses has just come home from Bill’s Excellent Adventure. As murders and shootings rise in the city, Hizzoner has hopscotched around the country this spring to preach his vision for a progressive nation — progressivism being a leftist’s term for government encroachment into every nook and cranny of citizens’ lives.
As Post columnist Fredric U. Dicker reported last month, despite denials, de Blasio is positioning himself to be the far-left alternative to Hillary Rodham Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a national party operative.
Can he succeed?
“He spent his honeymoon in Havana. If Hillary falters, he’s seen as a champion of the American left,” a political insider told me.
Political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who advises mostly Democrats but has worked for a few Republicans, told me, “He’s trying to set himself up as the sole gatekeeper and definer of what is progressive and who is progressive. On issues of police conduct, affordable housing and income inequality, he appears to be on the right side of history. [The left side?]
“But is America ready for new redistribution of the wealth?” Sheinkopf asked. “I really have some deep qualms about that.”
Is this country ready for President de Blasio?
Well, I need a vacation. I suppose receiving generous government handouts beats working for a living.
At least, before the United States of de Blasio goes broke.
#13
And the exclusion amount is so large. 99% of expats dont have that kind of gains.
“exclusion amount,” on the first $626,000 in gains. If you’re married and your spouse expatriates with you, the exclusion amount doubles to $1.252 million”
If you are specifically talking about services sold through retail stores, or in partnership with retail stores, you’ll likely be wasting your money.
Ask around and find a nerdy college kid that is willing to do some work for you instead.
Any service that’s going to require you to get support through a 1-800 number is likely to be even more frustrating than you just doing it yourself.
I wholeheartedly second TONJE’s suggestion. Browsing the web? Do it on an iPad, no desktops. Replace all your PCs with Macs. Homework or work is fine on a desktop, do not permit any gaming on a PC unless it’s a dedicated gaming machine that is separate from all the others. Pretty much every gaming PC that belongs to a kid is more infected than JJ in Hanoi – especially kids with Minecraft, god those computers are worse than what you would find in the shadows of a dumpster behind the Javits in the early 80s. In 9 out of 10 of them, buying something online with a credit card will virtually guarantee identify fraud.
Could this be the bill that ends N.J.’s ban on self-serve gas?
A bill to be introduced by a Monmouth County lawmaker could end New Jersey’s decades-long ban on pumping your own gas.
Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon, R-Monmouth, said he plans to introduce a bill to phase in self-serve gas that wouldn’t make motorists go cold turkey if they prefer to have an attendant do it for them.
“I’m amazed at how many folks raise this issue with me. It’s the right thing to do, so we’ll see,” he said of the bill’s chances in a state where some drivers pride themselves on not pumping their own gas.
The bill, announced on Friday, comes after an NJ Advance Media report revealed that no one has been prosecuted for pumping their own gas in the last two years. It also comes as lawmakers in Oregon, the only other state in the nation with a law similar to ours, are considering measures to allow self service in parts of that state.
O’Scanlon said his bill mirrors the provisions in a self service bill introduced by State Senators Gerald Cardinale and Paul Sarlo.
http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2015/05/could_this_be_the_bill_that_ends_njs_ban_on_self-serve_gas.html
18 – in an article on northjersey.com they mentioned that enhanced security protocols from the credit card companies will require that you swipe your own credit card into the pump by 2017…so you will have to get out of the car no matter whether we still have self service or not (unless you pay cash).
[18] FKA,
I always wondered: When those Jersey drivers who pride themselves on not having to pump their own gas drive out of state, what happens?
Do they swallow their pride at the Wawa? Do they stare incredulously at the machine for a long time? Do they use gasbuddy to find full service stations? I really want to know.
I’ve recovered, reaching new highs. MBA, + skill, +Investment industry. Investment industry is hot, due to central planners going out of their way to fluff asset prices worldwide. I do wish there was a will to end the Fed, and end central planning. The world is living on borrowed time supported by monetary alchemy. Being able to clearly see what’s really going on in the world is a benefit in my profession, but emotionally it’s a curse.
#18
We pay one of the lowest price in gas in the country and we force the Gas Stations owners to hire someone to pump that gas. Why eliminate the income of the poor guy?
What else do this lawmakers want to do ,to make hardworking people miserable? They compete factory workers to the 3rd world salary. Now they want to eliminate jobs.
[17] grim,
Pretty much figured. I know to avoid geeksquad, etc.
As for TONJE’s suggestion, largely already there. Only use laptops running windows for work-related stuff. We have an outsourced IT group for work and I find them useless but I didn’t hire them.
I’d like to have a fully integrated home network. Our wifi range sucks. I just bought a new huge tv. We have coax and ethernet running all over the house so it might make sense to have a geek in and see if we can take advantage of it and get us up and running. I can probably figure it out but it is a time=$$ thing.
A dollar spent is somebody’s dollar profit.
Take away that dollar from the hardworking guy and you have a good working economy?
#18..I’d imagine the local corner gas station shuts down or goes credit card only (with the premium fee) as there will be no one to accept cash, make change, etc.
19 – Yep, the PIN part of CHIP and PIN. You’ll need to enter your PIN everywhere. Should be a field day at places like restaurants.
This is being pushed by the folks who want all the gas stations to be attached to convenience stores, that is the money making model.
There’s no (real) purpose for the law yome…it only exists because of corruption. Gas station owners wanted to drive their competition…and its lower prices… out of business by lobbying the legislature to pass a bullsh1t statute.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/will-n-j-gas-pumps-go-do-it-yourself-1.1336652
The legislation introduced by Cardinale and Sarlo would overturn a prohibition that dates to 1949, when gas station owners banded together against maverick Bergen County entrepreneur Irving Reingold, the last station owner to offer self-serve gasoline in New Jersey.
In the 1940s, Reingold’s “Gaseteria” on Route 17 in Paramus offered two-dozen pumps, charged about 18 cents a gallon, and “was wildly successful,” said James Benton, executive director of the New Jersey Petroleum Council.
Reingold’s prices undercut the competition, and rival station owners reacted by persuading state lawmakers to outlaw self-serve, citing public safety as the reason. The state statute reads in part, “Because of the fire hazards directly associated with dispensing fuel, it is in the public interest that gasoline station operators have the control needed over that activity to ensure compliance with appropriate safety procedures.”
Nearly every private gas stations in NJ staffs the pumps with family, or the owners are working themselves, very long hours, without taking hourly payment.
Don’t feel so sorry for the guy pumping your gas, he’s probably a millionaire.
Comrade,
If you need wifi range, the Netgear Nighthawk works pretty well to cover my whole house, and I haven’t had much problem with dropped/dead wifi.
Maybe the Gov of NY is fatter than the Gov of NJ cause in NJ you can just sit in the car eating donuts while some skinny arab pumps your gas. God forbid you get any exercise in NJ
grim,
Don’t feel so sorry for the guy pumping your gas, he’s probably a millionaire.
Please! You kill me sometimes. My family were small business owners for 30 years. The bottom line? If you’re paying you’re bills, you’re making money.
Rags (21)
Appreciate your candor for calling it like it is. It is odd how many people seem to fail to appreciate the impact this has had on real estate.
“Investment industry is hot, due to central planners going out of their way to fluff asset prices worldwide.”
#31…maybe JJ doesn’t remember but NYC had same law as NJ regarding pumping gas. In fact, due to the timing of starting work in NJ while driving from S.I. , I have never pumped gas (outside of vacation/business trips) since I got my license in 1978.
re # 1 9 and # 26 – Nope, Nope and Nope. The Magnetic Stripe won’t be going away as quickly as most people think. New Cards have the Magnetic Stripe and the Chip. But before that it will Chip-and-Signature first, banks are afraid they will lose business if they change the behavior of the American consumer too quickly, and retailers are way behind only 25% of the card readers will be swapped out by the end of this year.
Comrade,
This looks like the current king of wifi range and speed for the home user:
http://www.cnet.com/products/asus-ac2400-rt-ac87u-dual-band-wireless-gigabit-router/
Crap gas station in a decent location will sell for $500k, a good gas station in a good area, more than a million, a big franchise with a convenience store in a good location probably 2 million or more.
Gas Station Sushi mummmm..
Honestly, most of the small gas stations are probably praising this change, since it means the owner isn’t working 19 hours a day.
Have a friend, mechanic, once leased a busy station on busy highway. Owner required gas pumping 24 hr, controlled gas price. He bailed as there was no profit on gas, only headache. He tried to get them to go independent, but they insisted on brand name.
He told me he would have stayed there if the owner would have taken over the gas pumping part of the station.
Had tons of interesting stories of which nationalities/religions were the most persistent in trying to chew you down on price after you gave them an estimate.
Some groups really live up to their stereotypes……
#39
Together with larger profit margins. Family run gas station pumping their own is rare. Is the owners time not worth more than the guy making Minimum? If his son works at the Station,he will still be paying him the minimum wage. Most small gas stations around me were put out of business by a Costco,Walmart or a BJ. This guys make above Minimum Wage. Is it this Large Companies lobbying for this law?
41 – independent owners are lobbying for the law.
The change in the position of the independent gas station owners is the prime mover behind the shift. Their Springfield-based group had long feared that if self-serve pumps were allowed in New Jersey, large oil companies would have the resources to invest in high-volume self-serve stations on the busiest highways and drive the small players out of business. Within the last decade, however, large companies shed most of their stations, saying the profit margin was too low.
http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/05/new_jersey_and_oregon_are_fina.html#comments
Compare Oregon’s headlines to ours.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2015/05/why_nj_could_soon_be_only_state_without_self-serve_gas.html
The defense of full-serve by tying it to employment is idiotic
Please explain
“The defense of full-serve by tying it to employment is idiotic”
And has almost no precedent anywhere, so why exactly are we taking the position on this topic here and now? Why is this Davy Crockett’s last stand exactly?
Nobody fought over ATMs, Kiosks, Vending Machines, Self-Check Out Machines, tablet ordering at restaurants, etc.
But now we have a problem?
I say we ban radios and juke boxes, because they put musicians out of business.
Let’s make all the vending machines illegal too, because they deprive the checkout clerk of a job.
Get rid of EzPass, we need toll collectors back in every lane. Make throwing change or tokens illegal too.
I like my full serve gas and don’t think repealing the law will have much if any effect on the price and frankly in the dead of winter appreciate the fact that I don’t have to get out of the warm car. I don’t think the law will allow for unmanned stations so the employee will still be at the station just not outside pumping your gas.
I think the idea that the law was passed to promote employment was largely urban myth…that perpetuated for so long that it became the truth to many people. When you drive out of state you struggle to find a reason that it is actually “illegal” to pump your own gas in NJ and people invented reasons because they thought…mistakenly, that the NJ state legislature passed laws based on logic and reasoning.
grim says:
May 18, 2015 at 10:17 am
The defense of full-serve by tying it to employment is idiotic
Same as what the business is promising. To keep self serve and attendant lines open. Now banks wants to eliminate tellers or put a surcharge if you use one. But if there were laws to protect the workers this will not happen.
I am against it, but I know robots will be taking the jobs. They are more efficient,cost friendly and larger to the bottom line.
Your customers needs to come from somewhere. Eliminate income and you have no customers.
It was nice to have somebody managing the lines after hurricane Sandy though…things got a bit nuts at some of the pumps after people couldn’t find working gas stations several days in….
49 –
Make all electronic databases illegal. That would single handle solve 99% of America’s privacy, employment, and real-estate problems overnight.
Grim big difference one is automation and the other is self service. When the self services is easier than full service I support the shift(Like for travel, where doing the leg work allows you to see all options and really shop price vs. the old days). Ezpass and vending machines offer better service without a person involved.
Wasn’t there a Freakonomics piece on NJ gas that indicated that having full service attendants was actually counterproductive for jobs, and that the net lost time as a result for the additional waiting needed for attendants added up to significantly more economic losses and waste than were generated by the job itself?
Nobody is saying full serve can’t still be an option, if you want to the full serve, continue to frequent the stations that provide full serve. I am saying I’d rather save the 5 minutes and pump my own gas, and hold my credit card in my own hand. In addition, at 3am in the morning, I’d prefer to actually be able to buy gas, and not go out of my way looking for a major franchise with 24hr service.
In most cases, the same single attendant will still be employed at the gas station, for those who are paying cash or need some other service.
Calling all chefs, butchers, bakers, mechanics and electricians. You are hot on U.S. employer’s hiring lists for the fourth year running.
That’s according to ManpowerGroup’s MAN, +0.02% 2015 Talent Shortage Survey, which reported that vacancies for these skilled trades have been the hardest to fill in the U.S. for the fourth straight year. After that come openings for drivers, teachers, sales representatives and a category that includes secretaries, PAs, receptionists, administrative assistants and office-support staff.
Skilled trade workers were also in top demand across the globe, ManpowerGroup said:
But the U.S. stood out in its obvious need for teachers. In India, teaching was the fourth-ranked most-sought-after category. In South Africa, Spain, Norway and Italy, teachers were also in demand, but further down the ranking, at around the ninth spot.
As this next chart shows, the talent shortage in the U.S. is generally on the wane, while in Asia Pacific, specifically Japan, the search remains tough. Worldwide, the percentage of employers experiencing difficulties filling job vacancies rose to 38% from 36%, reaching the highest level since before the global economic recession began in 2008, according to ManpowerGroup.
Globally, the reasons jobs are not being filled is due to a lack of available applicants, followed by a lack of hard skills, experience and workplace competencies, the report’s authors found. A less pressing reason? Around 13% of employers worldwide say potential workers are asking for too much money, and almost no one is reporting overqualified applicants or reluctance to relocate as an issue.
Saw this on twitter and thought it was interesting. What the h377 is a “conversation pit”? Looking at the first two pics, how do you even get in there?
Google search 1960’s conversation pit…
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=1960's+conversation+pit&gbv=2&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ei=dPhZVZPfBu-HsQT1zYL4DA&ved=0CBQQsAQ&tbm=isch
It’s ironic…as the train deliveries are far more dangerous. At least it’s oil from the Baaken, which is from US soil. If I had to buy oil, I’d rather it be from a US based company than OPEC countries that hate my guts and want to behead me.
“As pipeline opponents gathered in Memorial Park Sunday, they stood across the street from the Bayway Refinery and around the corner from the rail yard where oil deliveries now come by train.”
http://www.nj.com/union/index.ssf/2015/05/pipeline_opponents_rally_in_linden_photos.html#incart_river
Forgot the link sorry…
Lindsey Graham – blech…
59 – Was in a house in Haledon that had a pit like that. It was stuck in the 60s, a lot of bad asian influenced design. I can imagine back to 67 or so, owner wakes up, puts on his karate gi, and practices his nunchuck routine before he gets in his firebird and heads off to work. Pagodas everywhere, including on the velvet and foil wall paper in the toilet (red on silver). Terrible lattice work railing everywhere. Conversation pit with built-in circular couch (probably hosted plenty of key parties too), and an indoor sauna, hot tub room, right off the living room, with double doors to the dining room and living room (pit).
What a player this guy must have been. Who hasn’t wanted to, after eating a satisfying Thanksgiving dinner in the dining room, not wanted to ask their guests to disrobe for a session in the hot tub. Right this way through these doors, I’ll put the Barry White record on the HiFi.
Banks want assurances from U.S. regulators that they will not be barred from certain businesses before agreeing to plead guilty to criminal charges over the manipulation of foreign exchange rates, causing a delay in multibillion-dollar settlements, people familiar with the matter said.
In an unprecedented move, the parent companies or main banking units of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N), Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS.L), Barclays Plc (BARC.L) and UBS Group AG (UBSG.VX) are likely to plead guilty to rigging foreign exchange rates to benefit their transactions.
The banks are also scrambling to line up exemptions or waivers from the Securities and Exchanges Commission and other federal regulators because criminal pleas trigger consequences such as removing the ability to manage retirement plans or raise capital easily.
In the past, waivers have generally been granted without a hitch. However, the practice has become controversial in the past year, particularly at the SEC, where Democratic Commissioner Kara Stein has criticized the agency for rubber stamping requests and being too soft on repeat offenders.
Negotiating some of the waivers among the SEC’s five commissioners could prove challenging because many of these banks have broken criminal or civil laws in the past that triggered the need for waivers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/us-forex-rigging-pleas-idUSKBN0NZ2FZ20150515
You will pay $0.10 per gallon more for credit card, $0.25 per gallon for full service
Nothing skeeves me out more than the hot tub in the master suite, on the carpet. Not like in the bathroom, like in the open. WTF do people think? This is a good idea? Spent too much f*cking time in the Poconos probably.
Or maybe I just need to change around the order of those last words, and it makes more sense..
Plenty of self-serve states have gas prices cheaper than in NJ, why are we assuming prices will go up, and not down?
http://then.gasbuddy.com/GB_Price_List.aspx
Besides, what happens when electrics become more commonplace, and we don’t need gas stations anymore? Maybe we should make Teslas illegal. too.
Before I lived in NJ, I would always buy gas before entering the state to avoid having to talk to an attendant. Now that I’ve lived here for awhile I think it adds a touch of class, and I never get gas on my hands.
Although last year some pump guy didn’t screw in my gas cap properly and the ‘check engine’ light went on shortly after. That seems like a mistake I wouldn’t have made, but hey they’re the professionals.
Banning the oil trains from coming through NJ means our gas prices will skyrocket as a result, we’ll also lose thousands of jobs when the refineries close.
So help me understand this – gas station attendant jobs are good, refinery jobs are bad.
Makes perfect sense – we need to protect the jobs that generate little to no real economic value (and raise the wages of those jobs) – while simultaneously fighting against actual productive labor like manufacturing, whose wages are higher and driven by actual value creation (which NJ is hell bent on destroying).
71 – There were demonstrations against the oil trains this weekend…because they are dangerous. Then there were demonstrations in Linden against the pipeline…which is the alternative to trains…because…well…just because NIMBY.
Again, has anyone here ever heard of the Salvation Army or a Methodist church paying a tenants rent? (if they have an eviction notice).
I find it hard to believe but the lady that told me wife about it is FT landlord and has been for decades.
In such circumstances, governments considering a proposal to build, say, a new highway, should regard this as an ideal time. If the highway will cost $1 billion, last indefinitely with regular maintenance and repairs, and yield projected annual net benefits to society of $20 million, a long-term real interest rate of 3% would make it nonviable: the interest cost would exceed the benefit. But if the long-term real interest rate is 1%, the government should borrow the money and build it. That is just sound investing.
In fact, the 30-year inflation-indexed U.S. government bond yield as of May 4 was only 0.86%, compared with more than 4% in the year 2000. Such rates are similarly low today in many countries.
Our need for better highways cannot have declined; on the contrary, given population growth, the need for investment can only have become more pronounced. So why are we not well into a highway-construction boom?
People’s weak appetite for economic risk may not be the result of pure fear, at least not in the sense of an anxiety like stage fright. It may stem from a perception that others are afraid, or that something is inexplicably wrong with the business environment, or a lack of inspiration (which can help overcome background fears).
It is worth noting that the U.S. experienced its fastest economic growth since 1929 in the 1950s and 1960s, a time of high government expenditure on the Interstate Highway System, which was launched in 1956. As the system was completed, one could cross the country and reach its commercial hubs on high-speed expressways at 75 miles (120 kilometers) an hour.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-need-a-visionary-idea-to-inspire-stronger-growth-2015-05-18?dist=lcountdown
28 – Here is another article on it:
The real reason self-service gas was banned in NJ: Corruption (Mulshine)
“It was Irving Reingold who created the crisis that led to the law banning self-serve gasoline. Reingold, a workaholic who took time out only to fly his collection of World War II fighter planes, started the crisis by doing something gas station owners hated: He lowered prices. Fifty-one years ago, gas was selling at 21.9 cents a gallon. The price was rigged by a gentlemen’s agreement among gas station owners.
“Reingold decided to offer the consumer a choice by opening up a 24-pump gas station on Route 17 in Hackensack. He offered gas at 18.9 cents a gallon. The only requirement was that drivers pump it themselves. They didn’t mind. They lined up for blocks.
“The other gas station operators didn’t like the competition. Someone tried shooting up Reingold’s station. But he installed bulletproof glass, so the retailers looked for a softer target – the Statehouse. The Gasoline Retailers Association prevailed upon its pals in the Legislature to push through a bill banning self-serve gas. The pretext was safety, but the Hackensack fire chief had already told all who would listen that Rein- gold’s operation was perfectly safe.
“The bill sailed through in record time, despite the objections of everyone who cared about the public interest. Journalists howled. “Chalk up another victory for the organized pressure groups,” said WOR radio commentator Lyle Van.
“Prices went back up. Reingold got out of gas and moved on to other endeavors, such as revolutionizing the sport-fishing business in Florida with boats that were bigger and more luxurious than anyone had seen.
“He died two years ago. His daughter Roni told me that on his deathbed he was still angry about the way the politicians ran him out of business. It’s amazing that New Jersey consumers could still be suffering in the Internet era from a crooked deal that went through in the pre-television era.”
And that, boys and girls, is how we got the ban on self-service gas that exists to this day. It’s also why we can’t get rid of it. Then as now, our Legislature is up for sale to the highest bidder.
The public welfare had nothing to do with it. That’s also true of another crooked deal that went through the Legislature in the 1940s. The liquor lobby prevailed upon the politicians they had purchased to enact a statute that prevents towns from creating new licenses. That of course greatly increased the value of the existing licenses, enriching the owners at the expense of the consumers.
But who cares? Not our legislators. They’re bought and paid for by the liquor lobby as well as the gas-station owners.
[41] – yome – If this doesn’t cue a JJ story, I don’t know what does.
Most small gas stations around me were put out of business by a Costco,Walmart or a BJ.
#73-NJT-Salvation Army will typically make a 1 time payment of +/- $500 to keep a tenant from getting evicted. There are multiple religious charities and community development groups that will similarly make small, 1 time payments to keep tenants from getting evicted. I’m yet to see any non-government agency commit to payments over multiple months.
Makes perfect sense – we need to protect the jobs that generate little to no real economic value (and raise the wages of those jobs) – while simultaneously fighting against actual productive labor like manufacturing, whose wages are higher and driven by actual value creation (which NJ is hell bent on destroying).
This is one of the building blocks of the democratic party; crush evil businesses that strive to be profitable and self-sufficient while appearing concerned for the meekly informed muppets in exchange for votes.
Let’s see how much everyone likes self serve when it’s snowing out and the wind chill is below zero.
My recently departed uncle owned a gas station in Oceanside out on the Island. They only pumped gas to drive business into the garage for repairs. Having to pay a person minimum wage to cover the pumps from 6am to 9pm resulted in a net loss. He would frequently complain about it as it was hard to find someone to work that job at such a low wage.
Be careful what you wish for in NJ. I love not having to get out of the car. As for the need to swipe the car, in Europe in restaurants (and in one Citgo station in Union) they have a handheld wireless device you use to swipe and enter your pin. You still get to stay in the car.
Great Neck in the 1970s at one point made full service pumping of gas at Gas Stations illegal. Back then HS Kids and teens pumped gas and late at night thugs from NYC would rob stations a lot and shoot the guy pumping gas. Hess had an exemption for a long time from rule. HS girl at 24 hour dunking donuts near Great Neck got shot in face late at night working alone. Back then in the 1960s-early 1980s the rich jews and arabs owned these places and at night would shove a single minimun wage kid to pump gas or sell donuts, to cheap to pay for a second employee, Crime was a lot higher back around 1973 and kids would get shot all the time. Also no credit cards etc. I recall the kids also did the value drops. My brother used to sometimes at 17 drop off on a busy night at his min wage job 10k t0 40Ka night in a sack of cash by himself at the bank drip. I once did a multi million dollar drop at midnight in college. Back in the day pumping cash pre-credit cards at night was an extemely dangerous job. Large movie theaters back then everyone paid cash and a couple pimply teens at closing was all that was between 50K in cash and a thief getting it.
1987 Condo says:
May 18, 2015 at 9:35 am
#31…maybe JJ doesn’t remember but NYC had same law as NJ regarding pumping gas. In fact, due to the timing of starting work in NJ while driving from S.I. , I have never pumped gas (outside of vacation/business trips) since I got my license in 1978.
79 – You should have bought an EV – you would have been asking, what the hell is a gas station? Once the charge range moves to 200 miles, it’s going to be a no brainer. Single biggest benefit – never having to stop for gas. Once the truck hits a quarter tank, my wife and I fight over the EV, because neither of us want to be bothered to waste the time to get gas.
I never would have considered it to even been an issue previously, thought nothing of it. Now with the truck, it’s obvious what a hassle having to be bothered to tank up is.
#77 – $500 aint gonna do it. I have dealt with private charities that paid FULL rent in the past to get a single mom or dad into a place for a few months.
Thanks.
Grim, hate the NJ State Legislature? There’s a chance to recall the sentate president…they need volunteers to knock on doors in his district (all friendlies…..Republicans) and gather signatures June 27th to have him recalled….Colorado style. Also the people who participated in the Colorado Legislative recalls will be in attendance and will be helping.
https://www.facebook.com/recallsweeney
Recall Sweeney Rally
Saturday, June 27 at 9:00am in EDT
Glassboro, New Jersey
106 people are going
30 posts in one day?
Grim taking over Michael
@b_judah:
In 2006, a total of 54 UK-based billionaires worth £126trillion paid a total of £14.7m in income tax.
No way, businesses would never collude to rig pricing. That whole article highlights how business owners hijacked govt for their own selfish interests, but continue to blame “govt” as if it’s the problem. It’s the greedy individuals that run the business world that ruin govt and society for everyone else.
I will always fight for the consumer and worker!!!! The guys at the top are always scheming ways to take advantage of the worker and co nsumer.
” Fifty-one years ago, gas was selling at 21.9 cents a gallon. The price was rigged by a gentlemen’s agreement among gas station owners.”
I thought you were done posting here Blimpie?
Two a-none tweets and a Blumpkin greed mention.
Three drinks everyone.
The week before and after memorial day are traditionally very slow, we need some action.
I do my part.
[86] Try doing it outdoors, Plumpskin.
I will always fight for the consumer and worker!!!!
Lib, trying hard not to post. Couldn’t resist using that article as evidence with what happens when govt and business come together. Everyone else gets the shaft. Blame govt all you want. Govt can not be corrupt. Only the people running it can.
All this fighting over economic systems leaves out one important point. The economic system will be fine as long as you don’t have corrupt people running it. The most important aspect for any economic system to be successful is based on the following….. you must have honest individuals with good intentions running the show. That’s all that matters. Fighting over the type of system is a waste of time. Corruption will destroy any model.
Politics in the NJ state legislature:
http://www.bobbraunsledger.com/guest-star-ledger-condones-norcross-corruption/
[N0rcr0ss] Philadelphia Magazine called him “The Man Who Destroyed Democracy.”
George Norcross is in a hurry to “transform” himself because his machine is going for the brass ring in 2017 (or before). That’s when his lifelong friend and loyal subject, Senate President Steve Sweeney, runs for governor. And that, as a certain journalist used to say, is the rest of the story.
Bill Winkler lives in New Hope, Pa. He was a Republican staff member of the New Jersey Legislature. The Star-Ledger refused to print this rejoinder to Moran’s column.
Stop the lobbyists and campaign finance and you might actually get an efficient government. Until then, fight the powah.
NJT says:
May 18, 2015 at 11:23 am
Again, has anyone here ever heard of the Salvation Army or a Methodist church paying a tenants rent? (if they have an eviction notice).”
I have seen churches and local housing authority (if well funded) provide gap rental assistance with properties owned in the flyover states. Of course, in those areas religious charity is far more abundant and $500 covers most, if not all, the monthly rent.
A former Las Vegas police captain who resigned rather than be demoted for helping a Guns N’ Roses guitarist use the department’s helicopter for an elaborate wedding proposal is poised to get his job back, have his record cleared and be paid what he would have earned since Dec. 20, 2013, when he left the department.
The ruling from the Local Government Employee-Management Relations Board said the department’s decision to demote O’Leary was politically motivated because of the negative attention the helicopter ride attracted at the same time the department was attempting to lobby for a sales tax increase to pay for additional officers.
http://www.usnews.com/news/offbeat/articles/2015/05/15/captain-gets-job-back-after-rock-star-helicopter-tour
Appreciate the input on tech issues. Just had our IT person remotely work on my firm-issued laptop for about an hour, and at the end, one of the things I really needed, printing locally from documents on our central server, still isn’t working.
If the experts can’t handle this, how can I be expected to?
FEGS does it all the time. FEGS is a Jewish version of Catholic Charities. Red Cross will also do it.
homeboken says:
May 18, 2015 at 12:23 pm
NJT says:
May 18, 2015 at 11:23 am
Again, has anyone here ever heard of the Salvation Army or a Methodist church paying a tenants rent? (if they have an eviction notice).”
I have seen churches and local housing authority (if well funded) provide gap rental assistance with properties owned in the flyover states. Of course, in those areas religious charity is far more abundant and $500 covers most, if not all, the monthly rent.
Comrade 96,
There are very few ‘experts’ in IT anymore and you will almost certainly not have one working on your home tech issue.
JJ,
You are a Wall St guy, No comment on “The Wife Bonus” or your own parameters?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/opinion/sunday/poor-little-rich-women.html?_r=0
This is long, so I will try to post in parts. Rags, hopefully this will show you why you shouldn’t look at the market as a perfect science.
“In this age of popular angst in which our reigning politico-economic system–and the Federal Reserve in particular–is under attack from both the Tea Party on the right and Occupy Wall Street on the left, it is easy to dismiss Professor Keen as just another fringe, anti-establishment doom monger. But Professor Keen is no Johnny-come-lately, and I advise readers to take his words very seriously. While his fiery rhetoric has made him a bit of a black sheep among his peers in the profession, he can rightly call “scoreboard.” He was one of the few professional economists to predict the 2008 meltdown, correctly pointing out the risks of the private-sector debt explosion and sounding the alarms of the disaster to come as early as December 2005. For his efforts, he received the Revere Award from the Real World Economic Review for the being economist “who most cogently warned of the crisis, and whose work is most likely to prevent future crises.” Keen is a man we would all be wise to listen to.
He’s also highly likely to make you uncomfortable, which is a cross that all contrarians bear. As a race, humans crave certainty, and–like a proverbial ostrich with its head buried in the sand–they tend to hide from any evidence that might call that certainty into question.
Economists are no better than the rest of us on this count and might even be worse. Economists (and political scientists too, for that matter) tend to be dogmatic in their views. Like a die-hard Marxist who insists that communism could work “if only it were implemented correctly,” it seems that no amount of evidence to the contrary can convince a neoclassical economist that the market is not always efficient and that instant liquidity is not the solution to every problem.
As Keen writes of his peers,
“I came to the conclusion that the reason [economists] displayed such anti-intellectual, apparently socially destructive, and apparently ideological behavior lay deeper than any superficial pathologies. Instead, the way in which they had been educated had given them the behavioral traits of zealots rather than of dispassionate intellectuals.
“As anyone who has tried to banter with an advocate of some esoteric religion knows, there is no point in trying to debate fundamental beliefs with a zealot.”
For those with only a cursory knowledge of the popular schools of economic thought, let this serve as a crash course:
Neoclassical School: The vast majority of economists, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most policy wonks for both the Republicans and the Democrats, can be loosely classified as “Neoclassical” economists. The Neoclassical School is what you would think of as “mainstream economics.” There is a general belief in the efficiency of markets with a sprinkling of Keynesian ideas about the role of government spending during recessions and Monetarist ideas about the role of the central bank and official interest rates. Where neoclassical economics differ with one another–such as on the proper size of the state, the size of social safety nets, the level of regulation and taxation needed, etc.–they tend to argue at the margins. There is general consensus that, all else equal, markets and trade should be as free as possible, though regulation and fiscal and monetary policy have their respective places. While I consider myself a “free market” guy, I do think it is only prudent to look at the other side of the coin.”
http://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-Dethroned/product-reviews/1848139926/ref=cm_cr_pr_hist_5?ie=UTF8&filterBy=addOneStar&showViewpoints=0&sortBy=helpful&reviewerType=all_reviews&formatType=all_formats&filterByStar=five_star&pageNumber=1
“Neoclassical economics hinges on a few assumptions that any non-ideologue would immediately know where untrue (and which Keen relentlessly critiques throughout the book):
* People act independently and on the basis of full information. (Under this assumption, irrational bubbles would be impossible; how anyone believes this given the recurrence of bubbles in history is a mystery.)
* People have rational preferences that can be quantified (Again, this point is dubious at best. We are humans, not Vulcans.)
* Markets are rational and tend towards equilibrium (which implies that booms and busts are the exception and not the rule.)
* What is true of the individual is true of the group. (Keynes attacked this as the Fallacy of Composition; more on that later.)
While the Neoclassical School’s emphasis on the benefits of trade and free markets is generally spot on, the school clearly has its limitations. Its dogmatic belief in the efficiency of markets is, frankly, ridiculous and flies in the face experience. And again, it suffers from the Fallacy of Composition, which we will discuss shortly.”
“Austrian School: Formerly the domain of gold bugs and various stripes of libertarians, the Austrian School of economics has recently risen to prominence with the popularity of Congressman and perennial presidential candidate Ron Paul. Representative Michele Bachmann also describes herself as an Austrian and claims to read the works of von Mises on her beach vacations. For the literary enthusiasts out there, Ayn Rand, author of The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged could be loosely lumped in with the Austrians, though she was not an economist and had her own school of thought known as Objectivism.
Friedrich von Hayek–who taught for years at my alma mater, the London School of Economics–and Ludwig von Mises were the main proponents for the movement in its early days, which rose in response to the creeping statism that grew out of the Keynesian movement in the years after World War II. The Austrian School objects to the hyper-precision quantification of most modern economic methods, insisting that economics is too complex and too subject to fickle human tastes to be accurately measured. On this count, I would have to agree. Unfortunately, they also tend to have a near obsession with the Federal Reserve and the effects of managed interest rates which Austrians believe inevitably lead to inefficient “mal-investment.” For some of the more puritanical Austrians, the Federal Reserve is not simply an inefficient institution; it’s a source of societal moral rot. (The Austrians seem to ignore that, even under a gold standard, irrational booms and busts were still a fact of life. It appears that the human emotions of greed and fear were concocted in the conference room of the New York Fed by a cabal of sinister bankers.) On balance, the Austrians have an emphasis on limited government and personal freedom which is refreshing and admirable, but they tend to be a little too radical to fully take seriously.
Hard-core Austrians would have been content to let every bank in America fail, even if it meant 50 percent unemployment and conditions worse than the Great Depression, because it would have struck them as being “just.” It’s easy to be a radical when you know there is no possibility that what you advocate will come to pass and that you’ll never have to live with the consequences.”
Keynesian School / Post-Keynesian School: Keen would count himself among the Post-Keynesians. For our purposes here, Keynesians and Post-Keynesians are close enough to be lumped together as one. Keynesianism can be defined more by what it is not than what it is. It is not a dogmatic grand unifying theory. It is more of a hodgepodge of pragmatic adjustments to what Keynes considered shortcomings of a pure market economy.
John Maynard Keynes cobbled together what we now call “Keynesian economics” from what he saw as shortcomings of mainstream economics during the Great Depression. Delving into the arcane, Keynes believed that “Say’s Law,” a tenet of classical economics that claims that supply creates its own demand, was a half-truth at best. Sometimes supply didn’t create its own demand. Sometimes you have overcapacity, falling prices, and weak aggregate demand. Sometimes an economy can settle at an equilibrium far below full capacity. Because of “sticky wages” and “sticky prices,” sometime the unemployment rate can stay uncomfortably high. Sometimes–just sometimes–the real world doesn’t look like an economics text book, and waiting for things to work out in the long-run is not always a viable option. In the long run, we’re all dead.
To smooth over some of the rougher edges of a free-market economy, Keynes argued that the state could be a stabilizing force. One of the more controversial elements of his work was his advocacy for “countercyclical measures.” Keynes argued that governments should run deficits during recessions to spur demand with the understanding that the debts racked up during the hard times would be paid back with surpluses during the good times. Alas, while this sounds great in theory, the always-pragmatic Keynes seemed to have a complete misunderstanding of how real-world politics works. Borrowing money is easy for a politician. Paying back proves to be remarkably hard. (Note: Though he is a “Post-Keynesian” economist, Keen makes it clear that that countercyclical Keynesian deficit spending is not going to fix an economic plagued by debt deflation. More on that to come.)
Governments on both sides of the Atlantic used Keynes work to justify the massive expansion of the state after World War II, and the stagnation that followed led to Keynesian economics falling into disrepute by the late 1970s.
In particular, Keynes tore apart the notion that what is good for the individual is automatically good for the group. This is the Fallacy of Composition and is perhaps best illustrated by Keynes’s Paradox of Thrift. While it is considered responsible behavior for an individual to spend less and save more, if everyone did it at the same time the economy would collapse. Keynes’ disciples, including Steve Keen, have taken this notion further. In Debunking Economics, Keen writes:
“One of the great difficulties in convincing believers that neoclassical economics fundamentally misunderstands capitalism is that, at a superficial level and individual level, it seems to make so much sense. This is one reason for the success of the plethora of books like “The Undercover Economist” and “Freakonomics” that apply economic thinking to everyday and individual issues: at an individual level, the basic concepts of utility maximizing and profit-maximizing behavior seems sound.
“As I explain later, there are flaws with these ideas even at the individual level, but by and large, they have more than a grain of wisdom at this level. Since they seem to make sense of the personal dilemmas we face, it is fairly easy to believe that they make sense at the level of society as well.
“This reason this does not follow is that most economic phenomena at the social level–the level of markets and whole economies rather than individual consumers and producers–are “emergent phenomena”: they occur because of our interactions with each other–which neoclassical economics cannot describe–rather than because of our individual natures, which neoclassical economics seems to describe rather well.
Keynesians, better than neoclassicals, “get” that economics is a social science. It’s a lot closer to psychology than it is to physics. (In this respect, Austrian Economics is also closer to the truth than Neoclassical.)
Neoclassical Economics (and Marxist Economics too, for that matter) focuses almost exclusively on the supply side of the equation. Demand is almost an afterthought, some that just kind of “happens” and doesn’t need to be explained. I consider that a shortcoming and consider Keynes’ workin this respect to be insightful.
Much of Steve Keen’s work in Debunking Economics and elsewhere is an expansion on the work of two prominent Post-Keynesians: Hyman Minsky and Irving Fisher.
Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is brilliant. While Neoclassical Economics insists that market economies naturally tend towards equilibrium, Minsky argues exactly the opposite. Stability begets instability, and vice versa. A long period of stability lulls market participants into a false sense of security and encourages them to take on excessive debts and excessive risks. This inevitably leads to instability and crisis–as it did in 2008–which in turn causes market participants to go too far in the opposite direction, becoming too risk averse. Try to get a mortgage today at a major bank, and you’ll see what I mean. The only way to moderate this never-ending oscillation is to avoid the massive accumulation of debts, which can only be done by strictly regulating the banking system.
The aftermath of excessive debt is, unfortunately, what Irving Fisher called “Debt Deflation.”
Debt deflation is a nightmare. It starts with a debt-fueled boom. When the boom turns to bust, prices fall, which makes the value of the outstanding debt rise in real terms. The more that consumers and businesses cut back their spending to pay back their debts, the more the economy sinks, the further prices fall, and the higher the value of the debt rises. It’s a vicious cycle in which the harder you try to pay off the debts, the more burdensome they become. This is where Greece is today and where the rest of the developed world may soon be going.
Japan is a perfect example of Irving Fisher debt deflation in action, mixed with a fatal dose of bad demographics. The last time prices rose significantly in Japan, Bill Clinton was the Governor of Arkansas. Private debts have inched lower over the past two decades, but government debt has exploded in an attempt to follow the standard Keynesian policy of using government debt to spur demand. Alas, this won’t end well for Japan. (John Mauldin calls Japan “a bug in search of a windshield,” and it is an apt metaphor.)
Overall, Keen has written a comprehensive work that I would recommend for any reader with an interest in economics. Keen is a serious student of the profession, and the proof of his critique of mainstream economics is in the pudding. Keen saw the crisis coming. Neither Bernanke, nor Greenspan, nor any other Neoclassical economist did. That, more than anything I can say, is testament to the importance of Keen’s work.
Gulp….gulp, gulp…..GLUG GLUG GLUG
Barf
Okay, done. Hopefully, people will get something out of this and open their mind to understand that the study of economics has only begun. It’s only in its infancy. Eventually, we will figure out an optimum system that benefits all.
Rags, this is you.
“Hard-core Austrians would have been content to let every bank in America fail, even if it meant 50 percent unemployment and conditions worse than the Great Depression, because it would have struck them as being “just.” It’s easy to be a radical when you know there is no possibility that what you advocate will come to pass and that you’ll never have to live with the consequences.””
To he who has vowed to pack up and leave:
I guess we know how much validity to assign to your promises.
I vow to never actually read a book I think is good, and rely solely on amazon reviews.
Rags is as open minded as Isis
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 18, 2015 at 2:25 pm
This is long, so I will try to post in parts. Rags, hopefully this will show you why you shouldn’t look at the market as a perfect science.
Please keep the laughter down to a minimum, just came across this headline:
Obama calls Camden a ‘symbol of promise for the nation’
He said “The city is on to something”
I think he meant – “the city is on something, as am I.”
I suppose it’s possible that Camden is much improved, while remaining a hellhole.
I just checked – One out of seven Camden high school students are “proficient” in Math and English.
Only 6 of 7 left to improve, unless the rest of NJ runs out of money first.
Who do you actually think writes reviews on economic books? If you don’t think these are scholars obsessed with economics, I don’t know what to tell you. But you are right, some idiot is going to write a book review on an economics book they can’t even understand. I always read reviews before I buy the book. What’s wrong with that?
Rags, I hope I helped opening up your mind. You are older, you should know that anyone who deals with absolutes is usually lost.
joyce says:
May 18, 2015 at 2:50 pm
I vow to never actually read a book I think is good, and rely solely on amazon reviews.
This coming from the master of absolutes.
Idiot,
“But you are right, some idiot is going to write a book review on an economics book they can’t even understand.”
That would be the first time in history someone has ever commented on a subject they’re not well versed in. on the internet no less
“I always read reviews before I buy the book. What’s wrong with that?”
Your skipping the – actually buy the book, read it, like it – parts and posting supportive comments in here. I’m going to read reviews on a new appliance and start telling everyone how great it is… who knows if I’ll ever buy it and use it though. What’s wrong with that?
You are telling me that the review I posted today was done by someone not well versed in economics?
So what is the purpose of book reviews?
joyce says:
May 18, 2015 at 4:24 pm
Idiot,
“But you are right, some idiot is going to write a book review on an economics book they can’t even understand.”
That would be the first time in history someone has ever commented on a subject they’re not well versed in. on the internet no less
“I always read reviews before I buy the book. What’s wrong with that?”
Your skipping the – actually buy the book, read it, like it – parts and posting supportive comments in here. I’m going to read reviews on a new appliance and start telling everyone how great it is… who knows if I’ll ever buy it and use it though. What’s wrong with that?
Just to clarify. Rental assistance is not for ME! I just don’t want to lose a great tenant who might need a little help over a rough spot and I’m not a charity. Hey, I gave at the office.
To help decide whether or not to read the book, NOT to form conclusions about the primary material that the author of the review has ACTUALLY READ (we assume).
Anything else?
[112] grim
Sorry, could not help myself. http://replygif.net/818
[110] joyce,
I wish I stuck to book reviews for Walden and Moby Dick.
19th Century writers never used 5 words when 85 would do.
Yes, does post 102 describe rags to a T? I’m trying to get the people with his mindset to open up their minds. Thought this was an unbiased description of those schools of thought. I can’t get rags to read the book, so is this not an option to get him to understand?
joyce says:
May 18, 2015 at 4:36 pm
To help decide whether or not to read the book, NOT to form conclusions about the primary material that the author of the review has ACTUALLY READ (we assume).
Anything else?
Post 102 tells you that the author of the review attended the London school of economics. I should just let you go on with your snarky remarks and let you think that this was written by someone with no background in economics.
Mrs. Deplume is going to a function tomorrow where Scalia is speaking. So envious.
Stu, gator, expat, I’ll share her selfie if she gets one with Hizzoner
Footrest, anon, small caliber, deal with it.
The problem is liquidity. If the banks were allowed to fail, the Fed still needs to provide liquidity. That will be much larger than what we spent.Today when you sell a stock or bonds you dont need to look for a buyer. The Big Banks provide that. If they were allowed to fail who will buy your stocks or bonds? The Money Market broke the Buck. The Fed came in to guarantee liquidity. The Fed closed the Banks that did not meet Reserves Requirement in orderly fashion. FDIC guaranteed the money in Deposits.
My Question is ; Did the FED really save the Big Banks or The Rich?
“Hard-core Austrians would have been content to let every bank in America fail, even if it meant 50 percent unemployment and conditions worse than the Great Depression, because it would have struck them as being “just.” It’s easy to be a radical when you know there is no possibility that what you advocate will come to pass and that you’ll never have to live with the consequences.””
Grim [26];
Yep, the PIN part of CHIP and PIN. You’ll need to enter your PIN everywhere. Should be a field day at places like restaurants.
At restaurants in Canada the waiter carries a portable card reader to your table. You enter the charge amount, including tip; I didn’t have to enter a pin, but that is easy enough. People up there find it odd that we would hand over our card to waiter who promptly disappears with it, guessing they would order up some Amazon merch while they are gone (?!?).
Even the 3rd World have a better system than we do. Their Cell Phones has a SIM card and can be used to any provider. We give protection to the Big Carrier. Internet is much faster and cheaper. It cost us so much to get 50 megs. Credit Cards swipes are old, businesses dont have the money to upgrade. Infrastructures are new and modern, ours are crumbling. We want to be a 3rd World Country , We are getting there.
“At restaurants in Canada the waiter carries a portable card reader to your table. You enter the charge amount, including tip; I didn’t have to enter a pin, but that is easy enough. People up there find it odd that we would hand over our card to waiter who promptly disappears with it, guessing they would order up some Amazon merch while they are gone (?!?).”
I hope Scalia chokes on his lunch.
Ask Mrs DePlume to ask Tommy “Torquemada” Scalia several questions.
1- Does Torque thinks there are too many catholics in the Supremes?
2-Does Torque thinks there are too few protestants in the Supremes, and does he thinks they are still hell bound heathens?
3-What does Torque thinks of this lefty pinko weirdo Pope, and when does he along, with that catholic league’s David Koresh guy think he will overthrow him?
4-Finally, by when does Torque thinks the new and improved inquisition will start?
[129] not me
I’ll take it up with her as soon as I read it closely.
And I’ll let you know what she says.
Not a lawyer, but I think Scalia & Thomas are just straight-up assclowns.
Scalia seems smart and extremely cynical, and Thomas is just a clueless, self-loathing jerkwad.
I was reading comments after a report on a recent SCOTUS case and I have come to one inescapable conclusion:
We are well and truly fuct. Some of these people shouldn’t be given sharp objects, let alone booze, car keys, or the right to vote.
#8 it was Paco.
Eddie Ray,
Does she get to sit at the back with the rest of the Womenfolk?
I hear he is very charming and witty, its a pity his views are stuck in the 1700’s.
He is so pro Framers and States Rights up to the point it crosses his Religious views.