From HousingWire:
Can this sickly housing recovery survive without artificially low interest rates?
Other metrics in housing may be showing worrying signs of a slowdown, but one thing is evident and that’s housing demand is continuing to strengthen.
That’s a mixed bag.
Granted, people may not have the incomes to keep pace with the outsized (though slowing) pace of home price growth. And credit restrictions are either too tight or too loose, depending on which assumptions you start with.
But demand is strong, and that’s a critical component of the whole supply, demand and price thing that often gets put on the backburner.
Let’s break it down. Total home sales increased to nearly 6 million annualized in June. This was the fastest pace of sales since before the financial crisis and is a clear sign that the housing market is gradually normalizing.
The dark cloud to that silver lining is that the decline in pending sales suggests that existing sales, which make up around 90% of the market, may drop back in the coming months.
…
One big variable is the issue of a pending Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Affordability is still there even with a rate hike, but there’s the problem that the recovery in mortgage lending has stalled.The latest housing affordability reading for May showed the index dropping back to the low end of the post-crisis range, due primarily to the steady rise in home prices. Further declines in affordability seem likely in June and July, as home prices rose further and mortgage rates moved higher.
In the area of price, the CoreLogic index appears to be falling back into line with other measures, which point to annual price growth of roughly 5%.
That’s still not low enough to accommodate the lousy level of job and wage growth that the economy has eked out under the current administration and the hobbling effects of Dodd-Frank, but it does cool concerns that prices were ridiculously out of whack with income. (Now they’re just badly out of whack.)
If you can believe the last two quarters’ GDP — and I can give you a dozen reasons to have doubts (cough, cooking the books) there was modest growth so far in 2015, but tepid is too kind a word. Especially when you look at the quality and types of jobs employers were able to add — part-time, low-wage jobs, with record-low workforce participation.
…
The question becomes can this sickly economy and housing recovery survive without the life-support of artificially low interest rates?That’s the trillion-dollar question, which, considering the level of debt and deficit, is an even more expensive proposition.
Frist…back from Aruba, Aruba is better….
Fo sho!
Bon Bini!
Are prices really “growing” in any part of NJ other than Northeast NJ?
Central, depending on where you draw the line, and Shore for sure.
Should have went to LBI with a bag of money after Sandy.
“Should have went to LBI with a bag of money after Sandy.”
I knew it the moment half of my neighbors went out and bought NG powered generators. People really are idiots. It was a 50 to 100 year storm. Most likely, by the time the next one hits, we’ll all be dead.
Even more amazing I saw undamaged homes on blocks where most homes were damaged selling at a discount.
Near Long Beach days after Sandy and before even FEMA or State announced there would be an aid a pair of young rich wall street guys were down going door to door in Long Beach with their Chase Banker who had a stack of Black Bank Checks and their Lawyer and a large SUV. Hit all the bungalows every day for two weeks asking who has clean title. If you said yes they bought it.
One old guy said he was at his bungalow full of several feet of sand and block was a war zone they came up to him and offered 120K cash on the spot if he had title. He paid 40K way back, house was worth like 400K presandy times. He dug out title, chase paid him the tellers check his lawyer had a contract which he signed and done.
They snatched 10 hours and litterally folks were screaming at them near the end and finally a couple of off duty cops and firemen started chasing them with baseball bats and barely make it out.
But picked up like 10-20 homes for a huge discount. The second homes with no flood insurance of older folks were ripe for the picking.
I noticed a huge spike in VRBO and AirBnB post Sandy as the new owners are about creating value. Old owners would just use it themselves on weekends or let family use it and board it up in winter which is pretty stupid. And folks had leverage issues. The new folks for most part all paid cash. Next Sandy since they got in cheap and no mortgage they wont have to panic sale but will be able to pick up more homes
Libturd in the City says:
August 11, 2015 at 8:53 am
“Should have went to LBI with a bag of money after Sandy.”
I knew it the moment half of my neighbors went out and bought NG powered generators. People really are idiots. It was a 50 to 100 year storm. Most likely, by the time the next one hits, we’ll all be dead.
Sandy was a once in 712 year storm. Which is odds of two fronts passing at same time and making landfall at same time in same spot during high tide on a full moon.
Irene or Gloria were more of a once in 50 year storm.
My house built 1955 and we had Andrew in 1962, Gloria in 1987 and Irene in 2011 and not a drop of water. Sandy just crazy. It was almost like Gloria and Irene on same day which is a menage trois I dont like
WSJ: Oil Futures Signal Weak Prices Could Last Years
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-futures-signal-weak-prices-could-last-years-1439159387
S&P Futures are down 16 pts with Dow Futures down 174 pts
Should be a fun open. PPT
Oil to Gas conversion business RIP
“It was almost like Gloria and Irene on same day which is a menage trois I dont like”
Would you have preferred Floyd join you next time?
Columbia House/BMG filed for bankruptcy. I remember half the guys in my dorm used to do the 10 or so cassettes for a penny deal using a name that was not their own. I used them legitimately. I would buy the one tape over the next month and then would cancel and start over. Did this at least five times.
Blackstone continues to expand in the Real Estate industry.
Blackstone mortgage venture set to become largest nonbank lender?
Finance of America Holdings, a Blackstone (BX) portfolio company, revealed that it snatched up several major lenders, a move likely destined to make it one of the nation’s largest nonbank originators, if all goes as planned.
Blackstone is a full-service, private-equity funded investment bank based out of New York. It recently touted the strength of the housing market and helped make the REO-to-rental market a bona fide asset class. And it’s recent mortgage-lending ventures show a rapid push into the markets, allowable from the deep pockets at Blackstone.
The significant list of acquisitions now includes Gateway Funding Diversified Mortgage Services, Pinnacle Capital Mortgage and certain assets and operations of PMAC Lending Services. Finance of America Holdings also owns Urban Financial of America.
And this probably won’t be the last thing that Finance of America announces. An internal email, shared privately with HousingWire, reveals that Finance of America president Steve McClellan expects to announce more “exciting plans for the future.” This sentiment is no different than the publicly released message from top brass.
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/34729-blackstone-mortgage-venture-set-to-become-largest-nonbank-lender
FKA2010, those Blackstone guys should stick to wall street, they don’t know real estate. I’ve heard of them making some huge mistakes on the commercial side. When experienced real estate guys are asking whose is going to buy this pitiful portfolio at that return, the answer is usually Blackstone.
[15] jcer
They are going all in. They own residential properties and now a lender. Sort of like the builders who also have lending arms. They are some pretty smart guys over there, I’m sure they have a plan.
Tobacco Road (clot Edition):
http://nypost.com/2015/08/11/man-wearing-clown-mask-swung-ax-at-woman-cops/
[1] 1987
Outbound to Maui. With the exception of the Antilla, diving is better there.
No RE related but interesting nevertheless. Is it feasible to simply rent an apt or purchase a condo in a school district where your child could get a better education / sports experience?
Broken State: Transfer students a touchy subject
Ten of Paramus Catholic’s 23 football starters – counting the punter – last October against Don Bosco were transfer students.
Two sat out the NJSIAA-mandated 30 days. Four had a bona fide change of address, making them eligible to play immediately. Two others had not played varsity football as freshmen. And two more had come from schools that did not offer the sport, according to information provided last fall by Paramus Catholic president Jim Vail.
This is high school athletics in 2015.
Of all the issues splitting apart public and non-public programs, transfers are the most complicated. Establishing rules governing student-athletes who transfer from one school to another is difficult. Enforcing those rules is nearly impossible.
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/high-school-sports/boys-basketball/transfer-students-a-touchy-subject-1.1390325
They have money and no place to put it. They view real estate as a fungible commodity like securities without realizing there is multifaceted risk that far different that WS, real estate is not at all standardized, leases, terms, clauses all differ. Smart guys…. I’ll tell you before the crash these idiots bought a commercial building from some real estate guys I know where the seller got to keep the revenue stream for 5 years after the the sale, the tenant went under 3.5 years in their yield was negative they paid 40 million for an asset that they had to re-tenant and cover all of the costs until they could re-tenant that likely wouldn’t pay as good a rent. The story I heard was that the building was probably worth 37m on a good day, these idiots paid 40m and gave up 5 years of revenue for the privilege. They are crooks like everyone else, market manipulators, the name of the game is they monopolize housing in certain markets with their billions and are able to push the needle on prices before dumping their portfolio and making a tidy profit. Lending is profitable right now because of the spread, I hope they choke on the bad loans written on the property they are inflating.
[7] JJ
I’m still mulling the standby generator. If I were in your camp, no, but out here, the big issue is trees and power lines. Doesn’t have to be a hurricane; this area is so sylvan that nearly every power line in the county is susceptible to wind damage. In the two years I’ve been in this house, there were two major outages and upwards of a dozen small ones (excluding brownouts). Also, I work primarily from a home office so it makes more sense for me to have power backups along with other backups.
I considered the transfer switch route but I have concerns about my HVAC system; its quite new and didn’t like the “dirty” generator power I tried to feed it last year with a pigtail. I’ve also got other load considerations–water and septic pumps, for example.
Friend who is a commercial electrician (and a Generac dealer) is going to give me a load assessment so I know I won’t get bullshiite. It’s important too; he told one client they needed a rather large standby to power their geothermal system (these are popular out here) so they said no. Another electrician, who doesn’t do this routinely, sold them a much smaller standard residential model. Come the first power failure, the geothermal requires too much load so the standby trips and they have no power.
1/1/15 to 8/9/15 (IRR)
Nationwide Investment Club 18.7%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) 3.4%
Mad Loot Investment Club 5.4%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) 3.4%
Google makes up 6% of Mad Loot portfolio, so we should be moving up a few percentage points versus the benchmarks as the day goes on.
[20] jcer
Need to put that money to work, guess they are ok with losing a little.
“load assessment”
He He
No RE related but interesting nevertheless. Is it feasible to simply rent an apt or purchase a condo in a school district where your child could get a better education / sports experience?
There is a house in Basking Ridge that four asian families got together and bought. They set up desks in the home. The kids take the bus there after school, go into the house, do school work. Then, their parents pick them up and they go to their real home for a late dinner. No one actually lives in the house though.
“I do whine because I want to win and I’m not happy about not winning,” Trump said on CNN’s “New Day” on Tuesday. “And I am a whiner and I keep whining and whining until I win.”
No wonder he’s leading. He is the personification of the New America.
[25] ben,
From what I understand, this is endemic and better districts now employ investigators to root them out.
In DC many years ago, investigators busted dozens of people who drove their kids in from just outside the district. Just how bad those local schools were that the District was desirable, I don’t wanna know.
27 – They are paying taxes, their parents own the house, it’s not like this is some kind of illegal arrangement like using someone else’s address, or using grandma’s address. They have title, they pay property taxes.
Besides, if Basking Ridge kicked them out, their SAT rankings would fall.
28 – Nevermind, found the document, pretty clearly spells out it’s the domiciled residence that determines eligibility.
Now if the house fronted as a black market dry cleaner or massage parlor, that would really be the shiznit.
29 – It would contribute to overcrowding if many families report their address as a shared single family home, would it not?
Jets Jets Jets!
Usually the administration doesn’t care. Especially with straight A students. It’s the busy body’s in the neighborhood that cause the trouble. A while back, my sister was living with my grandparents in Bergenfield so she could go to school their. My parents owned the house and payed the taxes. We found out through the grapevine one of her friends moms reported her to the school and we had to present the tax bill to them. Needless to say, it was pretty awkward whenever we ran into her again.
Give her the Gino Smith treatment next time you see her.
#30..yeah, otherwise I guess 20 families could all buy one house and pay 1/20th RE tax to send all their kids…..
You want me to throw a football 10 yards out of her reach?
booya…
http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/13416881/geno-smith-new-york-jets-6-10-weeks-broken-jaw
The Jets never disappoint in August.
http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2015/08/04/Woman-110-drank-three-Miller-High-Lifes-a-day-for-70-years/3181438715372/?spt=sec&or=on
New Jersey women who just turned 110 – secret to Health a lot f Miller Beers and a shot of whiskey every day. Love it.
Now open for business
http://shop.donaldjtrump.com/
God bless America
Did he design those logos and build the website himself? Good lord.
re # 40- My wife’s grandma passed away last year at 103 years old. Every day she had a Canadian Club and tonic around 6 PM, same drink she started with since the days of Prohibition.
JJ: Do you think the FireIdzik guys crowdsourced the money to pay Enemkpali?
76,650 miller beers followed up by 25,550 JW blue shots is all you need to live to 110
This is only part one of plan, part two is to get the Pats to sign him so he can punch Brady.
Mike Vick just shot a load in his shorts waiting for home phone to ring
Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:
August 11, 2015 at 2:42 pm
JJ: Do you think the FireIdzik guys crowdsourced the money to pay Enemkpali?
My mother’s father was an Ironworker (they erect the steel skeletons for skyscrapers). Guy smoked two packs of cigs. and drank a case of beer and three shots of whiskey everyday. Also ate every fatty food imaginable. At 69 he could kick my ass (I was 25 and recently out of the military). Union made him retire at 70. He died of a heart attack a year later.
My father’s mother was eligible for sainthood. She went to church everyday didn’t drink, smoke, worked out and avoided all ‘unhealthy’ foods. Died at 68 from cancer.
An uncle drank a pint of Applejack everyday until he offed himself at 99.
His last words (the last time I saw him): “I’ve outlived everyone I ever knew, except you kid”.
NJT did you know Laird’s in Colts Neck is going to open a drinking room at some point soon? They just redid most of the runoff ponds and wastewater treatment….
http://www.lairdandcompany.com/pdf/appleproducts/2005-Laird%20apple%20products%20sell%20sheet.pdf
NJT says:
August 11, 2015 at 2:52 pm
My mother’s father was an Ironworker (they erect the steel skeletons for skyscrapers). Guy smoked two packs of cigs. and drank a case of beer and three shots of whiskey everyday. Also ate every fatty food imaginable. At 69 he could kick my ass (I was 25 and recently out of the military). Union made him retire at 70. He died of a heart attack a year later.
My father’s mother was eligible for sainthood. She went to church everyday didn’t drink, smoke, worked out and avoided all ‘unhealthy’ foods. Died at 68 from cancer.
An uncle drank a pint of Applejack everyday until he offed himself at 99.
His last words (the last time I saw him): “I’ve outlived everyone I ever knew, except you kid”.
Grim 30 – Definitely domicile and not merely ownership. When we bought our house in GR, we considered moving mid-school year so we could start collecting more rent from our multi. We didn’t want to move Lil Gator mid-year, so we had our realtor make an inquiry on our behalf regarding district policy. We were told that the day we moved out of the house – no matter how late in the school year – Lil Gator would no longer be able to attend Montclair public schools. We didn’t even have the option of paying tuition to keep him there for the remainder of the school year.
We contemplated moving and not saying anything, and just driving Lil Gator to his bus stop since we weren’t flipping a deed, but we decided that wasn’t a good idea when Lil Gator told his Kindergarten teacher that he was moving to his new house before we even got out of attorney review.
In retrospect we should have just rolled the dice and stayed. The CO staff member who is in charge of investigating residency complaints is the same woman who couldn’t review class lists 2 years ago after the lottery and notice that Watchung school had at least 10 too many kids enrolled. She didn’t vet the lists before sending the letters out to parents, so the incoming K classes that year at Watchung had almost 30 kids/class. This being Montclair and all, no one had the balls to correct the mistake and move 10 kids with no older siblings at the school to another school in the district.
Stay classy, Montclair…
FYI:
Nishuane Pool will be closed today, Wednesday and Thursday due to vandalism. Last night vandals threw 50 chairs, 10 umbrellas and stands, several umbrella bases, and several hoses and buckets into the pool. In addition, the handicap pool lift was destroyed.
Nishuane Pool will re-open Friday, August 14.
JJ:
https://twitter.com/Felonious_munk/status/631179200318169088/photo/1
also
Sources say Geno Smith threw the first punch but it was a couple yards short
Maybe Frank Gifford can donate a Jaw to Geno
Someone should have noticed this before it was released.
http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/08/flood_advisory_for_parts_of_nj_this_morning.html
If there ever was a good time for Geno Smith to play with fireworks, now is that time.
Does JJ work for Accuweather now?
Gator,
That’s such delightfully diverse behavior.
I seen Geno play a few games and I have never seen any fireworks, but I felt like punching him in the jaw
Lib,
Hilarious. Made me think of greatest media slip up of all time. Still can’t believe this one made it to air
https://youtu.be/L1JYHNX8pdo
#52
No, he threw the first punch, it was intercepted and returned for a score.
That said it’s the first time in a long time that a Jet has managed to hit a QB
[60] Rory Martin
For once, I like something you wrote.
It still probably works better than the obamacare website.
Grim says:
August 11, 2015 at 2:33 pm
Did he design those logos and build the website himself? Good lord.
Not PC but I will say it anyway
Indian giver?
“The city of Ferguson, Missouri, is being forced by the Obama administration to return two military vehicles that it obtained from the Pentagon, amid widespread concern and criticism over the deployment on American streets of equipment intended for war zones.
The US Department of Defense will reclaim a pair of Humvees that were given to the beleaguered St Louis suburb under a controversial program to distribute surplus weapons, vehicles and other gear, according to several government officials involved in the process.”
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/11/ferguson-protests-police-militarization-humveeshttp://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/11/ferguson-protests-police-militarization-humvees
Juice [63];
I’ve got little use for the present administration, but this is a good move. Militarization of the police is perilous; our founders knew the dangers of domestic standing armies.
My friend’s father is ex-NYPD — taught at the academy; also a Vietnam vet. He’s said that as he got father away from both experiences, his time on the force most resembled his time in Vietnam. He attributes the police fear of the public to when police stopped walking a beat, being among and knowing the community, and started patrolling in cruisers. Riding in APC is just an extension of that troubling trend.
Where do I sign up for the trump campaign?
So much for Hillary
64
Moose,
Does he ever talk about …
At what point in time did things change and allow those in the profession to react with overwhelming force at the slight hint of risk, real or perceived?
#65 Grim
I thought you were automatically enrolled after you finished your Real Estate course at Trump U!
Mass considers The Snowflake Workplace Protection Act
https://malegislature.gov/Bills/189/House/H1771