From the Record:
Home prices in NYC region rise, but slowly
Home prices in the region continue to rise, but at the slowest pace in the nation, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday.
Values rose 1.7 percent in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, in the 12 months ending in August, the index reported. That compares with an overall increase of 5.1 percent for Case-Shiller’s 20-city index.
Property values in the area haven’t rebounded as fast from the housing crash as in other parts of the country, in part because they didn’t fall as far during the downturn. In addition, New Jersey is still dealing with the after-effects of the foreclosure crisis, because it was slower to deal with distressed homes than many other states.
David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the increase in national home prices reflects moderate economic growth.
“Other housing data, including sales of existing single family homes, measures of housing affordability, and permits for new construction also point to a reasonably healthy housing market,” he said.
Home prices in the region are still equal to the level reached a dozen years ago, in late 2004, while national prices have recovered to the levels of mid-2005. Prices in the region remain about 14 percent below their peaks in mid-2006, while national prices, as measured by a 20-city index, are about 7 percent below those peaks.
Case-Shiller does not break out home prices by county. But according to the New Jersey Realtors, single-family home prices ticked down in both counties in August from the previous year, dropping 1.6 percent in Bergen County, to a median $490,000, and dipping 0.2 percent in Passaic, to a median $310,000.
Good Morning New Jersey
Hey Mike
Who gets up this early?
NY Metro Condos at all time high
S&P CS for NYXRC came in at an astounding 269.46. This is 16.4% HIGHER than the highest point during the bubble (February 2006 – Seasonally Adjusted).
To put this in context, this is 40.9% higher than the trough, set in February of 2012 (also a comparison on the seasonally adjusted numbers).
However, you need to consider that a significant amount of this upward growth is NYC itself. The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index is a kind of donut, that excludes most of NYC, as it only counts detached single family residences. The condo index, however, covers the whole region.
Happy Hump Day Funnel
McDullard or whatever your handle is these days, happy birthday!
Grim, thanks for pointing out the condo performance. Blitzer, the S&P index data boss, has said a “substantial number” of sales going into the condo data are outside New York City and added the condo data doesn’t count coops. You are correct it is a regional number though concentrated in closer-in areas. What is interesting is condo and house prices moved in tandem through 2006 then in the past 10 years diverged sharply. Same trend is being seen in Boston and San Francisco regions. Makes me concerned about the New York City suburbs – something is going badly wrong if real estate values remain depressed.
Will home prices in Cumberland and Sussex counties return to 2006 peak by 2025, or are prices in nonstop decline until they hit Mississippi and West Virginia levels?
The data does not count coops, however realize that the bulk of NYC (including BRK) development in the past decade has been condos. While there is a large amount of related condo development in NJ, it’s focused on that near NYC market. Just scanning the news flow over the past 5 years, the anecdotal stories of hot condo markets are firmly centered on NYC, and not any number of NJ quasi-urbanized suburban centers.
Condos, can’t miss…oh…my handle…nevermind…
Where’s Cumberland? That’s a county?
Comrade
So your a crack of noon guy huh? By 630 am I’ve completed a 60 mile trek and have been in the office for an hour,
Got lost in Cumberland co. Some years back thought we were in Kentucky!
Comrade
it’s almost lunch time
Grim
You will end up in the cranberry bogs of Cumberland county if you head due west out of Atlantic city or from Trump’s Taj Mahal just face north and turn left
Polls on this day in 1980
http://m.lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2012-09-20/gallop-poll-jimmy-carter-47-ronald-reagan-39#
NYC Condos – My Wall Street friends cannot even afford them now. In Manhattan, 30% to 40% of all condo buyers are now estimated to be foreigners.
NYC market and surrounding is still very hot, tight inventory, high prices. The suburban market is dead…dead…dead. The inventory is weak but even still the prices seem to be softening in all but the most premier markets in NYC metro. I think we may already be seeing the recovery deflating in the suburbs. If we see a market crash or recession there will be real weakness in the suburban housing markets around NYC.
Funneloud
Urrah!
Seriously, I don’t care. Besides, working in BIGLAW killed my sleep habits. Lots of all nighters. I used to come into work between 10 and 11 am because I would typically not get home before 10 -12 pm. That became a habit that persists to this day.
Hope there is drop in the suburban market, but doubt it happens. There is not enough capital on the demand side to lead to substantial price gains in the suburban market, but there is more than enough capital on the demand side to maintain current prices or drive them up by a few percentage pts this year. If prices did drop 10-20%, every investor in the country will move in to take advantage. I’ll be right there battling them for those discounts, rent them out, and then sell when the price appreciates in time. With the property producing income, I can wait till whenever for the price appreciation to come back.
A house that has been for sale across the street from me for a couple years is currently under contract. They are asking 1.375 with 30,000 in taxes.
jcer says:
October 26, 2016 at 10:18 am
NYC market and surrounding is still very hot, tight inventory, high prices. The suburban market is dead…dead…dead. The inventory is weak but even still the prices seem to be softening in all but the most premier markets in NYC metro. I think we may already be seeing the recovery deflating in the suburbs. If we see a market crash or recession there will be real weakness in the suburban housing markets around NYC.
Casting Bridgegate: The Movie
http://www.nj.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2016/10/bridgegate_the_movie_casting_nj_scandal_as_a_tv_fi.html#0
Calling all moms of Grayson and Ellery. My most disturbing find on the internet in a good long time. I think they would sell great at the Montklair Pop Up.
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The cows are pissed….
I first met kids from Cumberland County my freshman year at Rutgers, we had a couple on our dorm floor. They were nice guys, but Wow! I could tell from talking to them that it was a whole different world. There was a kid from Pennsville named Glenn who had an ex-girlfriend from the same town on the second floor of the same dorm, both 18 year old freshmen. Glenn was blonde-haired, good looking weight-lifter who was all of about 5’3″, maybe 115 pounds. He looked like a miniature California surfer dude, except he had an accent that did sound like it came from somewhere way South of the Mason-Dixon line. Glenn also used to wear this blue and white varsity jacket. He was a wrestler in HS, but the jacket wasn’t from his HS. On the back where the HS name would usually go across the shoulders in an arc, his jacket said “Knights of De Molay”. Glenn quietly told me once that it was something like the KKK. Glenn’s ex-girfriend already had a child at home, but the father wasn’t Glenn, it was the boyfriend before him, which just blew my 17 year old mind (I skipped 6th grade so I was a year younger than everyone else). Glenn’s roommate was named Art and he was a Jew from Bloomfield. Glenn had never met a Jew before and Art used to pull his dark curly dark hair back to show Glenn he had no horns. Glenn seemed confused for many months over whether Judaism was a race, religion, or both. Her certainly didn’t expect the first Jewish guy he met to be 8 inches taller than him, look like a “regular” white guy, and be a good basketball player. Glenn and Art actually ended up being great friends. Glenn failed out of RU after his freshman year, but I think that might have been one of the most enlightening years he ever experienced. Another guy on my floor, my friend Keith, was a Jewish kid from Bridgeton (the local pharmacist’s son), also in Cumberland County. I distinctly remember him whispering to me once, “Pennsville is a really redneck town.” Ironically, Bridgeton would later become an Abbot District.
ExPat,
Did Glenn have that South East PA/Delaware accent?
Nom – There is something very wrong going on in the outer suburbs of NJ. Morris County, where I’m from looks atrocious and 30 year made some mention of same with regard to nice house his group bought that wasn’t selling recently, right? My MIL’s house in Blairstown (Warren County) is on 10 house dead end cul-de-sac with underground utilities, all the houses built by the same builder in 1986-87. Typical house on the block is 4000 square feet, 3 car garage, 4-5BR, 3.5 bath on 2 acres (half lawn, half wooded behind) with taxes around $10K. The builders house is an outlier at 7,000 square feet, but Zillow has all the other houses at $350K-$450K. My in-laws bought their house (one of the 3 on the cul-de-sac, actually a circle with a landscaped mini park in the middle of the circle) in 1994 for $375K, Zillow has it at $440K right now. There is something really wrong going on in the suburbs is how I see it.
Makes me concerned about the New York City suburbs – something is going badly wrong if real estate values remain depressed.
Yeppir.
ExPat,
Did Glenn have that South East PA/Delaware accent?
Ex Pat,
What do you mean by really wrong? Houses overpriced, not selling?
NJ Gator….so stunningly good…..
Half right. Houses underpriced and not selling.
Ex Pat,
What do you mean by really wrong? Houses overpriced, not selling
Or maybe over-taxed and not selling?
ChiFi [10:50];
Casting Bridgegate: The Movie
How about this: Protesters Disrupt Traffic [read as, block all lanes upper level inbound –AEM] On George Washington Bridge, Cause Major Delays
I fully expect 6 weeks of wall-to-wall coverage by Rachel Maddow. No? I wonder why not? O_o
ExPat.
Had a friend from Pompton Lakes with an almost identical story, though a little less redneck and way more Jack & Diane. I had to suffer through my Sophomore year listening to endless stories of football championships (yes…he had the varsity jacket too) and antics at the Pompton Queen. Wish both of my EOF roommates (was in a triple) from the prior year hadn’t failed out. Their ghetto lives made for much better late night conversation. Plus, they were never in the room except to bust a nut.
Oprah’s endorsement of Hillary: “You don’t have to like her. She not coming over to your house.”
https://twitter.com/GerrenPeterson/status/790216729473511424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
This house sold for 551,000 in what I would call true suburban location. Stop acting like the sky is falling in the suburbs. 4 beds 2 baths 1980 sq ft. Taxes 13,000. Why did it sell for 30,000 more than asking price? Crazy since the suburbs are supposedly dead.
People need to realize that if your home is in good condition, it will sell fast. If your home hasn’t been updated since 1990, don’t expect to get top dollar. Lower your price to include the needed updates, and your home will sell.
Blairstown is not the suburbs, Blairstown is the sticks. It’s a beautiful area, but lets not depict Blairstown as the burbs.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/39793600_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/40.963731,-74.262442,40.961746,-74.265875_rect/17_zm/
To me Wayne is the sticks.
I went to sleepaway camp in Blairstown as a kid. Didn’t realize there were homes there. :P
The market in places like Franklin Lakes is soft, that isn’t a good indicator of things to come……..
jcer,
The market in places like Franklin Lakes is soft, that isn’t a good indicator of things to come……..
You mean we’re not prestigious anymore?
If this was 20 years ago and there were no cameras and surveillance, there is no question that people would have just driven through them…….these drivers were such pussies that Trump tried to grab them……..
Anon E. Moose, saying ‘Come back, JJ’ says:
October 26, 2016 at 1:30 pm
ChiFi [10:50];
Casting Bridgegate: The Movie
How about this: Protesters Disrupt Traffic [read as, block all lanes upper level inbound –AEM] On George Washington Bridge, Cause Major Delays
I fully expect 6 weeks of wall-to-wall coverage by Rachel Maddow. No? I wonder why not? O_o
These protester idiots have no idea how bad they fcuked up….the GWB is a PA bridge…two states governors are going to make sure these guys have the book thrown at them as an example…….
Lost: Good God! Can you finally admit you are pumpkin!!
Or his brother.
Turnip? Squash?
Freemasonry yes that’s right your “Knights of De Moley is just an order of the free masons .One of the requirements for membership is the belief in a Supreme Being. Members include Christians, Jews, Mormons, Hindus, Buddhists, Muslims and others
Rutabaga? Parsnip?
Wrong. The traffic out front must be lowering your IQ (and it obviously didn’t start from an elevated level). A home will sell fast if it is priced below market, provided there actually is a market. With $5 you can buy the tax liabilities on 5 houses in Detroit.
People need to realize that if your home is in good condition, it will sell fast.
My own anecdata — places like Bernardsville, very slow….nice places sitting for a long time. As you move farther from that NYC Nexus you are seeing less demand. Leisure class shrinking? Moving to BKLYN?
Nom, Thanks.
I am a “flee?” now. Started off new handle to scope out plans to flee US if Trump wins (sell house and get citizenship papers so I can leave US for extended period without any trouble — if I do it on a GC, it will be a disaster, all the way back to a H1B to get back to US).
I left the handle as is because I am entertaining dreams about fleeing to Silicon Valley if there is some chance (not a chance as of now; it looks like I’d need to drain all savings and retirement accounts to get a semi-reasonable house in CA).
Flee, no one really flees because a president changes. People say it but never do. And those that do, don’t advertise.
Even if Trump were elected, little would change. Our system is designed to moderate sudden,,dramatic shifts. People afraid of Trump needn’t be because he’ be a eunuch.
Time and time again I read and hear the Left talk about how the election will be fraught with violence from the Right if Trump loses. I keep telling them they are full of krapola. Honestly, between the BLM tards, uppity DNC operatives and now this guy who took a pick axe to Trump’s star on the Hollywood walk of fame, I think it might be the other way around.
I’m telling you Trump hurt himself by trying to recycle all of these imbeciles. Gingrich included….Yeah, he writes books, but he’s a complete scumbag. He’d have been better off using people from the Corporate world. Oh yeah, I forgot, he’s not corporate. His is a family business based on nepotism. He’s Toast. He can take Christie with him to hell.
GO CUbbbbies.
There is an old saying (with apologies to Ben) “those who can’t do, teach”.
Are used to follow that with “those who can’t teach, administer” but I think it needs to be revised now.
“those who can’t teach, go into journalism”
Grim gets the gold star for identifying a Philadelphia bar from a picture that Gator took of steamturd and me.
Really quite impressed, sir.
I love parsnip! I hate pumpkin!!
Nom, I was creating a plan-B (or plan-Z). It is a no where near “leaving soon”. As an unexpected side effect, my wife and I started discussing about going to CA — we never even entertained the possibility before, but now there is some traction. Of course, there is always a possibility that if we ever get an opportunity to go to CA and do go there, we may regret the move too. May be mid-life crisis for me already :)
Thanks for providing low price.