From CNBC:
Homeowners twice as house rich as five years ago
America’s housing market is heating up again, fortifying the finances of current homeowners and frustrating potential first-time buyers.
After hitting bottom in 2012, home prices took off dramatically before leveling off a bit in mid-2014. In the last two months, though, they turned higher again. The amount of equity homeowners now have — the value outside their mortgage debt — has doubled in the last five years, according to CoreLogic.
The latest read on September home prices showed a 6.3 percent annual gain, a touch bigger than August and a clear sign that prices are heating up again after cooling through much of spring and summer.
“Home-equity wealth has doubled during the last five years to $13 trillion, largely because of the recovery in home prices,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Nationwide during the past year, the average gain in housing wealth was about $11,000 per homeowner, but with wide geographic variation.”
All real estate is local, and while most states show gains in home values, the variance is wide. Connecticut and Alaska are the only states seeing annual price declines. For Connecticut, it is jobs plain and simple. The loss of major employers there, like General Electric’s decision to move its headquarters to Boston, have hit the housing market hard.
Other states, like Arkansas, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Maine and Maryland, are barely in the black. On the flip side, as tech companies flee California, nearby states like Washington and Oregon are seeing double-digit home price gains, with Colorado and Utah not far behind.
Homeowners today show more wealth on paper, but they are not extracting it at nearly the rate they did during the last housing boom. Near-record-low mortgage rates have certainly prompted thousands of borrowers to refinance and lower their monthly payments, but a very small share have extracted cash in these refinances and home equity lines of credit (HELOC).
We’re in the money, we’re in the money;
We’ve got a lot of what it takes to get along!
We’re in the money, that sky is sunny,
Old Man Depression you are through, you done us wrong.
We never see a headline about breadlines today.
And when we see the landlord we can look that guy right in the eye
We’re in the money, come on, my honey,
Let’s lend it, spend it, send it rolling along!
Oh, yes we’re in the money, you bet we’re in the money,
We’ve got a lot of what it takes to get along!
Let’s go we’re in the money, Look up the skies are sunny,
Old Man Depression you are through, you done us wrong.
We never see a headline about breadlines today.
And when we see the landlord we can look that guy right in the eye
We’re in the money, come on, my honey,
Let’s lend it, spend it, send it rolling along!
Please forward this article to buyers in my local market. They don’t seem to have received the message.
Oh…I see
“Other states, like Arkansas, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Maine and Maryland, are barely in the black.”
Has Obama scheduled the press conference to talk about the assassination of two Iowa police officers?
Quelle surprise. The quarterly expat report that was due 10/31 is late.
I’m shocked, shocked ….
Can’t wait to see Babs, Cher, etc. on a future report.
He might have scheduled one, as the suspect is white. We need some new “common sense” gun laws, after all.
Has Obama scheduled the press conference to talk about the assassination of two Iowa police officers?
I wonder if Clinton, now under great pressure, will consolidate her plan for America:
“He grabs Russian puss-ies! Him and Putin, that’s what they do all day long, grabbin’, grabbin’, grabbin’ puss-y instead of releasing their tax returns! He hasn’t paid taxes in 20 years on all the puss-y he’s been grabbin’! Why aren’t I ahead by fifty points, you may ask? Right?”
In case you missed it, It’s not Russians, it the counter-coup by US intelligence:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov5kvWSz5LM
Expat,
Money trumps politics. Tina Turner and Denise Rich (Marc Rich’s wife) were on prior reports
This whole Trump-Russia link is such absolute nonsense.
Perhaps the DNC should release “genetic evidence” that Trump is a direct descendant of Hitler.
I applaud the creativity in attempting to deflect.
But this seems like something right out of the movie “Our brand is crisis”
And again I assert. The Russians had nothing to do with the Wikileaks dumps.
No self-respecting Russian hacker is going to be proxying out of an IP anywhere near Eastern Europe. They would be bouncing off of a string of proxies around the world, and most likely attacking from US-based machines, especially since most US IT security teams worth their salt area already specifically monitoring for IP traffic originating outside of the US. They would bounce through so many different jurisdictions that it would be nearly impossible to know where the attack came from.
Although, someone wanting to make it appear that way, would certainly proxy through a breached machine in the region.
Flee?,
I have no experience in selling a house, so I can’t make a strong case…
Omg! And you have the audacity to begin a debate on real estate? I’ve owned three houses over the last 22 years and have come out WAY ahead on every sale! Are you kidding me? You just dismissed yourself astoundingly!
All real estate is local. How much is south and west jersey bringing down the gains made in northeast jersey? Also, based on this list below, I would think Maryland and New Jersey have nothing in common with these other states. Maryland and New Jersey are highly developed, and their pricing is based on old housing stock, not new home pricing, like the less developed states.
How much does old housing impact avg housing price? New homes in nj go for significantly more, but there are barely any new single family homes going up like other states. How come this is never brought up in the discussion/comparison of avg sales price between states?
D-FENS says:
November 2, 2016 at 8:04 am
Oh…I see
“Other states, like Arkansas, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Maine and Maryland, are barely in the black.”
Because the point of the article is to garner clicks, not provide nuanced analysis.
“How much does old housing impact avg housing price? New homes in nj go for significantly more, but there are barely any new single family homes going up like other states. How come this is never brought up in the discussion/comparison of avg sales price between states?”
Now it’s reported that W will be voting for Hillary. That’s awesome.
The Hillary Alliance:
Koch Brothers
Wall Street
W
Cheney
Neocons(Chertoff, etc.)
Imbiciles(anon, etc.)
Great coalition she put together there.
If by “coming out way ahead” you mean you’re a giant miserable fvck who spends all day blaming all his problems on other people, then yes, you win.
Fast Eddie says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:00 am
Flee?,
I have no experience in selling a house, so I can’t make a strong case…
Omg! And you have the audacity to begin a debate on real estate? I’ve owned three houses over the last 22 years and have come out WAY ahead on every sale! Are you kidding me? You just dismissed yourself astoundingly!
You’ve been outplayed by a girl.
nwnj3 says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:20 am
Now it’s reported that W will be voting for Hillary. That’s awesome.
The Hillary Alliance:
Koch Brothers
Wall Street
W
Cheney
Neocons(Chertoff, etc.)
Imbiciles(anon, etc.)
Great coalition she put together there.
If by “coming out way ahead” you mean you’re a giant miserable fvck who spends all day blaming all his problems on other people, then yes, you win.
Look in the mirror sweetheart.
I have a conference call and webex now… some of us have to support the layabouts.
all in NJ and one always bigger than the other.
while bashing NJ and home ownership on a daily basis
typical Alt-right
Fast Eddie says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:00 am
Flee?,
I’ve owned three houses over the last 22 years
So why isn’t every Republican voting for hillary? All the top republican players jumped ship. I thought Koch brothers and wall st have it all right according to republicans I have spoken to over the years that defended them to no end. This is like the twilight zone, and explains all you need to know about politics……people just pick a team and argue/defend their said team to no end. Now Republicans are putting down wall st and the Koch brothers while democrats embrace the people they hated. Can’t make this stuff up.
nwnj3 says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:20 am
Now it’s reported that W will be voting for Hillary. That’s awesome.
The Hillary Alliance:
Koch Brothers
Wall Street
W
Cheney
Neocons(Chertoff, etc.)
Imbiciles(anon, etc.)
Great coalition she put together there.
If I had a lot of money I’d vote Hillary too.
Eddie, you come out way ahead on RE sales on nominal terms over 22 years on all of THREE sales, and you think you are an RE expert (even when you were forecasting an RE crash as recently as a couple of years ago)? Do you also believe that you are a financial genius because your 401k went up a lot in the last 22 years?
NJ Expat also seems to believe he is an RE expert because his financial plan seems to be to day-trade his primary residence!
So far no RE experts have actually weighed in. While I can’t believe how Grim can be silent on an argument about merits of a strategy to sell a home, but can pontificate on Russians and hacking footprints without access to any logs, or on the motives of a police shoot-out, I understand that partisan hackery and dog-whistles can be addictive.
The most important financial advice from wealthy people on this board seems to be to rush and save a couple of bucks on gas! This board has “jumped the shark”.
See you next Wednesday when Eddie laments about how a woman can be a president (homage to his post about how a “Hussein” can be a president so soon after 9/11).
Nj has been good to this guy, but all he does is bash it. Wish he took a hair cut on selling his home like he wanted everyone else to do for him.
Grab them by the puzzy (the good one) says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:39 am
all in NJ and one always bigger than the other.
while bashing NJ and home ownership on a daily basis
typical Alt-right
Fast Eddie says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:00 am
Flee?,
I’ve owned three houses over the last 22 years
Eddie, please tone down your self-righteous “only I pay taxes” crap. I doubt you are even that rich or pay huge taxes when you keep posting about how you are forced to move from one temp job to another.
Just because some other people downplay their income or wealth doesn’t mean that you are subsidizing them! May be they are subsidizing you (bonus: if you ever took UI payments and turn around pretending to be the one bearing the world’s tax burden).
Ottoman…your thoughts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1L1gNUPbTw
From the Record:
Haier America to move most operations out of Wayne; 97 jobs will be lost
Haier America, part of a China-based company that is the world’s largest appliances manufacturer, apparently is moving most of its operations out of its headquarters in Wayne by the end of the year, according to local officials and a notice to the state Department of Labor.
The company told Wayne officials months ago that it plans to move out of its headquarters on Valley Road as it consolidates its business operations in Kentucky and merges with the appliance division of General Electric, Mayor Chris Vergano said Tuesday night.
Haier said in a notice last month to the state Department of Labor that 97 jobs will be lost in Wayne. The company purchased GE Appliances for $5.6 billion in June and recently told NJBIZ.com that it plans to combine the two companies’ operations in Louisville, Ky., where GE is based.
Kim Freeman, a company spokeswoman, told NJBIZ that a portion of Haier America’s digital living business will continue to be operated out of the Wayne facility. She said that 80 employees will be impacted by the move. The report said the affected workers were in sales, marketing, accounting, customer service, logistic operations, information technology, human resources and the legal department.
I can’t believe the Chinese paid 5.6 billion for that white elephant of a business…..
There is no exact science to pricing a house. So many different variables come into play, so it’s hard to weigh in on this subject with a definitive answer. Don’t know what Fast Eddie sold it for, or the details of the home.
In truth, pricing has a lot to do with psychology of the market, if people feel the next couple years will see a rise in price, then they are willing to push the market up, if they feel doom is on the horizon, they will want a discount to protect them from future losses.
Fast eddie may have priced his home right, and if the offer was what he wanted, then it’s the right price. No point in waiting, otherwise, you risk losing a buyer and screwing yourself. Remember each location has a certain amount of buyers. Top locations have lots of buyers which drives the price up, undesirable locations have a limited pool of buyers which drives the price down. In some cases, if someone really loves your location, you can try to squeeze some more out of them, but you have to be sure that they love it.
“So far no RE experts have actually weighed in.”
The phrase “dog whistle” is now in black list.
It’s fucking idiotic. You can’t even watch the news anymore without all those idiots babbling on about dog whistles for hours on end. Stupid media buzz-word that isn’t even an accurate analogy. It’s an easy tell to identify a media lap dog, ha ha.
Eddie’s sale was absolutely solid, nothing was left on the table. In fact, if he had delayed until today, it would have only been an increase of 3-5% on the sale, which would have been absolutely lost on the purchase, which would have likely seen a larger upward delta.
My “team” is the United States. Open borders is bad for my team. Lobbyists and donors are bad for my team. Career politicians who never held a real job, made payroll, or managed anything, are bad for my team. Moronic trade deals that reward companies for sending factories and jobs out of the country are bad for my team. Politicians that subvert the Federal Records Act and Freedom of Information requests are bad for my team. Hillary is bad for my team.
“people just pick a team and argue/defend their said team to no end.”
Why can’t other news outlets report this issue as clearly?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=gM_YsZHxWrk
Fleabag – if you call holding 15 years day trading. Moron.
NJ Expat also seems to believe he is an RE expert because his financial plan seems to be to day-trade his primary residence!
When are you running? Got my vote.
Tywin says:
November 2, 2016 at 11:07 am
My “team” is the United States. Open borders is bad for my team. Lobbyists and donors are bad for my team. Career politicians who never held a real job, made payroll, or managed anything, are bad for my team. Moronic trade deals that reward companies for sending factories and jobs out of the country are bad for my team. Politicians that subvert the Federal Records Act and Freedom of Information requests are bad for my team. Hillary is bad for my team.
“people just pick a team and argue/defend their said team to no end.”
Do you also believe that you are a financial genius because your 401k went up a lot in the last 22 years?
Actually, pretty close. I did my homework. I would say because of my asset allocation in my 401K and individual investments, the dividends are nice supplements. Since I’m still working, I intend to keep letting the gains reinvest.
First, Grim is spot on with “If I had a lot of money I’d vote Hillary too.” The rich don’t care which party they vote for. They simply vote in their best interests. Many switch with nearly every election. I know my wealthy brother does.
On to the real estate talk. RE is a terrible investment. We’ve gone over this a million times. Developers do well. Handy people can make a nice living with a few investment properties and mainly through depreciation and other tax advantages. But trying to time RE is like trying to time an investment in precious metals. Even if you nail the top on the sale of your primary residence, you need to rent waiting for the next bottom to gain anything from it. Moving is incredibly disruptive. RE really is a sucky investment for the average individual. And judging by how frequently people move, you are better off renting in most situations.
Back to this election sh1t show. I thought the options were bad 6 months ago. The last month revealed our options to be much, much worse. Can’t wait to listen to Hillary’s womens liberation acceptance speech. I hope she discusses her husbands improprieties during that speech. It’s crazy. In 2008, Obama had a mandate and completely squandered any chance to affect change with the porkulous. Hillary will start her term trying to avoid jail time.
I doubt you are even that rich or pay huge taxes when you keep posting about how you are forced to move from one temp job to another.
Why don’t you post under your original handle?
Eddie’s sale was absolutely solid, nothing was left on the table.
Any questions?
Slowly losing faith in free market policy. Think of it as more of a utopia. I know in theory it makes a hell of a lot of sense, but can this theory be applied to real life? Will we ever truly see free market conditions? Is it even possible? Anyone care to share their opinion?
Fast: what is his/her s original handle? Is is pumpkin? I get confused with flee and lost.
Where you sit is where you stand.
lost says:
November 2, 2016 at 11:50 am
Slowly losing faith in free market policy. Think of it as more of a utopia. I know in theory it makes a hell of a lot of sense, but can this theory be applied to real life? Will we ever truly see free market conditions? Is it even possible? Anyone care to share their opinion?
I mean really? Koch brothers endorsing HRC?
What does that tell you?
Lost is Pumpkin. Or simply an imitator. The writing style is a little different, but the content is identical.
Flee could be any number of cheerleaders here.
3b,
I don’t want to speculate but it’s someone who has obviously been following the blog for a substantial period of time.
Sanders was badmouthing them on Twitter just a few days ago. What exactly is the message from the left?
Grim says:
November 2, 2016 at 11:57 am
I mean really? Koch brothers endorsing HRC?
What does that tell you?
The Koch Brothers were enemy number one of the left for pretty much the past three years. Smart for their endorsement. They get the left off their backs, special favor and treatment from Cankles and now it’s acceptable for them to buy elections.
Agree with almost everything you say here, except for the investment properties. If done right, meaning bought at reasonable cost to income ratio, this is a guaranteed wealth builder over time. It’s a headache to be a landlord, but it is highly lucrative if done right. Get 4-5 rental properties, and you don’t have to worry about money or retirement ever again. It’s obviously not as easy as it sounds, but it’s not rocket science, and it is achievable for the avg individual. Just like some people fail in business, some fail as a landlord, but it is a great way to build wealth.
“On to the real estate talk. RE is a terrible investment. We’ve gone over this a million times. Developers do well. Handy people can make a nice living with a few investment properties and mainly through depreciation and other tax advantages. But trying to time RE is like trying to time an investment in precious metals. Even if you nail the top on the sale of your primary residence, you need to rent waiting for the next bottom to gain anything from it. Moving is incredibly disruptive. RE really is a sucky investment for the average individual. And judging by how frequently people move, you are better off renting in most situations.”
“Get 4-5 rental properties, and you don’t have to worry about money or retirement ever again.”
Sounds so easy. It helps to have generous grandparents, no?
Hillary’s secret FB group “National Pantsuit Day -Nov 8th” has only grown to 300k members as of today, the word is not getting out there should be 10s of millions of members by now.
Here is the election as I see it:
Republican- HRC
3rd Party- Trump
Democrat- Not running
Koch Bros are crony capitalists just like Warren Buffet and the Silicon Valley billionaires. They wouldn’t be throwing all that money around unless it’s buying them the ability to preserve their prominence via access and power.
Pope throws Jesus under the bus!
Grim I have some friends who are Hillary supporters that have revealed themselves to be so dumb with some of their Facebook comments that I am have really lost all respect. First there’s the whole “it’s the Russians hacking” stuff and now I actually saw one of them saying Hillary will nominate Supreme Court justices who’ll overturn Citizen’s United. Really? A woman who owes he entire career and family wealth to campaign money and the ensuing corruption and impropriety is going to nominate somebody who will end that. Really?
Like I said before, I can understand somebody voting for Hillary if they perceive Trump to be a worse evil but the fact that people by the political talking point boggles my mind.
I just offer up $1,000 to the DNC if she does a single thing to curtail Wall Street greed. It always shuts them up.
It’s not easy, but it is a wealth builder. Grandparents? How about generous parents? That definitely helps, ask trump.
Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary’s umbilical stump says:
November 2, 2016 at 12:17 pm
“Get 4-5 rental properties, and you don’t have to worry about money or retirement ever again.”
Sounds so easy. It helps to have generous grandparents, no?
Footrest:
” you’re a giant miserable fvck who spends all day blaming all his problems on other people”
And the textbook says:
“Projection is a form of defense in which unwanted feelings are displaced onto another person, where they then appear as a threat from the external world. A common form of projection occurs when an individual, threatened by his own angry feelings, accuses another of harbouring hostile thoughts.”
You should seek help. I recommend a strong tea made from the berries of the Nightshade plant, consumed copiously for as long as possible. Or if you really want to channel your inner philosopher, some hemlock, also consumed copiously. Feel free to add sugar to help with taste.
My predicament is balancing Trump’s buffoonery versus the known quantity of corruption and status quo that Cankle represents. Part of me wants to see Trump’s foibles. But at the same time, I really worry about his complete lack of diplomacy, ignorance of fact and how dangerous this could be when managing both foreign and domestic affairs. I absolutely detest Hillary and the status quo of the continued decay of our country. But a slow decay is probably still better than the risk that Trump represents. And this is why ultimately, Cankles will win. Just as the Trumpets can see Trump’s grandstanding and threats of walls for what they are. The majority will look past the Clintons continued lack of ethics and abuse of power as less dangerous.
Trump is a completely unknown quantity. Hillary is completely known.
If you are managing a few billion dollars in investments, who do you vote for?
A true lesser of two evils, where both sides truly are evil.
Grim,
Consider who will be the more restrained after the election. Clinton, with possibly the Senate and channeling Obama’s disregard for constitutional limits on the executive versus Trump, who will inherit a dubious and potentially hostile Congress regardless of whether the Reps or Dems retain both houses.
Putting aside the reactions by those institutions that perceive future disruption, I think that Trump represents the LESS disruptive political force insofar as he will be less able to push through a radical agenda, will be restrained in his ability to appoint radical judges, and will be forced by both hard and soft barriers to conform his style and substance to that which reflects a true middle-of-the-road pragmatist. Clinton will be under some of those constraints as well but nowhere near the extent of Trump.
Steam,
” But a slow decay is probably still better than the risk that Trump represents.”
I disagree with two of your premises: first, I think that the decay you speak of will accelerate under Clinton; there may be some initial bump from perception or stimulus but the fundamental structures will erode faster. Second, you perceive more risk than I think is possible; I think that Trump will be the more handcuffed in a presidency than Clinton.
Trump can be handcuffed by congress, but his big mouth can’t be handcuffed by anyone. We can only hope that other world leaders don’t react irrationally to his ludicrous outbursts.
Because you can’t shoot them . . .
http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/10/31/donald-trump-sign-wars-moos-pkg-erin.cnn
Evan Nappen recommended getting some sort of skunk scent or oil and painting it on the signs; it would stink up the offenders’ hands and trunks for days.
Steam,
They will politely ignore him. And it won’t take long before the true PTB b1tchslap him into shutting the fcuk up. Even he of his enormous ego would see the writing on the wall and respond. It’s happened before, it will happen again (in theory, since he isn’t getting elected).
En Fuego!!!!
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/adp-private-companies-jobs-oct-2016.html
I’m so glad I don’t have to wrestle with this moral dilemma you guys seem to have. I know exactly who I’ll vote for…
This post is spot on. Think it hits the nail on the head.
Human nature=self preservation.
Grim says:
November 2, 2016 at 1:27 pm
Trump is a completely unknown quantity. Hillary is completely known.
If you are managing a few billion dollars in investments, who do you vote for?
Trump jawboning would make Greenspan look like a rookie.
Trump wins? Long VIX.
Too bad it’s like Greenspan on angel dust.
Steam I was pretty sure lost was pumpkin but sometimes flee sounds like lost who is pumpkin. As far as real estate not that I follow that closely any more since we don’t plan on buying in nj. We took the money and ran. But more than a few houses in my way over rated blue ribbony town with asking and sales priced around 2004 levels. So people sucking wind if they bought back then. Virtually no appreciation. Also saw a few that sold for 80 to 100k less than what they paid for it. Then throw in 12 to 15k a year in property taxes. No thanks real estate ain’t what it used to be.
I’m leaning more and more towards a no vote on question 2 (gas tax “lockbox”).
It seems to be a stealth way of getting voter approval (which is required by law) to borrow 12 Billion dollars.
Voting no blows up the whole 23 cent gas tax bill.
The 12 billion can be spent anywhere they want…..not just on transportation.
Looks like they figured out how to plug that gaping budget hole.
It will make Phil Murphy look like a financial wizard…like he somehow magically fixed NJ’s budget woes.
3B,
Yeah. Property taxes (to pay for oversized/overcompensated services) has truly killed the golden goose. Gone are the days of tripling your money. My parents paid $125K for my childhood home in East Brunswick and sold it for $300K 15 years later. We are talking 1975 to 1990. My neighbors next to my multi in Montclair paid $79,000 for their place in the mid 90s and it’s now worth about $550K 20 years later. Looking at my current homes. I paid $480K for my Montclair home in 2004 and 12 years later its worth about $550K (not to mention the near 100K I sunk into it in maintenance). Then there’s my current absolute steal bought at the absolute bottom in 2012. Got it for $423K and it’s probably worth about $600K (but sunk 50K in improvements into it). To match my parents RE investment, my primary house, which I timed the purchase of perfectly, would have to be worth 1,015K in 2027. To meet the appreciation of my neighbors house in Montclair, it would have to be worth 2,945K (yup 3 million) in 2032. Add in the insanity of current double dip supporting 100K kindergarten teacher-making, Cadillac insurance receiving public employees supporting property taxes to the mix and there’s no way it’s happening again. No way, no how. Real estate is a rich man’s game now. Only developers get to play.
3b,
Flee isn’t pumps
All they need is tax haven status and they are all set.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/the-rich-have-found-a-place-to-escape-the-horrors-of-the-world
Back in the mid-90s, when I was a manager in a trust company, I had only a few clients, who were HNW, high profile families. One of them was the family behind a then Fortune 500 company. At lunch one time, the couple who took the lead on family matters told me about some of their holdings, which can only be described as nompounds. This family trust held land in remote parts of the West, and a large working farm (or station) in New Zealand. They made no secret of the fact that these were lifeboat properties in the event of a zombie apocalypse.
When TSHTF, the roar of outbound jets from Morristown and Teterboro will be deafening.
Steam all true. Friends and family who pooh poohed that we sold and rented thought we were stupid. The plan was to buy back something smaller when the bubble burst. After a few years renting and the fed putting a floor on prices by super low rates we did not in my opinion get the correction we should have. Couple that with ever increasing taxes in a town I believe that is in decline. And we just said no thanks. We also know a few people who are finding out that their fantasy price in their mind is about 100k or more away from reality and well they are not happy. So for us no to another real estate purchase in New Jersey. One final thought if rates ever go up to around 7 percent again it will be ugly for people who purchased in the last few years.
Title post;
After hitting bottom in 2012…
NAILED IT! Just sayin’…
I am down to 10 years on both mortgages. I just received my two annual escrow adjustments from Chase on my two mortgages. Last year I opted to just pay the difference in one check rather than spread it out over the 12 monthly payments. I did that again this year. So each year, I can now keep track of the increase in my property taxes (and to a much, much smaller extent, my hazard insurance). In two years, on my multi I am up $950. In Glen Ridge $500. Keep in mind, my taxes in Glen Ridge started about $2,000 more than in Montclair.
Exactly right. The Democrat party is the same as the UK Conservative party. Trump is like UKIP, and there is nothing to the left like Sanders would have been which would have matched up with far left parties in Europe. In addition, there isn’t any overseas analog for the “traditional” Paul Ryan type conservatives Republicans.
Here is the election as I see it:
Republican- HRC
3rd Party- Trump
Democrat- Not running
^^^ In other words, there is nothing any further Right than HRC’s Democrat party in Western Civilization outside the USA.
World leaders are already observing Clinton and Obama’s public accusations they are hacking our computers, and trying to influence the US election.
Foreign governments have also given tens of millions to Hillary’s “Clinton Foundation” (where 5% goes the the actual “charity” recipients, and the rest of the cash goes to “management expenses”).
“We can only hope that other world leaders don’t react irrationally to his ludicrous outbursts.”
The Clinton Foundation sucks, but more than 5% of the donations go to causes outside of managing the fund. Sometimes, the right can be downright idiotic.
Wrong, quite the opposite. Rates go up to 7% and the prices will rise dramatically. 7% rates mean the economy is back to normal, which means back to growth and inflation. Not happening yet, but it’s coming whether you think so or not.
“One final thought if rates ever go up to around 7 percent again it will be ugly for people who purchased in the last few years.”
3b…. you also could have bought into places like hoboken or ridgewood instead of renting, and made a good return. Stating that nj is dead and there are no gains being made is clearly just generalizing and not looking at the whole picture.
completely specious argument……
lost says:
November 2, 2016 at 5:48 pm
Wrong, quite the opposite. Rates go up to 7% and the prices will rise dramatically. 7% rates mean the economy is back to normal, which means back to growth and inflation. Not happening yet, but it’s coming whether you think so or not.
“One final thought if rates ever go up to around 7 percent again it will be ugly for people who purchased in the last few years.”
Lost/ pumpkin you are still ever the fool! The economy would probably have to be the best ever in the history of this country. Absolutely on fire if you think that a 500k house purchased today will not feel the impact of a 7 percent mortgage rate in a few years. Prices go down fool! No control on rates no control on property taxes. That leaves prices. As far as Hoboken ridgewood blah blah nice return blah blah. No thanks don’t need to have my money tied up in a house in ridgewood or the millenials playground in Hoboken. You just can’t stomach the fact that renting works for a lot of people. And by the way I have owned 2 houses in the past so I am not a bitter wanna be home owner. It’s overrated in many respects and even more so in New Jersey.
Property taxes didn’t kill it, other factors are at play. Look at the time periods you are comparing. Did any of those periods have a bust comparable to 2008? This was a huge bust that takes a long time to fix and move on from. We still haven’t totally absorbed that bust, almost there, but not there yet.
Did any of those periods have to deal with a period of stagflation bordering on deflation? How can you have huge gains across the board in real estate (meaning all real estate, not select locations) with no inflation? You get the gist of what I’m trying to say?
I’ll address your pricing examples in the next post.
Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary’s umbilical stump says:
November 2, 2016 at 3:21 pm
3B,
Yeah. Property taxes (to pay for oversized/overcompensated services) has truly killed the golden goose. Gone are the days of tripling your money. My parents paid $125K for my childhood home in East Brunswick and sold it for $300K 15 years later. We are talking 1975 to 1990. My neighbors next to my multi in Montclair paid $79,000 for their place in the mid 90s and it’s now worth about $550K 20 years later. Looking at my current homes. I paid $480K for my Montclair home in 2004 and 12 years later its worth about $550K (not to mention the near 100K I sunk into it in maintenance). Then there’s my current absolute steal bought at the absolute bottom in 2012. Got it for $423K and it’s probably worth about $600K (but sunk 50K in improvements into it). To match my parents RE investment, my primary house, which I timed the purchase of perfectly, would have to be worth 1,015K in 2027. To meet the appreciation of my neighbors house in Montclair, it would have to be worth 2,945K (yup 3 million) in 2032. Add in the insanity of current double dip supporting 100K kindergarten teacher-making, Cadillac insurance receiving public employees supporting property taxes to the mix and there’s no way it’s happening again. No way, no how. Real estate is a rich man’s game now. Only developers get to play.
How do you know that your primary home won’t be worth 1 million in 2027? If real estate hits another bubble in the 2020’s( and it should based on current fundamentals and demographics at play, along with the fact that we have been battling the 2008 bust and will soon be over it) why shouldn’t your home hit 1 million in 11 years? If we get economic growth and inflation that raises prices 10% a year starting in 2020 through 2027, why shouldn’t your home be a million or more?
“To match my parents RE investment, my primary house, which I timed the purchase of perfectly, would have to be worth 1,015K in 2027. To meet the appreciation of my neighbors house in Montclair, it would have to be worth 2,945K (yup 3 million) in 2032”
How so? If we get to 7% mortgage rates, that means the economy is booming. So you are telling me that the price of homes will come down under a hot economy?
Just because higher rates increase the cost, doesn’t mean they always result in lower pricing.
If I’m wrong, just explain how I’m wrong. I’m always looking to improve, and will appreciate it.
chicagofinance says:
November 2, 2016 at 5:55 pm
completely specious argument……
3b, I wasn’t bashing your position of renting. You made the statement below, in which you say no to housing in nj based on people losing money or not being able to get the price they wanted. I was simply pointing out to you that not all nj real estate is a losing proposition like you assume. That’s all I was doing.
“We also know a few people who are finding out that their fantasy price in their mind is about 100k or more away from reality and well they are not happy. So for us no to another real estate purchase in New Jersey. “
D-fens not correct
Lost surely you understand that you can have high rates in a a crappy economy ! Right? You do understand that. Right?
3b, I call BS on your “first offer is the best offer” rule. Tell me whether this scenario meets your rule:
“… I had a buyer, they froze and ran, then I had a second buyer who was in AR and we thought that was a done deal only to have a third buyer swoop in and kill the second buyer who we originally dumped for the first buyer and then subsequently dumped a second time for the third buyer who went considerably above asking…”
Lost/ pumpkin I believe real estate in general as far as buying the traditional single family home is today a losing proposition in New Jersey for a multitude of reasons discussed on this blog. pumpkin if you are happy with your purchase than that’s all that matters. No need to justify it to me.
Flee let me restate what I said to make it clear to you. And I have sold 2 houses in the past. In general your first real bonafide offer is generally your best offer. Is that cleate now for you?? And just a little advice try not to be so thick!
My current escrow (tax/insurance) is 17,500. That takes a huge bite out of that 575k profit. That’s pretty much half of it. Sh1tty investment.
Lost property taxes are a huge killer for real estate as an investment. If you can’t see that well that’s simply because you need to justify your high taxes. We have had this discussion multiple times when you were the poster formerly known as pumpkin. If your happy with your high taxes pay them! You are trying to convince yourself not me.
Lost/ pumpkin stu is smart enough to realize that his house nice as it might he and in a prestigious town will in all probability not be worth one million dollars in 2027. Your fundamentals are b.s.
People who don’t compare their investment returns to benchmarks always think their investment is the best.
I understand it’s buried in the gas tax/TTF bill that just passed. Not in the ballot question. Or am I just brainwashed by Bill Spadea?
Grim says:
November 2, 2016 at 6:52 pm
D-fens not correct
Pick any random fifteen year time period ever. Compare taxable stock market INDEX returns to average housing returns. In nearly every single scenario, your index investement will have outperformed housing at a rate of about 2.5 to 1. That difference is way more than any amount of rent you could ever want to pay.
You guys know that the gas tax is a percentage. Not a flat rate. This way, when gas goes up in price (and it will), the government’s take increases as well. It’s good to be the king.
Yes, but based on the current factors at play in the economy, a 7% rate will mean we are in a good economy again. It’s not going to go up to 7% on a bad economy. Not happening in the current situation.
3b says:
November 2, 2016 at 7:24 pm
Lost surely you understand that you can have high rates in a a crappy economy ! Right? You do understand that. Right?
Lost/ pumpkin like I said you can have high interest rates in a bad economy. I won’t reason with you any more. You should however stop v torturing yourself you bought you say your happy fine. Stop trying to convince others.
I agree to disagree. If it’s a losing proposition, shouldn’t prices be crashing? Who wants to buy a losing proposition? So I think you are looking at it all wrong. If you think this many people are just dumb, then think again.
“I believe real estate in general as far as buying the traditional single family home is today a losing proposition in New Jersey”
What the? I’m not trying to convince anyone on the basis of self preservation. I’m trying to convince you that you are looking at this all wrong. That’s it. If you think I’m wrong and you are right, so be it. Not going to waste my time trying to reason with you and show you what you are missing.
3b says:
November 2, 2016 at 8:38 pm
Lost/ pumpkin like I said you can have high interest rates in a bad economy. I won’t reason with you any more. You should however stop v torturing yourself you bought you say your happy fine. Stop trying to convince others.
The 12 billion borrowed does not have to be spent on transportation. Bonds must be approved by the voters.
The Assembly voted for the Transportation Trust Fund plan, the Senate voted for the Transportation Trust Fund plan, and Gov. Chris Christie signed it into law.
But a key portion can’t take effect without one final approval from New Jersey voters.
Seemingly innocuous Ballot Question No. 2 has emerged as an unlikely flashpoint among those angry that the gas tax is going up Tuesday by 22.6 cents a gallon. The question asks voters to guarantee that all gas tax revenues go into the TTF, rather than into the general state budget.
Left unsaid is that $12 billion in borrowing over the next eight years depends on it. The section of the TTF refinancing legislation that permits the state to issue up to $12 billion in transportation program bonds through 2024 takes effect on the day the constitutional amendment is approved.
If it’s not approved, where does that leave things? In limbo.
“Well, obviously we would have to then regroup and need to do whatever we would have to do as a cleanup bill,” said Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto, D-Hudson. “But again, I have the utmost confidence in the voters that they will understand.”
Read More: Could this be the NJ gas tax version of ‘Brexit’? Ballot question fuels opposition | http://nj1015.com/could-this-be-the-nj-gas-tax-version-of-brexit-ballot-question-fuels-opposition/?trackback=tsmclip
NJ doesn’t need a constitutional amendment to borrow $12 billion, it can borrow it off of any revenue source it wants to. The ballot question authorizes the following changes to the law. Additions are underlined, strike throughs are removed. Everything else is as it is today.
Section 2, Article VIII
4. There shall be credited to a special account in the General Fund:
(a) for each State fiscal year commencing on and after July 1, 2007 through the State fiscal year commencing on July 1, 2015 an amount equivalent to the revenue derived from $0.105 per gallon from the tax imposed on the sale of motor fuels pursuant to chapter 39 of Title 54 of the Revised Statutes, and for each State fiscal year thereafter, an amount equivalent to all revenue derived from the collection of the tax imposed on the sale of motor fuels pursuant to chapter 39 of Title 54 of the Revised Statutes or any other subsequent law of similar effect;
(b) for the State fiscal year 2001 an amount not less than $100,000,000 derived from the State revenues collected from the tax on the gross receipts of the sale of petroleum products imposed pursuant to P.L.1990, c.42 (C.54:15B-1 et seq.) as amended and supplemented, or any other subsequent law of similar effect, and for each State fiscal year
thereafterfrom State fiscal year 2002 through State fiscal year 2016 an amount not less than $200,000,000 derived from those revenues, and for each State fiscal year thereafter, an amount equivalent to all revenue derived from the collection of the tax on the gross receipts of the sale of petroleum products imposed pursuant to P.L.1990, c.42 (C.54:15B-1 et seq.) as amended and supplemented, or any other subsequent law of similar effect; and(c) for the State fiscal year 2002 an amount not less than $80,000,000 from the State revenue collected from the State tax imposed under the “Sales and Use Tax Act,” pursuant to P.L.1966, c.30 (C.54:32B-1 et seq.), as amended and supplemented, or any other subsequent law of similar effect, for the State fiscal year 2003 an amount not less than $140,000,000 from those revenues, and for each State fiscal year thereafter an amount not less than $200,000,000 from those revenues; provided, however, the dedication and use of such revenues as provided in this paragraph shall be subject and subordinate to (a) all appropriations of revenues from such taxes made by laws enacted on or before December 7, 2006 in accordance with Article VIII, Section II, paragraph 3 of the State Constitution in order to provide the ways and means to pay the principal and interest on bonds of the State presently outstanding or authorized to be issued under such laws or (b) any other use of those revenues enacted into law on or before December 7, 2006. These amounts shall be appropriated from time to time by the Legislature, only for the purposes of paying or financing the cost of planning, acquisition, engineering, construction, reconstruction, repair and rehabilitation of the transportation system in this State and it shall not be competent for the Legislature to borrow, appropriate or use these amounts or any part thereof for any other purpose, under any pretense whatever.[8]
I wish I could bet you on this. His house is already worth 600,000. In 11 years, you don’t think it could be worth a million? That’s only 67% increase in 11 years. Even if inflation stays at 2% (it won’t), you are telling me you can’t get a 6.7% avg return in 11 years? You think the market and economy are going to stay down for over 20 years (2008-2028)? Come on, be reasonable. Just show me one 20 year period where prices were lower than the previous 20 year price. Not happening.
3b says:
November 2, 2016 at 8:17 pm
Lost/ pumpkin stu is smart enough to realize that his house nice as it might he and in a prestigious town will in all probability not be worth one million dollars in 2027. Your fundamentals are b.s.
6.1% yearly avg….sorry, messed up
Property taxes are the cost of living. The better the lifestyle, the more you pay in property taxes. What does this have to do with being a huge killer for real estate investment?
Do you think the rents would be this high, if the property taxes were dirt cheap? Hell no. The landlord does not eat the taxes, he passes along to the tenants. So what does the property tax have to do with this?
If you are looking at single family homes as an investment, then I can’t help you. It’s not an investment in the technical sense, but it is an investment. It’s an investment based on the cost of renting. Renting you get no tax benefits, and you pay for the landlord’s profit which 90% of the time makes renting more expensive than owning. So yes, single family home becomes somewhat of an investment based on the savings from renting.
3b says:
November 2, 2016 at 8:13 pm
Lost property taxes are a huge killer for real estate as an investment. If you can’t see that well that’s simply because you need to justify your high taxes. We have had this discussion multiple times when you were the poster formerly known as pumpkin. If your happy with your high taxes pay them! You are trying to convince yourself not me.
The constitutional change made by question 2 is very clear, it’s dedicating the revenue, nothing more.
If you vote “no” to this, it goes to the general fund, which means it can be spent on anything.
Lost/ pumpkin like I said you need to convert yourself. But I don t think you are doing a very good job at that. Oh and one final point new jerseys economy is in the dumps and ain’t getting better. Being close to NYC ain’t enough pumps. Conversation is over now.
Beats them spending 12 billion of borrowed money on anything they want.
grim says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:03 pm
The constitutional change made by question 2 is very clear, it’s dedicating the revenue, nothing more.
If you vote “no” to this, it goes to the general fund, which means it can be spent on anything.
Take 5 minutes, read it a few times. The changes are very clear.
Anyone stating that you should vote “No” to the Gas Tax change is either politically motivated to do so, or wants those revenues to be used for other things, like paying the pension shortfall.
And in a year, the transportation trust fund will continue to be completely broke, and the pols would have spent the money elsewhere.
And this nonsense people are talking about voting “no” means they need to rescind the gas tax?
That’s just f*cking nonsense, no they don’t. It’s done, locked, loaded, over.
grim,
Assuming Ballot Question #2 passes, can the monies from the Transportation Trust Fund be legally used to pay interest on Transportation Bonds (even if the money from Transportation Bonds isn’t used for transportation related items)?
And in a year they will raise the sales tax and state income tax again.
No
But that doesn’t mean you will agree with what they define as the transportation projects which receive funding.
Light rail to Bergen County looks like a lock – along with the other light rail projects, you are talking about $3 billion dollars vaporized on an idiot patronage project.
Guadagno is turning this into something it is not for her own political ambition.
And she clearly hasn’t even bothered to read the amendment.
Idiot New Jersey will vote “No” on it, and completely f*ck themselves over.
Bergen light rail. Loretta Weinberg’s pet project.
Grim they have to plug that hole in the budget. And trust me if they want to continue issuing bonds going forward taxes will be going up.
Fcuk it. Bring it all down.
Light rail to Bergen county? I can’t see how there would be any demand for that.n
grim,
I’m voting yes. This is the first I heard of the $12 billion of bonds… so was just throwing a crazy idea out there.
I mean, give me a break, isn’t it obvious that this is going to be the issue that Guadagno hangs her hat on in the Gubernatorial race. How she fought against the gas tax, how it was a bad deal for NJ, and how she rallied to save us from it at the last minute. It also allows her to distance herself from fellow Republican Christie and the associated vitriol. God knows it’s a slim chance that NJ is going to elect a Republican in the next election. The Gas Tax issue easily crosses party lines.
You like torturing yourself? You are a renter, if you hate this state economy so much, why are you still here? You can get up and leave anytime you like.
3b says:
November 2, 2016 at 9:03 pm
Lost/ pumpkin like I said you need to convert yourself. But I don t think you are doing a very good job at that. Oh and one final point new jerseys economy is in the dumps and ain’t getting better. Being close to NYC ain’t enough pumps. Conversation is over now.
But let me guess, economic factors like a job are holding you here? Right? I said, right?
You’re such a loser pumpkin.
http://tinyurl.com/the-proof-blumpkin
Put up yours Mr. Real Estate Expert.
Or this one is even better.
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/zest_zps246f3acb.png
Plumpy’s chart is nearly a flat-line, but he bought more house on a 65mph street.
http://tinyurl.com/the-proof-blumpkin
Put up yours Mr. Real Estate Expert.
I call these Guys the “Eddie Rays”
http://www.reuters.tv/v/kv9/2016/11/02/in-one-georgia-forest-a-militia-preps-for-nov-9
I had an interesting invite today. Party bus from NY to the range in Woodland Park.
A few hours sampling six of their finest. Drinks on the bus on the way back and dinner in the city.
I’ll pass, I don’t want the sales pitch.
CUBS WIN
That’s right you tax cheating Limey, we’re all coming for you
Great delivery. Great arguments. Keep up the amazing spirit.
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