From the Star Ledger:
N.J.’s population rises, but New York and Pennsylvania lost residents
New Jersey’s population has risen slightly as the Garden State is hanging on to its ranking as the 11th most populous state in the nation, according to estimates released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
New Jersey had 8,944,460 people as of July 1, up just 9,000 from the 2015 estimate of 8,935,421. New Jersey counted 8.7 million residents in the 2010 census.
New York and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, were among eight states with a decline from 2015 to 2016. New York lost almost 2,000 people, bringing its estimated total to 19,745,289, while Pennsylvania’s population stood at 12,784,227, a decline of almost 7,700. Both remain in the top 10 in population.
New Jersey remained the 11th most populous state, but with a narrowing gap over Virginia.
Viirginia gained almost five times as many people as the Garden State, bringing its total to 8,411,808 in 2016 from 8,367,587 in 2015 and lowering the population gap with New Jersey to slightly more than 530,000. The 2010 census gave Virginia 8 million residents.
…
The fastest growing state by percentage was Utah, whose population increased 2 percent over the past year to 3.1 million people. Next was Nevada (2 percent) and Florida, Idaho and Washington (all with 1.8 percent).Texas reported the biggest overall increase in population with 432,957 new residents from 2015 to 2016, followed by Florida with 367,525, and California with 256,077.
“States in the south and west continued to lead in population growth,” said Ben Bolender, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch.
fristy
Word of the day – “Overpiercing”
http://www.northjersey.com/story/entertainment/2016/12/19/millennials-looking-fix-overpiercing-remove-tattoos/95058206/
Since November 8th, disaffected Democrats have tried and failed repeatedly to undo the 2016 Presidential election. First their was the failed recount effort launched by Jill Stein, an obvious front for the Clinton campaign, in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Embarrassingly, that effort actually resulted in a wider margin of victory for Trump but not before Stein wasted $7 million raised from devastated Hillary supporters.
Then there was the coordinated efforts of the White House, other prominent democrats and the mainstream media to turn the Electoral College against Trump, because Russia. Ironically, that effort too resulted in a wider margin of victory for Trump as only 2 electors refused to vote for him while 5 electors abandoned Hillary. Anyone else noticing a theme here?
Per Bloomberg, attorney Randol Schoenberg sued for the warrant to be released and has since expressed that he is “appalled” by its contents which failed to present “probable cause.”
…
We assume Schoenberg simply missed the following two paragraphs which point out that FBI agents, without reviewing contents, happened upon “thousands of emails” sent to/from Huma Abedin using State Department email addresses around the same time they know that classified information was sent out over unclassified systems.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/judge-releases-fbi-warrant-weiners-computer-left-blasts-lack-probable-cause-i-am-app
Will this mean the end of the foreclosure, or that lending standards are poised to swing the other way? From MarketWatch:
It hasn’t been this difficult to get a home loan since 2000
People who got a mortgage in the third quarter of 2016 had the highest credit scores since 2000, which could make it tougher for those looking to buy a new home.
The third quarter of 2016 saw its highest quality home loans since 2000, which is good news for banks holding the mortgages, but could make it tougher for those looking to buy a home.
Loans originating in this year’s third quarter saw credit scores increased by five points to 739 over the same period last year and the number of homebuyers with a score under 640 has dropped more than 75% since 2001, according to Irvine, Calif.-based analytics company CoreLogic’s Housing Credit Index, which measures mortgages based on homebuyers’ credit risks. The index also found homebuyers’ debt-to-income ratio, which compares how much a person owes to their income, and the loan-to-value ratio, which is how much the mortgage is worth compared to the price of the home, fell, though barely.
“What’s imperative for the consumer is that they take steps to manage their credit score and improve their credit score in preparation for buying a home and applying for a mortgage,” said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist.
Oh crap. Blumpkin just got a pair of Mortgages. We’re bound to be subject to a couple thousand words praising his personal financial genius because, after all, he was “smart” enough to pay his bills on time.
People who got a mortgage in the third quarter of 2016 had the highest credit scores since 2000, which could make it tougher for those looking to buy a new home.
We know lending standards are going to loosen, the newsflow is such that it’s being painted as being overly restrictive, especially to minorities and younger families, blacks and hispanics “left out” of housing boom. Just like last time, this was the argument that justified significant reductions in lending standards. Now, as rates rise, you’ll see the affordability argument alongside these. So, lending standards and credit scores go down now.
So, will the coming loosening of lending standards be sufficient to counteract the pending increase in rates?
Suspect the answer is yes.
I’m surprised you can get any credit beyond a $1000 limit 28% interest credit card with 640 or less. Can you really get a mortgage with a credit score like that or is that a husband with an 740 and his very pretty new wife with a 540 averaged together to make 640?
Loans originating in this year’s third quarter saw credit scores increased by five points to 739 over the same period last year and the number of homebuyers with a score under 640 has dropped more than 75% since 2001
Not to drag the pants into this again, but I also suspect we’re going to a temporary boom in home prices and sales as a result of rates increasing. All it’s going to take is for the 30y to show a nice trended graph, that everyone is going to be advertising with the tagline “buy now or be priced out forever”.
No surprises, it seems like this is playing out EXACTLY like last time. It’s not different, it’s exactly the same.
N.J.’s population rises, but New York and Pennsylvania lost residents
Easily explained. Those who can no longer afford New York move to New Jersey. Those who can no longer afford Pennsylvania kill themselves (or move to Florida).
Which is really a distinction without a difference
Those who can no longer afford Pennsylvania kill themselves (or move to Florida)
According to the lawsuit, Google’s employee confidentiality agreement fails the company’s “Don’t Be Evil” motto by making it a firiable offense to whistle-blow or to disclose salaries, work skills or experience to future employers. The plaintiffs accuse Google of illegally muzzling workers by threatening dismissal for speaking about wages, working conditions or to government regulators, lawyers or the press.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/google-sued-employee-illegally-muzzling-workers-retaliating-against-whistleblowers
So I guess you can get fired for going on a job interview? It probably works the same way in the CIA, and since that’s practically the same thing as Google, I guess it makes sense.
a firiable offense to whistle-blow or to disclose salaries, work skills or experience to future employers
Drove into the city office early this morning. Made amazing time. Get to desk. Network’s been down since 4am. Internet still works. It’s the minor victories that count.
Fabius,
You can find articles every day that counter the “Are we great yet” moment. The bottom line is that small and medium-sized businesses now have the shackles removed. It’s 1% of the total picture, though.
Your guy was ineffective, lazy, aloof, wallowing in his own pessimistic narcissism and wanted the whole country to believe that guilt, blame and resentment is justified. He’s an angry introvert and had no leadership skills other than blind persuasion.
Okay I’ll say it. Expat has really evolved into a douche.
D – I’m sorry that you can no longer afford Pennsylvania. No offense intended.
Okay I’ll say it. Expat has really evolved into a douche.
71% Of Americans Don’t Believe Russia Was Responsible For Election-Related Hacks
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/71-americans-dont-believe-russia-was-responsible-election-related-hacks
June – RUSSIA!
July – Russia
August – Russia
September – Russia? Cut it out.
October – russia
November – Russia
December – RUSSIA!!!
I love this guy.
NSFW(language)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsHCnohmAXQ
Where’s puzzy, Otto and Free?
I know it’s hard for simpletons to grasp concepts beyond binary choices but Stein dislikes Clinton as much as she dislikes Trump. It was a pleasure to watch her “waste” Clinton supporters money. Not to mention all the press she and the greens finally got. Of course the fact that Michigan and pennsylvania stopped the recounts evnthough they were paid for is pretty much proof Stein was on to massive fraud. You know, even beyond the targeted efforts to stop minorities from being able to vote.
“Embarrassingly, that effort actually resulted in a wider margin of victory for Trump but not before Stein wasted $7 million raised from devastated Hillary supporters.”
Just because you have no life doesn’t mean others don’t.
Fast Eddie says:
December 21, 2016 at 9:23 am
Where’s puzzy, Otto and Free?
Otto,
You’re so negative! Do you need a puppy?
Has anybody here seen my old friend Puzzy?
Can you tell me where he’s gone?
He spewed a lot of bullsh1t,
But it seems the good die young,
But I just looked around and he’s gone.
Has anybody here seen my old friend Ottoman?
Can you tell me where he’s gone?
He spewed a lot of bullsh1t,
But it seems the good die young,
But I just looked around and he’s gone.
Has anybody here seen my old friend Free?
Can you tell me where he’s gone?
He spewed a lot of bullsh1t,
But it seems the good die young,
But I just looked around and he’s gone.
Where’s puzzy, Otto and Free?
well what do you know, I refinanced in third quarter of 2016, chopped a few years off the term, and have a rate starting with a 2. Amazing what you can accomplish from mom’s basement when she lets me use the modem.
“People who got a mortgage in the third quarter of 2016 had the highest credit scores since 2000, which could make it tougher for those looking to buy a new home.”
Haven’t heard much about the BLM movement lately. Phew.
Your obsession with me is flattering. I wonder how many times my name was invoked here the past couple of weeks I was away. Because you all have such fulfilling lives. Lol.
Why do you even still have mortgage? Real white men just add a couple extra payments, bonus, income from rental condo and pay off their mortgage in 5-6 years. If a fireman married to a teacher making $280K per year can do it, you have no excuse. Your knot a homeowner until you by it back from the bank.
well what do you know, I refinanced in third quarter of 2016, chopped a few years off the term, and have a rate starting with a 2. Amazing what you can accomplish from mom’s basement when she lets me use the modem.
Back when Russia was run by communists who threatened to destroy the United States, lefties couldn’t be more enthusiastic, constantly clamoring for unilateral disarmament, “friendship exchanges”, they thought it was fine, even virtuous to send US secrets to the communists in Russia. They thought that people who helped send atomic secrets to Russia so they could have stronger weapons against us were saintly, as were Russian commie stooges who were caught attempting to influence American beliefs via Hollywood films and widespread editorializing.
Now that Russia is no longer run by communists and their army is no longer promising to destroy the US and American imperialism, the leftists suddenly turn Russia into bad guy #1, and when Russian spies hack into incompetently protected US secrets from corrupt politicians revealing how corrupt they are, they say its the end of the world.
Seems like quite a perverted perspective these leftists have.
Your obsession with me is flattering.
Actually, it’s amusing to read your opinionated assumptions. It’s as blind and narrow as your rudderless leader who’s still searching for a legacy.
It’s really much more simple.
When Dems are in office, Russia is an ally (see Clinton Foundation uranium deal). When Repubs are in office, Russia is an enemy,
Home Sales at 2007 high, pop the corks baby!
I was messing around with using “fast” as an example.
The experts are overcomplicating their analysis of the economy. Keep it simple for long term overall pictures. Business cycles and demographics, my friend, that’s all you need for long term pictures based on a consumption based economy.
Problem is, they have stopped focusing on business cycles because they think they can control it. As you can see, the business cycle is alive and well as a tool for trying to paint a picture of the economy in the long term.
Read this article so that maybe you can stop calling me an idiot and realize I know wtf I’m talking about. Look at this first line in the quote below, the man thinks the same thing as me….end of decade, new cycle begins. I’m not the only one on to this. Btw, I never read this article in my life, I just searched it up to help you understand.
“The most recent Kuznets infrastructure contraction began with the popping of the housing bubble beginning in 2006. The Kuznet model indicates that that bust continues and will likely not conclude until around the end of the current decade.
This is most probably one of the principal reasons, as well, for the Obama administration to be pursuing public sector infrastructure investment, so that it can counteract the private sector contraction.
I understand that the ideas presented here are probably new to most. At this juncture there is no action I am advising to be taken based on what the cycles are indicating.
But it is most probable that there will be renewed interest shown in business cycle theory by financial pundits in the near future and I hope this column helps to provide a reference for such discussion. ”
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/05/15/2014/past-prologue-economic-analysis-part-2
3b says:
December 20, 2016 at 5:36 pm
The blog has gone mad! Now pumps is using fast as his example for all is well but is indicative of what pumps has been saying. He predicted it all!! And I thought he might want to get new skills!! He is a feckin genius!!
A combination of a new business cycle, combined with favorable demographics, leaves me to believe that there is no doubt in my mind that a boom period is coming. It’s been a long bust, so you can expect a strong boom. It’s starting to come together already, and before you know it, lift off! Just a few years away.
Hey all,
Looking for some financial advice.. Do you think I should consult with a CFP or just open a 529 and keep it moving? I’m about to turn 40 w/ 2 kids under five years old. Haven’t saved for their education thus far and I’m wondering if I’m on the right pace for my own retirement.
no CC/other debt
my income = 150k
wifes income = 100k
savings = 70k
401k = 350k combined
equity primary home = 200k
equity in rental home = -10k
I also state that this will be the best boom of our lifetime in the 2020’s because the demographics are not favorable 2040 and beyond. You have minorities with no education having most of the babies. Combine that with an aging population and how are these minority babies with no education going to support that large of an aging population? It could all change with technology, but the days of the population growth fueling economic growth is coming to an end.
The world economy is going to face major problems. The united states is in much better shape demographically than the rest of the world. The world economy is screwed unless it figures out how to grow the economy with a negative or stagnant population growth rate. With an economy based on consumption to drive growth, someone is going to have to come up with a new economic system that isn’t based on infinite growth.
You are insane.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 20, 2016 at 11:32 pm
I have a theory that the last of the well-educated and principled USA-born adults were born around 1972-1975. I am not casting aspersions (yet) on the current crop of 18-22 year olds, but subtracting them out I think that people who are currently aged 25-41 might be the dumbest people the US has ever produced. I’ll give grim a pass as he seems wise beyond his years, but Pumpy is the archetype of the slump.
“equity in rental home = -10k”
How much is this rental home worth and how much time is left on the mortgage? I’m using my rental property to pay for my 2 kid’s college costs. You are doing well so far. I am not a FA, not by a long shot. Though I do read an awful lot about finance. I can’t wait to get the shackles of my mortgages off my neck so I’m a big fan of reducing the terms and paying way way less interest on them rather than taking on the risk of a better return with the free cash that the longer term mortgage (which I’m assuming you have) frees up. Also, if market crashes and stays down for a while, that 529 will suck balls as a college savings vehicle. 13 years is hardly a long term scenario to invest in Wall Street. Real estate moves much more slowly, but the return is way lower. Though, you can’t complain about the mortgage interest deductions and if your smart…all of the depreciation from the rental property.
My strategy is to have the renters of my multi pay off the mortgage on the multi and then I sell the multi when kids are ready for college My 15 year will be done about the time my first is in his third year and long before my second enters. If housing market stinks at the time, then I take out loans against equity in the home until market returns and then I sell. Hopefully, I can use some of the funds I’ve been saving in the rainy day/kids medical costs fund and use it to pay a few years off the multi mortgage so I can dump the POS when the first is a freshman. Tons of options.
Everyone’s tax situation is different of course. I’d listen to ChiFi.
“You have minorities with no education having most of the babies. Combine that with an aging population and how are these minority babies with no education going to support that large of an aging population?”
Maybe the old people can eat the babies?
Yes, it’s starting all over again like it always does. Cycles never fit a certain time frame, they have different characteristics, some are long, some are shorter, but they do happen over and over again. This real estate boom and bust cycle has happened how many times in our lifetime alone?
grim says:
December 21, 2016 at 7:41 am
Not to drag the pants into this again, but I also suspect we’re going to a temporary boom in home prices and sales as a result of rates increasing. All it’s going to take is for the 30y to show a nice trended graph, that everyone is going to be advertising with the tagline “buy now or be priced out forever”.
No surprises, it seems like this is playing out EXACTLY like last time. It’s not different, it’s exactly the same.
…how are these minority babies with no education going to support that large of an aging population?”
Vote democrat. Liberal leadership could apparently extract blood from a stone. They would prefer a live body with a career but they’ll take anything with means.
U.S.
Household formations by millennials lag behind other economic recoveries; high rents, mortgage standards cited
Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia.
Despite a rebounding economy and recent job growth, the share of those between the ages of 18 and 34 doubling up with parents or other family members has been rising since 2005. Back then, before the start of the last recession, roughly one out of three were living with family.
The trend runs counter to that of previous economic cycles, when after a recession-related spike, the number of younger Americans living with relatives declined as the economy improved.
The result is that there is far less demand for housing than would be expected for the millennial generation, now the largest in U.S. history. The number of adults under age 30 has increased by 5 million over the last decade, but the number of households for that age group grew by just 200,000 over the same period, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Analysts point to rising rents in many cities and tough mortgage-lending standards as the culprit, making it difficult for younger Americans to strike out on their own.
“I don’t think those are challenges that are going to keep young households permanently out of the housing market, but it may keep their homeownership rate near historic lows for likely the indefinite future,” said Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia’s chief economist.
The share of young Americans living with parents hit a high of 40.9% in 1940, just a year after the official end of the Great Depression, and fell to a low of 24.1% in 1960. It hovered between about 31% and 33% from 1980 to the mid-2000s, when the rate started climbing steadily.
The census data on living arrangements goes back annually to 1980, and prior to that was collected each decade.
Household formation is closely correlated with housing affordability and income. Among those aged 25 to 34, 40% of those earning less than $25,000 headed their own household. The share rose to 50% for those earning between $25,000 and $50,000, and 58% for those with incomes above $50,000, according to the Harvard Joint Center.
Census data also show younger Americans are getting married and having children later in life than previous generations. Even so, economists project the historically large millennial generation will more than double its current number of households through 2025.
Still, delayed household formation has kept home builders guessing about their behavior in coming years. Tim Kane, president of California builder MBK Homes, said it is obvious that household formation is slower for millennials. That leaves him to wonder: “Is it going to happen at the same rate, and is it going to happen at all for home ownership.
Speaking of household formation and demographics…I was surprised to learn what ethnic group is the largest…in the United States
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21642222-americas-largest-ethnic-group-has-assimilated-so-well-people-barely-notice-it
My strategy is to have the renters of my multi pay off the mortgage on the multi and then I sell the multi when kids are ready for college
This is an awful idea from a tax perspective, you are depreciating both units, and its not your primary residence, so you have no plan to shield yourself from capital gains.
You are better off selling your primary residence, moving back into the multi for 2-3 years, selling that, then moving to Costa Rica.
“You are better off selling your primary residence, moving back into the multi for 2-3 years, selling that, then moving to Costa Rica”
I’ve thought if this. Hard to get Gator to buy in.
If we wait until the second one is entering college. It just might work since we wouldn’t need our GR house anymore anyway.
“Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia.”
Part of this is probably the result of helicopter parenting.
Who cares about the high home ownership rate. We all know the middle class is going two different ways, some rich, and some poor. So without such a large middle class, how do you expect the homeownership rate to go back up to recent norms?
Will this impact housing prices? Imo, what you will have, is rich individuals looking to invest their money. They will buy real estate and rent it out to these individuals. So it will have no impact whatsoever on bringing down real estate prices. It might have the opposite effect.
The main factor people miss in this argument, will rents go down? NO. Renters don’t have to come up with down payments, so how much they can afford will increase on a yearly basis. The amount of rent that can be commanded will continue to keep prices up. The more rent goes up, the more housing will go up. There are a ton of wealthy people looking for places to put their money to work. There is now a permanent rental class for the rich to feed off of.
So if they lower lending standards, price goes up.
Keep lending standards tight, price still goes up.
Remember, this is the largest generation in American history. They might not be as quick as previous generations to impact the housing market due to current economic conditions and changes in cultural patterns (starting family later than previous generations), but they most certainly will on the back of the sheer magnitude in consumption patterns this generation presents to the economy/housing market.
““I don’t think those are challenges that are going to keep young households permanently out of the housing market, but it may keep their homeownership rate near historic lows for likely the indefinite future,” said Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia’s chief economist.”
Lost, pretty simple.
Take away social security and Medicare. Add hospital bill of 750k plus. Slap liens on old person’s property.
“no plan to shield yourself from capital gains.”
Also, I’ll be happy if I have any gains! Don’t forget. I bought the multi in 2004. The GR house? That will most certainly have gains.
Just thought about this while reading this post. This directly reflects my post at 12:22. Is it no surprise that 1940 is around the time of the golden era for unions in America (1930-1970). The unions helped grow the middle class to unseen levels as well as push up homeowner rates to unseen levels. So is it no surprise that we are returning to lower homeownership rates with the demise of the middle class that is directly a result of a lower union participation rate. The homeownership rate only went back up in the late 90’s and early 2000’s due to the lowering of the lending standards, not due to the growth of the middle class. So we are pretty much going back to the norm, rich own, the rest rent.
Of course, people will have a problem with a new rental class, so they will lower standards to get more of them into the homeownership ranks. It’s going to create a new bubble(the bubble is coming with or without the lending standards, lower standards will just create a bigger bubble), and the pieces will have to be picked back up after the bust.
This is my opinion based on the conditions presented. Obviously, conditions can change with govt policy.
Steamin’ Ormann, reminiscing about Cankles says:
December 21, 2016 at 12:13 pm
“Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia.”
Part of this is probably the result of helicopter parenting.
1:36
Unions provided good starting salaries. People didn’t have to go to college to get a job to pay for a house. So people started families at a much younger age. Why is this all so surprising to the experts? You expect kids today to start families in their early 20s? You can’t be serious. The millennials will come to the market, it will take some time. Just stop comparing them to previous generations and making assumptions off it.
And yes, that’s what makes me so proud of buying a house at the age I did. Might have been common in the past for your generations, but for my generation, that was a downright amazing investment move to pull off. NO ONE BOUGHT HOUSES AT MY AGE IN MY GENERATION…..NO ONE. I don’t know one individual that even came close to me. They all started buying at 30 or later. By the time the people in my age cohort started to buy, my investment was almost paid in full.
STFU!
grim says:
December 21, 2016 at 7:41 am
Not to drag the pants into this again, but I also suspect we’re going to a temporary boom in home prices and sales as a result of rates increasing. All it’s going to take is for the 30y to show a nice trended graph, that everyone is going to be advertising with the tagline “buy now or be priced out forever”.
No surprises, it seems like this is playing out EXACTLY like last time. It’s not different, it’s exactly the same.
not enough info to answer
expenses? (or reverse engineer….how much are you saving?)
I will consult via e-mail for up to 1 hour of my time at no charge….I have no ax to grind…..(please) donate to this website if you want to pay…..
If you send your kids to private college in the years 2028-2038 or so, they must graduate in 4 years and expect to pay out about $800,000 cumulative in nominal dollars at those future dates.
the big four O says:
December 21, 2016 at 10:35 am
Hey all,
Looking for some financial advice.. Do you think I should consult with a CFP or just open a 529 and keep it moving? I’m about to turn 40 w/ 2 kids under five years old. Haven’t saved for their education thus far and I’m wondering if I’m on the right pace for my own retirement.
no CC/other debt
my income = 150k
wifes income = 100k
savings = 70k
401k = 350k combined
equity primary home = 200k
equity in rental home = -10k
I may be a few hundred thousand dollars short…. :(
Class act! I hope some good karma comes your way. Much respect. Need more people like you in this world.
“I will consult via e-mail for up to 1 hour of my time at no charge….I have no ax to grind…..(please) donate to this website if you want to pay…..”
Feel the Bern!
how you do it….
http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/seacoastonline/obituary.aspx?pid=183074559
11:32 — Expat I kind of think once you reach a certain age and you see / read enough you may feel a certain way about the youth of today. But I am here to tell you, they have the sum total of everything we know at their fingertips and they are just getting started. They may be one heck of a lot smarter and better positioned than we think. My concern is that we, the current crop of idiots, leave them enough to work with…..
You’re right Otto. They found massive fraud in Detroit. More votes than ballots cast.
http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2016/12/18/detroit-ballots-vote-recount-election-stein/95570866/
Of course the fact that Michigan and pennsylvania stopped the recounts evnthough they were paid for is pretty much proof Stein was on to massive fraud.
Master-baiter (winner of the Fifth Annual Pumpskin Fishing Contest) – Show your work dickweed.
I also state that this will be the best boom of our lifetime in the 2020’s because the demographics are not favorable 2040 and beyond.
Essex – Maybe you don’t work with them in a technical capacity. US born engineers and software developers are crap right now. They can search the internet, but problem solvers and clever coders they absolutely are not.
11:32 — Expat I kind of think once you reach a certain age and you see / read enough you may feel a certain way about the youth of today. But I am here to tell you, they have the sum total of everything we know at their fingertips and they are just getting started. They may be one heck of a lot smarter and better positioned than we think. My concern is that we, the current crop of idiots, leave them enough to work with…..
Someone with that diminished a level of debating skills usually ends up living on busy road their whole life and wondering why.
You are insane.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 20, 2016 at 11:32 pm
I have a theory that the last of the well-educated and principled USA-born adults were born around 1972-1975. I am not casting aspersions (yet) on the current crop of 18-22 year olds, but subtracting them out I think that people who are currently aged 25-41 might be the dumbest people the US has ever produced. I’ll give grim a pass as he seems wise beyond his years, but Pumpy is the archetype of the slump.
Grim [07:41];
No surprises, it seems like this is playing out EXACTLY like last time. It’s not different, it’s exactly the same.
Good. Last time I bought at the bottom. This time I can sell at the top. That’s a difference, isn’t it? :-D
Free p0rn is the best form of birth control.
Household formations by millennials lag behind other economic recoveries
2:36 — I buy that. Wonder why? There are a lot of things about their customs which are baffling. Perhaps it is something in the water?
Pumpskin is going to end up like Clint Eastwood’s character in Gran Torino.
ExPat [14:36];
Essex – Maybe you don’t work with them in a technical capacity. US born engineers and software developers are crap right now. They can search the internet, but problem solvers and clever coders they absolutely are not.
That’s because they are paid $h!t, due to competition from foreign labor. An Indian programmer speaks English by default; you can get them over here an the H1B racket or other immigration boondoggle (you see all those Eastern European “guest workers” at the shore this summer? Thank your bipartisan Congresscritter) with just a modest donation — thanks to what I call the “Chamber of Commerce” wing of the GOP); they don’t mind working for peanuts because they’re used to a far lower standard of living than your average American young adult AND they’re happy to save a couple of thousand to take back with them and maybe remit back $200 a month to their family back home which is like a whole ‘nother working adult — economically its as if they never really left.
I’m constantly scratching my head about these evergreen “STEM” initiatives. Why should I encourage my kid to learn a truly demanding skill only to get whored out overseas a la Disney. I hope you liked Rogue One, though.
Forget it, Jake. Its Ithacatown.
“An Ithaca man accused of killing a UPS driver from Candor said in court Monday afternoon that not only did he believe he shot and killed Donald Trump, but that no evidence could be presented to him to suggest otherwise.” Man accused of Ithaca homicide: ‘I shot and killed Donald Trump purposely, intentionally and very proudly’
Such a healthy ideology fostered on the left; who wouldn’t want to see more of it?
ChiFi [14:10];
I like it, but there’s something about the irreverent Irish sense of humor that I don’t get.
Moose (15:03)
So US engineering schools only graduate idiots now because the smart kids know not to become engineers?
What would you say about yourself as a kid? Guarantee the people your current age said the same bs about you. Perspective is a beautiful thing. I promise you, humans get smarter, not dumber, as they evolve.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 21, 2016 at 3:35 pm
Moose (15:03)
So US engineering schools only graduate idiots now because the smart kids know not to become engineers?
It’s not busy, it’s a double lined county road. Do you know how many people in our country live on these type of roads? Ignorance is strong with you.
I suppose nobody should buy on a double lined road, everyone should only live at the end of the culdesac, right? F that. I like that people actually drive and walk past my house. It’s nice hearing compliments on how beautiful my lawn and home is. Called pride!
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 21, 2016 at 2:40 pm
Someone with that diminished a level of debating skills usually ends up living on busy road their whole life and wondering why.
ExPat [15:35];
I’m not saying US tech schools graduate idiots; though I will note that there is an ocean of difference between technical knowledge and business acumen. Engineering as a trade has a very shallow “moat” as Buffet might call it.
Expat, 2:44pm
I wonder how many millenials understand that if the guy finishes with a facial/pearl necklace each time, the lady won’t get pregnant?
“Free p0rn is the best form of birth control.”
Expat, where do you work? The issue is probably one of where you work. Tech workers, especially good ones have options and many are eschewing traditional companies. I know a lot of talented developers between 25-40 years old(mostly in their 30’s), all US born and educated. I’ve found Americans are few and far between when you look to hire.
I am going to guess that the best of the best are in NoCal right now……..
jcer says:
December 21, 2016 at 5:29 pm
Expat, where do you work? The issue is probably one of where you work. Tech workers, especially good ones have options and many are eschewing traditional companies. I know a lot of talented developers between 25-40 years old(mostly in their 30’s), all US born and educated. I’ve found Americans are few and far between when you look to hire.
chi, it has less to do with location more to do with work environment. The corporate environment is not one that is loved by your best developers, also the best developers are lazy. If I had to be a developer where I work I’d be gone in a an instant.
jcer – I work for a Fortune 500 company in the health care sector. We don’t have dunces working for us, I’m just telling you that my observations. We were acquired 6 years ago and the benefits started going down as did the culture and we did lose some good people, but my observations are over a much longer period. I’ve worked in startups, mid-size companies, and behemoths. When I was a new to management (1998) in the heat of the dot com boom, I had no problem finding great people. I hired guys that were so talented I began to feel threatened by how sharp they were, these were guys 10 years younger than me. That era of engineer and developers (now in their mid 40’s) are still sharp as hell, but it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a young guy who can match my technical skills, particularly when it comes to full stack coding. Hardware and networking there is talent, but programming, I don’t see it in Boston. Like chifi said, maybe they’ve all gone West.
Expat, where do you work? The issue is probably one of where you work. Tech workers, especially good ones have options and many are eschewing traditional companies. I know a lot of talented developers between 25-40 years old(mostly in their 30’s), all US born and educated. I’ve found Americans are few and far between when you look to hire.
Moose – When evaluating stocks I’m familiar with moats, wide and narrow. I’m not sure what a shallow moat is.
I’m not saying US tech schools graduate idiots; though I will note that there is an ocean of difference between technical knowledge and business acumen. Engineering as a trade has a very shallow “moat” as Buffet might call it.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2016/12/the_20_towns_with_the_highest_incomes_in_new_jersey.html#0
Full disclosure here boys, we were all set to move to the South Shore of Boston.
Yeah. Living in Chicago when a big pharma firm tossed a tidy sum our way and we ended up in NNJ, that was ’99 and since then I have pretty much lived my ‘adult life’ as a homeowner, a married man with wife and a child.
I have what I consider to be a very objective view of the State. It’s been far more lucrative than I would have imagined, but as New Jersey gives, it takes almost doubly. Not to say that New York would be any better. Now please don’t get me wrong, I love the money that is ‘here’ and it is fun being in the one percent. Let’s not kid ourselves, being rich beat the ever loving daylights out of being poor.
But, and here is the big but, I don’t know anyone that wouldn’t leave here in a minute. Many who are here say it is family that keeps them here. Personally since I have lived here, I’ve seen nightmarish government, poorly run schools, gorgeous places bordered by slums which speaks to terrible zoning, massive overhang of vacant corporate centers across Essex and Morris Co. Lived in both. NJ’s long term prospects concern me. I just cannot see how the state will manage being run by the loons that populate it.
There is a side of me that would prefer to cut and run after we sell our place, but something tells me that the golden handcuffs will prevail. If so fine, but it will be with some trepidation that I trade up in this particular place.
Essex: When it comes to government it takes a crisis for real change; The reason is that those who are going to have their DNA on the changes don’t want to be held responsible even though they know it’s the right thing
Also don’t judge school bureaucracy based on how a for-profit company would work as much as I know exactly what you mean about the way the schools are run the most important thing is the output of graduates and New Jersey really does stand out well as much as it pains me to say that
Expat you answered my question. I work in the financial sector back when I started a lot of the people who came into the firm I was at through the college hire program were very good, most of them left for start-ups, smaller companies, tech companies, at least a few went to google, amazon, IAC et al. Young people don’t want to do the 8-6, wear office clothes, office setting, with audits and controls and all of that boring stuff. Millennials are different in that respect, I understand the perspective, but I like making a stable income. Also tech salaries a bifurcated, if you are not offering base salary north of 150k you aren’t getting a really strong developer. When I was at MS in the IB the really sharp developers were making base salary of 200k+ 20% bonus some up to 300K, which is a good salary for developers as 150k is far more common in the industry. 15 years ago you could hire decent developers for 75-100K depending on the market it is now like 125k-150k, demand has never been higher(between apps, IoT,Web, etc) and in my mind the offshore work is just making more work as companies need to bring in the experts to fix the mess made by people who really don’t know what they are doing. A good developer is worth their weight in gold, as they will usually get to the solution far more quickly and usually make those around them far more productive. Developers have a choice and baring excessive pay healthcare, finance, etc are not going to be the first choice.
Did everyone leave for Xmas already?