The building boom cometh

From Builder Magazine:

REALTORS: EXISTING HOME SALES TO RISE 3.5% THIS YEAR.

Job gains and improving household confidence are expected to guide existing-home sales to a decade high in 2017, but supply and affordability headwinds and modest economic growth are holding back sales and threatening to keep the nation’s low home-ownership rate subdued, according to speakers at a residential real estate forum here at the 2017 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, presented his 2017 midyear forecast and was joined onstage by Jonathan Spader, senior research associate at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, and Mark Calabria, chief economist and assistant to Vice President Mike Pence. Spader’s presentation addressed past and projected movements in the home-ownership rate, and Calabria dove into why reversing weak productivity and the low labor force participation rate are necessary to boost the economy.

The first quarter was the best quarterly existing sales pace in exactly a decade (5.62 million), and Yun expects activity to stay on track and finish around 5.64 million – the best since 2006 (6.47 million) and 3.5% above 2016. With several metro areas seeing hefty price growth, the national median existing-home price is expected to rise around 5% this year.

Although sales are currently running at a decade high, Yun believes the healthy labor market should be generating even more activity. However, listings in the lower- and mid-market price range are scant and selling fast, and home buyers are discovering they can afford less of what’s on the market based on their income.

“We have been under the 50-year average of single-family housing starts for 10 years now,” said Yun. “Limited lots, labor shortages, tight construction lending and higher lumber costs are impeding the building industry’s ability to produce more single-family homes. There’s little doubt first-time buyer participation would improve and the home-ownership rate would rise if there was simply more inventory.”

Housing construction has been uneven so far this year, but Yun does anticipate starts to jump 8.4 percent to 1.27 million. However, this is still under the 1.5 million new homes needed to make up for the insufficient building in recent years. New single-family home sales are likely to total 620,000 this year, up 8.4% from 2016.

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77 Responses to The building boom cometh

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Phoenix says:

    Good morning Mike.

  3. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. unemployment rate drops to 4.1 percent in April

    New Jersey’s jobless rate ticked down notch down to 4.1 percent in April as employers added 1,900 jobs, state officials announced Thursday.

    Five industries expanded their employment in April, while three cut jobs. State and federal government employment contracted, as well.

    James Wooster, chief economist for the Department of Treasury, said in a statement that “this is fully in line with the performance over the current recovery.

    The 4.1 percent jobless rate — below the 4.4 national unemployment rate — is the lowest since 2001, according to state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

    Leisure and hospital sectors had the strongest growth, with 3,100 new jobs, followed by professional and business services with 2,600. Financial activities added 1,300 jobs, education and health services added 800, and other services added 100.

    Employers in trade, transportation and utilities cut 4,600 jobs; construction lost 1,000; and manufacturing posted a loss of 400.

    State public-sector employment dropped by 1,700 and federal employment by 800.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics also released improved results for March, which originally posted a loss of 19,100 private-sector jobs that was offset slightly by a 1,600 new hires in the public sector.

    Those figures were revised down by 5,000 jobs, to a total loss of 12,500.

  4. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @petridishes

    skirts at Fox News today will be lowered to half-mast

  5. Chi says:

    Puzzy: Nice. : )

  6. Alex says:

    Great article in the WSJ about the realization by the democrat Connecticut gov that the rich in that state are all but tapped out and they can’t go back to that well yet again to close their budget defecit. That once lovely state is now in dire financial straits, because they taxed and taxed and have chased away their golden geese.

    The article can be accessed for free through the drudgereport.

  7. bobbixk16 says:

    Started untrodden snare stand out
    http://arab.egypt.adultnet.in/?post-destini
    organisations votes types muharram edmonton

  8. jcer says:

    Connecticut and NJ are one and the same and have the same problem. The wealthy and upper middle class are the economy in those states and it was always about siphoning off economic activity from the neighboring metropolises as a result of being lower cost. Since they are no longer lower cost the economy is contracting, businesses are leaving, costs are escalating, it is a vicious cycle. In NJ if Phil Murphy wins it will only deepen, his tax proposals likely won’t effect me in any significant way but there are some very rich people I know who likely would pick up and move their operations to South Florida, the proposals to help the working class will do the opposite. Regional competitiveness is important, when an executive who works in NYC has to pick a place to live taxation is an important consideration, if I have to pay more to NJ than NY it is significant. NJ needs to have a competitive tax structure with NY, CT, and PA. Democrats in this state still haven’t figured out that 100% of 0 is 0, we need to bring in the rich because 5% of millions is significant, the money spent by these people fuels the local economy and our current policies encourage people to come here for benefits, South Jersey is full of PA people here to collect our more generous govt handouts. Democrats in NJ, less rich people and more people on government aid…..a sure plan for prosperity and economic stability.

  9. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Jcer…I think you nailed it. NJ’s only chance for survival is if NY and CT and less so PA follow in our footsteps. PA might, because a lot of old mill towns might become their own Patersons and Camdens. NY, seems to generally be less corrupt in government. CT, well that ship has sailed. They are in the same place as NJ, but with less depressed cities to pay for, though Hartford and surrounding areas are no walk in the park. Will be interesting to watch from my hammock in Costa Rica.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer, if the rich have taken almost every dollar of economic growth, yet they refuse to pay their taxes, and seek low cost tax avoidance states to shelter their money, who then will pay the taxes? The people they refuse to higher or give raises to? Who will then pay the bill? These people aren’t over taxed, they are overly greedy. They want to keep every dollar. So they do their best to try and avoid their bill with gimmicks paid for by expensive lawyers and lobbyists. Have money for that garbage, but not money to pay their bill. So I ask again, who then will pay it? Taxes are at an all time low, and they are still crying about the overbearing tax system that somehow is producing billionaires like a ford production line.

    How can the billionaire class be growing at such a rapid pace if they are so overtaxed? Explain that. I’m all ears.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If the taxes are so restrictive, how is their wealth growing at such an insane pace? Riddle me this, riddle me that….

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Poor billionaires, we should lower their taxes so they don’t run away. Are we really this naive?

    “The hedge fund magnates Daniel S. Loeb, Louis Moore Bacon and Steven A. Cohen have much in common. They have managed billions of dollars in capital, earning vast fortunes. They have invested large sums in art — and millions more in political candidates.

    Moreover, each has exploited an esoteric tax loophole that saved them millions in taxes. The trick? Route the money to Bermuda and back.

    With inequality at its highest levels in nearly a century and public debate rising over whether the government should respond to it through higher taxes on the wealthy, the very richest Americans have financed a sophisticated and astonishingly effective apparatus for shielding their fortunes. Some call it the “income defense industry,” consisting of a high-priced phalanx of lawyers, estate planners, lobbyists and anti-tax activists who exploit and defend a dizzying array of tax maneuvers, virtually none of them available to taxpayers of more modest means.

    In recent years, this apparatus has become one of the most powerful avenues of influence for wealthy Americans of all political stripes, including Mr. Loeb and Mr. Cohen, who give heavily to Republicans, and the liberal billionaire George Soros, who has called for higher levies on the rich while at the same time using tax loopholes to bolster his own fortune.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/30/business/economy/for-the-wealthiest-private-tax-system-saves-them-billions.html

  13. jcer says:

    Pumpkin you’re missing the point, it’s not about fair. It’s about the fact that the rich call the shots, and they have free will. Places favorable to the rich(Switzerland) have good economic growth, places unfavorable(Venezuela anyone), not so much. We want the rich to come here and spend money end of story, if we are not competitive tax wise, we lose.

  14. Phoenix says:

    Pumps,

    Read what everyone else here has been saying about saving, you included.
    Save over time, invest, etc. Keep spending to a reasonable amount.
    What states have done is increase spending year after year. We are not talking about the last 2 years, it is way longer than that. No balanced budget/deficit running. Are taxes low? Question you should ask is (minus the deficit) i are the taxes covering the current expenses plus the projected expenses of any benefits (with inflation adjustment) for that entire tax year.
    You don’t end up with a deficit if you take in the correct amount to cover your nut each year.
    Problem is that we have a debt that is in the billions. Think musical chairs. The ones who get out now will not be holding the bag. Either you deny benefits/phase benefits or you tax the daylights to cover the bill. Phasing is a favorite because the person who stays here pays more and more, yet gets less and less. Think slow boiling a frog. As an added benefit the can kicks farther down the road allowing the older generation to buy time at the expense of the younger generation.

  15. Bystander says:

    “I’m all ears”

    No, you are all lips and a$$h0le.

    “Companies” have skirted paying taxes for years and shitty run states like CT always counted on companies to set up HQs in their state as alternative to high priced Manhattan​. They gave away all kinds of tax incentives to get them but once the tax deal is up, that company can always find another state to offer more incentives.
    Stamford could only attract RBS and UBS but Euro banks have retreated from US. Giant UBS building is sitting empty, once largest trading floor in world I think. RBS is down to 600 (and shrinking) from 3k in 2007. CT/NY/NJ are experiencing metro area economic cannibalism. CT is in a particular bind because Boston and Mass are hot spots too. GE left Fairfield for Boston. Who purchased the old HQ? F-in Sacred Heart University. Flush with cash from extorting students and don’t pay taxes. Suburban working is dead. That is why CT and NJ are f-ed. At least, JC appears to be winning. Stamford is sucking wind but building like no tomorrow.

  16. Phoenix says:

    Jcer,
    We could solve this problem from within if we could agree to. Capitalism has an ethical dilemma attached to it. Remove the ethics from capitalism and you are off to the races.

    Also ethics has no educational/socioeconomic boundaries. White collar crime can destroy thousands of lives, but one blue collar crime that destroys one life is given more weight.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I understand the game, I also understand how this game ends based on history. Over and over it crashes because the rich get to a point where they take too damn much and the people revolt. Someone has to pay for it, if the people with money won’t, then who will? The bottom 50% with absolutely nothing?

    jcer says:
    May 19, 2017 at 11:27 am
    Pumpkin you’re missing the point, it’s not about fair. It’s about the fact that the rich call the shots, and they have free will. Places favorable to the rich(Switzerland) have good economic growth, places unfavorable(Venezuela anyone), not so much. We want the rich to come here and spend money end of story, if we are not competitive tax wise, we lose.

  18. Phoenix says:

    Pumps,
    You have said in the past, “if you can’t beat them, join them.”
    What you have not realized is that they have not invited you to join them.
    They are better than you, don’t want you, don’t care about you and don’t want you to “join” them.
    What they want is for you to falter or fail. Then they pick you apart like a piece of roadkill.

  19. Phoenix says:

    Pumps,
    People revolt?
    What do you think this is, a scene from the movie “The Patriot” where someone here would actually have a chance.

    If it hits the fan you would be better off with some of Grim’s burbon and some of that soon to be legal marijuana-then sit back and watch the show. George Carlin was right.

  20. jcer says:

    Pumpkin, you clearly don’t understand it. It is like the dilemma manufacturers have, they can either keep manufacturing here as is, find efficiencies, automate, etc and compete to keep manufacturing here or follow the herd offshore. If you take option 1, you will not be competitive, your competition will be able to produce a cheaper product and you will go under. With option 2 you are taking a big risk that you can be so much better operationally than your competition that you can match them on price and exceed their quality, if you succeed status quo, if you fail you are out of business. With option 3 you follow the herd and stop focusing on manufacturing and focus only on your product, your production costs and quality will match your competition, and you’ve minimized risk. The decision is usually made to offshore and outsource.

    At the state government level inequality cannot be addressed(I’d argue at the federal level it is still difficult). Naive thinking on the part of politicians confounds the problem, if the minimum wage is $9 in PA and $15 in NJ how many businesses pick up and go across the border? If I’m rich and can live anywhere and NJ now has a millionaire tax and NY doesn’t, that much more reason not to move to Short Hills or Alpine, I can move to Westchester or LI. The state has tried to fix public schools in the ghetto, guess what, they are unfix-able, Christie is right equal state aid is the solution.

  21. Walking bye says:

    Jcer we must also define what a millionaire is for pumpkin. If its a corp executive making $10 m plus , site taxes are not as much of an issue. I would argue there is a benefit to living in NYC even with the additional city tax. Money begets money. Hell the perks they throw in for you make the taxes a wash. Free housing private schooling for kids etc. But if your doctor lawyer professional etc making $400k ( beginnings on NJ millionaires tax) with studentloans you are going to look at your costs and taxes and think hard about staying here. So you start having a brain drain on top of all the jobs leaving.

  22. jcer says:

    My thought process is a bit different, many insanely wealthy people are spread in the suburbs. Just look at Alpine, Saddle River, Short Hills, Rumson, et al and their equivalent towns in Westchester and LI. There are people who would not want to live in NYC, for the uber wealthy the city tax isn’t a deciding factor but I’m sure it’s considered.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I understand, pick something over nothing. I just don’t understand why it has to be this way. Everyone always talks about efficiency in the economy and the need for it, yet we rely on an economic system that is blatantly inefficient in it’s distribution of resources with a “winner takes all approach.” How many brilliant minds are wasted because they were born poor, and are smart enough to given up all hope of improvement in their life? How is this efficient? How can this system produce on the basis of competition, when for the majority of the population, there is no competition….they have given up.

    Like I said previously, if you can’t beat them, join them, which I certainly do. I just wish that people could open their minds and realize capitalism can be improved upon and it could be a lot better than it currently is, if we tweak the model to produce better results.

    Maybe, just maybe, we could get better results if the competition was more rewarding for most of the players as opposed to just REWARDING THE TOP. Why shouldn’t a worker be rewarded for working hard? Right now, the sad reality for a good amount of workers out there is the following; we need you to do this job, but no matter how hard you work, you will get no promotion or raise, only replaced. Just takes the ambition right of the majority of the population. One of those workers could have had the idea in his head to change our world, but instead, this worker’s mind is now filled with hate and focused on the idea that no matter what he/she does, or how hard they work, they will go nowhere. What a waste of a mind. We can do better than this.

    jcer says:
    May 19, 2017 at 12:33 pm
    Pumpkin, you clearly don’t understand it.

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The professional class you mention below are the people getting stuck carrying the burden of the millionaires/billionaires that skip out on their tax bill. Who do you think makes up for their lack of taxes…. the upper middle class. Almost every got damn time. Sickening.

    “But if your doctor lawyer professional etc making $400k ( beginnings on NJ millionaires tax) “

  25. jcer says:

    I think most people on here know the professional class, carries the burden and they largely are the most critical part of the economy(doctors, lawyers, accountants, engineers, etc) as they make good incomes but generally are beholden to a job.

  26. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    jcer – exactly my thoughts.

    Connecticut and NJ are one and the same and have the same problem.

  27. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I used to just skip over all of the multi-paragraph Pumpkin posts. Now I still skip them but also skip over any post replying to the misfit. It only takes about 44 seconds to read a day’s worth of relevant posts now.

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Aka…I’m a close minded bigot that only wishes to partake in discussion that correlates to my own thought process.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 19, 2017 at 3:24 pm
    I used to just skip over all of the multi-paragraph Pumpkin posts. Now I still skip them but also skip over any post replying to the misfit. It only takes about 44 seconds to read a day’s worth of relevant posts now.
    Leave a Reply

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “When Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize in Economics, he promoted the current story: “the only responsibility of business is to maximize profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs.” The rules governing business ever since reflect that story. That was in 1976, a time when financial capital was considered in short supply and nature abundant. No one was talking about peak oil or climate change. But that is no longer true. The situation has changed. The story and the rules must also change.

    Question 3: What is the new story?

    I was taught in pre-1976 business school that corporations should be good citizens, should serve a public interest, in addition to paying a decent rate of return to investors. They should give employees health care insurance, retirement pensions, job security, pay taxes, and support public service institutions, like schools and recreational facilities.

    The acceptance of Friedman’s logic, the Reagan/Thatcher (counter)revolution, the hijacking of academia and the economics profession, the absurd concentrations of wealth and power among a tiny elite, and many other events have led to a new dominant moral and economic order called neoliberalism. We must now create a new story, one that states that the responsibility of business is to serve the public, to be good citizens, to contribute to our shared commons, and to create a regenerative economy rather than a cannibalizing one.”

  30. Pr0udL1beral says:

    breaking news: Nut job told commies that comey is a nut job.

    It only keeps getting worse!

  31. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Aka…I’m a close minded bigot that only wishes to partake in discussion that correlates to my own thought process.

    Agreed. You also display inferior grammar, writing skills, and reasoning ability.

  32. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    See? Keep it to two or three lines and I’ll read it.

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ProudLWord – He’s also on record for saying that the Clintons are criminals. What is he thinking?

    Hahahahahahahaha

    breaking news: Nut job told commies that comey is a nut job.

  34. 3b says:

    Pumps you are contradicting yourself again. You said high taxes are a badge of honor
    Now you are saying there a problem?

  35. 3b says:

    Stu as for Connecticut and bad cities. In addition to Hartford there is New Haven, Bridgeport, and Stamford is not great either. Not to mention it’s losing its tax base.

  36. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It just occurred to me what the downfall of NJ and CT tells us. I’m pretty sure people of means move away from New York…and some come back. I’m pretty sure people of means move away from CA…and some come back. I’m thinking that in NJ & CT…not so much? I just don’t recall anyone ever saying, “I’ve had enough of this! I’m just going to pack up and go back to Jersey!”

  37. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    At least you can get a degree in flower selling at the University of Bridgeport.

    http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Mayor-has-chilly-relationship-with-University-of-4063935.php

  38. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I used to have to travel to New Britain on business. About once a month for 6 months. My customer was Stanley, which used to be New Britain. My first time driving there I didn’t really notice anything, because I was just finding my way there. On subsequent drives I took notice of nice, smallish, 4 story Brick buildings that were clearly empty and would surely be condos in Boston. I was really surprised and appalled to realize that there were New England previously thriving urban communities that destitute in CT. I was under the mis-impression that CT was all good. That was circa 2006. It seemed like New Britain was just exempt from the housing bubble. They apparently pulled a “Buffalo”.

  39. 3b says:

    Lower Manhattan is packed with school kids. I see them every day with or without their parents walking to school.

  40. grim says:

    Buffalo is smoking hot these days.

    Medtech is BIG.

  41. grim says:

    As goes NY/NJ/CT … so goes Boston.

    Careful what you wish for.

    In fact, Boston will shit the bed long before NYC does.

  42. jcer says:

    CT and NJ are very similar Hartford might as well be Newark. The population mix is very similar, Suburban, Urban, Exurban, rural, etc. CT underwent the same transformation NJ did from manufacturing to office park, to devoid of economic activity. The politicians never realized that the businesses in the state might not need to be located close to NYC anymore and that since they aren’t benefiting from the proximity it is just a liability because of the cost of living and taxes.Despite shrinking economy’s and bankrupt governments neither are cheap places to live. CT and NJ are still desirable places for NYC commuters(the whole Penn thing hurts us here) and they have nice communities(Just try to buy a house in Millburn or Greenwich, not cheap and nothing available)

  43. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Milton Friedman was a ideologue that believed that countries would be forced to abandoned mercantilism and currency pegs if you reduced trade borders. He was 100% wrong, and that is the primary reason wealth concentration exploded.

  44. grim says:

    Work from home is now the plague I hear.

    Everyone back to the office.

  45. hobojoe says:

    I grew up in New Britain and still work a second job there on weekends. Used to be the “Hardware City of the World”. Amount of manufacturing was amazing. Then it all folded up and moved out. Even when I was growing up, everyone either worked at Fafnir or Stanley Works or had an immediate family member who did. Once Fafnir moved out things started to go downhill quicker coupled with a shift in the ethnic makeup of the area. Crime went way way up. Stanley moving away was one of the last nails in the coffin. There still are empty lots all over where arson burned down multi-family buildings. Taxes fairly high being an urban area. Now at least in the Broad St. area (up the street from the now-empty Myrtle st Stanley complex) the Polish have taken the neighborhood back and it’s done a complete 180. Just wish they could do something to bring something productive back to the old Stanley buildings. Demand for manufacturing space is coming back at smaller shops.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Chi, I think you are wrong about the “green revolution” and this financial times article does too.

    ““It hit the electricity sector first, in Europe in 2013 and then the US two years later. Now it has spread to the auto sector and I think the oil industry is next.”
    The shift has come as increased government efforts to curb climate change and smog have driven down costs and spurred technical advances, creating a green energy industry that looks nothing like it did a decade ago: expensive, sluggish and German.

    Today, China and India have picked up the baton and are driving a sector that has spread to every continent. The result was a banner year for green energy in 2016.

    Global renewable power generation capacity rose by 9 per cent last year — a fourfold increase from the start of this century — buoyed by the growth of newer sources such as solar power that shot up by more than 30 per cent. For the second year in a row, renewable energy accounted for more than half the new power generation capacity added worldwide. Sales of plug-in electric vehicles last year were 42 per cent higher than in 2015, growing eight times faster than the overall market. The storage capacity of big lithium ion battery systems more than doubled last year.

    These advances have become too significant for the oil and gas industry to ignore. In the first three months of this year, the heads of some of the world’s largest oil companies have spoken of a “global transformation” (Saudi Aramco) that is “unstoppable” (Royal Dutch Shell) and “reshaping the energy industry” (Statoil). Isabelle Kocher, chief executive of French power and gas group Engie, calls it a new “industrial revolution” that will “bring about a profound change in the way we behave”.”

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/44ed7e90-3960-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Agree.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    May 19, 2017 at 5:33 pm
    Milton Friedman was a ideologue that believed that countries would be forced to abandoned mercantilism and currency pegs if you reduced trade borders. He was 100% wrong, and that is the primary reason wealth concentration exploded.

  48. Yo! says:

    NJ native, Rutgers grad, economist, Trenton policy wonk, now top Federal fiscal expert I know concluded this about the state’s economy: The only way it thrives is if New York City fails and $$ escapes to NJ. In other words, thriving New York City makes a NJ comeback impossible.

    This is why Hudson County is the fastest growing county in the state. The New York City proximity immunized it from the policy mistakes made by NJ politicians.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Yet fast-growing industrialising nations are seeing some of the most profound changes. Towering over them all is smog-choked China, which has become a green energy juggernaut after designating renewables a strategic industry.

    China has more than a third of the world’s wind power capacity; a quarter of its solar power; six of the top 10 solar-panel makers; four of the top 10 wind turbine makers and more battery-only electric car sales last year than the rest of the world combined.

    India is eager to follow: it built one of the world’s largest solar photovoltaic farms last year; ranks fourth in the world for wind power capacity; and could become the world’s third-biggest solar market this year. It also wants to boost its use of electric cars.”

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “In the rest of the world, however, the future of green power appears assured. So much so that an industry that has spent years on the defensive is beginning to show a rising sense of confidence.

    “Fossil fuels have lost,” says Eddie O’Connor, chief executive of Irelands’s Mainstream Renewable Power. “The rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet.””

  51. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Renters like us will be sleeping easy. All I need from Boston is for Boston Latin to stay open until June 2022 and Harvard to stay open until 2026. I won’t even be worrying whether the tuition bubble pops by then as I’m sure the price will be pretty much the same to a retired couple living on social security;-)

    As goes NY/NJ/CT … so goes Boston.

    Careful what you wish for.

    In fact, Boston will shit the bed long before NYC does.

  52. The Great PumpKing says:

    B-b-b-but they will all move to the suburbs of Passaic County when it’s time to raise a family. It-it-it-it’s all about cycles and demographics and wh-wh-where I pay my m-m-m-mortgage and t-t-t-taxes. It-it-it-it’s the cost of society and I l-l-l-like my high taxes.

    NJ native, Rutgers grad, economist, Trenton policy wonk, now top Federal fiscal expert I know concluded this about the state’s economy: The only way it thrives is if New York City fails and $$ escapes to NJ. In other words, thriving New York City makes a NJ comeback impossible.

    This is why Hudson County is the fastest growing county in the state. The New York City proximity immunized it from the policy mistakes made by NJ politicians.

  53. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    grim – I think the Boston RE market would be crap right now if it wasn’t for all the NJ tuition and discretionary income sent our way since forever. I think there are about 2 dozen people I knew in HS living within 10 miles of us who came up here for college and never left, and that’s just off the top of my head that I know about. There’s probably a lot more. Boston College has their graduation this weekend. If you looked at the license plates around here right now you’d swear you were in Bergen County.

  54. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    “In the rest of the world, however, the future of green power appears assured. So much so that an industry that has spent years on the defensive is beginning to show a rising sense of confidence.

    “Fossil fuels have lost,” says Eddie O’Connor, chief executive of Irelands’s Mainstream Renewable Power. “The rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet.””

    Anyone that thinks we have a better fuel than fossil fuels needs a lesson in Thermal Physics.

  55. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Without fossil fuels how would I ever charge my Tesla and Prius that I drive to save fossil fuels?

  56. Phoenix says:

    BRT,

    Do you believe that fossil fuels are finite? Do you believe that extraction of fossil fuels in the future is going to be more expensive as the easier fields disappear?

    I do. I also believe that , if possible, fossil fuels should be reserved for uses that only they can be used for. Of course, things like this would require cooperation that will never be achieved so that is a pipe dream.

    It’s all economics. Gas price drops, giant SUV and pickup sales increase.
    Gas prices go up, high efficiency car sales go up.
    Follow the money. Cars, Politicians, Lawyers, Crimes, Spouses, Family and Friends, Employers, etc. Ethics will always take a backseat to the greenback.

  57. Phoenix says:

    Ex Pat,
    Solar Cells. But you won’t buy them until they are cost effective.
    Not saying you should. They should have been much less expensive until the USA put tariffs on solar panels. Why solar panels, of all things to tariff. China can dump all other types of items on the USA, but we tariff the one thing that would be helpful for many people.
    The game is rigged. That’s why. K street tentacles reach everywhere.

  58. GlendaInibe says:

    The Android O segment of Google I/O was broken up into two sections: Fluid Experiences and Vitals.

    Fluid Experiences encapsulate the new features and functionality coming to Android with the upcoming update. The first of those is Picture-in-Picture, which will allow users to hit the home button and return to the home screen while minimizing the active app into a small window. This feature will be supported by YouTube, Netflix, Google Maps and “a lot more” apps when it arrives alongside Android O.

    Notification Dots are another notable addition to Android. In Android O, small dots will appear on launcher icons on the home screen when you have a notification from the app. You can long-press the app icon to see the notification without actually having to open the app. Google says that the color of the Notification Dot will actually respond to the color of the app icon as well.

    Other Fluid Experiences include the ability to use Autofill in apps aside from Chrome and smart text selection for copy and paste. From now on, when you select a string of text, Google’s neural network will attempt to figure out exactly what you want to copy, be it a name or an address.

    Finally, Google says that TensorFlow Lite (a more compact version of its open source machine learning software library) will be available on Android phones later this year.

    #AndroidO brings a more fluid experience to your device. Here’s a first look at a few new features coming later this year. #io17 pic.twitter.com/TwKU0ftZFE
    — Android (@Android) May 17, 2017

    Moving on to Vitals, Google is introducing a new program called Google Play Protect to keep Android users safe from dangerous apps. Google says that it scans 50 billion apps a day, but it wants to make these security measures more visible to end users. Now everyone with an Android device can see how recently their apps have been scanned, or even initiate a new scan, with Google Play Protect.

    Google also claims that boot time on Pixel devices will be twice as fast with Android O. All apps will be faster and smoother on Android O by default as well, thanks to changes in the runtime. Additionally, Google is adding “wise limits” to the location and execution of background apps to protect battery life and free up memory, all of which should make Android O run faster.

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    Last, but certainly not least for the crowd full of developers, Google introduced Play Console Dashboard, which analyzes every app and points out the top six issues causing performance issues like battery drain, crashes and slow UI. Developers will be able to see how many users are affected and will be provided with some potential fixes to make the app run better on Android devices.

    The first beta release of Android O is available today at Android.com/beta.

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Phoenix – It’s actually a lot worse than that. China decided decades ago that they will own solar technology, so they do the opposite. They heavily subsidize all Chinese solar industries; No non-Chinese company has a chance of competing in the space without state subsidy. Not too many years ago the majority of all US-manufactured solar cells were all being shipped to China because they didn’t have the manufacturing capability to produce same.

    Ex Pat,
    Solar Cells. But you won’t buy them until they are cost effective.
    Not saying you should. They should have been much less expensive until the USA put tariffs on solar panels. Why solar panels, of all things to tariff. China can dump all other types of items on the USA, but we tariff the one thing that would be helpful for many people.
    The game is rigged. That’s why. K street tentacles reach everywhere.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    100 years from now we will probably be so Idiocracy-like that we will be excavating landfills to turn all the Chinese plastic back into oil.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Last but not least is the theory that bigger wage increases will begin to appear soon—the forces of supply and demand can’t be denied. Last year, Federal Reserve Board Principal Economist Jeremy Nalewaik released a paper called Non-Linear Phillips Curves With Inflation Regime-Switching. The thrust was that the famous curve has a sharp bend: There’s a wide range of unemployment rates where wage growth is unaffected, but below a certain threshold, wages begin to rise rapidly. “It would be unwise to assume the Phillips curve remains so flat at all levels of the unemployment rate,” Nalewaik wrote.

    Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the rate-setting arm of the Federal Reserve System, seem to be swinging in Nalewaik’s direction. Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, who was once a dove on monetary policy—favoring low interest rates—has become a hawk. In a May 10 speech in Vermont, he argued that the jobless rate is on the way to “overshooting”—becoming too low for comfort. He urged three quarter-point hikes in the federal funds rate over the rest of the year, vs. the median projection of two hikes among FOMC voters. Many economists simply don’t believe wage growth will remain modest with unemployment headed toward 4 percent or lower. Says JPMorgan’s Silver: “The logic behind the Phillips curve just makes sense.””

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-19/unemployment-in-the-u-s-is-falling-so-why-isn-t-pay-rising

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The National Review — one of the most conservative publications in existence that is also (mostly) committed to factual reporting — doesn’t mince words:

    “President Trump’s self-inflicted wounds have rendered the cognitive dissonance of his defenders untenable.”

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/447746/donald-trump-self-inflicted-wounds-conservative-cognitive-dissonance-untenable

  63. D-FENS says:

    The National Review’s writers are all Nevertrumpers. They’re butt hurt Bush lost the nomination.

  64. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    The Next Shortage Facing Young Homebuyers: Good Schools

    One effect of the U.S. housing market crash was to cripple homebuilders and their lenders, forcing construction workers to find jobs in other fields. Today, homebuyers have returned to the market in full force, but the lack of new construction over the last decade has contributed to an inventory shortage that’s pushed home prices out of reach for many.

    Now, the same young homebuyers who must cope with bidding wars to buy a first home may face a shortage in another key resource: schools for their kids.

  65. Newbomb Turk says:

    A good school is one your kid is happy in.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Grim, the article supports your position of a declining standard of living for most Americans. As goes education, goes the future our economy.

    Article also supports my position on extreme inequality. Article shows the impact of income inequality and it’s not good.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Terrible. Like dominoes, leading to problem after problem.

    ““If there’s a period of under-investment, particularly in places that haven’t recovered yet, that has implications for subsequent generations,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia. “That potentially is widening income equality for the next generation.””

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why were millennials living in their parents basement instead of buying houses of their own….income inequality.

    Why are govts having a harder time paying the bill….income inequality.

    Why is there a need for a single payer healthcare system….income inequality.

    Why is there a huge student debt problem…..income inequality.

    Why have some locations passed up 2006 prices, while others are still below 2006 prices….income inequality.

    Why were wages stagnant for some, and flying away for others….income inequality.

    Why has the economy been stuck in a period of low growth….income inequality.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fix income inequality by tweaking our capitalist system to redustribute more capital to the majority of workers. Give them a carrot to work harder and do great things. Open up markets in which small businesses can be born and thrive (a healthy competition, not one in which two or three giant corporations own the entire market share and block all entrants). Watch the creativity and ambition of small business owners and workers go to work. Provide the conditions for the majority of participants to improve their lot if they work hard and everything will be fixed in time.

    So the question is; do the players at the top give back some money to the rest of the participants so that this game continue, or do they want to claim victory, not give anything back, and end this game (think of the game of monopoly).

  70. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Welcome to the Saturday PumpKing hour(s).

  71. Still in NJ with Pumpkinhead says:

    I would say, is the next version of Dr.Remulak

    https://youtu.be/hNJ3AlJrgv4

  72. Phoenix says:

    Ex Pat,
    China saw value in them. They do work. Make a panel and you have 25+ years of energy.
    Germany has expanded their use. In the USA what should be made affordable is hobbled by tariffs, regulations, SRECs that energy companies don’t like, etc.
    When an industry does not want something, it lobbies against it.
    In the USA, we don’t do what is for the greater good, we do what makes us a profit.

    Not too many years ago the majority of all US-manufactured solar cells were all being shipped to China because they didn’t have the manufacturing capability to produce same.

  73. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Do you believe that fossil fuels are finite? Do you believe that extraction of fossil fuels in the future is going to be more expensive as the easier fields disappear?

    I do. I also believe that , if possible, fossil fuels should be reserved for uses that only they can be used for. Of course, things like this would require cooperation that will never be achieved so that is a pipe dream.

    It’s all economics. Gas price drops, giant SUV and pickup sales increase.
    Gas prices go up, high efficiency car sales go up.
    Follow the money. Cars, Politicians, Lawyers, Crimes, Spouses, Family and Friends, Employers, etc. Ethics will always take a backseat to the greenback.

    Of course they are finite. But anyone that thinks that they aren’t the greatest single resource in the history of this planet are speaking jibberish. The idea that anything can supplant them is ridiculous.

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