From CNBC:
Growth in US home prices continues in March, reaching 33-month high
U.S. home prices rose slightly less than what was anticipated for the month of March, according to new data from the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. But the gains were enough to reach a 33-month high, climbing at the strongest rate in nearly three years.
This, as inventory of homes for sale remains “unusually low,” the group said.
The national home price index increased 5.8 percent in March, while analysts were expecting home prices to rise by 5.9 percent for the month, according to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates.
Meanwhile, the widely tracked 20-city home price index rose 5.9 percent from a year ago in March, the most since July 2014.
The latest data released Tuesday shows that home prices continued their impressive rise, across the country, over the past 12 months.
Home prices had hit a record in September, and the pace of growth accelerated ever since then. Among the 20 cities surveyed for this report, Seattle, Portland and Dallas just reported their highest year-over-year gains.
The smallest gain of 4.1 percent was in New York.
NY Commuter – Up from Bottom (2012)
Low Tier (Under $282964) – Up 25.8%
Mid Tier ($282964 – $453490) – Up 22.8%
High Tier (Over $453490) – Up 15.9%
Aggregate – Up 18.7%
Condos – Up 41.0% (This is about 17% above peak pricing in 2008)
NY Commuter – Down from Peak (2006)
Low Tier (Under $282964) – Down 20.0%
Mid Tier ($282964 – $453490) – Down 11.4%
High Tier (Over $453490) – Down 8.0%
Aggregate – Down 12.8%
Condos – Up 17.0%
Conservatively, we could be returning to peak pricing in about 2 years, if current trends continue, certainly by 2020.
Level of price increases in the Low and High tiers has increased on a year over year basis, prices are rising faster. Mid Tier has been pretty stable at about 5.7%-5.8% per year over the last 3 years. Low tier could potentially be last to recover but the wildcard is credit availability at the low-end. Mid-tier will likely be second to recover peak pricing, as NY Metro Condos have already completely recovered and surpassed peak pricing. However, keep in mind the geographical distribution differences between the Condo and Single Family indices – this makes direct comparisons tricky.
From HousingWire:
Disappearing bankruptcies could start new wave of homebuying
This year marks the seventh year since the influx in bankruptcy declarations in 2010, therefore millions of Americans will see bankruptcies begin to fall off their credit report.
Over the next five years, about 6 million Americans will have their bankruptcies disappear, possibly sending a flood of more homebuyers into the housing market, according to an article by AnnaMaria Andriotis for The Wall Street Journal.
This chart, which uses data from the U.S. Bankruptcy Courts analyzed by HousingWire, shows Chapter 7 non-business bankruptcies peaked in 2010 during the housing crisis then decreased over the next few years before leveling off in late 2015 to 2016.
…
In 2010, the number of Chapter 7 bankruptcies, the most common type of bankruptcies which do not involve a plan of repayment and instead liquidate the filer’s assets, increased to nearly 1.14 million. Of those, nonbusiness Chapter 7 filings made up about 1.1 million, according to the U.S. Bankruptcy Courts.
For comparison, the number of Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings among non-businesses in 2007 totaled just more than 500,000, data from the U.S. Courts showed.
After hitting the peak in 2010, bankruptcies once again began to slowly decrease. In 2016, Chapter 7 non-business bankruptcies slipped to 473,673 filings.
Now, seven years later, these bankruptcies will begin to fall off, improving the credit score for millions of Americans, and enabling them to once again consider homeownership.
…
And Hispanic homeownership could also see an increase over the next few years as President Donald Trump and his administration seek to “dismantle” the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, which could give lenders more freedom to originate loans outside traditional qualified mortgages. They could then, perhaps, extend more lines of credit to the Hispanic population.
That last paragraph is a key indicator, not because it’s either a good or bad idea to dismantle Dodd Frank, but look at the positioning of the author and the wording used. This is the kind of palpable perception shift that changes markets. Don’t read the policy wording, read the psychology.
Grim, thank you for the figures and I appreciate the condo numbers.
Grim and njrereport readers, how do you explain condos +17%?
I expect more comments about politics than the housing numbers. Readers have failed to predict the condo price boom and are embarrassed.
NYC and Gold Coast.
Condos in central jersey do not show this trend.
Does school district matter for home price appreciation? Gold Coast prices blasting higher while burbs stagnate. Maybe being close to Manhattan matters after all.
I think the condo boom is due to people not wanting to mow their own lawns.
Yes, school district impacts pricing, and school choice will destroy that dynamic.
Remember how this works, first the center of NYC (Manhattan) hits record pricing, then hits a wall, and it spills over. Then those areas build up pricing and are no longer a value, and it spills over again. So give the burbs of nyc some time to catch up, they are in the beginning stages of their build up in pricing. The spill over has only impacted train towns and will soon spill over to the surrounding areas as these other places become a complete value compared to the train towns.
Yo! says:
May 31, 2017 at 8:41 am
Does school district matter for home price appreciation? Gold Coast prices blasting higher while burbs stagnate. Maybe being close to Manhattan matters after all.
“National home prices hit 33 month high”
LOL. Gut punch of the day. Check out the price history.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/39442230_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/40.746769,-74.624162,40.713273,-74.679093_rect/13_zm/
All real estate is local. Condos in my blue ribbon commuter town are through highs (as are homes). Town over, not blue ribbon, but better quality condo construction and development (ie, great for the new empty nesters from my town who want to stay local and don’t need the school district) are back near peak.
I thought all women are Brazilian waxed these days?
Steamy Cankles Foundation says:
May 31, 2017 at 9:00 am
I think the condo boom is due to people not wanting to mow their own lawns.
Re Condos……. if we could get data parsed for U.S. citizens, it would say quite a bit methinks……..
Condo pricing could be aging population as well. Guys I worked with who have not moved to the Carolinas are trading into a condo. Snow shoveling and lawn care are not as much fun in your 60s. Another traded into a condo waiting for his severance package to arrive before bowing out to Vermont,
I may be completely clueless here. But how many of these condos are sales turned into rentals? You see so many of these new U.S. RE investments marketed to foreign investors and I would figure much of the RE in these are condos turned rental. Though kind of joking about the lawn mowing (or waxing), I am finding that all of my tenants since about 2012 don’t know the difference between a Philips and a flat end screwdriver. Though anecdotal, every Millennial that I know can’t cook for themselves, can’t repair things and are really mechanically inept. Have any of the other landlords here noticed a similar thing? Or is it just progressive Montclair Millennials that have this shortcoming?
I was driving to a tennis match in Mendham yesterday evening, and drove past some of the biggest mansions I’ve ever seen. Bigger than the Governor’s mansion. Huge houses on 20+ acres of maintained grounds, big entrance gates. Later I looked up a few on Zillow. $60k to $80k/yr tax bills, maintenance and upkeep must be huge. Even owned outright I’d have to guess $250k+/yr total annual cost of upkeep. Some are architectural monstrosities.
Also, I won my match.
Chicago, accurate data on the non-citizen buyers is impossible to collect. British Columbia, where Asian buyers have driven home prices to C$740,000 (C$1,400,000 for house in Vancouver), began collecting data on foreign buyers recently and latest stat is 1.3%. The money originates outside Canada but it put in hands of Canadian friends and family.
Similar situation happening in parts of New York area. What it means is home prices can detach permanently from income levels, and middle class New Jersey residents must get used to this fact.
Bring on school choice!!
The spill over is spreading and it will eventually impact all of northeast nj.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2017/05/the_hottest_real_estate_markets_peaking_right_now_in_nj.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured
All examples of spill over and how it spreads. One place shoots up in value, it eventually makes the places around it that didn’t see a rise in value look like a great value. It’s inevitable that northeast nj will eventually be one of the hottest markets in the country as the spillover spreads and this metro area economy grows.
“As home prices became out of reach for many in neighboring Millburn, Maplewood’s leafy streets exploded with would-be home buyers seeking a suburban life near the city. It remains more affordable than most towns nearby, but likely not for long. Lately, homes here have frequently are sold for tens of thousands of dollars above asking price.”
“As Hoboken became more and more cramped and expensive in recent years, Weehawken has suddenly seen explosive growth. The hilly riverside community offers spectacular views of New York City with more space than neighboring Hoboken. The city commute isn’t bad either, if you’re driving either — the Lincoln Tunnel approach cuts right through the center of town. ”
“Carlstadt is one of a handful of towns surrounding Jersey City and Hoboken that has seen marked gains in valuation during the past year. Experts say these towns are becoming popular as prices for property in those cities become out of reach for most. “
Pumps off his meds again.
When your in laws are visiting for a month, is 9 AM too early or too late to start drinking? Asking for a friend
Just imagine the impact of this huge investment in the infrastructure of northeast nj that will be taking place in the next 10 years. This play is going to be on fire.
What infrastructure?
Duh. I said about 100 times that a young family or recent college grad should give the middle finger to Hoboken and find a place in the Teterboro/Woodridge corridor. Save and invest a ton of money. Walk to the train and laugh at the idi0ts who think Carlo’s Bakery is the b0mb.
Pumpkin, do you spend your weekends sitting on a lawn chair in your driveway waving to traffic?
Fast Eddie, these young families and recent college grads who bought in Hoboken have accumulated massive home equity which can be used to put huge down payments on houses in posh suburbs. Most recent sale at Hudson Tea, maybe the most prominent Hoboken condo, was 52% higher ($320,000) than previous sale price. And that gain is tax free.
Yo,
What percentage of these puppies living in Hoboken have the scratch as a down payment in the first place? And of those, what percentage bought at the trough to sell at the peak? It’s better to invest than gamble.
So Stu as the resident Essex County tax appeal expert any tips? I just got my hearing date yesterday, trying for a big reduction as I paid 400k less than the latest assessment.
I think I am paying massive taxes for 2 acres of useless land(Heavily sloped with cliffs) my argument is going to be I have what amounts to a yard equivalent to 1/3 or 1/2 acre lot with the maintenance of over 2 acres, in the market the lot actually reduces the value of the home as it is nearly impossible to do anything with it and it only costs money to maintain(Just the retaining walls alone scare off most people). All of my comps have much smaller lots, as there aren’t too many(maybe any) homes with 2 acre lots in my town. The listing history should be enough to get a reduction, the house sat on the market listed at the current assessment for all of 2013-2014.
They carved off the build-able pieces of land that used to be part of my houses lot in the 50’s-60’s and built some really dreadful houses around me another thing that hurts my value, I’ve got a great 1920’s house but I’m surrounded by house that look like they are out of the brady bunch.
“The spill over is spreading and it will eventually impact all of northeast nj.”
Been there and done that. Mid-80s. Late 90s. Aughts. Wake me when the Poconos are hot again (90 minute commute!!).
The formula this time is simple. Direct access across the river as NYC proxy (Hoboken, Weehawken) *or* if suburbs combination of proximity (Midtown direct train line), schools, walkable downtown.
Most of these towns have already skyrocketed, including the ones on the list (Millburn, Chatham x2, etc). Some of the ‘rising’ ones (Weehawken) have been ‘rising’ through three up/down cycles over the last 30 years. The marginal ones (Moonachie, lol), like the Poconos, will get tagged hard when the market cycles down again.
I once banked someone (unfortunately) with a very interesting back story who acquired significant prime real estate near the waterfront in Jersey City at the beginning of the 90s. Took a long time before the location turned. Cash on cash I’m sure there was a return, but if straight up speculation is your thing visit the CBOE.
If I were to pick one town off that list, Asbury Park.
Interesting…Coincidentally, I read an article yesterday that Hispanic families (probably those with family members who are here illegally) are fleeing border states like Texas and Arizona because of their crackdown on “sanctuary” cities.
I also remember reading that Phil Murphy wants to make the entire state of NJ a “sanctuary” state.
grim says:
May 31, 2017 at 6:11 am
That last paragraph is a key indicator, not because it’s either a good or bad idea to dismantle Dodd Frank, but look at the positioning of the author and the wording used. This is the kind of palpable perception shift that changes markets. Don’t read the policy wording, read the psychology.
Oh I forgot….Moneybag$ Phil “goldman sachs” Murphy also wants to create a NJ State bank.
New Jersey Township to Pay $3.25M Settlement Over Denied Mosque
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/new-jersey-township-pay-3-25-million-settlement-over-denied-n766316
A New Jersey township that stopped an Islamic society from building a mosque will pay the group $3.25 million, ending a multi-year battle that spanned 39 public hearings and included allegations of anti-Muslim animus.
Terms of the agreement were made public Tuesday, about a week after Bernards Township voted to settle lawsuits brought last March by the Islamic Society of Basking Ridge and in November by the Justice Department.
According to the settlements, Bernards Township will pay $1.5 million in damages to the Islamic society and $1.75 million in attorneys’ fees and litigation expenses. The law firm representing the society said it will donate its payment to charity.
The society will also be permitted to construct its mosque on the 4.088-acre property it bought in 2011, court papers said.
Poconos?
You can buy a whole mountain out there with a ski resort for pocket change.
http://www.mcall.com/business/realestate/mc-poconos-ski-resort-bargain-price-20170526-story.html
Meanwhile in Bayonne
TRUMP’S JUSTICE DEPT. PROBES POSSIBLE DISCRIMINATION AGAINST MUSLIMS
http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/17/05/30/trump-s-justice-department-investigates-possible-discrimination-against-muslims
In what could be a significant test of President Donald Trump’s relationship with a religious minority he antagonized on the campaign trial, WNYC has learned the U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether a New Jersey town discriminated against local Muslims by denying their application to construct a mosque, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in New Jersey.
The town of Bayonne, across from Staten Island, rejected a proposal to convert a warehouse into a mosque, citing concerns about parking and buffer zones to adjacent properties. While Bayonne planning board members never uttered a discriminatory word in public, residents circulated anti-mosque fliers referencing September 11th, and meetings about the project were marked by local residents weighing in on the legitimacy of Islam itself, with readings of violent passages from the Koran. Last week, the Bayonne Muslims, who have been praying in the basement of a church because there is no local mosque, sued the city and planning board members, alleging that discrimination led to the rejection of their proposal.
re: NJ State Bank.
You can’t be a bankster without your own bank. You know we gotta get a cut on the action change a vig to college students who cannot afford the loans they already get and do commercial small businesses who can’t get lines of credit without actually going to a factor.
Well how to they build up reserves in that bank? Easy the state and its agencies are required to place their funds in the bank, maybe even the towns too.
What could go wrong?
Islamic lawyers are raking it in in NJ. They won a case and got paid off by Bridgewater a couple years ago. I cant wait for them to start planning a mosque next to Pumpkin’s house.
Murphy…Financial alchemy is all that is needed to grow a money tree.
State development banks are wonderful for wielding political favoritism and pulling in cash for corrupt politicians. Clueless leftist economists were singing the praises of Brazil’s state infrastructure bank, but that entity was key to the corruption and political gang warfare embedded in the economy. Bureaucrats deciding who gets subsidized funding for government-approved projects – How could that not go wrong?
Fun Fact…North Dakota is the only state in the US that currently has a State owned bank.
Seems like a nice idea…but it is really inviting trouble in a state as corrupt as NJ.
North Dakota’s state bank was created in 1919
D-FENS – The Bernards Township officials had all kinds of derogatory emails that were found during discovery. Anyone who writes crap like that down on paper or electronically deserves to lose a planning/zoning case over 57 parking spaces.
The less control those dopes have over our lives the better off we are.
I love leverage. A little shit bank like the state one in North Dakota posts about $100 a million a year in profits.
NJ can do better. A $2.4 billion slush fund that goes to pet projects. A nice Tier 1 level ratio of 8% on $30 Billion on State funds and if you include local municiap funds add it another 30 Billion?
I think it’s time to eliminate the tax break for religious real estate holdings. Enough is enough. Why in the world should religious holdings be subject to no property tax? Give me one got damn good reason.
It helps that North Dakota struck oil. I doubt their doing so great because of farming.
Ignorant dopes like you are why towns are ordered to comply and pay millions of dollars in damages.
Religious freedom founding principle of the United States and has been reinforced in court many times.
If only we could get the same kind of respect for our second amendment rights in this state.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 31, 2017 at 1:24 pm
I think it’s time to eliminate the tax break for religious real estate holdings. Enough is enough. Why in the world should religious holdings be subject to no property tax? Give me one got damn good reason.
How is it fair to the people in the town who don’t belong to these religious institutions getting caught in the crossfire of paying the bill when these institutions spread to consume so many previously tax paying properties?
From corporations to religious institutions ducking out on paying their cost of society, it’s time to come up with something rather than property taxes to pay for the cost of society. With property taxes, it’s unfair because who the hell knows what a fair tax assessment is, so it’s arbitrary right from the get go. Then you have people who know the tax assessor and get off paying their fair share. Lastly, you have govt politicians handing out tax breaks to whomever they feel should get a break (whoever lobbies the hardest). Houston, we have a problem. Time to blow it up and come up with a new system that is both fair and logical. Don’t allow any outs, we all pay based on the same exact formula. No special loopholes and what not.
Ahh, one can dream.
I don’t think our founding fathers would have imagined so many different religions taking over our country(how many made up religions are out there?). I don’t think our founding fathers ever realized how these religious institutions would abuse the tax laws. Time to blow it up and change it with the times.
God damn you are a dunce.
Our founding fathers didn’t give a cr*p about religion. This country was founded for economic freedom, by people trying to escape the hierarchical society of Europe. The idea was quite simple, everyone can do their thing and make their own livelihood.
Please explain. So you are in support of this crap?
D-FENS says:
May 31, 2017 at 1:39 pm
God damn you are a dunce.
Yeah…I mean…it’s not like they wrote about religious freedom into the first amendment.
jcer says:
May 31, 2017 at 1:41 pm
Our founding fathers didn’t give a cr*p about religion. This country was founded for economic freedom, by people trying to escape the hierarchical society of Europe. The idea was quite simple, everyone can do their thing and make their own livelihood.
Go ask Lakewood residents that don’t belong to the local orthodox population how it’s working out for them. Getting massacred, but that’s okay, right? The constitution supports it, so it must be right.
HA! Pumpkin, I was just about to chime in with that exact example.
D-FENS, historical context. They wrote about Freedom of religion because they wanted freedom from religion. Living around puritans and Quakers would make this something you definitely wanted included. Separate church and state, et al… again it was all about making sure the historical power brokers in Europe weren’t dictating government in this new country.
Many were deists, that would get you into trouble with the pretty much every mainline religion at the time.
Wages haven’t increased so many families require two salaries and perhaps 3 jobs to make a mortgage payment. Unlike homes, all condo maintenance is done via your checkbook and the only views people are interested in anymore appears on a screen, so why not buy a box and watch your box?
Grim and njrereport readers, how do you explain condos +17%?
Correct. The vibration and two hands requirement makes texting difficult.
I think the condo boom is due to people not wanting to mow their own lawns.
Religious freedom is freedom of speech and thought. And the act of not taxing someone is not the same thing as giving them money. Everyone should be free from not being taxed to pay for other people. I’m also against these sort of zoning laws being used to favor some and hurt others. If Catholics have churches on main street, why not Mosques? Because they showed up first? I’m not a fan of either, mind you.
As an atheist, every day I’m acting as a holy man within my “religious organization” and my pursuit of godless rational capitalism should thus be non-taxable.
I just thought of something, we could figure out exactly when Pumpkin mows the lawn abutting the raceway by just looking for a gap of an hour or more between weekend posts. All the weekend posts are his anyway, so it should be easy to spot.
Who the Fcuk cares what Musk thinks anyway. He should learn to build a $100,000 car with body panels that line up properly from the factory.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/musk-vows-to-leave-trump-councils-if-u-s-exits-paris-accord
Wrong. Price will go down when all the smart families take their profits and leave because they realize that stupid families are paying too much for houses in their town. Then you will have a once good school district now fully filled with the stupid children of those remaining all-star stupid parents. Several years of price declines ensue while Pumpkin and friends will still be paying their mortgage and scratching their heads as to why their kids didn’t amount to anything and why they lost so much money on their RE “investment”.
Yes, school district impacts pricing, and school choice will destroy that dynamic.
“The Bernards Township officials had all kinds of derogatory emails that were found during discovery.”
Problem right there, before the content. Officials can’t communicate on matters outside the public hearings. Aside from prejudicial content there is a built in appeal on procedure alone.
Hillary Clinton just now at Codecon: “[The situation with the email server] was like a help desk issue.”
More Hillary gold:
“I take responsibility for every decision I made but that’s not why I lost.”
Nerver heard anyone refuse to testify in front of Congress over a help desk issue..
I’m surprised they let her into the convention. I wonder if she discussed the pros and cons of bathroom servers?
JCER,
Gator will answer your property tax question later. She’s the expert. I just learned a little from her.
Depends on how loud the in-laws are when they are hitting it…….
JJ fanboy says:
May 31, 2017 at 11:22 am
When your in laws are visiting for a month, is 9 AM too early or too late to start drinking? Asking for a friend
Thanks, the prior owners of my home tried to appeal the property taxes with no luck, probably because of how much money they paid for the home, but I expect they will not go down easily and I might have to go to Trenton.
True greatness Gary, true greatness!
https://twitter.com/daChipster/status/869916164239052800
Key positions in the Trump admin:
39 Confirmed
63 Formally nominated
15 Awaiting nomination
*442 No nominee*
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/database/
Redux
Russia probe scares off potential appointees
The growing scandal is giving some candidates cold feet — and distracting aides from finding new recruits.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/31/russia-investigation-trump-appointees-238954
Last time I heard a don’t recall like this Ollie North was on the stand.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/26/jared-kushner-russian-contacts-238877
Whats the over/under of Trump vs Reagan. Ronnie clocked in with 138 investigated, indited and/or convicted.
#TrueGreatness
Why rent when you can buy!
http://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/obamas-purchase-washington-dc-rental
File this under either
#NoSh1tSherlock or #GreatnessGary
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jared-kushner-donald-trump-lied-base-stupid-voters-supporters-president-son-in-law-white-house-a7764791.html
If the Dems don’t figure out how to beat morons, Kushner might very well be the next president.
If the Republicans don’t stop nominating them in the primaries, you might have a point.
I thought single family homes for personal use shouldn’t be viewed as an investment?
“Wrong. Price will go down when all the smart families take their profits and leave because they realize that stupid families are paying too much for houses in their town. “
Exactly right, but only smart people get that. Put down 40%, get a mortgage you can pay with 1 income and you’ll never have any worries when it comes to the liquidity of your home and your ability to leave it easily at any time.
I thought single family homes for personal use shouldn’t be viewed as an investment?
^^^And if lemmings come streaming into town to gift you a profit you never planned on receiving….take it.
Jared Kushner must be one of the least popular guys in politics. Most Republicans don’t like him because he’s an entitled Democrat who only has a seat at the table due to marrying Ivanka, who also pushes leftist causes on the president. And Democrats hate Kushner because anything associated with Trump must be destroyed. If they wanted to get their policies enacted, they should praise Kushner and Ivanka like crazy.
My new folio
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