From the Star Ledger:
Race, riots and reputation: Has N.J.’s largest city recovered?
To this day, you look at so many of the abandoned buildings, the light manufacturing, the old jewelry business, you walk around downtown, you still see the old, faded, painted signs on the buildings — and it harkens back to a different time.[1]
But it definitely seems to me to be a very different kind of attitude right now about Newark. [2]
As the image of Newark as “riot city” recedes into the background, people are beginning to see that there’s some assets here that they can take advantage of. [3]
The question is, how does Newark brand itself? How does it portray itself in terms of remaking its image?[4]
To some extent, it depends on whom we are talking to. If you are talking to some suburbanites who have very little contact with Newark, Newark is still this crime-ridden, disease-ridden place.
People who have some contact with Newark have a more nuanced view. They see pockets where Newark has come back. They do see some neighborhoods that are, in fact, stable. [5] Perception is often more important than reality, people’s perceptions was what happened in 1967. [1]
This taxi cab driver being brutalized by the police — people just decided to revolt. [6] And then eventually it broke out into something much bigger: A full fledged riot.
People out of control and setting fire to everything they could. [7] The stores, the windows, the glasses being kind of shattered or broken. Debris all over, stores looted out, emptied. [4]
There were three police forces here, we had the local police, the National Guard and we had the state police. [3] Cops back and forth. Firefighters. Chaotic, chaotic. And hearing gunfire, that was the thing that sticks with you most, is hearing “pop, pop, pop.” You know it’s not firecrackers, those are shots. And then you saw your city, the city that you love, going up in flames. [8]
Everybody knew where Newark was because of the riots. [9] Part of the stigma attached to Newark comes from that, from wanting to see the riot as the cause of all of the urban decline when in fact, you had these issues before. [5]
Newark is a great location.
Fab,
I see the Russian thing much like Bridgegate. You have Putin trying to gain some leverage on negotiations with Trump by attempting to alter the election results in Trump’s favor. Much as Christie did not shut down the GWB, chances are, Trump was not aware of Putin’s plans until after the deed was done. In both cases, people will go to jail, but it won’t be Trump or Christie. Ultimately, there is nothing the US can do about another countries meddling with elections if all they did is spread lies (propaganda) on social media. Quite frankly, that’s pretty much the same thing that all of the candidates do today (I will not be beholden to Wall Street…right?). It’s up to the public to determine what’s real and what’s fluff. And the elitist left can’t stand it because they are powerless to discredit this fluff. So how does the left win? I would say, by being honest for a change and taking the high road. The Dem’s had this election easy. HRC, unlike Obama, happily accepted PAC money and big business donations. She made it way too easy for the fluffy lies to gain a life of their own.
What irks me more than anything though, is the left’s depiction of Russia today as the evil Soviets of fifty year’s ago. Heck, you can hop on a plane this afternoon to Moscow no problem. This isn’t your father’s USSR.
Winning:
New Jersey: Least Fiscally Sound State in U.S.
New Jersey struggled while Florida soared to the top of a new set of state fiscal health rankings.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2017-07-11/new-jersey-least-fiscally-sound-state-in-us
Gen Z nothing like millennials, prof warns liberals
http://www.campusreform.org/?ID=9416
A political science professor in Pennsylvania says Democrats need to worry, because the generation replacing their millennial allies on college campuses has a distinct libertarian streak.
Jeff Brauer, a professor at Keystone College, has been gathering data on “Generation Z,” and recently told The New York Post that he expects the rising generation of college students to differ markedly from those currently dominating campus culture.
“Gen Z’s inclinations generally fit moderate Republicans.”
“Politically, Generation Z is liberal-moderate with social issues, like support for marriage equality and civil rights, and moderate-conservative with fiscal and security issues,” Brauer said. “While many are not connected to the two major parties and lean independent, Gen Z’s inclinations generally fit moderate Republicans.”
Notably, Brauer’s research has indicated that growing up in an age of constant terror threats, school shootings, and economic instability has led Gen Z to prize economic stability and security more highly than millennials.
[RELATED:POLL: 1/3 of millennials say ‘safe spaces’ ‘absolutely necessary’]
“Pollsters need to pay attention to Gen Z. People and politicians need to recognize that they aren’t millennials and shouldn’t be lumped in,” Brauer told Campus Reform, noting that “there was virtually no attention paid to this demographic” in 2016, even though it was the first presidential election in which Gen Z had the ability to vote.
“Democratic candidates lost five percent of the youth vote nationally (down from 60 percent to 55 percent),” Brauer pointed out. “In Florida, Democrats’ margin of victory among the young dropped 16 percentage points. In both Ohio and Pennsylvania, the drop was 19 points. In Wisconsin, 20 points.”
Brauer believes that this is indicative of more than a one-time phenomenon, saying “it is much more likely the precipitous drops were due to the more conservative Generation Z being able, for the first time, to express their political inclinations, especially in the economically hard-hit swing states.”
These findings could give Republicans hope for capturing a larger share of the youth vote in future elections, but Brauer cautions that while Generation Z will likely be more conservative than Millennials, they will not actively seek out the GOP unless the Party takes steps to conform to their more-moderate social views, and could be driven away by a significant rightward lurch.
“This generation is different, and they are about to have a profound impact on commerce, politics, and trends,” Brauer said. “If politicians and business leaders aren’t paying attention yet, they better, because they are about to change the world.”
Brauer cautioned that his work remains unfinished, saying he hopes to continue collecting data over the course of the next few election cycles in order to come up with even more definitive conclusions regarding Generation Z.
According to Forbes (2015), the generation after Millennials, Generation Z, made up 25%[36][37] of the U.S. population, making them a larger cohort than the Baby Boomers or Millennials.[36] Frank N. Magid Associates estimates that in the United States, 55% of Generation Z are non-Hispanic Caucasians, 24% are Hispanic, 14% are African-American, 4% are Asian, and 4% are multiracial or other.[38]
D-
NJ is in deep doodoo. Murphy claims he’ll make the pensions whole! Get ready for bankruptcy folks.
My prediction is that Trump will get much higher vote totals in 2020 in Blue states, particularly California and NY. Not enough to carry the states, but I just can’t imagine there aren’t a lot of regular people silently watching while skinny jerk-offs dressed like wannabe ISIS fighters starting fires and breaking windows, and then thinking to themselves ….“Yeah…not my party anymore.”
I just don’t understand how thus gen Z will be bigger than the baby boomer generation since millenials ate having kids later and only one or two. Also if gem Z are the millenials kids how are any of them in or close to being in college yet? Just ssying.
Now that in Red states you can say out loud that you support a different party and don’t hate white men, in NY, CA, Seattle, Portland, etc. that same demographic who might support Trump has to not only do it silently, but also invisibly and it will show up who they are in the next election. If we ever moved away from a private ballot in this country the Republican party would be instantly extinct.
It won’t pan out, large percentages will be killed walking across the street while texting…by drivers who are also texting.
I just don’t understand how thus gen Z will be bigger than the baby boomer generation
…or self driving cars…that are also texting to other self driving cars as the singularity becomes tangible.
Except for rare individuals like grim, I don’t think most individuals from generations after boomers can navigate everyday life unless a boomer helps them or does it for them.
Self-driving car road rage should be hilarious.
I would love to see the internet go down for a week or two. All I would need is popcorn.
Are self driving cars smart enough to choose a snow covered lane on the Long Island Expressway instead of the two tire tracks that are black ice?
NRG up 20% today. I would love to tell you why, but I can’t get it through the blacklist. Google it (I love the irony).
I wouldn’t touch that stock with someone elses money even.
I bought about 16 utilities early in the year, never looked at the crap-ass dividend or really anything else except momentum, (MACD, Stochastics, 30 week(not day) moving average). Then after a couple months I asked myself, why the hell would anyone own this piece of crap? I held it because I figured it had to be a takeover target or something (And I made HUGE money last year with two utilities that way). I’ll probably sell it today.
I would get out right now. :P
My Pricel1ne is about to breakout again. In at 990 early February of 2016. About to crack through 2K. Still waiting on my Air Lease to explode. It will.
That statistic is from here…referencing US Census data…in case you doubt it.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathryndill/2015/11/06/7-things-employers-should-know-about-the-gen-z-workforce/#7f015d2efad7
3b says:
July 12, 2017 at 12:21 pm
I just don’t understand how thus gen Z will be bigger than the baby boomer generation since millenials ate having kids later and only one or two. Also if gem Z are the millenials kids how are any of them in or close to being in college yet? Just ssying.
Also Gen Z parents are mostly have Gen X parents….although some have millennial parents.
sorry meant to say Gen Z children have mostly Gen X parents.
XYZ-PDQ
This will be Grim in 20 years.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/anheuser-busch-heir-loaded-guns-dogs-chopper-article-1.3320711
D fens not saying I doubt it. Gen x had the millennial. The oldest I assume are mid 30s. They are just having kids now so how are we up to college at this point?
Stu – I couldn’t find a flaw in your logic, so…
(Boy, I’m going to miss that $19.50 quarterly dividend;-)
07/12/2017 13:31:45 Sold 650 NRG @ 19.595 12,729.51
Millenial parents are mostly baby boomers.
3b says:
July 12, 2017 at 1:31 pm
D fens not saying I doubt it. Gen x had the millennial. The oldest I assume are mid 30s. They are just having kids now so how are we up to college at this point?
Again, Gen Z kids have mostly Gen X parents. Millenials…have mostly Boomer parents. I think your timing is off.
Z is born generally from mid 1990’s to early 2000’s. That puts their parents in the X generation.
If you have minor kids only one thing matters. That the tuition bubble pops before you have to pony up.
I don’t blame Millenials for being pissed off about tuition. The cost of housing pissed me off when I needed one. I’m hopeful for Gen Z.
Actually, I think we are in something like late 2005-early 2006 if you liken the tuition bubble to the housing bubble. AFAIK EVERYBODY gets money now. So you have “List Price” tuition and “Actual Price” tuition. Parents are being cajoled with the satisfaction of thinking “Dartmouth loves Graydon so much that they are actually paying us to have the pleasure of his company and Datmouth is being very smart because when Graydon goes to work at Goldman Sachs he’ll probably make some very nice donations back to the schoo.” Idiots, they just don’t know it yet.
Winning…for someone anyway.
The Monmouth University Poll, released Wednesday, found 53 percent of Garden State voters would choose Murphy, a former U.S. ambassador to Germany, while 26 percent would pick Guadagno, the state’s lieutenant governor.
Six percent would select an independent candidate and 14 percent are undecided, according to the survey, which comes with less than six months to go before Election Day on Nov. 7.
The poll also shows that reducing New Jersey’s property taxes — the highest in the U.S. — is the top priority for the state’s voters this election year, in which all 120 seats in the state Legislature are also on the ballot.
XP – NRG’s sell-off plan sounds like the first steps in bankruptcy avoidance. I would expect that 20% pop to be lost over the next week or two. You just got a gift horse. I have a feeling a Chinese lessor company is going to try to buy Air Lease and I’m gonna be pissed. But I’ll take the easy gain if and when it happens.
“The poll also shows that reducing New Jersey’s property taxes — the highest in the U.S. — is the top priority for the state’s voters this election year, ”
And we’re gonna make that pension and healthcare liability whole too.
1977 – $2600 annually to attend Rutgers, including dorm and 19 meal plan. Books: $100 per semester.
Summer job – $4 per hour times 40 hours times 12 weeks = $1920 annually.
1981 – Starting salaries
Engineering – $24,000
Everything else – $14,000 – $20,000
I can’t believe that people have lost sight over time that a starting professional salary used to FAR EXCEED the total cost of a college education and that kids started out with Zero Loans!.
I had some friends at Rutgers who had smart parents that made them take out loans. They were interest deferred and you could park it in a CD for 10-13%. Those smart parents paid off the loans at graduation and gave the interest to their kids as a graduation present which usually paid for their first BRAND NEW car! I tried to talk my parents into it, but they were adamant. “No! No! You are going to graduate with no loans!”
These guys are master propagandists at protecting their wealth in fossil fuels. Going to try and create the same divisiveness with electric cars that they did with global warming. Of course their answer is always more fossil fuels…
Koch Brothers Launch Attack to Kill Electric Cars – EcoWatch
https://apple.news/A-ueasjClSiyd8EtW7s4EmA
Thanks for the analysis Stu. My FIL taught me your second sentence a long time ago: “You know what happens to gaps, right? They get filled.”
XP – NRG’s sell-off plan sounds like the first steps in bankruptcy avoidance. I would expect that 20% pop to be lost over the next week or two.
Are you serious? It’s such a dumb statement that it doesn’t even deserve more than a one sentence acknowledgement.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
July 12, 2017 at 12:33 pm
Except for rare individuals like grim, I don’t think most individuals from generations after boomers can navigate everyday life unless a boomer helps them or does it for them.
You, along with pumpkin, use it an awful lot too.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
July 12, 2017 at 12:34 pm
I would love to see the internet go down for a week or two. All I would need is popcorn.
Would love to go pour some chemicals in the backyards where their kids and grandkids play. Would love to make them drink the water they pollute. So greedy, they truly do not give a damn about the planet we all share.
BTW, I’m not usually so willy-nilly about buying up a sector…except when it really, really heats up and the fire has just been lit. I was buying utilities hand over fist for that reason. When I exhaust the S&P 500 for what I’m looking for I will even move on to the MidCap 400. I expect to have some losers in there but it matters little in the aggregate. I would rather have 11 winners and 5 losers than try to pick the best 3 (which I ultimately own anyway). I probably invest about 3 hours a day analyzing sectors, almost no time analyzing stocks.
We need more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to grow trees and farm crops. Without it we might starve. Do your part and buy a gasoline engine please….for the children.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 12, 2017 at 2:05 pm
These guys are master propagandists at protecting their wealth in fossil fuels. Going to try and create the same divisiveness with electric cars that they did with global warming. Of course their answer is always more fossil fuels…
Koch Brothers Launch Attack to Kill Electric Cars – EcoWatch
https://apple.news/A-ueasjClSiyd8EtW7s4EmA
D, you are such a team player.
BTW, MidCap 400 is quite a bit dicier. The Consumer Staples sector in the MidCap has almost zero correlation to the S&P 500 Staples. That’s the worst of the correlation between sectors, the others are not great, but of varying degrees of not great.
Dfens I got it now.
I should have patented my low cost carbon dioxide delivery system when I used to grow pot plants. I couldn’t afford a commercial CO2 tank and what goes with it so I came up with a simple and cheap alternative.
1. Buy 1 liter bottles of cheap seltzer water (pure carbonated water, not club soda, club soda has salts).
2. Don’t open the bottle, instead take a small sharp object and pierce a small hole near the neck of the bottle.
3. Shake the bottle and atomize your female plants with a rich CO2 mist.
If you ever doubted that plants are live and cognizant watch their reaction when you get them high this way.
Except many of these parents are not paying the tuition they co signed loans. But they tell you they paid than then they forget to tell you they paid and well on and on. I can’t tell you how much lies and BS we heard from parents about colleges.
^^^BTW, that was in Wayne, NJ. Where else can you feel safe producing illegal drugs and still be so close to the new mall by Giants stadium?
College can be cheaper. Two year community than finish at a state school. Live at home and commute. Take the BS courses online during winter or summer break. Go to 4 year state school usually cheaper. But all of this means other parents friends and neighbors will talk. And that can’t be in the land of suburbia.
High taxes are a sign of NJ greatness!! Who are these people complaining!!
LOL – And the double down is that the kids can use their own signature to take out more loans (and put instant cash in their pockets, which is why they do it), without telling their parents. Parents are lying, kids are lying and they end up sheltering in place together from the debt.
Except many of these parents are not paying the tuition they co signed loans. But they tell you they paid than then they forget to tell you they paid and well on and on. I can’t tell you how much lies and BS we heard from parents about colleges.
3b – I have a friend who has 4 kids, all of them 2 years apart. Even before the first one graduated HS he told me he couldn’t think of any other option that made sense.
College can be cheaper. Two year community than finish at a state school. Live at home and commute.
I am the oldest of 5. I went to Rutgers and so did my sister two years younger when it was still a good deal (though I graduated from FDU, but I paid for it myself). My next 3 siblings skipped Rutgers and went for cheaper options in other states. One graduated from Perdue and the last two graduated from WVU.
My sister who graduated from Rutgers had a lost semester at Bloomsburg. Everybody partied there apparently…except her. She came home and did a semester at County College of Morris and then transferred to Rutgers.
Ex nothing wrong with that. We had the resources to pay our kids tuition in full no loans. And by pay I mean wrote the checks did the installment plan by 1/3s for each kid. The deal was state school paid in full. If you want out of state or private you pay the difference and B or better. They took the deal. One went to business school company paid for a chunk of that. The others are working good jobs in their fields one contemplating business school the other no interest. And they all had summer jobs throughout high school and college. And none of them did the stupid unpaid internship nonsense. That in my mind is .criminal. after your first job no one cares where you went to school. And speaking of summer jobs I can’t tell you how many I interviewed who at 22/23 never worked!
Here’s a cautionary tale. My Mom and her only sibling, my 6 years older uncle both worked hard through HS. In those days you handed your pay (it wasn’t even a check, it was cash in an envelope) to your parents and they gave you back an “allowance” out of your own income. This is central PA, coal mining country. My uncle joined the Marines when he was 18, never saw action, had a great old time in the Carolinas. When it was time to re-up they didn’t even want him back because he was such a schemer that he took years of classes to be trained as an aircraft mechanic and then never worked as one. He got in good with some officer and managed a night staff in the Kitchen which was a no show job where he only had to show up at the beginning of the shift and give the other guys tasks to complete. He left the service and used the GI Bill to get a degree at University of Cincinnati. He became a Gym Teacher in Cedar Knolls for the rest of his career. He even got a master’s degree to boost his pay while taught. He was a fun guy, an alcoholic, and just a dominant, abusive guy. Ex-marine turned gym teacher should tell you everything you need to know. Meanwhile, my Mom went to secretarial school and went to work. My Mom met my Dad, an engineering student going to school at night after serving in the Navy and they got married at 23. My uncle, 6 years older than my Mom got married the same year. My Mom and My Uncle both had 5 children in their respective families. Here’s where the story diverges. My uncle got his education, but he got it for himself and all he cared about was himself. Some of his kids flirted with college but none of them graduated. He married a waitress and neither of them cared a bit about moving their kids in any direction and guess what? They never ended up going in any direction. It’s not all their fault, they were both damaged goods. My Mom, on the other hand, had a force of will that was so strong that all of her kids would have the education that she never had the opportunity to receive. My parents had 3 of their 5 children and were in their second house before my Dad graduated with his engineering degree, so he was quiet example of what you could do sheer force of will too. So in the end you have two families of 7 each at about the same socio-economic level, all 10 kids have a common set of grandparents yet the children of the educated Uncle go on to have OK lives but bear the scars of early lives that were unsupported by their parents with no emphasis on education. All of us were very close in age, but I was the oldest by 6 months. My cousin who was closest in age to me died of Leukemia two months ago. Like her father, she was a hustler and got things done and made a good living, had children (also not college graduates) and grandchildren, but her life seemed very hard to me. Their side of the family didn’t even tell about it, I found out from a mutual friend the other day who emailed me urging me to promise that I don’t tell them how I found out because they don’t want us to know anything. Sad.
NRG – There was another dollar in there!
The best utility buy I ever made was last Spring, Pepco. I had a nice big position in XEL and I was on my way to meet a friend for lunch and noticed minutes before I walked out the door that I got stopped out of XEL (for a big win, but my stop was literally a penny too high, $38.41 IIRC). I was so pissed that I didn’t have big utility position anymore that I spent literally only 10 minutes searching and found Pepco (I needed to get to lunch!) I went in high 6 figures (twice!) in POM for a multi-year merger that Washington DC was thwarting at the very last minute. I read just a couple articles and realized it was all about payoffs. There was absolutely no way this deal wasn’t through because then nobody gets paid. They mayor of DC wanted more money but if it didn’t go through she was going to get bubkus, so I knew it was going to happen. I literally searched utilities, found this company, read two news stories, went in big and made over $50K in less than two weeks. A few weeks later I did the same thing with CNL, but this was even closer to a done deal. I went in 7 figures to make $5K in 10 days, which isn’t that exciting in outcome, but I never did a 7 figure deal before. I even put high 6 figures in after the deal was done to make a few pennies, as were lots of others. because you made more than a 13 week treasury in just a few days.
Paragraphs make that easier to digest, but good story.
Sesame Street (clot Edition):
Cops in Florida apparently found that C is for cocaine, too.
A Key West man was busted Wednesday when he was caught with more than 300 grams of cocaine hidden inside a Cookie Monster doll, according to the Monroe County Sheriff’s Office.
Camus McNair, 39, was pulled over just after midnight when a deputy spotted a black Dodge with its license plate obscured and windows tinted so dark that the deputy could not see inside.
McNair rolled down his window and the responding deputy could smell marijuana emanating from the vehicle, prompting a subsequent search of the car that turned up a backpack containing a blue Cookie Monster doll from the Sesame Street franchise.
The deputy then noticed that the doll weighed more than a typical stuffed animal. He then found a slit cut into the doll, which contained two packages totaling 314 grams of cocaine. Paperwork found inside the bag also indicated that it belonged to McNair, who was charged with cocaine trafficking, according to the Monroe County Sheriff’s Office.
McNair was charged with cocaine trafficking and drug equipment possession and remains held on $7,000 bond at a jail in Marathon, the Miami Herald reports.
I placed another big bet last week on the coal company ARLP again last week once it fell below $20. I’ve had a nice 7% pop since then but the thing is yielding near 9% right now and my bet is that they beat earnings and raise the dividend this month and then it pops big time again. Even if earnings are steady, I’m content to collect 9% annually.
WTF? Cocaine trafficking has becomes so mainstream that they have packing slips and/or invoices included with each shipment, or was the paperwork a credit card receipt for the doll??
The deputy then noticed that the doll weighed more than a typical stuffed animal. He then found a slit cut into the doll, which contained two packages totaling 314 grams of cocaine. Paperwork found inside the bag also indicated that it belonged to McNair, who was charged with cocaine trafficking, according to the Monroe County Sheriff’s Office.
BRT – YMMV, but:
1. ARLP is thinly traded, by my standards. If it doesn’t trade 500,000 shares a day you can expect some wide swings in the daily price, some of it engineered by market makers. I have big money in some ADRs that are just as thinly traded, but there are giant foreign companies behind them, so I’m not saying that you need to run away, just be aware.
2. High dividends are nice, but when you get up near 10% they can also be warning sign. I own CTL, so again, not “run away”, but rather “be aware”.
3. Energy is very, very weak sector right now. You can make a lot of money in a weak sector (I bought EQT less than a month ago and have 12% gains) but it’s much safer to have a weak value play as small exposure component of your portfolio rather than a mainstay.
4. Earnings – I don’t ever bet on them. ARLP is 19 calendar days away from their earnings announcement which is fine for me. I don’t ever buy or add inside of 15 days.
5. Technicals – On a weekly chart it looks horrible. On a daily chart ARLP is almost investable. I would like to see it above it’s 30 day moving average. I would have a stop around $19.73 if I took a flyer on this.
6. Earnings – OK, you have 4 earnings beats in a row, but that comes on the heels of 6 consecutive earnings misses.
7. Industry – Coal & Consumable Fuels – Uggghh. That’s about the bottom of the bottom right now, about 8th from the bottom out of 99 industries. On the plus side it was at the absolute bottom 9 weeks ago, so at least it has moved up 7 slots from the absolute basement.
As it stands now, I wouldn’t buy it and if I did I would rather buy it above $22.75 which would give you a lot more technical momentum and would probably coincide with the sector and industry moving up the ladder.
I placed another big bet last week on the coal company ARLP again last week once it fell below $20. I’ve had a nice 7% pop since then but the thing is yielding near 9% right now and my bet is that they beat earnings and raise the dividend this month and then it pops big time again. Even if earnings are steady, I’m content to collect 9% annually.
The whole thing that made it a strong play was the beating coal took. This is the strongest of the lot. I’ll stand by this bet. The same analysis would have kept me out of a 60 percent gain a year ago. It needs tolose 50 percent here for me to break even.
Btw…I’ve always loved buying into companies that are still profitable post price collapse.
Stock prices ALWAYS follow earnings. It may not seem that way for 3 or 6 months at a time. But if the earnings are going one way and the stock price is going the other way, run!
I only use Fundamental Analysis to determine which stocks to pick. With that said, about 95% of my decision is based on earnings versus stock price over the prior five years with a heavier weighting (of course) in the most recent four quarters. Then, I look at relative value. If current price is below the midpoint of the high/low P/E channel, back up the Honda Fit!
Republican won’t win in Jersey – please skip the election and save us all some money.
Still Living With the ‘Riot Effect,’ 50 Years Later
Arson and looting in the guise of protest made Newark and Detroit what they are today.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/still-living-with-the-riot-effect-50-years-later-1499812338
In Newark, N.J., July 17, 1967.
In Newark, N.J., July 17, 1967. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
By Jason L. Riley
July 11, 2017 6:32 p.m. ET
518 COMMENTS
Fifty years ago Wednesday a black taxi driver in Newark, N.J., named John Smith was stopped shortly after dusk by two white police officers for a traffic violation. The officers later said that Smith, who was driving with a suspended license, became profane and abusive. Bystanders countered that the cops physically attacked him without provocation. Smith suffered a broken rib during the encounter and was taken to the local precinct, charged with assault and resisting arrest, and put in a holding cell. But rumors spread quickly that he had been killed by the police.
Over the next four days, Newark experienced one of the worst riots in U.S. history, resulting in 26 deaths, more than 700 injured, nearly 1,500 arrests and damage to some 1,000 businesses. Subsequent journalistic accounts and government reports on the causes of the disorder would cite racism, segregation, economic distress, deindustrialization and police misconduct—the same explanations offered for more recent racial unrest in places like Ferguson Mo., and Baltimore. Those factors almost certainly have played a role, but they also don’t tell the whole story.
Recall that the Newark riots were preceded by those in the Watts section of Los Angeles two summers earlier, when 34 people died, 4,000 were arrested, and more than 1,000 stores were looted or seriously damaged. Yet Watts was no Newark. It was full of single-family homes, not housing projects. In the mid-1960s, the Los Angeles economy was expanding and blacks had access to good jobs. Just a year before Watts went up in flames, the National Urban League, a black civil-rights organization, released a survey of 68 cities in the U.S. where blacks were prospering. L.A. topped the list.
The 1967 Detroit riots, which began only a week after Newark’s ended, also complicate the popular explanations of economic deprivation and “black rage.” The black unemployment rate in Detroit at the time was 3.4%, lower than the jobless rate for whites nationally. The black poverty rate in Detroit was half that of blacks nationally, and the homeownership rate among blacks in the Motor City was one of the highest in the nation. The city had a large and growing black middle class and the smallest black-white income gap in the country.
Today’s black leaders and their liberal sympathizers in the media like to attribute a political consciousness to ghetto rioters, but a previous generation of black activists had a less romantic view. In his 1968 book, “The Unheavenly City,” Edward Banfield writes: “Most civil rights leaders dismissed the idea that the riots were conscious protests; that was not merely an after-the-fact rationalization, Kenneth B. Clark said, it was an ‘independent of the fact’ one.” Bayard Rustin saw more opportunism than activism on display in the rioting: “They riot either out of sheer cussedness or for criminal reasons, and in some instances because mob action seems to be taking on the aspects of a fad. . . . Bedevil the police, strip stores, shout and yell, crush anyone who opposes you . . . and if the police try to stop it, just yell ‘brutality.’ This is the pattern.”
That pattern persists today, and it’s countenanced by groups like Black Lives Matter, the media and others on the political left who lack the honesty and courage of a Bayard Rustin. They are not doing the black underclass any favors. The racial gap in average earnings among male workers was narrowing in the 1940s, ’50s and ’60s—even though racism was more prevalent and blacks had little political clout—but that trend has slowed significantly since 1970 as black males have left the labor force.
The economists William Collins of Vanderbilt University and Robert Margo of Boston University argued in a 2004 paper that black job prospects have been harmed since the 1970s by a “riot effect” that dates to the previous decade. The effect is not only felt in the immediate aftermath but can linger for decades. The riots had “negative effects on blacks’ income and employment that were economically significant and that may have been larger in the long run (1960-1980) than in the short run (1960-1970),” they wrote. “After a riot, firms and residents might revise their expectations of the benefits, costs, and risks of locating in or near a particular central-city neighborhood even if they were not directly affected by the riot.” In other words, Detroit and Chicago and other cities didn’t riot after the factory jobs left. The riots came first.
Inner-city residents have legitimate grievances today—the quality of public schools, for example—just as they did when Newark exploded a half-century ago. But arson and looting in the guise of protest is a form of self-sabotage that consigns yet another generation of blacks to society’s margins.
The vast majority of the stocks I buy have just hit a new 52 week high in the last 5 sessions and I automatically put a stop loss 3% below the 30 week moving average. Buy low/Sell high is more often than not a long and unprofitable journey, especially if you have a big portfolio to fill out. Buy high/sell higher works a lot better and I might find 5-15 stocks to buy in an accelerating sector so it diversifies the risk within the sector. Also I mostly trade IRA accounts so there is no such thing as capital gains, only income. 5 serial trades for 12% with the same money in a single year is the same as making 56% gain holding for a year inside an IRA. In a taxable account all the 12% trades would be short gains and taxed at a higher rate. I hold for years and years in my taxable accounts, but I still have stops. I’d rather have a short term gain than a long term loss.
I meant 4 serial trades for 12%, not 5.
Fake news battle.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C-hEKgyeSAg
D-Fens. That riot piece was interesting, to say the least. I tend to agree with it. Humans are sheeple
Buy low/Sell high is more often than not a long and unprofitable journey, especially if you have a big portfolio to fill out. Buy high/sell higher works a lot better and I might find 5-15 stocks to buy in an accelerating sector so it diversifies the risk within the sector.
I don’t have a big portfolio. And I don’t trade. I haven’t sold a stock in years. I’ve only bought this and 2 other things the past 2 years. I’m up 40% and earning 20% on my original purchase. If it works…it works, I don’t care how.
Every successful investor has their own way of doing things and if there’s never been one way to win in this game.
Yep, lotsa methods, only two rules.
1. Don’t let a small loss turn into a big loss.
2. Don’t let a win turn into a loss.
I think the mindset that most investors never internalize is this: You don’t have to make money on every trade, you just have to make money.