From CNBC:
Almost half of top US housing markets are ‘overvalued’
It will come as no surprise to anyone out house hunting today — buying a home is becoming ever more difficult to afford.
Prices just keep soaring while incomes fail to keep pace. Even historically low mortgage rates are not helping enough. At the end of July, of the top 50 markets, based on housing stock, 46 percent were overvalued, according to CoreLogic.
A market is considered overvalued when home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level. On the flip side, 16 percent of markets in the report were listed as undervalued and 38 percent came in fairly valued.
Home prices came in 6.7 percent higher in July, compared with the same month a year ago. A record-low supply of homes for sale keeps driving prices; the supply at the end of July was 9 percent lower compared with a year ago and has been shrinking steadily for nearly three years, according to the National Association of Realtors.
“Home prices in July continued to rise at a solid pace with no signs of slowing down,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The combination of steadily rising purchase demand along with very tight inventory of unsold homes should keep upward pressure on home prices for the remainder of this year. While mortgage interest rates remain low, affordability cracks are emerging.”
Price appreciation is strongest in the Pacific Northwest and in Denver, where some of the tech industry has migrated, ironically because Northern California housing became so expensive.
“The sharp increase in prices in Washington and Utah has been especially striking, with home price growth in both states accelerating by 3 percentage points since the beginning of this year,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic.
Even Las Vegas, where homes lost more than half their value during the housing crash, is now considered overvalued. Washington, D.C., Miami and Houston are also on that list, although Houston home values will surely be hit hard by Hurricane Harvey.
Good Morning New Jersey
Over 58,000 People Have Joined Together To Attempt To Re-Direct Hurricane Irma Using Fans
http://www.charlottestories.com/58000-people-joined-together-attempt-re-direct-hurricane-irma-using-fans/
In the the United States, buying a house is easier and cheaper than in all the similar countries – Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand. The best housing bargain on the planet is close-in New York City suburbs with train links to Manhattan. Lots of interesting lucrative jobs and reasonable house price. Njrereport complainers are just whiny little bitch dogs.
Toronto and Vancouver housing bubbles are epic.
Yo is pumpkin, right? I think his third or fourth personality state. What is the other Lurks?
Money ain’t got no owners. Only spenders
One more for Joyce.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093751.shtml?rainqpf#contents
NJ transit now sues the whistleblower.
this will eventually cost the taxpayers millions.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/nj_transit_sues_former_employee_who_called_agency.html#incart_river_mobile_home
Tried to get the most undervalued cities even from the core logic site. Not readily available, if anyone has please post. The 28 from the top 100 ideally. thx.
Looked at the surge maps. Hopefully boaters find the Keys and Miami floating somewhere next week and return them to Florida.
Toronto and Vancouver home prices are sustainable. People have been calling for Vancouver “bubble” to burst since 1980s – always wrong.
Good thing I haven’t bought any Florida real estate yet.
Surge in Miami will be nothing like Sandy. Surge depends on shallowness of ocean off the shore. Florida East Coast has a shelf. Southwest Florida (the Keys too) will be fukced way more than anything on the East Coast. East Coast should max at 7ft.
For example: http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/index.php?S=Irma2017&Adv=34&Ty=e10&Z=z4&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Help=about
Miami Beach elevation 3.9 feet above sea level.
Keep an eye out in a week or two for some modern art, hopefully not too water logged.
Surge also depends on atmo pressure and tide cycle? iirc sandy was a b!tch despite not even being hurricane level because she merged with another low before landfall and had atmo bars equivalent to a cat 5 during new moon cycle?
Don’t know how the bars measure up here but it is cat 4 and on last nights nfl broadcast they zoomed in on near full moon……
We’ll see. I trust the surge maps. If you recall, almost 3 nights before Sandy, the surge predictions called for 15 feet. Everyone ignored them (especially NJ Transit, as they were probably all out on FMLA) and they were dead accurate. I have no reason to believe they will not be accurate this time too. Flooding will occur for sure, but it won’t be like Sandy. Especially along the East as the track continues to look further West. The Eastern shore of Lake Okeechobee is completely screwed though.
Yo is pumpkin, right? I think his third or fourth personality state. What is the other Lurks?
Ex-Jersey
Money ain’t got no owners. Only spenders
“I’ll take any persons money if he giving it away”
– Clay Davis…and Senator Menendez
Can’t cut and paste but just pulled up a quick article you may find interesting stu on sandy and storms in general. Google David Briello November 2 2012 in scientific American. Talks surge, gives a source they consider best.
BRT
It’s all in the game
This article is tremendously insightful….
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-08-29/the-worst-case-scenario-for-passive-investing-part-ii
Gas levels have been back since Sunday in north Texas. Some stations still do not have 89 or 93 grade. Regular is around $2.69 which is 50 cents more than pre Harvey prices. Also our area seems to be almost back to normal traffic. It is not a vacation area so I suspect there were lots of temp evacuees staying with friends/family who have now returned to the coast.
Stu, if it comes up the middle, that means Key Largo, Homestead, and Miami get hit with the Northeast Quadrant, the worst wind and surge scenario.
Yup! I think it may go further West before it turns though. We’ll see. Parents are still planning to stay. I doubt they die. I do see them living miserably for a couple of weeks after though.
Possibly the best Hoboken condo development I have ever seen bar none….
http://thejordanhoboken.com/
Chi…not sure the author understands causation in that linked article. The main premise there is that index funds are stifling R&D since index fund (ETF) investors own both their company and their rivals. I would argue that one, companies don’t generate revenue or earnings through the public’s purchase of equity or the value of that equity. Two, earnings have been growing by squeezing labor mainly through automation and benefit cuts. It’s tough to invest in R&D while you are right-sizing regularly. Quite frankly, I don’t agree with the premise at all. People always invested in both Google and Apple. Whether one person own 100 shares of Google and another owns 100 shares of Apple is no different than two people owning 50 shares of each.
Hope that’s a play off of your name Chi.
Here are the first two reviews on Facebook.
Marlon Simpson
· February 2, 2017
Beautiful picture nice place to rise up your family
Jordan Santiago
· June 12, 2017
Fantástico, estupendo ,maravilloso lo recomiendo para todos los gustos
Stu: It’s just an academic paper, but note it describes several factors that are statistically significant…… it is not a black and white…..it is a spectrum of gray…and is not working in isolation, nor do they blame it entirely….
“But the bigger problem is not prices but innovation. If CEOs have an incentive not to compete, then they might not try all that hard to innovate, spending less on research and development.”
“They found only three factors that at least mathematically appeared to correlate with the drop in R&D. One was an increase in index investors.”
Yes, but executives are compensated with equity….. and spending on R&D will reduce the value of their compensation if sucha long-term focus is not rewarded proportionately with an increase in the stock price.
In essence, the index buyer is not discerning, so there is less motivation to behave in (otherwise more) competitive manner that will be rewarded.
Hillary’s Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:
September 8, 2017 at 11:29 am
I would argue that one, companies don’t generate revenue or earnings through the public’s purchase of equity or the value of that equity.
Yo is a hudson county real estate agent and likes to brag about predictions he never made. Where ya been the past 5+ years?
@tonyschwartz
Trump Jr. vetting Hillary Clinton’s “fitness” for office is like Bernie Madoff vetting Janet Yellen’s fitness to run Fed.
“In essence, the index buyer is not discerning, so there is less motivation to behave in (otherwise more) competitive manner that will be rewarded.”
I can buy this.
One more thing to point out CHI. I would argue that to some extent, the old, overpriced to manage mutual fund would have had the same result. No? Wonder if they looked at a chart comparing the drop in the use of mutual funds with the increase of sector or index ETFs?
Lololololol.
https://www.allergan.com/news/news/thomson-reuters/allergan-and-saint-regis-mohawk-tribe-announce-agr
Wonder how soon before they start selling passports.
Was this posted previously?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/opioid-use-explains-20-of-drop-in-american-men-from-labor-force
The same can be said when a few companies control an entire market….less motivation to compete, everyone is okay with their piece of the pie. The only time these companies get competitive is when they buy out their competition…..
“In essence, the index buyer is not discerning, so there is less motivation to behave in (otherwise more) competitive manner that will be rewarded.”
Been saying this for years on here. Couldn’t agree more.
Yo! says:
September 8, 2017 at 7:49 am
In the the United States, buying a house is easier and cheaper than in all the similar countries – Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand. The best housing bargain on the planet is close-in New York City suburbs with train links to Manhattan. Lots of interesting lucrative jobs and reasonable house price. Njrereport complainers are just whiny little bitch dogs.
Campbell’s Soup (jj Edition):
http://pagesix.com/2017/09/08/the-deuce-will-change-the-way-you-look-at-campbells-potato-soup/?_ga=2.150790453.268830865.1504791001-528079873.1502847369
If the Irma eye runs right up the Florida West coast, what are the surge and wind ramifications? My untrained weather eye is thinking that the the FL gulf coast sees more surge than they’ve ever seen? Is that correct?
Is it possible that Irma can pull up all the oil from the bottom of the gulf where Obama and BP sent it to Davy Jones locker?
Hoping all works out in Tampa. Storm would need to enter the gulf to have a surge on Tampa. or at least inland of tampa which is what Im concerned with.
Northeast has crappy weather and high taxes, but at least you will never have to evacuate your home……priceless.
It’s great that these areas in the south have cheaper taxes, but is it really worth it long term? Hell no.
Like yo alluded to yesterday, NYC suburbs are a crazy good value. You can get one of the highest paying jobs in America ( or open a business and have access to a sh!t load of customers with money to spend) and get a fabulous home for only 1 million with a great school system. And you never have to worry about some natural disaster destroying everything (including family photos and other personal items of priceless value that are lost to natural disasters).
We have it so good here, and all people do is bitch like there is something so much better out there.
Other areas with similar job opportunities, a million gets you a 1200 sq ft shack. NYC suburbs, you get at the minimum, a 3000 sq ft home. 3 times the value right there. So who gives a crap about the taxes when you are getting so much more value.
People have to look at the whole picture, not just a piece of it. Yes, taxes are higher, but think about the whole picture.
Chicagofinance 11:26 am, thank you for posting about NJ real estate, finally. What is your outlook for Hoboken condos?
Yo! says:
September 9, 2017 at 8:04 am
What is your outlook for Hoboken condos?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E
Tell that to the Sandy evacuees…
Northeast has crappy weather and high taxes, but at least you will never have to evacuate your home……priceless.
For Joyce.
Make sure all of your tail lights are working at all times.
http://video.newyorker.com/watch/conditioned-response
Pumpkin,
There are lots of nice lower cost of living areas in the US that have modern infrastructure, great schools, and don’t have the pension time bomb NJ has. If you work in an industry that is New York based like working in the front office for Wall Street or love going to NYC on the weekends than norther nj is the place for you otherwise relocating is a sane alternative.
And sandy didn’t just damage beach communities in New Jersey.
jj fanboy forget trying to convince pumps that there could possibly be other areas in this country that are good. They are all bad!! He is delusional.
Give me a break, no one told people to live on the water or in flood zones.
Phoenix says:
September 9, 2017 at 10:49 am
Tell that to the Sandy evacuees…
Northeast has crappy weather and high taxes, but at least you will never have to evacuate your home……priceless.
This not meant to be offensive, just pointing out problems in other areas.
Texas? How’s them fire ants? Most Texas home foundations are shot after 10 years. No thank you. That doesn’t even begin to address natural disasters and out of control development. Poorly planned communities and boat loads of losers showing up by the day because they heard how great it is from some article created to lure people to Texas. In 10-20 years, they will be dealing with bunch of problems from this population boom that came in such a short period of time.
Not saying there aren’t nice places in Texas. There are nice places in any state. It’s just the amount of losers you are surrounded by in these areas. It’s horrible. Sure, if you have the money to live in the “it” areas, you are sort of insulated from this, but the majority of areas suck.
JJ fanboy says:
September 9, 2017 at 12:16 pm
Pumpkin,
There are lots of nice lower cost of living areas in the US that have modern infrastructure, great schools, and don’t have the pension time bomb NJ has. If you work in an industry that is New York based like working in the front office for Wall Street or love going to NYC on the weekends than norther nj is the place for you otherwise relocating is a sane alternative.
And sandy didn’t just damage beach communities in New Jersey.
It’s like 3b pushing Utah. You really want to deal with Mormans? Really? Man, just because the place is nice on vacation doesn’t mean it’s a good place to live.
Pumps,
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others…..
“It’s just the amount of losers you are surrounded by in these areas. It’s horrible.”
Pumps,
Texas is going to need those “losers” to reconstruct the housing of the “winners.” Best get that done before the wall is built…
Pumps, here’s some Southern backwoods thinking for you. No PhD but they get the job done.
Arkadelphia, Arkansas firefighters use boat motor to put out fire.
Jason Hunt with the Arkadelphia Fire Department caught the makeshift contraption in work as well as several photos of the firefighters working to put out the fire.
http://www.thv11.com/news/local/arkadelphia-firefighters-help-houston-fire-department-put-out-structure-fire/469695766
List of web cams to view the action.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/watch_irma_florida_web_cams.html
Pumps
At the end of the game, the king and the pawn go back in the same box.
I have decided to respond to pumps with tv quotes.
This week is Omar little from The Wire
A mans gotta have a code
Northeast has crappy weather and high taxes, but at least you will never have to evacuate your home……priceless.
My friend who lived in Point Pleasant was out of his home for a year and a half after Sandy.
Forget my mom. Gator’s sister is staying on the 2nd floor of a dumpy apartment building in Pinellas Park. If the storm goes further west (which I still think it will), Tampa will experience a 10 ft storm surge. That entire area will make Houston during Harvey look like a brief sun shower.
BR,
If you didn’t live in a flood zone, sandy was not a major issue.
I don’t know what the purpose of life is, but I will do my best to separate myself from the losers. Can’t take people that have no self pride, and can’t pick themselves up under a capitalist system. Refuse to live amongst people that don’t have the energy to poss in a toilet, and instead piss in their bedroom like the dirtbags they are.
JJ fanboy says:
September 9, 2017 at 7:11 pm
Pumps
At the end of the game, the king and the pawn go back in the same box.
Pumps
The cheese stands alone
If you didn’t live in a flood zone, sandy was not a major issue.
I had no power for nearly two weeks, there was no gas, for at least 5 days it was chaos.
Almost all states in the south…..Florida #2. It’s opinion based, but if you look at any of these lists, it’s a common trend for a reason.
https://youtu.be/CmPfpjBjktI
Grim, it did hurt us, but nowhere to the extent that these other states experience natural disasters. Was your house in one piece? Did you even get any damage? Plus, how often will a storm like sandy happen? Almost no chance.
And now that everyone and their mother have a generator, that storm would not have the same impact if it hit again.
And you prove it every day with your words.
The Great Pumpkin says:
September 9, 2017 at 10:42 pm
I don’t know what the purpose of life is
Pumps, they just pissed on granny’s carpet to give you the finger. You can never separate yourself from losers while being a slumlord because 1) the tenants, and 2) someone who babbles on incessantly without learning anything and without self-defense of his deficiencies is himself “a loser”
Pumps,
Worrying about you is like wondering if the sun is gonna come up
Self-defense = self-awareness, auto-correct fail
We never see an analysis of the impact of Real Estate Taxes on Affordability.
In places like CA and NJ, it’s not uncommon to pay outrageous sums of money on RE taxes. For example, it’s common to spend between $10K and $25K per year in RE taxes in many areas of NJ. For most people taxes are almost as high as mortgages! How can young adults possibly afford to invest in homes?
Was hoping Njescapee would post something
Pumps when did I push Utah? I pointed out that it was a well run state. And it is. And you are a bigot too!
We had no power for a week and were not in a flood zone.
Pumps all those red neck losers in Texas who are risking their lives to rescue people and help any way they can? And you call them losers. You claim you are a compassionate liberal but you are a closet bigot like so many others who claim they are liberals.
2 weeks without power. Stood on a gas line for 3 hours to get 10 gallons of gas. Almost had to settle for 5 gallons as one of my cans was blue in color.
Boston and San Fran – make sure you live at 150 feet above sea level with underground utilities and you are pretty good to go.
I have a little customizable weather app on my iPad. What I’m finding the most interesting is only activating the 1. Sattelite (so you can see the eye) and 2. Wind level overlays (highest wind speed areas in pink. A couple hours ago Key West was the only “pink” zone. Now it is Everglades, Marco Island to Naples.
My guess is there might be significant storm surge at 58 Bahama Circle in Tampa (Derek Jeter’s mega-mansion).
Will Irma temporarily eradicate Zika? Where do mosquitos shelter in place?
If you didn’t live in a flood zone, sandy was not a major issue.
Incorrect. The Morris County/Basking Ridge area was completely decimated with every single telephone pole being taken out. Beyond that, the forests to this day still look like a bomb went off inside of them. I would have told you to quit while you were ahead, but you were never ahead.
Pumpkin is such a douche bag with emphasis on douche…and bag.
Pumpkin doesn’t have lot of mental ability to begin with. Add in the exhaust fumes from the racetrack adjacent to his house and…
The way pumpkin supports the teachers in NJ one might think he may be married to one and enjoying the benefits…
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I was not putting down individuals that actually do something. I’m bashing the legions of losers that do absolutely nothing with their lives. Do you know how bad some of these areas are in Texas? Mine as well be a deadbeat town in Mexico, not much of a difference.
3b says:
September 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm
Pumps all those red neck losers in Texas who are risking their lives to rescue people and help any way they can? And you call them losers. You claim you are a compassionate liberal but you are a closet bigot like so many others who claim they are liberals.
Okay, what are the chances of a storm like that happening again? You rail against climate change on the basis that humans have no impact, but are acting like nj is a dangerous place when it comes to natural disasters? Quit the bs. There are homes in nj that have been standing since the 1700’s.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
September 10, 2017 at 2:06 pm
If you didn’t live in a flood zone, sandy was not a major issue.
Incorrect. The Morris County/Basking Ridge area was completely decimated with every single telephone pole being taken out. Beyond that, the forests to this day still look like a bomb went off inside of them. I would have told you to quit while you were ahead, but you were never ahead.
Says the president of the “haters club.”
The Original NJ ExPat says:
September 10, 2017 at 2:11 pm
Pumpkin is such a douche bag with emphasis on douche…and bag.
3b, you are the type to claim your blue ribbon town is going down because Mexicans have come to town. A little tip, Texas is little Mexico.
I just can’t stand the bigots who have already had their children run through the school system and then decide teachers get paid too much because they want lower taxes. GTFO of here. Not ruining the education system in this state because some bigot doesn’t see the value in education to this state’s economy and life. Why is that a problem that I see a value in education? I like what it attracts. I don’t want to turn into methhead Florida.
Phoenix says:
September 10, 2017 at 3:44 pm
The way pumpkin supports the teachers in NJ one might think he may be married to one and enjoying the benefits…
Go ahead, let’s turn this education system into Carolina or Florida, see the great long term benefits of that cost saving move. All I can say, better start trying to attract retirees, no family with a decent head on their shoulders wants to raise their kid in that sh!t.
Pumps
You’ve confused me with a man who repeats himself
And nj is a paradise with no ghettoes or violent crime.
Nj has it, but it’s very isolated. Other states, its more spread out, so unless you are dropping a million or more, you will be living amongst nj ghetto type people.
My heart goes out to the hard working in the ghetto. My family was poor, came to this country with not much. So I have respect for hard working poor. I will those kind of people in any way I can. I have no respect for the poor that have given up and have their hand out. Life is about surviving, and there is nothing about surviving that comes with your hand out. These dirt bags are so lazy, they deficate in their own bedrooms because they don’t have the will power to go use the bathroom. Look at their streets, they throw garbage all over it, no respect, being poor doesn’t mean you have to live like a dirtbag. These losers give the hardworking poor a bad name. I will never support these losers or choose to live amongst them.
Remember, these losers ruin their neighborhoods and schools for everyone else. Why would you want to live anywhere close to them? Are you insane?
“The danger is that this low-inflation consensus has grown far too strong, on too little evidence. Sure, inflation has been weaker than economic models predicted for a long time. But without a decent explanation for why, forecasts of low inflation look like a classic case of recency bias, the tendency to look to the recent past for guidance.”
Three Dangerous Words for an Investor: Inflation Is Dead – The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AGvE-A3S9QbKoNiPKH4wrsg
Pumps – you are doing your part by adding the product of your inferior gene pool to the public schools. Maybe consider home schooling? Oh, that’s right. Nobody home.
Hahahahahahahahaha
Go ahead, let’s turn this education system into Carolina or Florida