From the Chicago Tribune:
As Fed raises rates, look for higher costs on credit cards, car loans and home mortgages
Americans are taking on more debt, and they’re soon going to be paying more for it.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate, citing an improving economy, low unemployment and rising wages. The move will affect millions of Americans by making it more expensive to borrow money, whether that’s in the form of credit card balances, car loans or some home mortgages.
This may mean the time is ripe to make a big purchase before interest rates go higher. The Fed already has promised two additional rate hikes this year and more in 2019 as its benchmark federal funds rate climbs from historic lows during the Great Recession.
But there’s also a silver lining for savers: Because interest rates have been low for years, it’s been tough to gain much extra ground in the form of interest when stashing away cash in savings accounts. The Fed’s move will make it easier to accrue interest on a nest egg or rainy day fund.
…
You’ll probably see the first sign of rising interest rates on your credit card bill within a few weeks, said Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist for loan comparison site LendingTree. That’s because credit card companies generally offer variable interest rates that are adjusted in real time according to the prime rate, or the interest rate charged by most major banks to their corporate customers. The federal funds rate and the prime rate are tightly linked, and as one goes, so the other tends to go.
…
Home equity loans and auto loans with adjustable rates — most likely those made with a lender outside of the automaker — will begin to see higher rates next, Kapfidze said. Personal loan providers will soon catch up as well. That’s why this is a a critical time to shop around for the best interest rate on any debt you can, he said, especially with rates set to go even higher later this year.
From CNBC:
Homebuyers are not bothered by higher rates or taxes, but sellers are
Home sales rebounded more strongly than expected in February, and the National Association of Realtors says they could have been even higher if there were more homes for sale.
A critical shortage of listings is the No. 1 obstacle, especially in higher price ranges — not rising mortgage rates or new tax laws that reduce certain homeowner deductions.
In fact, homes sales in the West, where prices are highest, jumped more than 11 percent for the month, and the higher end of the market was very active. Nationally, sales of homes priced above $750,000 were up nearly 19 percent from a year ago. New tax laws limit the mortgage interest deduction. Borrowers can now deduct interest paid on up to $750,000 in mortgage debt. Previously, the limit was $1 million in mortgage debt.
Sales at the lowest end of the market, however, homes priced under $100,000, were down 16.5 percent compared with a year ago.
That is the range where the supply shortage is worst.
Home sales did fall sharply in the Northeast, where property taxes are very high in some states, but the Realtors say that was more due to horrendous weather than anything else.
Realtors polled for the monthly survey said they are hearing very few concerns from buyers about rising mortgage rates or the new tax laws, even fewer concerns than in December, when the tax laws were in final debate. That is not the case for potential sellers.
“The one concerning trend is the interest rate lock effect,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR. Sellers are telling agents increasingly that they do not want to move because they will lose the record-low mortgage rate they have locked in.
We have barely a dusting of snow on the sidewalk, absolutely nothing on the street. Boston decided today is a snow day 12+ hours ago.
So credit card interest rates are going to go even higher than 18-24% for
regularstupid people?As Fed raises rates, look for higher costs on credit cards, car loans and home mortgages
From HousingWire:
This is why Millennials have yet to flood housing market
Freddie Mac’s latest report examines the young adult generation, Millennials, or those born from about 1980 to 1994. With the youngest Millennial turning 24 this year, many are beginning to wonder what’s keeping the largest generation since the Baby Boomers from entering the housing market, and what will happen when they do.
As of 2016, there were about 45 million young adults aged 25 to 34 in the U.S., which is four million more than those aged 35 to 44, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Freddie Mac explained that a population of this size should be fueling the housing market. There’s just one minor problem.
The headship rate.
The headship rate, or percentage of those heading a household, among young adults age 25 to 36 was down 3.6 percentage points in 2016 compared to 2000. If Millennials formed households at the same rate seen in 2000, this could have resulted in 1.6 million additional households in 2016.
But while household formations, or the lack thereof, could seem to be holding Millennials back from entering the home buying market, Freddie Mac suggested it could actually be the other way around. The GSE’s research indicates the two biggest factors explaining the decrease in household formation rates are housing costs and labor market outcomes.
…
“We expect that as life progresses and today’s young adults age, they will add around 20 million households to the U.S. economy, driving housing demand over the next decade,” said Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist. “But, housing costs are a major factor holding back young adult household formations.”
We have barely a dusting of snow on the sidewalk, absolutely nothing on the street. Boston decided today is a snow day 12+ hours ago.
All in, looks like about 5-6 in North Jersey. Kids could have went to school yesterday for sure, half day, most would have been out before the roads started turning white.
I think it was almost 30 years ago that I wrote a slick program for a Chicago Used Car dealership. It showed the buyer, screen by screen, all of the benefits they were getting by buying this car at a usurious interest rate. The purpose was to up-sell buyers on lots of crap they didn’t need. I questioned the guy who commissioned me as to whether customers would buy into this, given the interest rates they were charging, even before all of the up-sells of services. He told me something I never forgot: “Only two things matter. The presentation and the payments. The presentation gets you the sale. The payments are irrelevant, so long as they think they can make next month’s payment.”
In other words, the term length of the loan counted for zero to his brand of consumers.
Not related to my work, but I heard something funny in related work on the West Coast. In the early days of digital cameras they used to offer to take a picture of new car purchasers in front of their new purchase. Printed out the picture and handed it to the proud new “owner” while shaking his hand. They also made a duplicate set of keys and handed both the picture of the gang-banger who bought the car and the keys to the repo guy when it came time several months later.
I would suspect a major driver in the lengthening of car loans is increased reliability of cars, and the extension in the timeline of new model releases vs minor updates. The other consideration is the longer ownership length driven by the recession (people getting used to owning cars for longer). Lastly, incredibly low purchase rates on long agreements takes the edge off. In summary, with a new Honda easily lasting 10 years, and something like 5-7 years between material model refreshes, and the fact your neighbor has been driving the same car for 9 years now, why not.
Idiots though, are people who pay off their car loans by refinancing their mortgages. Nothing like paying 30 years for a car you’ll own for 7.
Ironically, for up here, we received robo-calls the night before last telling us that they would have school on Wednesday, but after school events were cancelled because of the weather. That was a good call. They cancelled out that good call by calling at the same time last night saying that today schools were closed.
In Boston, it’s a little different, though. Most of the bus drivers don’t even have cars of their own, they need dependable public transportation to get to the bus lots. School is cancelled, I think, based on the probability of how many school bus drivers will show up in adverse conditions. I really don’t blame them. If you drove a school bus (and I did, while finishing up college) wouldn’t you naturally pick your sick days judiciously on the most difficult travel days when you might have to work several extra hours and possibly have an accident? Keep in mind that the public transportation workers are also likely to call in sick, further impacting the school bus drivers.
All in, looks like about 5-6 in North Jersey. Kids could have went to school yesterday for sure, half day, most would have been out before the roads started turning white.
Yep. I remember you posting this previously grim, I never really thought about it before, but you are entirely correct. I never thought long and hard about it because my wife and I are of a like mind. We each had one car in our early 20’s where we paid off a loan (me in one year, her in two years, well before we knew each other). We’ve been cash buyers ever since, with the exception of one 42 month lease that was a bargain.
Idiots though, are people who pay off their car loans by refinancing their mortgages. Nothing like paying 30 years for a car you’ll own for 7.
I admit that I wasn’t bright enough 20 years ago to think that taking a second mortgage to buy a car wasn’t really a bad idea. Deductible interest versus non-deductible interest, I thought. I was wrong.
The snow is really coming down now. We’re getting close to 1/4″ on the driveway. Nothing in the street so far.
Has anyone seen this movie yet? I haven’t but I’d like to. How crazy is it that they needed a fat Australian girl to play a fat New Jersey girl? Did New Jersey run out of fat girls?
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6288250/?ref_=nv_sr_1
More specifically, Fat Australian rapper with a fake New Jersey accent, because there are no authentic Fat New Jersey girls who can rap?
What the hell is going on? The Walking Dead seems like it is all UK actors? If they re-made the Sopranos today would the new Tony be someone classically trained from the British countryside? Fuhgedaboutit becomes, “No thank you, I have already had my fill of scones!”
Our two car loans were 0% interest. I would have stretched them out for as long as I could, but then the collision and comprehensive would have acted much like PMI as I would have had to keep paying for it until the loan was paid off. I remove them both the moment the loan is paid off which is usually 4 years.
“Fat Australian rapper with a fake New Jersey accent,”
Fatty Wop?
If any of you want to buy my multi pre-bidding war, I promise 100% full disclosure and I will offer a 12 month maintenance warranty. It’s a money maker for sure. You just need to have the time and desire to deal with the next generation. Montclair is going to the moon.
Word
https://twitter.com/MuslimIQ/status/976538367260274689
Probably on of his best tweets ever.
“Crazy Joe Biden is trying to act like a tough guy. Actually, he is weak, both mentally and physically, and yet he threatens me, for the second time, with physical assault. He doesn’t know me, but he would go down fast and hard, crying all the way. Don’t threaten people Joe!”
Joe Biden, “I would have taken him behind the gym and blown him.”
Why does it seem that’s a complete ripoff of Chunky Pam?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY4SF8xWKFo
@RandPaul
It’s a good thing we have Republican control of Congress or the Democrats might bust the budget caps, fund planned parenthood and Obamacare, and sneak gun control without due process into an Omni…wait, what?
It’s a wonder a place as sorry as N.J. really exists. It’s like a dystopian Disneyland
I would have stretched them out for as long as I could, but then the collision and comprehensive would have acted much like PMI as I would have had to keep paying for it until the loan was paid off. I remove them both the moment the loan is paid off which is usually 4 years.
Tried this, it gained me absolutely nothing on NJM. The quote they gave me with the removal of collision was $100 a year cheaper than full coverage, since the cost of everything else jacked up substantially.
I’ve heard exactly the same from numerous people who tried this, only to keep collision in the end because, well, why wouldn’t you.
It’s the insurance equivalent of removing phone service from your cable triple-play, you end up paying more for cable and internet than you would for the full package.
How much does your policy pay out in property damage? I sometimes worry what would happen if I hit a $100,000 Mercedes.
Exact opposite is true for homeowners insurance and replacement/rebuild value. There is absolutely no motivation to keep it artificially low, since adding $100k results in an absolutely minimal increase in premiums.
Shocking how many people didn’t increase their replacement value estimates during the bubble, they would have been in for a rude awakening in the case of a fire.
How much does your policy pay out in property damage? I sometimes worry what would happen if I hit a $100,000 Mercedes.
Just rip up your license and insurance card and say your name is Pablo and you are driving unlicensed and uninsured, the outcome for you will be better. Just like if I ever end up in the emergency room, my new name is Stanislaw Fuckyoubinski, illegal polish immigrant.
No hablo ingles
Not Howie Feltersnatch?
You are right about the replacement value. I upped my multi from 500-750. It cost less than $100 year more.
Grim – The Writer/Director is a Hipster from Hillsdale NJ, he says the PattiCakes is his alter ego, and is his life’s story.
I gather he decided to change the script to fat white woman rapper from rocker (supposed to be written as Danzig/Misfits from Lodi) when it producers asked for a re-write to the chunky pam rapper angle.
http://www.indiewire.com/2017/01/patti-cake-director-geremy-jasper-sundance-2017-1201772311/
What I don’t understand about NJ car insurance is how they can allow the State minimum in property damage to be $5000. That’s nothing today. With all the cameras and sensors in bumpers today…a fender bender is a $1000-$2000 bill.
I love going in to buy a car and they go ‘What kind of monthly payment are you looking for?’
Sorry sucker – I am going to negotiate the price of the car, not the monthly payment.
Grim they are not bothered yet. We shall see how long that lasts.
When I buy a car, my answer is always, “It depends. On price.”
Market futures are looking great.
But there’s also a silver lining for savers: Because interest rates have been low for years, it’s been tough to gain much extra ground in the form of interest when stashing away cash in savings accounts. The Fed’s move will make it easier to accrue interest on a nest egg or rainy day fund.
Let me know when I can exhale. It would be nice to get a steady 5%. Okay, how about 3%?
I said this how many times for how many years?
“We expect that as life progresses and today’s young adults age, they will add around 20 million households to the U.S. economy, driving housing demand over the next decade,” said Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist. “But, housing costs are a major factor holding back young adult household formations.”
It took Trump Derangement Syndrome to get us here but I’m glad to see people are awakening to the fact that Facebook is exploitive at it’s core. 5-10 years from now it will be a shell of itself.
This could be your problem. Simply showing up to buy a car nowadays has you marked as a sucker. Everyone savvy has already closed the deal by the time they show up.
“going in to buy a car”
@jaketapper
Reminder that between the two of these tough guys are nine Vietnam deferments and claims they couldn’t serve because of asthma and bone spurs.
I’m glad to see people are awakening to the fact that Facebook is exploitive at it’s core. 5-10 years from now it will be a shell of itself.
If micro targeting of advertising is exploitive, why no outrage against Amazon and Google, the defacto kings in the space.
“In other words, the term length of the loan counted for zero to his brand of consumers.”
For everyone. I found a couple sales guys I use, follow them around new dealerships as they changed jobs. They ‘got’ me. Meaning that when they asked the first question after what model are you interested in – “how much do you want to pay each month” – they dropped the facade when I said that we’ll discuss financing last and let’s first nail down the vehicle and price. The tradeoff I gave them was that I would be the easiest customer they ever had – walking in knowing exactly what I wanted and only walking in when I was ready to buy. Takes 20 minutes and one visit to sell me a car. You won’t make a ton, but zero time and effort on your part.
“We’ve been cash buyers ever since, with the exception of one 42 month lease that was a bargain.”
Me too, except for the last few cars I take a small loan, $5k or so. Throw it on autopay for a few months and then pay it off. Minimal interest and it does wonders for your credit score. With really not a lot else on my report I’ve not gone beneath 830.
With sub 1% rates, I’d argue there is a case for maintaining liquidity.
In this new shit employment world, the $30k dropped on a car represents a few more months dry powder. Or, you may enjoy the piece of mind of being able to tell your employer to f*ck off and enjoy summer at the beach. These factors may be worth 0.9% to you.
For many auto brands, these low rate promotions are like coupons. By not using them, you can’t negotiate a lower price, it doesn’t matter to the transaction, it’s already baked into the invoice. In some cases, the manufacturer finance arms are basically taking losses on the financing deals. “I’m paying cash” yields a “so what?” from them. In some cases, they might actually make out better if you pay cash, so why wouldn’t you take it?
“We expect that as life progresses and today’s young adults age, they will add around 20 million households to the U.S. economy, driving housing demand over the next decade”
I think enough of basic life outlook has changed recently that this number is overinflated.
Quite frankly, I had some trepidation on getting married….The prospect of 40+ intense years with one person – any person – was unsettling.
The older one gets, especially aging as a single, the more comfortable one becomes with the status quo and the established. You settle into your rhythm. Are we really expecting a bunch of people who have established living single pathways to all of sudden in their mid- to late-30s to come together at the same rates as previous population cohort? Very weird proposition.
Are we really expecting a bunch of people who have established living single pathways to all of sudden in their mid- to late-30s to come together at the same rates as previous population cohort? Very weird proposition.
Perhaps we need to build a wall around Brooklyn and invite more Muslims and Hispanics to live in the US. Africa looking particularly fertile these days.
New report on Big Pharma settlements highlights need for tougher enforcement
https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2018/03/new-report-on-big-pharma-settlements-highlights-need-for-tougher-enforcement/
Public Citizen’s Health Research Group today released an updated report cataloging all major financial settlements that the pharmaceutical industry has been forced to sign with federal and state governments from 1991 through 2017 for illegal activities.
The report shows a dramatic decrease since 2013 in both the total amount paid and the average penalty. Additionally, it found that state governments have virtually stopped prosecuting pharmaceutical manufacturers on their own initiative and with their own resources.
The companies paid fines for law-breaking such as marketing drugs for unproven uses and paying kickbacks to doctors.
Not only are fines just a cost of doing business but the amounts and number of such prosecutions are decreasing dramatically, while the behavior has not gone down — it’s gone up! Indeed, the criminal financial penalties have dropped by 90%.
Any why not keep doing it?
We all know robbing banks is illegal. Let’s assume that instead of throwing bank robbery in prison we instead made them pay back just 5% of what they stole.
You wouldn’t be able to actually get to a teller in the bank unless you were willing to wait for the five bank robbers in line in front of you to finish their “jobs”!
This is so blatantly obviously it’s disgusting, yet nobody — and I do mean nobody — cares.
The problem is that eventually the people will care, and some subset of them, even if a very small subset, will start taking their own idea of “justice” to said individuals and those who protected them. There is little or nothing the government can do if and when a group of citizens, or even just a few individual citizens, decide to spend their remaining life all at once obtaining redress for what the government refuses to prosecute, despite it being illegal conduct.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=233174
Grim I said that a while ago. Yeah all of a sudden they will wake up one day in their mid 30s or older and say oh dear let’s buy a house in the suburbs and have a kid.
I used to muse, well before the ugly divorce and even before being married, about a family of just me and children. I always knew I wanted children, strongly suspected I didn’t really want a wife.
IVF and Dolly the Lamb were news at the time, and I was traveling to Sweden frequently (OMG, the X chromosome crowd there is the antithesis of fat Jersey girl rappers). Why not strike an economic deal for good genetic ova, rent a uterus, and BAM, I’m set. If I was a good negotiator maybe I could nail down a natural rather than an in vitro fertilization.
Point being, I’m comfortable where I am now. Two great kids and single. As are a number of my friends, both male and female. But it a monstrous circuitous path to get here.
Question. Why did I and my peers all have to go through multiple years of a bad personal relationships, ugly divorces, and financial and emotional dislocation to get here? Many of us, between these two events, blew almost two prime decades of life.
Would it not have made more sense to stay single, and if we wanted children find an ‘untraditional’ way to have a family?
I suspect we will see such ‘relationships’ with the upcoming generations (call them what you want, Millennials, the next group, whatever). As they age in place as singles and develop and maintain their social networks in that setting they will redefine what family actually means.
Let’s strip away the Cinderella and Barbie Doll romance….from a practical matter marriage provides financial stability (usually represented by a home) and family (children).
If as a generation you’ve changed the standards on the first and can redefine the latter, why rush into marriage? Why even be marrried?
All of the criticisms and characteristics of the Millennials are just the thin edge of this societal change – experiential living, a certain casualness towards living quarters, ‘side hustle to become your main hustle’….In my view the real defining characteristic has yet to come as they redefine marriage and family (and therefore SFH ownership and especially the suburbs in the process).
Millennials take a lot of grief. Only time will tell, but they may be the smartest generation yet. They may be going – or already are – exactly where they want to be. We keep projecting our generation’s desires and lifestyles on them, and insisting it will happen. Don’t see how one necessarily draws that conclusion.
I’m old school grim. Sleep better without debt.
Kids aren’t just a financial proposition. What may have been good for your wallet may not have been good for their psychology.
Left very well said regarding the millennial s. As for the marriage issue one and done is my belief. If the first one did not work why go for a second? I know lots of divorced folks some are happy and will stay single others are on on line dating sites. Some people can’t be alone.
Amzn and goog both have value propositions for their users. Facebook’s product is their user info. Once the masses understand the proposition the appeal will decline. It has started.
Leftwing,
Where does financial duress fall in terms of the major causes of divorce and given a slowing economy, more people joining the ranks of unemployed or another job with significant pay cut, you think rate of divorce will accelerate in coming years? Several single breadwinners who are trending toward past their employment prime will get the axe in the next 6-9 mos with minimal economic cushion and little mouths to feed. Late to marriage and procreation.
“Kids aren’t just a financial proposition. What may have been good for your wallet may not have been good for their psychology.”
Totally agree. Saw first hand from my divorce and took more emotional energy and fortitude than I ever though I had to try to keep things ‘normal’ for them.
Which only reinforces my point….if one can form an alternative family without going through the construction and deconstruction of a ‘traditional’ one, why not?
“Amzn and goog both have value propositions for their users. Facebook’s product is their user info. Once the masses understand the proposition the appeal will decline. It has started.”
This, in spades. All major news outlets missing this point. Still calling it a ‘breach’. It was not a breach, it is their business model. And if you’re business model is what the general population considers a breach, you’re fcuked.
Fabius you’ve proven to be a simpleton, which makes you a cor constituent in the democrat party whose strategy is to grow the moron segment, but do you understand the difference between criminality and terrorism?
If you don’t have a wife or kids, I feel bad for you in old age. Who will take care of you? These people living single their entire life are screwed in old age.
“If as a generation you’ve changed the standards on the first and can redefine the latter, why rush into marriage? Why even be marrried?”
google maps pissed me off this morning. I wanted to load up work as a destination and it’s flooding me with ads of where to get breakfast in the area.
The government will take care of us all.
Stave
Interesting point. I believe I’m on the older side of people here…..I do have another subset of friends, smaller in size than the divorced. Basically miserably married. Most would bolt for the door, they’ve moved through the stage of ‘staying together for the kids’. (And, unsolicited advice, once you’ve hit that stage it would likely be better for the kids to not be together.).
Anyway, it seems to be mostly a matter of lifestyle/finances for them. Had one couple, husband actually moved out. They were well on their way, mutual uncontested even ‘friendly’ divorce if that makes any sense. Ended up getting back together. Spoke with him a lot about it, providing him support during the process. Bottom line was the hit to lifestyle was just too much, it was ‘easier’ to wake up every day next to someone that you really didn’t want to.
No backup to support this assertion, but it wouldn’t surprise me if these types of relationships, plus the divorces, plus the absentee gone-14-hrs-a-day working dad all contribute to the Millennials entire disdain for the ‘traditional’ lifestyle. Again, if so, I applaud them. I thought I was relatively smart. Took me two extra decades and a bunch of grief to figure out something so simple as to how do I live how I want?
It’s always a debate what age is the best age. You have kids young you miss out on things you and your spouse might have done together. You have them older you may be more financially settled but also more set in your ways. What I see more of now is people having kids in their 50s first time or second marriage. I honestly don’t know why one would do that unless money job not an issue. Whatever the case the birth age is increasing and for many it’s one and done. One may not need the house in the burbs to do that these days.
Maybe men in their 50’s just need to marry women in their 20’s.
Dfens sounds like high maintenance to me!
Money takes care of you, dummy. Assuredly you will have more of it without kids or an ex. Left’s post is spot on in terms of questions any young person should be asking themselves. Unfortunately it is a pragmatic man’s view (I think). Women won’t play by those rules. They want involved father and traditional family concept, unless you are Marissa Mayer. The problem today is simply no room for error. You marry wrong, buy wrong house, or plan career wrong..you are truly f-ed. I was married at 32 and wanted to start family but ex wanted career (which took off right when we got married). It was over by 36. That is tough spot. Reclaimed my youth for a bit, had some fun but truly wanted family and met person who really wanted motherhood at 38. Started family at 41 and it was struggle to get there. I see lots of couples where both career driven, wanting big house and success. Children and careers will eventually conflict. I want that woman who chooses her kids whole-heartedly. Lots begrudgingly choose kids but no one is happy and it will end in tears. I just talked to idiot father who I met via son’s daycare. He is 36 and about to have second. He says about to throw 3 year old through window and he was crazy to have #2. His wife talks negatively about kids too. It sickens me, whether small talk or not. They felt obligated and neither want to accept change in freedom etc. Don’t get me started on my 40 year old friends with 3 and 1 year olds who would not leave Hoboken and their local bar community/ pool league. They are their all time still if you go by FB posts.
Left and others, interesting comments. I am lucky and fortunate on many fronts, economic and health. I know several who are about to go nose down and looks to me like one could be catastrophic. Both are single breadwinners, spouse with no capacity to earn a living, very young kids and late 40s who don’t realize spending like drunken sailor and poor savings but they think they are in demand execs but they are not. Economy is chugging along until its not and by fall, I suspect picture is significantly different.
Check that, Marissa Mayer married. Point was an independent, wealthy woman might not need Dad.
Bystander having children is a huge commitment. We started young in the 80s as my wife’s career was taking off. Her company begged her to come back after first child born. They were going to pay for live in Nanny at the time. We said no and fortunately my salary covered everything we did not live extravagantly but comfortable. All of our friends wives stayed home too. This was late 80s. For most it will be impossible to have a stay at home parent today and even if possible there is the economic insecurity of relying on one paycheck today. As a tail end boomer I have no problem saying this generation got the short end of the stick. Maybe that’s why some millennial s are indifferent to marriage and kids.
Stave can’t rely on one paycheck today. It’s economic suicide!!
Dow down 400 plus.
Stave,
Yep. My company is completely focused on women (who they are acknowledged are underpaid compared to male counterparts..hey let’s leverage that arbitrage) and first year analysts (coffees, meetings, social outings)..the rest of us are phantoms in their short term plans.
Some of us are happily married. It helps to wait until you are much older to tie the knot. But it’s way harder raising the kids when you wake up with various aches and pains. There are some advantages too though. You are much, much wiser. It shows at open school night.
I just hope I’m still alive at high school graduation.
My third wife hasn’t been born yet.
Lib pros and cons on both. We got married young it worked no regrets from either of us. Both need to be on the same page.
But seriously I think it is awful waiting till you’re in your 50’s to have a kid. Good chance you will be dead before the kid is 18.
3b,
I feel like a Japanese pilot, for sure. Seeing planes go down around me in terms 40 plus with SAHM and kids, losing jobs.
Hold life spans are longer today so it’s very doable in that respect but for the rest of it I agree. Plus the chances of the child being autistic increases sperm and eggs both get old. Plus 50 something’s chasing after toddler s etc I don’t get it.
Bystander I feel for those people. An incredible amount of stress.
Grim please unmod.
I’m killing myself over here…
3b says:
March 22, 2018 at 11:32 am
Stave can’t rely on one paycheck today. It’s economic suicide!!
“Both need to be on the same page”
No taboos. No secrets. You need to have the ability to discuss things openly and fairly. Heck, I don’t sugar coat things with my kids. Why would I lie to my wife? I also spent 7 years with her before we tied the knot. Too many people mistake a good fukc for a life partner.
It’s really as simple as this. If you think the grass is greener on the other side, then go to the other side. You blew it on this one.
Lib agree! And compromise. It is a partnership and compromise is a part of partnership. But you have to agree on the big stuff for the most part otherwise it does not work.
Of course, what keeps me going is that statistically my income, debt ratio, savings and assets are better than 90% of America. If I am a c- hair from instability then how will rest of country survive? That’s why I think things will unravel socially over next 10 years rather than Blumpkin’s up cycle idiocy. These bombings and mass killings are sign something is wrong, particularly copy cat nature and frequencies. You can choose to follow stock trends but you might want to follow social trends too.
The other perfect storm is that the media is absolutely desperate to create quick news cycles with most clicks possiblr. These killers are getting rapid attention that their sick minds crave. They are somebody, they are being listened to..truly f-ed.
Bystander I agree with you. This boom coming nonsense is simply that nonsense. Eventually the millennial s or whatever one calls them will get their faces out of their phones and grab pitch forks and torched and bring it all down.
Eventually the millennial s or whatever one calls them will get their faces out of their phones and grab pitch forks and torched and bring it all down.
Or the boomers will just die, and they won’t have to grab pitch forks at all.
U.S., China Sharpen Trade Swords – The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AIlrrItX4RTyn6Onz8FHRQw
Lots of boomers out there they may not wait until they are all gone. My door will be marked in red so they will pass over it. I have tried in my own way to fight for the younger generation. We are not all self absorbed over medicated morons in therapy. Some of us actually care.
3B,
It really depends. I see it as a steam boiler right now with corporations and sleezy politicians controlling the release valve. Boiler is filling up due to student debt, job automation/ (in) outsourcing, and potential housing vs wage inflation. Need legitimate release in one of those categories asap for young folks.
Here is CNBC article, 40% default in 5 years? That would seem catastrophic.
“Student loan borrowers in the United States collectively owe almost $1.5 trillion in student debt, and according to the Brookings Institute, almost 40 percent of borrowers will default on their student loans by 2023.
Currently, it is nearly impossible to have your student debt forgiven during bankruptcy — but that may soon change. In February, the Department of Education announced that it will review and potentially alter policies that make it difficult for student debt to be discharged in bankruptcy.”
Student debt dischargeable in bankruptcy would go a long way towards keeping tuition in check.
Absurd this doesn’t already exist.
Grim yes it would as would having parents stop sending their kids to schools that neither can afford so that the parents can slap the $5.00 sticker on the back window of their SUV.
Speaking of automation and job loss.
One of the most interesting disruptive trends I’ve been following is advances in machine translation, where automatic translation is quickly approaching parity with human translators.
This one will hit Europe very hard.
Traditionally, outsourcing in Europe has been difficult due to the number of languages being supported. You see jobs move to eastern Europe locales where you can find big pockets of capable non-native speakers, or perhaps to North Africa in the case of French. However, with advances in translation, it might very well be possible to move those jobs to the big US/English outsource hot spots, Philippines, Latam, India.
In addition, can potentially create dislocation for these major US outsource areas to shift. For example, impossible to support US English out of Brazil today, not enough speakers. But if English-Portuguese translation hits an acceptable level, now we’re talking.
A possible worst-case scenario, English-Mandarin/Cantonese language translations excel to the point that outsourcing can be done in China. This would be an end-game for lots of near-shore/off-shore jobs.
“My door will be marked in red”
I thought you were supposed to smear Naragansett Lager across the head jamb?
Has this been posted?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/u-s-starter-homes-are-pricier-smaller-older-and-scarcer?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=180322&utm_campaign=ritholtz
China will lose in a trade war, horribly.
CONCORD, N.H. – There’s just so many catchy slogans you can concoct to urge people to buy lottery tickets. The New Hampshire Lottery Commission thought it struck gold with its “Luck Yeah!” campaign, but an outraged Republican thought “Luck Yeah!” was too similar to common phrase that begins with an F. Lottery officials defended the slogan, WMUR reports, noting that the word “luck” is a big part of selling lottery tickets and the campaign has been successful. No matter, conservatives were outraged. So, now, the new slogan is “Win Time.”
And now I’m a buyer.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
March 20, 2018 at 11:51 am
FYI – Own a lot of tech (no FANGS), added to long time positions in NVDA and ADBE yesterday. I’m a Tech seller today, but I’m selling the big names, not my smaller winners. I even sold V today, and I’ve owned/added to that forever.
Just bought back ADBE, NVDA, TEL, and V. I didn’t like selling them a couple days ago, but I trust my model more than myself. Also added another 1000 shares of MSCC for the arbitrage profit.
My uncle (my mom’s older brother) just had first kid at 77 years old. Wife is 23. Both kid and wife receive social security.
Hold my beer says:
March 22, 2018 at 11:47 am
But seriously I think it is awful waiting till you’re in your 50’s to have a kid. Good chance you will be dead before the kid is 18.
Not sure if I’m right on this one, but I sold a large recent position in TLT for a 1.25 point profit. I even received a dividend in between opening and closing the position.
LOL. I just about never buy anything within 10 days of earnings (though I may buy on something that gets oversold on earnings release). I almost pulled the trigger on MU at the close, but couldn’t risk it. I might buy right now though.
Never mind on MU. If I could have gotten it at $54 a couple minutes ago, that would have been a different story.
That ain’t workin’, that’s the way you do it.
My uncle (my mom’s older brother) just had first kid at 77 years old. Wife is 23. Both kid and wife receive social security.
Damn, Chi..winner.
Like I’ve said before, I run (OK, brisk walk) with a crowd that all had their first kids at age 40 +/- 3 or 4 years, all of us in our 50’s now. It’s the most relaxed group of people I’ve ever hung out with.
It’s hilarious just to watch all of the family and political dynamics in the group. I might be the only outright Trump supporter in the group. The majority of us have two kids, one family has three kids, my most liberal friend (think lots of drugs as a teen, raised in Vermont, late 50’s now) is one of the guys I’m closest to, both of us see ourselves as musicians when we retire.
This guy is married to an equally liberal woman who was born in Ireland. They are just incredible. She has a Ph.D. or something similar in physical therapy, cyclist like me, just great. No matter what your politics, you’ll just love them. He is a wine salesman and has worked at the same company for 40+ years. He actually got his Bachelor’s degree from some school in Fresno, specifically focused on the wine business.
Anyway, from a kid perspective they are outliers. They only have one. And their son is a staunch conservative, but really gifted when it comes to school and music(bring on the oxymoron jokes). He’s been friends with my 16 year old daughter since they were both 3 years old. To give you an example of the kind of people these people are, and they are great parents, here are some of the more memorable birthday parties for their son we’ve been to:
1. Kayaking and Canoeing.
2. Guided tour of an historic cemetery.
3. Guided tour of an Audubon Society bird-watching preserve.
Their son makes them crazy. They enroll him in all of these great enrichment programs and try to persuade him to hide his politics from the liberal lefty kids he’s pressed into convening with. He’ll show up in a sleeveless, skin-tight military camo shirt.
Grim,
I think that is the point. This whole China into WTO thing was with the proviso they liberalize and became democratic. They have not and will not, doing the exact opposite with Xi PreZ4Life over there. The line has moved significantly to the enemy side of frenemies. And will move much more faster than expected because corporate america has also realized they got taken for a ride.
2 Other slight predictions.
-If war breaks out with us somewhere ex. Iran or NK. Expect Russia to move into eastern Europe and China into Taiwan/South China Seas.
-No matter how much Trump grovel/does Putin’s bidding. Eventually Putin will let the cat out of the bag. Putin’s interest is to take down the USA’s moral authority/respect/dependability down.
grim says:
March 22, 2018 at 2:12 pm
China will lose in a trade war, horribly.
I have friends staunch conservative even though one ironically is a Yale grad. Their Son is a Communist!
I don’t think Putin wants eastern Europe too much money to keep an empire.
I know a lot of people not having kids, myself included.
My SIL, my wife’s only sibling, is politically almost nothing. Her and her husband are just poor and always have been. I don’t think they really even think about politics.
He hosts a radio show at UMBC late on some weekend night titled something like The Sleepytime Soci@list Hour. During the show, he just reads propaganda over a bed of music. I listened once and asked him what the music bed was. It’s the video game start screen music from “Metro 2033”. It’s a novel that was made into…not a movie…no, a novel that was made into a video game. I can’t do it justice, just read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_2033_(video_game)
My nephew is now spending his *sophomore* year abroad in South Korea. The family worries that he will run across the border to the North.
I have friends staunch conservative even though one ironically is a Yale grad. Their Son is a Communist!
^^^ Mega-ironically, my SIL’s husband has always worked his entire career in food service. He has a degree from Syracuse in political science.
Whoops, I switched the paragraphs around. When I said, “He hosts a radio show”, I was talking about my nephew, not by BIL. My BIL works at a college cafeteria in NH and also at a Walmart. He runs marathons in his spare time.
Putin’s interest in eastern Europe is vis a vis showing how NATO is worthless.
The whole point of US bases in Germany and NATO was to keep the Russian out, the Germans in and keep everyone else calm. As it was said of Thatcher who opposed german reunification. She liked germany so much, she preferred two of them.
If you look at the EU today. Well, germany won again, this time without shooting a bullet. It’s winning is destabilizing everyone else, and the EU’s cohesion is going loose.
Mike S that’s another point and ties into the declining birth rate I assume. Far better to not want kids then to have them and be a miserable parent. Just don’t get a dog and pretend it’s a kid!!
Nice day on the Dow today!!
One of the few people I know who I can have a political conversation with is a life long communist as were his parents. He is a retired NYU professor.
One can make the argument that when the Warsaw Pact disbanded perhaps NATO should have too instead it was expanded right to Russia s front door. Nothing Thatcher could have done to stop German reunification nor did she have any right to.
3b – I’m with you. Smart people are great to converse with, no matter their politics. That’s why Pumps is addicted in trying to get to the adult table, even though his diaper is leaking and he doesn’t have the education.
Hahaha! I never heard that one before. Priceless!
As it was said of Thatcher who opposed german reunification. She liked germany so much, she preferred two of them.
@realDonaldTrump
Crazy Joe Biden is trying to act like a tough guy. Actually, he is weak, both mentally and physically, and yet he threatens me, for the second time, with physical assault. He doesn’t know me, but he would go down fast and hard, crying all the way. Don’t threaten people Joe!
^^^BTW, that is what is known as a weather balloon.
3b, the stats don’t lie. I’ve said this for how long that suburbs are not dead. As soon as they have kids, they want to move out of the city.
“Suburbs are drawing more Americans who are being priced out of expensive urban cores, and pulling in millennials and younger members of Generation X who are settling down to start families or have more children.
The suburban population of large metropolitan areas grew 1% last year. Domestic migration into such counties has tripled over the past five years, reaching 265,000 last year, census figures show.
America’s big cities continue to grow, with their population rising 0.7% in 2017. But that growth is now on par with the country on the whole after years of outpacing it, and is primarily because immigrants keep arriving there. In the past five years, large U.S. cities have gone from drawing people from the rest of the country to in 2017 losing 437,000 domestic migrants as residents flow to suburbs or uproot for midsize cities.
The millennial generation—a juggernaut of 71 million Americans born between 1981 and 1996—helped revive cities by moving there for jobs and delaying marriage and children longer than previous generations.”
Retirees Reshape Where Americans Live – The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AY1FV1u7oRvy9ArHBZq-y-Q
“John Burns, chief executive of John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif., which advises home builders, says clients are luring millennials out of cities with so-called “surban” developments that have walkable amenities and good schools.
“Even if you could afford to live in an urban area, pushing a stroller and going to the grocery store with a 1-year-old isn’t that easy,” Mr. Burns said.”
I can see the Onion headlines, I want it to be sooo real,
WWE Presents
Main Bout – Joe “TransAm” vs “UrFire” Donnie
For the benefit of “Happy Smile Locust Generation of America – a charity providing for the hyperactive degenerate boomer with free boner pills”
Disclaimers – Both fighters will be wearing adult diapers and remote controlled defibrillator pacemakers – to make sure the fun continues even if the heart can’t.
Good job, Trump. Have to give him that, he said he would stop China from ripping us off with unfair trade, and came through.
“But coupled with the administration’s decision to exempt the European Union, South Korea, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico from the tariffs on cheap metals, the action demonstrates how much Mr. Trump’s nationalist trade agenda is really targeted at a single country: China.
“What the United States is doing is strategically defending itself from China’s economic aggression,” said Peter Navarro, director of the White House National Trade Council and an architect of the measures. “We repeatedly aired our concerns about China as a nonmarket economy.”“
At least they finally see the light.
“I think that is the point. This whole China into WTO thing was with the proviso they liberalize and became democratic. They have not and will not, doing the exact opposite with Xi PreZ4Life over there. The line has moved significantly to the enemy side of frenemies. And will move much more faster than expected because corporate america has also realized they got taken for a ride.”
Here’s how you know the swamp draining is starting to happen: I heard Wolf Blitzer denigrate Alan Dershowitz yesterday on CNN and I just heard some moron on MSNBC saying that Sean Hannity is now picking Trump’s cabinet.
“Mr. Trump, the officials said, will also direct the Treasury Department to impose restrictions on Chinese investment in American technology companies — a practice that they said the Chinese government uses to develop its own “national champions” in cutting-edge industries like artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles.
Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, told the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday that he had recommended the forthcoming actions against China include tariffs on Chinese products from all of the advanced industries the country has vowed to build up as part of its “Made in China 2025” plan. Those industries include electric vehicles, high-tech shipping and aerospace technology. Mr. Lighthizer called them “the ones I care about” for tariff purposes.
“The end objective of this is to get China to modify its unfair trade practices,” Everett Eissenstat, the deputy director of the National Economic Council, said in a telephone call with reporters.
Mr. Navarro cast the tariffs as part of a seminal shift in how the United States views China. Rather than trying to draw it into the rules-based international economic order — a policy that dates back to Richard M. Nixon and Henry A. Kissinger — the United States now regards China as a strategic competitor, bent on eroding American security and prosperity.”
Wax paper is also making a big comeback. Whoever still buys aluminum foil is an idiot.
I’ve said this for how long that suburbs are not dead.
Integrated circuits? Fuhgeddaboutit. If you can afford to live in the suburbs, you can afford the luxury of vacuum tubes.
Chinese make tubes now too.
They ain’t moving to these suburbs unless they are more urban. You need to inform John Burns real estate. It’s not easy having to put a one year old in a car seat get in a car to go pick up a quart of milk. And many are staying in the urban areas I see it every day. Take a trip out of Wayne world and go on down Harrison.
Ex pat I agree . This friend of mine is incredibly smart in spite of being a Communist. He has traveled all over the world he is a fascinating individual. I seem to remember a time where one could agree to disagree on politics,that’s not the case today.
Here’s my own uneducated analysis about what’s going on vis-à-vis Texas bomber, Florida shooter, et al.
Kids grow up not thinking that they will one day be famous but, rather, that they already are famous. Sometime a short while later, maybe when they have to start paying their own cell phone bills and, gasp!, rent, they realize that they aren’t really anything.
Prior to social media your whole world was the 7 or 8 people that you spent time with, mostly in groups of 3 or 4 at a time, or on the phone, one on one. Nowadays kids have a standing in virtual groups of perhaps several hundred, maybe a couple thousand. When that virtual standing goes away, so does the mind of some of them…and bad things happen.
I think people are forgetting that the “normal” way to grow up was having a circle of 1 to 7. It was the boys (predominantly) who had a circle of zero that presented the future problems.
Imagine being a social media superstar in HS, but being a nothing in actual school grades. What happens a few years after HS when your ex-friends move on to college, careers, etc. and you move on to being unemployed, still living at home?
7:49 Look at each of those kids and 9/10 you’ll find some real absentee parenting.
Hey one of ya’ll wanna spin this trump thing for me?
Signed, WTF
When I finally graduated college, I vaguely remember a little bit of “Is this all there is?”. Now, I actually had a hot girlfriend, a good job, and a small circle of friends. I also had a new car and my own apartment and just about zero debt (car was $273.81 per month for 12 months). It was 1984 and I had it “good”. I controlled my own destiny, and I had the funds to do so, more than I ever had at my disposal before.
Imagine the present day. I can foresee where a kid could actually be extremely popular in the virtual sense at age 17 or 18 and by two years later he is absolutely nothing, virtually and physically. I’m thinking guys. Girls can “lose everything” at age 14 or 15 by virtual standards, depending on the social winds of change.
It just seems like a dangerous situation.
There seems to be a general air of apathy and indifference in American society today perhaps that’s true of every generation but a there is a real disconnect somewhere today.
Expat
I need aluminum foil. I would look ridiculous walking down the street wearing a helmet wrapped in wax paper.
How about Saran wrap!
3b,
The stats don’t lie. Demographic spending patterns revived the city, and as these spending patterns shift to the suburbs to raise families, the same impact will be felt through the burbs.
“The suburban population of large metropolitan areas grew 1% last year. Domestic migration into such counties has tripled over the past five years, reaching 265,000 last year, census figures show.
America’s big cities continue to grow, with their population rising 0.7% in 2017. But that growth is now on par with the country on the whole after years of outpacing it, and is primarily because immigrants keep arriving there. In the past five years, large U.S. cities have gone from drawing people from the rest of the country to in 2017 losing 437,000 domestic migrants as residents flow to suburbs or uproot for midsize cities.
The millennial generation—a juggernaut of 71 million Americans born between 1981 and 1996—helped revive cities by moving there for jobs and delaying marriage and children longer than previous generations.”
And that article highlights why the economy will boom from these demographic spending patterns. Like I’ve always said, you will have two of our largest demographic groups shifting in where they live. The amount of economic activity that is created from boomers moving into retirement homes, and millennials into homes made for raising families, is enormous. Feeds growth into all sectors of the economy.
Pumps that’s what you don’t understand the millenials are not all up and moving to the suburbs. Delayed marriage delayed and declining birth rate jobs in the cities and on and on. It’s like you are waiting for Godot; he ain’t coming.
Read the paragraphs in the quote. It’s already happening.
“The suburban population of large metropolitan areas grew 1% last year. Domestic migration into such counties has tripled over the past five years, reaching 265,000 last year, census figures show.
America’s big cities continue to grow, with their population rising 0.7% in 2017. But that growth is now on par with the country on the whole after years of outpacing it, and is primarily because immigrants keep arriving there. In the past five years, large U.S. cities have gone from drawing people from the rest of the country to in 2017 losing 437,000 domestic migrants as residents flow to suburbs or uproot for midsize cities.“
One of the last of my friends in Hoboken, recently had his child’s first birthday, and guess where he is looking? Montclair. Him and his wife are my age.
I have one other friend left in Hoboken, but he is younger (35). His wife is a doctor and he is a lawyer. They have a one year old, and guess what? They are also looking in the burbs.
Also Polish?
One of the last of my friends in Hoboken, recently had his child’s first birthday, and guess where he is looking? Montclair. Him and his wife are my age.
I have one other friend left in Hoboken, but he is younger (35). His wife is a doctor and he is a lawyer. They have a one year old, and guess what? They are also looking in the burbs.
Exactly, Mike. I wish I was the type of guy who could just go in to a dealership and test drive a car and leave. It’s just not in me. If I walk in, I have a price (and probably a VIN from their inventory) that I am set on. I don’t get why I can’t become the guy who says, “I’m just looking.” I think it’s just the adversarial nature of car dealerships, I just can’t go in and not compete.
I love going in to buy a car and they go ‘What kind of monthly payment are you looking for?’
Sorry sucker – I am going to negotiate the price of the car, not the monthly payment.
Re dealerships. Costco then bargain. You won’t be disappointed
For a new car that is
I can’t believe what a sham MSNBC is!!!!!!
Lawrence O’Donnell just showed, “one moment”, of a previous confirmation hearing of John Bolton. They showed Senator Barack Obama’s question, and FAILED TO SHOW BOLTON’S ANSWER! NOT A WORD OF IT!!!
Instead they characterized his (not shown) answer as, “Needless to say, the answers were not reassuring”
This deserves a scumbag award of the highest level!
Hellow All I like pizza! :)
pizza
NSFW (language) – I don’t know, I kind of like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th41B1JIYY0