From The Real Deal:
New York City foreclosures are back to financial crisis levels
The number of foreclosures in the city continued to climb this year, with Staten Island and Brooklyn seeing the largest upticks in scheduled auctions.
In the first quarter of 2018, 920 homes were slated for foreclosure for the first time — a 31 percent year-over-year increase, according to a new report by PropertyShark. This represents the largest number of foreclosures seen in any quarter since 2009.
New foreclosures in Staten Island jumped 226 percent to 189, compared to 58 in the first quarter of 2017, according to the report. Brooklyn experienced a 64 percent increase year-over-year, logging 275 scheduled foreclosures.
The Bronx followed with 113 foreclosures — a 33 percent increase — and Queens had 303, representing a 13 percent decrease year-over-year. Manhattan had just 38, compared to 2017’s 36.
Foreclosures reached 3,306 citywide in 2017, marking the highest volume seen since 2009, according to a separate report by PropertyShark. It should be noted, however, that the number of lis pendens filed — the first step in the foreclosure process — was down 13 percent this quarter compared to the same time last year.
So, while scheduled foreclosures continue to rise, a slowdown may be in sight. At the same time, it’s unclear how the new tax law will impact home values, and whether it will result in a spike in mortgage foreclosures as some have predicted.
Nice chart of the day over at Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-06/more-americans-are-voluntarily-leaving-jobs
Absolutely the case.
Two words retention bonus.
Anecdotal to the lead story- My FIL who is now 69 got called up last week by old coworker to see if he’s interested in working again.
Juice I have heard employers are starting to take a look again at old employers. More stable and no child care issues etc. But they are not necessarily paying them the big bucks. Saw it in the WSJ I believe a few months ago.
More stable and no child care issues etc.
No drama issues I might add, consistent, don’t need a week off to mourn the death of a pet rabbit, will endure a cold and no sleep and still make the commute, don’t need or ask for special desks, props, pads, playthings and don’t need to be fed, they’ll provide their own nourishment. Basically, low maintenance and much bang for the buck.
Just finished reading an article in market watch referencing the 10 year anniversary of bear stearns collapse. According to the article the average size of a home loans reached an all time high last year even higher than the last housing bubble! And first time home buyers put down an average of just 6 percent. It’s going to be uglier then last time when it pops!
Ironically, the foreclosure 2 blocks away from me has been vacant for nearly a decade at this point. It’s got signs on it saying signs of animals living there. There’s a gigantic pine that smashed through the deck that’s been sitting there for 2 years. It appears someone finally bought it or they are going to do something with it. I saw a mold testing truck outside and dumpster filled with crap outside.
Another foreclosure went right away as well. Guy is redoing the whole inside and trying to flip it. I guess it’s a sign of progress, unless another round of foreclosures hits. Prices are already down 5 to 10% from what we saw in our neighborhood 1.5 years ago. Not a big deal and no cause for crisis. But if they go 15 to 20% with people losing their jobs, then we start to worry.
3B – re: Mortgage Debt.
We are getting there..
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDOAH
File under “do as I say”
De Blasio aide busted with gun in car
https://nypost.com/2018/04/08/director-of-citys-office-of-criminal-justice-busted-for-gun-possession/
Eddie
Just don’t bother their 20m desk nap between 2-3..hah. My old boss was about 56 and would doze off. The older I get the more I understand. Seriously, the economy is great for people getting paid $10/hr now getting $12. Crowd 40-55 are f-ed as higher paying jobs are few and far between. No one wants to pay $150k or more. They want kid with 7 years experience and pay them $125k. My buddy is at 4 months almost with no offers, contract or otherwise. Guy is a wreck of nerves.
Juice it’s going to be uglier!! I don’t understand how one people forget and two some think this is a good thing.
Bystander I feel bad for your friend. Is it a one income family?
3b,
Yep. That is what makes it so hard. 43 with 10 and 8 year old. The saddest part is truly I can’t help him with my contacts because I will most likely be out the door this month. We have similar work backgrounds. If he was lazy then I would say maybe not trying hard enough but guy is most energetic person you will meet. If a negative it might be his energy could be looked at as desperation now. Guy pesters everyone I know.
By I feel bad for him tough spot to be. But it shows the perils of just one income today. Nothing to fall asleep back on. As for yourself I hope you have something lined up. Best of luck to you.
Brother in laws condo is going to a buyer doing 3.5% down. Well, that’s if they get their mortgage commitment. Closing is the 20th and the buyer’s lawyer keeps pushing the commitments due day back. It was originally a week ago. Then last Friday. Now this Thursday. Worst of all, their inspector had to almost conjure up things to fault and the buyer wants a credit for everything, rather than have it fixed. Like it really matters when you put what equals 4 months rent as a down payment on a 30-year loan.
The final sticking point is that there’s a little missing glazing on one brick in the base of the gas fireplace. The inspector called it a fire hazard. What? Half the tiles in the bottom of my REAL fireplace are cracked or missing to expose natural brick. It is NOT a fire hazard. Will keep you all updated on the proceedings. We gave 17 bags of clothes to the VA and brother and mother still have 40 pairs of everything packed up.
Sometimes, if you can’t find work, you gotta make work for yourself.
3B,
Gator just finished her first week back to work. We probably could have survived without the income, but was more worried about having a backup to my position.
Lib Good your brother is getting his cash out before this madness blows up again. Good luck to Gator on the new job! Nice having that income coming in. We were a stay at home family back in the late 80s but I believe we were the last generation able to do that. It s almost impossible today and even if doable it leaves the family in a precarious position should the sole income disappear.
3b,
Agree, not the best situation but also not a choice for many. I had a huge family/friends party this weekend and after a couple of drinks, the real stories come out. Divorce, sick kids, dependent parents..it is really tough out there. My wife had a crappy university job but it paid 100% health benefits. They were absolute pr$cks when she had my 3 year old in daycare (and always sick) while also pregnant with 2nd. They got rid of whole dept right before birth of second. She has not worked in over 18 months but little one was preemie and needs help. Money is not everything but it certainly sucks flying plane solo. I have good savings so hope to ride it out ok.
By it seems like there is a veneer of things are great out there which covers up the reality. Glad you are set savings wise. I understand that there are reasons whereby one parent has to stay home and live with the risk. I am surprised people were so Frank at the party usually it’s the other way around everyone is doing great etc. All the best to you and your family.
By it seems like there is a veneer of things are great out there which covers up the reality.
It’s called Facebook, but looks like that might be dying.
People who use Facebo0k seem to seem to be trying to fill a void in their lives. I know many of them. Why not fill it in the real world? Join a club, church group etc. instead of being exploited by a huckster.
I think a lot of people are in debt up to their eyeballs. They live a shallow life of keeping up with the Joneses, who are also probably equally in financial trouble. I often question my decision about having more savings over fun. Then I see the disaster that is what happens to so many people as they get older and realize the safety net is mostly air and little rope. I also see how well my folks are living and realize how nice it must be to not have to worry about money for 30 to 40 years.
Facebook should have stayed with the family and friends posting pictures. I enjoy that aspect of Facebook. Unfortunately, this past election season changed Facebook to a media outlet instead of an outlet to keep up with your friends and family.
re: FB
Mobile advertising has accounted for more than 90 percent of Facebook’s revenue growth ever since they started going the whole hog in 2012 and currently drives 88 percent of the company’s total revenue, they are killing it nearly 13 billion a quarter in revenues from your phone and desktop ads.
Apple and Google added these constant disruptions from these types of Social Apps to your smart phone that act like an alarm clock and a constant reminder that you need to click and open your apps to see updates. These APNs from Apple and GCP Google Cloud Messaging send you these constant interruptions to you day in and day out prodding you to click with the chance of a reward.
For you see the clicks or taps these social apps provide is a dopamine release.
The dopamine release is actually the anticipation of pleasure you may get, whether you get it or not.
It’s all about the human pursuit of happiness rather than finding happiness itself.
If everyone shut off the real-time push notifications they would hobble all Social Apps trying to sell you something. You can go back to looking at the content once or twice a day or not at all if you can wean yourself.
Have you guys seen the UNISON loan yet? Sign of a bubble?
Based on the direct mail piece I just received, you borrow interest free (plus hidden 3.9% of loan closing cost fee) and you pay them nothing until you sell. They take their share of the total increase in the value of the home. Of course, there is more fine print and hidden costs than I care to determine. But none the less, definitely a ticking time bomb if something like this got popular.
I do FB once a day typically. Usually before I go to bed. Though if Nom Posts something, I can’t help myself.
Lib and it very well may get popular.
@tonyschwartz
Everything is great, the best it’s ever been.
We are doing great on trade deals.
We will denuke North Korea.
We will end opioids.
Problems will go away.
Scott Pruitt is a great guy and an honest guy.
All past presidents are idiots.
I am a stable genius.
Lib,
After reading the last post, I immediately thought of the commercial with the guy mowing his lawn saying he’s in debt up to his eyeballs. That commercial is more nightmare than humor to me.
Just installed new doors and replaced half the windows. Paid cash for the doors, financed the windows at 0% and plan on paying off within a year. I’m still scared even with the ability to pay these things off.
re: UNISON loans….
I am using “take a vacation on the house” as the true sign of peak price and peak equity, but it seems Home Equity debt continues to decline.
And the new tax code change eliminated the interest deduction.
Unisom aka and competitor Point and others want 35% of the value of the home gain when you sell for the initial downpayment loan, the whole thing with them and others is they are trying to get the GSEs to take a stake, it needs to be bundled with the rest of the sausages and sold off their books for them to generate any kind of velocity. Freddie Mac is running a pilot apparently, whatever that means. They haven’t raised enough private equity to generate the velocity they need.
It’s absolutely crazy. If you were near a bubble pop, it would make for a great gamble.
The big bust part of the cycle is not coming anytime soon. It will indeed be uglier because this boom will be that much bigger.
The experts are laying claims of a bust coming because in their minds, it always happens every ten years or so. This time was different because of the huge bust in the previous cycle that required quantitative easing to fix. This previous bust was so big that it caused a generation of people to be overly conservative when it comes to spending, esp on housing. Their negative sentiment and overly cautious approach is finally starting to go away, but it’s still going to take some time. This next boom is going to be so big, it will set the entire market into a euphoric mode that the good times will not end, and this is when the bust will start to show its head.
3b says:
April 9, 2018 at 8:58 am
Just finished reading an article in market watch referencing the 10 year anniversary of bear stearns collapse. According to the article the average size of a home loans reached an all time high last year even higher than the last housing bubble! And first time home buyers put down an average of just 6 percent. It’s going to be uglier then last time when it pops!
It’s capitalism my friend. Under capitalism, it will always be like this. Some will win big, lots will lose, and a bunch of middle people will be moving up or down.
3b says:
April 9, 2018 at 11:27 am
By it seems like there is a veneer of things are great out there which covers up the reality. Glad you are set savings wise. I understand that there are reasons whereby one parent has to stay home and live with the risk. I am surprised people were so Frank at the party usually it’s the other way around everyone is doing great etc. All the best to you and your family.
dude One_Income_family social contract has been long, long gone. this ain’t no 1960’s in fact Reagan put at end to safety net offered by unions, pensions and opened the door to free trade, trickle down economics, private equity and corporate rapaciousness
wanna send kids to college with one pack check? opposing free college cause you got 250k per kid in 529?
wanna send kids to college with one pack check?
A new financial apparatus?
Lib if the market watch article is correct I would say loan amounts higher than the bubble period and 6 percent average downpayment we are pretty damn close to bubble popping but who knows!!??
VSG is not aware of the shift key.
Juice do you think I are going to try and securitize this crap?
Juice what if there was is no gain for argument sake?
Very: there was still a lot of people doing it back in the late 80s onebincome stat at home mom, sometimes the Dad. All my friends all did it back then too.
Maybe not the top, but I’m guessing within two years. People aren’t quite euphoric yet. Another year with limited wage increases and all bets are on.
And Eddie and I witnessed what making college loans available to everyone did to tuition. If government wants to fully fund it, it will be equally as expensive in tax dollars and the product will be about as good as Amtrak.
The left likes to pretend that letting 20-40 million semi literate third worlders over the past half century hasn’t frayed the soci@l safety net and reduced the standard of living for many. Cognitive dissonance at its finest.
Overly conservative on housing? You truly are an idiot. How about had record bubble pricing, followed by record unemployment, then govt. gave billions away so financial firms could buy all the properties and now little guy still is forced to spend 40% of take home pay on housing bc he is told it is a good investment. No wage growth either. If anything people had been too risky and govt. bailed it out. We can’t do it again. Bullet are shot.
Yes, people wouldn’t even touch housing for a long time after the bust.
I see no behavior today to dictate people are euphoric on the stock or housing market. Again, they have been ultra conservative on both over the years since the crash. People have been yelling bubble in both since at least 2011.
Bystander says:
April 9, 2018 at 3:41 pm
Overly conservative on housing? You truly are an idiot.
Exactly Lib. Morons like Blumpkin think we are at the starting line of something when clearly we are nearing the finish line of implosion. Hubris is remarkable right now. Student loan debt appears to be the trigger. What is bigger risk? Loans not repaid, leaving tax payers on hook… or millions of millennials forever ruined from credit cards, housing purchases etc. It won’t be pretty either way. Plus create a path for bk and you would have an idiot to pay student loans back.
The average U.S. household owes $16,061 in credit card debt.
Some of the articles grim has posted over the last few days such as people buying sight unseen would indicate that we are pretty close to euphoric I’m many markets.
Question doofus, do you see a difference below? You probably do because are a simpleton.
2005
Home prices rise another 7% due to strong demand and continued economic growth
2018
Home prices rise another 7% due to limited inventory. Prices are again outpacing wage growth.
Let me guess, the second headline states that it is not a bubble, therefore it is not.
We paid cash for our kids college; our gift to them. So in one respect it pisses me off to have student loan forgiveness on the other hand it may get the wheels turning again. I agree pull the plug on student loans and watch tuition drop dramatically.
I do love the term simpleton!! I believe I was the first to use it here on the blog. And let’s not forget blue ribbony and of course Brigadoon!! Those last two are definitely mine!!
3b – according to their website if your house has lost value or stayed the same you still must pay Unison back. All of the downpayment assistance if the value is the same and some of the downpayment assistance if the value decreases. There is no free lunch here, you will need to bring a check to the closing for your bank and unisom to close the sale. Jingle mail the keys? They will still come after for a judgement for sure.
I might have deemed someone else the Mayor of Simpleton before you. You can have Blue Ribbony and Brigadoon free and clear. Though, I 100% own the Great Pussification.
Juice…my package says, we share in the loss.
re: We share in the loss.
Damm right if the Fannnie, Feddie sausage machine starts up again.
Yes, I see a big difference.
One was the result of loans that people couldn’t afford being handed out like candy driving up the prices to unsustainable levels.
Current pricing is being driven up by people that could afford them. Sales are not at a bonfire rate, so this is clearly sustainable and expected in a low inventory environment.
Bystander says:
April 9, 2018 at 4:05 pm
Question doofus, do you see a difference below? You probably do because are a simpleton.
2005
Home prices rise another 7% due to strong demand and continued economic growth
2018
Home prices rise another 7% due to limited inventory. Prices are again outpacing wage growth.
Let me guess, the second headline states that it is not a bubble, therefore it is not.
3b,
In regards to the dual income household, just read an interesting article from MSN. In a nutshell, women that have children between 25-35 don’t “catch-up” to their pay as much as they women that have children either pre-25 or post-35.
While I would imagine that the woman having children pre-25 didn’t make much anyway, I find it interesting that 35+ yr old women would be able to make up ground after having a child.
Any thoughts?
Found Eddie:
https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrumpSpam/comments/8b1t3w/this_is_the_vehicle_of_someone_who_worships_the/?st=JFSPF9S3&sh=e427e17e
Perhaps because the assumption is the post 35 year old woman might be done at that point. I read somewhere a couple of months ago the age of first time births for women is rising.
6 percent down is not my idea of being able to afford to buy, but whatever!!
“What is bigger risk? Loans not repaid, leaving tax payers on hook… or millions of millennials forever ruined from credit cards, housing purchases etc. It won’t be pretty either way. Plus create a path for bk and you would have an idiot to pay student loans back.”
Throw in a bailout for New Jersey to the mix. I have a strange feeling that Trump’s intentional anti-blue state policies, combined with Murphy’s incredibly high level of being out of touch and tax happy like no one before him, will accelerate the departure of wealth and the wealthy from the state. This will accellerate the end of the pension. If stock market collapses a la the tech bubble or fiscal crisis. We’ll see the pain in 2019 as originally predicted by most in the late 2000s. Time will tell. From my perch, I see a lot of people working extremely hard to maintain their place in NJ’s middle class and falling behind. Mainly due to taxation. It’s getting really hard for the average Joe to keep up with the public sector. Of course, everyone in the public sector thinks they would have been CEOs had they not VOLUNTEERED to perform public service.
And I know some in the public sector who are getting out as soon as possible due to the high property taxes. Yet want the big bucks too and fully expect someone should b greatful to buy their house. When you ask how do you expect a younger couple not at the peak of their earnings which is much harder now in corporate America than the past and don’t have an awesome pension plan, you get the eye blink!!
I told you what happened when I merely mentioned that CC was the first governor in my lifetime who tried to get a handle on property taxes. I was nearly run out of town by the police force. Well, really just one friend/officer who proved that he wasn’t worth his nearly 6 figure salary if you read his argument. If the PBA (who I support) wasn’t so generous to us, I might have taken a stand. Instead, I figured it was better to not say anything. It would be a waste of breath anyway.
Looks like Jimmy Kimmel got caught with his hand ….https://i.redd.it/mwt19dw2uwq01.gif
Jimmy is hung like a rodent.
New Jersey’s Business Model
By The Editorial Board
April 6, 2018 6:32 p.m. ET
Herewith the latest installment in our continuing coverage of the race to the bottom between two of America’s most progressive Democratic governors— Dannel Malloy of Connecticut and just-elected Phil Murphy of New Jersey. This week Mr. Murphy made his bid for the lead in his state’s downward cycle.
Governor Murphy has proposed that New Jersey provide what has come to be known as “free” community college. It is already “free” in New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Tennessee. Attached to Governor Murphy’s free-tuition commitment would be an outlay of $45 million in grants, which will come out of the state’s already stretched budget.
Governor Murphy argues that this “investment” makes sense because a larger pool of community-college graduates will attract entrepreneurs and start-ups to New Jersey. “Community college is a linchpin opportunity for us,” he says. Of course making New Jersey’s community colleges free depends on another linchpin: imposing higher taxes on other residents of the state to pay for it.
The budget that Governor Murphy’s submitted last month, a 4.2% spending increase, proposes raising the state’s highest individual tax rate to 10.75% from 8.97% on incomes above $1 million, restructuring business taxes to raise more revenue and raising the sales tax to 7%. That is essentially the governance model Governor Malloy has used since 2011, with famously unfortunate economic results for Connecticut.
New Jersey is already dead last in the Tax Foundation’s 2018 ranking of state overall business tax climates. It’s 50th in property taxes but only 48th in individual taxes. Perhaps Mr. Murphy can overtake New York and California to get to the bottom.
Producing a better-educated workforce is a good idea in any state, and Governor Murphy has more work waiting for him upgrading the poor performance in many of the state’s K-12 schools, which have been free for a long time. But how will he attract start-up companies and individual entrepreneurs to New Jersey with the guarantee of higher taxes?
One silver lining: Next door in New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo’s free tuition plan for state colleges requires recipients to remain in the state for several years or pay back their grants. For now, at least New Jersey isn’t sealing the borders for graduates.
The spirit of jj lives (Sports Edition):
When they talk about being romantic about baseball, this isn’t what they mean.
The St. Louis Cardinals are apologizing and explaining away their radio broadcaster mentioning a sex act in an ad read, his improvisation giving Saturday’s home win over the Diamondbacks an odd jolt of sensuality.
Mike Shannon, the goofy, 78-year-old elder statesman, went off-script while trying to promote a tourism website.
“You won’t hear this very often, at least on air,” he said. “Yes sir, you go to explorestlouis.com, they’re going to tell you about a blow job. That’s right. Artisans will appreciate the local handmade works of art at the Third Degree Glass Factory. Glass-blowing demonstrated, or create shop and entertain in their unique event space.”
The team was quick to defend Shannon. It seemed as if Shannon knew the territory he was entering, but not according to the Cardinals.
“Our announcers read anywhere from 15-20 pieces of promotional copy on any given broadcast, and there are times when they may ad-lib to a certain extent,” senior vice president of sales and marketing Dan Farrell told the Post-Dispatch.
“We apologize for any misunderstanding. It’s unfortunate if anyone was offended. It does not [represent] the values of the franchise.”
Shannon has not offered the same mea culpa. The lovable personality, who played with St. Louis from 1962-70, has become a beacon of the community and an author of many accidental on-air quips.
Lib it’s just not worth making an argument. I just try to get my digs in where I can!
Blumpkin can’t even keep stories straight. I thought it was demograhic spending that caused the bubble not loans being handed out like candy. We can all sleep well knowing Blumpkin has deemed this time sustainable.
It’s capitaliam, nothing is sustainable long term under this system.
Demographic spending is what started the price gains in the last bubble. The zero down loans to nobodies was used to make it larger and to drag out the bubble for a little more time.
Bystander says:
April 9, 2018 at 5:48 pm
Blumpkin can’t even keep stories straight. I thought it was demograhic spending that caused the bubble not loans being handed out like candy. We can all sleep well knowing Blumpkin has deemed this time sustainable.
Bystander it’s hopeless. Just try to ignore the babble. It’s so much easier.
Reposting from the last thread as this is a great day to celebrate.
Greatness Gary! True Greatness!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2018/04/08/trump-trillion-dollar-budget-deficits-officially-begin-this-week/2/#17cbf74c1f66
Government by the corrupt, for the rich, and screwing the American working men and women. Meet the new boss same as the old boss.
Well, something changed. I just got an email from Chase stating I qualify for a $30k home equity line of credit. I bought 5 years ago and had to fight with the bank to loan me the maximum amount under Fannie Mae standards. Had to put down 40% to get the house. Hard to say if this is because I already have over 40% equity in the home or if my salary went up but if these emails are going out en masse, this echos what I was seeing in 2004.
I get snail mail from Chase just about every week offering me HELOCs and the such. Of course, I have my primary and investment property with them and shouldn’t have qualified for one with Gator out of work. Prequalified means nothing. So does their .25 apr discount which they give to anyone with a checking account. Yeah right.
Yeah, but it never popped up before. I can see if it was just run of the mill junk offers but this is the first time since buying that Chase has pushed a HELOC on me.
I have to take a break from my Twitter feed as I am laughing so hard.
But here is one where I have to stand up for Donnie in some way. https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/983501867186503689
His usual fee for speeches is $1.5Mil. So the only thing suspicions here is the discount.
I have no issue with anyone getting paid any amount for a speech. I have defended Clinton and Guiliani. If someone is willing to pay you, take it.
My personal favorite was hearing Joe Torre in the Stock Exchange Boardroom. Big Heavy Hitters of Wall Street, reduced to six year olds trying to score an autograph.
In line with the college cost theme today, this day just keeps giving.
The $25 million Trump University settlement has been finalized
https://twitter.com/axios/status/983463816317911046
Will the for-profit non-accredited colleges get their day in court?
And I’ll leave it with this.
https://twitter.com/stealthygeek/status/983522865403301888
As I mentioned days ago, NYC RE is down 25% year-over-year. All of the smart money is moving to Wayne.
I’m not that old, but I’m feeling it.
Anecdotal to the lead story- My FIL who is now 69 got called up last week by old coworker to see if he’s interested in working again.
That is just Sopranos-level disgusting. But, hey, it’s NJ.
The final sticking point is that there’s a little missing glazing on one brick in the base of the gas fireplace. The inspector called it a fire hazard. What? Half the tiles in the bottom of my REAL fireplace are cracked or missing to expose natural brick. It is NOT a fire hazard. Will keep you all updated on the proceedings. We gave 17 bags of clothes to the VA and brother and mother still have 40 pairs of everything packed up.