From CNBC:
US homeowners gained $1 trillion in the last year as their housing values jumped
Fast-rising home prices may be a roadblock for buyers, but they are putting some homeowners on Easy Street. As home prices rise, so does the percentage of home equity for those owners with a mortgage.
Home equity jumped 13.3 percent in the first quarter of this year compared from a year earlier, according to CoreLogic. For the average borrower, that translates to $16,300 in additional home equity gained during the year, or a collective $1.01 trillion. That is the biggest gain in four years.
Despite the big value gains in the past few years, 2.5 million borrowers or 4.7 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage are still underwater on their home loans, meaning they owe more than the homes are currently worth. However, in the first quarter of this year, 84,000 borrowers came up from underwater, regaining equity.
The negative equity rate fell 21 percent from a year earlier, when just over 3 million borrowers were underwater. Negative equity peaked in 2009 at 26 percent of all mortgaged properties.
“Home-price growth has accelerated in recent months, helping to build home-equity wealth and lift underwater homeowners back into positive equity, the primary driver of home equity wealth creation,” said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist. “The CoreLogic Home Price Index grew 6.7 percent during the year ending March 2018, the largest 12-month increase in four years.”
@BarackObama
“Low plastic stool, cheap but delicious noodles, cold Hanoi beer.” This is how I’ll remember Tony. He taught us about food — but more importantly, about its ability to bring us together.
To make us a little less afraid of the unknown.
We’ll miss him.
@CNNPolitics
President Trump says Russia should be allowed back into the G7
@RepJohnYarmuth
Say what you will about Trump, he sure is loyal to the country that elected him.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/behind-misleading-claims-fueling-america-s-bourbon-boom-n879651
That’s why we make our own whiskey, using locally grown grains, by hand, every drop.
I think that article is a bit misinformed. Outright lying about sourcing is one thing but being a non distilling producer is legit. Some of those whiskeys are very well received. At the bottom end of the market I don’t think people care.
Wow, did not realize this.
“The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Thursday its survey of contingent and alternative workers for the first time in 13 years. It showed the fraction of workers employed as independent contractors was 6.9% in May 2017, down from 7.4% in February 2005, the last time the survey was taken. The broadest measure of the share of workers who are contingent—meaning they don’t expect their jobs to last more than an additional year—was 3.8% last year, down from 4.1% in 2005.”
Maybe the ‘Gig Economy’ Has Not Arrived — Yet – New York Magazine
https://apple.news/ARJJxVxgPQtee4MOcTnQMyA
“Look around, and it seems more Americans are working outside traditional full-time jobs — whether as freelance graphic designers or independent contractors or Uber drivers.
Or maybe not. A government report this week suggested that the proportion of such jobs hasn’t budged in the past decade. Yet the data carries limitations that indicate there’s still plenty we don’t know about the evolving U.S. job market.
The Labor Department’s report concluded that more than 15 million Americans were working as independent contractors, on-call workers, temporary workers and for contract companies as of May 2017. That’s equal to about 10.1 percent of the American workforce, down slightly from 10.8 percent when the government last conducted the survey, in 2005.”
How big is gig economy? Gov’t study shows how little we know – ABC News
https://apple.news/AFJ4S80zgS7yZGcAbDQodaw
Gig economy jobs aren’t really taking over America’s workforce – CNN Money
https://apple.news/AAiPgibKCT32-vis6RdShdg
Interesting article on the bourbon. Last year I did a slight detour from a trip to hit the bourbon trail. One of the distilleries – Woodford or Buffalo Trace IIRC – had a large display of the history of KY distilleries. Three boards, literally hundreds of distilleries, with open date, date closed, and reason. It made me recall breweries and the demise of the hundreds that used to populate the US. Actually snapped photos of the display.
If anyone wants deep historical roots for a distillery or brewery it would probably cost less to acquire the name than the lawyers’ fees to chase it down.
Leftwing,
Brix City brewing in Little Ferry has a cool map like that of Newark breweries (doesnt have reason closed though) on its wall. Good beer there too.
Good video.
Shows how America built an empire and has prevented any global conflict in this super power position. Goes all the way up to present day with Trump wanting to dismantle this global empire claiming countries aren’t paying enough for this protection.
Video puts into perspective for me that America as a global empire is a good thing. It’s the only reason ww3 has not happened yet. Why Trump is messing with this model is beyond me.
https://youtu.be/BShvYeyMm_Y
Trump is a Russian agent of influence.
On 5/10/2017 Trump hosted Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak At White House, apart from the Russian photographer, no other US staff or security person was allowed in the oval office. No one knows what was discussed. But things that Putin wants or else.
However, when Trump tries to do those things, let’s say Russia back into G7. It makes the USA seem idiotic. Seeing the USA idiotic makes other EU and developed world countries think less about a unified post WW2 organized peaceful liberal order, and think more about “what deal can I cut with such and such”.
All of this benefit the powers that are not part of this order or as George HW Bush said “new world order” https://youtu.be/HWelpY0O0jc those being China/Russia/Iran and the usual cr4phol3s of the world.
The one thing both Dems/Reps party machines were suppossed to be able to stop were corrupt candidates that could become “manchurian agents”. Both failed miserably starting with the DEMS – Clinton’s normalization of corruption. Gingrich followed up in the GOP by lowering the bar.
Thanks a lot locust boomers.
By the same token, see todays NY Time opinion of
If There’s a Red Wave Election in 2018, This Will Be Why
By Christopher Buskirk
Republicans have long criticized Democrats for dividing the country into competing grievance groups. Some now realize that the Republican analogue has been to divide the country into radically autonomous individuals based on a cartoonish misreading of libertarianism that replaces the free markets and free minds of Friedrich Hayek with the greed and hubris of Gordon Gekko. But that is changing quickly. There is a renewed emphasis on addressing America and Americans as a community characterized by fraternal bonds and mutual responsibility — what Lincoln called the “mystic chords of memory.”
Mr. Trump tapped into this. Most Republicans accept his transgressive personality and his intentional tweaking of social and political norms because they see it as in service of those larger ideas. That will seem counterintuitive to Trump haters, but fiddling with tax rates, however necessary and beneficial, can’t sustain a political movement, let alone a nation. Issues of citizenship and solidarity — that is to say, asking what it means to be an American — have returned to the fore. This is partly because of Mr. Trump and partly in spite of him. What is important is that the tumult caused by his unusual candidacy and his unusual approach to governing created an environment in which an intellectual refounding of Republican politics became possible.
The three-legged stool of the new Republican majority is a pro-citizen immigration policy, a pro-worker economic policy and a foreign policy that rejects moral imperialism and its concomitant foreign wars. John Adams described just such a foreign policy when he wrote that America is “the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all” but “the champion and vindicator only of her own.”
Tell you the truth. I am loving Trump. I’m almost tired of winning and that 30k in my pocket is awfully nice.
So we should pay so Europe doesn’t go to waragaib?
trump is perfect for greedy myopic Americans.
The biggest kick in the face was renaming National Airport, Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport…..
The Original NJ ExPat says:
June 8, 2018 at 11:13 pm
Remember in the Reagan years when air traffic controllers went on strike? Reagan just fired them all and rehired. Everyone is expendable.
On August 5, following the PATCO workers’ refusal to return to work, Reagan fired the 11,345 striking air traffic controllers who had ignored the order, and banned them from federal service for life.
Lib: You assume everyone out there has the analytic chops of you, grim, no one, leftwing etc…… seriously, most people are hopelessly lost…… just to prevent them from pissing their life away is a massive achievement…..
I have said in the past, the major reason I hold insurance licenses is to write term insurance, and also get paid for my special methadone clinic for those refugees who’ve been sold annuities with lock-ups and fired their broker…… it is lucrative….. to be clear, most brokers take 100% of the money up front…..
Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
June 8, 2018 at 5:27 pm
And Chi,I would argue your service is worth it for someone who does not have the required time to study changes in tax law as well as changes in the financial markets. I really have nothing against the industry. I just find it incredible that really wealthy people think a higher commission equals betters results.
To give you a sense of who I am up against…….
I apologize in advance, the guy mentioned in this case is dead….. he died of a heart attack in early February…… a major client of his turned down my offer to take him into my practice…… look at what the dead man sold him, I can only describe the prospect who turned me down as extremely intelligent and hopelessly clueless…..
The court finds that the UST has meet its initial burden. The evidence shows that hundreds of thousands of dollars were liquidated from the Bank of America checking account and the RBC Investment Account in the year prior to filing. The evidence also demonstrates that those assets are largely unavailable to pay creditors. Specifically, the Debtor deposited $445,942.18 into his checking account in the year prior to filing. The Debtor also wrote checks out of his investment account totaling $381,907.47.22 Yet, as of the date of filing, the Debtor reported only $200 cash-on-hand. Nothing in the Debtor’s schedules or Statement of Financial Affairs adequately explains how $827,849.65 was used. Schedule J indicates that the Debtor’s living expenses are $21,138 a month ($253,656 a year) leaving $574,193.65 unaccounted for.
https://www.leagle.com/decision/inbco20170627690
The above is a bankruptcy filing…….
I meant to write
WHEN I look at what the dead man sold him
Generally-speaking, the US has low to zero tariffs on darn near everyone — well, we did until recently. That’s changing, and it’s changing because other nations won’t drop their tariffs.
EU nations generally levy a 10% tariff on US cars. Ours is 2.5%. Explain to me why we should allow that, when the entirety of the EU is considered a first-world nation and needs no special protection.
…
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=233616
The prospect entrusted several million dollars to that RIP predator…..and the prospect was no idiot…… at least in the theoretical sense….
Had a very productive early part of the day and taking a slight break before heading to a graduation celebration so I pull up Zillow since I spoke with a broker friend last night at another party and he said things were actually slowing noticeably…..
First off, I’m really liking Zillow’s interface, always have. New function called ‘competition for this home’ shows number of views and saves for prior 30 days. Really neat. Now showing backup for zestimates, which I always thought were garbage, gives a little more credibility.
Anyway, after poking around, gonna call a market reversal at least in the mid to higher end developing soon.
Dug through a town I like to watch. Canary in the coal mine. Top end, $2m+, was very informative. A lot of people are hung out to dry there, and a lot who had no business being in real estate to start.
Signpost one….several instances of Joe Citizen LLC buying for a knockdown and flip at this price (if you are going to form an LLC for legal and privacy, for goodness sake don’t put your home address as the corporation address…..). A couple of these people clearly aren’t going to get out whole. These people have no business in this business.
Signpost two….Too many of these homes have way too many days owned or DOM, carry cost alone is going to level them. One ‘developer’, who is entering year three of a nearly $3m project, moved his primary from joint to his wife a little over a year ago. Hmmmmm….
Signpost three….FSBO. If you really need the savings from the (discounted less than) 6% fee to make the numbers work…I just don’t know what to say.
That’s the top end. Full disclosure, it had been dead, never really recovered, but IMO it will start actually going south. Sellers just can’t carry the cost of the emotional ask forever (tip o’ the hat to 30 year there…).
The level just below, which seemed robust in this town ($1.3m-1.7m) is likewise stalling. When the top end of the market never recovered the trade moved from knockdowns at $2m plus into renos in this range. Seeing the same signs creep in here…Joe Citizen fronting money or GCing (!) the reno project with aspirational pricing resulting in DOM through the roof and FSBO to bridge.
More than few of these guys are going to get popped like a zit before prom….the buyer seems to have gone on strike against these properties.
Once pricing at these levels take a ratchet down to sell, it will flow through that $1.3+/- mid-market. Hard to get that price for the 1950s property last renovated 25 years ago when the new reno is getting gut punched to or through that level.
Anyway, my 2 cents on this topic. Obviously unknowns like the ten year, stock market, a dramatic delta in the local economy, and midterms all play into even a near term view….guess the news for me is that I assumed everything under the top end was humming….seems like it is not, or there are at least cracks showing.
Spike in inventory is going to lead price declines by at least a year I think.
I learned a lot from some incredibly smart people during my GS days. Been following their advice. Number one rule. Live below your means.
That million or higher market is a really tough market I would not touch. It’s just such a limited buyer pool. Plus you have a good portion of the buyer pool that could afford it, shrug it off, because they are far too cheap to buy a million plus property.
Looks like giants old gm was one of these type. He was recently selling his home in the 500k range.
He makes me feel like I splurged on my home. I was living in a home more expensive than a two time super bowl nfl gm.
https://patch.com/new-jersey/parsippany/former-giants-gm-lists-morris-co-home-549k
I might have been underestimating this guy. If he pulls this off, he is pure genius and is leading us towards a true free market.
“Leaving the G7 summit on Saturday, President Trump said that the U.S. might end all trade with America’s closest allies if the those countries don’t submit to his demands over reduced trade barriers. Trump also confirmed that he had told the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, and Italy that there should be no tariffs between them and the U.S. Whether Trump’s characteristically hyperbolic threat, or overarching proposal . will be taken seriously is another matter.”
Trump Threatens to End All Trade With Allies – New York Magazine
https://apple.news/AVS6mbnEWRzSybtPIDqgrtg
“We’re the piggy band that everybody is robbing, and that ends,” added Trump, who also repeated his exaggerations of U.S. trade deficits by tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. He framed his trade attacks as a defense of U.S. national security, citing the weakening the country’s “balance sheet” as the corresponding threat.
Guy really is playing everyone and is a genius. Damn, was I wrong.
“Regarding the elimination of tariffs, Trump confirmed that he had suggested totally free trade during the summit, explaining that, “Ultimately, that’s what you want. You want a tariff free. You want no barriers. And you want no subsidies. Because you have some cases where countries are subsidizing industries and that’s not fair.””
“My May 6 column briefly touched on what mostly drives long rates: variations in inflation expectations. Most pundits misunderstand inflation — thinking it comes from low unemployment and rising wages. No! My November 5 column explained it comes from fast-rising money supply. Too much money chasing too few goods and services. If the broad quantity of money doesn’t grow far faster than our economy, we don’t get intensifying inflation — or long rates”
Investors: Why you shouldn’t worry that rates will rise – USA TODAY
https://apple.news/ABsKgWoK6TvS64W5oRTF5DQ
We need to put our collective heads together and figure out what exactly is going on with economy…..are we headed for inflation, deflation, or stagnation? One thing is for sure, it’s one of the three.
I’m cimpletely all over the place. Haven’t been this unsure since 2009. My analytical skills got me to call this low unemployment number and the rise in the housing market and economy, but what should follow(wage inflation) is not happening. We need to solve this mystery together. If we figure this out early, before everyone else, we will make a lot of money off solving this puzzle. No arguing or belittling people, let’s put our minds to work and figure this out. Lots of smart individuals, we can do this!
Without wage inflation, there is no roaring 20’s 2.0. It’s completely impossible without it. If the millennials don’t see an across the board wage inflation, there will be no roaring 2.0’s because they will be unable to get the housing market to the next level with their consumption patterns. Without their consumption power in housing, the rest of the economy is unable to get its running legs. Simple as that, we need this wage inflation big time!
Still believe we boom from tax reform this year and next year, but 2020 is dead if we don’t see real wage inflation across the board. There will not be enough demand to drive any growth because the general population does not have enough extra capital to produce growth.
@BarrackObama
Sure my wife is a feckless cunt, but have you seen her arm and shoulder muscles compared to mine? What can I do except STFU?
@BarrackObama
I only come half from a sh!thole country.
Pumps sounds like you are changing your mind.
When you see an unemployment rate this low for this long without major wage inflation, something is not right. Without this wage inflation how can you grow the economy…..are you dropping prices? Prices or wages, something has to give. The consumer must be able to increase their buying power to increase the demand needed to drive boom level growth.
3b says:
June 10, 2018 at 7:45 am
Pumps sounds like you are changing your mind.
You also can lower taxes to put more buying power in the consumer hands to grow the economy. Unfortunately, we are finding out what happens when you give the tax breaks to the corporations….fat hogs took it all and did not put it towards raising the buying power of the consumer through raises. Instead these hogs concentrated capital in our economic system even more. Really can’t make this stuff up. Get a double digit tax break and pass almost nothing on to the people the tax break was intended for.
This https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GexkJcHEA9o equals this https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/quality-of-life
That’s a great interview. Never watched any Fox political news commentators. May have to do so.
Something is not right…like your predictions? Read up on U-6 while you enjoy the exhaust smells.
When you see an unemployment rate this low for this long without major wage inflation, something is not right.
Have you actually been watching u6?
I never watched any Fox News channel at all until 2016. That’s not quite true. I used to listen to Bill O’Reilly’s excellent radio show back around 2002-2004. Nothing at all like his TV show, which I tried a couple times back then and it was nowhere near as good as his radio show. O’Reilly’s radio show was a lot less political and a ton more dense with relevant information. Sadly he gave it up to concentrate on his presumably more lucrative TV show. He should go back to radio instead of trying to re-jump start his TV career. Everybody I know who has had both a radio show and a TV show I notice the same thing – The radio show is an order of magnitude better than any short format crap on the boob tube. I noticed this back in the 1980’s beginning with Sally Jessy Raphael who also had an excellent, excellent, late night radio show at the same time that her TV show was just the same old crap as all those daytime TV shows.
I think if you took away DVR and the ability to FF past commercials what little intelligent commercial TV there is would die out immediately and be replaced by 50 versions of “The View” and Dwarf reality shows. My favorite TV show, by far, is Frontline, btw. Before Frontline it was Nova. I hate the way Frontline always leans left, but it is still the best thing on TV.
That’s a great interview. Never watched any Fox political news commentators. May have to do so.
The house prices are going up every month.. I guess this is tough for first time buyers..
I get I’m screwed unless this slows down in few months..
High taxes, no property tax deduction, rising mortgage rates, nothing seems to matter.. So WTF is going on in here..
Here’s another observation I’ve made with regard to cable news. It was only leading up to the 2016 election that I took notice of liberal-leaning even the business TV channels were, CNBC and Bloomberg. It made me think that there is an empty gap for a right leaning business channel. Lo and behold, when we moved to this place 18 months ago I switched from Xfinity/Comcast to RCN. CNBC was still there in my pedestrian cable package, but Bloomberg was gone (an ala carte add-on). Lo and behold I came across Fox Business News for the first time. That’s where the extreme right echo chamber lives, where Maria Bartiromo disappeared to. Imagine the exact opposite of Rachel Maddow and you’ll come up with Lou Dobbs, who never, ever has a guest on the show that both he and Trump don’t love.
RCN == Republican Cable Network?
That’s why you need to buy immediately before you get priced out forever.
The house prices are going up every month
My landlords, who used to owner-occupy my house before they moved to Florida, were recently lamenting to me the loss of the Boston Tax subsidy. They had to put $2600 more in escrow just to keep their mortgage payment on this place only $200 more per month than they had been paying. Luckily they renewed my lease with no rent increase the month before they got the bad news, so I’m good for another year, 7/1 – 6/30 at the never increased rent. Hopefully home prices will crash in the next 12 months so I’m in a good position next year.
I was going over in my head why they would ever tell their mortgage company that they don’t live here anymore. I guess you can’t have your cake and eat it too when the cake is no state income tax in Florida.
Expat, is that you making this statement ??. I though it would be pumpkin saying stuff like that…
Well, I might very well get priced out. I have Real-estate aborad as a hedge.. Just need to move more $$$ from outside if US house proices keep moving fast in the next 6-12 months.. So thatz not a deal breaker but I hate to overpay or buy at the top of the market…
The Original NJ ExPat says:
June 10, 2018 at 4:36 pm
That’s why you need to buy immediately before you get priced out forever.
Expat,
There is no way house prices are crashing. Are legions of people going to lose their jobs and get decreases in their pay? Current pricing is not based on rampant speculation or easy credit flooding the market. It’s based on a buyer with 2008 still on their mind, not willing to go nuts driving the price up. Are there isolated markets with speculation, sure, but overall market price appreciation is being driven by demand and not enough supply.
There is no way in hell they can make up for this supply anytime soon. They were way to conservative with new construction over the past 10 years.
Pumpkin, it happened 12 years ago.. Why cant it happen again ??.
Most people are buying with FHA loans..
I dont really want it to crash but dont want it to keep appreciating crazy like this..
Twelve years ago, speculation was out of control. Everyone was a realtor and everyone was an expert at flipping. The biggest difference, people truly believed real estate could not go down. Not the case today, like I said in my last post, current avg buyer is cautious with 2008 still ingrained in their mind. They have your same mindset, don’t want to buy at the top of the market. I promise you that we are nowhere near the top of the market.
Remember, in an asset like housing, the next peak pricing cycle in a rising population is always much higher than the previous peak…..we are nowhere near it.
Cali is dead last and nd number 1. This quality of life list is bs. It’s basically saying low populated areas have a better quality of life over densely populated states.
dentss dunnigan says:
June 10, 2018 at 2:02 pm
This https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GexkJcHEA9o equals this https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/quality-of-life
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/04/03/hot-housing-market-home-buyers-spending-more-than-expected/479824002/
People are stretching their budget and add to the fact that they haven’t factored in lack of property tax deduction… This wont end well in long term…
1. Most property tax is under $10,000
2. Many with high end homes/taxes have high end income paying AMT, so they never got the property tax deduction anyway.
3. New rates and changes to AMT will further lessen impact.
Anyway if someone is paying 10K property tax, and assume making 150K plus, they would be paying around 10K state tax. They could deduct 20K before 2018.
They totally lost the deduction on 10K property tax now because SALT is capped at 10K…
1987 not in Bergen co as far as property taxes.
NJD,
Rent and wait. If you are sensing houses are starting bubble. Then you are probably right.
Of course not, because you say so. Your three degrees make you omniscient.
There is no way house prices are crashing.
Everything is bs, except what you believe Pumps.
This quality of life list is bs.
The smartest guys always live on the roads with the fastest speed limits.
Mr. Smart Man,
Please explain why you believe there will be a crash.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
June 10, 2018 at 10:46 pm
Of course not, because you say so. Your three degrees make you omniscient.
There is no way house prices are crashing.
I took my family out to IHOP (soon to be IHOb) yesterday after my daughter scored the winning goal in her last soccer game of the season. I forgot to ask if they are switching over to pancake batter in a can soon.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinatroitino/2018/06/09/ihop-to-change-its-name-to-ihob-on-june-11-the-internet-predictably-goes-wild/#a9a61a924f4c
You make fun of me…Stupidest thing I have heard is a crash is coming within a year. Where do you come up with this crap. United States real estate is already cheap on an international level and you think it will crash? Wtf?
I’ll bet you everything I have that it won’t crash within the year. No way, no how.
Maybe they’re trying to attract the Pumpkin crowd. International House of Buffoonery?
Poor pumpy pumpy. He pays more in property tax than most people pay in rent.
Expat the clown….all jokes, no substance
Of course he can’t support his position on why housing will crash within the next year….crickets.
Poor pumpy pumpy – I just noticed you haven’t posted anything on FB in over a year. Wouldn’t it be cool if you could match that record here? You don’t have any friends in either place, so you should be able to do it. Go for it.
I’m wondering, with three degrees, why does it seem like you have no friends from college…or high school? At least you accurately represent “Went” to Clifton High School, which I guess you did, before dropping out.
He’s talking about the state. He then explains that most people who have property taxes of 10,000 or more, more than likely pay taxes at the amt….deduction was never there in the first place, so why would it impact price negatively? He then explains that the new rates affect this amt crowd in a positive way, hence pricing should not be impacted negatively.
3b says:
June 10, 2018 at 9:28 pm
1987 not in Bergen co as far as property taxes.
Maybe your advanced degrees are from University of Nana?
Pump, what you mean deduction was not at that amount.. 80% of the people will lose property tax and mortgage tax deduction in 2018.. Mostly in high SALT state like NJ
This tilts the balance more towards renting.. There is no more deduction advantage for owners anymore.. Lots of people opted to buy just because they believed renting was wasting money which is no longer true post-trump tax policies.
Could be a factor when they start paying checks.. I expect to see slight correction due to this in NJ. It was supposed to be 10% .
https://nypost.com/2018/01/02/new-tax-law-is-a-huge-win-for-renters/