From HousingWire:
Case-Shiller: Home prices rising at least twice the rate of inflation
To absolutely no one’s surprise, home prices increased once again in May, and even showed double-digit gains in some markets on the West Coast, and increasing at two to three times the rate of inflation across the U.S., according to the latest report from S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic.
Home prices increased 6.4% in May, the same annual increase that was seen the month before, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine census divisions.
The 10-City Composite posed an annual increase of 6.1% in May, down from April’s increase of 6.4%, and the 20-City Composite increased by 6.5%, down from the increase of 6.7% the previous month.
The West Coast saw the highest annual gains out of all the top 20 cities. Seattle, Las Vegas and San Francisco increased the most with annual home price gains of 13.6%, 12.6% and 10.9% respectively.
Seven of the nation’s top 20 cities reported a higher increase in the year ending in May than the year ending in April.
“Home prices continue to rack up gains two to three times greater than the inflation rate,” said David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director and chairman of the Index Committee. “The year-over-year increases in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index have topped 5% every month since August 2016.”
“Unlike the boom-bust period surrounding the financial crisis, price gains are consistent across the 20 cities tracked in the release; currently, the range of the largest to smallest price change is 10 percentage points compared to a 20 percentage point range since 2001, and a 25 percentage point range between 2006 and 2009,” Blitzer said. “Not only are prices rising consistently, they are doing so across the country.”
May 2018 CS HPI NY Commuter – Unadjusted
Low Tier
(Under $307903)
Up 7.7% YOY
Up 36.9% from 2012 Trough
Mid Tier
($307903 – $491305)
Up 6.1% YOY
Up 29.7% from 2012 Trough
High Tier
(Over $491305)
Up 2.4% YOY
Up 17.6% from 2012 Trough
Aggregate
(Overall Market)
Up 4.2% YOY
Up 22.9% from 2012 Trough
Condos
Up 2.4% YOY
Up 40.9% from 2011 Trough
In all cases prices are currently sitting at 2005 levels.
Condos +20% on 2006 peak. All tiers of houses still well below earlier peaks.
Is it possible that Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Alan Greenspan are actually the same person?
Sell now or be priced in forever.
google “tax cuts” and see what comes up.
Condos hit a wall, they may just underperform all other segments in the next few months.
Basic Income pilot fails in Ontario, cancelled early. This is fairly surprising.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/lisa-macleod-announcement-1.4768626
This makes 2 relatively prominent cancellations, other being Finland.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/23/finland-to-end-basic-income-trial-after-two-years
I’m fairly interested in a topic as it rides hand-in-hand with theoretical discussions on the future of work in a highly automated, AI-powered world.
Also keep in mind that the HPI and Condo indices are not directly comparable.
The SFH Index more resembles a donut with NYC at the empty center.
The Condo Index is somewhat opposite.
Young People Don’t Want Construction Jobs. That’s a Problem for the Housing Market. – The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AAoFMmjX3SKqse2lA7XGiYQ
Agreed.
grim says:
August 1, 2018 at 7:07 am
I’m fairly interested in a topic as it rides hand-in-hand with theoretical discussions on the future of work in a highly automated, AI-powered world.
NY metro used condo values outpaced used houses by 12,000 basis points since Case Schiller data began in 1995.
Bought 3 properties at auction in last 2 weeks. First is a 2/2 1100 GLA apartment in a mid-rise in Montclair by the Acme on Valley Road. The other 2 are townhouses in Bergen County, Allendale and Edgewater. The price point is between $400,000 to $700,000 in excellent towns. Trying to buy properties with broad appeal to large buyer pools. All 3 properties will under go fully encompassing renovations. Real meat and potatoes flips.
My post at 8:43 is the reason house prices will get out of control. The supply is beyond repair. Buy now, or be priced out forever has not been this real prob ever.
As long as 30yr is bidding, there is no bubble. When he bows out because of idiot rookie bidders, the end is near.
Sorry, but you are our leading indicator.
Grim,
Isn’t that the truth! Lol
I hear that everywhere, but I can’t buy into it. I file it with the US transitioning to a “service economy”. Somebody has to make something, right? OTOH, when 3D printing advances to the point that you just need a printer, raw materials, and a file to create anything you need…I’m not sure how that turns out.
I’m fairly interested in a topic as it rides hand-in-hand with theoretical discussions on the future of work in a highly automated, AI-powered world.
OTOH, the singularity just comes sneaking up on us and the machines decide humans are a waste of carbon.
Know the Montclair building. It’s a well run property. Best of all, it’s bordered by Brick Lane Curry House and Noble East Chinese. Two excellent eateries. Then the supermarket Starbucks and other Upper Montclair joints and it’s a real great location. Even near the train too. You’ll do well.
“highly automated, AI-powered world.”
It’s coming, but I don’t see it in our lifetime. Really.
Westchester house broker: “Dramatic price reductions every single day — every hour pretty much.”
High tier will continue to lag condos. Low tier ghetto houses will beat everything on price appreciation.
Fear for condos. Too many being built plus a desire of Millenials to return to the suburbs.
Banks (plaintiffs) are represented at sheriff sales by a company that prompts the bidding up to a predetermined “upset price”. About 90% of the sales have the same company representing the plaintiff. The plaintiff provides it’s representative with the upset price the day of the sale. The enterprising company that does the bidding for these plaintiffs then started selling the list of upset prices to bidders on a subscription basis by county for all 21 counties in the state.
Sheriffs departments in NJ earn a commission based upon the sale price of the properties struck off at auction of about 2%. Because bidders are aware of the upset price they generally do not bid against the plaintiff if the upset price is not attractive. This is costing the sheriffs commissions that they would otherwise earn because if the bidders were not aware of the upset price they would be bidding to see if they could get the property. As a result of this the sheriffs have now ordered this company to stop selling the upset price information.
As a bidder having the upset prices is a huge time saver. Some bidders wouldn’t even look at properties until they knew the upset prices. They would get the upsets around 11AM. Sale is at 2PM and these bidders would scramble around at the last minute to determine if they would bid and how much. For me it was about knowing which of the 20 properties I was interested in to concentrate on for research on market value.
Since the upset prices are no longer available the attendance at sales has dropped of by about 35 to 40%. It has made my work more difficult and time consuming but the upside is the bidding has been less competitive.
Libtard, that’s what people were saying in 2006, and they were wrong.
Yo,
What are some of the more desirable towns in Westchester? I don’t know much abiut that side of the bridge. I was just looking at Irvington on Trulia and it seemed pricey. Is Irvington a sought after town?
That area up by Irvington, Sleepy Hollow, and North has some very pretty, high-end, neighborhoods.
The very wealthy Clintons live over that way in Chappaqua.
In Westchester, I like Hastings-on-Hudson, but it is difficult to find a house for sale on a flat lot near the train station. But Westchester is becoming less desirable, that is why home values are flattish there while rising 6% nationally:
Irvington is super high end as is Rye, Scarsdale, Ardsley, etc. Looks like suburban essex but is 2-3X the price. Property taxes are eye watering as well.
NY suburbs are so expensive it’s hard to go up from there unless wages are rising. In NYC there is a lot of pressure on folks working at banks, when house prices are 800k for a starter home(I’m talking 3/2 not super updated on a 1/4 acre) with 20k in property taxes you need to earn a good income to afford it and bank wages are flat to down as well as a certain amount of fear that the jobs are going away.
Condos? See my handle. Good luck.
This is indicative of the westchester market
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/153-Clarence-Rd_Scarsdale_NY_10583_M35266-31147?view=qv
“Libtard, that’s what people were saying in 2006, and they were wrong.”
I’ve been thinking about this shift back to the cities for a while. And I’m trying hard to not let my own bias (hatred of apartment living) get in the way. I think (and I could very well be wrong) you have an entire generation (and it’s the first really since the 70s) that were raised unspoiled. Between the tech bubble bursting right through the end of the damage from the housing crisis (1999 to 2012), a lot of kids were raised with much more frugal sensibilities. They feared the stock market and especially home ownership. Savings didn’t really matter since there was no place to put it where it will grow. So overpaying for rent versus paying yourself through a mortgage seemed to make sense. This is the complete opposite of what my parents taught me. Cities have always thrived when people had less. Quite frankly, it’s cheaper to live in them. And they are excitingBut I think humans inherently want space and get fed up with the issues of city life. Living among homelessness. Lousy schools. Increasing rents. Overcrowding. Etc. The kids born from 99 to now aren’t even in their 20s. If wages don’t increase through this growth spurt, they ain’t ever and a depression would be imminent. But I think it’s the former and the roaring 20’s will be back again. And with it will come the desire for more space, for investing and for a home of their own. Likewise, I think this glass touching addiction will only hold on for so long. People will still do social media. But it will not be the ONLY thing they do.
This is all IMO and I think you won’t see the major trend reversal until the early 20s. We all now RE moves like a barge. But it will swing back.
All this
JCer,
I keep waiting for the hot economy to spill into banking sector. Perhaps the securitization pipeline is churning again but usually it takes awhile before volume cranks and banks hire aggressively. I had two interviews last week but companies seem very blase about hiring. No rush at all. I have not heard back in a week on either. MasterCard wants to talk with me but hard to get excited about traveling 35 miles from CT to Westchester on Merritt pwy. It is such a disaster. Speaking of Westchester, I don’t get it. The taxes would make Montclair owners blush. I looked at Fleetwood in Mt. Vernon for a rental but taxes are so ridiculous that rent prices seemed out of line for sketchy areas. Like most of NY metro, if you bought in cheaply 30 years ago then sitting pretty but it seems downright scary to pay 600k with 25k in taxes for so-so area. Great towns along Hudson like Tarrytown and Dobbs Ferry. White Plains has good transit options to NYC but scholols are mehh. More down to earth people seemed to like Eastchester for affordability and decent schools. I don’t understand why Elmsford never got it’s act together. It is so industrial and poor but right in the heart of great wealthy towns. It screams gentrification.
Thanks all for the Westchester education.
Daughter had a fender bender a couple of days ago. The lady is in her 70’s with a SC license. Tried contacting her the last couple of days and she has not responded. (Dear daughter did not get a copy of the insurance or a pic of the plate and doesn’t know the make/model). Strange … she seems to be well off, at least home-wise in SC. What to do if I can’t connect with her today? Do I call the police in the town the accident occurred and file a police report?
Also, daughter is under 21 and needs a car for work, school, etc. Do you guys know if car rental places will rent out to her (well, me as primary I suppose) as an additional authorized driver? I seem to have read that car rentals have a 21 minimum and most only allow 25 yo and above. (Her places are not Uber doable – at least, cost wise.)
BTW Lib – I seem to recall you mentioned (as you do with most things!) a few good auto body repair places, including one in the Bronx. Can you share? Thanks.
None in the Bronx. On Newark Bloomfield border. If insurance isn’t paying use Regal. Cash only.
Thanks Lib. I will be in touch depending on how this turns out.
Yup. Definitely do Police report too. Can do over the phone.
On the Car Rental – Fox rents to 19 year olds (you’ll pay extra). Or better yet. Zip Car.
Thanks again Lib. Zip Car huh! Wonder if their insurance (or mine) covers them or Fox.
Man, you are seriously a wealth of knowledge … and, it seems in almost every subject! Think you should start a site – “Ask Lib”. I think it will do well.
Just Captain Cheapo.
And I guarantee you I’ve worked more hours on the book than anyone here at my age and in more jobs than you could shake a stick at (or whatever that means). My biggest fear is dying before I get to collect. :P
Is NJ Having a Burb Bounce Back?
https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/57286/PDF/1/play/
Is NJ Having a Burb Bounce Back?
Lib I don’t necessarily disagree with you or agree with you regarding city vs suburbs and what the millenials will or will not do. But a couple of points I would make is that many towns in Bergen Co are starting to mimic the suburbs both the good and the bad aspects. The amount of rental apartments being built is staggering in Bergen Co and as such towns are loosing that spacious surburban feel. There are apartment complexes that are almost literally being built in the backyards of single family houses.
Also my generation was the last I believe of the stay at home Moms. I think with two people working the thought of a 1.5 hour or more commute to the suburbs is not an attractive proposition for many.
https://rucore.libraries.rutgers.edu/rutgers-lib/57286/PDF/1/play/
https://www.tapinto.net/towns/new-brunswick/articles/is-nj-having-a-burb-bounce-back
The urbanization trend differs by city. Hoboken’s population peaked at 70,000 then fell to 33,000 by 1990, a sharper decline than Camden, the South Jersey counterpart. But Hoboken has added 22,000 people since 1990 That growing demand has driven up home prices in Hoboken, while Camden’s population is still declining and real estate values there are at multi century lows.
What isn’t getting much attention is the urbanization trend is slowing. You heard it here first – New York City’s population is declining. When this shows up in the data next spring, the New York Times would put out a jejune piece pressing shock. I’m looking forward to that one.
3B,
I think the work from home phenomenon will increase, negating commuting times as an anti-suburban migration factor. Though, I agree that a lot of burbs are morphing into cities. The new suburbs will be the next ring out (as someone here likes to talk about).
Good write up. Stop thinking like me…lol.
You have been alive longer than me, but you see the trends with generations and how what wasn’t cool for this generation, becomes cool for the next. It’s only a matter of time before everyone wants their “own large space” of their own again. Nice house, with a nice yard, in a good community with good schools will become highly desirable again.
You summed it up perfectly below.
Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
August 1, 2018 at 11:07 am
“Libtard, that’s what people were saying in 2006, and they were wrong.”
I’ve been thinking about this shift back to the cities for a while. And I’m trying hard to not let my own bias (hatred of apartment living) get in the way. I think (and I could very well be wrong) you have an entire generation (and it’s the first really since the 70s) that were raised unspoiled. Between the tech bubble bursting right through the end of the damage from the housing crisis (1999 to 2012), a lot of kids were raised with much more frugal sensibilities. They feared the stock market and especially home ownership. Savings didn’t really matter since there was no place to put it where it will grow. So overpaying for rent versus paying yourself through a mortgage seemed to make sense. This is the complete opposite of what my parents taught me. Cities have always thrived when people had less. Quite frankly, it’s cheaper to live in them. And they are excitingBut I think humans inherently want space and get fed up with the issues of city life. Living among homelessness. Lousy schools. Increasing rents. Overcrowding. Etc. The kids born from 99 to now aren’t even in their 20s. If wages don’t increase through this growth spurt, they ain’t ever and a depression would be imminent. But I think it’s the former and the roaring 20’s will be back again. And with it will come the desire for more space, for investing and for a home of their own. Likewise, I think this glass touching addiction will only hold on for so long. People will still do social media. But it will not be the ONLY thing they do.
This is all IMO and I think you won’t see the major trend reversal until the early 20s. We all now RE moves like a barge. But it will swing back.
All this
Don’t forget who said this would start happening around 2018. I used to debate 3b to no end on this subject.
chicagofinance says:
August 1, 2018 at 12:17 pm
Is NJ Having a Burb Bounce Back?
The urbanization is slowing. I wouldn’t say the suburbs are bouncing back – the report says 13 of 27 suburban counties are losing population.
Suburbs are seeing some resurgence because cities have become totally un-affordable. At the end of the day everyone wants a decent place to live for most people most large cities have gotten to the point where they cannot afford a good living arrangement. I would live in a city but lets just face it my home costs about what a nice one bedroom costs in Manhattan, that would be a tight squeeze for a family.
But a couple of points I would make is that many towns in Bergen Co are starting to mimic the suburbs both the good and the bad aspects. The amount of rental apartments being built is staggering in Bergen Co and as such towns are loosing that spacious surburban feel. There are apartment complexes that are almost literally being built in the backyards of single family houses.
This is expected and will continue, and continue, and continue.
Singh launched his business in August and decided to post his prices, as low as $500 for an MRI, on a banner outside the office building and on his website.
There was just one barrier to fully realizing his vision: a North Carolina law that he and his lawyers argue essentially gives hospitals a monopoly over MRI scans and other services.
Singh ran into the state’s “certificate of need” law, which prohibited him from buying a permanent MRI machine, which meant his office couldn’t always offer patients one of the most important imaging services in medicine.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/31/17629526/mri-cost-certificate-of-need-north-carolina-lawsuit
“There are apartment complexes that are almost literally being built in the backyards of single family houses.”
Such is the case here in idyllic Glen Ridge.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/essex/glen-ridge/2018/02/20/baldwin-street-glen-ridge-may-soon-contain-98-residences/329741002/
Absolutely, but the idea that northeast nj will not become desirable again was just crazy talk.
It’s just common sense. Every dollar of appreciation in nyc makes nj look like that much more of a value. Once nyc hits a peak, spillover happens. Nj is an inconvience to a New Yorker, but once nyc becomes hyper expensive, they suck it up and go for the value till they drive up the nj market to levels where it’s no longer a value to a newt Yorker again. Then you have a bust, or you start to see nyc go back up since it has now become a value with the rise in jersey pricing.
Yo! says:
August 1, 2018 at 1:05 pm
The urbanization is slowing. I wouldn’t say the suburbs are bouncing back – the report says 13 of 27 suburban counties are losing population.
Just look at the data. As soon as nyc peaked three years ago, was it a coincidence to see the gains that started happening in nj?
I think fracking put some hiccups in the urbanization trend. The price of crude oil will always figure largely into how big and how far. I don’t think there would be a lot of demand for new suburban construction right now if oil was going into it’s second decade at $145 per barrel.
I still tend to think we are cranking out a generation of small screen people who will be fine to live in small screen rooms.
Who needs large spaces when you can just put on your oculus rift goggles?
Realtor.com now shows 65 Glen Rock homes on the market.
I think the small screen thing is a fad. Like the rainbow loom. :P
Who needs large spaces when you can just put on your oculus rift goggles?
Except it’ll be more like the book than the movie.
Stu
If that house in the picture on the right is right near Broad Street, I think I looked at it circa 2004/2005.
I think the small screen thing is a fad. Like the rainbow loom.
Or anything democrats propose.
The small screen thing is a stepping stone to newer user interfaces for portable technology. I don’t think there is an heir apparent, i.e we don’t know what will replace touch screen tablets and phones but portable computing and wearables are the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/nyregion/subway-ridership-nyc-metro.html?partner=bloomberg
As I predicted a few moments ago, jejune New York Times reporter is oblivious to the fact New York City’s population has inflected negative after decades of growth, and this helps explain why subway ridership is falling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btDqtCGIgGY
Shocker
https://www.nj.com/monmouth/index.ssf/2018/08/carlos_bake_shop_closes_two_nj_locations.html
Yo, I guess NYT has to stick to their published story that NYC population is up:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/nyregion/new-york-city-population.html
The job market remains a smoldering ruin due to years of H-1B visa abuse and offshoring to India, both of which are still ongoing. US companies don’t want to hire or train Americans.
The companies that are “hiring” are generally offering only a short-term contract (6, 12, or 18 months). In my view they’re trying to wait out President Trump’s term.
The recruiters are also all from India, and can barely speak English. I receive over 100 e-mails each day, with 99.9% from a name such as “Sandeep.” I called one guy named “Steve Jones” and it was a guy from India using a fake name so people will return his calls. He had a “full time role” — for Tata Consultancy Services. What a joke.
I’ve been in the tech sector for a long time, and the job market has never been this much of a train wreck. It is not possible to overstate the damage to our country caused by H-1B visas and outsourcing.
1987, that is my point. Most of these journalists don’t have a clue about what is going on in front of them. That article compares 2017 stats to 2010, ignoring what happened in 2016. The author even hypes up Brooklyn’s growth not realizing the population peaked in 2016 and is currently declining.
When the New York Times realizes the city’s population is falling, who will they blame? My guess is Trump, not deBlasio.
Chi, thanks for that study. Looks good, probably crack it tonight.
Stu, know that Glen Ridge developer well. He’s a quality act.
Topper, going to take the other side of some advice. For a new driver I would never report an accident unless absolutely needed for the damage amount. Look at your deductible, and figure her insurance will double for at least a couple years. If the sum of the two is more than the repair cost, eat the costs of repairs. Also, don’t forget there is the future cost of the accident being on record for CarFax and hitting your sale/trade-in value. And, the police will probably not find this mystery woman (why would they even try). On the other hand, if you really need to go through insurance I seem to remember you mentioning someone must have backed into your car really hard while parked at Walmart, no?
Should have said suburbs starting to mimic cities both good and bad. But you guys figured that out.
Lib WFH is kind of mixed bag some companies embracing it others not. IBM bought everybody back to the office.
You know who reads one article about New Brunswick and automatically he believes he is right. Of course if he had read the article he would know that the article says maybe it is maybe it isn’t.
Yo it would be interesting to see if the NYC population decline is across all demographics.
Lots more homeless and begging on the subways. Thanks de blasio! And these dog lovers are not cleaning up after their dogs! A lot more poop on the sidewalks too!
According to the NYT s article most of the decline in subway ridership is happening outside of Manhattan. Interesting.
Re: the suburb/urbanization trend I suspect there will not be clarity until we go through a little reset.
We are overdue for a recession, and rates are moving up. Hopefully the reset will be either/or one of the two and not both.
Once rates notch up to normalized levels or we blow through 9-18 months of a slowdown there will be a better view of direction. Markets are distorted now, with inadequate supply and bid/ask gap due in part to the concerns above. Need the recession or rate normalization to break the logjam and see where things land to get back to a fully functioning market.
Trump – what a fuuuuckhead
subway ridership decline………uber?
Nah…like NJTransit, it’s getting incredibly unreliable. I’ve heard this from my coworkers who live in the city.
Tesla losses wider than expected, but sticks to profitability targets.
Why does the market love this guy? The only thing Musk does consistently is blow subsidies.
Got tagged. Was short. Should have guessed, musk wouldn’t have sent the snarky text to Einhorn if he was going to blow it today
Employers Eager to Hire Try a New Policy: ‘No Experience Necessary’ – The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/ArPrdpO_-SE6dYKy76zmXCw
smoke em if you got em bitchez.
dotard taking your property value to 0. get ready to march on dc. torch & pitchfork time.
gold, silver and lead.
hot, hot lead.
respeck my authority.
don’t worry you can always turn your mansion into a safe injection house
friskies eaters…bwahahahaha!!!
greedy grubbers not getting their price. get ready to leave the house feet first, greedy grubbers!!! boo friggin yaaaaahhhh!!!
don’t step on those syringes, kid…bbbbooooyyyyaaaaahhhhh!!!!
anybody got some hemp gummies?
Hemp don’t get ya high foooool.
looking to soothe myself from this pcp i took. settle down beavis.
respeck my authority.
you move back to pennsyltucky, essex?
I did….but the SoCal version. Ventura County.
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So, housing prices are soaring in over-populated, over-crowded, in-filling mandated, over regulated, over-taxed cities mostly on the coasts, while USA STEM & manufacturing pros are continuing to be dumped to bring in more alien students, exchange visitors, guest-workers, legal permanent residents, and illegal aliens… and speech, religion and the rest of the Bill of Rights…make that much of the USA constitution, and honest competition are under attack.
And yet, a few small reforms have marginally improved the national economy. Perfection/utopia is not an option. Hope springs eternal. And there is no excellent beauty that has not some strangeness in the proportion.
Please, fasten your seat-belts, and hang onto your quarks. 😎