Owners staying put is causing the inventory crunch

From HousingWire:

First-time homebuyers dominate mortgage market

First-time homebuyers may be facing rising affordability issues, but they are still outpacing the share of repeat buyers in the housing market, according to the latest report from the Urban Institute.

This is nothing new, as first-time homebuyers have dominated the mortgage market for the past 10 years, but the latest data shows that gap actually continues to grow, according to the report.

The rising share of first-time homebuyers can be attributed to the lack of repeat buyers in the housing market, according to the report. From 2001 to 2007, repeat buyers purchased from 1.4 to 1.8 million homes per year, but that dropped to just over 1 million today.

The Urban Institute explained that falling home prices after the recession prevented many homeowners from accumulating equity in their homes. But even as home prices continue to rise and homeowners are seeing a rebound in equity, the report shows repeat buyers will still not return to their historic levels.

While homeowners may have more equity, they are not likely to want to give up their low mortgage rates they locked in during the recession.

And now, the Urban Institute explained that homeowners hanging on to their homes and not moving up, combined with the lack of new home construction, will cause inventory to continue to tighten and home prices to increase for starter homes.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

28 Responses to Owners staying put is causing the inventory crunch

  1. grim says:

    From Inman:

    US foreclosures fall to 12-year-low: CoreLogic

    In an excellent sign for the housing market, more Americans are able to make timely payments on their home mortgages and fewer are losing their homes to foreclosure that at any point in the last 12 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report published on Tuesday by the real estate data and software company.

    Across the country, the number of homeowners who were not able to pay their mortgages for 30 or more days dropped to 4.2 percent in May 2018, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. Foreclosure rates — in which a house is seized due to the owner’s inability to pay — are down 0.2 percentage points year-over-year at 0.5 percent, making the current rates the lowest they’ve been since 2006.

  2. Yo! says:

    Grim, thanks for the news. Consumers so strong. Households so solid. Big news organizations (haters) will not report this.

  3. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Analysis: NJ suit over SALT deduction would help the state’s richest 1.5 percent the most

    t may take more than a grain of salt to swallow this.

    In challenging the tax overhaul that President Donald Trump signed in December, a lawsuit filed by New Jersey calculated how much more residents will pay in federal income tax because of the new $10,000 cap on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT.

    That total cost: $3.1 billion. A year.

    “What the Trump Administration enacted with the SALT deduction cap was nothing more than a tax hike on our working and middle-class families and seniors,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in announcing the lawsuit.

    But data contained in the lawsuit tells a different story. If New Jersey wins, 60 percent of the tax benefits – almost $1.9 billion – would go the richest 1.5 percent of state residents, those who make more than $500,000.

    The 280 families with incomes over $10 million would get $118 million, or 4 percent of the total.

    That reality has led some who joined Democrats in complaining about way tax cuts were distributed to criticize efforts to overturn the SALT cap.

    The SALT cap will cost families earning between $50,000 and $100,000, who make up 22 percent of all tax filers, an extra $82 each on average, or $80 million combined. Another 18 percent of taxpayers who make $100,000 to $250,000 would pay an extra $848 apiece, a combined federal tax increase of $698 million.

    It should be noted that the data the state lawsuit only shows the difference between the law Trump signed and what tax burdens would be if that same law did not have a SALT cap. It’s possible — indeed several studies say its likely — that people in each of the income brackets cited will actually pay less tax under the law, even with the SALT cap.

    Overall, a study by ITEP found that in every income group, a majority of New Jersey taxpayers will pay less next year than they did in 2017.

  4. 1987 Condo says:

    “It should be noted that the data the state lawsuit only shows the difference between the law Trump signed and what tax burdens would be if that same law did not have a SALT cap.”

    ..well that is a joke…..you need to compare old vs new, as the ATM, along with the brackets were changed.

  5. grim says:

    Not to mention that NJ pushed the deduction from 10k to 15k in response.

  6. Yo! says:

    I like Trump for USA better than Murphy for NJ.

    Home values going up faster in USA than NJ.

  7. No One says:

    The key thing to understand, that’s not really reported, is that Trump effectively raised taxes on the top 1%, while pretending that he cut tax rates. I will definitely pay a higher % of my income this year due to the net effect.

  8. 1987 Condo says:

    woops…”ATM=AMT” (or does it?)

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Italy bridge was known to be in trouble long before collapse that killed dozens – The New York Times
    https://apple.news/AZ-AMwaBITzGojtuWA3NZfQ

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one wants to pay for infrastructure anymore.

    No more slaves or immigrant workers to exploit, combined with corruption, and you have the recipe for no major infrastructure projects.

    I don’t even want to know how much it will cost to build a house in 10 years between cost of materials and labor, it will be insane.

  11. 1987 condo says:

    We just added a 23 cent a gallon tax for infrastructure.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    We just added a 23 cent a gallon tax for infrastructure democrats to loot.

  13. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Peter Strzok’s original gofundme goal was $150k. Once they hit it, it was raised two times, now up to $350k. If they hit this, what are the odds that it goes up to $500k?

  14. 3b says:

    Starter homes getting more expensive so move up homes will get less expensive.

  15. Sam says:

    Does anyone here have any experience on what to expect putting in an offer on a MTGLQ investors foreclosure property?

  16. D-FENS says:

    I would think the opposite was true.

    3b says:
    August 15, 2018 at 11:26 am
    Starter homes getting more expensive so move up homes will get less expensive.

  17. D-FENS says:

    Meanwhile, the GOP nominee for Governor in CT is campaigning on repealing the state income tax.

  18. Libturd says:

    This place is dead today. Almost as dead as my gofundme page.

  19. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    lol, at 399k and now they raised it to 500k. These guys are laughing all the way to the bank and they are going to be dining out the rest of their lives on your dime.

  20. grim says:

    Everybody living high on the hog with their tax savings I think.

    Sucking down umbrella drinks on cruise ships and at all-inclusives.

  21. Juice Box says:

    But everybody’s like Cristal, Maybach, diamonds on your timepiece
    Jet planes, islands, tigers on a gold leash
    We don’t care, we aren’t caught up in your love affair

  22. grim says:

    What’s that even mean?

  23. leftwing says:

    “It should be noted that the data the state lawsuit only shows the difference between the law Trump signed and what tax burdens would be if that same law did not have a SALT cap…well that is a joke…..”

    welcome to the idiocy of the liberal mind, static analysis.

    As I’ve said before this lawsuit is an embarrassment for any attorney dumb enough to tie their name to it. The Fed right to tax income without regard to the States is nearly without limitation. The legislation in question was properly enacted.

    Doesn’t mean you won’t find some political hack lower court judge to rule otherwise but once it hits higher courts should be an open and closed case.

    If not, quite frankly I welcome the precedent. The ability to challenge any Fed income tax provision based on ‘fairness’ and whether it ‘targeted’ a specific population is a windfall to anti-tax Tea Partiers…..

    Every tax targets some demographic specifically, and by definition that group is disproportionately disaffected (unless you give them back the exact benefit you taxed them which obviously makes no sense).

    Don’t like the mandatory enrollment aspect of ACA? Why wait for legislative rollback, the sponsors overtly stated they had to tax young citizens in excess of any benefits they would receive to fund another population cohort. Age discrimination. Same if you fcuk with Medicare, Social Security…..Next change to social benefits like Medicaid, wait a minute, I’m targeted to pay for that…counselor!!

    Again, this SALT lawsuit is so ridiculous it is an absurd embarrassment but secretly I almost hope it prevails. Anti-taxers can effectively shut down any future change to the Fed tax code with follow on lawsuits.

  24. 3b says:

    Dfens if you want to attract somebody out of their low rate mortgage than I would argue you need to lower the price to mitigate the loss of the low rate mortgage. Just my opinion.

  25. 3b says:

    Lib it’s August! Everyone is one holiday!!

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  27. Libturd says:

    “What’s that even mean”

    Psycho
    Post Malone
    Damn, my AP goin’ psycho, lil’ mama bad like Michael
    Can’t really trust nobody with all this jewelry on you
    My roof look like a no-show, got diamonds by the boatload
    Come with the Tony Romo for clowns and all the bozos
    My AP goin’ psycho, lil’ mama bad like Michael
    Can’t really trust nobody with all this jewelry on you
    My roof look like a no-show, got diamonds by the boatload
    Don’t act like you my friend when I’m rollin’ through my ends, though
    You stuck in the friend zone, I tell that four-five the fifth, ay
    Hunnid bands inside my shorts, DeChino the shit, ay
    Try to stuff it all in, but it don’t even fit, ay
    Know that I been with the shits ever since a jit, ay
    I made my first million, I’m like, “Shit, this is it, ” ay
    30 for a walkthrough, man, we had that bitch lit, ay
    Had so many bottles, gave ugly girl a sip
    Out the window of the Benzo, we get seen in the rent’
    And I’m like “Whoa, man, my neck so goddamn cold”
    Diamonds weigh, my teeths is sore
    I got homies, let it blow, oh
    My money thick, won’t ever fold
    She said, “Can I have some to hold?”
    And I can’t ever tell you no
    Damn, my AP goin’ psycho, lil’ mama bad like Michael
    Can’t really trust nobody with all this jewelry on you
    My roof look like a no-show, got diamonds by the boatload
    Come with the Tony Romo for clowns and all the bozos
    My AP goin’ psycho, lil’ mama bad like Michael
    Can’t really trust nobody with all this jewelry on you
    My roof look like a no-show, got diamonds by the boatload
    Don’t act like you my friend when I’m rollin’ through my ends, though
    The AP goin’ psycho, my Rollie goin’ brazy
    I’m hittin’ lil’ mama, she wanna have my babies
    It’s fifty on the pinky, chain so stanky
    You should see the whip, promise I can take yo bitch
    Dolla ridin’ in an old school Chevy, it’s a drop top
    Boolin’ with a thot-thot, she gon’ give me top-top
    Just one switch, I can make the ass drop (hey)
    Uh, take you to the smoke shop
    We gon’ get high, ay, we gon’ hit Rodeo
    Dial up Valentino, we gon’ hit Pico
    Take you where I’m from, take you to the slums
    This ain’t happen overnight, no, these diamonds real bright
    Saint Laurent jeans, still in my Vans though
    All VVSs, put you in a necklace
    Girl, you look beautiful tonight
    Stars on the roof, they matching with the jewelry
    Damn, my AP goin’ psycho, lil’ mama bad like Michael
    Can’t really trust nobody with all this jewelry on you
    My roof look like a no-show, got diamonds by the boatload
    Come with the Tony Romo for clowns and all the bozos
    My AP goin’ psycho, lil’ mama bad like Michael
    Can’t really trust nobody with all this jewelry on you
    My roof look like a no-show, got diamonds by the boatload
    Don’t act like you my friend when I’m rollin’ through my ends, though

  28. Libturd says:

    Just wow. And this went #1.

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