From MarketWatch:
Pending home sales stumble as housing market momentum wanes
The numbers: Pending-home sales declined 0.7% in July, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.
What happened: NAR’s index, which tracks real-estate transactions in which a contract has been signed but the transaction hasn’t yet closed, fell to a reading of 106.2, missing the consensus forecast of a flat reading.
It was the seventh-straight month in which the index was lower on an annual basis — by 2.3% in July. In the first eight months of 2018, the index has charted monthly increases four times and monthly decreases four times. In July, the pending home sales index in the Northeast rose 1.0%, while the index in the Midwest inched up 0.3%. Pending home sales in the South fell 1.7%, while in the West, they were down 0.9%.
Big picture: Housing has stalled out. In July, total home sales — existing and new — sank below a key psychological benchmark to the lowest in two years. What had been a seller’s market across most of the U.S. hit a tipping point this year, as buyers decided the slim pickings on the market weren’t worth it.
…
What they’re saying: “It appears sales activity crested in late 2017,” said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater earlier in August. “It is clear affordability constraints have cooled the housing market, especially in expensive coastal markets. Many metro areas desperately need more new and existing affordable inventory to break out of this slump.”
First / Last
Wow. Housing top late 2017. What was that? A ten-year cycle from Peak to Peak?
Did a little digging on high end Lyndhurst market. Only 2 properties currently under contract above 500,000 and both were asking $549,900. Only one closed sale in last year above 700,000 at 713 Lyndhurst Ave sold $740,000 for 10 year old colonial 3200 GLA. Nice, totally renovated sale 2376 GLA for $582,000 63 Livingston Ave.
The lower priced house you gave MLS # for is just odd. Odd lot size. Odd design. Odd is not good! Other house is clearly an amateur operation. Over 100 DOM and no price reductions. Very clearly over priced. Those homes are going nowhere until the price begins with a 6!
Timing is everything. They say.
SALT deductibility limitation impact. Case closed. Nothing further to consider
We were told by some SALT would have no effect in this area.
Lots of new housing coming on line in Bergen County. The multi family development by Paramus Park Mall is going to be a traffic nightmare!
30yr/leftwing, can’t thank you guys enough for the insight on those houses…
Isn’t this a good thing? Do we really want a bubble? Let the market stagnate for another year or two, let the buyers build up their ammo in their piggy bank, and let the demographic buyers bloc go to work in 2020. The market started heating up a little too fast, this is a great thing people.
For all you stock market technical players, do you like straight line growth or for the market to stop and take a healthy breather? Why? Now why is the housing market any different? Straight line growth is dangerous for long term pricing. End of story. It never ends well.
“What they’re saying: “It appears sales activity crested in late 2017,” said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater earlier in August. “It is clear affordability constraints have cooled the housing market, especially in expensive coastal markets. Many metro areas desperately need more new and existing affordable inventory to break out of this slump.””
pricequestion,
Why Lyndhurst?
30 year..
just that we are in this town for a long time and close to work.. Schools are not great here. We were looking at Rutherford but were kinda priced out. But no final decision yet..
Grim – Peak to Peak coverage from 2005 to 2018..
Why would you want to bailout when the party just started
Lyndhurst is a good NYC commute. I have heard Kearney is supposed to be the next hot town.
Think SALT is bad now. Wait until April 15th.
Right now buyers are acting like herd mentality. Once people are scared that the price won’t immediately go up, they stall the market. Now it’s a game of chicken between seller and buyer. Will some sellers panic and cause a downturn? Or will they be smart and hold firm? If this market consumption was based on flipping, it would go downhill pretty fast. This market is based on limited inventory, so I don’t see anyone panic selling as the fear of prices falling quickly are just not there. So I call for stagnation for a year or two. (I think pricing in our area is not overpriced, I think it’s fair value, so can’t see big price drops)
Obviously, if sellers start to panic and start dropping selling prices, throw everything I said out the door. The market will be acting out in herd mentality and will fulfill its destiny based on emotion rather than logic. Aka total stupidity.
3b says:
August 30, 2018 at 8:55 am
We were told by some SALT would have no effect in this area.
Lib I agree. That is when it becomes real to people.
Pump, remember this is national trend. So something is happening. I think the inventory issue is due to people forcibly holding to their houses bought with low interest rate.. There is not going to be a crash but a big slowdown..
SALT is an issue for me. First time buyer. I started ignoring high tax houses.. No matter how I do the math, Rent vs buy isn’t tilting towards owning.
So what we are saying….people were seriously buying houses because of a salt deduction? I just don’t get it. For the avg individual, how much could the salt savings actually be?
All things being equal SALT increases the monthly cost of ownership. How to reconcile the impact on value is what is troubling the market.
Yes a lot of them. Property deduction and mortguage deduction would have covered a lot $$ owning a house. Now both are gone for most.
At some point in time, the SALT will have to be priced in.. For folks making 150K or more in NJ, they completely lost property tax deduction. Because they maxed out their SALT deduction on local state income tax alone.
Pumps, you as a landlord can still claim all these deductions as business expense. So rents aren’t that affected..
You can rent your house to ur buddy and your buddy rents his to you and you can get around the SALT limit..LOL.
It’s crazy how the human mind works. They are saving way more through new tax brackets, but because it’s not labeled salt deduction, people feel like they are worse off. The country is going into major debt on this tax reform, that means there’s a sh!tload of more money in private hands.
Same thing happened before the last bubble run was created.
“Very low inventory meets higher mortgage rates. Starting to look like 1995-96.”
Pump, everybody is getting a tax reduction overall… BUT BUT all thing being equal as 30 year says, owning will cost more compared to renting now… Atleast for those who fall in this category or thinking. At the end of the day people will foot the tax bill and wonder what happened in high tax states…So something has to give.. Is the lower buyers or cost of a house.. Every $500 in property tax will hook you up with an additional 120K loan for your life.. not just 30 years. Go figure.
US is not a third world country. Here things work little orderly in economics and growth/inflation. So a major policy will end up in market equilibrium eventually..
Not saying everyone rents just because they save some $$ with this equation but for those people who want to buy and are are pay chek to pay check, it will filter out these folks from the market or it will change the way buyers will do their affordability math.
pumps, it is the tax code influencing behavior as it always does. So what I’m paying less taxes total? My 40k local property tax bill was really 40k*.6=24k when figuring in a top bracket deduction(Assuming no AMT), so taken in isolation a tax benefit that came with my house purchase is gone, so for the buyers that cost is factored back in.
The rate rise will have an impact, why sell when you need to buy and borrow the money again at 5 or 6% vs. the 3.5% 30 year mortgage I already have? So there is no inventory.
What’s the typical savings from NJ moving the deduction cap from $10k to $15k? How does this offset the federal SALT cap?
Let’s assume something like $150,000 income and $12,000 property taxes.
Jcer,
So with falling inventory, and a demand for housing, what will these market participants eventually do with this extra money from the new tax brackets? Me thinks they will go to work with that ammo after saving for one to two years and start competing over housing with it once they realize housing is not going lower. Market psychology shifts, and we march towards our new epic bubble in the 2020’s.
In the mean time…..
So any drop in pricing should be taken advantage of if you have the means to purchase. Aka if you can find some scared owner, try to lowball them and take advantage of their fear. You won’t regret it. Now is the time to start playing that game and shake the tree.
I get to write the taxes off on my income taxes! I heard that 30 years ago!! It was always a major factor and rationale for buying a House.
Pumps you are not entirely wrong but it is predicated on a strong economy, good wage gains, etc. In this metro with all the Bank belt tightening, the toxic tax policies, etc unless the job market really opens up and we see wage increases….NJ will go further down the Bangladesh route. Quality jobs seem to be evaporating here…..I see H1B’s as far as the eye can see.
Jcer,
I truly believe nj is heading towards a strong economy. We went through the bad times in nj already…it’s been almost 20 years. The transitions are already taking place. I just think location matters in long term economics, and nj prob has best location in the country. This is a very valuable economic hub not only to the country, but to the world. We will become an industry leader again.
Exactly. How much are they really saving from salt?
People with 40,000 yearly property taxes are almost guaranteed to be on amt.
grim says:
August 30, 2018 at 10:55 am
What’s the typical savings from NJ moving the deduction cap from $10k to $15k? How does this offset the federal SALT cap?
Let’s assume something like $150,000 income and $12,000 property taxes.
Just wanted to touch on this some more. Just as prices can bubble on pure herd like stupidity, the same thing can happen to a drop in prices. They can kill the market on panic selling real fast.
“Obviously, if sellers start to panic and start dropping selling prices, throw everything I said out the door. The market will be acting out in herd mentality and will fulfill its destiny based on emotion rather than logic. Aka total stupidity.”
Exactly what I have been saying on this blog. Very good read.
If you are playing the real estate market long term(short term is for suckers and gamblers), ignore current noise and look at the factors that really matter. Long term play is a no brainer at current prices based on this.
“To Gauge Long-Term Health of a Real Estate Market, Look Beyond Sales Prices
Issues like inventory balances and infrastructure matter, too”
https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/to-gauge-long-term-health-of-a-real-estate-market-look-beyond-sales-prices-98814
JCer,
There is no enlightment coming from Blump’s pea brain. How many years on this blog and all he does is push out his predictions. It is all coming to a head now. Over 20 years in the making. The mid to late 90s saw game changer in terms of technology/internet. Real wages in this country rose because of overwhelming need for companies to get on-line and they needed US workers. Housing was a good buy for a period of time. When this ended in early 2000s, the Fed stepped up by lowering rates, creating housing bubble and the banks gorged. From 2009 on, exploding the national debt and zero rates allowed big business to cover their losses and buy assets via cheap money. The stock market explodes as companies earnings look great for a decade. There is absolutely nothing organic about the economy. Businesses are now addicted to cheap money AND cheap labor. Even if there is a game changer on horizon, businesses will look play global wage arbitrage and US workers will not reap benefits as in the past. I spent months trying to find a job that paid a decent wage where my family would not go backwards. I failed at that. I had to take a big pay cut. I have seen nothing from recruiters or companies that says ‘desparation’ to hire workers. It is dead in job market right now for experienced folks. This fall is ‘make or break’ time for next decade in NYC area. If I get bombarded with calls in next few weeks from people who need my skillset, willing to pay good wages then perhaps there is a shot at staying out of bad recession. If not, it is all hubris and there is no desperation in the market. The area will see mass exodus of the middle class over next few years and you will be left with people who bought decades ago, holding on, the union vampires sucking area dry and the H1B influx to take scraps with a smile. You will see numerous small businesses close (restaurant, clothing etc.) as traditional customers have moved out.
“All things being equal SALT increases the monthly cost of ownership. How to reconcile the impact on value is what is troubling the market.”
Among my contemporaries (recall my age and stage in life) I don’t see hard calculations of pre- and post- tax change effects on housing values. My peers aren’t making value (and therefore buy/sell) decisions by comparing AMT v SALT or other parameters.
The effects on value I observe are more soft. Removing the subsidy has exposed the actual cost of ownership in NJ and people aren’t liking what they see so they are accelerating other decisions. Previously peers would look at the all-in cost of ownership in NJ, cringe at the taxes, but bite the bullet by saying ‘eh, there is a positive tax effect’.
Removing SALT for these people has moved front and center the actual (high) cost of this state, and they are adjusting. A lot of conversations of the sort start with “so remind me again why I am paying $40k of property tax?”. They end with families accelerating actions that were likely years off (eg, retirement property). Two good friends – both three generations in town – who I thought would never leave are actively looking out of state. The one who just sent his final kid off to college and who I could have easily seen here another ten years if not retiring in place took vacation days this month to see waterfront properties out of state.
For new buyers, it’s the same mentality. Even if the math works on the monthly the (new) unsubsidized amount of the SALT ticket is a psychological roadblock.
Impact on value in my group is not hard dollar and cents analytically derived, but soft and downward biased. It is the reason for the total meltdown of the high end market in my environs as any straight up financial analysis pre- and post-change taking into account AMT likely shows little to positive impact from the new code.
Once you clear the financial qualifications of being qualified to purchase/own the rest of the decision is heavily psychological – it’s why we stage showings, try to derive ‘fair’ price, etc. Jamming the unsubsidized cost of ownership right under people’s noses gives buyers’ pause, and accelerates exits by existing homeowners.
Ok anyone willing to admin, reach out to me so I can set you up.
Left/ By Well throughout rational posts as always. Clear concise and coherent. No misplaced delusional rah rah cheerleading. I am going to miss your posts when grim shuts down the blog.
Grim, what do we need to do ? can you give us some details..
^^^^^ 12:33p
Someone will likely step up. If to do so, or keep grim on board, be explicit if a fund raise is a prerequisite. Let’s not have some admin costs shut this down.
Grim,
Sorry to hear that you’re planning on shuttering the blog soon. I learned a lot from yo
ur insightful posts and lead articles along with many of the contributors, especially Libturd.
I applaud you for having opted not to have your blog splattered with ads, instead relying on donations which I’m sure came at a significant expense to you.
Grim, if New Jersey’s leaders past and current had even half of your resourcefulness, intelligence and common sense, the State would be an economic dynamo rather finding itself in the sorry state that it is.
While I wish you’d reconsider closing this blog, if not, thank you for providing this excellent resource over these years and best of luck to you.
Folks, we shouldn’t let this go down…
Grim, I just sent you a $26 amazon GC to cover cost. Just a symbolic way to cover 1% of you hosting cost for the past 13 years. Please check.
Everybody, as much as Grim doesn’t have time, it is also appropriate we donate to the cost of the blog to keep it going and as a gesture for all the hard work that has gone in. Lets do a round of funding. Use the paypal link or just send a amazon GC if you want to remain completely anonymous..
Topper, starts with you…
Good idea NJD. Done. Thanks Grim.
Bystander, great…
For those who don’t have paypal or don’t want to use paypal, just go to amazon, add a egift, choose amount, put your own email in the To- Field ( or even Grim’s email which u get when u click paypal link on the blog) , order, wait for a few mins to get the GC code and send to his email.. I didn’t ask grim about this method but I guess should be OK.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01FIS82WQ/ref=s9_acss_bw_cg_gclptcg_2a1_w?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=merchandised-search-3&pf_rd_r=Z2FN2C79HS52K40K33V5&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=47a250f7-7205-419a-8ed8-614aaf31cd1d&pf_rd_i=2238192011
Short term is for gamblers and suckers? Pumpkin, making millions for investors. Average purchase to final sale 9.3 months.
Please stick to what you understand.
Thanks 3b..I feel same. Lots of great, insightful posts. I read more than I ever posted. I laughed at the wit of many posters, even those I disagree with quite often. I miss JJs debaucherous stories and brutal honesty. Mostly I will miss Clot’s sensible negativity and wordsmithing. A true Bukowski reincarnate. Hope he stops in to say farewell..
Bystander, I’m a technology guy, development manager/lead developer C,C++,Java,Unix,Big Data (Coherence, Hazelcast, Gemfire,etc experience) with experience as an architect. 5-8 years ago I would get unsolicited job offers annually, and would get phone calls from 3 recruiters every week. I fi wanted a job I could get 3 offers in a few weeks time. I get a different sense at the moment, the job market doesn’t seem strong especially for people who are highly paid(if you make 200k or more your mobility seems limited at the moment).
I have a friend who is an experienced Network Engineer who used to be the CISO of his organization. He has wanted out of his current spot for 2-3 years(he was effectively demoted) and has had one promising job lead in that time. I know another guy who is senior developer who recent went to MS and it took them like 8 months to hire him. Most guys I talk to are adding less cheaper talent(so young people, H1B guys).
JCer,
Here was eye-opening read from Pew about H1B approvals from 2010-2016. The NYC metro area had a whopping 247,000 H1b approvals! The next was Dallas with only 74K approvals. This does not take into account Trenton, Stamford, Philly/Camden areas which really overlap with NYC metro area for jobs. It is more like 300K! Sure, we have 24 million people in the area but compare to Boston which has like 8 million in the metro. They only had 38K approvals. I thought many health/biotech jobs would be filled with H1Bs? It makes no sense other than it reiterates point that finance industry is screwing us harder than other sectors.
Blumpkin will never get it. It is absolute decimation for middle class NJ and it is not getting better.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/29/h-1b-visa-approvals-by-us-metro-area/
This is a text from my good friend who is a general contractor. The labor market is tight. Bystander, your industry is an anomaly right now. All I can say is that the market has dictated that your field was simply overpayed for what it does. I can’t wrap my head around a high skilled occupation being replaced by less skilled individuals who will do it for less. High skilled jobs should not be easy to replace…is your job really high skilled or just a bunch of big words used to describe a simple task?
“Been insane man. Tried finding more guys and can’t. White people are lazy. This new generation is fu$ked. Once we go to retire I don’t know who is going to do manual labor!”
That text was from today.
And bystander I’m not attacking you. I’m trying to figure out what is exactly going on in your industry. I don’t understand why these companies would want less skilled foreign labor for such a high skilled job? It makes no sense.
It’s like if I’m a high skilled salesman. You can replace me with someone for a smaller percentage, but you sure as hell are not getting the same sales.
So how is your industry getting away with replacing so called high skilled positions with lesser talent willing to do it for much less? What is the impact? Everything has a cost.
Is there a way that your field can form a unionto protect yourself?
Lefty,
I know you hate me and I’m not directly responding to you. I’m just showing you why you are prob wrong about the high end market. It’s oversupplied. It’s the only market they have been adding new supply to.
“When gauging the health of a real estate market, it’s tempting to focus on sales numbers, and median and average prices. But to determine the resiliency of a location, and the potential for returns on investment, there are indicators beyond sales prices and supply and demand that should be factored into your calculus, experts say.
“Most observers of the luxury market have it wrong,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel. “We had a red-hot luxury market nationwide in 2011 through 2013, and in 2014 we came to peak luxury.” People tend to zero in on pricing, he said, but there are other factors to consider in order to make a smart investment.
Since then, luxury markets in the U.S. have suffered from an excess of inventory and a decline in sales, he said. Mr. Miller attributed a recent uptick in luxury sales not to a change in demand, but to sellers lowering prices to be more realistic.
To get a more holistic picture of the state of local markets around the world—and avoid being misled about its long-term prospects—investors must turn to other factors, like inventory, infrastructure and cultural attractions and the strength of the economy.
Price trends are what happens when the dust settles,” Mr. Miller said. “Really, when you’re looking at the health of markets, you want to see balanced inventory.”
Recently, he added, luxury markets have been struggling with excess supply, and buyers seeking deals at the high end are finding softness at the top of markets—that is, an increase in discounts and inventory. The latest Douglas Elliman market report, for instance, found inventory rising and the absorption rate slowing for Manhattan luxury real estate.
And this trend can be observed across the U.S. “A tremendous amount of product has been built over the last four to five years nationwide, and the steady pattern is that properties are significantly overpriced, well above what market conditions dictate,” Mr. Miller said.
The outcome is that high-end listings languish for longer periods of time—until sellers come down in price. But an uptick in transactions as sellers offer discounts to buyers does not necessarily indicate that a market is improving. Rather, this can be seen as evidence that buyers have been patient and sellers are now pricing their homes more realistically.”
https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/to-gauge-long-term-health-of-a-real-estate-market-look-beyond-sales-prices-98814
post of the day…..
leftwing says:
August 30, 2018 at 12:26 pm
“All things being equal SALT increases the monthly cost of ownership. How to reconcile the impact on value is what is troubling the market.”
Among my contemporaries (recall my age and stage in life) I don’t see hard calculations of pre- and post- tax change effects on housing values. My peers aren’t making value (and therefore buy/sell) decisions by comparing AMT v SALT or other parameters.
The effects on value I observe are more soft. Removing the subsidy has exposed the actual cost of ownership in NJ and people aren’t liking what they see so they are accelerating other decisions. Previously peers would look at the all-in cost of ownership in NJ, cringe at the taxes, but bite the bullet by saying ‘eh, there is a positive tax effect’.
Removing SALT for these people has moved front and center the actual (high) cost of this state, and they are adjusting. A lot of conversations of the sort start with “so remind me again why I am paying $40k of property tax?”. They end with families accelerating actions that were likely years off (eg, retirement property). Two good friends – both three generations in town – who I thought would never leave are actively looking out of state. The one who just sent his final kid off to college and who I could have easily seen here another ten years if not retiring in place took vacation days this month to see waterfront properties out of state.
For new buyers, it’s the same mentality. Even if the math works on the monthly the (new) unsubsidized amount of the SALT ticket is a psychological roadblock.
Impact on value in my group is not hard dollar and cents analytically derived, but soft and downward biased. It is the reason for the total meltdown of the high end market in my environs as any straight up financial analysis pre- and post-change taking into account AMT likely shows little to positive impact from the new code.
Once you clear the financial qualifications of being qualified to purchase/own the rest of the decision is heavily psychological – it’s why we stage showings, try to derive ‘fair’ price, etc. Jamming the unsubsidized cost of ownership right under people’s noses gives buyers’ pause, and accelerates exits by existing homeowners.
“Removing SALT for these people has moved front and center the actual (high) cost of this state, and they are adjusting.”
“Once you clear the financial qualifications of being qualified to purchase/own the rest of the decision is heavily psychological”
Cream of the pithy post….
NJ RE is not black and white…… shades of gray…..
Big concern is whether people find themselves under final duress due to unrealized (but projected/expected) real estate gains and it spills into debt markets….
My industry? How about the industry that supports most of NY metro area. You are a clueless moron. Your landscaping buddy can’t find white people to cut lawns so must be a hot labor market. There is no way you work in white collar job. You think project managers just write words on paper? You have to be organized, a problem solver, an influencer and a polished presenter to MDs and execs. Sure, there are PMO paper pushers who I often find little value with but I am hands on delivery PM. If there is significant investment then someone needs to see it gets done. We are in a dangerous stage with banking sector. They have too much time to think about bottom line costs. Front office will invest when revenue opportunities are being lost or when regulatory violations are a threat. Right now, neither are happening so they are focused on cheaper labor costs. A normal brain gets this instead of searching for a retarded answer that supports his rah rah narrative.
Bystander that H1B number is telling. I see it as I sit in a large bank as a part of a huge modernization project. They have more staff then ever before but most have come through the body shops(Wipro, Cognizant, TCS, CapGemini, EPAM, etc) and there are tons of postings in the break rooms for H1B’s with pithy salaries(75k-100k for engineers, BA’s, PM’s, etc all with experience). The Banks right now have the mindset that for a cost of 150k(their cost not even salary!) they can get an on-site person with almost any skill they can imagine(not reality!but I digress).
The other thing is MONEY! Today I see people making lateral moves without the customary uptick, that indicates to me there is not a supply issue for talent as companies aren’t competing for the employees any longer.
Bystander, why even respond? Not only did he walk up to you and pee on your leg, he took the effort to unzip twice more and do it again.
“Pumpkin Free Since October, 2017”
Then how are they replacing this position with people off the boat with less skill? How? It’s not making sense to me.
“There is no way you work in white collar job. You think project managers just write words on paper? You have to be organized, a problem solver, an influencer and a polished presenter to MDs and execs.”
Who are these people? Are we strictly speaking high end? Normal people do not account for these costs, they simply only care about the monthly payment and if they can afford it. So for the mid and lower tier, I think they can give two craps about salt.
chicagofinance says:
August 30, 2018 at 2:55 pm
“Removing SALT for these people has moved front and center the actual (high) cost of this state, and they are adjusting.”
“Once you clear the financial qualifications of being qualified to purchase/own the rest of the decision is heavily psychological”
Cream of the pithy post….
And bystander…I’m asking honest questions. Nothing is meant as an insult, so don’t take it that way please.
Pump,
If normal people don’t care, why did murphy and cuomo work hard to come up with a “property tax charitable Donation ponzi scheme” to get around SALT?
Nobody is saying SALT is slowing down RE market, it maybe a contributing factor. You won’t have clarity until next May.
Pump, have a question. What industry do you work in ??
He’s a general contractor aka builder. He’s speaking for skilled positions in manual labor. He’s also reflective of north jersey labor market.
“Your landscaping buddy can’t find white people to cut lawns so must be a hot labor market.”
For the usual suspects. Rich, old, and established players that donate lots of money to gain influence and vote on a regular basis. You think they are focused on regular joe blow. The rich b!tvh and they listen.
“If normal people don’t care, why did murphy and cuomo work hard to come up with a “property tax charitable Donation ponzi scheme” to get around SALT?”
Normal people DO account for these costs. Job blow knows its out there, but has no idea how to calculate it => HENCE FEAR => HENCE INACTION => SLOWDOWN IN RE MARKET…….. full stop? NO….. as left and others have noted…. AN INCREMENTAL FACTOR in a complicated decision….
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 30, 2018 at 3:47 pm
Who are these people? Are we strictly speaking high end? Normal people do not account for these costs, they simply only care about the monthly payment and if they can afford it. So for the mid and lower tier, I think they can give two craps about salt.
chicagofinance says:
August 30, 2018 at 2:55 pm
“Removing SALT for these people has moved front and center the actual (high) cost of this state, and they are adjusting.”
“Once you clear the financial qualifications of being qualified to purchase/own the rest of the decision is heavily psychological”
Cream of the pithy post….
Left,
Don’t give him too much credit. We all know he sits down to pee.
It astounds me that someone can be so obtuse and insulated about working culture in Northeast. He does not get that H1Bs are educated and probably speak/write better English than many American workers. The only area were they struggle is standing up to authority and exec stakeholders. Not ingrained in them. The reason my expertise is hurt by H1B is due to lack of expediency of investment. If the banks don’t have overwhelming need to accomplish something then then default to cheapest talent that appears to get them over the fence. If that person fails and project time erodes then they bring in more expensive and experienced person. That is me. Right now, banks have taken step back with Trump in office. Expecting regulatory rollbacks or non enforcement. I worked on securities based swap project for SEC compliance earlier this year. It has been pending for awhile but now company won’t fund it bc it may never get enforced. Things like this are all around and floating. H1B fills that gap cheaply…or young workers with only few years PM experience. I am seeing that very clearly. Only compliance area where still seems to be alot of heads is KYC. Lots of roles there but not my background really.
….and to anticipate your next question…
The economy is doing well…… so where is the fcuking money going then?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC
breit bart com/immigration/2018/08/29/dhs-tightens-curbs-h-1b-program/
Aug 29, 2018
Officials at the Department of Homeland Security have tightened an obscure regulation in the H-1B program, likely curbing companies’ ability to outsource additional white-collar jobs to cheap visa-workers living in the United States.
news week com/h-1b-visa-crackdown-doj-charges-c\\eo-fraud-nearly-200-h-1b-visa-applications-1097174
Aug 30, 2018
The U.S. Department of Justice has charged a Seattle-area CEO with visa fraud, accusing him of abusing the country’s H-1B visa program by using falsified documents to hire as many as 200 foreign workers.
axios com/john-mccain-joe-biden-funeral-speech-e0258d28-4b2a-4f95-babc-4851dbb19192.html
Trump’s “Hire American” order makes it harder to get H-1B visas
Jul 25, 2018
Immigration officials required more information from high-skilled H-1B visa applicants last year, and denied 22% in the last quarter — up 41% from the previous quarter, according to a new study by the National Foundation for American Policy.
Winning, more jobs for Americans on the way!
cnbc com/2018/08/28/tech-companies-h4-holders-brace-for-trump-administration-changes-to-h4-visas.html
Aug 28, 2018
Spouses of immigrant techies fear the Trump administration will soon revoke their ability to work in the US
The Department of Homeland Security is looking to revoke a rule allowing some H-4 visa holders, spouses of H-1B holders, to work in the U.S.
U.S. executives Tim Cook, Ginni Rometty and Jamie Dimon have spoken out about this, saying it could cause highly skilled immigrants to take their talents to other countries.
Still waiting on my e-govt candidate. If they promised to outsource every town and school admin role to India for 1/4 salary along with no future health or pension costs, who votes that down? Think planning water and roads for a billion people might bring some experienced candidates for Montclair? Imagine promising 30% prop tax reduction. You provide data, budget and proposals via web conference and they oversee meetings, analysis and approvals.
Thank god for Murphy.
New Jersey’s gas will rise another 4.3 cents per gallon Oct. 1, Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration announced Thursday.
Murphy’s administration can make the change administratively, under a 2016 law that raised taxes on gasoline 23 cents per gallon. That law says that if the 23-cent gas tax brings in more or less than expected, as consumption rises or falls, the treasurer can adjust the rate to keep it on target.
This year, motorists bought less gasoline in New Jersey and revenues are lagging. That fueled the need to raise the gasoline tax, which provides funding for New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund.
Donnisky,
Stop playing in the internet and give me back my $4 billion I lent you to finance your crappy hotel operation. I got scr3w3d by not realizing your kids are m0rons.
You got to 1 week before November election. Then I release your tax return, your golden tapes and if need be the male midget and horse tape, and let all of the 5 illegitimate mexican kids know who their real daddy is, Schwarzenegger had nothing on you.
Just like that, a 10% hike in the gas tax.
Man never met a tax he didn’t like.
Compare and contrast:
President Donald Trump told lawmakers on Thursday he wants to scrap a pay raise for civilian federal workers, saying the nation’s budget couldn’t support it.
In a letter to House and Senate leaders, Trump described the pay increase as “inappropriate.”
“We must maintain efforts to put our Nation on a fiscally sustainable course, and Federal agency budgets cannot sustain such increases,” the President wrote.
An across-the-board 2.1% pay increase for federal workers was slated to take effect in January. In addition, a yearly adjustment of paychecks based on the region of the country where a worker is posted — the “locality pay increase” — was due to take effect.
Sooooooo much meat on that bone. 🎃
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 30, 2018 at 10:23 am
It’s crazy how the human mind works.
How did we go all of these years without referring to Pumps as the Headless Horseman?
http://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/scifi/ichabod-crane-travel-time-foxs-sleepy-hollow-pilot.html
Ross Perot would be proud of the giant sucking sound on that one. Lol
Bystander says:
August 30, 2018 at 4:58 pm
Still waiting on my e-govt candidate. If they promised to outsource every town and school admin role to India for 1/4 salary along with no future health or pension costs, who votes that down? Think planning water and roads for a billion people might bring some experienced candidates for Montclair? Imagine promising 30% prop tax reduction. You provide data, budget and proposals via web conference and they oversee meetings, analysis and approvals.
Well explained including the follow up question and answer on your next post. Thank you.
chicagofinance says:
August 30, 2018 at 4:11 pm
Normal people DO account for these costs. Job blow knows its out there, but has no idea how to calculate it => HENCE FEAR => HENCE INACTION => SLOWDOWN IN RE MARKET…….. full stop? NO….. as left and others have noted…. AN INCREMENTAL FACTOR in a complicated decision….
You know it’s hard not to respect what trump is doing. I truly hope he is able to come through on his pledge to end that awful h1 program. Think of the impact that will have on our economy, esp the housing market, if he is able to stop this crap.
Give him a chance, he might put this state on a good path.
grim says:
August 30, 2018 at 5:03 pm
Thank god for Murphy.
It fits, since I’m accused of terrorizing this blog.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
August 30, 2018 at 7:02 pm
How did we go all of these years without referring to Pumps as the Headless Horseman?
Nah, you’re a harmless dope.
Trump to Nation: “Eat my spinster”
What people don’t get about H1B and L1B is that it is the engine that fuels offshoring. Without H1B’s/L1B’s most offshore technology straight up would not work, people need to be on the ground to talk to users for anything non-trivial the cost and time delay required to write adequate requirements dwarf the savings.
The H1B will show up at work during the day and then communicate the work back to the folks offshore at night in a way an american would refuse(no US citizen will sit in the office for 8-9 hours and then while at home communicate with the offshore team for 4-5 hrs a night. I was talking to someone who works at a large UK bank and he described it as modern day slavery.
Here is the deal, people put up with it because they cannot lose their jobs. I have friends who came over on the program, they refer to the guys who get the visa to get you out of India as Pimps. The pimp gets you here and pretty much abuses you, you have to deal with that for a few years than you try and find a regular company(not a body shop…) to sponsor you so you can transfer your visa, hopefully you never get canned and can get a green card after 10 years of this non-sense or you find a us citizen to marry.
Kids out of school make more than the h1b guys. But the h1b are indebted servants to their consultancy agency who sponsors their visa to stay in America…
35 years ago the indentured servants were UK nationals, and they all worked at NY banks for half pay.