From Bloomberg:
Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags
Despite a robust U.S. economy, at least as measured by gross domestic product, real home price growth is locked in a cyclical downturn. If that’s not bad enough, it will likely get worse based on the same approach and factors that correctly flagged the housing bust – in real time – in early 2006.
Home prices are highly cyclical and, as everyone discovered from the last recession, their movements can have material consequences for the broader economy. Yet, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Aug. 1 monetary policy meeting, policy makers are only starting to recognize the “possibility” of a significant weakening in the housing sector as a “downside risk.” Our research suggests that real home price growth has already entered a cyclical downturn that is likely to intensify. Data this week is forecast to show a drop in housing starts and existing home sales.
Part of the reason for the worsening outlook in home prices is the plunge in housing affordability, which is generally a function of the ability of a family with median earnings to buy a home at the median price. This metric – the National Association of Realtor’s Housing Affordability Index – recently dropped to a 10-year low, partly as a consequence of rising mortgage rates. But it’s not just about higher borrowing costs. Affordability has also been undercut by the steady rise in the ratio of median existing home prices to the median earnings of full-time wage and salary workers. This ratio recently reached a 10-year high, with the median cost of purchasing a home equaling almost six years of a worker’s earnings before easing slightly, according to our research.
…
With the Fed determined to keep hiking rates and broader housing affordability remaining tough, it’s difficult for home prices to gain much traction. And it’s hardly reassuring that the level of real home prices appears to have peaked for the first time since the housing bust.
frist
Stormy lawsuit dismissed
Trump 102
Resistance 0
Murphy collapsing under The weight of his own malfeasance. I suppose he will be debating the meaning of the word “it” soon.
Repost
Bob Hugin has a new political commercial against Menendez and his activities in the Dominican Republic
Gloves are off
https://mobile.twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1051881529767587840
Oof
http://amp.kjrh.com/2948480746/cherokee-nation-issues-statement-on-sen-elizabeth-warren-s-dna-test-results.html
More than one rape allegation against Alvarez now.
Jersey democrats looking awfully hypocritical.
Hughin supported Menendez in 2012
#twobobsnodifference
Go Sabrin!
Grewal and Murphy looking pretty shitty right now.
Murphy has always looked sh1tty. Looking forward to the NJ Transit protests whenever they begin.
With the latest gas tax increase, DE is now cheaper, closer and no bridge involved so I tank up closer to home. That was the last regular source of revenue NJ got from me aside from tolls. If only I could convince my law firm to move across the river, I could completely cut my financial ties with NJ and sever that siphon Trenton has in my pocket.
cont.
Even if the firm doesn’t move (and it is but to Moorestown), I don’t pay NJ taxes so tolls are the only thing NJ gets from me.
For a while, I did consider buying NJ property because I was thinking of buying a beach house but I also like to ski and some ski resort areas are 2-3 season. So I will probably get the ski house and rent for beach. Also, ski houses don’t get wiped out in hurricanes.
Mike S says:
October 16, 2018 at 9:04 am
Hughin supported Menendez in 2012
#twobobsnodifference
If you think there is no daylight between Hugin and Mendendez, you are smoking something that will never be legal in NJ.
I’ve met Hugin on a few occasions and thus far the only surprise is that his campaign has gone negative to this degree. Not that this isn’t the Jersey way, it is, but it doesn’t match the man.
The number of job openings in the U.S. climbed to a record 7.1 million in August, reflecting strong growth in the economy and the best labor market in decades.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-job-openings-jump-to-record-71-million-2018-10-16?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Any questions?
off Italics, I hope.
I pretty sure Slick Willy sings this to his wifey all day…..
https://youtu.be/tbNlMtqrYS0?t=154
I re-watched Mystic River over the weekend. Did Clint Eastwood make his director bones on this film? Anyway, great film, I completely mis-remembered the ending. It’s on Netflix.
Comrade – Hugin’s Campaign manager is a woman. I gather she figures unproven allegations about Menendez, just like the unproven allegations about Kavanaugh can move the needle. The best propaganda is the stuff you can’t tell is propaganda.
“twobobsnodifference
If you think there is no daylight between Hugin and Mendendez, you are smoking something that will never be legal in NJ.”
The American Left is a bankrupt political philosophy pushing them by necessity into specious arguments and claims.
Hilarious, the feedback on Warren. Of course MSM highlighted the results as definitive proof notwithstanding the statistical shortcoming. Wonder if they will give as much coverage to the Cherokee Nation pronouncement.
Although I’m somewhat saddened by Chief Warren’s predicament as, if she were to be the Blue nominee, 2020 is in the bag for the Repubs.
Saudi consul hightailed it out of Turkey
I’m wondering if Warren doesn’t get upset by Diehl in a few weeks. I live in Boston and I’m observing unmolested Diehl signs in more than a few yards. Of course, I live in a nice section of Boston;-)
I would like to see Jerry Brown take a run at it. Yeah, I know Laff it up,
But Gov Moonbeam is the right man for the job.
Better than the Orange Octagenarium………
Punk Ass BBBish..
I think the Saudis need to hang their 15 head “interrogation” team(or proxies) in public this week to get out of this.
Maybe I think too much like an engineer, but I think the sudden disappearance of the “exit” closed circuit videos count for a lot?
Deficits are waaaaay up. Oh Cry Thee Republicans? Where is your fiscal acumen ?
Gone the Way of Sears. Don’t worry Kids it’ll be great! Just take one of those ‘Jobs’ I’m looking at shift mgr for a mobile ButtPlug mfr. The Stack isBack!!~ said no one. Buckle up.
Does anyone think that ExEssex is not a degenerate drunk?
Anyone remember the “we are your friends” ads run by the Saudis after 9/11 — came on the AM radio…..Shake my head…..But in fact Israel loves Trump. Go figure.
We know he doesn’t ride a Harley anymore. I expect that his wife doesn’t let him drive the girly family BMW either.
I think the Saudis need to hang their 15 head “interrogation” team(or proxies) in public this week to get out of this.
Surely they have 15 criminals waiting to be hanged anyway.
11:52 Degenerate? yeah. Drunk. No. I need to drink more. Actually. Its healthy they say and I like Bourbon. One Run Kentucky Only. No, my friend just a very regular dad who is tired of the BS in most jobs and hides away in a recording studio most days. Check this guy out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yb26D8bBZB8
He’s the only G-d I’ve ever worshipped. Really.
He’s just kind of stuck. No rain. He’s a kind of…well a kind of….a just nowhere guy.
Expect his rebuttal very soon…..and then it will continue in earnest 12 hours from now.
^^^ I was two minutes early.
Is this it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8mY_h0EIBw
ExEssex says:
October 16, 2018 at 11:53 am
Anyone remember the “we are your friends” ads run by the Saudis after 9/11 — came on the AM radio…..Shake my head…..But in fact Israel loves Trump. Go figure.
Heh-heh. Of the reservation, as I presumed. I don’t think ExEsses, like Pumps, has a live….except, kind of fractionaly….here. His future comments are sure to confirm my hypothesis.
grammar is a lure
Good share. This really makes me sad. This article basically points out how the top of the society is slowly destroying our society by acting like children (both sides of the rich elite have lost their minds). My way or the highway, right? Compromise? What is that? This nation is doomed if this does not change. Really sad.
leftwing says:
October 15, 2018 at 11:32 pm
Very good article.
90% of the posters here belong to the 6 or 8 percent.
As do, without irony, the commentators on the Times article.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/politics-race-white-tribalism.html
Expat,
“I’m wondering if Warren doesn’t get upset by Diehl in a few weeks. I live in Boston and I’m observing unmolested Diehl signs in more than a few yards. ”
No chance. Not in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts. They are left alone out of pity.
Nom – Remember the “Kennedy Seat”? (hint: Scott Brown)
ExEssex says:
October 16, 2018 at 11:52 am
Deficits are waaaaay up. Oh Cry Thee Republicans? Where is your fiscal acumen ?
Still better than the Left’s fiscal acumen. The only reasons Obama didn’t collapse the economy were (a) it was already down and (b) the GOP didn’t let him.
If he got his way, there’d be no way we wouldn’t be halfway to Bernie’s soc1alist utopia, a.k.a. Venezuela-lite.
Well, back to work. Someone has to pay for your SNAP benefits.
My bottom line, you couldn’t poll Trump supporters effectively in 2016. I think they are less “pollable” now.
Only reason Murphy got elected was the misbehavior and hubris of Chris Christie and his cronies. Had little if anything to do with Murphy’s credentials or policies.
Housing correction is upon us. Raise the rates again, and let’s get this over with. Buy up the depressed assets, and then sell into the next wave. Some things change, and some things never change. Under capitalism, these cycles will never end. So play the game.
Do the democrats have a platform? How can anyone who is moderate or independent vote for these screaming misfits?
“We are seeing the weakness spread widely. There’s a contagion, like a wildfire among the forward looking indicators that’s not going to be snuffed out. The nature of recession is not a statistic. It’s a vicious feedback loop. Sales fall, production falls, income falls and that depresses sales. We’re in that and it’s goong to run it’s course.”
Who? Lakshmi Achutan, the clown who wrote article saying housing is in cyclical downtown
When? 2011
Lakshmi seeing bad news implies several more years of good news. So plenty of years to run for US housing.
Amazingly, Lakshmi heads up the Econmic Cycle Research Institute. He got his economics training at Fairleigh Dickinson.
Lakshmi, US is most affordable housing market among similar countries in the world. No affordability in this country. See page 18.
http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf
No affordability problem in this country.
“Deficits are waaaaay up. Oh Cry Thee Republicans? Where is your fiscal acumen ?”
Republicans got smart and took the Blue playbook.
Red was always the stern parent, trying to be responsible. Blue was the parent with no curfew time and flipping twenties to the kids when asked.
Kids like the latter better.
Red figured out that if the deficit is going up anyway, they might as well spend it on their kids.
12:19 The platform is to provide some balance for the Anus you imbeciles put into power. A tax cheat, a veritable agent of the USSR, and a failure in everything he’s touched. He was born on 3rd base, and stayed there. What a marooooon.
I think you are both correct. There is no doubt that we have currently peaked in the current real estate cycle. Since the economy is so strong, this will be a quick correction. For all we know based on the data, the correction could almost be finished and in spring it returns to its normal course of growth. Next decade is going to a hell of a run.
Yo! says:
October 16, 2018 at 12:31 pm
“We are seeing the weakness spread widely. There’s a contagion, like a wildfire among the forward looking indicators that’s not going to be snuffed out. The nature of recession is not a statistic. It’s a vicious feedback loop. Sales fall, production falls, income falls and that depresses sales. We’re in that and it’s goong to run it’s course.”
Who? Lakshmi Achutan, the clown who wrote article saying housing is in cyclical downtown
When? 2011
Lakshmi seeing bad news implies several more years of good news. So plenty of years to run for US housing.
Eddie, when dnc was handing out campaign cash they told candidates to keep open borders and soci@lism under wraps. Not much left.
Missing journalist’s body was cut into pieces, Turkish official says
Is that halal?
… and a failure in everything he’s touched.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trumps-list-289-accomplishments-in-just-20-months-relentless-promise-keeping
Hillary unscathed after Scooby Doo crashes in Jersey City.
Scooby Doo crash in JC. Hillary survives unscathed.
Eddie,
You mean touting all the job and growth stats that were bogus (his words) when Obama was in office. I see nothing with all these “jobs” that leads me to believe wages are improving for white collar folks. I still have resume out there, still take calls but just much more blunt. If I have another 23 old kid recruiter call me to pad their pipeline stats while offering no jobs..
In fact, my friend (same age, line of work) contacted me this week about a PM job at MasterCard. He has been looking for a few months now but not much going. I tell I did phone interview with MC in July. Yep, same job, same group, same manager..told him they just started job search. They told me same thing in July. What a load of bs. I am not saying economy in not improved but it is lower workers. Experienced people in area..well I still think big NY companies are still hesitant to commit to strategies which includes higher salary positions locally.
Deficits are waaaaay up. Oh Cry Thee Republicans? Where is your fiscal acumen ?
Gone the Way of Sears. Don’t worry Kids it’ll be great! Just take one of those ‘Jobs’ I’m looking at shift mgr for a mobile ButtPlug mfr. The Stack isBack!!~ said no one. Buckle up.
Silly argument to pin on a political party or even a person. The system is built for x amount of spending y amount of taxes. I’d gladly welcome a trillion dollar cut in spending. It’s politically impossible and no one person has the ability to get it done legally.
The system of the US government is designed for tweaks, not major overhauls. It took over 100 years to tweak it up to the crazy point it’s at right now. My guess is, like a long term injury, the rehab takes longer than the time it took to build up to that injury.
Bystander,
Is this your line of work?
https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=2be18f29d1b08eee&tk=1cpv2s5rsa18i806&from=serp&vjs=3
Look through these:
https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=financial+project+manager+%24125%2C000&l=Manhattan%2C+NY&start=10
Even Carl Icahn thinks the tariffs are dumb. Watch and wait. It ends in tears.
Is that the first joke you posted in about 4 years?
grim says:
October 16, 2018 at 1:53 pm
Missing journalist’s body was cut into pieces, Turkish official says
Is that halal?
You guys need to be programming chatbots to do your interviews for you.
What works very well is to setup a robocall to all HR employees phone numbers you can find, just a short daily reminder.
Sweeney is giggling like a little girl….
–
New Jersey’s Democrat-controlled state Senate will launch its own investigation into the sexual assault scandal surrounding Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration, NJ Advance Media has learned.
Senate President Stephen Sweeney will announce Tuesday afternoon the upper house of the state Legislature is convening a special, bipartisan, six-member committee to examine how Murphy’s team handled allegations that a senior staffer raped a woman while working on the Democrat’s campaign last year.
No Eddie. Pure IB/sell side. Much harder to crack buy side and much more lucrative across board. On other search, firms can kiss my rear at 125k in NYC. It would cost me 7k a year in commuting cost alone on MTA and going up. Glad you think it good pay..take it if you want.
Beginning of the end. Nice to know you Phil. Glad you burned 20 mil of your own money to fall on your own sword. He was too extreme even for NJ.
I wouldn’t be so quick to make these assumptions. We are in a weird time for politics. As long as the guy plays for your team, no one cares about what they say or do. Trump started this, and now it’s spreading.
MAGA2020 says:
October 16, 2018 at 3:24 pm
Beginning of the end. Nice to know you Phil. Glad you burned 20 mil of your own money to fall on your own sword. He was too extreme even for NJ.
It’s already clearly established that a rape accusation was covered up. An attempt was made to buy her off. It’s Nearly established that Murphy was aware that it was covered up. That’s a neutron bomb once the dots are connected.
MAGA2020,
Where’s Alyssa Milano? We need her opinion. Maybe Dianne Feinstein can weigh in.
Ex
Called TSLA yesterday, behaving funky in a good way. Up 17 points (6.5%) from yesterday v. market at 2.2%……
Quick 38% gain for me overnight……..
You and Eddie can suck 1/2 my dick and still have plenty left over for your fat wives…floppy puzzzies
Yes, I thought Trump was finished many times before too. It’s team politics these days…attack the other side while ignoring the faults of our own.
MAGA2020 says:
October 16, 2018 at 3:37 pm
It’s already clearly established that a rape accusation was covered up. An attempt was made to buy her off. It’s Nearly established that Murphy was aware that it was covered up. That’s a neutron bomb once the dots are connected.
Damn, great call!
leftwing says:
October 16, 2018 at 3:48 pm
Ex
Called TSLA yesterday, behaving funky in a good way. Up 17 points (6.5%) from yesterday v. market at 2.2%……
Quick 38% gain for me overnight……..
Democrats are such predictable morons (or maroons, as drunk Essex would say). During Obama’s failures it was all “Bush’s fault”. Now during Trump’s accomplishments, it’s all because of Obama.
I guess we’re all in complete agreement that nothing good happened on Obama’s watch, we just differ on blame/credit.
NJ year to date house prices:
2018 +3.6%
2017 0.0%
2016 -2.4%
2015 0.0%
2014 +0.7%
Plenty of room to run.
Doesn’t the state average mislead a little bit, shouldn’t it be broken down by county?
Yo! says:
October 17, 2018 at 6:27 am
NJ year to date house prices:
2018 +3.6%
2017 0.0%
2016 -2.4%
2015 0.0%
2014 +0.7%
Plenty of room to run.
Real estate reporters are always correct. We should always listen to them. We have learned on this blog that what they’ve reported over the last 10 years has been super de duper reliably smart.
History of Budget Deficits/GDP
https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306
Deficits always matter, to the opposing party.
What’s more to say?
Exactly. Deficits don’t matter to the extent that the fear mongers make it out to be. In the end, does anyone think this will ever need to be paid down all at once?
Our country started out in extreme debt, and how did that work out?
grim says:
October 17, 2018 at 9:03 am
Deficits always matter, to the opposing party.
What’s more to say?
Pretty good argument about the value of America…..
https://youtu.be/jaMtoXgdlWU?t=179
Speaking of deficits and debt…question 1 on the ballot in NJ…
The “vote yes to borrow $500 million or you must hate the little children act”
Womp Womp…
Mueller’s work won’t be concluded ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/mueller-said-ready-to-deliver-key-findings-in-his-trump-probe?srnd=premium
Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was tortured and decapitated inside Riyadh’s consulate in Istanbul, a Turkish newspaper reported Wednesday, saying it had heard audio recordings of the brutal slaying.
Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist who vanished after visiting the consulate on Oct. 2 to pick up paperwork ahead of his wedding, had his fingers chopped off before he was beheaded, according to the pro-government Yeni Safak.
Saudi Consul Mohammed al-Otaibi can be heard on one tape saying during Khashoggi’s torture: “Do this outside. You are going to get me in trouble,” according to the paper, which did not reveal how it obtained the tapes.
In another tape, an unknown person tells Otaibi: “If you want to live when you come to Saudi Arabia, be quiet!”
Otaibi returned to Riyadh on Tuesday ahead of a planned search of his residence as part of the official Turkish probe into Khashoggi’s disappearance.
The Middle East Eye English-language website quoted a Turkish source saying that there was “no attempt to interrogate” Khashoggi, but that a Saudi hit team had “come to kill him,” AFP reported.
The source told the site that his death took seven minutes, with forensic physician Dr. Salah Muhammed Al-Tubaigy listening to music as he began to cut Khashoggi’s body while he was still alive.
Turkish authorities believe Khashoggi was killed by a special team of 15 Saudi officials, though Riyadh has dismissed such claims as “baseless.”
The gruesome report comes as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Wednesday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara after arriving from Riyadh, where he said the Saudis promised a thorough investigation.
The top US diplomat on Wednesday refused to blame Riyadh, saying he did not want “to talk about any of the facts” — a day after President Trump said the kingdom must be presumed to be innocent.
Several of the members of the alleged hit team were found to have close ties to Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, according to a photo analysis by the New York Times.
Turkish officials have shared an audio recording with the US and Saudi Arabia that they say proves Khashoggi was murdered by Saudi operatives — but the report by Yeni Safak is the first time a Turkish media outlet has claimed to have heard the damning tapes.
The pro-government paper Sabah has reported that Khashoggi’s Apple Watch recorded his interrogation, torture and killing, but some experts have said it was unlikely the watch could have recorded the events in that manner.
Before leaving Riyadh, Pompeo told reporters that the Saudi leaders “made no exceptions on who they would hold accountable.”
“They made a commitment to hold anyone connected to any wrongdoing that may be found accountable for that, whether they are a senior officer or official,” Pompeo said.
CNN has cited two sources as saying the Saudis are preparing a report that Khashoggi’s death was the result of a botched interrogation.
“The source told the site that his death took seven minutes, with forensic physician Dr. Salah Muhammed Al-Tubaigy listening to music as he began to cut Khashoggi’s body while he was still alive.”
animals….
How great is this?
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-45888176
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0aienuCBdg
Almost Half of U.S. Births Happen Outside Marriage, Signaling Cultural Shift
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/almost-half-of-u-s-births-happen-outside-marriage-signaling-cultural-shift
In the end, does anyone think this will ever need to be paid down all at once
Yes, once the interest alone costs more than the tax revenue, it will have to be defaulted on pretty quickly or monetized. My guess is that all the debt gets monetized at some point.
Do you know how much debt our country was in when it was founded? It was 77 million in the hole on an income of 4.4 million. It cost 4.2 million to run the government at this time. So how did we survive this?
Debt does not scare me. Sorry.
Come on, who is owed to anyway? It’s not the end of the world, and it will never be. Life goes on and finds a way.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
October 17, 2018 at 1:23 pm
In the end, does anyone think this will ever need to be paid down all at once
Yes, once the interest alone costs more than the tax revenue, it will have to be defaulted on pretty quickly or monetized. My guess is that all the debt gets monetized at some point.
Animals indeed. Just disgusting behavior.
chicagofinance says:
October 17, 2018 at 12:10 pm
“The source told the site that his death took seven minutes, with forensic physician Dr. Salah Muhammed Al-Tubaigy listening to music as he began to cut Khashoggi’s body while he was still alive.”
animals….
Turkey bugged the consulate while nobody was looking and have probably been recording the Saudi’s for years. The Apple Watch is a poor attempt at cover. The Saudi’s have probably already swept the consulate for bugs and destroyed them.
bad credit loans loan apply loan apply [url=https://creditloansguaranteedapproval.com/]credit loans guaranteed approval[/url]
Do you know how much debt our country was in when it was founded? It was 77 million in the hole on an income of 4.4 million. It cost 4.2 million to run the government at this time. So how did we survive this?
Debt does not scare me. Sorry.
Come on, who is owed to anyway? It’s not the end of the world, and it will never be. Life goes on and finds a way.
We survived it by some sort of default. It’s inevitable and the best option. I have a feeling the IMF and US will rig the game by converting all US foreign debt to some new currency to avoid massive inflation of the US dollar.
3 acre parcel in NJ resells for 4.6x 2002 price.
http://njparcels.com/sales/0905_106_1
Anybody else seeing comps like this in NJ?
credit loans guaranteed approval credit loans guaranteed approval short term loans online [url=https://creditloansguaranteedapproval.com/]quick cash loans no credit check[/url]
Proof that privatization is not the easy fix some think it is. It’s the same bs, whether public or private, anyone arguing otherwise, is acting on biased hate.
“Flying, meanwhile, has also become unbearable for passengers. The airlines that survived the volatile decade following 9/11 have since consolidated themselves into a lucrative oligopoly, prompting questions about why smaller cities continue to lose service, why seats keep getting smaller, why fares have remained stubbornly high even as fuel prices dropped and profits soared, and why paying passengers are being quasi-defenestrated from overbooked flights.”
“America has only three cities,” Tennessee Williams purportedly said. “New York, San Francisco, and New Orleans. Everywhere else is Cleveland.” That may have been true once. But New York’s evolution suggests that the future of cities is an experiment in mass commodification—the Clevelandification of urban America, where the city becomes the very uniform species that Williams abhorred. Paying seven figures to buy a place in Manhattan or San Francisco might have always been dubious. But what’s the point of paying New York prices to live in a neighborhood that’s just biding its time to become “everywhere else”?
https://apple.news/AaQTh2sY8QsOpDX0dKiCB1A
Yup
‘‘My world is cash and stocks. I think bonds are the bubble, not stocks.’’ Leon Cooperman, Omega Advisors