From CNBC:
Goodbye to bidding wars: Some of the hottest housing markets are falling the hardest
It was just last spring that home buyers in most of the nation were digging ever deeper into their pockets, bracing for a bidding war on whatever property they chose. And now, suddenly, they’re not. Home sales have slowed to a crawl nationally, and it’s not just the winter temperatures. The market’s pulse has become weaker, especially in areas that were hottest just last spring.
Just 32 percent of offers written by Redfin, a real estate brokerage, saw competing bids. That is down from 45 percent in November of last year.
In Seattle, where demand has outstripped supply for years, the drop is more abrupt. More than half of homes a year ago saw bidding wars, while less than a quarter are seeing them now.
Home values in Seattle were the hottest in the nation last spring, up 13 percent annually in April, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. That gain was down to 8 percent in September, the most recent reading. And supply in Seattle is up 60 percent compared to a year ago, according to Realtor.com.
In Los Angeles, 68 percent of properties for sale saw multiple offers a year ago. That is now down to 38 percent. In Southern California overall, home sales in October were at the slowest pace for that month in seven years, according to CoreLogic.
…
“Rising prices and mortgage rates have priced out some potential buyers while causing others to conclude that waiting to buy could pay off, especially as listings rise,” said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. “For the past three months, sales have fallen year over year in all six counties and, in the last two months, across most major price categories including above $1 million.”Mortgage rates rose sharply in September, and by October, the average rate on the 30-year fixed was more than a full percentage point higher than a year ago. With home prices already overheated in many major markets, higher rates broke the bank for most buyers.
…
Inventory jumped in formerly hot markets like San Jose (+123 percent), Seattle (+96.5 percent) and Oakland (+60 percent) but other markets are still seeing drops, like Philadelphia (-24 percent and New Orleans (-19 percent).
Markets are giving a nice Christmas gift this year. Cheaper stocks and housing. This is how long term money is made, on the purchase, not the sale.
Apple and amazon still having Black Friday pricing. Simply amazing.
Long term 401k’s loving this 4th qt market. Gobble up those cheapies!
Thanks to fracking, the U.S. has basically fcuked over every enemy we have (except China)…….. Obama and his lemmings would have pissed away the most compelling method to screw Russia and Iran, and stab the Saudis in the back as the media belches disdain for our ostensible pass on the Kashoggi thing….
WSJ Editorial….
How America Broke OPEC
Lessons from the U.S. rise to be the world’s largest oil producer.
Remember when America’s political class fretted about “peak oil” and dependence on foreign energy? So much for that. The U.S. the other week for the first time in 75 years became a net petroleum exporter as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wrangled over how to respond to America’s growing energy bounty.
U.S. crude production has surged 20% in a year and nearly tripled in a decade thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. American output is rising at the fastest rate in a century. Earlier this year the U.S. eclipsed Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.
For nearly six decades OPEC has dominated oil markets by setting production quotas among its 15 members. In late 2014, OPEC flooded the market with oil in an effort to break U.S. drillers who were burning cash on mounds of debt. As oil prices fell below $40 a barrel in 2015-2016, many wildcatters folded or were absorbed by larger producers.
But the survivors became more efficient. Technology—including drones with thermal imaging to detect leaks along with improvements in horizontal drilling—boosted productivity. Over the last five years production per rig has more than tripled in the Permian Basin and quadrupled in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale. While the Bakken rig count has fallen by 70%, output has increased by a third.
Most American oil refineries have processed heavier crudes, which depressed prices for lighter, sweeter grades produced in the new wells. But in late 2015 the GOP Congress expanded shale-oil’s market by lifting the export ban on crude in return for Barack Obama’s demand to extend renewable energy tax credits. U.S. crude exports have since soared to 3.2 million barrels a day.
Many U.S. producers say they can turn a profit at $50 a barrel and even as low as $30 in the Permian’s most productive regions. Yet most OPEC members need prices ranging between $70 and $90 per barrel to balance their budgets. The cartel scaled back output in 2016, but shale producers roared back as prices recovered. America’s shale gusher has presented a quandary for OPEC and especially its largest member, Saudi Arabia, which faces large budget deficits as it works to contain Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Earlier this year, the Saudis obliged President Trump by increasing output to prevent prices from soaring with the reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran. Even so oil prices hit a four-year high in early October. But they have since declined 30% amid weakening world economic forecasts, sanctions exemptions and surging U.S. production.
OPEC and Russia last week agreed to scale back production collectively by 1.2 million barrels a day, but the meeting exposed the cartel’s cracks. Qatar quit amid hostilities with the Saudis. Small producers carped they were too insignificant to affect global supply. Algeria produces one million barrels per day, which is as much as U.S. output has increased in five months.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and allied producers agreed to shoulder the bulk of the cuts while Libya, Iran and Venezuela received exemptions. Some in the media claim the Saudis defied Mr. Trump’s pleas to keep oil prices low, yet U.S. shale producers are likely to benefit from OPEC’s cuts by capturing more market share.
One of the biggest constraints on U.S. production has been a distribution bottleneck. Hence West Texas Intermediate now sells at a $8 to $9 discount to Brent crude on the world market. But next year three pipelines capable of delivering two million barrels of Permian crude to the Gulf Coast are expected to come online. In 2020 two more pipelines that can carry two million barrels a day are expected to be completed.
Oil companies are also racing to build more export terminals to handle the supply gusher, which isn’t likely to stop anytime soon. The U.S. Geological Survey reported recently that the Permian’s Delaware Basin holds more than twice as much oil and 18 times as much natural gas as the heavier-drilled Midland region.
***
Barack Obama, hilariously, is now claiming credit for the shale boom. “You know that whole suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer . . . that was me, people,” he said last month at Rice University. But drilling leases on federal land declined 28% during his two terms amid new restrictions on land use. Drilling skyrocketed on private land, despite attempts by his regulators to block pipelines, slow down approvals, and impose higher costs on production.
The Trump Administration is expediting pipeline and terminal permitting and opening new federal land to drilling. Last year’s tax reform unlocked Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The Interior Department recently scaled back needless Obama protections for the sage grouse, which will allow drilling on nine million acres in oil-rich states. Leases are being snapped up at auction, even in areas where recoveries are now low and expensive. As technology advances, many investors expect the break-even price of production to fall.
Politicians in the past have sought to secure American energy independence with price controls, ethanol mandates and the oil export ban. But they and OPEC should note that America owes its new energy prosperity to industry innovation, private property, and the free market.
OMG – what a bald face lie……. change you can believe in? Sickening!
Barack Obama, hilariously, is now claiming credit for the shale boom. “You know that whole suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer . . . that was me, people,” he said last month at Rice University.
This will suck the life ouy of amazon warehouses.
Opposable thumb boom to be replaced by suction cups.
100% automated warehouses coming.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/these-robots-help-amazon-s-competitors-narrow-the-delivery-gap?srnd=businessweek-v2
Wow, I wonder how that jives with his stance on climate change?
We are losing our millennial tenants (thank god). Called the realtor and she said there are A LOT of apartments available in Montclair. Wonder why that is? Pumps said real estate in train towns would be en fuego.
Grim,
whatz your take on this trend ??
Compared to same time in 2005 when you started this blog… What do you think is different this time around ??
stupid millennials
texting says:
December 15, 2018 at 8:51 pm
Grim,
whatz your take on this trend ??
Compared to same time in 2005 when you started this blog… What do you think is different this time around ??
My guess would be, the 8 cancelled trains I hear about everyday by 6 am.
Yep, like those Hoboken morons paying $250k more than 2015. Idiocy. Bet those two make 300k combined and think 1.2m is nothing as they are wealthy. They will get slapped to reality soon. It is pure speculation in Hoboken as they think it is so cheap compared to NYC. What happens when NY becomes comparable or even less than the ‘Boken. Coming soon.
chicagofinance says:
December 15, 2018 at 10:21 pm
stupid millennials
Hey Barry! You didn’t build that!
Barack Obama, hilariously, is now claiming credit for the shale boom. “You know that whole suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer . . . that was me, people,” he said last month at Rice University.
Great news!!
I would generally lend credit to the fossil fuels industry for accomplishing that. And…the reality was, the big catalyst was the oil price spike prior to the decade’s start. High prices tend to solve themselves over time.
May those prices keep falling!!
Just gassed up at $2.19
WSJ article on new reverse Jumbo mortgages HELO, Fannie Mae approved no monthly payment due till they haul your carcass out on a gurney.
Are retired Boomers lining up? Up to 4 million dollar loans with no payments. What could possibly go wrong.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senior-homeowners-give-reverse-jumbo-mortgages-new-life-11544632274?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
deduction reductions are already in effect for NJ and the rest of the country is in bubbleland. Check out CA TX prices.
what is the typical commission for realtors these days? Do they still ask 3+3
or 3+1 for dual representation?
KW3It0 pris issue a ce, lettre sans meme monde me
Mine still wanted 3+3. Probably why we didn’t sell the place. We tried to negotiate down, but she wouldn’t have it. Her loss. Knew we wouldn’t get HER number. I was correct again.