From the NYT:
The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?
We are, once again, experiencing one of the greatest housing booms in United States history.
How long this will last and where it is heading next are impossible to know now.
But it is time to take notice: My data shows that this is the United States’ third biggest housing boom in the modern era.
Since February 2012, when the price declines associated with the last financial crisis ended, prices for existing homes in the United States have been rising steadily and enormously. According to the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (which I helped to create) as of September, the prices were 53 percent higher than they were at the bottom of the market in 2012.
That means, on average, a house that sold for, say, $200,000 in 2012 would bring over $300,000 in September.
Even after factoring in Consumer Price Index inflation, real existing home prices were up almost 40 percent during that period. That is a substantial increase in less than seven years.
In fact, based on my data, it amounts to the third strongest national boom in real terms since the Consumer Price Index began in 1913, behind only the explosive run-up in prices that led to the great financial crisis of a decade ago, and one connected with World War II and the great postwar Baby Boom.
…
It can’t go on forever, of course. But when it will end isn’t knowable. The data can’t tell us when prices will level off, or whether they will plunge catastrophically. All we do know is that prices have been roaring higher at a speed rarely seen in American history.
Pumps it shows parts of nj closest to nyc and urban are doing quite well as in real estate prices whether that continues or not is another question of course! It says nothing of course about the dul barren hinterland of Wayne.
Either way, conspicuous consumption is alive and well in my neighborhood.
One guy drops his two kids off in a Bentley, and another dad drops his kid off in a yellow Lamborghini. There are at least 3 Maseratis, not that they would get any respect at all, who the hell buys a Maserati.
The best thing you’ll read on your commute this morning.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code?srnd=premium
Grim, thanks for gambling article. Made my commute. Contrast Hong Kong using horse racing to earn piles of money for charity with the New Jersey Senate voting 40-0 this week to add $100 million in taxpayer subsidies to the state’s horse racing industry.
Are those fancy cars in your neighborhood financed with home equity loans?
Same as any place near a check cashing place and a 7-Eleven, no?
Either way, conspicuous consumption is alive and well in my neighborhood.
That article was great. Thanks grim!
The best thing you’ll read on your commute this morning.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code?srnd=premium
Thanks Stu Blu and By for the laptop suggestions. Much appreciated. Will take a look at Best Buy tomorrow just to see. May wait until after Christmas 🎄 as Stu suggests
Most of north jersey real estate is safe as they come. The prices have not run up like the rest of the country. Pockets of north jersey have seen large price gains, but the majority has been slow and steady with their prices. Put it this way, current prices in Wayne have been supported since 2012, if it was supported back then, why won’t it be supported now with much larger paychecks for the market participants.
The rest of the country saw massive influx in population to their areas. These are the places where it can bust. Most of these areas are now on par with jersey prices or more expensive. So if there is a housing bust, it’s not coming to nj or the northeast in general. South, midwest, and west……good luck if we are indeed heading for a housing bust.
“Pumps it shows parts of nj closest to nyc and urban are doing quite well as in real estate prices whether that continues or not is another question of course! It says nothing of course about the dul barren hinterland of Wayne.”
Pumps – Tell us, please…
Fed does what?
Hahahahahhahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahhahahahaha!!!!
(Pumps googles fed)
I have to admit, Pumps does make some good calls. I subscribed to his personal call service and he taught me this valuable lesson:
Pasta – Always choose Wagon Wheels. Holds more sauce and stays on your fork better.
^^^ I later found out that Nana only served Wagon Wheels, so I’m not sure who should get the credit.
A Ghibl is about 70k. Reasonable car compared to many Mercedes.
What’s a Ghibl? Sounds like something a Hoya fan would own;-)
Seriously, consumer grade Maserati? My guess is Hyundai Genesis owners love snickering when some cars don’t start after arts fund raisers.
Expat – Lease is about $800 a month. I expect to see one in Pumpkin’s driveway soon.
Highway house, highway car. Makes sense.
Expat – Lease is about $800 a month. I expect to see one in Pumpkin’s driveway soon.
3 year old Ghilbl with 28k miles (with 3 previous owners probably leases) for 33k
No Accident or Damage Reported
1st owner purchased on 12/29/14 and owned in FL until 01/28/16 • 2nd owner purchased on 03/30/16 and owned in FL until 12/18/17 • 3rd owner purchased on 03/08/18 and owned in FL until Present.
https://www.carfax.com/Used-Maserati-Ghibli_w755
Uma Thurman was pretty hot in Ghilbl 2
Bill : Pai Mei taught you the five point palm-exploding heart technique?
The Bride : Of course he did.
Bill : Why didn’t you tell me?
The Bride : I don’t know… because I’m a bad person.
Bill : No. You’re not a bad person. You’re a terrific person. You’re my favorite person, but every once in a while, you can be a real cunt.
Motor Trend just named the Genesis G70, talking about how it competes with BMW. Do they really think that BMW buyers are going to cross-shop in the Hyundai dealership? Do you guys think that will happen?
Reminds me of 5 or 6 years ago when the same magazines said that the Cadillac sedans of the time outperformed BMWs. Basically because those Cadillacs were just Camaros with a different look and fancier trimmings. But people buy these kinds of cars for the image they project, not track times.
Is Pumps going to go trade his BMW for a Genesis because it’s Car of The Year?
As for a Maserati – I’d only buy one if either family or my closest friend owned a dealership and/or a repair shop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NL7nLSSSWjw
Sat in a new Genesis a few weeks ago, it’s a beautiful car.
I don’t believe there are any Hyundai markings at all.
No different from Acura, Lexus and Infiniti.
Their biggest misstep wasn’t launching as a completely separate brand from the consumer perspective.
Q. What’s the difference between a porcupine and a BMW owner (more correctly, driver/occupier)?
A. Porcupines have the pricks on the outside.
Believe it or not, the next rung up is those who never drive a BMW.
OTOH, you can be friends with Pumps, Essex, and their wives who tell them what to buy.
I love the way the Genesis cars look. I want one. I’m driving an 11 year old car so I’m tempted to just go and buy a Genesis.
I concur. They are trying to correct that misstep now. I saw a Genesis for the first time, parked, maybe 6 or 7 years ago. I thought it was a Merc. When I saw it was a Hyundai I immediately thought, “I would definitely pay $30K for that!” I was a little crestfallen when I got home, searched the internet, and found out that it was already $50K.
Their biggest misstep wasn’t launching as a completely separate brand from the consumer perspective.
BTW, I’m already living the dream…in the most diminutive, partial, and unenthusing way ever. Our Kia Sedona sports a Hyundai Genesis 3.8L V6. Nonetheless, I paid $5,600 cash for it with 40K one owner miles by a Jesuit ministry. I challenge any other used minivan owner to find an example with no microscopic trace of child puke or whole Cheerios somewhere back of the first row;-)
Ghilbl- Ferrari sourced engine put together by Chrysler, tempting at $30,000 just for the engine.
oxymoron?
engine put together by Chrysler, tempting at $30,000 just for the engine
ox·y·mo·ron
/ˌäksəˈmôrˌän/
noun
a figure of speech in which apparently contradictory terms appear in conjunction (e.g., faith unfaithful kept him falsely true ).
They were going to have separate dealerships for Genesis but things got screwed up. The only time you are in the dealer for a G70 is when you buy. They send valet out to pick up your car for oil change, etc as they don’t want this type of customer in their dealership cause it will ruin the brand experience for them.
Honda 1.5L turbo engine having lots of issues. It’s in the CRV, Accord and Civic.
https://forum.leasehackr.com
“One guy drops his two kids off in a Bentley, and another dad drops his kid off in a yellow Lamborghini.”
This state is a joke, lol. What kind of idiot does drop off in a Lambo?
Insecure 30 something bond salesman who hasn’t yet learned to bank the bonus rather than blow it. I’ve been around enough cycles. These jackasses come and go.
I don’t think Ferrari designs their engines for durability, however.
Lamborghini Urus SUV will be the most “practical” car they offer. It’s priced at over $200k and is basically an Audi Q5 with a massively overpowered engine guaranteed to spill your kids’ cheerios and sippy cups while giving them a harsh ride with high g-forces.
This picture at the top of this article pretty much describes what the Lambo Urus does:
https://www.vulture.com/2018/12/south-park-recap-season-22-episode-10.html
LOL. Ironcially, my FIL bought a Jaguar 2+2 XKE with a bonus check in 1969, cash, but I largely agree.
My FIL was the president of a Fed Funds brokerage firm 10 years later and retired at age 42 a couple years after that. In his later years he used to talk about buying a Bentley (the twin turbo W-12 VW models) but he continued to own inauspicious Nissans instead.
I perused both the Stinger and G70 at the NYC Auto Show in April. Liked both and both on shopping list if reliability holds. My 2006 TL though keeps going and still seems to be as good as many of these newer vehicles. I particularly dislike “auto start/stop”. But I do like the newer safety features, especially adaptive cruise control which I have on the Forester and is great for the trips to NC to drop/pickup daughter from College.
FIL has a AWD Ghibli and MIL has a Genesis. I’ve driven both. I’ll take the Ghibli any day of the week.
Here’s an awesome video showing what it’s like to drive a Lambo:
http://southpark.cc.com/clips/ulltdw/weed-delivery
Heh-heh!
This picture at the top of this article pretty much describes what the Lambo Urus does:
https://www.vulture.com/2018/12/south-park-recap-season-22-episode-10.html
I’d take my 1970 Fiat Spider (DOHC, 4 wheel disc brakes, 5 speed transmission) over a 1970 Nova any day of the week…that both started and ran… and I didn’t have to pay for repairs and maintenance.
FIL has a AWD Ghibli and MIL has a Genesis. I’ve driven both. I’ll take the Ghibli any day of the week.
Oh yeah, if someone is covering cost of car and, of course, maintenance, I have a whole different list!
Pumps and yet Bergen co is doing a slow bleed. If you bought in the last 10 years you have made little to nothing. Bergen co is doing a slow bleed.
My 19 year old Lexus Rx300 is on its last legs. Time to replace her as main car but I will keep her until she dies completely. Just under 200k miles! Great car/suv.
Hmmmm….
Yesterday I bought some 1 year CDs, 2.75%. Yesterday they were readily available. Still available today, but much less in supply.
^^^^FYI, I’m talking brokered CDs, the kind you can buy in Ameritrade, Schwab accounts, etc. (IRA and taxable).
Not a problem in much more desirable Sussex, Passaic, and Morris counties.
(hahahahahahahhahahahahahah!)
Bergen co is doing a slow bleed.
3b,
You saw the map yesterday. How do you come to the conclusions that this area can’t support current pricing?
Pumps – So…about the Fed? Let us know, since you’re such an economic scholar with (GED) degrees so secret….
Good news, Pumps!!! Unless you bought really, really, badly…you now own a $1 million dollar house!
🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃
“what moron left ice cream on the stove?”
🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃
That means, on average, a house that sold for, say, $200,000 in 2012 would bring over $300,000 in September.
Where have I heard this joke before
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 19, 2018 at 10:13 am
Q. What’s the difference between a porcupine and a BMW owner (more correctly, driver/occupier)?
Poor Pumps. He’s eventually going to have to turn to the family bidness…crime.
He tried to pretend, but he’s just not intelligent enough for anything else.
In your undies?
Where have I heard this joke before
photo of joyce:
(((( ))))
There’s some guy in a Lamborghini in the Mercer County area. He tried doing the exit ramp onto 295 (2 lanes) at what looked like 85 or 90 in my rear view mirror. I made him test out the braking system.
BRT – did you block both lanes? That’s a little passive-aggressive, don’t you think?
Then again…dividend stocks not working out so well, have to take it out on someone, amirite?
Italian cars are great cars for driving better than the Germans or the Brits, Sergio Marchionne was a car guy. Unfortunately like many Italian products they are incredibly unreliable, expensive to fix and maintain. Your daily driver should not be an Italian luxury car…..
As for the genesis, it’s a good car. We have one and it’s basically a copy of a German car but the Koreans have better initial build quality and have made the cars more reliable. The Lexus comparison is a good one, demand is apparently high for the car. I actually like my wife’s genesis more than my mom’s e-class.
Been working on comps for a property in a top location in Franklin Lakes this morning. Several of the recent sales in the development also changed hands in the early 2000″s. Stunning to see homes down by 20% from a 2003 sale price. Listing indicates house was renovated in 2010.
Pumpkin, how do you think those folks have felt about the slow and steady growth of North Jersey real estate since the recession?
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 19, 2018 at 9:20 am
Most of north jersey real estate is safe as they come. The prices have not run up like the rest of the country. Pockets of north jersey have seen large price gains, but the majority has been slow and steady with their prices. Put it this way, current prices in Wayne have been supported since 2012, if it was supported back then, why won’t it be supported now with much larger paychecks for the market participants.
BRT
Hedge fund guy or football player?
Driving a supercar on NJ’s potholed roads wouldn’t be very fun, in my opinion.
Better have one of those $5000 gold police shield things mounted visibly too, if they actually work.
In 2003, how much more expensive was north jersey in comparison to the rest of the country? Was it realistic for these prices to keep blowing past the rest of the country? No, it would kill our market.
In 2003, bubble was already hitting this area hard. So if a home was 1.5 million in 2003, do we really expect it to be 2.5 or 3 million now? There is absolutely not enough buyers to support that price point.
Other areas of the country experienced massive gains because they were significantly cheaper than real estate in the northeast. So spill over occurred across the country from the northeast. All they did was drive up the price everywhere else. Now our prices are stable, and for their markets, who the hell knows…..depends on how many people keep moving in these locations, and how many good jobs are created to figure out when their price will level off or bust.
30 year realtor says:
December 19, 2018 at 1:24 pm
Been working on comps for a property in a top location in Franklin Lakes this morning. Several of the recent sales in the development also changed hands in the early 2000″s. Stunning to see homes down by 20% from a 2003 sale price. Listing indicates house was renovated in 2010.
Pumpkin, how do you think those folks have felt about the slow and steady growth of North Jersey real estate since the recession?
did you block both lanes? That’s a little passive-aggressive, don’t you think?
I was alone approaching the merge in 50 ft. He was going to try to pass me at the last second from about 200 ft back. Passive aggressive is my middle name. I shouldn’t have to worry about some idiot coming up on me at 90 mph on an exit ramp. I literally don’t care if my car gets hit. It is the ultimate equalizer on the road. This was years ago.
But actually, now that you mention the stocks, I haven’t looked at the price in a week. I’m content to collect some checks over the next 2 years. I rarely sell stock. I’ve held plenty of things for over 10 years. I stopped worrying about price swings years ago. I’m not going to worry about a $100 daily swing in value when I can make $500 tutoring after school each day.
LOL. Pumps doesn’t understand anything when it comes to the Fed.
*how many people keep moving to these locations
Pumps knows prison and Nana.
Even the fed doesn’t know what to do….. if they raise this time, might be a while before they raise again.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 19, 2018 at 2:03 pm
LOL. Pumps doesn’t understand anything when it comes to the Fed.
Gotta be a hedge funder or a Princeton Trust fund baby. I’ve seen him drive like an a$$ in the 25 mph main road of Princeton as well. Police shields don’t work. But the Family Member gold card does. I have one from a patient that my father treated years ago.
If the police see that card, they don’t even run my license. I apologize to them and they tell me to have a nice day. I haven’t been ticketed in about 13 years now. Racked up plenty in my youth though. These days, I don’t drive fast at all. I’m the guy doing 70 in the right lane on 78 while everyone is flying by at 80.
Pumps = Moron
Nice prediction, numb nuts.
I just read the headlines….didn’t have time. My prediction was basically what they did.
Uhh.. I think your prediction is that you have no intellectual capacity to make a prediction….despite your “cycles” and “demographics”.
Your Dad is a criminal and you are a doof.
….didn’t have time. My prediction was basically what they did.
Expat = needs new material
joyce = needs new cunt
30,
Piggy backing off my earlier comment to you.
You notice that north jersey price points at 500,000 or below are all pretty much above 2006 pricing for northern nj. Places like Franklin Lakes where the avg home was 2 million back in the bubble is a different animal. I suppose the gold coast is stealing some of the mojo of this area. How many people can afford million plus homes? So to expect growth in these areas right now is asking a lot. There are a lot of million plus homes out there in north jersey in comparison to other inventory. Below 500k there is almost nothing.
The buyers will eventually come, but not till the early 2020’s. The millennials have to hit their 40’s before they can hit that price point. They will be close to their peak spending years and getting help from their rich boomer parents as the boomer’s sell off their homes to downsize for retirement. They will help their kids buy similar homes with the proceeds.
Well that’s my two cents. Might be drivel to you, but would like to hear how you feel.
I think Murphy’s political career is toast. He’s either associated or guilty of running a ship with no direction at all.
The difference between a joke and three telephone poles?
joyce can’t take a joke.
When is the criminal trial for this rape case? Seems like we found him guilty before a trial. Seems like it’s a plan to try to take down Murphy who has nothing to do with it. Should a ceo be fired if someone on his team commits a crime? Is there any evidence that Murphy himself covered up anything?
Benjamin Lee says:
December 19, 2018 at 2:34 pm
I think Murphy’s political career is toast. He’s either associated or guilty of running a ship with no direction at all.
Pumpkin, I do not attempt to predict the future. Your statement about 500,000 and below properties is incorrect and likely pulled directly from your a*s. I do research of the present and recent past to predict sales 12 months out or less. My near term prediction for North Jersey is depreciation of 2 to 5% in the next 12 to 18 months.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=0220&l02=022002101__0400013_________M
Franklin Lakes house traded 28% below 2000 sale price. Maybe a teardown. Interior didn’t look horrible but sits on 1.2 acre as of land.
Buyer of that property is a real estate agent.
30,
Link won’t work, so gave the title of the article.
“Contract activity for homes under $400,000 have declined due to a supply shortage – one the market hasn’t seen since 2005, Otteau found.”
N.J.’s housing market hits slump, CRE sector soars, The Otteau Group report suggests
By Emily Bader
New Jersey | Nov 2, 2018 at 11:42 am
Franklin lakes talk…
Didn’t Franklin Lakes have some of the highest home appreciation gains in the state from 1990-2007? They also built huge homes in Franklin Lakes. How many buyers can afford that or want that?
So why are we using the “jersey city of today” to claim the market is shot. Do you expect jersey city to be the leader in home appreciation in nj the next decade? You have to be insane to expect that. Spillover will occur. It’s human nature. Franklin Lakes had it’s huge run up, how much more could it run? Unless you are getting a ton of new people looking for 8,000 sq ft monsters, that market will not see growth in time being.
At the end of the day, you don’t buy a home in the million plus market expecting huge future growth in price when the majority of the population can’t afford to push up the price. Million plus homes can only go up so much in price. Such a limited buyer pool.
He has a point.
No One says:
December 19, 2018 at 10:08 am
Motor Trend just named the Genesis G70, talking about how it competes with BMW. Do they really think that BMW buyers are going to cross-shop in the Hyundai dealership? Do you guys think that will happen?
Reminds me of 5 or 6 years ago when the same magazines said that the Cadillac sedans of the time outperformed BMWs. Basically because those Cadillacs were just Camaros with a different look and fancier trimmings. But people buy these kinds of cars for the image they project, not track times.
Is Pumps going to go trade his BMW for a Genesis because it’s Car of The Year?
It’s still stunning to me the arrogance of pumps! He tells a man that does real estate for a living for over 30 years, and is in the market every day that he is wrong. Then of course he will say that 30 years analysis and experience is merely an opinion!! Absolutely stunning!!
When did I ever say he is wrong? I am merely giving my analysis.
Pumps your analysis vs the analysis of a professional!! ?? Are you freaking kidding me!!??
Last 3 resales in a Jersey City building built in 2007:
2007 price
2018 price
Change
$430,381
$725,000
68%
$406,088
$718,000
77%
$587,821
$1,072,500
82%
Hi gang!
I must say the subject article surprises me. What bubble? I thought that high cost, high-tax blue areas like NY/NJ metro suburbs were under pressure due to the Trump Tax cut limiting SALT deductions. Things are still trading in my town, this being a high-turnover neighborhood favored by drug company executives, particularly those from abroad putting a stint in at the home office before taking the relo package abroad.
Nobody got any clue on housing.. Except grim. who got it right in 2005..
South Bergen towns are trending high every month. No let up in prices going up..
Stock market in correction.. Spring market will be interesting..
I saw a political ad for Murphy on TV last night. Seems pretty early to be running for re-election. I wonder what kind of sleazy organization is this “New Direction New Jersey”
Here you go for those of you who missed it:
https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/murphy-non-profit-airs-new-tv-ad/
“By law, New Direction NJ is not required to publicly disclose its donors,” said Jonathan Berkon, a partner in Perkins Coie’s political law group and counsel to New Direction New Jersey. “Nonetheless, as promised, New Direction NJ will voluntarily release a list of its donors at the end of the year.”
RE: Franklin Lakes house above – The recent trade at the low levels are pretty interesting but NOT as interesting as the owners listing the property for $1.375mm for six months in ’11-’12. A listing price 3X higher than the trade…that is some steep ride down.
10:13 wife & I have been together since 93. Whatever works amirite?
Grab em by the puüssy.
Here’s a song : https://youtu.be/ljdL7axzCnk
SwoFG6 I will be sure to bookmark your blog and will come back in the future.
When is the criminal trial for this rape case?
Likely swept under the rug by someone with a position of power.
Pumps grabs his Nana by the pussy for RE gain. Dad is a criminal, taught him.
Pumps grabs his Nana by the puzzy for RE gain. Dad is a criminal, taught him how to do it.
Dedicated to expat
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HZ2j-TiJEvQ
Zillow market temps… Fairfield is now very hot(how long have I been screaming this value?). Totowa hot…Clifton very hot.
Did I not call this? Spillover. Wayne is next on that line. It’s the rt 3 values spreading west to now the rt 46 corridor…then to rt 23 in Wayne.(maybe 2019? Prob more like 2020).
Hello, Could you be interested in making $ 200,000 a day with us?
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ExPat, any commentary on VIX VXX and key levels
Nobody got any clue on housing.. Except grim. who got it right in 2005..
I was 6m-1y early on both sides of the bubble, peak and trough.