From the Washington Post:
In yet another sign of a slowdown in the national housing market, the number of homes that were flipped — sold within one year of purchase — declined by 12 percent during the third quarter of 2018, compared with the third quarter of 2017, according to a new report by ATTOM Data Solutions, an Irvine, Calif.-based property database. The U.S. Home Flipping Report shows that 45,901 single-family homes and condos that sold during the third quarter were flips, which is the lowest level since the first quarter of 2015.
The number of sales that were considered flips during the quarter represent 5 percent of all sales, down slightly from 5.1 percent during the third quarter of 2017.
ATTOM’s quarterly reports have now recorded three consecutive quarters with a decline in flips, which hasn’t happened since 2014, according to Daren Blomquist, ATTOM’s senior vice president, which followed a jump in mortgage rates during the second half of 2013. In the years leading up to the housing crash, 11 consecutive quarters (from the second quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2008) had declines in flipping activity.
The combination of high home prices, low inventory and higher mortgage rates are contributors to the slowdown in home flipping. In addition, the average returns on home flipping dropped to a 6.5-year low during the third quarter of 2018, at an average of 42.6 percent, down from 48.1 percent during the third quarter of 2017.
Don’t bother with porches, dining rooms, formal living rooms, etc etc…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-american-dream-of-owning-a-big-home-is-way-overrated-in-one-chart-2018-05-21
Love the cluster around the toilet.
Re: unused space – went to a holiday get together at a friend’s house. They bought this house over a year ago, just as the youngest started his senior year in high school, because wifey wanted a dining room, fireplace, master bedroom suite, etc. Now both kids are away at college, my buddy is off traveling for work all the time to pay for all of this, and she gets to sit in her gawjus home all by herself. smh.
BTFDSTFRMy wife and daughters left before 8AM today to go where wives and daughters go today.
BTW, I’m looking for about an 8 session net rally in the S&P 500, but I might be out again right as Pelosi picks up the gavel.
BTW, 12/26 trading finishes with a net gain 82% of the time, the highest of any other calendar trading day average.
I have to agree with this for most areas.
“My wife and I have 4 kids, so our family regularly uses much of our 5,500 sq ft home. Over the next 5 years, the kids are going to head off to college, so my wife and I are contemplating moving to a smaller home. But here in metro Atlanta, I’ve noticed this–with a bigger home, you get a LOT more for your money. (I noticed the same thing in the DFW area.) Our house in on a full basement with a large lot and is four sides brick in a nice swim-tennis community. I’ve started to look at smaller houses which are maybe 20% cheaper. But these cheaper houses are usually not on a basement, the lots are smaller, the interior looks cheap, they are not as well insulated (so there’s little energy benefit), and they have siding on at least one side of the house (usually on 3 sides). Plus, the neighborhoods are not as nice. We’ve looked at smaller houses in nice neighborhoods, but they’re almost the same price as our much bigger house. We will probably end up staying in our home even after the kids move out, or we’ll buy a house about the same size.”
It’s not easy to find a nice small home in a good area for a price that is a “value.”
Still flipping. Tougher to buy at sheriff sales during recent months.
After the resignation of the Bergen County Sheriff a few months back sales were suspended for 2 months. Sales started again on 12/7 and it appears that bidders have money that is burning a hole in their pockets. Percentage to market value being paid at the sale has been exceptionally high. Guess these folks didn’t get the message about return on flips being down. I would expect that return percentage to continue to decrease in the year ahead.
There were 3 successful flips in my neighborhood last year. 2 remain. One of them tried buying/flipping immediately just by cleaning out the place. Didn’t work. So they went new windows, rugs, cabinets, lights and tried to lipstick the landscaping.
Thanks for the “feet on the ground” update, 30y!
Busy streets are always an option, just make sure not top overpay.
Hahahahahahahahahaahahahhahahahahahhaha!
It’s not easy to find a nice small home in a good area for a price that is a “value.”
I have given up on Sussex County flips. Between low property values, declining market and septic systems, it is just too difficult to make adequate profits.
Forgot to mention underground oil tanks!
1:30PM – If you ever want to open a long position, try looking at this time to get a good price. It won’t always be the cheapest, but you’ll find that you aren’t disappointed as often as if you bought in the first hour of trading.
Our lizard brain wants to catch a falling knife and buy an apparent uptrend at 9:36AM. Try resisting your lizard brain.
As I’ve mentioned previously, try doing more research and waiting 5 days; that often works better still.
going to have to spend extra time communicating with my book this week…… I’m trying to save the crunch for 2 weeks from now. So many people completely don’t pay attention and I want to soften the blow of S&P down 20% 4Q18, and down 15% in 12/2018….. I wanted to communicate on Monday, but it was inappropriate to do so…..
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 26, 2018 at 9:12 am
BTW, I’m looking for about an 8 session net rally in the S&P 500, but I might be out again right as Pelosi picks up the gavel.
BTW, 12/26 trading finishes with a net gain 82% of the time, the highest of any other calendar trading day average.
I have 6 properties going on the market on 1/2/19. Properties are located in Bergen, Morris, Hunterdon and Somerset Counties. This should provide a lot of information for me on the state of the market.
November NJ home price stats are out.
House price change year to date through November:
State +4.1%
Hudson +12.3%
Salem -12.8%
Leading indicators (days on markets, months of inventory, % of list price received) moving slowly in positive direction.
Another thing – remember that everyone you see on TV and most people in the industry, in general…want you to go and stay long. Did you ever see anyone on CNBC telling you it’s the right time to go 100% cash and stay there for 3 months? Of course not. What would the commercial sponsors do if they allowed that to happen?
Watch this and then ask yourself why it has 6.5 million views. My belief is that the industry guys watch it over, and over, and over (and then laugh their collective asses off).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM6exo00T5I
chi – LOL. I’ve been thinking about year end client statements going out for 2 weeks now…and laughing. Just another reason why you may see a rally right away…get one group of 401K sheep in in front of the managed portfolio sheep going out…and then second guessing themselves. That’s the reason I use hard, disciplined, managed stops. They keep giving me back capital without asking me how I “feel” about it.
going to have to spend extra time communicating with my book this week…… I’m trying to save the crunch for 2 weeks from now. So many people completely don’t pay attention and I want to soften the blow of S&P down 20% 4Q18, and down 15% in 12/2018….. I wanted to communicate on Monday, but it was inappropriate to do so…..
^^^Stopped out of AJG today. It’s been a nice winner, and a long term one at that. Beleive it or not, I still have to do some tax selling this week. My stops this year have closed me out of so many long term winning positions that I am in a tax quandary. I’m still down on the year, which makes the gains even more
bittersweetof a pain in the ass that pisses me off.ICE just sold too, another long term winner. For a while I had the only good financial sector stocks left.
chi – I’ve been resisting, including Monday. T at 7.5% yield?
I completely missed this one. I went out about 6 months ago with half my growth crap but went back in about three months later as it appeared the bull still had a leg. Haven’t made a single move on the way down, keeping my remaining powder dry until we find the bottom. Wish I didn’t play chicken going back in. Still, this is the weirdest correction ever. Economy is still hot, the ten year is struggling to follow the FED and the tariffs should remain a net positive. Still expecting a bit of a bounce back, but the old top might take a while to be seen again IMO.
You can build the case to go long almost anything under these conditions Just remember that any of the Telcos dividends are a vestige of the days when we had monopoly telephone service coast to coast. So this feature is fundamentally divorced from the financial profile of the business. I am not suggesting that these companies are not inVestible . It’s just that I am uncomfortable with the idea that the dividend is a strong thesis to buy these things
Headstones on order for soon to be ex-Dividend Aristocrats like T?
I’m going to go out on a limb. Anybody who goes out in public with predictions (except for Pumpkin) knows that you don’t give both a number and a timeframe. Leave one out and you have more chances to be right, right?
Just to show I’m as
stupidPolish as Pumps:1. S&P 500 back to ~2570 or so by 1/3
2. S&P 500 back down to about 2350 by 1/10
“Since the mid-1980s there has been an enormous transfer of wealth from the working class to the wealthiest people in this country. That is the Robin Hood principle in reverse. That is unacceptable and that has got to change.”
https://theintercept.com/2018/10/20/public-pensions-crisis-wall-street-fees/
“Thousands of Kentucky public school teachers swarmed the state Capitol earlier this year, angry not about low salaries, but about their shrinking pensions. Among their concerns: the high portion of their money that has ended up in the hands of Wall Street in opaque, high-cost products that seem to benefit no one aside from the people who sold them. Rising pension costs helped to send teachers in Colorado into the streets in protest a few weeks later. In the last year, pension woes have also prompted teachers in Ohio and Oklahoma to march. And police, firefighters, and other public employees in Michigan have been staging protests since at least 2016 to preserve their public pensions, more than one-third of which is invested in “alternatives”: private equity, hedge funds, commodities, distressed debt, and other opaque Wall Street investment vehicles.”
‘Sup volatility
Pumper @ 1:21pm:
“The Muppets Take The Statehouse”
As I was saying……
Chicago says:
December 26, 2018 at 11:33 am
You can build the case to go long almost anything under these conditions
Fcking shwiiing
Bear market in highway houses….begins NOW!
Not in commuter towns Expat.. Depends if pump still considers Wayne as a Commuter town..
Whew. Sheeeeeeet no one likes these swings cept certain folks who’ll risk it all. Just glad to be collecting a paycheck. And not freeezing my ass off is a bonus. Turns out a woody Allen was a sexy bastard after all.
Buy all the stock you can!
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Y’all, we spent a lot of money this season
https://www.usatoday.com/story/nletter/short-list/2018/12/26/its-best-holiday-season-retailers-last-6-years/2416494002/
NHMD trading at 0.0016 today. For $1.60 you can buy 1000 shares.