From the Census ACS Community Survey released a few weeks ago.
Town – Median Household Income:
Millburn, Essex County $202,862
Essex Fells, Essex County $200,875
Glen Ridge, Essex County $196,821
North Caldwell, Essex County $187,470
Mendham Township, Morris County $185,882
Harding Township, Morris County $183,587
Montgomery Township, Somerset County $180,660
Upper Saddle River, Bergen County $176,674
Ho-Ho-Kus, Bergen County $176,518
Chatham Township, Morris County $176,364
West Windsor Township, Mercer County $175,684
Mountain Lakes, Morris County $175,556
Saddle River, Bergen County $173,333
Haworth, Bergen County $170,417
Colts Neck Township, Monmouth County $167,480
Chatham, Morris County $163,026
Glen Rock, Bergen County $162,443
Ridgewood Village, Bergen County $162,011
Tewksbury Township, Hunterdon County $161,477
Woodcliff Lake, Bergen County $161,250
Westfield, Union County $159,923
Rockleigh, Bergen County $158,594
Fair Haven, Monmouth County $158,264
Rumson, Monmouth County $158,229
Millstone Township, Monmouth County $156,891
Holmdel Township, Monmouth County $155,842
Franklin Lakes, Bergen County $155,458
Warren Township, Somerset County $154,647
Tenafly, Bergen County $153,906
Livingston Township, Essex County $153,381
Chester Township, Morris County $153,056
Allendale, Bergen County $151,875
Bernardsville, Somerset County $150,635
Like I said yesterday.
NJ is growing from a population standpoint.
The number of wealthy are increasing dramatically.
The middle class are leaving.
The poor haven’t gotten the message to leave yet.
Income 2010 2017 Net
Sub 10k 174342 172726 -1616
$10-15k 130977 103134 -27843
$15-25k 270609 228875 -41734
$25-35k 256073 225465 -30608
$35-50k 353152 309181 -43971
$50-75k 541530 481249 -60281
$75-100k 414452 400052 -14400
$100-150k 526854 568645 41791
$150-200k 246604 310082 63478
$200k 257828 419389 161561
Total 3172421 3218798 46377
This is the ACS single year data, 2010 compared to the most recent 2017.
Look at the growth in 200k plus household incomes – 161,561 more households earning $200k+ in 2017 compared to 2010.
You could argue it’s just marginal move-up, but look at the growth across the $100-150k ranges (up 41,791 households), and $150-200k ranges (63,478 households).
Below that, you have across the board losses of what would be considered solidly middle class $50-100k.
Also, between 2010 and 2017, NJ added more than 46,000 households.
We have roughly 267 thousand households in the $100k and up household range, that were not there in 2010.
Not two thousand, not twenty thousand, two hundred and seventy six thousand.
HOUSEHOLDS, not people.
The vast majority of those are not in the $100-150k range, they are in the $200k+ range.
Comparing 2000 to 2017 (Census to ACS)
2000 – Households by Median Income
$100-150k – 391,123
$150-200k – 130,492
> $200k – 132,837
Total – 654,452 Households – 21.4% of all NJ households
2017 – Households by Median Income
$100-150k – 568,645
$150-200k – 310,082
> $200k – 419,389
Total – 1,298,116 Households – 40.3% of all NJ households
Wow, really shows a bifurcation. The middle clsss has to leave and can so they will. The “rich” are ok and perhaps so are the poor as their quality of life remains similar with stste and fed aid and progressive tax rates.
My town is building 400 townhomes starting st $640k up to $770k.
CNBC just reports that the average new car “cost” in 2018 was $36,900.
Bristol Myers Squibb buying Summit-based Celgene. I skimmed the merger presentation and noticed deal features $2.5b in synergies, mostlt layoffs. Celgene employees, get those resumes updated.
Grim, thanks for the stats. What a comeback by NJ’s upper middle class.
Today’s North Jersey could be the second richest place in the history of the world. Only Silicon Valley tops us.
ADP payroll number comes in pretty hot at 271k
Can someone tell Tim Cook that you can’t keep relying on the iPhone for infinite growth? When all else fails, blame Donald Trump.
More people moved out of this state than any other in America..NEW JERSEY .https://nypost.com/2019/01/02/more-people-moved-out-of-this-state-than-any-other-in-america/
The number of wealthy are increasing dramatically.
Great, bring it on. I hope all the riff raff leaves Jersey. I just raised the sell price (if I choose) 5% based on this news. Can’t afford it? Leave.
More people moved out of this state than any other in America..NEW JERSEY
Leaving just the productive class based on Grim’s numbers.
I’d love to know the average income of the people that moved out of the state.
Going to see some new for sale listings in Summit..
Celgene based in Summit, NJ being acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb out of NYC for 74 Billion.
Whispers that BB is where the growth is at.
re Apple.. US based Grandmas yearning for yield should stop chasing the FAANG stocks that is for sure.
Apple is becoming the Blackberry of China as we speak.
Apple sells a commodity now (just like Blackberry did) that can be replaced with much cheaper devices, there are six large Chinese companies are copying their phones and selling them for around 200 dollars and making a killing doing it.
Investors here namely grandma etc don’t understand the Chinese ecosystem. WeChat rules with integration, no other apps really needed in China to shop, bank, be social etc. Tencent aka WeChat has over 90o million daily users, and about 40 billion messages are sent on the platform every day.
You can run your day on a cheaper Huawei device in China, no Apple needed.
Who cares about China? China is pre-trump free traders global corporate world that is on way out. Did you heard what Xi said yesterday about Taiwan?
Apple, and all hi-tech, or frankly any American corporation that wants to survice, should quietly, but as fast as possible get their stuff out of China’s greater area.
The clouds are gathering. State and government dynamics are reasserting themselves over the fool’s theory of corporate supremacy.
No wonder towns do not realize significant savings from shared services agreements… because the State passed a law preventing it.
https://www.nj.com/gloucester-county/2019/01/cops-say-they-were-illegally-terminated-when-police-department-was-disbanded.html
re: “Who cares about China”
A global economic slowdown means recession for all.
Place your bets accordingly…
Why would they leave? They have their governor, they have their party. They shall inherit the earth (even if they are eventually moved off to South Jersey earth).
The poor haven’t gotten the message to leave yet.
Of all the stuff I sold last year, I’m glad I held 1000 shares of CELG.
Joyce – The shared services nonsense was a joke to begin with passed by the legislature to placate the taxpayers back in the Corzine administration. There are still 565 municipalities with taxing authority, and they keep tinkering with the law. Murphy signed a new bill tweaking the law around Thangsgiving when nobody was paying attention.
They would need to regionalize services by county not onesie-twosie agreements where nobody gets fired. Only regionalization will result in real savings, mostly the redundant administrative workers just like when companies merger. Too many fat mayors and their staff. Just look at Hoboken. Mayor added another aide to the payroll at $100k, and the council passed a resolution to eliminate job, then the Mayor vetoed it.
Too much home rule and patronage…If you want to live here you have to put up with it, it’s a part of Joisey that will never go away.
Fleeing West, Northwest and especially South Jersey…I would guess. Also possibly far fewer year round households at Shore counties.
People are clustering around the “Acela Corridor” in the NE. Check out this map of how people voted in 2016 for a visualization. The blue horizontal cluster is the “Acela Corridor”.
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1022471310453157888
Truesue says:
January 3, 2019 at 8:19 am
More people moved out of this state than any other in America..NEW JERSEY .https://nypost.com/2019/01/02/more-people-moved-out-of-this-state-than-any-other-in-america/
Super interesting income numbers Grim. If I were to guess on an explanation, it would be this:
Income 2010 2017 Net
Sub 10k 174342 172726 -1616
$10-15k 130977 103134 -27843
$15-25k 270609 228875 -41734
$25-35k 256073 225465 -30608
$35-50k 353152 309181 -43971
$50-75k 541530 481249 -60281 Urban Poor and South Jersey Poor (surviving mainly on DEM government cheese).
$75-100k 414452 400052 -14400 This group (ghetto rich) survives barely, but will move to the Poconos soon enough.
$100-150k 526854 568645 41791
$150-200k 246604 310082 63478 This is the realm of the state worker. They’ll leave, but not before they retire and are replaced by a new teet-sucking parasite. I would expect the non-pensioned middle class to start shrinking these numbers too. Especially the 100-150 range.
$200k 257828 419389 161561 We can afford to stay so we will.
Total 3172421 3218798 46377
What’s really amazing is how many are now over 200K!!! If the lower classes leave, NJ might turn RED. Could you imagine that?
Does BMY/CELG mean a lot more M&A in Pharma for 2019? Potential pricing pressure means “synergies” needed to extract more value. Fear not for the long time CELG peeps. Their stock made them wealthy a long time ago.
My FIL made 7 figures on CELG*. He told me that if a stock treats you well, you should always save 1000 shares, just in case. When I took over his portfolio at the end of 2014 I was shocked that he no longer held any CELG; he didn’t take his own advice. To my calculation at that time, he would have made several million more had he just did what he said to do. I promptly bought 1000 shares. I’ve traded it some over the years, but I’ve held 1000 shares.
*at the time he thought CELG was a winner, somewhere around the turn of the century, I bought many long dated call options. As luck would have it, my options expired a month or two before the stock popped.
Does BMY/CELG mean a lot more M&A in Pharma for 2019? Potential pricing pressure means “synergies” needed to extract more value. Fear not for the long time CELG peeps. Their stock made them wealthy a long time ago.
Same with my town, up to 799K…
1987 condo says:
January 3, 2019 at 7:27 am
Wow, really shows a bifurcation. The middle clsss has to leave and can so they will. The “rich” are ok and perhaps so are the poor as their quality of life remains similar with stste and fed aid and progressive tax rates.
My town is building 400 townhomes starting st $640k up to $770k.
CNBC just reports that the average new car “cost” in 2018 was $36,900.
Kushner firm wins records dispute against Jersey City
https://www.nj.com/hudson/2019/01/kushner-firm-wins-records-dispute-against-jersey-city.html
“It’s a sad day when a public official like Mayor Fulop, and the city he controls, is found to have blatantly violated the law, contrary to the oath of office he took,” said the developers’ attorney, Joseph B. Fiorenzo. “We will now find out what the city, and Mayor Fulop, have been hiding concerning the political machinations surrounding the award of tax abatements in Jersey City.”
City spokeswoman Ashley Manz said the city will likely appeal. Taxpayers should not have to pay for a “pointless and futile fishing expedition,” she said.
“The Kushners’ sense of entitlement is embarrassing for them as they are so detached from reality that they think they can bully a city into giving them money,” Manz said. “It is absurd and isn’t going to happen in Jersey City.”
The developers began seeking documents in June, the same month they filed the federal action that accuses Fulop, the city and the Jersey City Redevelopment Agency of putting the brakes on the One Journal Square project because of Fulop’s animus toward President Trump (Kushner Companies is run by the family of Trump son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner). Fulop’s May 2017 announcement that he did not support a tax break for One Journal Square was the first public signal that the project was in trouble.
Any link to the report data?
Any questions?
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 26, 2018 at 9:12 am
BTW, I’m looking for about an 8 session net rally in the S&P 500, but I might be out again right as Pelosi picks up the gavel.
Mike S —yes $799k here at Hovnanian in CG.
Lib-maybe if “rich” stay..get older..NJ will turn Red..would be pretty funny. Of course all my “rich” friends live in Montclair so that wont happen!
Anybody looking for a short term port in a storm? I just bought 2.35% 3 month CDs (Luther Burbank Bank, maturity 4/18) at Ameritrade.
ExPat – Pelosi may be the only adult in the room.
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/02/nancy-pelosi-pay-go-rule/
When “I” lived in Jersey I was acutely aware of Towns and their prestige. It was not a secret where you wanted to end up “for the kids sake”. Diversity? yeah right. But we all know that in the end it is up to kids. What they accomplish and what they are able to do in their respective surroundings varies wildly. Humble towns sometimes breed awesome offspring.
$150k club made up exclusively by small towns without ‘hoods or projects. High concentrations of high income NJans also live in areas where low income households torpedo the median.
Hoboken (population 50,000) 42.9% of households $150k+ including 30.6% $200k+. Jersey City 07310 (population 13,000) 49.8% of households $150+ including 29.8%+. Both these areas have large housing projects that drag down the median.”
Dems take the House and the DOW plunges.
Any questions?
Juice – The Tony Soprano/ISIS type of adult?
Nancy Pelosi’s daughter described her mother in an unusual way this morning, telling CNN that the Congresswoman could “cut your head off and you won’t even know you’re bleeding.”
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/02/alexandra-pelosi-nancy-pelosi-daughter-cut-head-off-trump-meeting-newday-vpx.cnn
ExPat – Pelosi may be the only adult in the room.
Bad zip code gives you a leg up in applying to college……
ExEssex says:
January 3, 2019 at 11:03 am
When “I” lived in Jersey I was acutely aware of Towns and their prestige. It was not a secret where you wanted to end up “for the kids sake”. Diversity? yeah right. But we all know that in the end it is up to kids. What they accomplish and what they are able to do in their respective surroundings varies wildly. Humble towns sometimes breed awesome offspring.
11:27 totally. Right!?
11:22 – If it were that simple….
11:24 right about now the GOP would loooove to have Occassional Cortex in that Speakers Chair.
Fulop has a long history with the Kushners….never bite the hand that feeds you. They groomed him, he was their plant and they were relying on him to get their JC projects going. Fulop has known the Kushner’s since his childhood and was close friends with Jared’s cousin Jonathan.
My father was pretty plugged into the NJ democrats and the Hudson county machine. When Fulop took office his comment was the for sale sign is out. The new guy is a real crook, the other guys were small time comparatively. Some of his operatives came from Kushner, he needs to tread carefully Charlie will take him down.
‘People are clustering around the “Acela Corridor” in the NE. Check out this map of how people voted in 2016 for a visualization. The blue horizontal cluster is the “Acela Corridor”.
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1022471310453157888
‘
I love these maps. There are more people in one of those little blue boxes than the entire left half of the map.
Her name is Sandy
ExEssex says:
January 3, 2019 at 11:52 am
11:24 right about now the GOP would loooove to have Occassional Cortex in that Speakers Chair
Odds of a Fed rate CUT in March are rising.
Hilarious!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1080858959404240896
Freshman Congressman Andy Kim, NJ03, who promised “new leadership” and promised not to vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker…just voted for Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
She stands zero percent chance.
Who in the world holds options until expry day?
The Original NJ ExPat says:
*… As luck would have it, my options expired a month or two before the stock popped.
He won the 3rd District by 4000 votes(?)
That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see how it works out for him…
D-FENS says:
January 3, 2019 at 2:47 pm
Freshman Congressman Andy Kim, NJ03, who promised “new leadership” and promised not to vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker…just voted for Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
Occasional Cortex voted for Pelosi.
How brave.
Ten year is at 2.57!
Is the mortgage market saved?
Ha ha what a dunce. Incoming NJ congressman, Jeff Van Drew…when asked who should be speaker of the house voted “no”.
Say a name dope.
Van Drew’s constituents are in for a long two years. They’ll never get anything from Pelosi for their district now.
Dissecting the household income growth numbers given above I don’t see the same overwhelmingly positive trends for NJ…as a matter of fact it is pretty negative….here goes:
For the changes from 2010-17, I haven’t even analyzed them. This data set isn’t particularly relevant. The starting point is the trough immediately following the massive declines of the Great Recession; the end point is the high point of growth of the ensuing seven year expansion. Any results are contaminated by this trough to peak comparison.
For the changes from 2000-17 the data selection is solid, each measurement point is near the top of an extended economic run. Problem is that analysis of those results show a fairly bleak picture for NJ, not a positive one…
From the data NJ added 286,000 households earning >$200k in the period from 2000 (133k households) to 2017 (419k households).
Also from the data above there were 522k households earning between $100k-$200k in 2000.
Every single one of those households (522k) would be earning over $200k in 2017 if they simply grew their income 4.2% annually. Instead, there was only a net increase of 286k households over $200k in 2017.
To benchmark the 4.2% rate, national GDP grew 3.9% annually during the same period.
So, stated differently, if everything else remained static then NJ lost about half of the $200k+ households it should have seen over that period if incomes had simply grown at basically the national growth rate of GDP.
There are clearly other factors at play…out migration of high earners, retirement of high earners, etc. I would note, however, that while these may be partial explanations they are not positive for the State either…an aging population or a net exit of top earners are not positive events.
The fact is at an income growth rate that approximates only the national level (another disappointment, one would hope incomes in this area grow substantially faster, no?) there are 236k fewer households in NJ earning $200k+ than the data would suggest. The data shows a fail, not success, for the state.
Lessons: Absolute numbers without context have little meaning and compound growth off any base is a powerful tool.
Fire away….
You want to check that 3.9% annual gdp growth, from 2001 on the US never hit 4% growth in any quarter and hit 3.8% once…..
Note that household incomes are also correlated to gains on asset sales. Household income isn’t just salary. One could quibble that the year 2000 was an unusual starting point in terms of NJ people having gains selling assets (1999 even more so).
Many people in any given year that fall into a higher income category are there only for a year – when they sell some asset for a gain. This includes “millionaires” who perhaps sold their business that year or took a big capital gain in stocks, who might make dramatically less in surrounding years. Back in 2000, there were probably secretaries cashing in their Lucent & AT&T ESOPs and/or options, pushing them into a higher income bracket temporarily. There’s some of this every year, but when markets are high I suspect there’s more of this than usual.
Maybe Cellgene will create a pop in the number of households realizing gains in NJ this year. But they could disappear soon.
3:38, totally agree on the impact of one time gains. especially when used in ‘class warfare’ tax the rich type arguments. the data is the data though with all its limitations.
3:34, i’ll be totally embarrassed if i blew that simple a calc but i found gdps to be 10.252T and 19.485T. looks right eyeballing it.
Nevermind, I am looking at real, you are looking at nominal.
long out-of-the-money calls. Tell me which words you don’t understand. If you buy a year out, they sometimes aren’t worth the commission to close.
Who in the world holds options until expry day?
The treasury market is;-)
Is the mortgage market saved?
“The treasury market is;-)”
Absolutely!
So glad the shitbag from Montclair isn’t my Rep.
Yeeeesh.
Sounds great until you factor in the economy falling off a cliff and how hard it hit this state. Took a long time for this state to recover.
“Every single one of those households (522k) would be earning over $200k in 2017 if they simply grew their income 4.2% annually. Instead, there was only a net increase of 286k households over $200k in 2017.”
Grim,
Fabulous job with data presentation today. Some people will still deny it, even though the data is smacking them directly in the face. It’s truly annoying to listen to someone claim that nj is dying because of taxes and high costs. There is a lot more that goes into an economy besides low taxes and low costs. If we had low taxes and low costs, it means no one is making enough money to drive up costs and taxes. It’s literally impossible to maintain low taxes and low costs in a high paying area, simply impossible. If this was not the case, places like nyc and San Fran would have been dead a long time ago.
Life in bucolic Colts Neck is truly a dream
https://nypost.com/2019/01/03/tennis-instructor-accused-of-kidnapping-sexually-assaulting-student/
It’s truly annoying to listen to someone claim that nj is dying because of taxes and high costs. There is a lot more that goes into an economy besides low taxes and low costs.
The entire middle class leaving? Yeah, that’s due to high costs and taxes.