An Icon Falls

Posted on January 31, 2019 by grim
This entry was posted in Economics, Employment. Bookmark the permalink.

35 Responses to An Icon Falls

  1. grim says:
    January 31, 2019 at 6:09 am

    Highly doubtful they will rebuild.

  2. The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 31, 2019 at 7:33 am

    An engineer and an attorney were fishing in the Caribbean.

    The attorney said, “I’m here because my house burned down and everything I owned was destroyed by the fire. The insurance company paid for everything.”

    “That’s quite a coincidence,” said the engineer. “I’m here because my house and all my belongings were destroyed by a flood and my insurance company also paid for everything.”

    The puzzled attorney asked, “How do you start a flood?”

  3. The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 31, 2019 at 7:59 am

    Believe it or not, we still have New York Yankees branded Marcal Yankees Hankies tissues from when we lived in NJ a quarter century ago. My wife informs me we still have unopened boxes of same.

    Marcalculate and Save!

  5. chicagofinance says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:31 am

    Hi I’m Nick Marcalus.
    https://youtu.be/ZPtjyqgZAUk?t=42

  6. chicagofinance says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:38 am

    leftwing: from yesterday….. there is no “smarter” this time, just new names and faces……. lather, rinse, repeat.

    I wonder what would happen if China implodes, and then suddenly there is a societal “margin call” and mass liquidations happen, and cash needs to be repatriated.

    chicagofinance says:
    January 30, 2019 at 8:57 am
    I hate to be so negative. I been through these cycles several times now, and I have also studied a lot. There is no “smarter”. There is only legal, regulatory and institutional restrictions on behavior. The persistent problem is that people never have an equity style stakeholder return on take risk. People are generally playing with effectively a call option only. The volatility play is always on the upside, with downside risk either non-existent, limited, or subsequently written off when borne. Add to the fact that they keep minting new people into these roles (either as professionals, first-time home buyers, or nascent investors) and there is little relevant intellectual capital retained from cycle to cycle.

    Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it.

    Yo! says:
    January 30, 2019 at 6:22 am
    Housing market balance is perfect. Bankers and consumers acting smarter this cycle. When 4% and 5% home price appreciation stats make headlines, you gotta know things are going right.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:50 am

    Yup, it’s always a surprise that takes it down. This scenario would actually help Americans at the expense of the Chinese. If they are forced to sell, American investors will be licking their lips, waiting to catch that falling knife. They would take complete advantage of the Chinese weak position.

    chicagofinance says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:38 am
    leftwing: from yesterday….. there is no “smarter” this time, just new names and faces……. lather, rinse, repeat.

    I wonder what would happen if China implodes, and then suddenly there is a societal “margin call” and mass liquidations happen, and cash needs to be repatriated

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:53 am

    Jewish lightning. They used this fire to move to a cheaper state, but who knows. Sure seems like it.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:56 am

    Remember how the Japanese drove the market up and were then taken complete advantage of. I’m sure the same fate is coming for the Chinese down the road.

  11. Juice Box says:
    January 31, 2019 at 9:19 am

    Perhaps a worker did not want to go outside to smoke cigarettes?

    News reported many fires at Marcal over the years including one caused by lightning in 2016.

    “April 3, 2016
    During a storm, Elmwood Park firefighters responded to the Marcal Paper facility on Market Street at about 3 a.m. to find part of the structure’s roof on fire, Borough Fire Chief Mike Pressler said.

    It appeared that the building’s main smokestack, which has lightning-rod protection, had been hit by lightning, sending bricks and debris onto the roof and setting it on fire, he said. The blaze took place at a two-story section of the Soundview facility, and was mostly confined to the roof, where it left a 40-by-40-foot hole, Pressler said. The firefighters were done at the scene by about 5 a.m., and no one was injured, the chief said.”

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/local/2019/01/30/fires-part-marcal-papers-long-history-elmwood-park/2728174002/

  12. Juice Box says:
    January 31, 2019 at 9:23 am

    Pumps that was the Japanese purchasing commercial real estate in prime locations like Rockefeller Center at the time those were called Trophy properties. It wasn’t a double wide in Passaic county hinterlands.

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 31, 2019 at 10:30 am

    St. Barnabas Hospital spokesman Steven Clark said that the lawsuit was without merit.

    https://abc13.com/woman-mistakenly-oks-ending-strangers-life-support/5111565/

  14. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    January 31, 2019 at 10:41 am

    Went to grad school with a guy who married another grad student from China. Father in China purchased a $600k home for them. A lot of them aren’t speculating, they are parking it in hard assets with no intention of flipping. It beats holding your money in yuan and treasuries are a waste of time for them at this point.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 10:52 am

    Lol…definitely.

    Juice Box says:
    January 31, 2019 at 9:23 am
    Pumps that was the Japanese purchasing commercial real estate in prime locations like Rockefeller Center at the time those were called Trophy properties. It wasn’t a double wide in Passaic county hinterlands.

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 11:23 am

    Was reading an article about Nintendo. That company’s story is impressive. Constantly rising from the dead.,…

  17. leftwing says:
    January 31, 2019 at 11:40 am

    Yeah, agree chi. Particularly prescient to add the ‘professionals’ to the constantly rotating queue of newbie enablers.

    Red doing alright. Clarkson split didn’t hurt them, still holding 9 in the pairwise.

    https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 12:25 pm

    “New-home sales rose 16.9% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, the Commerce Department said Thursday.”

    “Despite the November increase, sales of new homes were down 7.7% compared to a year earlier, suggesting a bumpy housing market over the broader term. Higher mortgage rates and a runup in prices have dented home purchases over the past year.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-new-home-sales-surged-in-november-11548947691

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 12:30 pm

    “The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening hasn’t just paused; it may be over.

    That’s the most logical conclusion to draw from the statement released after the central bank’s meeting Wednesday and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Fed statements often contain a “bias,” a hint of whether the next interest rate move will be up or down. Wednesday’s had none: The Fed will be “patient as it determines what future adjustments” to make to rates, it said.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-mysterious-pause-11548893175

  20. joyce says:
    January 31, 2019 at 12:50 pm

    I would think the real family of the person who died may be entitled to damages. I wonder how hard the hospital is going to work to find out his true identity.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 31, 2019 at 10:30 am
    St. Barnabas Hospital spokesman Steven Clark said that the lawsuit was without merit.

    https://abc13.com/woman-mistakenly-oks-ending-strangers-life-support/5111565/

  21. chicagofinance says:
    January 31, 2019 at 1:07 pm

    How many 33-38 year old MD’s have no idea what is about to hit them? Just praying that they can get an extra 12-36 months out of this cycle so they can make some of the money others have booked.

    The Red really fcuked it up. Friday was the warning shot when they pulled it out of their a$$ and Shafer got c0cky and started the back-up goalie at home and it cost him.

    leftwing says:
    January 31, 2019 at 11:40 am
    Yeah, agree chi. Particularly prescient to add the ‘professionals’ to the constantly rotating queue of newbie enablers.

    Red doing alright. Clarkson split didn’t hurt them, still holding 9 in the pairwise.

    https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

  22. chicagofinance says:
    January 31, 2019 at 1:12 pm

    The Red have Clarkson twice, Union twice and Yale in New Haven. That’s the season right there. I hope they get a chance in Quinnapiac in Lake Placid at full health.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 2:09 pm

    Chi,

    You know how I feel about this current cycle (best economic boom of our lifetime and prob will never see it again….willing to even say the best and longest economic boom ever). So interested to see your perspective and what I’m seeing wrong.

    You really think prices are out of control at this point in the cycle? I don’t know, I feel like we are smarter this cycle, most likely from the psychological damage that occurred from the last bust. Instead of speculating, people seem to be overly cautious, to the point they self-correct (not true correction, but knock it down enough) the equity and housing market almost every year. I just don’t see wild speculation out there, I see no euphoria, I just see ultra cautious moves with investments.

    This is what I see, maybe I’m totally off. Would love to hear your thoughts as you are older and wiser than me.

    chicagofinance says:
    January 31, 2019 at 1:07 pm
    How many 33-38 year old MD’s have no idea what is about to hit them? Just praying that they can get an extra 12-36 months out of this cycle so they can make some of the money others have booked

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 2:22 pm

    They seem to have control over this. Slow and steady growth. Nothing crazy, which limits the risk of bust or recession.

    “If the Fed thinks it’s done even if the economy performs as expected, that raises another, troubling possibility: that the neutral rate, adjusted for inflation, is only about 0.5%, compared with 2% in the past.

    In the last six weeks Mr. Powell does seem to have shifted his views on inflation risk. He seems to have concluded that the lowest unemployment in 50 years isn’t going to push inflation back above 2% anytime soon, and that would be a prerequisite to tightening again.

    If real rates above 0.5% are a threat to both economic growth and 2% inflation, then that suggests the economy is fundamentally more fragile than in the past.

    Moreover, this seems to be a global phenomenon. Since this expansion began in 2010, global growth has yet to top 4%, as it routinely did before the global financial crisis, despite rock-bottom rates around the world. That would be the best explanation for why the Fed is done. It’s just not an uplifting one.”

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 6:04 pm

    “Resilient U.S. Economy Fuels Best January for Stocks in 30 Years
    Banks and smaller companies that were among the market’s laggards last quarter have helped stocks to their best January in 30 years, a sign investors are favoring sectors tied to the U.S. economy.

    Thursday, despite a modest performance from U.S. indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed the month with their biggest gains since the 1980s. The industrial average’s 7.2% rise was its best January performance since 1989, while the S&P’s 7.9% advance was its best start to a year since 1987.“

  26. Yo! says:
    January 31, 2019 at 6:08 pm

    Going to be difficult for Marcal to get financing to rebuild. It is owned by a private equity shop out of Greenwich, Connecticut. The guys aren’t going to us their own money.

    Will be interesting to see if an apartment developer goes for the site. My guess is a warehouse developer buys it along with Marcal owned land across I-80 and builds 2 warehouses. NJ warehouse market is one of hottest markets of any property type right now.

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  29. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:13 pm

    I don’t bring value to this blog….right.

    You demanded a specific call, I said buy all the apple and Amazon you could….

    “Amazon Reports Third Record Profit in a Row
    Amazon reported its third record profit in a row, capitalizing on a strong holiday retail season and its growing, high-margin businesses like cloud computing and advertising.

    The Seattle-based company reported a profit of $3.03 billion, or $6.04 per share, up from $1.86 billion, or $3.75 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue grew 20% to $72.38 billion”

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:15 pm

    And don’t come discount that call either. I was calling to “buy” when there was massive amounts of blood on the streets. Nuff said.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 8:16 pm

    *In the streets

  32. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    January 31, 2019 at 9:43 pm

    Now Post Apple’s results

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 10:38 pm

    I don’t care about the short term. I understand that future generations won’t know Apple as a “phone” company….here lies the wisdom in the call. They are a well equipped juggernaut in an era some term the “second guilded age.” They are the best managed company in the world. The long term numbers will follow. Amazon is right there with them. Both companies have been written off, left for dead, and rose from the ashes. They know what it takes to adapt and change like no other. I have no doubt in my mind that they are safe long term investments.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    January 31, 2019 at 9:43 pm
    Now Post Apple’s results

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2019 at 10:49 pm

    “This new ver­sion of the old dis­rup­tive duo—au­tomation and glob­al­iza­tion—will lower the head­count in many ser­vice-sec­tor oc­cu­pa­tions. The “globotics” trans­for­ma­tion will not be gen­tle. Given the ra­pa­cious progress of digi­tal tech­nol­ogy, these changes will dis­or­der pro­fes­sional and ser­vice-sec­tor jobs rad­i­cally faster than glob­al­iza­tion dis­rupted the man­u­fac­tur­ing sec­tor in the 20th cen­tury and the agri­cul­tural sec­tor in the 19th cen­tury.”

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