From Bloomberg:
New Jersey Home Prices Head for 12% Drop on Bottom-Feeder Feast
The housing market in New Jersey is about to get crushed.
Home sales in the state, second only to New York in coronavirus cases, may fall as much as 45% this year from 2019, while prices will drop as much as 12%, according to Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation, a real estate consultant in Matawan, New Jersey.
“People will be taking homes off the market and in spite of that, this will be a buyer’s market, with low inventory,” Otteau said. “It’s unusual.”
Getting a sale will require a deep discount, maybe 20% below what the seller was planning to list for, he said.
“If you don’t need to sell now, take your house off the market and re-evaluate in the fall or next spring,” he said. “If you do go to the market now, there will be a price for that. The price will be that you’ll be at the mercy of bottom-feeders.”
First!
This is too easy. I must be the only fool still working and getting up early.
Frist
Damnit!
Bottom feeders. I guess this guy can predict the future now.
I think this will reshape the market a bit. For companies, the are going to decentralize. That affects the megalithic HQ building RE and heavy commuter towns.
I think all of the boomers carrying multiple properties are going to rethink that as well. They are going to reduce travel and exposure to heavy population areas.
It isn’t irresponsible to state that bottom feeders will be trying to take advantage of the coronavirus impact on the real estate market. My trouble is where Otteau came up with the projection of 12% depreciation. I would like to know what assumptions this was based upon.
I look at it differently. Human population is moving away from rural decentralized locations to centralized locations. A lot of people can’t and don’t want to live in rural areas anymore. Even if they work at home, they will still want to be located in a heavy populated centralized location. Life is too boring for most in low populated areas. They can’t handle it. No attention span combined with rural setting is a recipe for suicide.
It’s obvious that anyone looking to buy in this economy right now has a good chance to be a bottom feeder. Just common sense, imo. If you are serious about selling, don’t waste your time right now. You will waste your time to feel butt hurt about the price being offered to you on your home.
I believe there is no way to accurately predict what the impact on real estate values will be from the coronavirus. So much depends on how long this takes, how deep the economy sinks and what help banks offer to mortgagors who are unable to make payments.
The only firm belief I have is that high end, very large homes with high carrying costs will be disproportionately impacted by this crisis. This is the same segment already beaten up by the last crisis in residential real estate.
Media loves a number – if he wasn’t willing to provide a number, there would be no article.
Deadconomy, do you have any
bottom feeder recommendations for locations on a macro level? Or more of the same as in 2010 – fl ,ga, Arizona? I would like to invest in more jersey rentals but the prop tax kills your profit when you have to let a prop sit for a few months. I enjoy out if state rentals as there are a lot less headaches.
A lot of one truck builders in my town doing home rehabs, buying an existing house then gutting and redoing it, then asking 600 to 700k plus 15k in taxes. Then there is the Mc mansion building going on as well, some with 900k and up asking prices, and 20 to 30k in taxes. I don’t see how or why this will continue going forward after we move beyond the pandemic. I think younger people buying will re-evaluate that kind of financial commitment. Big difference from my generation when we were buying houses in our 20s and doing it on one income.
A drop in prices would be a good thing.
I am hopeful that when sheriff sales eventually resume in NJ that bidding will be less competitive. Many of the inexperienced bidders will have been shaken out. Experienced bidders will be more conservative due to the many unknowns which will impact the market value of their auction purchases.
One of my cousin’s kids (married, early 30s, two young kids) bought an 8,000 square foot home a few months ago for $2 million in the Morris County. It’s a cavern.. taxes are 40K plus. The sales history on it doesn’t show much difference in the last 20 years. Good luck with that one!
A drop in prices?
Who needs to live here now to work? I can do my job anywhere now, companies are going to have a hard time mandating closed in working spaces. We have remote workers all over this country already and all over the world. Why do I need the expensive overhead of NYMetro? Answer is I don’t. I can go live in Florida with no state income tax, and the sales tax is 6 percent. What does that mean to me? Another $30k a year or more in my pocket? A property tax that can put another $10k in my pocket every year? A 700k waterfront home in Naples is only$3k in property taxes. I fly up once a month for Facetime with mgmt stay at my brothers place for a few days go visit dear old mom and then fly back. I am really considering it now folks.
An interesting factoid that I am a bit ashamed to only just learn:
Joe Biden first ran for President in 1988!! Guy has been in politics for 48 years and running for President for 32 of those years.
Am I supposed to believe that FINALLY America is ready for his brilliant policy choices? Or is it more likely that he is just not suited for this job and has been shown that fact by the voting masses for more than 3 decades?
Some antibody studies now coming out.
Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to covid-19 in one small town in Germany.
It’s a town with 12,529 inhabitants and they tested a representative sub-sample of around 1,000 people. 14% had antibodies. 2% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 15% were either immune or currently infected.
The numbers suggest that the overall case fatality rate infection fatality rate in the town is 0.37%, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
Biden is going to have to risk infection to campaign, and so is Trump. Antibody test will clear up pretty quickly who has greater odds of actually making it to November 3rd and beyond. I am voting for the candidate that has the immunity. Sounds fair right?
The only place that I ever worked at where people discussed politics regularly was academia as a graduate student.
Walking, if you have an appetite for risk; look into Florida, Vegas, and oil bust Texas. Those are ultimate boom and bust markets on a consistent basis over decades. This is not a long term play. Give it some time, let these job numbers go to work, and then find your desperate seller. Cruel, but no one said capitalism is nice.
For long term plays and safer plays, places around northeast metro areas. Boston, nyc, wash dc. These places are solid gold real estate wise. Pretty damn stable and great inflation hedge while collecting premium rent. Long term appreciation is rock solid too. That’s what separates these markets from the boom and bust markets.
If you live in nyc metro, just bottom feed in places in northern nj that are still somewhat affordable that will inevitably rise. Check out places like East Rutherford or basically anything along rt 3. Can’t lose long term, imo. If you can get anything for 10% or more off market value, consider it a nice win. If you want serious deals, go to the boom and bust markets, but know that you could lose significant money.
Juice I said the same thing a couple of weeks ago. Once more companies realize WFH is doable more will do it. Cost savings is compelling. And with two income couples and young kids it has to be easier to have one or both WFH every day.
Yes, saving money, but you are still living in FLORIDA. Trading Nyc metro for Florida is big got damn price to pay in terms of culture. Only decent people out there are rich retirees in their gated community. Like a scene out of the walking dead, safe in the confines of the development, but surrounded by zombies.
WFH equals no life. And why set yourself up for always being available for your employer. Oh, you are sick, but could you look up these numbers for me. Oh, it’s your kids birthday, but could you do this quick favor me. It’s a slippery slope, be very careful of opening this door. Your employer will own you 24/7, especially if you are on salary as opposed to hourly.
Your employer will own you 24/7, especially if you are on salary as opposed to hourly.
WFH, I find myself logging on at 7:00 AM and working until 5:00 PM at least… or being available during this time sans a shower and some food. The standard 40 hour week becomes the standard 50 hour week. No commute necessary… from the bed to coffee pot to laptop is the duration of the commute. I’m not sure if I want this way of life.
Surrounded by zombies…As if NYMetro does not have plenty of zombies.
How do you think the NJ pension deficit is doing with what they have invested in the stock market?
Can’t be good, right?
Fast Eddie
Working from home You can set up your personal laptop or iPad and binge watch Russian car crashes on YouTube while you work. Doing that makes me feel better about myself.
I don’t disagree that WFH has drawbacks as noted, but I believe it’s where we are going. And as I said if you are a two income couple with young kids it’s a huge benefit in spite of the noted negatives. As for the culture of NYC, blah blah, most surburbanites from what I have seen don’t utilize all that, when their kids are young; too busy raising them. As for Broadway it’s over priced , and all Disney crap or recycled plays from the past from what I can see.
Gated community? That is for the poor folks, price keeps zombies far far away from waterfront homes.
Prices are already dropping like a rock in Florida. The 2010 low will be coming back from the recent highs down there. It will be a blood bath there soon, the highest ever unemployment in modern times will see to that.
Juice,
https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody
3b – There is no way any of us will be going back to the office now. It looks like my kids won’t be going back to school until September, the governor of PA just closed schools there for the remainder of the year and an NJ is about to follow suit. I have no idea how I am going to keep them busy for the next 10 weeks with the school work still being sent home and we are now the teachers as well as my wife and I working our jobs full time too. We may make it through this school year but I am not betting on being her for the next one.
Today’s news “Florida Gov. DeSantis mulls reopening schools: Coronavirus ‘doesn’t seem to threaten’ kids”
I’ve made my triumphant return because NJREREPORT IS MY HOME IN A CRISIS!!!
Where’s Clot? BC Bob?
The longer this goes I can’t see this being good for real estate short term or long term.
Short term is the clustermuck with showings/inventory/financing you are likely to see for the next 12 to 24 months. The longer this goes the more mortgage defaults due to job loss. Even with a six month moratorium of evictions there’s no guarantee those let go are coming back at the same income. Consequently I don’t see how you don’t have a sizable inventory increase in most NYC towns. Financing’s not going to be as easy either considering the government’s focusing on propping up small business and the bond market.
As far as commercial, short term I know Cheesecake Factory and Dick’s have already told landlords they aren’t paying April rent and invoking force majeure clauses.
Long term it’s going to become evident that many of these white collar jobs don’t need to be performed in a centralized location.
Ten years ago this would have been a mess but the increase in bandwith and security has made working remote pretty seemless.
Consequently long term employers in Manhattan are going to realize they don’t need the real estate footprint they currently have and it’s going to be an easy way to save costs going forward between having employees work from home or through consolidated swing space in a home office.
Tell me where I am wrong?
Dead economy = you know who?
Jocye more telling.
96% of the community’s residents identifying as African-American, so based on this small sample the virus will have run it’s course in that community soon.
The genetic study being done in NYC right now shows the strain infecting most people in our area came from Europe, that is a long way from Wuhan.
HEHEHE – Staples too not paying rent, and many others will follow suit.
You aren’t wrong companies are going to restructure for survival now including banking all costs are on the table.
Clot made an appearance on the first thread, he is still in the People’s Republic of Ithaca.
Juice I feel for you and your wife. It must be tough trying to WFH and home school your kids.
He he there has been so much office space and residential building in Manhattan it’s insane and all the building that were being renovated, and or converted to residential. I don’t know what happens with that , but high rents and high prices are over in my opinion.
Juice was that really Clot? And why is he in Ithaca?
North Jersey culture? LMAO
How many people actually go into NYC for pleasure on a regular basis, especially if they have little kids? And with people having kids in their late 30’s and early 40’s by the time the youngest kid can handle walking around nyc all day the parents are around 50, out of shape and get tired easily, especially after a long work week and commuting.
How many times a year can you go to the MET or another museum before that gets stale? Living in Florida or Texas the money you save on income tax alone could easily fund a few 4 day trips a year to nyc including airfare and hotel.
With the internet you can order just about any food or product you want and watch any tv show or movie you want.
And with nationwide restaurants and coffee chains you can get the same processed plate anywhere you live.
And as for ethnic foods you can only get in jersey I call BS. I know of 5 independent pizza and italian places in my area that are run by families that left brooklyn or the bronx for DFW area because of taxes, cost of living, and quality of life. There’s only 1 good bagel place. You can get Chinese take out like in jersey pretty much same menu and quality level. There are at least 10 korean, chinese, and vietnamese grocery stores within 40 minutes of my house, all either have food courts or are in a plaza that have a variety of asian restaurants and specialty shops. There are also hispanic and Indian grocery stores with restaurants in their plaza too.
Texas law also mandates if you are in a certain percentile (I think its top 7%) of your high school class you automatically get into the University of Texas and top 20% you get into other state colleges
The middle class towns and cities have great public park systems. Even the creeks that are prone to flooding have linear walking and biking trails that are miles long.
But keep thinking NYC metro area is so wonderful as you pay 14k a year in taxes for your 500k POS cape that’s older and in worse physical shape than our presidential candidates.
I’ve been WFH for 15 years in IT. I’m a loner, appreciate not having to make small talk or celebrate an office birthday. The long hours piece is true for me, as is always being available. Since this has gone down the last few weeks I’ve noticed a lot more people online later in the evening. Seems everyone wants to prove they’re showing up. Personally, I’ll take time for myself/family whenever I like because my employer will take time from me whenever they like. It’s a different way of approaching work and you have to look out for yourself. Show up for meetings, deliver, answer emails between 7-6 and take time to run to the store, pick up kids at school or fix that broken door handle in between.
Juice,
Thanks re Staples.
The list is going to continue to grow the longer this lasts.
One upside I see possibly coming out of all of this, and it will only manifest itself over several years, is that you will see some manufacturing return to this country that’s been sent out to places like China.
The increase in jobs likely won’t be huge, some will be offset with automation, but it will definitely help the communities where those jobs end up.
Hold my beer: I agree. The close to cultures of NYC is just crap, realtors use it to justify prices and people use it to justify paying the big
Bucks for houses in north Jersey suburbs. When our kids were young we went to the city once a year to see the Radio City Christmas show or Scrooge. A brokers broker used to get me expensive tickets for the whole family. It was an all day event, and we were exhausted when it was done, and we were a lot younger than 50!!
HEHEHE – Company in Texas that makes the N95 masks has said that their production was ramped up last time for H1N1 and as soon as that ended the BUYERS (hospitals etc) went right back to the cheaper masks made in China and his business dried up. Unless the government mandates it the production will never come back and stay here for PPE etc.
One upside I see possibly coming out of all of this, and it will only manifest itself over several years, is that you will see some manufacturing return to this country that’s been sent out to places like China.
Yes. I agree. And, after watching that video of the wet markets in Wuhan, I’ll never eat Chinese food again… as a political statement and because it makes me nauseous to think of it.
Bingo, fast eddie. There is no dividing line between work and home. There is no cutoff where you get to go home.
We will learn the hard way. Just like we learned the hard way with saving money by closing our factories and moving them to China. Saving money is not always a good thing if the costs outweigh the benefits. Of course executives will grab the low hanging fruit again, and doom a generation or two with their bad choices.
Been to Radio City Christmas show more times than I can count. Broadway plays, museums, concerts, sporting events, restaurants, night life etc etc etc. Heck I lived in the city for most of my life. I barely go back to visit, it just no longer appeals. A nice boat, a fishing rod, golf, outdoors, fresh air, good fences, a barbecue, my kids sporting events. I am going to set myself up in a cheaper local when the housing prices crash this time and they will. Waterfront, Pool, nice but not too nice low taxes home will do for me and my family.
Hold, I get it. You moved to Texas, not sure it’s such a great move, and trying to justify by making claims nyc gets boring. Look how many people live here and how much it costs? If people really didn’t like this area, the price would decrease to be more in line with the place you moved to.
3b, you take this culture for granted. If you were raised in Florida you would know how different someone from the nyc metro area is from them. Of course, your bias tells you that you are culturally just like the rest of the country. Keep telling yourself nice little fairy tails if it makes you feel better. I’m not going to waste my time trying to convince you that the nyc metro population is the same as the rest of the country.
Joyce, care to be more specific since you referenced me.
Juice,
I am not just thinking about PPE products.
Any company that does manufacturing has had their supply chain wrecked because all of that manufacturing is in China.
I believe some of them are going to learn the benefit of having supply not centralized in a single country.
As far as PPE problem with hospitals being the buyer is many are in trouble financially and once a crisis ends they go back to as needed inventory.
I could see the government as a buyer and supplier for lots of that stuff.
Deadeconomy: It’s you and the fairytales Son. Born and raised in NYC, so I can comment with some authority. I can’t help it if you over payed for your house and are now trying to justify it. By the way you sound a lot like Pumps!! Hmmm!!
My spouse just returned from Shoprite, says big gaps on shelves in every aisle, had to wait 30 minutes on line to get in. Okay, some of you wanted s0c1al1sm, you got it.
Overpaid for my house? What does my house have to do with anything? Just throwing stuff out there and hope it sticks? You are all over the place. Agree to disagree.
Roaring 20s 2.0
deadconomy says:
April 10, 2020 at 11:36 am
Joyce, care to be more specific since you referenced me.
dead
Not trying to justify anything.
Trying to point out so many people I know in New Jersey think Texas culture means eating fried chicken and bbq while wearing cowboy boots on your way back from church.
The rural areas may be more like that but the metro areas are not. And since there are 9 million people in North Texas it isn’t that hard to find people with the same interests and values you have.
I think the quality if life is higher in the DFW area with the variety of things to do and cost of living. We just don’t have any museums you can go to all day like Museum of Natural History and the Met, You have to go to Houston for something like that. The Perot Museum and Dallas Museum of Fine arts are probably only 3 or so hours to go through. But we have the Fort Worth Zoo (rated in the top 5 in the country), Dallas Zoo and the Dallas World Aquarium.
Culture is a funny thing. Most people wouldn’t know culture if it bit them In
The ass.
This is culture amiriiiiiite:
https://youtu.be/ffCEr327W44
Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-found-solution-coronavirus-103003618.html
Deadeconomy We were having a nice discussion on what’s going on currently, and when it came to NYC and real estate and some of us said we believe prices will be negatively impacted , you dismiss it as fairy tales, and then throw in the tired old NYC culture blah, blah, past experience shows for me that these are the comments of someone who either over payed for their house and needs to rationalize as to why it is justified. Once that view is challenged it’s dismissed as fairy tale. And I am now convinced you are pumps, you should have just scrolled by my comments if you did not like them.
Eddie the GOP seems comfortable with redistribution as long as there is no oversight and they can line their own pockets.
Looks like we have achieved herd immunity in Bergen.
A house in Wayne that sold for 650,000 in 2011 now has a zestimate value of 658,000.
Factor in property taxes and realtor commission when sold and this guy lost money after almost a decade into his investment.
Does WFH mean that employers will start to shop talent outside of the Tri-State with hopes of lowering costs? If so, won’t that leave more people in the Tri-State with big mortgages, property taxes competing against those whose COL is 30+% less? Any of you have jobs that would not allow WFH?
Eddie the
GOPdemocrats seems comfortable with redistribution as long as there is no oversight and they can line their own pockets.There, fixed it.
Looks like we have achieved herd immunity in Bergen.
Explain.
Nomad Exactly. Companies are probably already doing it. I know of companies, where the manager is in NYC, and he/she has people reporting to them from different locations in the country.
Trump abruptly ousted Glenn Fine, the acting inspector general at the Department of Defense picked by a panel of fellow IGs to oversee the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, which acts as the taxpayers’ watchdog for the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package Trump signed into law on March 27.
Mnuchin said Trump’s pick to replace Fine, Sean O’Donnell, the inspector general for the Environmental Protection Agency, “has a lot of experience, and I look forward to working with him.”
“I think, as you know, we very much support proper oversight,” Mnuchin said.
Is that a command?
Fast Eddie says:
April 10, 2020 at 12:55 pm
Looks like we have achieved herd immunity in Bergen.
Explain
12:54 clueless much?
I get where he’s coming from. I was a remote worker for two years a while back. For most of that time, I was a work-from-home evangelist who told everyone within earshot about the benefits of avoiding the office. No commute! No distracting co-workers! Home-cooked lunch! What’s not to love?
But I’ve been researching the pros and cons of remote work for my upcoming book about human survival in the age of artificial intelligence and automation. And I’ve now come to a very different conclusion: Most people should work in an office, or near other people, and avoid solitary work-from-home arrangements whenever possible.
Don’t get me wrong: Working from home is a good option for new parents, people with disabilities and others who aren’t well served by a traditional office setup. I don’t think we should ignore health guidelines and force people to work in an office during a pandemic. And I’m sympathetic to the millions of teachers, restaurant workers and other professionals for whom working from home has never been a viable option.
But for those of us lucky enough to be able to work from home, coronavirus or no, a few words of caution are in order.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/technology/working-from-home.html
Is that a command?
Why do you ask?
Subway, MattressFirm have joined the no rent from us during the pandemic club. Urban Outfitters actually looks like they announced it last week too.
Eddie,
Keeping in mind that its the taxpayer who is paying for the multi-Trillion dollar packages that airlines and other get, does it bother you? Had these organizations not blown big sums on buybacks and taken on debt to do so, they would have been better able to handle all of this on their own. Furthermore, the CEO and CFO are paid handsomely to be capital allocators and if buybacks are the best they can do, perhaps they are not qualified for the job.
The typical response to my post would be the D pro-welfare agenda etc etc. No argument here but while the partisan back and fourth continues, Rome burns and the smoke and flames along with mirrors for many decades are what got us to where we are.
Perhaps a Cuomo DeWine or DeWine Cuomo ticket is the answer. Beliefs and ideologies aside, these two appear vastly more capable than the two offerings we are going to pick from. Put them on one ticket and let them has out differences and a reasonable middle ground.
Gary,
I thought it was funny.
University researchers find ‘no additional decline’ in coronavirus infection rate from lockdowns
https://www.thecollegefix.com/university-researchers-find-no-additional-decline-in-coronavirus-infection-rate-from-lockdowns/
Perish the thought that people might look at this elite research team’s findings and ask their elected leaders to justify life-ruining, economy-destroying, health-worsening lockdowns with actual evidence that they #SlowTheSpread by themselves, not just piggybacking on less draconian measures.
Tsai may worry that this finding will be trumpeted by people with motivations he dislikes, who want to end the ruin that their governments have visited on their lives, pointlessly as it turns out. To be in good standing with the public health establishment is to favor draconian restrictions on daily life, or so we’ve learned.
But he can’t just bury the single most newsworthy finding of the research, so he tries to nullify its importance: “It is very difficult to identify the independent effect of lockdowns.” Don’t make the assumption that “lockdowns don’t work” by looking at research that … found no evidence they worked in this case.
The CEO of Boeing gets fired and gets 60 million for his efforts!! The system is broken.
I thought it was common sense that nyc is a special place, not just in this country, but world. Yet, I’m being told otherwise. Why so upset over this? What is with your anger towards nyc?
Dallas is a great place, but it’s not nyc. If you are ambitious, smart, and consider yourself amongst the best professionally, nyc is where you will find yourself. It’s where you are meant to be. Is it meant for everyone, no, but it is meant for the best.
If you want a laid back lifestyle, nyc is not for you. If you want to grind and live a fast paced life, nyc is for you.
Now if what I am saying upsets you, I can’t help that. It is what it is.
It’s official people Pumps is back!! He found out blog reopened and has been passing himself off as someone new. But the obsession with house prices and close to NYC was too much and so he outed himself. Too bad. It was nice when he was gone.
Ok pumps. I mean deadeconomy
3b, obsession with house prices close to nyc? What exactly are you talking about? Have a good day, sir.
How’s that Roaring 20’s 2.0 looking ya fraudster?
Looking a lot more Great Depression 2, electric bugaloo.
Can we just but the lyingist liar on ignore. It was so pleasant when he was absent.
Lib Will do. It’s just so pathetic that a grown ass man would behave the way he does. It’s pathetic.
joyce,
I only give commands in very particular situations. ;o
“Today’s rally was apparently about the govt buying junk bonds, and stimulating a junk rally.” I’m told the part of the Fed action dealing with junk – which had to be engineered around existing statute – was a preemptive step to avoid any cracks in money market funds which those who were around in ’08 will recall was a major issue. Apparently, with a slew of low rated IG ready to go into fallen ange1 status some funds are exposed. The junk bond action is about market plumbing, like the repos. Interested in your view, Chi.
“DON’T FIGHT THE FED…As an aside, if the market moves meaningfully up from here, the short-squeeze will be the buttfcuking of the century…..”
With you, brother. Market was trending down into unemployment claims. That Fed bazooka, and especially that it was announced concurrently with the claims release, was no coincidence. They are all over this situation and micro-managing. Go back and listen to Powell’s presser from yesterday, around 11am. I’d like to use the term ‘dog whistle’ to represent his remarks but there was no such subtly. He flat out said “how ever much it takes, for however long”. Holy Sh1t…..On the short buttfcukery, yeah, totally agree. I noticed a couple days ago that SPY itself went HTB. Can’t ever recall that happening. So hedging my BAC short, and consistent with my headline market pump thesis on the recommendation of a treatment by FDA shortly, I have an equally decent size situation in a low cost, defined risk, high return OTM call spread. Won’t be lucky enough to catch both sides, although it is possible, but covered either way.
Bottom line for me on the markets is know which market you are trading. The best fundamental work can’t overcome trading the wrong market. Since the decline started, against all efficient market theory, we are headline driven even for events that are known to be coming down the pike. Right now, the preponderence of pending headlines are positive. Ant1body test. Flattening curves nationwide. Unneeded field hosp1tals. FDA backed treatment. Short term, market up. Medium term, once we get beyond the exuberance and relief of these items and actually start evaluating wtf it all means and how we re-open and just how badly the economy and individuals have been harmed there will be plenty of time to reap some shorts. Especially since, at that time, we will be at peak political season for the election and with the human toll behind us there will be a massive piling on negative numbers as the candidates and parties hop into the ring.
Coronas deaths underreported in NY. People who dies at home or on the street aren’t being tested.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-170100636.html
Juice thanks for the CP interview link. He had a long one on cnbc yesterday and a recent podcast on recode/decode. Brilliant macro thinker.
“Dead economy = you know who?”
Yeah, it is. At least he seems to be on some medication this go-around.
The ‘got damn’ at 10:09 is the tell.
Bingo
yeah pretty obvious deadconomy is he who’s name shall not be uttered. I’m actually surprised not took him this long to come back given that he isn’t working.
That being said desirable areas of the country are not cheap and urbanity is the general trend. Generally north jersey is not at all urban and despite the prognostication of pumps it will not become urban. I fully expect there will be a general property market recession and NYC, NNJ, etc will not spared. I also expect there will be recovery in markets like Hoboken, jersey city, Montclair, ridgewood, Millburn….
In general NJ is not overpriced, I could not buy my Home in many other markets for what I paid for my home here. My wife has family on MN and they paid more for a smaller yet similar home. The difference is the taxes, I would be great with my NJ home if not for the obscene taxes. I guess I’m a little different in that I prefer older homes, new homes are missing the character. My 1920’s home was built by Irish and Italian craftsmen, the attention to detail and out and out quality of what was done is so highly superior to what we have done today. These types of homes in established neighborhoods don’t come cheap in any market.
On work from home, it isn’t as effective as we think. Over a longer term more face time is needed, people need to work closely to be effective, do we need to see people every day probably not but weekly or monthly helps. I’ve noticed that more meetings become needed and getting people on the same page. Largely work that is easily sent off has been sent overseas already.
Do I need to shut the blog down again?
Whoa, whoa…whoa… easy now.
I think this is just a great example of why shutdowns don’t work.
Once you open back up, the virus just comes back.
The only suitable option is to nuke it from orbit.
Herd Immunity in Bergen because it’s now transitioned to one of the slowest spreading in NJ.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/n-j-s-hot-spot-bergen-county-sees-major-slowing-of-virus-rates
Hold,
TX is nice, I lived there too, but 4-5 months of 100F days day and night are terrible. Not for everyone who grew up here.
WFH is not for everyone, did 3 years and ran to an office afterwards now turning to WFH again for a year or two. It is very personal but it doesn’t work well if you have career aspirations. BTW, most work is continuously outsourced anyway. Our favorite spots are East Europe, Greece, Bulgaria etc. They have the best time-zone for customer range. It is as affordable as India yet low turnover.
We do pretty well in Bulgaria. Warsaw is killing it for higher-end IT.
Polska makes me happy.
Here is my take on Nashville growth: the region is growing, but you are correct that it is not astronomical growth (the metro area might gain a few hundred thousand people this decade, which is fast, but not even close to fastest in the country in real terms). For Tennessee it is astronomical, because most areas of Tennessee are slow growth (Memphis, Chattanooga, Tri Cities, etc).
What is changing vs. the past is that people are returning to the city proper to live. For many decades (especially the 1970’s through to the 2000’s) the downtown proper area was not a place to live. I remember being downtown in the 90’s and half the buildings south of Broadway were grungy cinder-block industrial type structures, some abandoned, others like oil change shops built in decades’ past. There was little in downtown outside 2nd and broadway. Most all the growth used to be in out-county areas (subdivisions popping up in Antioch, Bellevue, or out of Davidson County in Hendersonville, Mt Juliet, Murfreesboro, Brentwood-Franklin). Downtown Nashville has been reinvigorated by a bunch of Millennials that want to live in the city proper. There might be 10–20k condo and apartment units that went up downtown.
THIS is what has changed, and its given the city a feeling of growth. One 20 story tower can house hundreds of people, as opposed to one or two single family home plots.
In general, Nashville’s economy isn’t that great. I know this is not popular to say, but so many of the jobs in the area are warehouse workers in La vergne barely making $10/hr if they are lucky, maybe $15/hr after they’ve been with the company for years. OR the workers at Home Depot making the same, because they are supplying many of the bathrooms in these new homes.
Nashville is not a high wage metro area, lots of people have few benefits and subsist on low wages. Its the classic American story of the have and the have nots. If you have a good paying job in Nashville, count yourself lucky.
Nashville, like its peer Charlotte (another moderately growing southern ‘burg), is still a hillbilly town at its core. Lots of people love’em some Jesus and its fairly fundamentalist in the outer areas around Davidson, lots of low wage jobs, lots of southern speak. Its still a hillbilly country town as well, afterall its the HQ of country and RFD TV. Enough to make my ears hurt and kill a few of my brain cells. LOL
I know it is absolutely sacreligious to say this, but the most interesting culture in Tennessee is found in Memphis. The soul, blues, and rock background is intensely more engaging and edgy. Yes, people in Memphis still love Jesus a bit too much – it IS the south afterall – but its got more cultural heft its its thumb than Nashville has in its body. Nashville is a city that thinks way too highly of itself.
Now that the capitalist class real estate moguls moved into Nashville and over-priced it for the locals to live in, maybe more will move down the road to affordable Memphis and its better cultural scene. The artsy crowd certainly should, you can get a decent place in Memphis at half the rent rate in Nashville these days. And Beale St is sooooooo much more interesting than Broadway for those who aren’t rednecks, which artsy-fartsy communities tend not to be rednecky.
If “growing so fast” means population or economic growth outside national or international nominal rates, it isn’t.
Nashville’s population, according to its Chamber of Commerce’s “Vital Signs” projections, is growing at 0.9%/year overall.
This is the projected nation average US growth rate.
And why is it set at this, in the Chamber and other planners’ projections?
As far as I can tell, because Nashville is so small and insignificant overall (there is only one analyst at ESRI who covers the region!) that no one has taken the time to figure up any better growth metric— and why would they, for a combined city/county “metro” political entity of 650,000 or so— so apples-to-apples, a city that’s only about 350,000 when comparing to how most other cities count their population?
From approximately 2010 to 2017, Nashville and its surrounding MSA had slightly accelerated population growth that maxxed at about 1.8% in 2015 or so. It’s not hard to figure out why; it only takes 3500 people or so to bump up your population growth by 1%, and at the start of this period there was plentiful housing in the area available under $100,000.
Even at $325,000 today, houses that seem unbelievably expensive for locals (the average working class income according to the major’s office, ranges $18–24K) must seem quite a bargain for those selling out of smaller properties in San Diego, Portland or Boston at prices well over a million. Regardless, influx has notably slowed as the market has changed.
And that single analyst over at ESRI? He wrote in a report back in 2012, that nearly a hundred people a day were moving to the 9-county Cumberland region around Nashville, an area about the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island. Some “journalist” at the Tennessean read this in a Chamber report, and wrote it up as “over a hundred people moving to Nashville a day.”
Voila, the myth of massively growing “It City” was born! and with one food section columnist from Williamsburg, taking a sojourn in East Nashville for cheap rent, the baby and the bathwater began to grow.
A hundred people moving to Nashville a day would be about 36,000 a year, for a phenomenal 5–10% growth rate. But I’m afraid people around these parts, aren’t so good at math— Nashville-Davidson Metro schools being rated in the bottom 10%, of a state that ranks in the bottom 10% of schools nationwide. Alas.
It amazes me that myths about strong jobs growth and availability persist. Health care lost over 35% of jobs in the above period. The military is the #1 employer in the MSA, followed by light & medium manufacturing— which is mostly in the periphery. One year, real estate agents were the largest employment category after this. Nashville, from a sectoral analysis perspective, is strictly a tertiary city with very limited economic diversity and opportunities.
Otherwise, yes, there are some cranes and construction going on in Nashville. From the perspective of someone who has visited and worked in 136 cities or so in the past 5 years, such growth is happening everywhere worldwide, from Mexico City to Paris to Istanbul to Kuta Kuta in Bali— there’s a huge amount of investment capital available, coupled with a need for urban housing as— you may have guessed it—
people continue to have babies (roughly exponential growth) as available land to put them on, remains constant.
re: Here is my take on Nashville
Nah Knoxville is way better, just ask Mayor Kayne…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWFxUzeb8XQ
All my buds that moved downtown in early 2000s are killing it right now.
They are walking away clearing $1m. Having lived there nearly 20 years for free.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/half-of-those-who-died-of-coronavirus-in-nj-had-these-underlying-medical-conditions.html
50% of people who died in NJ from Coronavirus have had underlying conditions
29% had cardiovascular disease;
17% had diabetes;
10% had chronic lung disease;
7% chronic had renal disease;
7% had neurologic conditions;
6% had cancer.
Officials said another 15% had other chronic conditions.
Is obesity in that 15%?
Professor Didier Raoult Releases the Results of a New Hydroxychloroquine Treatment Study on 1061 Patients.
The new study, of which the abstract was released today, was performed at IHU Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France. A cohort of 1061 COVID-19 patients, treated for at least 3 days with the Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin (HCQ-AZ) combination and a follow-up of at least 9 days was investigated.
Key findings are:
No cardiac toxicity was observed.
A good clinical outcome and virological cure was obtained in 973 patients within 10 days (91.7%).
A poor outcome was observed for 46 patients (4.3%); 10 were transferred to intensive care units, 5 patients died (0.47%) (74-95 years old) and 31 required 10 days of hospitalization or more.
The authors conclude that:
“The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis, is a safe and efficient treatment for COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 0.5%, in elderly patients. It avoids worsening and clears virus persistence and contagiosity in most cases.”
See the complete abstract below.
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Abstract_Raoult_EarlyTrtCovid19_09042020_vD1v.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2Bx-Fldm2fFsLg7L06BYUz-8QvwuJ-hAW9uWmwx1KdKzCU0YGHtSwXXWw
NJ just approved use in nursing homes. Pretty sure Murphy isn’t going to mention that on his press conference.
Week old but pretty good stuff if you have an hour.
Oil and Gas, Airlines, Logistics, Hospitality, Banking….these company are now bankrupt…we now need to shift to a more resilient system. Talks about getting people back to work in bands and then supply change changes here.
Pomp Podcast #256: Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya on How To Invest in This Crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hA3TV1bGsg&feature=emb_logo
Very good interview.
re: “NJ just approved use in nursing homes”
A friend a doc told me during training they were taught pneumonia is an old persons best friend.
I know someone who owns one of these old fogey homes, kids are friends at school. He checks them in and out like a hotel, all concierge until the bill well if it ain’t paid what do you think happens. Really ugly stuff that is normalized in our society.
My plan is to use my sailing skills and head out into the sea, no need for shuffleboard and canasta, i’ll be too way busy for that. Me and Jaws have a score to settle…
Grim out of curiosity what do resources in Eastern Europe cost? My experience is largely with India and I know developers run anywhere from 15k-50k salary, through a consulting firm(cognizant, tcs, Wipro) 40k-60k(consulting rates from $215-350 per day depending on the skillset). We haven’t been thrilled with the quality it is highly inconsistent, some good but many, many bad. We recently have started using EPAM but they are considerably more expensive for an experienced developer in Poland or Russia the rate is like 100k annually plus the company has on-shore people they place to coordinate. The throughput because the time difference, language, and generally shorter hours is about 60-70% of what our developers in California are doing plus we are carrying an extra 2 people to basically ship the work and translate what the users are asking for.
On Nashville, the real estate market will crash, I’d also say the same for NYC, Hoboken, Jersey City, etc the economy, i.e actual money in people’s pocket doesn’t begin to support some of the property valuations. Compare with North Jersey where realistically house prices are in a lot of places still at 2001 level, these places have appreciated many fold. If this quarantine really turns into recession/depression who will be able to buy these places. I expect prices to fall everywhere but what has appreciated many fold in the last decade has more room to fall.
Grim, you didn’t need to move to Nashville in the early 2000’s to clean up, Jersey City would have covered you. Literally you could have bought houses in Jersey city heights for 100-150k, today you can tear those down build 2 apartments and sell for 1.2-1.3, we are talking about 2500 sqft of build, stuff I could have bought for 300k in 2002 is going for a million, a 500k brownstone downtown is worth 1.5m or more. If it wasn’t for the economic collapse, Newark would be the next place.
I had a job in London and was slated to fly to Wroclaw for a week after. The London job is now a remote engagement and I hope to fly to Wroclaw with my daughter whenever this blows over.
Non PRL-era apartment building housing in Wroclaw is ridiculously expensive. Either pre war high ceiling row flat in center of town or something very new on two floors wit h a yard sized about 100m2 (1070 sqft) is 800-1MM zlotys. (4-4.2FX) so $200-250K. The issue with that price is that people take home about $2.5-3K USD. The going per square meter is 6-9K zlotys or 1.5-2.25K USD / 10.7 = $150-225 per square foot.
Grim, do you happen to know the going rate in zloty for PM or mid level consulting fin/it? Curious is my informal poll is way off.
BRT,
Chamath killed it the other day on CNBC. It created ton of discussion and support. This guy is a real smart guy we need more of.
Juice, what those French doctors are saying is to use these two medicines early before things get bad. Unfortunately in the US it seems like people are waiting until ICU, when damage is already done, and is less able to help.
And most media are stubbornly dug in against it. Seems no news streams are eager to broadcast the French results. They are more focused on the idiot fish tank couple. If this is real, the media will have blood on their hands.
Unfortunately in the US it seems like people are waiting until ICU, when damage is already done, and is less able to help.
NJ is permitting nursing homes to administer it. I’m sure the anti-Trump crew is furious.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/04/10/new-jersey-loosens-restrictions-hydroxychloroquine-nursing-homes/5134490002/
I think people may think twice before paying big bucks to be stuffed into apartments in Hoboken, JC , West NY etc They are expensive because of proximity to NYC and cheap money which drove prices higher. If the NYC companies really embrace WFH on a large scale, proximity to NYC won’t matter.
I started taking elderberry, oil of oregano, and turmeric this week.
I don’t understand why antivirals aren’t prescribed when people start to show symptoms. Waiting till they are hospitalized seems like waiting till gangrene sets in on an infected wound before giving antibiotics.
Cuomo trying to explain why the forecasts were so much higher than reality
NJ ranked number 1 for affordability when raising a family. Proves that this state is made for raising families. That’s what it is really good at. How many kids go on to become successful after being raised here…
If you are a single millennial or retiring, yes, cheap locations (the Raleighs and Nashvilles etc)makes sense. If you are raising a family, let’s be real.
https://wallethub.com/edu/best-states-to-raise-a-family/31065/
… A Texas doctor used his GOP connections to get hydroxychloroquine to administer to dozens of elderly patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in what he calls an “observational study.” … In some cases, he didn’t discuss with families before prescribing the drug.
https://t.co/w5ay1UYE7v?amp=1
the doctor turns out a GOP politician and served as vice chairman of the Republican Party of Texas from 2006 to 2010.
A bit too much nihilism in him. Interesting perspective. I think he is a bit stunted intellectually not due to pure intelligence, but rather than he went from rags to riches quickly. He is interesting, but also spends too much time lecturing people. You can tell.
njtownhomer says:
April 11, 2020 at 1:44 am
BRT,
Chamath killed it the other day on CNBC. It created ton of discussion and support. This guy is a real smart guy we need more of.
I bet his life is one big episode of Shark Tank
I don’t know if the blog being shut down reinvigorated the discourse, but thank you to everyone for your input during these last few weeks.
There are a few in here that need to dial back on the gasliughting.
https://medium.com/@juliovincent/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0
Damnit. Michael is back
This has been a reset moment and a lot of people have had time to reflect on whats important.
There has been horror. The mass grave being dug in NYC is chilling. Watching people lose loved ones and not being able to be there for them at the end. Not being able to bury those that you love.
But there has been a lot of positive. A time to look at your life and be thankful for what you have or be able to identify what you need to change.
https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/you-dont-have-believe-god-witness-crucifixion-week
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/malinowski-jokes-withholding-lysol-shipments-kentucky-mcconnell
Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J., joked during a recent livestream with constituents that a county in his district should withhold shipments of Lysol disinfectant to the state of Kentucky until Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., relents in his opposition to Democrat-backed vote-by-mail measures amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“A fun fact about Somerset County — we make 100 percent of the national supply of Lysol disinfectant,” Malinowski said in the video, posted by conservative Garden State political blog “SaveJersey.com.”
The politicizing of everything in this country is disgusting. The fact that Trump said that the drug cocktail might be effective would not stop any doctor I know from using it.
Those who claim otherwise are full of sh1t.
The politicizing of everything in this country is disgusting. The fact that Trump said that the drug c0cktail might be effective would not stop any doctor I know from using it.
Those who claim otherwise are full of sh1t.
I find Chamath valuable. He’s one of about eight people I actively seek to hear their views as they are mostly proven correct. He’s painfully analytical, well informed, and intelligent.
Nihilist and lecture-y? Yeah, I’m thinking he may be perceived that way…people with those traits often don’t have a natural rpm limiter…they’ve done their homework and they’re right, they can see the outcome, everything else is futile, and any debate can be thwarted. So unless they make a conscious effort to hold back – almost impossible given the work involved to get to their conclusion – I can see someone viewing them as lecture-y or even downright overbearing.
Anyway, he steamrolled Wapner on that CNBC interview, as he should have. Just go back and listen dispassionately to the arguments each was putting forth….Chamath was all reason and data, Wapner all emotion and feelings.
I like the guy…I find ways to look at situations differently from him which has the side benefit of helping me make money. In that CNBC interview he distinguished between “price takers” and “price makers” in this environment using convertible bond offerings as an example. Go back and listen. Apply it to other events occurring (in that context of course reasonable retail and restaurant companies like CAKE will survive and prosper, and delay paying the rent). Want investment ideas for when we come out of C19? Think of companies in that context.
So, it’s macro thoughts like that I appreciate. Simple, clean, rationale, supported by data and history which are often obfuscated by all the intellectual and emotion clutter and chatter flying around.
He didn’t (unless I missed it as I was multitasking at times).
grim says:
April 10, 2020 at 9:57 pm
NJ just approved use in nursing homes. Pretty sure Murphy isn’t going to mention that on his press conference.
Grim, something in moderation…
What’s the difference when something goes into moderation v just disappearing in cyberspace anyway?
TYIA
Libturd,
To be fair, the comments in here are referring to media and gov… not doctors.
I think I’m getting a refund on my airline tickets, flight was cancelled and rebooked. When I called today, there was no discussion. They immediately said they’d process a refund (United).
Nice. I’ll be getting a refund on ours as well. They somehow turned our Newark to Toronto 1:20 minute flight into a 6:30 one stop in Philly from LGA. United has a policy where if the flight changes by more than two hours, it’s eligible for a refund.
Today Barbara Corcoran, net worth $80 million, answers questions on Covid-19’s impact on real estate at her LinkedIn page. She also can reached at 1 888 Barbara.
When will the nurses realize that the only real heroes are those of the thin blue line. You can ventilate an innocent man holding a cell phone, get suspended with pay, free attorney, then walk claiming they “feared for their lives.” Then pass the entire bill to the taxpayers.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/another-nj-nurse-is-fired-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak-in-dispute-over-protective-gear.html
I like the gaslights in glen ridge
D Fens Unfortunately he is. No matter what happens north Jersey real estate prices is all the guy cares about. What can you say? It’s just amazing.
Hospital administrators are the worst
Hello folks, whatz the prognosis of NNJ real estate along Rt 3??.
The roaring 2020 is actually 2021.
What caused 3b to take such a negative position on living in the nyc metro area? Can anyone solve this mystery? This hate must have a source.
Other mystery. Why does he continue to live in a place that he hates with such passion?
Rt 3 is easy money as a long term play. It’s a major vein attached to the heart of NYC.
Roaring 20’s with a virus wiping out the world economy?