From the Record:
More than 850,000 NJ workers have filed for unemployment since COVID-19 crisis began
Close to 20% of New Jersey’s workforce has filed for unemployment benefits in the last five weeks to cover lost income, as businesses remain shuttered and social distancing measures to stop the coronavirus continue to be enforced.
Between April 12 and 18, 140,139 new people submitted unemployment claims for the first time, compared with 10,737 claims that same week in 2019, according to data released Thursday by the state Department of Labor.
That brings a total of 858,000claims filed since mid-March, when these unprecedented spikes in applications began as Gov. Phil Murphy began ordering businesses closed in a piecemeal way.
These numbers don’t capture the many New Jerseyans who continue to experience technical issues when trying to trying to file, or can’t reach a claims agent to submit their applications. And while the federal stimulus CARES Act that expanded unemployment is mostly implemented in New Jersey, workers who previously used up their benefits are still awaiting guidance for how they can receive their extra 13 weeks of insurance.
This historic flood of out-of-work individuals is reflected across the country: Nationwide, close to 4.4 millionpeople filed for unemployment last week. Over the last five weeks, close to 25 million people submitted claims across the country.
We will be well over a million in two weeks.
Another big failure pending.
From CNBC:
Mortgage bailout balloons by half a million more loans in one week
As the economic shutdown drags on and job losses mount, more borrowers are opting to delay their monthly mortgage payments through mortgage forbearance plans.
The majority are doing it through a program designed to provide relief to holders of government-backed home loans, part of the coronavirus CARES Act relief package.
Just over 3.4 million borrowers, representing 6.4% of all mortgages outstanding, are now in forbearance plans. That’s an increase of 477,000 loans in just one week, or a nearly 9% jump, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data and analytics firm, which is running weekly tallies.
These forbearances represent $754 billion in unpaid principal. They include 5.6% of all loans backed by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and 8.9% of all FHA/VA loans. At the current level, mortgage servicers are required to advance $2.8 billion of principal and interest payments per month to mortgage bondholders of government-backed loans.
On Wednesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, announced the servicers would be bound to make these payments for 4 months. Fannie Mae usually requires payments be made for up to a year. Regardless, servicers of GSE-backed loans could still face more than $7 billion in advances, given the number of loans in forbearance thus far. Some said the move is not enough help for servicers.
“While this news reduces servicers’ worst case cash flow demands considerably, we continue to call on the Treasury and Federal Reserve to provide a liquidity facility to ensure that servicers can continue their important work of advancing missed payments to investors as well as paying property taxes and insurance premiums on behalf of struggling borrowers,” said Bob Broeksmit, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
If people skip mortgage payments for an extended period they will never be able to pay it back in a lump sum or even double payments once they are working again.
Some kind of refi is required, pretty soon a huge amount of loans need to be recast at a lower rate too perhaps negative like some places in a Europe.
There was some discussion about a lump sum added at payoff – but it doesn’t sound like that is possible if servicers are still responsible for making the payments on behalf of homeowners.
What about taxes and insurance which also get lumped into mortgage payments? 40% of my payment is not bank related.
Have we exceeded the unemployment rate during the Great Depression? We’ve got to be getting close.
In other news…
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/23/842818125/coronavirus-has-infected-a-fifth-of-new-york-city-testing-suggests
‹cite›
Based on the preliminary results of the first round of antibody testing conducted across New York, state officials estimate that 21.2% of New York City residents have contracted the coronavirus. Statewide, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said an estimated 2.7 million residents — or 13.9% of the state’s population — have been infected.
That tally vastly outpaces the officially confirmed number of cases in the state, which stood at more than 269,000 as of Thursday afternoon ET.
‹/Cite›
So that means it’s lethality is reduced to 10% of it’s current estimate… Right?
Correct.
Then, take those corrections, and look at the age-based mortality rates for covid-19.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
For those 44 and under, the already low mortality rate goes far lower.
Heh. So at those general rates it’s basically a really nasty flu that specializes in killing unhealthy things.
Like the old, people with preexisting conditions, and the economy.
Did you know that you can buy full uncut sheets of US paper currency from the Gov’t ?
Given enough hyperinflation, it might become interesting wallpaper.
Gap Inc. is rapidly burning through cash as its stores remain shut during the coronavirus pandemic. The clothing company said its future is uncertain if it doesn’t get the help it needs to keep its business operational.
The company issued a dire warning in a regulatory filing Thursday that $1 billion in cash has evaporated from its accounts since February. Gap said it might have as little as $750 million in the bank as early as next week.
Gap said it needs to take “additional actions to both preserve existing liquidity and seek additional sources of liquidity” over the next year because the money it’s currently making isn’t enough to sustain operations.
The one I mentioned is bigger than Gap.
Whole bunch of retailers are headed to bankruptcy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2020/04/03/retail-companies-on-death-watch-is-growing-fast-as-covid-19-puts-non-essential-retailers-on-life-support/#385dc7f425ea
Morris County – 52% of covid deaths related to nursing homes.
Further evidence of complete mismanagement of this pandemic by government.
Talked to a nurse employed by a nursing home the other day. They said it was impossible for them to get PPE. No masks, no hand sanitizer, nothing.
It was all being diverted to hospitals.
The Gap is so last century anyway
There were absolutely no restrictions on employees coming and going.
Janitorial and aide staff were absolutely not provided PPE due to limitations. These were people in and out of rooms every day.
Good presentation from 4-21 by Ivy Zelman, generally regarding as the best housing industry analyst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVkt4-tyr0Q
Growing up if you wore Gap or even worse Sears Roebuck jeans you were made fun of. I used to beg my mom to buy Lee or Levi’s at are bare minimum. Jordashe was a thing too, the semi nu*de poster and the videos in the Back from the 1980’s
http://www.liketotally80s.com/2014/07/jordache-jeans/
Elderly with co morbidities are most vulnerable, so let’s send CCP+ nursing home patients back to their nursing homes and not provide PPE for the workers. What could go wrong?
Can Murphy’s Emergency-Borrowing Plan Survive Constitutional Challenge?
https://www.njspotlight.com/2020/04/can-murphys-emergency-borrowing-plan-survive-constitutional-challenge/
Cousin who just turned 59 has put in his retirement papers. He swung a hammer for 35 yrs in NYC, was furloughed as construction is stopped in NY. Anyway he will be leaving and headed down south to live, going to build his retirement home in a suburb of Charleston and rent or sell his home in NY state.
New Jersey’s numbers of infected have increased substantially since yesterday… about 400 more than the previous day. I thought today we’d take the number one spot for the number of new cases. We’re about 1,500 shy of New York’s numbers and closing.
Re: Work hours — I was logging on to work as early as 6:45. No more. I refuse to logon before 8:45 and will log off at 5 PM the max. I’m not doing 10 plus hour days.
Anyone have any clue how much the tax receipts are down? There were expecting about $40 billion this year.
latest news release from 4/15 does not show any hit yet.
Treasury: March Revenues Up 3.6%; COVID-19 Impact Likely to Start Materializing Next Month
(TRENTON) – The Department of the Treasury today reported that March revenue collections for the major taxes totaled $1.888 billion, up $66.3 million, or 3.6 percent above last March. Fiscal year-to-date, total collections of $22.398 billion are up $1.3 billion, or 6.2 percent above the same period last year.
https://www.nj.gov/treasury/news/2020/04152020.shtml
Absolutely. Remember the formula was different back then.
grim says:
April 24, 2020 at 6:39 am
Have we exceeded the unemployment rate during the Great Depression? We’ve got to be getting close.
Eddie – break up the day, take a long walk during lunch, go run errands, being sedentary nearby the refrigerator is a recipe for buying a whole new wardrobe of Mumus.
Classis Simpsons.
Homer’s first day at work at Home!
Where is my stupid TAB!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGzkUgTgpa4
News says it is anywhere from 32 million and 70 million, putting the unemployment rate somewhere between 20% and 45%!
IMO any mall based retailer should be presumed to be on deathwatch until proven otherwise.
SX, pretty sure GAP priced $2.25B the other night in a refi with solid demand.
A lot of companies will have to rethink their open office space plans, and even how much NYC real estate they need.
Juice.
Lol. Yes, I do break up the day and I’m regularly interrupted. :) I just don’t like the idea of rolling out of bed and logging on even before the first
the first sip of coffee.
It time to predict recovery folks. AKA “After the Virus”
Does the cruise ship industry come back?
45% of Carnival Cruise passengers with cancelled sailings due chose to take a credit voucher instead of a cash refund. These are the boomers folks. They plan on going on living, when does the sailing start again?
Resurgence in Suburban housing? (we seen the stories already)
Will the desire for family “safety” via yard and fences cause a resurgence in demand for suburban homes with compared to the concrete box urban apartment or condo in a walkable city-center lifestyle we’ve heard so much about?
Will this plague result in a permanent TSA-like system of mandated “health status” screenings at major public events, airports, large convention centers, music concert venues? A quick temp scan and even a spit or gasp a blood sample?
Thoughts for after the Virus?
Juice You can only have a resurgence in suburban housing or just housing in general if people are confident they will have their jobs. There was a story about some NYC couple who paid 25k over asking price in Glen Ridge,they close in June, but could be out of a job by than. And wait until people find out how crowded Bergen Co and the rest of north Jersey is!! I do think NYC real estate particularly Manhattan will take a big hit, but it was already dropping prior to the virus.
I can’t fathom how you don’t break contract in this environment. The market is poised to tank big time. Lots of new homes will have to come onto the market. You either get a discount or a better home by waiting.
Both homes were “under contract” behind me right when the SHTF. They even went through inspection. But they both fell through. I don’t know if they pulled out or if the bank rejected it.
We will all be forced to have weekly UV enemas as we snort powdered disinfectant.
Will the desire for family “safety” via yard and fences cause a resurgence in demand for suburban homes with compared to the concrete box urban apartment or condo in a walkable city-center lifestyle we’ve heard so much about?
Yes, this will definitely accelerate the desire to move away from urban areas. As soon as the kids come along, they were moving north and west of NYC anyway but this virus will push things along. Every third house in my neighborhood has grade school kids. There’s bikes, basketball rims and hockey nets everywhere.
“Given enough hyperinflation, it might become interesting wallpaper.”
Or better yet, toilet paper.
Basically the antibody tests are out. It looks like, statistcally speaking, 1 in 5 New Yorkers were likely infected. This virus travels like lightning. That being said, it seems more and more like the prudent action would have been to have anyone over 60 shelter in place. Anyone with Heart, Blood, or high BMI shelter in place. And let it run through the population. Based on these transmission rates, herd immunity could have been achieved very very quickly. Would have been a lot of casualties either way.
I don’t think having healthy individuals shelter in place after this is the right thing to do. Obviously, those who have grandparents at home, this is a complicated situation but there are no easy answers here.
JCP is done
My only prediction is ALOT of people are going to be walking back their comments about this plague given the data we are seeing versus the economic damage we caused.
And blaming it all on poor data models. Which will lead to lead to a scape goat of China (who honestly does deserve it.)
just remember people. Bodies in the streets people. It was all worth it.
But hopefully I’m wrong.
There are about 49 million age 65 and over in the USA. There is no vaccine and it may never come.
If it blows though that age bracket completely and hits anywhere near the CDC estimated max death rate of 3%-11% among persons aged 65–84 years then we are looking at 1.4 million to 5.4 million deaths.
How about the boomers pay down their debt to society?
They should be testing that age group for the antibodies and line up plenty of convalescent plasma therapy for them from young recovered people. There are already potentially 2 million blood donors in NYC along. $5,000 a pint from a young person seems more reasonably than being intubated and bankrupted.
ATV (after the virus)
Overarching thesis, big picture lens to view ATV….post script this disease will be shown to definitively NOT be the province of under 44 year old, healthy individuals. I don’t need to go into detail on the characteristics of this demographic. For purposes here they grew up in unsettled times, over time got somewhat screwed by events out of their control, and are p1ssed about it.
My thought – somewhat counterintuitive and from observing my dataset of two 20 somethings – is that C19 overlaid with their general outlook will make them double down on their current behaviors, rather than pull back, for several reasons. They feel they have sacrificed enough. C19 is a sick, old persons disease that generally doesn’t affect them and is avoidable. The wedges that always existed in society – old v. young, well v. unhealthy lifestyles, etc – are being thrust to the fore and they land on the good side of the line so they will press it.
Second big picture ATV view, clinically…let’s assume that testing will not ever be able to effectively segregate the healthy from the carriers with certainty and that any vaccine will not be 100% effective. We can debate these points and they will be factually answered in the future. For now, grim over the course of numerous postings several days ago laid out the best argument on testing. Regarding vaccine efficacy, look to current flu (which slightly changes annually and has vaccine manufacturers guessing the correct vaccine composition each season) or the common cold. Regardless, for the sake of argument grant me those assumptions.
What falls out of the above, random thoughts?
Housing. Younger set continues current trends. What do you do with the elderly now that nursing homes are death centers? Small house communities? Age in place? What about second homes, we’ve already seen a trend to off-market (eg, Hudson Valley) locations for cost and travel considerations. Especially after the virus your car and home are the two environments you control with certainty. Do the Poconos come back, they have proximity, less crowds, more experiential, and avoid whatever new layer of airline travel hassle implemented resulting from C19. Is there a lifestyle model with a small ‘anchor’ residence (tiny cheap near urban apartment) and a ‘country’ home? Especially if WFH allows more than a weekend off I can envision something along those lines, three days in an office/small urban apartment and four days in a rural home with land, a stream, and space. Makes the urban apartment effectively a permanent pied-a-terre, there when needed or desired but not really your ‘permanent’ home.
Most interesting to me economically is what C19 may mean politically, ie. the virus may accelerate and amplify political trends that impact the economy more drastically than the its direct impact on business. What do I mean?
It’s an easy call that big box mall retailers, movie theater chains, nursing homes, restaurant chains, airlines, etc, etc are either DOA or need a fundamental restructuring bottoms up.
But what happens if C19 accelerates current political trends and re-arranges that landscape? We’ve already seen a rapid bifurcation of society into Red v Blue broadly along coastal/urban and flyover lines. C19 amplifies those divides. Think of all the real world distinctions C19 brings to the forefront. Most are political flash points.
Columbus OH, Madison WI, and Grand Rapids MI are already more important politically than NYC or Boston. What happens if C19 accelerates the trend toward these cities with a more libertarian mindset among 44 year olds and younger to just live their lives? Or, what happens if C19 pushes these people out of any urban environment and into a ‘traditional’ suburban lifestyle with a more big government “we are all in this together” mindset? Two polar opposites with drastically different outcomes politically but economically.
Which occurs, and to what degree, will have a much larger economic impact than whether AMC and Macy’s can survive without a prepackaged 11 filing. And be much more interesting and harder to discern.
Fast: Perhaps, if they have jobs and feel relatively secure. As far as paying big bucks, I would say that is certainly not a given. This has scared a lot of people.
Dont Mask and drive!
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/northernvalley/police-fire/nj-driver-wearing-n95-mask-passes-out-crashes-due-to-lack-of-oxygen-police-say/787079/
I wear an MSA mask out. The thing gives me the biggest lung workout. I have to make sure to check my heart rate monitor every 2 minutes because some times it feels like I’m not breathing in oxygen. Although, I think I may start wearing one of those elevation training masks to increase Red Blood Cell count.
Today in the Wall Street Journal, Anne Kadet writes about the New York City residents who are moving out, and not coming back:
They’re hardly the only family spurred by the pandemic to make a fast move, said Alison Bernstein, founder and president of Suburban Jungle, a company that specializes in matching city clients with their ideal suburban town, and helped the Usherenkos find their new home. “This whole thing is catastrophic and petrifying for families in urban areas,” she said. “People want out of the city and now.”
Ms. Bernstein said demand for her firm’s services is up 40% from the same period last year. Some are prompted by safety concerns. Others worry the shelter-in-place edict will drag on, confining them to small city apartments.
Carlo Siracusa, president of Residential Sales for N.J.-based Weichert Realtors said while inventory is low due to sellers pulling homes off the market, demand remains high because of a new wave of city dwellers shopping in the suburbs.
“They’ve been confined to a small space the last 45 days and want out,” he said. “There’s a sense of urgency.”
Fab – 500 joules/cm2 of UVC light at 254nm wavelength has been shown to destroy viruses. We are looking for someone with a big enough ahole to volunteer. Are you in?
I think its unfair to put the nursing home issue on Murphy. I put it more on the care home owners. Last time I looked at the numbers we had 4k deaths and of that 1/3 were in care facilities. So 2/3rd were regular at home or hospital. Of the care facilities 1/3 of those were the 3 big VA facilities. When the Nursing homes issue first came to light it was the home owners being questioned on body bag numbers and some with full morgues passing it off as “a bit busier than normal”
NY numbers are interesting. Hospitalizations and deaths are the only certain numbers we can rely on. They have plateaued around 1400-1500 a day. On the other side, we have 2/3rds leaving by the front door and 1/3 out the back. That suggests NY is still has at least 10 days to go. https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/
Sorry Juice,
Just finished my taxes so I need some time to recover from Trumps last A$$ pounding.
I’ll leave it to the Brents of this world to volunteer.
https://www.facebook.com/Brentterhune/videos/3890774107629425/
A Home Buyer,
Not sure it’s about walking back the comments or blame at this point. I still feel this is mainly a temporary economic hit and within time, adjustments in how we go about getting work done will be made to get our economy back on it’s feet. Quite honestly, I’m surprised at how adept private industry has already been. In the negative side, I know of way too many people who are delaying relatively necessary treatments (including my own son) because the hospitals are covid factories. To have just let everyone get sick would have surely overloaded NYC and NJ hospitals which are still above capacity in many places and would have contributed to many more deaths. And with President Clorox at the lead, we still may get to see what will happen when we reopen without the proper preparation.
Though ultimately if there is any model that I think is overblown, it’s the projections of the damage to our economy. For the most part, those $1,200 checks are really helping those who need it. Much of the middle class still has their jobs and we are far from a depression. If NJ’s numbers are holding up decently, then the hit is probably not that bad for the rest of the country.
Grim, you are correct on the nursing home tip. At the home Gator’s mom is in, they were out of hand sanitizer so they gave her mom Clorox wipes for her hands. These facilities were woefully staffed before the virus. Now, they are so short-handed, it’s a tragedy. Every day it gets worse.
Probably the most profound thing I can say about our countries handling of Covid-19 is that if we spent a quarter of the time and energy that we spend trying to blame the other party for fcuking up on finding solutions, we’d probably have this thing worked out by now.
Seriously WTF is up with Trump.
Grim my guesses are BBBY or M
JCP too obvious
Sears/Kmart
“Pay him his money. He beat me for real.”
Lib,
Its still very early to say and I specialize in electricity… Nothing else.
But we walked into this with headlines saying 4% of the us population was not an unreasonable death count.
It went from
4 to 10 million, to
2 million, to
500k, to
120k, to
60k to 120k.
Where this ends I don’t know, and I understand the knowledge needed to advanced. You don’t know what you don’t know.
But if you told the country we had to shut down to save 60,000 old or frail people, I think the reaction would have been very different.
The real indicator is going to be if the total death count of all causes doesn’t change significantly for the year, and if this disease just picked the low hanging fruit.
Cowen’s analysts ranked them like this.
Macy’s has about four months, Kohl’s has six months and J.C. Penney about seven months, Nordstrom can withstand 12 months.
Surprised JCP is in slightly better shape than Macy’s and Target.
Skip Macy’s sorry.
Home buyer. I think your math is off. I still believe this spreads across the entire country regardless of population density. I also think that you are too location biased. If 15 K died in NY and 1 in 5 are infected. Then NY alone should have at least 50k in deaths before this is over. If NY’s got 50k, then what is the number for the rest of the country?
And I’ll return you to the scenario where you think it’s okay to kill your parents? People take second mortgages out in this country to save their 12 year old cats. Be real!
1:25 booooooooooooooooooooom. 12 year-old cats.
You just beeeeeeeen LiiiiibTaaaaaaawwwwddddeddd.
Now sit the fuuuuuck down.
Inject Yooooself.
“[the projected death count] went from 4 to 10 million, to…120k…The real indicator is going to be if the total death count of all causes doesn’t change significantly for the year, and if this disease just picked the low hanging fruit.”
Spot on AHB. Likely we won’t see this analysis any time soon, if ever, but given the heavily weighted mortality rate of the 80+ crowd especially those in nursing homes all C19 did was to pull forward slightly in time deaths that were otherwise imminent.
A more honest number of the real effect of C19 would be to look at the monthly mortality rate for that 80+ cohort 24 months prior to Jan 2020, for all of 2020, and then for the 24 months after.
I suspect the graph would look like an EKG heartbeat….flat, huge spike up, huge drop down below midline, and then back to flat.
Just pulling forward deaths that were going to occur shortly anyway.
Macy’s has more assets, and those assets have retained value. Also, they own potential air rights over real estate that just requires a rezoning. I am not endorsing the debt though!
Juice Box says:
April 24, 2020 at 12:33 pm
Cowen’s analysts ranked them like this.
Macy’s has about four months, Kohl’s has six months and J.C. Penney about seven months, Nordstrom can withstand 12 months.
“And I’ll return you to the scenario where you think it’s okay to kill your parents? People take second mortgages out in this country to save their 12 year old cats. Be real!”
Truly greedy, self centered motherfckers.
What gives a 1/10th of 1% of the population the right to toss 25% of workers out of a job just so the former group can ‘enjoy’ another two years with mom or dad?
Especially since that time with mom or dad is overwhelmingly a couple hour visit a week, or less. Selfish arseholes.
JCP is already in the process….. I could see BBBY maybe, but grim said bigger than Gap
Lib,
What do you mean my math?
The disease currently has a fatality rate of around 3% with 280,000 known cases. Take that now to 2.8 million and your percentage fatality is 0.3%. That’s not all that much different from normal flu.
The other estimates were just numbers provided by the media and revised downwards each time the models have been updated.
What I think really gets us on this disease is it’s highly asymptomatic presentation while still being highly contagious. Generally speaking it doesn’t appear to be significantly more dangerous than flu to most people, but unlike the flu which can reasonably be avoided for most folks, you’re almost certainly to catch this one.
This is all based on the numbers being reported from the blood studies though. who knows how accurate those are.
leftwing,
I had a pro-rate for keeping our dog alive. I made it very clear to the family that this would be followed and reminded them quite regularly of it.
After age five, $1000. Then it’s a sliding scale down $100 per year until death. No matter what. Shame you can’t buy a new parent for $1,000 or get a rescue parent for free when the current one dies.
“Generally speaking it doesn’t appear to be significantly more dangerous than flu to most people…”
Less so, since for the under 24 crowd it is almost a non-event, unlike flu.
Lib, lol.
Enjoy both your dog and your parent while they are young, vibrant, and alive.
We all die.
frustrating as hell market today. might as well draw a bright, double thick line at 2790.
let’s see some downward pressure soon before we get too close to closing.
AHB, nothing personal as you already know, I’m too old to play that game.
Let me do my math a different way.
There are 330,000,000 Americans.
There are 20,000,000 NYers in America. 16K dead and 1/5th the population infected so far. I’ll be nice. Say we only infect 4/5ths of the population before herd immunity saves the rest. That’s 60K dead in New York. 60K is to 20,0000,000 as X is to 310,000,000 or 990,000 thousand dead. Let’s call it one million dead.
Where is my math wrong?
Look at that curve bend while we stay at home. Just wait until we reopen the country.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths?country=USA
Chgo Do you think Macy’s air rights still as valueable?
You’re predicting 1MM deaths when the government’s favorite estimates are 48k-67k-122k?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Libturdulator says:
April 24, 2020 at 2:06 pm
AHB, nothing personal as you already know, I’m too old to play that game.
Let me do my math a different way.
There are 330,000,000 Americans.
There are 20,000,000 NYers in America. 16K dead and 1/5th the population infected so far. I’ll be nice. Say we only infect 4/5ths of the population before herd immunity saves the rest. That’s 60K dead in New York. 60K is to 20,0000,000 as X is to 310,000,000 or 990,000 thousand dead. Let’s call it one million dead.
Where is my math wrong?
Are you looking the total or daily line?
Libturd says:
April 24, 2020 at 2:15 pm
Look at that curve bend while we stay at home. Just wait until we reopen the country.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths?country=USA
Lib,
Never any offense taken!
We’re just chucking numbers at a wall here, but in your analysis you seem to presume all people are equally susceptible to fatality.
I have no data to say that’s not true, but I do think your analysis is a little too simple. As a hypothetical counterpoint, what if the deaths we’ve seen so far are the majority of the people who would likely suffer a fatality in general?
The numbers have shown in generally that relatively healthy individuals should have no real reason to fear this disease including most people under the age of 20. Couple outliers in the 30 to 50 range,and above 60 yeah you got a problem.
Like I said, who knows where this all ends up? As long as the government is providing bread and circuses I think will be okay, until the bill comes due.
We didn’t just flatten the curve, we reduced it. A lot of people that would have caught it are indoors. Going forward when we go out, masks will be a common site when shopping. I wonder how bars and restaurants will fair. We are social animals, but I’m not that keen to sit in a crowded room with people.
When people say flu numbers I think of it this way. Show me a flu season that killed 1000 in the first month and 50K in the second. Where will we be in 4 weeks time? Hopefully less than 25, but we are already starting to see a protest spike.
If you say the number is the same as the flu, does that make the flu vaccine useless?
Yes Joyce. Unless there is a vaccine or some other game changer. Tell me why I’m wrong here?
What am I missing?
Joyce,
Both.
Yes AHB, until the bill comes due. I’ll be down in Costa Rica by then.
It’s not the same as the flu. NY alone has had the same number of covid-19 deaths in 6 weeks as it has had deaths from flu A/B the last three years.
Everyone is counting their chickens, but the egg futures contract has turned negative. :P
What’s the timeline?
Libturd says:
April 24, 2020 at 2:25 pm
Yes Joyce. Unless there is a vaccine or some other game changer. Tell me why I’m wrong here?
What am I missing?
Great, we reduced it. Now all we have to do is keep the lock down in place in perpetuity until a vaccine that might never come is developed.
If you say the number is the same as the flu, does that make the flu vaccine useless?
The next time they predict a bad flu season, does that mean we should suspend international travel and ban immigration?
Fabius Maximus says:
April 24, 2020 at 2:24 pm
We didn’t just flatten the curve, we reduced it. A lot of people that would have caught it are indoors. Going forward when we go out, masks will be a common site when shopping. I wonder how bars and restaurants will fair. We are social animals, but I’m not that keen to sit in a crowded room with people.
When people say flu numbers I think of it this way. Show me a flu season that killed 1000 in the first month and 50K in the second. Where will we be in 4 weeks time? Hopefully less than 25, but we are already starting to see a protest spike.
If you say the number is the same as the flu, does that make the flu vaccine useless?
“This whole thing is catastrophic and petrifying for families in urban areas,” she said. “People want out of the city and now.”
I just tacked another 75K on to my sell price.
Fast I would not assume that.
CDC Estimates:
Year Hospitalizations Deaths
2016-2017 500,000 38,000
2017-2018 810,000 61,000
2019-2020 490,561 34,157
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fdisease%2Fus_flu-related_deaths.htm
Negative rates coming soon to USA. ECB stepping in for Italy before its downgraded to junk,
Trump owes and owes:
https://www.salon.com/2020/04/24/newly-revealed-financial-records-show-trump-owes-millions-to-state-owned-bank-in-china-report/
“…”I beat China all the time,” he said when he announced his presidential campaign in 2015. “I own a big chunk of the Bank of America building [in San Francisco] and 1290 Avenue of the Americas that I got from China in a war. Very valuable. I love China.”
But The New York Times reported in 2016 that Trump only owned 30% of both buildings. And Trump’s financial ties to the country do not end with his ownership stake in the building. Chinese state-owned companies are developing two luxury Trump buildings in Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. The president and his daughter, Ivanka, have also been granted numerous trademarks by the Chinese government since he took office. His son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has sought Chinese investment in at least one real estate deal.
“We actually explored all these foreign enterprises and how once he became president he’d be seen differently by foreign leaders who would have leverage over this president, because he had investments in their countries and/or financial dealings with business enterprises and financial institutions and investors in their countries,” Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., who sits on the House Oversight Committee, told Politico. “He is highly conflicted with respect to China.”
Quest is charging $575 for the antibody testing.
The Trump children make Hunter Biden look like an amateur when it comes to cashing in on their father’s position.
Have the democrats presented their proposal? What is their agenda? What is Biden running on? What’s the platform?
re: Grim donate a pint, claim you had the Wuhan wheeze Red Cross is running the
Ortho Clinical Diagnostic’s COVID-19 Antibody Test.
Unethical? Hey it’s life of death folks.
I will say this Fast Eddie. He’s not suggesting we inject bleach into our bloodstream. In the battle between senility and stupidity, senility wins. Especially when the stupid claims he is the greatest.
In other news of the stupid, the also-brilliant Droptrow Murphy has now made it legal for renters to use their security deposit to pay rent. Does this mean that when something breaks, we can send the bill to Trenton?
The reason for the Clorox becomes clear
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-leader-group-peddling-bleach-cure-lobbied-trump-coronavirus
He loves spending your money
I don’t even think it is legal. I’m pretty sure it’s not under his purvey.
re: inject bleach
As I was doing my daily sociological study of the lazy shopping and lollygagging at the supermarkets of those most at risk for death from the Wuhan Wheeze seniors 65+ I asked the checkout girls about when is the last time they saw bleach in the store. It has been weeks they said and there was the chuckle about Trump and bleach. They went on about injecting bleach would kill you. I of-course agreed and then proceeded to educated them on the hidden truth about bleach. They were amazed that their own bodies produced bleach in white blood cells, they must have slept through or were always high in school.
Anyway before I get drunk tonight I did some research.
Case studies show IV drug users regularly inject small amounts of 5.25% sodium hypochlorite less than 1 ml usually by accident resulting in chest pain and vomiting the usual symptoms I guess when you inject china white and bleach.
It might be worth studying the effects. Perhaps we can get some volunteers? Fab are you game?
Fab great find.
““archbishop” of Genesis II – a Florida-based outfit that claims to be a church but which in fact is the largest producer and distributor of chlorine dioxide bleach as a “miracle cure” in the US”
I guess the WIND OF GOD won’t do..
Here is the Joe Rogan cure for Covid19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIkaCgS6KA0
“re: Grim donate a pint, claim you had the Wuhan wheeze Red Cross is running the
Ortho Clinical Diagnostic’s COVID-19 Antibody Test.”
JB, its interesting because the criteria for donating plasma for the convalescent therapy was having a verifiable positive test result. So if 5x to 10x as many people have coronavirus as were tested positive we are only able to currently get around 10% of possible donors. For something that currently looks pretty promising its unfortunate.
Is Biden even running? So are choices are Lysol Man, and Sleepy Creepy Joe!!
The Cuomo clan likes bleach:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/doctors-warn-against-dangerous-alternative-coronavirus-treatment-ideas-vitamin-drips-clorox-baths-180851538.html
Dink – I do miss those days being a dink…..now I am in the suburban jungle looking for cheap bleach for my pool.
Anywho – tens of millions of tests are in the pipeline, soon as the legislation is paying for it.
It hopefully will all be a lazy summer dream soon.
Anecdotal again – everything is on sale for many businesses, if you need work done on your home now is the time. Just don’t insist on an inspection. Take lots of pictures.
Isn’t an escrow required for a tenant landlord relationship?
This is really really fukced up.
So now I need to go the bank to close the escrow?
And hear this:
“The order also prohibits landlords from asking for another security deposit for at least six months after the end of the emergency or the end of the lease, whichever is later, Platkin said.”
What the fukc?
I warned you he was as dumb as a box of rocks. Now you all get to witness it. I think I’ll cancel my car insurance and go for a drive.
3b – running? he can’t even leave the basement!
They (the party) don’t want to admit it. You think someone like Tulsi is afraid to fly around and campaign?
We have two wheezers to choose from, and both may actually get sick and be sidelined or even die of this.
I cannot see Trump or Biden not get infected if they campaign……
Third Party that is not afraid? Chance of a century for the green party and the millennials, any chance they realize?
Turd -before they realize just capitalize and tack it onto the end of the lease. Be not just a good man but a great man to rent from and toss a month in, are your tenants laid off or furloughed?
It’s not a dream folks..
Enjoy this news video from Europe and have a great weekend. I would say I care for you all, and I really do, Perhaps strange…but he we are strange Americas!
News from Sweden… Trust!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=pzzVxw5FyYs&feature=emb_logo
Juice box
Wonder how that will work out for them and what there rates of comorbidities are. I’m guessing there preexisting condition rate is much lower than the Uk or us. Did you notice how lean everyone was? It was like watching american crowd scenes from the 70s.
Mrs. Cuomo reminds me of my mother, who accidentally killed my grandfather while playing doctor. She thought the solution to his gas pain was a laxitive. Then she ODed him on it. He dehydrated, fell…feeding tube, ventilator at the hospital, then it was a wrap. She’ll never admit that she did that though. Ironically, my father is a doctor that was in the home at the time.
What you don’t understand about Joe Biden is that he’s a winner.
Aiiight. He’s bringing back competency to government. Trump has completely lost his ever loving mind.
Now this: https://people.com/pets/harambe-lives-on-scientists-save-gorillas-sperm-to-continue-blood-line/
Ex Essex I guess you and I have different ideas as to what defines a winner.
Juice Bring Bernie back! With all this chaos he could win! Than again he won’t be able to campaign either.
Bernie is the Ron Paul of the Left.
Bring Ron back, with all this chaos he could win!
I would have voted for Bernie in 2016, this time too, but the DNC went with the bought and paid for Biden.
3b
and the GOP went with Trump, and they are doubling down.
Your call!
1993-Larry King show- a woman believed to be Tara Readers mother calls in to ask Larry about how her daughter had a sexual assault problem with a prominent US Senator.
That call and video jives with Readers story about telling her Mom and her then calling Larry King.
This allegation has legs. #metoo #beleiveallwomen
Fab True but Trump was not a politician, and more than likely not even a Republican. Your serve!
That’s why he didn’t vote for either.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 24, 2020 at 9:28 pm
3b
and the GOP went with Trump, and they are doubling down.
Your call!
Fcuk 100+ (LEGIT – non-pumps/spam) posts in less than a day….. seems like the old days….
Bill Gates conclusion:
we’re all going to die
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation
3b
Yet he is head of the GOP ballot.
I posted back in 2016 that its not the Dems job to nominate a candidate to satisfy moderate GOP disenfranchised voters. If they are disenfranchised, they need to go reclaim their own party instead of trying to cuckoo the Dem nod.
As I said in 2016, you don’t want to vote, that fine. but with that you don’t get to complain about who wins but you get to own what they do when they win. Be that Trump or be that Hillary!
You didn’t vote for Hill in 2016, YOU OWN A PART OF THIS!
Fab I don’t own shite of this. Moderate Democrats? Are you kidding me? The Democratic Party stands for nothing, except looking for divisive BS to divide people. At least the the Sanders/Warren wing have ideas, some radical, but there are valid points there and changes that could be implemented if the will is there and Americans hold their political leaders accountable. Joe Biden represents absolutely nothing. No real
policies, no ideas, just a bought and paid for politician who has been around since the 1970’s!!! This is what the Democrats offer? If these are the choices that the two parties can offer the American people than I refuse! It’s on them not me. Best thing Americans could do this election is stay home.
Joyce,
I’m on page 6 of this Gates doc and this should be hung up beside the Gettysburg Address.
Yes its Technical and there is a lot to unpack. Here is one line to frame today’s discussion on flattening the curve.
“If every infection goes from causing 2.0 cases to only causing 0.7 infections, then after 40 days you have one-sixth as many infections instead of 32 times as many. ”
Layman math is 16 thousand on the 0.7 end and 32 Million on the 2.0 end
3b
Yes you do own it. Again, if you choose not to vote, you get no voice in the complaints about the result. If you get Donnie for the next 4 years you cant complain about it!
In any election if you didn’t vote you get to STFU.
hello. you guys are still here after over 12 years and look smarter now than then. just stop by to say hello. stay safe and healthy!
Vote for A, that doesn’t support my beliefs… I own it.
Don’t vote for B, that doesn’t support my beliefs… I own it.
Tell me more Mr. Science.
“Tell me more Mr. Science.”
Vote for A, that doesn’t support my beliefs…[AND A WON] I own it.
Don’t vote for B, that doesn’t support my beliefs [AND A WON] … I own it.
Is that a bit clearer?
Sure does. So, I vote for B and B wins and supports/enacts policies I don’t approve of… do I own that?
And on the other side and to fill in the gaps.
Vote for A, that doesn’t support my beliefs…[AND B WON] I get to criticize B .
Don’t vote for B, that doesn’t support my beliefs [AND B WON] … I have to own it and STFU, its like not voting or voting for a 3rd party candidate .
Vote for B, that doesn’t support my beliefs [AND A WON] … I get to criticize A
Is that clearer or are there other use cases?
Joyce
Yes you do, and that’s were your choice of which Sh1t Sandwich you have to take a bite of comes in. Will you happily accept Donnie putting kids in cages if it means I don’t get Sharia Law in this county? Pull the handle, if youa Donnie win and get kids in cages, you own it!
Any clearer?
youa = you get a
No Pedants here!
So Apt.
https://twitter.com/smithnoah/status/1253762216651714561
I didn’t vote for McCain or Romney so I guess I own president drone strike. The only thing abundantly clear is your lack of logic.
Hang on. Obama only expanded the drone program from Bush so it’s Bush’s fault. But actually, the overseas intervention and nation building was Clinton’s doing. Well technically, Bush Sr. and Reagan and William Howard Taft and George Washington.
Do I file this under Right Wing Hypocrisy or SBA Abuse?
https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1253685428143697921
Q: Did you ever hook up with biluva?
bi says:
April 24, 2020 at 11:06 pm
hello. you guys are still here after over 12 years and look smarter now than then. just stop by to say hello. stay safe and healthy!
So McCain and/or Romney would have stopped it? Is that the hill you want to fight this on? Wow, you’re reaching!
Prima facile evidence of an individual on the spectrum.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 24, 2020 at 11:32 pm
And on the other side and to fill in the gaps.
Vote for A, that doesn’t support my beliefs…[AND B WON] I get to criticize B .
Don’t vote for B, that doesn’t support my beliefs [AND B WON] … I have to own it and STFU, its like not voting or voting for a 3rd party candidate .
Vote for B, that doesn’t support my beliefs [AND A WON] … I get to criticize A
Is that clearer or are there other use cases?
Exactly, professor. Why would I vote for a [different] candidate that is awful?
Fabius Maximus says:
April 24, 2020 at 11:58 pm
So McCain and/or Romney would have stopped it? Is that the hill you want to fight this on? Wow, you’re reaching!
Got my antibody test appt.
The day the prophets of public finance long foretold has come to pass: Illinois has requested a federal bailout of its struggling public-employee retirement plans, which had unfunded liabilities topping $469 billion in 2018, according to a Federal Reserve study. As difficult as the coron-avirus crisis has been for state governments and their pension systems, Washington shouldn’t bail out Illinois or any other perennial bad actor without first requiring stringent and permanent reforms.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bailout-for-illinois-not-without-strict-conditions-11587765373?emailToken=bc6efbe5e688a5b934dab4321c46dddaRQg8b+Y6jKKC+uy51mfd5lJNt0vqoUTtJ97PeJWjMETOAjeqI+V94W2OEsZb9DHZ62Ux0zgwMNxMr7HyQx0OlOnKRJW5ZJEz47e9NcNXRbOd2m8oYRPU6xraiS8zZXqp&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Markets where affordability was already stretched, like San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego and Seattle, are also at higher risk of price declines. In New York City, home prices had already been tanking, due to oversupply and changes to real estate tax laws that had benefited homeownership. Now the city is the epicenter of the nation’s coronavirus crisis, and values have nowhere to go but down.
While home sales are down dramatically, there are some transactions happening. People who have to buy or sell are still doing so, and some are out hunting for bargains, albeit hunting virtually. Realtor.com just added live open houses to its offerings, so people can talk to an agent in real time as the agent walks through the house. Other brokerages are doing the same.
There will of course be pent-up demand at the end of all of this, but consumer confidence in the economy will play an even bigger role than usual. That is why some disagree with the strength of home prices and see a potential for wide-scale price drops, at least temporarily.
“Uncertainty destroys value,” said Ken Johnson an economist at Florida Atlantic University. “The more uncertainty there is, the more a potential buyer will discount the value of the home.”
https://apple.news/AFcfWIS-SSr6Hx54C4GSUcQ
Remember, price drops are only temporary as uncertainty is only temporary. Aka opportunities are only temporary. Most won’t sell at a loss, so very limited opportunity. Just because the avg price for a home drops, doesn’t mean it reflects the entire market. It only reflects those desperate to sell. Not everyone is desperate to sell at a loss.
It’s like when a stock drops to a certain desperate price. Very little opportunity to buy at such discounts, as there are only so many shares available at said discount. Not everyone is willing to sell at that price.
Pumps, you have zero clue on what is happening in the world… Expect 10% down by Dec and another 15-20% next year.. we are going to 2013 level.
Hope your @wayne highway house will sell for 2012 price…
Pumps, you have zero clue on what is happening in the world… Expect 10% down by Dec and another 15-20% next year.. we are going to 2013 level.
Hope your @wayne highway house will sell for 2012 price…
Fab Your argument makes absolutely no sense. So I have two miserable choices and I
Have to chose one or the other , or I don’t get to complain? I must remain silent!? I don’t know your background, but that to me is just frightening. Perhaps you believe people should be forced to vote. I was a political junkie for years when others were collecting baseball cards I was collecting campaign memorabilia, I have items going back to the time of that weasel Woodrow Wilson. Some of the items quite valuable, but that is another story. I will not take part in the charade that American
National politics has become. I am a conscientious objector. The Americans
People have the power to send a message come Election Day, stay home.
I will vote for the senile corporate hack and will complain just as loudly about his performance as I do currently for King Clorox.
“If every infection goes from causing 2.0 cases to only causing 0.7 infections, then after 40 days you have one-sixth as many infections instead of 32 times as many…
Layman math is 16 thousand on the 0.7 end and 32 Million on the 2.0 end”
Looks like the professor blew some basic layman’s math from your article Joyce.
If 1/6 equals 16,000 then it appears the upper end of 32x is not 32 million, but 3.2 million.
That’s the difference between 10% of the US population v. 1%.
Pool guy knocked on my door early this morning, gave a good price will be here next week to install the heater. American made of-course!
I have never had contractors move so fast, last summer I called 10 different electricians to give me a price to install a 220v line and none even showed up at my door even after booking appointments!
Now is the time folks if you need something done.
Urgent-care in NJ now doing antibody tests.
Brunswick Urgent Care (East Brunswick and Franklin Park)
The Doctor’s Office Urgent Care (Brick, Manalapan, Midland Park, Paramus and West Caldwell)
Excel Urgent Care (Chester and Iselin)
Mountain Lakes Medical Center Urgent Care (Mountain Lakes)
Immediate Care (Brick, East Windsor, Edison, Hazlet, Marlboro, Red Bank and Toms River)
Kinder Pediatric Urgent Care (Union and Totowa) — currently available to its employees, health care workers and first responders; available to the public beginning next week
Medemerge (Green Brook)
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/where-can-i-get-an-antibody-test-in-new-jersey.html
Lib I ain’t voting for either one and I am still going to complain in spite of the fact that some fella here says I am not allowed to!
re: I ain’t voting for either one
You may be right they both may get sick and well not make it to election day.
What is Plan B? We know Pence would take over for the Repubs. For the Dems it has to be that golden gal from Chicago.
Put her in now I say…
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1253697753479331840
3b – a winner is someone with a spouse who loves them, kids who tolerate them and a sweet car or two in the garage. An Everyman perhaps with a big d-ck swinging and the choir starts singing. A winner shows grace and compassion. A winner surrounds themselves with trusted advisors.
Watch and learn.
Seriously – everyone is really tired of watching a mentally ill grifter ‘manage’ America.
Who needs oversight!?!
How big banks decided the futures of America’s small businesses: The inside story of how $349 billion in government cash was doled out in just 12 days, leaving thousands of entrepreneurs without relief
The launch, rollout, and exhaustion of the first round of the Paycheck Protection Program were as high stakes as it was complicated.
Banks had to reconfigure how they worked and contend with antiquated government tech.
Larger customers often got hands-on treatment from bankers, while the smallest businesses had to go through online portals.
A huge backlog has already built up for the next round of PPP, and banks are warning there won’t be enough to go around.
READ MORE
Kim Jun un > Vigoda?
Ex Essex: You must be hitting the bong again.
You didn’t need oversight, you just needed to let them go bankrupt in 2008.
I hear his sister is worse…
2:04 don’t knock it…
Exactly what I was talking about earlier.
“Home Buyers Are Looking for Price Cuts. Realtors Say Sellers Aren’t Budging.
The dissonance between homebuyer and seller expectations is not necessarily surprising.”
https://apple.news/A2Ni2IxEDQoShZrjAlQ1bGw
I wonder if he is dead…and I heard the same thing…sister is pure evil.
Living through some crazy times.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/clifton/2020/04/22/twin-sisters-clifton-nj-both-get-five-ivy-league-acceptances/3003445001/
UVA light being tested on covid19 patients?
https://vimeo.com/411630782
https://twitter.com/BioscienceAytu
Juicer need to huff some Lysol….
What’ve you got to lose?
pumps, don’t pimp clifton.. Its a dump
Now that UV light is the topic of the day, I foresee a run on germicidal lamps. I’m installing this into a grow tent to hit newly purchase packages from all angles with UVC light.
https://www.bulbs.com/product/TUV25T8-G25T8
Testament to nj education system…that a school system like Clifton can consistently pump out Ivy League grads. Can get a good education anywhere in nj.
“A pattern at Clifton
Clifton High school is no stranger to having multiple students accepted to Ivy League schools.
Despite having a high number of students who come from disadvantaged families, in 2018 seven students were accepted by Ivy League schools, and three attended Harvard.”
the trend is all ivies and equivalent are accepting more first generation college students. this is is from 15% to 20% for each school. with 98% graduation rates at Harvard, the academic does not matter any more.
Yes, first generation college students are some of the most ambitious individuals out there. Have to overcome a lot to break the trends of a family that has never gone to college. To make it to the Ivy league under these conditions, well, that’s tough.
Can Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Handle the Coronavirus Mortgage Crunch?
https://apple.news/A6b5OWjzzNkuWlNg8mcBD3A
This has to be worst than the Great Depression. Dominoes just keep falling in the economy. I hope these lives being saved by the quarantine do something meaningful with their second chance. A lot of people will suffer for their second chance..
“’There Are Going to Be Layoffs.’ State and Local Governments Brace for Cuts as Budget Crisis Looms”
“Caught in the mix are the teachers and bus drivers, bureaucrats and police officers who make up the spine of the nation’s day-to-day life. In Honolulu, the Governor has proposed a 20% pay cut to public sector workers, including teachers. Los Angeles is requiring city employees to take 26 days — five weeks — of unpaid leave to help offset shriveling tax revenue. In Detroit, there’s talk of furloughing thousands of workers to patch a budget hole. Pennsylvania is telling employees like highway workers who can’t telework to use up vacation and sick leave to keep their checks coming.”
https://apple.news/AhY8r8_pPTDaVWnx4FDjYJw