From the WSJ:
U.S. Home-Price Growth Rose to Record in April
U.S. home prices surged at their fastest pace ever in April as buyers competing for a limited number of homes on the market pushed the booming housing market to new records.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 14.6% in the year that ended in April, up from an 13.3% annual rate the prior month. April marked the highest annual rate of price growth since the index began in 1987.
Home prices have surged this year due to low mortgage-interest rates, which have spurred strong demand, and a continued shortage of homes for sale. Many homes are getting multiple offers and selling above asking price. The home-price surge is widespread around the U.S., affecting buyers and sellers in big cities, suburbs and small towns.
The median existing-home sales price in May rose almost 24% from a year earlier, topping $350,000 for the first time, the National Association of Realtors said earlier this month.
From CNN:
Housing demand is about to weaken. Here’s why
Who would have thought that when the pandemic struck last spring that single-family housing would go on such a stellar run? Not me. But housing has been on a tear. Home sales, homebuilding and especially house prices have surged.
Despite being overvalued, there is no sign the housing market is in a bubble. (A bubble develops when there is speculation, or when buyers purchase homes with the sole intent of selling quickly for a profit, which isn’t happening today.) But stress lines are beginning to appear, and the housing market is set to cool off.
The increase in home prices is stunning. Nationwide, house prices are up double digits over the past year, and this comes after a decade of solid price gains since the housing market bottomed in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Indeed, the median existing home price — half of homes sold for more and half for less — is closing in on $350,000, almost double what it was a decade ago.
Think about the return you would have earned if you had the gumption to buy the median-priced home at the bottom of the market after the financial crisis, say with a typical 20% down payment. It comes to an approximately 560% return.
There simply aren’t enough new homes right now to meet demand, and the vacancy rate for homes for sale has never been lower. Homebuilders have been slow to put up more homes, especially at lower price points, given more restrictive zoning since the financial crisis, and much higher labor and material costs recently.
first
A friend of mine who purchased a house in the Montclair section of Clifton around 2008 for six and change which I thought was still in that bubble range at the time. He’s thinking of putting it out there with close to a seven digit asking price just for ha ha’s. I said the other day the one thing I finally learned about house pricing is that if it doesn’t make you cringe with embarrassment, you didn’t price it high enough. Think like a pig and that’s your price point.
Surprise, surprise! Looks like we have another sham election on our hands — this one in NYC. I guess the Dems didn’t like the idea of their mayoral candidate being a relatively mainstream ex-cop, so they’re going to find a way to give the nomination to an incompetent party hack.
What happens first, civil war or we actually become Venezuela?
And in further news, yet another democrat-run city is in shambles because we need to walk on egg shells around the burn, loot and murder crowd:
Citing spike in crime, affluent Atlanta district looks to secede from city: ‘It’s a war zone’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/citing-spike-in-crime-affluent-atlanta-district-looks-to-secede-from-city-its-a-war-zone-211029967.html
SmallGovConservative,
The NYC BOE i asking everyone to be patient as they sort it out.
Translation: We’ll fix it so that your vote means nothing as we “elect” the candidate of “our” choice.
Another really hot day, heat index expected to reach 107 degrees. I am keeping my youngest home today from camp, between sunburn and getting sick again on the bus from their trip yesterday etc he has had a tough week.
On housing front friend just relocated for work to NJ, they chose a modest home in a Middlesex county, secluded home but close to Princeton. I would say they will stay in NJ until their kids are done with High School as they have moved many times already. I was pushing for High Technology High School (NJ) here in Monmouth county (if you can get in) which is #1 in the country for a STEM school but they want their kids who are Asian to go to Princeton HS.
Wow, most cars I’ve seen at the Wayne park and ride in a year.
“bubble develops when there is speculation”
Was there speculation in mid 80s? Were there 1 year ARMS? NINJA loans? Nope. Seems like people paying 14% interest in 1984 suddenly jumped hard at 9-10% rates in 1986-1987. That ended very badly in 1989 and took a a dozen years to recover. This will end same but much, much worse. There is no where to go. Rates can’t be used to stoke market.
SGC,
You can read more, but it’s the metabolic issues caused by visceral fat that make it so nasty.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/abdominal-fat-and-what-to-do-about-it
Phoenix,
Common sense and no surprise in that link. I can’t understand how people reach a level where tent-like garb is their only alternative.
“So I say relax and enjoy the show. You have to be a realist; you have to be realistic about terrorism. Certain groups of people… certain groups – Muslim fundamentalists, Christian fundamentalists, Jewish fundamentalists, and just plain guys from Montana – are gonna continue to make life in this country very interesting for a long, long time.
That’s the reality; angry men in combat fatigues talking to God on a two-way radio and muttering incoherent slogans about freedom are eventually going to provide us with a great deal of entertainment, especially after your stupid f in g economy collapses all around you and the terrorists come out of the woodwork and you’ll have anthrax in your water supply, and saran gas in your air conditioner, there’ll be chemical and biological suitcase bombs in every city and I say “enjoy it, relax, enjoy the show, take a f ing chance, put a little fun in your life.” To me, terrorism is exciting, it’s exciting. I think the very idea that you could set off a bomb in a marketplace and kill several hundred people is exciting and stimulating and I see it as a form of entertainment! Entertainment… that’s all it is.
Yeah… but I also know that most Americans are soft and frightened and unimaginative and they don’t realize there’s such a thing as dangerous fun. And they certainly don’t recognize a good show when they see one.”
Eddie,
I deal with people in situations where they are very vulnerable. Had a patient about a year ago, nice guy, works so many hours. Family member asks him for a favor, just tries to put one more thing in his day. Fell asleep at the wheel and crashed. Trying to do right for his family. Gonna pay every day for that mistake.
That’s one of the problems of America I see in my line of work, is that it’s like one of those kid powered merry-go-rounds where you go on it and some nasty neighbor kids spin it until you fall off and break your leg, back, or neck. It’s all for nothing.
Repost of mine from late last night. It’s where we are headed:
America.
Having trouble making an airplane that flies. Keep outsourcing your engineers for profit and this is what you get. A management culture that knew the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
This is what happens when you let accountants design an airplane.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-777x-realistically-will-not-win-certification-approval-before-mid-2023-us-2021-06-27/
re: Wow
My neighbor reported the ferry was packed, but their are 1/2 as many ferries.
Ridership #’s tell the story.
NYC subway
Monday, 6/28/21 2,253,430 -56.8% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
NYC BUS
Monday, 6/28/21 1,045,056 -49% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
LIRR
Monday, 6/28/21 122,300 -58% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
Metro-North Railroad
Monday, 6/28/21 101,500 -62% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
We can assume NJ Transit #’s are about the same.
Don’t forget this is major vacation/tourist week. I would not take any of these extra travelers as a sign of anything.
Visceral fat is racist.
Left: nothing like being on the Suspension Bridge and seeing in big block letters Young ACAB spray painted on the gorge bed rock formation.
I walked past Ithaca Falls to Rockledge past Sagan’s house over to Risley then to Statler down the Slope and through the Archways by the UHauls at 3PM yesterday. When I got back to my car at Lake Street the fcuking dash temp said 110.
I can’t understand how people reach a level where tent-like garb is their only alternative.
They stop caring. About everything. Abuse will do that to you. Parents who choose to love one child, but not the other.
The most dangerous person you will ever meet is the one who has nothing to lose, or that “perceives” their life this way. They may just jump off a building, step in front of a train, or maybe they will just run you over with their car or stab you for five dollars.
Every day can be your last. Now enjoy that donut. With your triple latte and extra cream. Unless you have too much visceral fat. And avoid this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZylFFKdnjM
Juice: The train parking lot in my town has 3 to 5 cars a day. Some days none. A lot of people I know are not gonna my back to the office until after Labor Day. Many of their companies are formulating the hybrid work arrangements. From
what they understand at this point for many it will be 3 days at home, 2 in the office. One I know is 4 at home one day in the office, and another is completely remote.
Well Chi,
I don’t believe in ACAB, but I do believe that SCAB.
And the only one that matters is the one you deal with.
It’s like telling a patient with cancer that most cancers of that type are curable when the one they happened to get has metastasized and is fatal. They don’t want to hear about the good one, or the good type, or even that most are good.
It’s too late for that.
House votes to REMOVE all Confederate statues from Congress and replace a bust of Chief Justice Roger Taney with Thurgood Marshall – despite opposition from 120 Republicans
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9740611/House-votes-REMOVE-bust-Chief-Justice-Robert-Taney-Confederate-President-Jefferson-Davis.html
It’s already 87 F here…..Gonna be a hot one for sure, my Pool is reading 85 F , and my hot tub which I have not turned on since last week is reading 100F.
I hope the power does not go out do to the strain on the grid, about 92% of the electricity generated is local natural gas and nuke power but the rest comes from out of state via PJM Interconnection…
Go to the beach. The water was ice cold and the temperature was about 15 degrees less near the water.
In the past I have done roofing, framing, siding, tree removal, seal coating, auto repair, tin knocking in attics, and eschar flenzing in these temperatures.
You get used to it. Or no paycheck.
Don’t forget this is major vacation/tourist week. I would not take any of these extra travelers as a sign of anything.
New Jersey I-195 has consistently been about 1/3 out of state plates for a while. Mostly NY/PA but every other state is mixed in. They have completely changed the dynamic of that road because it’s only 2 lanes and none of them quite understand how to drive in NJ.
Spelling mistake, sorry. Eschar flensing.
BRT,
So true. Sometimes the ratio seems even higher. Those from NY don’t even see the lanes on the right at all as if they don’t exist until they have to get off an exit.
80E to 287S is always a winner, especially with shore traffic. Drivers practically stop in the fast lane to cut to the right and avoid the line in the slow lane.
I must be living in NJ too long, but NY drivers are absolutely awful, and arrogant too.
Phoenix – Those were the days, trim, tan and even a six pack working outdoors during the summer in high school and college. I did all kinds of landscape construction up in Bergen County in the wealthier towns up Rt 17.
I built a pressure treated noise barrier aka wall on Rt 17 north. The state had just built concrete block noise barriers, but left a a 200 ft gap in it for some reason and the homeowners were pissed, so they hired us to close the gap. We built this 30 years ago by hand. I am not even sure it was legally permitted. We spent weeks out there digging the fence post holes by hand and pouring the concrete.
It still looks to be in decent shape, after all this time.
Here is a link to google maps.
https://www.google.com/maps/@41.0055954,-74.1023913,3a,75y,34.56h,89.48t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sHTJp0YRv2qgNSbpy0V_kQA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
We’ve been wearing hoodies at the beach this past week. Strong cool south wind.
3b,
That’s why NJ does not allow you to carry. Could you imagine the carnage?
Although there is a direct uptick in it anyway. The heat angers the ants.
3b,
In Stamford, to get to train station from my building, you have to cross on-ramp to 95. The on-ramp turning lane would get backed up for at least 1/4 mile during rush. Some cars would speed down left lane pretending to go straight then jam right and try to bully way onto on-ramp. I would be crossing at some of those times and nearly killed. 9/10 they had NY plates..I kept track mentally. They are absolute a-holes but NJ is close second. CT is la-la land. More clueless than dangerous.
3b – Ultimatum came from up at the partner level of your old firm, five days starting next week. Lots of people leaving….
“I am not even sure it was legally permitted.”
Cutting CCA without a mask back in the day, or even creosote, while teachers struggle in climate controlled buildings carrying a pocketbook and notebook. I have so much sympathy for them. At least they get to rest all summer in order to build the strength they need in order to hold that pen come September.
There is a reason that women live ten years longer than men, besides the one that is part of “the joke.”
Juice: Not surprised, the head of GS hates WFH, he has made it clear. And not surprised many are leaving. The millennials are a different breed, they are not afraid to
speak up and or leave if need be. It will be interesting to see if GS modifies it’s opposition to WFH over the next few months.
Bystander: It’s that arrogance from NY drivers, and then the look they give you. Agree on CT drivers, it’s like they are day dreaming when they drive. I do like the Merritt Pkwy, though, it’s a nice drive.
3B – More on the return to work mentality as well. I could see many of the partners who are middle aged and many divorced actually missing the faux camaraderie of late dinners in NYC, and really the NYC social life aspect driven by work on wall st that so many use as a crutch for their own personal failings. It is not going to end well..
3b,
And Gen Z is on a whole different level. I really enjoy working with them. Trained a whole group, so, so much better than working with the “Karens.”
It still looks to be in decent shape, after all this time.
Shit you not I drove past that the other day and was thinking, who the hell built this thing – it’s clearly the wall that doesn’t belong. It is falling apart though.
The Jack Rabbit drivers seem to be more bold. More weaving and lane cutting that I have seen in a long while on the Turnpike and Parkway. I blame Vin Diesel and the fast franchise….
Don’t forget this is major vacation/tourist week. I would not take any of these extra travelers as a sign of anything.
I was surprised, as I drive by at least once every two or three days, and I regularly glance over. Was just under about half full at 9.
Juice: I would agree on that. When I was there back in the day there were partners who
Wanted to go out all the time, nothing to go home to , I don’t know. For others it got to be a pain in the ass, there were weeks I was out every night of the week it was exhausting. GS will have to come around in some fashion to
WFH, they may be dragged kicking and screaming, but they will come around.
Did workers win the battle for wages? Why would they win this one? A business is always going to seek what makes it the most competitive and efficient. You can’t replace what bringing people together in person does for a company.
If you were a business, would you want to make your life more difficult by having these crazy schedules that the worker decides? Hell no. I want my team there whenever the hell I need them. I don’t care if they can do the job at home. When they are at home, are they available at a drop of a dime if I need them? Nope. Are they building work culture at home? Nope. They are focusing on other bs while completing said task. If you are working for my company, I want you focused on my company, and not your life at home.
Juice Box says:
June 30, 2021 at 10:14 am
3b – Ultimatum came from up at the partner level of your old firm, five days starting next week. Lots of people leaving
I’ll have to look for that wall when I am up that way. Wonder why the state skipped that one area- strange. I could see why the homeowner wanted it.
Looks like it was a quality job. Nice work.
Now go get those six pack abs again and a matching Vette to boot.
Phoenix I like the Millennials and Gen Z folks, they might be a little clueless in some respects, but they are a breath of fresh air from the self absorbed boomers.
I’ve noticed the NYC plates in Princeton bring their NYC driving mentality there. Like when you go to parallel park and put on your blinker they think it’s their duty to hit the gas from 200 ft away and pass you on the left at 40 mph.
Other things I’m noticing on the highway. From the entrance ramp, they will immediately swerve into the left lane despite the people doing 75 in the left and take a good minute to build up speed.
The people from Virginia (and there are a lot for some reason) will drive 65 in the left lane for 30 straight miles. And I get it. If you are in Virginia, the entire state drives 65, all 3 or 4 lanes. It’s actually quite a nice experience when you are out there because no one pulls any nonsense. But that’s not how it’s done in NJ.
I pass by once or twice a week, and it’s been growing by the week since the start of June.
grim says:
June 30, 2021 at 10:38 am
Don’t forget this is major vacation/tourist week. I would not take any of these extra travelers as a sign of anything.
I was surprised, as I drive by at least once every two or three days, and I regularly glance over. Was just under about half full at 9.
I’d rather the racers than to sit in traffic. I’ve already logged 2 accidents on my dash cam.
I’d suggest to all of you to get one. You don’t know you need it until you do.
Ha well know you know the story Grim…..We were paid back then $11 an hour on the books. Great money at the time, this is well before the invasion of cheap labor from south of the border. The small landscape business I worked for is still kicking too after all these years out of Ramsey NJ. I may have to lookup the owner, he would be in his 70s now.
And once again the one with absolutely zero corporate work experience rides into the blog full gallop to address business and WFH. I mean who else would know better.
NYC election error found. We accidentally included a trial run, which somehow favored the loser overwhelmingly.
Yes, they are going to learn quickly that they don’t get to tell the boss what to do.
Businesses have been cautious with their approach to forcing people back because it was a pandemic and didn’t want negative press, but don’t think for a second they are going to keep this nice boss talk for too long.
3b says:
June 30, 2021 at 10:26 am
Juice: Not surprised, the head of GS hates WFH, he has made it clear. And not surprised many are leaving. The millennials are a different breed, they are not afraid to
speak up and or leave if need be. It will be interesting to see if GS modifies it’s opposition to WFH over the next few months.
Lmao
BRT says:
June 30, 2021 at 10:45 am
NYC election error found. We accidentally included a trial run, which somehow favored the loser overwhelmingly
Pumps – Comp is part of the equation, but so is work/life balance mainly for women. The child care issue is a huge problem when you are stuck in NYC till 10 PM. The men want it back to the way it used to be, perhaps so they can chase skirts at late night functions, it has zero to do with work other than perhaps some mentoring being missed out by the younger new hires etc.
As I mentioned to the uninitiated (you) and that can be backed up by other’s I suspect it’s ONLY the social aspect they miss THE MOST and has little to NOTHING to do with productivity of a team.
Took a look again on my drive back.
Vast majority of cars are in the daily spots, not the monthly.
While that points to tourist traffic, it’s a god damn abysmal day to take mass transit to go walking through NYC, and most folks I knowingly abandoned their monthly spots (there was always a waiting list). I don’t know that it makes any sense to pay for a monthly pass if you are working a hybrid schedule. We might see the a good portion of monthly spots painted to daily.
Juice,
How did this team learn to work so efficiently remotely? That’s right…it was built years upon years in person. You and all the other advocates totally miss the most important part. This is why GS boss says get back to work in person. He cares more about the company than what is good for the worker.
You know what would be good for a low wage worker…insurance and higher wages. You think the company is going to do what is good for this worker? No, it will take down the company long term. Same exact thing with wfh. Good for the worker, bad for the business.
“135,000 ballot images it had put into its computer system for testing purposes had never been cleared.” All for one candidate Garica too?
I am surprised those “test” votes weren’t for Deblasio’s candidate Maya Wiley.
So much for transparency, they should have released all machine count votes right away and added in the absentee later. Anyone can easily see the rank choices bla bla bla…
Plus, WFH will lead to class warfare. You think the lower class is going to want to go to work in person when people getting paid six figures are working from home? You want to talk about resentment? I just don’t see this trend going long term.
Pumps – you fail to see there is a war for talent….Headhunters are really busy now poaching the best.
Yes, and it will come to an end.
So which is it? Is it the labor market described by Bystander, or is it a market paying up?
The “Great Resignation” is absolutely real.
Employers that treated staff poorly through covid are going to see a massive out-migration. Leaders are busy poaching talent right now.
If the labor market is paying up. What’s the problem with the housing pricing?
BRT, I don’t see a lot of people driving 65 on I81, except maybe through a construction zone. Driving south I generally prefer the I81 route over the I95 route, other than frustrations about the two lane sections where trucks or slow passers clog up the passing lane. Last time I drove on I95 a bastard truck full of rocks and a poor cover tie-down let a rock chip my wife’s front window (I was in the next lane over and wasn’t particularly close behind it) which ended up costing roughly $2000 to replace it at the Audi dealer because I already know from past experience that Safelite does a crap job with non-exact glass copies, imprecise settings, and screwing up ADAS equipment alignment.
Juice: Don t waste your time.
New windshield for my Ascent was $1000 bucks, which is a dealer only job as they need to recalibrate the eyesight cameras.
If the labor market is paying up. What’s the problem with the housing pricing?
3b says:
June 30, 2021 at 11:09 am
Juice: Don t waste your time
High of 85 in Longboat Key, FL today, though it will rain this afternoon, knocking the temp down to 80 but ruling out golf. The ocean is a temperature change dampener, giving the climate higher lows and lower highs compared to inland.
People mostly do their tennis and golf in the morning around here.
Big investors like SoftBank bet the construction startup Katerra was going to reshape the building industry. By cutting out middlemen, mass producing prefabricated parts, and putting contractors, architects and software developers all on under one company, Katerra would streamline the building process, making projects both cheaper and faster.
Then it declared bankruptcy. Former employees told reporters Eliot Brown and Konrad Putzier that Katerra never quite figured out how to turn its biggest ideas into profits. Losses on projects piled up. “Everyone’s so excited about the mission that everybody just says yes to everything,” recalled Erica Storck, one of the company’s first employees. “It gets out of control.”
Grocery-anchored shopping centers may sound less exciting than revolutionizing construction, but that’s alright by some investors. Investment company BentallGreenOak has decided to put 10 of its retail properties on the market because of the strong interest from potential buyers, reports Esther Fung. The properties could sell for as much or more than they would have before the pandemic, according to people familiar with the matter.
And new rental apartments are getting noticeably larger in more than one-third of US cities, Sami Sparber reports. Older millennials who have reached homebuying age, but who are unable to find a home they can afford, are a key market for these bigger units.
You might assume that Wall Street boss James Gorman and falafel-maker David Shadaha don’t have much in common. But after months of remote work, they share a goal: to get bankers back into their New York buildings.
With a few exceptions, major Wall Street banks are already moving to resume office work as long as workers are vaccinated. Gorman, who is Morgan Stanley’s chairman and CEO, expects most of his staff to be back by Labor Day.
“I’ll be very disappointed if people haven’t found their way into the office,” Gorman said in a video posted by Morgan Stanley. “And then we’ll have a different conversation.”
https://www.npr.org/2021/06/29/1010360781/wall-street-bosses-wants-their-workers-back-thats-good-for-the-king-of-falafel?mod=djemRealEstate_h
House prices are at an all-time high, but we’re not in a real estate bubble — we’re in a pricing paradigm shift.
The old paradigm: A house’s price was the maximum amount that the area’s average buyer can afford to mortgage over 25–40 years. But because wages have flatlined and purchasing parity is the same as in 1978, the only rational explanation for this current price explosion is a giant debt bubble… right?
Wrong.
The new paradigm: A house’s value is now the maximum amount of annual rent that can be extracted from it by a global investor, multiplied by maximal institutional leverage.
Read those two paradigms again. It’s the biggest paradigm shift in the history of human shelter, and it’s the reason why the average house could cost $10+ million within 50 years. It’s the reason why the vast majority of Americans will never own a home in the future.
Because your family home is now just a future hedge fund investment.
The $10 million house
“Airbnb-type models altered the market irreversibly by proving on a large scale that short term rentals were more lucrative than stable long-term residents.”
— Valerie Kittell
Sure, we’ll still see temporary price drops, but expect overall prices to continue hard up-and-to-the-right for nine major reasons:
https://medium.com/surviving-tomorrow/in-50-years-the-average-house-will-cost-10-million-88b765272e75
…and it’s the reason why the average house could cost $10+ million within 50 years.
I’m going to get a carton of Pall Mall Reds and smoke up a storm before I have an open house. My current price is $995,000. I’ll accept the best and highest at the end of the day. And you better feed the chipmunks as specified in the contract.
Low interest rates and fear are driving the housing bubble. Period.
Wouldn’t mind flying down to the keys for the weekend
I just don’t think we are in a bubble…think these prices are here to stay. I don’t know if you are going to see rapid rises like this year, but doubt you ever see prices from 2019 ever again. Higher lows and higher highs.
Like the article I shared, there are new factors impacting real estate prices. Aka it will never be cheap again as investors will always jump in now. Lots of hungry investors that want to protect their wealth through real estate. Lots of hungry investors looking for passive income through rent. They have no intention of ever selling, just collecting rent. If they sell, it’s to leverage to a bigger property.
One of my all time favorite adventures: A house tour guide telling me to take out a 2nd mortgage to buy another house but to not disclose my true intentions. “Tell the bank it’s to redo the kitchen or something” as she woofed done another cookie from the open house tray.
That’s why you can’t measure housing price by income in said location anymore. You never had single family homes treated as an investment. Now you do. They are buying them up, by shaking normal people out of the market, and then renting to said people that they eliminate.
Some companies are doing interesting things related to WFH. I know one that is planning on closing one of their two Manhattan offices. To gauge interest in returning to work, people may volunteer to return to the office over the next two months, but must arrange it with a facilities manager. Come September, they will measure the results and will design the workplace around it. Those who benefit little from direct contact with coworkers have been asked to stay at home. Lots of interesting rules around mask wearing and inoculation as well. If you chose to go maskless, you MUST provide proof of vaccination. Don’t like it? Quit. Was told the Dallas office was up in arms about this.
Other companies that I have friends who have shared their situations is a complete mix from everyone back to noone back. The next year will be very interesting.
A British coworker of mine said the Delta variant is only to be worried about if you are a moron and too stupid to get the vaccine. Though a few people vaccinated have gotten it, not one that he knows of has been hospitalized from it. Those unvaccinated are really getting hit hard by this strain. Masks may go back on for all, sadly, to protect the stupid.
Lib: Seeing the same on my end. It will certainly be an interesting year; it’s going to be a different work world.
Almost certainly it’ll happen.9
We aren’t in a bubble. We are in a monetary fantasy.
In other news
ments
Taking to TikTok, the 29-year-old showed fans a 30A cup bra she had worn in the show, trying on the skimpy garment before revealing she is now a ‘healthy’ 34B
She also claimed she was turned away for the show the following year by Edward Razek, the former Chief Marketing Officer for L Brands
‘He said my body did not look good enough,’ she said, revealing that her cup size in 2017 had increased to a healthier 30B
Razek quit his role in 2019, days after Victoria’s Secret hired its first transgender model, having previously said ‘transsexual’ stars should not be cast in the show
Bridget also accused Victoria’s Secret of ‘performative allyship’ after the brand announced it was replacing its Angels with ‘diverse spokeswomen’
She branded the move ‘a joke’, suggesting that it has only been made as to try and boost the brand’s reputation, and said that it has come ‘too little, too late’
The ‘Angels’ have been replaced by a ‘culturally relevant’ group of seven women who will form the ‘VS Collective’ and its show has been axed in favor of a podcast.
I can say this about job market – the ex-coworkers on LinkedIn who post new job are clearly leaving banking sector for small startups. There are tons and tons of companies trying to get into intercompany billing, payment processing, invoicing, data archiving markets and promising full AI / Cloud models. One went to Smarsh other day and another to Sorcero. Never heard of them. We are in tech bubble 2.0 ala 1999. So many venture capitalists/idealisists leveraging cheap debt, payign themselves handsomely and promising the world. Monetary fantasy is right. This will end badly. The market for banking sector is a joke – clear desperation as turnover killing them but they want pay on their cheap terms. I deal with recruiters quite a bit. They all want to have phone call but I simply ask to send if contract or FT along with salary. They will do everything to mask that it is big bank with low-ball rate. I had one asking for hands on tech manager to be part of cutting edge Crypto blockchain custody program. I knew it was BNY and told her my salary. She balked of course. What does BNY think they will get for 140K in NYC? An expert tech person to live like a pauper and realize their dreams? F-em all.
Bystander BNY is notorious for offering low salaries across the firm.
Bystander,
Perhaps it has something to do with this:
The Bull Market for Crap
While I doubt we’re at a breaking point just yet, there’s been a disturbing trend of a lot of terrible companies turning to the public market to raise tons of cash. I suppose that’s how markets are designed to work, but it’s a little unsettling that’s so many unsound companies can effortlessly rake in so much from investors.
Bloomberg notes that since March, almost 100 money-losing companies have raised money via secondary offerings. That’s twice the number of profitable companies.
According to Sundial Research, over the past 12 months, 750 unprofitable companies have turned to the secondary market. That’s the widest margin between money-making and money-losing firms in nearly 40 years.
There may be a few factors driving this phenomenon. For one, the higher-quality companies may already be flush with cash thanks to a strong market, a recovering economy and low interest rates. As the pandemic broke, many companies were quick to raise cash so they had enough protection to ride out the storm. Now that rates are still low, it’s probably not worth it to pay off those credit lines. That could be leading to a wave of buyouts.
Also, the booming market for lower-quality stocks adds extra incentive for these companies to raise money. That’s just natural supply and demand. I can’t blame low-quality companies for taking advantage of a good market for them. Several of the meme stocks already have raised money.
This isn’t just happening in the stock market. Junk bonds are now yielding just over 4%. That’s an all-time low. In fact, the spread between junk debt and investment-grade is the narrowest it’s been in over a decade. Crap is in, and the crappier the better.
Here’s a long term chart of junk bonds. Sorry, I mean “high yield” bonds.
Banks may take it on the chin from the DeFi and Fintech startups, simply
because the incumbent banks have no reason to fundamentally change. There are many many startups pledging to reinvent the banking process, tens of thousands of them that it’s hard to keep up, and everyone now uses AI,ML and DL to improve services, product and customer experience.
I remember when banking was threatened by Walmart, way back when they announced they were going down the path of becoming a one stop shop for banking and retail. That quickly died with the outright threats from Congress of legislation to prevent it. It seems logical that a few of these tens of thousands of startups may actually disrupt the old school banks. Maybe in the lending space like Mortgages. TOMO is a new one formed by the ex-Zillow folks amongst others. There are even WOKE startups going for the retail and small business deposits..
https://therealdeal.com/2021/06/30/tomo-digital-mortgage-startup-enters-texas-washington-markets/
I use Novo and it’s great!
Bill Cosby’s Conviction For Sexual Assault Is Overturned By A Pennsylvania Court
https://apple.news/Afg728pwHQ6-xbqPscYIDyw
Grim,
there was a class action on Ascent windshields as somanyof them cracked. info may be available at Subaru Ascent Forums
“In the next 10 years, we should have A.I. do better than humans in translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school-level essays (by 2026), writing top 40 songs (by 2028) and driving trucks. And while the consensus may be that driving trucks may come by 2027, it’s easy to predict that this could happen even sooner, with top tech entrepreneurs like Elon Musk constantly pushing the envelope and promising these innovations earlier.
A chore that would take less time – folding laundry should be a breeze for A.I. by 2022. Other tasks might take longer, but still within the foreseeable future. It’s likely you’ll be around for these. We should get A.I.-driven machines in retail by 2031. By 2049, A.I. should be writing New York Times bestsellers and performing surgeries by 2053.”
https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/heres-when-machines-will-take-your-job-predict-ai-gurus
“As MIT Technology Review points out, these predictions have a way of coming earlier. A.I. wasn’t supposed to beat humans at the game of Go until 2027 and that happened back in 2015. In fact, it took Google’s DeepMind just two years to come up with the necessary tech, instead of the 12 that was predicted.
On the other hand, as 40 years is an average person’s working life, predictions that extend past that might be unreliable as they are based on technology in which the experts might not have enough practical knowledge.
Interestingly, there is a difference in how experts from different parts of the world view the future. Asian researchers put the A.I. takeover in just 30 years, while their North American counterparts see that happening in about 74 years. Full automation of labor is expected in under 125 years.”
Lib,
I think late Sept is going to be unreal. I anticipate dumping of lots of summer jobs. Management who waffled with hiring will be forced into tough situation as they only have one qtr to deliver and falling behind hiring will bleed into 2022 plans. WFH strong handededness will give way to “any able body”. Fed will talk about tapering but defer. Everyone is trying to enjoy summer after COVID but reality is on horizon. No one wants to see it. We are playing games right now..and most of them are chicken.
Eff work. It’s over rated.
Just go on welfare, Social Security disability, and Medicare.
Let the rich pay.
“The ocean is a temperature change dampener, giving the climate higher lows and lower highs compared to inland.”
It’s the real reason the air temp isn’t even higher. But boomer don’t care. Boomer eat more, boomer get big, Boomer need bigger car, Boomer need bigger chair, Boomer need bigger house, Boomer need air conditioning for sweaty pits.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-oceans-are-absorbing-more-carbon-than-previously-thought
JCer,
You can appreciate this. We have now reached the level in Pune where the AD level leaders are interviewing Wipro candidates with 3-4 years experiences and salaries are higher than the AD is receiving. We are now turning candiates down bc our employees are p*ssed that they are making less than people onboarding. Insanity.
Bystander,
Your fellow Americans are fine with this. It’s what they want. They don’t care if you don’t eat. But you best salute the flag.
But hey, a holiday is coming where you are to wave a flag about how great your country is. Your kids are taught to “Bee Kind” to others.
But don’t worry, the same neighbors are very giving as well. When you are out of a job and homeless you can pick up your bag of rotting fruit and bedbug infested free donated mattress. Or maybe some nice wealthy women will get together and knit you a blanket out of used grocery bags and the love in their hearts.
Of course, pumpy will tell you what a loser you are and get you kicked off the bench in the park, so there is that..
The “Cosby” thing”
One accuser, Victoria Valentino told GMA: ‘I’m absolutely in shock…My stomach is lurching and I am deeply distressed about the injustice of the whole thing.’
Yeah, bet you females don’t think that way when you are taking your husbands “to the cleaners” do you?
Welcome to the justice system princess.
Phoenix
I wish I had a dash cam. A young mountain lion ran in front of my car yesterday. Biggest cat I’ve ever seen. Much bigger than the coyotes and bobcats I’ve seen in my area.
You sure it wasn’t a cougar? The ones that don’t migrate north in the Summer are pretty bad in Florida this time of the year.
Boomer eat more, boomer get big, Boomer need bigger car, Boomer need bigger chair, Boomer need bigger house, Boomer need air conditioning for sweaty pits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QRy-PEgbls
Libturd
Same thing, just different name. It was following one of the underground gas pipe lines, those are like highways for mammals in my area. I’ve seen coyotes and a bobcat pop out from that same spot . First time I saw a mountain lion. Was very cool to see.
America is probably the only country in the world whose citizens instead of going on a diet, buy clothes with elastic waistbands, then get a bigger car and a bigger house, then sue the hospital when the toilet can’t handle their 500+ pounds and collapses causing ceramic bits to wedge into their rolls of blubber.
Regarding Cosby,
Dave Chapelle’s 2017 Netflix special, just called “Dave Chapelle” had a nice bit on Bill Cosby, the good and the bad.
So AI can win at go, but AI seems to have hit a brick wall in helping create self-driving cars. How many years ago was Tesla’s real full self driving supposed to be actually working? I think Uber was supposed to have a full fleet of robo-taxis last year, and your Tesla was supposed to be making money for you robo-taxiing for your bank account while you worked at your office and slept. I saw so many BS predictions on that topic – I think peak hype was about 2017, as all of this stuff was supposed to show up around 2019 or 2020. Now people are predicting some time between 2025 and never.
Anyone else get the emergency alert to conserve power?
Thanks, Boomer.
Just think what we could have done with 816bn of infrastructure money right here in America-especially more if it didn’t go to friends, relatives and buddies construction companies.
“It has cost the US military 2,312 lives and $816bn, according to the Department of Defense.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9737599/The-troops-packing-leaving-Bagram-Airfield-Afghanistan.html
Eddie,
Forgot that scene. haha.
Alert to conserve power…nope but I had a transformer explode in my yard setting a tree on fire…..no electricity for me!
My bootleg solution, a portable generator and window ac, one room of my house is cool the rest is somewhere between 80 degrees and the temperature of hell.
Hotter than the hinges of hell.
– Kurt Vonnegut
Boomers don’t conserve power, we seize power. ;)
You Can Vacation in Hawaii. But Good Luck Finding a Rental Car.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hawaii-sees-a-run-on-rental-cars-11625069851?st=y4v41oony8k2v6n&reflink=article_copyURL_share
JCER – …I have a portable on wheels if you want it, Exit 114 GSP…
Jcer,
God bless. Brutal timing. At least it will be cooler tomorrow.
Power outage map does not look bad 1800 PSE&G
https://outagecenter.pseg.com/external/default.html
JCP&L wins so far with 6791 no power
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html
Con Ed is holding up well 3306 and only 2 in Manhattan, mostly Queens and Brooklyn have issues.
https://outagemap.coned.com/external/default.html
Jcer,
Bad timing. Sorry to hear.
Redneck AC
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/oaurqu/one_way_of_cooling_off/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Can’t make this up..
https://www.wkyc.com/video/news/local/former-sheffield-lake-police-chief-off-the-job/95-3d25f942-91a6-4edd-adff-004d5752f401?jwsource=cl
Phoenix,
You better believe it… that the chief, as he stated, is retiring and wasn’t fired.
Phoenix
If you had done that you could be charged with a hate crime. He gets to collect a 6 figure pension and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sues or goes to arbitration to collect his unused sick days he was banking since he was a rookie.
Ha. They should test this against Lions Mane mushroom which costs less than a $1 a day and there are studies that show it does improve cognitive function but the improvements are lost if the patient stops taking it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9742979/US-lawmakers-launch-investigation-controversial-approval-Alzheimers-drug-2003.html
Apple isn’t backing down from its hybrid work model, according to internal note
Employees wrote an internal letter asking to be fully remote. This is Apple’s response.
“We believe that in-person collaboration is essential to our culture and our future,” said Deirdre O’Brien, senior vice president of retail and people, in a video recording viewed by The Verge. “If we take a moment to reflect on our unbelievable product launches this past year, the products and the launch execution were built upon the base of years of work that we did when we were all together in-person.”
F*ck Apple and their overpriced shitline sold to cult members. I can buy three great computers for one of their slick little macbooks. I will never own their products. Status bullsh%t.
I haven’t bought a single apple product since the Ipod came out. The original…let me tell you…that was a piece of crap product.
iShit is a cult just like that dreck they peddle at Starbucks. But never confuse my bias for ignorance because both of these companies are in my portfolio so you thralls just keep on spending your stimmy checks on their overpriced feculence.
Oh no!! Say it ain’t so. Donnie din’t pay taxes?
PSEG was pretty decent at least compared to JCP&L and Rockland Electric, growing up with Orange and Rockland Electric every few summers a transformer would blow and the power would be out for days. They restored my power by 7:30 and actually started working on it pretty quickly after it was reported.
I have a 9kw portable generator but to start the ac units for my house I’d need 20-30 KW. It was so hot and I had so little faith in PSEG that I went and bought a window ac. A few years ago during a hot spell my neighbor was out for 4 or 5 days, I figured having a little ac was cheap insurance.
Funny to me that nothing seemed to phase the 9kw generator except my toaster oven which really seemed to strain it, then again I had a 48in subzero, a fridge/freezer in the garage, a 20 cu ft freezer, and a back bar fridge running on the thing, the starting load on my amtrol pressurizer which I think is a half horse wasn’t even as bad when it kicked on. Ye old harbor freight generator has worked pretty well not bad for $500. A lot of modern appliances are so energy efficient now it’s small things like microwaves, toaster ovens, hair dryers that have a high draw, not the dishwasher or washing machine.
Eddie, same. It’s a cult, and one that pays thousands of dollars a year for their products. I still use Winamp from 1998 to play all my music.
bystander the latest apple stuff is SO much better than the PC’s you can buy. Better build quality comparatively low price and very fast. I bought an M1 mini a month or so ago, it is running a file share, a plex server, it is transcoding 4 streams of video all while doing light duty as a desktop. The performance is nothing short of amazing but even more amazing is the IO performance and it does it with only 8 GB of ram. In a laptop the battery life is like 18 hours. My intel MacBook Pro is good but not quite as snappy and the battery life is good but not 18 hours good. I have an X1 carbon think book from work, I have the invoice it was over 3k I ordered at the same time as my personal MacBook Pro which was like 1k less expensive. The MacBook is the better machine in every measurable way battery life, the screen, the wifi all work better, the build quality of the MacBook is better too it doesn’t flex as much and handles impacts better. I don’t like some of apple’s moves with regards to expandability nor their walled garden but you cannot deny they are very well executed products. You can go buy a base M1 MacBook Air for like $1,o00, it’s a good machine for the price WAY better than any PC you can buy for that money.
Pumps no company engaged in product development like apple can go 100% remote, the logistics of collaboration and the complex social interactions would not go well over video. They are doing complex work that requires integration between multiple people and the Steve Jobs “method” requires everyone to beat up the product as they developing it, it’s not easy to tell your coworkers something is crap over the phone. It’s not like the nonsense built in banks they don’t want great, they don’t even want good they want cheap and barely functioning, you can’t compare the build or process. When I used to do development for trading desks you had to physically be there, that has not changed, if something isn’t working you need to see it as it happens where it happens, those people need to get back into the office. If your job is the NY or London office they deemed long ago they needed you present in the office, if not they would have tried to relocate your job to a value location.
Winamp. Haven’t heard that name in a while.
I’m surprised it can even still run…..
or are you still running Windows ME?
Don’t own one either, except for an Ipad, which does work flawlessly. Kid uses it to draw with the Apple pencil, it’s actually amazing.
The M1 is a game changer. Older Macs used to hold their value so much it was almost like buying real estate. Then came the M1. You still see people trying to hawk the old technology and only muppets will buy it.
I will probably buy a Mac Mini shortly just to play with it. Kid can use Imovie which unlike Windows you don’t have to pay additionally for it and it’s better than anything Windows gives you for free.
I’m also in the market for a new phone. Going to wait until Sept to see what comes out, I’m android now, but open to change. Both have their advantages/disadvantages. I need and want a flagship phone, but Google’s latest offerings really suck.
Phoenix my issue is I keep phones or computers for that matter for a very long time, apple supports their phones damn near forever, android the hand sets are dropped in short time. Old Macs keep working that is why they hold value, also apple was terrible at updating chipsets so older machines were not necessarily so much slower than newer ones. I replaced my old MacBook when it was 8 years old, my kid is using my old MacBook Air from 2014 and it works really well, my PC’s of similar vintage ceased to function and have been disposed of.(I’m a technology horder, I buy lots of random things, I have so many defunct tablets and PDA’s it’s not funny, I think I have an old Psion lying around somewhere). I like android and use android but as a platform it is nowhere near as stable, google has changed direction like a million times, iOS still resembles the original.
My strategy with apple products is to stick close to the base models, I used to get upgraded hardware but apple really charges a premium for upgrades. The base model is good enough and you can replace it more often if you don’t over invest. Even the iPhone SE is very usable, I still can’t believe phones are 1k at this time, I have a Chinese flagship(Xiaomi) it’s pretty good and it was only $450(I’ve had Huawei, TCL, One Plus), but even the Chinese flagships have eye watering prices.
“…no company engaged in product development like apple can go 100% remote, the logistics of collaboration and the complex social interactions would not go well over video. They are doing complex work that requires integration between multiple people…When I used to do development for trading desks you had to physically be there, that has not changed…those people need to get back into the office. ”
Above is the best thought on WFH in a while….
I stopped commenting because it seemed we reached a dead end in the debate. It felt as if people were talking about different topics entirely at times.
Bottom line…aside from jobs that simply can’t be done from home – goods manufacturing, services like construction – the main determinant becomes whether the employee is mission critical, client facing, or collaborative on complex and creative work. Or is he support for the above?
Support in any sector can be substantially WFH….for example, it is totally unnecessary to have financial reporting and the finance and accounting groups reporting into it physically sitting in the office together. No disagreement there.
Generally, if you create a “value” spectrum for various roles in a corporation the lower one lands on the value added chain the more likely the work can be performed from home AND the more likely the employee will seek to do such work from home (ie, the compensation is not worth the cost and time of the commute).
The only caution for that employee looking in the mirror and saying it isn’t worth going into the office while I can do this task from home is that the mirror is two-way…..as that employee works from home the corporate will be looking in the mirror saying if I don’t need this employee actually physically present do I need this exact employee doing this work.
Pand0ra’s b0x.
Bingo.
Out of sight, out of mind. No relationship to actually speak of.
“The only caution for that employee looking in the mirror and saying it isn’t worth going into the office while I can do this task from home is that the mirror is two-way…..as that employee works from home the corporate will be looking in the mirror saying if I don’t need this employee actually physically present do I need this exact employee doing this work.”
Phoenix, I don’t understand the WFH enthusiasm in this area for anyone older than GenZ in a support role…..they’re cutting their own throats…..
I’m sure people in the industry like grim can give better data but white collar support jobs here can be comped close to 1.5x what an equivalent worker in flyover country gets for the same work….that local comp premium is almost entirely cost of living and had to be paid by the corporate to the local employee here because they needed them based here….
Why would anyone in their right mind voluntarily surrender a geographical monopoly that increases their comp?
Glad I’m beyond needing to care.
chi, from the other day….
That’s a nice stroll around campus. Jealous. With no hockey I haven’t been up there recently.
Did you have a glass of wine with Clot?
left, WFH is funny. I have a totally flexible arrangement with my job. I used to go in because face time with the client increases my value and frankly I set my own hours so I’d show up at 9:30 and leave at 4 or 5. I can WFH as can others because of value add, some people are afforded flexibility because there aren’t many others who can do their “job” or provide the same value so they are in the driver’s seat. Regardless of where I sit I produce more savings and more revenue than my cost, being able to physically interact with the client in NYC is an added bonus for my employer. I know others who are the same, picked up their sh*t and moved to flyover country because they were confident in their ability to retain their position, that being said this handicaps their future earnings as their employer will see them as more captive.
As for Grim’s early comments there does seem to be a bit of “war for talent”, lots of turnover at the moment and it must be bad enough that I recently received an unsolicited extra bonus, which I know my employer only gives when they few someone as an imminent flight risk and when I requested it for my people in the past my management pretty much universally denied the requests, they wanted these people to leave so they could ship their jobs to India, which was a big mistake these people per unit of productivity were cheaper(they made fewer mistakes, which is huge).
Those with commoditized skills are definitely opening themselves up to geographic arbitrage. If a job can be done fully remote they want to bring the salary down, that is a fact. My wife has to have this talk with her employees, get back to the office in NY if you want to keep your pay, those who can do the job remotely likely will be re-baselined at the salaries offered in the value locations. You want the MD’s to view you as someone who must absolutely be in office.
As someone who has extensively worked in both types of situations, geographically dispersed teams vs. localized. there is a lot more efficiency to all being in the same place. Anything somewhat complex is more easily communicated in person, it is easier to read people and see their reaction, it’s easier to resolve issues face to face rather than in a conference call, a phone call, or a chat, yes we have better tools now but the human aspect is missing and many underestimate what that really means. Even with the best collaboration tools a back and forth with someone using a whiteboard beats the heck out of video, e-whiteboards, etc. It’s why we used to spent a heck of a lot of money on travel.
Spot on with you JCer…feel I could have written your post word-for-word…except your prose is better and more direct :)