From the FT:
US home price gains hit new record for fourth straight month
The increase in US home prices continued to accelerate in July, setting an annual record for the fourth straight month as strong demand and a dearth of available properties sent values soaring.
Home prices were up 19.7 per cent nationally compared with the same month last year, the biggest gain on record dating back to 1988, according to the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller index. That surpassed the previous record set in June, when prices rose 18.7 per cent year on year.
“The last several months have been extraordinary, not only in the level of price gains but in the consistency of gains across the country,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Property values in 10 major markets grew 19.1 per cent versus a year ago, while the 20-city index jumped 19.9 per cent.
Seventeen of those 20 cities posted higher annual growth rates when compared to June. Home prices in all but one of those markets sit at all-time highs, with Chicago just 0.3 per cent below its peak.
THE CHILLER RETURNS
From Yahoo Money:
Home prices ‘will see big declines in coming years,’ expert predicts
Despite four straight months of record-breaking increases, home prices could end up reversing course in the next few years, according to one expert.
“There is a chance that we will see big declines in coming years,” Yale Professor of Economics Robert J. Shiller said on Yahoo Finance Live. “I think people are anxious about that at this point in history.”
In July, housing values jumped 19.7% year over year, up from 18.7% in June and the fourth month in a row setting record high growth, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. The 20-City Composite grew 19.9% in July, up from 19.1% a month earlier and just shy of analysts’ expectations of a 20% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
“It’s surprising the timing of this,” Shiller said. “It came starting in a recession. We’re supposed to be depressed and yet we seem to be exuberant in the market.”
Our vaccination perimeter set by Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia appears to be holding against the delta wave that burned up through Tennessee and Kentucky into Ohio and West Virginia. Will Western PA hold it back? Appears to have bled into the less-vaccinated counties (south central). PA cases up 10% in the past two weeks.
Cases falling fast week over week in Kentucky (-20%) and Tennessee (-25%), and starting to tip in West Virginia (-9%). Maybe we can hold it back?
Watching the county-level geographic spread on the animated maps really do show this behaving like a wildfire, burning up from the south towards the upper midwest and northeast. The animations show it coming up towards the NE and slamming into what looks like a wall at PA/MD/VA, the state borders clearly showing the differences in infection rates.
No more MU variant…
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-mu-variant-covid-coronavirus-vaccine-resistant-20210929-5m2klnhqhfaengx6v5szpoa3z4-story.html
Housing Supply Shock!
“the real estate industry is already preparing for a supply shock: Hundreds of thousands of these currently protected homes (mortgage forbearance) could soon be put on the market.”
https://fortune.com/2021/09/28/housing-market-supply-home-prices-2021/
Israel and Singapore have proven that vaccinations haven’t been barriers to transmission. They can slow it. But their breakthrough cases have been sky high. 3rd wave coming. The only way this ends is enough people acquiring the actual virus. A deactivated virus vaccine would have helped because you get more genetic information from that. It’s best to acquire the virus in the first 2 to 4 months of your most recent booster. Then, you are more likely to not develop illness or be asymptomatic.
Penn and Virginia have some of the lowest per capita infection rates in the country, yet haven’t been impacted in the same way as West Virginia. Difference being vaccination rate.
BRT,
I was going to mention Israel as well. Which is why I expect things to look different around here in about two weeks. One of our younger grades in elementary school is almost completely in quarantine (or they are supposed to be). I think when herd immunity is finally reached and the final conclusions are made, we’ll find out that the vaccines did indeed make a huge difference (in hospitalization rates and deaths) but did little to flatten the curve of those infected. It definitely helped to keep our hospitals from overflowing, and that alone makes it worth it. IMO, if you choose not to be vaccinated, then you should not be in our hospitals when you get sick. You are not entitled to soc1alized health care if you do not play on the team.
Israel explained.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why
Sounds plausible to me and works with your theory.
Wow, does he understand the issue with supply and demand?
“It’s surprising the timing of this,” Shiller said. “It came starting in a recession. We’re supposed to be depressed and yet we seem to be exuberant in the market.”
A chance, sure, but most likely not going to happen based on the supply and demand issue. Wake up. Pay attention to what matters and you will see the light.
“There is a chance that we will see big declines in coming years,” Yale Professor of Economics Robert J. Shiller said on Yahoo Finance Live. “I think people are anxious about that at this point in history.”
The real problem for the Covid is the mRNA vaccines are formulated for the Wuhan strain spike protein. If they simply approve the new Delta variant spike proteins in the vaccine we would not be seeing so many breakthrough infections.
The manufacturing of the spike protein’s mRNA is now well established, it’s simply changing a template out. The Billions of doses given have proven how safe and effective these mRNA vaccines are. We know that flooding our bodies with harmless copies of the spike protein works. We just need to get better and faster with less red tape approvals and more efficient roll out.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-can-be-updated-for-the-delta-variant-heres-how-11632399254
Juice,
the spike is not harmless, and there are a lot of negative reactions, more than we should be comfortable with. The reality is, this can likely be solved by reducing the dose and spacing out the shots over a few months.
This is a compound problem. Updating the mRNA would increase the efficacy, but the problem is also the waning efficacy that occurs over months. The only way it prevents infection is with high antibody levels. Breakthroughs would occur either way. Moreover, you can’t continually boost because the vaccine doesn’t scale linearly. There are studies that show too much vaccination can lead to less efficient T-Cell response which would likely increase breakthrough infections.
This is why FDA officials are hesitant to approve a 3rd booster for the entire population. But Biden, the same guy who claimed that the orange man would put pressure on the FDA, is doing just that. The CDC director is a political plant and she overruled her own experts. She’s proven she’s not an expert on anything other than climbing the political ladder.
BRT – re: “not harmless”
I don’t think you can back that up…A rash or an allergic reaction is not something that would be considered serious.
the spike is not harmless, and there are a lot of negative reactions, more than we should be comfortable with. The reality is, this can likely be solved by reducing the dose and spacing out the shots over a few months.
FDA considering the Moderna proposal for booster at half dose this morning.
20% YOY increase in house prices a.k.a f.uck you, pay me.
Blumpy questioning the guy who basically created the entire modern model around home price indexing. He gets “ahh, we are going to die. Need to get out this urban jungle. Rates are lowest on record. I will pay any price. I can sell it higher later”
I suspect what we’re going to find is that looking at overall vaccination rates as a proxy for population coverage is somewhat flawed, even at the state or county level.
What I mean by that is, the vaccinated population isn’t equally spread throughout the entire population, as the statistic would imply. Instead, what you are seeing are large pockets of unvaccinated people, clustered together. Whether that be geographic, political, religious, cultural, racial, whatever.
It’s these pockets that Delta fed on to spread.
Like the old analyses we did on real estate aggregate statistics, there ain’t no median priced homes for sale, and there aint no average vaxxed population. You have pockets of 90%+, and pockets of 10%-.
I don’t think any epidemiologist ever considered the impact of politicization and vaccine polarization on the distribution of doses. What you’ve got is Swiss cheese across the US, which made it very easy for these waves to propagate.
Suspect if we did have more even coverage, the delta wave would have been substantially blunted.
Bystander: You summed that up nicely. Whose opinion should one value, Pumps or Schiller.
“I don’t think any epidemiologist ever considered the impact of politicization and vaccine polarization on the distribution of doses.”
Yes.
Grim the wall in the NE is not just the vaccine but also natural immunity. The covid rates in our area are higher than what’s reported, many got covid in the winter/spring of 2020 and it was not reported. It was spreading through the big metro areas. So not only is there the higher vaccination rate but also much higher instances of natural immunity.
The sinovac vaccine is a deactivated virus, I’m not convinced it offers better protection than the MRNA or vector vaccines that we have. There does seem to be some issue with Pfizer/Biontech vaccine where the protection is waning to a greater extent than the others. I also think we are looking at so few cases for identification we are not really aware if we have variants that are more resistant to the vaccine circulating.
The vaccine has not proven to slow the spread necessarily, yes it provides protection for the recipient and reduces viral loads but the issue is it allows for more silent transmission/asymptomatic cases where the host is infected and doesn’t know about it.
Grim the wall in the NE is not just the vaccine but also natural immunity. The covid rates in our area are higher than what’s reported, many got covid in the winter/spring of 2020 and it was not reported.
Agree, not one, but two recorded substantial waves, and the preliminary pre-test spread.
VARES data tells the story about the safety of vaccine in the USA..
The CDC reports out of more than 386 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines given from Dec. 14, 2020, until Sept. 20, 2021, there have been 7,899 reports of death among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine.
This guy was surprised at the surging housing market, meanwhile, I called it back in 2012/13.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-04-27/yale-s-shiller-surprised-by-surging-u-s-housing-market-video
VAERS data is widely misrepresented.
He simply is not paying attention to the supply and demand issues at play. The housing market has never experienced this kind of supply and demand issue before.
JB, the vaccine has higher incidence of adverse reactions than they are reporting and some cases can be quite serious. Furthermore increased frequency of doses increases the odds of complications. I said it back in march of 2020 when people hamfisted were saying vaccination would end the pandemic. The vaccines aren’t the answer, therapeutics are, we need to keep people out of the hospital not prevent them from getting infected. Mass vaccination in the midst of pandemic with a leaky vaccine is actually very dangerous, Geert Vanden Bossche is right, not that the dire case comes to pass but there is a non-trivial chance it does.
We are rolling the dice so to speak.
Interesting data point about masks in schools.
https://www.nj.com/education/2021/09/nj-district-has-more-than-900-staff-students-on-covid-quarantine-after-starting-year-mask-optional.html
Pumps: Do you really think a man of his caliber and expertise is not paying attention to supply/demand issues, like he missed that part of it?
VAERS data is widely misrepresented.
Don’t tell that to the lawyers who profit handsomely from it.
I don’t think you can back that up…A rash or an allergic reaction is not something that would be considered serious.
Myocarditis is. The risk in children on 2nd shot is approximately 1 in 6000, which is greater than the risk of hospitalization from COVID for that age group. That’s why they are proposing 1/3 the dose.
Moreover, persistent fever symptoms over days is also unwanted from therapeutics. I’ve posted this a number of times, but the dosage and scheduling were selected for logistical reasons related to distribution and maximizing immune response in the shortest amount of time. Now that the rush is over, we need to calmly step back and evaluate whether 1 shot or 2 shots is appropriate for kids. What should the dosing be? Should it be a sliding scale based on weight/age/gender?
Grim, I’ve been thinking about this all year but honestly you’re the first person who I’ve seen say this:
“…the vaccinated population isn’t equally spread throughout the entire population, as the statistic would imply. Instead, what you are seeing are large pockets of unvaccinated people, clustered together. Whether that be geographic, political, religious, cultural, racial, whatever…”
Birds of a feather flock together, as they say.
Average vaccination rates can be just as useless as average home prices, depending on what you’re trying to understand.
So how did he miss this run up in pricing based on demand and not enough supply?
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 9:24 am
Pumps: Do you really think a man of his caliber and expertise is not paying attention to supply/demand issues, like he missed that part of it?
That’s the thing with experts. They are so smart, and so deep in the subject matter, sometimes they miss the simple dynamics at play. I’m not saying he is not smart or doesn’t know as much as me. I am simply saying that he missed the supply and demand dynamic at play like most experts.
Even Gottlieb feels like he is banging his head against the wall…from his CNBC interview a few days ago….
The vaccines are not there to prevent infection. Never were. Not intended to be.
I’ve stopped posting that view as it feels like shouting into the wind…..
From the beginning – go back and look at every medical professional’s presentation no matter how widely separated by opinion – the goal was to “flatten the curve” of HOSPITALIZATIONS.
This vaccine does not prevent transmission or infection. Never did. Slows it, yes. Decreases the number of each in the absolute, yes. But eradicate infection or transmission? No. Breakthrough cases and continued outbreaks were absolutely certain.
Yet each one is an alarming new news item…..
If you have a destination and need to speed to get there…..make sure you are on the right highway. Driving 90 mph to get to Boston on time is fine, until you realize you’re on I-81N…..in which case all that speed is not only wasted, but downright counterproductive.
From nearly most perspectives on the pandemic we as a country are pedal to metal on the accelerator lost on some dark backroad in some nameless county without GPS and uncertain of even our destination.
But, yeah, let’s get our undies all twisted up over breakthrough cases, new infections, and the virus running through a young, unvaccinated population of school children….
JFC.
BRT – Correct the dosage was too high for kids when it was given to the older kids 12-16. That is why it’s being dialed down. BTW the older vaccine tech used to create a covid vaccine has shown adverse issues too.. However the fact still remains these mRNA vaccines are most powerful vaccines the world has ever seen, and the VAERS data shows it. There has been nothing like it in history, it’s a game changer for all diseases.
I don’t want to be an antivaxxer…Kids should get a lower dosage but they should still get it and it should not be for the Wuhan strain but the Delta which is 98% of all infections now.
The stuff of science fiction is now reality and the RNA revolution has just begun. We can expand lifespan already…RNA therapies are in development such as protein replacement and CRISPR-Cas DNA editing. For example they have figured out how to prolong life already by disabling KAT7 gene. Gene silencing by CRISPR alleviated deterioration with age caused by cancer, UV, and oxidative stresses….Imagine living to 140 years old and not get most age related diseases…
“Now that the rush is over, we need to calmly step back and evaluate whether 1 shot or 2 shots is appropriate for kids. What should the dosing be? Should it be a sliding scale based on weight/age/gender?”
Scientists on government advisory panels are trying. They are getting overruled by political appointees and drowned out by the shrillness of the MSM. So they are resigning rather than be part of a charade….
Can you imagine the downright media and Congressional riot that would occur under any other Administration if political appointees overruled scientific panels and members of scientific panels quit in response….
Car full of teenagers speeding through the night with no high beams…..
Here are the latest slides from the CDC on the mRNA vaccine safety.
mRNAvaccines have shown– Anaphylaxis and Myocarditis
The more traditional J&J vaccine has shown Toxic shock syndrome and guillain barre syndrome.
Meeting was Sept 22nd
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/slides-2021-09-22-23.html
Juice, just because the technology is good does not mean we should be using it how we are using it. I’ve been of the opinion that Fauci and others like him intended to use the pandemic to launch this technology hence the heavy push towards vaccination. I’m not certain we should vaccinate the children. As we have already discussed it doesn’t stop the spread, so this nonsense of the unvaccinated somehow putting people as risk makes no sense, the unvaccinated are certainly at greater risk of infection. Statistically speaking children have bigger problems with the flu.
Sure, he missed it d&mbass. In Jan 2020, you could not sell a home in my town without a loss (like my former neighbors who paid 890K in 2014 and sold for $837K in Dec 2019 plus all renovations done; easy 100K loss total). Wells would not even offer a mortage in Fairfield County without quarter point extra due to it being ‘distressed’. That is fact.Suddenly the virus hits and we become the most popular town in entire Northeast.
Rates go to 0, MBS market bailed out to trillions, cash stuffed in everyone’s pocket..and wow, this is natural demand according to resident dummy. Perhaps Shiller sees it and thinks it is unsustainable given conditions of economy, inflation and lack of high paying jobs. You just refuse to see it.
I bet his tenant that isn’t paying rent has a nice down payment built up to overpay on a home now.
All I know is the prices are warranted in Bergen County. Many overweight house tour guides have told me so. It’s warranted because prestige and haughtiness have a price! This is all I know along with love is love, no human is illegal and kindness is everything. Oh, and I believe in science, especially if it’s politically expedient.
Ed,
If you want to get down to it, this country has too much time on our hands and we focus on stupid sh%t. Rather than tightening our belts, expunge weak businesses and force banks to compete for consumer cash – we took the easy path and allowed the Fed to pump the system to make everyone temporarily fat & happy. That was the poltical expedience from which we suffer. It all stems from that 2008 – 2009 moral hazard.
Rates were already low. This demand has been building prior to covid. This is what happens when millions of millennials enter the market every year and there is not enough housing to fill their demand. It really is as simple as that.
Cash being stuffed in pockets was simply not enough to fuel this housing market…Let’s be real.
Bystander says:
September 29, 2021 at 10:16 am
Sure, he missed it d&mbass. In Jan 2020, you could not sell a home in my town without a loss (like my former neighbors who paid 890K in 2014 and sold for $837K in Dec 2019 plus all renovations done; easy 100K loss total). Wells would not even offer a mortage in Fairfield County without quarter point extra due to it being ‘distressed’. That is fact.Suddenly the virus hits and we become the most popular town in entire Northeast.
Rates go to 0, MBS market bailed out to trillions, cash stuffed in everyone’s pocket..and wow, this is natural demand according to resident dummy. Perhaps Shiller sees it and thinks it is unsustainable given conditions of economy, inflation and lack of high paying jobs. You just refuse to see it.
Those kids in the towns with the mask mandates must be holding their breath all day because previous apolitical studies have shown that surgical masks do not stop the spread of particulates.
Pumps: Supply and demand does not matter if the salaries don’t cover the increase in prices; at some point it breaks.
“Sure, he missed it d&mbass…Rates go to 0, MBS market bailed out to trillions, cash stuffed in everyone’s pocket..and wow, this is natural demand according to resident dummy.”
Why do you and 3b even bother, lol. Life is so much better on here when you just pass right over his posts.
Don’t you know, he predicted the pandemic eight years ago!!!!! And he’s so good he’ll soon post an accurate estimate of the number of blades of grass in your backyard without ever having been there! Truly astounding, he is!!!
Tony Fauci is a sick man. He has an apparent savior complex.
First he contributes to a pandemic that has killed a few million in his zeal for developing vaccine technology that was later weaponized.
Now he’s willing to compromise the future health of generation without any discernible benefit in order to take credit slowing the spread that was occurring anyway.
Do you know how tight labor lending standards are right now? This price appreciation is being driven by people that can afford it. The people crying about losing out and giving up in this market in newspaper articles, simply can’t compete.
People think housing should be guaranteed. They need to wake up and smell the coffee. It’s based on a market, and you are not getting desirable homes for cheap in a tight housing market being driven by a bottle neck in the supply and demand equation. Too many people want to live in a desirable location, and unfortunately, only the highest bidder gets to live there based on market fundamentals.
The housing market is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. Too many people are obsessed with pipe dreams of “forcing” “affordable housing” in prime highly desirable locations. Good luck with that. That’s like trying to make a Porsche affordable for the masses.
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 10:43 am
Pumps: Supply and demand does not matter if the salaries don’t cover the increase in prices; at some point it breaks.
Bystander,
I don’t disagree with anything you mentioned above. By the way, one of the songs by Phish that I spaced out to on last Sunday morning’s drive was “Divided Sky.” I was listening to a concert somewhere in the 90s in Colorado, I believe.
To the non-idiot crowd, should a buyer get a mortage with 55% DTI? I remember back in 2007 when 37% was limit without major cash on hand. I think now you only need to provide 3 months reserve to cover mortgage. Change the rules and voila..everyone qualifies for 10/15/30 year.
LW,
Not sure if you called yesterday. So busy at work could not come up for air. Today is better.
Yup $2,500 for a DTI ratio of 50 percent, and still qualify for a Fannie Mae loan.
Pumps: Where have I heard that before, driven by people who can afford it, yeah on paper. For many there will be very little left over after all the basic monthly bills left over.
Ed,
That is one of my favorites from their first album Junta. It is fantastic, jazzy blissful solo..very gripping.
Save this one for a puff. It is absolutely amazing version. I think Trey said it too in interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J2SYX5amqk
Juice: My wife does closings from time to time and she says there are still people doing 5 percent down loans.
3b
A recipe for failure. Maybe not this year, or the next, or the next, but one trip up when you are at full throttle can spell disaster.
Our masters have us right where they want us.
My guess is they would be fine gambling with our lives like those on Squid Games.
3B -FHA is 3.5 percent….but for high DTI you need to put down more….Again idea is to borrow as much as you can…driving up the prices of homes that you can barely afford to begin with…
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By,
I’ll check it out, aided by a supplement enhancer. :) He’s a really good guitar player and the dude on bass is playing a five-string bass and doing arpeggios on the damn thing! Their songs are complicated and beautifully messy which holds my attention.
Juice: Understand. It’s this nonsense that all these folks have massive incomes and can keep bidding prices up, that is BS. Some due of course , many others don’t.
Ivy Zelman is regarded as the top analyst for the housing industry. In her interview the other day, she says while she is a bit early, SFH and Multi are overbuilt and land acquisition prices will be an issue when the costs cannot be passed on. She called the last housing bust before anyone and was given the name poison Ivy and she notoriously asked Bob Toll on a call in ’05, “Which KoolAid are you drinking”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzdQgJutq1E
GOAT,
Let me spell it out for you. Those particulate mask studies are useless because they do not simulate real-world situations. Of course masks are not 100% effective. Much like condoms. But 90% is a lot better than raw dogging it.
Here is more proof for you to dismiss because Fauci is the anti-christ.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/briefing/covid-red-states-vaccinations.html
3b,
How are these people buying? They have to have the means. Go and try to get a mortgage for a house you can’t afford…it won’t happen. The process is tough.
Plus, how are so many of these closing based on cash offers? Where is it coming from if they don’t have it?
By,
in 2011, I had trouble qualifying for $435k. Was only making around $60k and wife was pregnant and not working. So we could only use my income. I ended up putting 40% down to get it done. They didn’t care that I even had enough liquid assets to pay the house outright in cash.
Apparently someone hasn’t heard of Rocket Mortgage
Overbuilt? In markets like north jersey, how can you be overbuilt? Maybe she is referencing the south and west? Maybe she is counting the legions of “shit” inventory? Desirable is almost non existent.
I respect her, but I hope she is not trying to cash in on her elite position by selling a book.
Nomad says:
September 29, 2021 at 11:13 am
Ivy Zelman is regarded as the top analyst for the housing industry. In her interview the other day, she says while she is a bit early, SFH and Multi are overbuilt and land acquisition prices will be an issue when the costs cannot be passed on. She called the last housing bust before anyone and was given the name poison Ivy and she notoriously asked Bob Toll on a call in ’05, “Which KoolAid are you drinking”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzdQgJutq1E
In 2004, when I went to buy my multi, they offered me $1,000,000 and asked very few questions.
In 2011, when I went to buy my GR home, they took 2 pints of my blood and made me explain every transaction in my life for the prior two months. It took tricky financing to do it (even though I was putting 20% down) including a 50K Heloc to get it done.
In 2021, when I refinanced into a 10 year (payed off my multi) on my primary, they again offered me a million dollars.
I close on my 300K loan at 1.9% next week. Admittedly, the 7 figure equity in the two homes might have played a role this time around.
The amount of measured reduction in spread with face coverings is within the main of error. Worthless…
But I’m sure the activists writing for the star ledger and New York Times are a lot more credible.
Lib, same, chase was harping on a $5 discrepancy from paycheck to paycheck. I remember yelling at the guy, who I think was in Arizona, to just use the lowest check. He didn’t quite understand. I literally got a printout of every check ever issued to me and underlined them all in crayon to prove a point.
My mortgage guy at the local chase bank had to do all the work as the people they had working at whatever office clearly had no clue what they were doing. When he left, I kept his contact information. He runs his own operation now and I used him to refi.
Those kids in the towns with the mask mandates must be holding their breath all day because previous apolitical studies have shown that surgical masks do not stop the spread of particulates.
Mandates are meaningless and so are comparisons. If I take a picture of our cafeteria, it’s packed like sardines at maximum capacity. Moreover, half of the masks have noses hanging out. I work in a school where the kids are highly disciplined. No kids in the hallway ever. Haven’t seen a fight in 7 years. Nobody in any school is taking to task to tell them to put them on. Zero spread in our school right now, but the town boasts a vax rate in the high 90s for the adult 18+ population.
There are lots of Boomers still living in north Jersey towns. One or two people well into their 70s and 80s. They won’t be there forever; there will be lots of supply in the future.
Pumps: Jeez, Schiller is wring and now Zelma’s is wrong, and maybe trying to cash in on her status. But you of course are right!
Pumps: There is the I can afford it on paper, and then the actual month to month expenses. A person could have zero balances on their credit cards, and then on the day they close go out and charge them all up.
Pending Sales Post a Surprising Surge
“Pending home sales rebounded in August after falling in both June and July. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), based on contracts signed for the purchase of existing homes, rose 8.1 percent from the July level. This put the PHSI at 119.5, still down 8.3 percent from its 130.3 reading in August 2020.
The surge was not one analysts had expected. Those polled by Econoday expected only an 0.9 percent improvement. Trading Economic’s consensus was a 1.4 percent rise.
“Rising inventory and moderating price conditions are bringing buyers back to the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Affordability, however, remains challenging as home price gains are roughly three times wage growth.” He added that such an imbalance in the market is unsustainable over the long-term.”
They have the money to sign on the dotted line, but don’t realize they don’t to replace the heater, AC, and deteriorating roof.
Geesus, BRT..40%, that is nutso.
Hey dummy,
See below
Q1 2021 16.96
2020 16.78
2019 16.04
2018 15.42
What is it? Mortgage debt by year. Almost 1.5T added in 20 mos. Tell us more about all the rich people and cash buyers in the market making this sustainable?
When the most unethical, compromised economist around calls it unsustainable, perhaps it is.
Gotta go but the price is the secondary issue and fix-ups costs are tertiary…primary, who the f*ck agrees to pay 20K year in taxes on avg colonial in Glen Rock? My buddy did.
It’s official for us. We are permanently WFH, from the top to the bottom. There is no requirement to be in the office for any period of time. Going to the office will only be required if there is a specific need for a specific purpose. People can work in the office if they choose, but going forward real estate foot print will shrink. Multiple factors went into the decision including the overwhelming support from employees.
My company is leaning in this direction as well. Congrats for the employees and their families.
Lib: People are very happy, especially those with children. It’s a huge quality of life improvement.
Interest article on ZeroHedge regarding Cathie Wood’s ARKK and TSLA. If we do get a plunge lower, Wood’s forced sales will create a self-reinforcing drop in the remaining value of her holdings. Reminiscent of Archegos Capital, which was run by her former mentor, Bill Hwang. You could probably include this as an episode on “Billions”.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dont-look-now-cathie-wood-just-sold-another-270-million-tesla-shares
Lib/3b,
Lucky you guys are older. Your companies sound like they are dying. Not meant to be taken in a malicious way either, I’m just being real. Anyone that can run a company without face to face contact, has no chance in the long run. They are just going through the motionsc(which can be done remotely) before they are dead. Nothing innovative is coming from a fully remote company, maybe a few can get away with it, but most can not.
And how much more did the assets go up in value over the last 20 months?
Bystander says:
September 29, 2021 at 11:47 am
Geesus, BRT..40%, that is nutso.
Hey dummy,
See below
Q1 2021 16.96
2020 16.78
2019 16.04
2018 15.42
What is it? Mortgage debt by year. Almost 1.5T added in 20 mos. Tell us more about all the rich people and cash buyers in the market making this sustainable?
who the f*ck agrees to pay 20K year in taxes on avg colonial in Glen Rock? My buddy did.
Prestige has a price! And that overweight 4th grade teacher with the 125K salary is so worth it!
Anyone that can run a company without face to face contact, has no chance in the long run.
Amazon?
Listen, I’m not saying that there won’t eventually be a pull back in the housing market. It’s cyclical. So eventually when the market runs out of millennial buyers, it will stagnate or drop. That’s not now. That’s in 2026 at the earliest.
Look at 2008. In desirable areas like nyc metro, you won’t see a huge drop. You will see stagnation for years till the next cycle picks up. Places that always crash hard will do so again (florida, vegas, second home type locations).
Maybe I know nothing, like you guys told me the last decade and were wrong. Maybe this time I am wrong, and you are correct. Pretty sure I’m on the right side of the ball, but we will see.
Stu: don’t let familiarity breed contempt; for as fcuked as we are, we still crush the crap out of the rest of the world.
I would liken the U.S. as a nation to California. Cali could not be any worsely mismanaged. A society of hubris and privilege, with a myopic and idiotic governing class. Foolish people without the ability to transcend the obvious conflicts in logic and justice. All that said, California’s strength is natural resources, culture, wealth and as a nexus of business mean that they will not only persist, but flourish, if not dominate (unless they fall into the sea).
Irritating, sickening and absolutely the case……. that is how the world views us, and how the U.S. is relative to the world.
Libturd says:
September 28, 2021 at 11:29 am
The world believes climate change is an issue. If the US is so dysfunctional that it can’t get its act together, our treasuries are going to have to pay more and our rating goes down. Our position as the reserve currency could be in jeopardy from these shenanigans. Never before has so much been at risk. Remember, Trump said this was the greatest economy ever and squandered a trillion dollars overnight. Now we don’t even have a dollar to save the world? We are going to look very bad. The world will know it’s the populists. All of a sudden being fiscally responsible is back? The world is not as dumb as us. The world didn’t write tens of thousands of dollars of checks for ever member of society regardless of need. We are so doomed.
Pumps: You really are an arrogant little twit! My company is not dying, far from it, and Neither is Libs. Again, you have no idea of what we do it and how it’s done. Absolute ZERO experience, and yet again you feel qualified to opine. The fact remains as it has this last 18 months you hate WFH as it may negatively impact you personally. Lib and I may be older, but we get it, been in our respective area in the corporate world for years, unlike yourself of course, you sound like the old guy who does not want change, and of course we know why. You talk of your creative destruction, well here it is, WFH.
Let’s see Amazon continue to come up with that innovation without teams that develop in person. I’m telling you, workers that work alone in their home for years get the life sucked out of them. I have never been as depressed as I was when I was WFH over the past year and half. It absolutely sucks the life out of you. Some people do better under it, but they are the slim minority.
Fast Eddie says:
September 29, 2021 at 12:52 pm
Anyone that can run a company without face to face contact, has no chance in the long run.
Amazon?
Who the f’k wants to sit at home all day and night? Something is wrong with you if you think this is good for your health.
As for your companies…all I need to know is that they can function without a physical location. That means they are not innovative and quite frankly are getting by with the same repetitive steps. They are not changing, they are only staying the same, and they will die over time.
Again, would you take your hard earned money and start a company that has only remote workers? Could you imagine a better way to burn your hard earned money. It will be a disaster. It’s hard enough to start a company in person, could you imagine trying to teach them over zoom. F that. Plus, how do you manage them? Who knows wtf they are doing. Are they even doing the job or are they pawning it off to someone else? Do they have another job while you are paying them for this full time job? I can go on and on, but you refuse to acknowledge anything I say.
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 12:56 pm
Pumps: You really are an arrogant little twit! My company is not dying, far from it, and Neither is Libs. Again, you have no idea of what we do it and how it’s done. Absolute ZERO experience, and yet again you feel qualified to opine. The fact remains as it has this last 18 months you hate WFH as it may negatively impact you personally. Lib and I may be older, but we get it, been in our respective area in the corporate world for years, unlike yourself of course, you sound like the old guy who does not want change, and of course we know why. You talk of your creative destruction, well here it is, WFH.
I forgot about that guy…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok6uzndOmPA
grim says:
September 29, 2021 at 6:26 am
THE CHILLER RETURNS
From Yahoo Money:
Home prices ‘will see big declines in coming years,’ expert predicts
Despite four straight months of record-breaking increases, home prices could end up reversing course in the next few years, according to one expert.
“There is a chance that we will see big declines in coming years,” Yale Professor of Economics Robert J. Shiller said on Yahoo Finance Live. “I think people are anxious about that at this point in history.”
In July, housing values jumped 19.7% year over year, up from 18.7% in June and the fourth month in a row setting record high growth, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. The 20-City Composite grew 19.9% in July, up from 19.1% a month earlier and just shy of analysts’ expectations of a 20% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
“It’s surprising the timing of this,” Shiller said. “It came starting in a recession. We’re supposed to be depressed and yet we seem to be exuberant in the market.”
Wait till remote companies start getting catfished. So much sh!t can go wrong. Putting your company in the hands of a full remote workforce is f’ing straight up dangerous gamble to save a few bucks on real estate. What are real estate costs for a business? Maybe a slim percentage of their cost. So gambling away your business on the hopes it can survive remotely….no thanks.
all day and night?
The Great Pumpkin says:
September 29, 2021 at 1:04 pm
Who the f’k wants to sit at home all day and night?
3b,
It is a beautiful day. Going to on my patio with my laptop and enjoy sun. Not like the fishbowl at work where people could see who was outside and for how long. Kids will be home soom. Get to greet them and ask about my day. Maybe let them run around back while I work. Tunes in background. WFH forever..congrats.
Rare, but hate to see it.
https://patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/s/htrmz/haddon-township-girl-12-dies-after-testing-positive-for-covid?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert
ChiFi,
Chiller! That scared the beejezus out of all of us as kids! The young ones here have no idea what that link is about.
Bystander,
You lived your life already. Could you imagine if you WFH in your 20’s and 30’s? You would have missed out on life big time.
At the end of the day, you hate your company and co-workers. No surprise you don’t enjoy being there.
Fast: Chiller was great! Channel 11 on Saturday night!
I could be wrong, but I assumed grim was referring to a poster here circa 2006-2007, who posted in a bit of broken English and would always refer to Case-Chiller…
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 1:20 pm
Fast: Chiller was great! Channel 11 on Saturday night!
I am 8 years older than you dipsh&t. I would have missed dipping my pen in company ink. for sure. Rest of the adult high school paegentry..f it. Too many slick talkers, fancy dressers and busllshit artists talking big to mgt, not doing much.
3b,
Tune in rotation..for Blumpy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOGMRnKl5co
Pumps: I try to school you again, and yet again you are in complete denial, nothing but verbal diarrhea coming out of your mouth. Again, I ask you how can you possibly opine on WFH and corporate America and what many of us on this board do for a living? I have asked you this question repeatedly and yet you never respond, because you can’t.
You have even made comments that people should just suck up their crappy commutes and delayed trains, and spend their time people watching. You will say everything and anything in a desperate attempt that somehow your selfish opposition to WFH will somehow stop it. Creative destruction, just what you want; except for WFH.
Small, local banks appear to be cutting loans to builders. Real estate investors I know are getting more conservative. Biggest fear is high end of the market.
“[5 percent down loans a] recipe for failure. Maybe not this year, or the next, or the next, but one trip up when you are at full throttle can spell disaster.”
I’ll offer a differing view….
If the recent past has taught us anything it is that there are limited to no repercussions for bad personal financial behavior. I’m thinking of bailouts, extended foreclosure processes, and such from 2008 vintage but also recently….rent and mortgage forbearance, the unrelenting march to student debt forgiveness….
In this context overleverage is not irresponsible but desirable…specifically relating to home purchases these days provided that there is a large enough gap between the effective mortgage rate and returns elsewhere and that the borrower doesn’t take the funds not used for additional downpayment and just set them aflame (eg, buy a new two seater sports car convertible and a three week high end family vacation).
Run the numbers….even using just a 600k home the difference between five and twenty percent down is 90k…..the difference in monthly payments between the two using 3.5% and 30 years is $400, or about 5k annually.
That 90k sitting in the market earning 8% annually can cover the delta between the two mortgage amounts for 16 years….
Or, stated differently, the risk of a mortgage crippling anyone financially is the risk inherent in the payment associated with any substantive amount of principal, not in the amount of the payment delta between two different downpayment scenarios.
In a time of financial duress, particularly in a political environment that is specifically looking to bail such people out, you are much more in the driver’s seat being in possession of the 90k rather than not. You are liquid. The house keys are in your pocket. You have all options open.
I realize the above analysis is overly simplistic not taking into account different interest rates, PMI, deductibility, taxes, etc. but if someone wants to put pen to spreadsheet I’m pretty confident it will hold.
Timeless financial advice is so because it works, in this case “possession is 9/10ths of the law”.
In today’s environment I would argue it is more financially beneficial to be in possession of both a more highly levered house and excess personal liquidity.
Bystander: Thanks, great song, have not heard it in years. In my head now, but good tune. Reminded me of The Knack, some people don’t like them , but I do!
The whole face time crap is fading and has been fading for a while now, it’s are you getting the job/ project done.
Left: Accept I would say for a large portion of recent buyers they don’t have a whole lot of excess personal liquidity.
What have I said that has been completely wrong? Please tell me. I guarantee your company is not doing well if they are fishing for ways to stay afloat by cutting one time costs like real estate. They are the walking dead, you just don’t realize it yet.
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 1:31 pm
Pumps: I try to school you again, and yet again you are in complete denial, nothing but verbal diarrhea coming out of your mouth. Again, I ask you how can you possibly opine on WFH and corporate America and what many of us on this board do for a living? I have asked you this question repeatedly and yet you never respond, because you can’t.
Grim, any view on FIVN? Company, product, operations relative to competitors?
left,
Does it take into account a large flood that never happens in a disaster free area of the northeast? Or, A/c Unit going kaput in middle of August?
Keep telling yourself that.
Again, how do you create a great company where no one knows who each other are except from a zoom meeting? What kind of company culture is that? How do you move quickly in designating new projects or new directions for the company when everyone is remote? Just think about that, but you won’t. Instead you will come back at me as I’m a teacher, therefore I know nothing…okay, buddy…you believe that. Talk about disrespecting the profession over and over again.
“The whole face time crap is fading and has been fading for a while now, it’s are you getting the job/ project done.”
k12.com has had a mostly remote workforce since inception. Ask them.
I guess he has no life outside of work, no friends or any hobbies. Going into the office/school is all he has to “look forward to” each day. Sounds sad.
Pumps: Your last post can you answer any of those questions yourself? Have you ever had to do any of what you just stated? Can you provide examples? Can you also provide examples from various corporate areas where and how this is necessary? List 3 corporate areas and provide examples, use personal experiences where applicable.
Additionally, do you know people who work in corporate America ( away from your spouse)? Can you tell us their views on WFH? Interesting that we have never any of that from you in the last 18 months.
You what’s pathetic with Pump’s WFH argument.
I posit that collaboration has improved by leaps and bounds now that we are forced to use technology to make it happen. Gone is trying to memorize everything the project manager just dictated. Now you get those tasks laid out in a database with only those who need to know having access to the pertinent information. And you can look it up at any time. All of our meeting are recorded and easily accessed. The ability to mute those distracting you while you present is immeasurable. Pumps is clueless because he thinks teaching, where one person must check 20 to 30 individual student’s work is somehow related to how projects are completed in the corporate workplace. As usual, his lack of self-awareness precedes himself.
ChiFi, always appreciate your advice. You tend to be right and calming. May pick your brain about how to help me choose a college for my incredibly smart, but thoroughly clueless son.
Anyone here go the honors track at say a school which is more like a safety than a match or reach? He doesn’t want to kill himself. Nor does he need to. He’s following in the footsteps of his father.
“…regarding Cathie Wood’s ARKK and TSLA. If we do get a plunge lower, Wood’s forced sales will create a self-reinforcing drop in the remaining value of her holdings…”
Very funny, I was thinking the exact same thing last week….another old timer’s saying…”when you need to sell you sell what you can, not what you want…”
This strategy takes the volatility of her portfolio even higher….in her context TSLA is a conservative investment. As she trims this to keep the new, more speculative holdings expect even more whipsaws….
I’m up 50% on my short from yesterday in ARKK…usually with that kind of return in one day I close or at least take half off the table….keeping an eye on this one, if she can test 109 today (or even break through it and hold) I may actually double down….
Give me a break with this crap.
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 1:58 pm
Pumps: Your last post can you answer any of those questions yourself? Have you ever had to do any of what you just stated? Can you provide examples? Can you also provide examples from various corporate areas where and how this is necessary? List 3 corporate areas and provide examples, use personal experiences where applicable.
Most older workers are going to want to work from home. They hate their job and the people they work with.
Most people that enjoy where they work, want to go in. They like talking to people face to face. These are the people that make businesses go. You think go getters want to sit at home? Get real.
“Additionally, do you know people who work in corporate America ( away from your spouse)? Can you tell us their views on WFH? Interesting that we have never any of that from you in the last 18 months.”
Lib: Same with me, information is so much easier to gather now. For example, in the past furiously taking notes on something, now I have the power point deck that I can refer back to. Files neatly located in Teams files for various projects. It’s night and day over what it was. Another example, my wife was in visiting her mother this past Sunday, I had nothing special to do, so logged on and banged out a project. This week that’s out of the way , and I can do some personal activities I had planned, and have a lighter load this week. It’s the flexibility and the freedom, and dumping the crappy commute; I am not into people watching on the train.
So you are saying college is better off being taught online? Correct?
Libturd says:
September 29, 2021 at 2:00 pm
You what’s pathetic with Pump’s WFH argument.
I posit that collaboration has improved by leaps and bounds now that we are forced to use technology to make it happen. Gone is trying to memorize everything the project manager just dictated. Now you get those tasks laid out in a database with only those who need to know having access to the pertinent information. And you can look it up at any time. All of our meeting are recorded and easily accessed. The ability to mute those distracting you while you present is immeasurable. Pumps is clueless because he thinks teaching, where one person must check 20 to 30 individual student’s work is somehow related to how projects are completed in the corporate workplace. As usual, his lack of self-awareness precedes himself.
You guys really suck the life out of life. Yes, I just want to sit at home, and be sent electronic tasks to complete. Your idea of fun is sitting in your underwear all day completing check lists for some boss you never met before except through zoom. Sounds like so much fun.
Pumps: You are wrong again and continue to double down on your stupidity. As I have told you repeatedly over the last 18 months. My company along with others did numerous employee engagement surveys, and included demographics, age, years with company. The results disclosed it was overwhelmingly the Millenial demographic that wanted the flexibility of WFH. Away, from them it was still largely supported by the remaining demographics. So yet again you are wrong.
Pumps: And as well as sitting in our underwear we don’t shower. We don’t shower because we don’t have to sit on a stalled train people watching.
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3b/lib,
Go tell Ford they do not need this. It all can be done remotely.
Yes, I’m the one lost in the woods.
Btw, when covid pandemic ends, I guarantee most companies move to a more in person approach.
“We’re expanding the next generation of smart, connected, F-Series #ElectricVehicles with the all-new mega-site in Tennessee, called Blue Oval City — a future hive of technological innovation.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/fordtrucks/status/1442632243026014211
This was proven wrong. Why didn’t it happen earlier in the year during the massive sell off?
leftwing says:
September 29, 2021 at 2:11 pm
“…regarding Cathie Wood’s ARKK and TSLA. If we do get a plunge lower, Wood’s forced sales will create a self-reinforcing drop in the remaining value of her holdings…”
Pumps: Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, maybe it’s a hybrid or will be hybrid. What’s for sure is that you certainly don’t know. Can you opine what analysis/ research would go into this? Please cite specific items.
Can you tell me what your friends and family who work in corporate America feel about WFH, pros/ cons, love it hate it?
“Accept I would say for a large portion of recent buyers they don’t have a whole lot of excess personal liquidity.”
Agree. And then we are in the sphere of should you be buying anyway….
And in that case, especially, I would say the answer is a resounding ‘yes!’.
With literally nothing to lose beyond the three percent down and the ability to keep all the 33x levered upside why would you NOT take that trade?
Especially when the government is likely to bail you out anyway and if they don’t push the keys across the table, stop paying the mortgage obviously, and divert those amounts back to rent.
Heads i win, tails you lose….If I could get that deal in the stock market I would own half the Caribbean….
We are older, of a different generation where financial responsibility was expected and rewarded. Today’s world is exactly the opposite. Trade the market in front of you, not yesterday’s or tomorrow’s……
“Small, local banks appear to be cutting loans to builders. Real estate investors I know are getting more conservative. Biggest fear is high end of the market.”
Good insight. Some active traders I know are getting trimmed on margin as well……
Risk management is awakening from their slumber…….
Left: Agreed, except when factoring in the other expenses they may not be able to keep the bells in the area. One income goes, and it’s over. But then again, they can declare bankruptcy for the CC s etc, and with a bailout/ moratorium on foreclosure might still hold on.
Left: Your point on fiscal responsibility and pay your bills is spot on!
My brother-in-law is the only one that works remotely (Ernst & Young). He has no motivation to move up, and this is why he enjoys remote. He looks at it as taking advantage of the company.
Everyone else I know is not working remotely. They might get fridays off, but they are not working from home.
Does everyone want it? If they hate their company and their job, they are all for it. Others don’t say much. It’s not like we talk about it that much.
I’m being serious, I really don’t know many people that are working remotely. I know a lot of people too. Maybe, just pure coincidence.
3b says:
September 29, 2021 at 2:56 pm
Pumps: Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, maybe it’s a hybrid or will be hybrid. What’s for sure is that you certainly don’t know. Can you opine what analysis/ research would go into this? Please cite specific items.
Can you tell me what your friends and family who work in corporate America feel about WFH, pros/ cons, love it hate it?
Pumps: If your BIL thinks he is taking advantage of his company he is a fool, and if he’s not doing his job, he won’t last there. As well, you can be in an office all day and not work either.
As for the rest of your comment, and as I suspected away from two family members you don’t know anyone else in corporate America. So again, please stop commenting on how bad WFH is as there is really only one reason you hate and we know why. But understand this , WFH is not only not going to go away it will be growing. It’s creative destruction.
“This was proven wrong. Why didn’t it happen earlier in the year during the massive sell off?”
Sincerely, how can someone who purports to be a teacher be so bereft of intellectual curiosity?
And, how the fcuk do you ‘invest’ without even performing the bare minimum of due diligence or having even the most basic knowledge of markets?
Now, the direct answer to your question…SHE DID. Back in Feb she had major positions in AMZN, PYPL, and FB. She sold them into the Feb-Mar decline. There are zero of those stocks in her portfolio now…..
And as I specifically said to you, before you pissed away 25% of your money on YTD losses, she had also earlier moved sizable amounts of her capital into large cap pharma….go search my comments on here, they exist….those companies are ‘cash equivalents’ for her. Point being that provided even a larger buffer.
Despite all that cushion she declined 35% peak to trough in three months.
The most recent peak now is 130…..how far do you think the bottom will be without a cushion?
And companies in her portfolio that are even more volatile than what she held in Feb-Mar?
3b,
Yea, I don’t no anyone in corporate…sure.
Only people going fully remote are majority software engineers. Most of these people have social anxiety and don’t like being around people. Majority of people are not going full remote.
Maybe im wrong, and corporate is going all remote. I highly doubt it, but if it does, my ark strategy will make me filthy rich.
Pumps:
1. As I said I don’t believe you, simply because in 18 months you never mentioned it, not once
2 Only people going major remote are software engineers, again you are wrong. I can name multiple industries where firms are going either fully remote or hybrid.
3. Most software engineers have social anxiety. How do you know that? How many do you know that have social anxiety that you feel confident making a broad generalized statement like that? Lots of people in many industries have social anxiety.
4. You will be filthy rich. Maybe you will or you won’t, but one should not be so cocky.
Lefty,
Who pissed away 25% of their money? Im not a short term trader. I also have been dollar cost avg, so how did I lose 25% of my money?
Go ahead, short it. You might win now, but just as fast as it moves down, it can move just as quickly going up. Admit that you are gambling and not investing.
And I stand by my post to you. It was proven wrong. People said it would crash into nothing based on what you said in the original post I commented on. It did not. She survived it.
Grim please unmod.
Pumps:
1. I don’t know people in corporate, sure. You don’t otherwise you would have mentioned it at least once over the last 18 months.
2. The only industries going fully remote are software engineers. Wrong again, I know multiple industries where firms are going fully remote or hybrid. Second, I am not a software engineer and no little about it. But from what I know I could see that being an area where perhaps more office time might be required , as in multiple computer screens hardware , testing etc.
3. Most software engineers have social anxiety issues. How many do you know that gives you the confidence to make a broad and generalized statement like that. There are people from all walks of life in all industries who have social anxiety problems. I certainly am not qualified to make that statement about software engineers, but you think you are.
4. You will be filthy rich. Maybe you will or won’t, but you should not be so arrogant; it’s crtt unbecoming.
One last response because unlike 3b and others here I refuse to get sucked into the pointless, time consuming vortex of stupidity that is your mind…..
“Who pissed away 25% of their money? Im not a short term trader. I also have been dollar cost avg, so how did I lose 25% of my money?”
You do realize that it is mathematically impossible to DCA your way into a gain without a turnaround in the stock? And that despite any DCA any downward movement in the stock produces bigger losses for you? In other words – and I can’t believe I have to say this to a 41 year old man responsible for his family finances – you can only make money in a stock if it goes UP. Your online brokerage statement has a cost for your position and a p/l to date. You are down despite your DCA fantasy. What percentage?
“Go ahead, short it. You might win now, but just as fast as it moves down, it can move just as quickly going up. Admit that you are gambling and not investing.”
I have a well researched investment thesis on her business and have diligenced the majority of her individual holdings by size. You state “it can move up or down”. Which one of us is investing and which one of us is gambling?
“And I stand by my post to you. It was proven wrong. People said it would crash into nothing based on what you said in the original post I commented on. It did not. She survived it.”
Ahhh, the last respite of your foolishness – the straw man argument. I never said it would go zero. In fact I will say it here….it most definitively will not. But as always the only intellectual debate in which you can participate is when you take the point to such a ridiculous extreme that it is tautological.
I’ve asked here before, do you have a chart on the wall you refer to each morning showing you how to tie your shoes? Or loafers?
Left: You are right I do get sucked in. It’s just infuriating and insulting how he opines on subjects/ topics he knows nothing about, and does so for his own selfish reasons.
Grim really needs an ignore button. Want to go in halves with me?
Why teachers are hated, and rightfully so:
4. You will be filthy rich. Maybe you will or won’t, but you should not be so arrogant; it’s crtt unbecoming.
LW,
I’ll go half on an eject button.
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“left, Does it take into account a large flood that never happens in a disaster free area of the northeast? Or, A/c Unit going kaput in middle of August?”
Bystander, agree….but isn’t that analogous to people buying new homes c. 2007 and then not having the money to even acquire basic furnishings (remember that, lol).
Point being, when stupid becomes the market, stupid becomes TBTF and gets let off the hook.
Phoenix, lol
Ordered my free PSEG nest thermostat.
The End Is Nigh (Transitory Inflation Edition):
Dollar Tree to Sell More Items Above $1 as Costs Rise
Stu: I forgot….. is the puckhead a senior or junior?
Libturd says:
September 29, 2021 at 2:00 pm
ChiFi, always appreciate your advice. You tend to be right and calming. May pick your brain about how to help me choose a college for my incredibly smart, but thoroughly clueless son.
Anyone here go the honors track at say a school which is more like a safety than a match or reach? He doesn’t want to kill himself. Nor does he need to. He’s following in the footsteps of his father.
Grim: just ordered mine too.
Junior
Five Dollar Tree to Sell More Items Above $1 as Costs Rise
Chi,
For a minute I thought you called him a phuckhead.
Grim,
Did you get the free light bulbs and smart multi-outlets too?
I got the Honeywell T-5s for free two years ago from them. One for the multi and one for the primary.
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chicagofinance says:
September 29, 2021 at 12:55 pm
“…as fcuked as we are, we still crush the crap out of the rest of the world. I would liken the U.S. as a nation to California. Cali could not be any worsely mismanaged…”
I agree with all of this, and as you indicate with the Cali analogy, we’re now more the ‘least dirty shirt’, and less the “shining city on a hill”. Two points to illustrate this: First, while it’s clear that people still want to come to this country, I suspect for many (most?) the primary lure is govt assistance rather than simply the opportunity to work hard and make one’s own success. And second, and for the first time in my lifetime, I have serious doubts as to the ability of our military to protect and defend American citizens, interests and allies anywhere in the world — see Afghanistan, Taiwan, Korea, etc…
Cali is slowly drying to a withering husk.
Water management will define this place going forward.
I think if we were attacked by a military as we were in WWII by Japan, we would still be a mean fighting machine. Not so much when we are fighting unnecessary wars.
I disagree that immigrants come here for public assistance. Just drive by your local Home Depot for proof of otherwise.
No I missed those.
“…American citizens, interests and allies anywhere in the world..”
American interests. I love that term.
Joyce,
Agreed.
Well 3 weeks in and our local school has a covid outbreak. Neighborhood Karen the anti-vaxxer’s kid has it too. I gather she will get it as well since they are now quarantined. Hope their life insurance is paid up.
Again, you have a short term mentality to the market, which is fine, but understand this before you mock me.
I am taking a long term approach to this investment. I am not trying to time the market, hence, I use a dollar cost avg approach to said investment. I am betting that in 10 years, the trends that she is attacking are going to make a lot of money. So i put my monthly investment that I hope to collect on some day in the future. You see how that works?
I don’t have a problem with you, might not always agree with you, but i have no problem with you. Why you have to belittle my intelligence is beyond me. I’m not the enemy, dude.
““Who pissed away 25% of their money? Im not a short term trader. I also have been dollar cost avg, so how did I lose 25% of my money?”
You do realize that it is mathematically impossible to DCA your way into a gain without a turnaround in the stock? And that despite any DCA any downward movement in the stock produces bigger losses for you? In other words – and I can’t believe I have to say this to a 41 year old man responsible for his family finances – you can only make money in a stock if it goes UP. Your online brokerage statement has a cost for your position and a p/l to date. You are down despite your DCA fantasy. What percentage?”
I know ark will not make me filthy rich. I was just pointing out (maybe mocking) what i will gain if offices go extinct and are replaced with the zoom trends as all work remotely. I know it has no shot in hell, but if it does, I will be benefit immensely.
4. You will be filthy rich. Maybe you will or won’t, but you should not be so arrogant; it’s crtt unbecoming.
Hybrid is not remote. Don’t get it confused. Hybrid is the future, remote sure as hell is not.
2. The only industries going fully remote are software engineers. Wrong again, I know multiple industries where firms are going fully remote or hybrid. Second, I am not a software engineer and no little about it. But from what I know I could see that being an area where perhaps more office time might be required , as in multiple computer screens hardware , testing etc.
I honestly can’t figure out if you are mocking me or being serious.
1. I don’t know people in corporate, sure. You don’t otherwise you would have mentioned it at least once over the last 18 months.
Fair point. But the nature of the work attracts a lot of these special type individuals.
3. Most software engineers have social anxiety issues. How many do you know that gives you the confidence to make a broad and generalized statement like that. There are people from all walks of life in all industries who have social anxiety problems. I certainly am not qualified to make that statement about software engineers, but you think you are.
Pumps: I am not mocking you , I am saying I don’t believe you. Away from the two previously mentioned exceptions, you don’t know anyone working in corporate America.
In your second post you acknowledge my comment on Software engineers, then contradict yourself that the industry tends to attract those “ special type” of people.
PSEG nest nice.
I was able to get two free Echobees from JCP&L thanks to a tip here. I have saved 20 % on my cooling bills so far according to their data and my bills. It would be even more if I did not give the App to my wife. She likes it freezing…I don’t..
I did have to rewire one for five wire instead of four. No bigge if you cable run has extra lines and you are man enough to open up the furnace and wire it up correctly.
Pumps: Hybrid is not remote? Obvious you don’t know what the term means I’m the corporate world, you know the world you lied about working in.
Enjoy all of your free thermostats thanks to Phoenix.
I’ve got your six.
Once upon a time, utilities used to be GROWTH stocks.
And then they were regulated.
As a result, we have essentially been using the same technology to deliver power for 100 years.
https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap/status/1443358263391698944?s=21
Down at our park picking my son up from soccer practice. Over on the tennis courts these pickle ball people are fanatics they are out here every night of the week.
Sport is getting incredibly popular. Even moreso than vanlife.
TY on Nests whoever posted. Got em.
I think it’s a great use for the tennis courts. There is hardly any tennis, but seven nights a week of pickle ball…Might as well be a ping pong palace…
Pumps “utilities used to be GROWTH stocks” “And then they were regulated”
Before Joe and Cathy take a dirt nap are they going to solve this riddle?
There needs to be about 8 Billion solar panels built and deployed locally to power the USA during the day. Then at night either storage that has not been engineered or we turn off the lights…
BTW 85% of the modules manufactured and very dirty processing happens outside our borders.
Can I bet on dirt nap? Is there a bookie in the UK that will take that action?
Miami must contend, too, with lingering anti-Florida snobbery. The New York media investor Strauss Zelnick has told people, “I thought the whole reason we made lots of money was so we wouldn’t have to live in Florida.” And a New York hedge-fund executive who hasn’t moved suggested that the Delta-variant surge — and the attendant images of overrun ICUs — has dinged Miami’s glossy rebrand: “It doesn’t make it as attractive as it was six months ago, when a lot of my friends were saying, ‘It’s great down here, it’s paradise, it’s a great place to raise kids.’ They’re not trashing their decision now, but it’s weird down in Florida. There’s a chaos quality.”
On the ground in Miami, though, zeal reigns. “In the future, Miami is going to be the most important place to be for three or four months a year,” Bryan Goldberg told me with the full-blown fervor of a convert. “From December through March, it’s going to be the place to be, globally, for decades to come. I think that every ambitious business-person has to have a Miami strategy from this day forward for the rest of their lives.”
RE: ” we still crush the crap out of the rest of the world”
Last two or perhaps three previous centuries the British thought the same thing too….It’s really no different now.
Anecdotal on growth. Millennials will save US housing?? I’ll give a tale here…….Just about everybody who wants to leave the Chinese countryside has already left, demand has fallen off the proverbial cliff. The entire population of France could fit into empty Chinese apartments.
BTW the way the solution in China to Evergrande is creative distraction via destruction. 1,300 real estate projects in more than 280 Chinese cities. They are now leveling the overcapacity of unsold apartments with dynamite.
Not gonna end well there and there is no avoiding the contagion.
Pumps – refer back to Grim on Miami..
Anecdotal – Been there done it in Miami, Crockett and Tubs it is not..
Miami? Crocket and Tubbs?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FdRA5Q5-dgU
Did somebody say all cash offers?
In the pandemic-fueled housing frenzy, first-time buyers can’t compete.
Take Sarah and Koty Chapman, suburban Nashville restaurant workers in their 20s who started this year full of hope, with a baby on the way and plans for a house of their own.
They lost a dozen bidding wars for homes under $300,000 — up against mortgage borrowers with big down payments, telecommuters with out-of-state salaries and Wall Street investors skipping the line by paying cash. The Chapmans’ daughter was born in April and they’re stuck right where they started, in a rental. Determination has given way to resignation.
“Am I even going to be able to live in my own community?” said Sarah Chapman. “I don’t think it’s fair.”
Record price gains and fevered competition are crushing
prospects for U.S. homeownership, a key driver of middle-class wealth. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of existing-home sales in August, the lowest share since January 2019 and below the five-year average of 32%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The share of government-backed mortgages often used for purchases by young people has also plunged since the start of the pandemic.
It’s a stark example of America’s uneven economic recovery. Soaring real estate values have gifted homeowners with record equity, with an average increase of more than $50,000 per mortgage in the past year, according to CoreLogic. But record-low borrowing costs, which should have made housing more affordable for young renters and minority groups historically left out of ownership, instead drove prices higher and pushed them even further behind.
“It’s extraordinarily hard to become a homeowner for a range of reasons, most significantly that prices have gone skyward,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “The next shoe to fall is higher mortgage rates. As soon as that happens — and it will — homes are going to be completely out of financial reach.”
n the latest sign of the market’s heat, a report Tuesday showed that prices for U.S. single-family homes surged 19.7% in July from a year earlier, the biggest jump in more than 30 years.
Financing is one of the key issues putting first-time buyers at a disadvantage. Sellers have their pick of offers and are choosing cash purchasers or mortgage borrowers with conventional financing who can waive inspections and make up the gap if the lender’s appraisal falls short.
Meanwhile, the share of purchase mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration — a key lending source for young people, low-income Americans and minorities — has dropped to the lowest level since at least 2012, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute. It fell to 18% in June from 23% in March 2020, when lockdowns began.
Lenders haven’t significantly toughened standards during the pandemic. Buyers with low credit scores and little savings can purchase a home with an FHA or government-backed veteran loan. But even now that housing demand has moved from unbelievably hot to merely hot, sellers are still far more likely to choose someone else.
“The most important factor isn’t whether or not you can get a mortgage, it’s whether or not you can win a bidding war,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for listing site Realtor.com.
Before the Chapmans could even get in the ring, the pandemic almost knocked them out of the suburban Nashville housing market. In late March 2020, she lost her job as a server and he, as a chef. But they were back at work two months later and spent the rest of the year building up their credit scores by keeping up with bills and paying off debt.
Armed with an FHA mortgage, the couple made their first offer in January and lost. They got to work telling their story of hope in heartfelt letters to sellers, and still, only rejection. One house they would have financed with a $1,500-a-month mortgage was purchased instead by a landlord now renting it out for $1,900, Sarah Chapman said.
They decided to take a break after their daughter, Amelia, was born. Sarah Chapman is in college finishing her bachelor’s degree in social work, and hopes to get a master’s to build up her income.
“If the market crashes,” she said, “we’re going in.”
Local buyers are getting priced out in relatively affordable cities everywhere, from Charlotte, North Carolina, to Riverside, California, where bargain hunters in the age of remote work are piling in. Investors and second-home buyers are flooding into hot markets, accounting for 41% of all sales in Phoenix, 36% in Las Vegas and 34% in Tampa, Florida, according to John Burns Real Estate.
In Denver, where the median home price is approaching $600,000, affordable listings disappear fast.
A seller last spring got 12 offers on a four-bedroom home listed for $425,000. The highest bidder offered to pay $480,000 and Victoria Macaskill, broker for Denver Homes, said she advised the seller to take it even though the buyer had an FHA loan. Such borrowers are seen as risky because with lower incomes and minimum down payments of just 3.5%, their financing is more apt to fall apart.
The appraisal ordered by the lender on the Denver home came in well below the contract price and the deal collapsed. The seller relisted it and it sold in April for $485,000 to a buyer with conventional financing, Macaskill said.
Kyle McDevitt, a 29-year-old former Marine approved for a zero-down Department of Veterans Affairs mortgage, found a workaround.
He graduated last year with a computer-science degree and found a job in the aerospace industry in Denver. He put in 15 home offers, competing each time with more than 10 other bidders, he said.
Then he tried a new strategy to win a rigged game: transforming himself into a cash buyer. To do that, McDevitt used Accept.Inc., one of a new crop of mortgage startups that front money for purchases for borrowers they’ve underwritten, only completing the financing after the sale.
In June, he got into one last heated battle. His $445,000 offer was $25,000 short of the highest. But his was cash — helping him close the deal faster — and the top bidder had a mortgage.
“Without the ability to have that cash offer,” McDevitt said, “I’d probably still be looking.”
Anecdata regarding commute to NYC…
– significantly more commuters on my bus this morning; when my specific run resumed in mid-Aug there were probably 4-5 people on the bus; probably 20-25 today
– prior to mid-Aug when I was taking the train, commuter profile skewed very heavily to construction workers and medical personnel; on the bus now seeing far more white collar commuters
– white collar commuters skewed heavily towards older (45-50+); I suspect those of us that have been commuting for a very long time are simply more willing to resume than younger workers
The Fintech startup in the article above is out of Denver. accept.inc It’s one of many trying to hone in bidding wars with all cash bids. They recently landed about 80 million from a fin tech investor founded by an ex Goldman alumni as well as some other startup investors SignalFire, Y Combinator, and DN Capital.
This so called iLender space other names are Offerpad, Opendoor, and Zillow cash to buy homes. They don’t make money on the house price, they make it on mortgage origination and title, so they actually buy the house, and then sell it back to the homebuyer they have a contract with. It’s title is transferred later I gather after a traditional mortgage is setup. I have to wonder what the mortgage interest rate actually is and if they will be bundling these mortgages and selling them to investors. Something to keep an eye on for sure, because it can definitely change the dynamics of real estate prices.
re: commute to NYC
Numbers are not ticking up…
NYC Subway..
Tuesday, 9/28/21 2,928,629 -51.3% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
Monday, 9/27/21 2,876,531 -50.1% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
LIRR
Tuesday, 9/28/21 141,200 -51% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
Monday, 9/27/21 146,200 -50% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
Metro-North Railroad
Tuesday, 9/28/21 118,300 -55% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
Monday, 9/27/21 121,500 -54% Change From Pre-Pandemic Equivalent Day
NJ Transit does not publish their data but you can assume it’ still down -50%.
Just look at the parking lots. We still pay for our permit in Glen Ridge since the waiting lists to get a spot were two to three years long in these parts. These lots are always less than 1/4 full when I drive by.
Also,
I’ve never understood why home sellers are so favorable to all cash buyers. With the incredibly lenient underwriting standards, it’s nearly impossible not to qualify for a million dollar loan. Personally, I’m taking 25K and a few extra forms to deal with at the closing rather than taking the haircut. Heck, most buyers in NJ are legitimately prequalified.
Lib – I find it almost astonishingly stupid for someone to NOT wait a month for a mortgage closing and and $25,000?
Here is some interesting analysis on the Chamath’s SPAC opendoor which is a leader in the iLender space with Zillow and Redfin etc.
If you look at the financials chart they are projecting selling 37,000 homes in two years. Total profit is projected at only $9 million dollars…There is a huge amount of risk for $9 million in profits.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455597-not-opening-our-wallet-for-opendoor
Lib,
Completely agree. I never understood it either. Unless you absolutely have be out due to other circumstances, why leave big money on table?
My train parking lot, has been 3 to 5 cars a day, last two weeks ago it’s been about 8 cars. I took the train to Montvale to meet my wife 2 weeks ago in the evening , got the 5:35 train in my town going north to Montvale, and the train was almost empty.
Pumps wow, that’s quite a statement
“Only people going fully remote are majority software engineers. Most of these people have social anxiety and don’t like being around people. Majority of people are not going full remote.”
As someone in the industry I can assure this is certainly not the case. Those developers and engineers with social anxiety were not going into the office before the pandemic and it was a very small minority. I used to work with a guy who was remote, he’d come in 1 day per week maybe, more like every other week and he’d get to the office at 5 or 6 in the morning and leave after lunch, meet who ever he needed to meet with, etc. That was a rare case, you occasionally find some people with Aspergers but even that was not that common, most people working in software are fairly normal. The Aspergers guys and people like the crazy remote worker(and he was a strange dude, he lived off the grid somewhere remote maybe PA or western jersey, you never got too many details except when it was hot he had no AC which prompted the question why, his off grid setup couldn’t handle it) were the most productive people and also the least compensated vs. what they brought to the table. The reason these people are drawn to this profession is because for a long time it was the only field where remote work was easily obtained or you could keep a job without having to communicate with people on a regular basis. I’d say 90-95% are totally normal people, lots of nerds, lots of foreigners, but socially speaking all pretty normal, mores0 than the bankers and traders I’ve encountered. A lot of those people are basically sociopaths incapable of human relationships that are not transactional.
WFH is interesting because some folks it works for, these are the people who know what they need to do with a minimum of coaching. For those still developing their skills who require a lot of coaching like college hire’s, under performers, or those transitioning to a new role WFH is a big challenge. I’ve seen both cases employees who are just getting it done who require little intervention and those who are struggling. For those struggling in person works better, trying to help them remotely is more difficult and more time consuming for the manager than it would be in the office where you can very easily course correct them multiple times during the day and it’s easier to give feedback without offending the person. This is why hybrid is likely the future, there are times when it helps to have people face to face. I know people who went full remote and relocated to the sunbelt, bought a house on a golf course, etc. I think it’s a mistake but to each his own, I can’t imagine it will be good for their careers but the lure of a new big cheap home with all the amenities vs. what was available in the NYC suburban market was too much. They couldn’t stomach 1m for a sh*tbox with a 20k tax bill.
So Chamath dumped TESLA…Did he call Pumps and Cathy first?
Seems he has rotated to new ventures linked to distributed energy utilities. But don’t they claim TESLA is in the “distributed energy business”..
They must be all driving, route 80 is getting back to its old self. 50 minute drive 3 weeks ago is now well over an 1hr.
What’s the numbers for the tolls. I’m sure a lot of people are avoiding public transit due to the pandemic. I’m sure a lot of offices are still closed due to the pandemic. Companies don’t want to plan for going back (takes a bunch of planning to bring everyone back to office during a pandemic….litigation etc) when there is a chance it will pick up and force them home again. Just not worth it.
That’s my two cents.
Juice Box says:
September 30, 2021 at 9:13 am
re: commute to NYC
Numbers are not ticking up…
I’m just saying, most of the people that were working remote before the pandemic were software engineers and developers, and a lot of them had social issues. I’m not saying all, but it was enough to throw out a generalization. They don’t like being around people. That’s how they can code at home for 24 hrs straight, they are not normal.
Hybrid is most likely the future….friday’s at home.
JCer says:
September 30, 2021 at 9:46 am
Pumps wow, that’s quite a statement
“Only people going fully remote are majority software engineers. Most of these people have social anxiety and don’t like being around people. Majority of people are not going full remote.”
Guy is a gambler. Prob seeking out huge upside plays.
Juice Box says:
September 30, 2021 at 9:52 am
So Chamath dumped TESLA…Did he call Pumps and Cathy first?
Seems he has rotated to new ventures linked to distributed energy utilities. But don’t they claim TESLA is in the “distributed energy business”..
Trick driving to Manhattan? Maybe or not driving into city sure..
It’s expensive but hey no covid and no NJ Transit and Subway to deal with.
Latest numbers listed on the PA Website for Lincoln tunnel don’t exactly show huge change pre-pandemic cars. There are more but it’s only a few thousand a day for the Lincoln Tunnel and less than 2019 for the Holland Tunnel..
July 2021 show 1,409,921 cars.
July 2020 show 989,456 cars
July 2019 was 1.2 million cars Pre-Pademic
Holland Tunnel similar pattern
July 2021 show 1,201,737 cars
July 2020 show 1 ,012,757 cars
July 2019 show 1,277,907 cars
“90-95% are totally normal people, lots of nerds, lots of foreigners, but socially speaking all pretty normal, mores0 than the bankers and traders I’ve encountered. A lot of those people are basically sociopaths incapable of human relationships that are not transactional.”
Spot on as usual JCer. Most IT folks are well-grounded, fact-driven and accomodative (to a point). Idian SEs are often very reserved/religious/non-combative. Many IT managers I worked with still liked getting hands dirty in dev. I have run into very few social anxiety folks, some maybe on spectrum but not rude or dismissive. Front office IT might be exception as the arrogance and importance seems to grow being surrounded by trading systems. They were awkward as they constantly act like you are sh&t on their shoe and won’t do a damn thing to accomodate downstrean.
I do not cross the river, but close.
Jcer: Good analysis. I would add however, a lot of firms in addition to going remote or hybrid as we know is a combination of remote and in the office, there is the whole geographically agnostic concept that many firms in corporate America are embracing. So for example, you have one specific team , but the members of that team are dispersed in multiple geographic locations, the need to be in an office is simply not there, as the team is spread out. Even if everyone went back to their respective offices when they need to meet as a group it’s via Zoom. It is a struggle for the younger new hires in the beginning, but some firms are addressing that by having on site training in the office, and then back to remote this is being spread out over months. Away from the learning challenges, the young people have no issue with learning the technology, they are a generation that has grown up with it I also know a few groups that get together on their free time as they all live in Hoboken. It’s an opportunity to share job tips and socialize. It’s evolving, and like anything new there are challenges, but it’s where the work world is going.
pumps, I was commenting straight up I know people both in software and not in software but very personable people who have gone 100% remote and have moved away. So I don’t think your statement is accurate obviously those who were remote before will be remote in the future but the pool of 100% remote workers is expanding, the genie will not be put back into the bottle. I’d venture to say most companies will half their office space in the next decade. 9 to 5 5 days a week is mostly dead.
Pumps – He was the biggest pumper outside of Cathy for TESLA, he was talking huge growth a few months back on CNBC…. Sure taking profits is smart, we all need to do that from time to time..
“Don’t sell a share” back when it was $808….I bet he did not unload when it dropped to $563…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chamath-palihapitiya-tesla-stock-price-target-elon-musk-net-worth-2021-1
Pumps: Friday’s at home? That’s so old at this point. Keep living in denial, and keep commenting on corporate America, when you only know 2 people that work in corporate America. That’s my reminder to you for the day. You can respond of course , but I will ignore you for the rest of today to give the board a break from you.
I hate that guy. Complete windbag…… he stepped in sh!t early in his life, and has spent the rest of the time being a silver-spoon iconoclast. Narcissistic personality disorder.
Juice Box says:
September 30, 2021 at 10:12 am
Pumps – He was the biggest pumper outside of Cathy for TESLA, he was talking huge growth a few months back on CNBC…. Sure taking profits is smart, we all need to do that from time to time..
“Don’t sell a share” back when it was $808….I bet he did not unload when it dropped to $563…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chamath-palihapitiya-tesla-stock-price-target-elon-musk-net-worth-2021-1
I’ve never understood why home sellers are so favorable to all cash buyers. With the incredibly lenient underwriting standards, it’s nearly impossible not to qualify for a million dollar loan.
The times I’ve seen it first hand, where it’s made real sense, had to do with a chain of contingent sales (closings really), and it’s usually most beneficial to the seller in the middle. Things like staging a big family move along with needing proceeds of the sale to be able to close on the purchase (not being able to qual on a lower down payment, etc). Not that it isn’t all cash at closing, but a last minute snag in that arrangement, is challenging to navigate.
I’ve also seen scenarios where a buyer ran into issues with qualification (oops, forgot about that huge f*cking debt), and a whole chain of contingencies sales fell apart – granted, the market today is hot enough that it’s not a challenge right now, but in a slower market, losing a buyer could mean months delay for multiple parties.
“The Fintech startup in the article above is out of Denver. accept.inc It’s one of many trying to hone in bidding wars with all cash bids.”
Outstanding business idea. But may be a flash in the plan once this current cycle of exuberance passes.
“I find it almost astonishingly stupid for someone to NOT wait a month for a mortgage closing and and $25,000?.”
“Unless you absolutely have be out due to other circumstances, why leave big money on table?”
Statement by the seller on the state of the real estate market and their view of the actual value of their home therein?
3b, I get it but I’m going to agree with pumps on this. People are analog creatures, a lot can be done remotely, especially for seasoned professionals but for those developing I don’t see slack, or teams, or zoom replacing real in office mentorship and experience. It’s like the remote schooling for children, for some kids it works for many others it simply does not. The company that eschews a physical presence and does not hire smart young people and build a culture will be at a distinct disadvantage, that’s not to say every need be in the office but for a lot of these folks some time in the office is needed and positive. Some folks established in their careers will go 100% remote and that isn’t an issue. I’ve heard of this back in the office still meeting via Zoom, it’s dumb full stop, I used to hate getting on phone calls when all the participants were sitting in the same damn building, video conferencing this way makes even less sense, get in a room and those at home or in another office can be on the phone.
Bystander, the front office guys are basically imprinted by the self-important sociopaths they work for. The reason they come off that way is because of the lunatics they support, it’s not an easy job, they need to keep the revenue producers happy, they are paid better and paid based on how well their users do. The best thing they can have happen is for a big revenue producer tell their management how important they are and how they helped the business make revenue. They don’t give fcuk about downstream because it means nothing to their bottom line, and if they need to articulate something like infrastructure enhancements or non-functional changes to their business owners good luck. The technical debt in the front office space can be astounding because you never get a chance to clean anything up, when I worked on front office trading we had 64 branches to code for our blotter each desk having their own branch because they all demanded features and bug fixes and to only have changes made when they needed them so no chance to clean anything up, no one stood up to the users and forced much needed clean up and feature freezes. I understood from the user perspective as bugs were constantly being introduced they never wanted upgrades unless it was addressing a problem or bringing wanted/needed features.
Yellen getting run over in House testimony…..
You can actually see the cognitive dissonance on her face….prior role she was the top of the heap, game winning QB calling the shots. Here, she’s a waterboy, getting bitch slapped by everyone…..can’t be pleasant. LOL.
“in a slower market,”
Like that ever happens anymore.
I am relatively convinced that this latest pop in housing prices has to do primarily with three things.
1) The pandemic living diaspora from city to suburb.
2) The government sending every family 10K or more in checks.
3) The lack of spending during 2020 leaving people with REAL savings for a change.
These tailwinds are reversing. In April, many of these families are going to be writing a check to Uncle Sam for 3 to 6K to pay back on the advance. The diaspora is over. And saving? What’s that? You can’t even buy anything of value anymore between the chip shortage and now the backup in our ports.
What I mean by chain of closings:
1) First time homebuyer – currently a renter
2) Move up homeowner – selling to buy a larger home
3) Retiree – selling to move to their retirement home (already owned, no cash issues, etc)
It’s #2 who is in the position to get screwed. Retirees, no problem, pack up and move, leave the house vacant, whatever, they just want it done. #1 – First timer, maybe low DP, spotty credit history, overreaching. Lying about everything, got money from parents and tried to hide it, etc etc etc.
#2 – Has to pack up an entire house, family, dog, 15 years of crap. They likely can’t swing two mortgages, or maybe even qualify. Maybe they are sitting on big equity, but don’t necessarily have the big income numbers to justify a second large mortgage with smaller dp.
It’s the #2 in this scenario, that’s got the most to gain from a smooth closing process.
Two home sales are now highly dependent on that first buyer qualifying and closing without roadblocks.
Jcer: I have acknowledged that, I am saying that steps are being taken to address it, and eventually those new hires will be able to function like the seasoned people, and the process will continue for the next new batch of hires. The office won’t go away entirely, but the days of every one sitting in an office 5 days a week for the traditional 9 to 5 will become a thing of the past. The difference between you and I having this conversation is twofold , first we are both in corporate America, and as such can have a reasonable back and forth discussion on WFH and the pros/ cons . Pumps is a teacher, and has zero experience in the corporate world and what functions people preform. He makes broad generalized statements like software engineers have social anxiety. And with two exceptions he does not know anyone working in corporate America. Second, always his pontificating on the evils of WFH is based purely on selfish reasons as the need for less or commercial real estate for companies could negatively impact him personally. It’s a pure selfishness on his part.
Why make it more complicated than it is. Keep it simple. You had millions of millennials enter the market. When more buyers enter the market, what happens to the price? Especially when there is not enough supply to meet said demand?
People overcomplicate analysis. They really do. Too smart for their own good.
Libturd says:
September 30, 2021 at 10:50 am
“in a slower market,”
Like that ever happens anymore.
I am relatively convinced that this latest pop in housing prices has to do primarily with three things.
1) The pandemic living diaspora from city to suburb.
2) The government sending every family 10K or more in checks.
3) The lack of spending during 2020 leaving people with REAL savings for a change.
These tailwinds are reversing. In April, many of these families are going to be writing a check to Uncle Sam for 3 to 6K to pay back on the advance. The diaspora is over. And saving? What’s that? You can’t even buy anything of value anymore between the chip shortage and now the backup in our ports.
3b,
Do you understand that culture at a company matters? You worked at GS, you of all people should know this. You can’t run a competitive company where no one has met in person and built relationships. It’s a dead end for any company that uses this approach. They will not last long.
In person relationships matter, whether you realize it or not. Company culture is a competitive edge.
3b, I hear you. I also have been fully remote before and have been in an environment where my boss was literally in a different country and I was managing a team of developers who reported to me on the other side of the country in addition to the resources in India who were dotted line so geographically diverse teams are nothing new for me. We still found we needed to travel to the offices to show our faces, it can work but it isn’t as smooth as people imagine. Business as usual was not a problem, people knew what to do, how to do it, and produced a lot of output but crisis management was more challenging and required flying people around to really get things resolved, that and onboarding/offboarding(lay-offs/firings) that were tricky in the geographically distributed model.
Lots of the younger folks have taken pretty well to platforms like Slack and Teams, with chat-based workflows, in being able to navigate WFH. I’m talking about in lieu of emails, voice calls, etc. We’ve gone from:
Let’s all go to the conference room and have a meeting!
To:
Hey these Zoom calls are cool!
To:
That meeting really should have been an email.
To:
You wrote a whole email? Why didn’t you just send a note on Slack?
As such, I feel like some of the younger folks have had an easier time building communities and engaging leveraging more digital channels. You see it with the very broad adoption of platforms like Facebook Workplace. See lots of older folks not understanding the point, or complaining about having another thing to do (I don’t even use facebook at home, why the hell would I use it at work).
Far more of a challenge for some of the older folks that aren’t so digitally savvy, or have a high preference for memos and conference rooms.
Lots of companies are adopting Amazon style meeting formats (meaning no meetings at all). If you want a meeting, you need to write a brief, 4 pages or so, the first 15m spent reading the brief, the next 15, have the meeting. Done. No f*cking powerpoint.
Lots of older folks also having serious issues trying to adapt to this no-meetings, just get shit done, culture.
Y’all talking about new employees having challenges onboarding or succeeding in a remote environment. You want to know who is going to really suffer? Older career middle managers who complain about adopting new technologies. When your job was predicated on watching over a group of cubicles and holding conference-room meetings every other day, probably should be scared.
Grim: I agree on your analysis of the younger generations to all the technology updates. Where it becomes an issue is imparting our knowledge on the business to them. But as I noted that is being addressed in a number of different ways.
pumps it is more complicated than that and Lib makes good points. People were not spending so they could divert that money to housing. I don’t know how that felt because I lost so much rental income it more than made up from lack of spending. But the reality is all the city people I knew felt an urgent need to move, kids in an apartment, even very small ones became untenable in lockdown, that is what drove some of the madness. I knew people who rented homes in random remote places just to get out while they home shopped. I know others still shopping because of the insane prices and bidding wars and others who gave up went remote and moved to cheaper locales. You’ve got a once in a lifetime confluence of factors, as things revert to a more normal circumstance how much will hold? It is not simply a demographic situation, that would have brought a healthy market as opposed to what we are seeing.
Jcer: In your specific industry face time may still be required, but in others that need is no longer there.
Grim technology isn’t the point, formal meetings are cr@p, as are PowerPoints can’t stand that sh*t used to spend so much time on those to present to senior management. Kids are more used to digital interaction because they are growing up with it to their detriment. It is immensely harmful and enshrining it into the workplace will have deleterious effects on mental health and overall wellbeing, we are analog creatures. As for meeting that could have been handled in email or on slack, that is indicative of work where you are shoveling sh*t, or business as usual. That stuff is easily done remote, it’s easily done almost anywhere, it’s the crisis, the big problem, or the next big thing you are doing that benefits from face time.
Also office politics are not going away it will just be harder to get a read on the situation and the new kids have no clue how to operate in that kind of environment. I know from my own experience I would have had more career success earlier in my career if I understood how to play the politics starting out.
Jcer,
Prices can’t go up unless demand outweighs supply. It’s as simple as that.
We had low rates and low prices for years, but the millennials were not buying last decade. They were not in position to, and didn’t want to. 30 is the new 20. They were living it up in the city or saving money living in their parents house. Now all these individuals enter the market at once, with every year adding millions of more millennial buyers, and you don’t think this is the source the current runup in housing market? You really think 10,000 extra dollars from the govt is fueling the housing market? No way. The source is the millennials buyer who was not in the market a couple of years ago. They are transforming the market with their demand.
Leftwing , agree currently had several offers on a rental property. The cash offer was 80k less. Went with the buyer needing financing as trying to move out a tenant requires time during covid. You are better off with a finance offer. Though after attorney review etc the spread narrowed to 70k.
If you no longer require face time, your job is simply knocking off checkmarks on a list. You are not creating anything new, just maintaining the status quo.
Where does the creativity come from with in person face time? How do you challenge each other with no in person facetime. Who the hell is making all the important decisions? Where is the creativity coming from?
Just look at this blog. How many times does someone’s post get misunderstood and taking out of context? You think we would have this problem in person? We would all easily understand each other if we were talking in person as opposed to this blog. Now imagine running a company where all written information has to be super detailed and communicate efficiently, as there is no in person communication. Disaster.
3b says:
September 30, 2021 at 11:18 am
Jcer: In your specific industry face time may still be required, but in others that need is no longer there.
Can you believe that my son’s high school offers free lunch to everyone (federal program for 21-22 academic year)? What a fcuking waste of money and time. Now, we have to make his lunch, because he only gets 35 minutes for lunch, and we can’t have him waste 20 of it waiting on line for food since every kid in the building is getting their free vittles. Also, there has to be rampant waste and hidden inflation…..because of moral hazard, no?
This is an affluent suburb……. WTF?
Libturd says:
September 30, 2021 at 10:50 am
“in a slower market,”
Like that ever happens anymore.
I am relatively convinced that this latest pop in housing prices has to do primarily with three things.
1) The pandemic living diaspora from city to suburb.
2) The government sending every family 10K or more in checks.
3) The lack of spending during 2020 leaving people with REAL savings for a change.
These tailwinds are reversing. In April, many of these families are going to be writing a check to Uncle Sam for 3 to 6K to pay back on the advance. The diaspora is over. And saving? What’s that? You can’t even buy anything of value anymore between the chip shortage and now the backup in our ports.
Chamath is good to listen to for ideas, and that’s about where it ends. He’s openly a pump and dumper. And people tore him apart for his shady math a few months ago.
Can you believe that my son’s high school offers free lunch to everyone (federal program for 21-22 academic year)? What a fcuking waste of money and time. Now, we have to make his lunch, because he only gets 35 minutes for lunch, and we can’t have him waste 20 of it waiting on line for food since every kid in the building is getting their free vittles. Also, there has to be rampant waste and hidden inflation…..because of moral hazard, no?
This is an affluent suburb……. WTF?
It’s statewide.
I don’t track. Having worked for large globally distributed companies my entire career, the concept of office face time is alien to me. It’s been 20 years since the scope of my day to day work was constrained to a single set of 4 walls. Even pre-pre-pre-covid my day to day would have involved a half dozen different national and international geographies. Key stakeholders were always distributed, and face time with c-suite and senior leadership always meant a zoom call or a plane flight.
I fail to believe that somehow I’m an outlier here.
Chi my daughter’s elementary school is doing the same, she won’t eat it so it’s not relevant. Our census tract median income is high, there are almost no kids qualified for free lunch. I don’t understand the reasoning behind it.
Since when? Why is my kid making his own lunch everyday?
Since last year due to federal subsidies..
Grim : In many sectors in corporate America its what you do, and how you do it. As in do you get the job done, do you meet deadlines. I started out with the whole socializing , face time, and play the politics thing. It’s simply not as important as it was , the days of the good all boys and schmoozing ,and golf dates is no where near what it was. Multiple reasons for this, one was definitely the rise of two income families, and day care and all the issues that come with two people working full time. Another big more recent issue is companies going the geographic agnostic route. So many are dispersed , there simply is no need or ability to face time unless it’s Zoom.
I’m with Grim,
And I support manufacturing!!! I do go in about twice a month so people have someone to thank for the processes that keep us running so smoothly and efficiently.
Gator tells me we don’t participate in the reduced/free lunch program at all. I’m putting a for sale sign up in front of my home, as I type this.
Lib – the check of students’ eligibility was waived for this and last year by the Department of Agriculture. The school food service business has boomed since then. …..
If you are moving for free lunch meals, here is Montclair’s lunch menu.
https://www.fdmealplanner.com/#menu/mealPlanner/11/227/2
grim, same thing but we were constantly flying people around, we’d have meetings in various offices where all the regional people of importance would have to come. If you were not asked to travel it did not bode well for your standing in the org. Employees were much more at ease when management periodic stopped to see them or requested they come to another office, the human interaction made people feel more valued and that their management was more engaged in a way that a video call did not.
Solving complicated issues almost never happened remotely, that was almost exclusively done with engineers in a room with a whiteboard, in my experience without the ability to hash out the ideas in person with someone basically mediating you wind up with 10 people all trying to implement their solution, you will not get collaboration, it’s too hard to read the personalities and the politics. Invariably I’d get multiple hypothesis on why a problem was occurring and solutions for the problems which almost never solved the actual problem. The same is true for design, people build on other people, and people always think they know best the subtleties of collaboration for non-trivial things necessitate in person interaction. I’ve heard similar things from a product manager at amazon I know, you need a team dynamic and that is not built remotely, you can get lots of individual contributors but if you need a team to be more than it’s some of parts it is challenging. Even before the different geographic teams had their own dynamics and it was born in their regional offices so at home is a little different.
chi and lib
We have the free lunch too. One kid refuses to eat it, the other one is making up for that by going for breakfast and lunch. It’s for everyone in the district regardless of income.
3b the politics are still there maybe you aren’t seeing it but the relationships you have with management, your visibility, how you are perceived is very important more so than what you produce or what you are capable of. At the end of the day the success of your career is tied to being aligned with the right faction(the one that wins), having a good relationship with them so that your project/inititive/BU etc gets funding and what it needs to perform optimally.
I’ve seen more than few good products fail because the leadership doesn’t have faith in the team and they get into a cycle where they are starved for investment, never get enough funds and fall behind the competition.
We had it last year in middle school but not HS
Stunning waste of money…..
Juice Box says:
September 30, 2021 at 12:20 pm
Lib – the check of students’ eligibility was waived for this and last year by the Department of Agriculture. The school food service business has boomed since then. …..
Gator tells me we don’t participate in the reduced/free lunch program at all. I’m putting a for sale sign up in front of my home, as I type this.
I was shocked, Wayne sent out notes before the school year started basically saying. Free food, come and get it, no strings attached.
I believe you can even get breakfast picked up for the weekends.
e-mail me….. I have a resource for you…. I know you are the fingernails dirty sort, so I can give you access and you can run wild with it….. leave cell # so I can text
Libturd says:
September 29, 2021 at 5:25 pm
Junior
What’s with all the giveaways with no hardships? Something fishy is going on and it’s bi-partisan is nature.
Yes it’s a growth industry our family run food service company just took a private equity investment.
grim, same thing but we were constantly flying people around, we’d have meetings in various offices where all the regional people of importance would have to come. If you were not asked to travel it did not bode well for your standing in the org. Employees were much more at ease when management periodic stopped to see them or requested they come to another office, the human interaction made people feel more valued and that their management was more engaged in a way that a video call did not.
I don’t think this goes away. In fact, it probably becomes a bit more frequent as we exit covid. Longer term, I think we see real estate costs shift to travel and offsite event costs. Sales travel might be dead, but business travel isn’t. I think people are getting this wrong. A more distributed, hybrid workforce means more travel, not less.
So much for covid is largely a threat in densely populated areas theory
https://qz.com/2067368/covid-is-killing-rural-americans-at-twice-the-rate-of-urbanites/?utm_source=YPL
Got 2nd Moderna in Feb. Tested positive today. Guess that stuff isn’t bulletproof.
Rural Americans tend to vote Republican. Republican leadership have been anti-vax and anti mask mandate. Covid is mainly killing the unvaccinated. This is your Republican leadership at work.
“Covid is killing rural Americans at twice the rate of urbanites”
Sorry for your luck Phoenix. May you not show any symptoms and heal quickly. Also, stay the fukc away from me. :P
Sorry to hear that Phoenix . Hoping you have an asymptomatic or mild case
Phoenix, hope it all works out. Any idea how or where you got it?
Phoenix – you should not have done the “corona challenge”….
https://globalnews.ca/news/6718358/tiktok-toilet-seat-lick-coronavirus/
Get well and stay frosty!.
My daughter keeps doing it and brings home a pint of milk everyday. She said all the kids love it because they are getting chocolate milk in the morning. They probably already ate breakfast at home. So that chocolate milk is icing on the cake. That sounds great for a population who we now know has doubled their BMI since March 2020.
Jcer : I don’t say it’s not there, simply it’s not as big factor as it was at least in some sectors. It’s more difficult to suck up and BS in a remote environment.
Phoenix: Sorry to hear you picked it up. Any idea where? Hopefully no symptoms or if you do only mild. Take care of yourself.
I was livid when Wayne sent the letter home at the start of the year. Thought to myself, this can’t be real. Yup, it is.
chicagofinance says:
September 30, 2021 at 11:41 am
Can you believe that my son’s high school offers free lunch to everyone (federal program for 21-22 academic year)?
3b/grim,
I can attest to the crazy number of remote roles and region agnostic stuff. I would say 50% of recruting is for roles outside NYC area. 9/10 times, it is idiot receruiters who don’t look at your location then ask if NC location is ok. Morons.
I had two contacts from West Coast in the last week. Pure remote and good salaries but not enough to work PST hours. That is the catch. here with remote.
On travel front, agree with grim that more will be required but companies also better prepare to pay people for the risk of being exposed in travel centers, airports, big cities. Personally, not doing it for only 10-15% bump. My old boss tried to get me into his company but the travel killed it. There is a cost to be away from family and risking health going foward. Lots won’t sign up for it.
3b,
Open your eyes. Politics will never die. It has been with society since day 1. It will never die.
3b says:
September 30, 2021 at 12:08 pm
Grim : In many sectors in corporate America its what you do, and how you do it. As in do you get the job done, do you meet deadlines. I started out with the whole socializing , face time, and play the politics thing. It’s simply not as important as it was , the days of the good all boys and schmoozing ,and golf dates is no where near what it was. Multiple reasons for this, one was definitely the rise of two income families, and day care and all the issues that come with two people working full time. Another big more recent issue is companies going the geographic agnostic route. So many are dispersed , there simply is no need or ability to face time unless it’s Zoom.
Kris Cunningham never expected to be living in Panama. When her husband, Joel, started talking about retiring to Central America, “I thought he had lost his mind.” She didn’t have a passport and had never been abroad.
But after nine years of living in David, a city of 83,000 near the Pacific Ocean and close to the border with Costa Rica, “we are super happy here,” the 69-year-old says. “It’s worked out beyond my wildest expectations.”
She learned Spanish, taught herself to play bass guitar and joined her husband’s rock band, called Monkey Nerve, when the bass player moved to Colombia. She seems to fall into conversation with everyone, has biked from home across Costa Rica and into Nicaragua, and blogs about her life.
Backtrack a decade. Cunningham was working in Florida as a visiting nurse, burned out but knew she and her husband, already retired from his home-remodeling job, couldn’t afford to stay in Sarasota without a paycheck or her Social Security check. And even a reduced check was a few years away.
“We were just working to keep our heads above water” while she counted down the days until she could claim Social Security at 62, she recalled.
At her husband’s urging, they decided to check out Costa Rica and Panama. Costa Rica was pricier. Panama City wasn’t a good fit — too much city. Boquete, in the mountains, is an expat enclave and didn’t appeal. But David felt right — not too large, friendly and foreigners are integrated into the community, rather than living apart. “It just feels so free here, so relaxed, so not alone,” she says.
I think the free school lunch is one party bailout for the producers and one party greasing the skids for soci@lism.
It’s scary to see how quickly a kid can acclimate to the government feeding them. We had to ask the school not to allow them to take the food.
2:45 yeah who the hell cares if kids are hungry at school….
Bootstrap!!’mmm
Some 3,000 new jobs at a Fortune 500 financial tech firm are coming to New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy announced Thursday.
Declaring “this just isn’t any office opening,” Murphy said Fiserv will invest $100 million in the state and, more precisely, Berkeley Heights, where the announcement was made.
The jobs, which will average $100,000 a year, are expected to start rolling in sometime in the first half of 2022. Most of the jobs will be technology-related roles. About 2,000 of them will be new jobs and the rest are existing Fiserv employees.
“It’s a huge, huge day for New Jersey,” Murphy said.
“This is our global future and once again this future is going to be shaped right here in New Jersey,” he said. “I’ve spoke about it many times before, there’s absolutely nothing stopping New Jersey from reclaiming its position as a global leader (in tech jobs).”
The company is based out of Wisconsin and bills itself as a global leader in payments and financial technology. The new campus will be one of its largest hubs on the East Coast.
Fiserv also expects to partner with Rutgers to work with graduate students, Frank Bisignano, the company’s president and CEO said.
“This facility that we’re looking at will be vibrant (and) … it will be a place where people thrive,” he said.
Tim Sullivan, the CEO of the New Jersey Economic Development Authority, called the announcement “extraordinary.”
“It’s incredibly exciting and thrilled to be here,” he said.
The jobs will be located at Connell Park inside a massive, 343,000-square-foot building, according to real Estate New Jersey, which reported it’s in the process of a $400 million improvement and expansion project. It sits on a 185-acre plot of land, according to the report.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/09/3000-financial-tech-jobs-coming-to-nj-murphy-announces.html
Strangers stoppin’ strangers just to shake their hand
Everybody’s playing in the heart of gold band, heart of gold band
Childhood obesity is a bigger problem than hunger. It’s all about substituting responsible parenting with government programs.
Fiserv only needed a tax credit of $56,600/new job to make the move. Progress!!
3:20 obesity from crummy food sources and limited Access to fresh healthy food.
It’s scary to see how quickly a kid can acclimate to the government feeding them.
The dealer will always let the junkies have a taste to keep them coming back for more. The junkie will start selling grandma’s silver place settings to keep the high going. Look no further than the $3,500,000,000,000 spending plan by the extort and spend democrats. O’Biden said, “The infrastructure plan will cost nothing and will be paid for.” Read that sentence again slowly… it’ll cost nothing and will be paid for. The best illustration of that slight of hand is like paying for that delicious meal last Saturday evening and claiming it was free because you paid the bill.
Words to remember from 1990:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn-31_0W9Tc&list=PLAxT_DkSwQLuq9R351Vp9kVGbE4TiMzQ6
“Can you believe that my son’s high school offers free lunch to everyone (federal program for 21-22 academic year)? This is an affluent suburb……. WTF?”
” I don’t understand the reasoning behind it.”
If you can’t walk a progressive agenda through the front door sneak it in the back.
NY has been advertising for a while now that if you take care of your parents they will pay you. Another state (NY again or NJ) pays you for transporting family members to health care appointments. Free food for everyone, no means testing. Etc.
If you patch six disparate programs together each giving you money for an ADL or zeroing out the cost what do effectively have?
UBI.
“Since when? Why is my kid making his own lunch everyday?”
How did Capt Cheapo miss that?! :)
Then buy better food. It’s an free country. When Michelle Obama tried healthy food in the school lunch programs it was thrown away and there was a revolt.
Goat is right about that one. And no, Glen Ridge does not participate since there is not a child in our town who qualifies. Now that they built that huge new condo building by Nicolo’s, we should finally qualify. I’ll have to urge the school to sign up.
Phoenix, hope you get better. One of my const contractors near Hudson yards came down sick as well after being vaccinated. Or he may have stepped on a dirty needle .
Bystander: It’s where it is all going, and it’s popular in spite of someone’s howling at the moon. When my firm officially announced it yesterday, they stressed it was overwhelming supported by the employees, across all demographics, but especially the millennials. I thought we would go in at least one day a week, but not
Grim, may want to run the NY times article on an entire community in Mexico is being built for low income families using an 11′ 3d printer. Not nj real estate but Would be nice to have a positive rereport
Other professional services firms to follow?
https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-pwc-tells-us-employees-they-need-never-return-office-2021-09-30/
PwC waking the walk. JUST LIKE MANY of the big accounting and advisory firms they are advising their Fortune 1000 clients just how it is done to save $$$.
Flashback Thursday Ba-beeeee!
Growing economy….
Very low rates…..and…….
DEM-O-GRAPHICS!
Fcuking Liesman’s hairline hasn’t changed in 15 years….not that it was great to start with lol….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmqvibv4UU&ab_channel=AlanFox
Fiserv riding the ‘buy now, pay later’ wave in NYC. It is insanely oversaturated. Every bank jumping in and buying smaller payment fintech company.
Juice: Those workers at Pw, are all broken people, or losers. They must be check the box employees, and it’s obvious there is no creativity in these positions. An expert in corporate America told me this.
And now we are going to have even more people sitting all day in their underwear, and refusing to shower.
Unfortunately, accounting is ripe for remote. Priming the system to dish it out to india amd then eventually the AI computer programs. Do not let your kids sign up to be an accountant.
There has been outsourcing for accounting functions to Sri Lanka for at least the last 15 years. I am a bit of an expert on corporate America, for specific sectors.
Solid advice.
“If you were looking to deploy investment $ in the ARK funds and wanted to use a “Dogs of the ARK Theory” you would buy in this order with the most weight at the top:
1. $ARKG
2. $ARKW
3. $ARKF
4. $ARKQ
Or just buy ARKK
If you believe in Reversion of the Mean.”
I believe in reversion to the mean in NJ RE Report posts. When the overall quality of the posts here is too high, we require Pumps to come here and revert the threads here to the long run mean quality of the internet. We used to have reliable value destroying and intellect desiccating material shared by FlabMax, but he is too distracted by his progressive echo chamber to properly troll and distract,
Covid Is Killing Rural Americans at Twice the Rate of Urbanites
https://apple.news/Axtvd4hCZQgiRpFxNPTPjYw
That’s because Grim allowed Fab to work remotely.
Tough crowd.
Posted earlier teach. Pay attention or stay for detention.
Lib: And Fab doesn’t shower since he works remotely.
Good choose, fast delivery time, average prices. All this words about this service. I am a customer of this service 1.5 years, like it
Merck oral antiviral appears to be a game changer. At least pre-market futures think so…Gottlieb too :)
Trial stopped early to move directly to EUA due to demonstrable efficacy.
Watch your re-open plays.
Turned the DOW from -150 to +30 during the course of coverage.
“When the overall quality of the posts here is too high, we require Pumps to come here and revert the threads here to the long run mean quality of the internet.”
I’d rail him but it’s not even worth it…..you’re a financial professional, that 8:20p post is pure garbage….cut and paste from some anonymous 20 year old college student on a sub-Reddit with $400 in a Robin Hood account….
And he sees it as “solid advice”.
Christ, I hope some grandparent set money aside for his kid that he can’t access…post after post, I just sit here shaking my head with that feeling in your gut you get looking at people like this of “oh yeah, he’s going to blow his account up…just a matter of time”.
He’s the reason 529s can’t be self-managed and offer you only four defined investment options….LOL
NO inflation.. quick change the signs to $1.50 Tree
Dollar Tree will start selling items that cost more than $1
https://www.nj.com/business/2021/10/dollar-tree-will-start-selling-items-that-cost-more-than-1.html
Left he showed incredible fiscal restraint. He has access to at least $500,000 in equity he could have invested. There were plenty of people that tapped that equity and went long on DOGE and SHIBA coins. I bet all they could talk about in the teachers lounge for months on end is how they were all getting rich on DOGE and would soon retire early, that had to affect ones sanity when everyone else in the lounge including the Gym Teacher is making a mint in crypto and all you got is pancake in a can.
I mean look at these headlines..
“Shiba Inu Gets Back Above $0.000007 As Bitcoin Moves Higher ”
Shiba Inu bulls ready to take-off as SHIB price stabilizes”
All it needs to do is move to $0.0007 and I am rich I tell ya..
Travel plans to the Turks and Caicos and the Virgin Islands are in jeopardy.. Rich parents are in an uproar as they are told by Montclair Superintendent Jonathan Ponds their unvaccinated kids have to quarantine and cannot attend school for 7 -10 days if they travel anywhere including grandma’s funeral.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/10/nj-school-district-asks-parents-to-avoid-unnecessary-travel-to-fight-spread-of-covid.html
Good Morning.
Thank you to all that wished me well, and even the pricks that didn’t.
Haha.
All I can say is that Covid is tenacious. Still feeling effects days later. I was 8 months post vaccination. Did the vaccine work? Well, I’m not hospitalized, but since I was no way to know if I would have been. Don’t regret getting vaxxed. Since I had Moderna, no booster was available. So who knows how many “bodies-anti” I still had. Too bad I don’t have the 5 houses like the guy in the video.
I have no idea where I got it. Most likely work environment.
Very persistent cough. Nasty bug really prefers the lungs.
Next 9 days are going to be painful for me-so used to working and have been banned and thrown off the island temporarily. I need to find something as a backup work from home job-maybe just to make Pumpy twitch a bit.
Thanks Lib for everything. Forward my # to LW I have time now to discuss that post I put up earlier.
Just waiting to see what’s going to happen to my child custody now. Already went through one court battle as my ex tried to take my daughter due to my career and potential exposure to Covid. Halloween is coming up, there is a chance that the witch will crash her broom on takeoff or landing. So I have hope.
LW, That Merck drug does sound promising. But after reading a story about Portugal where almost everyone is vaccinated just like I am, it’s appearing more and more that this is not going to give up easy, that it will continue to mutate, and it will be one stopgap measure after another. It’s not leaving anytime soon.
Try to stay healthy. Really. Not shaming anyone. It just gives you an edge. No guarantee, but an edge.
I posted a very short video on the system used to do my PCR. System not much bigger than an espresso machine. I’m no stock expert but I think this company was a good buy when it was acquired in a cash deal.
Thinking of opening up a stock trading account. If anyone has a favorite plus some books they can suggest like stocks for dummies, I’m game. Can’t lose as much as I did in the divorce :)
Going out now for a mild hike to force NJ air into these less than compliant lung tissues and show them who their daddy is.
Hope you all have a great day. Even you Pumpy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-y3xi1K7JE
Molnupiravir – Is that some kind of Viking speak?
Here is the meat and potatoes.
“Time to clearance of viral RNA in nasopharyngeal swabs was the primary endpoint of this study and was significantly reduced in participants receiving 800 mg molnupiravir”
So nasal Swabs and showed less Covid..after day 3 and day 5 day of treatment.
However this does not look so great…
“By Day 28, 99.2% of molnupiravir-treated participants had developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, compared to 96.5% of those administered placebo.”
Here is the full preprint..
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.17.21258639v1.full-text
Phoenix – Glad to hear your spirits are up.
FYI – My blood boils for you when I hear stories about evil lawyers….Any lawyer that would argue in the court system you are an unfit parent because of what YOU do becuase you might get covid should be disbarred for just being a total ahole…. The death rate for eating a McSandwich every day is higher than Covid..I doubt that ahole lawyer would argue that in the court system.
Anyway feel better. If you need anything like a visit from a priest let us know….
or a hooker dressed like a priest. We can arrange that too!
Sorry, Phoenix. Missed that yesterday. Best of luck on recovery. Going to concert tonight so reminder to mask up.
Ed,
Some Phriday fun..the definition of synergy starts at about 7m in and mushrooms into insane, improvisational solo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T–ttsSSVS0
So Fab do you still think Sussmann’s indictment won’t lead to bigger fish? Perhaps even the biggest fish of all.. Fillet of Hillary fish..
From CNN… (more charges may be coming)…
“The grand jury subpoenas for documents came earlier this month after Durham charged Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann with lying to the FBI in a September 2016 meeting. During that meeting, Sussmann handed over data purporting to show links between the Trump Organization and Russia’s Alfa Bank. That tip became part of the FBI’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election but the FBI ultimately couldn’t find evidence of a link.
In seeking additional documents from Sussmann’s former law firm, Perkins Coie, investigators from the special counsel’s office appear to be sharpening their focus on the Democratic political machinery during the 2016 campaign and efforts to tie Trump to Russia.”
Phx: get well soon
The fund aims to capture long-term growth with the low correlation of relative returns to traditional growth strategies and negative correlation to value strategies.
One of the hottest of all US exchange-traded funds is the Catherine Wood-led ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK). The flagship ETF of the Ark Investment Management with close to $25.52 billion in AUM is listed on the NYSE Arca Stock Exchange. The fund is known to have taken some long-term tech bets in its portfolio. In 2020, ARKK had gained over 150 per cent while the 5-year annualized return has been over 40 percent for the fund. Currently, ARKK is quoted at around $117.14, up by 0.86 percent over the previous close. As per ARKK’s product note, the fund is focused on ARK’s belief that innovation is key to growth. The ARK Innovation ETF is built on the cornerstone investments that present the best risk-reward opportunities from ARK’s innovation-based themes.
ARKK Fund
ARKK is an actively managed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that seeks long-term growth of capital. It seeks to achieve this investment objective by investing under normal circumstances primarily (at least 65% of its assets) in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that are relevant to ARKK’s investment theme of disruptive innovation. ARK defines ‘‘disruptive innovation’’ as the introduction of a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works.
Industry Exposure
Companies within ARKK include those that rely on or benefit from the development of new products or services, technological improvements and advancements in scientific research relating to the areas of DNA technologies, industrial innovation in energy, automation and manufacturing, the increased use of shared technology, infrastructure and services, and technologies that make financial services more efficient.
Fund Facts
Expense Ratio: 0.75%
Number of Holdings: 35-55
Portfolio Manager: Catherine D. Wood
As far as the market capitalization of companies is concerned, the ARKK has nearly 80 per cent in mega-caps ($100B+) and Large caps ($10 – $100B) companies. Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services occupies almost 80 per cent of the fund’s assets. As of June 30, 2021, the top 10 holdings included: Tesla, Roku, Teladoc Health, Square, Zoom Video Communications, Shopify, Twilio, Coinbase Global, Spotify Technology, Unity Software ARKK comes with an opportunity for investors to take exposure in companies leading the innovation.
The fund aims to capture long-term growth with the low correlation of relative returns to traditional growth strategies and negative correlation to value strategies. ARKK provides a lower-cost alternative to mutual funds with true active management in an Exchange-Traded Fund that invests in rapidly moving themes. As against traditional indices, it can be a complement to traditional value or growth strategies. Before looking to invest in ARKK, know that it might not be the typical equity fund as the risk reward could be slightly higher than other funds.
https://www.financialexpress.com/investing-abroad/featured-stories/catherine-woods-ark-innovation-etf-what-makes-it-a-unique-investment-opportunity-in-the-us-stock-market/2335520/
FlabMax: get sick soon
Summary
-ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF focuses on healthcare companies.
-The fund targets companies with high growth potential.
-The fund is actively managed, making it market resilient.
ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF (NYSE:ARKG) is an equity based Exchange Traded Fund with focus on innovation oriented healthcare companies. The fund invests its holdings across the spectrum of market cap and hence offers diversification to its investors. As ARK Genomic Revolution is aimed at investing in companies which provide cutting edge innovative ideas, it employs a combination of investment strategies including Top Down and Bottom Up approach. The mix ensures that the fund is invested in fundamentally robust companies and is able to provide steady returns.
The Composition
ARK Genomic Revolution is a thematic fund and is mainly invested in healthcare companies. These firms constitute 94 percent of its holdings. While the fund has clear healthcare focus, it achieves diversification through various other means such as capitalization differentiation and technological orientation. As stated earlier, the fund invests across different market cap bands. ARK Genomic Revolution invests a little over one-third of its holdings in large cap companies with $10 to $100 billion in capitalization while medium companies with $2 billion to $10 billion in market cap account for 44 percent of the fund’s portfolio. Remaining portfolio is invested in Mega companies and small companies. This mix ensures that the fund has diversified its risk while also optimizing its returns.
Technology focus makes another basis for ARK Genomic Revolution to diversify. The ETF has invested in a wide range of technologies including Targeted Therapeutics and Bioinformatics. The former accounts for nearly 20 percent of the fund’s portfolio while the latter stands at 17.3 percent. Apart from these, the ETF is also engaged in Molecular Diagnostics segment, Instrumentation segment and Beyond DNA accounting for 16.3 percent, 13.1 percent and 13 percent of the portfolio, respectively.
These two metrics provide suitable diversification to the fund while allowing it to focus on its niche area of healthcare sector. Within different sub-segments, the fund may keep changing its holdings in response to market conditions and other factors. As of June 30, 2021, following exhibit shows the fund’s largest holdings company wise. The change in composition is important in actively managed funds as the strategy allows them to customize their design according to the requirements.
The analysis of the composition also helps in analyzing the causes behind the performance of the fund. For the quarter ended on June 30, 2021, the fund lagged behind broader indices as some of its top holdings failed to perform. Teladoc (NYSE:TDOC), its largest component, had rocky performance which took its toll on the overall performance of the fund. Following exhibit shows the impact of the various constituents upon the fund’s performance.
The Performance
As ARK Genomic Revolution is an actively managed ETF, its investment potential may be evaluated through the analysis of its Net Asset Value or NAV growth rate. As on June 30, 2021, the fund had $9.74 billion worth of net assets. Its one-year growth rate stood at 79.12 percent while the same metrics was reported at 50.03 percent and 42.54 percent for 3 years and 5 years’ time frame. However, it should be kept in mind that the market price of an ETF, though impacted by NAV, is not identical. The fund has provided robust 27.20 percent growth in its NAV since its inception.
Apart from return, the investors need to look at expenses side as well. A fund needs to incur several expenses to carry out its operations. Since these expenses are ultimately paid out of the proceeds to the fund, it is essential that the investors ensure that these are not excessive. ARK Genomic Revolution reported its expense ratio at 0.75 percent which is in line with its peers.
The Risk Factor
While assessing the feasibility of any ETF, it is important to look at different factors and not just remain fixated on returns only. It is equally important to assess the risk dimension of the ETF. The first and foremost risk faced by any ETF is market risk, which refers to the volatility in the general market. All the market instruments face such risk. Then there are specific risks which are endemic to specific sectors. In the case of ARK Genomic Revolution, one such risk is related to Healthcare sector. Recent past had been especially volatile and erratic for healthcare sector and the impact was clearly visible on the performance of the fund.
Apart from the specific risks, ETFs are also affected by the change in treasury yields. In the recent months, swift increase in the US 10-year Treasury yield put immense pressure on the ETF which was clearly visible on the quarterly performance shown by ARK Genomic Revolution. The impact of increase in treasury yield is particularly taxing on growth-oriented companies as they mainly derive their value from the anticipation of future growth. However, such growth becomes more expensive as higher yields make borrowings more expensive, leading to higher cost of capital and compromising margins.
Investment Thesis
ARK Genomic Revolution is an actively managed ETF, implying that it responds swiftly to the changes in market circumstances. However, despite the fast-moving management style, the fund has managed to keep its costs down, ensuring that the investors get maximum bang for their buck. While we have analyzed the overall performance of the fund, it is important to have a look at the discount/premium ratio as well. This ratio tells whether the ETF is trading at discount or at premium in relation to its NAV. The investors may want to open a position at the price point which does not carry excessive premium. Overall, ARK Genomic Revolution has the potential to provide robust and reliable returns in the past, due to its emphasis on high quality stocks. However, the fund also has marginally high-risk profile as it focuses on growth oriented companies, which tend to be more volatile in their performance.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456266-arkg-offers-solid-investment-opportunity-with-focus-on-growth-firms
Do you understand that this definition implicitly suggests negative long-term returns? Comical. Put together by a marketing idiot 3 years out of undergrad.
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 1, 2021 at 9:20 am
The fund aims to capture long-term growth with the low correlation of relative returns to traditional growth strategies and negative correlation to value strategies.
So tell me, what is wrong with investing in these funds long term? Volatile and risky in the short term, yes, but long term they provide some massive upside.
Chi,
She has avg over 30% every year. She has had one bad year, and that is this year, after the funds ran over 150%. Why do you hate this so much?
lmao…knew something was up over the past couple months. NHMD is alive and now in crypto. 8k came out today. Damn, I’m one lucky mofo. Held all these years hoping for a new pump and my prayers have been answered. Huge volume already today.
Any lawyer that would argue in the court system you are an unfit parent because of what YOU do becuase you might get covid should be disbarred for just being a total ahole….
Come on, no judge would take this seriously. As a lawyer you’d be an idiot to even try to make this argument, worst case, it ends up being completely counterproductive.
Unlicensed pot dealers really becoming emboldened in NJ.
Stopped for gas yesterday at a shitty little gas station, there was a pop-up pot shop setup in the parking lot selling weed and edibles. Pretty sure they were playing the, “Pay $100 for a coke and chips, and pick your free gift off the table” game.
Yeah they tried that in Garbagefield too. Somebody did not get their taste…
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/garfield/news/prosecutor-owner-husband-employees-busted-in-raid-on-bergen-pot-dispensary/816634/
Phoenix, sending well wishes. You should try to get a script for Indomethacin, it will help with the COVID headache and for some reason it relieves the cough. It’s a nasty illness and it comes in waves, initially you’ll feel pretty bad, then a little better, and then worse. The awful chills, sweats,nightmares, just really bad, shortness of breath, elevated heart rate and blood pressure, literally you get winded getting up to use the toilet. That only lasted 2-3 days for me but I was tired and winded for like 2 months after. Hopefully the vaccine spared you the worst of it.
Phoenix,
Get well, bud!
On the therapeutics, Phoenix. It’s a corona virus, I can probably go back to last year and find posts talking about why vaccination works poorly for them. We know all about it from agriculture, we vaccinate chickens for IBV, it has not been the success they had hoped it would be lots of breakthrough infection and the subsequent economic losses. That’s not to say vaccination is bad it does prevent some illness but the most important thing is to blunt the disease so that people do not require hospitalization. If we had a therapeutic that could prevent hospitalization and subsequent death the threat is over and everyone goes back to normal. That will be the metric for success, if they administer is drug in the first few days how many wind up in the hospital. If there is a significant reduction it’s a win.
Phoenix, get and stay well.
Lib, if you have his number hanging around (and mine still) toss it over to me. Otherwise I’ll find yours and hit you up. TYIA.
Sorry, busy week IRL….
Nice investment week though Lib….reopening plays flying again (LUVing LUV) and the levered shorts are going down, up 60% on ARKK short and 50% on HOOD….kills me but may lighten up earlier than usual just to book some of these gains, somehow I’m always waiting for a shoe to drop over weekends…..
“Come on, no judge would take this seriously. As a lawyer you’d be an idiot to even try to make this argument, worst case, it ends up being completely counterproductive.”
Clearly sir, you have never had the pleasure of family court.
I’m surprised a court appointed expert wasn’t mandated to investigate. At his expense, of course.
“NHMD is alive and now in crypto. 8k came out today. Damn, I’m one lucky mofo.”
LOLOLOL. And the band plays on……took you an hour or so to prove my point from this morning…..
Yeah, I need to get me some of those pancake to crypto stocks trading with a bid/ask of 0.0067 by 0.0069……
Please just step away from the screen…..
Phoenix.
LW has your digits. It’s up to him to contact you.
You should consider joining our investment club. It will teach you the necessary basics so you are investing, not gambling. Our club is approaching twenty years of existence. That is a lot of combined investment knowledge which is shared for free. We meet the 2nd Tuesday of each month (online these days).
No vax no custody, no mask no custody.
Then there is this…Phoenix are you faced with this?”
From Pravda everyone’s trusted news source.
“New Battle for Those on Coronavirus Front Lines: Child Custody
Doctors, firefighters and others who risk exposure to Covid-19 are being taken to court by ex-spouses who want to keep them away from their children.”
Last month, Dr. Bertha Mayorquin, a New Jersey physician, told her soon-to-be ex-husband that there was a change in plans. After two weeks of providing treatment by video as a precaution against the coronavirus, she would resume seeing patients in person.
But when she left work on a Friday to pick up her two daughters for the weekend, her husband, Wendell Surdukowski, presented her with a court order granting him sole temporary custody of the young girls. His lawyer had convinced a judge that Dr. Mayorquin could expose the children, 11 and 8, to Covid-19.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-child-custody.html
Juice, I’ve concluded there is no justice. Medical professionals are suffering in this pandemic, this is already taking a heavy toll on them and now the stupid communist judges in NJ are adding this to their list of worries.
It’s like the vax mandates for medical workers, if they were front line workers there’s a good chance they’ve already been infected and thus do not need the vaccine. I’d really like our government to come out and confirm that those previously infected DO NOT NEED THE VACCINE, it does not benefit them. Why we should fire people who dealt with this pandemic who we desperately need is beyond stupid.
We live in the United States, the government needs to GTFO of everyone’s business. Their justification for all of this is tenuous at best and strrictly speaking does not seem entirely legal.
Cry me a river. God forbid I say I might get lucky. I’m not advocating buying.
leftwing says:
October 1, 2021 at 10:37 am
“NHMD is alive and now in crypto. 8k came out today. Damn, I’m one lucky mofo.”
LOLOLOL. And the band plays on……took you an hour or so to prove my point from this morning…..
Yeah, I need to get me some of those pancake to crypto stocks trading with a bid/ask of 0.0067 by 0.0069……
Please just step away from the screen…..
Phoenix,
Sorry to hear you caught Covid, you will beat it! Being young sure helps. I had it back in February and beat it with the help of Regeneron, being over 65 with lung disease gave me access to the miracle drug. Keep us all in the loop, we will pray for you.
I for one would miss your posts…. be safe, get healthy!
Jim
“I’d really like our government to come out and confirm that those previously infected DO NOT NEED THE VACCINE, it does not benefit them.”
There is no credibility for me of any entity that does not consider prior infection in covid protocols and analysis.
Governments, employers, universities, MSM….
Policies and decisions around covid that do not account for prior infection immunity are scientifically invalid and demonstrably potentially harmful to a not insignificant cohort of people.
Any entity not acknowledging prior infection is so ignorant or untruthful that they should not being given any consideration whatsoever, and proactively opposed.
JCer, if you watched the testimony yesterday, Paul questioned a CDC official on the Israeli data and he claimed he’s not familiar with the study. This is complete nonsense, as they are actively watching the Israel data to justify their boosters. They have some sort of vested interest at all these levels to not acknowledge natural immunity, but they are trying to tow the line between admitting that they are ignoring all the data worldwide and still claiming we don’t know. The breakthrough infection rate is several orders of magnitude greater than the reinfection rate. The data is crystal clear. And people wonder why our “leaders” have a credibility issue.
“Cry me a river. God forbid I say I might get lucky. I’m not advocating buying.”
And yet you bought it.
And spent months spewing oral diarrhea on here on its merits.
[megaphone crackle] “Sir, we have you surrounded. Keep your hands in view, turn off the computer, and step away from the screen!” [megaphone crackle]
Jcer,
Not going to get into the Vax/ Anti Vax battle. Will say that the majority of those in my line of work are on board with getting it, I work with some amazing individuals that I fully believe in, and they felt the vaccine was necessary. Even if it was just a giant experiment – the fact that they were willing to take the risk was enough for me to go with it. Trust is huge in my industry.
I feel the vaccine/antivirals are going to limit hospitalizations-I have my doubts if they can stop this permanently, however. I have not heard of one place on the planet where herd immunity has brought this to an end, and I worry about those who are compromised as they are always at risk for this and so many other diseases. This is one of those things where someone gets a sniffle, the other one ends up with a tombstone. Ugly.
It’s about buying time, or holding something off long enough to make it to the next day. Just think Freddy Mercury would still be alive if he got his disease just a few years later than he did. In time it might be able to put this one down permanently.
“or a hooker dressed like a priest.”
Hurts to laugh.
Stop that. Or you will go to hell.
hahaha.
And if any of you are considering using bleach as a cure, take it from me, use the brand named stuff and not the cheap Walmart stuff.
It’s worse than Everclear.
Phoenix- hope you rise again soon!
Probably tastes better.
Would that not be a nun? Not that I am judging anyone’s lifestyle.
Another thing you will find out. Once you get Covid it’s like everyone knows. Just got a call from the Township health department.
They all keep asking you the same questions like what are your symptoms.
Felt like telling her it doubled the size of my member, but since it wasn’t on Facetime I wouldn’t have had the enjoyment of seeing the look on her face.
Phoenix..
LOL!
Damn, Manchin playing hardball with Oz Powell. Won’t support spending unless Fed immediately stop asset purchases creating runaway inflatioon. Hard to disagree with him but why does Powell care? They operate without care or oversight from Congress.
Re-appointment time soon.
Yup.
BRT
That was the hhs Secretary, a complete hack lawyer. How he was appointed with no qualifications besides swamp creature I have no idea.
Of course he claims to know nothing of the Israeli study on the one hand, and claims all his decisions are based on studies and following the science. Just another liar.
The End Is Nigh (FlabMax VP Anti-Zionist Edition):
https://nypost.com/2021/10/01/harris-office-does-damage-control-after-she-praises-ethnic-genocide-remark/
Chgo: Unbelievable! Did she understand what the student said?? She ain’t the swiftest! Did she mean it?? And the student is part Iranian and part Yemeni, yeah those two countries of freedom and respect for human rights!! So if Biden steps down we get her?? Are the Dems going to anoint her as the Pres candidate in 2024?
3b,
I can’t stand her and I agree she is a moron, but it’s not like she said it. A student said it and she failed to denounce it though she urged people to believe in their “personal truths.”
This is more of a generally unfounded political attack. If those words came out of her mouth, I and a lot more of America, would be up in arms.
The NY Post treatment is a good example of what is wrong with the media currently.
Iran is promoting the video of the cackling VP praising an anti-Israel student and Jewish folks will still vote democrat.
Let me know when we stop sending money to these ethnic cleansers.
Lib: A student makes a comment like that and that was her response? She could not do better, I will do it for her.
Harris Response: Although I applaud you for stepping up for your beliefs, we must be careful in using labels like ethnic cleansing and without understanding the complexities of the situation. While I acknowledge your concerns on mistakes Israel may have made in their dealings with the Palestinians we should also acknowledge that there are many people in the Middle East who are struggling for human rights and freedom and peace, including religious and ethnic minorities in Iran and the people of Yemen who are suffering through a brutal civil war. There I fixed it.
I agree she could have done better. Should have said, “that’s your opinion and I respect it, though I don’t agree.” But I don’t think this means she believes Israel is on an ethnic cleansing campaign, the way the paper makes it out to sound.
Stupid on her part. But again, she didn’t say it.
I have friends who say stupid things all of the time. If I don’t denounce it, it doesn’t mean I agree with it.
Again. I don’t like her at all. My point is that this is being made larger than it is.
Lib: I agree. But she is the VP of the US, and may well be the President. Additionally, she is also an Attorney, so she should at a minimum be able to craft a reasonable balanced response, that could not be construed as being in agreement with what that the student said. As VP/ possibly Pres, she is held to a higher standard as she or anyone else in that position should be. The response that I came up with was off the top of my head, if I could do it, she certainly should be able to. Part of the problem may be she does not have a clue about the Middle East, and could not find Yemen or Iran on the map. If it were a Republican, and on another controversial topic , the left/ media would be howling.
As for the student whose heart is breaking, a little self awareness would go along way before criticizing Israel.
It’s not even English. Or “Finance”.
Seriously Chi, what the fcuk does the below even MEAN? In all honest what ‘strategy’ can be derived from that garble?
The only strategy in that mess I can discern is…if you use the words ‘strategy, growth, correlation’ twice each in one sentence some Reddit rubes may think you’re a brilliant investor.
“The fund aims to capture long-term growth with the low correlation of relative returns to traditional growth strategies and negative correlation to value strategies.”
A mission statement worthy of a piece of postcard junk mail advertising roofing, painting, or power washing.
Lefty,
Name a better performing ETF since 2014 or STFU.
You guys bash the hell out of her on the past 6 months of performance, but ignore the previous 6 years. Talk about ignorant.
1:33 build it back better !
Now you will come back and say how she just was lucky. Really, just stfu. Cathie Wood has been the most successful stock picker in the past 10 years. She has absolutely beat the sh/t out of her competition. She also did it by creating her own platform for ETF’s that are focused on disruptive tech themes. No one has done this before, and instead of acknowledging the amazing job she has done, you just keep taking jabs.
All that work you do day to day with short term trading, well guess what, you were better off buying ark funds over the past 6 years. You would have done zero work, and made more money.
Those must be my lying eyes again. Like claiming hordes of unvaccinated pouring over the border do not constitute open borders. Nodding along with something apparently no longer means that you’re in agreement.
Not that I have a dog on the fight by the mental gymnastics sometimes are absurd.
I think Jews know to stick with team that does not support very fine Klan torch holders or Camp Auschwitz tshirt guys at an insurrection.
Covid in Texas schools update
172,000 students
31,000 staff
32 students per 1,000 have tested positive this school year
I still think we will hit 250,000 cases in students and staff by Halloween
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/17/texas-schools-covid-19-cases/
Really was pence at one of those rallies? I missed that.
Again, not that I have available dog in the fight but at the very least anti zii I onism is a big issue on the radical left. Harris is part of that.
Militant Muslims, soci@lists, and BLM Part of the Americas is the root of all evils platform.
And hey, they cheered on Colbert or whoever when he announced that the census white population declined if you want to go there. The left is full of hate. It’s what holds them together.
Bystander: Whether you admit it or not, there is a lot of anti semitism on the left, and the so called Squad as they are known are anti Semitic, it’s clear in my mind. Those on the left should condemn it, it will continue to grow, and the more discontented this country becomes it will be blame the Jews time; history shows it always is. As for many on the right , away from the examples you give ; not politicians I note , there is strong support for Israel, especially among Evangelicals. Watch and see , anti Semitism will continue to grow, for now it’s covered by anti Israel, but that’s where it’s going in my view.
Chi, you need help, professional help.
More dumbness from the GQP.
Rep. Madison Cawthorn
@RepCawthorn
Why do we not use cryptocurrency as the new gold standard?
Didn’t Cathie wood officially lose more than she made for her clients during the entire run up given she took on all that inflow right before the drop?
Right posing as left.
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/09/30/texas-man-24-admits-shooting-at-minneapolis-police-station-during-riot
Texas man, 24, admits shooting at Minneapolis police station during riot
Hunter admitted that he fired 13 rounds from an AK-47-style rifle into the 3rd precinct police station on May 28, 2020, as other rioters looted and set fire to the building after police evacuated. No one was struck by the gunfire.
After shooting at the building, Hunter was recorded on video high-fiving another person and yelling “Justice for Floyd!” Investigators matched the skull mask Hunter was wearing in the video to a photo on his Facebook page.
Prosecutors say Hunter came to Minneapolis in the days following Floyd’s murder after corresponding on Facebook with Michael Solomon of New Brighton, Minn., and Benjamin Teeter of Hampstead, N.C. The men had been part of the “Boogaloo Bois,” a group that exploits tensions to further violence.
Phoenix, good luck with the recovery. Make sure you ask for the Brett Kavanaugh Treatment plan. You know they’ll throw the kitchen sink at him, to keep him going.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/politics/brett-kavanaugh-covid-19/index.html
United we stand, divided we fall. Getting close to that 50/50 point.
“America thinks the unthinkable: More than half of Trump voters and 41% of Biden supporters want red and blue states to SECEDE from one another and form two new countries, shock new poll finds “
We should go back to Jan/Fen 2021 and review all the posts here……you are correct.
Lather; Rinse; Repeat….. just the names change.
BRT says:
October 1, 2021 at 3:15 pm
Didn’t Cathie wood officially lose more than she made for her clients during the entire run up given she took on all that inflow right before the drop?
White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday defended House Democrats’ tax plan in the face of criticism that the legislation would see taxes and consumer prices rise for many Americans. Psaki insisted President Joe Biden is committed to keeping taxes the same for anyone making less than $400,000 a year, and she called it “absurd” that companies would raise consumer prices in response to higher taxes.
“There are some … who argue that, in the past, companies have passed on these costs to consumers,” Psaki said. “We feel that that’s unfair and absurd, and the American people would not stand for that.”
The brilliance of the left amazes me. Their minds are just poisoned beyond belief by visions of a communitarian s0c1ety.
Keep taking shots. Again, name a better performing ETF since 2014….but keep focusing on the short term after a massive runup.
BRT says:
October 1, 2021 at 3:15 pm
Didn’t Cathie wood officially lose more than she made for her clients during the entire run up given she took on all that inflow right before the drop?
I went to a school board meeting over the summer. The GQP are going nuts over CRT. Its starting to get ugly as some were calling for.
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/northernvalley/news/death-threats-troubling-images-sent-to-hackensack-school-board-members-not-up-for-re-election/817320/
Phoenix: Concerning, but this goes to show both sides are simpletons. NY/NJ are blue states as in the main population center, but travel up the NYS Thruway , and you will find predominantly, Republican/ Red mindset. Same in western/southern portions of NJ, and Northern California, and rural Washington and Oregon states. Residents in the eastern rural portions of theses two states have discussed splitting away and joining Idaho as they feel their politics/ worldview would fit in there. As we in the Red states, their are people who would identify as Blue. So, what do we do we’re states to secede based on Red/Blue politics? Would we engage in population transfers? I don’t think secession is out of the question, I just don’t know how it would work, and where the lines would be drawn. I have been saying for years the system is broken, and it is. Maybe we need to look at being more of a confederation vs a federation. However, as my immigrant Father always said if the USA goes that will be the end. I agree.
F M,
Thanks. It’s a hit to the system, but unless it suddenly reverses course I think I’ll be fine although winded for a time. If you have a pulse it’s a good day.
I look at the Daily Mail and all you see is the dysfunction in America. I’m beginning to wonder how much more it can take.
I just want to get back to work as I generally enjoy what I do, and others have to pick up the slack. I also hope that no one I work with gets this from me.
Fast: I saw that too. She is clueless! I can’t believe she would make such a stupid statement. What does that even mean wont stand for it? Are they going to sit down for it? Morons left and right!
The biggest rac1sts are the virtuous left, by far! They are competing for attention and the proceeds from the productive portion of s0c1ety so they will stab, smear, tarnish, defame, vilify and slander anyone and everyone they can to champion their cause.
What is GQP?
Don’t worry folks….. the Feds are paying for it; the quality will be there; no chance of graft…. just ask FlabMax…… any concerns? Blame the Jews.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/01/mlks-daughter-slams-unacceptable-lunches-at-nj-school/
Fab – Hackensack? Did you even look at the picture? That picture of a target, well they are white guys..
That kind of hate crime is never really fully investigated and rarely prosecuted, especially in a town that is full of Guatemalans.
Last census says Hackensack is 42% Hispanic, 24% White, 22% Black and 11% Asian…
What does that city named after the famed mighty Hackensack River have against white guys?
Anecdotal a co-worker who lives in Hackensack is from Guatemala. Her husband lost both parents to Covid last year, very sad story husband went in for surgery in March 2020 and ended up bringing Covid home from Hackensack Hospital…Patient Zero for New Jersey was there at the time.
Chi _ Paterson runs lunch in house…District employees..
Breakfast is too eary for lthem it’s contracted out.
Juice: Get with the times , it’s called The Sack now!
Murphy gives back the Covid gas tax raise.
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/northernvalley/news/njs-gas-tax-drops/817344/
I don’t know about all of this but when I was in grade school the “lunch ladies” were mothers or grandparents of kids in the schools. Food wasn’t great but man, that stuff does look pretty awful…
Don’t worry folks….. the Feds are paying for it; the quality will be there; no chance of graft…. just ask FlabMax…… any concerns? Blame the Jews.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/01/mlks-daughter-slams-unacceptable-lunches-at-nj-school/
The GQP is what’s left of the GOP after the Q takeover and all the moderates like Shore Guy and the rest of the sane adults, left the party.
My kid asked me yesterday if she could vote in 2024 as she will turn 18 just before the election. If 15yolds are asking, it shows how much Team R are in trouble if they cant get gerrymandering and voter suppression to work.
BTW – The solution to the horrible school meal problem in some cities is to thrown more money at it, bigger contracts etc. Private equity is just starting to jump in. As I said they took a stake in the 45 year old family run company that supplies school meals to my town. Pretty soon SPAC and well billions for the investors..
Gonna be a fun day at soccer tomorrow, we have a few parents that are teachers in NYC. They have all told me privately they want WFH.
BTW the most liberal Judge said no..Fking WAY.
“Supreme Court declines to block New York City’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for teachers”
WASHINGTON – The Supreme Court on Friday declined to block New York City’s requirement that public school teachers receive COVID-19 vaccinations, marking the second time the nation’s high court has declined to wade into the issue.
A group of teachers in New York had asked the Supreme Court for an emergency injunction to block implementation of the mandate, which required them to receive a shot by 5 p.m. Friday or face suspension without pay when schools open Monday.
Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor denied the emergency request without comment. A federal appeals court earlier in the week permitted New York’s mandate. “
Yup, could be looking at a dead cat bounce right now.
“I’m going to pound this drum until it doesn’t work. Interest rates can go negative in 2022. Remember when people said Oil couldn’t go negative ?”
https://twitter.com/dilksjay/status/1444052027865239556?s=21
Juice: I thought NYC teachers had a residency requirement?
The legendary Boardy Barn in Hampton Bays is for sale, You Jersey boys may not be familiar with it, but what a place!!
I know people already mentioned this poll, but The daily reckoning predicted around 15-20 years ago the US would dissolve into 3 or 4 new countries based on political lines
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10050039/More-HALF-Trump-voters-want-red-states-secede-union.html
Keep in mind, this person is still talking about “Russian collusion”. Not exactly immune to wild eyed conspiracies.
3B – never realized you were a Playa..
Were you there for the opening?
https://www.boardybarn.com/history
Juice: I was a bit of a wild one back in the day! Lots of partying , the Hamptons, the Catskills, and bars in 4 out of the 5 boroughs ( no Staten Island), and up through Westchester. No not at the opening, I am not that old!!
3B – Nope many are living or were in the high rises in Ft Lee and NJ Hudson River waterfront etc and for the NYC employees that the residency does apply too Cops and Firemen etc…for them it extends the six NY counties surrounding NYC – Nassau, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester, so not really a requirement other than the first 2 years.
Teacher I am speaking of just traded up and moved. BTW I am glad we don’t talk real estate at soccer. Also this teacher is a great person helped me with an IEP issue, also works in NYC with the kids that were born on a dead end road in life.
From an investment standpoint, can’t lose unless they break it up.
“So I’ve changed my mind. Facebook is a monopoly like the world has never seen. It has more power to influence, manipulate and change thoughts, opinions, votes and purchase decisions on a global scale than any nation or government. It has an army of lobbyists who stymie effective regulation or oversight.”
https://apple.news/AuHsQ-Rp2T_ezDQLTOhnt2g
Pumps -get a grip already.. AOL had the exact same power to influence, minus mobile because it did not exist.
777 Broadway was leased by AOL.
Guess who leases it now…Facebook!!!
Juice: Did not know that about teachers; the NYC ones I know live in Westchester or Rockland . I would think from your area to NYC would be a hassle, drive, train, then have to get to uptown Manhattan or the other boroughs.
Hold: That map while reflecting general and red and blue is too
Simplistic, lots of population transfers on both sides, but more from blue to red. Also the area are not contingent to each other. That said nothing is forever. Rome, the British Empire, Soviet Union.
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3b – A very nice retired NYC teacher “Marilyn” lives nearby, been here since 1977 taught in Staten island, told me the deal etc…
Juice: Staten Island would be doable from your are, your sir to the Bronx would be a haul .
Interesting piece on the chip shortage for new cars.
https://jalopnik.com/i-asked-experts-why-carmakers-cant-just-transition-to-n-1847739665