From NJ Monthly:
How Covid-19 Changed the Way We Work in New Jersey
When Governor Phil Murphy signed an unprecedented executive order in March 2020 directing New Jersey’s 9 million residents to stay home, the state’s schools and nonessential businesses to shut down, and employers to let their employees work from home if possible, O’Daniels and her colleagues worked remotely for a few weeks. Then, they were furloughed. Finally, in July, O’Daniels was laid off, and her nearly 20-year tenure in the hotel industry came to an end. Her husband, who was also working in hospitality, was laid off around the same time. “I was devastated,” she says.
Between February and April 2020, New Jersey lost jobs in all of its major private-industry sectors, and unemployment spiked from 3.8 to 16.6 percent, according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. By June 2020, 1.24 million New Jersey workers, or about 28 percent of the labor force, had filed for unemployment benefits, either to make up for a lost job or lost hours.
O’Daniels was able to secure a job three months later as a sales consultant for the catalog-websites Wine Enthusiast and Wine Express, in a different industry where her skills were transferable. “I sold myself,” she says of convincing the hiring manager that she was the right person for the position, even though she didn’t fit the typical mold for an employee. But not every local job seeker has been so fortunate.
Now, almost two years later, the job market and the economy are being reshaped by a global pandemic that has had unpredictable repercussions. New Jersey workers and employers continue to pick up the pieces and adapt to an ever-changing situation.
“We are going through a reset,” says James W. Hughes, dean emeritus of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy and a professor at Rutgers University. “We are not going back to the old normal. We are going to the next normal. We are going to have to live with Covid-19 and its variants. It’s not going away.”
Jobs Day! Data out at 8:30!
Consensus is +447k and UE down a tenth to 4.1%
Snow Day! We definitely got more than forecast in Wayne.
Hearing about crazy levels of workplace transmission, like whole small businesses with all employees having caught covid.
Some of the test positivity numbers are outrageous as well. Some communities in the Bronx with a 50% positivity? Holy crap.
I think it’s overly optimistic that the omicron wave is currently peaking. We’re going to see regional flareups for weeks and weeks as this thing works it’s way into new communities and less-connected populations.
Up to 80% of FL will have caught COVID-19 by end of omicron wave, UF report says
According to a new report from the University of Florida, most of the state’s population will become infected with coronavirus in the latest omicron wave.
UF biostatisticians have been studying the way that the omicron variant behaves. They say data shows that omicron is twice as infectious as delta and spreads quicker, too.
“So you combine those two things and you get a very fast, large epidemic,” Ira Longini said.
Longini is a UF professor and one of the researchers who worked on the report. So how large of an epidemic are they predicting? This large:
“Probably 70 to 80% of the state will either get infected in this wave or have been infected in a prior wave,” Longini said.
We are going to have to live with Covid-19 and its variants. It’s not going away.”
We’ve been doing so since the beginning of time. What a genius! What’s changed now is that people aren’t commuting to an office five days per week. It’ll be a hybrid at best. I was on a call with a client in Miami yesterday. He was with a company that planned to go back to the office full time last October. He said nope, so he switched jobs. Didn’t take him long.
Nothing like a TibFib in the morning. Comments are priceless. Job security baby!
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/rxltvy/bottom_line_if_you_hit_a_woman_they_could_crush/
Dudes going to need some serious surgery on that leg. My dad worked at Stryker for a while – was fun when he brought home external fixator hardware, space age erector set.
Grim,
Carbon fiber, or stainless?
The new carbon fiber is lit.
That guy is getting a kickstand to boot. Should have let the women fight it out.
Oh it was all carbon fiber and fancy colored anodized hardware. I mean, the stuff that went into your bones was all this fancy stainless alloy, but the rest was aluminum and carbon fiber.
Still use that. Best there is on the market. I love using that stuff. With this weather will be using it plenty.
Phoenix,
I believe my knee is cobalt, nickel, titanium with a polyurethane spacer. Stryker is/was the main culprit in the whole procedure.
Hiring falters in December as payrolls rise only 199,000 – Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 422,000 in December.
Thanks, Joe!
Phoenix
The comments were great.
I laughed at the video. I must lack empathy . Or grew up watching the 3 stooges.
Covid Hospitalizations in NJ a tick higher. We should be nearing peak from holiday gathering spread soon.
1/6 5,621 (discharges 834 so approx 857 admissions)
1/5 5,598 (discharges 858 so approx 724 admissions)
1/4 5,464 (discharges 693 so approx 1,002 admissions)
1/3 5,155 (discharges 425 so approx 863 admissions)
1/2 4,717
1/1 4,274
12/31 4,042
12/30 3,864
The line at my local drive up Covid center was the longest I’ve seen. Was over 25 cars yesterday morning. Positivity rate is over 35%.
Texas had -almost 45,000 new cases yesterday. Wondering if we will hit 100k a day in a week or 2.
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/
Don’t go out there and have a heart attack shoveling….The ERs are packed with covid patients, they are all low on beds, and community spread in the hospitals must be very high too.
Hearing about crazy levels of workplace transmission, like whole small businesses with all employees having caught covid.
3 weeks ago, my school had 15% test positive in a 2 weeks span. Another 20% stayed home with a “cold”. Another 10% tested positive over break. Considering that half of my students last year had a previous infection, we are approaching 100% infected in my district over the 2 year span. 3 students I know had 2 infections. The other thing is, every student that I know had it last year other than 1 didn’t get it during the explosion.
The reality is, you can’t hide from this one unless you are willing to give up your life. It’s achieved near maximum transmissibility. It’s pointless. My son’s friends family tried hiding for 2 years. They didn’t let their kid do anything with him indoors for 2 years. They haven’t been anywhere indoors for 2 years. They had 3 shots and their son/daughter had 2. Last week, they finally asked if my son could come inside. 2 days later, they all have it. I mean, they are fine….but seriously, the first day they let their guard down, they got it.
Grim, it blow through our production facilities, at the worst they running on 15% of the workforce. And masks were mandated before the outbreak.
Officially pulled out of 401k. I know it’s not smart to time the market, but I’ll take my chances. See how it goes, but will be jumping into 100% small cap position when I do.
Was shaking doing it, because being in the market is the smart move, but I already lost over 12,000 past couple days and not giving big bucks back. It just seems obvious that a correction is coming.
BS, this is the time! ARKG, Bet the house!
Bitcoin looks like it may hit 28k sooner than later. Anyone going to buy when it eventually bottoms?
Seems like my wife and I are among the few who haven’t caught it yet.
Even went to the Gator Bowl and pre-game party before New Year’s eve in Jacksonville where there were plenty of sad Rutgers fans down from NJ to seed the infections.
Just yesterday I dined indoors with an AC vent blowing on me. Maybe that will do it.
If I’m going to get it, 8 weeks after my Moderna booster seems like a good time.
If you are tired of waiting for covid to get you head down to the waiting room at the local hospital and sit down for a while.
Unemployment down to 3.9%..wow…thanks Joe. Can he post this on Twitter everyday so his fans can claim he is the greatest of all time?
speaking of Rutgers, they went virtual, even though they made all the kids get 3 shots. With the amount of money they are charging, what idiot would pay for that?….especially in the science & engineering programs. You miss out on all your labs? Companies are going to have major issues hiring these kids to do anything. It’s a kin to watching a youtube video on skiing and then trying to go down the mountain.
If you are tired of waiting for covid to get you head down to the waiting room at the local hospital and sit down for a while.
You are not kidding. If you didn’t come for covid, you’ll leave with covid.
Pumps – China crackdown on owning any crypto offshore will do that.
Huobi and Binance are booting them off, cashing them out etc, tens of millions of accounts being shut down from trading.
Read this statement from the founder of Huobi sounds like he and his family have a gun to their heads.
”
Huobi’s complete removal from China has a significant relationship with its founder Li Lin’s presence in the country. On October 6, Li said that he didn’t want to go abroad, as his family and children were in China, and they didn’t want to go abroad. “After a few months in Shanxi, I realized that only my family can’t live without us,” Li Lin said. “Without Huobi, there will be Binance and ok. If you are disappointed, I am sorry.”
https://pandaily.com/huobi-initiates-removal-of-tens-of-millions-of-chinese-users-internal-structure-greatly-adjusted/
BTW the crypto folks claim it’s all the bad economic news here, Fed tapering, interest rates, Covid surge. Next thing you know they will blame the unemployment numbers today as if their rigged casino has ANYTHING to do with the real economy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/01/06/the-feds-warning-crashes-bitcoin-and-crypto-prices-a-shaky-year-ahead/?sh=3c2ccde6499e
BTW the crypto folks claim it’s all the bad economic news here, Fed tapering, interest rates, Covid surge. Next thing you know they will blame the unemployment numbers today as if their rigged c*as*ino has ANYTHING to do with the real economy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/01/06/the-feds-warning-crashes-bitcoin-and-crypto-prices-a-shaky-year-ahead/?sh=3c2ccde6499e
re: You are not kidding..
The second best place would be the breeze way at the supermarket. Just stand there for a few minutes and breath in the aerosols.
Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. Crypto takes the elevator up and the window down.
Ironic, since many of those scenarios would typically drive alternative asset classes (like gold), higher.
I can’t wait to dive in. Patience, the time will come.
BRT says:
January 7, 2022 at 9:01 am
BS, this is the time! ARKG, Bet the house
Anecdotal details on hospitalizations:
My mother was just admitted to RWJ in NB yesterday. She arrived at 1pm and didn’t get a bed in the Respiratory Care unit until 9 am today. While she had covid, she needed to go to the hospital due to a pulmonary embolism that developed. Gave her heparin to break it up and she’s breathing better now.
Hospitals are definitely inundated.
Hope the housing market gets lit on fire and thrown from the rooftop. The most absurd of all the bubbles and middle-aged pudgies with a face for radio are my target. When you kid’s barber texts her clients that she is now a licensed realtor..well draw your own conclusions on how it will end.
Me, husband, daughter, son in law, and two grandsons all had the bug during Christmas/New Years. My other daughter’s family has so far has eluded it, my son in law is afraid of losing his sense of smell/taste as he is El Exigente for his brewery.
Lurks sorry to hear, hope she recovers quickly.
No visitor policy right? I hope they are doing no visitors especially if you are an senior citizen.
Prayers for who needs them, but I’m glad to see so many here coming through it.
We are in the Army now…the recruiter never mentioned diaper duty.
Governor Murphy Announces New Jersey National Guard Deployment to Assist Long-Term Care Facilities
01/6/2022
TRENTON – Governor Murphy today announced that the New Jersey National Guard will be deploying to long-term care facilities throughout New Jersey to assist with COVID-19 response efforts and to augment facilities’ staffing. This is an extension of Joint Task Force COVID Guardian, which has provided coordinated assistance to numerous long-term care facilities since the first weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Time and time again, the New Jersey National Guard has stepped up to the plate throughout this pandemic,” said Governor Murphy. “This deployment will send members of our National Guard to long-term care facilities with staffing needs and will act to protect the health and safety of long-term-care residents while the Omicron variant surges throughout the nation.
“COVID-19 is still a threat to our New Jersey communities,” said Department of Military and Veterans Affairs Commissioner Brig. Gen. Lisa Hou, D.O. “The Soldiers and Airmen of the New Jersey National Guard are working hard every day to protect public health.”
“We are grateful to the National Guard for their assistance in caring for the residents of those facilities most in need,” said Department of Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli. “Throughout this pandemic, protecting our most vulnerable residents has been paramount. As we have seen in the community, COVID-19 cases and outbreaks have been rising for several weeks in our long-term care facilities. We continue to work closely with long-term care facilities throughout the state to ensure that they have the staff they need.”
Approximately 150 Soldiers and Airmen of the New Jersey National Guard are preparing to support staffing requirements of more than a dozen long-term care facilities around the state. Guard members will assist regular staff with a variety of tasks, including administrative and logistical support. Members are undergoing training and work is anticipated to start at their assigned locations on Monday, January 10, 2022.
Tasks that National Guard members will assist with will include:
Assist residents with getting from bed to chair, walking
Assistance in dressing and daily hygiene activities
Meal set-up and feeding
Routine assistance
Testing and screening staff, residents, and visitors’
Juice:
Correct. No visitor policy in place so I’ve only been facetiming her and even then, trying to limit it so she gets rest. I’m not very worried but just a bit concerned because I’m SURE there’s more hospitalizations on the horizon – especially among senior citizens.
Lurks: Speedy recovery to your Mom.
There is a big seasonality in the hospitalizations. They said earlier in the week that 45% of the hospitalizations were for non covid. It’s a shame they can’t normalize the data but it might not support the narrative so they won’t risk it.
Same argument we’ve been having for two years.
Died from covid, died with covid.
Hospitalized from covid, hospitalized with covid.
The fact is, the methodology hasn’t changed, so the numbers are still comparable.
Not to mention that the overhead associated with covid cases continues to crowd out others, and put others at risk.
Speaking of Crytpo..
Ethereum 2.o looks pretty damm interesting. Plan is to get off proof of work (dirty mining) and go to proof of stake this year, and the new stake to become a validator is about $120k upfront or 32 Eth or allot less $ if you join a mining pool.
You can run these new Eth 2.0 validator nodes (to make money on transactions) on a phone or raspberry PI. There will be no need to download the entire mainnet blockchain etc. It doubled in size in the least year so less infrastructure needed and way more distributed.
Two hour watch from Monday’s Q & A on YouTube of Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin speaking with a vlogger called Bankless on the roadmap.
Too technical for many of you here but give it a try if you think you have the chops.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1m_PTVxD-s
I am still questioning the utility ofcoure. You can build it but will they come?
Proof of stake sounds like a nice way to monopolize the transaction processing. I’m sure they’ll limit the number of validators, or limit the number of licenses (like medallions).
It matters when the peaks happen and whether they occur with seasonality. There is distortion.
We are in the Army now…the recruiter never mentioned diaper duty.
I posted this the other day when I went out with my buddy who is in the National Guard. He said Murphy is using them as his personal labor force. First, deployed them down to DC and made them sit/sleep/eat garbage for a month. Now every single one of them are in the long term care facilities. He said, everyone is disgruntled and they all literally say they didn’t sign up to “wipe sh1t”
Eddie you are a cunt.
BRT – Canadian forces are also on diaper duty.
Might be a good time to invade no?
we could always invade Canada. We could literally do it with the NYPD.
Ex,
How did you celebrate erecti0n day yesterday?
“If you are tired of waiting for covid to get you head down to the waiting room at the local hospital and sit down for a while.”
Try working there for 12 hours. Not just Covid we deal with.
But teachers need a paid day off for 2 inches of snow or a sniffle.
Can’t get those tootsies moist!
On Dec 17, Cathie Wood made the bold (possibly violating SEC rules) prediction of a 40% return over the next four years for her funds because they were in “deep value” territory. The close of ARKK that day was 97.2. Given the current price of ARKK (84.80), for her prediction to hold, ARKK must now rise 45% for four years straight. Good luck.
Eddie,
You only put Stryker knees in Repubs.
All others get Zimmer.
All joking aside, sorry that happened to you. But for knees and hips, for me, it’s Zimmer all the way. Ex fix/trauma Stryker/Synthes is the way to go.
11:17 Yesterday was chamber of commerce nice in SoCal. I just picked my little soon to be ‘classic’ M car up from the mechanic – new belt and two pulley’s. It’s so quiet now it.
Sat by the pool with my wife and three dogs. Soaked up the sun.
I go back into the classroom on Monday.
TDS? Definitely.
Phoenix, you monster.
He said Murphy is using them as his personal labor force.
Are they working in private owned nursing homes? If so, they are free labor for the owners.
You could make them temporary police officers, then send the police to the nursing homes.
Now that would be entertaining having them yell, “get on the ground, stop resisting” as they stand over them with a wet wipe.
For your ears only:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rviIIuGC1Xw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWerMkRAAWg
Ex,
Bring it on. I have been called much worse by my ex. She abused my daughter as well.
I remind her of it, cause I recorded it and gave it to DYFS.
I’m not kidding about how f’in great that little car feels.
Analog. No screens or BS.
Just a straight six and a road feel crafted by elves in the Black Forest. The place of my grandmother’s childhood. She was especially proud when I got my first Bimmer. Lord knows she was mistreated by that GodForesaken country.\\
My mechanic recommended to me by a Trump-loving fellow who owns to local Herb”a”life stand.
The Mechanic can literally do anything in his shop these cars require. He builds racers and also does vintage Alpha Romeos. He has this little Kraut Wagon so dialed in it is like a Sewing Machine.
It’s wonderful to wind that little car out on some of the roads around here. It’s grip is so direct to the ground. I’ve never driven a car that feels better on the road.
Yes, I know Porsches and some newer Subarus will dust me. But you know what? I don’t care. It’s HP rating is quaint for today’s muscle. I am rack up memories in that little car, 4 seats to take people out. Ragtop is essential. Like a therapy session.
Lurks,
Hope mama gets better.
PE?
She dodged a bullet there. Have her pick your numbers for the lottery.
11:37 The holidays must be especially tough for singletons.
Ex,
For some reason when I read your last post I pictured Danny DeVito driving a BMW.
Don’t know why.
Phoenix,
Stryker was the machine that cut my knee, I presume the mechanics placed are Stryker? I had the link with the mechanisms used but I can’t find it at the moment.
Ex,
No shortage of female elves in a hospital.
Mako.
Actually supposed to be a good system.
Implants, just like car manufactures, always have their duds. Toyota has had some bad cars, but not as much as BMW.
Sometimes the problem is the patient with these things, just like sometimes the problem is with the driver.
Have a good day.
Somewhere in the world someone is getting run over by an Escalade and needs a broken bone fixed.
Stay away from Karen.
Outmaneuver that big hulking mass of gravity best you can I suppose.
Brings me to the Bilsteins. Absolute perfection. *sigh* gear heads understand.
Yes, Mako. I went home that night. The surgeon was a bit surprised but I was walking as soon as I woke up and the inhouse therapist gave the surgeon the thumbs up for the release. My rehab was quick… attributed probably because I biked a lot for the last number of years. The PT asked me if I was an athlete or played sports (lol) because of the muscle tone. I laughed, told her it was years of on and off biking.
Pops did a lot of QC on implants for Pfizer/Howmedica and then Stryker after they were bought.
A lot of knees and hips were manufactured in East Rutherford, and then moved – with some going up to Allendale.
That’s big $$$$ manufacturing.
Speaking of, he left there to run QC on the OxyContin manufacturing line for Purdue in Totowa.
Fun fact – working with the raw materials for OxyContin was so dangerous, they needed to suit up with positive pressure suits and respirators. Accidental inhalation would probably kill you, and something as simple as static could kick up enough to do it.
11:43 my pops told me once “that car is a little small for you” but I never got that. I’m kind of a larger gentleman. But lost a shitTon of weight this past viral adventure. Anyhow. If it don’t kill you, it’ll only make you stronger. In fact I am one happy camper is exactly that car. It’s been so gratifying to “bring it back from the brink” — not for the faint of heart, but these really are the German muscle cars similar to a Mustang that really handles. Same ideology. Go Fast.
12:01 Good on ya! if my job didn’t require so much moving about I’d be dead now. Left to my own devices I will lay about. Typical Liberal, AmIRite.
New case record today, 33,459 PCR confirmed.
As soon as majority of people realize that inflation already peaked, and that deflation is the issue, should be huge run up in these high growth stocks. So sometime this year or next year, they will realize it.
“As inflation surged to a nearly four-decade high in the US, the central bank began to double the pace of winding down its bond purchases. Most recently, Fed minutes published on Wednesday suggest that interest rate hikes may come sooner and faster than investors were expecting.
Tech stocks, especially high-growth firms with lofty valuations, tend to lag in a rising-rate environment as higher borrowing costs make it harder for companies to grow and render their future cash flows less attractive.
“What we know is that unprofitable technology companies don’t do well in that type of environment,” Tuttle said. “If you are a value manager and value stocks are tanking, you are not going to do well. You could be the best money manager in the world, you are not going to navigate that environment.”
The other impetus for launching the fund is what he sees as an unmet need for a good hedge against unprofitable tech companies. He explains that while there are inverse ETFs that short the Nasdaq, those funds are effectively shorting the FAANG stocks.
“No one ever got rich shorting those companies, it’s not a great hedge,” he said. “And it’s also not something you can hold on to for a long period of time because eventually, we know that the Nasdaq is going to snap back, we don’t know that ARKK is going to snap back anytime soon.”
To be sure, ARKK encountered similar setbacks in 2015 and 2016 before making a comeback in 2017. It slipped again during 2018’s mini taper tantrum but cemented Wood’s position as a star investor by returning a whopping 157% in 2020, according to Morningstar.”
Impact of emotional panic of 4 decade high inflation. Wish they would realize it is not going to last. At least creating nice buy opportunities.
“At no other point since 1999 have so many stocks been cut in half while the Nasdaq was so close to highs.”
My charitable snow shoveling is getting out of hand.
I now do my two homes. The aging neighbor on my right (husband died in the Spring last year). The aging morons sidewalk to the right of my multi, even though their tenants went all Karen on me for removing that tree in the Summer. The walks on the home to the left of my multi (in exchange to them doing their side of the 40 foot long hedge. Then the driveway and walks of the family across the street from my multi whose kid caught some crazy sickness that turned him into a vegetable a few years back.
It’s all about Karma. That’s what I keep telling myself. It’s also a valuable lesson to my older son. It’s a great workout too.
I do my older neighbor, she throws me a few bucks to keep the big machine running.
Behemoth snow blower makes karma easy.
Shut up. You have no dry powder, and are undisciplined. You are tapped out right now and sh!tting bricks. I don’t have to look at your financials.
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 7, 2022 at 9:53 am
I can’t wait to dive in. Patience, the time will come.
BRT says:
January 7, 2022 at 9:01 am
BS, this is the time! ARKG, Bet the house
Please don’t use that word here….even if you use it in the British sense…
Ex says:
January 7, 2022 at 11:03 am
Eddie you are a cunt.
Uh oh….. better get Mako.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=047BfmFdMrM
Phoenix says:
January 7, 2022 at 11:49 am
Mako.
Actually supposed to be a good system.
Have you ever heard of the CAPM you stupid fcuk?
https://hbr.org/1982/01/does-the-capital-asset-pricing-model-work
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 7, 2022 at 12:55 pm
As soon as majority of people realize that inflation already peaked, and that deflation is the issue, should be huge run up in these high growth stocks. So sometime this year or next year, they will realize it.
751,512 new cases today in the U.S.
Thanks, Joe!
Sounds like the start of a JJ story.
“grim says:
January 7, 2022 at 1:18 pm
I do my older neighbor, she throws me a few bucks to keep the big machine running.”
Hold, best post a long time.
I’ve got more dry powder than any other point in my investing life. It feels like I’m standing at the cr@ps table, having somehow established six “no” numbers through the don’t come with full odds, without hitting a single 7 or 11. I still have my hard way hedges 4,6,8,10 too. Sure, I could easily lose on the 5 and 9 and it’s possible I even lose a 4 or 10 the easy way. But, all it takes now is that one 7 out and I’m going to get a huge pile of chips while every0ne else at the table is biting their nails.
I’ve only played for the market to drop three times in my life including currently. It’s a heck of a tough bet considering the long-term trend of the market is +8% annually or so. In my view, two things must be in place. Incredible macroeconomic headwinds that follow a period of bubbly returns for nearly everyone. I don’t short the market either and I don’t utilize leverage. Those who need leverage are gambling, not investing.
For nearly a year, I’ve called for the max pain around tax season, which is not that far away. If it happens, that is a heck of a prescient call.
Hold,
That was pretty funny. Thanks for the laugh.
Stu: you saw my post re NJ 529?
We’ve had about 12 years of low consumer inflation, high asset inflation. Arguably 30 years of that, with falling interest rates, rising asset values, without much consumer inflation.
If we get even a few years of the reverse, people will absolutely lose their sh1t. Consumer inflation with asset deflation.
Don’t say it cannot happen. Lots of things can happen.
Investments in or correlated to equity markets is about 75% of my net worth, and I cannot sell or effectively hedge that until I retire which is probably at least a dozen years away. I’m looking for other less speculative assets. So not crypto, not NFTs, not fine art, not doing peer to peer loans so some teenager can make an app or gamble. Real estate doesn’t look all that great this moment, and I’ve already got over $3m in two houses (for living, not renting). I’d invest in some vacation rentable houses but at the moment it seems like bad timing with prices up 50% over the last 2 or 3 years. Short term bonds yield under inflation, with low volatility. Long term bonds also yield under inflation but with bigger downside risk. Seems like there isn’t a lot of middle-level risk assets with a decent return outlook.
Global equities are more richly priced than they have been since about 2000, but now it seems there are fewer alternatives than there were in 2000, thanks to central bankers pursuing financial repression.
Any ideas?
Justice Sotomayor, while considering a nation-wide vax mandate states:
– Claimed covid deaths are at an all time high – False.
– Claimed that Omicron has been deadlier than Delta
– Claimed 100K children are hospitalized with covid
– Said OSHA’s regulatory authority is a federal “police power.”
I suppose the last one is an opinion but the 1st three are obviously fabrications. The current pediatric Covid Census, per HHS = 3,374. Of course, all would love to see this be zero, but we have supreme court justice overstating reality by 30x.
We have been having a rolling correction/sell-off for months. At the end of the day, the selloff is going to be driven by The Fed. The thing is, once we get closer to November, Biden is going to be leaning on Powell in the other direction…. a great number of people are flush with cash and will be upset if their stocks go down.
Biden is in a hard place. We will not get logistics, supply chain, employment participation numbers back until he pulls the rug out from under the able bodied people sitting on their a$$es. Thems the hard facts. However, unless he pulls the rug out, we are going to be stuck with inflation. This whole set-up is an expensive mound of bull$hit, and hits America at its weakest point. We are resilient and work hard. If you take away our ambition, we are fcuked.
Libturd says:
January 7, 2022 at 3:21 pm
I’ve got more dry powder than any other point in my investing life. It feels like I’m standing at the cr@ps table, having somehow established six “no” numbers through the don’t come with full odds, without hitting a single 7 or 11. I still have my hard way hedges 4,6,8,10 too. Sure, I could easily lose on the 5 and 9 and it’s possible I even lose a 4 or 10 the easy way. But, all it takes now is that one 7 out and I’m going to get a huge pile of chips while every0ne else at the table is biting their nails.
I’ve only played for the market to drop three times in my life including currently. It’s a heck of a tough bet considering the long-term trend of the market is +8% annually or so. In my view, two things must be in place. Incredible macroeconomic headwinds that follow a period of bubbly returns for nearly everyone. I don’t short the market either and I don’t utilize leverage. Those who need leverage are gambling, not investing.
For nearly a year, I’ve called for the max pain around tax season, which is not that far away. If it happens, that is a heck of a prescient call.
The older brother I never had. Thanks, Chi.
chicagofinance says:
January 7, 2022 at 2:05 pm
Have you ever heard of the CAPM you stupid fcuk?
https://hbr.org/1982/01/does-the-capital-asset-pricing-model-work
In this cycle of the Fed with the potential for political interference, there is no shame in holding cash, and finding the highest yield for it possible (cash was 2018’s #1 returning asset class for USD based investors). You are overallocated to risk assets considering the junction of your career, you should pare back, or maintain. The other thing to consider is a no-fee version of a structured security, either one of those stupid wacko CD’s, or else an equity-linked annuity (annuity in name only). Not the first place to go, but you have run the gamut of options, and are looking for a serially uncorrelated/low-correlated exposure. I know that it philosophically is an non-starter, but getting something that will lock you for 7-10 years in exchange for novel exposure could a creative diversifier.
I don’t dabble in them, but they are out there for people in your position.
No One says:
January 7, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Investments in or correlated to equity markets is about 75% of my net worth
Any ideas?
“If you take away our ambition, we are fcuked.”
Pumping asset prices high and allowing lots of young idiots to become bitcoin millionaires is how we got here. Why work when you can gamble yourself rich and Oz Powell is backing it all. There is nothing lazier than the passive wealth that was created which allowed many older people to early retirement or say f-it to a real job..who needs it when I have rich portfolio? Fed has to take it down to rebuild it but no prez (or party) wants to be associated with it. America is mostly broke a$$ folks not gaining wealth via stock market and they are getting crushed with inflation.
I forgot with whom I was dealing….. you don’t need the structured product or EIA’s, just hold cash in conjunction with LEAPS. I would stick with the main indeces. I would work with technical analysis until the VIX or other vol compresses to the 200 day MA, and buy at that point. Obviously we are way elevated.
chicagofinance says:
January 7, 2022 at 4:14 pm
The other thing to consider is a no-fee version of a structured security, either one of those stupid wacko CD’s, or else an equity-linked annuity (annuity in name only). Not the first place to go, but you have run the gamut of options, and are looking for a serially uncorrelated/low-correlated exposure. I know that it philosophically is an non-starter, but getting something that will lock you for 7-10 years in exchange for novel exposure could a creative diversifier.
I don’t dabble in them, but they are out there for people in your position.
No One
No idea. Even collectibles have gone crazy. People are now getting magazines and VHS tapes graded like comic books and baseball cards. I think its mostly speculators looking for alternatives to stocks and real estate.
Go to ebay and type in VHS tape. Then scroll down and click on the sold button on the lower left side of the page and then sort by highest price. A factory sealed Top Gun went for $8,200 with 48 bids. And that’s not the most expensive VHS in the last 3 months.
Type magazine and do the same sold and then sort. And look at non sports cards and rookie cards of guys who have been playing for a year or two. It’s unbelievable. Feels like the dotcom craze in 1999.
Hold,
I shopped alot of ebay and Mercari over Xmas. My 5 year old son wanted Kidkraft Menorah wooden play set (not even Jewish; he just liked game). They stopped making it a few years ago and people trying to sell stupid $12 set for $90. My 7 year old loves trains. Lionel pushed prices in from $200 a cheap HO set in 2019 to now over $350-400. I shopped old Tyco garbage trains that my bro can get at auction for nearly free (usually), and going for $80-$100. Pure insanity now.
Someone bought two lego sets from me for $850 on ebay.
How ’bout that shit. Only one had a box.
Bystander: You are exactly right and I have been saying it for some time now. The Fed has to take it down in order to rebuild and for the younger generations that are coming up.
If that means a 20 percent or more drop in housing and stock prices, then so be it.
20% doesn’t even get us to last year’s prices.
If you didn’t catch it, it’s making it’s way around, but Justice Sotomayor showed today that she has zero scientific literacy.
BRT: I was just throwing a number out there, should be a bigger decline. But, there seems to be a mindset that the Fed can’t risk an asset price decline , and its responsibility is to ensure prices remain inflated. I think that is BS, and they need to correct the damage they have done these last 10 years or so. That will mean pain, and that is unfortunate, but the mess needs to be cleaned up.
No One: I wish leftwing would come back. I think he would really add some value to this discussion.
chicagofinance says:
January 7, 2022 at 4:21 pm
I forgot with whom I was dealing….. you don’t need the structured product or EIA’s, just hold cash in conjunction with LEAPS. I would stick with the main indeces. I would work with technical analysis until the VIX or other vol compresses to the 200 day MA, and buy at that point. Obviously we are way elevated.
3b: just remember that finance is a young man’s game. There are plenty of people who are 35-40 in management positions that have no understanding of a normally functioning fixed income market. It is frightening to ponder. …. and entitled (intellectually so)… they think unlimited liquidity and credit is to be expected. Think about how much sh!t out there would exist without this nonsense. Big sh!t. There would be no Tesla, no solar industry, Amazon would be a fraction of its size and influence, no Uber etc. So many people don’t get it. Wait…. maybe it is me? :(
3b says:
January 7, 2022 at 5:26 pm
BRT: I was just throwing a number out there, should be a bigger decline. But, there seems to be a mindset that the Fed can’t risk an asset price decline , and its responsibility is to ensure prices remain inflated. I think that is BS, and they need to correct the damage they have done these last 10 years or so. That will mean pain, and that is unfortunate, but the mess needs to be cleaned up.
Yes I agree. My point was, the fed consistently move the goal post of “can’t fall below” to last month’s price. In doing so, they’ve conditioned people to assume the acceptable loss is still far higher than it should be. It’s also conditioned people to buy the dip no matter what.
Yes. Chi. Will definitely do it until I move. Appreciate you pointing it out. Would have never known.
Good convo tonight. The LEAPS idea is very intriguing at a time like this. Will continue researching. Thanks for the idea. Me like it a lot here.
re: “Someone bought two lego sets”
Death Star?
lol
Collectable market is crazy. My friend is set to retire from selling what I consider worthless garbage. He’s currently unloading about 12k worth of NES video game instruction booklets.
re: “Wait…. maybe it is me?” &”unlimited liquidity ” & “asset price decline” & “inflation”
Fed is now paying banks 800 million a day to park 1.7 trillion overnight and not lend it out. Talk about an ostrich.. We cross the crossed the rubicon the point of no return years ago. We cannot change what has been done, so we keep moving forward with the same print and pray plan. There is no paying this off. Nobody can pay it off, the long math decades down the road does not work..
No worries folks inflation it is.. However the reality is the USA does not act alone. The entire world inflates along with us, and we do not demand gold as collateral. We simply ask for a swap of currency.Good or bad it works so far..
The MSM does not talk about other economies much but you can be sure many are loaded with debt that cannot be paid, way worse than here by a long shot. Most have no chance of invading the USA, so sleep well knowing that this not the same as what happened in the past..
Chi – re: ” I wish leftwing would come back”
YA Think it’s funny now? My wish was for a new years resolution, nobody to talk about that ETF now based in St. Petersburg.
I don’t know the guy but would like him back too…Heck let’s sacrifice a teacher to make it happen.
Beer – “Behemoth snow blower makes karma easy.”
Cumon that is funny too…
Two of the Pirates of the Caribbean ships.
Funny we were at Lego Land at the Mall of America over the holidays. Line was long “covid protocols” and all, kids did not want to wait even though we had quite a few great trips there over the years….. Oh well, have a few bins but like the movie toy story, my kids are no longer interested. Nothing sorted either. I don’t want the billion parts of plastic stuff headed to the landfills on my conscience. I am going to put them up on next door or FB soon.
Chgo: I agree, a whole generation as such that does not know how a functioning market or Federal reserve works. I clearly remember how you could hear a pin drop on the trading floor before a Fed announcement. Just praying you were on the right side of the call. We need those days back, real market, real risk! Fed will be dragged back there whether they want to or not in my opinion.
8:41 I volunteer as a tribute. Good riddance cunts.
Click on the link to listen. Esp, the part towards the end on China. After watching this, please explain to me how you can be afraid of inflation. Throughout this episode, she gives a ton of data to show that inflation is being overblown and will not last, and it already peaked.
BRT, since you are investing into commodities, you better give this a watch, esp the China part. If China’s economy gets smacked down, you might not realize the risk you are taking with your commodity play due to inflation.
After watching this, I believe in her more than ever. Stay away from the headlines and mainstream talking points, Cathie tells it how it is. This inflation scare is nothing more than bs. It will not be here for long. Long-term, you have to be invested in high growth based on the battle with deflation, not inflation.
“On Episode 24 of “In the Know,” ARK CEO/CIO @CathieDWood weighs in on the tech sell off, innovation stocks, autos, China, the tech & telecom bubble, and more. Watch our latest update.”
https://twitter.com/arkinvest/status/1479657063965933568?s=21
Howmedica
Now that’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time.
Wow. Want to read about a bunch of millennial con artists feeding off the elite. Well, here you go. It’s insane how the elite think they are so smart, yet buy into bs like this that makes them moving targets for the general population.
“Much to the frustration of some locals, machines have been drilling wells deep into the mountain in search of water. One day there will be 500 homes on the mountain, and a village with coffee shops, juice bars, restaurants, a sound studio and a five-star hotel.
Rosenthal takes me on a driving tour of the mountain, to explain how they plan to create a community that is different from exclusive resorts such as Aspen, Colorado. Restrictions prevent anyone from building a home larger than 4,500 sq ft, and residents must use vetted architects to ensure that their home is “subservient to the land” and in a style that has been called “heritage modernism”.
“None of the architecture should express taste or wealth,” Rosenthal says, nodding to the spot that will become a central promenade. “That is a very walkable main street – we will have soft Italian kerbs.””
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/16/powder-mountain-ski-resort-summit-elite-club-rich-millennials#comment-113654924
Comment from that article.
“I grew up in Eden, Utah, 15 minutes below Powder Mountain. I learned to snowboard on its slopes. Once, while snowboarding, I took a wrong turn and cut my way down through heavenly Utah-powder snow, ending up at the bottom of a deep canyon not located on the resort property. It remains one of my best snowboarding runs ever. And though I am glad that Mr. Lewis found his way through my hometown and up the narrow winding road that leads to these dilettante elite to record their self-evidently ridiculous and aloof perspectives on reality, I wish he would have stopped to ask one of the locals about what Summit has been up to. Perhaps he could have knocked at the door of one of the many homes that display the “Summit Sucks! (water)” sign on the front lawn. He could have asked them how they feel about Summit’s investment in the already-existing community. I am quite sure that they could tell him how the Summit group needs to learn how to live in a community before they build one. They could tell him about how the man who sold Powder Mountain to Summit was “run out of town” after he tried to work the system and circumvent the community’s involvement in the resort.
Of course, as Mr. Lewis’s column already shows, Summit is not concerned with reaching out to anyone in the local community, save for a few politicians. I suppose this detachment is why they bought the top of the mountain in the first place. Their story is a tried cliché and their involvement with local water supplies is perhaps the fatal turning point in their narrative. Generations of people in the western United States have fought à la Hatfields & McCoys over water rights and Summit should tread lightly. I do not wish ill will on those who would preserve such a beautiful place as Powder Mountain (though if Summit fails I admit that I will struggle with my schadenfreude) but, I ask, why can’t Summit work with the local community in a positive, direct way? Why live as the embodiment of irony, promising arcadia while looking down at Eden?”
BRT, since you are investing into commodities, you better give this a watch, esp the China part
umm, I sold buddy
BRT,
Just give the video a watch. It just might save you some money.
She is as transparent as they come. People that think she is an idiot have no clue. She is 66. She knows more than 99.9% of investors. She is not only doing this for money, this is her love. She created something she loves, and that passion is unstoppable.
At the end of the day, how many of these hacks complaining about her daily on mainstream financial media and in the male dominated finance world have done what she has? Did they put their money where their mouth is? Did they risk it all (she invested all her money to get these funds started at an older age when most are retiring) to create something they truly believe in? In a fund strategy that she invented, this has never been done before.
She knows her stuff, and combined with passion, why in the world would people mock it? Jumping on the train is not only easy, it’s smart. Technology and growth will dominate this decade.
https://patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/here-cheapest-house-sale-wayne-start-2022
Someone that gets it.
“Very interesting episode. Cathie on fire today.
GM will likely be the one to incur a loss next year. $F and $GM going up on shrinking market share and huge headwinds from future capEX is irrational.
ARK research is top notch. In the long term time horizon, amazing $ to be made
ARK might fall further in short term but we are not very far from the bottom. Market is inefficient and those knowing that will make money. Traders trolling Cathie should stick to their own picks and do a 5 year return comparison in future”
https://twitter.com/babaagyat/status/1479697425342210048?s=21
Then why aren’t you buying it right now? Dumb@ss
Because I want to risk that the market is irrational and will drive it down more. Prob dumb move, I never expected to be able to get arkg in the 50’s and should just load up, but at this point will risk that more downside is to come.
We are prob at peak hawk talk, so it is a dangerous to not buy now, but if she runs to 65 i will just take the L and buy.
Probably the most annoying part of Pumpkin’s ARK obsession is that despite all of his incessant proselytizing, I’m pretty certain he isn’t actually doing any trading on it whatsoever.
Show your trades to Grim. If there are any less than 10 in the past year then for the love love of all that is holy just STFU already. You aren’t convincing anyone here and you aren’t even following your own calls.
Agreed.
Anon,
I have OCD. I’ll try to control myself, but remember, I did the same thing with housing here when it was left for dead. Don’t you remember my posts screaming to buy housing from 2013-2017 and everyone would just laugh and mock me. This is no different imo. It seems my position is contrarian and laughable. We will see if I’m right again. Last decade it was housing, roarings 20’s2.0, and a return of wage inflation. This decade it’s a call on investing in disruptive innovation at a time most are running from it.
I’ll try hard to not bring it up.
Blondie fans: check this out…. served up by You Tube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLu39zXtlA4
You seriously need to stop. It’s been a year since you had your visionary idea, we told you why it wouldn’t work, we explained to you how exactly it would play out, now it has, and you are still talking smack. You are now claiming you took your 401k out of the market (another lie), so that if it crashes, you get to claim victory, but if ARKK comes back, you will still claim victory.
STFU already (that should be everyone)
no more trigger words please….stick to the New Year’s resolution..
Don’t make me beg either….It is not a pretty sight….Just ask my wife when I want to get some.
No signs of slowing down..
29,564 PCR positive today
5,253 antigen
Chgo: I loved Blondie back in the day, still do. Ahead of her time and just so hot, without looking like a ho! She was still touring up until a few years ago. She was still very popular in Europe. She is a Jersey girl, grew up in Hawthorne in Passaic Co.
Ask Juice. She lives down here and he stalks her house. She would be spotted from time to time at the ACME in Lincroft pre-COVID. Her brother-in-law owned the Lincroft Inn.
https://www.app.com/story/money/business/main-street/whats-going-there/2020/02/11/lincroft-tavern-construction-has-begun-replace-demolished-1697-inn/4713612002/
3b says:
January 8, 2022 at 12:21 pm
Chgo: I loved Blondie back in the day, still do. Ahead of her time and just so hot, without looking like a ho! She was still touring up until a few years ago. She was still very popular in Europe. She is a Jersey girl, grew up in Hawthorne in Passaic Co.
Chgo: I did not realize she lived in Lincroft. Last time I saw her she still looked good, older but still hot. She has to be in her mid 70s at this point.
Chi Debby Harry lives in Red Bank…if you did not know already.
If Blondie stops by your house be sure to have some rose hip tea on hand. Also a tray of wild caught smoked salmon with cream cheese, capers, onion, and a baguette. Better to remember her how she was, you don’t want to see her with no makeup or wig backstage now. Very nice person though.
Last month I worked with a guy who did the first tour catering. He had two full set ups including refrigerated trucks, mobile kitchens, and staff so they could leap frog the Stones’ Steel Wheel Tour. He even did the Pope tour in the 90’s when he came to the US.
Fun times comparing stories about the people we’ve worked for. When we retire there’s a good book there.
It was pretty incredible the acts you would see in small venues back in the day. CBGB, Bowery Ballroom, and Roseland Ballroom. Great places. Maxwell’s in Hoboken was fun too.
I stopped going to arena shows in my 20s. They totally suck. I guess I was spoiled in my college radio days by seeing so many major artists play in tiny venues like those you listed. You talk to any artist and they prefer the intimate venue to any arena. Unfortunately, it doesn’t pay the bills. I had a free CMJ music festival pass for six years in a row. I probably saw a show in nearly every venue in New York. Shame just a few remain. During my techno phase in college, these ballrooms were phenomenal places to trance out. I still can’t believe the Prodigy lead singer offed himself. So much talent.
I have the Black Pearl built in my basement. No Box, but I have the books. It was the one Christmas present my kid wanted that year. Ended up running around trying to find it and tracked one down in Hackensack Target. Kid built it over the holidays and then drew it in Art class when he got back to school. It wasn’t a great drawing so we had a trip to the counselors office for a chat.
The key thing to note is that the one time Punkin disclosed a clear start and end date for an investment idea of his, ARK, it was a clear disaster, and laughably dumb in how he failed to analyze and failed to listen to people with more experience and expertise than him. All his other claimed brilliance was vague and unmeasurable. He will still pretend his ARK call was brilliant historically and prospectively by making up and imagining start and end points that aren’t his.
He should save his song and dance for his wife, not us, as I think even the most foolish posters here would avoid Punkins investment ideas.
Lib, I remember getting to see a super tiny qotsa show with Dave Grohl and getting on tv just for emailing a Much Music email address online. The girl in marketing emailed me back and said she could get me in if I showed up in 2 hours. I ditched class and took the train over.
No one,
Growth stocks & crypto are designed to shake as many people out as possible. The economy wouldn’t run too efficiently if we we all financially free anyways.
Buying ark this past year was like buying bitcoin at the peak in 2017, then riding it down. In 2018, it sure looks like a dumb move, but with time, more than tripled your money if held to recent high within 3 years.
That’s what buying ark is like right now. Yes, I stopped buying because Im greedy and decided to let it ride down instead of DCA, but bottom line, any price right now is a gift in the long-term investment approach just like buying bitcoin at any of the many peaks in the past 10 years.
I’m not worried about innovation, it’s a slam dunk over the next 10-20 years. So much change is coming. Our lives will be totally different 15 years from now. Totally different. Ark is a tool to bet on this disruptive innovation.
Worth it to throw 10k into I-bonds? Seems like a no brainer at 7.12%
Grim One year Virgin Island notes sold a couple of weeks ago 9.75 coupon for a year. High risk , private placement.
BRT CBGB s was great! A friend of mine used to play there years ago, older than me. Also has written a couple children’s books, go figure! Very talented!
Fab – that’s an easy $500
https://btceinfachverdienen.blogspot.com/2021/12/in-kryptowahrung-investieren.html
I remember one time being too drunk at CBGB and the bathroom doors had those stickers all over them. I couldn’t find the letters MEN or WOMEN on either. So I took a guess…wrong door.
It probably didn’t matter to anyone BRT.
Yup. Doesn’t mean they won’t fall some more.
Such great opportunities, yet most people are laughing at it and mocking it.
“Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find compelling.”
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-hawkish-fed-tech-investors-major-buying-opportunity-2022-1
“While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,” Ives said.