From Fortune:
The housing market faces its biggest test yet
There has been no shortage of theories on how the ongoing housing boom is going to end. Reopening corporate offices were supposed to tamp down on remote workers buying in far-flung places. As stimulus aid got further in the rearview mirror, it was thought home shoppers would pull back. And the wind-down of the government’s mortgage forbearance program last fall was projected to pile additional inventory onto the market.
So far, nothing has done much to slow down the housing market.
But the red-hot housing market now faces its biggest test yet: Soaring mortgage rates.
Over the past 12 weeks, mortgage rates have posted their largest jump since the ’90s. As of March 24, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 4.42%—up from 3.11% in December. And it isn’t over yet: Industry insiders tell Fortune it’s likely to go higher this week.
When the pandemic struck two years ago, the Federal Reserve quickly put downward pressure on mortgage rates. By the summer of 2020, the average rate was below 3%. The enticement of record low mortgage rates encouraged more buyers to jump into the market. As home prices soared, those low rates also helped to alleviate some of the burden for homebuyers. But as mortgage rates rise, it will have the opposite effect: Higher rates will increase buyer’s borrowing costs at a time when they’re already stretched thin by record home price growth. Simply put: This swift move up in mortgage rates amounts to an economic shock.
“If rates rise above 5% you will price buyers out of the market,” Devyn Bachman, vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune. “The higher rates could also discourage investor activity, which accounts for a large portion of home sales today.”
To see why spiking mortgage rates put downward pressure on a housing market, just look at buyers’ monthly payments. If a borrower takes out a $400,000 mortgage at a 3.11% fixed rate, they’d owe a monthly payment of $1,710 over 30 years. At a 4.42% rate that payment climbs $2,008. But if rates do climb to 5%, that mortgage payment becomes a whopping $2,147. That’s a lot to stomach—especially when considering they’re shopping in a market where U.S. home prices are up 18.8% over the past year.
First
On the train, commuter parking lot at around 50% prepandemic.
Housing prices won’t come down until the inventory improves …..
RentL0rd says:
March 27, 2022 at 7:56 pm
Biden’s talk is just “locker room talk”. Find something else Republicons.
Bidens “Locker room Talk” could start world war 3 , with Nukes! He should be the president not a stupid politician in these times. Shut his effin MOUTH! I thought Trump was bad , but Biden wins the prize for stupidity.
truesue says:
March 28, 2022 at 7:23 am
Housing prices won’t come down until the inventory improves …..
Inventory will improve as soon as rates hit 5%, that is a given. Real estate is directly correlated to interest rates, always has been.
Except that it’s actually not.
Grim,
Just my opinion, because I am not computer savy I cannot put up the chart of mortgage interest charts for the last 50 years. Rates since 2008 have been give away money. Directly correlated to the massive jump in prices. I remember losing tenants because it was cheaper for them to buy than rent. Politicians have learned how to juice the economy and increase taxes just by lowering rates. When rates were 16% the market was absolutely dead.
Blah blah blah my opinion …. Blah Blah Blah
Will Smiff gonna smack Yo Azzz
There is no correlation between US Housing Prices and US 30 Year Mortgage Rates in the long-run. There is no correlation. While I understand how appealing it is to think there is, there is not, none, zero.
You can find very short periods of time that are strongly positively correlated, and other periods of time that are strongly negatively correlated, and still others with no correlation at all. All of this requires cherry picking specific dates to specifically show the correlations (or lack thereof). This is exactly why over a more realistic period of time, there is no mathematical correlation.
I’ve run the numbers 9 ways to Sunday. No correlation in the US. You can start to get closer to something that looks like a “relationship” when you adjust mortgage rates for inflation, as well as cherry pick a variable .5-2 year lag between real mortgage rate and home prices. Again, this requires cherry picking dates, which feels so very manipulative, to make a point. And still, you can find other periods of time that resulted in zero impact to home prices. Shifting both time series by a set timeframe (6 months, 1 year), yields no stronger correlations.
Grim,
Ok , there are a lot of variables that go into the mix, economy, personal wealth, etc. But I am sure if rates go up to 6 % , prices will drop significantly. Even right now the market is still hot, just give it time , people cannot absorb the higher rates. The changes are not instantly…. but it will happen.
Housing is gonna get smacked like Chris Rock
Mid 90s, over a two year period there was nearly a full 3% rise in the 30 year while house prices rose, very similar to what you suggest will crash prices. This was repeated a few years later, in the period immediately leading up to 2000, there was a similar rise in rates over 2 years while prices rose.
Also, the opposite is true, the period from 2005 until 2014, both home prices and mortgage rates both fell precipitously.
These three examples illustrate strong DIRECT correlation between house prices and interest rates.
Grim: If people were already struggling to buy homes before rates started to rise, I don’t see how a 500.00 month increase in payments is not going to impact affordability, for many buyers, and with inflation an issue as well.
I would also note student loan payments are probably higher than they were in the 1990s, and house prices in many areas including north Jersey had a 2 handle.
One final point an increase of almost 20 percent in a year is as far as I know unprecedented. It remains to be seen how it plays out in a rising rate environment, but I am skeptical there won’t be any decrease in prices with an increase in rates.
Grim,
I am going to test your hypothesis on selling another multi unit (3) April 1. I am hoping it sells quickly before rates get out of hand. Sometimes investment units are not affected by rates. The last one I sold was a 6 unit for 385,000 all cash. I would love to find another cash flush buyer.
Your grandparents always said random crap they shouldn’t have out loud. That’s one of the consequences of electing an 80 year old to office.
Would have been a better Oscars if they had a bitch slapping for this hairline joke.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1508235330469646339
Dumped half my DNA…too much gains to carry into uncertainty of call tonight…30% nearly on the nose actual not annualized, 11 days….it’s a casino, not a market……
Public service reminder: Russian military nuclear doctrine is that an attempt from external actors to create regime change may be (or WILL be?) responded to with nuclear weapons strikes.
Biden shouldn’t be saying these things. It increases the chance of nuclear armageddon.
Furthermore, Biden just strengtened Putin’s support within Russia and reduced the chance of actual regime change.
Grim the data regarding correlation between home prices and rates is a very simplistic comparison there are MANY variables that effect home prices, if home prices were depressed as they were in the 90’s even in the face of rate increases the values would go up. The argument I’d make is that this time the rising rate environment will trigger a collapse in value, affordability is stretched(prices are stupid high and at the end of the day people need to be able to afford the property in order to buy it) and we have had ridiculously low rates though this pandemic. The perfect storm is coming, sucking even a tiny bit of credit out of the system is going to take it down. Right now inventory is so low because the market is frozen.
The thing with Rates is that people are dumb but not that dumb they know that rates fluctuate what is different this time is we have had rates so low we may never see something like this ever again so between the mania, lack of inventory and historic low rates this ship is headed towards the iceberg. Housing doesn’t turn on a dime either because the market is not liquid and price increases tend to be sticky. The trigger will be a recession which is getting more and more likely by the day, the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions and dislocations in the market along with a climate of ever so slowly rising rates will be the trigger.
Grim . . . what would you say is the variable that drives housing prices most?
Is it more so demographics rather than rates or other economic factors?
US housing starts:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
US housing completions:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPUTSA
Crushed : As I understand it income. Housing price increases have decoupled from income increases, now throw in rising mortgage rates. I don’t see how that can continue.
Very high odds that most high growth stocks have bottomed out. When long rates peak and the economy decelerates over the following months, the secular compounders are likely to take off…fasten your seatbelts.
I went all in on DNA. Prices at 3 were a gift from god. I took full advantage.
What does it matter to the buyer that needs a mortgage? They only care about the monthly payment. They are paying the same no matter what.
At the end of the day, rates don’t dictate pricing. It’s the demand that does. Do you know how many cash buys there were over the last 2 years? People were using cash instead of low rates, which is stupid, but what does that say about their position?
3b says:
March 28, 2022 at 10:10 am
Crushed : As I understand it income. Housing price increases have decoupled from income increases, now throw in rising mortgage rates. I don’t see how that can continue.
Grim,
I agree there is no correlation between interest rates and housing prices. This is coming completely out of left field, but I am guessing that before (dictator) Trump politicized the FED by begging Powell to lower the interest rates during the “greatest economy of all time,” the FED moved interest rates in the same direction of the economy. Of course, this was done to reload the FED’s chamber so they could either rates the rates to slow down runaway growth and the resulting employment shortage or to lower the rates to get the economy out of recession by allowing companies to borrow money more cheaply. So, if the FED is raising rates, the economy is still booming. In a booming economy, house prices would be expected to rise. Now when rates are being lowered, and we are in recession, housing prices should eventually fall as people are afraid to spend and inventory sits on the market longer. Though, both of these phenomenon should lag as the FED always acts too late. I don’t have time to do the math, but I would bet that my theory only aligns with significant recession and periods of overheated growth.
Anyone watch the Jon Stewart show (The Problem) on Apple TV? The episode on Robin Hood was really eye opening. The interview with the SEC head was quite telling on how rigged the market is.
Interesting stat from the show, the SEC only collects a little over half of the fines they levy.
IMHO – Home prices will continue to rise along with interest rates for as long as the Fed is actively chasing/lagging inflation, even if rates continue to increase. Should the fed get aggressive and tip the economy into recession, than home prices fall – regardless if rates go up or down.
Kind of a tipping point hypothesis.
Couple thoughts on rates/home prices….
First, probably wouldn’t argue against our host on the data…I’d be quite certain he’s locked that down.
To Lib’s point, I think…this time may be different. Prices seem to rise at the initiation of rate increases due in part to a spurt of demand from people wanting to ‘lock-in’ low mortgage rates on a purchase and because the economy at the time of the initiation of rate increases is unusually strong and almost definitionally at its peak.
The former obviously gives a final push up to house prices as rates are increasing, and may be part of the reason that a data series with a skewed start dates has a higher correlation.
The latter is what I would argue may make historical analysis less relevant…rate increases are usually in response to an overly robust economy which is usually driven by fundamentals. This go around we have a liquidity driven economy, with not necessarily great fundamentals. It would seem that these markets may be more exposed than previously as not only is economic activity being slowed, and from a lower real base, but liquidity is also being withdrawn from the system.
I have no hard opinion either way…but we’ll all see….
According to the Atlantic Magazine, the US population growth sank to an all time low in 2021. Rapidly declining birth rate, increase in mortality rate, and decrease in immigration rate. According to the article LA for instance is on its way to be viewed as a childless city , which according to the article is a thing now; cities with few children.
Left: I think the difference is a 20 percent rise in house prices in a year. Do a few rate increases blow off that last 20 percent increase in prices?
A 15% increase in houses YOY for the last few years, gas and heating costs skyrocket and weekly grocery shopping is being reduced to bare essentials. And now, a 30yr. mortgage is rising above 5% interest. So, house prices are going up still more? I haven’t even tossed in property taxes, yet.
Fed is not going to get aggressive, that is why (wink, wink) Biden nominated Powell for another term, so he is in charge until 2016, plan is to run it hot (inflation) for a while. We are in for higher-for-longer inflation, the FED won’t intentionally cause a recession which is in reality is the ONLY policy too they have to curb inflation, as only Congress can implement price controls. All the recent jawboning by Powell about raising rates faster if needed is nothing but words until there is action.
As far as home prices increasing, got demand?
Latest charts on household formation. Who needs a 4 bedroom out in Parsippany?
Figure 1 here.. it shows the drop-off now of the Pandemic caused household formation that spiked in 2020-2021, it looks like a big drop-off to me it’s below 1 now, should slow the lines at the open houses soon enough.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/hseholdform.pdf
During the Great Recession, housing prices nationally declined something like 20%. I don’t know if anyone wants to make a call that we will see a greater peak-to-trough this time around?
Just a random and jumbled thought that I’ve been kicking around since the 2020 huge home price jumps started happening:
As was noted a few days ago by someone on here, 2018 and 2019 saw flat or maybe even slightly declining home prices. Further to that point, I did an analysis once around that time where I was able to find a home for sale in, say, 2018 for a price lower than the current owner paid for it in 2005-2007. I started way out in the western parts of North NJ (like Sparta area or further out in Sussex) and found such a house, then I moved one town east and tried to find a house with a similar pricing dynamic (that is, for sale “listed” price in 2018 lower than the owner paid for it in 2005-2007). My thesis was that there were plenty such houses in the Sparta area, but that somewhere in Western Bergen (closer to NYC), such a thing would not be possible. However, I was wrong – I was able to get all the way to the Hudson River (including towns like Englewood Cliffs and such) where there were houses for sale at lower than Housing Boom prices. (Obviously, I’m sure that the reasons for many such houses was that the owners deferred maintenance – it was not a general commentary on pricing overall). Today – I doubt you could find a house for sale at a lower than 2007 price anywhere outside of maybe Paterson or similar.
So, obviously something relataed to the pandemic caused house prices to spike. I think it’s a multiple thing (how many times income people are willing to pay). So, I suppose FOMO is a big factor. On the other hand income rose too, big min wage increases happened at the same time across many geographies in the country. New housing supply affected by supply chain problems, so builders can’t meet the demand as fully as they would with traditional supply chain situations. Re-sale housing supply still jammed up at first by people afraid for house showings during covid, and now due to “If I sell, i need to buy at crazy prices”.
Nonetheless, I am surprised it went this way. I would have thought that people “spreading out” due to the wfh should have lowered housing prices overall.
3B – Used to be 4 kids, then 3 kids, then 2 kids, now it seems to be only 1.
Anecdotal the three most recent families to move into our neighborhood have only 1 child. I don’t think there will be another either as parents are older etc. My cousins and my age group are all done for sure. Most had 2 kids only..The trend I see now is 1 kid only with the Millennials.
Page 11 Figure 22 show the family size and household size data. It does not look to be trending up. Family (3.1) – Household (2.5)
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/hseholdform.pdf
3b, wish I knew….I think what would be interesting to see is the correlation between all-in cost and some measure of earnings/GDP…
Basically, a long term time series of monthly payment v. some measure of per capita earnings…does the monthly stay around the same with price declines offsetting rates? Does it decline with the same slope as earnings for a flat ratio? Or does the ratio move around….
Also, for anyone looking at the yield curve re: inversions/recession I would suggest paying more attention to the 3mo/2y…and it is the one right now doing funky stuff…
re: “I don’t know if anyone wants to make a call”
Sure why not I am a contrarian by nature. I will call it housing prices will decrease, by how much? Well if I tossed out a percentage I would be a fool, there isn’t enough data yet.
The pandemic household buying has however ended now, masks are off and the fear is gone. People are partying hard again too. Sure people still want out of NYC but this new Mayor is different, he is bringing in his own broken windows version of policing, and the predictions are the parting will be happening again in NYC.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/26/us/crime-us-quality-of-life-policing/index.html
Left – re: paying more attention to the 3mo/2y
Tea Leaves are strange for sure.
Yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury. If it falls to zero or turns negative, that usually means recession, it is close at .18
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Don’t we need both inversion and higher unemployment to signal we are in a recession? How can we have a recession with full employment? It would be a first no?
I wouldn’t call it a decline in NJ while I see NYers and Philadelphians flood every open house in my neighborhood. There are still a lot of people fleeing the cities that put themselves on a suicide mission over the past 5 years.
Left: Good analysis as always. According to “experts” house price increases have totally decoupled from wage increases. If prices go down, with rates rising monthly payment may be the same, depending on the decrease/increase respectively. The amount of the down payment will be less, which is a positive factor. As well, the sense of urgency/ frenzy may be gone, if inventory opens up.
Another positive lower prices, higher rates, but when rates decline again, the mortgage can be refinanced. If you overpay for a house, the original purchase price can never be refinanced.
The FED cannot stop a recession, they have lost control. They don’t want to tighten but they’ll have to or it will look like Weimar Germany. The powers that be want inflation just not at the level we are seeing, the plan has always been to inflate away our debts not repay them. Inflation hurts the poor and middle class the most while the asset rich wealthy ride the tide of values up. The FED will lose control and have no choice, they have only a few blunt tools at their disposal, the serfs will riot when they can’t afford to feed their families any longer.
My view is that the listing prices of homes in my local market is not so dislocated at the moment but the 20-30% over ask that people are getting is. Other markets are totally batsh*t, look at vacation home prices and it is just stupid 75% price increases since the pandemic started? Lots of condo and spec home projects starting in places where vacation homes were a hard sell and trading at a discount prior to the pandemic(Catskills ski areas, etc). That is not going to end well.
The US government has no way to pay their obligations at higher interest rates. There is no way out of this.
You could do what Bernie is suggesting. It’s nothing novel. It was used to pay down the debt the last two times the government spent like drunken sailors (due to wars).
Tax the corporations that benefitted from the stimulus and the pandemic at an excessively high rate for three years. You wouldn’t tax all of their revenue at the high rates. Only the excessive revenue generated due to the pandemic.
Of course, this is not an option when the government is owned by these corporations.
We could start by reversing the Trump corporate tax cuts? Nah, the rich REALLY REALLY liked them. Almost as much as they liked NAFTA.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sanders-windfall-tax-large-companies-cut-high-prices-2022-3
Juice: I am starting to see the 1 child and done thing now too.
Same here. With the millenials. And no rush to marry.
“Lots of condo and spec home projects starting in places where vacation homes were a hard sell and trading at a discount prior to the pandemic(Catskills ski areas, etc). That is not going to end well.”
Late 80s, Poconos, commutable to NYC….lol. Can never get those ads out of my mind…
Lib: Particularly the millennial males from what I am hearing.
Left: I know someone that did the Poconos trip to Wall Street for years. It’s only 1.5 hours on bus blah, blah, up at 4:30 to drive and catch bus. Last bus was 6:00 PM at the time. Miserable existence in my opinion. He finally relocated to NJ, out by Annandale, sti a miserable commute. He retired to Fla recently.
From what I heard the Poconos got bad or at least some areas, and they were calling it the ghetto in the woods.
US Corporations and the Government . . .
This is the one part of the whole covid situation that I can’t figure out. I believe that, by and large, the US government is responsive to the needs of the corporate sector. So, I remain perplexed as to how the corporations weren’t able to knock down some of the shutdown rhetoric and other Covid-related actions from the Dems. I’d say the sharpest dividing line in Dem Covid rhetoric was the 2021 elections.
The airline, cruise ship, residential real estate, commercial real estate, restaurants, Sysco, and other similar industries that were getting killed by Covid surprisingly, it seems, didn’t have the political muscle to cut through the Fauci narrative. (CCL revenues dropped from an annual $20B to sub-$1B for a year, lol). On the other side of the coin, the cable news industry, online entertainment, industrial real estate, and internet companies did well, so I suppose they might have pushed for a higher level of Covid fear-mongering.
(By Fauci narrative, I mean the idea that Covid is very dangerous, and that, in specific, 1-2% of the population dying from unchecked Covid is very bad and must be avoided. That shutdowns and masking are warranted due to the negative health outcomes arising from covid from not doing so. That vaccines need to be pushed hard.). There’s a very reasoanble political opinion that disagrees with all of this and states that the response to covid was overdone. Before this whole thing happened, for example if I was asked in 2019, I might have said that a virus that killed 5% of the population wouldn’t have been met with this kind of response because corporate profits would be prioritized over a few percent of the population.
I said this on this blog before many times. Future demographics combined with deflationary tech means we are really at war with deflation. That’s why I said real estate mania stage will start in 2o24 and end prob in 2026. After that, make sure you own real estate in top locations.
People buying in this middle of nowhere small towns, or in boomer driven retirement locations will get killed. NJ will be fine…supply of homes has never really been overbuilt here. It’s also in a top location smack dab in between nyc and philly. Also, has access to ports and multiple airports.
We could start by reversing the Trump corporate tax cuts?
To make up for the lost revenue, where do you think the first place they’ll go to cut costs?
1:44 If we do slow down or affordability begins to seem unreachable for buyers. You’re just as liable to lose your ass in NJ as in NC.
Ex,
Nj being smack dead in the middle of one of the strongest economic engines in north and south america does give NJ a lot of support compared to other locations. Sure, it can take a hit, but it will be less severe than most other locations if real estate does take a hit.
Long run housing prices are a function of personal incomes
However, when two short-term distortions are introduced ( in this case each a demand shock, demographic desire to move from urban to suburban areas; artificially manipulated interest rates), then forecasting the next move may not follow long-term norms.
In this case, we have across the board of inflation (including inflation of incomes). We don’t have to look at the broad impact on the population. We need to laser focus on the incremental buyer and their variables.
With this level of distortion, literally anything is possible.
Bottom line, monitor the availability of credit and pending sales crapping out. The credit market still looks solid. I think earnings next month ( more specifically company forecasts) will help place things in clearer perspective.
So that is about 2 1/2 weeks. Remember, we have entered warning season. If a company finishes a quarter and knows things are fuct, they are duty bound to say something now instead of at the earnings release.
Isn’t part of the buyer mania that many have made a killing in the market and have ample resources even if prices and rates continue to increase?
Cash purchase I believe at all time highs.
Bingo, nomad.
DNA motherfuckers!!! Let’s go!!
Dumped an additional 1/4 of original DNA position after market…have 1/4 left, will let this ride.
Is $GME meme-ing again?
I saw a story on the news about companies charging about 1% to allow people to make all-cash-offers to buy homes. Like Homeward. In the bidding wars the story said in Atlanta over 50% of homes were bought on all cash offers.
But behind it all, not as many people actually have the cash to do all-cash offers.
https://www.14news.com/2022/03/28/americans-facing-hot-housing-market-all-cash-offers-become-more-popular/
Last year I bought my home in FL with an all-cash-offer that actually was entirely from our cash reserves. It was weird to not need to do all the mortgage related paperwork and appraisals.
Fun fact: China’s home price to income ratio has been running at about 13 times lately, and has been running at over 10x for about 10 years. US housing bubble topped at about 7x. In the hottest cities Chinese home income multiples are over 20x.
Amazingly there hasn’t been a crash yet. And there’s not even a shortage of homes. Lots of them sit empty and unfurnished, awaiting an eventual resale. It’s where Chinese upper income people stash most of their assets.
https://corporate.nordea.com/article/67806/china-im-forever-blowing-bubbles-how-bad-is-the-situation-in-chinese-real-estate
No One, anything involving the communist Chinese should not be heralded as an example “market forces”, there is no property market in communist china, housin gis basically a casino. Much that goes on over there is manipulated and corrupt, plus they have a billion people. The Chinese government has been propping up housing because once they stop building ghost cities the shell game that is their economy begins to collapse.
Repositioned and ready to go.
“The fundamentals quality of the $ARKK portfolio has increased since early 2021…
April 2021:
Pre-revenue companies – 3
Negative earnings comps – 36
Today:
Pre-revenue companies – 0
Negative earnings comps – 26
The number of holdings has also dropped from 56 to 35.”
United states real estate is prob cheapest in the world.
I love canada as an example. It’s going to crash!! Lmao…they have been saying this for 20 years. They said the price to income was too high, and yet canada keeps hitting higher highs and higher lows.
No One says:
March 28, 2022 at 5:18 pm
Fun fact: China’s home price to income ratio has been running at about 13 times lately, and has been running at over 10x for about 10 years. US housing bubble topped at about 7x. In the hottest cities Chinese home income multiples are over 20x.
So 26 of 35 companies in ARKK still run unprofitable businesses? Based on GAAP earnings or made up earnings rules?
Should they trust the long term forecasts from 24 year olds without much experience?
It bottomed…high growth is ready to run again.
The tide has turned. They oversold high growth just like they overbought on the run up. I said this would happen. Everyone saying that ark is going to zero was hilarious. Lol
Chi, the issue with income inflation is that it largely is in the service sector of the economy when you look at income growth by sector the picture looks ugly. Income growth in the big fat middle is still under pressure, here and there you will hear about someone getting a big pay day but employers are trying to hold it down as much as possible. The wage inflation we’ve seen(~9% YoY) is totally eaten by the increase in food and energy costs. Real compensation is actually down significantly approximately 3.6%, so most actually have less discretionary income to spend.
“Is $GME meme-ing again?”
A lot of the garbage is having double digit up days…AMC too.
“Repositioned and ready to go.”
LOL, when you sell holdings at massive declines after losing billions upon billions of dollars for your investors your ‘management’ of the fund is not a positive, it is a negative drag on performance. CW is a hindrance to returns.
Pumps, the Canadian property market is a liability and they too have a Chinese investor problem. There are serious issues with Canada as a result of the runaway property market, it is really bad for younger people.
Jcer,
It’s capitalism. The rich buy up valuable assets. Monopoly anyone?
Jcer,
Poll workers will now get 21 an hour or 300 dollars a day. It’s going to eventually push up the higher wages above it.
I said arkk was going to 60. It did. And I stopped shorting it. It’s still has major issues. Can it and the rest of tech run? Sure. Bear market rally will suck you in and stocks rally 100 mph into the wall.
I’m sitting on the sidelines until I see favorable conditions to short again.
*Many blame the Fed for lower interest rates ~ & while they’ve played a key role in setting up policies, rates were going lower regardless
That’s because post-80’s there’s been a soaring global savings glut (Aka dead money) as the rich/corps wealth compounds faster + faster
P1
These rich + surplus nations needed places to put this cash (they can’t put it under a mattress), so they park it in banks + buy gov. debt(see chart👇🏻)
This is key as it keeps yields weighed down via excess savings overwhelms banks while gov’s aren’t issuing debt fast enough
P2
Now – once banks are drowning in savings (and thus must lend out more to generate more net-income), rates further drop = making borrowing easier
Thus ~ the top-1%‘s effectively financing the bot-99’s excess borrowing (see👇🏻)
The bot-99% then get stucks in a ‘debt-trap’
P3
A key reason for this has been that post-WW2, growth (via total factor productivity) began sinking globally (DM’s mostly)
Thus the US gov couldn’t keep up w/ entitlements
So the Fed stepped to financialize + make debt cheaper to subsidizes eroding worker incomes + gov needs
P4
Thus the post-1980’s economy became hyperfinancialized (meaning: even major producing firms – like car manufacturers – now make most of their money via banking/lending vs production)
Firms/the-rich are drowning in cash w/ less outlets (esp. as investment fades ~ see chart👇🏻)
P5
So in reality: the global savings glut is actually a 2-pronged issue: wealth of the rich compounding faster + a dearth of investment
& These two trends are very structural, w/ no reverse in sight as the natural rate of interest further erodes(👇🏻)
IMO rates going even lower
P6
Guy makes some good points…that’s capitalism for you.
Rich keep getting richer…that’s why there was barely any inflation for so long. No matter how much you print, it gets eaten up by the compounding monster of the 1%. It eats it all up.
Wtf??
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-billionaire-abramovich-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/
Seriously, go buy yourself some DNA. I liquidated all my ark positions a week ago to buy into this at 3.01. Knew this was stupid cheap and it still is. Anything under 5 is a gift from god. This is an early stage powerhouse in the making. It really is. Be ready for a volatile ride though similar to bitcoin or tesla past 10 years.
Wasn’t joking when I went all in. My bro in law bought some at 2.66. I got greedy and thought it would drop to 2.50…screwed myself. It ran into the 3s and i had to cut my position of it going lower and buy in. Glad i did. I honestly thought the earnings report would disappoint, instead it knocked it out of the park.
Uhmmmm….the ER was pre-announced in January…..it’s been known….
Regardless, I’ve realized very good gains on three quarters of my buy and you are up as well.
So why don’t you do a favor for everyone else on here….give them the reasons why DNA is such a powerhouse and why any purchase price below $5 is a gift from God.
I’m sure they’ll appreciate it…some may even follow on.
For all you Joe haters out there. How a CiC should be. Comfortable with the troops, they are comfortable with him and at least he knows how to eat a slice of Pizza.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1507366729537761289
Huh? He didn’t fold it.
Because it has an almost limitless Avenue for multiple revenue sources. It’s as simple as that. It’s basically going to be the app for loads of industries.
DNA operates at the interface between some of the most powerful technological shifts in history: AI, DNA sequencing and synthesis, genetic engineering, and collaborative robotics. Collectively, these technologies are empowering the field of synthetic biology.
Aka this is the company you just don’t understand yet, but it’s going to change the world you live in. Solve lots of problems currently facing our survival.
Huh? He didn’t fold it.
Army (Pizza) doesn’t fold!
I was looking for the classic Trump eating Pizza with a Knife and Fork and came across this gem.
https://www.cc.com/video/ef43uv/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-forkgate-2-0
Stay to the end for commentary on the daughters reaction.
Keep an eye on this one too:
https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/too-many-new-homes-for-sale/
Military pizza doesn’t fold. Lol. We’re reduced to approval of pizza consumption. LOL. When your administration is a raging dumpster fire, we’ll claw at anything. Liberals are an amusing bunch. Trying to defend this fiasco of a regime is like the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail, flailing about with no arms and legs claiming that they’ll bite you to death. Lol!
I think Blumpy misread FA meaning Feeling Analysis..
On job front, job contacts and interviews have absolutely fallen off the cliff in last 3 weeks. I used to get two a day and follow-up from recruiters. Absolutely nothing. I was supposed to have 3 interviews set-up in beginning of March but no contact back on any of them. I highly doubt the job market is in full control of job seeker like media portrays, certainly not white collar. Wage increases are not at level that valid insane house pricing and rising costs everywhere. Seems like most people are falling behind. Developers still in control though.
Jericho Green, ex-military, telling it exactly like it is. A true American! This is for my liberal friends:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJoUMc0ltlw
Well my IB now mandating 3 days a week as global policy. They said don’t expect attrition. I know how many people hired in Poland and India that live nowhere near city. We had no choice as lost 80% of perm team in 2020-2021. This applies to vendors as well and god knows how many people they hired not in work location. This will be ugly mandate.
DNA…let’s go!!!
Bystander,
3 days per week in the office? Yes? And what about the interviews? You have nothing in the pipeline? Am I reading it wrongly?
It’s inevitable. I don’t know why people started buying homes in the middle of nowhere on a short-term trend they had no idea would stick long-term.
Bystanderd says:
March 29, 2022 at 9:36 am
Well my IB now mandating 3 days a week as global policy. They said don’t expect attrition. I know how many people hired in Poland and India that live nowhere near city. We had no choice as lost 80% of perm team in 2020-2021. This applies to vendors as well and god knows how many people they hired not in work location. This will be ugly mandate.
Boockvar is pretty solid usually.
Man, that new home sales line 2006 through 2008 is just brutal. Possibly the closest anything actually comes to vertical without shutting down in total. Nearly un-skiable…
Yep Ed 3 days in office. I had three phone screens with various recruiting three weeks ago and never heard back even with my follow-up. Nomura, Beacon Hill and Golub were the three. Since then, besides maybe two garbage low ball contracts on Linkedin, nothing..nada..zip. I have separate gmail for job search and absolutely dead.
Fast: My friends bank had everyone back in the office 3 days a week at the beginning of March, by the end of the first week, they changed it to 2 days a week.
As inflation continues to rise, more companies will dump expensive obsolete commercial real estate when there is simply no need for it. IB s Like Bystander s will loose employees to competitors. WFH/ Hybrid, fully remote will continue to grow.
We’re mandatory at Phase II which is two days per week and then Phase III whenever that happens at “full” schedule. I would assume that’s then three days per week. Since I accepted a new internal position, my Director is in California and stated that she could care less where I sit. It’s up to me. I’d be okay with two in office and three at home.
Fast Eddie,
It takes a special kind of stupid for a black man to vote for Trump. The look is even worse when one of the 99.5% white Trump supporters post links to said ultra-minority black Trump supporter denigrating (yeah, probably not the best verb) a black Democrat (Corey Booker, in this case). Nothing personal, but it does seem like every single black Republican is a contrarian and feels the need to point out that, one, they are black. And two that they are a Republican. And the rest of the white folks in the party token it up much like the middle-aged homemaker in Wyoming who thinks Oprah is their token black friend and Ellen is their token lesbian friend.
I give Oprah some credit though. She is a heck of a businessperson. How someone who weighs 300 pounds is a spokesperson and Director at Weight Watchers is quite incredible. Ellen, I’ve never really found funny at all. Though kissing a girl on TV has made her worth half a billion. Perhaps those two should get it on and really break the bank.
Watching the parking lot for the train in Wayne on rt 23 grow by the week. Friday it is dead.
A lot of people going to be upset when their boss forces them back in. Good luck finding a serious company that will let you stay home.
I disagree. I think Boockvar was too dogmatic coming out of the crisis, and had a serious case of the angry nerd defending his science project. He really whiffed on the rally all the way up. Theoretically he is absolutely correct, but he is obviously a gadfly and doesn’t talk to enough people. He seems to miss what is going on the ground.
leftwing says:
March 29, 2022 at 10:03 am
Boockvar is pretty solid usually.
Man, that new home sales line 2006 through 2008 is just brutal. Possibly the closest anything actually comes to vertical without shutting down in total. Nearly un-skiable
Grim,
Did you ever throw that money into your daughter’s 529? So far, the chart continue to work as expected and we are currently in the rush back to the 14,950 support level in the Nasdaq. After that, watch for inflation and the recession. I imagine you used a time based target fund. If you want to try to time the upcoming implosion, you can always transfer to a near dated target fund, which will have most of your money in stable holdings. Just watch out for your market timing rules in the 519. Most only allow two round trips in an 85 day period before they start limiting your access.
It takes a special kind of stupid for a black man to vote for Trump.
I stopped reading right there. Because with all due respect, this current administration and the diseased logic by the left side of the aisle is now beyond laughable and approaching sympathetic clemency. There’s no tokenism in the right-sided ideology as the left tends to believe, fed by the lockstep lunacy liberals consume. What’s happening is that besides slowly losing the female, suburban vote, the left is losing the Hispanic and now, the Black vote. The gig is up… people are tired of being tokens of the left and are achieving more and working harder by their own attainment.
Jericho Green has numerous videos and every one is a home run. The fact that he is black proves that there’s no bleeding heart guilt being tossed about. He’s telling it like it is and the liberals can’t stomach it. In a lot of his videos he has the American flag folded behind him. He’s an American, ex-military, makes no excuses, uncovers the hypocrisy and the democrats hate it! He’s not a human shield that democrats use for votes.
Fast: That is how it has been going even prior to the pandemic, geographical dispersed teams across the country. There will be pills and tugs back and forth , but serous companies know hybrid/ full remote is where corporate America is going. The companies that demand full 5 days in the office in crime infested cities won’t be able to compete. Of course those that actually work in corporate America would understand that, as we actually do the work.
Very sobering NY Times podcast with Larry Summers,?if he is right, it’s going to be rough. Meanwhile, on the other side that moron Jim Crammer says the bear market is over. I don’t know how anyone listens to him.
After Trump’s support for the Klan in Lynchburg and recent laws negatively impacting the ability for black people to vote in many southern states, I comfortably stand by my position. You know I agree with the Republican position on welfare programs, but I don’t remember Trump reforming any of them. Do you? He spent a couple dollars on black colleges (mostly for the photo opportunity) and brought in wacky evangelists. That’s pretty much it. Educate yourself brother.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0021934719885627
Unreal. Best company in the world, but still crazy. Lib, what’s your opinion on this? Bull trap? Or start of bull run?
“$AAPL, the largest stock in the world, and representing 7.2% of the S&P 500 index has had no down days since the Fed meeting.”
33 outside. Going to be 70 in 48 hours. Cripes
Bill Dudley former President of the NY Federal Reserve ( and our fixed income economist back in the day at GS, he was in our 7:30 meetings twice a week before the trading day started) in an opinion piece In Bloomberg says the Feds policies have made a recession inevitable.
He spent a couple dollars on black colleges (mostly for the photo opportunity) and brought in wacky evangelists. That’s pretty much it.
And signed an executive order for minority-owned business ventures that included parks and housing. In two years under the Trump administration, black entrepreneurs invested $75,000,000,000 dollars and 8,800 opportunity zones have been certified. There was an effort for independence as opposed to dependence. The left thrives on dependence and uses people like utensils. Educate yourself, brother.
In other news, it appears to be a crisp and sunny day today but I can’t be sure because I’m not a meteorologist.
I’ve said this a million times. Apple and Amazon are the two safest, best performing, individual stocks in the universe. Apple has brand loyalty like no other, but the P/E is a bit high and definitely overvalued. Amazon, is significantly undervalued even here.
That 20% correction was only the warning shot. The recession is very near. You’ve been warned.
You are also not ALL IN in DNA. You are not ALL IN in anything but lying.
Eddie,
Tell me something Trump did, besides point out statistics that he was in no way responsible for, besides borrowing and juicing the economy, which we are all about to pay for dearly.
I am headed out for my 4th booster today. I’ll let you all know if I die or grow a third arm.
And Eddie,
Ian Smith, your Atlas Gym hero, was caught for drunk driving again. Wasn’t he going to run for governor or something?
Tell me something
TrumpO’Biden did, besides point out statistics that he was in no way responsible for, besides borrowing and juicing the economy, which we are all about to pay for dearly.There, fixed it.
Who’s Ian Smith?
Thanks, Lib.
And I have no reason to lie…lefty and I nailed that. We said it on here too, hope some of you listened.
Providing Immediate Relief to Black People and Families through the American Rescue Plan. The ARP provided cash relief directly to low- and middle-income Americans last year, and cut Black child poverty by 33.3%, lifting more than 1 million Black children out of poverty in December 2021 alone. The President’s plans call for extending this critical tax cut, which expired in December. In addition, the ARP increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits by 15% through September 2021. Beginning on October 1, 2021, USDA’s Thrifty Food Plan update increased SNAP benefits by $36.30 per person per month.
President Biden’s American Rescue Plan has helped millions of Americans, including Black Americans, stay in their homes by providing emergency rental assistance. Of the $25 billion in rental assistance that was spent in 2021, Black Americans represented more than 40% of aid recipients. In addition, the ARP is helping struggling homeowners catch up with their mortgage payments and utility costs through the Homeowner Assistance Fund. And, it provided additional funding for families and individuals who are recovering from or at risk of homelessness.
Reducing Child Care Cost for Black Families. The American Rescue Plan secured a $39 billion lifeline to help child care providers stay open and compensate early childhood educators, disproportionately Black Americans, as they provide safe and healthy environments for children and help parents work. Black families are nearly two times more likely than white parents to have to quit, turn down, or make a major change in their job due to child care disruptions. The pandemic exacerbated child care disruptions, and by March 2021, had already led to 9% of child care providers closing. The ARP also included an expansion of the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit; a median income family with two kids under age 13 will receive up to $8,000 towards their child care expenses when they file taxes for 2021, compared with a maximum of $1,200 previously.
Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
When it comes to diapers to dentures dependency, I agree.
Believe what you want.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/28/fact-sheet-the-biden-harris-administration-advances-equity-and-opportunity-for-black-people-and-communities-across-the-country-3/
or
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/how-we-rise/2020/10/15/has-trump-failed-black-americans/
Trump has appointed the most Appeals Court judges since President Jimmy Carter. Not one of them is Black.
I suppose, no black lawyers are qualified.
Tomi T Ahonen Stands With Ukraine @tomiahonen
It is the Russian cousin to Kellyanne Conway. We have alternative winning now..
“fundamentally cut back”??? when they are LOSING and OUT OF AMMO
LOL. Good one. Next let’s have Giuliani do a recount of the bodies, at Four Seasons Total Defeating (parking lot)
https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1508814106752606216
Bystander, white collar job market seems to be on pause. It looks like hiring at big banks is on hold, my wife’s former co-worker pinged her about coming to his team basically saying they needed like 10 people(Data scientists/architects), my wife was interested, this was before the Ukraine invasion. It’s been a month and the guy has gone radio silent, this was for new build to support ML and AI, obviously existing functions still maybe hiring but I think new investment might be pulling back. Our finance guys have started to tighten as well on new work.
It seems like the corps are becoming cautious about investment until they can see what the impact of this war is. This means the only jobs currently open are an “urgent need” where you will go to a team where their hair is on fire. My wife is hiring, they are down 9 heads, including 2 Managers, they are jobs no one wants, even if they hire the turnover is breathtaking! The job market is slow as right now as my wife and her whole team are looking for the exit and it seems like things have ground to a halt.
Evictions . . .
In the last few days, the very first judgments of possession (eviction orders) have been issued for cases filed in early 2022 in Bergen County. Other counties are further behind, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for landlords in a position where tenants have refused to pay rent and refuse to apply for government benefits.
In Hudson, eviction cases filed in early 2022 are just now getting their case management conference dates set for mid-April. The Covid eviction freeze continues to thaw slowly.
Lib, you assume the “Black Man” is poor. I am friends with PoC who voted for Trump(they’d never admit it publicly) because it was good for their business and wallet and who can blame them. They got to keep more of their money, did they like him absolutely not but when push came to shove his policies directly benefited them and Biden’s proposed policies would hurt them. Democrat’s are obsessed with race to their detriment, it isn’t healthy nor productive. They need to stop treating minorities like they are some monolithic group without an ability to have their own opinions. The way the liberal left treats Clarence Thomas, Ben Carson, Thomas Sowell and other black conservatives is abhorrent and absolutely racist people are entitled to have their own beliefs and opinions even if they are in a minority group.
Lib not going to lie here but how many black judges are there who have the qualifications to be a federal judge, black people are 1/8th the population of the US. How many black conservative judges do you think there are? A republican is not going to send a liberal to the federal appeals court. Based on demographics black people are well represented in federal courts, it’s actually the Latinos that are underrepresented.
“Having worked at over 10 companies in my career some things never change.
1. There are a LOT of dumb people who make a lot of money.
2. If you can do something really well, you will be rewarded with more of the dumb people’s work.
3. A company will continue #2 until you break”
https://twitter.com/gromepow/status/1508835005652369417?s=21&t=KrK2mNd9GzyeCK7I4YU-gQ
Thanks JCer. That makes sense. We had two developer offers both decline the day prior to onboard this week – one in India, one in US. It is absolutely doubling down on stupidity right now. They want to reduce roles by 6% across group on top of 3% agreed last year. They think Agile will provide savings. They think forcing people back will not have attrion. They think all offices have space even though reduced London and CT office during pandemic. Someone on call said they shoved desks together in London and can’t hear calls bc too many people. They said solution was ‘quiet pods’. Anyone know what they means? The term pod is used for any solution now. Mgt loves it yet it is just BS jargon
Jcer and bystander,
Thanks for the share with the labor market. Appreciate it.
“It takes a special kind of stupid for a black man to vote for Trump.”
LOL, well isn’t that the absolute literal definition of a racist comment?
“Nothing personal, but it does seem like every single black Republican is a contrarian and feels the need to point out that, one, they are black. And two that they are a Republican.”
LOL again….seriously, one of our resident liberals taking issue with racial identity politics?
“…people are entitled to have their own beliefs and opinions even if they are in a minority group.”
Of course, unless you’re Black and voting Republican because in the words of POTUS and the current leader of the Democrats, “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black”.
JFC, to my first point above Lib, even Biden apologized for that comment. And you’re embracing it.
There’s never been such a severe shortage of homes in the U.S. Here’s why
Emerson Claus has been building houses for 45 years. But he has never faced delays like he is now trying to get basic building materials. “I had a client ask me to add a door,” he says at a job site outside Boston. “We just waited six months to get it.”
“That’s a door in a frame,” Claus says, exasperated. “That’s kind of crazy.” He says appliances can be even worse. “A dishwasher, if you can find the model you want right now, you might wait a year for it.”
By one estimate, the U.S. is more than 3 million homes short of the demand from would-be homebuyers. Pandemic-related supply chain problems aren’t helping. They’re adding tens of thousands of dollars in cost to the typical house. But the roots of the problem go back much further — to the housing bubble collapse in 2008.
“What I call a bloodbath happened,” says Claus. It was the worst housing market crash since the Great Depression. Many homebuilders went out of business. Claus was building houses in Florida when the bottom fell out.
“A lot of my tradespeople found other work, went and got retrained for new jobs in law enforcement, all sorts of jobs,” says Claus. “So the workforce was somewhat decimated.”
A few years later, as Americans started buying more homes again, building stayed below normal. And that slump in building continued for more than a decade. Meanwhile, the largest generation, the millennials, started to settle down and buy houses.
And that’s the main reason we’ve ended up millions of homes short — builders for many years just weren’t building enough to keep up with demand. That lack of supply has pushed home prices to record levels — up nearly 20% last year alone.
https://stocks.apple.com/Ad8HwSYHQSpeHiTVAH63ypw
I know Some Blacks and Latinos who are very, very conservative, and they the fact that white liberals feel the need to speak for them. One in particular was incensed over an article in The NY Times a few years ago that said more effort needs to be put into getting African Americans to visit national parks.
She said do they think Black people are stupid and don’t know they exist? She said they do, but for many going to parks and camping out is not their thing. Why do white liberals feel we need to be encouraged to go. If we want to go we can go, we don’t need anyone reaching out to us and encouraging us to go.
Gets slammed on downtrends, and flies on upswings..
“The S&P 500 and its benchmark SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) have rallied over the last two weeks but not like Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK). Wood’s flagship fund has had one of its best two-week stretches in the fund’s history as it is +33.7% since Mar. 15, more than triple the performance of SPY, which has rallied 9.3% over the same period.”
Leftwing,
Fast Eddie played the token game. I knew what I was posting would be misconstrued as racism. Especially coming from supporters of a party that is intentionally restricting the black vote. I think pointing out one’s color in an effort to promote equity is not racism. Parading around a black man who sides with you when the party clearly does not, is pretty racist. Heck, every time someone mentions blacks to a Republican, we are reminded of the same three conservatives, always headlined by Clarence Thomas. Yes, I am impressed by the few black people who have made it on their own. But America continues to fail the vast majority of them. One only needs to look at the prison rolls to see there is a systemic issue. And Left Wing, your math is either flawed or proving my point. Trump appointed 234 judges. Going by strict demographics, 29 of them should have been black. Zero were. Happenstance? Nah! I know you can see it for what it is. For fukc’s sake, at least appoint one! And there, in a nutshell, is your systemic racism.
Lib,
This market looks like it’s already overbought. These bear markets are volatile as f/k.
On another note, if DNA hits 5 today, might be an epic short squeeze that will take place. I will sell into it and then buy back after the squeeze.
3B,
I know what you are saying and understand their position. I used to share it. ChiFi and a few other’s here beat the odds. I would even include myself in that category to a very minor extent. I was blessed to have a roof over my head and three square meals. But I really think my parents did more damage to me than help in many, many ways. And they certainly did not support me financially after the age of 12. None the less, I owe the world to them for teaching me about finance. I’ve been working no less than 10 hours a week since I was 8 or 9 year’s old and no less than 20 since I was 12. I had too. So I know how much it sucks to hear, you grew up in East Brunswick, so your rich. Meanwhile, the poor kids in Spotswood or South River had cars, Air Jodan’s, nice jeans, etc. So of course I hated the handouts. I was working my ass off and they were getting free lunches. I had to buy my own lunch with the money I made. Did not have allowance ever. I get it.
The problem though, is that something SHOULD be done, not to level the playing field, but to give those in steerage a real honest chance to eat in the main dining room. You all know I am completely against the current social net. Sadly, it exists probably more so to maintain the black vote than for any noble reason. Would love to see the money spent on job training and opportunity. Not on section 8 and WIC (or whatever it’s called these days). But there is no will from either party. But to parade the Republican Party out as being helpful to the black community? You are truly fooling yourselves. Like I said before. I didn’t post the video of the lone black Trumpy.
All the investing talk here cracks me up.
You’re on the sidelines! You’re all in! Buy this! Sell that! This fund manager is a genius/idiot!
There are much easier and less stressful ways to build wealth.
Pick an allocation, dollar cost average into some index funds, rebalance when needed.
Spend your free time doing fun stuff and sleep well.
Pump’s. You are not an investor. You are a gambler. I abhor what you do just as much as I abhor what the masters on Wall Street do.
Watch Jon Stewart on Apple Plus. The Problem. Watch the Wall Street episode. Or the Gun Control episode. Or the Equity episode. Though Jon tends to swing liberal, he does at least discuss both sides of every issue. Sometimes, he even comes out on the conservative side. At the end of each show, your mind will be blown. There is a reason he is on Apple +. The other networks would not dare go where he goes. The truth (that this country sucks in so many ways) is never publicized.
Angelo Mozilo who madfe 600 million off of subprime lending, was fined 65 million dollars in the end and paid 20 million of it. The criminal case was dropped. THIS IS AMERICA!
OC1,
For the most part, you are correct. 95% of my equities are in index funds about 95% of the time. But if you are disciplined and experienced enough to know how to time the market, you will do very, very well. Keep in mind, such an opportunity has only happened three times in the last 35 years. This all in bullshit? You are correct. It’s clear that the resident financial analyst who day lights as a history teacher, but who really spends the vast majority of his time on reddit forums and here is lying as usual. He would be better suited playing all red or black. But he doesn’t listen. Which is obvious to everyone here but him.
Lib: I don’t disagree with most of what you said, in fact I agree with it . My point was I think Black people are entitled to have their own opinions, and don’t need white liberals to speak for them. Then when a Black personal dares to have an opinion that is different from what white liberals think their opinion should be, they are labeled as Uncle Toms or traitors.
I am probably the only one on this board who is white who has extended family who are Black and Hispanic, and they have no problem voicing their opinions, and those opinions often times don’t correspond to what white liberals think they should believe.
My biggest complaint with many white liberals vs white conservatives is the fact that a fair amount of them I know and or have encountered over the years are quietly or secretly racist. Talk to them about low or moderate income housing in their town and watch them contort themselves explaining how they are all for it, but it would not work in their town. Talk to them about desegregation of schools by abolishing local school boards and having schools run on a county wide basis.
I also think if we are going to meet the challenges in ensuring Black Americans get a fair shot, we have to address the break up of the Black family, the Black on Black crime. We can’t pretend it does not exist. There are many Black people who feel the same way, but if they say anything in the media they are met with howls of protest.
As for your other points I come from an immigrant background, and a large family, and so hard work and sacrifice is something I am quite familiar with. I don’t know how my Father worked all the hours he did for all the years, I could not do it. But we had a roof over our head, the best of food, and plenty of it, always well dressed as my Mother ensured that, Christmas, Birthday presents every year. We wanted for nothing in our world , and no one in the neighborhood growing up had more than we did except for a couple of only child families, but we never really dwelled on it. When I started working on the street as a runner at 14, I then had my own money and started to save and buy my own clothes, and all the rest.
“I think pointing out one’s color in an effort to promote equity is not racism. Parading around a black man who sides with you when the party clearly does not, is pretty racist.”
So racism is OK if it aligns with your beliefs; but not OK if it doesn’t?
Racism is racism.
Different strokes for different folks.
Sorry if I do something I enjoy, which is risking and researching to make money. If you don’t like taking risks, good for you. I like to live a little. It’s what I enjoy.
I have a ton of my money safe in real estate. I have a pension. I have boring index funds. What more do you want? I’m trying to make f u money by 50, not 60. I want to enjoy it while I’m still young.
Fast Eddie played the token game.
Nope. Wrong. I’ve been following the guy because of his common sense approach.
Especially coming from supporters of a party that is intentionally restricting the black vote.
Why restrict when more of the black vote is going Republican?
Parading around a black man who sides with you when the party clearly does not, is pretty racist.
Thank you for describing the democrats.
I just ate something which I believe is called a sandwich but I’m not entirely sure because I’m not a chef.
I’m not racist, but I’m not for moderate income housing in rich towns. You know why? I worked hard and paid up to move to a nice town…because I didn’t want to live in a place like Paterson where they throw garbage on the street and destroy everything they touch. I don’t care if my neighbor is hispanic or black. I’m not running from the color of their skin, I’m running from the lower class that doesn’t know how to behave. I don’t want to have to worry about someone always trying to rob my house or bully my kid in school because she has more money than them. F that.
“My biggest complaint with many white liberals vs white conservatives is the fact that a fair amount of them I know and or have encountered over the years are quietly or secretly racist. Talk to them about low or moderate income housing in their town and watch them contort themselves explaining how they are all for it, but it would not work in their town. Talk to them about desegregation of schools by abolishing local school boards and having schools run on a county wide basis.”
“Once you adjust for buybacks and you realize most of the stock market returns over the last decade came from…
…buybacks.”
“It really is impossible to overstate just how historically insane the past two weeks have been
Even for bear market rallies this is off-the-charts craziness”
Pumps, I agree with you whole heartedly. Some people are poor because of bad luck or environmental factors but many are poor because of poor decisions they make. It’s never “work force” housing or moderate income, it is almost always for the very poor. You moved where you moved and pay what you pay in taxes to insulate your kids and that is your choice.
I also agree with 3B that a lot of white liberals are racist, it can be so awkward seeing some of them interact with minorities, even if there is no bad intent they treat them differently which in and of itself is bad.
OC1…don’t confuse me with others on here, I don’t have a case of ‘investing’ Tourettes. I don’t do memes, portfolio managers of the month, day trade, penny stocks, reddit, or any of that other foolishness that historically has negative expected value.
I have four buckets…LT investment and trading accounts, one each in margin and IRA. My risk management is gold plated. My discipline high.
Of course having a bedrock of well diversified LT investments is part of a lifetime strategy to build wealth.
But, there are pathways that the market will open up that offer better – and in many cases much better – than market returns especially when risk adjusted.
At any one time there are four or five go-to situations I’ll have, two have been constant, others present and then disappear. Earnings and vol have been constants for a couple years now.
Specific stock instances are fortuitous…I put out on here a dry, reasoned thesis on DNA a couple weeks ago. I know the company well, the sector better. ARKK at $150 and the other garbage CW had in her portfolio at the time? Again, by background I could have been deaf, dumb, and blind and carried that short to the finish line.
I’m only scratching the surface. The group I trade alongside has some people that swim in the deep end. More than a couple fellows, including one only holding just over seven figures in their margin account, can each individually move over 10,000 options contracts a week with notional of $150m. Not my flavor, and likely never will be, but they have been pulling on average $20k weekly on those situations over the last couple years….
To each their own.
Jcer: The thing is in Paterson and other inner cities, there are some good hardworking people in those towns, and they have to deal with the people who don’t care.
If white liberals are serious about leveling the playing field then yes you need low and moderate income housing in rich towns, and if that means you have to take some of the bad then that’s the price you pay. Otherwise, it’s just white liberals paying lip service to their support of increasing opportunities for Black Americans.
I don’t disagree, honest people in the ghetto get the short end of the stick. You don’t need to move people around through subsidized programs to “level the playing field”, it simply doesn’t work. People should have agency, creating yet another distorted system will not “fix” anything. Most affluent suburban areas are not configured to deal with low income people, the services they depend on are simply don’t exist, the jobs are not proximate and the cost of commuting is higher, etc. The Dems have had many years to reform the inner cities and they haven’t managed cr@p. There are steps that could be taken to improve inner city schools but since that may offend the teachers union it will not be explored. Importing issues from the cities into suburban neighborhoods won’t help the poor city people but only harm the suburban folks. The opportunity zones were a good attempt but you see the dems don’t like this as it doesn’t give them control.
“The real economic cycle:
1. Use taxpayer dollars to inflate asset prices held by the rich.
2. Corporations buy back stock to inflate metrics to detriment of long term viability.
3. Executives cash out.
4. Companies collapse due to #2.
5. Bailout.
6. Repeat”
I feel bad for them too, but they should work hard to get out. That’s what I did. Moving to a rich neighborhood because of subsidized housing is not going to help. Still going to be living amongst them in subsidized housing. Aka planting a seed for this location to become poor since no one with money wants to deal with their sh!t. They will move away and you will be left with the same conditions you tried to take them out of.
3b says:
March 29, 2022 at 2:58 pm
Jcer: The thing is in Paterson and other inner cities, there are some good hardworking people in those towns, and they have to deal with the people who don’t care.
You understand that losing +50% and then gaining +100% in succession leaves you at the same place you started?
It is a rhetorical question, and I am not interested in your response which will be a lie.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 29, 2022 at 12:47 pm
Gets slammed on downtrends, and flies on upswings..
I see that Lib’s TDS is flaring. But at least we have this moment of clarity and sobriety…
Libturd says: March 21, 2022 at 11:57 am
“Biden sucks. We knew he would…”
Leave it at that Lib. Don’t embarrass yourself trying to convince any of us that Biden has done anything useful in his 50 years in DC. It’s clear to everyone except those of you consumed with TDS that Joe only cares about his 10% cut of whatever ill-gotten gains his crackhead kid can wrangle. And switch Biden for Harris, DeBlasio, Lightfoot, Buttigieg or just about any other modern Dem and your statement is just as accurate.
Chi,
Ark will be fine in the long-term. The farther it falls, the harder the rebound. Big money will be made in high growth this decade when the next bull cycle gets going.
At the end of the day, ark will beat the sh’t out of the indexes long-term and that’s all that matters to me. Next time it runs and peaks, I will be selling.
OC1,
most of us enjoy talking investments here. And it’s pretty valuable. Lib, Chi, and Left and others always add great perspective to things. It’s great to bounce ideas of each others brains. That being said, many of us independently cherry picked the bottom of the market in the 2020 sell off and the top of the market last November/December. In playing those turns correctly, those gains are quite significant.
I prefer passive investing, and basically have done so since 2009, just collecting dividends all along the way. But in the risk of major market events and big moves, it requires more attention. I actually think index investing is going to be the cause of a lot of pain for people. I do yearn for the days where I can just ignore my portfolio for years at a time again. I’m getting sick of looking at the market.
Next time it runs and peaks, I will be selling.
Didn’t you say you sold all of it yesterday?
What do Republicons say to the fact that Putin is scared he will be removed because of Joe’s talk and now reduced the scope of the war?
Are there any patriots among Replicons left?
Jcer: You see that’s the excuse many liberal suburbanites make. Our towns don’t offer the services, commuting is an issue, we would welcome low income moderate housing but it just won’t work here. There is some validity to your points and others not so much or can be addressed. At the end of the day the suburbanites who scream they are liberal and had their BLM signs on their lawns back in 2020 don’t want low income people in their towns. I understand their concerns and they have valid sometimes valid points but they can’t scream how liberal they are and then in the same breath say we don t want low income people in our town.
Unreal..
A former administrator at the Yale University School of Medicine has pleaded guilty to stealing $40 million from the school in a nearly decade-long computer and electronics purchasing fraud.
Federal prosecutors say Jamie Petrone, 42, used the money to buy a fleet of luxury cars including Mercedes, Land Rovers and Cadillac Escalades, numerous properties in several states and to pay for lavish trips.
She pleaded guilty on Monday to wire fraud and filing false tax returns and faces up to 30 years in prison when she is sentenced in June. Until then, she is free on a $1 million bond. Her attorney didn’t immediately return a message seeking comment.
Rent: You don’t know that. If Putin is afraid of being removed it’s because of how poorly the war is going for Russia and the sanctions on the oligarchs. He ain’t afraid of old Joe.
“Importing issues from the cities into suburban neighborhoods won’t help the poor city people but will only harm the suburban folks.”
Gotta think bigger than that. We have to incentivize the wealthy into living among the poor. Or for starters, regionalize the schools. Nah, will never happen. Because rich white kids won’t hang with poor black kids. Systemic racism.
SGC,
As weak as Biden has been, he is not dangerous. He also didn’t call anyone up during the stolen election, asking them to find 11,000 votes or incite an insurrection. So as bad as all of those Dems would have been, it’s simply better than the dictator that Trump thought he was.
That’s what Putin wants you to believe – he is afraid of no one. How do you know he’s not 3b? He may (or not) be afraid of President Biden, but he is definitely afraid of what America is selling – freedom.
And the real truth about Biden, is that he hasn’t been that bad. Spending is down, troops are out of Afghanistan and he is playing tough with Putin. Much of his poor performance is really just the populist narrative. If the Pope was a Democrat, he too would be thrown to the wolves by the populists.
Lib: Biden is dangerous enough with his constant gaffes it’s embarrassing as well to have the White House constantly have to step in and correct/clarify what he meant.
BRT-
I “picked” the 2020 market bottom too. Bought a bunch of stock (in index funds) on the exact day of the bottom.
100% dumb luck- my portfolio hit it’s rebalancing point, so I had to move money from bonds into stocks. ;)
As for the recent “top” and decline, as of right now, stocks are down, what, a few percent relative to that top? That’s all just noise.
Rent: You were the one that made a declarative statement that Putin’s apparent scaling back of the war is because of Biden’s tough talk. You don’t know that and yes neither do I . But, I am skeptical to say the least that he is scaling back because of Biden’s tough talk as you call it.
3b,
Yes, Biden puts his foot in his mouth all of the time. But he has an excuse. What is Trump’s?
Right, TDS. Never answer the real questions. Just make fun of the person asking them. It’s old, immature and transparent.
Lib: I love ya but seriously much of Biden’s poor performance is because of the populist narrative? I disagree, his poor performance is due to the fact he unfortunately is declining mentally, and he is and has been an empty suit career politician.
Lib: Biden the former two term VP and politician for 50 years in DC. Trump, a moron and a buffoon , that’s the difference. Yes, Biden is also in cognitive decline, but that was known prior to the election and the Dems still ran him as the candidate. After 4 years of lunacy all the the Dems could offer us was Biden?? Seriously??
OC1,
It depends on how risky your portfolio and which indexes you are invested in. Sadly, the vast majority of the people I know were overloaded in tech and paid a price of between 25 and 40%. Many rebalanced nearer to the bottom than to the top. They are down by more than just noise. And the recession has not even been announced yet, though there is a good chance we are either in it or will be shortly. You are obviously an intelligent investor. You rebalance regularly and ignore the noise. You are probably ahead of about 80% of the individual population. Of the 50% invested in equities, you are probably in the 40% who ignore the noise. Good for you. This is what I teach in my investment club. It works fine and in the long-term is your best option if you want to sleep at night and not make investing something you have to manage carefully to squeeze out better gains. Everyone has their hobbies. Some people waste all of their time on politics. Some people, Depeche Mode. To each their own. It’s only time and money.
3B,
I’m totally in agreement with you there. I’m not even a registered Democrat. I really am more of a centrist and used to be a Republican back before it became the party of assholes. But nonetheless. I’ll still take Biden over Trump. Hopefully they lock his lying cheating ass up soon. It will be better for the world. And perhaps Biden will die of old age. But then there is Harris. :P
3b,
I really don’t think Biden makes any decisions. I think it is Pelosi and to some extent, Schumer, pulling all of the strings. Amazing how quickly that rail tunnel was approved. The one that no one would pay for, even though it was known it was needed since the 80s. I can’t stand the establishment Dems almost as much as I can’t stand the populist Republicans. But I really don’t think this crew has been THAT bad. Great? Certainly not. More inactive, in my opinion. But not really scary.
Lib: If the choice was Biden vs Trump yes, I agree it’s not saying much , but proves my point that all the Dems could offer us was Biden, pretty sad.
I am a centrist overall, some issues I may lean left and some right. Like a lot of people ( or maybe not). The world is not black and white , nor simply left and right as the extremists on both sides think it is. I really wish we had a viable 3 rd party, but will never happen.
SmallG,
Biden doesn’t suck, but he does fart a lot.
Kamala and Buttigieg are apparently sucking enthusiasts.
Biden is dangerous, because he cannot ad-lib without creating a potential foreign affairs crisis. And it’s embarrassing for a president to constantly be corrected by his staff.
I’ll say that Trump is dangerous too, not stable, and basically a solipsist, who thinks nobody exists but him, and that reality is whatever he says it is. He probably actually thinks he’s never told a lie or exaggerated. I don’t want him in charge of the military, he reminds me of James Cagney in White Heat. “I made it Ma, top of the world!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-HCYYmJGBc
Not yesterday, last week. Went all in on building a position on DNA before the run. If DNA gets squeezed, going to sell into it. If not, might just hold the position. Love this long-term. Going to make a lot of people money.
For ark, Im talking about the next cycle. After the recession. So will be jumping in when that happens. I still think stocks get killed second qt, but we will see. Still didn’t buy back in with 401k, and this rally will test my strength, but bond market says recession…jcer/bystander talk this morning says recession. I have to stick to the odds that a recession is here or coming. Hope it works out. This is one hell of a rally…
BRT says:
March 29, 2022 at 4:40 pm
Next time it runs and peaks, I will be selling.
Didn’t you say you sold all of it yesterday?
Biden: I am not so sure Biden does not make the decisions or at least some of them, there is an arrogance to him when he is incoherent.
As for the tunnel I thinks it’s a waste of money, especially with the changing face of corporate work, what’s the point, but fine build it.
I’m COVID+. What are the latest guidelines?
I started feeling weird on Saturday AM and was in trouble by evening.
Well that depends on whether you support Fauci or want him fired.
5 days from Sat PM?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/quarantine-isolation.html#isolation
Five days of isolation if symptoms clear up. Then mask in public for five more.
The county wouldn’t give me a booster. Though approved by FDA, not yet distributing at county centers.
Did you lose sense of smell or taste?
That’s a likely sign of long covid coming.
Chi -hope you are boosted and carrying on almost ok.
Latest guidelines are that you should kiss at least one unvaccinated trumper
3b,
Biden was simply the old-grandpa, return to center, white bread that gave people easy off-ramp from the cult crazy train, even for some old fashioned George Will type Republicans. It was right decision for 2020. It was never a good solution for future. What is the future? Who the f knows but right has zero excuse for clinging to their treasonous failure of a prez. Imagine re-running Carter in 1984, stating Reagan stole his presidency…you would be a lunatic but Rs have been taken over by lunatics.
Boosted Dec 10
Still have taste.
Got hungry a few hours ago for first time since Saturday.
Stu perfect.
Saturday regardless of timing is day zero.
Five full days
Friday when I wake up I can venture out masked.
Rent. Thx!
Bystander: Skeptical on your analysis. If Biden was all we could do for 2020, then it does not bode well for the future.
“Love this quote from our built-to-rent conference today:
“You can’t build your way out of a bad piece of land.”
Even in a strong market, fundamentals matter”
Lmao
“Many guys asked me who’s my mentor ..how did I know about 980 LIS in $TSLA
It’s Nancy
A day after she bought almost 2 million dollar in stock, it jumped almost 10%
Prescient. Smart. Powered by Nancy.”
Chi,
Hope you feel better, Covid is not done with us yet. Be safe and stay positive , I have now had a few friends and neighbors who have passed, but all were 68 and older. Funny thing is my mom is turning 97, in a nursing home and never caught it even though the nursing home had many cases of the disease.
BRT-
I “picked” the 2020 market bottom too. Bought a bunch of stock (in index funds) on the exact day of the bottom.
100% dumb luck- my portfolio hit it’s rebalancing point, so I had to move money from bonds into stocks. ;)
As for the recent “top” and decline, as of right now, stocks are down, what, a few percent relative to that top? That’s all just noise.
The point was, not for bragging purposes, but to show, it’s been useful to discuss markets on this board. As far as top & decline being just a few percentage points, this was exactly what I was referring to where a lot of investors are going to get hurt indexing. You are looking at the indexes and not the underlying assets. The performance of Apple, Microsoft, and Google are masking the pain. If those turn, the exits are going to cause the price action to go bad on the indexes with forced selling.
On this board some of us were playing the action on stocks like Roku, Teladoc, Docusign, Okta, Sea Ltd, Shopify and a bunch of others that collapsed as much as 70%. Even catching half of that action on the short side paid off very handsomely. It got to the point where by the end January, it was too damn easy with a 100% hit rate profitable shorts.
My opinion, the indexers get hurt in a broad market selloff. The people doing the traditional 60/40 are going to get hurt as well.
Chi – all joking aside go see a Doctor preferably one that does not quack.
Hope you feel better soon.
Chgo : Feel better. Covid is no joke, it’s not just a flu. Had it twice end of year into January, or it could have been a relapse from the first one. Some similar symptoms with both/ relapse some different. Get as much rest as you can.
We are off to the Nationals for Tier II hockey tomorrow. Son’s team lucked into the toughest bracket, so they’ll be playing the best kids in the country whose parents aren’t Triple-A crazy.
3b,
Let’s be realistic, you put a progressive up there like Warren or gay up and comer like Pete then Trump wins. You overestimate the average voter and their willingness to vote incumbent out. Change is easier after 8 years of other party (ala Bush, Obama and Trump) It is nearly impossible after only 4 years, even with Trump’s dumpster fire presidency. You had to make it more palatable. Center, easy, reliable old glove..getting in is all that matters. The party molds you to their needs. Trump did nothing but pack same tired old R politics. He was no rogue game changer.
Chi feel better.
Take it easy man, don’t rush it. You don’t want to be in a position where you push yourself and end up dragging it out longer. Do the time.
Trump is Putin….
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/trump-putin-hunter-biden/index.html
Interesting take on inflation.
https://cws.substack.com/p/cws-market-review-march-29-2022?s=r
Bystander: And still all they could come up with is Biden? As for putting up a progressive, the majority of Americans are not ready for that yet. And with some of their hysterics it’s understandable. Portraying America as evil from top to bottom is not going to win votes , and it’s understandable.
N.J. town sues woman, 82, for ‘voluminous’ and ‘burdensome’ public records requests
https://www.nj.com/news/2022/03/nj-town-sues-woman-82-for-voluminous-and-burdensome-public-records-requests.html
…
“It’s especially ludicrous that they’re saying she filed 75 OPRA requests in three years,” said CJ Griffin, a Hackensack attorney who focuses on public records access. “That’s the equivalent of two a month. You could file two OPRA requests a month just for the meeting minutes, so it’s in no way harassing.
“It would be a dangerous precedent if towns are allowed to start suing people because they file two requests a month, or even if they file 10. Reporters might need to file 20 a month, right? There’s nothing in the statute that authorizes them to do that and it’s retaliatory.”
…
This isn’t the first time a township has sued a resident citing a high volume of OPRA requests.
In 2017, a Superior Court judge ordered the township of Teaneck pay a resident, Elie Jones, nearly $20,000 after it attempted to bar him from filing OPRA requests — after he filed more than 300 requests over two months.
I would just give the filer a job with the town.
3b, Putin is scaling back the war because the Russian Army is a clusterfcuk. They have logistics issues, so they need to hunker down while they resupply. The Ukrainians I believe have been effective at preventing the Russian rail corps from setting up rail resupply and the doing so by motorized vehicle over road is not something the Russians are equipped to do, they need the pipelines and rail because they simply do not have the vehicles nor is the infrastructure reliable at this point. Biden’s gaffs have less than zero to do with it. I think the Russians also are changing their strategy, they don’t want to take Ukraine, they are interested in Donbass, Lugansk, and the Black Sea Coast. I think the original strategy was to terrorize Kiev in an attempt to get a quick surrender where they could get at least neutrality(no NATO), the eastern regions and a renunciation of claims to Crimea. They failed and now will focus on capturing the territory they intend to keep.
Chi, feel better.
Lib, good luck brother! Enjoy!
Post updates!
3b, I agree liberals are hypocritical. From my perspective the idea of moving the poor into rich neighborhoods is fundamentally unworkable, so yes it is hypocritical but it is a rare moment of clear thinking for the liberals. Even from the perspective of the poor person they will live in an area where they are so much poorer than the median, it will not be good for their mental state.
Libturd, you cannot be more wrong about rich white kids and poor black kids. You’d be surprised how easily they can get along. The bigger issue is how hard it is on that poor kid living in a “rich world”, the rich kids have no concept of people not having everything at their beck and call and the poor kid won’t have any of the cool stuff. As for rich and poor living in proximity, just look at Jersey City or Hoboken and you’ll find plenty of very rich people living close to dirt poor people, the net effect is that the rich squeeze the poor out. The rich moving into poor areas is called “gentrification”. Businesses that the poor utilized have been pushed out for yuppie type establishments and the schools are still terrible.
There’s a percentage of poor kids that would do very well if allowed to attend a well to do suburb school district. What is it? 10% 15%? I don’t know. But what I do know is they are prevented from doing so. What I also know is that they constantly short change us on money for facilities, equipment, and what not. We operate on the bare minimum or even less. My coworker and I just had to design a new lab from old pretzel bins and duct tape. If you go to an inner city school district, they have a classroom budget that dwarfs ours by thousands of dollars every year. If we could get 10% of that back instead of sending it down the Abbott hole and take on 10% of their students, it would be a net win for everyone. It will never happen though.
JCer,
It was sarcasm. Of course the kids would get along fine. The parents though. The white parents? They would never allow it.
BRT I understand this situation, you see these kids perform in the magnet schools and even the catholic schools if their families can figure out how to pay for it. Funding the urban schools has been a waste, the money doesn’t go where it needs to go(generally they tend to have a lot of no show jobs, bogus contracts, and 100k per year typing teachers) and it isn’t helping the proficiency of the students. The issue with busing students is the inner city schools don’t want to be rid of the kids who can pass a test so they will try by hook or by crook to send Bebo to Ridgewood High.
What NJ regulators are misunderstanding about the potential cannabis market in NJ, is that far more than half the medicinal market is the recreational market, they are nearly one in the same. As a result, they are likely overestimating the potential demand. All this talk about how to guarantee supply to the medicinal market over the recreational market – it’s not an issue, and it’s certainly not an issue for NJ to solve. Let the market work, I trust it more than the NJ politburo mandating a specific inventory level to move forward and open. I wouldn’t want to be a grower in that market, with inventory that can spoil and may need to be destroyed if it drags out.
Bigger issues right now are coming from the “wham bam price increases”.
That’s what I’m hearing is f*cking companies unexpectedly.
It’s the suppliers that haven’t increased prices for 5-10 years now piling on everything at once with a huge price increase to make up for a half-full decade or more. 20-30-40% price increases, followed by everyone else in their industry once they see a competitor pull the trigger.
We just saw it, one of our cork bottle closure suppliers just raised prices by 50%.
Multimillionaire co-founder of Blackrock says our entire generation is entitled, had never had to sacrifice. We’re now going to need to learn what sacrifice means?
Wow.
Those kids do well in the district and carry the scores. Also, top students go to magnate schools. My district separated the good kids from the bad kids by eliminating middle school and creating two prep schools from grades 7-12. My school is the dumping ground for the rest.
“There’s a percentage of poor kids that would do very well if allowed to attend a well to do suburb school district. What is it? 10% 15%?”
Guess he is predicting bad times?
grim says:
March 30, 2022 at 6:52 am
Multimillionaire co-founder of Blackrock says our entire generation is entitled, had never had to sacrifice. We’re now going to need to learn what sacrifice means?
Wow.
New Mazda cx-50 suv looks pretty sharp. Love that baseball glove interior leather – reminds me of my ol bimmer with the terra-cotta interior. Though Audi did it best in the original TT, with that thick leather cord stitch.
Chi hope you feel better soon. If it’s been less than a week since diagnosis get some Paxlovid. Hope you’re symptoms are mild.
Grim,
Is cannabis purely about money for you or do you have some level of interest and passion for the product? My impression is that most of the industry is only interested in the money.
Yup, no more avocado toast for you.!!! 50% price increases wholesale. The Avocado mafia raised its selling prices by 50% since LAST YEAR, even though the blip in supply was in supposedly February of THIS YEAR.
From Missions Balance sheet (They control 50% of the Avocado market)
“Fiscal First Quarter 2022 Highlights:
Total revenue of $216.6 million, a 25% increase compared to the same period last year, impacted by average selling price increases of 50%, partially offset by an 18% decrease in avocado volume sold, compared to the same period last year”
Three Months Ended January 31 2022 2021
Average sales price per pound(1) $ 1.56 $ 1.04
Funny they are having a bad time putting in an new ERP too they blame the tech guys for their losses.
https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-produce-announces-fiscal-2022-first-quarter-financial
We’re now going to need to learn what sacrifice means?
It’s about time. When the media and muppet masses start squabbling over bathroom confusion, you know it’s time for a reboot. It’s time for muppets to earn their keep, one barefooted step at a time. I have no problem going to the mattresses, let’s see if the gender-confused rabble can survive the same.
Weed is about money. Congress(House) is poised to Pass their bill to make it legal and more importantly TAXED this week, possible vote on the house floor today. Import tax starting at 5% increasing to 8%. (Wait we are going to allow the legal import of Weed? What about all the local growers, they will get crushed by cheap Mexican weed.)
Our own Senator Booker is leading the charge and sponsoring the Senate Bill. Expect an impassioned speech about it.
Here is the read on the current Bill.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3617/text
My impression is that most of the industry is only interested in the money.
There’s another reason other than money to get into this industry?
Bit more on the Bill. It actually contains a Federal excise tax (when leaving cultivator) graduating from 5% to 8% on product produced in or imported weed.
Absolutely amazing that the co founder of Blackrock who earned over 20 million last year is telling millennials they need to sacrifice! Talk about tone deaf!!
Great Recession, pandemic, student loan debt inflated real estate prices and on it goes.
The Boomers are the entitled generation. Don’t be surprised that Socialism is going to appeal to a lot more young people going forward. Of course it’s not the answer but that’s bedsides the point.
3b,
I’ve been arguing this point pretty much since college. When I was younger, income disparity was much closer. There were always the oligarchs, but they were far and in between. And they gave back. Getty, DuPonts, Rockefeller, the Fords, Mellons and the Kennedys, in the mid 20th century. If you travel around the country, you will see their names on parks, museums, libraries and schools. Many of them still offer scholarships and foundation help to those in need. And though many of these families have multi-generational wealth, the size of the nest eggs pale in comparison with the Nuveau Riche. How can this be? Well mainly it’s due to the gross increases in compensation for the corporate executive class. So even though the Bezos, Musks and Zuckerbergs make infinitely more in compensation than say the Fords or the DuPonts. Their philanthropy pales in comparison. And even when they are a bit charitable, it is usual in a way that benefits the corporation (research hospitals, university buildings) where they are building their personal war chests from.
I suppose, this was bound to happen in a country that celebrates Freedom. Sadly, that freedom extends to the right to be selfish. And now that same selfishness is trickling down to the serfs. Though I am not excusing it in any way. I am not surprised by the recent uptick in violent crime and especially theft. After all, this is America and I suppose that’s a freedom too. If you can’t govern in a way that’s fair. Then don’t expect the dregs to play fair too.
Well, to be fair, at least boomers left their house for work. Some of these younger generations had it easy growing up. Trophy for everyone. A’s for just trying. Lower college standards. Hell, some of these recent college graduates have never had to go to work, they have never even met their co-workers in person. They are soft… I’ve been teaching them for years. It is what it is though…as societies progress, they become soft over time. Instead of worrying about surviving, they worry about pronouns. Life is tough.
As for high housing costs…blame capitalism. Lots of these boomer’s kids hit the jackpot on their parent’s housing. Set for life, unless they f/k it up. I didn’t get a house/houses from my parents…poor me. Had to earn it.
“The Boomers are the entitled generation. Don’t be surprised that Socialism is going to appeal to a lot more young people going forward. Of course it’s not the answer but that’s bedsides the point.”
Trophy for everyone. A’s for just trying. Lower college standards.
Who gave them the trophies and unearned grades?
Having rich parents can be a good thing or bad thing. I was better off, because it gave me motivation to do well in life since I knew I was not getting anything from my parents. For some kids (hope it doesn’t happen to my daughter), having successful parents destroys them….just kills their ambition and motivation. Life is tough, no right answer I guess.
Society…richer we get, the softer we become.
PumpkinFace says:
March 30, 2022 at 9:26 am
Trophy for everyone. A’s for just trying. Lower college standards.
Who gave them the trophies and unearned grades?
I didn’t do it, society made me do it! Hooray for personal accountability
Who gives their children a house? My 16 year old kid made 7K last year. He will be buying his own car. And house.
Sheesh.
I’m only paying for his college until he fukcs up.
Lib: I agree. I forget the numbers, but from the 1980s the difference between the lowest paid at a company and the CEO has increased by a staggering amount. As well there is little to no consequences for those at the top that break the law, they can buy justice.
I was talking to a friend of mine in the Chicago area last night ,and he told me a woman in his town who made around 250k on insider trading was sentenced to one year in prison. Did she commit a crime? Yes, but how does she get a year in prison, and to your Mozillo reference the other day, he walks away with barely a slap.
Justice? Really? Now we are where we are, and we have some asshole telling millennials they are entitled and need to learn to sacrifice. The deck is stacked against them and the solution is to sacrifice? Far easier in my day starting out building wealth , quality of life etc.
Then of course we have the protected public sector class, who don’t need to concern themselves with recessions good times, bad times. They don’t get laid off , they get their benefits and of course their pensions and then many up and leave the state. Some of them pride themselves on getting up and leaving their house and clocking in for the day, and then spend most of the workday posting on blogs and getting paid for it while they should be working.
Says the guy pointing the finger…loser.
What are you blaming me for?
Dude, you could have become a public servant if you wanted. Why didn’t you if you think it’s so great? I chose to do this…my bad for choosing to do this.
“Then of course we have the protected public sector class, who don’t need to concern themselves with recessions good times, bad times. They don’t get laid off , they get their benefits and of course their pensions and then many up and leave the state. Some of them pride themselves on getting up and leaving their house and clocking in for the day, and then spend most of the workday posting on blogs and getting paid for it while they should be working.”
Ruthless, but it might help them. Imagine living in Glen Ridge and having to buy your own car. I will tell you what, your kid is definitely not soft.
Libturd says:
March 30, 2022 at 9:54 am
Who gives their children a house? My 16 year old kid made 7K last year. He will be buying his own car. And house.
Sheesh.
I’m only paying for his college until he fukcs up.
“Ruthless, but it might help them. Imagine living in Glen Ridge and having to buy your own car. I will tell you what, your kid is definitely not soft.”
That’s how I was raised. That’s how he’ll be raised. Where I differ with my parents though, is that I actually care about him and listen to him. My parents were the opposite of helicopter parents. They were MIA parents from an emotional support side. They raised seven, extremely tough, but very successful children. Thick skin helps. Quite honestly, I don’t give a flying F what anyone thinks of me. I judge myself harshly enough. Plus in most cases, you are soft or just plain lazy and stupid anyway so what value does it have?
Anyone park at ABC parking in Newark lately? Have no choice but to park for 5 days. Lots of bags and 5 of us going.
I use Parking Spot in EWR, it’s the best from a location and pickup perspective.
The Haynes location on 1&9
Yeah. Used them in the past many times and agree, it’s pretty quick in and out. Way back in the day, it included a car wash. I’m just too cheap. If you pay cash, ABC works out to like $13 a day. Sometimes, you can even sweet talk the nice people there into a better discount depending on who is working the office (in the trailer).
You may be able to find a 15-20% promo code for Parking Spot that takes it down a bit.
But wow, $25+ a day now? That’s A LOT more expensive than it was last time I flew (last year).
Lib,
Most parents don’t have the balls to be a good parent like yourself this day and age. Doing a good job and hopefully your kid will be thankful in the end.
My wife does not hold back with my daughter. I try to explain that we have to be tougher on her, but she claims it’s her only child. I’m not winning this battle, so I gave up. Try to win whenever I can, but it’s hard with the wife stepping in and giving whatever she wants (to a point…for example I want her to do chores, but my wife says no). I am fortunate, though, that my daughter is a good kid. Just hope that doesn’t change in high school when friends start to influence her to the dark side of life.
Yeah, I just looked too. ABC has always been good to us. Though, about once every 5 trips, you’ll have to wait 20 minutes for their shuttle. Once again, sweet talking will get you far with the lady in the office who dispatches the van.
They are all good kids. It’s up to parents to make them responsible members of society. I hold the parents at fault for most kids who behave like assholes. I only wish the law did so too.
I would guess that less than 5% of teenagers in Glen Ridge have paying jobs outside of the Summer. During the Summer, it probably goes up to 20%. When I ask other parents, they are too worried about their kid’s grades.
NJCoast. Thank you.
As an aside, I will always remember the gracious real estate help you gave us in 2008-2009, and also the Springsteen thing. Thanks always.
Speaking of booking, I’m trying to book a few one night/two night stays at a few race tracks in the Northeast and some are minimum two or three night stays and A LOT are booked. Are people going post covid crazy?
YES!
You can’t even get a parking spot at the place Grim mentioned.
We booked our upcoming Costa Rica trip back in December and already, most of the hotels were near capacity.
There is always the Las Vegas International Speedway.
Blackrock
You cannot take anything out of them at face value.
Fink’s initiative on ESG is based on BCG research that wants to create a defendable moat to combat passive investing and fee compression. A cost/benefits analysis. No moral imperative.
This latest rhetoric is obviously a thinly-veiled attempt to create leverage in recruiting, as well as anchoring a free data point to millennial investors.
They will want to point back to March 2022 and say that they were ahead of the curve and saw the trouble coming. In 2027. Hey millennials. Just inherited your dad’s trust. Invest in Blackrock. We tell it to you like it is.
No downside free call option on bullshit.
There is always the Las Vegas International Speedway.
That race was in early March. They’ll be back there in October. Maybe I should consider it. :)
Yeah, it’s busy everywhere. We’re doing the Disney thing in June, I’m sure it’s going to be an absolute madhouse.
grim,
It’s nuts. Everywhere is booked up like crazy, no matter the event or occasion.
Grim, as much as I can’t stand the whole concept of the Fast Pass. If you don’t pay to cut the line, you won’t get on anything.
Disney is the absolute biggest rip off vacation. But besides the lines, the service levels are really high and the food at many of the restaurants is a step above chain restaurants. I went once as a kid and Tomorrowland stuck with me throughout my childhood. For whatever reason, I thought Mission to Mars was the coolest concept ever. I was also intrigued by that dumb carousel of progress (which is still there and updated for the better). Space Mountain is still in my top 5 roller coasters of all time. Expect to spend $500 per person per day. :P
That’s staying in the Park. You can stay about $150 per person and stay off park, but you will be with the ghetto crowd, which CAN be entertaining.
Man, episode 3 of season 25 South Park is hilarious. Mocking the hell out of the real estate market. City people -Chitty people. lmao. Wi fi wi-fi…lmao
Best episode in a long time.
We typically will rent someone’s DVC timeshare. We’re staying at Bay Lake (Contemporary) – I managed to snag a great deal there. Being able to walk to/from Magic Kingdom and not have to deal with any kind of transportation is a big appeal for us. DVC timeshares also have full kitchens, and we have groceries delivered. Doing breakfasts/snacks at the hotel saves a ton of time and money.
The Disney money grab got much worse this year though, now you need to pay for the ability to fastpass (it’s called Genie+ now), and it’s $15 per day per person. You need to pay for that to get access to Lightning Lane – which is for the popular rides, which can no longer be fast passed for “free”, so there is an additional surcharge on top of the Genie+ price, on a per-ride basis ($5-15 per person per RIDE). Tickets/Rides alone for a family of 4 are $500 a day easy.
It’s nuts. There will be a full on revolt.
Lib, my son was obsessed with the Carousel of Progress. In Hollywood Studios, Rise of the Resistance is the best ride I’ve ever been on.
Space mountain still mine and the families favorite roller coaster of all time. We would go early and get on 5 or 6 times in a row; front seats of course!
Rise of the Resistance Lightning Lane is always $15 per person per ride. Nuts.
We are supposed to go to Disney this year…doing it for our daughter. She is 8 and I want her to experience it while still young. We just are not into big amusement parks and dealing with those angry crowds, but can’t wait any longer. We were booked to go in november of 2020, but covid ruined that.
Still haven’t booked because my wife is waiting on her sister, and I’m sure we are going to get screwed since we want to go last week in june or first week in july.
“What Happens in Las Vegas Costs More
Tourists roll with higher prices for food, hotels and shows on the Strip, a $32 strawberry daiquiri”
“Eventually these customers who are spending like crazy are going to go back to normal,” he said. “They’re not going to have that money to spend. They’re going to get tired of the gouging…I think that Vegas is looking at a very difficult time coming pretty soon.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-in-las-vegas-costs-more-11648652400?mod=hp_featst_pos4
Shoulda just did what I did. We hit up Disney at the peak of the Delta Wave. It was relatively empty. I never want to go there during a crowded season again.
Only time I went in my adult life was when we took advantage of our son’s cancer. We were escorted onto every ride with no wait. Though, he had to come with us, so we probably overdid it just a bit.
BRT,
We flew everywhere the month after 9-11. Airfare was like $150 to anywhere round trip and the planes were empty. Safest time to fly in the history of flying. There were armed marshals on every plane.
Libturd says:
March 29, 2022 at 5:10 pm
“As weak as Biden has been, he is not dangerous…”
Wrong! Much like Carter’s Mariel Boatlift fiasco allowed Castro to empty his jails into Florida and cause major regionalized spikes in crime, I suspect we’ll find that Joe’s open border fiasco, combined with the disastrous policies of leftists Dem mayors and DA’s, will lead to elevated crime rates for years to come. I have little doubt that some countries are sending criminals north. And how about political corruption? Joe has elevated it to an art form by having his kid pose as an artist, selling artworks for hundreds of thousands of dollars to unnamed buyers. Surely, this will be copied in some form by future sociopaths posing as politicians. Just a couple of examples, but yeah, Joe is very dangerous.
Try concert tickets. Pearl Jam is $350 for Camden lawn. Roger Waters is $250 for anything not a nosebleed at MSG. Closer to stage 400 plus. Did I tell we the name of the game, Rog? We call it riding the gravy train.
oops, I think you guys got that lyric.
Smart move. My wife was too scared, but it was the winning move.
BRT says:
March 30, 2022 at 1:20 pm
Shoulda just did what I did. We hit up Disney at the peak of the Delta Wave. It was relatively empty. I never want to go there during a crowded season again.
Come in here, dear boy, have a cigar, you’re gonna go far…
Saw Waters about a decade ago, Dark Side of the Moon tour. It was one of the best concerts I ever saw… opened up with “In the Flesh” and I thought my heart was going to stop. lol. Ticket prices for everything is nuts.
“hundreds of thousands of dollars to unnamed buyer”
Wow, that is like one secret payout to a pron star by a “David Dennison”.
Ed,
You want a cheap but very good Floyd fix with some Phish and Talking Heads weaved in, go to Wellmont in Montclair on Sat. It is $15-20 bucks. Pink Talking Fish. A little smoke, you can’t got wrong. They are very good for what they are. Wish I could go.
Here is a scandal to look into Smallbrain. 1/2m spent by taxpayers to keep faux audit from AZ public, even with two court mandates. All time and money spent yet R AZ scum won’t provide records. Why? What a sad, disgusting party.
As we approach Month No. 10 in Senate President Karen Fann’s legal battle to keep secrets about Arizona’s election audit, it seems a good time for Arizona taxpayers to contemplate a question:
Just how much (of our) money is Fann willing to spend to prevent us from getting a look at the backroom maneuverings and outside manipulation that resulted in her election audit?
How much (of our) money is she willing to spend to prevent us from seeing public records detailing how she came to be auditing Maricopa County’s election and why she hired wholly unqualified, blatantly biased auditors to do the job?
Fann has lost in court but keeps fighting
Thus far, Fann has lost her bid to keep secrets in every court at every level.
Two Superior Court judges have ordered the Senate – and, in one of the two lawsuits, the Cyber Ninjas – to turn over thousands of emails, texts and other documents associated with the audit.
The Court of Appeals has ordered her to turn over records … twice.
Through February, the Senate racked up nearly $500,000 in lawyer fees to fight the release of records, according to a report this week by KJZZ’s Dillon Rosenblatt.
re: Park costs. Univeral Florida surge pricing for Tickets and Express Passes is now insane for Easter break.
Universal Studios Florida + Universal’s Islands of Adventure 2nd week of April.
Park-to-Park 2-Park – 3-Days PLUS (2 Days Free Ticket)
Ticket $293.99 Park to Park (three days)
Express Pass $289.99 (once per ride) PER DAY total $869.97
Per Person Total for three days.. $1,163.96 + taxes
Sure you can go for three days for $293.99 but going without express passes is a waste of time, it’s usually a three hour wait per ride with the huge crowds.
Juice: We did Disney twice when kids were young. It was enjoyable and they loved it, but even then it was overpriced. I know people who have been there 15 or 20 times! Insane in my mind but to each his own.
We all used to really enjoy Hershey Park, more civilized and certainly cheaper.
I enjoyed Hershey quite a bit, it’s a great area with lots to do.
Troegs Brewing is a must-do.
Did I tell we the name of the game, Rog? We call it riding the gravy train.
Well done.
Oh, and by the way, which one’s Pink?
Joy oh joy, subpoenaed for a deposition in a corporate lawsuit against a company I’m not even an employee of anymore.
Grim Yes, it is a great area and the park is well maintained and as you said lots to. I don’t recall the brewery , but that may be a more recent addition.
Has Disney converted the Carousel of Progress into the Carousel of Wokeness? Because over the years that’s how it’s been going. 20 years ago they switched Pirates of the Caribbean, such that it was women chasing the pirate men rather than the original reverse (the subtext was that the Pirates were planning to rape the women – which apparently once happened!) They’ve got to be drooling over the prospects of installing Bootyjudge (sp) in the Hall of the Presidents someday.
Don’t like Disney, don’t go.
No one: Disney will no longer be using boys and girls in their parks greetings. The madness continues. Sad.
NoOne, Even the jungle river cruise was ruined by the movement.
Small, there is a recording of Trump asking the Governor of Georgia for 11,0000 more votes. Rah, rah red team.
Disney will be just fine. Those who can afford it will go just the same.
My cherry blossom tree is now losing all it’s leaves…
“Sure you can go for three days for $293.99 but going without express passes is a waste of time, it’s usually a three hour wait per ride with the huge crowds.”
You nj people are straight up fucking nuts.
Lib, kinda banged up before a bobby concert otherwise I would text directly but just float an airport ride request out there… I’d give you a drop off or pickup for a pay it forward…
Some one : No one said it would not, although you never know at some point. As far as affording it, one thing to slap the trip on a credit card, another thing as to whether all the people that go there can actually afford it.
The End Is Nigh (No One Carousel Of Wokeness Edition):
https://nypost.com/2022/03/30/disney-executive-wants-more-lgbtqia-minority-character/
Wonder when the woke community realizes our species needs to reproduce and that a society is only as strong as the nuclear families that make it up.
Being woke requires you ignore facts.