From Mortgage News Daily:
Mortgage Rates Surge Well Into the 6% Range After One of The Worst Days in Decades
It’s hard to quantify just how bad today was for mortgage rates because there’s no quality day-over-day mortgage rate data from before 2009 (when we created our own). In that time, there has only been one other comparable day to today in terms of the jump in mortgage rates.
As a fan of the whole truth, I feel compelled to say that there were a few days in March 2020 that were bigger, but I’m not counting them as comparable days because they were the product of TWO-WAY volatility and a once-in-a-lifetime combination of market conditions and Fed policy response.
That leaves July 5, 2013 as the only truly comparable day. It too came at a time when rates had already been rising rapidly in response to an evolving outlook for Fed policy. The difference back then was that the Fed had simply decided it was time to finally begin unwinding some of the easy policies put into place after the Financial Crisis. This time around, the Fed is in panic mode about runaway inflation. And today specifically, it’s the market that’s panicked about the Fed’s potential panic at the upcoming meeting and policy announcement set to be released at 2pm on Wednesday afternoon.
…
In total, rates moved up from the high fives to the low 6s. But pinning down an actual rate is very tricky right now due to the structure of the mortgage bond market. It’s hard to explain without getting into esoteric details, but the gist is that there is normally more profit for banks when their clients choose a higher interest rate. This is why no-closing-cost loans can exist. The rates are high enough to cover the lenders’ cost and profit. Those same lenders could also quote lower rates, but with the difference being that the borrower would be paying some closing costs.
At present, that “premium pricing” just isn’t so premium. That means in many cases, it may make more sense to pay higher upfront costs because they will do more than normal to bring you down to the next rate lower. To put this in perspective, if it normally costs roughly 1 point to drop your rate quote by 0.25%, that same point can bring the rate 0.50% lower in many cases today. So if you can opt to pay a point to get your rate down to 5.625%-5.875%, but a more typical closing cost structure suggests rates are 6.125-6.375%, what’s the going rate?
Our index accounts for fluctuations in upfront cost in order to accurately represent the day over day change. It suggests the average going rate for the average lender rose from 5.85% to 6.18% on a flawless scenario from Friday to today.
Block chain? More like Block head.
Isn’t that what the mob did when trying to get rid of bodies in the ocean? Some chain and cinderblocks?
The damn sun wakes me up every day.
Consensus Estimates forecast that PPI will decelerate from an 11% rise in April to 10.6% when released today.
We shall see as it will mean a bigger rate hike is on the table if the Fed cannot get inflation under control.
Let’s blame the Fed for crypto decline as well. The price decline in crypto is somehow now tied to the real world economy.We cannot explain how but love to jaw bone about a comeback once inflation moderates. Heck we were the anti-central bank currency for a while but now we found ourselves beholden to their Fed funds rate magic too as the banks are also increasing costs to borrow real money to buy into our decentralized scheme to fleece everyone. Anyone who bought crypto in the last few months since the Super Bowl commercials are probably cursing Tom Brady and Matt Damon right now, they however are laughing to the real bank as they were paid most in US Dollars and not crypto…
Long weekends forever since WFH (work from the beach) became a thing.
https://nypost.com/2022/06/13/hamptons-parties-go-all-week-long-thanks-to-remote-work/
That Damon commercial nearly nailed the top.
Loads of Matt Damon hate on social media this week..
https://twitter.com/HighyieldHarry/status/1536412338122903555?cxt=HHwWhsC-pbO4t9IqAAAA
It suggests the average going rate for the average lender rose from 5.85% to 6.18% on a flawless scenario from Friday to today.
Once “higher mortgage rates” becomes coffee table talk among the muppet plebs, I’m curious to see how the inventory numbers look in a few months. I think the fence-sitters will be running for the exit.
Lol…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-much-money-you-wouldve-lost-if-you-bought-crypto-during-matt-damons-fortune-favors-the-brave-commercial-11652379170
When does the Fed jawbone we need to get used to higher unemployment again?
Chapter 11 commercial filings in May increased 34% from a year earlier. Bankruptcy rates were kept in check by the Paycheck Protection Program and other programs to keep the zombie companies alive during the pandemic.
A recession or significant slowdown may well trigger the washout and bankruptcies that never happened because of the pandemic. Retail sales # out are expected to slow and people are pulling back on spending.
Apt…
https://dailystoic.com/fortune-favors-the-brave/
As Mount Vesuvius erupted, those who could run away did. Those who were far away could see only the plumes of smoke and ash. But Pliny the Elder, an admiral and amateur scientist, was immediately curious. He planned to go investigate until a messenger came with urgent news from a friend trapped at the foot of the mountain. Assembling the fleet, Pliny rushed to the scene in utter fearlessness to rescue all those he could by boat.
Arriving, he found the shoreline blocked by debris. A helmsman advised they turn back. We talked before about how “fortune favors the bold.” Do you know where that expression comes from? From Pliny, who refused to turn back. “‘Fortes fortuna iuvat: Pomponianum pete,’” he commanded. “Fortune favors the bold, head for Pomponianus.” As Pliny’s nephew recounted, what “he had begun in a spirit of inquiry he completed as a hero.” Tragically, Pliny did not survive. His friend Pomponianus, however, did.
This inflation is transitory. No need to worry. Besides, the build back better $4 trillion dollar stimulus package will see us through!
Divine punishment has been explored in paintings, plays, and novels for centuries and now well movies.
What will people think, write and make movies about in a decade or more when they look back and see a bunch of monkey jpegs that sold for $$$?
History Rhymes…..shades of the Dot-com layoffs during the recession in 2001 when the tech companies blamed the layoffs and bankruptcies any anything but their own hubris.
From Yesterdays BlockFi layoff
“We’ve been through several tough days at BlockFi in the past, but today is probably the hardest. Like many others in the Tech industry, we have been impacted by the dramatic shift in macroeconomic conditions worldwide. We are in the gut wrenching position of needing to reduce our headcount today. This is not a decision we take lightly and candidly is one that brings us great sadness.
We are reducing our headcount by roughly 20% and the reduction impacts every team at the company. This decision was driven by market conditions that have had a negative impact on our growth rate and a rigorous review of our strategic priorities.
Today is a painful day for BlockFi but more so for employees who we have to part ways with. We are doing everything in our power to treat all of our impacted colleagues with the empathy and compassion that they deserve.
We know these folks are some of the brightest minds in crypto and fintech and are working to ensure they find a new opportunity when they’re ready. Impacted team members can opt in to include their contact information in a directory of people looking for new roles. Our People team will be connecting our former colleagues directly with companies that are hiring.”
I wonder how many of these folks were actually based in NYC and moved to NYC for this tech job? Those expensive apartment leases they signed too could mean moving out in the middle of the night and making as dash back home to mom and dads basement.
You know, 20% RIF in a blockchain company doesn’t actually sound all that bad. Retaining 80% of associates in that industry doesn’t sound like a bloodletting at all.
Chatter on the street now, is 75 a given some saying full 1 point increase, and that would be the real surprise.
Juice ; It was quiet on a Sunday when we were there a week ago. We did go to 75 Main that’s mentioned in the article. The cocktails were excellent.
We enjoyed the Hamptons for the wedding/ long weekend we were there. But, still prefer the Jersey shore.
Round 1 Grim? I am just speaking of the Defi ones that are lending money to crypto assets owners to keep the casino open.
These startups offer USD loans for crypto-asset owners and then they take custody of the crypto transfer it to their wallets etc. You either pay back the loan or they keep the crypto and liquidate it. Crypto loan providers have no government rules like FDIC requirements or any other regulation as well it’s not money.
And well they repackaging and selling that real money debt as collateralized loans etc to investors. Who is holding and still buying these CDOs now? They are using the same “financial weapons of mass destruction” that triggered subprime collapse.
Sure this is not big as housing, but is anyone buying these crypto CDOs? Hope they don’t repeat the same mistakes as what happened with housing. Once the music stops all these crypto lending shops go chapter 11.
“The real crime was committed by the government, with your consent or encouragement…so let’s get the terminology correct…
I see all over how ‘covid’ caused all these disruptions…not true.
Our RESPONSE to covid caused all the pain we are feeling.”
Boomer did. The youth had no hand in any of this.
As usual, boomer was in control.
While the boomer teachers were home shaking in their boots-the majority of people in my profession were attacking this unknown virus head on. We showed up to work every day. I was helping train a large group of young nurses at the time. I’m not even going to describe what they saw just coming straight out of school. I never experienced it either and we were all randomly attacked ourselves by the same virus that took out a few of my colleagues.
And we had no supplies. No masks, no gowns no packs.
It all came from China. Where boomer and Wall Street sent our jobs in the late 70’s and 80’s.
China knew what was happening. Months before we sent back hundreds of packs to the manufacturer as they were recalled due to them not being “sterile.” Yeah, they were sterile. China needed them and wanted them back, so lied.
Supply chain? Your greed for profit and PASSIVE INCOME was the real issue. No redundancy, no backup. No reserve. All of those college degrees with hundreds of letters after them and the leadership in America were clueless muppets, just like 911, just like Pearl Harbor. And now we have brain dead running the place.
A pattern emerged over time. Under 40 with no co-morbidity- you were pretty safe.
As usual, the youth will be paying the price for American Boomers. The youth wasn’t hospitalized, Medicare took the brunt of the hits.
Now boomer, breathing fresh air again, jacks up her house price and makes it impossible for the youth to purchase-then mocks them for living in mommy’s and daddy’s basement.
Never fail once to set a bad example..
Passive income=too lazy to actually work.
Then call others lazy……
And the reward for working is to pay a higher tax rate (earned income) vs being lazy (passive income).
Of course it’s that way-it was legislated by those who would love to go back to having slaves on the plantation.
Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy #Bitcoin investment is currently at a $1,000,000,000 unrealized loss.
MicroStrategy is now faced with a possible margin call..
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/bitcoin-plunge-spells-trouble-for-michael-saylors-microstrategy.html
Just so you know, it’s all leveraged money. Silvergate bank lent them money a Federal Reserve member bank…Same bank that bought the failed crypto DIEM from Zuckerberg. They are run by VCs that are all in on crypto..
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SI:NYSE
I would love to know what the Fed auditors think of their “Other Short Term Investments” on their balance sheet.
We are skipping over Web 4.0 and going right to Web 5.0
Jack Dorsey “promotions” folks..
https://twitter.com/jack
“Web5 is a Decentralized Web Platform that enables developers to leverage Decentralized Identifiers, Verifiable Credentials, and Decentralized Web Nodes to write Decentralized Web Apps, returning ownership and control over identity and data to individuals”
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1SaHGyY9TjPg4a0VNLCsfchoVG1yU3ffTDsPRcU99H1E/edit#slide=id.g11b904107df_0_1
Michael Saylor is just another example of a corrupt system that is hellbent on fixing rates and lending money for speculation.
BRT – My concern is contagion. Speculation with your money fine. Risk mine however, that should not be allowed. The real money is just getting traction with real banks. Silvergate is a pimple compared to the likes of Wall St Banks.
Scan the headlines for “Secured lending facility lent cash collateralized by Bitcoin”.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/04/28/goldman-sachs-makes-its-first-bitcoin-backed-loan-report/
Juice,
I know 4 ex coworkers who left trad IB world to join Silvergate…ruh roh. NYDIG is another
Hope you are trying to save whatever you can. Getting close to being able to buy easy money. When the time comes, get ready to buy ETH and high growth stocks.
Understand bear markets lower the risk and increase the odds of a big payout on said investment. No one has the balls to buy and are focused on selling. Take advantage and maybe you can join the ranks of the passive income class you hate.
Phoenix says:
June 14, 2022 at 8:25 am
Passive income=too lazy to actually work.
Then call others lazy……
Phoenix, be ready to take advantage or don’t cry later.
Wow. No real bounce on the open.
Everyone waiting for 2PM tomorrow.
WFH will be the ultimate bubble signal associated with this bubble. People just don’t realize it yet. In short time they will.
I think we’ll find that interest rates are inversely correlated with remote work. 100% correlated. High Rates = Layoffs = End of Remote work.
Musk could not have adopted his current WFH policies in the interest rate environment from 6 months ago.
Juice Box says:
June 14, 2022 at 6:18 am
Long weekends forever since WFH (work from the beach) became a thing.
https://nypost.com/2022/06/13/hamptons-parties-go-all-week-long-thanks-to-remote-work/
Chgo: Exactly, everyone waiting until the Fed announcement. Really nothing else to do at this point.
Jim,
I think they charge more for every unit you have over 3. Can’t remember how much it was, I have to look it up, but was like $150 or $250 dollars for them to come and shake me down.
“Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. ‘People Lost Their Ever-Lovin’ Minds.’
Murder rates didn’t soar only in cities during the pandemic; small-town sheriffs and prosecutors are overwhelmed with homicide cases”-wsj
https://apple.news/AWeR3EcLJToqZoca8PCRXBA
Well Matt Damon says fortune favors the brave, so I guess that’s all you need to know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twpEgYnc-jA
Who knew that telling the whole country to become shut-ins for over a year over a mildly dangerous virus (mostly for people with known risk factors), wrecking various careers, businesses, relationships, and changing health habits, deferring preventative health procedures, retarding education, and forcing people to spend more time with their phone apps, might have more negative consequences than positive ones?
Besides US homicides and car accidents rising, we can also potentially blame it for driving two dictators more nuts than they already were (Putin and Xi) and causing the Ukraine war, and possibly more.
Now that we are heading into a recession, expect more companies to dump commercial real estate, no need to pay for office space to get the work done.
3b
Careful..careful. You are doing well.
Yea, who needs a centralized location to run an efficient enterprise. It all can be done remotely out of people’s homes or from poolside resorts.
3b says:
June 14, 2022 at 10:07 am
Now that we are heading into a recession, expect more companies to dump commercial real estate, no need to pay for office space to get the work done.
“Today is a painful day for BlockFi but more so for employees who we have to part ways with.”
I’ll see you and raise you…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html
Thank you for saying more eloquently what I was trying to express yesterday. It is our RESPONSE to the virus that caused our issues, not the virus itself.
“Who knew that telling the whole country to become shut-ins for over a year over a mildly dangerous virus (mostly for people with known risk factors), wrecking various careers, businesses, relationships, and changing health habits, deferring preventative health procedures, retarding education, and forcing people to spend more time with their phone apps, might have more negative consequences than positive ones?”
Now that we are heading into a recession, expect more companies to dump commercial real estate, no need to pay for office space to get the work done.
Some of these corporate parks have miles long loops around them. What will they become? What will something like Connell Park in Berkeley Heights become? More housing, you say? Until we have 100 million people within the NYC metro area?
“Who knew that telling the whole country to become shut-ins for over a year over a mildly dangerous virus… might have more negative consequences than positive ones?”
Yeah, but do you believe in the science? That’s the most important part! Fauci and the democrats said so!!
“It is our RESPONSE to the virus that caused our issues, not the virus itself.”
And our response to gun control.
And our response to #metoo.
And our response to Russia.
And our response to Trump.
Just wait for our response to Biden…
Fast: Probably, what else will they do with it? It’s what they are doing in Montvale. And, in Oradell they tore an office building down and are building apartments there as well. Also, another apartment development in Oradell waiting for approval.
Bustander: Thanks for the reminder. Yes, I am!!
“Getting close to being able to buy easy money.”
I guess easy money is something we should aspire to?
Isn’t easy money the same thing everyone is complaining about? The gov handing out easy money?
This is the problem with giving single-issue “experts” vast government powers. They may or may not succeed even with their single issue, but they sure as heck don’t care about the costs and consequences on other issues.
The whole government “Czar” fad is unamerican in that it gives power to unelected bureaucrats to violate people’s individual rights.
Get ready for more “Green” Czars, abortion Czars, inflation Czars. As if the alphabet agencies weren’t already too much.
I guess the ultimate question is whether America is to follow the collectivist obedience to authority path like China, or stick with the ideals of the US political revolution that focuses on individual rights and liberty. Modern school systems are programming new generations to accept the former.
3b,
Where are all of these new apartment dwellers going to work?
Every day America is turning into China or Russia, the same places Americans brag that they are so much better than.
Why are we doing this to our youth?
LOL. Yeah, waiting for that response…
Funny someone mentioned Pearl Harbor and 9/11 above…total shitshow by those in power, “gee, the whole world is at war let’s dock our entire fleet in one location”.
The idiots missing the obvious are now lauded, their incompetency lost in the flag wrapping ‘honor’ of the damage they help cause.
On a more local scale right up there with parking a substantial part of a train fleet in a floodplain ahead of a major storm or sending infected patients into isolation homes full of the most vulnerable citizens during covid.
And yet you people long for the same ‘centrists, moderates, and middle’ that cause these issues while fearing the voices of those calling them out.
No One,
This government has been bought and paid for a long time ago.
IDK as I get older I just want to pass the torch and give the following generations a fighting chance to live a life as decent as mine has (the divorce the exception).
It’s immoral to not do this.
And no, I don’t need a church or God to tell me what is right or wrong. Seen plenty of it in my lifetime. And find plenty of the religious to be deceitful at best and repulsive at worst.
It amazes me how people so easily shrug off a million dead, and millions more hospitalized.
Phoenix: I do t know. WFH, , hospitals, stores? As for Russia and China, they are the enemy, more China in my view. We sold out our country to the Chinese by turning over almost our entire manuscript base to them. Our current President was part of this along with the all the other politicians from both parties. The powers that be ensured we would never have a threat by a 3rd party again.
Left: All right or all left is not going to work in my view. Centrist/ moderate is the only hope of actually getting anything positive accomplished.
OC1
Shrug off? I’m size 11. Feel free to put on a pair of mine and take a walk through one of my days.
I had a Covid patient 2 days ago. And 2 years ago. None of us “shrugged off” anything.
But don’t call me a hero. I despise that word. Save that for your police officers who stood outside while children were dying. Put their pictures in the paper for saving the dog in the hot car next to that “hero” term.
Professionals just do their jobs-no matter how crappy- and just get it done. My reward is doing a job right- that’s how I’m wired. And to work with others to make their days go well also.
Wanna see a hero- this is a hero.
https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/its-about-being-selfless-cta-train-rider-jumped-down-to-help-man-who-fell-onto-third-rail-and-got-shocked/
3b
If you sold out to them then how are they your enemy? It wasn’t your workers in America, it was your BUSINESSMEN.
The same type you elected the last time. And this time.
This country has no legs to stand on as it can no longer claim the moral high ground.
That is what made this place special. Now it’s just a cheap wh orr e.
Phoenix: You are preaching to the pretty much converted here. I have been saying this for years. The last President I voted for was Romney after falling for the hope and change of Obama, after 8 disastrous years of George Bush. DC is corrupt all of them, bought and paid for by special interests.
And Boomers life is never more valuable than the future of the youth.
That includes mine.
Holy Monday Morning quarterbacking!
There are infinite ways to look at our Covid response.
First, who was president when we decided to shut everything down?
Second, how many more people would have died if we did not stay home when the virus was, one, at it most dangerous, and two, before there were any known drugs to treat it. Not to mention, the massive shortage of PPE, respirators, etc. We pretty much lucked out in the Northeast as it didn’t peak during the winter. The seasonality factor actually was a huge benefit that we simply lucked out on based on geography.
Enormous numbers of people died early on. Without social separation that number could have and would have been infinitely larger. What kind of country are we living in where we don’t care about protecting the lives of our fellow citizens.
I know. I read it in a tweet this morning from populist superstar Lauren Boebert who chose to be a selfish prick to tweet out:
“There are only two genders.”
This followed by a headline that I read where populist presidential contender Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is considering using child protective services to investigate parents who bring their children to see drag performances.
What the hell is our country turning in to? I fear for the repercussions of our country when DC is in full control by the populists, which the current round of dumbocrats are making it a very possible reality.
I mean, if you think mandates for wearing masks or getting vaccines were an issue, what the fuck are you going to do if you were born gay, or transgendered? What the populists are tweeting is no different than Sharia Law. Telling women what they can’t do with their bodies, telling gays they can’t exist and using code words, such as Democratic Cities instead of just saying “niggerville,” as we praise KKK members as “good people.”
I honestly do not know what is sadder. That the populists find being selfish and indecent humans is a worthy means to an end or that so many of my fellow Americans actually support this rudeness and indecency?
My mother-in-laws life was significantly shortened by Covid. Had the response been not to do anything at all and let it run through the population to save the “greatest economy ever,” perhaps your mom or dad or grandparents would have died too. Heck of a policy we are espousing this morning.
It amazes me how people can shrug off millions of kids being miseducated, hundreds of millions of people having their lives thrown upside down for over a year.
And ultimately, the people who were vulnerable, lots of them still died anyway, because telling people to hide in their rooms and stay out of fresh air was totally unscientific. Because “experts” made tons of mistakes too.
I guess there’s some people who like the way China controls the people. The best way to control Covid deaths seems to be by state control of all media which might report deaths, and maybe to turn your whole country into an island where nearly nobody can get in or out. You’re a pawn with no freedom, but at least your 0.3% chance of dying of Covid went down to 0.1%! Or at least your chance of being reported of dying of Covid, which isn’t quite the same. Who cares about drug OD deaths rising, suicide deaths rising, driving fatalities rising, homicides rising, gambling (including crypto) addiction rising? Shrug it off as necessary sacrifices to prevent stuff that ultimately mostly happened anyway? The forever “flattening” curve which was justified for a couple of months, at most, until scientists could figure out who was really vulnerable, and who wasn’t.
Is this the new narrative NoOne?
Seriously?
20% haircut at the Blockchain shops? It’s all just “back office” support folks, right? LOL The rainmakers look pretty smart when it is middle of monsoon season with no end in sight. Now that we’re drying out, we’ll see that being a genius isn’t all that common.
You mean my virtual cartoon picture of a monkey with a machine gun and a war helmet is not worth six figures anymore? How could this be?
At the beginning of the pandemic, an epidemeologist said something that has always stuck with me:
“When dealing with a pandemic, every successful intervention looks like an over reaction in hindsight”.
The red-hot US housing market is about to stall and the risk of that boom turning to bust is rising, an economist says..
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/red-hot-us-housing-market-120807851.html
And I still think the tubby muppets are going to list all at once.
If you haven’t been following the covid death totals, NJ has dropped down to #7 in deaths/100,000.
The states that passed us mostly had their big death surges after vaccines were available, which is kind of sad.
Because “experts” made tons of mistakes too.
Well, every day, everyone I work with was doing everything they could do, risking their lives, avoiding their families, changing in the garage-hell, I almost lost custody- trying to save anyone who had this virus.
But we put a man on a pedestal who goes on media suggesting ingestion of bleach.
Just vote him back in again. Or Jim Carrey.
Or Bozo the clown. Don’t worry, those two prunes Pelosi and McConnell will come up with some great choices for you at the ballot.
They always do.
ChiFi:
3.41
Lib
Many died in nursing homes because America has become a business and has no family structure left.
Well, maybe it’s a good thing that Billy is stuck in his mommy’s basement thanks to fat Merry Muppet tm. Now when the next pandemic comes she won’t be in a nursing home.
Mary Muppet.
Sorry Eddie.
What kind of country are we living in where we don’t care about protecting the lives of our fellow citizens.
Especially Supreme Court justices who lean conservative.
“There are only two genders.”
How many are there? I’m not a biologist so I don’t know.
Libturd,
Not new, It’s what I’ve thought for 2 years.
It’s the basic application of Bastiat’s seen vs unseen analysis.
http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html
And I definitely think US statists envy the unrestricted power of the Chinese government. Handing more power over your life to the government is all for your own good, you selfish sinner.
Ron DeSantis is considering using child protective services to investigate parents who bring their children to see drag performances.
Because making mud pies, riding bikes and eating ice cream just doesn’t cut it any more.
Libturd,
It can lose all its value, but you can always cherish the incredible artistic value of a gun toting ape that some graphic designer created in a few minutes in her attempt to get rich by luring suckers to their financial doom. And so can everyone else enjoy that dumb little graphic, even if they didn’t stupidly spend thousands of dollars for the NFT version.
But by owning that ape NFT, you gain access to an exclusive online forum where other suckers gather to hype themselves up, or cry about, the value of their dumb little pictures.
Listen NoOne, I definitely want smaller government and less regulation. But I don’t see a connection between being an indecent asshole and restricting rights to those that a particular religion admonishes, as a means to obtain this goal.
ChFi,
3.45
“Because making mud pies, riding bikes and eating ice cream just doesn’t cut it any more.”
Maybe DeSantis can let us borrow some of the firehouses from the bravest which us taxpayers paid for and we can let our children play make believe civil rights protest denier whenever they see black people too? Or is there only one race?
Welcome to progressive, s0cialist California:
https://tinyurl.com/49pt8azt
While every individual death is an unspeakable tragedy for the family and friends of the person who passed, realistically, death is a part of life. Truly, it is so sad, and anyone can cry thinking about one individual, let alone trying to imagine the grief caused by one million deaths.
Still, yes, it is sensible to shrug at 1 million dead to a respiratory virus, because it’s unlikely anything could have saved many of those million. In context, every 3 million dead is 1% of the US population. I truly doubt that even 3 million people would have died if the government limited its intervention to providing some basic versions of its hospital ships, defense production of respirators, and simply public health messaging saying something sensible like “You need to make your own individual decisions. Ideally, stay home if you can. and otherwise minimize contact with other people. Wear a mask if you are going to have contact with others. Wash your hands.” Then, maybe the D’s shouldn’t have demonized people unwilling to vax and tried to use some empathy to try to make the anti-vax folks see the benefit of vaccination.
Almost, no matter what, one million would be dead from covid for three reasons:
(1) of the million dead, the overwhelming majory had low life expectancies in a world without covid. The overwhelming majority were frankly old;
(2) covid realistically killed them anyway, despite the ineffective and hapless government restrictions; and
(3) at the end of the day, history might prove that the US and US State governments killed way more than one million people globally by their overreaction to covid.
On point one, if anyone hasn’t done so, look up the stats on covid mortality. Very old people were statiscally wildly-overrepresented amongst the dead. CNN and other msm created a misunderstanding of the mortality risk by featuring stories of the 0.0001% of children or 20-somethings that passed from covid and never placing the unlikely nature of such deaths in context.
On point two, I just simply doubt that there were millions of people who would have passed from covid that avoided it due to the government-related shutdown polciies. Remember, small stores on main street were CLOSED while crowded as heck Walmart was OPEN. What difference could a policy like that make on transmission? Further, I saw with my own eyes that urban NJ parties were happening during the literal peak of covid fear (and no government police clamp down even though such private parties were illegal), while I couldn’t even get an OUTDOOR haircut for a while. My point is tranmission happened despite the government policy, while simultaneously legitimate businesses and other normal life was being disrupted and damaged. The pro of saving lives DIDNT happen, the con of disrupting commerce happened bigtime.
On point three – OD’s up, preventative healthcare was missed, etc. in the Western World. The supply chain problems and inflation might cause food-related unrest in the third world, so civil warrs may follow. In those civil wars, there is the potential for significant numbers, indeed for a million+ of people to die, including unspeakable numbers of children. Nevermind, the possibility that all the US Government economic voodoo might cause “The Big One” (all the irresponsible government money printing and spending might cause an unprecendented seismic and negative shift in the global economy, with something like a soft default of the US Government or a period of hyperinflation in the US dollar). One can imagine a lot of death following an analogue or worse of the Great Depression in the modern world.
Finally, on a political note, I simpyl believe strongly that there will not be many people defending the government covid lockdown and spending response soon, to the extent that anyone still is. The ballot box in 2021 in NJ and VA showed that the people are angry about it. Since November 2021, the people shoved a sock in Gov. Murphy’s mouth about covid. Before then, he wouldn’t go three sentences without saying covid. Going into 2022, the Dems need to run fast and hard away from their history of covid policies, while the R’s need to remind people which party was the “Shutdown” party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sglMO4-paHE
Any questions?
Amazon Engineer Sues for Work From Home Costs. Employees May Not Like it if He Wins
Like every other company, Amazon sent all employees who could work from home to work from home in 2020. But what they didn’t do was start paying for internet and electricity costs for their employees, according to a lawsuit filed by an Amazon engineer in California.
On the surface, it makes perfect sense. California law requires companies to pay all business expenses. Employees who work at home use more electricity and internet than they would if they came into the office. Therefore, the engineer has a case. At least, that’s why the judge didn’t throw it out.
Amazon argues that these expenses aren’t the company’s obligation since it wasn’t its choice to send people home; it was following the state orders to send everyone home. The law doesn’t seem to have an exception for emergencies.
My best bet? The Amazon engineer will win.
It amazes me how people can shrug off millions of kids being miseducated, hundreds of millions of people having their lives thrown upside down for over a year.
I was posting at the end of April of 2020 how bad this was going to be for education just missing those few months. I had no idea they planned an additional year of interruption. It’s been really really bad for anyone that wasn’t able to pick up the slack by filling in or hiring private tutors. Most kids are 1.5 years behind where we would have liked them to be. And the entire country is pretending like it’s no big deal.
And the entire country is pretending like it’s no big deal.
The media dictates the narrative which is to create a dumb, chubby and shiftless s0ciety.
“It amazes me how people so easily shrug off a million dead, and millions more hospitalized.”
The question is what is preventable. And at what cost.
Forget hospitalizations. They happen. For everything. Look at mortality. And that number does not go to zero. For anything.
If an immunosuppressive virus surfaces, 700,000 people will die. Two dozen people will die tonight in DWI accidents. Another 690,000 will die this year from heart disease. And, yes, if a novel coronavirus surfaces a million may die over a few years.
But…facts matter….939,000 of those deaths were in people aged 50 or older….from 2020-2022 only 69,000 of those deaths – the same amount we lose annually in a moderate flu season – were in people aged less than 50 years old.
Was shutting down the world with all the accompanying dislocation and costs that we still have not even come close to resolving the ‘right’ thing to do to for the other 208 million Americans under the age of 50?
69,000 of 208 million is 0.0003 of Americans aged under 50.
I’m not ‘shrugging’ anything off, nor am unempathetic. I’m a realist.
Yes, one million people died over a couple of years. That’s one third of one percent of the US population. And a large majority of them were toward the end of their lives either by age or health anyway. And it will happen again, someday, some time. And again after that.
All of the above – that exact analysis – is what I expect from my leaders as they assess the costs and benefits of how they approach any major challenge to our population.
I specifically do not expect the alternative action they undertook…running around shrieking like some upset little middle school girl.
The two thoughts are not inconsistent, in fact they are perfectly in synch.
The issue is not a novel virus that caused the deaths of mostly old and infirm citizens representing a very small fraction of the population….the issue is the entirely unmeasured, unthoughtful, and emotional RESPONSE to this challenge that is impacting for years the 208 million other young American never at risk from this virus.
Dear Americans under the age of 50: This government fucked you wildly in its response to covid. Big fat stinky middle finger screw you. Enjoy the inflation, crazy housing markets, and job dislocations over the course of these few years. Love, your centrist and empathetic political ruling class.
But Rand Paul, Tucker Carlson, and grass root Americans are the real threat to you. /s
“Everyone waiting for 2PM tomorrow.”
Shqipe: Agree. smells like a dad cat bounce building up. Whats the best way to play it this afternoon?
Don’t worry. They soon will be. Unless of course you are a white male.
“Centrist/ moderate is the only hope of actually getting anything positive accomplished.”
Disagree. The unholy alliance of left/right centrists is the core of our problems. Each side sells you out – to the other – for pocket change.
You need the left and the right to keep their moderate members in line. You need a situation where they can’t get 50+1 votes to whore you out without getting the left or right on board. (Note: I said left/right, not far left/far right).
I’ve said before I would have voted for Bernie had he been on the Dem ticket, and would never pull the lever for Romney. Both for that exact reason.
There’s a reason nearly a third of US voters registrations is ‘independent’.
Left: I will have to consider your points; they are interesting. I have always been an independent. I don’t think right now the Democrats or Republicans can be classified as moderates.
NYC Director,
Be very careful here. Even if Powell raises .75, the market might read it as a things are much worse than they appear. A week ago, the odds of a .75 point increase was 93% according to CME Group. If he goes 1 point, you are a dead man. If he keeps it at .5, it will be a short-lived bounce. So what are the odds of each?
“A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.”
“Holy Monday Morning quarterbacking!…how many more people would have died if we did not stay home when the virus was, one, at it most dangerous…Enormous numbers of people died early on. Without social separation that number could have and would have been infinitely larger.”
Nothing inconsistent here….unfounded counterfactual > ‘Monday morning quarterback’…?
And there is not Monday morning quarterbacking…many voices were out there calling out the ineffectual and downright idiotic government response in real time…many of whom were silenced.
Ii guess you’re also supportive that NYC just yesterday allowed 2-4 year olds to go to daycare unmasked…smh
“First, who was president when we decided to shut everything down?”
You consistently make this a Trump/Biden issue. I never have, and won’t. Not sure why you keep going there.
“Is this the new narrative NoOne? Seriously?”
It was the narrative all the time.
The Left just decided to shut down any debate whatsoever…who needs opposing views and analysis when you can just shut them down?
And you’re right, we are sooooo much better off in the Garden State regarding deaths since we shut down all municipal parks in Spring 2020…thank you Gov Murphy for saving so many untold lives!
Bunch of incompetent idiots….
“When dealing with a pandemic, every successful intervention looks like an over reaction in hindsight”.
So dumb unsupported platitudes are your thing?
Crushed,
Good post above. Only thing I would quibble with is your fourth political point. Plenty of damage happened under Republican control, nearly none of them had the balls to reject lockdowns in principle. There were a few exceptions early on. DeSantis gets credit as the major politician surveying the science the fastest and eliminating unnecessary restrictions the soonest. He also prioritized the shots by their real risks, to the oldest not giving them away to teachers first and liars second as NJ did. I know Libturd’s parents hate him but they seem to be the exception in Florida.
Alright this market better do something, or I need to go outside or something….can’t re-debate covid anymore.
I will end with recalling that when it became apparent that Murphy was going to lockdowns I bolted for five weeks to FL and TN, which were a breath of fresh air (literally, as I could go outside on their beaches and parks).
And I do remember from that time – go back and find it – that some of the Garden State crazies here were aflutter that I was ‘risking my life’ when I posted I was heading out to pick up some sushi at a takeout place in FL…
To each his own…you are free to live under the idiocy of your political class. But most certainly don’t expect me to, or to be compliant.
Left,
I tend to agree with you when it comes to looking at the value of situations. For example, the utter silliness of arming schools. Though I think you took a lot of liberties with this one after the fact. I will give you credit where credit is due and that is the Dems weaponizing Covid to their political advantage in 2021 and on. But you forget how little was known about Covid from March until July of 2000. It’s easy to look back now and say, “we did it all wrong.” It was a lot harder to make that call when hospitals were overloaded, PPE was in short supply and noone had a friggin’ clue how fatal this virus was. I think you also take liberties on what impact not separating might have had and ignore the fact that the novel mutation was the most dangerous. We also did not have vaccines so there is the impact they had as well in 2021, which was extremely significant. Quite honestly, no one knew how it would impact children in those first 3 or 4 months. But then there is your conclusion that Covid caused so much of the problems we are experiencing today? Again, I disagree. It is only partly to blame. Much of today’s problems are due to the longest bull market run on record combined with 14 years of government juice. Finally, look at this chart of the GDP over the last few years. After 2020, there was hardly a hit. And the majority of the hit were during those initial four months. It sure is convenient to blame everything on the Democrats handling of Covid, but the truth is that I don’t think Covid had nearly as large of an impact as say, the Trump Tax law changes as well as Biden’s Green energy policies on the current economy we are experiencing today.
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/gdp4q21_adv-chart-01.png
Looking back, yes, much of Biden’s covid policies were wrong. But the impact they had on society I don’t think are as grave as you make them.
As for school? My kid keeps acing his AP exams. He went remote nearly the entire time. Even when school returned. No tutors. No Kumon. I am not saying this is the case for all. But not everyone suffered.
And then there’s long Covid.
It is not as cut and clear as you make it out to be. I’m not so sure the initial lock down was the wrong strategy. I really don’t think it is as simple as you made it out to be.
Off to pick up the D. More later. Toodles.
Democratic cities has to do with race as far as identity politics would dictate. They but everything through race. I don’t scribe toit so I wouldn’t know. Otherwise it has to do with the leadership, which had been democrats got multiple generations, repeating the same failed policies.
Back when I went to school, there were kids who cut themselves. A lot of it was for attention. They were told it was wrong. There was no cutter pride month. My guess is there are far fewers cutters today. Since you typically free out of that pose, I guys the left never bothered to capture the votes. Of course there was no cutter equivalent to sex change operations and hormone blockers which are lifelong. Democrats have now elevated predation of kids to one of their core strategies.
Lawrence Yun, still pedaling the same message.
https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/im-the-chief-economist-for-the-national-association-of-realtors-here-are-6-things-to-know-about-the-housing-market-now-01654882986
Some buyers may want to consider a 5-year ARM
If there’s a possibility that a home buyer won’t be in the home they’re buying for more than 5 or so years, Yun says they should consider a 5-year ARM. “These ARMs carry lower interest rates than the standard 30-year mortgages,” says Yun. In fact, Bankrate data from the week ending June 6, reveals that the average rate for a 5-year ARM is just 3.90% compared to an average rate of 5.57% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.
Left: Market won’t do anything until tomorrow. Go out for a walk, it’s nice out.
Fab: Yep. He probably just recycled the old one.
Redfin and Compass both announce layoffs, 8 and 10 percent respectively. Too bid for the employees. I guess the demand for real estate is on the decline.
We knew very early on, from the data coming from Italy, that the average covid fatality was 81. 81!!!
The left used the pandemic as an excuse to shut down the economy and grab power. Then they used it to rig the election. If they were as interested in fact finding as they claim, they would want to know the origin of covid. That doesn’t interest them, go figure.
The best argument for the initial lockdown was that we couldn’t believe the early statistics China provided on the lethality of Covid. What if it was really 2% or 5%? And people hadn’t figured out the treatment. I’ve read debates about whether bad use of ventilators killed more people than it saved, btw. (And that government compensation payments really incentivized the use of ventilators beyond what was appropriate).
Then the “flatten the curve” arguments had some logic.
However, US government power is still restricted by the constitution, its powers are still limited, still directed to the protection of individual rights, not a leviathan forever justified by “emergency powers”.
Meanwhile, the CDC absolutely botched the development and regulation of covid tests, giving their incompetent selves a monopoly, which they couldn’t supply. That in itself was an important part of early Covid control failures in the US.
Then the government pushed every other human being as a threat to your survival, teeming with potential poison. Think that doesn’t stir up latent psychological derangement?
Then the government lying about the masks. This started under Trump btw. They knew nothing but N95/KN94 had a chance of doing much good, but they knew they barely had enough for healthcare workers. So they lied to people about how it was worth making stupid bandana masks, and let little kids make useless cloth masks, and let people wear their little cocktail napkin masks, well beyond the point they knew what worked and what didn’t. Masks became obedience badges. And then after the N95/KN94 masks became available again, did these officials tell everyone the truth about masks? Admit that they had lied about the mask science and fooling you into thinking your chin diaper did any good? Not really.
Fortunately, many American rebel against fallible authorities that aren’t made accountable for their mistakes.
3b, yeah, heading out now for a walk around the neighborhood. Haven’t had such a narrow day in a while, literally just dollars left and right of breakeven. Comical, actually.
See the Wyden tax proposals just crossing? Yet another blunt force trauma to the single most needed industry right now. Because aggressive taxation is the way to entice companies to make more business investment….
“72 days Pumpkin-free!”
This is awesome:
Meltdowns Have Brought Progressive Advocacy Groups to a Standstill at a Critical Moment in World History
“…it has become nearly all-consuming for some organizations, spreading beyond subcultures of the left and into major liberal institutions. “My last nine months, I was spending 90 to 95 percent of my time on internal strife. Whereas [before] that would have been 25-30 percent tops,” the former executive director said. He added that the same portion of his deputies’ time was similarly spent on internal reckonings.”
theintercept.com/2022/06/13/progressive-organizing-infighting-callout-culture/
Not discussed, but BLM didn’t let that shit happen. Gimme dat monay, raciss! Then the founders took the money and ran. BLM! Self-service reparations, honky! You can put my new mansion in your “corporate giving” statement.
Headcount reductions… more companies to announce:
Redfin Corporation
Compass
Coinbase Global, Inc.
Stitch Fix, Inc.
Intel Corporation
Bird Global
Nvidia
Microsoft
Lyft
Wayfair
Uber
Carvana
Twitter
Meta
Apple
Robinhood
DoorDash
Peloton
This is just the beginning.
of the economic hurricane…….
that will end life on planet earth…
“This is just the beginning.”
Fed Fund futures show Fed tightening through May 2023…and that’s without accounting for QT.
Anyone have a view if the disarray in the MBS market combined with the Fed balance sheet there is something we ought to be paying more attention to?
I think we broke through….. we go lower, except the Fed decision trumps everything. I assumed everything would stay in place until tomorrow, but obviously there is embedded selling pressure. Note: dubious value and just for 22 hours more….
348.3
stunning
By that I mean what Jamie Dimon was alluding to Quantitative Tightening of the man behind the curtain.
8.4 Trillion on the balance sheet about to start shrinking as they taper MBS purchases and Treasuries. Then there is that massive pile of cash with no home and left with nowhere else to put it parked a record of more than $2.2 trillion overnight at the US Federal Reserve in the Reverse Repo Operations and $4.5 trillion sitting in money market funds.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hub
I just saying that these examples are nothing…. how about 50%-70% staff reduction?
……. how about cease operations and everyone out of a job?
leftwing says:
June 14, 2022 at 10:33 am
“Today is a painful day for BlockFi but more so for employees who we have to part ways with.”
I’ll see you and raise you…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html
Daughter had her middle school evacuated today on a credible threat…..
“I think we broke through…..”
Shit is all over the place…10Y breaks 350 and indices hit daily lows and I go green, on the back of oil imploding since 10am while VIX contracts…got a capital markets textbook that explains that one for me?
Gonna be a fun afternoon tomorrow…and I scheduled an appointment weeks ago at exactly 2p lol
ChiFi,
It is the REAL fear of runaway inflation. I’ve been bitchin’ for the last 12 months about it. Probably more. Companies are racing prices to pay the higher wages necessary to maintain their staff. If FED can’t slow the inflation down quickly, the damage from layoffs (and having to pay all of that unemployment) will not help a treasury that is trying to reduce what’s on it’s books.
The real truth is, I expected this inflation to happen way sooner. I am not surprised it’s happening now at all. It was a hell of a bull run. Now, I set myself up for retirement on the comeback double. :P
“8.4 Trillion on the balance sheet about to start shrinking as they taper MBS purchases and Treasuries.”
Credible market guy today, can’t recall which, had the best quote….”we all know how hard it is to unwind concentrated, large positions in an orderly way. Jay Pow is about to find out…”
Left,
Stumbled across this in the am. Great read on mtg and economy, link for entire article but first couple paragraphs below.
https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news
During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand out. Today makes five. (There have been many more good days, but even the Fairy Godmother has her limits.)
Mortgages are covered poorly in financial press, as stocks and such are much more entertaining. Today’s events still unfolding will take days for good coverage. Freddie’s weekly survey will not discover today until next Thursday. But the MBS market is real-time, not like old, sleepy S&L days.
The CPI news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond market’s view of Fed trajectory, and the weakest sector broke. In bond jargon, MBS went “no-bid.” No buyers for MBS. Then a few posted prices beyond borrower demand, not wanting to buy except at penalty prices. Overnight the retail consequence has been a leap from roughly 5.50% to 6.00% for low-fee 30-fixed loans.
The physics of collisions… the second one does the harm. When your car hits a telephone pole, no problem. Then, after a slight lag, trouble comes when you hit the inside of your car. Same thing in football: helmet on helmet is all-okay… until your brain hits the inside of your skull.
Even aside from any unwind, you literally just took out of the T market the single largest buyer by far…that’s a big missing bid that has been there forever.
Chi – “how about cease operations”
Oldie but a goodie.. From Dot Com 1.0 layoffs days pink-slip-panic game.. Got to click continue to enjoy..
https://www.flashgamesplayer.com/free/pink-slip-panic/play.html
Nomad, TY. exactly what I was looking for…saw some MBS disarray and as author says nobody noticing….
Lib: This has been a decade in the making. Last couple of years sped it up.
Too bad my wife’s siblings delayed with putting my mother in laws house on the market. Missed the top. Stupid and with an attitude is a dangerous combination!
“I just saying that these examples are nothing…. how about 50%-70% staff reduction?……. how about cease operations and everyone out of a job?”
Hahaha, yeah, nice to have some grey hairs in this industry…how about after the capital dries up, after the initial round of layoffs, after the 50-70% reduction, after the cessation of operations then…the exchanges they traded on actually goes ‘poof!’.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-stock-exchange-closes-neuer-markt/a-644849
1:51 re “July 2020” . . .
The Attilis Gym guys were arrested in July 2020. On August 1, 2020, in one of their media stunts, they kicked down the plywood barring their door shut.
Governor Murphy and his goons issued hundreds of thousands in fines for covid violations during the late summer of 2020.
CDC data was getting issued on mortality by age relatively early on in the pandemic. The data quickly supported the lessons from Italy – Covid was disproportionally fatal for old people.
“The left used the pandemic as an excuse to shut down the economy and grab power. Then they used it to rig the election.”
Hah..the plan was executed perfectly. Ds had virus made in Chinese lab, infected millions then got the Orange dingus to shut down ‘greatest economy in history of mankind’ . He then selected secret D operative, Fauci , as COVID task lead and using ‘big brain’, he told everyone a cure was drinking bleach. We got the R state legislatures to change voting procedures in the 4 key states well in advance as part of the grand scheme. The cover-up was so good that even “independent’ AZ R recount produced more votes for Biden. One…term…loser..
I’ve been thinking about this an awful lot lately. And I don’t share this to pat myself on my back. But I am really beginning to doubt the mantra of “don’t time the market.”
What’s crazy is that I am active in two investment clubs where we never time the markets. Our strategies are the same in both clubs. That is to find companies to invest in that have a long track record of consistent earnings and sales that are currently trading at a lower relative value than they have historically. Once we find such a company, we evaluate it’s management, it’s return on equity and it’s use of debt. Then we look at the risk-to-reward ratio, dividend yield and finally evaluate the company versus it’s competition within it’s sector. This tried and true method still works. In most cases we will beat the benchmarks we are tracking by about 1 percent on average. Of course, this won’t make you rich. But when you combine this with not having to pay for an advisor, over time, it will really help your returns. It also provides for a free financial education as we often study other financial topics. None of us have any formal training either. It is a very low risk method to an 8-12% annual return.
Now in my personal portfolio, I behave very differently. I generally invest in index ETFs. At most, I’ll have 20% of my portfolio in individual stocks (and they are usually the ones I expect to do the best among the stocks that we discovered in my investment clubs) and the rest in low cost, no-commission, index ETFs. This has worked quite well for me and like in my investment clubs, I tend to outperform the indexes by 1 or 2% annually. I tend to do slightly better in my personal portfolio than I do in my investment club holdings.
But looking back over my last 30 years of investing, the vast majority of my outperformance has actually come from timing the markets. I am extremely disciplined and I have only tried it four times. I absolutely nailed the tech bubble, which gave me much of the 20% down payment for the multi (plus some wedding gift cash).
The second time was during the fiscal crisis and I owe a lot of it to Grim and Clotpoll, who gave me the balls to short real estate which juiced my return on the way down a bit too, which is something I didn’t sleep easy doing. I missed the top by about 10% (moved out late), but absolutely nailed the bottom. This gave me the down payment for the Glen Ridge home. I certainly had to little equity in the Multi at this point.
The third time I tried to time the market was costly. I thought the Trump drop in late 2018 was what we are experiencing now. I pulled out about 10% past the peak, watched the markets dip another 10% but then it quickly rebounded all the way back and then some. I scaled back in too slowly and learned a valuable lesson. That is, the FED wouldn’t stop QE even when it really should of and really seemed to want to (but Trump and Wall St. twisted Powell’s arm). This meant the market was really sick, though the economy didn’t appear to be on the surface. I figured it would only be a matter of time before the debt caught up and the façade of the worlds greatest economy ever would wear off. Fortunately, the damage was minimal as I lost about 5% of my portfolio, but my opportunity cost was closer to 20% as I missed way too much of the rebound. I heard the voices of JJ in my head whispering, “Don’t fight the FED.”
The 4th time is now. I absolutely nailed the top. Pulled out 70% of my holdings across the board back in November. Remember, the last three years I was 100% large cap growth across the board to monstrous returns. These were my best ever, non-market timed returns. It made it a lot easier to risk being wrong if I moved to early. But that was not the case. On the way down, I put back in 10% during that one face ripper (which I really shouldn’t have, but my TA was telling me otherwise). That’s when I told Grim to invest his kids found money. The market then dropped again and I bailed back out on that first 10% based on macro events and the feeling that it was a dead cat bounce. That move cost me 1%. Since then, the market has dropped another 10% or so. So, so far, I have saved myself from around 25% in losses in 70% of my portfolio. Overall, I am down around 8% from the peak across the board (not counting my real estate holdings). As you all know, I am beginning to scale back in here. Put back in 10% at the close yesterday. I am so far ahead of the non-market timers that I can’t get greedy here, even though I really expect the market to tank another 20 to 40 percent from here. The problem is, you can’t fight the Fed and it’s harder to find the bottom than the top.
So getting back to the foolishness of market timing, it seems so easy to me. I question confirmation bias all of the time. Did I get lucky these four times. Or do I simply have the discipline, patience and experience necessary to keep making this work? I liken this to the same ability I have in the casino, where I will only play when I am in the position of advantage. And yes, sometimes I lose and sometimes I win. Though, most times I break even, but I get to keep the comps and benefits. As a matter of fact, I am taking my older son on college tours in Colorado and California completely on casino comps. Many meals, all flights and all hotels will be covered by casino comps I earned in the past year. Heck, MGM owes me $2,500, the most comp I’ve ever built up. But the point I am trying to make here is that probably less than 1 in 200 people have the discipline to only gamble when they have the advantage. I would bet that probably a lot less have the discipline necessary to time the market. There’s an awful lot of noise you need to zone out and it requires an awful lot of market experience to know when the top is close to being in place. And more than anything, you must be willing to bail and quickly when you are wrong. That’s probably the hardest lesson of them all. People do no like to admit when they are wrong. When I’m playing video poker and I’m down $1,000 which is my daily limit, I know I am not likely to win back that $1,000 the next day. Have I? Sure. But nine out of ten times I’m going to come home a loser when I’m in that situation. There’s nothing I can do to change it. Same with stock losses. Take the loss and move on. At least in the market, I can write off my losses against my gains in taxable accounts.
So what do you all think? Has it been luck? It just seems to easy to not be. I mean, it’s mostly a case of not looking a gift horse in the mouth. When everyone you know is using Robin Hood and making 30% a year, something is always going to break. When the house I purchased in 2011 for $417K is now worth $900K in 2022, something is always going to break. Especially when mortgage rates can’t find a landing to rest on. When people tell you it’s different this time, something is going to break. And you need not nail the tops and bottoms. You can scale in and out to hedge your bet. So what gives? Honest question. Again, not trying to pat myself on the back.
And for what it’s worth. About once every decade I find an IPO that I know is going to murder it. But it’s really only that frequent. You have to be that careful and disciplined.
Come on Crushed. That Atilla Gym guy was all about the attention. It probably quadrupled his business. He knew as much about science as I know about molecular biology. As for the age thing, yes we knew it mainly impacted old people, but enough younger and fatter people were being affected that it made sense to me (at least) to play the ounce of prevention game rather than risk what could have been much worse. Not defending the Democrats here. The establishment Ds are as bad as the Populist Rs. Maybe even worse these days. But both have sucked some serious donkey cock in the past 8 years.
My Dumpy supporting Bro-in-law ended up in hospital ER twice with his COVID. Guy in great shape at 48, no beer belly and pretty jacked. Both he and wife got it and she thought they might die at one point. I don’t need to know more about it. Idiotic stats can dismiss impact but it was not about just deaths.
Lib,
I am glad I did what you are not supposed and timed the market. The way I look at it; sure luck is always a part of it, but we obsessively analyze the market by reading so much. You don’t pull out of the market 100% because of luck, it’s because of conviction. Ark was my canary in the coal mine. At the same time, coming to this blog and listening to your posts about your opinion on the market made my conviction strong enough to take that dive. I was shaking taking that dive, but holy chit, am I grateful.
I basically don’t even have to save money anymore for retirement because of this one move. Pretty much nailed the coffin shut on future millions from compounding.
Is timing the market a move for the masses….hell no. But people that put enough time reading so many opinions on the market can. That’s a lot of time spent reading and thinking. So nothing is free, everything has a cost. Glad this one paid off.
So…no one is going to buy or sell a house all summer? 30 year is way too expensive already for anyone to make a move.
Housing runs the economy. I don’t see how a recession is avoidable. You know how many people are going to lose their jobs as housing sales come to a crawl? From construction to real estate agents, people are going to be in pain.
Good thing demographics is driving it, rates don’t matter and we have 5 more years of housing bull market.
Bystander,
Understand that if they weren’t trying to kill the housing market, this thing would be blasting. The minute they get inflation under control and reverse liquidity, get ready. This housing run is only on pause. If you can get a lower price on a desirable home right now, do it. Won’t regret it. Problem is, going to be very hard to find a desirable home that is for sale.
It’s begun
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10916461/Property-prices-fallen-10-nation-faces-Bidenflation.html
My bro. Today.
“Put ac in for banker today he just lost his job big position they cutting people already”
“He made bank 40 million last 2 years.”
“Giving him 39 weeks severance see ya”
Bystander: Housing party is over. 20 percent increase in a year?? Bubble mania, plain and simple. Asking prices already being cut in my town ; wait until more inventory hits the market. Housing shortage myth indeed.
Understand who will take the hit. It’s the places that went up so fast. North jersey, save for the hottest locations that went up too fast, is safe. This is probably the new low.
In two years it will be ripping up again into the mania phase of this real estate boom. Mark my words. This real estate run has only been stopped by the FED. The demand is still lurking beneath waiting for the next cycle by the FED.
Hold my beer says:
June 14, 2022 at 6:40 pm
It’s begun
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10916461/Property-prices-fallen-10-nation-faces-Bidenflation.html
And I’ll maybe even take my own advice….sell real estate after the next big run. The demographics says no support for current pricing for a long time. There’s not another big group coming to compete and drive up pricing. Making real estate a big risk.
Wild cards. People living longer and people wanting to own multiple housing. Investors appetite for passive income.
Mexico City. June, 2022.
If you’re not worried, you’re not paying attention.
https://twitter.com/eperea/status/1536384707717263361?s=21&t=_FaNcWQ66rVPyKlAH0KU0A
Blumpy,
Here is my advice. If a contractor rings bell and tell you what a nice house you have, he may have a gun. Double yellow line houses on quick getaway paths will be dangerous areas for roaming bandits. While we are all counting beans, the lower class will get desperate and more violent. Biden will not be able to pass any more stimulus with Manchin blocking it all. No more funny money and game is over..wages must now support this and companies are hardly generous.
My prediction – in a surprise move, Oz Powell announces immediate increase in MBS purchases and a rate cut by 50 points. Afterall, the poor bankers had a bad month. We can’t experience any pain..except if you are not in the debt shuffling profession.
By,
There will be pain. There will also be unbelievable opportunities. This stock and crypto bust is going to change my life with life changing opportunities. Just glad im in the privileged position to take advantage.
Go buy yourself $500 dollars worth of dna and ETH when they bottom, or even do it now if you have no time for games. Going to make good money off it. Use that to jumpstart a passive income position that will allow you to retire in peace.
Boom, you get it.
But understand that is not coming before they lower inflation to at least 4%.
Bystander says:
June 14, 2022 at 7:31 pm
My prediction – in a surprise move, Oz Powell announces immediate increase in MBS purchases and a rate cut by 50 points. Afterall, the poor bankers had a bad month. We can’t experience any pain..except if you are not in the debt shuffling profession.
500? Why not 500k if so sure, Dufus?
Wow, did not know this. Good luck abnb.
“So it seems people can squat in AirBnBs. I’m sending this out into the universe.”
“they totally can legally. The law does not protect airbnb hosts and neither does airbnb….as you know.”
I don’t know how money you have. Just trying to help. Firm believer in karma.
I’m pretty much all in with nerds from DNA trying to change our world. They hit, insane earnings potential.
Bystander says:
June 14, 2022 at 7:41 pm
500? Why not 500k if so sure, Dufus?
I don’t see how you don’t make 10 times your money on either investment. DNA upside is limitless. Understand they are in the business of making anything. Once they figure out how to scale it, game over. Any rare biological resource will be made synthetically by DNA. Only a matter of time. They are the app store of synthetic biological products.
This tightening liquidity is a moat for DNA from their competition. Thank god they took full advantage of the cheap money and safe guarded it. 1.5billion safety net. Bayer contract that pays for running costs over the next couple years. DNA peeps, your welcome, from the village idiot.
For 3b…evidence going in my direction, bud.
The @KastleSystems data is on Bloomberg — New York hit a new high this week…at 41%:
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1536840305219076098?s=21&t=_FaNcWQ66rVPyKlAH0KU0A
F’kers scared to lose their job…lmao.
“Big pop this week in nyc and beyond. The city definitely has a buzz about it again”
Understand low rates allowed WFH, 3b. You realize that soon.
Comical that an employee dictates that “i want to work from home” and you think that is normal. It’s a reflection of a labor market bubble of epic proportions.
They will never let the labor market get this hot again.
Fingers crossed my wife lands that remote government job w/silly bennies. She’ll be joining our friends from Creskill, myself and armies of folks who have been distributed and remote for quite some time.
Boomer,
Remote govt jobs, my god, what can go wrong? Remote is the devil. Everyone is for it till govt starts going remote.
Aussie consumer confidence is getting smashed into oblivion, lowest reading (ex-pandemic) in 31 years.
https://twitter.com/avidcommentator/status/1536857236219174912?s=21&t=nhJm_omOUq5UjlUT5brzXg
“Idiotic stats can dismiss impact but it was not about just deaths.”
And you do what for a living? Something, something technical? Riiigght…
“As for the age thing, yes we knew it mainly impacted old people, but enough younger and fatter people were being affected…”
For the 29 months from 1/1/20 through 5/29/22 there were 3,015 deaths among Americans aged under 30 years.
There are 125.9 million Americans aged under 30 years.
That means 0.00002 of people under age 30 succumbed to covid.
To put that in perspective, more than 4x that amount in that age cohort commit suicide annually. 8x that amount of infants die in the first 30 days of life.
Shall we have national lockdowns because of this suicide rate? Or, in keeping with covid practices, maybe just monitor everyone under 30 by Zoom 24/7? If we can spend trillions on covid can we not spend a fraction of that on 24/7 nursing care for those infants in their first month of life to save them? If not, you are one cold hearted bastard. Or hypocrite.
Oh, and for the ‘fat kids’ under 30?…..93 deaths…..
buy, hey, these are just idiotic stats…what do they matter against the self-inflicted horror show backdrop 300 million plus Americans have lived for the prior two years and will endure for another two?
I do have one serious request though…just please don’t code any of my backend brokerage functions with that attitude….
left,
You can call it BS but there are plenty of people who had lasting impacts from COVID. At the peak, you wanted no part of it bc you simply had no idea what would happen. Looking back now and claiming it was irrational shutdown based on death stats is fool’s work. Perhaps it was but you don’t know that until you come out other side. Yes, the misinformation was insane but that is every health scare. I remember AIDS and they would even give infected kid a hug because of fear and misinformation. Who talks about AIDS anymore? Nobody.
“You can call it BS but there are plenty of people who had lasting impacts from COVID.”
Stats. Hard data…
“Looking back now and claiming it was irrational shutdown based on death stats is fool’s work.”
Not true. Many people emphatically said so real time. In here, even. The data was public and easily analyzed.
“Yes, the misinformation was insane but that is every health scare. I remember AIDS and they would even give infected kid a hug because of fear and misinformation.”
And that SUPPORTS the wild over reaction to covid? Wouldn’t anyone with an ounce of rational thinking learn from their errors instead?
left, even worse than the lack of deaths was the number of excess deaths in that age cohort because of the lockdown. So yeah maybe great grandma was saved by the lockdown but a bunch of people in the prime of their lives died because of the lockdown.
Bystander, maybe when it first started yes but they just dragged this out. Sure at the beginning we didn’t know if it was ebola or the flu. By the summer we knew and yet we still were dealing with lockdowns, restrictions, kids home from school, and many people knew this didn’t make sense. They totally used this to get universal mail-in ballots in place which works to democrats advantage even if they did not cheat.