From CNBC:
Fed expected to hike rates by three-quarters of a point again, but its forecast may matter most
It’s not what the Federal Reserve does, but what it says it could do in the future that will be most crucial when the central bank ends its two-day meeting Wednesday.
The Fed is expected to fire off another three-quarter point rate hike — its third in a row. It will also release quarterly forecasts for inflation, the economy, and the future path of interest rates Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
The Fed’s projections are always important, but this time they are even more so because investors have been trying to game how high it will raise interest ratesand how much officials expect their actions could affect the economy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET, and he is expected to emphasize the central bank will do what it takes to fight inflation and it is unlikely to reverse its rate hikes anytime soon.
Foist
Putin speaks:
“A desperate Vladimir Putin (left) today issued a chilling nuclear threat to the West, hatching a plan to annex occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia and vowing to use ‘all means’ to defend them. He then added: ‘If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and in protecting our people we will certainly use all means available to us – and I’m not bluffing.”
Partial Mobilization.
Following Putin’s address on Wednesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 300,000 Russians would be called up as part of the mobilization.
I wonder what a nuke to NYC would do to the stock market and N.J. real estate prices.
Q-Tip just might provide the answer.
“Caudacity”
Every day there is a new word in America. Well, it’s new to me.
Are there enough retirees and prisoners to support the 300k mobilization? Or are they going to start rounding up 16 year olds too?
Afghanistan 2.0, in every sense.
The rich get richer.. From the Hill:
‘Ultra high net worth’ individuals with $50M or more spike to record high: report
A new report from Credit Suisse has found that individuals with assets worth more than $50 million, referred to as “ultra high net worth” (UHNW) individuals, spiked to a record high last year.
Credit Suisse’s Global Wealth Report, published on Tuesday, found that the number of UHNW individuals globally grew by 46,000 in 2021 to a total of 218,200.
As low-to-middle income families struggled to cope with the recent soaring food and energy prices, many ultra-rich individuals benefitted from the rise in housing prices and thriving stock market.
…
Forty-six thousand UHNW individuals also saw their wealth double by 50 percent within the two-year period.
“This is 46,000 more than the 218,200 recorded at the end of 2020, which in turn was 43,400 higher than in 2019. These increases are more than double the increases recorded in any other year this century,” the report said. “Taken together, it means that the number of adults with wealth above USD 50 million expanded by more than 50% during a two-year period.”
…
This comes as the number of U.S.-based millionaires individuals increased by 2.5 million last year, bringing the total number in the country to 62.5 million. The U.S. currently holds the largest number of millionaires in the world.
Is it just me, or does anyone else think the 218k number is an underestimation?
Phoenix -No need for nukes, it’s a war of attrition, and frankly good for the Russian economy just look at the strength of the Ruble. We have superior weapons and firepower, but do we have enough soldiers fighting on the side of Ukraine? For example 2.7 Million American men and women served alongside the 400,000 South Vietnamese army in Vietnam and we still lost.
Have to wonder what kind of deal (besides oil and gas) Putin cut with Xi last week, there is now high demand for the Yuan in Russia these days do to sanctions, and their overall trade has increased something like 30% this year due to sanctions (they are not settling in dollars). I would not be surprised if we do not start seeing Chinese made arms showing up on the battlefield, as well as spare parts for their equipment.
I read that Russia will be calling up people who have already served in the military in Russia, as opposed to untrained people. Those reserves mobilized now would be a bunch of old obese alcoholic smokers mostly. They are going to have to dig deeper and than the latest “partial mobilization” announcement it will expand further in another nine months. This war may not be over for a long shot. Vietnam ran from 1954–75. This war technically started in 2014 so it is now 8 years running and could run another 10 years longer.
BTW – Ukraine’s army is filled with old men too. They had about 200,000 active military personnel (125,000 ground troops) when the invasion began on 24 February. Estimates now say they have conscripted about 500,000 more out of an estimated available population of 11 million men age men aged between 18 and 60, so somewhere around 600,000 now taking into account 100,000 casualties to date. (Real estimate unknown).
Look I hate to say it but it is only going to get worse if the Russians send that many more troops. The cold season in Ukraine begins in the third week of November when it drops below freezing. They will all have to dig in for the winter.
If Russia can’t provide basic equipment and supplies to the current crew in Ukraine, how are they going to handle 300,000 more? And how unpopular is the war in Russia? When do the riots start? 100k deaths? 200k?
Maybe Biden should not have been on 60 minutes telling Purim not to use nukes. But that’s Joe.
Oil prices up with Russia s partial mobilization. Dr Doom ( Roubini) says it’s going to be a long ugly recession with stocks dropping 40 percent.
Apparently as well a lot of tension in various areas of China with lockdowns continuing and real estate crashing , people not paying their mortgages. Of course the Chinese government can just order the troops in and kill civilians.
Once Russia officially annex’s those areas of Ukraine, they have conquered, they will never give them back, and that includes Crimea. Any kind of peace deal will be much more difficult in the future.
Beer- re:” how unpopular is the war in Russia”. They don’t really know. The Russians have tight control of the media and internet there. Putin said today there was only 6,000 deaths..
Could be shades of Vietnam for them, over 2 million in the US were drafted into Vietnam (because we were losing) and when there were war protests here “Flower Power” with Abby Hoffman etc but it did not stop the war. Remember there were also violent protests too the Weather Underground etc which included trying to overturn the US Government by bombing the United States Capitol bombing.
It could be many years before the Russian people even attempt a revolt.
Russians are revolting. They’ve always been a nation of assholes.
Someone (CIA) simply needs to take Putin out. Simple.
Like Afghanistan, the West seems content in furthering a proxy war with Russia. From the global geopolitical perspective, why not simply watch Russia continue to burn through their resources, weaponry, and soldiers? Every day that goes by, they are another day weaker. We may we well past winners and losers here, and into it being a calculated trade – capitulating the destruction of Ukraine in trade for the destruction of communist Russia.
My great grandfather came from Russian in 1900 through Ellis Island after 3 conscriptions in the Tzar’s army. He hated the place with a passion.
Russians are revolting.
My great grandfather came from Russia.
So, if your great grandfather came from Russia, and Russians are revolting, what does that make your great grandfather?
See, this is why you don’t lump everyone in a country together as one.
From the global geopolitical perspective, why not simply watch Russia continue to burn through their resources, weaponry, and soldiers?
Why do that when politicians can funnel tens of billions to Ukraine and wheel a large portion of it out the backdoor to their bagmen?
He was a hard-ass. I stand by my comment.
I don’t actually seek approval. I speak my mind.
Which I know reeeeally bothers you.
Great grandfather was American by the way.
He “left” the life of forced conscription for America
and was much happier / healthier as a result.
Russia has sucked for centuries. I’d love to see them burn.
I speak my mind.
Which I know reeeeally bothers you.
No you don’t know.
I speak my mind as well. It’s a quality I admire in someone vs someone that is slimy and deceitful.
Once Russia officially annex’s those areas of Ukraine, they have conquered, they will never give them back, and that includes Crimea. Any kind of peace deal will be much more difficult in the future.
Ukraine has been contested territory for 1000 years.
Grim correction.
Europe has been a contested territory for 2000 years.
Fair enough, I should have said Ukraine has spent more of the last 1000 years as contested territory than as an independent entity.
Ruh Roh
Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar said Monday that his office will launch an investigation into who was behind the recruitment of nearly 50 migrants in San Antonio to be flown on a charter plane to Florida and Massachusetts.
Salazar said the migrants were “lured” Wednesday from a North Side migrant resource center on San Pedro Avenue under false pretenses of work by someone who was paid a “bird-dog” fee.
The migrants were allegedly told of jobs and housing if they agreed to board the plane, Salazar said.
“Somebody preyed upon these people,” Salazar said at a Monday afternoon news conference.
Salazar said that all people in the United States, regardless of immigration status, have rights that he believes were potentially violated.
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2022/09/19/bexar-sheriff-to-investigate-migrants-lured-into-flight-from-san-antonio-to-florida-marthas-vineyard/
The EU is powerful enough to defend itself. 447.7 million inhabitants. European Union’s combined active military forces total 1.5 million. 27 member states, and yet there is no unified EU army…
Why would they need one when the have the USA to spend it’s blood and treasure.
I mean given the size of the EU this is pitiful, the amount of Military, Humanitarian
Financial aid given by EU countries as compared to the United States.
Here is a chart.
https://app.23degrees.io/view/tAuBi41LxvWwKZex-bar-stacked-horizontal-figure-2_csv_final
Grim: True, but once annexed it could be decades if ever before it reverts back to Ukraine. When the Russians invaded South Ossetia and took it from the Georgians they did not annex it, same with Abkhazia.
California was chock full of Mexicans- back when it was called Mexico.
That’s what Americans forget, that a lot of Mexicans never crossed the border.
The border crossed them.
Yep.
BTW – If the Russians are going to protest the time will be now. The draft aka mobilization letters already went out in Russia. There are now copies posted on the internet. They are being told to report tomorrow morning for service in St Petersburg for example. The Russian Duma aka Parliament changed all the laws to if you don’t show up it’s a labor camp aka gulag for you, amongst other changes to tighten control for desertion and even surrender.
https://news.yahoo.com/russias-state-duma-introduces-concepts-110049190.html
Israel also has land they won in wars that if they “gave back” they’d be at an existential disadvantage. When your neighbor is out to destroy you, you do not give them the real estate to finish the job.
The WSJ yesterday had a great long story with photos about the volunteers who helped save Kiev from the early Russian invasion. A real estate developer who came up with the idea to break a dam that would make it impossible for the Russians to cross a river. The IT guy who figured out how to 3d print a device to attach to cheap drones enabling them to drop grenades into tanks. The former woman journalist who took out a tank with a rocket. The people who came up with communications methods.
Also, after 9/11, my intention was to always live in a home that was an adequate distance outside Manhattan’s nuclear blast radius.
This tool will help you consider the possibilities:
http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
I used the Chinese Dong Feng-4 ICBM for my estimate.
Mobilizing for WW3 is tricky. I somehow doubt it will be a land war fought by infantry.
NoOne ….depending on the wind 3300 kiloton blast,
The fallout look devastating for LA all the way to Bakersfield or Oxnard or Palmdale.
Say buh bye.
re: Biden and Nukes. There is a red line we have probably “diplomatically” agreed to via back channels via the French, Germans and Turks who are all communicating directly with Moscow. If we give Ukraine ATACMS missiles that line will be crossed.
Phoenix: That is incorrect, there were very few Mexicans living in California when the US annexed it, and at the time would have viewed themselves as Spanish, considering California along with what is today the US south west and Mexico was all called New Spain. The same in Texas, very much Mexicans, or Tejanos , and again the descendants of Spanish Europeans, and not Mestizo s, Spanish/ indigenous mixture.
Also when Mexico became independent they spent years conquering the Yucatán peninsula, today the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, and the location of Cancun. The Mayans maintained a pretty much independent Mayan nation.
The only people that got screwed were the indigenous people who lived in California and the southwest, and what is today Mexico.
“Is it just me, or does anyone else think the 218k number is an underestimation?”
By more than a few I would think…many of the cohort who hit prime earnings potential (early, mid-30s) in a high paying industries twenty years ago or so who just did middle of the fairway investments and home ownership for their income level 9seven figures) will likely qualify…and that doesn’t even account for current independent business owners and real estate investors and moreso those who exited and banked the proceeds, nor VC/PE backed execs/founders…and, for kicks and giggles, throw in the C-suite (E, F, O) across the SPX with three decades of comp and options packages and you’ve got a bunch right there…
“This comes as the number of U.S.-based millionaires individuals increased by 2.5 million last year, bringing the total number in the country to 62.5 million.”
Said it here a while ago…the millionaire measure is not that meaningful anymore…the new ‘millionaire’ is $10 million…..Liquid.
Why do that when politicians can funnel tens of billions to Ukraine and wheel a large portion of it out the backdoor to their bagmen?
That’s exactly what the 740 billion dollar Inflation Construction Act accomplishes; a portal to democrat coffers to campaign against evil America. Sure, a small portion will go towards some miniscule bread and water entitlements because appearances matter.
3b
I will take your word for it. My post was from a comedy routine.
1 million is a nice retirement nest egg for someone who is over sixty and has always lived modestly, gets decent social security or a pension. But you aren’t going to marry Marylin Monroe.
I also think the number of millionaires is about to spike down along with cryptocrap, Cathie stocks, and assets in general.
Or on the other hand, inflation could make everyone a millionaire, as SNL predicted way back when it was funny.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1011599739455724
Salazar is a political grandstander…like most local, dogmatic officials acts before he thinks, assuming he even has the capacity for the latter….
So, which criminal laws exactly were broken?
Will amount to nothing…
You’d really need to be west of the first ridge system that stretches across NJ, north to south:
http://webhosting.web.com/imagelib/sitebuilder/misc/show_image.html?linkedwidth=560&linkpath=http://www.newjerseyscenic.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/Northern_New_Jersey_Mountains.jpg&target=_self
Even in an airburst scenario, I’d imagine the Kitattiny Valley would be fairly well protected by the geography. But I’ve got to imagine those beyond that first ridge system are in a fairly good position to survive.
leftwing says:
September 21, 2022 at 10:24 am
Said it here a while ago…the millionaire measure is not that meaningful anymore…the new ‘millionaire’ is $10 million…..Liquid
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zXmQW_aqBks
I just got back from Chase (bank). My private client bank associate spent nearly an hour with me picking my brain on a whole handful of financial issues, the pinnacle being her plan to purchase a multi in Belleville. I told her to lowball or wait two years and she’ll get a price that would make it a smart investment. She also thinks the person who brought my place would default within three years. In exchange for my lesson, she is going to let me know of any perks that represent a 4 to 8 percent return of my deposit in 6 months or less. She said once I joined private client, a lot of teaser offers come through. We’ll see.
“The EU is powerful enough to defend itself…and yet there is no unified EU army…Why would they need one when the have the USA to spend it’s blood and treasure. I mean given the size of the EU this is pitiful, the amount of Military, Humanitarian
Financial aid given by EU countries as compared to the United States.”
Damn, getting older…my memory isn’t what it used to be…wasn’t there recently a national politician who highlighted this fact and acted upon it, much to the chagrin of the Left? Can’t recall who, but I’m sure it was fairly recent….
Can you can a can as a canner can can a can?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1572275369277005832
I had no idea poor Westfield was in need of rehabilitation and redevelopment. More unnecessary PILOTS
https://www.nj.com/news/2022/09/owner-wants-to-turn-shuttered-nj-lord-taylor-into-big-downtown-redevelopment.html
“1 million is a nice retirement nest egg for someone who is over sixty and has always lived modestly, gets decent social security or a pension.”
Agree.
But that is quite different than as a measure of wealth, especially since that hypothetical 1m will likely be spent down over their remaining not insubstantial lifespan…
“Millionaire” used to be a measure of wealth…now it is a prerequisite for a good lifestyle in/around a major metro as one ages…
“the new ‘millionaire’ is $10 million…..Liquid.”
Damnit!
Your daughters need to be careful: Another win for the engineers who gave us this technology.
“Trooper Williams told the woman that was pretty several times, and inquired as to whether she gave ‘other’ types of massages. The ‘private’ type. The woman found Trooper Williams’ comments to be inappropriate and sexually suggestive; she was uncomfortable with the situation. That is why, when Williams briefly left her alone to answer another motorist’s request for directions, she began recording their conversation with her cell phone.”
“The woman made it clear that she did not give “sketchy” massages, and that Trooper Williams would need to go elsewhere for them. Trooper Williams took that as an opportunity to clarify: those were the type of massages he wanted. Trooper Williams told the woman that he had experienced both ‘types’ of massages before. He wanted to know what types of massages she had given.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMdc01iEvJ4
“But I’ve got to imagine those beyond that first ridge system are in a fairly good position to survive.”
As long as Whole Foods stays open.
Lib,
I’ve been at JPM Chase private banking for the last few years. Their interest rates are pitiful, savings, checking, CDs. Their customer service people leave every year. The best benefit, assuming that you keep a big enough balance, is that you can use any ATM anywhere, even with ridiculously high fees, and they will refund the fees.
I suspect the “teasers” you get offered will be knee-slappingly dumb. I think we told them to never approach us with investment ideas. Curious to hear of any good ones you get in the future.
Ironically, I’ve seen JPM Chase offering CDs on the Fidelity tradable CD platform with interest rates 2% higher than comparable CDs offered on the private banking website. But it is possible to strongarm the private bank customer service lady to get slightly higher rates on a CD than what they list. My wife has done it before.
Anyway, we’re sending more cash out of the JPM Chase account to buy CDs with higher rates on Fidelity.
At least JPM Chase private bank wasn’t as terrible as HSBC private bank, which immediately tried to convince my wife to buy CDs with embedded single stock derivatives.
NY Attorney General files lawsuit against Trump because maybe the Trump Org. misstated their asset values.
Three years of investigation and this is the best you can do?
LMAO!!!!
Lib, re: GNRC and TREX…don’t stroke out big guy…I stated clearly they were 52 lows, not for the faint of heart, and should be ‘watchlisted’, ie. not bought yesterday…
TREX is one I do like a lot. That should be a face ripper when rates/new homes level off. Plus the charts show good lines, company has huge support at 30 going back to 2018, at which time is was only a portion of its current size. That was the covid low as well…Plus zero debt. Frustrating for me is there is literally no market for its options…have a good number of 40Ps written but not meaningful enough in size unless I’m actually assigned…I’d like to get in below that level but not sure I will see it…shares 48 now and rising.
GNRC is tougher, chart not as good and it is getting run by shorts still as they rode it down from over 500 less than a year ago…that will eventually run its course. I see a line at 140 and 125 seems to be the line for the pre-covid and post- bounce…183 now and falling.
Both could have some move overnight with Fed presser and LEN/KBH reporting today.
Any knowledge on the reason for the 50%, eighteen month decline in WRK during 2018-19 or you going to make me do my diligence…?
The value of my house is $27,586,284.
That my assessment. Go ahead, sue me.
LMAO!!!
“I mean given the size of the EU this is pitiful, the amount of Military, Humanitarian
Financial aid given by EU countries as compared to the United States.”
GDP of the EU is about 70% of the US.
Based on that chart, it looks like the EU as a whole has contributed about the same share of their GDP as the US.
“The EU is powerful enough to defend itself…and yet there is no unified EU army…Why would they need one when the have the USA to spend it’s blood and treasure. I mean given the size of the EU this is pitiful, the amount of Military, Humanitarian
Financial aid given by EU countries as compared to the United States.”
Damn, getting older…my memory isn’t what it used to be…wasn’t there recently a national politician who highlighted this fact and acted upon it, much to the chagrin of the Left? Can’t recall who, but I’m sure it was fairly recent….”
Barack Obama?
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/obama-warns-nato-allies-to-share-defense-burden-we-can-t-do-it-alone/
Fast, I’m listening to her press conference…
It’s embarrassing…the only thing she revealed is how clueless she is about business operations and practices…
My favorite…her ‘charge’ that ‘he cheated the system, thereby cheating all of us’….well, that’s new law….especially considering there is no harmed party…ie, show me who lost money on his actions. She literally can not find a private plaintiff.
Pathetic too that she keeps hitting on his using the 5th as an indication of guilt…as an officer of the court she should know better….
Also, she showed her hand when she revealed her ‘remedy’ would be to ban him from taking loans from any NY bank (basically, any bank) for five years…basically shutting his business down.
Listen, the guy is an unrelenting, dumb as a post douche but this concerted effort to run him and his family for simply disrupting business as usual among established politicans…so wrong…
And before the fact oblivious, comprehension impaired among us start howling I’m an Orange fan I would show the same support for Bernie, AOC, etc if the full power of the State were brought upon them for their political views and actions. It’s simply wrong to use positions of power, especially elected political power, to settle personal grievances.
On WRK,
I distinctly remember a major paper shortage that year, but I’ll leave it to you to do your own DD. Don’t have much free time this week.
NoOne,
Not expecting much from the Private Client. Will order my free checks and will remain in it until I have less than 150K employed. I looked at their rates on everything. Just terrible. Even the sweep in their self-directed brokerage is 1/7 of what TD Ameritrade pays. She showed me some 2% 12-24 month CDs, to which I said, please don’t sell me anything. You got your tiny commission on the Private Client account. Be happy I was willing to give you that. She couldn’t tell me if they claw it back if I drop below the 150K minimum, which will happen within a year for sure.
Yes, the return of ATM fees is the big advantage, but I get that with NOVO, an online only bank already.
If It was a year ago and there was nearly no interest to be gained, it would be worth it. But $6,000(4% of 150K) to avoid ATM fees is a really bad deal. Correction, I think I am getting .02% interest. So call it $5,880. Just awful.
Appreciate you looking after me. Will let you know if any teasers have any value.
Loan fraud is a pretty serious crime- federal loan fraud can get you 30 years in prison.
The fact that both Trump Sr. and Eric took the fifth when deposed isn’t going to help their civil case (where taking the fifth can be considered as evidence of guilt by a jury).
That whole private client nonsense is an appeal to exclusivity in a way that enables them to rob you in entirely new ways. While it may not be explicit, you are paying for the luxury of the service model.
I’d wager a bet that their average client doesn’t really represent the net worth and liquidity that they purport to cater to.
In fact, it’s a wonderful business model to appeal to the kind of conspicuous consumption that NJ seems to love. I bet they are killing it here. Does the ATM and Credit Card just oooooze exclusivity? I hope it’s got words like private and wealth all over it.
Ironically, I’ve seen JPM Chase offering CDs on the Fidelity tradable CD platform with interest rates 2% higher than comparable CDs offered on the private banking website. But it is possible to strongarm the private bank customer service lady to get slightly higher rates on a CD than what they list. My wife has done it before.
Interesting, I was going to say the same thing. I just to chase CD yields from online bank to online bank, which was a serious pain in the ass. I too thought Fidelity had a fairly reasonable cross-section of competitive offerings, and it was incredibly simple.
Thought I was a loser for having a few fidelity accounts, it’s not a bad platform for those looking to DIY.
She fed her future all right
https://www.ghlinks.com.gh/who-is-aimee-bockr-future-executive-director/
“Barack Obama?”
Sure…..those finger, wagging warnings sure go far!!!
“Loan fraud is a pretty serious crime…”
That’s the point, where is the fraud?
How accurate is your statement of income when you apply for online credit?
Ever use KBB while selling a car? Under her theory KBB should be a criminal organization…multiple, different, concurrent valuations for the same asset.
How about re-assessments? We have some pros right here on our own board…Argue using select stats to get your taxes reduced then list substantially higher for a sale. On this theory and Lib’s recent closing the NJ AG should be chasing him.
And, most laughable, aside from the fact that not one financial institution that was purportedly defrauded suffered any damages, is that no bank on the planet Earth takes personal financial statements or compiled corporate statements anywhere near face value. They are the starting point for the bank’s own diligence. The AG is so clueless as to normal business practices it is hide your face embarrassing…..
I mean in her presser she highlighted he showed an intangible asset (which she incorrectly identified as ‘tangible’) and assigned value to the name ‘Trump’ like that was some crime. LOL…this is beyond even Maxine Waters level of ignorance.
Feeling good for 2:30p….2Y breaking four yet vol coming in….
chi, on the dip yesterday added to my vert spreads by putting on some 387/389s right around 0.60…binary outcome on all of these most likely given 4:15p expiry and that I expect a move in either direction, ie. if it is away from me with an hour left in trading I’m SOL, no time to recover…
“And, most laughable, aside from the fact that not one financial institution that was purportedly defrauded suffered any damages,”
Under the law, that’s irrelevant.
But if everything you said is true, then a judge will probably throw out the case.
1:02 good luck with that argument.
Fed does 75 bp increase.
Actually Leftwing – The assessment thing is entirely different. When we appealed our assessments down we reviewed every single multi-family sale in town during the full year usable period before deciding whether to appeal. We had to look at all of them because the township has the ability to cherry pick their comps to support their assessment.
We’ve been most successful in reassessment/revaluation years when we were legit over assessed at the time- because in those markets there was no comparison in the sales price of turnkey single family homes to our dated multi and the crap formulas that were used to assess value dumped way too much value into land as opposed to improvement. And even then, while we were successful in arguing our assessment down, we were still sorta screwed because we were held to 100% value for the new assessment when in actuality the town/assessing company pegged most homes at 85-90% of FMV….so we got reductions, but we were still assessed likely 10% above the average folks in town. We actually pointed that out during the hearing and was told we didn’t have standing to argue that and would basically have to challenge the entire reassessment in State Tax Court.
Post revaluation/reassessment year, the town actually gets an extra 15% buffer to defend assessments in order to protect them from slight variations in the market. The only times we have successfully appealed our assessments down in post reval years was when the market was tanking and our assessments were truly above market value. Any municipal assessor worth the tax dollars they are being paid should understand that assessments need to be revised BEFORE certifying them to the county tax administrator for that tax year, but many are too lazy to do their jobs.
When we were revalued in Montclair at the top of the market in 2006, we had a legit unfair assessment…and in researching what we would need to do to contest it, we immediately realized that Montclair was on the precipice of a cliff, as pretty much anyone in town would have a legitimate tax appeal for the next tax year (and several after that). When property owners successfully appeal an assessment after it has been certified to the county, the refunds for school and county taxes don’t come from those entities, the municipality has to refund them out of the municipal budget. State law used to let the towns bond for this money. When we realized what a financial disaster was looming, we emailed the town mayor and town councilors and begged them to do something to fix this. And guess what? They chose to ignore it for years and the tune of millions of dollars until the state changed the game and they could no longer borrow to cover the cost.
We have never ever pursued a tax appeal based on fraudulent data. The current assessment of our property is based on the actual value of the property probably 5+ years ago. Montclair should really consider another townwide reassessment because there have been massive changes in the market since the last one – i.e. Million dollar homes on Mission Street now. I am sure that if you look at the assessments across the board that there are massive inequities.
They probably won’t do one now (unless the county forces it)because the market is going to drop. In an ideal world, these assessments would be reset to market value each and every year, but doubt that will be happening anytime soon.
more importantly, it reflects two more 75 this year, so 12/31/22 FFR predicted 4.50%
3b says:
September 21, 2022 at 2:01 pm
Fed does 75 bp increase.
Of course, but why is market dropping? On every rate raising day, it bounced upwards (and then gave it all back the following day).
Maybe because inflation dropping all the way to 8.3 from 8.5 after 3 whole points of lending rate increases amounts to nothing (especially with fuel costs dropping so much)?
2Y 408
10Y 357
50+ inversion…… Booya
lib: market still doesn’t believe the conviction of Powell….. terminal rate seems to be 475, but some hawks are put 6’s out there…..
But Powell said, “PAIN!”
I don’t believe the conviction of Powell either.
Chgo: Agreed.
Lib; Gas price drops may be over at this point. Prices expected to rise this Fall/ Winter.
“he showed an intangible asset (which she incorrectly identified as ‘tangible’) and assigned value to the name ‘Trump’ like that was some crime.”
It is if you ignore GAAP rules.
NJGator,
When property owners successfully appeal an assessment after it has been certified to the county, the refunds for school and county taxes don’t come from those entities, the municipality has to refund them out of the municipal budget.
I never knew that. I wonder why that is the case. Is it because the municipality is responsible for setting the assessments? Regardless, that’s really odd.
In an ideal world…
More like in a dream world :-) Nothing about property taxes and the assessment process in NJ contains any logic or, dare I say, fairness.
The part no one talks about…in order to lower inflation you must deflate. How the stock market hasn’t been hammered yet is beyond me, it’s impossible for earnings to grow in an environment where the Fed is trying to kill inflation.
Libturdamous says:
September 21, 2022 at 2:28 pm
Of course, but why is market dropping? On every rate raising day, it bounced upwards (and then gave it all back the following day).
Maybe because inflation dropping all the way to 8.3 from 8.5 after 3 whole points of lending rate increases amounts to nothing (especially with fuel costs dropping so much)?
And yes it is as simple as that….don’t fight the Fed.
chi, lib out of half of the 87/89s at 70% profit…
out the 91/93s at 20% up….remainder of the 87/89s are riding the rest of the day.
all about the presser boys. even with the cliff at 2:00-2:04p…
I think Trump walks. Start bringing in counterparties to those loans to testify, and just to save face they are going to say that the inflated valuations played no role, and the loans were supported by their own internal due diligence and risk teams.
Lib: Powell can talk about his soft landing, but history shows it’s rare, and his 75 bp increase demonstrate otherwise as far as any soft landing.
“not one financial institution that was purportedly defrauded suffered any damages”…”Under the law, that’s irrelevant.”
Understood…makes for an interesting case though….
Judge: Hmmmm…so $250 million of fraud Madame AG…for the record which parties were impacted?
AG: Uhmmm…no one your Honor.
Judge: OK…..
BREAKING
New York AG Letitia James announced Wednesday she is suing Trump
Her office has been probing Trump for allegedly boosting property valuations when seeking lending
Suit seeks $250 million and wants a judge to bar real estate transactions, lending, and serving on boards for five years
At press conference she said Trump inflated values of Mar-a-Lago, his Trump Tower Triplex, and several other properties
She said he tripled the value of the apartment and valued it at more than any apartment sold in New York
Lawsuit comes as Trump is facing Justice Department probe over documents marked classified and multiple other probes
‘Claiming you have money that you do not have does not amount to the “Art of the Deal. It’s the art of the steal,’ she said
Boing….. Powell slipped up somehow….
Nice job lefty.
Will be interesting to see where this pits the market over the next few days.
Fuck saving face….. there are much bigger fish out there that have done worse…. it would kill their business if they did the kiss-and-tell…..
grim says:
September 21, 2022 at 2:49 pm
I think Trump walks. Start bringing in counterparties to those loans to testify, and just to save face they are going to say that the inflated valuations played no role, and the loans were supported by their own internal due diligence and risk teams.
Silly Dems keep the Trump fires burning and the positive publicity to his supporters, rather then just ignoring him.
Meanwhile, a lot of legitimate questions surrounding old Joe and his shady drug addict sons business dealings and that’s the ignored.
“Post revaluation/reassessment year, the town actually gets an extra 15% buffer to defend assessments”
That statement right there proves my point….valuations are an art, not science, and the ONLY valuation that matters is when a willing, arms length party pushes a check across the table. Doubt me? Ask CW. Or Musk lol.
“We have never ever pursued a tax appeal based on fraudulent data.”
Never implied you did. Point is you argue a lower valuation for a reval while if you were to sell the house you would be arguing to the buyers a different, higher valuation.
Same asset. Same time. Same data. Selectively used for your advantage depending on the counterparty. Exactly the same as for KBB….three valuations on the same set of facts differing only by the situation of the counterparty. That is what Trump Co did here. And is done every single day by individuals and corporates all over the globe.
Normal practice. Not a crime. Especially when no bank ever has relied upon anyone’s personal or compiled financials without diligence. Or suffered any loss.
You’re buying the beers…….
leftwing says:
September 21, 2022 at 2:45 pm
chi, lib out of half of the 87/89s at 70% profit…
“Of course, but why is market dropping? On every rate raising day, it bounced upwards…”
Previous raises were into accelerating economies. This one is different, many measures have rolled starting even back to May…
leftwing,
This is not related to Trump, but banks have definitely proceeded without sufficient, or any, due diligence before.
Especially when no bank ever has relied upon anyone’s personal or compiled financials without diligence.
“he showed an intangible asset…and assigned value to the name ‘Trump’ like that was some crime.”…”It is if you ignore GAAP rules.”
Absolutely not.
That is part of the point here…there aren’t hard ‘standards’ for these personal/compiled financials….
And it’s not just GAAP (which as you may know is only one of several accounting standards itself).
Any payment of purchase price over tangible value is by definition ‘goodwill’, ie. intangible. In M&A one of the biggest tug of wars is purchase price allocation for tax – not GAAP – purposes as different classes of intangibles can have different treatments.
Again, all underscoring the point, the level of ignorance on display by the AG to these points is astounding.
It is literally criminalizing his view of his personal financial condition without an injured party while the actual counterparties pursue their own independent analysis for their own purpose, all with the backdrop that this is normal business practice…ie, the way this part of the world works.
And Deutche Bank is “cooperating”
CBS News @CBSNews
NY AG says that Trump valued Mar-a-Lago as high as $739M, when it should have been valued at about $75M.
left: what a fucking ping pong machine in the last 90 minutes…. you want to mess with this action, that is your business….. machines are faster than you……
“I think Trump walks. Start bringing in counterparties to those loans to testify, and just to save face they are going to say that the inflated valuations played no role, and the loans were supported by their own internal due diligence and risk teams.” [my emphasis]
“This is not related to Trump, but banks have definitely proceeded without sufficient, or any, due diligence before.”
“Fuck saving face….. it would kill their business if they did the kiss-and-tell…..”
And more than ‘face’ or ‘business considerations’ it is the way the industry works…
Guys, you’re playing on my home field….I can absolutely assure you there are well maintained files full of the bank’s own diligence and their own third party appraisals for collateral according to its policies and procedures signed off by likely close to a dozen individuals, line and credit (the watchdogs), internally audited for completeness and outside audited by the FDIC. Each annually….
Joyce, can malevolence on the part of any banker/bank trump these procedures? Yes, but that situation is an extreme outlier and one can rarely protect against intentional bad actions by insiders in any organization, bank or otherwise.
Holy timed the bounce Lefty. I would’ve bailed there too. I still would’ve stayed away. Too unpredictable for me.
The NY AG’s move, obviously timed to try to impact midterms, is really just the latest example of the Dem-led decline (if not destruction) of our institutions. With crime skyrocketing in NY and dangerous criminals routinely put back on the street with no bail and no concern about ever being incarcerated, you’d think the AG and her minions would have more important things to focus on. The main take-away from today’s move, and yesterday’s announcement from the hack sheriff of Bexar County Texas, is that the desperate Dem weaponization of law enforcement to target their political opponents, is complete. It’s also clear that this weaponization has moved beyond Trump, to any Rep that the Dems fear as a political opponent, like DeSantis. What the Dems are now doing is literally no different that what the Soviet Secret Police perfected a hundred years ago — Dem political leadership finds the man, Dem ‘law enforcement’ finds the crime!
Is there a jail for people who are anti-establishment (good), but who are complete gauche jackasses simultaneously (bad)?
Can we just restrict him to house arrest in Lago?
“left: what a fucking ping pong machine in the last 90 minutes…. you want to mess with this action, that is your business….. machines are faster than you……”
Haha, I like the flashing colors. It’s comforting to me lol. Legged out of a portion at one point could not see the exit price for ten minutes, systems so jammed up.
Not nearly what I wanted all-in on this trade but I’ll take profits in any form…I did exit the remainder at my hard stop for trades of this type at 50% down…I’m more agitated that the rest of my positions (META and GOOG) pulled me down beneath a threshold NLV I broke earlier this year and wanted to hold…not a big deal as they are marks on my 20% down/write trades so it will all come out in the wash but I hate red and don’t like turning back to pages already read…
Vol obviously will continue. Keep an eye on GOOG guys, flirting with 100 and my eyes see a bunch of lines at 90. Basically there…
Gundlach on CNBC right now…usually very good but I get the feeling he is long bonds and talking his book these days…which if so is a shame as he is one of smarter humans out there and worth listening to…
A civil lawsuit.
LMAO!!
left,
The level of ignorance on display by you is astounding.
We are not talking about Donnies personal/compiled financials…., we are talking Trump.org, private for profit company. All companies define the accounting standard they want to follow and have to stick to it. Most choose GAAP. If the org is defining GAAP as the standard they have to follow the rules.
Yes M&A will fight over the intangibles. Market Value = Assets – Liabilites + Intangibles. With publicly traded, you have the share prices that can determine market value and you can fight over the split. Private companies only get set on the sell price.
Under GAAP only acquired intangibles can make it onto the balance sheet. There can be no goodwill until the first sale. Trump brand has never been acquired, it is an internal development. Only expenses associated with the brand can be accounted for. If Trump.org was sold to Kushner, Jared could take the brand onto his balance sheet and adjust it up and down accordingly.
Left: I can’t say anymore, except you are absolutely correct. The Dems are embarrassing themselves yet again. I am starting to believe this is a deliberate coordinated action on the part of the Dems and the portions of the media who support them to keep Trump in the news. Fire up his base, keep the Republican establishment from dumping Trump. Trump runs again in 2024, and people have no choice but to vote for the Dems. The party whose only alternative to Trump was a cranky old man with 50 years in DC , and no real record.
Repubs bad for nominating and electing Trump, and the Dems for clueless Biden. Both parties blow!!
Wait until Biden announces he’s running for a 2nd term. Talk about a clueless party!
4:19 not quite. But good try!
Lib: Or he steps down as he kind of hinted he might on 60 minutes the other night and we get Kamala Harris. Who is at it again with rambling inane comments; her latest below in SC
“ We have invested an additional 12 billion in community banks, because we know community banks are in the community, and understand the needs and desires of that community as well as the talent and capacity of community.”
Seriously?? She is absolutely clueless, and she wants and feels she is capable of being the President of the US. She is an embarrassment!
Ex: The beauty of not being affiliated with a political party, or the need to feel if you are criticizing your party you are somehow supporting the other party is the ability to keep an open mind. I may be completely off base, but do you have another credible theory?
“you there are well maintained files full of the bank’s own diligence ”
Yet the SEC keep fining them.
https://bettermarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/BetterMarkets_Wall_Street_RAP_Sheet_Report_052022.pdf
“This report now details each of the 430 major legal actions that all six Wall Street banks have been
involved in over the past 20+ years, which have resulted in nearly $200 billion in fines and settlements.
As detailed below, that alleged or settled illegal conduct spans almost every conceivable type of
financial crime or violation:
• money laundering;
• bribery;
• massive fraud in the sale of mortgage-backed securities;
• credit card and checking account abuses;
• foreclosure and debt collection violations;
• breaches of fiduciary duty;
• antitrust violations;
• market manipulation;
• enabling Ponzi schemes; and
• even violations of election law.
“
Another slip of tongue from Trumpies. How many is that now? They just can’t help exciting the nazis in their base.
Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, in a slip of the tongue on Tuesday, told Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo that he “condones” white supremacy.
4:53 being aligned with and f’cked by are a term of degrees.
left: what a fucking ping pong machine in the last 90 minutes…. you want to mess with this action, that is your business….. machines are faster than you……
Longed the SPY at around 2:20 to try for free dinner right before leaving today. Worked out great until I got on 287. I had to pull over at Quick Check to sell out of the position as when I hit a few lights and glanced at the screen, I saw the hard turn downward. Escaped with $45. Not quite enough to cover dinner at Sahara.
Ex You And the other Dems and the Repubs can go on arguing back and forth. There are many of us though who hate both parties and understand there is no difference between the parties. They both blow.
If it’s such a “political witch hunt”, why would the Trump family take the 5th so many times and then make a big settlement offer to avoid prosecution last week?
8:49 yeah but you gotta admit they blow for very different reasons.
Jerome Powell is committed to 2% inflation and will keep tightening the screws until we get there. Good. This generation is going to learn what ‘long term’ means and that there are hard down cycles and not instant profit forever. The digital generation is going to learn that sometimes, you just gotta go to bed without your supper.
Admit it, you’ve never missed a meal ya fat f-ck.