From Forbes:
Fed Chair Calls Housing Market “Very Overheated”
Jerome Powell said he viewed the U.S. housing market as “very overheated” after the pandemic, and believes supply and demand need to get back into balance.
Powell spoke at a press conference on November 2 as the U.S. Federal Reserve Committee, which Powell chairs, raised rates 0.75 percentage points to fight surging U.S. inflation. That could raise mortgage costs further, after they have already risen substantially in 2022. Powell’s actions and comments were not positive for housing.
Powell doesn’t see parallels to the great financial crisis because lending and credit standards for mortgages are now much higher in the Fed’s view than during the financial crisis, so Powell believes fallout from a weaker housing market for the broader economy market may be lower.
Powell made clear that his main concern is managing inflation, and if anything, rather than looking to support asset valuations such as housing, stocks and bonds, Powell is far more focused on driving inflation lower. There’s not much evidence of the ‘Fed put’ today, which is the market term for how the Fed would step in and perhaps look to cut rates if stock valuations fell sharply. That may be bad news for housing too.
Powell may believe that lower asset valuations may be part of the solution to lower inflation currently, rather than a problem the Fed is seeking to remedy.
Given that rates may rise higher still over the coming months, that is not necessarily good news for the housing markets. We should note of course that future rate expectations are typically embedded in mortgage costs, so the Fed raising rates in line with market forecasts won’t necessarily cause longer term mortgage rates to correspondingly rise too much.
…
Based on today’s comments the chance of the Fed supporting the housing market appear low compared to the priority of fighting inflation. If anything, the Fed may actually be looking for house prices come down. This is because housing costs are a large portion of the inflation index which the Fed wants to tame. Lower house prices may be what the Fed needs for lower levels of U.S. inflation.
First
The Biden Administration’s latest attempt to rebrand terrible economic news as good news was so blatant that even CNN’s fact-checker Daniel Dale called them out.
In a Tuesday tweet, the White House claimed that “Seniors are getting the biggest increase in their Social Security checks in 10 years through President Biden’s leadership.”
Seniors are getting the biggest increase in their Social Security checks in 10 years through President Biden’s leadership.
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) November 1, 2022
Except, that’s only because it’s tied to inflation – which has skyrocketed.
Based on today’s comments the chance of the Fed supporting the housing market appear low compared to the priority of fighting inflation. If anything, the Fed may actually be looking for house prices come down. This is because housing costs are a large portion of the inflation index which the Fed wants to tame. Lower house prices may be what the Fed needs for lower levels of U.S. inflation.
Call Mr. Powell and I will personally usher him around and show him what the lower middle class (that’s us) goes through when shopping for a house. He may raise that FED rate to 8.25% in a hurry. As stated above, “Lower house prices may be what the Fed needs for lower levels of U.S. inflation.” LOLOLOL!
Good luck around here, pal. If that statement is the case, ‘short’ every asset on the planet. I’ll stand by my prediction: roaches and nauseatingly high house prices in NJ/NY/CT will be the only things left standing after a nuclear war.
dentssdunnigan says:
November 3, 2022 at 6:37 am
Biden single handily has pushed SS into earlier insolvency. Not much of an accomplishment , than they all blame the Republicans for trying to rein in spending. Joe now can claim he was the worst president ever! The big guy wins, except people will freeze to death this winter….all on Biden for trying to put oil out of business.
Just can’t make this stuff up , reality sucks for all Americans.
Post of the year! Lmao
Fast Eddie says:
November 3, 2022 at 7:05 am
Based on today’s comments the chance of the Fed supporting the housing market appear low compared to the priority of fighting inflation. If anything, the Fed may actually be looking for house prices come down. This is because housing costs are a large portion of the inflation index which the Fed wants to tame. Lower house prices may be what the Fed needs for lower levels of U.S. inflation.
Call Mr. Powell and I will personally usher him around and show him what the lower middle class (that’s us) goes through when shopping for a house. He may raise that FED rate to 8.25% in a hurry. As stated above, “Lower house prices may be what the Fed needs for lower levels of U.S. inflation.” LOLOLOL!
Good luck around here, pal. If that statement is the case, ‘short’ every asset on the planet. I’ll stand by my prediction: roaches and nauseatingly high house prices in NJ/NY/CT will be the only things left standing after a nuclear war.
“I can’t believe ROKU peaked at $459 per share mid 2021. It closed at $54 and is $45 AH.”
CW shit-cos deliver on the downside.
What is troubling is all this maneuvering in and out of shorts trying to avoid temporary face rippers, yeah I guess it helped avoid depressing days…but jeez, I could have just shorted the whole portfolio and ignored it for 12 months and come out just as well.
Fast: Time will tell, but you can’t get blood from a stone.
left, how about some others.
CVNA 350 down to 13
TWLO 435 to 66
SQ 270 to 50
SHOP 169 to 30
What’s more concerning is, is there a difference between a sh1tco and a mega cap tech stock?
FB 380 to 90 so far.
What are we? 1 more earnings report before their charts are indistinguishable.
BRT, yeah, sign of unhealthy markets…too much volatility up and down…I’ve had everything on a short leash for well over three years now when I went substantially into cash…tiresome.
The echo of monetary policy 2008-21, and the government’s inexplicably asinine pandemic policies, is going to ring around these hills for a while…
Powerball EV might just be approaching parity – maybe I’ll buy a ticket.
Grim, don’t spend more than $2.
My back of the envelope calculation gives you an EV of $5 before the 25-35% in taxes.
Bystander,
How was that Marcus King gig the other night?
” I could have just shorted the whole portfolio and ignored it for 12 months and come out just as well.”
That’s what I said all along. Though I didn’t have the cajones to do it. I’m too risk-adverse. Though, when we hit approach blood in the streets, I am going all damn the way in. It’s hard to believe it, but Powell is sounding more and more like a Volcker by the month. When this thing bottoms, the platform for long-term growth is going to be built on an incredibly strong foundation. This flimsy façade, that passed for the “great” economy, pretty much existed since 1999, but really hit Silly Ville in 2008. Sadly, it was just a bull in waiting to be butchered. Powell appears to be that butcher.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS34003A
All-Transactions House Price Index for Bergen County, NJ
Powell appears to be that butcher.
Release the Kraken!!
Curve inversion at 55 bps. Some calling for it to go into the 80’s.
That is some big swinging recession signal.
joyce,
No disputing that chart.
To all you muppet playas out there, I want 7 digits for my house. Interest rates are for the little people.
It was a low inflation environment. Should we give the rich a free ride to maintaining their status without having to take any risk with their capital? Just let them collect high returns into infinity?
Understand the purpose of capital in an economic system. It’s to either invest (help everyone else for a reward) or buy what you need (help yourself). If neither is being done, only accumulating wealth through guaranteed means, that should be paid at a low return, esp since it’s guaranteed. Otherwise, everyone is going to flood the bond market like they will be doing now. Bonds serve a purpose, but the rates shouldn’t be so attractive that they become more attractive than investing in the stock market or businesses.
Let’s be real. The only people buying large sum of bonds are swimming in excess capital. They are in preservation mode. Trying to reduce the risk of losing their money.
No One says:
November 2, 2022 at 3:46 pm
pumps,
So Cathie’s stocks can go up again, and people can pay negative YTM for government bonds again?
chi, no platform in front of me, the 10Y/3M?
Thank you all for comments re increasing comp at a w2. Very useful and insightful. I intend to make use of it going forward.
Only time it really went down was in a market driven by bs loans….this time is not the same as 2008. Totally different.
joyce says:
November 3, 2022 at 9:49 am
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS34003A
All-Transactions House Price Index for Bergen County, NJ
Again, the only way we see desirable houses go for 20 to 30% off is in a deflationary spiral. Deflationary spiral will not happen because the Fed will pivot. Only houses you will see with this discount in this current market are POS’s being forced to sell. Prove it to me…show me desirable homes selling with a 20-30% discount.
5 Days to Election Day . . .
Biden gives a presidential address and says “democracy is at risk”. He is leaning on the traditional instruction that Americans received when they are young that democracy is best. Meanwhile, his party is the party of burning down our traditions (the founding fathers were racist slaveowners and everything about the USA is rotten to the core, right?).
“[Children in public schools] are OUR [i.e., parents’] children. Not the Government’s children. OUR children!”
-Yesli Vega, R candidate, VA-07
2Y 471
10Y 416
3M USD LIBOR 451
Your goal posts for “deflation” are always moving. Now it’s, if home prices retreat to 2015 prices, it’s Armageddon In 2015, it was, if they retreat to 2012 prices, it would be Armageddon. The same goes for the stock market. The 52 week high was the new baseline expectation for 10 years straight.
I have some floaters capped at 700. I think that that hedge starts hitting the marks as much as the widening of corporate spreads.
Your zygote is YOURS [Belongs to the Government until it’s born].
– Libturd, can’t believe the idiocy in spreading narratives [Government lies], NJ-10
So tell me, how do you get a 30% drop on desirable housing without deflation? Only way those properties drop in price are if people have less money in their pockets. People buying desirable properties usually are not the one’s getting laid off and unable to find a job. These are the people that will not sell in a downturn unless forced to.
It is armageddon if houses retreat to 2015 levels. Total destruction. Understand that a majority of the population owns housing. Not a minority. Understand that for a good portion of the homeowners, all their money is tied up in it. They don’t buy stocks or anything else. So you tell me how losing 30% of their wealth is not armageddon? The ripple effects would be a complete disaster in the economy.
Meanwhile, his party is the party of burning down our traditions…
It started with Oblammy’s vow to “transform” America and it hasn’t let up since. The democrat party consists of nothing but weirdos and elitists. It’s the classic barbell effect. The vegetable got elected as a prop and the volume level only increased. Their onslaught of ads are nothing but the freedom to murder babies and January 6th. If that Inflation Reduction Act was so vital, how come they’re not talking about it? Why are they not running on their ‘accomplishments’?
Earnings AND sales growth slowed in October at Costco. Hmmmm. Can you feel that recession coming?
Unless you tap equity in the form of refi, Heloc etc. the value of the house is psychological. It is illiquid. Also STFU and go back to your day care responsibilities.
The Great Pumpkin says:
November 3, 2022 at 10:38 am
It is armageddon if houses retreat to 2015 levels. Total destruction. Understand that a majority of the population owns housing. Not a minority. Understand that for a good portion of the homeowners, all their money is tied up in it. They don’t buy stocks or anything else. So you tell me how losing 30% of their wealth is not armageddon? The ripple effects would be a complete disaster in the economy.
BRT the issue with CW shit-co stocks distinct from others is that many of hers don’t have a reason to actually exist…they literally do not have business models that people will use (pay) at a level for their services that can generate sustained meaningful profit, if any.
ROKU, both their suppliers and customers would prefer not to pay them. They have a minor embedded OS that is not proprietary, and a piece of hardware they lose money on as a loss leader. They’re increasing expenses 50-70% to increase revenue 15%…guess they’ll make that up on volume lol.
CVNA, even sillier….let’s take a local business that makes $2k per unit, roll it up to a national level with all the associated costs and expenses, add on top bespoke services that have to be supported, and believe that $2k profit per unit will somehow scale to cover all the new overhead underneath.
Both are built on free money, CVNA x2 as their only reason to exist was to pump shit securitized loan paper out into ZIRP environment at rates well below inherent risk but above zero…once that market dried up even they know there is no game for their underlying car selling business.
HOOD…lol, let’s not even get started on that one….
I read ROKU’s management letter for the quarterly results this morning to see if there is any more short juice to be squeezed there…it is literally a flashback to 2001 bubble garble…expansion overseas, expansion into content production, expansion into smart home devices (which they gleefully note they are number one ranked based on the metric of the amount of shelf space allocated amongst competitors at Walmart). That parenthetical is a true quote. Not kidding. All for a company whose base business model is unproven in its primary market.
When unprofitable growth companies embrace overseas and product line expansions (ROKU), undertake multiple M&A (TDOC), rely on securitizations of the underlying unprofitable operations as a business model (CVNA), or run afoul multiple times of regulators while their smartest private equity investors head for the exits and their customer base can’t wait to ‘graduate’ up to their competitors (HOOD) you should run, not walk, away. Every. Single. Time.
Live. Lightning Crashes circa 1995?
Libturd says:
Can you feel that recession coming?
Left: you co-lead the Global Crossing IPO didn’t you? Scumbag
That was my point. In 2014, you wouldn’t declare it Armageddon if we went to 2015 prices. What changed?
Yesterday BRT wrote:
“We live in a world where people believe the currency needs to be continually debased in order to achieve prosperity. It’s pretty sad.”
Believe the experts! Of course prosperity built on monetary illusions will have shaky foundations.
The gold standard starts looking pretty good in comparison to current rule by central planners at central banks, coupled with treasury departments and congresses fully willing to take advantage of their ability to print money. Government officials hate the “constraints” that the gold standard put on their power to seemingly reinvent reality, and love the ability to sprinkle benefits on voters, paid with the printing press (now just an electronic ledger).
Ed,
It was fun. Really just wanted to see Phil one last time and hear him sing a few classics. Marcus was amazing as usual. Honestly, it was a little too much with 3 guitarists. Phil obviously trying to push his son into bigger spotlight. He is good but only so much time and they started playing over each other. Marcus shined on blues numbers and songs that allowed him to sing and breathe. Krasno was solid but he is one of great jazz guitarists around so setlist dependent. Would shine on funkier 70s stuff like Fire. Hard to find good quality from night which is strange. He is a Marcus song that worked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfymwEaEr9o
“So tell me, how do you get a 30% drop on desirable housing without deflation?”
Average family in NJ has 6K in credit-card debt. Gotta figure the FED induced interest increase will be 6% by Spring. So now your minimum payment is going up. And when you go to the supermarket, what used to be a $200 run is now a $300 run. Now your credit card balance is higher than it used to be, so not only is your minimum payment going up do to the higher debt service costs, but the total debt you have on the card is now higher than it usually is. It doesn’t help that your salary is increasing at less than half the pace that your bills are. So you cut back on your spending, as does everyone else suffering the same dilemma. Before long, you and a few of your friends have received pink slips. Though inflation has increased the cost of everything by nearly a quarter of it’s value in the last year and a half, your unemployment checks have not. And you need to pay for COBRA and the premiums there have skyrocketed by another 5% to $2,400 per month for a family of 4. Looks like we gotta downsize. Who is going to buy our place in THIS economy where people are being laid off left and right and their savings for retirement have dropped in value between 40 and 60%? Looks like we have no choice but to lower our price to sell it.
And there’s your 30% drop on desirable housing without deflation!
“Meanwhile, his party is the party of burning down our traditions (the founding fathers were racist slaveowners and everything about the USA is rotten to the core, right?).”
Many of the founding fathers WERE racist slaveowners! Or do you think they were the “good” kind of slaveholder?
Easter. The Chinese Flu will be over by Easter.
Yet you shit-for-brains are going crazy because Biden is taking credit for a Social Security increase.
It’s embarrassing. Just stop already. Seriously.
The economy is based on human psychology. You are paying a mortgage that is worth more than your house….tell me this how no impact on the economy and is only psychological. You have no understanding of this because you would not be in this position…
What happens if they lose their job….how do they sell the house if they are down 200-300k in equity compared to mortgage?
Chicago says:
November 3, 2022 at 10:44 am
Unless you tap equity in the form of refi, Heloc etc. the value of the house is psychological. It is illiquid. Also STFU and go back to your day care responsibilities.
11:27 . . .
Do we teach that the Founding Fathers were great thinkers who were able to build a system of popular governance that has withstood approximately 250 years and became the inspiration and aspiration of the entire free world? Do we teach that they were evil men who possibly and probably had human beings beaten, killed and raped?
What balance do we strike between the two? I’d say the weight needs to be the former, while OF COURSE the latter needs to be taught, as well.
Voices on the left want the latter emphasized. They want statues torn down rather than the postiive and negative of a historical figure discussed and taught.
Lib: It’s not the fact that he is taking credit for the SS rise, it’s the fact that he apparently does not know why the increase occurred ( largest rise in inflation in 40 years) or that he actually believes he did it. It’s the same thing with his student loan forgiveness where he said he got it passed with a vote or two. What vote? There was no vote! People can’t keep making excuses for him, it’s clear he does not know what is going on, or what he is or is not doing. Calling his comments gaffes or tall tales as The NY Times recently did is not cutting it. After the mid terms the Dems need to seriously reevaluate whether they truly want Biden for a second term. Same thing with Harris, the evidence is clear that she is not qualified for the job. She was described by one columnist as someone who when she speaks sounds like she is writing a book report on a book she did not read.
10:35 . . .
On the idiocy of the right, the left had a Supreme Court justice who refused to offer any definition of what a “woman” is in her confirmation hearings.
While maybe this was a principaled and moral stance to some, and maybe history will look kindly on KBJ for this (I wouldn’t understand why, but who knows) . . . it’s probably bad politics and not seen as sensible to folks wearing flannel shirts in Wisconsin. To a person who thinks they are a “normal American”, someone who can’t offer a definition of “woman” is off-the-rails. That “woman” moment is probably a good indicator of how the left is a bit off-kilter compared to the US citizenry.
We’ll see if this is true in 5 days.
LOL, not going crazy over them Lib, people are laughing at them…the sheer stupidity of his public facing officials who either (i) believe what they wrote or (ii) knew it was BS but assumed they wouldn’t get caught in that ridiculous claim. Not sure which menu item is worse, lol. Maybe Biden is the one who should just stop…stop scraping the bottom of the barrel making up something – anything – positive to say going into midterms…
chi…not my area so not sure but….so late ’99 and early ’00 we are just pumping out ‘innovation’ companies equity offerings…got to the point the salesforce (back in the days you could actually speak with them) although grinning ear-to-ear had those nervous smiles and were like wtf. I felt the same way. Go to my Group Head, with basically the question are we still sure, pedal to the metal with this kind of stuff? I got totally undressed…totally. Not my business, not what I’m paid to do, who the fuck am I, if the customer wants green suits make more green suits. Was asked, and confirmed, that our roles were more than fully covered, diligence and disclosure…probably popped another 5 or 6 out before it all tumbled down. Have no idea what those institutions were thinking…no one in the firm did….
We should teach that the founders were brilliant and flawed men, living in a different time.
Celebrate their great accomplishments, but don’t sugarcoat their flaws and hypocrisy either, because those flaws were as important in shaping the future of the US as were their accomplishments.
Hey Left,
Still watching Darling? She seems to be a nice long-term play and for the most part, has been immune to market conditions. Plus, she’s a “green” company.
OC at 12:00 . . .
I agree with this completely. 100% eloquent and well-said. Three cheers.
The voters will decide in five days which of the two parties is not living up to the excellent sentiment you just wrote. I suppose we disagree which of the two it is.
This is how innovation works. Look what came out of 99/00. Changed our world. Did all innovators win? No, but the ones that do change our world. Same thing will happen with Cathie companies. The few winners will carry it all and change the world we live in. If you don’t agree, you are just lying to yourself.
“chi…not my area so not sure but….so late ’99 and early ’00 we are just pumping out ‘innovation’ companies equity offerings…got to the point the salesforce (back in the days you could actually speak with them) although grinning ear-to-ear had those nervous smiles and were like wtf. I felt the same way. Go to my Group Head, with basically the question are we still sure, pedal to the metal with this kind of stuff? “
3B,
I don’t disagree with your perception of Biden or Harris. I just find his claim of raising SS payments all that dubious. He’s a lifetime politician. Making claims like this is what politicians have been doing since the beginning of time. It’s really no different than Trump claiming that he is presiding over the greatest economy of all time. Or that he is responsible for the all-time record low unemployment when he simply sped up the economy through lowering interest rates, gimmicks like one-time repatriation discounts and cutting corporate taxes so that the corporations can buy back shares, artificially juicing their earnings, which set us up for what we are experiencing today. I wish none of them deceived or straight up lied all of the time, but this is not the case. They all spread false optimism and NEVER do as they preach. Heck, guess who didn’t show up at church this Easter? That religious imposter who made a mockery of all Christians by standing in front of that church near the White House, proudly holding up a bible for all of his foolish disciples to swallow whole.
So which is really worse? A lie is a lie is a lie. I didn’t vote for either of them. I just get to suffer the consequences of both parties attempts to further enrich themselves while they deceive the masses of asses. And then I have to read what these asses have to say all day on the blog, when I could be focusing my team on figuring out how to preserve my wealth from being stolen by their greedy tentacles.
“$QQQ We are witnessing the second coming of the “Dot-com” bust. So many names are down 80-90% peak to trough. The difference is many of these names will likely still be around unlike 2002 Dot-com bust.
I will say we are in the 8th inning of this drawdown. 2023 will be fireworks.”
Lib: I don’t disagree, but with Biden it’s a history of lies going back years, and now lies and mental decline. Trump bragging about the greatest economy is simply that bragging / exaggeration etc All the politicians as you note do that. Biden in my view again different, a history of lies coupled now with cognitive decline. In the end it’s shameful what both parties have become, and the awful choices for President that they offer to the American people.
What happens if they lose their job….how do they sell the house if they are down 200-300k in equity compared to mortgage?
oh I’m sorry, I thought we were supposed to learn from 2008.
Libturd,
Try to keep up. A good liberal is supposed to be laser focused on every flaw of DeSantis now, because they’re much more fearful of a DeSantis run than a Trump run. Indeed they would love another Trump run.
SNL executives already have their actors and are already trashing DeSantis. Meanwhile, there’s simply nothing funny about Biden or Harris or their PR lady that invites satire at all, in their little no-longer-funny heads. But they think they are “speaking truth to power”.
I’m hoping that Trump is politically dying. He’s not directly running much right now, and his favored candidates are struggling to win. If they do win, it’s not because they are running on Trump’s coattails, it’s because of the problems people have with the ideology of their opponents.
Lib, don’t know…at 15x forward (assuming guidance is good, looks like a big step up there) that doesn’t sound too bad but that’s on rear window market multiples…if market goes to more normal 14-15x where do I go with this company at 15x? Need to look at it (haven’t popped anything other than a description) but their end markets are likely more close to population growth? It’s been bouncing around that 60/85 channel for a while and near the upper end, which is pretty far from pre-covid highs…what breaks it out…
As I said I pared down individual names…did notice TREX breaking a three handle today…liking it there again….I could see it going to 30 (which is its covid low) it is housing related after all but it’s getting interesting…no liquidity in this position but if you’re a buyer of the stock a few ticks down instead of just waiting write some Dec 16 35P for 1.10…worse case if you’re hit you own the shares at 33.90…if your not filled you made a nice little return over 40 days on your capital.
GOOG approaching 80…ST this is pretty oversold…again it can go where it wants to over the next day or so and then into next year but where we heading with this? 75? 60? Highly doubt the latter. This one is running toward new money deployment territory….
And, taking my own advice, I’m lightening up on some written GOOG calls (effectively moving my position in this name more bullish). Part of a spread.
2/3 of value has been recognized…I’ll wait to see if the stock takes a short term pop and re-write more calls then….if not, they want to call my bluff on a 6 handle go for it. I’ll back up the truck then….
I have no issues with a DeSantis presidency..zero. He has ambition and just plays to angry rhetoric of red hat mook base. Italian immigrant family a few generations back, worked himself to Yale/Harvard, played bball, lost sister..I think he might be real person. This is unlike the TV prez who claimed who did more for “black people than any person since Abraham Lincoln”. Any exaggerations/lies by Biden would not make the Trump weekly top 10. I’ll take slow mental decline over narcissistic rage lunacy
2 billion users…
WhatsApp officially launches its new discussion group feature, Communities
https://gizmodo.com/whatsapp-communities-new-group-chat-feature-1849737258
Bystander: The difference with the Trump/ Biden lies is that Biden has been doing it for years. And now it’s lies combined with mental decline.
Lib, keep an eye on VNT also….stagnant core growth but just bought a better division, great capital structure (most debt years out, fixed at stupid low rates)….mind numbingly low valuation with results just reported (ie, no near term surprises). Even if you cut future earnings in half you’re still at an 11 or so multiple….Think I’ll violate the three day rule and start to scoop up some…
There are lies and there are lies.
Spin, taking credit for something you didn’t do… normal political lies.
Lies that encourage people to storm the capitol and put our democracy in peril… not normal political lies.
Really no comparison between the two.
bought some…
“2s/10s are inverted by 58 basis points 2/30s an enormous 53 basis points to you truly understand what this means . It’s enormous if you are a data analyst. For one thing inflation is probably negative looking forward and growth stagnant. This means rates are not too far from going lower. Whether 6 months or 18 what’s the difference when markets aren’t investable with yesterday’s newspaper unless You have yesterday’s newspaper the day after tomorrow.”
Something going to crack soon….only a matter of time before the Fed has to save the day.
Hopefully, your skill. :P
Skull. Damnit!
Whatsapp going after Reddit?
Left,
VNT looks like a winner, but I think you might have been able to get it a little cheaper.
Looks like a ton of tech companies are taking the opportunity to front-run Elon’s layoff news in hopes they get overshadowed tomorrow. Stripe, Lyft, Chime, etc etc. Going to be somber in the Bay Area this Friday night.
3B,
While I get your sentiment, there are literally thousands of people who are equally to blame for the sad state of this country over the course of 50 years. Biden is one of them. Trump is as well as 6 time BK grifter who used tax law to destroy AC multiple times over 40 years. He is the quintessential corp shyster to Biden’s political shyster. That said, you can only look at words. They give insight into thoughts, egos and mental states. You can’t compare the insane, off wall lies, No sane person claims things that Dumpy has. It is not even close. He has the thinnest skin of any person. He entertains the low IQ TV masses. He has lawyers and money and simply promotes his crap brand. Dumb people buy the faux strength. He is incredibly weak. Biden has some sense of demeanor and maturity at least.
Don’t know…did violate the three day rule which I don’t like doing. Still more room to buy until I hit final hold target though. M&A is a risk…grandchild of Danaher with similar buy/build strategy…they wouldn’t be dumb enough to do a share deal at these prices though, and they have bought back shares aggressively in past.
Gotta step in somewhere/sometime…mostly institutionally held spinout through earnings at a less than 6x multiple with solid cap structure seems not too aggressive…think the skew longer term of the next five points in my favor, ie. she’ll hit 22 before 12….
Some old Sam Kinison footage unearthed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-7pilXOaAc
2:56 good news for the next generation. Remove the entrenched workers.
Once growth resumes….short handed firms scramble for new blood.
What I find ironic is that people on either end of the continuum are both unhappy with their lot in life. Both ultra liberals and hardcore conservatives are ready to burn the whole thing down. Just because they feel their interests are not being represented.
Ex,
People are having kids later as well as assisting adult children longer. Throwing people out at 50 used to be thought of as ok bc kids are out of house. Today, many 50 year olds have kids in middle school or adult kids still at home. It ain’t same times. I wonder if companies get it.
That leaves everybody in the middle with the unenviable task of somehow moderating these two outlying groups of malcontents.
We were 36/37 before having our kiddo.
Little did I know what changes were in store!
In retrospect I love the fact that we waited. We got to be a broke
couple together. We got to move around the Country with little regard for schools.
Life was pretty good. When we were ready it was one and done. Had a great kiddo and now it’s an empty nest.
Nice market close.
Ex,
We waited forever too. Didn’t think we were going to have number two either, but what the heck. I was 34 when Jr. was born. And an old man when D was born at 42. Wanted to be financially secure. Good thing too as the D would have bankrupted us for sure. Even with insurance and not counting my premiums, I still paid 66K in medical expenses for him alone last year.
Wow, only 260 points away from testing new lows on the nasty. Wasn’t someone talking about the greatest October ever a couple of days ago? You know, the guy with the patience of a Mayfly. I guess the Great Pumpkin did not show up on Halloween again.
Won’t be sold on DeSantis, sorry. He comes across like a douche, and this wouldn’t even be a conversation if he didn’t have the opportunity to co-opt Trump’s cult of personality (he clearly has none of his own). He’s a product of the era, he didn’t shape it.
re: He comes across like a douche..
Pick your douche…….One may be Orange but this one could be blood red.
As I have jokingly mentioned previously. Ron DeSantis was a JAG lawyer at Guantanamo Bay in 2006 when water boarding, sexual abuse, beatings, and other forms of torture were rampant. His job was to prevent it…..Our last president with Military experience was GWB and he started two trillion dollar clusterfuck wars. Not to say Obama was much better. Middle East is still as massive warzone.
“Here’s the problem with the bond market. Inflation and growth and an anemic economy point to lower rates. For decades rates have been abnormally low because of massive debt a secular deflation and excess reserves accumulated by sovereigns. With cash flows stagnant prices higher particularly if your non discretionary purchases are being made with a collapsed currency we have a massive dollar shortage and reserves that were accumulated over decades ; are now being depleted. Between Japan and China alone 1.4 trillion. That’s a lot of supply . So bond fundamentals are solid but bonds are experiencing a credit liquidation cycle. Ordinarily I’d be all in long but I’ve studied credit liquidation cycles. The most severe example was General Motors . In 1929 General Motors reached a high of 256 . In 1932 with earnings and sales up 12 fold and in the heart of the depression it hit a low of 8. Credit liquidation cycles are intense . I am wanting to increase my long position which is now very minimal but I am being super cautious”
“Clearly the other side of the Japan and China trade are more than happy to trade zero duration bonds (usd/euro$) for treasuries or else market would go zero bid… on our shore, the FED’s cpi fear trade is working as planned… covid was and now inflation fear…”
“I disagree with the approach to combating inflation. If inflation was created by this supposedly huge printing of dollars that the equity ignoramuses believe than wouldn’t there be a glut of dollars? Makes sense. But there isn’t a glut of dollars there is a shortage of dollars? Yes equity ignoramuses and wouldn’t the dollar be weak if so many were printed. But wait the dollar is off the charts strong . I’m embarrassed I’m from the equity side. We have supply chain issues being repaired inflation is history shortly. Don’t start me on the inverted yield curve. Beyond amazing to me how dumb so many are on Wall Street. When I came to Wall Street young I couldn’t believe how unintelligent so many were”
ARKK 2 Nov 2022 Buy TWLO TWILIO INC 54,742 0.0482
$78 to $52 per share in two days
1.5 million….and it’s GONE!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
Juice: Israel just elected a far right government, the first time ever. That could make the situation in the Middle East even more complicated and dangerous. On the other hand, this was the 5 election in less than 4 years so the new government may not last one.
His job was to prevent it…..
and he didn’t! That’s all you need to know.
It is too late to call out biggest bs statement of day by Jim
Hah, sure Jim. I hear they really reign in spending except WS bailouts, unfunded wars, unchecked military budgets and tax cuts that go on credit card. They are tough on debt ceiling…when Ds take office. They really care
“they all blame the Republicans for trying to rein in spending”
What a great piece of news. I bet the Ketchup is hitting the walls.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/judge-appoints-independent-monitor-oversee-trump-organization-financia-rcna55492
Tick Tick Gary!
https://twitter.com/NextGenAmerica/status/1588248219904925696
This comes down to the Dems are getting out the vote, how successful will the GOP be at suppressing it.
Something some people will never understand. Fast Eddie drills it in, but some people still don’t get it.
“I was in Philadelphia this week talking to a builder active in the Northeast. We talked about how this region is the most boring of all. Little chance to overbuild given land constraints but demand is down & builders are willing to offer incentives or price cuts #NYC #DC #Philly”
https://twitter.com/aliwolfecon/status/1572988814565707776?s=46&t=4Cnc7x53M0isLws4Qiyw-g
“I know someone who manages the Southwest US of a very large mortgage company (pulled way over a million in bonus). Its already slowed to a crawl, big lay offs and gonna be at least 5 years before recovery. In broader terms, many others will be laid off to as well. Not peachy”
Joe Rogan admitted that the story he shared last month about a school installing litter boxes in the bathroom was not true
On October 12, the podcaster told a former congresswoman that a school a friend’s wife worked at had installed the boxes for ‘a girl who’s a furry’
Such claims have been widely circulated in recent weeks as part of a conservative talking point in the culture war over gender and school bathrooms
While Rogan acknowledged the rumors were false on Wednesday, Republican Senate candidate Don Boluc doubled down on them
Go Devils!
This comes down to the Dems are getting out the vote, how successful will the GOP be at suppressing it.
As Frank Luntz was explaining on CNN this morning, the paper ballots are counted after the machine voting is complete. He said, in places like Philadelphia, they are painfully slow in counting. So, after midnight, you will see the Republican lead dwindle in the wee hours.
See, this is a fucking issue. Who’s ensuring another box of ballots doesn’t miraculously appear? And all of sudden, lo and behold, 80% of those “newly discovered” mail-in ballots just happen to be for the democrat candidate. Just like in 2020, keep counting until the democrat wins. It’s bullshit. There’s no verification system. It’s a 3rd world approach when we have fucking apps for everything in our fucking lives expect for this process. The voting process can be gamed to the high heavens. Like 99% of every other democrat initiative, let’s destroy the integrity of yet another piece of classical America to ensure everyone is “included” in the process.
” the paper ballots are counted after the machine voting is complete” and thats the way the GOP designed it. They could have all the mail in ballots counted as they come in, but the GOP want to slow up the process so that people like you get all riled up when they are counted in Philly and lean Blue.
What you wont hear is any complaints about Florida, In fact they will be pushing to have every mail in ballot counted, as those overseas military ballots skew red.
lol, “lean Blue”. Did you know there was a district in Philly that went 100% blue in some elections? Not a single person even accidentally filled in a red box.
OK genius.
Jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 261,000 in October, unemployment rate rises to 3.7%
Fri, November 4, 2022 at 8:32 AM
The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October as the Federal Reserve pressed on with the central bank’s most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades.
This is good for market now..right?
On the paper and voting machine ballot counting. Prior to the elections, party members can choose to send volunteers to the tallying sites to witness the count. Dems, academic in nature, do a thorough job making sure they have witnesses at all of major counting sites. I know, because a close friend of ours heads the local chapter and always asks for volunteers.
I recall in the 2020 general, MAGA fools were protesting tallying sites with regularity and were upset when the poll workers and witnesses covered the windows with paper. Sorry, but laws matter and are one of the few things that keep our elections fair. If your party is too stupid to know election laws, then they deserve to be locked out. Then again, the party of stupid already announced they won’t accept the results of elections, prior to them occurring.
Now, I’m not advocating for one side or the other here. But I do know that poll workers and volunteer election boards bend over backwards to maintain fairness and accuracy. At least this is the case in California where I work with them. The pseudo science the right rallied around during the 2020 election was such a crock of hooey, again it was embarrassing to anyone who actually cared to research how these ballot tallies worked. And remember, there is no more likely to be fraud from one party than the other. As a matter of fact, I would expect the fraud to be more likely to come from the party that simply makes sh1t up so frequently.
Fat Eddie,
How dare you challenge the way that daddy’s GOP plans to win election?
One of the big daddy’s MAGA crowd issue is to switch from machine to all paper ballots in all elections. Ex Nay on the paper ballot issue.
PS. Putin sent us a few free industrial size ballot printers, he says he will be able to create the the pre-fill ballots from his Moscow laptop.
“See, this is a fucking issue. Who’s ensuring another box of ballots doesn’t miraculously appear? And all of sudden, lo and behold, 80% of those “newly discovered” mail-in ballots just happen to be for the democrat candidate. Just like in 2020, keep counting until the democrat wins. It’s bullshit. There’s no verification system. It’s a 3rd world approach when we have fucking apps for everything in our fucking lives expect for this process. The voting process can be gamed to the high heavens. Like 99% of every other democrat initiative, let’s destroy the integrity of yet another piece of classical America to ensure everyone is “included” in the process.”
1Y 479, touched 485
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQE0LQFFn3s
“This is good for market now..right?”
Wrong, By.
We need to hear that the economy is slowing and job loss is increasing. Otherwise, inflation won’t be stopped. We need people to fear for their jobs so they will curtail spending. And every time the economy shows less of a sign of slowing down. The likelihood of the FED overshooting their tightening increases. Headwinds continue to worsen and this time we are starting at near market lows. My 7,750 (and 7,500 prediction on the overshoot) prediction, might just come true. Then I retire without a care in the world.
Ed: the problem I have with these comments is that it is exactly what the Chinese, Russians and Iranians want us to think. Casting doubt on the fairness of elections cuts right at the heart of the integrity of the country. Just remember, it is harder to cheat in 2022 than any other time in our history. It is the same thing with crime. That is why soft-on-crime policies are so maddening. It is much harder to get away with being undetected do anything than ever before……..
Fast Eddie says:
November 4, 2022 at 6:54 am
See, this is a fucking issue. Who’s ensuring another box of ballots doesn’t miraculously appear? And all of sudden, lo and behold, 80% of those “newly discovered” mail-in ballots just happen to be for the democrat candidate. Just like in 2020, keep counting until the democrat wins. It’s bullshit. There’s no verification system. It’s a 3rd world approach when we have fucking apps for everything in our fucking lives expect for this process. The voting process can be gamed to the high heavens. Like 99% of every other democrat initiative, let’s destroy the integrity of yet another piece of classical America to ensure everyone is “included” in the process.
Crude is up 5% to 92 and change. We haven’t been there since August 29th.
It is much harder to get away with being undetected doing anything than ever before…….
“1.5 million….and it’s GONE!”
The father’s face in the final frame of that South Park link is exactly the look most of CW’s rubes have when approaching investment. Probably could pass as a portrait of our very own…
adding to Stu: terminal rate for the Fed priced at 520 (we are at 375-400). The rule of thumb (FWIW) is that the market will not bottom in earnest until the Fed pivot. The “pivot” is a crock. The Fed will raise and stop. The market is forward looking. It is giving us a reading on Spring 2023 conditions. So where will the economy bottom? Next summer? fall? 2024? Just remember, everyone under 40 has never seen conditions like this in their adult lives. How will actors respond? Lots to consider……
Bystander says:
November 4, 2022 at 9:32 am
This is good for market now..right?
Re: the Trump court appointed overseer…
The Left is going to cheer because of embedded TDS but any citizen ought to be seriously mortified by these actions – especially those who identify with the philosophies traditionally associated with the Left…
Based solely on allegations of civil wrong doing – unproven and pretrial – the government has effectively taken control of a private entity…What country are we living in?
The action is even worse when one considers that there is no ‘harmed’ party produced here…there is no concern of imminent danger to any one in particular, let alone the populace in general…
On this precept State Courts could be allowed to effectively shut any business down without trial or hearing. Anywhere, anytime simply by making an allegation…
One could, for example, easily use the standard of the Court – “extreme prejudice to the People of the State” – to instill an overseer for any social media company. Candidly I would think it much easier to argue TWTR or FB presents more of a risk of causing extreme prejudice to the people of the state of NY than any action that may or may not be taken by the Trump Organization.
It’s astounding…I mean I get the guy is an asshole but are we seriously cheering one political individual with the full power of the State seizing without trial private property?
Keep cheering as you surrender your rights…
ChiFi,
Frank Luntz was talking about Pennsylvania specifically. He says Florida has all votes counted the night of the election and was asking why it takes days and sometimes weeks to have the PA votes counted. How do you have accuracy without consistency? Luntz says long vote-counting times kill public trust in U.S. elections. And papering over windows just adds fuel to the fire.
“This comes down to the Dems are getting out the vote, how successful will the GOP be at suppressing it….”
Fairly presumptive to believe that line is Democrat given the location and the identifying materials on some of the individuals…
And on ‘suppressing’ the vote, yes, someone ought to check the strident chick around 0:15 on the video…because unless she is fervently explaining how to work a voting machine politicking within a certain radius of a voting place is generally prohibited.
But, hey, among the Left what’s rule of law when the end is all that is important regardless of the means?
Well if I “were” a fucking criminal I would surrender my rights.
Trump – if he were not “rich” would be behind bars by now.
I think those with TDS … Trump DickSucking Syndrome – that still defend him are insufferable.
Because different states have different laws?
You should really turn in your Federalist Society membership card, and your MAGA secret decoder pen.
GOP controlled PA legislature specifically forced through a bill that REQUIRED mailed ballots to be counted AFTER regular voting ends prior to the 2020 election.
FL has a fun case. Desantis is dead set against making voting easier for anybody. Unless it’s his votes. He expanded mail in and early voting in areas hit by the recent hurricane. They just happen to lean heavily his way. You can’t spell hypocrite without an R.
While there have been some minor reforms, civil asset forfeiture still happens all the time and it’s outrageous that anything close to this is acceptable in a alleged free country. Some random links:
https://www.aclu.org/issues/criminal-law-reform/reforming-police/asset-forfeiture-abuse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhAa2vep1z0
leftwing says:
November 4, 2022 at 9:55 am
Lmao
“Follow the Fed? Never forget the Fall of 2021, when Fed Governors suddenly decided, in a Nostradamus move, that it was unethical for they themselves to hold and to trade in stocks.”
I agree Left. But Trump creates his own misfortune by flaunting laws so frequently. Quite frankly, he refuses to follow established laws every chance he can. Whether it be confidential White House information, papers necessary for audits to be performed, etc.
Whenever a brother gets beat down by the cops, a lot of blue collar white folk like to say, if he didn’t get caught speeding, he would have never gotten the beatdown. Well, if the MAGA Chief just did what the government asked him to do, there would be no need for a monitor.
Though again, I agree that the court is focusing on the wrong sh1t and is overstepping their bounds.
I am much more concerned about the way ultra wealthy individuals buy both elections and companies which influence elections. The amount of money the top three campaign contributors have spent is morally irreprehensible.
Seems like both parties claim their elections are being stolen, or their opponent is plotting to steal elections. Republican claim Dems are letting the dead, illegals, criminals vote, or allowing for repeat voting, and then Trump is the worst with conspiracies of invented electronic votes, hacking, bags of fake ballots, whatever. Dems claim that the Republicans are intimidating or blocking voting, making it too hard for their illiterates, homeless, or ID-less voters from being represented, as if the KKK is showing up with shotguns at minority-heavy voting locations.
Both Trump and Stacey Abrams look like fools when they claim they were the rightful winners.
The main thing I worry about with the heavier use of absentee voting ahead of time is that late developments in elections get negated. Lots of people vote before debates even happen. Though I assume most of those voters had already made up their minds. I see people saying they’d rather vote for a brain dead Fetterman than a live Oz, for example.
Chatter out there that Trump will be announcing his intention to run shortly after the midterms.
Thanks Chi and Lib. I was being sarcastic. I would think market tanks with this data, like it would have 3-4 months ago. Now, there seems to be impenetrable levitation mode.
Oz is going to be a disaster.
Ex got it right yesterday. I’d take a braindead politician over one who has been caught lying about medical information to personally profit time and time again.
Again, the bigger issue is the lack of quality candidates. But this too is not surprising. Since we don’t hold any of our corrupt and self-indulgent politicians responsible for their immoral and illegal actions, then of course new politicians will be minted from criminals who see the immunity that these positions provide. I mean fcuk. Where else can one trade on inside information, get sweetheart loans, turn campaign funding into personal charity and not have to face jail time for committing heinous white collar crimes.
There was never going to be a Fed pivot as I have been saying since mid summer. And some out there don’t understand the difference between a pivot and a pause. I agree with Chgo s analysis, the Fed continues to raise rates, albeit perhaps in smaller increments, and then they will pause and wait and see until the increases have made their way through the economy. I don’t see any pivot as in lowering rates until at least 2024.
Bystander,
The market is not rational in the short-term. It is often propped up by psychology. Right now, there is no place to make money. Funds, a former safe haven in times of market turmoil got crushed. Housing, a familiar asset to shift your money into is about to get crushed. With the additional issue of inflation reducing one’s asset simultaneously to the overall equities markets, people are hungry to make money and are willing to take greater risk than they should. This will create the market levitation you see. It’s even worse between earnings seasons when the analysts systematically lower their expectations, but the market floats upwards. Then earnings are reported and the lower numbers drive stock prices further downward.
So in the short-term, marketing, psychology and other irrational behaviors drive stock prices. In the long-term, earnings drive stock prices. Morons, like Pumpkin here, try to profit off of the unpredictable short-term movements which are not fundamentally driven. This is gambling and for the most part, just attempts to play momentum moves. The REAL problem with this is that you often miss most of the move before you notice it and the reversion to mean due to actual fundamentals, will wipe you out. Just ask CW.
3B,
Agree on FED positioning. Lowering rates quickly would just cause the same overheated economy. If we build a future on a much less debt-laden structure, the long-term growth might start slow, but should yield amazing long-term results. Best of all, it would benefit Main Street and not just Wall Street.
Lib: As you and Chgo have noted there is a generation out there that have not lived through an inflationary/ rate increase environment. They seem unable to grasp the new reality, and no matter what Jerome says they still don’t/ won’t believe him. Of course a big reason for that is the Fed s credibility is to blame for that as well. But, this generation can’t seem to accept that it appears the Fed is not playing now. It still amazes me that an effort to get back to real rates is causing all this outcry and concerns of something breaking, and Armageddon. People partied and gorged on fake low rates for a decade; the party is over.
I seem to recall a bunch of claims in 2016 about Putin possibly hacking machines. Both sides make crap up. The best thing you could do to shut republicans up is to actually have voter IDs and run grassroots programs to ensure everyone actually has one.
There is no proof that there is anything with our current election practices. The amount of fraud is minimal and when the tallies are close, they do a revote. Not sure where all this kerfuffle is coming from, besides people loving controversy.
anything (wrong). Sorry.
Not sure where all this kerfuffle is coming from, besides people loving controversy.
Require a voter ID number and the controversy ends. Write your ID number on the mail in ballot, sign it and send it in. Or, open the app on your laptop or phone.
End of story.
re:” both parties claim their elections are being stolen”
Ding Ding We have a winner.
BRT,
The Democrats say voter IDs are racist!
The party that seems to be in favor of all sorts of bureaucracy, has this one exception where they want minimum bureaucracy when it comes to verifying voters. No wonder Republicans are suspicious.
It is racist and purely political. And you are kidding yourselves if you don’t realize this. It’s no less political than being against mail-in ballots.
But since you are letting your politics come in front of your ability to reason with common sense, I will briefly explain what you already know, but are willing to look like a complete fool in denying.
blacks, as a percent of the population, are the poorest. Poor people can’t afford cars, so they don’t get driver’s licenses. It’s a pain in the ass to take the bus everywhere, so they often don’t vote since they would have to bus to their election location. In blacker states, Republicans have reduced the polling places to make it harder for blacks to vote. This is why they are so adamantly against mail-in ballots. Now looky here. Mail in ballots don’t require no bus fare ya hear?
What is the one piece of ID that you are carrying. Your driver’s license. You got it to drive, not to vote. Kapeesh?
It’s all politics. And it looks really stupid when you try to play it off like it’s not.
It’s really quite a feat that 50 different states and thousands of precincts were able to close any and all potential vulnerabilities in the election systems of all the states. This midterm election should run very smooth, and no outrageous claims of voter fraud in any of the contested elections like the Georgia senate race will happen.
BTW sleepy Joe says they can codify the “Birthing Person’s Health Protection Act” (cannot call it “Women’s Health Protection Act” anymore because you know men can get pregnant now) with only two more senate seats!!! Wow, I gather they really do plan to NUKE the filibuster and rule for 60 votes for cloture..
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1588305048626495489?cxt=HHwWgoC8pdnB5YosAAAA
What’s next? A requirement to swim a lap in an olympic-sized pool to get to the voting machine? It’s only fair. We all can swim.
Lib – No document required to show up to a polling place to vote? So I can show up in Glen Ridge on election day and vote as you because they will never ask for ID?
It’s more nuanced than just a drivers license BTW. 35 states have voter ID laws at the polling places, but about 20 of those allow for other non-photo ID documents and only 8 require a photo ID. Georgia being one of those states.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx
America has really slipped into the abyss. It’ll be one unaffordable shitstorm of political unrest. Mexico might need their own wall pretty soon!
Voting is overrated anyway. The parties have so much control of who you get to choose it as if you really have no choice at all. It like going to a wedding and only having a choice of fish (tilapia) or chicken (marsala)…. Neither are very appetizing, especially after you got all dressed up and are giving a nice gift too.
Require … [insert whatever]… and the controversy ends.
No chance, the controversy will live on forever
Lol ‘2000 Mules’ producers arrested……
Should make for some red meat for election day even if it was a federal Texas judge that issued the warrant..
“Require a voter ID number and the controversy ends. Write your ID number on the mail in ballot, sign it and send it in. Or, open the app on your laptop or phone.”
Eddie, this is how it is done NOW.
Mail in ballots get mailed to a registered voter at their address. The completed ballot gets mailed (or dropped off) in the envelope that comes with your ballot. That envelope has a barcode or number on it- that barcode/number is unique to that ballot. Fast Eddy’s ballot envelope has a unique number, OC1’s ballot has a unique number…
When the bureau of elections receives the completed ballot they scan that barcode and log it in. They now have a record that they received fast eddy’s or OC1’s or whoevers completed ballot. Try to vote again in person on election day and they’ll tell you “hey, you already voted”!
That’s why the idea that they can just add boxes of fake ballots if they need them on election night is so idiotic- the board of electors knows exactly how many ballots they received, and who they received them from.
Start tallying fake ballots and the numbers won’t add up- and it will be very obvious.
11:56 exactly.safeguards are in place.
Eddie, this is how it is done NOW.
News to me. I can show up and be anybody I please. Nobody ever asked me for ID.
“Yeah, that’s me… um… John Smith. No, not that John Smith, the one below it.”
Meanwhile, I’ll be back to vote later as the other John Smith.
Why are you responding about in person voting after commenting about mail in ballots?
“News to me. I can show up and be anybody I please. Nobody ever asked me for ID.”
So it’s the in-person ballots you have a problem with now? The ones that tend to go heavily republican? OK.
Have you actually tried to do that? Try to register and vote under a false name? Give it a shot and let us know how it goes.
Even if you could do it, it would be very, very difficult to do it at the scale you’d need to to influence a national election.
BTW last time I voted in person in NJ they asked for ID.
I’m the one out of the market….only have DNA and ETH. I’m the gambler?!
Who are the people day trading? Why don’t you call them out? That’s why the market is a casino in the short term….day traders using leverage. They pushed it all the way up, and then they pushed it all the way down on pure momentum psychology.
“So in the short-term, marketing, psychology and other irrational behaviors drive stock prices. In the long-term, earnings drive stock prices. Morons, like Pumpkin here, try to profit off of the unpredictable short-term movements which are not fundamentally driven. This is gambling and for the most part, just attempts to play momentum moves. The REAL problem with this is that you often miss most of the move before you notice it and the reversion to mean due to actual fundamentals, will wipe you out. Just ask CW.”
Dead people don’t vote by mail right? Reality is they do, they found four ballots in Georgia in 2020, not 5000 like Trump claimed…
Look Hillary to this day still claims the 2016 election was stolen and Trump was an illegitimate president because she got 2.8 million more popular votes. Al Gore claims he won Florida too with zero proof he did. Trump is no different he claims he won even though he lost by 7 million popular votes.
Divided we stand this election.
There will be a pivot when something breaks in the economy. Keep it simple, dude. Only a matter of time. These are people’s lives we are talking about…this won’t be stretched out long-term like “The Great Depression.” They didn’t know any better back then, but now they do…and they will act on it. Guaranteed.
3b says:
November 4, 2022 at 10:30 am
There was never going to be a Fed pivot as I have been saying since mid summer. And some out there don’t understand the difference between a pivot and a pause. I agree with Chgo s analysis, the Fed continues to raise rates, albeit perhaps in smaller increments, and then they will pause and wait and see until the increases have made their way through the economy. I don’t see any pivot as in lowering rates until at least 2024.
No pivot, this is it folks the new normal. They are resolute in not printing more money to buy UST and Fannie and Freddie bonds, to get our from under the mountain of paper started under Bernanke. The amount they bought since 2008 is something only a criminal enterprise could dream of they literally electronically created 9 Trillion dollars out of thin air to prop up housing and the US government’s out of control budgets. It will take decades to unwind this, a generation will come and go..
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
No pivot…..sure. Tell me another one. That’s the Fed’s role. They will come to the rescue every single time something breaks in the economy.
Who are the people day trading? Why don’t you call them out? That’s why the market is a casino in the short term….day traders using leverage. They pushed it all the way up, and then they pushed it all the way down on pure momentum psychology.
Dude, this is why we begged you to post your buys. We knew you doing so at all would result in non-stop L’s. It’s been 2 years straight of being wrong every single time for you. Meanwhile, we post trades in real time and it’s been win over win for 12 months straight now. There’s a reason for that. The market trend is in our direction and we were right with our reasoning behind it.
Two things you don’t realize…1. being in cash, you are still gambling…gambling the dollar is your ultimate safe haven asset.
2. Being short is a hedging/portfolio strategy that allows you to preserve wealth in downturns.
Brt,
Are you serious? Are you really going to beat me up for being a long-term investor in a serious bear market? I got out way early, what else did you want me to do?
How well did you do from 2009 to 2021? Let’s focus on that. Did buying silver and gold help you?
Just remember, way back in 2016 or 2017….you called me out. You asked what was my recommendation? I said to buy all the apple and amazon that you could while people were bashing them as over….yea, how did that work out? Awesome call by pumps…of course the clowns on here ignore that. Just like they ignored and mock my calls to buy housing from 2012-2020 before it would blow up and it did. I said it was free money, take out as much as the bank will allow and buy cheap housing. You guys laughed…
“Look Hillary to this day still claims the 2016 election was stolen and Trump was an illegitimate president because she got 2.8 million more popular votes. Al Gore claims he won Florida too with zero proof he did. Trump is no different he claims he won even though he lost by 7 million popular votes.”
No, there is a difference. Hillary and Gore both conceded that they lost. They did not egg on their followers to storm the capitol and “fix” the election. Neither one has created a political cult centered on false election claims…
Juice,
4 ballots are not going to change an election. As a matter of fact, there would be a run-off(?) election if the results are very close. Regardless of what HRC said, or Gore said. To this day, Trump is the only president in the history of the US to not concede an election. Like I said earlier. He flaunts tradition and ignores laws. He simply makes shit up. I never saw anything like it. And the fact people eat this up is disturbing. He’s like the king of all dickheads and yet people love it. I’m quite an optimist and really do love my enemies. But the ignorance in this country is saddening. The lack of collective intelligence is disturbing.
Juice: That is exactly correct, accept it’s not the normal it’s just getting back to what it was, and should never have been changed after the initial financial crisis was stabilized.
Just remember, way back in 2016 or 2017….you called me out. You asked what was my recommendation? I said to buy all the apple and amazon that you could while people were bashing them as over….yea, how did that work out? Awesome call by pumps…of course the clowns on here ignore that. Just like they ignored and mock my calls to buy housing from 2012-2020 before it would blow up and it did. I said it was free money, take out as much as the bank will allow and buy cheap housing. You guys laughed…
Yes, you had 1 good call followed by bad call after bad call. And then you claimed you capitalized on that call not by buying those stocks but indexes that had them. Wow…who wasn’t holding SPY at that point? What happens when you go up 100% and then down 75%?
Notable picks by you.
ARK at 140
ARKG at 79
DNA at 12
BTC at 50k
Eth at 4k
TSLA at $1200
12:33 its a disdain for intelligence of almost any kind. It’s almost like a love of the outlaw that existed when the Depression hit and banks were being robbed with villagers cheering. Sure, some of the outlaws tore up land mortgages, but really it was just robbery all the same. Nothing to cheer for. If we become enamored of the people who break laws, then we really don’t deserve nor will we get a civilized society.
I have watched the “Party of personal responsibility” evolve into some kind of lawless group of gun-toting mouth breathers no better than armed clans in any 3rd World Country.
Ex,
I think the real big danger vis a vis Mexico that all these nitwits grinding their way to an authoritarian/anarchic state miss is how soon the transformation occurs and how fast it becomes a criminal organized crime organization. And there is no putting the genie back in the bottle.
Most people don’t realize that the multiple State Police in Mexico are in many part the Mexican Cartel. If you become a member, they make you a trooper, or local cop.
Mexico was a one part state -the PRI. All criminal and business activities went thru the party and everyone was taken care of. It was the Gorbachev of Mexico – Pres. Ernesto Zedillo that refused to do the “Dedazo” or point the finger to the next PRI president and actual free and fair elections occurred and Vicente Fox got elected. Those deals that the PRI made and enforce the peace went out the window, and now you got the anarchic violence.
Sooner or later all these private militias popping all over the place will feel powerful enough to start “taxing” businesses aka – extortion and shakedowns outside of real government just like all ethnic mobs have done, its actually their bread and butter.
Right now those extortioneers feel like the link below.
https://youtu.be/_Gsz7Gu6agA
But what happens if they are able to be like this link below.
https://youtu.be/Yu-ZPs3MY6I
Remember, Carlos Marcello – New Orleans mob boss helped the UAW organize their Ford Dallas plant. Ford hire local goons that kept putting the organizers in the hospital. Well Marcello took care of those goons.
Well, the Wal Mart heirsl, the Koch brothers, Peter Thiel and other assorted Ayn Randian billionaires are going to find themselves hemmed in by organized crime instead of the elected government. Deals with organized crime are always more expensive and unpredictible.
How well did you do from 2009 to 2021? Let’s focus on that. Did buying silver and gold help you?
If you had any memory, which you don’t, you would know that I stopped buying gold/silver in 2008. I bought dividend stocks and indexes at the bottom, and you can go back and fish for those posts if you really want to. Very boring investor and let compounding do it’s thing. You can’t talk crap. I’ve posted non-stop wins in real time for 36 months straight.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 25, 2022 at 3:40 pm
Bystander,
One day you are going to wake up and realize the real estate market wasn’t driven by rates. It was driven by more demand than the market could handle. The doom and gloom in the air might put a hold on prices going up, but it’s inevitable it will go up due to a huge supply of new millennial buyers coming to the market over the next couple years.
So it can drop right now due to the economic climate, but as soon as it turns, housing going to run hard.
Jim Says,
A little walk down memory lane, wrong again Pumps. Housing Will go down for the next 2-3 years, I was there when Paul Volker slammed rates upward. I do think this will make men out of a lot of boys who are now snowflakes.
BRT,
You beat me up for long-term calls on a short-term basis. Think about that for a second. You blasting me for investing in innovative high growth tech at a time when the Fed has been pulling the rug out from them. This is no different than mocking me for my long-term real estate calls from 2012-2020. You guys mocked me the entire time and then were left looking like clowns. I was dead on correct.
re: Trump did not concede the election?
You are not entitled to make up facts here is his concession from Jan 7th…as reported by the news as well as his on social media posts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYKkQ3BOo_E
Jim,
The rate increases are unheard of. Stop with the bs. Most of the time, the rates don’t matter, the demand is what matters. Right now is an anomaly based on the past 40 years….so stop with the bs.
In case you don’t understand. We had low rates from for over a decade…why didn’t real estate move? Oh right, there was no demand, because the millennials were not yet in position to buy houses. They were pushed back a decade and then they finally arrived and overheated the damn market with their intense competition. That’s the damn truth, but keep thinking low rates were responsible for this run. Learn a thing or two before you come at me.
Remember the Fed’s Fund rate is only 1/2 of the equation. Again for everyone here. Half of the reason why mortgages were priced so low is because the Fed was bidding at the Fed’s NY desk] Fannie and Freddie bonds lower and cornering the market. To get back to 3% mortgages again, they will need to fire up the printing presses again for years and years. There is a possibility we will never see 3% mortages again in our lifetimes. Party is over folks, and the hangover for housing is here.
Understand this, Jim. It’s the truth.
“The doom and gloom in the air might put a hold on prices going up, but it’s inevitable it will go up due to a huge supply of new millennial buyers coming to the market over the next couple years.
So it can drop right now due to the economic climate, but as soon as it turns, housing going to run hard.”
Jim: You are right there was Millenial demand for housing, but what really fueled the demand was ultra low fake interest rates. We were also told Millenials have lots of cash, dual income couple they can pay high prices, and blah , blah blah. Well now rates are up, and the demand is gone? Why, We were told Millenials have lots of cash and high paying jobs, rate increases should not matter. We were told Millenials are tired of living in their parents basement or cramped apartments, are they not tired of it now? What about starting families? Did they stop starting families? And on we can go. The point is as you know, ultra low rates drove the demand to a frenzy. It was a bubble, the rest is all BS.
Come talk to me when deflation becomes a serious headwind (hurricane type).
“There is a possibility we will never see 3% mortages again in our lifetimes.”
Guess again, Pumps, when rates went to virtual zero all hell broke loose. The rate increases are not unheard of, history repeats itself. Those rates hit 16% and real estate market dropped with it.. When you get to my league I will let you know, your not even close, dreaming doesn’t count.
I never had a grammy giving me any house, You are the snowflake I am referring to.
Maybe you should take a history lesson Pumpy. LOL
“You are not entitled to make up facts here is his concession from Jan 7th…as reported by the news as well as his on social media posts.”
Not much of a concession. Didn’t hear him say “the american people have spoken…”, just an acknowledgement that congress certified the election, and a new administration will be taking over.
Still refuses to admit he lost fair and square. Still endorses candidates pushing his election lies.
But I’ll give it to you- probably the most we can expect from Trump.
Would have been nice if he had said it before the attempted coup, though.
lol, 5 years ago you were like “there’s no stopping housing prices, everyone can afford them”, yesterday you were like “they can’t drop 20%, how would they tread water?”.
My response to that is…exactly
Libturd says:
November 4, 2022 at 12:33 pm
Juice,
To this day, Trump is the only president in the history of the US to not concede an election.
Well another “fact” that was wrong. Throw the crap out and see what sticks. LOL
BTW last time I voted in person in NJ they asked for ID.
Great. No one ever asked me. Also, how do you check that the mail-in ballots are legitimate? Who’s ID’ing who? By the way, as for in person voting, Hudson County has a famous motto: Vote early, vote often. I bet many urban areas feel the same. Back to mail-in ballots… harvesting doesn’t exist in the inner cities, right? Not enough to sway an election, true?
OC1 – re: “Still refuses to admit he lost fair and square.”
As if he was the only one to claim the presidency was stolen? Both sides have done this many times in the past.
Gore in 2000, 2004 Kerry’s people said many times that the election was stolen too, the voting machines were tampered with and owned by Republicans stirring up the same kind of conspiracy that happened in 2020. Same with Hillary in 2016, and she is bitter to this day for sure, she has stated many times in interviews 2016 election was stolen.
Look I don’t want Trump around at all his toxic drama was bad enough when he was in office but the reality is what it is, he has a following. Hopefully he won’t run and will fade off like Hillary has who won’t remain quiet either to this day.
Oh, and by the way, suburban women who vote Republican are like roaches who vote for Raid. That’s what some TV hostess said a few days ago. You know, from the party of tolerance.
Jim, I stand corrected. Still, January 7th? He wouldn’t even call his MAGA freaks to back down from the Capitol invasion until Biden forced him too.
Whatever. People have the right to follow whomever they choose. Some people will choose David Koresh to David Bowie. Just don’t complain when the president fondles your children (or is that Biden)?
BRT/ Jim: It’s funny to see people out there who were cheering on the madness, claiming this is a capitalist system, and there are winners and losers, and that’s just the way it is. Now we are getter back to normal real rates, and those same capitalist cheerleaders on the way up, are crying for a Fed pivot, as in lowering rates. It’s the old saying capitalist on the way up, socialist on the way down.
“As if he was the only one to claim the presidency was stolen? Both sides have done this many times in the past. ”
Kerry and Hillary conceded the day after the election; Gore conceded after the SC ruled on Florida. They all did what presidential losers normally do- conceded they lost, called the winner to congratulate him, etc.
Depending on the election, some prominent dems complained about voter suppression, Russian interference, etc.
But none of those candidates ever claimed that the vote tallies themselves were fraudulent, or that massive voter fraud was the reason they lost.
IMO, there is a simple difference between the dems and repubs today.
In the dem party, the whacko conspiracy nut job types are ensconed off to the side in their own little wing of the asylum.
But in the repub party they’re running the place.
Juice: Chatter saying Trump will announce mid November.
Let me say it for ChiFi this time.
“Boing.”
Kashkari of the Fed says October job reports shows why more rate hikes are needed.
1:57 my tolerance for stupidity is really low.
I told you the litter box story was horseshit,
Yet somehow you, you stupid fuck, continued to repeat it.
That’s what I see when I look at your team. Gullible idiots
looking for fairytales to support their skewed worldview.
Oh, and by the way, suburban women who vote Republican are like roaches who vote for Raid. That’s what some TV hostess said a few days ago. You know, from the party of tolerance.
Where does this mention litter boxes?
Give me a break….again, the rates were low for a long time. I refinanced in 2015 for a 2.75 rate. Why wasn’t real estate going crazy then? Oh right, there wasn’t enough demand to create an intense competition to drive up prices.
Jim says:
November 4, 2022 at 1:21 pm
Guess again, Pumps, when rates went to virtual zero all hell broke loose. The rate increases are not unheard of, history repeats itself. Those rates hit 16% and real estate market dropped with it.. When you get to my league I will let you know, your not even close, dreaming doesn’t count.
I never had a grammy giving me any house, You are the snowflake I am referring to.
Maybe you should take a history lesson Pumpy. LOL
How are these normal rates? Do you understand how debt works? You think these are normal rates based on the debt out there and deflationary risks coming?
3b says:
November 4, 2022 at 2:12 pm
BRT/ Jim: It’s funny to see people out there who were cheering on the madness, claiming this is a capitalist system, and there are winners and losers, and that’s just the way it is. Now we are getter back to normal real rates, and those same capitalist cheerleaders on the way up, are crying for a Fed pivot, as in lowering rates. It’s the old saying capitalist on the way up, socialist on the way down.
2:25 earlier rant from you stupid.
See you fools after the election. My work is done here.
Like blaming the activities of Paul Pelosi and his “friend” on MAGA? Does that ring a bell?
“Gullible idiots looking for fairytales to support their skewed worldview.”
BananaJoe:
LOL!
The Great Pumpkin says:
November 4, 2022 at 2:31 pm
How are these normal rates? Do you understand how debt works? You think these are normal rates based on the debt out there and deflationary risks coming?
The current rates are finally getting to what they should be. Rates were held artificially low for the last 20 years, all for keeping the economy heated up and the stock market high.
My parents saved all their lives and built a nest egg up to $500,000, just on hard work and banking the money. The last 20 years they got almost nothing in interest, now my Mom is in nursing home @97 years old and down to less than $50,000 in the bank. Savers were screwed, politicians all self serving.
Here is a chart showing how low we are, scroll down to savings account rates. Look @ federal funds rate. https://www.gobankingrates.com/banking/interest-rates/see-interest-rates-last-100-years/ Rates should have never ever gone this low, ever! Yes Pumpy I understand rates much better than you ever will… I lived it , and didn’t have my wife or a union to save me. You just have not lived long enough , and don’t understand history and economics.
Have a great weekend weirdos.
This should be the last real warm weekend of the year.
Lib,
Just curious did you pay your estimated for your multi? If not Joe’s crusaders will fine you. That will be a hefty fine.
Interesting to see the desperation and despondence that’s already set-in among the Dem stooges, even though the election is still a few days away and there’s a legit chance they’ll steal seats via big-city ballot harvesting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pennsy senate race drag into December (and the courts) as the Dems continue to ‘find’ votes in Philly. In any case, the Joy Behar-like whining, finger-pointing and outright lying, while par for the course from useless duds like Ex, OC and Flab, is particularly unbecoming of an otherwise solid poster like Lib.
Meant to comment on the later-in-life dads posts from a few days ago; kudos to you guys for being willing to tackle parenthood in your late 30’s/40’s, and happy for you that it worked out well. But with that, I think a vasectomy has to be part of every guy’s financial planning process — nothing beats the serenity of knowing that unplanned parenthood and child support are no longer in the picture.
Small: I know a couple of people who waited until their 50’s before having kid/s.
Dude, what is wrong with you? You are among if not the most rational liberal here…I guess you conceded your fiction on no concession, care to address these two? Seriously?
“4 ballots are not going to change an election. As a matter of fact, there would be a run-off(?) election if the results are very close.”
In what universe? Pray tell….
“But since you are letting your politics come in front of your ability to reason with common sense, I will briefly explain what you already know, but are willing to look like a complete fool in denying…What is the one piece of ID that you are carrying. Your driver’s license. You got it to drive, not to vote.”
So we are now waiving ID as a requirement to fly or enter a Federal building? News to me. I guess those are R conspiracies to disenfranchise minorities as well…
The ability to do either of the above has more impact on the majority of citizens than their ability to vote in the Presidential election….ie, it is not ‘racist’ or any other -ist to require ID for voting…
And here we go again with all the silliness of Fed speculation with the pendulum swinging wildly the other direction now…
A Fed cut in rates anytime soon is as much a fantasy as back-to-back 125/125 hikes were for June/July…
Fed is not cutting anytime soon. Which idiots with a microphone and camera are promoting this now?
As I said in the Spring on this topic and regarding “recession” do yourselves a favor and stop listening to people using words like “pivot” and “recession” in broad brushstrokes…most of these people don’t know what they themselves intend to say when using these terms…I’ve heard pivot used in about six different contexts so far meaning everything from a dovish statements to an outright cut by people who are established enough to know the value and need of specificity in words….
“In any case, the Joy Behar-like whining, finger-pointing and outright lying, while par for the course from useless duds…is particularly unbecoming of an otherwise solid poster like Lib.”
Thanks for distilling into fewer words the point I was trying to make at 4:41p….
Have a good night All.
Left: There was some other money manager or whatever this morning (forget the name and company) who said December will be the last hike and then political pressure will force the Fed to end hikes. I believe this speculation is exactly what the Fed is trying to squelch. I maintain the Fed won’t pivot and by that I mean raise rates until 2024. They may stop hiking by the Spring of 2023, and then they will sit back and wait for their medicine to work through the economy.
Right, that’s why it has brought the housing market to a standstill. That’s really normal.
Understand high rates are only needed when there is high inflation. Otherwise, everyone is going to buy bonds and the stock market capital inflow will come to a crawl. Aka investment in growing the economy will stop.
At the end of the day, if you think this inflation will last, I have a bridge to nowhere for sale.
“The current rates are finally getting to what they should be.”
3b,
The minute they stop raising rates is the pivot. It will come soon enough, they are breaking the economy as we speak. As soon as the break becomes visible, they will switch direction.
You’re so stupid. When someone buys a stock, someone else sells it. The company does not receive anything. On net, no additional money enters the stock market unless it’s an IPO or similar event. Companies large and small raise money via debt (bonds) all the time. Companies issued record number of bond offerings when interest rates were zero (and there were buyers, for some reason). Companies are less likely to issue bonds if they can avoid it when interest rates are higher.
You are so stupid.
Why do you think they lowered rates to zero? They were facing deflationary pressures and forced individuals to risk their money to try and grow the economy. Aka they didn’t want to make putting your money in safe low risk investments as an option. They were forcing people’s hand. I don’t make the rules, but I at least understand them.
Why did trump have to issue those huge tax cuts? Why?!! You prick.
Wake the f up before you insult me.
Tax cuts by their very nature create inflation. Raising taxes creates deflation. Understand this when reading my last post referencing trump tax cuts….huge tax cuts.
BTW, understand stocks and their impact on a company.
Tough to argue with someone when their point is understand this as if you didn’t just babble erroneous nonsense. You don’t even understand history from 40 years ago and purport to be a history teacher.
They lowered rates to zero among other things to prop up real estate and zombie companies… there were able to BORROW via bonds huge sums of money. They didn’t issue a lot of stock relatively speaking. Idiot
It’s unbelievable how literally everything you say is wrong. You’d think you would accidentally say something accurate once in a while.
Give him the benefit of the doubt. Some of the companies he likes have a business model where their primary business is issuing shares.
Lol…what exactly is wrong? You are clueless.
Why exactly do you think they lower and raise rates?
https://www.rawstory.com/dan-crenshaw-donald-trump/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
During his “Hold These Truths” podcast, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) told electoral reform advocate Nick Troiano that “behind closed doors” pro-Donald Trump lawmakers admit they know accusations of a stolen 2020 presidential election aren’t true and it is a continuing political stunt.
During the conversation with his guest, Crenshaw ripped into his colleagues for pushing the ‘Trump is a victim’ story, stating, “It was always a lie. The whole thing was always a lie. And it was a lie meant to rile people up.”
Cash is king!
Wu- CREAM
“This bear market is very similar to the 2000-2002 TMT bust!
Back then tech rolled over first (spring 2000) and tanked whereas the “old economy” stocks stayed firm until late 2000. In September 2000, the old economy joined the epic bust and $SPX declined 50%!
The Fed is driving the economy into the ground…M2 growth has collapsed, 10yr/2yr yield curve has been inverted since early July, Duncan Leading Indicator has flashed recession signal yet the Fed is still hiking like aggressively!
The unemployment rate is one of the most backward looking economic data (lagging) and the effects of this unprecedented monetary tightening (draining of liquidity) will be become evident in 2023.
Highly likely that the economy will get crushed and ALL stocks and risk assets…
…will get murdered!
The carnage in the high growth space is not occurring in a vacuum, this is just the prelude of what will happen to the indices over the following months!
This is an epic bear market and the economy is likely to get hammered in 2023.
After getting levered up in a world of ZIRP and QE, corporations and households cannot handle the unprecedented rise in interest rates (borrowing cost).
The massive contraction in the market caps of so many businesses risks creating a credit/liquidity crisis as companies…
…struggle to raise capital and fearful banks tighten their belts.
Even though I called this downturn in late 2021, I was wrong about the magnitude of this bear market.
Things are about to get ugly in the economy and risk assets are extremely vulnerable. Forward looking…
indicators are screaming murder yet the Fed and most ‘talking heads’ are focussing on backward looking economic data points (unemployment, inflation and GDP).
Highly likely this won’t end well, no risk asset is safe!”
What a f’ing opportunity. This might overtake DNA as my fav long-term bet on innovation. What a time to be alive with cash!!!
“It has been almost exactly one year since chief executive and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg made the bold maneuver of rebranding Facebook as Meta Platforms because he believed the future of the company was not in social media but the immersive, amorphous online realm known as the metaverse.
The decision to place so much faith in such an unproven premise will go down as one of the riskiest bets any corporation has ever made, no matter what happens next. But what’s happening now is bleak. It’s still not clear what might count as success, only that Meta is nowhere close to it—and the company has gone about getting there in the wrong way.
“You want to take big problems and break them down so that you have small wins and small losses,” said Sim Sitkin, the Michael W. Krzyzewski distinguished professor in leadership at Duke University.”
Not buying yet, but boy am I loading up the ammo. Going to strike when my mind is telling me that the economic climate is too black.
Lol…it might even be now. But going to have some patience in respect of lib.
Yup. Anyone else, pick some long-term individual winners.
“If I was a Billionaire (hell millionaire for that matter), I’d buy some index funds & sit my @$$ the f**k down
You’ve won that damn financial game at that point”