From CNBC:
U.S. single-family home prices slow again in September
U.S. single-family home prices slowed further in September as higher mortgage rates eroded demand, closely watched surveys showed on Tuesday.
The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index dropped 0.8% month-over-month in September. Monthly house prices fell in July for the first time since late 2018.
House prices rose 10.6% year-on-year in September, slowing from August’s increase of 12.9%.
The housing market has been hammered by aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by dampening demand in the economy.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. Though the rate retreated to an average of 6.58% last week, it remains well above the 3.10% average during the same period last year.
“As the Fed continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be more expensive and housing becomes less affordable,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a statement. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”
Data this month showed sales of previously owned homes logged their ninth straight monthly decline in October, while single-family homebuilding and permits for future construction dropped to the lowest levels since May 2020.
We’re finally seeing a seasonally adjusted dip, graph courtesy of calculated risk:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html
second
First first
Jim, glad to hear you had a good trip to Columbus. Haha, how did your grandson like the zam ride?
“Where’d the anti-union vitriol go???”
LOL, I’m just sitting in the cheap seats wolfing down popcorn watching a Democrat controlled Congress attempt to run over a union before the lame duck session expires with the aid of Scranton Joe.
I hope the irony of the government applying the yardstick of where “the economic impact of a shutdown would hurt millions of other working people and families” is not lost on anyone as I sit here a couple years after covid paying $2.50 per pepper and $3.00 per apple still in an 8% inflationary environment with shelter up 50%…
Further and further down the rabbit hole we go…where the hell is Alice, IIRC she was cutie….
Between the mindless babble all I hear is “if we do it….yayyyyyy – if they do it boooo”
Grow the fuck up .
Just spoken on Surveillance.
Last year at this time consensus FFR at year end 2022 was 0.68% and CPI was 2.6%.
Columbus is a gem of a city, it’s really a great place.
lol – SBF from FTX…
Today he is expected to take the stage (virtually, anyway) at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit in New York for a one-on-one chat with host Andrew Ross Sorkin.
They should have Rick Santelli do the interview instead. (yes I know he does not work for Pravda).
I’m sure his lawyers are loving this.
Is there a death pool market on him yet? What’s the odds? Surely FTX can go long and hold it on the balance sheet, in the name of client recovery –
trumplosesamsuicideToo grim?
Ex, I don’t applaud or boo, my hands are too greasy from that fake ballpark squirt butter. I’m just there for the game within the game…although I will shout ‘look out’ and feel badly when someone gets drilled hard by a foul ball line drive by one of the players….
Grim, I asked for odds here on several scenarios when it broke lol….
LOL. Takers?
leftwing says:
November 14, 2022 at 1:52 pm
So…fun with others’ lives….who wants to make odds on the following SBF outcomes 12 months from now?
1. On the lam, whereabouts unknown
2. Alive, location known, not incarcerated
3. Incarcerated, alive
4. Dead, during incarceration
5. Dead, before incarceration
JPow at 1:30pm with a Q+A, last before Fed blackout period IIRC.
Back to the coal mine, see you guys later.
SBF personally took money via backdoors they had setup. Since the coins and cash are missing Russia’s Bratva, Italy’s Camorra, and Japan’s Yakuza etc will want a word with him, he is not broke he has money and they will want it. They aren’t going to wait in line with a million other creditors.
I would think our DOJ does not know what to do yet but might pick him up to protect him. The civil cases are all going to be in the USA including the bankruptcy filed in the Bahamas it was all transferred here the Bahamians don’t know what to do, they probably all want him gone too so they can get back to tourism.
Bernie Madoff was arrested with little evidence only one day after his own kids went to the FBI. Madoff was only charged with one count of securities fraud at the time because the FBI and DOJ needed time to figure out had bad the Ponzi scheme was, but took him in to custody perhaps to keep him alive.
You are already seeing the lawyers lay down the basis of defense. Inexperienced kids who were clearly bad at business, enabled by investors that clearly lacked the desire to do any meaningful due diligence, or if they did, knowingly acted despite clearly seeing the gaps. Not malfeasance, not fraud, not a crime … this was purely inexperience, and not only inexperience, but inexperience that was knowingly fed by outside investors that clearly understood the risks. His parents were smart lawyers, just wait until they pull out disclosures, terms of service, etc etc. I’m sure buried in a hundred page risk statement is an acknowledgement that you understand you can lose all of your investment, deposit, or otherwise, and that will be paraded around as a clear disclosure to consumers and investors alike. Lawyers are going to paint depositors and investors with the biggest YOLO brush you’ve ever seen, and you know what, they’ll be right. And that’s all without needing to frame FTX as the victim of false rumors being spread by competitors, during a tumultuous time period, leading to the equivalent of a bank run. Remind me again, how many of the Lehman C suite went to prison? Oh yeah.
$50 bucks says that SBF doesn’t even do time.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index fell 1.2% in September, marking the third-straight month in which it declined.
“Bahamians don’t know what to do, they probably all want him gone too so they can get back to tourism.”
Juice although not as well known as others don’t forget Bahamas is a tax/corporate/legal haven which drives some serious revenue down there.
They are going to make sure theirs are taken care of first…IIRC immediately when this broke they somehow effected transfers of some funds from FTX to some Bahamian entities ‘under Bahamian law’.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law and Bahamas possess SBF…wouldn’t surprise me if those discussions already occurred, as in the US reached out for SBF and the Bahamas asked how their domiciled parties were going to be made whole. US says get in line and the Bahamas says, thanks, but we’ll wait.
Now back to the mines for real…
Good luck proving he stole anything. Their balance sheet was a written on the back of a napkin, you think there is any chance at finding records or communications that are enough to convict him of a crime? They were good computer nerds, far more talented than the computer nerds the justice department has. Hell, they’ll give the FBI a run for their money. Why should we assume that servers are even in a jurisdiction that investigators have any authority over. If I was going to commit an epic crypto fraud, I sure as hell wouldn’t be committing it on AWS’s Washington DC instance.
They are going to make sure theirs are taken care of first…IIRC immediately when this broke they somehow effected transfers of some funds from FTX to some Bahamian entities ‘under Bahamian law’.
What was widely reported as being a “hack” of $600m was in fact this transfer to the Bahamas custodians. I believe even SBF called this a hack, then I think he walked it back and claimed that officials FORCED HIM to do the “hack”. It reeks of the rumor mill running wild, but what stinks more was that the rumor came from FTX. Why even attempt the lie? If it was the rumor mill, why wouldn’t they have corrected it immediately? Then to attempt to walk it back using those terms? Not sure if idiocy or part of some master plan to point to the government of the Bahamas as facilitating the liquidity crisis and making them look liable.
SBF is going to prison if he succeeds in staying alive. Sentencing guidelines for a financial crime of this magnitude have him looking at 100+ years. Could end up in supermax.
“Is there a death pool market on him yet? What’s the odds? Surely FTX can go long and hold it on the balance sheet, in the name of client recovery – trumplose samsuicide
Too grim?”
Not for me.
How democrats, and the American government interfere with true capitalism:
LOL, I’m just sitting in the cheap seats wolfing down popcorn watching a Democrat controlled Congress attempt to run over a union before the lame duck session expires with the aid of Scranton Joe.
Time for regime change in the Bahamas-must install puppets there that do what America wants:
“Possession is 9/10ths of the law and Bahamas possess SBF…wouldn’t surprise me if those discussions already occurred, as in the US reached out for SBF and the Bahamas asked how their domiciled parties were going to be made whole. US says get in line and the Bahamas says, thanks, but we’ll wait.”
And how did SBF think he was going to get away with it; it’s always the question.
He will be arrested, the banking wire records alone, and perhaps tax evasion. He transferred hundreds of millions if not a billion or more personally to his accounts. Simple wire fraud as there has to be some US banks involved. I’d be more worried about ripping off the wrong person over jail time. A million creditors in Crypto and cash makes the odds very high that some are perhaps very bad people.
Then there is his family too mom, dad, brother all have villas in the Bahamas now with their names on the deeds, all paid for with stolen FTX funds. Massive tax evasion there too, squeeze mom and dad and perhaps the fat boy will sing to the Feds or the mafia whomever gets their first.
Good to know what MIT can produce, seems he forgot to take or failed his ethics course.
Not sure if it’s true, but the govt itself might be involved in this, her daddy as well.
SBF is going to be assassinated. It will be ostensibly a suicide. Could be from any of the usual suspects, but the Russians will be hired to do it because they can source the necessary materials and act with the stealth and connections needed.
Hubris. Probably been a compulsive liar in utero.
3b says:
November 30, 2022 at 9:28 am
And how did SBF think he was going to get away with it; it’s always the question
Chgo: It never changes.
but the Russians will be blamed for doing it because they can source the necessary materials and act with the stealth and connections needed, plus everyone already thinks they are evil so why not.
My TV broke last night, must be the Russians.
Maybe SBF thinks he’s living in a simulation and it’s a single player game, with infinite restarts. Also a total bullshitter. What a gang of wierdos he led.
chi, dumped my SPX hedges on this big red bar down with housing sales…good profit booked, which obviously is not the intention of this position, but there was just too much position size and too near term expiry to take into this afternoon.. I’m watching the 1minute chart, if something gets offsides and I think I want offsetting positions to my longs into JPow I will do it through some 0DTE (which I usually don’t use but, hey, nothing’s normal these days, right?)
Hope your well
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is set to speak at the New York Times Deal Book summit on Wednesday to discuss the catastrophic collapse of his crypto empire
Left: For the fuck of it I check the PE of AAPL, then glanced over at IBM. Conclusion? People don’t believe the Fed. So where is the pain trade? Treasuries? Weaker USD plays?
Hubris. Probably been a compulsive liar in utero.
Sociopath with narcissistic personality disorder. Usually they come across far more polished, but in this case his appearance and demeanor were more fitting to align with the expectations around the flipflop wearing, indifference peddling, startup founder image.
His overwhelming desire to “fix” the current misperception/misrepresentation, at the risk of indicting himself, is highly indicative of this.
AAPL P/E:
23.10
Current PE Ratio (TTM)
11.69
Minimum
JAN 03 2019
41.80
Maximum
DEC 28 2020
23.90
Average
23.76
Median
Sure, it’s the only tech company among the megacap FAANGs not to break. But it’s also got the strongest brand loyalty among them and is not dependent on advertisement revenue, which is what brought all of the others down. Periodically, a stock is worth the premium. I wouldn’t expect Apple to explode upwards from the levels, but I certainly wouldn’t short it. Unless perhaps, Elon joins to the board.
Something is not right with the IBM P/E? Did they make a large acquisition that reduced EPS?
https://ycharts.com/companies/IBM/pe_ratio
Fortunes are made every JPow day on WSB as degenerates load up on naked directional zero day positions.
Since The Babylon Bee was reinstated on twitter by Elon they have been on a tear. Earlier this year the satire site was banned for “hateful conduct.” They jokingly selected Rachel Levine – “woman of the year” and government official /4 star admiral- as a pick for “Man of the Year.”
https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee
Elon demands the Fed cut rates.
Just like his new best friend Donald. Won’t be long before he starts selling pillows.
chi….boo-yah….just wrote some puts on this latest big red bar down beneath some 0DTEs I bought after closing the prior hedge I mentioned…I’m now in for 0.25 on a 2 point wide 393/391 put spread expiring today…not even going to manage it, if I lose a quarter for 1.75 of protection I’m good with it…just sitting back now until the end of the day with some Orville Redenbacher in microwave….
I know you’re skeptical on hedges and rightfully so as every study shows the drag…those studies though are based on mechanical strategies in all markets, not dynamic entries (note, I didn’t say timed) on a Fed chairman speech day…
grim, excellent analysis of SBF earlier this morning…..
“Probably been a compulsive liar in utero.”
LOL, that’s funny. I do feel that I seem to attract more of these types than the average person, many times with JD attached…
“For the fuck of it I check the PE of AAPL, then glanced over at IBM. Conclusion? People don’t believe the Fed. So where is the pain trade? Treasuries? Weaker USD plays?”
Fucked if I know…if I did I would be located in the Bahamas legitimately owning one of those villas at Alpine sipping a drink on the beach as I ‘manage’ other peoples’ money with a handful of simple long positions rather than being glued to screen generating obscene short term options commissions for some brokerage….
“AAPL P/E: 23.10 Current, 23.90 Average, 23.76 Median”
Now proform the analysis since the average and median had zero risk free rates….
“Fortunes are made every JPow day on WSB as degenerates load up on naked directional zero day positions.”
Agree. Stupidest trade ever…takes a negative EV trade (long an option) and exponentially amplifies the error by doing it in a high volatility environment.
My screen shows an ATM (394) 0DTE option at a 27.5 vol….at 1pm on expiration day that should be about 11….
Translation?
You are taking a trade that on a normal day has a 75% chance of losing and overpaying by 2.5x (27.5/11) today for that losing position…PSA…if anyone who relies on wsb for ‘advice’ tries to give you some run away, hard and fast…
[the above analysis is with apologies to our MBAs and CFAs on the board as I know it is cringeworthy in its broadness but good enough for a real estate blog]
BREAKING!
Oath Keepers Leader Convicted of Sedition in Landmark Jan. 6 Case
A jury in federal court in Washington convicted Stewart Rhodes, the leader of the far-right militia, and one of his subordinates for a plot to keep Donald Trump in power.
Isn’t this…. literally yesterday’s news?
Well Boooooomer? Is she??
Powell: “boomers are lazy….. we have to keep raising rates because they are fat, dumb and happy, and keep spending their inflated asset values. That said, we go 50 in 2 weeks.”
My assets are inflated if you catch my drift. Wink wink nudge nudge.
Give me 11.6K on the Nasdaq and I’m going to 25/75. Long/Stable.
You fuckface…….
leftwing says:
November 30, 2022 at 12:28 pm
chi….boo-yah….just wrote some puts on this latest big red bar down beneath some 0DTEs I bought after closing the prior hedge I mentioned…I’m now in for 0.25 on a 2 point wide 393/391 put spread expiring today…
lib / left: regarding my P/E comment….. my fault for being vague…. IBM is a sh!tpile, but it we are (before today) in a dynamic where the market heavyweights underperform and value stocks are getting pumped. My point is that there is strong latent demand for stocks out there….. I was using a clean IBM P/E as an example among many. On my book, IBM is trading richer than AAPL, which is fuct. The VIX goes sub-20? Regardless, I think my thesis is solid, but at a certain point, being wrong on timing simply means you are wrong.
Gotcha.
Yes, IBM is a shitpile with legacy costs that’ll never allow them to be competitive again. Unfortunately, it probably maintains its improbable valuation due to so many friggin’ old people holding their shares who will never give them up. You are correct, it’s truly overvalued. Unfortunately, you might have to wait another 50 years before your short pays out.
Ex says:
November 30, 2022 at 2:13 pm
“My assets are inflated if you catch my drift. Wink wink nudge nudge.”
Bragging about his man boobs again. I bet Ex wears a Bro, at least I hope that’s the case and he’s not stealing ladies bras from from the airport luggage carousel like Biden’s mentally ill nuclear waste ‘expert’.
https://seinfeld.fandom.com/wiki/Bro
Boing!
Crypto exchange Kraken lays off 1,100 employees about 30%.
“You fuckface…….”
Haha, not really, lost a quarter from that trade (lol)…but my longs are up the same 7 bucks as everyone else ;) Seriously, good lesson in proper hedging, you’re rooting for the loss on the hedge because it’s established correctly (low cost, high return) and the alternative is your upside performs.
And re: your other comment, yeah, timing is nearly impossible. Which is why my cheatsheet is to drive on a road with really wide guardrails…much better outcome if you ever hit the ice patch and doesn’t matter much if you don’t…
Powell: “boomers are lazy….. we have to keep raising rates because they are fat, dumb and happy, and keep spending their inflated asset values
Reminds me of 70 year woman is front of me at farm bakery day before T-giving. I was getting wife a single $17 pumpkin pie and she bought $72 in cider donuts. Those things are stale in a day. They can’t waste their money fast enough.
403.28 is really important now, and she double topped on the minute…again I rarely do this but since I was brought into the whorehouse may as well drop my drawers, I just started leaning into 403/402 spreads expiring in an hour at 0.39 +/-….wtf, 2x return or I’m down 39+25 cents on the day against 7.00 of gains…
THIS is why I don’t do this….haven’t done fuck else since 10am…
Two bars above 403.40 and I’ll likely bail and eat lunch…
Christie Mc Vie ( Fleetwood Mac) passed away.
The songbird. https://youtu.be/eLRyYETnoIE
The five rental cars used by the Bidens over the thanksgiving weekend just spontaneously burst into flames. Nothing suspicious, happens all the time to cars that I rent.
The new mantra of the left should be embrace the third world. They’ve taken is there in less than two years.
The first move post JPow is always impulsive. What a freight train.
No surprises really Fed minutes last week showed they mentioned smaller increases coming. So .5 instead of .75?
This fucking virus is going to torture every function of my body before it finally leaves, isn’t it?
.5 was expected. The problem is, he should have stopped a long time ago. How many .5s and .25s are coming next? Spring is going to be a real shit-show.
Lib: Not stop, had to be done, what he should have done was do big ones at the beginning, 75/ one point, and get it done.
3:27 hahahahahah projection is pathetic
Zuckerberg sniping at Apple now too.
SBF is on now too.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/30/business/sam-bankman-fried-interview
I thought you banked $2 and paid $0.25….. didn’t you net $1.75? The thing blew out the top…… isnt it a bullish bet?
leftwing says:
November 30, 2022 at 2:54 pm
“You fuckface…….”
Haha, not really, lost a quarter from that trade (lol)…
WSJ Editorial
Rising Loan Limits Are a New Federal McMansion Subsidy
Biden’s housing regulator order taxpayers to underwrite million-dollar mortgages.
The Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policies fueled housing inflation, and now rising mortgage interest rates are pricing out buyers. So what does the Biden Administration do? Guarantee million-dollar mortgages, which will expand the taxpayer liability and housing-market dysfunction.
Congress created government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee middle-class mortgages and make housing more affordable. Now the Administration is turning a government-backed mortgage into an entitlement for the affluent in coastal areas where zoning regulations drive up prices.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said Tuesday it will increase the maximum size of mortgages that Fannie and Freddie will cover—known as the conforming loan limit—to $1,089,300 in high-cost areas from $970,800 this year and $765,600 in 2020. The conforming loan limit in other areas will rise to $726,200, from $510,400 two years ago.
Home prices surged during the pandemic as record low interest rates and the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities reduced costs for buyers and fueled demand. But what the Fed giveth to homebuyers, it taketh as it combats inflation. The interest rate on a 30-year mortgage has averaged 6.8% this month, up from about 3% a year ago.
Higher interest rates have increased the monthly mortgage payment for the median $454,900 home by about $800 in the last year. In metro areas like Boston, Washington, D.C., and California’s Bay Area, where many homes can sell for more than $1 million, new buyers are having to shovel out $2,000 more per month for a mortgage than a year ago.
New home construction is falling, which could weigh on the economy as housing helps drive demand for household goods. But a correction is overdue and would prevent the housing mania that ended in tears in 2008.
Instead, the Administration wants to prop up housing demand and prices by raising the guarantee limit. This will please the Realtors and affluent, especially in California areas where the median home price exceeds the new limit, such as Orange County ($1.2 million), San Francisco ($1.3 million) and San Jose ($1.7 million).
Sorry to state the obvious, but anyone who can qualify for a million-dollar mortgage doesn’t need the government to subsidize it with a guarantee. The average 30-year interest rate on a jumbo loan is 6.8%, which is similar to a government-backed mortgage.
Borrowers with jumbo loans tend to have higher incomes and credit scores. But these mortgages are getting riskier as borrower monthly payments have risen faster than incomes. Layoffs are increasing in higher-paying fields like tech, and a recession could result in foreclosures. The FHFA is expanding the taxpayer liability at an especially risky time.
After Fannie and Freddie went bust during the housing meltdown, they were placed under government conservatorship and received a $190 billion bailout from Treasury. We argued for shrinking the taxpayer backstop by reducing the conforming loan limit. Instead, the limit has increased by 75% since 2015, which has boosted home prices and taxpayer liabilities.
The more the government intervenes in the housing market, the more damage it does.
No, a hedge…393/391 put debit spreads…they replaced the 400/390s 12/9s I closed in the morning for a nice gain.
I do better at these market levels when I know I have a backstop…those two combined gave me about five points of coverage going into the speech, with the runup came out of the hedges with three points profit…but…I’m all long now, no backstop. Need to reconsider my view of the next couple weeks, expected a pop on the Fed but on the 13th…I feel this front ran it
Sweet day, huh.
Sad news on Christie McVie…almost 80, damn I feel old.
Anyone catch that hour+ SBF interview? Wild.
re: SBF interview
I have seen hostages twitch less when reading off a script handed to them by ISIS.
$1mm conforming loans…pure lunacy. WSJ editorials get it right, as usual…
“We argued for shrinking the taxpayer backstop by reducing the conforming loan limit. Instead, the limit has increased by 75% since 2015, which has boosted home prices and taxpayer liabilities.
The more the government intervenes in the housing market, the more damage it does.”
My Grandma passed. I can’t believe she fought this long (rocky balboa style). I find comfort in that she is no longer suffering, but extreme pain in losing someone so important in my life. RIP.
Pumpkin,
Condolences.
Pumpkin…. condolences.
If you want a solid discussion on AAPL, then find the footage of the 11/29/22 Fast Money (last night). Minutes 18:30-24:00. I would post a link, but I haven’t found it segregated anywhere. At a minimum, you can go to the free posting of yesterday’s program and sit through 2 minutes of commercials if you are interested. The first minute is good, then it stalls out, but then the last couple of minutes are really insightful.
Top line it for us ChiFi
Pumps: Condolences to you and your family. The holidays make it even harder.
Pumpkin sorry to hear about you grandma, it’s always tough, and around the holidays as well, so stay strong and think of all the good times you had she sounds like she was a wonderful grandma to you.
More SBF tomorrow morning on his apology tour.
Stephanopoulos interview on GMA, he will be lying through his teeth again, as the fraud really began in 2021 before the latest crypto downturn. This year the tide just went out…
Condolences Pumpkin
Sorry Pumps.
And now this…
https://www.instagram.com/reel/ClhGp08OTRn/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
Condolences pumps.
The owners of Bridgewater Commons in Somerset County, less than 50 miles west of New York City, received a default notice and entered talks for a potential deed-in-lieu of foreclosure notice.
Pumps, condolences to you and your family.
Is this the grandma that funded your downpayment? She must have been a saint. I understand now why she was so important to you. None the less, our condolences to you and the fam.
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxv3SRQlJiRzlNOVQiBlwQqbscahHm9rLq
VGR wins their first preseason game, but there were ups and downs.
From GMA interview today- SBF woe is me tale, while he is being interviewed from his $40 million dollar condo with the deed in his name.
“Bankman-Fried said he currently owns just one ATM card and has $100,000 in his bank account, a drastic reversal from the estimated $20 billion net worth that thrust him into the spotlight. He said a $1 billion loan he made to himself “was generally for reinvesting in the company” and “not for consumption.”
“I have basically nothing left,” he said.”
There is a paper trail of hundreds of millions in investments.
https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/ftxs-sam-bankman-fried-denies-improper-customer-funds-94233125
“Give me 11.6K on the Nasdaq and I’m going to 25/75. Long/Stable.”
Don’t have my lineup card in front of me Lib, does that mean you are going more bullish or more bearish if NDX hits those levels?
Bridgewater Commons, ouch. I avoid malls like the plague but my understanding is that was pretty high scale, if for no other reason than the area demographics? Maybe it’s an owner specific issue – overleveraged – but if malls like that are at risk most can’t be safe….
Donate five Million to get Biden elected and buy a free other politicians and you get a get out of jail free card. His parents are well connected leftists. The propagandists are running a damage control campaign for him. They’ve all circled the wagons to protect one of their own. Not surprising.
Thanks, guys…appreciate it.
Sacre bleu, a state dinnehhh at Ze White House this evening…
Sleepy Joe invited our Governor Murphy. Snubbed California Gov Newsom it seems, but also invited Govenor Lamont of Connecticut.
Pumps- sorry man.
Left,
Gearing up for the recession. I actually started selling yesterday. I really think it’s going to get ugly next year. Easy money.
Def don’t see how you lose with ARKG long-term if you are buying or have bought the past year.
“Since May, not only has $ARKG beat the S&P 500 but it’s the leader of the ARK Complex. The reason is it’s the Smallest Companies that are surprisingly well capitalized and provide the biggest solutions to major problems. Two holdings have been bought by CVS and Amazon this year.
$AMZN bought $ONEM that was an ARKG holding and $CVS bought Signify Health $SGFY that was the #1 holding. I never buy individual stocks for an acquisition Thesis but $ARKG is loaded with acquisition candidates. ark-funds.com/wp-content/upl…
While I’ve been large owner of ARK Funds for the past 5+ years, $ARKG is where I’ve concentrated my ARK exposure simply because so many holdings have a Price To Book value that’s far less than the S&P 500. It’s a list of, in my opinion, the deepest Value for a Growth Investor.”
LW,
Upscale enough that it shouldn’t be in any financial danger.
Plenty of things aren’t as they appear anymore, however.
These malls foreclosing are the predecessor. On the way to AC last weekend, the number of blank billboards was astonishing. Haven’t seen that since 2008. Retail is busting.
10Y 358
Just remember, this represents a massive move. We had been at 433. 75 bps
Stimulates everything.
Is this a sugar rush? You tell me.
It’s the hardest part of life…every single relationship will come to an end. It’s not easy losing the people you love. Have to make the most of it while you can..
In less than 2 weeks we are overnight 425-450. Just saying
I’m guessing it’s a temporary slowdown. It went up too fast. Complete guess of course.
GP,
That is why I do my best every day to try to keep other’s loved ones out of a casket.
Not a hero, just someone who does their best every day.
Could use a raise though. And decent benefits. And a real pension like a government worker gets, not like I and my co-workers aren’t deserving.
Gotcha Lib. Good El-Erian interview on CNBC earlier this morning, supplementing an editorial he had in the FT two days ago. Worth listening to this guy.
I’m in his camp…we are beyond peak inflation being an issue, as is the thin leading edge of the Fed. No bandwidth to debate it here anymore, everyone has an opinion on inflation and rates, but I’ve been mostly correct these last 12 or so months (at least my p/l says I have) and I will continue trading my trajectory.
The point El Erian makes, in addition to the above is that with all the focus on inflation/rates, earnings have not been adequately scrutinized relative to market levels.
Numbers seem to be all over the place but I think I keep seeing a locus around 210-220 for 2023…there will be at least one quarter – maybe 1Q23, maybe as soon as 4Q22, maybe later in 2023, maybe all of 2023 – where I am confident we will not hit that run rate. My conservative base is a 200 run rate for next year, and 180 is my downside.
With all my hedges off yesterday I need to carve out a few hours today to evaluate where my portfolio is, what I might do through year end, and what new hedge I’m going to (definitely) put on with the markets at these levels…
Partly complicating the process is I do believe yesterday pre-empted my expected pop on 12/13…not sure at all how that presser will play out now.
Coal mine day for me….
Also, Mike Philips of Morgan Stanley is well worth listening to on macro…I’ve sent you his stuff before Lib.
Left: Given Powell’s comments yesterday, don’t you think the jobs number at 8:30 tomorrow looms large? I heard him say specifically that leftwing’s base effects are crap and the labor portion of core PCE was his bogey. Despite tomorrow’s morning number, I’m more interested in that tally available at roughly 9:30PM.
Lib: Rates are still negative vs inflation; I guess the market seems to be ignoring that.
Yes, inflation is behind us. But now we face an economy with a dying housing market, significantly higher borrowing costs for businesses (big deal), and consumers (big deal too), and oil remaining impossibly high (starting to climb again). Plus, not sure tech, especially ad revenue driven, will make a comeback until TikTok is banned (which will never happen). And remember, last Xmas, retail was seriously juiced due to post-pandemic pant-up spending desires. This Xmas, it’s how can we cut back some? Earnings are going lower. Much, much lower. And Powell says they are going to continue selling off balance sheet assets at nearly 100 billion a month for the foeseeable future. Thems some pretty major headwinds still. Inflation has sapped the consumer. It will take a while for people’s salaries to increase enough to make them feel rich enough to blow discretionary dollars again. The credit card is way too expensive to pay off and cars are still priced stupidly high. Give it about a year, then we should start our healthy recovery.
Wayfair has a service to replace doorknobs and swap drawer pulls.
WHAT!!!????
Can I pay them to wet-nurse me too?
Lib: Inflation looks like it may be becoming embedded in the economy in my view.
I visited my parents in Florida a few weeks back. One could easily make $100 an hour offering to fix the most basic tech problems these people have in the retirement communities. I’m talking, stuck print queues, setting up wifi (router settings), heck, teaching them how to attach a photo to an email. Easy $800 a day cash job. $4,000 a week. $16K a month and 150 to 200K a year off the books.
Libturd says:
December 1, 2022 at 10:29 am
“Yes, inflation is behind us.”
Anecdotal or data-based? I’m not sure myself, so curious to know the level of conviction behind that statement, and what leads you to that conclusion?
3b,
Prices will not come back down (except for maybe cars), but the basic rules of supply and demand are still at play. The economic slowdown will curb inflation due to lack of demand for products.
12 month trailing index return on DJIA (12/1/21-11/30/22) is
POSITIVE 1.7%
SGC,
Both. Prices have levelled at the supermarkets and for rents. The lower gas prices too should help, even if temporary for now. After this Xmas quarter, figure late February, discounting will begin to clear inventory. You won’t have inflation among the discounting, layoffs, reduced fuel use, etc. There is a lag in a lot of the inflationary data, much like with housing data. By the time it shows up in the data, we are two or three months in. It’s already starting to show. I’ve seen it in reduced highway traffic too.
Chi,
Mostly due to the shift from tech stock gambling to dividend paying industrials. The recession will sink all ships except for the most basic staples and energy.
WSJ opinions – like oxygen
What interested me about Mr. Bankman-Fried’s commitment to effective altruism is his notion of what qualified. As this newspaper reported on the FTX founder’s philanthropy, “Sam Bankman-Fried said he wanted to prevent nuclear war and stop future pandemics.” It gives new meaning to thinking big. It’s also delusional, which has become a political characteristic of his generation.
Altruism is a great smoke screen. Environmental Altruism is worth double points to the easily fooled.
Thundaar says:
December 1, 2022 at 7:45 am
“The owners of Bridgewater Commons…received a default notice…”
Observations from ground-zero…
– BC was mobbed on black Friday; traffic into the mall backed up about a quarter mile on 206 at midday
– Of the 3 anchors, one (Lord & Taylor) has been empty for multiple years, one (Bloomies) is a ghost town as judged from it’s perpetually empty parking lot, and one (Macy’s) appears to be mostly treading-water
– Restaurants, several of which have been bolted onto the mall in recent years, seem to be mostly healthy and as with local restaurants generally, range from perpetually packed (Cheesecake) to stale and struggling (CPK)
– AMC dine-in, which was a gold mine prior to covid, is way off, largely I think because there are no good movies. I suspect this has hurt the mall quite a bit
Speaking generally, and assuming malls are largely built-out in terms of replacing retail with restaurants, I think they next look to turn empty anchors into residential.
12 month trailing index return on DJIA (12/1/21-11/30/22) is
POSITIVE 1.7%
Pfffttt… screw that boomer crap. You gotta be in non-profitable tech.
Prevent nuclear war by funneling money for Ukraine? Stop pandemics by funding politicians guarding the guy who literally circumvented restrictions to fund gain of function research.
Pumps, sorry for you loss
Could you imagine living in the mall?
Maybe in 1983.
Trust me. It’s great.
It is. It is.
SmallGovt,
My NJ office is across the street from Maggianos at Bridgwater Commons.
Have been working remotely from FL the last couple of months though.
Used to go more to the AMC movies when my daughter would drag us in there. Food was mostly disappointing but it was adequate. Now the only movies people go to see are the increasingly tiresome Marvel or action stuff. I think the last movie I saw in there was the Downton Abbey movie, showing my age. I’m definitely not going to see the latest gay pride, class struggle, or racial justice movie, now seemingly 75% of Hollywood content since that’s all they teach screenwriters in school these days.
12:09 stfu
Dreamtheater we need to talk you gutless POS
11:22 we’re in the marvel comics age.
so muscular men make you tingle??
No one questioning his choices
Ex – Look through the current movie theater offerings and tell me which one you would take your wife too on a date night this weekend?
I am with Scorsese on this one, we are now sold basically only a few big screen movie products, and they are inhospitable to art form of cinema. It’s all about financial dominance and it is marginalizing the art form of cinema to the point where there will not be anything left of it. People want more choice and now we are seeing the fallout, they cannot blame covid anymore for poor box office receipts at the theaters.
I’m an indie film buff so the 90s were my jam movie-wise.
I looooved the new Top Gun, she however passed. You get the idea.
Pumps,
Sorry about your Grandma , holidays can be hard enough without losing your grandmother. My Mom will be turning 98 in 6 months , I am pretty sure she will outlive me. plus she is sharp as a tack and is taking all other patients money at Bingo. She has and had a great life.
Lib,
I though you were on side of a ‘recession like you’ve never seen before’ and now on side of ho-hum? Why change in heart?
By,
Don’t get mad at me, but I think the FED is behaving relatively appropriately. THIS, I never expected to see in my lifetime. Especially after Trump was so easily able to pressure Powell into being a moron back in 2019.
Now the recession is an economic measure of growth (or lack thereof). I still think the stock market is going to go a lot lower from here. Always said I expected it to be deep (but short). Like a panic, as opposed to a great depression.
I’ve been known to be wrong too, but that’s quite rare. :P
I didn’t hear what market participants heard in Powells speech today; in fact I heard high inflation ( although it may be dropping) is becoming embedded in the economy, rates will continue to rise, albeit at lower increases. Rates will remain high, and the Fed is not going to go from raising rates to cutting, and so rates will remain high. Increases have been filtering into the economy.
So in my view more rate increases, persistent high inflation vs what it was, and a recession which will be the result of these increases, housing prices continue to decline going forward.
Ol Alex Jones is at it again ….
Ye his guest seems to think a lot of Hitler.
Someone needs to let Ye know if Hitler met him he’d be gassed
within minutes. Two strikes: he is black AND mentally deficient.
That’s a double death sentence in Nazi Germany.
Ah, good times.
Alex Jones has nothing to lose.
3b, the inflation will be limited by the recession. You can’t raise prices when you are laying employees off. Well you can. But it’s not advised if you want your entity to exist much longer.
I guess my thoughts are more with 3b here. It sounds more like BAU with Fed, bowing to WS expectations. We would need mass layoffs to have any recession and the tech layoffs make nice headlines but are insignificant to overall market. These tech people are gobbled up before they hit the street. Developers are not building less, people are not buying less homes, still spending frivolously, stores are still charging way more (went way above inlfation), labor costs at lowest level are still moving upwards as roles hard to fill/keep. I just don’t see anything on horizon to indicate any stoppage here that abates inflation or demand. Not in this area.
Lib: Stagflation.
Inflation was caused by all the stimulus, zirp and asset purchasing. It will work it’s way through.
Long range weather forecasts are calling for a cold winter in Europe starting in another week and it could get pretty nasty here starting with the 8th. Cold weather is bad for oil, but terrible for retail.
We’ll see. As we all know, it’s hard to predict the future. Just ask the Great Pumpkin.
“Lib: Stagflation.”
Possibly. Though FED can get things going again through ZIRP and asset purchasing once again.
Ex,
Can you name some of your favorite 1990s indie movies?
I’ll go first :
Metropolitan (1990)
Barcelona (94)
Eat Drink Man Woman (94)
Election (99)
The Pride and Prejudice miniseries, 5.5 hours, from BBC in 1995 is probably the best adaptation of a novel to film ever.
Lib: A decade of low rates and then all the pandemic additional stimulation, ain’t going to clear up over night. I don’t see the Fed zirping again anytime soon, and if it did, then we are in major trouble. I believe the Fed understands we need to get back to normal interest rates, with a 5 percent FFR. The decade long party is over.
Office Space
Clerks
Magnolia
Singles
High Fidelity
True Romance
Ghost Dog
Drugstore Cowboy
Pretty much with you Lib on the analysis, the outcome I see is less deep and a little more extended than you maybe…housing is an issue, I’m more sanguine about borrowing costs especially for corporates who are mostly fixed and locked cheap, oil is what it is and 3.xx gas is more than manageable. Ad revenue, not concerned, it’s more a stock market issue and will hit low end apps. Christmas is a jump ball, seriously conflicting issues there, not the least of which is unit volumes vs. top line revenue…before retailers started reporting this quarter I sent you a research piece noting that unit volumes would be off and asking what the consequences were, result post- those earnings market is looking through unit volume declines if gross revenue growth is there…plus, one of my favorite points to you…nominal > real…valuation measures are based on nominal earnings, not inflation adjusted, so if we settle into a 3-4% embedded inflation rate next year which I would foresee earnings may in fact get really juiced for those companies with operating leverage…you say earnings next year are much lower, Street seems to be at 220, my downside is 40% off that which is very large…are you at a bigger haircut than that…
“Don’t get mad at me, but I think the FED is behaving relatively appropriately. THIS, I never expected to see in my lifetime. Especially after Trump was so easily able to pressure Powell into being a moron back in 2019.”
I think Biden will continue to stand back and let the fed do what it needs to. He was in the senate during the inflationary 70’s and the Volker years so he knows what needs to be done.
And, as Afghanistan demonstrated, he’s not afraid to “rip off the bandaid” when it’s necessary.
Do not underestimate old Joe!
There are still great movies being made. They just aren’t released to major cinemas anymore since dumb American audiences are drooling over Spiderman 7 and Batman 9.
I loved Minari, Shiva Baby, King of Staten Island, Spontaneous, Shithouse, An American Pickle, Greyhound, Even Suicide Squad and the last Bond Flick.
Lots of good films recently out of Korea too.
Left. 40% is probably about right.
The layoffs will come to the other places. People are just starting to curtail their spending. It takes time and even longer for the manipulated data to show it.
Repo Man
(technically an 80’s movie, but I didn’t see it till the 90’s)
Ex: My claim to fame with Clerks, I know the star, from the old neighborhood.
And if you like really stupid comedies, there have been a lot of decent ones lately.
chi, threw on some hedges through VIX. Yet again not something I usually use but looking very short term given the upcoming calendar and just normal year end vagaries.
Best thing that could happen for me is the market shits the bed going into JPow on 12/13 then takes a major window dressing rally into the end of the year…THAT would be very nice.
Not a prediction. Just low cost insurance.
Lib; I agree I’m good films out from Korea, also Spain, Poland and Finland. The actors in thee movies all look like ordinary people, not the typical male and female American actors.
2:43 Heck yeah!! Love that whole cast of miscreants.
2:43
Step Brothers, Anchorman….anything of that ilk
3B Kevin Smith is aces with me!
Ex; That movie was his debut. I know the guy who played Dante Hicks, my friends younger brother.
Ex:Will Ferrell can get a little tiring, but I agree.
Ex,
Check out Blackkklansman, Bad Trip, Good Boys, Booksmart, Eighth Grade, Licorice Pizza (not a comedy, but funny enough). Barb and Star go to Vista Del Mar was great too. There’s a lot of good funny out there. But the problem is the recent critics have the same sensibilities as the Spiderman and Ocean’s Eleven crowd. People want escapes now. I’m contempt.
Content.
Licorice Pizza was decent. Having worked in the Valley last year it resonated.
Blackklansman was good too. I’ll look into the others.
Danté was cool! Kind of the Everyman.
Ex: He played it well. We grew up in a working class neighborhood, his parents like mine were immigrant, so he was able to play the everyman part well.
Does not seem like Digital Currency Group got more investors to kick in to bailout their Ponzi, it was rumored they were calling around asking for $2 Billion.
“Genesis Global Trading’s creditors have hired restructuring lawyers to help find a way prevent the crypto brokerage from having to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people with knowledge of the situation.
Some creditors are working with law firm Proskauer Rose, while others have retained Kirkland & Ellis, the people said.”
So these are the folks who run Grayscale Investments Bitcoin ETF symbol GBTC it’s run on the pink sheets OTCQX. Kathy Woods just kicked in more bucks too, nobody is coming to the rescue it seems.
A crypto crash just smells imminent.
These exchanges are all IOUs BTW…..no key no crypto they say.
Fed s Barr says it’s a mistake to misinterpret a slower pace of rate hikes as meaning the Fed is not committed to their 2 percent inflation goal.
A big FU the Union rail workers, passed 80 to 15 vote in the Senate now on to Sleepy Joe to put the boot on their necks.
Juice; I had no idea the rail workers do not have paid sick leave. 21 century, and still jobs with no paid sick leave. But, I am know there are millions of people who don’t have paid sick leave, just very surprised as union jobs rail workers still don’t.
Ex: Kevin Smith’s store is down the street here….
https://secret-stash-stuff.square.site/
Reservoir Dogs
Ex says:
December 1, 2022 at 2:30 pm
Being John Malkovich
The Lives of Others
(Das Leben der Anderen)
Memento
7:35 pivotal film.
I need this in a car magnet. I’d order 100 and spend my weekends distributing them to worthy souls.
https://secret-stash-stuff.square.site/product/got-christ-t-shirt/1773
Pumps, condolences.
The 90s were a golden age for movies; Heat, True Romance, Leon, Fight Club, Toy Story, The Matrix, Big Lebowski, Fargo, Trainspotting, on and on something for everyone.
But for an RE blog, is there no love for Glengarry Glen Ross?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrtKcmLTIFk
Lots and lots of fun stuff popping out at the moment.
Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA @GRDecter
Blackstone’s $69 billion real estate fund announced today that it’s limiting redemptions.
This is a scary sign for the real estate market.
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1598416556039495680
John Della Volpe@dellavolpe
Newt Gingrich on Joe Biden.
“Republicans must learn to quit underestimating @POTUS .”
“Conservatives’ hostility to Biden administration on our terms tends to blind us to just how effective Biden has been.”
“Biden team had 1 of the best first term off-year elections in history.”
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1598416556039495680
And my favorite of the day, it puts FTX in some perspective.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2022/11/23/three-cofounders-of-2-billion-fintech-pipe-resign-abruptly-citing-inexperience/
Three cofounders of fintech lending startup Pipe, valued at $2 billion in a funding round last year, are stepping down from the Miami company. The departing executives include co-CEO Harry Hurst, 33; co-CEO Josh Mangel, 29; and CTO Zain Allarakhia, 34. The news comes as a big surprise since the fast-growing business is just three years old, and it’s highly unusual for multiple cofounders to all announce their resignations at once.
“While the three of us will still all be involved in Pipe, of course, we acknowledge the company needs a veteran and experienced operational CEO to drive the business forward to even greater heights,” former co-CEO Harry Hurst said in a press release yesterday. Pipe is currently searching for a new CEO. Hurst has already stepped down but remains on the board as vice chair. Mangel will be Pipe’s acting CEO until a replacement is found, at which point he’ll become executive chair. Allarakhia “will also remain deeply involved, both at the board level and in his role as Senior Advisor,” the press release states.