From Mansion Global:
Inventory in New York City Rose in November, as Did Price Cuts
After nearly three topsy-turvy years, the real estate market in New York City has started to look more like pre-pandemic times, according to a Tuesday report from StreetEasy.
Rising borrowing costs resulted in home sales in the city dropping 35% in November compared to the same time a year ago, the data showed. In addition, 11.7% of sellers cut their asking prices, up 2.1% from last year.
“The New York City market is drawing a resemblance to 2019, when rising inventory led to more price cuts and tempered sale prices,” StreetEasy economist Kenny Lee said in the report.
Indeed, inventory was up 1.7% annually in November, marking the first yearly increase since July 2021. Plus, a typical home took an additional 11 days to sell—75 on average—than it did last year.
“In the second half of 2021, resurgence in demand driven by record-low mortgage rates drew down available inventory, which intensified competition among buyers in spring 2022,” Mr. Lee continued. “Sales inventory is now rebounding as listings are sitting on the market for longer and more buyers wait on the sidelines.”
In Manhattan, the typical home sold for $1.1 million last month, about 0.5% below its peak in August, the figures showed. At the same time, new listings fell 16.7% year over year and nearly 11% of listings got price cuts. A typical listing with a price cut slashed its asking price by 5.3%l—the highest margin since October 2020, when the market was reeling from the early impacts of the pandemic.
…
Meanwhile, in Brooklyn, sales were down nearly 35%, and 13% of listings saw price cuts, the figures showed. But there’s still fierce competition for higher priced homes. Inventory fell 8.2% year over year, while sales prices rose 2.5% annually to $695,000.
First
Damn, dd….lol
Breaking:
I.R.S. Didn’t Audit Trump for 2 Years in Office, House Committee Says
The House Ways and Means Committee voted to release six years of Mr. Trump’s tax returns, and members revealed that the I.R.S. failed to follow its own policy because it did not audit Mr. Trump during his first two years in office. It may be days before the tax information is revealed.
Good discussion on the WFH debate. Shows the best of this board…
My two cents (which may surprise you)…I think you’re all correct.
On the theme of ‘where you stand depends upon where you sit’….
There has always been WFH…to clarify and maybe remove some of the extraneous arguments let’s think ‘work from not in the office’ (WFNITO, lol) or ‘remote work’ when we see WFH.
Why? Various professions have always been outside the office (where you sit…). I shared my Group Head would literally and openly berate any MD in the office for more than two consecutive days. That was over twenty years ago. Two very good friends of mine – like many of us they straddle that Boomer/GenX line in age – are senior salespeople for major US corporates. One lives on the Main Line, closest corporate office is suburban NJ, she’ll hit that or the NY headquarters maybe three or four times a month…the other, similar profile, works for an iconic US F500 company, I do not think he has been in any office of theirs for years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t even have a functioning corporate ID to get him in the door of an office. Or ask Bystander, who is experiencing the ultimate in WFH (remote work)…what could be more remote than literally not even being in the same country as your employer and team? WFHC (work from home country)?
These profiles all existed pre-covid. So what changed?
Covid demonstrated – underscoring very importantly for both employees and their employers – that more professional jobs than B2B salespeople and offshored IT could be done remotely.
To chi’s point and Stu’s excellent writeups, there may be a little ‘cheating’ in this regard, meaning that some amount of new WFH/remote work is occurring and only possible because of long term relationships and pathways forged by years and even decades of teams in the office. How representative and sustainable one wants to view this phenomenon is open to debate and not my point here.
What I would like to expand on is the other debate above of ‘thanks Boomer’ and ‘these damn kids…’
Major societal change doesn’t just happen, it does not arrive in the third person passive voice…it is actively formed by the then current generation and has all the attributes of any force including unintended consequences.
We can ‘thank Boomer’ – sincerely – for the expansion of women in the workforce. Huge positive change. We can also ‘thank Boomer’ – sarcastically – as the expansion of two earner, professional households helped drive the price of a SFH in metro suburban areas outside the means of the one-earner family substantively changing the lifestyle enjoyed by prior generations…those unintended consequences…
So what about WFH…interestingly much of the discussion here centered on the benefit to the employee (where you sit…)…time with family, absence of a commute, lower lifestyle costs…and mostly just assumed some benefit to the employer. Recall my underscored point above, the employer has at least an equal – and I would argue more important – voice in this decision.
That so much analysis is from a perspective almost entirely employee-centric is not surprising but potentially has a fatal egocentric flaw…It assumes the employee essentially views the job as ‘his’, and then goes on to conclude, not inaccurately, that under that condition WFH is a ‘win-win’…the employee realizes the aforementioned benefits and the corporation ‘gains’ some lessened RE expense and some amorphous productivity enhancement due to a happier employee with fewer non-productive claims on their work time.
Why should it end there? Actually, what in the world makes you think that any rational employer evaluating wholesale, new employee WFH onboarding would even consider that framework? Or, stated differently, if a corporation is going to upend the traditional work structure that has been in place for generations why in the world would you believe that their starting point is that ‘you’ ought to have that job seat and then they will structure this new paradigm around your assumption that you ‘own’ that job so that both of you can realize mutual benefit? Anyone want to review about a decade’s worth of Bystander’s job posts?
Listen, I spend a lot of time not just around my and my extended family’s GenZ’ers but many others as well. I personally feel, even given what my generation would consider a certain degree of flakiness and all the ‘wokeness’ pumped into their veins, that we as a society will be in pretty good hands with them. I would throw the flag of unintended consequences down for them on this WFH topic, for their benefit…hey, all the props in the world if they can create a society with a ring fence around personal/work time with the ability to be task focused and for that role to be geographically agnostic while not suffering any material diminished compensation. It’s an employee’s dream…but…I would suggest they first ask how those WFH parameters will affect the behavior of their major partner in this mutual relationship…because the parameters of that employee-centric derived dream role just described is why as an employer I am specifically not going to hire Madison from Madison NJ living in Montclair and instead first I’m going to hire Al from Indiana University sitting in Terre Haute at a third off and then move on to Sunita and Mikolaj at half off….
For all the WFH/remote advocates, all I’m suggesting is that for the benefit of new GenZ’ers coming to the work force you just zoom the lens out far enough consider you may be viewing this phenomenon employee-centrically, with an established career and track record, and without adequate consideration of the wider opportunities it opens for employers to new employees’ detriment…start with a clean whiteboard for these kids (that the job posted for a new GenZ employee is not their birthright) before putting into motion a series of events that you believe will better the life of the upcoming generation but may result instead in them being handed yet again the equivalent of an $800k Rheingold and cabbage crapshack. Some unintended consequences are, in fact, highly predictable.
It’s far more cost effective for employers to leverage work-from-home to exploit domestic wage arbitrage than it is to outsource to a third party. This is the irony of the wfh-outsource argument. Domestic WFH is the single biggest threat to domestic outsourcing that exists right now.
Just for reference, oursourcing a near-minimum wage position in the US right now would run you about $35-40 per hour, and that most likely is going to get you a remote worker anyway. Outsourcing to a brick and mortar could push over $40. A $17-18 wage would put that number close to $50 an hour. These rates assume full time with benefits, with management overhead. Keep in mind, part time rates actually run higher on a per hour basis, $45-55ish would be an accurate estimate).
It’s unlikely you’ll get any economies of scale until you are north of 100 headcount and can shed the overhead of the management, support staff, and physical infrastructure to support those resources. At that point, those price points will begin to make sense.
My point exactly Grim….lots of very good kids from those not first tier state schools living in flyover territory our kids disparage who will easily do a ring fenced, 40 hour, task specific work week at a fraction of the cost of a Google/META, etc employee in the NY metro area…be careful what you wish for, the benefits may accrue, but not to you (unless you like Cincinnati)…
Not suggesting SD/CS (or back office financial functions, or compliance, etc) is going to some third party…for new employees if a corporate is going remote, just don’t do it in the highest wage/benefit cost area of the country…
There are some freelancers that are absolutely killing it right now. Good friend is a dev contractor – he’s currently working 2 full-time contract gigs (yes, at the same time), and doing decent side work through Upwork. He’s gotta be north of $350k, and has absolutely zero allegiance to any employer. He’s in Northern NY State too, very low cost of living.
Speaking of crazy side gigs – I was talking to an old pal of mine, he is making an astronomical amount of money pet sitting w/ Rover. At first I’m laughing at him, telling him he must suck as a sales guy if he’s gotta do Uber on the side (he’s actually a pretty good salesperson, I’m sure his total comp does not require side gigging). But the dude loves dogs, crazy about dogs, but can’t own a dog because he’s a sales person with high travel, single, no partner to help. People drop them off, pick them up, he’s home all day anyway, no big deal. Says he did nearly $40k this year, and he’s got clients lined up all through New Years which will push that even higher. Says he’s almost fully paying his mortgage with it, and laughing about dogs paying for his house.
Left/ Grim: We hire throughout the country, does not matter about location. As you note it gives the employer access to a whole talent pool they did not have before. I have been saying this since the start of the pandemic, and also saying repeatedly that NYC and other big cities are going to have to reinvent themselves going forward. The old line of this is NYC you have to be here is not all that relevant any more. You may need a presence here ( for now), but you don’t have to be here any more.
leftwing/grim,
I’m reading your posts (a few times over) and sounds like you’re contradicting yourselves. Sum it up please. Who benefits, the employer or employee? You’re both writing a thesis statement, give us the cliff notes.
grim/leftwing.
I appreciate the very detailed in-depth commentary. Thank you
The new spending bill that will be passed this week is over 4100 pages, and none of our Representatives have read it, or even know what’s really in there. What’s the point?
Beautiful post.
They are throwing the future generations under the bus for short-term benefits to themselves. Human nature is a biatch. I just don’t understand how people can be so shortsighted….like you point out, do you actually think the company is going to take the more expensive option in the long-term? If so, why? White collar americans will get destroyed if WFH becomes the norm. Be careful what you ask for.
leftwing says:
December 21, 2022 at 7:50 am
Product of the asset boom that flowed in tech. This guy better be saving his money, his job will be going to the lowest bidder in the coming recession.
grim says:
December 21, 2022 at 8:15 am
There are some freelancers that are absolutely killing it right now. Good friend is a dev contractor – he’s currently working 2 full-time contract gigs (yes, at the same time), and doing decent side work through Upwork. He’s gotta be north of $350k, and has absolutely zero allegiance to any employer. He’s in Northern NY State too, very low cost of living.
As companies pour money into investing in their WFH platform, why would they need to use a middle man for outsourcing? In time, most of these other jobs will go to other lower cost of living countries that will do it much cheaper.
grim says:
December 21, 2022 at 7:59 am
It’s far more cost effective for employers to leverage work-from-home to exploit domestic wage arbitrage than it is to outsource to a third party. This is the irony of the wfh-outsource argument. Domestic WFH is the single biggest threat to domestic outsourcing that exists right now.
Just for reference, oursourcing a near-minimum wage position in the US right now would run you about $35-40 per hour, and that most likely is going to get you a remote worker anyway. Outsourcing to a brick and mortar could push over $40. A $17-18 wage would put that number close to $50 an hour. These rates assume full time with benefits, with management overhead. Keep in mind, part time rates actually run higher on a per hour basis, $45-55ish would be an accurate estimate).
It’s unlikely you’ll get any economies of scale until you are north of 100 headcount and can shed the overhead of the management, support staff, and physical infrastructure to support those resources. At that point, those price points will begin to make sense.
Touch on this some more. Not saying I am correct, but based on logic, these people are in trouble. They were living large when the economy was on fire. That zero allegiance means they are going to be the first to get dumped when a company starts looking to cut costs. Workers have had it so good, it’s clear as day that labor is in a bubble and a leading factor in the current inflation. No idea why no one acknowledges the role of this bubble in labor playing a major role in our current battle with inflation. These tech dudes absolutely blew up real estate bubbles wherever they concentrated.
“and has absolutely zero allegiance to any employer.”
Good point, I think there is a tremendous business opportunity right now to setup a company whose sole purpose it is to help companies setup off-shore captive operations.
Putting aside the obvious legal considerations of entity creation, etc – there is a significant effort involved in identifying the appropriate labor market, country, city, even physical real estate, then being able to facilitate hiring of key local resource necessary to effectively start up an offshore location.
Today, it’s only the huge players that have the ability to do this. Think your AT&Ts, Bell Canada, UHC/Optum, etc. The reality is, for most, they just don’t have the skillset and knowledge necessary to de-risk the initiative and launch successfully.
Optum for example, is known to open up in close proximity to other large scale outsourcers. Given they are captive (their own employees), they can afford to pay significantly more. They drop into a location, and siphon the TOP TOP talent from pretty much every outsourcer in the market, and are seeing incredible success. They easily become the employer of choice in an off-shore market. Keep in mind, historically Optum was a huge consumer of outsourced labor. That’s changing.
Being able to grease these wheels for companies is incredibly valuable right now. There are an enormous amount of companies with captive backoffice operations in the US and Canada that simply will never consider outsourcing, but want this greater ability to leverage global wage arbitrage.
This is complex, can be capital intensive. Many of these first-timers are looking for partners to help them with Build-Operate-Transfer models, which should be the word-of-the-day for 2023. This means, doing all the work to standup an offshore location, and then after a pre-defined period, handing over the keys, ownership, and employees.
Big big money in this. We’re talking about being able to move into an offshore market, capture 50-60% gross margin for 2-3 years, and then the lump sum on the transfer. The risk is, if you can’t do it, you are left holding the bag.
I’m reading your posts (a few times over) and sounds like you’re contradicting yourselves. Sum it up please. Who benefits, the employer or employee? You’re both writing a thesis statement, give us the cliff notes.
I’ve got two points in the above commentary.
1) Implications of WFH & Outsourcing, and the interplay/dynamic that currently exists between the two. The comment that WFH is the gateway drug to Outsourcing is not accurate, I don’t at all believe that statement, it is absolutely not what I see in the market. In both of these scenarios, the existing high cost employee is losing their job to a lower cost employee. The new employee benefits, because they get access to what is likely a higher-wage position that they wouldn’t have had access to otherwise. Win-Win for Employer and New Employee in both scenarios.
2) The leverage that freelancers/contractors have in the current market. This is more of a comment on high-performing individuals having broader opportunities in the contract space than previously. This is not to say that employers aren’t trying to use contract positions to exploit employees, of course they are. What I’m saying is high-performers are f*cking with this dynamic in ways that are shifting the balance in their favor. In this case, this employee benefits, the employer does not. Attempting in-market wage arbitrage with contractors is a dead-end right now. Why the hell would anyone take a shit contract position with a JC or NYC based company, when they have so many more interesting alternatives.
Yes, good stuff shared here lately.
I can confirm what both of you are saying. To Grim’s point of not needing to worry too much about outsourcing replacing WFH. The issue isn’t that your naturalized worker can now be replaced by an Indian or Samoan for that matter, due to the improvements in work technology. There are huge differences, much of it cultural, that will keep you from outsourcing besides just the costs. Plus, eventually, the amount of places that will allow you to labor cost arbitrage where the literacy levels are high enough will run out. India is only where it is due to their government’s focus on English and technology with the intent of being the primary outsourcing location for America.
To Leftwing’s point, I agree that you need to watch your back. For me, I always had to look out for a detail-oriented, bulletproof subject matter expert in both coldset print and desktop file processing (Premedia) in the NY tri-state commutable area, swooping in and stealing my position right from underneath me. To this end, I have kept close tabs on those in my role at our largest competitors and vendors alike. There are very few people in the Western Hemisphere with as in-depth knowledge as my team (and I) have in this area. With print plant after print plant closing due to the reduced need for print, the number of prepress managers looking for work has increased exponentially. This fear of replacement (especially from the desperate)( provides even more impetus for me to stay ahead of the technology advancements in our area and to differentiate my job knowledge from theirs. This is why my focus over the last five years or so has been in the area of workflow automation for print. Though, we have recently performed demonstrations of our teams’ abilities for many areas of our company that fall out of the purvey of print.
I have always stated that there are those disciplined enough to work from home and there are those that are not capable. About twenty years ago, I used to be extremely jealous of both our developers and our project managers who nearly all worked from home. As I spent more time with them, I realized it was not a free pass to goof off. It was clear that they were extremely productive in their roles. Of course, those in IT had a leg-up in their knowledge of remote access. The project managers gained similar tunneling/VPN know how from always being on the road. My point here being, that discipline and appropriateness of one’s role to not need being located in a central office plays a major part in this. Pump’s doesn’t get it because his role is not suited for it. He just can’t get past his own biases to see how it works for others. Again, it adds another dimension of needing to watch your back. Now Premedia experts from across the country and around the world could potentially replace me instead of just worrying about those in the NY area only.
Finally, exposure time in the office will still matter, especially when it comes to promotions (in most places) if your employ still maintains a central office where the decision makers still work out of. Sadly, in my experiences, the higher up the food chain an employee is. The less likely are they to be work from home. Probably, this is because they are on the road so much and would consider WFH a detriment to their office time since they have so little of it.
The dynamics of WFH are clearly huge and growing. It will be very interesting to see te further development of tools to enhance this area.
Gary, would offer that remote work needs to work for both employer and employee.
My point, distilled, is that much of our conversation on remote work is among a bunch of 40/50 somethings in established careers and pathways. Taking Lib out of the office and expecting him to perform is a no-brainer…equally simple, his employer will accommodate it even if they preferred not to as replacing him is not simple nor cost effective (in the broadest sense, not just comp and benefits).
Different story for GenZs….with few developed career skills and much lower value added in any specific company their replacement costs are low and they can be fairly interchangeable…particularly if we are talking new hires, for example, based in-state from the CS schools of U of Ill or GA Tech. Not every company needs summa cum laudes from Stanford or MIT. Most don’t.
The people of an age and tenure who can evaluate the broad ramifications of logical and foreseeable corporate changes are also likely to be most insulated from these changes…not so the youngsters who don’t yet have the corporate experience to fully understand how their ‘demands’ come with corporate reactions that longer term may be very far off what they intended or hoped for…
Dynamic is shifting to the next new low cost markets.
Peru is becoming the new gem in Latin America, Colombia is transitioning from back-office to higher level knowledge work. Damn near everyone is making a play at Africa. Eastern Europe speaks great English – interesting examples are Poland being a big hub for companies like Amazon and Google now, and it’s becoming the fintech outsourcing location of choice. Serbia and Bulgaria would both be on fire right now if not for Ukraine and the local geopolitical risk. India’s a bit of a yawner really. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand are far more interesting from an Asiapac perspective.
grim,
A concise and legitimate view as opposed to just commentary. This makes sense. Thank you.
Grim,
We are experiencing this Optum (or similar competitor to them) SME poaching. I shared the story here probably a decade ago about how we outsourced one of our compositional platforms to an outfit in India where it took us nearly a year to set the whole thing up. Once up and running, our largest competitor simply bought out the outsourcing company and took our composition platform with it. That was the end of outsourcing to other companies for us. We built our own non-usurpable offices under our own name from that time on. Our India/American liaison was terminated the day of the takeover. It was Office Tiger by the way who we used and losed.
Gary, look at Lib’s second full paragraph above (the ‘watch your back’ one).
That is his defense line if he wants to work out of Costa rica.
The recent hire?
Not only does he not have that defense line from depth of experience (nor will attain it any time soon), the very concept itself is nowhere even on his radar.
The ramifications to an established 50 year old promoting and using remote work is wildly different than the impact on the 24 year old barking for it. The latter is a sheep being led to slaughter.
leftwing,
Much clearer… thank you!
Lib; I would add that whether in the office or WFH one needs to be disciplined. One can goof off in the office as well, not as easy as home, but they certainly can. Incredible amount of wasted time , extended bathroom breaks, coffee and chit chat in the kitchen, more chit chat in the halls, full hour or more lunches away from the desk. Running over to ask some one a question, and more chit chat. In the end there are deadlines to be met, and deliverables expected and projects to be completed. Offices can be a constant place of distraction and wasted time.As you and Left/ Grim and myself have noted it is all still playing out and will continue to. But WFH/ hybrid is not only not going away but will grow.
Some may have a belief that if everyone just went back to the office 5 days a week like pre- pandemic days, all would be fine. That’s a child like fairy tale belief. There is simply no return to the old days.
Draw pictures next time because words are hard.
Flip chart and easel or use an overhead… whatever is older.
“whatever is older.”
snicker
3b,
I mentioned it yesterday… CNBC stated that nearly half of office workers (49%) are back in New York City on an average weekday. I think that might be the number going forward.
That sounds about right Gary. Many of the people I know are in office either once or twice per week. Some are once every two weeks. Though the last day I commuted in by train a few months ago, NY Penn Station was clearly way more than 50% less inhabited than it used to be. Unless, of course, you accounted for the homeless, whose numbers must have tripled.
Fast: Almost 3 years since the start of the pandemic, and slightly less than half back on an average day. So it’s clear this is not a phase , or a one time thing, or if the talk of if WFH/ hybrid becomes common or takes hold, well, it certainly has taken hold. It will continue to unfold going forward.
We have gone. One Step Beyond
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SOJSM46nWwo
Yep.
And I believe that 49% average weekday attendance is actual fact, not commentary.
Let me try to clear up my position on who wfh works with.
It works for your go getters that are self driven and goal oriented. Aka the best of the best. Maybe 20% of the workforce. The rest of the employees can’t handle it.
That’s why i made the comparison yesterday with the avg student in virtual learning compared to lib’s kid. Most will completely fail in a remote setting for learning. They are not driven, they don’t give a f’k, and are looking to do the bare minimum. They will never learn the skills needed on the job to become a successful to the company down the line in a remote setting. These are not go getters that teach themselves. They need to be mentored and led by physical example…and it takes years for them to learn how to become a good employee.
I don’t see how WFH helps the avg individuals or avg company. I don’t see how it ends in person collaboration. The majority of workers need it to be successful. Hence, the majority of businesses need it too to remain successful. Cheap isn’t the only valuation that companies should focus on as it can lead to bad outcomes.
In office attendance surveys are generally reporting higher than reality right now, and the devil is in the details.
Folks that have returned to hybrid, and who are in the office from 1-3 days a week, have a far greater amount of flexibility than they did historically. What I mean by that is, if they skip a day, or a week to work from home, that’s generally not considered a problem anymore. The “in the office 1-3 days” is more of a “make an effort to be in the office 1-3 days”. People are saying “Yes” to this question, but the reality is that on an actual calendar basis, their time in the office is running below what they are self-reporting. Anyone looking at those numbers and expecting to walk into an office and see it 50% full, are going to be shocked when they walk into actual offices and see that they aren’t. Were they last Wednesday during the all-hands, will they be on Friday for the town hall? Yeah, sure, maybe. Are they going to be more full for that gorgeous week in April, when everyone is itching to get out? Sure. Are they going to be in February when it looks miserable and there is a chance of snow? Not on your life. Are they like that every day on a consistent basis, nah.
The only reason companies haven’t forced back the “avg employee” is because they can’t. We have been in a bubble labor market. No idea why no one talks about the labor market being in a bubble, but it is.
There is simply no return to the old days.
Is there ever?
Well, I guess maybe, during a power outage, Covid III, or nuclear war.
And I’d argue that for more than 50% of companies, return to office productivity has been far lower than expected, because it’s chit chat social club. Ironic since the driver is always the same, “We want more interaction and collaboration to drive creativity, blah blah blah, love the office.” Except, no, no, no we don’t.
You’ve got the guy in the corner that nobody even knows, he comes in, talks and interacts with no one in the office, and goes home. Nobody even knows his name.
You’ve got chatty Kathy who thinks every day is her high school reunion, intercepting every new face that walks in the door. That’s the killer, because every company has these people, and they are the first ones to go running back into the office, because they need the social interaction. Yet, they are the biggest negative impact to productivity.
Everyone is obsessed with lunch now, what the serious f*ck. The past two years I got to eat in peace, whenever, now it’s the f*kcing most important part of these people’s days.
You’ve got the half dozen IT guys who don’t even talk to themselves all day long, instead they are sitting on zoom sessions with people all around the world anyway. What the hell’s the point?
Oh, and everyone is on speaker phone now, because we’ve been on speakerphone for the last two years. Wear a headset on a call? Huh? So now you can’t walk through a row of cubes without everyone’s speakers blaring meetings. What? You want me to go sit in the f*cking hotbox phone booth thing? Who the f*ck even paid for that stupid thing. What’s the point when you have a meeting, and even the people who are in the office that day can’t be bothered to sit together in a conference room. Oh, wait, trying to Zoom from the conference room is an unmitigated disaster and waste of time.
HR doesn’t know what the f*ck to do anymore, hand out masks, enforce social distancing, wonder why nobody is even bothering with the stupid iPad attestation. Give me a fuck*ing break, why do I have to to infuriatingly try to type on this dumb kiosk every day. Type my entire email in? And employee id? Reason for visiting? What desk did I reserve? I didn’t reserve a god damn desk, I sit in the same place every time. HR and Facilities now looking at the millions of dollars invested in software and hardware and scratching their heads. I got an idea, let’s do a lunch and learn about the kiosk and desk reservation tool again.
You’ve got the lonely CEO trying to show up and make it known they are in the office every day by being on camera as much as humanly possible. It’s great, it’s amazing, every day employees make a point to do a drive by to genuflect and show face, why, who knows.
Flexibility
Gig Work.
What workers really need is stability-and health insurance.
I guess if you make enough from your gig that you can put down a wad of cash on a home your “gig” or “unstable” work history might be good enough for a bank.
What do you tell them on a mortgage application when they ask you how long you worked at your current job?
So many young workers are “gigging it” without health insurance. Not really a good thing either.
What??? You want to take away all of the nepotism based jobs? Where are the connected going to work and make six figure salaries? This is absolutely inhumane.
You’ve got the guy in the corner that nobody even knows, he comes in, talks and interacts with no one in the office, and goes home. Nobody even knows his name.
And don’t forget the massive number of people who work off the books and stick it to the man. Yes, one of the greatest unintended consequences of stimulus.
Would love to see the PPP abusers jailed with them.
Everyone is obsessed with lunch now, what the serious f*ck. The past two years I got to eat in peace, whenever, now it’s the f*kcing most important part of these people’s days.
You must be talking about management, who enjoy a take out spread every day from *wink wink* xyz corporation while the rest are given a 30 minute lunch with most of it spent waiting for the hamburger in the minimally staffed company cafeteria. Or waiting for the uber eats guy on his bicycle to get there.
Management always loves their best employees.
Allows them to get time for a rub and tug while not having to worry about anything, the best employees just know what to do and don’t need them anyway most of the time.
The best employees are problem solvers by themselves and don’t need to be handheld day to day. Not only that, but they know their role better than someone who is trying to micromanage them.
I keep a clear line between office and home. I am 2x-3x more productive in the office. Always been that way. In college I studied in libraries and empty classrooms. Always got zero done at home.
grim says:
December 21, 2022 at 10:27 am
And I’d argue that for more than 50% of companies, return to office productivity has been far lower than expected, because it’s chit chat social club. Ironic since the driver is always the same
YMMV, I suppose.
Everyone wants to chat with me at work. They are sick of me at home.
Yeah last place I was at catered lunch for everyone who came into the office every day, on the house. It was their attempt to create some incentive to have folks come regularly. They rotated through a bunch places, usually had a decent spread.
I’d wager a bet that catering spend has been through the roof lately. Every on-site meeting I’ve been part of has intentionally had a longer-agenda, because it made sense to do if you had critical mass. But, unlike in the past where you’d just break at lunch, or grab the afternoon, now it’s almost always a catered affair.
Best work from home job ever. Show up and choose the right partner, you won’t be stepping back into the office for the rest of your life.
https://bit.ly/3HU6aOU
Bolt-ons are kinda pathetic imho
What happens re:WFH to those aged 23-35 who in many cases have diminished social skills from way too much screen time and even less human interaction. How do you develop leadership (not just C suite but mid-level) from a pool of workers in said above group without measurable face to face work environment? At some point, with enough improperly developed managers / leaders, a company will suffer and in such a situation, no quick fix.
In addition, most companies need a lot of worker bees, they don’t have to be rock starts nor do they need a diploma from a top school. Won’t this group in time via market forces see their wages drop because another person will take the roll for $1 less per hour or more? Thinking when economy slows or AI starts to displace more of these roles WFH for many means income reduction.
Grim: You described it quite accurately, right down to the chatty Kathy. I know people who go to the office or 3 days a week and have said after the initial newness of it wore off of seeing people in person, it’s a chore to go in. Zoom meetings in the office which could be done at home, endless chit chat even worse than pre pandemic, and yes lots of lunch’s that are catered and go on for a couple of ours. They said it feels like a big open house every day. So. now it’s go to the office for fun / waste time, and do the actual work at home. One friend of mines company mandated 3 days in the office, and after only 2 weeks cut it back to 2 days.
They can handwash driverless cars
The replacement for Social Security, Boomers Lifeline- None for you kiddies: money to flow into Wall Street- with automatic enrollment, a whopping ten free fills of your gasoline tank, and a chain to keep you on the grindstone till you are 70 in order to retire. And rainy day savings, how cute- great for gig workers without health insurance- better save like crazy cause we bill like rabid wolverines-and you won’t be getting paid while you are at home trying to recover:
Major 401(k) changes will see government give some workers $1,000, impose automatic enrollment at up to 10% of pay, raise age for required withdrawals and allow rainy day savings accounts
The Retirement Security and Savings Act, which is poised to be passed before the end of the year, aims to impose automatic enrollment into retirement plans at up to 10 percent of pay.
When I worked in NYC pre-tech meltdown ver. 1
Company gave “free” massages. They kept a sign-in sheet at the front desk and at our appointed time we’d go to a curtained “cube” and get a pro 1/2 hour massage.
Was pretty awesome. We had a couple a babes in the office.
One was very friendly. My buddy pulled me away from her at a Christmas party.
Claimed to be “saving my marriage” at the time. Offices can be very distracting.
Wall Street Xmas parties were legendary back in the day. Shocking some of the stuff that went on, amazing looking back at it today. And, what happened at the party stayed at the party. The next day it was like nothing happened, and boy stuff certainly happened!
Could you imagine missing out on office fun in your 20s and 30s? People are becoming LAME. You were born to keep to yourself alone at home all day swiping a screen…right. WTF have we become. Do college kids even go out and party anymore? Do people even have fun anymore? What a waste of life for some people out there.
Ex says:
December 21, 2022 at 11:19 am
When I worked in NYC pre-tech meltdown ver. 1
Company gave “free” massages. They kept a sign-in sheet at the front desk and at our appointed time we’d go to a curtained “cube” and get a pro 1/2 hour massage.
Was pretty awesome. We had a couple a babes in the office.
One was very friendly. My buddy pulled me away from her at a Christmas party.
Claimed to be “saving my marriage” at the time. Offices can be very distracting.
Seriously, you have to learn to have fun with people and treat social interactions like a sitcom comedy. Laugh at them, and enjoy the moment.
3b says:
December 21, 2022 at 11:10 am
Grim: You described it quite accurately, right down to the chatty Kathy. I know people who go to the office or 3 days a week and have said after the initial newness of it wore off of seeing people in person, it’s a chore to go in. Zoom meetings in the office which could be done at home, endless chit chat even worse than pre pandemic, and yes lots of lunch’s that are catered and go on for a couple of ours. They said it feels like a big open house every day. So. now it’s go to the office for fun / waste time, and do the actual work at home. One friend of mines company mandated 3 days in the office, and after only 2 weeks cut it back to 2 days.
People are characters, 3b. Make the most of it. Don’t be that character that is miserable and hates people.
2015: Trump and Melania report negative income of $31 million with a taxable income of $0. Hit with alternative minimum tax of $641,931
2016: Negative income of $31.2 million, taxable income $0. Pay alternative minimum tax of $750
2017: Negative income $12.8 million, $0 taxable income. Pay alternative minimum tax of $750
2018: In the black – total income $24.4 million, taxable income $22.9 million. Pay $999,466 in federal income tax
2019: Total income $4.4 million, $2.97 in taxable income. Pay $133,445 in taxes
2020: Negative income $4.7 million, $0 in taxable income. Trumps claim a refund of $5.5 million
We are sending these individuals down a path of a pain. A lot of these individuals are completely f/ed. Scared to interact with people and lack any kind of mentorship to provide them with skills needed to become successful 40 year old workers that are supposed to then mentor the coming generations. It’s all f/ed, and it’s because of human nature. 40-70 year olds completely threw these kids under the bus in their obsession with taking the easy road at the peak of their careers. They don’t want to teach the next generation, they just want to collect top pay, and complete their task at home with minimum distractions from the younger co-workers.
This will end well…
Outsource says:
December 21, 2022 at 11:08 am
What happens re:WFH to those aged 23-35 who in many cases have diminished social skills from way too much screen time and even less human interaction. How do you develop leadership (not just C suite but mid-level) from a pool of workers in said above group without measurable face to face work environment? At some point, with enough improperly developed managers / leaders, a company will suffer and in such a situation, no quick fix.
What happens re:WFH to those aged 23-35 who in many cases have diminished social skills from way too much screen time and even less human interaction. How do you develop leadership (not just C suite but mid-level) from a pool of workers in said above group without measurable face to face work environment? At some point, with enough improperly developed managers / leaders, a company will suffer and in such a situation, no quick fix.
Those hippies out in California in the 60s seemed to have very easily transcended this very same challenge. Similar generational shift, similar counter-culture position, similar gaps in personality and viewpoint, similar criticisms about work ethic, and whatever else the previous generation didn’t like about them. I’m sure at some point in the 90’s shifts in dress code were being touted as leading indicators of corporate decline too. Good lord, the audacity of that salesperson to not wear a tie. Don’t mistake your disgust of change for anyone else’s capacity to execute or deliver value.
A few years ago a colleague of mine and I presented to the Facebook and Instagram teams over on Hacker Way. He wore a hoodie, I had a Joy Division T-Shirt on (like, a real one), jeans, and sneakers. This was for a $20-30 million dollar ACV deal. We all got lunch at that noodle shop on campus, the one on the corner of the building (15 or 17) by the big open quad area.
3b,
At my old IB a dozen years back this woman (maybe 32), recently divorced was on the prowl to get laid. Ok face but nice body. She tried with me but I was not up for dipping pen in co. ink. Did that in my 20s..over the drama. She managed a small team of 1 PM (kind of pretty boy) and 1 young , really cute, female analyst. They sat in glass office in front of me. About a week after Christmas party, I walk into office and room is empty. Come to find out the woman had a threesome with her two reports and harassed the girl afterwards to point where she disclosed affair to her vendor. The guy moved elsewhere, stayed with company somehow..but the two girls were never seen from again.
You all sound like you should be yelling at neighborhood kids for playing to close to the azaleas on your front lawn.
That’s the problem with this hybrid bs where every employee is on their own damn schedule. It’s pure chaos. What’s the point of going into the office when everyone is not there? Wtf is the point of being a part of a team if no one shows up and only communicate through digital sources? I would hate to be CEO or own a big business right now that deals with white collar workers. It must be a living hell. They prob can’t wait for the recession to justify letting people go and clean up this mess.
grim says:
December 21, 2022 at 10:27 am
So completely clueless.
Grim,
This is not an attack on you, so don’t take it that way.
I can’t stand the lack of professionalism these days. So many teachers don’t put on a tie anymore and it makes me sick. Wtf kind of professional are you? I wear that tie proudly. It means I give a chit about myself and my profession. I put the extra effort in that it takes to look and be a professional. America is going down a dangerous path when you have arrogant self entitled brats that decide it’s okay to show up in sweat pants to a f/ing important business meeting. I would never do business with these clowns. Don’t have the work ethic to dress professionally? GTFOH. There is the door.
“A few years ago a colleague of mine and I presented to the Facebook and Instagram teams over on Hacker Way. He wore a hoodie, I had a Joy Division T-Shirt on, jeans, and sneakers. This was for a $20-30 million dollar ACV deal. We all got lunch at that noodle shop on campus, the one on the corner of the building by the big open quad area”
What’s next? Getting married in sweats and sandals? When do cops start wearing sweat pants with sandals? People are lost in the woods….bumble labor market will do that. Workers just do whatever they want and managers basically can’t do a damn thing to stop it.
Best entrepreneurs in the game agree with me and want their workers in a centralized location that is organized and efficient to getting chit done.
Libturd says:
December 21, 2022 at 12:20 pm
So completely clueless.
The difference between my position and yours is that you are making up scenarios in your head, I’m simply noting real-world observations from the clients and businesses I interact with on a daily basis.
We have roughly 700 clients in my current firm, and I have a fairly good cross-section view into their position on work, what they are doing internally, and where their real challenges lie. The scenario you posed above does not exist.
You want real problems? Attrition is running wild in the US right now, it’s still incredibly difficult to keep employees. Wage compression and the need for mid-tier wage increases across existing roles is creating a painful dynamic against CFOs attempting to take a more defensive position. Paying more to hire net new, and then failing to pay more to existing staff, so now you’ve got high attrition across multiple tiers of associates. We know the panacea, it’s being able to provide flexibility, but legacy industries are struggling with how to redefine what work even means in a more flexible ecosystem. There are folks willing to take those lower-wage jobs, but it’s on their terms. Unfortunately, not many employers are willing to pay what it takes to attract and retain decent candidates for brick and mortar jobs now. Too many employers are still anchored on what minimum wage was, and meant, 4 or 5 years ago.
$15? What $15. You can’t hire anyone for $15. My nephew is working nights at UPS again as a certified forklift operator and he’s at around $24 or $25 an hour. That ain’t bad for a college kid doing work after school.
Bystander: We had some real personal type scandals back in the day, all hush hush, eventually stuff got out, but it was never discussed openly. Saw some shocking things myself. I believe that is pretty much over today, just would not be tolerated, and too much risk for being sued and reputations destroyed.
Casual Fridays in the summer became casual Fridays year round, which then became casual everyday. Is Brooks Brothers and Hickey Freeman and Barney’s, and Paul Stuart even around any more?
Blumpkin, stop being an obtuse mule. 35 and under crowd truly don’t give a flying f* about office noodling. They have their social group at home where they can smoke up, tat out and remain free from company politics and judgement. They see how things work for them first and not the company. They grew up with way more knowledge and data at their finger-tips. They see the career game differently. They have no loyalty and you are an idiot for staying at company more than 4 years getting 2% raises. They scare the f* out of the old 50/60s farts running the place bc they can’t control them. Gen X is still to freaking loyal. I see it all the time. We think showing stability and loyalty is source of pride yet people get screwed for it. Younger crowd has it right given how corp America has shown little loyalty to employees for decades now. WFH is here for good unless the govt. decides a depression & 15-20% unemployment will reset the power for companies. They just don’t have the political balls for that type of risk and upheaval now.
12:12 geeeezus
Grim: Don’t do it to yourself!
Since then, he has written off $2.2 million in property taxes as a business expense — even as the law allows individuals to write off only $10,000 in property taxes a year.
Very Stable Genius says:
December 21, 2022 at 12:08 pm
2015: Trump and Melania report negative income of $31 million with a taxable income of $0. Hit with alternative minimum tax of $641,931
2016: Negative income of $31.2 million, taxable income $0. Pay alternative minimum tax of $750
2017: Negative income $12.8 million, $0 taxable income. Pay alternative minimum tax of $750
2018: In the black – total income $24.4 million, taxable income $22.9 million. Pay $999,466 in federal income tax
2019: Total income $4.4 million, $2.97 in taxable income. Pay $133,445 in taxes
2020: Negative income $4.7 million, $0 in taxable income. Trumps claim a refund of $5.5 million
Lib: You just have to understand that there are a few people that are innate ability to see and understand things that mere mortals don’t have. It’s a gift.
aka labor market bubble…this is not normal.
“You want real problems? Attrition is running wild in the US right now, it’s still incredibly difficult to keep employees. Wage compression and the need for mid-tier wage increases across existing roles is creating a painful dynamic against CFOs attempting to take a more defensive position. Paying more to hire net new, and then failing to pay more to existing staff, so now you’ve got high attrition across multiple tiers of associates. We know the panacea, it’s being able to provide flexibility, but legacy industries are struggling with how to redefine what work even means in a more flexible ecosystem. There are folks willing to take those lower-wage jobs, but it’s on their terms. Unfortunately, not many employers are willing to pay what it takes to attract and retain decent candidates for brick and mortar jobs now. Too many employers are still anchored on what minimum wage was, and meant, 4 or 5 years ago.”
12:42 Tax Fraud??! People go to jail for that right?
I feel bad for these people…lost in the woods.
“They have their social group at home where they can smoke up, tat out and remain free from company politics and judgement.”
12:39 true true.
You are allowed to write off property taxes in full as a business expense.
Labor market bubble leading to inflation.
“They have no loyalty and you are an idiot for staying at company more than 4 years getting 2% raises. They scare the f* out of the old 50/60s farts running the place bc they can’t control them.”
You think it’s good for the economy and business when all these employees jump around year to year getting raises? Where is the stability? You know how much this is costing companies long-term having a musical chair of employees…and having to pay them more and more after each game ends? Epic labor bubble…
VSG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z8SpgmF0sA
12:42 Tax Fraud??! People go to jail for that right?
Don’t get your hopes up. That only applies to plebs.
Bystander,
Agreed. No reason to have loyalty without a union and a pension.
It’s the union and the pension that strengthens the “thin blue line.”
Take that away from them and all you will have is gun toting Paul Blart Mall Cops.
Pretty close anyway. W Post did a good article on the Uvalde Clown Show. Have to give the WP team credit on this style of article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2022/uvalde-shooting-victims-delayed-response/?itid=hp_national_p017_f004
Zelensky to meet Biden in Washington and address Congress.
Begging like a pan handler. Keep your grubby fingers off my tax dollars.
Why don’t you go pan handle down at Mar a Lago?
Those who enjoy outsourcing so much should get themselves virtual healthcare.
I’ll take the one with the “so called” bolt-ons. Cause I work with some like her, they aren’t always bolt-ons- even if they are, so what? Kind of a misogynist comment.
Trying to find articles about the labor bubble….so far, only found this. It’s crazy how NO ONE is talking about the biggest bubble of them…the labor market.
“That sounds like a company chief reflecting on a management tactic from the 1980s. But Carey didn’t come out of a time machine. After three years of coping with a poor hand in a labor-squeezed economy, which followed a decade of gradually deteriorating leverage, companies are seeing that this year’s slowdown may have nudged the pendulum back in their direction.
Daniel Greenleaf felt so strongly about this perceived change of fortune, he went public with a strange sort of victory dance. “Rising inflation and a market downturn guarantee layoffs,” the CEO of Denver-based Modivcare, a $2 billion health services company, recently scolded young workers on the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, commenting about the U.S. economy in general. “The days of expecting employers to be grateful for your application will be gone soon.””
https://chiefexecutive.net/leading-through-the-labor-bubble/
From that same article. What I get from this: say goodbye to high returns on investments, esp the stock market. Read this and understand it is bad for business and economic growth. Get used to paying top dollar for half-ass work.
“Labor Days
But if you’re expecting a quick rebalancing of the relationship between labor and management, you’re likely to be disappointed. The reality is that the newly empowered American employee will remain the newly empowered American employee for some time, even if there is a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
“Lots of folks in leadership have a nostalgia for days when they had more leverage,” says Claire Deason, an employment lawyer at the firm Littler Mendelson. “But it would be a mistake—and a costly one—to assume that even if there are forces in the economy that benefit employers over employees, we will go back in time.”
What happens when the newly empowered American worker meets a slowing economy? We’re about to find out.
Richard Carey had a strange experience recently: After years of using every possible tactic to recruit and retain scarce manufacturing employees, the CEO of Metal Ware laid off a handful of people when a supplier’s aluminum mill went down. Carey’s team ranked its employees and pared those with the shoddiest attendance and overall performance.
“There was somewhat of a fear factor there for employees,” says Carey, whose company, based in Two Rivers, Wisconsin, makes metal items ranging from food dehydrators to candle-wax pitchers. “But overall, it had a very positive cultural impact on the company, producing better attendance in general. It told people that we don’t forget about those who do come in when they’re supposed to, and that’s why they’re still here.”
Metal Ware CEO Richard Carey
That sounds like a company chief reflecting on a management tactic from the 1980s. But Carey didn’t come out of a time machine. After three years of coping with a poor hand in a labor-squeezed economy, which followed a decade of gradually deteriorating leverage, companies are seeing that this year’s slowdown may have nudged the pendulum back in their direction.
Daniel Greenleaf felt so strongly about this perceived change of fortune, he went public with a strange sort of victory dance. “Rising inflation and a market downturn guarantee layoffs,” the CEO of Denver-based Modivcare, a $2 billion health services company, recently scolded young workers on the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, commenting about the U.S. economy in general. “The days of expecting employers to be grateful for your application will be gone soon.”
Thousands of new layoffs at tech companies, not just the dozen or so at Metal Ware, seem to reinforce this notion. In Chicago, for example, online discounter Groupon recently laid off 500 employees, while Internet healthcare platform GoHealth stripped 800 of their jobs. Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai warned staff of the Google parent to work with “greater urgency, sharper focus and more hunger than we’ve shown on sunnier days,” while Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg vowed in July that the Facebook owner will “get more done with fewer resources.”
Many companies in the general economy are trimming as well, from Walmart, which quietly eliminated a few hundred management jobs, and Steelcase, which recently cut 180 salaried jobs amid declining orders and other woes, to Ford, which is phasing out thousands of positions. About half of respondents to a PwC survey of executives said they’re planning to reduce head counts.
A recent rail strike threat, along with fledgling and abruptly rising unionization efforts at some high-profile companies, including Amazon and Starbucks, also lend the impression that corporate management now somehow has gotten enough of an upper hand to frustrate employees. Why else would workers be flirting with commercial unions after decades of decline in the labor movement?
“The exuberance that got to a pretty significant level of companies fighting for talent and throwing a lot at that talent—that pendulum is swinging back to people realizing that it doesn’t go on forever, and maybe I should just stay where I am, because it’s less risky,” says Coco Brown, founder of Athena Alliance, a networking group for female CEOs.
Labor Days
But if you’re expecting a quick rebalancing of the relationship between labor and management, you’re likely to be disappointed. The reality is that the newly empowered American employee will remain the newly empowered American employee for some time, even if there is a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
“Lots of folks in leadership have a nostalgia for days when they had more leverage,” says Claire Deason, an employment lawyer at the firm Littler Mendelson. “But it would be a mistake—and a costly one—to assume that even if there are forces in the economy that benefit employers over employees, we will go back in time.”
Soberly, many CEOs seem to recognize Deason’s point even after the onset of a slowdown in 2022. Post-pandemic, pay has already skyrocketed enough to make discussion of minimum wage laws practically moot, but 59 percent of CEOs surveyed by Chief Executive in August said they’re upping employees’ base pay this year anyway, in an effort to retain top talent. Also, 54 percent are increasing access to upskilling programs, and 48 percent are enhancing sales commission rates.
And when it came to cutting spending amid a recession, reducing headcounts ranked as only the No. 3 gambit anticipated by CEOs for the second half of this year, with only 23 percent of them planning such moves. Reducing capital expenditures ranked as the No. 1 planned measure, meanwhile, with 31 percent, followed by expected cuts in travel and entertainment outlays, with 29 percent.
There are several reasons for this less-seismic assessment by CEOs. One is demographics: The overwhelming statistics that led to today’s historic labor squeeze haven’t abated. Approximately 400,000 fewer Americans are turning 18 each year. Meanwhile, according to Pew Research, the ranks of retirees 55 years and older have grown by 3.5 million in the last two years, while during the previous decade that cohort grew by only about a million retirees per year.
Also, in the absence of a uniform and comprehensive recession, as in the early 1980s, many industries and companies will continue to experience insatiable demand for labor even as some other sectors leak employees. That’s part of the continued flywheel of momentum from the overwhelming labor shortage birthed during the pandemic. Pundits talk about the current “full-job recession” in contrast to the “jobless recovery” of 2009 to 2011.
Personal Priorities
Today’s employees are different, as well as scarcer. Facilitated by government financial largess during Covid and freed from former routines by remote technology, workers are increasingly willing to “stick it to the man,” and more willing to bet on themselves for the long term.
“They aren’t necessarily as interested in the career aspect of things,” says Brian Niccol, CEO of Newport Beach, California–based Chipotle, the fast feeder where there have been rumblings of a unionization drive. “Generally, it’s much more like, ‘What’s the job right now?’ And they’re very much into making a living to support their lifestyle and experiences versus making a career.””
Demographics folks…it drives everything. You might not realize it, but those easy 401k passive investments you had your entire life are over. It was only easy because it was based on a ponzi scheme of growing population. Good luck with that in an environment of dropping population growth. Assets are going to get crushed as there is less people competing for them along with an economy that might not grow.
They need to start importing legal immigrants asap. There is a huge price to pay for a generation that is not having kids.
Perfect storm. Combined with lower population growth rate, and the impact of covid on the labor force, it is f/ed. Bad time for business.
“Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell struck a particularly somber note at his press conference earlier this week when he mentioned that one reason the labor market is so tight right now is that many workers died from COVID-19.
The big picture: Economists have theorized for a while about the impact of COVID deaths on the labor market. Now, research has started to emerge and key public figures like Powell are starting to talk about it explicitly.
“Close to a half a million who would have been working … died from COVID,” Powell said while talking about the U.S. labor shortage.
Go deeper: In a footnote to a speech he gave on Nov. 30, Powell estimates that 400,000 working-age Americans died in excess of what was anticipated pre-pandemic.”
State of play: Compared to pre-pandemic projections, there are around 3.5 million people effectively missing from the American workforce, as Powell explained in that speech at the Brookings Institution.
This number includes older workers who left the labor force earlier than expected. “These excess retirements might now account for more than 2 million of the … shortfall,” he said.
The other 1.5 million comes from a decline in immigration and “a surge in deaths.”
Overall, 1.09 million Americans lost their lives to COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Our thought bubble: The role these deaths play in the economy often gets overlooked, possibly because it’s so devastating to contemplate.
But when considering the state of the U.S. workplace, it’s worth remembering that many Americans lost colleagues, friends and loved ones over the past few years. It’s a toll that will take many years to understand and lifetimes to grieve.
Good conversation today.
A nurse I was once friends with claimed that trysts between hospital staff was a common thing at her hospital.
JJ where are you!!!???
Welcome to America, hope you enjoyed your short stay.
Got a problem? Call a cop. Now you have two problems. Or in this case, he no longer has any more problems. Forever.
‘It wasn’t me’: Footage shows millionaire tech entrepreneur’s final words after being fatally shot by a trigger-happy cop while defending his home from a suspected burglar
Victim is shot four times by police in swanky Austin neighborhood
Rajan Moonesinghe is armed because he suspects an intruder on his property
An officer shouts: ‘Drop the gun’ but fires before he finishes sentence
As he lies dying on the ground, Moonesinghe says to officers: ‘It wasn’t me’
We have a labor economist on staff that I’m close with.
He shared some data on low end wage growth and the impacts to higher paid roles in the same company. It was about a 2 year lag. So even if we see low end wage growth stop, right now, we still have two years of follow on wage pressure to work through. The wage compression we talked about a few weeks ago will spring back.
Even if companies refuse to give raises, they’ll still pay this penalty as higher wage new hires move into those roles and have to be backfilled at higher current wages.
Pay now or pay later, but you’ll pay.
A nurse I was once friends with claimed that trysts between hospital staff was a common thing at her hospital.
This is a valid claim.
Marital status doesn’t matter. It’s all just body parts to us.
Grim,
Thanks for the share. That makes sense. Looks like it’s going to take some time for inflation to stop. Stock market pain will continue.
A problem compounded by the fact that those who haven’t died, but who rode the wave of decades of favorable economic policy have certainly at very least entertained the idea of early retirement.
You think it’s good for the economy and business when all these employees jump around year to year getting raises? Where is the stability?
Increased labor mobility is positive towards economic growth.
Ex/3b,
It is a true story. Only reason that it got out with detail in bc the woman broke into the girls vendor email account and sent a note to our financial accounting team, stating that ‘she was an alcoholic and compulsive liar so don’t believe a word that I say’. It is top 5 but I have at least two others which involved arrests at work, kidnapping and harassment. Another day..
Blumpy, why the hell do you feel sorry for CEOs? Last year, they gave 2-3% raises in face of 10% or more inflation. They will do same this year. Seriously, f* them. They care about stock price and nothing else.
Gorgeous gem of a day. Took a little drive to Ojai:
Topa Topa Mtns.
Bystander: I don’t doubt it, had one with a well known guy at the time, his secretary from Staten Island and her fiancé NYPD cop, oh and a phone. But as you says it’s for another day.
Are those in the photo that Phoenix posted?
Ex says:
December 21, 2022 at 3:44 pm
Topa Topa Mtns.
https://www.app.com/story/news/local/redevelopment/2022/12/21/netflix-studio-fort-monmouth-nj/69746678007/?fbclid=IwAR0jvu9qsajwzO1xy-UDM90bVHtDJu8DuvT1zCZf7HGHn7YlGu_zna1wV3E
While Netflix’s ears were certainly piqued by the tax incentives Murphy dangled before it, in the end, one of the biggest selling points, was the land. Dalal said its not easy to find a “large swath of land” near a major metropolitan location such as New York City. Dalal said the company’s studios in Georgia, Toronto and Brooklyn will stay open even after the Fort Monmouth facility is built.
Chgo: I understand Microsoft is considering buying Netflix.
No, mine were better- bolt ons or not.
chicagofinance says:
December 21, 2022 at 3:48 pm
Are those in the photo that Phoenix posted?
Ex says:
December 21, 2022 at 3:44 pm
Topa Topa Mtns.
Maybe I am wrong, but this is the way I see it: it leads to higher costs, and forces the company to constantly train new hires instead of helping them develop and grow to what the company needs.
I think there has to be a happy medium. You want some labor mobility, but you don’t want a revolving door of employees. You want some consistency. You want people to develop into leaders in your company. You don’t want to develop them and have them jump ship immediately after.
grim says:
December 21, 2022 at 3:32 pm
You think it’s good for the economy and business when all these employees jump around year to year getting raises? Where is the stability?
Increased labor mobility is positive towards economic growth.
Any blanks to fill in?
https://www.rlsmedia.com/article/nj-elementary-school-teacher-charged-giving-13-year-old-boy-vodka-vapes-thc-drops
3:48 no those were Mount Pinatubo.
Yup.
“$TSLA is an auto OEM, not a high gross margin, recurring revenue, capex light tech stock!
During recession, if demand for new cars declines, $TSLA revenue will plummet whereas its fixed cost structure will remain more or less unchanged.
$TSLA is a cyclical, end of story.
Cyclicals boom during the good times (when Fed is easy and the music is playing) and they tank more than the indices during the bust (when Fed is tight and the music has stopped).
No auto-OEM CEO in recorded history has been able to fight the business cycle. $TSLA is a cyclical.
For the record –
I’m not a Tesla hater. Love the business, own the car.
Patiently waiting to invest in $TSLA sometime during Q1 when Mr. Market sees the light and the indices start pricing in the looming recession.”
“Don’t mistake your disgust of change for anyone else’s capacity to execute or deliver value.”
Solid quote.
“There are folks willing to take those lower-wage jobs, but it’s on their terms.”
Have a nephew, CS/SD, just clicked 30, moved to CO. Picked up two remote SD jobs, one with a regional bank (not sure which area) and another some database thing for an established company. Companies not in the same part of the country. Probably does 30 hours a week, for both. My guess is he’s at around two thirds or so of what he would be ‘normally’ salaried for each job. Combined he’s doing, what 130% of ‘normal’ for no more work. Good scheme, if it works over the long term…
“Is Brooks Brothers and Hickey Freeman and Barney’s, and Paul Stuart even around any more?”
Paul Stuart is solid, still. They and Brooks Bros saved me so many times, Vanderbilt Ave…I didn’t run to biz school like all my peers (mostly Wharton) after the 87-89 meltdowns. Just went there any weekend I could, Amtrak, Penn Station. Come back early Monday morning, in the suit I left in lol…buy new shirt, socks, usually a tie…they’d steam the pants. Grab the garment bag, head to the gym for a shower, change and hit the office across the street…fun times. Guess that was my WFH…ha.
“I understand Microsoft is considering buying Netflix.”
Good luck with antitrust on that one at FTC/Justice…Zuck can’t get a tiny fitness app through….
I still only wear jeans on Fridays. Can’t ever see going back 5 days. 2-3 is fine.
Live like Petty:
https://www.dirt.com/gallery/entertainers/musicians/tom-petty-house-malibu-1203607418/