Home price gains continue to slow

From the WSJ:

Home Prices Fell in October for Fourth Straight Month’

Home prices declined in October from the previous month as higher mortgage interest rates continued to weigh on home-buying demand.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, fell 0.5% in October compared with September, the fourth straight month-over-month decline.

On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 9.2% in October, down from a 10.7% annual rate the prior month.

A surge in mortgage rates this year brought an end to a pandemic-driven housing boomthat drove up sales prices and pushed many buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for 10 straight months through November.

Many economists expect prices to continue to slide from their spring peaks, with some calling for year-over-year price declines in 2023. So far this year, prices are down 3% from their June highs, according to the Case-Shiller index. Prices are declining fastest in West Coast markets, such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, where from September to October they fell 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively.

“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken.”

The Case-Shiller 10-city index gained 8% over the year ended in October, compared with a 9.6% increase in September. The 20-city index rose 8.6%, after an annual gain of 10.4% in September. Price growth decelerated in all of the 20 cities.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

208 Responses to Home price gains continue to slow

  1. grim says:

    Interesting, NY Metro was the strongest index in October, logging the smallest MOM decline.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-corelogic-case-shiller-index-152100441.html

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    NY Metro is always the slog. It’s like turning a barge, takes forever but prices in this area are never drastic on the downside. They seem to rise faster than they fall and when they fall, it isn’t that much. I say it often; cockroaches and house prices in the NY metro are the only things that will survive a nuclear blast. Looking at various areas from Montvale to Fords reveals nothing under 400K worth even considering. The PITI on a 400K purchase with 20% down will cost you about $3,000 per month. That’s a good chunk of wood for a box on a 50 x 100 lot.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    I get that this is probably a sale due to an older person going to a facility but geezus, declutter the place at least. Omg. And why do muppets suck when it comes to décor? The eye appeal of some of these joints is painful!

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/lodi/70-liberty-st-lodi-nj-07644–2006690211

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    500K for a box and you get to shake hands with your neighbor leaning out the window:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/saddle-brook/241-alberta-dr-saddle-brook-nj-07663–1103456502

  5. Juice Box says:

    Seems I am not the only one concerned about a new Covid variant (perhaps more deadly) coming out of China as Covid burns through their population.

    “ — Alarmed by China’s surge in Covid cases after the sudden end of its “zero-Covid” measures, the Biden administration is considering new rules for travelers from China, such as testing on arrival in the U.S. and additional tracking, two U.S. officials tell NBC News.

    The officials say the U.S. and other countries are concerned that China may not be transparently reporting Covid data — specifically, viral genomic sequence data — needed to assess the spread and identify any variants of concern.

    The officials said the Biden administration was considering steps similar to those already taken by Japan, which said Tuesday that all travelers from mainland China would be tested on arrival, and Malaysia, which has stepped up tracking and surveillance of travelers from China.”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-biden-considers-china-new-covid-rules-travel-virus-spreads-rcna63435

  6. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,
    Is this what you meant by forced air? Looks like someone was trying to ventilate in Elmwood Park:

    A New Milford woman was expected to survive her injuries after authorities said she was shot at a home in Elmwood Park early Tuesday evening.

    Police were searching for the gunman, Elmwood Park Police Chief Michael Foligno said following the shooting shortly before 5:30 p.m. Dec. 27.

    A Bergen County Regional SWAT team made entry at the home at 113 Lincoln Avenue, which the chief said is owned by the suspect’s girlfriend, but he wasn’t there.

  7. Phoenix says:

    113 Lincoln Avenue

    Even same street… Happy Holidays America, coming soon to a theater near you!

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Signs we are getting close to the bottom?

    Lib, remember how you blasted those investments as POSs all last decade? How that work out? You missed out on insane opportunities.

    Grim says:
    December 27, 2022 at 8:20 pm
    I’d rather buy a half kilo bar of platinum than a single bitcoin.

    Libturd says:
    December 27, 2022 at 8:50 pm
    Its really funny. If you asked me the three most overvalued POS investments available 9 months ago, I would have told you META, TSLA and any Crypto.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Those pos’s beat the chit out of anything out there. Anyone that didn’t sell, hopefully learned a lesson about cycles and the FED. Hopefully, they take advantage of the new cycle when it comes and this time sells high.

  10. 3b says:

    Fast: There were still lots of people putting 5 and 10 percent down, first time buyers. My wife says according to the real estate people in her law office they rarely have people with 20 percent down unless it’s proceeds from a sale.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    And how many were straight up cash purposes? If you think someone buying cash is looking to buy and sell on the short side, I would argue otherwise. They parked that cash long-term.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I just don’t see the inventory opening up in north jersey. It’s too tight. It’s rare that you find a nice home for sale in north jersey. So difficult to find. They usually never even make to market as a friend or family member is waiting in line to buy it. POS’s….houses that have to be renovated are where you will find homes available and for a price drop.

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s rare that you find a nice home for sale in north jersey.

    Agree with this. Like I said, cockroaches and house prices in this area are the only guarantees… along with death and taxes, I’ll add. From here on out, when/if I sell and despite mortgage rates, I’d tack a 7 handle on my ask price. Why not?

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    10% down on a 500k purchase will cost you $3,500 per month on PITI. Tack on the the cost of living on a weekly basis and that’s a heavy haul!

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Natural gas about to take out 2018 highs. Oil down 2%, Natural Gas down 12% today. As an old Energy investor, Nat Gas often tells you where Energy is going. There is tremendous capacity entering the market. All BOOMS, lead to BUSTS. Always and Forever.”

  16. 3b says:

    Fast: Yes it is a big load, and not much skin in the game with 5 to 10 percent down buyers, and referencing the young however that’s defined today first time buyers who are the foundation of the single family housing market. You and I disagree on the market in the north Jersey/ NY area, we shall see how it all turns out. But, I think we both agree the housing madness is over. I have to say and I have been saying, I think a lot of Bergen Co towns are getting shabby looking, as in the houses and business areas.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “I hear something on TV this morning and it stuck a chord with me. I have been posting on social media about stocks since 2008. I started on Yahoo boards back in the day before migrating to Twitter.

    I have seen thousands upon thousands of perfect traders and investors. You know exactly what I am talking about. I am not one of those people. I don’t think it offers any benefit to anyone to pretend to be perfect at investing.

    Investing is simple if you buy low cost index funds in a tax free account and contribute every payday. Investing in biotech is hard. Its really hard. Most of these companies are very risky and very speculative. Many of them fail.

    This is why you have to speculate wisely. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Personally, I would not put more than 10% of my total into speculative investing. Less would probably be right for older investors.

    The best way to help people learn is by being right there in the trenches with them. I would never have to post my portfolio and no one would probably care. Why? Because no one is crazy enough to do that. That would make them accountable.

    I do. I post my biotech portfolio about once a week unless I forget and I never hesitate to post it when asked. Everyone in biotech right now is hurting. Its been a brutal 2 years. I wish I could say its my first time going through a bear market like this, but its not.

    You get use to it after a while. What bubbles up must pop eventually. It happened in the tech bubble, the housing bubble, the fracking bubble, the cannabis bubble, the shipping bubble, the crypto bubble and now the biotech bubble.

    One thing I can assure you as someone who has gone through all these bubbles popping, except cannabis, that they always come back. That isn’t a guarantee because nothing in life is guaranteed, but its worked for over 100 years of the US market.

    Every time I have seen a bubble pop at this magnitude, it was a buying opportunity for long term investor. You will hear a lot of noise in the market. A lot of euphoria and pumping at tops and a lot of doom and gloom at bottoms.

    My best advice is this will eventually pass. The bargains gained today can really be powerful over the long term. Don’t panic. If your strategy isn’t working, then get a new strategy.”

  18. Chicago says:

    Fast: traveling during holiday on GSP. Suddenly as we crossed into Garfield approaching I-80 I felt it. It was just different there. For lack of a better word, it felt so “prestigious”. Then the traffic began to back up as we approached the route 4 exit. I looked at the people in the cars around me. They all looked so wealthy. It was if they were from a better place. A place I needed to join so I could be like them.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Biotech is where you want to speculate this next cycle. This guy likes beam and dna as his top two, but he is diversified into the four different sectors in biotech. So risk spread out.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BTW, this guy was screaming to sell in nov 2021. He knows his chit too when it comes to researching biotech companies. Very well rounded individual.

  21. Chicago says:

    Really? Ask ex’s wife. They are banking serious coin you douche.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 28, 2022 at 10:41
    I do. I post my biotech portfolio about once a week unless I forget and I never hesitate to post it when asked. Everyone in biotech right now is hurting. Its been a brutal 2 years. I wish I could say its my first time going through a bear market like this, but its not.

  22. Phoenix says:

    She wasn’t kidding when she told him not to leave a sock on the floor.

    New Jersey mom, 51, told cops she and Republican-activist husband, 57, were fighting before she shot him dead and called 911 on Christmas Day, new court records show
    Marylue Wigglesworth has been charged with shooting her husband David
    An affidavit revealed that the couple had been arguing before the killing
    Wigglesworth remains in custody ahead of a court hearing on Wednesday
    Family members say the married couple could ‘fight about anything’

    https://www.citytistics.com/city/mays-landing-new-jersey/

  23. Phoenix says:

    Bet she wishes now he got the popo defunded. I’m sure she is so glad she supported them as they put the cuffs on her. Hahaha. He triggered her Marjorie Taylor Greene Gene.

    Despite running as a Republican in 2019 and supporting local GOP candidates, many of David’s recent posts have supported liberal ideals like defunding the police and in favor of socialism

  24. Libturd says:

    What’s that? The Nasty is now down 35% from it’s record high. I predicted 40 to 60% and the majority here doubted me. And the “blood in the streets” period has not even arrived yet. That should occur during the Spring into the Summer. Keep your powder dry. This is a once in a 20-year opportunity.

    Housing will drop at least 20% from peak and most likely will drop 30% on average across the board. The markets that went crazy will see a 40% drop. The markets that rarely move much (limited demand/not limited supply) will slip 20%.

    t.ly/gFIH

    I really hope everyone has been positioned for it.

  25. leftwing says:

    “459K, forced air (which I hate) and A/C window units”

    489k. Lots about this house to not like, but didn’t have time to shop hard for the best comp.

    Established nice little neighborhood on the outskirts of the city proper.

    No state income tax, and not full of sniveling blue virtue signaling douches.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7116-Highland-Creek-Ln-Knoxville-TN-37931/60149487_zpid/?

  26. 3b says:

    Lib; Bergen co is special, Chgo explained it earlier. And north Jersey in general is special, we ooze money.

  27. Phoenix says:

    I really hope everyone has been positioned for it.

    jackknife.
    https://bit.ly/3G15jJs

  28. leftwing says:

    “Really? Ask ex’s wife. They are banking serious coin you douche.”

    Lol, why do you even read those posts on ‘investing’.

    Taking advice from him on stocks is like going into a Popeye’s and asking the 300lb gangbanger in sweats and gold chains for steakhouse recommendations…like, just why?

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Chicago,

    Lol. Yes, as soon as you approach and pass exit 160 on the Parkway, the scenery goes from black and white to color just like in the The Wizard of Oz. If you’re very still and look closely, you may even see a unicorn among the wooded areas.

  30. leftwing says:

    chi/BRT, wrote some options on TGT to be effectively long at a price fairly well beneath where we are now…went short CPB, threw on some SPY hedges, not sure if I mentioned it here before the holiday wrote a bunch of TRIP beneath where we are…slim pickins, is what it is….

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    The jury is out on whether towns are getting shabby or in transition to something else. In Park Ridge and now in Emerson, they are or were building upscale rentals. In Westwood, it’s becoming a mini Ridgewood according to some article. If they decide to turn everything into Garfield and Clifton/Passaic with non-stop building, then it becomes Queens for sure. We’ll probably be dead and buried before we truly know the direction.

    As for the prices, they won’t decline, they’ll just stagnate and move sideways. Anything north of that unicorn line of exit 160 on the parkway just seems to move and is always pricey and competitive. Hell, I posted links above that show towns like Maywood and Hasbrouck Heights with little offerings and high prices. I’d even say Hackensack is now becoming very desirable. North Jersey is simply very competitive.

  32. Phoenix says:

    And Denville. Not an empty storefront in town.

  33. Phoenix says:

    Yes, as soon as you approach and pass exit 160 on the Parkway,

    The pork roll/taylor ham border.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    Libturd,

    Yeah, they raised that Maywood house by 50k. But it doesn’t really shock me. Someone will capitulate when weeks turn into months of looking. When Muffin Muppet finally realizes that Ridgewood is only a dream for her pocket book, she’ll wipe those tears and sign those papers.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    Phoenix,

    Lol!

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    leftwing,

    That’s a nice house. My God, 489K gets you a house filled with lice in this area. And are the taxes really 1,300 and change? Omg.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I didn’t write this.

    Talk to this guy. He’s been investing in high growth since 1999 bubble. I’m only trying to help, and you guys are mocking it like you did to my faang and real estate calls last decade.

    https://twitter.com/biotech2k1/status/1608098914061750273?s=46&t=gHPwJpvfgKNMHCUG2CIShQ

    Chicago says:
    December 28, 2022 at 10:49 am
    Really? Ask ex’s wife. They are banking serious coin you douche.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 28, 2022 at 10:41
    I do. I post my biotech portfolio about once a week unless I forget and I never hesitate to post it when asked. Everyone in biotech right now is hurting. Its been a brutal 2 years. I wish I could say its my first time going through a bear market like this, but its not.

  38. Libturd says:

    3b,

    My mom grew up in Lynbrook, in Nassau County out on the Island (as the local say). These towns remind me a ton of Bergen County towns. Now it’s going to sound terribly racist, but it is the reality of the situation. All of those towns that border Kings County (basically East of the Cross Island Expressway) have maintained their home, value by being predominantly white. The sad truth is, those home values are as high as they are because most Black and Latino families simply can’t afford to pay those prices and wouldn’t dare want to live there anyways. I think this phenomenon might be in play in Bergen County as well. Not saying that these towns and residents are closet klansmen. But again, the impossibly high (dare I say overvalued) home prices keep the riff raff out and the residents prefer it that way. I could be completely wrong on this, as my grandmother and mother to some extent were both pretty ignorant and frequently talked about how “bad” it was getting in Valley Stream and Rosemont and Queens Village, etc. This may have influenced my opinion.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dude knows his chit. Go read his tweets. Provides free research.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s why I am in DNA and will also build some positions in beam and some others. Not everyone that invests in this sector should be associated with cathie wood. This guy does not support her or push anything ark related. He is strictly bio focused.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And if cathie likes a stock I like….like dna. That’s great then….provides the rocket buying fuel when this thing runs in the next cycle. Also provides support at these levels.

  42. Chicago says:

    Left: why are writing under these conditions? Don’t short a boring market. Vol is shit right now.

  43. Chicago says:

    Lib:
    It is the Cross Island Parkway.
    Valley Stream is in Nassau.
    That area is Queens.
    Check your white privilege.

  44. Fast Eddie says:

    Libturd,

    Oh my Gawd, you’re so racizzz!! ;)

  45. Libturd says:

    Geez Pumps,

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/7fFKH4kGgtgVeyP6A

    This is not investing. This is looking at the electronic display board that shows the results of the roulette wheel, seeing that black has come up 75% of the time, so it must be red’s turn. The reality is, each spin is independent of the prior and that display serves absolutely no purpose accept to separate a fool from his money.

    Those tweets you read? They are the electric display board for DNA. They serve absolutely no purpose accept to separate a fool from his money. Here is what matters.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/7fFKH4kGgtgVeyP6A

  46. Juice Box says:

    Those long island towns are expensive. Heck Queens and the Bronx are expensive too. You can find a POS cape in Valley Stream for even more than Eddie’s listings above. Even Howard Stern’s old town where he claimed to be beaten up every day isn’t that cheap.

    Look here a $50K price cut..quick hurry up and buy now and be priced out forever.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/67-E-Pennywood-Ave-Roosevelt-NY-11575/2060694844_zpid/

  47. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    At the church no less. Gotta love Religion.

    https://bit.ly/3WJ1lfk

  48. Libturd says:

    Chi,

    Not the exact border. It’s a little east of the true border.

  49. Phoenix says:

    Chi,

    Not the exact border. It’s a little east of the true border.

    Lighten up, it’s not like they had GPS back then.

  50. Juice Box says:

    Look at the Marble floors on this Valley Stream flip! Easily adds $247K to the last sale price in June this year of $355K all yours for the low price of $629k….

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/109-Ash-St-Valley-Stream-NY-11580/31240114_zpid/

  51. Phoenix says:

    This is actually very funny. Does this guy actually have any clue what he is?

    Santos, who flipped a Long Island House seat for the GOP and is the first openly gay Republican congressman-elect, admitted recently to fabricating parts of his resume and background.

    On his campaign website, Santos stated that his mother was Jewish, and that his Jewish maternal grandparents escaped the Holocaust by moving to Brazil. But genealogy records show that his maternal grandparents were Brazilian-born Catholics.

    That bio has now been deleted.

    Santos says that he’s ‘clearly Catholic,’ reframing his story as one his grandmother told about being Jewish before later converting to Catholicism.

    ‘I never claimed to be Jewish,’ Santos told the New York Post. ‘I am Catholic. Because I learned my maternal family had a Jewish background I said I was ‘Jew-ish’.’

    The Republican Jewish Coalition has hosted Santos at events before, as a conference speaker and at a Hanukkah celebration this month.

    Rather than working on Wall Street in his pre-political career, he actually worked at a call center making $15 an hour, on a quiet industrial avenue in Queens, New York.

    He has also acknowledged never graduating from any college, despite earlier claiming to have a degree from Baruch in 2010.

    ‘I didn’t graduate from any institution of higher learning. I’m embarrassed and sorry for having embellished my resume. I own up to that … We do stupid things in life,’ he said.

  52. Libturd says:

    Phoenix,

    The only difference today is they are sans white robes.

  53. leftwing says:

    “Left: why are writing under these conditions? Don’t short a boring market. Vol is shit right now.”

    LOL, agree, but wtf else am I going to do? I’ve got a boatload of cash hanging around…

    TRIP was around a 20 IV percentile, clearly sub-optimal, but the strike is also 30%+ OTM…biggest frustration is I can’t write enough to really make a dent in the portfolio but other hand it does beat the hell out of just tossing cash in 4% CDs….

    CPB I wanted more negative delta, this seemed a ‘best case’ scenario, which is if we don’t recession then other stocks will lead us up and out and flows will move out of these defensive stocks like CPB; if we do recession they’ll get hit in any case…20x forward P/E at recent highs for a 150 year old consumer products company that should be growing at GDP?…..

  54. 3b says:

    Fast: The Unicorns nestle along the service road between GSP and Paramus Pk Mall, in the From Rd Conservation area. It’s there that you can gaze on the Unicorns frolicking. During mating season their performance is like an elegant and joyful ballet.

  55. crushednjmillenial says:

    Queens racism or racial tensions documentary from 1976. Not sure if I saw this here or somewhere else on the internet:

    Rosedale: The Way It Is

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRfAdi0s73I

  56. leftwing says:

    Phoenix, re: Santos…so we have someone who views himself differently in many respects – religion, education, employment – than we do…

    Logical conclusion of the identification culture…if a person born with an XY chromosomal pairing can identify as a woman, why can’t Santos identify how he feels?

    He identifies being Jewish, being a college grad, and being a former financial services employee…

    Who are you to question otherwise….very education-ist of you, I must say….

  57. trick says:

    Kids got a nasty stomach bug, 5am Christmas night son was blowing chunks for 3hrs in our hotel room. Yesterday the other son got it, luckily it was during the day at home. Both are feel better but not 100%. Hoping it doesn’t hit me or the wife.

  58. 3b says:

    Juice: My old neighborhood in the Bronx, is one of the poorest zip codes in the 5 boroughs and houses there primarily 2 and 3 families were selling in the 600k to 800k range during the bubble period. Insane, but they were. Not sustainable of course, and what happens in a recession?

  59. BRT says:

    I’m still short SPY, covering apple/nvdia. Still holding shorts on Silvergate, OXY, and LNG. Wish I didn’t get stopped out of that Tesla short a few weeks back.

  60. Libturd says:

    “covering apple/nvdia”

    Smart. Though both were clearly overvalued and probably still are, both companies have a knack for innovation that sells. The Apple Cult remains strong. I was in a store a few months ago and it felt like rush hour at Penn Station in 2019. NVIDIA makes some solid computer parts and smartly, the interchangeable ones.

  61. 3b says:

    Fast: I do a lot of running/ walking , so see things up close a little more. Lots of cracked sidewalks, green crap from the trees on vinyl siding and fences, garbage cans and newspapers left out for days. Lots of the new construction over the last few years don’t look to be holding up well. My friend a retired engineer does a lot of odd jobs, tells me the Mc Mansions built in the early 2000s and before are starting to fall apart. Just my observation, but things just are looking a little shabby in my neck of the woods . As for desirable, who knows, apartments are transient, so people will come and go. As for Hackensack becoming desirable, again who knows, it’s being marketed as Hoboken north, with its meet me in the Sack tag line. The one on Kinderkamack Rd opened in the summer, with views of the train track, Rt 4 and Kinderkamack Rd looks pretty empty judging by night time. The one in Park Ridge which you don’t like, but I think they did a good job, good job may be more desirable than Hackensack, as Hackensack has at least 15 new apartment projects to choose from. The one in Emerson looks like it’s taken forever, 150 units, that’s a lot of cars dumped on KKR. The one in Oradell is almost done, and the other project in Oradell was just turned down again by the town. Plus the massive new one starting construction at GS mall in Paramus next year. All rental apartments, and as I note transient. Bergen Co ain’t the quiet bucolic suburb any more.

  62. 3b says:

    I knew Santos did not work for GS with a degree from Baruch, unless it was an operations spot; not that Santos would know what that was.

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know what I own. It’s a risk I will take every single time. DNA is going to make it in the long-run. Bayer doesn’t make deals with bs companies. Bill gates doesn’t back bs.

    This has a very good chance of blowing up long-term.

    Libturd says:
    December 28, 2022 at 12:53 pm
    Geez Pumps,

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/7fFKH4kGgtgVeyP6A

    This is not investing. This is looking at the electronic display board that shows the results of the roulette wheel, seeing that black has come up 75% of the time, so it must be red’s turn. The reality is, each spin is independent of the prior and that display serves absolutely no purpose accept to separate a fool from his money.

    Those tweets you read? They are the electric display board for DNA. They serve absolutely no purpose accept to separate a fool from his money. Here is what matters.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/7fFKH4kGgtgVeyP6A

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Aka why do you think it’s going up in price? It’s NYC spillover into NJ. As much as you want to hate it, nyc spillover says this land will only go up in value. Simple as that.

    “Bergen Co ain’t the quiet bucolic suburb any more.”

  65. Juice Box says:

    So a politician lied to get into office. Nothing they can do, except perhaps a better turnout in 2024. I for one applaud this guy, last thing I heard he was a $15 dollar an hour call center employee. It reminds me of that other more famous congresswoman that also represents Queens NY who was a bartender before she won a seat in Congress. Neither had any track record and both told fibs about their backgrounds, heck sleepy Joe said he had three degrees, this guy said he only had one! I liked the fact he even changed his last name to a Hispanic sounding name…from Devolder to Santos, it definitely helped him on Election Day, a gay hispanic gotta pull the lever for him over Zimmerman, as that name sounds like an old straight white male…

  66. 3b says:

    Juice: It’s ok, land is so valuable here, Bergen co is going to become jam packed with apartments, just like Queens. This is Fast ‘ s dream, the next Queens.

  67. leftwing says:

    BRT, yeah, AAPL and TSLA rolling….could very well be the snowball for Lib’s avalanche…wish I didn’t close my AAPL short earlier, I’d be very near max profit now…I see lines there around 120, 108, and a massive gap fill sub-100…she heads there we’ve got our clearance sale….

  68. chicagofinance says:

    You have $10M face of UST maturing in 2 days trading 659 YTM.

    leftwing says:
    December 28, 2022 at 1:26 pm
    LOL, agree, but wtf else am I going to do? I’ve got a boatload of cash hanging around…

  69. BRT says:

    So a politician lied to get into office.

    As a politician, it’s not ok to lie about your credentials, just everything else

  70. Ex says:

    “So a politician lied to get into office. Nothing they can do, except perhaps a better turnout in 2024. I for one applaud this guy, last thing I heard he was a $15 dollar an hour call center employee.”

    ———————————————————–

    Somewhat of an anarchist’s point of view.

  71. BRT says:

    Apple and Nvdia are great companies, two that I rode to the top at the tail end of this run. But yes, price does not match the company, making them ideal shorts. Gotta ride the waves though. My gains would have been much better earlier in the year if I was more experienced in the technical setups for entry/exit. There’s a lot of negative outcomes moving forward that can be a negative for ishare price. Apple has china issues. Nvidia is likely going to be competing with a secondary market for their stuff once everyone stops mining crypto.

  72. Nomad says:

    Eddie Elfenbein had this on his twitter this am:

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/27/holiday-related-debt-soars-to-an-eight-year-high-of-1550/

    BRT, journal had article this am about chip glut. Nvidia customers i think have ample inventory of older chip and are not able to buy their latest and freatest stuff. Article mention Micron reducing headcount 10%.

  73. No One says:

    For Chi
    https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/12/calomiris-on-gramm-ekelund-and-early-on.html?spref=tw&m=1

    Interesting observation is that due to an expensive welfare state, until you reach the top levels of income, there’s hardly any income payoff for working.

  74. Phoenix says:

    Interesting observation is that due to an expensive welfare state, until you reach the top levels of income, there’s hardly any income payoff for working.

    Hey I’ve got some co-workers with pretty good income. They also have found out that if they play it right they don’t have to work either. Just let someone else do it.

  75. chicagofinance says:

    Who needs pancake batter in a can?
    https://www.yummycanbacon.com/
    I am betting the entire house on this!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  76. Phoenix says:

    No, lighting him on fire would be more of an anarchist’s point of view, or an arsonists.

    “So a politician lied to get into office. Nothing they can do, except perhaps a better turnout in 2024. I for one applaud this guy, last thing I heard he was a $15 dollar an hour call center employee.”

    ———————————————————–

    Somewhat of an anarchist’s point of view.

  77. Phoenix says:

    Only if you put a lanyard on the can. I am betting someone, somewhere will be inserting this re ct ally while falling in the shower. Happens way more than you think.

    Who needs pancake batter in a can?
    https://www.yummycanbacon.com/
    I am betting the entire house on this!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  78. chicagofinance says:

    thx!!

    No One says:
    December 28, 2022 at 4:34 pm
    For Chi
    https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/12/calomiris-on-gramm-ekelund-and-early-on.html?spref=tw&m=1

    Interesting observation is that due to an expensive welfare state, until you reach the top levels of income, there’s hardly any income payoff for working.

  79. Phoenix says:

    “1) Income. The central jaw-dropping, astonishing fact: The statistics you read about income and income inequality ignore taxes and transfers. By doing so, of course, they create a problem that is immune to its purported solution!

    Especially on the low end, transfers including in-kind transfers (housing, medical payments, etc.) are a huge part of consumption and properly measured income. ”

    Exactly what is he saying?

  80. Juice Box says:

    re: Happens way more than you think.

    I may have repeated this more than once but back in the day “the 90s” before smart phone cameras and social media some doctor friends of mine in Manhattan were living together and working at various NYC hospitals, they had some great parties at their Village apt with the occasional roof top rock n roll band, great guys were from all backgrounds too. Whenever I was over without fail there would always be a new x-ray taped to the fridge..All kinds of stuff you should not be putting anywhere near orifices.

    One of those Docs to this day is still doing emergency care in Honolulu…Great guy, I kept him from dying one weekend as I spent the day teaching the fine art of not dying while skiing…

  81. Phoenix says:

    If $20,000 worth of Medicaid is only worth $5,000 to the recipient, there is a problem with Medicaid!

    If you think that ratio is bad for Medicaid, what do you think it is for Medicare?

    If kids had to pay what it costs Grandma to live another three months with her advanced cancer instead of the Govt I’d love to allow you to fill in the blanks as to what would happen.

  82. Phoenix says:

    Juice,
    I consider it job security. Put some sugar in your gas tank and I’m sure your local mechanic will have no problem billing you for pulling your tank and cleaning it.

    The only difference is who pays, usually all of us in the form of higher insurance premiums-or the taxpayer should it be a teacher who enjoys to do this. Plus you can bill 20k and you ain’t gonna get it, only the 5k anyway.

    Next time pick a different hobby, like woodworking or something. But stick with 2×4’s instead of dowels.

  83. Phoenix says:

    Not going to talk about this subject, but there are plenty of kinky things women do for entertainment as well. Other than spending a guys money that is.

  84. Juice Box says:

    re: pancake in a can…..Food gasification. Heck under the right amount of pressure anything can come out as “gas”…..Some of it can even be used to power engines… glycerol/fat co-gasification can run a whole lotta things, biodiesel can be made of nearly anything organic..

    We do know in the future the dino/fossil fuel will run out in what in 200 years?…Sure we could walk or go abck to riding animals but how about a nifty biomass plant…it makes great fuel just need to hunt down the feed stock..

    Sounds like a nice dystopian movie..

  85. chicagofinance says:

    Value of government transfers that are services or discrete items. It is not income, but the recipient receives a benefit.

    Perfect example….. you can work off your bill here….
    https://jbjsoulkitchen.org/

    Phoenix says:
    December 28, 2022 at 6:05 pm
    “1) Income. The central jaw-dropping, astonishing fact: The statistics you read about income and income inequality ignore taxes and transfers. By doing so, of course, they create a problem that is immune to its purported solution!

    Especially on the low end, transfers including in-kind transfers (housing, medical payments, etc.) are a huge part of consumption and properly measured income. ”

    Exactly what is he saying?

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ac­cord­ing to Mark Twain, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trou­ble. It’s what you know that ain’t so.” “The Myth of Amer­i­can In­equal­ity,” by Phil Gramm, Robert Ekelund and John Early, quotes that wis­dom, then of­fers 250 pages of analy­sis prov­ing it.

    Be­fore read­ing the book, you should ask a few ques­tions to test the au­thors’ hy­poth­e­sis that mis­lead­ing gov­ern­ment sta­tistics have led many Amer­i­cans to mis­per­ceive the preva­lence of poverty, the de­gree of in­equal­ity, and the changes in these mea­sures in re­cent decades. Has the av­er­age stan­dard of liv­ing grown sub­stan­tially since the 1960s? Has in­equal­ity shrunk over that pe­riod? Did post-1960 re­dis­trib­u­tive poli­cies re­duce the per­cent­age of fam­i­lies liv­ing in poverty?

    Me­dia com­men­ta­tors and politi­cians seem to be­lieve that lit­tle progress has been made in rais­ing av­er­age Amer­i­can liv­ing stan­dards since the 1960s; that poverty has not been sub­stan­tially re­duced over the pe­riod; that the me­dian house­hold’s stan­dard of liv­ing has not in­creased in re­cent years and in­equal­ity is cur­rently high and ris­ing (“a truth uni­ver­sally ac­knowl­edged,” ac­cord­ing to the Econ­omist mag­a­zine in 2020).

    The au­thors—a for­mer chair­man of the Sen­ate bank­ing com­mit­tee, a pro­fes­sor of eco­nomics at Auburn Uni­ver­sity and a for­mer econ­omist at the Bu­reau for La­bor Sta­tistics—show that these be­liefs are false. Av­er­age liv­ing stan­dards have im­proved dra­mat­i­cally. Real in­come of the bot­tom quin­tile, the au­thors write, grew more than 681% from 1967 to 2017. The per­cent­age of peo­ple liv­ing in poverty fell from 32% in 1947 to 15% in 1967 to only 1.1% in 2017. Op­por­tu­ni­ties cre­ated by eco­nomic growth, and gov­ern­ment-spon­sored so­cial pro­grams funded by that growth, pro­duced broadly shared pros­per­ity: 94% of house­holds in 2017 would have been at least as well off as the top quin­tile in 1967. Bot­tom-quin­tile house­holds en­joy the same liv­ing stan­dards as mid­dle-quin­tile house­holds, and on a per capita ba­sis the bot­tom quin­tile has a 3% higher in­come. Top-quin­tile house­holds re­ceive in­come equal to roughly four times the bot­tom (and only 2.2 times the low­est on a per capita ba­sis), not the 16.7 pro­por­tion pop­u­larly re­ported.

    What ex­plains the dis­con­nect be­tween re­al­ity and be­lief? Gov­ern­ment sta­tis­ti­cal re­ports ex­clude “non­cash” sources of in­come, which ex­cludes most trans­fers from so­cial pro­grams. Taxes (paid dis­pro­por­tion­ately by high earn­ers) are also ig­nored in of­fi­cial cal­cu­la­tions. Fur­ther­more, even the gov­ern­ment’s “cash” in­come num­bers are re­ported in a way that un­der­states im­prove­ments in real (in­fla­tion-ad­justed) in­come over time be­cause gov­ern­ment in­fla­tion mea­sures fail to use the ap­pro­pri­ate chained price in­dexes or take ac­count of new prod­ucts and ser­vices.

    In­creased earned-in­come in­equal­ity is the nat­ural con­se­quence of re­dis­trib­u­tive poli­cies: if one can en­joy me­dian house­hold con­sump­tion with­out earn­ing any in­come, the in­cen­tive to work is sub­stan­tially di­min­ished. This largely ex­plains the grow­ing dis­tance be­tween earned and to­tal in­come for poor house­holds (trans­fers to those house­holds have gone up dra­mat­i­cally). Iron­i­cally, it is the very suc­cess of re­dis­tri­b­u­tion in re­duc­ing poverty and in­equal­ity that has led mis­mea­sure-ment to cre­ate the false per­cep­tion of in­creas­ing in­equal­ity.

    The equal­ity of con­sump­tion be­tween the bot­tom quin­tile (in which only 36% of prime-age per­sons work) and the mid­dle quin­tile (in which 92% of prime-age per­sons work) is a strik­ing find­ing. As the au­thors note: “It is hard to see how a mid­dle-in­come fam­ily with two adults both work­ing would not re­sent the fact that other prime work-age peo­ple who are not work­ing at all are just about as well off as they are.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myth-of-american-inequality-review-believe-your-eyes-not-the-statistics-11672095284

  87. BRT says:

    Funny thing about Bacon is most people buy that crappy bacon in the food store that’s been inject with water to increase weight. It takes forever to cook out. There’s a real old school polish butcher in New Providence, Barth’s. They smoke their own pork belly and the moisture level is much lower. Cooks right up quick. It’s better to buy the quality product at the higher price as it’s essentially a wash after the water injection scam.

  88. crushednjmillenial says:

    Powell’s dream . . .

    Ahead of Feb. 1, reports of disinflation continue to roll in. Tech cuts into inflation. At this point, painted illustration, for example, is currently basically free for all due to AI. Some of the downward pressure on remote worker wages starts filtering through to the folks working for NYC firms while living in Arkansas. The open border sees ample new workers showing up for the low-end physical labor jobs avaialble for peopel without papers (restaurant kticens, landscaping, construction crews, nail salons, hotel maids, moving companies, and outsourced janitorial staff).

    China re-opens, puts down its rattling sabers and pokes its factory workers back to work. Even though China is re-opening, US and other multinationals don’t trust the CCP anymore and new plants are opening in other parts of Asia that were not on the planning radar 5 years ago, lower wages in Vietnam than China, keeping a lid on global labor-push inflation.

    On energy, the US frackers invest in cap ex, in spite of bad signals from the Biden Admin. China re-opening is priced in to energy markets already, so no spike in O+E prices. Russian supply will now permanently flow to Asia rather than Europe, but it does flow. Europe shifts to LNG by tanker and more renewables. A miraculous mild winter saves Powell’s as while Europe continues shifting away from dependance on Russian fuel.

    On food, the third world heaves and thrashes as staples rise, but staples are such a small proportion of US consumer spending, that real inflation isn’t moved much by it.

    Then, J. Powell raises .25 on Feb. 1, and starts eyeing a FFR where he can pause and hope that he doesn’t destroy the global economy by monetizing the US federal debt and destroying the dollar. Can the US federal government pay $1T in a single year of interest payments on its debt? How many years in a row is that possible?

  89. crushednjmillenial says:

    Current US debt is $31T.

    Current 10Y UST is .03866.

    If the whole US debt was re-capitalized at the current 10Y rate, the annual interest payment is $1.2T. That’s interest-only cost of $3,600 per person in the US, due each year.

  90. Juice Box says:

    re: “Powell raises .25 on Feb. 1, and starts eyeing a FFR where he can pause”

    Why does Powell need to be saved? It’s $600,000 for a house in the hood….Who needs to be saved? Does anyone really think a republican lawyer/banker reads the papers the fed wonks put out? He is all about damage control. Brainard is supposed to take over..I won’t be surprised if he is kicked out soon so we get back to lower rates…..

    Yes this is a 2023 prediction….

  91. Juice Box says:

    crushed – rewind a few pages..I posted a screed….

    Debt at current rates rolls over 7 trillion next year and so on etc. We will get to a trillion or more in debt service in 3 years perhaps at a minimum depends is the tax base collapsing? Who works at treasury anyway? Game galore…

    Lib says he is going to Costa Rica but has not posted a redacted deed yet…We shall see if Rainman is right….

  92. 3b says:

    Juice: We go back to lower rates it all collapses!

  93. leftwing says:

    “You have $10M face of UST maturing in 2 days trading 659 YTM.”

    LOL. What do I do the other 363 days?

    Hit JBJ Soul last year when I went to Red Bank to see TTB. Neat place.

    On that house I posted in TN earlier, I forgot to note the $1300 annual RE tax which Gary picked up, but also neglected to mention I’m told that TN has no tax on investment income….

    Joisey sure is fucking paradise though….

    I want someone like Murphy running the country for sure, not some nasty Red State businessman…./s

  94. leftwing says:

    “The equal­ity of con­sump­tion be­tween the bot­tom quin­tile (in which only 36% of prime-age per­sons work) and the mid­dle quin­tile (in which 92% of prime-age per­sons work) is a strik­ing find­ing. As the au­thors note: “It is hard to see how a mid­dle-in­come fam­ily with two adults both work­ing would not re­sent the fact that other prime work-age peo­ple who are not work­ing at all are just about as well off as they are.”

    Best explanation of the election of DJT I’ve seen recently….

    BRT, Barths are German….but the Polish sausage shop in Union has some outstanding homemade bacon too!

  95. Libturd says:

    “Lib says he is going to Costa Rica but has not posted a redacted deed yet…We shall see if Rainman is right….”

    Can I get my first kid off to college please.

  96. Phoenix says:

    We do know in the future the dino/fossil fuel will run out in what in 200 years?

    Who would have thought that current cemeteries will become future oil wells as fat finger Mary and her ex-husband Big Belly Bob slowly transform into hydrocarbons.

  97. Phoenix says:

    Can I get my first kid off to college please.

    Long as you stay on the forum. Some of us love you Lib.

  98. Very Stable Genius says:

    BREAKING NEWS

    Federal and local prosecutors began inquiries into Representative-elect George Santos over questions about his finances and lies about his work.
    Wednesday, December 28, 2022 11:19 PM ET

    Both investigations followed reporting in The New York Times that uncovered that Mr. Santos had made false claims about his educational and professional background, including whether he worked at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

    The Times also found that Mr. Santos had omitted key details about his business on required financial disclosures.

  99. Fast Eddie says:

    The January 6 special committee on Wednesday decided to withdraw its subpoena of former President Trump as it concludes its work.

    Trump’s testimony was no longer needed, according to the panel’s chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss.

    Thompson noted in a letter to Trump’s attorneys: “In light of the imminent end of our investigation, the Select Committee can no longer pursue the specific information covered by the subpoena.”

    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!! Circus clowns.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This article really nails it for me. The older I get, the more I realize how the market is driven. HUMAN NATURE. Euphoria, fear, greed, fomo, FUD, etc. This is what drives the markets, not fundamentals. If it was run on fundamentals, you would never overshoot on the way up and never overshoot on the way down. You would never have bubbles. So I find it comical that they preach fundamentals when they should be focused on human nature instead…what will the herd do next?

    In this case, the herd went from euphoria combined with greed to fear combined with greed. They all ran into defensive stocks now driving that into a bubble. Only way you win, being one step ahead of the herd on every move. Get caught in the herd when they start to stampede for an exit and you could get killed.

    This is all the stock market is: human nature combined with demographic tail or headwinds.

    “Defensive Stocks Become Hideout for Investors in a Rocky Market

    Utilities, healthcare outperform S&P 500 this year by widest margin in decades, while consumer staples also beat broader market”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/defensive-stocks-become-hideout-for-investors-in-a-rocky-market-11672277166

  101. BananaJoe says:

    We have menendez for Senator. He was caught, censured, re-elected and then did it again apparently.

    Joe Biden invited a sick pervert to the White House this month who previously tweeted “the kids are out to sick D”. The new left has made s3xualizing children an open part of the agenda.

    Hardly have time to be concerned about what lost said to get in office. That list is too long.

  102. BananaJoe says:

    Menendez was caught taking bribes. Blumenthal lied about serving in the military, stolen valor, which is viewed by many to be a deal breaker. He’s still around.

  103. Fast Eddie says:

    “By that time, Biden’s campaign was already weathering several scandals. It had already been revealed that Biden plagiarized the speech of British Labor Party leader in remarks that he delivered during a debate at the Iowa State Fair in August 1987. At the same time, Biden was accused of plagiarizing the remarks of Hubert Humphrey, Robert F. Kennedy and John F. Kennedy.

    On top of all this, Biden acknowledged that he had plagiarized a paper in the first year of law school. The Washington Post ran the headline, “Biden Admits Plagiarizing in Law School,” and six days later he announced that he was dropping out of the race.”

    “I was the outstanding student in the political science department at the end of my year. I graduated with three degrees from undergraduate school and 165 credits, you only needed 125 credits. And I’d be delighted to sit down and compare my IQ to yours, if you’d like, Frank.”

    Several months later Biden released his academic records revealing that many of the credentials that he cited in the rant in Claremont were not true.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know what’s funny about the buffet praise and cathie hate….buffet started off the same way, buying small chit companies no one wanted. Let that sink in. That’s how you get to the position he is in to focus on diversification and money preservation…taking risks on small companies in the bear market.

  105. Phoenix says:

    Sounds like fun.

    Linda Fruits, 33, from Sunrise, Florida, said she decided to split from her husband, Christopher Haerting, 36, in August 2021. She left Christopher after welcoming two children together and nearly a decade of marriage when she realized that she was attracted to women. But despite her and Christopher ending their romance, they decided to continue to live in the same house so that they could raise their children together. The mother-of-two soon fell in love with a woman named Maddy Gross, 36, and six months into their relationship, she moved into the family home. But Linda and Maddy longed to have their own children together, so they asked Christopher if he’d consider being their sperm donor. Christopher not only agreed to donate his sperm to the couple, but he has also asked to be a co-parent – and they now plan on raising their kids as one unit.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cathie type stocks will lead the next bull market cycle, and then SOME will grow and hit to become the market leaders of this late cycle in the next bull market.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Christopher likes to get walked over.

  108. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – re: “Sounds like fun”

    It sure can be…A old Hoboken friend of mine is now is a similar situation.

    Wife split after a decade + and two kids and moved out declared her self batting for the other team etc. Kids stayed with him since district and home was way better, but since Covid they are back together and live in a quasi throuple. Wife however is not great at keeping the new girlfriends and ends up getting a new one every few months, her GFs are usually much younger and hotter….He has real life genuine shit-eating grin every time I see him….

  109. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – There is no comparison between Cathie’s ETFs of mostly unicorn stock picks and Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio of mostly blue chip holdings. Few of the companies Berkshire invests in are negative earnings and thin revenues. The only one I see on their latest 13-F is symbol SNOW.

    Berkshire biggest holding by far is Apple 42%

    2nd biggest holding is cash… and they have now purchased new positions this year in Taiwan Semiconductor, Jefferies Financial Group and Louisiana Pacific etc companies with huge revenues..

    I am going to ask you again please stop with the drivel about how great a stock picker Cathie is..

  110. Phoenix says:

    It sure can be…A old Hoboken friend of mine is now is a similar situation.

    Haha.

    A JJ like story.

    On a lawyer’s billboard: Don’t let a spouse stand in your way of finding your soulmate-we can help.

  111. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Sounds like a pain in the ass . Who wants that complication in their life? Give it a little time, and the love , peace together, we all love each other crap will be out the window.

  112. Phoenix says:

    Give it a little time, and the love , peace together, we all love each other crap will be out the window.

    I agree.

    Give it a little time, you will find that your congressman, a 34-year-old Republican falsely claimed he graduated from Baruch College, that he is the descendant of a Holocaust survivor, and that had worked for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

    It’s amazing the amount of secrets a person can hold.

  113. Phoenix says:

    Brandonlini’s Law, also known as the “bull sh t asymmetry principle,” holds that “the amount of energy needed to refute bull sh t is an order of magnitude bigger than [what’s needed] to produce it.” This truism highlights that while the battle against misinformation more generally must be fought “face to face,” the larger war against belief in misinformation won’t be won without prevention. Once people are set in their ways, beliefs are notoriously hard to change. Building immunity against false beliefs in the first place is the more effective long-term strategy.

  114. 3b says:

    Phoenix: I don’t see what one has to do with the other, but whatever.

  115. Chicago says:

    What did I say?

    Chicago says:
    December 28, 2022 at 12:44 pm
    Left: why are writing under these conditions? Don’t short a boring market. Vol is shit right now.

  116. Phoenix says:

    3b
    Just that no matter who you are with you may never really know what they are thinking.

  117. 3b says:

    Phoenix: I have seen enough shocking shite from some people this past year that I never would have expected, cold , shameless, disgusting feckers.

  118. Juice Box says:

    It’s like a time machine..

    “More than half of passengers on a flight from China to Italy have tested positive for COVID-19 – as China prepares to open up its borders despite a huge surge in infections.

    Two flights into Milan were among the first to see passengers subjected to new mandatory testing imposed on Chinese travellers.

    Guido Bertolaso, Lombardy regional councillor for welfare, told a news conference: “On the first flight, out of 92 passengers 35 (38%) are positive. On the second, out of 120 passengers 62 (52%) are positive.”

    On Wednesday evening the US became the fifth country to impose restrictions on Chinese travellers – as China prepares to issue ordinary passports and visas in a huge step away from COVID measures that have isolated the country for nearly three years.”

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-patients-no-longer-have-to-quarantine-in-hong-kong-as-restrictions-are-lifted-12775498

  119. Fast Eddie says:

    LESS THAN 5 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE STARBUCKS IN TOWN…

    Lol! Because nothing says ‘buy me’ like proximity to Starsucks.

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/saddle-brook/39-cambridge-ave-saddle-brook-nj-07663–2006732448

  120. Fast Eddie says:

    Paterson, 595k, just raised the price by 16k. You thought you’d get a bargain because it’s Paterson?

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paterson/377-381-trenton-ave-paterson-nj-07503–2349840092

  121. Fast Eddie says:

    450k, Clifton/Paterson border and it needs a ton of work. I can detect the scent of ethnic cuisine embedded in the walls from here:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/clifton/102-e-8th-st-clifton-nj-07011–2088510841

  122. Fabius Maximus says:

    Deal of the day for those looking an EV charger. $150off and you can then add the $250 rebate from the state.

    https://www.bestbuy.com/site/juicebox-25-ft-electric-vehicle-charger-with-40-amp-nema-14-50-white/6486277.p?skuId=6486277

  123. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nice to see left and co trying to put some daylight between them and Santos. He realey is the posterchild for the new GOP. Hypocritical filled with lies and funded by Russia.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1607801444673155072
    Mueller, She Wrote @MuellerSheWrote
    THREAD: for those asking where liar George Santos got the money to run a campaign, a sizable portion of it came from a man named Intrater.

  124. BRT says:

    Lol! Because nothing says ‘buy me’ like proximity to Starsucks.

    Sadly, Millenials/Gen Z literally would make their decisions off this. A better option in life is buying premium coffee and learning how to brew yourself.

  125. 3b says:

    Fab: And the Dems are the party of righteousness and virtue? Biden lied years ago about his academic achievements and plagiarized speeches, he was forced to drop out of his Presidential run, and yet here is President today. This clown Santos will be voted out next time around. In the end who cares.

  126. SmallGovConservative says:

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 29, 2022 at 1:06 pm
    “Hypocritical filled with lies…”

    Slow Joe lied about his academic achievements; Futterman lied about the seriousness of his medical condition; Liz Warren lied about her ethnicity…I’d go on, but it’s a useless exercise when stooges like you just excuse Dem lies as exaggerations or accidental misstatements.

  127. Juice Box says:

    Fab – Cumon now tell the whole story..

    Is he allowed to make political donations or not? The sanctions of his Russian cousin actually began under Trump…your tweet link makes no mention of that.. Andrew Intrater is an American, he met with Mueller and team and was interviewed and called for a Grand Jury testimony down in DC. His name does not even show up in the Mueller report. Read the glowing story of him in the NY Times…and his 4th amendment fight against the DOJ and Treasury…

    Goota do better. Remember it was most likely Democrat voters that put him in office, the low information voters in Queens and Long Island that saw “Santos” on a lawn sign and checked the box for him because he was not a straight white man like Zimmerman…

  128. Phoenix says:

    Price of lead has gone up dramatically, you need to pay more for the lead and the entertainment that goes with it.

    Paterson, 595k, just raised the price by 16k. You thought you’d get a bargain because it’s Paterson?

  129. Hold my beer says:

    Juice

    And we aren’t going to test passengers from China until Jan 5th. Makes no sense to delay that long when we have the tests.

  130. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    Back in the late 90s buying near a Starbucks was actually a thing. Starbucks was doing lots of demographic research. But I think there are now a lot more Starbucks then 20 years ago so not as strong selling point. There even in Target and 3 grocery stores in my town plus a few free standing ones.

  131. Juice Box says:

    Beer- we aren’t testing anybody after the arrive at our airports… Case in point Italy… they tested after they arrived to keep people honest. The rules are a negative test before boarding…Our test requirements are useless anyway…They are allowing home test results this time….I self certify I don’t have covid..no real supervision. All those people that landed in Milan lied….

    Last year to travel to the US before testing requirements were dropped for it was a PCR test from a lab or self tests approved by our FDA and the test must also include supervision by a telehealth service, where a provider confirms your identity, watches you administer the test and verifies the result. Not this time.

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p1228-COVID-china.html

  132. Juice Box says:

    I have a fake starbucks cup I can put in the dishwasher….Way better coffee choices when you brew yourself…unless you are treating it like a 600 calorie meal Frappuccino blech!!..

  133. Fabius Maximus says:

    What about Hillary’s Wesley transcripts why where they never released? That’s all I get from a lot of you in here. Can face the facts in front of you, always have to deflect.

    “will be voted out next time around”, he should not be seated in the first place. If McCarthy had any stones, he wouldn’t be. At least the Dems clean house. The GOP just let them sit there and stink up the place.

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/28/national-security-experts-say-rep-elect-george-santos-is-potential-espionage-threat/

    There should be no dark money in politics. Period.

  134. Juice Box says:

    Fab – re: “should not be seated?”

    For lying during a campaign? or having PACs buy him lawn signs?

    I agree no dark money…Now get the Democrats to pass that bill today before the house flips next week.

  135. SmallGovConservative says:

    Juice Box says:
    December 29, 2022 at 2:37 pm
    “Our test requirements are useless anyway…They are allowing home test results this time….I self certify I don’t have covid..no real supervision. All those people that landed in Milan lied ”

    Wish I knew how to strikethrough, but in any case, this statement of fact could easily be rewritten to highlight another problem…

    Our VOTING requirements are useless anyway…They are allowing home VOTING this time….I self certify I FILLED IN AND MAILED MY BALLOT..no real supervision.”

  136. 3b says:

    Fab: And Biden should never have continued on in office for years and ultimately being President.

  137. BananaJoe says:

    Lets not forget Omar who committed blatant immigration fraud by marrying her brother. She broke federal law. She is still in office.

    What about waters, Pelosi, etc. lining their pockets. They are all criminals.

    And this is third world. That’s where the left has taken us. We are there. Live with it.

  138. Very Stable Genius says:

    Rep.-elect George Santos also lied about attending a prestigious prep school a damning new report claims.
    CNN reported late Wednesday that the New York Republican never attended Horace Mann School, an elite private school in the Bronx.
    Santos is the subject of a federal and several local probes after claiming he got rich selling yachts and jets.

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We are not like the rest of the country here in NYC metro. Not enough supply of endless land like these other locations where they overbuild every cycle. I told people not move to these places, but lemmings will be lemmings.

    “So home prices are falling despite “tight” inventory because new home inventory is not tight at all.

    In fact, if we factor the cancellation data, new home months supply is likely well over 9.0 which is the highest level since the 2008 crisis.”

    “The declines are NOT equal across the country

    Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta & parts of the east coast like New York & Miami have seen home prices decline less than 2%

    Many people in these markets are saying home prices are not declining!

    They aren’t wrong. Declines are mild”

    “San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego, & LA, however, have price declines in the 7%-10% range on average

    Keep in mind this data is delayed and these price declines occurred in the span of 5-6 months.”

    “This means in parts of the country, home prices are falling at a rate greater than 20% per year.

    That speed rivals the 2008 crisis if this pace keeps up…

    Based on the leading indicators of US home prices, there’s no reason to believe the pace of declines will subside…”

  140. Juice Box says:

    Fab – dark money in politics…. Forgot to mention when the DNC got wind Zimmerman was losing they came in and spent $3 million to prop him up and he still lost. RNC spent nothing on Santos.

    This is a case of stupid voters most likely Democrats who checked the Santos box over his name only and no other reason it seems Santos and Zimmerman are both openly gay….

    It’s a great story, and should be made into a movie.

    https://theintercept.com/2022/12/24/george-santos-election-republicans/

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice,

    Missed my point. Did not buffet take big risks and invest in companies people hated to get to the level of protectionism of wealth when it comes to investing? He started off no different than cathie wood type investor.

    Here’s a tip. If you invest like “late career” buffet your entire life, you better be born rich. Otherwise, capitalism rewards the risk takers big time. Do you have the Irish balls to risk it?

  142. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “When rates fall for mortgages that’s not good for housing. If rates have to fall it’s because there is no demand. No demand means lower prices. The lower rates lag just like the hikes. Know the cycle know what comes next.”

  143. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Only a matter of time…you have to be nuts to bet against elon long-term.

    https://twitter.com/jayscottley/status/1608508251624337411?s=46&t=E0j5voYbsvNPSF1gWff1QA

  144. 3b says:

    Time Magazine article by Columbia grad progressive saying the origins of exercise and calorie burning is racist. It started as a way for whites to increase their strength after Emancipation and immigration to the USA increased. It was started as a way to preserve the strength of the white race. The Time article and the author is rightfully being mocked and ridiculed for this nonsense. Keep the madness coming coming from these wack jobs on the radical left. Don’t be racist , support Black people being fat.

  145. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    We have hit peak “woke.” That’s insanity.

  146. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What’s the most important investing lesson you learned in 2022?

    For me, it’s liquidity. The Fed truly controls price discovery in both directions.

  147. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Berkshire Hathaway has been around since the early 1800s long before Warren Buffet ever got involved, he did not diversify it from textiles until the 1970s, and used it to fund the purchase of GEICO stock and later the entire company. He made money lots of it over the years but it was never unicorn stocks formed sometimes by SPAC mergers with thin revenues and negative earnings, his wealth is tied to Berkshire. He claims to this day he would be much richer if he just stuck to buying insurance companies with his own money instead of running Berkshire.

    There is no comparison…Cathie will be long forgotten about, her ETF strategy is a failed one and investors had to flee, her AUM is low now perhaps as low as $6 billion down from what $50 billion? No comparison whatsoever, buying stocks in well established companies is not the same as buying unicorn stocks or worse anything tied to crypto..

  148. Very Stable Genius says:

    “ Mr. Santos told The Post that he was living in Huntington, on Long Island, at his sister’s home. But court documents, as well as interviews with neighbors and a doorman, show that she resides in Elmhurst, Queens.

    Campaign disclosures, however, show that Mr. Santos paid Cleaner 123, which lists the house in Huntington as its address, nearly $11,000 in rent and a deposit. When reached by phone, a representative from Cleaner 123 confirmed that it was a cleaning company, but hung up before answering why it had received rent payments from Mr. Santos.

    Many questions remain about Mr. Santos’s campaign expenditures: It is not clear which expenditures were made on behalf of staff, versus for the candidate himself. “

  149. BananaJoe says:

    You are not commenting on an apparent ped0phile being invited to the white house but have a lot to say about this santos character. Telling.

  150. leftwing says:

    Re: Santos

    Fabs, not going to get rise out of me, nor am I trying to ‘put distance’ on this topic….you have me confused with someone else…I have no dog in this fight other than ROFLMAO as the left melts down, the comments in the NYT article are hilarious. Entire lack of self-awareness of their own party.

    Me? Just watching from the cheap seats with my popcorn. Remember, I’m the one who posed the question why we should remain united….each denigration of each seat in each branch of government by both parties gets us ever closer…

  151. leftwing says:

    Chi, dear sir, you know me better….we are both aware of the soiree thrown by Messrs Black and Scholes, but have you forgotten how to handle that one unruly guest? I avoid him at all costs, unless I am taking something positive away….I must admit though, sometimes I am tipsy enough to run around uncovered and naked….just adds to the fun.

    Your concern is duly noted but unwarranted.

    https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/trading/what-is-theta-in-options-trading-15953

  152. Phoenix says:

    Going to be a balmy 55 today with bright sunshine. Nice day to do an oil change.

  153. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice,

    Read this. He did the same thing as Cathie. Took emotional risks. Of course, with buffet you only look at the big picture and with cathie the focus only on the failures of the past two years that were out of her control due to macro conditions that killed everyone in tech. Big picture, she took a huge risk in 2014 and knoxked it out of the park. She is loaded now. Her ETF is down big? Well, so is faecook….so is amazon. Etc. So why wouldn’t she be down too?

    “People look at the rich and powerful and sometimes feel that they’ve always been that way. What many don’t see are the struggles and failures endured in the early years, and sometimes even in the middle years, of these wealthy traders’ careers.

    It is understood that there are bumps in the road when you consider that most traders’ fortunes are made through risk-taking behaviour.

    Take the case of one well-known trader, a man you’ve likely heard of by the name of Warren Buffett.

    You might think that Mr Buffett has always been successful, but the truth is he’s had his share of failures, and some were caused by risky behaviour.

    The very first failure he experienced was in 1951 when he purchased a Sinclair Texaco station. Buffett is considered one of the best businessmen in all history, but he was never able to turn a profit from that gas station.

    He then decided to try his hand at trading, and by 1962 he was a millionaire. But that doesn’t mean he still didn’t have failures to face.

    One of those failures was the purchase of Berkshire Hathaway. What is now his flagship brand was once a textile business. Buffett began buying shares in the company in 1962, but as he noticed a sharp decline in business, he made a deal with then CEO Seabury Stanton to sell his shares back to the company.

    When the papers for the deal were delivered to Buffett, he saw that Stanton had changed the deal and offered 1/8 a point less than what was agreed.

    Now, this is where the risk comes in, and it was an unintended and unexpected risk because it came from Buffett’s own emotions. He was so angry at Stanton for changing the deal that he kept his shares and went on to purchase enough shares to take control of the company, so he could fire Stanton.

    Definitely a risky move in a declining business, and one that was fuelled by emotion rather than logic.

    To make matters worse, after taking control of Berkshire Hathaway he kept the business running for another 20 years, trying and failing to realise a profit from a dying industry in the U.S. To this day, Buffett calls it his “$200 billion mistake”.

    To Mr Buffett’s credit, he was still able to become successful, despite his failures and unintended risk-taking.”

  154. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just like Buffett, if she keeps at her strategy, she will be fine long-term. She is good at picking winners in disruptive innovation. She knows her chit. She will be fine in time.

    She has created a personalized vehicle to invest in innovation. She knew what type of workers/skills she needed for the team. She created an out of box approach and I think they will be successful long-term, esp since they have remained true to the strategy despite the terrible environment and constant mocks to their team they have held true to strategy. I love that. That’s what winners do.

  155. grim says:

    Nice enough day to replace the old storm door with the pretty full-glass one.

    Not a huge fan of storm doors, but love the original single-paned solid wood door that’s currently hung. Not worth replacing that with some expensive shitty looking fiberglass door.

    Only problem is I’m a half an inch too wide. Didn’t realize the old storm door was completely custom. Dreading having to rip the door trim off, retrim, paint, and install the new door.

    What should have been 30 minutes is a 3 hour project.

  156. Chicago says:

    To capture enough premium to be worth the bother, do you write in size or with positions that have chunky implied vol? Or is everything you do some kind of spread?

    Another thing, do you create structures from scratch or do you use templates that throw up chains for you to pick and choose?

    leftwing says:
    December 30, 2022 at 8:29 am

    https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/trading/what-is-theta-in-options-trading-15953

  157. BRT says:

    Have you even looked at her trades? She buys high, knife catches on the crash, and then sells the position in the end to lock in the loss permanently.

  158. Fabius Maximus says:

    Bananas,

    Did Dennis Hastert show up at the front door of the WH?

    And if you want to discuss Minnesota, how about we start here.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/21/minnesota-gop-in-ruins-shocking-scandal-506487

    Since I came to this country in the 90s i have watched a endless parade of Family values GOP get outed for various Crimes and Misdemeanors. While there have been a few on the D side the ratio is large. When it does happen on the D side (Franken/Weiner) they clean house quickly.

  159. Phoenix says:

    Storm door will really extend the life of the wood door, less maintenance, lets light in when it gets a bit warmer as you can keep the wood door open.

    Worth 3 hrs.

    Or pay someone a couple hundred.

  160. Fabius Maximus says:

    Left,

    I’m here to keep you honest. your politics is like your trading. Your are team red through and through, but you like to hedge both sides of the trade. So you’ll throw out little collars and straddles like this on Santos to protect your downside.

    I didn’t forget you only watch the first segment of Tucker. I assume all the wingnut dog whistles and Race Baiting happen in the later segments.

  161. Hold my beer says:

    I learned 2 things yesterday.

    1. Exercise is racist and started after emancipation. Odd, since there are records of Greeks and Romans exercising over 2,000 years ago.

    2. Time is still being published.

  162. Juice Box says:

    Crappy rebuttal Pumps, risk taking is what everyone does when they buy an investment. A physical Texaco gas station investment does not equate to a crypto investment that is not even backed by anything real as it does not hold crypto at all. At the end of the day Buffet sold that Texaco gas station for a loss and it’s probably still at that location pumping gas after all these years. For ARK and Cathie holding crypto synthetics like the Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust GBTC it’s down -78% this year and have been buying more!! hahahaha…!! Warren went and bought Chevron..CVX this year a real company with revenue and earnings far better investment than any crypto rat poison and it’s up 52.27% this year.

    I’ll shadow Warren Buffet’s trades over anything Cathie Woods does..she will be forgotten about except for the history books that will include a chapter on the Crypto decade and how abysmal it was for most risk takers, it will in there with the Tulip Bulb mania….

  163. OC1 says:

    https://time.com/6242949/exercise-industry-white-supremacy/

    Thought I would post this since the people commenting on it don’t seem to have actually read it.

  164. Juice Box says:

    Fab – Crap story about a creep, he is going on trial soon and should get the maximum, seems as bad as Epstein… Why look so far away from here anyway? Minnesota is a blue state and has been for decades, every presidential election since the 1970s they voted solidly democrat.. We have plenty of local politicians that are creeps.

    But anyway as to your point. “When it does happen on the D side (Franken/Weiner) they clean house quickly.”

    I did not see any Democrats move quickly on the last three governors of NY. Andrew Cuomo or Elliot Spitzer or even David Paterson…All creeps nobody batted an eye until there was a chance of criminal prosecution. Last I checked all three walked away with a negotiated non-prosecution agreements….

    Last I checked both Al Franken and Bill Clinton are still Super Delegates in the party. Have they been kicked out? Should I go through the entire list of party members state by state?

  165. Juice Box says:

    re: storm door..

    I loved this old house episode when Tom Silva ditches the installation 1/2 way through.

    https://www.thisoldhouse.com/doors/21124526/how-to-install-a-storm-door

    Make sure to use a good silicon sealer. No crappy caulk…Also door gaskets should only compress 60%-70% for a proper seal.

  166. Ex says:

    11:07…. Al Franken……f’ing eyeroll.
    Get your head out of your ass.

  167. BananaJoe says:

    So because there was once a Republican politician who later became known to be a ped0phile, that makes it okay for democrats to normalize ped0 now? If you believe drag shows and s3xual innuendo is appropriate for kids you’re a pervert. That’s what the left is pushing.

  168. Chicago says:

    To acknowledge what Stu posted the other day.
    Ten sells off to 389 after flirting with 3 1/2. The real change is with the BOJ.

    I think there is virtually no more negative yielding global debt.

    I really wish we could get to 500 and have it stick.

  169. BananaJoe says:

    Nj schools now talk to 6 year olds about s3xual anatomy. They teach gender identity to 8 year olds. An@l sex to 13 year olds. All thanks to Phil Murphy and the democrats. They are great friends to ped0philes.

  170. leftwing says:

    BRT, even worse. She buys high, sells low doing so with absolutely terrible companies…not going to recap the operational shortcomings of her horror shows like ROKU, TDOC, HOOD, etc since you get it, meanwhile the idiot who has zero capability of any fundamental analysis whatsoever when faced with the entirely logical resultant 90% share price decline on fundamentally unsound companies somehow concludes those companies are ‘winners’. Every shyster needs suckers, I guess….

    chi, all of the above except templates. Paid a lot of ‘tuition’ learning option strategies during the AIG meltdown. A not inexpensive education that has paid off well though.

    Deep OTM – like a penny or two – not much. There is a dedicated group I trade with that has more than a few of its members doubling their portfolios each year for four years now (yes, through early 2020 even) on that strategy. They use 100x leverage or better…Just watched a guy recently grab a grand by ‘taking on’ about $1.2 million of AAPL ‘risk’ for four days…THAT is most definitely not my cup of tea lol.

    For me, yes, I can do a trade on nominal vol, there is a number at which I will write nearly anything…did a meme like GME over 400 (yes, 400 IV, not a typo), better companies at 200….those are small pieces though, a few trades a quarter at best unless we are in market meltdown mode. Mostly I’ll look at IV percentile on quality companies I diligence and catalysts I understand …IVP has come in recently, think I posted that a few months back, vol just got sucked out of the market one week, dried right up…amazing actually to watch it happen real time…more troubling though for at least three months now for most shares RV has exceeded IV, that’s a bigger issue than exactly where nominal IV is…I used to do straight up naked when IVP was higher, now with the above situation I stick more to spreads. For the handful of companies I want to own I’ll pair call debit spreads with put credit spreads, often in a ratio (ie, 4 credit to one debit) to get net zero out of pocket (or a small credit) and neutralize theta. Benefit of that is trade management and since I’m looking at owning the company anyway I can ‘walk down’ the trades if the stock really misbehaves and end up with a large position at a favorable price…arrived at my META position that way, rode it down from spot 197 to spot 88, breaking even, currently have (still through options) a meaningful slug with a breakeven of 83 and 27 points of gain provided the shares stay above 110 on the debit spread…if they don’t, I’ll continue the strategy and reset the basis lower (also note that gain is without accounting for the offsetting credit on the writes which strikes are beneath the b/e)…I actually can stay solvent on this one longer than Zuck can run out the pain of losing tens of billions personally, lol. No way I could have done anything near that setup in the face-ripping bear in that stock with actual shares, aside from it being impossible to time…other end of the spectrum there is a company I like I’ve mentioned here where I am a significant slug of the open interest at the liquid strike, naked….I’ve been at 60% of maxprofit for a bit, except for liking the company I would have exited that one a while back if (big if) I had other opportunities for the capital longer term, realizing that amount of gain at any time is a crazy return let alone quickly out of the chute. That one is much less a trade and a company I want to own, just not at exactly current spot…

    Overall it’s fun, in addition to making good money and measurably beyond market returns. As you digest the above you can see the nearly unlimited permutations of which spreads, which ratios, which expiries, and how wide which all come together into a well mixed stew depending on how I fundamentally feel about the stock and what my stance is on it (trade v want to own LT).

    Also, and very importantly, until the market starts to tell us the bear is ending I’m doing this with a small portion of my portfolio, with 70-80% in cash (equivalents). And, looking at one screen right now, with the premium I currently have open expiring in 22 days I will kick January off with a 4% return, on the entire portfolio, provided the market performs better than -20%…that is, of course, without consideration to my long positions…All fun and games until someone loses an eye :)

  171. OC1 says:

    “Nj schools now talk to 6 year olds about s3xual anatomy. They teach gender identity to 8 year olds. An@l sex to 13 year olds. ”

    Maybe better they learn about that stuff in school rather than from P#rnhub?

  172. Juice Box says:

    Bannana – Unless you live in a cave kids today have a world of what can be considered obscenities at their finger tips. They don’t learn the facts of life from watching silent reel to reel movies in the neighbors garage or the VHS player in some kids rec room while the parents were away at work. There were even naughty games on the Atari 2600 in all it’s 8 bit glory…

    https://www.pcmag.com/news/red-hot-blocky-porn-ataris-lost-adult-titles

    Much safer than school right?

    I am BTW with the teachers here on this one. Only teach basics, let them learn the other stuff from the iPhone…and their social groups….

  173. BananaJoe says:

    Children and adolescents shouldn’t be viewing pron. How about letting kids be kids and parents the same. You don’t know what damage you are inflicting on these children, it’s an experiment at best.

    Funny if you tried to talk to a kid that way outside the school you would be reported. Wrap it in sanctimonious language and pass a decree and you can get away with it.

  174. leftwing says:

    Haha, appreciate your fun with words on the analogy Fabs. Made me smile.

    Not Team Red, Team Rational.

    Since that team is not yet F1, if I’m watching a race I pick a team that is the closest and for most races that is Team Red. Although, just like F1, on any given Sunday it is not improbable I pull for a different driver.

    And, just for clarity, if I watch Tucker (not a frequent event, it’s been at least three weeks since I’ve seen him) I usually only watch the A segment. The rest is mostly filler for me.

  175. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao…

    “Without inflation and debt there was zero positive GDP in my lifetime, last 20 year’s economy only existed because of Fed $ bailouts. Consumerism economy is kabuki theatre. Post WW2 era was a lie. 🤥”

    “US Federal Government debt.

    1990: $3.2 trillion

    1995: $4.9 trillion

    2000: $5.6 trillion

    2005: $7.9 trillion

    2010: $13.5 trillion

    2015: $18.1 trillion

    2022: $31 trillion

    Buy #Bitcoin , Bitcoin has $0 debt.”

  176. 3b says:

    OC I read the Time article and commented on it. In short it’s a tortured bunch of nonsense, and shows just how far those on the far left will go.

  177. OC1 says:

    3b-

    Does it seem crazy to you that “early 20th century fitness enthusiasts” were saying “white women should start building up their strength because we need more white babies”? That was the time of Jim Crow and strong nativist sentiment in the US.

    The Nazis did the same thing- encouraged women to exercise so they could be “good Aryan mothers”.

    I don’t know whether the author’s interpretation of the historical record is correct, but it is not something I would dismiss out of hand either.

  178. SmallGovConservative says:

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 30, 2022 at 10:30 am
    “…you only watch the first segment of Tucker. I assume all the wingnut dog whistles and Race Baiting happen in the later segments.”

    TCDS!

    I see Flab and a few of the other Dem stooges are doing some year end excuse-making. Wouldn’t it be easier to just admit that Dems are incompetent — and nuts — than to continually apologize for them (exercise is racist, gay pron is an appropriate topic for elementary schoolers — you guys really want to go to bat for people that believe these things)??? In any case, and while you guys are in excuse-making mode, how is Karmella doing in her role as border czar — or that emptiest of suits Pete Buttgug as Sec of Transportation?

  179. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For the 10 year yield….how much money is sucked out of the stock market on each percentage point rise?

  180. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Tesla Megapack

    — Costs $2 million+ each
    — Now LFP based: easier to scale supply chain, safer, longer cycle life
    — New Lathrop factory can make 10,000 / year
    — Sold out for the next two years
    — Elon on Spaces: “basically unlimited demand”

    tesla.com/megapack/design

    https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1608702752565366784?s=46&t=P87U7RiZ1gOfX3x8gKk4Uw

  181. chicagofinance says:

    Based on this, I am assuming you stick to spreads on strikes, as opposed to dates or other permutations. I assume that theta decay is always the killer, and being net short decay is enviable. Believe it or not, I learned a lot of stuff from unsophisticated retail traders who focused on the basics, like out of pocket net income of closed trades, because my original approach had been theoretical as I had no practical training. They kind of took my head out of my a$$.

    Also, The Red exploded last night. They have another game tonight and then a huge early January. The next couple of weeks are going to make or break the season. Just drove by Baker yesterday……..

    leftwing says:
    December 30, 2022 at 11:44 am
    For the handful of companies I want to own I’ll pair call debit spreads with put credit spreads, often in a ratio (ie, 4 credit to one debit) to get net zero out of pocket (or a small credit) and neutralize theta.

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Go long Chicago.

    “Chicago is a ridiculously under tapped ecosystem. It’s moment is fast approaching. Lower cost of living, tons of design talent, music talent, Virgil DNA all over the place, lots of new cultural and creative talent starting moments, new funds launching, will be obvious in 5 yrs”

    “Also, Chicago enjoys a nearly carbon-free grid thanks to four local nuclear plants

    That’s round-the-clock, weather-proof electricity to power all of our future aspirations

    Extremely bullish on this city”

  183. trick says:

    What should have been 30 minutes is a 3 hour project

    Grim, seems like every project I do is like this now. Projects are getting added faster than I can complete them at home.

  184. 3b says:

    Oc1 We all know about the Nazis and racial superiority. That’s the Nazis, and it’s an incredible ridiculous stretch to equate exercise with racism. There have been games of physical fitness and strength going back thousands of years. It’s just ludicrous to equate physical fitness with racism. It’s these kinds of nonsense articles that are written for simple gullible minds, just like the wack jobs on the right. The radical left however, is outdoing themselves with their madness, and is going to drive moderates to the Republican side, as the thought if these lunatics on the radical left ever gaining power is frightening. I find it staggering that you can defend this article as some sort of valid piece of journalism.

  185. chicagofinance says:

    It will be the first major U.S. municipality to go bankrupt.
    There will be rioting in the streets.
    You already see it in the bond spreads.
    The corruption puts NJ to shame.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 30, 2022 at 2:16 pm
    Go long Chicago.

    “Chicago is a ridiculously under tapped ecosystem. It’s moment is fast approaching. Lower cost of living, tons of design talent, music talent, Virgil DNA all over the place, lots of new cultural and creative talent starting moments, new funds launching, will be obvious in 5 yrs”

    “Also, Chicago enjoys a nearly carbon-free grid thanks to four local nuclear plants

    That’s round-the-clock, weather-proof electricity to power all of our future aspirations

    Extremely bullish on this city”

  186. 3b says:

    Chgo: You got that right on Chicago, the city. For a little light reading I suggest that people who are interested read an OS from the city’s latest GO offering.

  187. OC1 says:

    3b-

    If you read the whole article (and not just Time magazines dumb title and lead in) you will see that it is an interview with a historian who wrote a book about the history of exercise in the US (so what the ancient greeks were doing 2000 years ago is irrelevant).

    The historian in that interview doesn’t “equate physical fitness with racism” she just says that some early exercise proponents in the US had racist motives. (That’s the only mention of racism and exercise- one paragraph out of 20).

    Why do you find that idea so outlandish? There are people today who say we need more white babies! Do you think people thought differently 100 years ago?

    And Nazi ideology didn’t just spontaneously arise in 1933- they were partly inspired by ideas from the US (like anti-miscegenation laws).

  188. 3b says:

    Oc1 As I said, I dead read it, and again what is the point of the article? Some early exercise enthusiasts had racist motives for exercise? Again, so what? Some early proponents of……. fill in the blanks were racist. What’s the purpose of the article? What’s the takeaway for the reader, or is it just more nonsense to add to the pile that’s already out there?

  189. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Holy chit, they currently hold 90% of the market. What an enormous head start!

    “But in 2023 we’re con­fi­dent: head­sets that give you a choice of VR (where you’re in a vir­tual world) and AR (where the vir­tual is over­laid in your real world) are com­ing. And they won’t just be from Meta, cur­rent holder of 90% of the VR mar­ket, ac­cord­ing to re­search firm IDC.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-that-will-change-your-life-in-2023-11672405471

  190. OC1 says:

    3b-

    What’s the point of an article about the history of philosophy, or clocks, or skiing…?

  191. 3b says:

    Oc1 She claims she is a historian of fitness, and she feels the need to note some who advocated for fitness were racists/ Nazis. It’s clear from her background that the purpose of her article was to focus on the racist piece. It’s obvious to me she has an agenda. If you wish to rationalize that away and insist that is not the case, then that’s your choice.

  192. OC1 says:

    3b-

    What do you think her agenda is?

  193. 3b says:

    Oc1 I will let you determine that.

  194. Fast Eddie says:

    ChiFi,

    Wow. Didn’t take long for that connection to emerge. Her career and her life (in a lot of ways) is ruined. Her brother is a sociopath… I wonder when she diagnosed him? And is she a sociopath, too?

  195. leftwing says:

    chi, neat, you up there for the games or otherwise?

    on the spreads, yes, most often verticals rather than calendars but I have played the latter. Less opportunity/reason to, as the fundamental outlook on the company and stock drive the trade and rarely do I see (outside of specific future setups) enough of a fine point that different expiries will give…basically, I’m not smart enough to make those distinctions on short time frames, I’m just happy if I get direction correct and some semblence of magnitude. One exception is something like ROKU where CW will regularly come in and provide some support when her shitcos wet the bed on earnings…usually, a downtrend continues in most equities on a bad earnings call, pull up the ROKU chart this year she backstops it (temporarily). Nice calendar opportunity there…win on both legs….

    I mentioned previously I had four accounts, trading and LT investment in both IRA and main…in 2019 the LT investment aspect started to evaporate as I went heavily cash and opportunistic trading…over this past year or maybe two I’ve moved toward spreads as given the limits on the IRA (no margin) I had to use them in order to maintain buying power and quite frankly the spreads were performing better than the straight writes I was doing, risk adjusted.

    I’m also a fan of ratios. Probably my second most frequent strategy.

    Bored at the Statler tonight? Pull up the 3/17/23 chain for GOOG and run an 80/75P vertical, a 70P naked, 2x the number of 70/65P…different breakevens, capital requirements (risk management), returns, even thetas…It’s the beauty of the strategies, not only can I get paid for being wrong (even if the stock moves against me) but I can also structure the best trade specifically for the viewpoint I’m trying to express….in uncertain markets that’s much better than a binary stock strategy (up/down) with a 1:1 payout on 50% odds….

  196. 3b says:

    Fast: I would not paint that poor woman with her brothers brush. It’s not right to assume because he is a psychopath, that his sister is too. I am sure we all know people who have siblings who are horrible people and have done bad things, and yet they themselves are good people, perfectly fine. Same parents, same household, and yet dramatically different results.

  197. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    Let’s hope that woman is a good soul and somehow insulated from it all.

  198. 3b says:

    Fast: I hope so. It’s sad.

  199. Hold my beer says:

    3b is right. I suspect a lot of moderates and independents will become more likely to vote republicans as the progressive wing grows.

    Also what’s going to happen to New York as the affluent flee due to progressive tax and social policies. How much longer before they run out of other peoples money to spend?

  200. BRT says:

    I did not see any Democrats move quickly on the last three governors of NY.

    Or McGreevey. At least SNL had some balls back then. James Gandolfini on the situation.

    https://youtu.be/AYGNqUWcOCs?t=77

  201. Phoenix says:

    Fast: I would not paint that poor woman with her brothers brush.

    Hell, she has already been powder coated and hardened already.

    And the ” internet detectives” that would have skinned and burned alive at least ten other innocents- one even posted this- Internet enabled Salem Witch Hunters are alive and well in 2022, and most are women.

    “Better to fry ten than miss him! Besides isn’t everyone complaining we’re over populated?”

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