Predictions 2023!

Posted on December 31, 2022 by grim

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Recession / Economic

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Commodities

Inflation

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66 Responses to Predictions 2023!

  1. Ex says:
    December 31, 2022 at 7:50 am

    Ccchhhhina. Fiirst.

  2. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2022 at 8:24 am

    NJ Real Estate 2023: Forever low inventory + forever high demand = forever elevated prices. Prices never stun on the downside. You’ll never get an advantage or a bargain here. If you don’t have the dough to compete, drive out route 80 until you hit the Pennsy border. It doesn’t matter if it’s a 9/11 event or a pandemic, owning a house in the NY metro area is a guarantee for return on investment.

    Economics 2023: I got downsized in 2008 after the Lehman collapse. It took me a few months to get a contracting gig. If that’s the worst it gets, we’re 15 laps ahead of the competition.

    Stocks/Securities 2023: A back and forth tug of war. Democrats pound the table for more regulation and higher taxes to feed their addictions and afflictions, Republicans try to remove boundaries to allow the American production class to make some money. The buy and sell cycle by the major players allows the little guy to eek out some gains.

    Inflation 2023: Stubbornly high as the FED battles the democrats, pleading with them to stop using muppets as s0cial fodder and adhere to pure physics instead of symbolic rhetoric.

  3. Ex says:
    December 31, 2022 at 9:02 am

    Cool story bro.

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 31, 2022 at 11:19 am

    The 2023 recession is the most well announced recession in history and the prediction for the S&P500 by end of 2023 is by almost all economists to be positive. Recession or rising equity markets, or both? Lol

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 31, 2022 at 11:22 am

    US interest in “how to buy bitcoin” on the rise, 500% increase since August. trends.google.com/trends/explore…

    https://twitter.com/tuurdemeester/status/1608905278497648640?s=46&t=OUlnPTk9sAXkYUP_Co7ZXw

    #ETH is even better, basically matching #BTC  now. NFTs not so much…

    https://twitter.com/tomasrollo/status/1608910543859089412?s=46&t=OUlnPTk9sAXkYUP_Co7ZXw

  6. Fast Eddie says:
    December 31, 2022 at 11:42 am

    Stocks fall to end Wall Street’s worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20%:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-fall-end-of-2022-wall-streets-worst-year-since-2008-rcna63776

    Build back better.

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 31, 2022 at 11:49 am

    This is the first year on this blog that I can honestly say I have no idea what is going to happen to the economy this year. Absolutely no idea on what will happen to housing or the labor market. All I do know is that you can’t lose buying good companies or index funds now if you hold long-term. Also, high risk (only 10% of your net worth should be used here) ark type growth stocks will change your life if you hit on current level buys, even if they drop another 50%.

    I think for large cap stocks…tesla and meta will be the leaders end of decade. They are both one huge step ahead of their competitors already. These are good companies with a ton of growth opportunities over the next 10 years. Not many large caps can compete with their risk to reward opportunities at current pricing.

    “Imagine if Stage 2 lasts longer than expected. What if the panic comes at the end of next year. +9 more months of flattish to down price action with more aggressive bear market rallies. Just cleans everyone out then we drops to hades for the depression. Pure brutality. Possible.”

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 31, 2022 at 12:58 pm

    The smartest thing you could have done on this blog over the years was to listen to Lib. He doesn’t lose money. LoL. True story.

  10. Ex says:
    December 31, 2022 at 1:19 pm

    Prediction: this is the year Pumpy, Drumpfy, and Gary form a bond.
    They’ll f-ck around and find out.

  11. Phoenix says:
    December 31, 2022 at 1:42 pm

    Job security for me. This happens every day.
    Well actually it’s the boys over at Lenox Hill that are going to get this one. Radiology across the street, yeah, he needs a stat CT scan that’s for sure.

    Most likely taxpayers will eat this one. I’d rather pay for this than weapons in Ukraine, this guy is one of ours.

    NYC will sink.
    https://twitter.com/ViralNewsNYC/status/1607815130598752256?s=20&t=VnzfQIpfh-UHUbKMuz91AA

  12. leftwing says:
    December 31, 2022 at 2:23 pm

    LOL. That had to hurt. At least when the narcotics wear off. He was at some height.

  13. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2022 at 2:32 pm

    Here are my 2023 predictions..

    I made mine into questions added a few political and sports
    Feel free to emulate add more and elaborate too.

    1) Will real estate continue to decline? YES
    2) Case Schiller national index at end of 2023? Index will fall to 230 near the pre-pandemic number
    3) Will the Fed start to cut interest rates in 2023? NO cuts but pause increase is possible
    4) Recession declared? NO NBER will want to see bigger declines in employment, forecasts so far GDP will print positive
    5) Will the Ukraine vs Russia war end or any ceasefire attempt last? NO end, ceasefire potential but nothing lasting as Russia will use the time to re-arm
    6) Will Joe Biden run for president again? YES as Jill likes the limelight and will tell him to run again
    7) Will Donald Trump be indicted? YES but perhaps only for the stolen White House records not Jan 6th
    8) Will S&P 500 fall at least 10%? YES
    9) What then for S&P? Trade sideways all the coming layoffs will improve P/E
    9) Will Twitter go bankrupt? YES as strategy to survive debt and reboot
    10) Will crypto coins continue to fall? Yes we passed peak inflated expectations. Most crypto investors are now underwater and will stay that way
    11) More crypto regulation in USA? Yes it will be codified as a regulated commodity and not a currency like the Crypto Clowns want and silicon valley and wall st money will dry up
    11) Metaverse Yay or Nay? Nay same as my last prediction a complete flop even with cheaper headsets. Funny thing is Zuck gave up on his Crypto currency dreams much quicker
    12) Electric Vehicles sales up or down? Sales up perhaps 9%-10% of US market this year. There will be nowhere to quick charge and fist fights will erupt over charging spaces
    13) Tesla Stock? Down more as there are 40 plus new EV models coming to market in the USA this year, few can afford a model Y.
    13) Will Hunter Biden be indicted? YES and quickly pardoned as politically they need to get it done before campaign/election
    14) Superbowl Bills vs Eagles..Bills win by 3
    15) Women’s soccer will not get a three-peat

  14. Libturd says:
    December 31, 2022 at 2:50 pm

    At this time next year:

    The housing market will be down 20% nationally, 10% in places where it didn’t run up insanely and about 15% in the NY Metro.

    The stock market will be down another 10% on the year, but will be down another 25% or so when it bottoms out around the middle of Summer among a rash of layoffs and non-stop recession talk.

    The FFR will end the year up another 1.25 to a 5.5 to 5.75 rate as inflation slows, but not enough to please Powell or whoever replaces him.

    Used cars will be dirt cheap by Summer and 2024 release new cars will be priced lower than many 2022’s.

    Inflation will slow to 3%.

    Pumps will still be a shill for ARKK and DNA as each finishes another 50% down from where they are today driven by the continued devaluation of TSLA (the darling that put her on the map and that she will be the most resistant to sell. DNA will continue to move down in sympathy with the STILL overvalued NASDAQ.

    The rest of you will envy my market predicting prowess when the Nasdaq bottoms out in the mid 7,000s. At which point, I will be begging everyone to back the truck up to load up on Nasdaq names (especially newer ones). Pumps will fail to do so as he will be scared away from the increased volatility always present near capitulation and instead will fall for the advice of the financial pundits that will have changed their stories to fear and a forever damaged market. They will say again, this time it’s different. Pumps will again believe them.

    Grim will start making wine coolers among a resurgence in their popularity.

    ChiFi will buy one of those apartments in the Bell Center Mall.

    Phoenix will continue to extoll the young nurses he works with confusing hard work and intelligence with the beauty of twenty somethings.

    The Conservatives here will all go completely crazy as Trump splits their party by going independent which ushers in a second term of Biden/Harris.

    Ex moves back East and buys https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zillow.com%2Fhomedetails%2F200-Elwood-Ave-Newark-NJ-07104%2F2129926534_zpid to prove his compassion for the downtrodden.

    Gary continues to complain about everything about Bergen County except for the property values.

    ShoreGuy, will stop in to wish us all another Merry Xmas sometime in December.

  16. 3b says:
    December 31, 2022 at 2:58 pm

    Lib: Where did the wine coolers come from?

  17. Phoenix says:
    December 31, 2022 at 3:04 pm

    Outsource this, Bitchez

    https://cnn.it/3CellPc

  18. HoboWithaTank says:
    December 31, 2022 at 3:11 pm

    The Ukrainian war ends in April 2023 and with the risk of WW3 off the table the US stock market will surge back up to the all time highs.

  19. Juice Box says:
    December 31, 2022 at 3:39 pm

    This was peak wine cooler..I did not have a white suit but a friend of mine did..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI0gAxwwMV4&t=59s

  20. SmallGovConservative says:
    December 31, 2022 at 4:09 pm

    Libturd says:
    December 31, 2022 at 2:50 pm
    “The Conservatives here will all go completely crazy as Trump splits their party by going independent which ushers in a second term of Biden/Harris.”

    I know you’re excited for this to happen, but you’re a year early with the prediction.

    Here are a few more 2023 predictions…

    Recognizing they may only have a patsy in the White House for another year or so, China formally moves on Taiwan; likely a blockade initially, but then…

    Britney Griner returns to Russia to play basketball — because the pay is so good — and is arrested again. Joe gives Alaska back to Russia to secure her return; he claims to have tried to get Paul Whelan as well, but says in the end Russia would only do a 1:1 swap

    Sec Trans Pete Buttgug continues to ignore the nation’s transportation system, but writes a book on breastfeeding for men

    Joe formally recognizes Hunter’s love-child as his granddaughter, and she and Hunter’s ho make an emotional visit to the WH for the annual Easter egg hunt; CNN and MSDNC provide special coverage of the event

    After an appearance on The View, in which he apologizes for stealing ladies clothing, Sam Brinton is re-hired by Joe, and becomes the first tranny to lead NASA

    Mayor Adams discontinues trash collection — permanently — to prove the point that the mean Republicans are ruining NYC by continuing to bus nearly a half of one percent of Joe’s illegal aliens to sanctuary cities

    Montclair decides that Lib unfairly took advantage of the dingbat that bought his apartment building, and force him to buy it back; outraged, Lib blankets his front lawn with Trump 2024 signs

  21. Libturd says:
    December 31, 2022 at 5:05 pm

    3b,

    Just being silly.

  22. Matrixsized By2030 says:
    December 31, 2022 at 5:14 pm

    Don’t know about 2023.

    But at some point in the future in a bid to save Meta’s VR world Zuck, after having a seance with Guccione and Hefner buys out only fan and other alike apps, builds a cyberneticly link body suits and goes on to Quadrillinaire status as the real world goes fully matrixsized as no one leaves their home and just lie in a sticky mess while wearing the suit.

  23. 3b says:
    December 31, 2022 at 5:19 pm

    Libturd: Somehow it works! Bartyles & Grim Wine Coolers!

  24. Libturd says:
    December 31, 2022 at 5:25 pm

    It kind of does.

  25. grim says:
    December 31, 2022 at 6:31 pm

    Have been wanting to do canned cocktails – big investment in equipment.

  26. Ex says:
    December 31, 2022 at 8:17 pm

    2:51 yowza!! Heating & Cooling & Monthly Cleaning Costs, TBD!

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 1, 2023 at 12:54 am

    Happy New Year!

    Hope you realize meta is prob the safest bet on big caps in America next to tesla.

  28. grim says:
    January 1, 2023 at 7:37 am

    Happy New Year!

  29. grim says:
    January 1, 2023 at 8:02 am

    Spent an hour writing a predictions post, disappeared.

    That’s how 2023 is going to go.

  30. Fast Eddie says:
    January 1, 2023 at 8:40 am

    Happy New Year!

    Grim, rewrite your predictions.

  31. Juice Box says:
    January 1, 2023 at 9:38 am

    Happy New Year!! All the best in 2023!

  32. leftwing says:
    January 1, 2023 at 10:27 am

    HNY All.

  33. Fabius Maximus says:
    January 1, 2023 at 10:29 am

    Happy New Year.

    I’ll throw a few in the pot.

    1) Will real estate continue to decline? Retail and office space will take a hit. Residential and Warehouse/Light Industrial will grow.

    3) Will the Fed start to cut interest rates in 2023? Yes, there is still too much liquidity in the system.
    4) Recession declared? Tough to call, but I say NO.
    5) Will the Ukraine vs Russia war end or any ceasefire attempt last? NO we continue on through next year.
    6) Will Joe Biden run for president again? YES and Kamala stays on the ticket.
    7) Will Donald Trump be indicted? YES and the Kids as well as a few CongressCritters.
    8) Will S&P 500 fall at least 10%? YES I’ll go 20%
    9) Will Twitter go bankrupt? YES Musk did too much damage, and the European Regulators will crush it.

    12) Electric Vehicles sales up or down? UP as smaller brands Volvo etc, put more models in the showrooms.
    13) Tesla Stock? DOWN Quality is bad, sales are down and the company has tapped out its market.
    13) Will Hunter Biden be indicted? NO, but i think once the tax case is resolved, he starts to sue.
    14) Superbowl 49ers beat Chiefs..
    15) Women’s soccer England.

  34. 3b says:
    January 1, 2023 at 10:47 am

    Happy New Year to all!

  35. Chicago says:
    January 1, 2023 at 10:53 am

    Happy New Year.

  36. Ex says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:09 am

    Happy Nude Year

  37. Libturd says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:13 am

    Happy STU Year!

  38. BRT says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:16 am

    Predictions:

    S&P, Nasdaq lose another 20% minimum
    Housing stalls
    Inflation “reduces down to 5%”
    NYC crime up
    Russia/Ukraine war “continues”. We get no updates, just quarterly 50 billlion dollar donations to Zelensky

  39. Ex says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:29 am

    Predictions:

    DeSantis launches his run for POTUS and simultaneously releases a new single on TikTok called “I can see clearly now (the gay is gone) which gets national airplay and launches him as a conservative pop star. He’s embarrassed by the subsequent release of a sex tape featuring his wife relentlessly pegging DeSantis with a 12” strap-on screaming “this one is for the Gipper…”

    Phoenix finds love again and his outlook brightens considerably until they try a threesome with a candy striper and his new lady runs off with the 19 year-old vixen.

    ChiFi continues to demonstrate market mastery and becomes Twitter’s new CFO but runs afoul of Elon when he suggests cleaning the SF HQ’s bathrooms and paying back rent to angry landlords.

    Gary finally sells his Bergen home and moves to the Pine Barrens where he proudly flies a Trump flag and a rebel flag until an angry neighbor is triggered and tries to burn Gary’s cabin down. They however share a beer become friends and begin a satisfying same-sex bromance that lasts until 2039.

    Grim decides to make an energy drink that also sustains erections in men over 50.
    He calls it “Peckerwood” as the cab features Woody Woodpecker and claims better efficacy than those little blue pills. He is forced to leave for parts unknown after the new drink sensation is found to cause blindness. His avid drinkers, however, don’t care.

    Lib builds a huge compound and foot massage clinic in CR where he finds life agreeable and most importantly….cheap.

    Lefty continues to straddle the fence politically and starts his own blog entitled “you is where you is” which immediately becomes required reading for investors who just want to thrive in any political environment.

    FabMax and NoOne are discovered to be long lost fraternal twins at a cars and coffee event in Point Pleasant.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:47 am

    When will you people realize that tesla is the new apple? One day you will get it. There are so many coming tailwinds with this company. Stop thinking it is a car company, it’s not. That’s what it started out as, but that’s not where it is going. The car profits are being used to create new revenue streams by constantly solving problems in our world. It’s a problem solving company and it’s as simple as that.

    “13) Tesla Stock? DOWN Quality is bad, sales are down and the company has tapped out its market”

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:49 am

    Car manufacturers don’t have the software developers or the engineers that can solve problems from cars to energy.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:50 am

    Tesla does and for a reason. It’s a tech problem solving company with some of the best most focused developers and engineers with a CEO that knows how to produce.

  43. Ex says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:54 am

    11:49 when I worked “with” IBM as early as the nineties IBM had entire teams dedicated to working with care makers to integrate technology into cars.

  44. Ex says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:55 am

    “Car Makers” …. f-cking spellcheck

    Apple has peaked btw. They’ll only grow through acquisition from here on out.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 1, 2023 at 11:58 am

    Zuckerburg too….guy is top notch ceo. He saw the future for facebook, and even though he could have milked facebook till it died, he f’ing has balls of steel and acts to save his company. Guy literally changed the name and vision, got destroyed by a short-term focused wallst who wanted him to milk facebook, and went on to own 90% of a new market with enormous growth potential. The guy is a beast of a ceo.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 1, 2023 at 12:01 pm

    Apple might get some growth with AR tech…but agree….their days of high growth are dead. It’s simply too risky for that company to be innovative when they have a guaranteed money making machine with that ecosystem. Their job is to protect that ecosystem and slowly adapt it to the changing world each year like cook has been doing.

  47. leftwing says:
    January 1, 2023 at 12:33 pm

    Predictions:

    ByStander finally loses it, writing an insanely complex malicious code that he releases on his employer’s servers. Rather than prosecution he is released to a white hat hacking firm, rising to CEO.

    Joyce founds a not-for-profit advisory firm dedicated to eradicating police violence. Her first main effort is funding a programmable ‘robocop’ using ByStander’s company’s code.

    Phoenix mistakes a young hot doctor for a nurse and she is strangely attracted to his open contempt toward her. They marry, she keeps her career, and Phoenix becomes a househusband raising their family. Ironically, she is a daughter of a local family court judge.

    I remarry as well. Fabs is in my wedding party. He knows my new spouse, a gay black transgender man.

    Grim will keep grimming. Makes the distillery his main hustle. He backward integrates through acquisition of overseas outsourcing companies any supply he cannot secure. Moves to India, maybe Central Europe, and is never heard from again.

    Lib purchases massive swathes of farmland in Costa Rica using his stock market profits. He becomes convinced he can take cost cutting to such a degree whereby it generates actual revenue. The herds on his land die from neglect, nearly bankrupting him. He falls back to an area he knows best, creating an ‘original NJ pizza and bagel’ empire. Becomes wealthy serving NJ transplants for whom he develops tract housing on his land. Believes, sincerely, that naming his Costa Rican developments after NJ towns is actually a good idea. He locates in New Montclair where he regularly bitches about taxes and municipal services.

    BRT co-invests with Lib in his developments, donates parts of his holdings as a nature preserve for the advancement of scientific discovery. A portion of that grant is secretly appropriated by Ex for a marijuana growing business, who becomes the leading supplier into the US through a porous Southern border. He is happily ensconced on his remote ranch alone intentionally with his wife but suffers an ‘Apocalypse Now’ type meltdown due to his total isolation from all things New Jersey.

    CW invests in Palantir around $6.00 per share. Pumps follows “all-in” at $2.00. Palantir promptly trades beneath 50 cents. In a vain attempt at a traffic stop to explain to anyone who will listen how a 75% loss is actually a gain Pump’s insufferably tortured illogic overwhelms the flawless coding of the robocops who rip him to pieces to just make it stop. PLTR stock plummets to pennies. ByStander acquires it through reverse merger, grants himself a massive option package, and promptly outsources all coding to Poland.

    Crushed, Juice, and 3b team up to found a politically moderate internet media company named “Big Tent” with the goal of uniting the Left and Right under areas of common agreement. Under their big tent theory they invite Eddie, SGC, and VSG onto the Board. Inevitably, the company implodes under the weight of editorial infighting but not before Murphy takes action against them for the honest publication of his gubernatorial record. Eddie is tried under an obscure pre-Revolutionary State insurgency law and sentenced to 20 years. VSG and Murphy become wealthy by shorting internet stocks immediately before the crackdown, yet inexplicably any mention of such is not to be found anywhere on the internet.

    SGC, sensing the impending blowup, flees to the newly declared Free State of Texas where he is shielded by HMB. He is recruited to remotely take over the Hannity show slot on Fox News after Hannity was discovered to in fact be running child exploitation activities out of a pizzeria, one franchised to him by Lib no less. Lib is now put in the uncomfortable position of needing to defend the activities of a former Fox News host.

    With Murphy’s star ascending in the Democrat Party and on the back of the robocop and Big Tent debacles stock markets crash. No One and Chi, always above the fray, avoid any damage and broaden their blue chip portfolios on the decline.

    No One will take his future returns and opportunistically redevelop toll bridges and roads to islands on the Gulf Coast of Florida after municipal causeways are obliterated by the third Cat4 in four years due to global warming, creating long term generational wealth for his family.

    Chi will take his newfound financial independence to Cornell where he becomes the Paul Krugman Professor of Economics and a huge benefactor of Cornell Hockey. He reconnects with Clot who is in the throes of a full blown wine addiction. In a cruel twist of fate Chi meets his demise in the passenger seat of Clot’s vehicle as it plummets into a gorge. He is honored with a touching center ice ceremony at the Big Red hockey season opener against Brown. Cornell is mercied 12-1 in the second period.

    Dentss becomes a world famous Tik Tok star for eight minutes by exploiting his claim to a previously unknown world record of posting ‘first’ concurrently on the most internet forums possible.

    In other matters:

    Markets are going market. You cannot control the timing nor short term the direction. You do control your ability to honestly assess your current position and set reasonable goals.

    The mass, immediate delivery and micro-analysis of any and all data does not matter yet will continue, causing near term distortions. It is mostly irrelevant. Use these distortions as opportunities to act on your longer term goals and views. This advice is as valid, if not moreso, for most areas of life not just markets.

    If you have children you have likely already seen how quickly they physically develop. The few years between middle school and the start of college will see even more extraordinary emotional development and independence. Embrace it. Remember your responsibility and greatest joy will be to send off a well rounded, fully capable, and well adjusted adult to society. Not a ‘mini-me’ version of your beliefs. Let them thrive, explore, and find their own pathways and you will be greatly rewarded and often unexpectedly and positively surprised.

    It is my pleasure to spend time each week with everyone here. Wishing you all a prosperous and happy 2023.

  49. OC1 says:
    January 1, 2023 at 3:20 pm

    Predictions:

    After years of complaining about disgusting overpriced crapshacks, FastEddie finally decides “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.

    He adopts a dozen un-housebroken stray cats, switches to an all-cabbage diet, starts chain-smoking chesterfields, and puts his house on the market.

    His wife, disgusted by their new living conditions and his new lifestyle, leaves him.

    But a bidding war breaks out for the house, and it goes for double the already overpriced ask. The buyer is Pumps (who confidently asserts “in NJ, house prices can never go down”).

    Eddie takes his half of the windfall and retires. But his new habits die hard, and he is eventually found dead on the floor of his Florida condo, clutching a “Trump 2020” flag, his partially cat-eaten body surrounded by dozens of empty Rheingold cans.

    SmallGovConservative contacts Phoenix to arrange for the discreet removal of an “object” from a “private” place. This inspires Phoenix to quit his hospital gig and open a specialty clinic (“Anus’s R Us”). The first customer at his new clinic is JJ.

    But sadly, Phoenix loses it all after being sued by his nurse for sexual harassment after making inappropriate comments during a procedure.

  50. Fast Eddie says:
    January 1, 2023 at 4:32 pm

    Lmao. Bravo all around!

  51. Libturd says:
    January 1, 2023 at 5:12 pm

    Yes, good stuff.

  52. Jim says:
    January 1, 2023 at 5:47 pm

    Great Reading. You guys have outdone yourselves! Good Luck in 2023 to everyone , I think we may need it.

  53. grim says:
    January 2, 2023 at 7:59 am

    Ok here goes the summary:

    1) While recession remains a major talk track, it never arrives due to positive economic impacts of the resolution of supply chain issues combined with consistent consumer spending and lower energy costs. Consumer spending remains elevated, through savings drawdown and borrowing, we hear “unsustainable” for months on end. This does not apply to Europe or other parts of the world, who do see outright recession. Not saying that we don’t see a mild negative print in there.

    2) Fed does not cut rates in 2023 due persistent wage pressures and job market strength. Where they stop, who knows, but a reversal seems like a real long shot given the current numbers. Even if we do see some negative monthly or quarterly numbers released, these will be looked at as outliers by the Fed. We see some reduction in labor market staffing pressures as the voluntary quit rates fall back into more manageable territory.

    3) Housing falls 10-15% additional in tertiary markets that saw huge run-ups during covid. Stronger markets see far shallower declines, ~5%, and a handful of metros see prices continue to increase through 2023. We continue to see persistent rent increases through 2023 as landlords continue to play catch up, or push for significant increases on new tenants.

    4) The sharp upticks in mortgage rates that correspond with Fed hike anticipation gets tempered as we hit peak rate. Mortgage rates fairly consistent through 2023. Continued rent increases and largely stagnant home price growth mean buyers will continue to be funneled into the housing market.

    5) We’re not all all done with the crypto blowup.

    6) Volatility back in style in a big way, with huge dips, huge reversals, huge recoveries followed by absurd levels of complacency. Volatility in 2nd order volatility – what the hell is this called again? Vega? Vera? Gamma? Grandma? Anyway, whatever the word is, we’re going to hear it on the news.

  54. Libturd says:
    January 2, 2023 at 11:20 am

    The term is Beta, Master.

  55. Ex says:
    January 2, 2023 at 12:47 pm

    Beta Max….oooops wrong decade

  56. grim says:
    January 2, 2023 at 1:18 pm

    Can’t be beta, that’s just vol of a single asset relative to market.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 2, 2023 at 1:39 pm

    Workers who stay put in their jobs are getting their heftiest pay raises in decades, a factor putting pressure on inflation.

    Wages for workers who stayed at their jobs were up 5.5% in November from a year earlier, averaged over 12 months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That was up from 3.7% annual growth in January 2022 and the highest increase in 25 years of record-keeping.

    Faster wage growth is contributing to historically high inflation, as some companies pass along price increases to compensate for their increased labor costs. Prices rose at their fastest pace in 40 years earlier in 2022. Inflation has cooled in recent months but remains high. Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring wage gains as they consider future interest-rate increases to slow the economy and bring down inflation.

    Employees who changed companies, job duties or occupations saw even greater wage gains of 7.7% in November from a year earlier. The prospect that employees might leave for bigger paychecks is a main reason companies are raising wages for existing employees. ”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/stay-for-pay-companies-offer-big-raises-to-retain-workers-11672607138?mod=hp_lead_pos1

    There are signs wage gains are beginning to ease as the tight labor market loosens a bit. Average hourly earnings were up 5.1% in November from a year earlier, slowing from a recent peak of 5.6% in March. Many analysts expect wage growth could cool further in coming months.

    “In industries with high demand for workers, “companies are prepared for wage growth to match inflation,” said Paul McDonald, senior executive director at Robert Half, a professional staffing company. “As inflation comes down, it will be more in line with what wage growth has been.”

    The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, climbed 7.1% in November from a year earlier, down from 7.7% in October. The pace built on a trend of moderating price increases since June’s 9.1% peak.”

    “Companies are using merit-pay increases to hold on to employees and minimize the potential productivity drain of recruiting and training new hires. Firms are budgeting more for merit-pay increases in 2023 than they have in 15 years, according to a Mercer survey of more than 1,000 companies.

    Daniel Powers, a recent college graduate, received a 10% year-end raise at a management consulting firm in Chicago, after starting out with a six-figure salary when he was hired in September.

    “They understand the realities of the market—there’s no false illusion of ‘we’re family here,’ ” Mr. Powers said of his firm’s management.”

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 2, 2023 at 1:42 pm

    How do you have a recession under this tight of a labor market? It’s simply impossible. WFH was the canary in the coal mine for coming inflation. When workers started calling the shots, it was a dead sign that wage inflation was coming. Wage inflation leads to inflation that is almost impossible to stop.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 2, 2023 at 1:42 pm

    How do you crash housing with tight of a labor market? You can’t….

  61. Grim says:
    January 2, 2023 at 4:03 pm

    $56-169k is the range? That’s absurd.

  62. Juice Box says:
    January 2, 2023 at 4:23 pm

    Grim – Sound like you are describing Rolling Volatility. We did see that last year, as measured by the VIX.

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/vix_volatility_index

  63. leftwing says:
    January 2, 2023 at 5:04 pm

    You may be looking for vanna or vega…..diving fairly deep into the weeds there….although vega is a nice tool to tell you how a position reacts to upward or downward moves in volatility, avoiding the unintended surprise of believing you have a, say, short position on but on a downward move vol explodes and your technical short position actually marks a loss….that defines sucks.

  64. Libturd says:
    January 2, 2023 at 6:24 pm

    I just wanted to say beta, master.

    I’m also hanging doors, but mine are a much larger PITA. Each needs to be cut to height, routed to fit hinges and bored for the knobs.

  65. grim says:
    January 2, 2023 at 6:57 pm

    Yeah, that’s tough work. Zero tolerance for error. A bit easier if you are reusing the existing jambs and can transfer from one slab to the other.

  66. BRT says:
    January 2, 2023 at 7:38 pm

    So yahoo brought comments back, but I have to believe they are heavily modded/filtered. Zero humorous comments. Used to be great for a laugh.

Comments are closed.